# ![@kurtsaltrichter Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2500179804.png) @kurtsaltrichter Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® posts on X about $spx, stocks, inflation, fed the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/interactions)
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- [--] Week [-------] -42%
- [--] Month [-------] +106%
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- [--] Year [---------] -51%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] -41%
- [--] Month [---] +158%
- [--] Months [---] +62%
- [--] Year [---] -20%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +0.35%
- [--] Month [------] +1.50%
- [--] Months [------] +11%
- [--] Year [------] +24%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2500179804/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  60.34% [stocks](/list/stocks)  11.49% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  4.6% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  3.45% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  2.3% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.72% [countries](/list/countries)  1.72%

**Social topic influence**
[$spx](/topic/$spx) #244, [stocks](/topic/stocks) #3742, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 9.2%, [fed](/topic/fed) 7.47%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 7.47%, [vix](/topic/vix) #504, [$vix](/topic/$vix) #151, [spx](/topic/spx) #382, [momentum](/topic/momentum) 4.6%, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) 4.02%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@stockstormx](/creator/undefined) [@nyse](/creator/undefined) [@leadlagreport](/creator/undefined) [@ycharts](/creator/undefined) [@georgesperron](/creator/undefined) [@mconcepts](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@marketsleuth](/creator/undefined) [@10009nyny](/creator/undefined) [@ploutoncapllc](/creator/undefined) [@agentkujan](/creator/undefined) [@thebluequant](/creator/undefined) [@onc187](/creator/undefined) [@stacadetsalumni](/creator/undefined) [@allthingssta](/creator/undefined) [@margincall4](/creator/undefined) [@deerjuice_xyz](/creator/undefined) [@bobby49sauce](/creator/undefined) [@wheels42069](/creator/undefined) [@staypredictable](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)](/topic/$gold) [FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)](/topic/$bar) [GameStop, Corp. (GME)](/topic/$gme) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The currency tailwind has reversed. A 10% decline in the greenback $USD $DXY means foreign investors earn less when converting back to their home currencies. What was once a boost is now a reason to look elsewhere. Most of that exposure is unhedged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042764993388743)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"That created a self-reinforcing cycle 🔄 Capital flowed in. Valuations rose. The dollar strengthened. A stronger dollar amplified returns for foreign investors. That cycle fed on itself for years. But it depended on a very specific set of tailwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042746592944301)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Even Treasuries are being questioned. Central banks have been net sellers of US Treasuries over the past year. Rising debt repeated shutdowns and growing scrutiny of institutional independence have added a policy risk premium that didnt exist before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042768709529707)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Latin America via $ILF Up 19% YTD and 50%+ over the last year outperforming the S&P [---]. Low correlation. True diversification not leveraged beta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042786325647733)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$VIX remains in an uptrend. Volatility is rising off the December lows holding trend support with RSI confirming multi-month highs. This points to a volatility regime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2020977298384593110)  2026-02-09T21:45Z 39.5K followers, 10.1K engagements


"80% of GameStop's market cap is cash. Theyve been closing unprofitable stores scaling the collectibles business and CEO Ryan Cohen was granted a 100% performance-based comp package earlier this year. If he can get the market cap of $GME to $100B he will personally receive $30B in stock. GameStop is about to lever up. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021330281202933882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021330281202933882"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021330281202933882)  2026-02-10T21:07Z 39.5K followers, 62.2K engagements


"The math changed. The cycle shifted. The risk profile looks worse than most of the last decade. Concentration risk is elevated. The opportunity set outside the U.S. is better right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042778570334302)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"South Korea via $EWY Up 28% YTD after a 90-100% gain in [----]. Relative strength vs U.S. equities trending higher with low correlation. Leadership not a late-cycle chase"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042790935105863)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Central banks are cutting Treasury holdings to diversify reserves and buy gold $GLD $BAR Theyre responding to U.S. deficits and policy risk. Not short-term moves. Gold up 80%. Dollar index down 10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042773398790241)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Small caps $IWM They move early when breadth improves. That process has started. We remain long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042798048747777)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"The $GOLD volatility index just triggered CAUTION. $GVZ at [--] above the [--] risk line. Likely an early warning of a near term sell off where you will have the opportunity to buy more. We cut to our minimum position size today and plan on scaling back in on weakness as long as the trend stays intact. Time will tell. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014837781701275674 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014837781701275674"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2014837781701275674)  2026-01-23T23:08Z 39.4K followers, 10.2K engagements


"$VEA Developed international stocks A weaker dollar boosts USD returns on foreign assets through translation. Also diversifies policy risk. Tradeoff: you inherit foreign growth and currency cycles not a pure hedge; it is exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978899842818344)  2026-01-29T20:56Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$SLV Silver It can run harder in dollar-down phases because it is both monetary and industrial. Tradeoff: much higher volatility than gold whipsaws are normal not a bug"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978912161521861)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$XLE Energy. Dollar down plus firmer commodity pricing is direct fuel for energy earnings. Also energy is one of the fastest inflation transmission channels. Tradeoff: commodity-driven volatility drawdowns can be violent position size is everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978931161633153)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$XLI $XLF $XLB Industrials benefit from global demand and export competitiveness. Financials can benefit from nominal growth but watch the curve and credit. Materials are direct beneficiaries of hard asset inflation. Tradeoff: cyclicals break when growth breaks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978935116857791)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"The $SPX closed the week in negative dealer gamma. When gamma is negative dealers sell weakness and buy strength"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2017384042191057238)  2026-01-30T23:46Z 39.4K followers, 29.6K engagements


"Americans arent moving anymore. Moves are down more than 50% since [----]. High rates and locked-in mortgages keep workers stuck. That means labor cant flow to where the jobs are. When workers cant move growth eventually caps out even in hot cities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2017679281342595511)  2026-01-31T19:20Z 39.5K followers, 169.9K engagements


"The 10Y2Y curve is accelerating. Post-inversion steepening just printed new cycle highs around +0.74. That move didnt come from falling short rates. It came from long rates staying sticky while growth expectations roll. This is late-cycle behavior. Equities celebrating ATHs while the curve steepens like this is a mismatch. The bond market is pricing stress that stocks havent acknowledged yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018433008097808547 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018433008097808547"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2018433008097808547)  2026-02-02T21:15Z 39.4K followers, 23.3K engagements


"The dollar tried to bounce. It failed. $DXY rejected cleanly at former support near [---] then accelerated lower. That level flipped from floor to ceiling textbook behavior in a downtrend. Now youre sitting near multi-year lows with momentum washed out. RSI is trying to turn but price hasnt earned it yet. A weak dollar feeds straight into commodities inflation math and global risk appetite. Dollar down pressure up elsewhere. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018448108414243321 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018448108414243321"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2018448108414243321)  2026-02-02T22:15Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$VIX churned sideways through the Fed and early Mag-7 earnings briefly tagging [--] before fading. Still closed higher on the week even as the $SPX finished up. RSI is trending higher and VIX relative to front-month futures is turning up. Volatility is getting a bid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2018458917173354579)  2026-02-02T22:58Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"And just like that $SPX is back in negative gamma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2018816747256848535)  2026-02-03T22:39Z 39.5K followers, 13.2K engagements


"The 10Y3M yield curve is re-steepening again just like it did before and into [----] [----] and [----]. COVID liquidity and fixed-rate mortgages are stretching the time to hit the economy. They didnt cancel the outcome. This has front-run every major market drawdown of the last [--] years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020621158527249 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020621158527249"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019020621158527249)  2026-02-04T12:10Z 39.5K followers, 110.2K engagements


"The FebMar $VIX calendar spread is breaking. After a sharp expansion its now compressing with repeated downside wicks. Thats hedging demand showing up. When the front of the vol curve stops confirming risk rises. Equity upside shrinks and drawdowns come faster"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019149629489659991)  2026-02-04T20:42Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Drawdown in software stocks is approaching [----] bear market levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019172887718981863)  2026-02-04T22:15Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Making sense of liquidity volatility and the S&P [---]. A client asked me why the S&P [---] tracked the Feds balance sheet so closely after [----] and why that relationship appears to have weakened since [----]. That question matters more than most realize 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810678002069695)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements


"From [----] through [----] the relationship was clear: When the Fed expanded its balance sheet liquidity increased and stocks go up. When the balance sheet contracted volatility rose and stocks sold off. QE helped stocks. QT hurt them. Easy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810683173667277)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"This wasnt coincidence. Supportive Fed policy created high-liquidity environments that favored risk assets while declining liquidity consistently coincided with volatility spikes and sharp equity drawdowns. It was structural not narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810688794014042)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Since the late-2022 market lows that relationship has started to break down. The Feds balance sheet peaked near $9T in early [----] and has steadily declined to just over $6.5T today. Yet stocks keep bouncing back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810694468964732)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Since October [----] stocks sell offs have been brief. Most lasted weeks not quarters or years. The worst occurred in summer [----] and spring [----] and both were followed by fast V-shaped recoveries to new highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810700257099834)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Strong equity rallies almost always followed short-lived spikes in volatility measured by the $VIX Those volatility spikes appear to be a key input into the liquidity dynamics driving the S&P 500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810716962992416)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Volatility spikes reset positioning. After those spikes capital flows aggressively into short-volatility strategies including put-writing and systematic vol compression trades. That activity creates an artificial liquidity tailwind for equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810719953563720)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"This support is mechanical not fundamental. When hedge funds dealers or bank trading desks are short volatility they must hedge that exposure. The hedge is long equity. Short volatility forces buying pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810722721743024)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"This dynamic has played out repeatedly: Volatile [----] favorable short-vol environment in [----] Volatile [----] short-vol dominance in [----] Volatile [----] powerful rebound driven by short-vol in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810725196452202)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"In each case volatility flushed positioning. Then short-vol strategies stepped in suppressing realized volatility and mechanically supporting equity prices. Stocks didnt rally because fundamentals suddenly improved. They rallied because positioning required it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810737410256964)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Low liquidity + high leverage = amplifies price action. Moves become overstated in both directions and markets grow more sensitive to volatility shocks rather than economic fundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810746906153137)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Thats the setup heading into early [----]. No Fed expansion. Heavy reliance on derivatives. Elevated leverage. Liquidity that can disappear quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810751305912474)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"This doesnt guarantee an immediate drawdown. But it does mean volatility risk is higher than index levels imply. Markets are being supported by positioning not policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810754170667428)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"In this environment fundamentals still matter but timing and structure matter more. Volatility behavior positioning and liquidity conditions will drive outcomes faster than narratives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810757828030891)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@georges_perron Yupp and one of the many reasons why we are less than 18% exposed to the US stocks right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019918452773806541)  2026-02-06T23:37Z 39.4K followers, [---] engagements


"The yield curve is in a late-cycle holding pattern. 10Y3M and 10Y2Y are pushing higher post-inversion consistent with higher-for-longer policy softer growth momentum and easing inflation pressure after weak jobs data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2020969722607468896)  2026-02-09T21:15Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@mConcepts_ I was thinking earlier how disappointed I would be if they just convert to a $BTC treasury company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021338241421672501)  2026-02-10T21:39Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"None of that screams collapse. These were disappointments not disasters. But with stocks near highs markets have zero tolerance for a growth scare. Another weak report becomes a headwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021353995969888656)  2026-02-10T22:42Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Investors are especially sensitive to labor data because were in a "no hire no fire" environment. That can change fast. If unemployment drifts toward 5% consumer spending risk rises quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021354000323645755)  2026-02-10T22:42Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Bottom line: despite the AI obsession stable growth has held up. Soft labor data last Thursday helped drive a broad market selloff. Tomorrows number matters more than headlines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021354003381223458)  2026-02-10T22:42Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"TOO HOT 150k jobs UE 4.0% wages 4.0% y/y This outcome pushes June cuts off the table and raises the odds of no rate cuts in [----]. The Fed stays on pause. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021354006715461991 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021354006715461991"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021354006715461991)  2026-02-10T22:42Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi Unbelievably detailed analysis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2021365652997464105)  2026-02-10T23:28Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$IEMG Emerging markets While I prefer country-specific ETFs the bigger winner when the dollar weakens because EM funding stress eases and local assets translate up in USD terms. Tradeoff: higher volatility political risk and sharper drawdowns when USD rips higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978903936446912)  2026-01-29T20:56Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$RSP Equal-weight S&P [---]. If the economy runs hot leadership often broadens beyond the mega caps. RSP expresses that without needing perfect sector picking. Tradeoff: more cyclical tilt more mid-cap exposure can lag in mega cap momentum phases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978926426325271)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$XLY Consumer discretionary. Dollar down can support multinational discretionary names through foreign demand and translation. Tradeoff: discretionary is rate sensitive. If inflation forces yields up multiples compress fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978928556978509)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$VIX futures calendar spreads briefly flipped into inversion. Thats a short-lived risk-off signal showing a surge in demand for near-term protection. While it didnt hold these flashes are typical of a volatility regime where stress appears fast and fades just as quickly. Expect choppier conditions and sharper volatility spikes going forward. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020995633104982374 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020995633104982374"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2020995633104982374)  2026-02-09T22:58Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Lets simplify it. If stocks earn 8% And Treasuries pay 3% Youre earning a 5% premium to take risk. Thats attractive. But thats not where we are today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2022337424022749530)  2026-02-13T15:49Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Right now: S&P [---] $SPX total EPS = $294 S&P [---] index level = [----] So the earnings yield is: [---] [----] = 4.24% Thats what the entire market is generating in profits relative to its price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2022337426447073431)  2026-02-13T15:49Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$BAR $GLD Gold as a currency alternative. When the dollar weakens gold often reprices higher in nominal terms and can protect purchasing power. Tradeoff: no cash flow can chop for long stretches position sizing matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978907434525114)  2026-01-29T20:56Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$DBC Broad commodities basket. Dollar down usually pushes a wide range of commodity prices higher which matters because commodities feed CPI through the input chain. Tradeoff: roll yield and energy weight can dominate returns depending on the cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2016978915579801714)  2026-01-29T20:57Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"$VIX is oversold which usually lines up with "calling" an oversold equity market. The $SPX uptrend has taken some damage. Higher lows faster rebounds in vol. This still looks like complacency to me and the VIX could be coiling. Worth keeping an eye on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019866192194810367)  2026-02-06T20:10Z 39.5K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Can the market hold up if tech keeps breaking Last week was a mini stress test. Nasdaq dropped 2% yet the $SPX slipped just -0.1%. The reason the rest of the market carried the load. $RSP gained 2.1% and 8/11 SPDRs finished higher. History says this usually fails. When tech rolls over hard diversification doesnt help. In [----] and early [----] $QQQ drawdowns of 10%23% dragged RSP down 13%16%. But theres one exception that matters. Summer [----]. Tech sold off on soft growth data and rising inflation a mild stagflation impulse. Expensive growth cracked value and cyclicals held up. QQQ fell 12.5%."  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2020867867827147240)  2026-02-09T14:30Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The $SPX is back in negative gamma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2022136127181000843)  2026-02-13T02:29Z 39.5K followers, 20K engagements


"First rates trended lower for nearly [--] years. That long steady decline boosted valuations. Rates may come down from here but they remain well above where they were a decade ago. Lower future rates are not the same tailwind as falling rates from much higher levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042749789044930)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Fourth corporate profits took a larger share of the economy than wages. Lower rates and lower taxes alone accounted for nearly half of U.S. profit growth over [--] years. Those tailwinds are fading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042758878036256)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Risk has become highly concentrated. 55% of S&P [---] $SPX $SPY returns over the last [--] years came from just [--] stocks. The top ten now make up about 40% of the index"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042761168130092)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"So heres what we own. $RSP over $SPY When leadership narrows cap-weighted benchmarks stop telling the full story. Equal weight captures whats actually happening beneath the surface"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042781619630312)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"That creates a real puzzle. If the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet where is the liquidity coming from that continues to support equities If its not monetary policy something else must be filling the gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810705424404726)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Theres no single answer. Global markets are too complex for one source of liquidity to explain everything. But when reviewing periods where stocks melted higher without Fed balance sheet expansion one pattern stands out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810713393656277)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"The pattern continued again. A volatile start to [----] was followed by renewed short-volatility flows after April helping stocks recover quickly despite no Fed balance sheet expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810732242829673)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"That distinction matters. Fed-driven liquidity is slower broader and more stable. Derivatives-driven liquidity is faster thinner and far more fragile. It works until positioning changes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810739981255048)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Without a Fed balance sheet backstop derivatives markets and speculators now play a larger role in setting liquidity conditions. That directly impacts how far and how fast markets move when headlines hit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2019810744028803485)  2026-02-06T16:29Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Commodities and gold. Supply constraints in energy and metals remain unresolved. Demand from electrification defense and data centers keeps tightening physical markets. Gold is moving because confidence in the bond-currency system is fading. $GLD $BAR $PDBC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042802251436523)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Every time we see an inverted yield curve paired with a flattening Fed funds rate the U.S. economy is heading into a recession. When the Fed starts cutting rates and the yield curve flips positive we're on the brink of a recession and a major market crash. This market currently has an 85% correlation to the summer of [----]. This time is no different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1827009671065940368)  2024-08-23T15:47Z 39.5K followers, 435K engagements


"$SPY is still making highs but the structure is doing the talking. Each blue line marks a momentum washout that "should" have led to downside follow-through. Instead price snaps right back. Thats systematic dip-buying not expanding participation. When these resets stop resolving higher the downside wont be gradual. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019851094675845273 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019851094675845273"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019851094675845273)  2026-02-06T19:10Z 39.5K followers, 33.1K engagements


"Since the GFC U.S. equities delivered returns far faster than the real economy. Stocks compounded at multiples of GDP growth. Foreign investors more than 3Xd their exposure to U.S. stocks over the past decade pushing total holdings above $20 trillion. Mostly unhedged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042744416149909)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"To be clear: I am not bearish on U.S. stocks. But the conditions that powered U.S. dominance are giving foreign investors a reason to look elsewhere. And they are. They own 20% of U.S. equities. $20 trillion. Even a small reallocation drives what were seeing now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042775697260603)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"The conditions that powered U.S. markets for over a decade are fading. Capital is rotating out. Most investors arent paying attention. Heres whats happening and where the money is going 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042742314754079)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [----] engagements


"If you enjoyed this thread join 4000+ advisors and investors who read my weekly Report 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/ https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2023042805455819176)  2026-02-15T14:32Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements


"AI enthusiasm has been the main driver of 2025s rally. NVDA alone accounted for 2.3% of S&P 500s YTD return. Add $MSFT $META $AVGO $PLTR and you get 5.5% of the entire indexs YTD return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1960743906091397361)  2025-08-27T16:39Z 35.7K followers, [---] engagements


"This isnt about whether $NVDA misses (they probably wont). Its about whether the AI-driven capex boom continues. If it doesnt expect: 1.Mega-cap weight declines 2.Capex cuts 3.Lower S&P earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1960743930347315507)  2025-08-27T16:39Z 35.7K followers, [---] engagements


"That trifecta would hurt the market regardless of what the Fed does or stagflation risks. AI capex is the hidden engine of growth and its all levered to NVDAs earnings narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1960743933941621116)  2025-08-27T16:39Z 35.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Bottom line: NVDA isnt just another stock. Its the linchpin of the AI trade the Mag Seven stimulus and the S&P 500s lofty earnings estimates. October earnings season will be critical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1960743937569681646)  2025-08-27T16:39Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The #1 question I am getting from new clients right now: "Do we buy at all-time highs or wait for a dip" I dont lean on seasonality often but with a 40% probability that September is red the risk/reward says its worth waiting for a pullback or at the very least DCAing into smaller dips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1961160145330991471)  2025-08-28T20:13Z 36.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Last fall Powell cut rates as breakeven inflation trended lower. Today 5-year breakevens are pushing back toward their highs yet markets are still pricing in another cut. The Fed is facing a delicate policy dilemma. Cutting next month could spark runaway inflation like we saw in the 1970s. On the flip side choosing not to cut could break the labor market and tip the economy into a recession. The bond market is currently pricing in the latter scenario with a yield curve that is bull-steepening rather than twisting-steeper which is what wed expect if "Fed error" risk was leaning toward runaway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1961430471931203758)  2025-08-29T14:07Z 36.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The Fed is walking into a policy mistake September seasonality is no friend and the VIX looks like a ball held underwater. We trimmed some of our winners into strength and are waiting for dips to add to small-caps and industrials. This game is about Q1 [----] not September. Check it out 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/the-feds-tightrope-policy-mistake https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/the-feds-tightrope-policy-mistake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1961844365988339970)  2025-08-30T17:32Z 37K followers, 17.6K engagements


"The Fed is walking a tightrope. Cut too early or too much and risk 70s-style inflation. Hold rates and risk breaking the labor market and tipping the economy into recession. Either way the margin for error is razor-thin. $SPX 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210732847542578)  2025-08-31T17:47Z 36.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Last fall Jerome Powell cut rates when 5-year breakevens were trending lower. Fast forward to now theyre trending towards new highs. Cutting here isnt "data dependent" its reckless. $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210739327811685)  2025-08-31T17:47Z 35.8K followers, [---] engagements


"September has been red 60% of the time over the last decade often with bigger drawdowns than other months. With $SPX near all-time highs the risk/reward skews toward patience but not necessarily a reason to substantially reduce equity exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210755035422986)  2025-08-31T17:47Z 36.5K followers, [---] engagements


"The $VIX looks like a ball being held underwater. VIX is coiled inside a broadening triangle. The question here is how violent will it be when it pops We think it will be a buying opportunity. Thats why we trimmed (a little) into strength. $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210762937569777)  2025-08-31T17:47Z 36.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Dealer flows are suppressing vol. $SPX gamma is positive keeping the $VIX artificially calm. But when gamma flips hedging turns from suppressing to amplifying volatility. Thats when air pockets can open and algos drive waterfall selling. No panic yet but keep an 👁"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210770957062361)  2025-08-31T17:47Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Industrials $XLI (+16% YTD) are already leading all $SPX sectors YTD. Consolidating near highs RSI strong relative strength ticking higher. Quiet leadership now but a spot were looking to add more concentration to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210788749324397)  2025-08-31T17:48Z 36.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Big picture: $SPX $SPY trades 21.25x. Best case EPS = [----]. Worst case EPS = [----]. RSI divergence is the yellow flag and is something to keep an 👁 on. When dislocation comes thats when our dry powder goes to work and if it takes a little longer well DCA in on red days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210795724427596)  2025-08-31T17:48Z 36.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Most will panic when vol spikes. We trimmed (a little) and we have a PLAN to reload into $IWM $TNA $MDY $FESM $FMDE $ARKK $TARK $XLI when the market gives us an opportunity. If youre positioning for [----] youre already ahead of the herd. Subscribe 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/ https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210799914520990)  2025-08-31T17:48Z 36.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Bear Chart Porn Incoming: Job openings keep leading the stock market lower. Every cycle tells the same story: labor weakens stocks follow. [----]. [----]. And now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962824326551421070)  2025-09-02T10:26Z 36.5K followers, 17K engagements


"The Rising Wedge in $ES_F we flagged weeks ago just broke lower. RSI divergence confirmed the risk and now [----] is the line in the sand. $SPX $SPY Bulls need a quick reclaim or downside momentum could accelerate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962973835298230413)  2025-09-02T20:20Z 36.4K followers, [----] engagements


"CTAs are pinned at max long in $SPX. Upside fuel is limited while any drawdown can flip into forced selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963046686638404084)  2025-09-03T01:09Z 36.7K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Market breadth just hit resistance again. Market breadth just stalled in the same 7080% resistance zone that capped rallies in [----] [----] and [----]. % of S&P [---] $SPX stocks above their 200-day MAs has rolled over and the NYSE Advance-Decline line isnt confirming new highs. That divergence could be a warning for bulls. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963186715889209706)  2025-09-03T10:26Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"Junk bond yields just dropped to a 9-month low at 6.45% with high-yield credit spreads tightening to 2.75%. Thats not a risk-off signal: it shows strong demand for riskier corporate debt. As long as spreads stay contained equity selloffs are less likely to spiral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963201817266860180)  2025-09-03T11:26Z 36.7K followers, 12.1K engagements


"Thats because mathematically tariffs cant cause inflation. They can cause short-term price spikes but given CPI is calculated based on the rate of change unless tariffs are going up every single month across the board inflation will go down not up over the long term. *WALLER: TARIFFS AREN'T GOING TO CAUSE LONG-RUN INFLATION *WALLER: TARIFFS AREN'T GOING TO CAUSE LONG-RUN INFLATION"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963225434805375156)  2025-09-03T12:59Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Core PCE is back at 2.9%. Inflation isnt dead its re-accelerating. GDP just printed 3.3%. Thats not a backdrop for rate cuts. If the Fed forces the cut through its likely the only cut before Powells term ends on May [--] [----]. Remember: the market wants a rate-cutting cycle. The data says no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963309524288147699)  2025-09-03T18:34Z 36.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Tomorrows jobs report is the most important data print of the month. At $SPX 6400+ markets arent priced for labor market risk at all. The outcome will decide if were Too Hot Just Right or Too Cold. Heres what each scenario means for investors 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616117756235904)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 37K followers, 36K engagements


"Scenario 1: Too Hot 🔥 Definition: 250k job adds unemployment 4.0% wages 4.2% y/y. This outcome throws Septembers rate cut into doubt and lowers odds of multiple cuts in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616120755064988)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.5K followers, 35.7K engagements


"Too Hot Market Reaction 🔥 $SPX drops 1% Cyclicals and small caps lag $IWM Defensives and big tech hold up better 10-yr yield surges up to +20 bps Dollar Index rallies 1% $UUP $GOLD sinks oil and industrials $XLI mixed. Broad risk-off tone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616124047880355)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.5K followers, 32.4K engagements


"Scenario 2: Just Right 🟢 Definition: 25k250k job adds unemployment 4.0%4.3% wages 4.1% y/y. A stable labor market keeps Septembers cut on track. This is the "Goldilocks" outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616127957045278)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 37K followers, 28.7K engagements


"Just Right Market Reaction 🟢 $SPX rallies 1% or more led by cyclicals and mega-cap tech $MAGS $XLK All [--] sectors higher 10-yr yield steady dollar modestly firmer Commodities flat $USCI A 150k print is the sweet spot: stable growth + rate cut path"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616131186385069)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 37K followers, 26.7K engagements


"Scenario 3: Too Cold ❄ Definition: 25k job adds unemployment 4.4%. Weak data will spark recession fears that stocks havent priced in at current levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616134126514687)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.7K followers, 24.5K engagements


"Too Cold Market Reaction ❄ Short term (day(s)): "bad is good" bounce on hopes for [--] cuts in [----] Medium term (week(s)): growth fears weigh $SPX rolls over 10-yr yield sinks toward 4% Dollar drops 1%+ $UUP $GOLD rallies hard on dollar weakness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616136983101755)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.7K followers, 31.6K engagements


"The stakes couldnt be higher. Too Hot kills cuts Too Cold sparks recession fears Just Right powers a rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616139327521026)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.6K followers, 23.6K engagements


"If youre thinking through how tomorrows jobs report will shape Fed policy yields the dollar and stocks youre already ahead of most investors. I break scenarios like this down every week in my report. Join over 3000+ investors and advisors👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/ https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616141714116949)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 36.6K followers, 22.5K engagements


"For the first time since [----] there are more unemployed Americans (7.24M) than job openings (7.18M). The labor market is no longer tight. This flips the Feds narrative on wage pressure and hiring demand. The jobs report tomorrow is critical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963779435754066068)  2025-09-05T01:41Z 36.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Good morning to everyone but the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963907252219216041)  2025-09-05T10:09Z 36.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Stocks should pop on the bad is good news for now. With dealers in positive gamma volatility will stay pinned (for now). Youll probably get your rate cut this month but its likely the only cut of [----]. Next up: 9/11 CPI near 3% which should slash rate cut expectations from [--] to [--]. Too Cold Market Reaction ❄ Short term (day(s)): "bad is good" bounce on hopes for [--] cuts in [----] Medium term (week(s)): growth fears weigh $SPX rolls over 10-yr yield sinks toward 4% Dollar drops 1%+ $UUP $GOLD rallies hard on dollar weakness Too Cold Market Reaction ❄ Short term (day(s)): "bad is good" bounce on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963977844264219054)  2025-09-05T14:49Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@market_sleuth @NYSE @leadlagreport I know I had to turn and burn. Flew in that morning was back in Minneapolis that night. I got a pregnant wife at home"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965062229331730701)  2025-09-08T14:38Z 36.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Right now the jobs market is still solid: Jobless claims under 250k Payroll growth is still positive Openings close to 7M The real issue is momentum. Hiring is cooling and thats usually the step that comes before layoffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965076243818086457)  2025-09-08T15:34Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Trouble zones to monitor ⚠ Claims above 260k = first cracks 300k+ on 4-week avg = contraction risk Unemployment over 4.5% = clear deterioration with 5% in play JOLTS 6.5M = companies freezing hiring These would confirm real stress in the labor market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965076247358108004)  2025-09-08T15:34Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Market consequences if labor rolls over: $SPX could lose 1015% initially as multiples compress below 20x. If the sell-off runs deep a 30%+ drawdown would not be surprising at all. High valuations leave little safety net for stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965076253024616858)  2025-09-08T15:34Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Sector and factor roadmap in a downturn: Steer clear 🚫: consumer discretionary $XLY $XRT and parts of comm services $XLC Lean into ✅: staples $XLP utilities $XLU healthcare $XLV Defensive tilt 📊: $USMV $SPLV dividend-heavy tech $TDIV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965076255868370996)  2025-09-08T15:34Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"BlackRocks latest asset scorecard highlights key [----] market dynamics. The cross-asset message Watch Gold. Risk-off leadership + late-cycle warnings. Lets break it down 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965187380480201039)  2025-09-08T22:55Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Gold $GLD leads YTD up mid-30s% with essentially no drawdown. On the flip-side $SPY saw nearly a 20% drawdown in Q1. That gap gives gold a far stronger Sharpe ratio vs equities in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965187383995007175)  2025-09-08T22:55Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Golds strength reflects a "triple threat" Yield curve inversion bull steepening Tariff and trade war risks disrupting supply chains Inflation reversing higher in H225 This trifecta fuels gold demand and central bank buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965187387258290457)  2025-09-08T22:55Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Remember NFTs Me neither"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965348816091234663)  2025-09-09T09:37Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@10009nyny @NYSE @leadlagreport Appreciate it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965403306521735271)  2025-09-09T13:13Z 36.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Lumber relative to Gold has collapsed When the economy is healthy materials like lumber rise on strong housing demand fueled by growth and low rates. This breakdown signals stress ahead lumber weakness + gold strength often foreshadow higher equity volatility. Bottom line: housing is in for a sustained downtrend and stocks could be next. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965436542995816512)  2025-09-09T15:26Z 36.9K followers, [----] engagements


"S&P [---] $SPX futures are pressing into the apex of a rising wedge. Price has been grinding higher but RSI has been trending lower since July a textbook case of bearish divergence. A breakout is possible but risk of a downside resolution is rising. $ES_F"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965518815271194801)  2025-09-09T20:52Z 36.8K followers, 21.7K engagements


"The CNN Fear and Greed Index is flashing a warning. A bearish head-and-shoulders pattern has formed with the neckline right at [--]. If it breaks below it signals rising risks of deteriorating sentiment that could spill over into markets. Red flag 🚩 Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965822032563822986)  2025-09-10T16:57Z 36.9K followers, 22.1K engagements


"GameStop $GME reported earnings yesterday. 20% top-line growth from Switch [--] launch $10B market cap / $8.7B cash Eyeing acquisitions in trading cards and online marketplaces This is definitely an intriguing long-term opportunity that is gaining momentum. I am not making a "call" here nor am I saying this stock will go 100X from here but 2-3X could be a reasonable expectation as the cash flow is improving and fundamentals are improving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965852477703803374)  2025-09-10T18:58Z 36.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Aged well 🎯 Now watch the September 11th CPI accelerate to 2.8-3%. Fed made a policy mistake Now watch the September 11th CPI accelerate to 2.8-3%. Fed made a policy mistake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1966153819081052547)  2025-09-11T14:56Z 36.7K followers, 28.7K engagements


"Opportunity 👇 BREAKING 🚨: Small Caps Investors now have the lowest allocation to Small Cap Stocks in history 👀 https://t.co/7GXlNj96uX BREAKING 🚨: Small Caps Investors now have the lowest allocation to Small Cap Stocks in history 👀 https://t.co/7GXlNj96uX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1966657299985965482)  2025-09-13T00:16Z 36.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@PloutonCapLLC I dont think its a bad idea. Allow companies to actually get work done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967575997638926397)  2025-09-15T13:07Z 36.9K followers, [--] engagements


"Look at PEG ratios across sectors. Tech trades near [---] one of the cheapest in the S&P [---] on a growth-adjusted basis. Thats not bubble territory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967612658678628794)  2025-09-15T15:33Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"The bubble is in AI-linked cap-ex. Firms like OpenAI and CoreWeave are spending billions on chips servers and data storage. That spending powers Mag [--] earnings. If it slows so will profits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967612662579388527)  2025-09-15T15:33Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Example: OpenAIs $300B pledge to $ORCL. Thats nearly its entire market cap and its bleeding cash. If financing dries up or adoption disappoints those orders evaporate and so do earnings tailwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967612666262024245)  2025-09-15T15:33Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Bottom line: AI isnt in a valuation bubble. Its in a cap-ex bubble. The Mag [--] rally lives or dies on the continuation of this unprecedented spend. If the firehose slows earnings fall and the S&P [---] feels it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967612669596459128)  2025-09-15T15:33Z 36.9K followers, [---] engagements


"FOMC Preview: Wednesday is set to deliver the first Fed rate cut of [----]. But the size of the cut is only half the story. What matters more is whether Powell signals the start of a cutting cycle or just a one-off "insurance cut." Heres how it plays out 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967949161674027320)  2025-09-16T13:50Z 37K followers, 11K engagements


"AI isnt in a valuation bubble. Its in a cap-ex bubble. The moment AI "stimulus" spend slows MAG7 $AVGO $ORCL and the rest of your AI stocks get hit. Its a daisy chain of claymore mines facing the same direction. Down. Dont let this blow up in your face. Have a plan for your downside. 👇 AI CapEx spending is skyrocketing: CapEx as % of operating cash flow for the largest AI spenders hit a record 72% in Q2 [----]. The percentage has DOUBLED over the last [--] years. Microsoft Google Meta Amazon and Oracle now deploying more than double their pre-2022 average https://t.co/Off5n1aDKV AI CapEx spending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1968146797122953561)  2025-09-17T02:55Z 37K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Bullish AI CapEx is EXPLODING: AI CapEx is now growing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22%. This is DOUBLE the overall CAGR of CapEx spend for S&P [---] companies. Furthermore AI now accounts for nearly 40% of S&P [---] CapEx spend. The AI Revolution is just getting https://t.co/sCk5potd7S AI CapEx is EXPLODING: AI CapEx is now growing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22%. This is DOUBLE the overall CAGR of CapEx spend for S&P [---] companies. Furthermore AI now accounts for nearly 40% of S&P [---] CapEx spend. The AI Revolution is just getting https://t.co/sCk5potd7S"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1968710736076554432)  2025-09-18T16:16Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"@agent_kujan @ycharts As of now everything else is supportive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970266832138314013)  2025-09-22T23:19Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"@the_blue_quant @ycharts Exactly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970266996705984759)  2025-09-22T23:20Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Investor sentiment is holding in the Greed Zone (low 60s) as Q3 closes but the Fear & Greed Index has been trending lower since July even as markets hit new highs. Bulls need a breakout above [--] to confirm momentum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970268518332420266)  2025-09-22T23:26Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"NVDA said it will pour $100B into OpenAI to build out [--] gigawatts of $NVDA powered computing capacity. Markets flipped from red to green on the headline with the $SPX finishing just shy of record highs. Why it matters: This isnt about quarterly profits. Its about a private-sector stimulus program where tech giants spend at levels normally reserved for governments. Cap-ex in AI infrastructure is now 4.5% of U.S. GDP. If that number feels unsustainable thats because the last time corporate spending hit this share of GDP was in the late 1990s. And we all know how that ended"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970512280799400416)  2025-09-23T15:35Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"The yield curve narrative has gone quiet in [----] but it shouldnt. The 10Y3M spread just completed a record 30-month inversion running from Nov [----] into early [----]. Only the Great Depression inversion lasted longer. Yet the economy is still humming fueling the belief that "this time is different." History says otherwise. In [----] the 10Y3M gave a false signal at [--] months inverted but a deeper inversion followed and the recession hit [--] months later. Today were staring at [--] months inverted in the 10Y1Y curve an outlier in both length and economic resilience. Heres the key: every major"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970970997370077557)  2025-09-24T21:57Z 37K followers, 20.3K engagements


"The rally hasnt sparked extreme retail euphoria but advisor optimism is flashing a yellow light. The Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears spread has climbed into the "reversal warning" zone as advisors grow far more bullish than individual investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971195711791481308)  2025-09-25T12:50Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Everyone debates the Fed jobs and inflation using data that gets revised months later. The real signals are already in the charts if you know where to look Here's a quick 🧵with charts on technical economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641418814050782)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"Instead of sifting through complex often-revised data releases you can analyze the trend in long-term charts of key data. It cuts through the noise and shows what is happening now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641426288288023)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"I reviewed four critical indicators shaping the outlook for the second half of 2025: Job openings vs. unemployed Continuing claims vs. unemployment rate Core PCE inflation Retail sales (control group)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641428599361984)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Jobs are weakening. Openings have dropped to multi-year lows while unemployed workers now outnumber available jobs a cyclically negative labor market development"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641431375884664)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Unemployment pressure is building. Continuing claims and the headline jobless rate are both near 4-year highs. Claims typically rise first leading to an increase in the unemployment rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641434991481192)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Inflation is re-accelerating. Core PCE cooled into mid-2024 but turned higher this year. With the Fed cutting rates again the risk is that renewed inflation will resurge instead of a smooth return to 2%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641438565023942)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Consumers are struggling. The retail sales control group (the cleanest look at real spending) has been trending lower since [----]. Weak consumption is a slow-moving headwind for growth. Consistent with elevated and likely underpriced risks to growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971641442616701272)  2025-09-26T18:22Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Unemployment pressure is building. Continuing claims and the headline jobless rate are both near 4-year highs. Claims typically rise first leading to an increase in the unemployment rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971687227810803714)  2025-09-26T21:24Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"Inflation is re-accelerating. Core PCE cooled into mid-2024 but turned higher this year. With the Fed cutting rates again the risk is that renewed inflation will resurge instead of a smooth return to 2%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971701322136043547)  2025-09-26T22:20Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"The government shutdown isnt likely to derail the larger bullish forces solid growth falling rates AI optimism and "contained" inflation. But if it drags on [--] weeks delayed data could leave the Fed flying blind and inject extra volatility into November and December"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973378877792628776)  2025-10-01T13:26Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"How federal agencies will respond to the government shutdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973652678820450352)  2025-10-02T07:34Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"The next real market drawdown wont be about inflation or the Fed. It will be about the labor market. If it cracks valuations reset fast. Heres the exact playbook to know when jobs data turns from support to risk and how stocks will reprice when it happens 👇🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872412577186221)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, 20.5K engagements


"Government data is messy right now due to the shutdown. When it reopens we may get a flood of delayed labor reports. That makes knowing the right warning levels even more important"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872418856055188)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Jobless Claims: Early warning = 260k Clear trouble = 300k+ on the 4-week average Crossing these levels historically marks a shift from a stable job market to one in contraction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872422173487322)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Jobless Claims Market Impact Claims above 260k would start to pressure equities. Above 300k usually coincides with falling consumer confidence and spending. The $SPX has historically dropped 1015% once claims break that trend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872426451956066)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Unemployment Rate: Early Warning level: 4.5% Once 4.6%+ hits 5% often follows Rising unemployment signals the cycle is losing strength"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872431694819510)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Unemployment Rate Market Impact When the unemployment rate moves past 4.5% markets reprice quickly. Valuations compress and earnings estimates fall. The $SPX often slides 1520% as investors price in a slowdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872435687526485)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"JOLTS Market Impact A JOLTS break below 6.5M is an early signal companies expect weaker demand. Markets tend to lead with risk-off trades growth multiples shrink small caps and cyclicals sell off first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872444671689004)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"Valuations Compress When Jobs Break Full-on labor deterioration has historically driven the $SPX from 20x forward earnings to sub-20x. In deeper recessions multiples fall further as earnings get cut"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872450065846467)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37K followers, [----] engagements


"Valuation Market Impact Mild deterioration can pull the $SPX down 1015%. Deeper job losses can trigger a 2030% drawdown. Severe recessions have pushed stocks 2535% lower as spending collapses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872454721290293)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37K followers, [---] engagements


"The labor market is not broken yet but momentum is fading. If it cracks it could turn a soft landing into a bear market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872458446057876)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"If you are tracking these labor market indicators and connecting them to market risk you are already ahead of most investors. Join [----] investors and advisors reading my weekly market report to stay prepared. Subscribe 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/ https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1973872461356937397)  2025-10-02T22:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy. First alert: 260k Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average Once claims cross these lines the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting a key risk for stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1974088553475834175)  2025-10-03T12:26Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal: Early warning: 4.5% Once it breaks 4.6% history shows 5% often follows When joblessness climbs past these levels the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1974103650743021841)  2025-10-03T13:26Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Valuation Market Impact Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P [---] down 1015% as multiples slip below 20x. Deeper job losses often trigger 2030% drawdowns. Severe recessions have historically driven 2535% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1974148950492872857)  2025-10-03T16:26Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of [----] for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1974783125243777307)  2025-10-05T10:26Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"9000 target on the $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1975224790840668371)  2025-10-06T15:41Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"🧵 The AI Bubble Debate Just Got Louder Over the past few weeks the Is AI in a bubble discussion has shifted from theory to evidence. Multi-billion-dollar financing loops between chipmakers and AI firms now echo the dot-com era. Lets unpack whats really happening. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1976271076343808083)  2025-10-09T12:58Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"3. The Real Problem: Adoption The AI trade has powered a near-3-year bull market. But regular businesses and consumers arent paying for AI yet. Billions in infrastructure are being built on the hope that demand will arrive later. Thats the weak link in this story"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1976271084438839619)  2025-10-09T12:58Z 37.1K followers, [---] engagements


"4. The Oracle Warning A new report from The Information revealed Oracle is losing money renting Nvidia chips. Thats a red flag for companies like CoreWeave that rely on the same model: buy compute rent it out profit. If math doesnt work the bubble thesis gains weight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1976271086506381818)  2025-10-09T12:58Z 37.1K followers, [---] engagements


"5. So Is AI a Bubble Not yet. But its acting like one. This isnt a valuation bubble its a capital expenditure bubble. Tech cap-ex is now 4.5% of U.S. GDP bigger than consumer spending. Thats pretty ridiculous. http://Pets.com http://Pets.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1976271088142156241)  2025-10-09T12:58Z 37.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Trimmed our $SQQQ hedge in half. Welcome to the chop where your process matters more than your cost basis. $SQQQ hedge is still on. The goal of this trade isnt to make money its to suppress the downside. We are in negative gamma. VolControl sell off has started CTAs are the next signal to watch. We are still very net long. $SQQQ hedge is still on. The goal of this trade isnt to make money its to suppress the downside. We are in negative gamma. VolControl sell off has started CTAs are the next signal to watch. We are still very net long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978106088420507887)  2025-10-14T14:30Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@ONC187 It's a small hedge to suppress our longs. We are still bullish on equities until our signal tells us to get out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978186871873196522)  2025-10-14T19:51Z 37.1K followers, [---] engagements


"😂 😂 😂 BREAKING: Scott Bessent has said stock market will not effect trade discussions with China. BREAKING: Scott Bessent has said stock market will not effect trade discussions with China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978494175457779972)  2025-10-15T16:12Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"U.S. Economy Grew 5% In Third Quarter - http://t.co/jaVBFGFX9T #Economics #Growth #Markets http://ow.ly/Gm9pa http://ow.ly/Gm9pa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/547463024081399809)  2014-12-23T18:45Z 26.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Great article on the @STACadetsAlumni President Joe Jansen '83 in the Saber @AllThingsSTA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/763495255270359040)  2016-08-10T22:00Z 26.9K followers, [--] engagements

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