#  @kieranwgoodwin Kieran Goodwin Kieran Goodwin posts on X about market, in the, fund, public the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::510811530/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -94% - [--] Month [-------] +741% - [--] Months [-------] +2,510% - [--] Year [-------] -5.80% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::510811530/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] +45% - [--] Months [--] +900% - [--] Year [--] +38% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::510811530/followers)  - [--] Week [------] -0.04% - [--] Month [------] +0.97% - [--] Months [------] +50% - [--] Year [------] +47% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::510811530/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [currencies](/list/currencies) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [financial services](/list/financial-services) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [market](/topic/market), [in the](/topic/in-the), [fund](/topic/fund), [public](/topic/public), [debt](/topic/debt), [if you](/topic/if-you), [pc](/topic/pc), [liquidity](/topic/liquidity), [nav](/topic/nav), [article](/topic/article) **Top assets mentioned** [Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)](/topic/$otf) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (OWL)](/topic/$owl) [GameStop, Corp. (GME)](/topic/$gme) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@dampedspring @boazweinstein While I agree that the recovery rate of blue chip credits would be higher than current prices I don't think the probablity of default is high enough to offset the greater bid/offer and state tax implications to own IG corps" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1709586976989389074) 2023-10-04T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Knightlegcap Private Credit is the Chuck Norris of Capital Markets" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1755019679154704415) 2024-02-07T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ReustleMatt 100% agree with your take. If we get a big wave of defaults market might get overwhelmed and you probably get some "good company bad balance sheet" situations" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1775552283977080962) 2024-04-03T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A new day and a new knife fight: Does anyone have a name for this new "technology" (my favorite euphemism) to get around the prohibition of incurring new debt to repay debt As this violence continues won't losers start eschewing the credit market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/creditor-betrayals-pit-invesco-against-bain-in-bankruptcy-rumble https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/creditor-betrayals-pit-invesco-against-bain-in-bankruptcy-rumble" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1780965863128006954) 2024-04-18T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SethLevine2 6x levered middle market PE sponsored company with 50% LTV using adjusted EBITDA is S+600 best best case . [---] is very fair . zero shot of 350" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1788230834048151709) 2024-05-08T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@amadeopanoptes IMHO $ARCC is a buy if it traded down with the group. But BDC's can trade down hard/fast but $ARCC at less than 80% of NAV is good LT buy" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1821257274108919995) 2024-08-07T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@hsri07 agreed very hard to short BDCs but just pointing out that $PSEC needs to be on your radar if you are a credit investor" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1821261080636878905) 2024-08-07T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Macdonald3421 less than $500mm market cap with net income decreasing" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1828822613977977192) 2024-08-28T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@FoamOnTheRunway aka fiat currency" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1962910170377273516) 2025-09-02T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Barons agreeing with me that $NMFC attempted portfolio sale is HUGE TELL for PC. They dont mention that many of their loans are club deals owned by other BDCs. New Mountain Asset Sale Shapes Up as a Test of Private Credit Market https://www.barrons.com/articles/-private-credit-market-valuations-new-mountain-f06b9639st=h6g7Df https://www.barrons.com/articles/-private-credit-market-valuations-new-mountain-f06b9639st=h6g7Df" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2006741739047153681) 2026-01-01T14:58Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@dunnde @Roshan_Gudapati fair point but doesn't $OBDC get crushed if new owners are all sellers" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1991177455453745237) 2025-11-19T16:11Z 14K followers, [--] engagements "@Roshan_Gudapati if they gate indefinitely redemptions on all of their "semi-liquid" funds will go thru the roof" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1991177679349936130) 2025-11-19T16:12Z 13.2K followers, [---] engagements "Another one-off cockroach https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/private-credit-firms-to-swap-debt-for-equity-in-stressed-48forty https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/private-credit-firms-to-swap-debt-for-equity-in-stressed-48forty" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1991618904393937095) 2025-11-20T21:25Z 13.4K followers, 141.6K engagements "My fears are grounded. They grew from $0 to $150bn AUM in credit by being aggressive in lending standards. Turns out borrowers like the tight spreads and loose convenants Blue Owl Is Having a Rough Year. Its Co-CEO Says Investors Fears Are Ungrounded. https://www.barrons.com/articles/blue-owl-co-ceo-fears-ungrounded-7bc0a3e5st=NsPKew https://www.barrons.com/articles/blue-owl-co-ceo-fears-ungrounded-7bc0a3e5st=NsPKew" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1991664641961808044) 2025-11-21T00:27Z 13.4K followers, 60.1K engagements "Great post . Unfortunately I think soon enough the Private Wealth Channel is going to become very familiar with GATES . Interval funds are gating already; non-traded BDCs next Investors hate it when funds gate redemptions. Fund managers know this and will only use this option as the last resort. Before redemptions are gated managers will do a number of other things (and it's on you LPs if you miss them in financial reports): https://t.co/K04HX2AegY Investors hate it when funds gate redemptions. Fund managers know this and will only use this option as the last resort. Before redemptions are" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1992362905225084946) 2025-11-22T22:41Z 13.9K followers, 23.9K engagements "Agree that BREIT is exception . SREIT still gated. But REIT structure is way better for private structure since assets bought can appreciate and be worth more than their mark . marks can be conservative . in PC loans are marked at par but cant be worth more than par and will almost always be bid much less than par if GP seeks a bid . PC marks are aggressive from day 1" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1992628747325850057) 2025-11-23T16:18Z 13.8K followers, [---] engagements "MY ISSUES WITH PAY IN KIND INTEREST (1) Lets be clear: PIK INTEREST IS JUST WELL PAY YOU LATER (MAYBE). Its not cash its the borrower delaying payments while your loan balance quietly GROWS. (2) In traditional credit markets PIK = RED FLAG. Only the weakest borrowers used it. You would only buy a PIK bond/loan if you LOVED the credit or were buying at a big discount. (3) Private Credit shows up and says: PIK is a feature not a bug. PIK interest has been NORMALIZED which is good for borrowers good for PC managers (bigger universe of borrowers) but bad for investors/lenders. (4) I view EVERY PC" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1995853266693800355) 2025-12-02T13:51Z 13.9K followers, 29.3K engagements "Pre [----] Distressed investing was like the Godfather's Mafia . definitely brutal but a code existed . honor among theives Now the landscape is like Mexican Cartels . complete blood sport Doesn't bode well for recovercies in next distressed cycle. https://www.ft.com/content/b934d78b-6662-494a-8eb9-7a956f198465 https://www.ft.com/content/b934d78b-6662-494a-8eb9-7a956f198465" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1999576299824611679) 2025-12-12T20:25Z 14K followers, 36.8K engagements "Yes . CZR bankruptcy changed the game. Then during commodity/energy bankruptcies that followed the bigger buy side players started playing Bully ball with their balance sheets effectively priming smaller guys. Pre Dodd Frank dealers had massive back books and somewhat enforced the honor code. But the lawyers now are motivated to come up with more creative (slimy to some) tactics to pit creditors against each other" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1999605187091329143) 2025-12-12T22:20Z 14K followers, [---] engagements "SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2003126331320438864) 2025-12-22T15:31Z 14K followers, [---] engagements "SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2003127305841823848) 2025-12-22T15:35Z 14K followers, [---] engagements "This cohort represents some of the BEST SaaS companies. The market is WORRIED that the industry's 80% gross margins are not sustainable since AI agentic (autonomous) software is willing to price at 45% margins. PARADIGM SHIFT . BAD FOR PRIVATE CREDIT Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17% $WDAY Workday: -21% $CRM Salesforce: -26% $ADBE Adobe: -26% $CSU Constellation Software: -29% $DOCU Docusign: -31% $NOW ServiceNow: -35% $MNDY Monday: -41% $TEAM Atlassian: -46% $HUBS Hubspot: -51% https://t.co/1cAIbxEbrI Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17% $WDAY" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2011838940274180257) 2026-01-15T16:32Z 14K followers, 11K engagements "SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2003127452357349769) 2025-12-22T15:36Z 14.1K followers, 17.8K engagements "DUDE JOSH HARRIS is DOWN on SEMI-LIQUID EVERGREEN NON-TRADED BDCs What else do you need to know The GATING is going to be MASSIVE" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2018802857982706054) 2026-02-03T21:44Z 14.1K followers, 164.1K engagements "PRIVATE BDC's are going get MASS REDEMPTIONS unless PUBLIC BDC's prices rebound quickly. PUBLIC BDC's are trading at a median 20+% discount to NAV. But PRIVATE BDCs are "promised" quarterly liquidity at NAV . SUBJECT TO A 5% GATE . no biggie BREIT gated in '22 HOWEVER " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720421589495920) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 238.2K engagements "$OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of stock is restricted Reverse Vol Washing 10.8% becomes tradeable each month for next [--] months which is a huge technical overhang causing BDC to trade at 77% of NAV . plus 13% of Loans are PIKing . https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992734611856666912 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992734611856666912" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1992734611856666912) 2025-11-23T23:18Z 14.1K followers, 67.3K engagements "Given HY spreads are at tights and Lev Loan market had been trading over PAR this priced action in SaaS LEV LOAN is NOTEWORTHY DOWN [--] POINTS on average on some BIG DEALS. $BIZD reflecting some pain . $OTF making new lows Gradually then Suddenly" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2018343996469182513) 2026-02-02T15:21Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "$OTF getting smoked on SaaS weakness IRR from INCEPTION in AUG '18 to NOW: 4.70% . GOLDEN AGE OF PRIVATE CREDIT $OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of stock is restricted Reverse Vol Washing 10.8% $OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2018719376174702699) 2026-02-03T16:12Z 14.1K followers, 11.1K engagements "Zito is a very TALENTED TRADER . many in PC are ex-bankers/structurers. GOOD TRADERS take LOSSES when FACTS CHANGE. Non-traders extend and pretend. When VOL is RISING TRUST the TRADERS If he is asking "IS SOFTWARE DEAD" then time to pay attention" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2019106855268622697) 2026-02-04T17:52Z 14.1K followers, 40.7K engagements "The credit market's tremendous growth during the last [--] years was fueled by almost universal belief in some narratives. These narratives started as assumptions but over time became "undisputed truths". In my experience credit crises occur when these "truths" turn out to be false" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1240624970591612929) 2020-03-19T13:03Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements "@RaoulGMI @dailydirtnap @TgMacro @CMcgarraugh @jimcramer @APompliano Raoul's brilliant comment that $BTC is the most reflexive set up that he has ever seen personally gave me more insight than anything that I have read or viewed concerning crypto. Here is my thought process: And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on. And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1345787804396232704) 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "So to me all the major "fundamentals" of $BTC lend themselves to be very reflexive to positive price action . Thank Raoul for the comment and motivation to increase my position" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1345787812092792832) 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "To me the most perplexing aspect to the $GME saga is that the company hasn't issues any shares/converts . WTF . to me that seemed like the only easy trade" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1356712634683432967) 2021-02-02T21:14Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements ") SOFTBANK CDS $SFTBY could be the biggest tell if credit markets have a true meltdown. So far the widening has been orderly and new issue markets in HY and Lev Loans are open. This morning quoted at [---] bps +40 bps on the day Pretty wide for a credit rated Ba3/BB+" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1522601878445559809) 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "6) However if private and public growth multiples keep contracting Softbank could get ugly quickly. Besides a decent amount of debt I suspect accounting practices would come under scrutiny. Therefore $SFTBY CDS is worth following" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1522601884812521472) 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "I can't think of a more basic measurement of risk for a bank's assets than DV01 which is the dollar value change of the assets for a [--] basis point move in interest rates. $SIVB's DV01 was around -$5mm per [--] basis point move which is massive. Did the regulators sign off on that" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1635676111718760450) 2023-03-14T16:15Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "1) This article explains some of the risks of shadow banks but misses a huge risk. It fails to mention that all private credit funds use leverage in order to be able to generate net returns of 8-10% to their investors. @boazweinstein https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691441020715010) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 663.8K engagements "2)The biggest and best managers get that leverage by using the CLO markets to get term financing. Therefore their assets (private loans) match their liabilities. However most managers get financing lines from the Street. Those lines are subject to strict COVENANTS" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691443000422403) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements "3) So while the financing lines might have a maturity which appear to match the assets (private loans) the financing can be REDUCED or PULLED if the private credit fund starts experiencing defaults in its loan portfolio" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1651691445454094336) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 19.4K engagements "4)So a typical $1bn PC fund will make $2bn of private loans and thus borrow $1bn from the sell side. As defaults are realized the Streets will enforce their covenants and make the fund pay back some portion of the line. Many funds are now fully invested and have NO CASH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691447232462849) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 18.5K engagements "5)So if a fully invested PC fund has its financing line cut by the Street. The manager will be forced to sell private loans to pay back the money borrowed on the line. The Street has little patience when they sense a position that they are financing is posing risk to them" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691448901816321) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 17.2K engagements "6)But private loans to date rarely trade. The few trades that have happened are club deals (more than [--] lender). Much of the market is bilateral deals (1 lender) which means the borrowers financials are not known to any other potential buyers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691450369818624) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements "7)Currently the street is not set up at all to help facilitate a forced sale risk transfer. However chaos is the mother of invention when there is blood in the street. So the loans will be sold but the prices will be very distressed" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691451938373632) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 25.6K engagements "8)The results will be ugly and eye opening for the Street PC fund managers and PC LPs. Additionally the forced selling will be reflexive and cause more lines to be reduced and more forced selling" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691453368737800) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements "9) Forced selling into a market with zero liquidity would have wide ranging ramifications" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691454731788290) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 20.5K engagements "@KvetchMacro @boazweinstein The default cycle has started. Q1 of '23 was the highest number of defaults since '10. The interest rates on all loans is higher. Most private credit is floating rate which was great until the Fed raised rates" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651797286035378176) 2023-04-28T03:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@FarinaccioSean @boazweinstein Shorting BDCs is a full time job. Lots of negative carry and risk of getting borrow pulled" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1651798899902873600) 2023-04-28T04:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@pkan90 @boazweinstein They have been amending and extending but the economy is slowing and the refinancing rate is much higher so defaults are happening" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651801377683668992) 2023-04-28T04:11Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@pkan90 @boazweinstein The Street definitely does not want this market to implode but the Street will always save itself as a lender regardless of the ramifications for a market" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651802496354877440) 2023-04-28T04:16Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Flattered to be interviewed by one of my favorite podcasters. Thank you @patrick_oshag https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663601035204493348) 2023-05-30T17:39Z 14.1K followers, 22.9K engagements "Alpha in distressed debt investing is much harder to find now that Reorg Research leveled the playing field. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1669827191419420674) 2023-06-16T22:00Z 14.1K followers, 25K engagements "1. Good article discussing the strain that higher rates put on the ability for levered PE-backed companies to cover interest expenses. Current all-in interest costs for middle market companies is around 12% given rise in LIBOR/SOFR. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1671885122889719810) 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements "5. My point is that paying 12% for debt makes the path for success for middle market PE deals much narrower and the probability of defaults much higher. Rating agency cited in article thinks 15% of MM PE companies will not be able cover interest expense" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1671885133794918401) 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 21.9K engagements "Jared never disappoints with his original insights. I've always found it interesting that people harbor animosity against banks but not insurance companies. Bank CEOs = millionaires Insurance CEOs = billionaires Anyone ever try to get a claim paid lately I've always found it interesting that people harbor animosity against banks but not insurance companies. Bank CEOs = millionaires Insurance CEOs = billionaires Anyone ever try to get a claim paid lately" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1673731864849272832) 2023-06-27T16:35Z 14.1K followers, 10.2K engagements ""Gradually then suddenly" are the words of Hemingway in The Sun Also Rises when a character is asked how he went bankrupt. This concept is key to understanding sudden volatility (change over time) both good and bad . tech adoption tipping points revolution . study calculus This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1675876839661682688) 2023-07-03T14:39Z 14.1K followers, 15.8K engagements "same with HY bonds and Leveraged Loans vs Private Credit How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1677704726081667072) 2023-07-08T15:42Z 14.1K followers, 27.7K engagements "A thread on some basic facts on CLO market: 1)The leveraged loan market is $1.7trn in size doubling in size in last [--] years. 70% of the loans are held by CLOs. Asset managers love issuing CLOs to boost AUM. IMHO the biz is tough for all but a big few but that's another thread" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737830342004748) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, 57.4K engagements "2)CLO managers are buyers of incremental loans when they can successfully place the debt and equity tranches of a new CLO deal. So therefore if CLO tranche spreads widen out in the secondary market due to selling pressure the arbitrage of issuing a new deal fails to work" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737831856193609) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "3)CLO managers cant place new CLOs and therefore are not buyers of the new issue leveraged loans. Their decision is primarily based on the economics of the securitization as opposed to if they believe the leveraged loan market to be rich or cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737833198399535) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "4)In this regard CLO managers decision to buy is passive and binary in nature much akin to the equity index fund managers decision to buy or sell is solely based on inflows or outflows of funds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737834557341708) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5)However equity index funds represent 30% of the equity market while CLOs own 70% of the loan market. Therefore when the CLO machine is turned off issuing new leveraged loans becomes very difficult potentially causing a credit crunch" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737835991798116) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "6)What would cause selling pressure in the secondary market for CLO tranches Increased defaults. Defaults are up this year but still around 2% Lower recoveries of defaulted loans. Recoveries this year are around 40% as opposed to historically 65% but still a small sample size" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737837342392345) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "7)Buyers of AAA tranches leaving the market or decreasing appetite. The triple AAA tranche is the biggest tranche representing 40% of the CLO capital structure. Big banks are the primary buyers. Japanese banks have been some of the biggest buyers over the last [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737838697119877) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "8)Japanese banks have massively reduced appetite as yields has risen in Japan. US Banks are still buyers but at wider levels. Any pressure on bank balance sheets or better opportunities in AAA securities like agency RMBS (historical wides) decreases appetite" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737840077001094) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "9)Just pointing out that a clustering of defaults with lower recoveries and some pull back from banks could cause a major market to freeze quickly and reflexivity works quickest in credit markets" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737841775706432) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Every good idea on Wall St becomes bastardized due to greed . history rhymes" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1729159200180490720) 2023-11-27T15:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@midtown_rob I am friends with this gentleman. I play hoops with him and he can still ball. Sneaky good jumper off the dribble from [--] feet. Shocked that he is 72" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751620778888474821) 2024-01-28T14:58Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements "@midtown_rob Old mans game . [--] and over . below the rim" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1751621768962302399) 2024-01-28T15:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "The gentleman being interviewed is a friend of mine. We plays hoops together and besides being a very nice person he is an elite baller for his age" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751692039060672657) 2024-01-28T19:41Z 14.1K followers, 44.2K engagements "I have been investing in start-up and private companies for almost [--] years. Overall my record is mediocre at best and I have now vowed to stick to areas where I do better (credit special sitch value macro). Here are some lessons that I have learned:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015421286080666) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, 34.6K engagements "1. Envy plays a much bigger factor in doing dumb investments in private marketts than public markets. Everyone is chasing the 1000x" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015422561116537) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "2. Realize you are a part-time amateur competing against smart pro's that are spending all their working time sourcing and vetting deals. Assume if you are seeing the deal than they have passed or would never even consider" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015423865590240) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "4. If a company is willing to pay 13+% interest they will default 80+% of the time. Make sure that your credit agreement is legit" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015426097004834) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5. If the founder's exit strategy is to sell to a strategic pass" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1755015427179114700) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "6. 95% of start-ups need more money and take longer to become profitable than they originally project" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1755015428202475654) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "7. Don't worry about not having enough exposure since you almost always get another chance to invest in the next round" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015429263663236) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "9. The older I get the more that I appreciate simplicity and liquidity in more own portfolio" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1755015431427944723) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "10. If people know that you have some money they will seek you out to invest in their company. Working on your delivery to be able to say "no" graciously is time well spent" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755017091831169366) 2024-02-06T23:54Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "I have had the good fortune of being invited as a guest on friends' private jets. Here is my take on proper PJ Etiquette: [--]. Say "yes" and minimize your questions to dates and departure time. If you decline you might not get asked again" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765535093710279040) 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, 12.2K engagements "11. Thank the pilots/attendant by name. [--]. Have cash handy to tip baggage handlers. [--]. Show sincere gratitude to your host. Inspired by the OG PJ hitchhiker JD" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765535100312117319) 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "A great listen . Proud to call Sean a friend One of my favorite conversations in memory @seanbfeeney left finance to build THE budding restaurant group (Lilia Misi Fini) in NYC with chef Missy Robbins No matter what you do this is worth your time I think their story will inspire everyone https://t.co/tZUR7Ht6h4 https://t.co/P8LCmYXvXU One of my favorite conversations in memory @seanbfeeney left finance to build THE budding restaurant group (Lilia Misi Fini) in NYC with chef Missy Robbins No matter what you do this is worth your time I think their story will inspire everyone" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1772968245194051629) 2024-03-27T12:45Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "My brother Liam is [--] today. He has been a SAT tutor bartender 2x magazine writer PE analyst CDS broker 2x HF execution trader day trader and insurance salesperson. Currently he is co-GP and co-operator of [--] car washes and has never worked harder" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1773734053868425416) 2024-03-29T15:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "1. I just read this book which is [--] years old so may be late to the party. It is a bit technical with many players so a tough slog if you are not familiar with credit markets but a must read for anyone involved in credit. some thoughts below: https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549748306489652) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 66.9K engagements "2. This saga marked the beginning of a paradigm shift in distressed mkt. Balance sheet and skills required to be a successful distressed investor were dramatically raised. Very savvy players were pitted against Apollo and each other. If you weren't on the inside good luck" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549749677953067) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "3. After Caesar's every PE sponsor when experiencing stress in a port co asks themselves "What would Apollo do" If their creditors are not experienced with in or out of court restructuring IMHO PE sponsors are going to have upper hand in extending their option " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549750869131521) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 10.4K engagements "4. Even the sharps in distressed can get tattoed. Some of players in Caesar's got burned by tactics used in J Crew bankruptcy and copied in Petsmart and NMG. TPG was sponsor in J Crew and Apollo's partner in CZR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549752190374024) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5. Elliott won in Caesar's on many trades but particularly CDS trade but then were loser on Winstream CDS trade. GSO lost on CZR CDS trade but won on HOV CDS trade against Solus (who won on CZR trade by buying 1st and 2nd liens)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549753327034744) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "6. Distressed investing's evolution is akin to professional poker. Once there were a few sharks and many fish and now many sharks pitted against other. Foot note to @CorneliaLake on analogy" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549754522374189) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "7. Makes me think of Mike Vranos quote from mid 90s on RMBS market. We're not trying to outsmart the smart guys; we're trying to sell bonds to the dumb guys. When no dumb guys game is lot harder" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549755755524183) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "8. Opinions on ethics aside Apollo "lost" in the end but they still won because they demonstrated that they would whatever it takes to maximize their option as equity owner and raised $25bn for their next PE fund in '17 which was largestt ever" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549757273841928) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@junkbondanalyst Obviously Apollo god of the Sun is the sponsor" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1777415101542203429) 2024-04-08T19:15Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "If these deals keep getting more common a good chance that a negative reflexivity kicks the snot out of the credit markets. New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe https://t.co/l3q4kqMT8i New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780398397129703757) 2024-04-17T00:50Z 14.1K followers, 15.2K engagements "A hill that I will die on: I don't care if we are talking public or private credit. If your a creditor at par getting paid PIK interest sucks in the long run over enough different loans/bonds positions. The debtor is not paying you cash for a reason . they can't afford it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780645341928239150) 2024-04-17T17:11Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements "S&P research article below on adjusted EBITDA aka EBITDA addbacks. They conclude that leverage is 2-3 turns higher two years later since adjustment not realized. How does that affects a company's ability to service debt Quick thread: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240327-leveraged-finance-adding-up-ebitda-addback-study-shows-moderate-improvement-in-earnings-projection-accuracy-13045496#::text=In%20general%2C%20S%26P%20Global%20Ratingsand%20marketability%20of%20a%20transaction" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788228358553116715) 2024-05-08T15:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "The best piece that I have read about debt in a long time. And Housel is such an elegant and efficient writer. https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/ https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790433966710751594) 2024-05-14T17:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly . Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1796253262976315817) 2024-05-30T18:52Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Tough day for just about every investor but at least Private Credit marks are UNCHED" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1820445498299334675) 2024-08-05T13:03Z 14.1K followers, 101.1K engagements "@CliffordAsness As you know as well as anyone Sharpes of [--] are to be trusted like Nigerian princes promising 100% return for a [--] day loan" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1820451018615738784) 2024-08-05T13:25Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Credit bears have had their eyes on $PSEC for a couple of years. if BDCs were a high school class $PSEC might be voted most likely to not succeed. Gradually then suddenly Regardless of your take on $PSEC very good article by Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821255996985290972) 2024-08-07T18:44Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "IMHO if you aren't listening to @patrick_oshag podcast you aren't fully trying to get better at whatever game you are playing. He routinely drops nuggets of insight/wisdom like this one which makes you realize that you need to keep learning. The astounding efficiency of the human brain and the way babies and toddlers can learn: GPT3 took [---] million kWh to train. Converted to calories and assuming 2k calories/day that's [----] years. think about what kids learn in [--] From discussion with @TerranMott this morning The astounding efficiency of the human brain and the way babies and toddlers can" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1826642260609696253) 2024-08-22T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "EXTEND and PRETEND is the biggest worry in Private Credit. How do PC/BDC funds extend and pretend PIKs BDC analyst estimates that 17% and growing of public BDC's assets are PIKs. Problem for BDC is that PIKs count as income which needs to paid out as a div so leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828820134758355380) 2024-08-28T15:41Z 14.1K followers, 13.1K engagements ""irrelevant immaterial non-burger" Nice friendly exchange between $PSEC's CEO and a WFC research analyst on today's earnings call 😅🤣 https://t.co/qsqbm58rzc Nice friendly exchange between $PSEC's CEO and a WFC research analyst on today's earnings call 😅🤣 https://t.co/qsqbm58rzc" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1829170978464960534) 2024-08-29T14:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "This dude is giving off some Dick Fuld vibe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1829486636918567367) 2024-08-30T11:49Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "if this graph is true bearish for credit ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing according to data from Similarweb compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts I do think LLMs have https://t.co/m7HsJVme8Z ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing according to data from Similarweb compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts I do think LLMs have" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1832386869675409534) 2024-09-07T11:54Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements "Good time to launch the secondary trading of private credit" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1907779843791495480) 2025-04-03T12:58Z 14.1K followers, 11.8K engagements "On tough days I think about this yarn: At a party Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal Joseph Heller that their host a HF manager had made more $$ in [--] day than Heller had earned from Catch-22 in total. Heller replies Yes but I have something he will never have ENOUGH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907814050957754794) 2025-04-03T15:14Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "If you employ margin or in a carry trade (including long credit) you are short vol. The longer this high vol persists the greater chance of forced selling" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909672782843310377) 2025-04-08T18:20Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "In the last [--] days I saw my [--] hoops teams (Duke and Knicks) lose when one had a 97.1% and other 99.7% win probability but at least private credit marks are still PAR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925633687179141289) 2025-05-22T19:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "20 betas working out of a strip mall in King of Prussia rated [----] private credit deals . sounds like a solid foundation for the underpinnings of the US capital markets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/private-credit-ratings-egan-jones-deals-raise-wall-street-scrutiny https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/private-credit-ratings-egan-jones-deals-raise-wall-street-scrutiny" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929583563952783715) 2025-06-02T16:59Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "So a [--] year old Private Credit Fund has to roll 90% of its assets to a Continuation Vehicle but we are in the Golden Age of Private Credit The goal when lending money is getting paid back from borrower not roll forever. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962908500545212806) 2025-09-02T16:00Z 14.1K followers, 49.4K engagements "90% OF LOANS ARE BEING ROLLED [--] YEARS LATER" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962914498039238850) 2025-09-02T16:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "When it comes to PRIVATE CREDIT I think RETAIL is the SMART MONEY. WHY is RETAIL the SMART MONEY because they are SELLING BDC EQUITIES are a FURIOUS rate despite stock market highs and public market tights. Let me explain why they are selling and why they may be CORRECT:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309971269861837) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, 69.5K engagements "1. Problems in older loans are increasing forcing lenders to extend maturities and let borrowers PIK interest. Pay In Kind interest is not cash but counts as income for a BDC. So BDCs have less cash coming in to pay dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309972754637233) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "2. However oddly new deal spreads are tighter given lack of new M&A by PE sponsors in middle market. PE exits have been slower and buyout math not as compelling given private market multiples still high. So new loans spreads tighter due to competition. less income for BDC" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309974172414123) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "3. Fed funds has been cut and some more cuts coming so SOFR lower and projected to be lower in future. Lower SOFR is bad for BDCs because their dividends are fixed rate and part of net income is floating rate. Lower SOFR means less net income for BDC" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309975610949780) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "4. BCRED largest private BDC just cut it's dividend. Since BDC is private and "trades"/redeems subject to a gate at NAV the cut didn't affect its price/NAV" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309978102468794) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5. RETAIL sees the writing on the wall of LOWER INCOME means BDC dividend coverage is getting tight and BDC's will be CUTTING DIVIDENDS in the future and they are SELLING because they CAN" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1976309979595595947) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "6. Institutional Investors in PC FUNDS or PRIVATE BDCs are STUCK and HOPING that their PAR MARK is REAL until it isn't. Maybe they will be bailed out at a [--] point discount by some dumb CONTINUATION FUND vehicle" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309981105561988) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "7. Now Alt Asset Managers equities are dirtnapping . Soros' theory of reflexivity is starting to take hold" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309982544203899) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "BREIT (a private REIT) had assets (CRE) that it could sell at or even ABOVE the mark. Private BDCs have 5-10% BSLs which have liquidity NEAR the Mark for NOW. BUT the rest of the assets PRIVATE LOANS have ZERO LIQUIDITY ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK. SO IF " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720423070187694) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 17.3K engagements "You own Oak Tree Strategic Credit Fund (private) which just cut its dividend and you see the very comparable OCSL trading at 73% OF NAV. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO REDEEM AND " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720424386900243) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 18.6K engagements "The PRIVATE BDCs aka INTERVAL FUNDS aka Asset/Liabilty MISMATCHES are much bigger than public BDCs. For example BXSL has $10ish bn AUM and BCRED has $75bn AUM . They do own some % of BSLs aka Lev Loans so BKLN is a SHORT amongst many other things if GATES BECOME THE NORM" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720425758679346) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements "Together with rivals like KKR Apollo and Starwood these semiliquid funds have raised hundreds of billions in capital in less than a decade faster than almost any other corner of finance Highlighting BREIT and SREIT managers stressed that . https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979185068250652870) 2025-10-17T13:57Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Loan was marked at [---] and then ZERO . Gradually then Suddenly RECOVERING ZERO for secured loan is a rare occurence Means the underlying business was asset light Lending to a PE valuation as opposed to asset coverage is a big PC underappreciated risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987915360969040212) 2025-11-10T16:08Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Non-traded BDC with quarterly liquidity at NAV has been gated because GP cannot meet redemptions. So instead of selling assets like BREIT did GP wants to merge this entity 🧵 Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit https://on.ft.com/43tojgw https://on.ft.com/43tojgw" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990093204104831294) 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, 13K engagements "With Public BDC which trades at 20% discount . which sucks for the investor and not what they signed up for Why NOT SELL ASSETS to meet redemptions at NAV Because they CANT SELL ASSETS (unlike BREIT) anywhere near the mark. Trend starting here for non traded BDCs" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990093206189412590) 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@junkbondinvest Step [--] is so awesome" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1990169508364034230) 2025-11-16T21:26Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Good move by $OWL to call off merger and not subject the holders of OBCD II to a 20% haircut but questions remain: How do they meet redemptions Sell assets (probably not since bids will suck) lever up Will redemptions pick up massively I bet YES https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1991151932606496816) 2025-11-19T14:29Z 14.1K followers, 16.2K engagements "AI is 100% going to cause massive VOL. Some companies will win big and some will die. The worst place to be is the lender to the losers . capped upside and big downside. So HIGH VOL is bad for lenders to SaaS. My opinion is that $APO and $BX are superior investors to $OWL . $OTF could have a very tough time. Apollo reportedly cut their software exposure by almost half during [----] after starting the year with 20% concentration in the sector AI fears are increasingly driving private investments away from traditional software https://t.co/1iMCyTlCeo Apollo reportedly cut their software exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1999931343887855773) 2025-12-13T19:56Z 14K followers, 14K engagements "Love this mental framework . I started my career during the throes of the GFC crisis working on CDOs / CLOs / RMBS / CMBS. This gave me one of my earliest mental models which I light-heartedly call everything is bond math - the ability to see that most financial assets with streams of cash flows are I started my career during the throes of the GFC crisis working on CDOs / CLOs / RMBS / CMBS. This gave me one of my earliest mental models which I light-heartedly call everything is bond math - the ability to see that most financial assets with streams of cash flows are" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2000331414752170443) 2025-12-14T22:25Z 14.1K followers, 16.9K engagements "Gradually then Suddenly . The Negative Convexity of Vol Washing in Private Credit Cant wait until other PC Managers say this portfolio is an isolated issue A BlackRock private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its net assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results https://t.co/t34n12WRlb A BlackRock private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its net assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results https://t.co/t34n12WRlb" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2015077568735580527) 2026-01-24T15:01Z 14.1K followers, 31.9K engagements "@LOGOinvestor Yes but its holdings are private loans that stay marked at [---] until they get marked way down . public BDCs are part of PC AUM" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2015082506291142785) 2026-01-24T15:21Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements "@LOGOinvestor $KKR manages $FSK that chart doesnt exude confidence. agree that $APO and $BX are good managers but lots of bad to mediocre managers in PC" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2015086812557885601) 2026-01-24T15:38Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements "@LeylaKuni I have traded/invested in credit for [--] years . recovering ZERO on a 1st lien loan is RARE the low recoveries are more troubling to me than the quantity of defaults" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2015174073144299977) 2026-01-24T21:25Z 14K followers, [---] engagements "@LeylaKuni Agreed . Renovo is emblematic that some terrible underwriting has been done in PC" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2015176499809092066) 2026-01-24T21:34Z 14K followers, [---] engagements "YES only 8% of AUM is SOFTWARE but 23% of AUM is STAKES in GPs of Alt Managers . which also have a BIG DELTA to software" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2019448248721707433) 2026-02-05T16:29Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements "If net flows of non-traded BDCs become negative for a few quarters managers will face a CHOICE: SELL PRIVATE LOANS or GATE. I believe that they will GATE. Selling assets to meet redemptions would only cause redemptions to further increase. The loans are marked at [---] but a great bid for a private loan would be in low 90s. If good loans are sold close to [--] the stated NAV is lower but the "market perceived" NAV is much lower. Redemptions spike. Their public stock prices get hit since AUM and fee incoming is going down. GATING is the logical choice to selling. since the bids for the best loans" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/2020928489969402228) 2026-02-09T18:31Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "1) This article explains some of the risks of shadow banks but misses a huge risk. It fails to mention that all private credit funds use leverage in order to be able to generate net returns of 8-10% to their investors. @boazweinstein https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691441020715010) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 663.8K engagements "PRIVATE BDC's are going get MASS REDEMPTIONS unless PUBLIC BDC's prices rebound quickly. PUBLIC BDC's are trading at a median 20+% discount to NAV. But PRIVATE BDCs are "promised" quarterly liquidity at NAV . SUBJECT TO A 5% GATE . no biggie BREIT gated in '22 HOWEVER " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720421589495920) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 238.2K engagements "Tough day for just about every investor but at least Private Credit marks are UNCHED" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1820445498299334675) 2024-08-05T13:03Z 14.1K followers, 101.1K engagements "1. I just read this book which is [--] years old so may be late to the party. It is a bit technical with many players so a tough slog if you are not familiar with credit markets but a must read for anyone involved in credit. some thoughts below: https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549748306489652) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 66.9K engagements "When it comes to PRIVATE CREDIT I think RETAIL is the SMART MONEY. WHY is RETAIL the SMART MONEY because they are SELLING BDC EQUITIES are a FURIOUS rate despite stock market highs and public market tights. Let me explain why they are selling and why they may be CORRECT:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309971269861837) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, 69.5K engagements "A thread on some basic facts on CLO market: 1)The leveraged loan market is $1.7trn in size doubling in size in last [--] years. 70% of the loans are held by CLOs. Asset managers love issuing CLOs to boost AUM. IMHO the biz is tough for all but a big few but that's another thread" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737830342004748) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, 57.4K engagements "The gentleman being interviewed is a friend of mine. We plays hoops together and besides being a very nice person he is an elite baller for his age" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751692039060672657) 2024-01-28T19:41Z 14.1K followers, 44.2K engagements "9) Forced selling into a market with zero liquidity would have wide ranging ramifications" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691454731788290) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 20.5K engagements "So a [--] year old Private Credit Fund has to roll 90% of its assets to a Continuation Vehicle but we are in the Golden Age of Private Credit The goal when lending money is getting paid back from borrower not roll forever. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962908500545212806) 2025-09-02T16:00Z 14.1K followers, 49.4K engagements "2)The biggest and best managers get that leverage by using the CLO markets to get term financing. Therefore their assets (private loans) match their liabilities. However most managers get financing lines from the Street. Those lines are subject to strict COVENANTS" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691443000422403) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements "3) So while the financing lines might have a maturity which appear to match the assets (private loans) the financing can be REDUCED or PULLED if the private credit fund starts experiencing defaults in its loan portfolio" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1651691445454094336) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 19.4K engagements "8)The results will be ugly and eye opening for the Street PC fund managers and PC LPs. Additionally the forced selling will be reflexive and cause more lines to be reduced and more forced selling" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691453368737800) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements "4)So a typical $1bn PC fund will make $2bn of private loans and thus borrow $1bn from the sell side. As defaults are realized the Streets will enforce their covenants and make the fund pay back some portion of the line. Many funds are now fully invested and have NO CASH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691447232462849) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 18.5K engagements "7)Currently the street is not set up at all to help facilitate a forced sale risk transfer. However chaos is the mother of invention when there is blood in the street. So the loans will be sold but the prices will be very distressed" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691451938373632) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 25.6K engagements "The credit market's tremendous growth during the last [--] years was fueled by almost universal belief in some narratives. These narratives started as assumptions but over time became "undisputed truths". In my experience credit crises occur when these "truths" turn out to be false" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1240624970591612929) 2020-03-19T13:03Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements "Good move by $OWL to call off merger and not subject the holders of OBCD II to a 20% haircut but questions remain: How do they meet redemptions Sell assets (probably not since bids will suck) lever up Will redemptions pick up massively I bet YES https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1991151932606496816) 2025-11-19T14:29Z 14.1K followers, 16.2K engagements "@midtown_rob I am friends with this gentleman. I play hoops with him and he can still ball. Sneaky good jumper off the dribble from [--] feet. Shocked that he is 72" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751620778888474821) 2024-01-28T14:58Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements "6)But private loans to date rarely trade. The few trades that have happened are club deals (more than [--] lender). Much of the market is bilateral deals (1 lender) which means the borrowers financials are not known to any other potential buyers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691450369818624) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements "I have been investing in start-up and private companies for almost [--] years. Overall my record is mediocre at best and I have now vowed to stick to areas where I do better (credit special sitch value macro). Here are some lessons that I have learned:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015421286080666) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, 34.6K engagements "5)So if a fully invested PC fund has its financing line cut by the Street. The manager will be forced to sell private loans to pay back the money borrowed on the line. The Street has little patience when they sense a position that they are financing is posing risk to them" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651691448901816321) 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 17.2K engagements "The PRIVATE BDCs aka INTERVAL FUNDS aka Asset/Liabilty MISMATCHES are much bigger than public BDCs. For example BXSL has $10ish bn AUM and BCRED has $75bn AUM . They do own some % of BSLs aka Lev Loans so BKLN is a SHORT amongst many other things if GATES BECOME THE NORM" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720425758679346) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements "Non-traded BDC with quarterly liquidity at NAV has been gated because GP cannot meet redemptions. So instead of selling assets like BREIT did GP wants to merge this entity 🧵 Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit https://on.ft.com/43tojgw https://on.ft.com/43tojgw" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990093204104831294) 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, 13K engagements "EXTEND and PRETEND is the biggest worry in Private Credit. How do PC/BDC funds extend and pretend PIKs BDC analyst estimates that 17% and growing of public BDC's assets are PIKs. Problem for BDC is that PIKs count as income which needs to paid out as a div so leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828820134758355380) 2024-08-28T15:41Z 14.1K followers, 13.1K engagements "1. Good article discussing the strain that higher rates put on the ability for levered PE-backed companies to cover interest expenses. Current all-in interest costs for middle market companies is around 12% given rise in LIBOR/SOFR. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1671885122889719810) 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements "A hill that I will die on: I don't care if we are talking public or private credit. If your a creditor at par getting paid PIK interest sucks in the long run over enough different loans/bonds positions. The debtor is not paying you cash for a reason . they can't afford it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780645341928239150) 2024-04-17T17:11Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements "same with HY bonds and Leveraged Loans vs Private Credit How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1677704726081667072) 2023-07-08T15:42Z 14.1K followers, 27.7K engagements "How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1677695404035407878) 2023-07-08T15:05Z 112.4K followers, 701.3K engagements "You own Oak Tree Strategic Credit Fund (private) which just cut its dividend and you see the very comparable OCSL trading at 73% OF NAV. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO REDEEM AND " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720424386900243) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 18.6K engagements "Flattered to be interviewed by one of my favorite podcasters. Thank you @patrick_oshag https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663601035204493348) 2023-05-30T17:39Z 14.1K followers, 22.9K engagements "Good time to launch the secondary trading of private credit" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1907779843791495480) 2025-04-03T12:58Z 14.1K followers, 11.8K engagements "BREIT (a private REIT) had assets (CRE) that it could sell at or even ABOVE the mark. Private BDCs have 5-10% BSLs which have liquidity NEAR the Mark for NOW. BUT the rest of the assets PRIVATE LOANS have ZERO LIQUIDITY ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK. SO IF " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976720423070187694) 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 17.3K engagements ""Gradually then suddenly" are the words of Hemingway in The Sun Also Rises when a character is asked how he went bankrupt. This concept is key to understanding sudden volatility (change over time) both good and bad . tech adoption tipping points revolution . study calculus This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1675876839661682688) 2023-07-03T14:39Z 14.1K followers, 15.8K engagements "This is an excellent visual" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1675529745034018822) 2023-07-02T15:39Z 29.1K followers, 1.4M engagements "THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly . Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1796253262976315817) 2024-05-30T18:52Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Alpha in distressed debt investing is much harder to find now that Reorg Research leveled the playing field. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1669827191419420674) 2023-06-16T22:00Z 14.1K followers, 25K engagements "One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it" [X Link](https://x.com/DDInvesting/status/1669667979229908992) 2023-06-16T11:27Z [----] followers, 57.7K engagements "7. Now Alt Asset Managers equities are dirtnapping . Soros' theory of reflexivity is starting to take hold" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309982544203899) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "In the last [--] days I saw my [--] hoops teams (Duke and Knicks) lose when one had a 97.1% and other 99.7% win probability but at least private credit marks are still PAR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925633687179141289) 2025-05-22T19:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements ") SOFTBANK CDS $SFTBY could be the biggest tell if credit markets have a true meltdown. So far the widening has been orderly and new issue markets in HY and Lev Loans are open. This morning quoted at [---] bps +40 bps on the day Pretty wide for a credit rated Ba3/BB+" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1522601878445559809) 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "9)Just pointing out that a clustering of defaults with lower recoveries and some pull back from banks could cause a major market to freeze quickly and reflexivity works quickest in credit markets" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737841775706432) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "If these deals keep getting more common a good chance that a negative reflexivity kicks the snot out of the credit markets. New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe https://t.co/l3q4kqMT8i New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780398397129703757) 2024-04-17T00:50Z 14.1K followers, 15.2K engagements "New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780321926411334101) 2024-04-16T19:46Z 17.4K followers, 24.5K engagements "4. If a company is willing to pay 13+% interest they will default 80+% of the time. Make sure that your credit agreement is legit" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755015426097004834) 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5. My point is that paying 12% for debt makes the path for success for middle market PE deals much narrower and the probability of defaults much higher. Rating agency cited in article thinks 15% of MM PE companies will not be able cover interest expense" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1671885133794918401) 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 21.9K engagements "@KvetchMacro @boazweinstein The default cycle has started. Q1 of '23 was the highest number of defaults since '10. The interest rates on all loans is higher. Most private credit is floating rate which was great until the Fed raised rates" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651797286035378176) 2023-04-28T03:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Loan was marked at [---] and then ZERO . Gradually then Suddenly RECOVERING ZERO for secured loan is a rare occurence Means the underlying business was asset light Lending to a PE valuation as opposed to asset coverage is a big PC underappreciated risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987915360969040212) 2025-11-10T16:08Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "My brother Liam is [--] today. He has been a SAT tutor bartender 2x magazine writer PE analyst CDS broker 2x HF execution trader day trader and insurance salesperson. Currently he is co-GP and co-operator of [--] car washes and has never worked harder" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1773734053868425416) 2024-03-29T15:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Credit bears have had their eyes on $PSEC for a couple of years. if BDCs were a high school class $PSEC might be voted most likely to not succeed. Gradually then suddenly Regardless of your take on $PSEC very good article by Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821255996985290972) 2024-08-07T18:44Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@pkan90 @boazweinstein The Street definitely does not want this market to implode but the Street will always save itself as a lender regardless of the ramifications for a market" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651802496354877440) 2023-04-28T04:16Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "7. Makes me think of Mike Vranos quote from mid 90s on RMBS market. We're not trying to outsmart the smart guys; we're trying to sell bonds to the dumb guys. When no dumb guys game is lot harder" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775549755755524183) 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "1. Problems in older loans are increasing forcing lenders to extend maturities and let borrowers PIK interest. Pay In Kind interest is not cash but counts as income for a BDC. So BDCs have less cash coming in to pay dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309972754637233) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "90% OF LOANS ARE BEING ROLLED [--] YEARS LATER" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962914498039238850) 2025-09-02T16:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "This dude is giving off some Dick Fuld vibe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1829486636918567367) 2024-08-30T11:49Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@RaoulGMI @dailydirtnap @TgMacro @CMcgarraugh @jimcramer @APompliano Raoul's brilliant comment that $BTC is the most reflexive set up that he has ever seen personally gave me more insight than anything that I have read or viewed concerning crypto. Here is my thought process: And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on. And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1345787804396232704) 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements "And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1344116477868339200) 2020-12-30T03:01Z 1.3M followers, [---] engagements "3. Fed funds has been cut and some more cuts coming so SOFR lower and projected to be lower in future. Lower SOFR is bad for BDCs because their dividends are fixed rate and part of net income is floating rate. Lower SOFR means less net income for BDC" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976309975610949780) 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "With Public BDC which trades at 20% discount . which sucks for the investor and not what they signed up for Why NOT SELL ASSETS to meet redemptions at NAV Because they CANT SELL ASSETS (unlike BREIT) anywhere near the mark. Trend starting here for non traded BDCs" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990093206189412590) 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "S&P research article below on adjusted EBITDA aka EBITDA addbacks. They conclude that leverage is 2-3 turns higher two years later since adjustment not realized. How does that affects a company's ability to service debt Quick thread: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240327-leveraged-finance-adding-up-ebitda-addback-study-shows-moderate-improvement-in-earnings-projection-accuracy-13045496#::text=In%20general%2C%20S%26P%20Global%20Ratingsand%20marketability%20of%20a%20transaction" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788228358553116715) 2024-05-08T15:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "@FarinaccioSean @boazweinstein Shorting BDCs is a full time job. Lots of negative carry and risk of getting borrow pulled" [X Link](https://x.com/kieranwgoodwin/status/1651798899902873600) 2023-04-28T04:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "I have had the good fortune of being invited as a guest on friends' private jets. Here is my take on proper PJ Etiquette: [--]. Say "yes" and minimize your questions to dates and departure time. If you decline you might not get asked again" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765535093710279040) 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, 12.2K engagements "8)Japanese banks have massively reduced appetite as yields has risen in Japan. US Banks are still buyers but at wider levels. Any pressure on bank balance sheets or better opportunities in AAA securities like agency RMBS (historical wides) decreases appetite" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737840077001094) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "5)However equity index funds represent 30% of the equity market while CLOs own 70% of the loan market. Therefore when the CLO machine is turned off issuing new leveraged loans becomes very difficult potentially causing a credit crunch" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719737835991798116) 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements "Every good idea on Wall St becomes bastardized due to greed . history rhymes" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1729159200180490720) 2023-11-27T15:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@kieranwgoodwin Kieran Goodwin
Kieran Goodwin posts on X about market, in the, fund, public the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [------] -94%
- [--] Month [-------] +741%
- [--] Months [-------] +2,510%
- [--] Year [-------] -5.80%
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- [--] Month [--] +45%
- [--] Months [--] +900%
- [--] Year [--] +38%
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- [--] Week [------] -0.04%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks currencies cryptocurrencies technology brands countries financial services celebrities automotive brands
Social topic influence market, in the, fund, public, debt, if you, pc, liquidity, nav, article
Top assets mentioned Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) Bitcoin (BTC) Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (OWL) GameStop, Corp. (GME)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@dampedspring @boazweinstein While I agree that the recovery rate of blue chip credits would be higher than current prices I don't think the probablity of default is high enough to offset the greater bid/offer and state tax implications to own IG corps"
X Link 2023-10-04T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Knightlegcap Private Credit is the Chuck Norris of Capital Markets"
X Link 2024-02-07T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ReustleMatt 100% agree with your take. If we get a big wave of defaults market might get overwhelmed and you probably get some "good company bad balance sheet" situations"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A new day and a new knife fight: Does anyone have a name for this new "technology" (my favorite euphemism) to get around the prohibition of incurring new debt to repay debt As this violence continues won't losers start eschewing the credit market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/creditor-betrayals-pit-invesco-against-bain-in-bankruptcy-rumble https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/creditor-betrayals-pit-invesco-against-bain-in-bankruptcy-rumble"
X Link 2024-04-18T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SethLevine2 6x levered middle market PE sponsored company with 50% LTV using adjusted EBITDA is S+600 best best case . [---] is very fair . zero shot of 350"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@amadeopanoptes IMHO $ARCC is a buy if it traded down with the group. But BDC's can trade down hard/fast but $ARCC at less than 80% of NAV is good LT buy"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@hsri07 agreed very hard to short BDCs but just pointing out that $PSEC needs to be on your radar if you are a credit investor"
X Link 2024-08-07T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Macdonald3421 less than $500mm market cap with net income decreasing"
X Link 2024-08-28T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@FoamOnTheRunway aka fiat currency"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Barons agreeing with me that $NMFC attempted portfolio sale is HUGE TELL for PC. They dont mention that many of their loans are club deals owned by other BDCs. New Mountain Asset Sale Shapes Up as a Test of Private Credit Market https://www.barrons.com/articles/-private-credit-market-valuations-new-mountain-f06b9639st=h6g7Df https://www.barrons.com/articles/-private-credit-market-valuations-new-mountain-f06b9639st=h6g7Df"
X Link 2026-01-01T14:58Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@dunnde @Roshan_Gudapati fair point but doesn't $OBDC get crushed if new owners are all sellers"
X Link 2025-11-19T16:11Z 14K followers, [--] engagements
"@Roshan_Gudapati if they gate indefinitely redemptions on all of their "semi-liquid" funds will go thru the roof"
X Link 2025-11-19T16:12Z 13.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Another one-off cockroach https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/private-credit-firms-to-swap-debt-for-equity-in-stressed-48forty https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/private-credit-firms-to-swap-debt-for-equity-in-stressed-48forty"
X Link 2025-11-20T21:25Z 13.4K followers, 141.6K engagements
"My fears are grounded. They grew from $0 to $150bn AUM in credit by being aggressive in lending standards. Turns out borrowers like the tight spreads and loose convenants Blue Owl Is Having a Rough Year. Its Co-CEO Says Investors Fears Are Ungrounded. https://www.barrons.com/articles/blue-owl-co-ceo-fears-ungrounded-7bc0a3e5st=NsPKew https://www.barrons.com/articles/blue-owl-co-ceo-fears-ungrounded-7bc0a3e5st=NsPKew"
X Link 2025-11-21T00:27Z 13.4K followers, 60.1K engagements
"Great post . Unfortunately I think soon enough the Private Wealth Channel is going to become very familiar with GATES . Interval funds are gating already; non-traded BDCs next Investors hate it when funds gate redemptions. Fund managers know this and will only use this option as the last resort. Before redemptions are gated managers will do a number of other things (and it's on you LPs if you miss them in financial reports): https://t.co/K04HX2AegY Investors hate it when funds gate redemptions. Fund managers know this and will only use this option as the last resort. Before redemptions are"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:41Z 13.9K followers, 23.9K engagements
"Agree that BREIT is exception . SREIT still gated. But REIT structure is way better for private structure since assets bought can appreciate and be worth more than their mark . marks can be conservative . in PC loans are marked at par but cant be worth more than par and will almost always be bid much less than par if GP seeks a bid . PC marks are aggressive from day 1"
X Link 2025-11-23T16:18Z 13.8K followers, [---] engagements
"MY ISSUES WITH PAY IN KIND INTEREST (1) Lets be clear: PIK INTEREST IS JUST WELL PAY YOU LATER (MAYBE). Its not cash its the borrower delaying payments while your loan balance quietly GROWS. (2) In traditional credit markets PIK = RED FLAG. Only the weakest borrowers used it. You would only buy a PIK bond/loan if you LOVED the credit or were buying at a big discount. (3) Private Credit shows up and says: PIK is a feature not a bug. PIK interest has been NORMALIZED which is good for borrowers good for PC managers (bigger universe of borrowers) but bad for investors/lenders. (4) I view EVERY PC"
X Link 2025-12-02T13:51Z 13.9K followers, 29.3K engagements
"Pre [----] Distressed investing was like the Godfather's Mafia . definitely brutal but a code existed . honor among theives Now the landscape is like Mexican Cartels . complete blood sport Doesn't bode well for recovercies in next distressed cycle. https://www.ft.com/content/b934d78b-6662-494a-8eb9-7a956f198465 https://www.ft.com/content/b934d78b-6662-494a-8eb9-7a956f198465"
X Link 2025-12-12T20:25Z 14K followers, 36.8K engagements
"Yes . CZR bankruptcy changed the game. Then during commodity/energy bankruptcies that followed the bigger buy side players started playing Bully ball with their balance sheets effectively priming smaller guys. Pre Dodd Frank dealers had massive back books and somewhat enforced the honor code. But the lawyers now are motivated to come up with more creative (slimy to some) tactics to pit creditors against each other"
X Link 2025-12-12T22:20Z 14K followers, [---] engagements
"SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:31Z 14K followers, [---] engagements
"SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:35Z 14K followers, [---] engagements
"This cohort represents some of the BEST SaaS companies. The market is WORRIED that the industry's 80% gross margins are not sustainable since AI agentic (autonomous) software is willing to price at 45% margins. PARADIGM SHIFT . BAD FOR PRIVATE CREDIT Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17% $WDAY Workday: -21% $CRM Salesforce: -26% $ADBE Adobe: -26% $CSU Constellation Software: -29% $DOCU Docusign: -31% $NOW ServiceNow: -35% $MNDY Monday: -41% $TEAM Atlassian: -46% $HUBS Hubspot: -51% https://t.co/1cAIbxEbrI Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17% $WDAY"
X Link 2026-01-15T16:32Z 14K followers, 11K engagements
"SaaS Private Credit ALERT $NMFC is managed by New Mountain Capital. NMC is a very successful tech PE firm ($30bn AUM) with a smaller credit biz ($10bn AUM) of which $3ish bn of assets are managed by BDC. The BDC has a large % of SaaS loans which often are PIK loans since companies are pre-EBITDA. $NMFC is more levered than avg BDC and heavier in PIK. Prudently they stated in their earnings release in early Nov that they were going to attempt to sell $500mm of their private loans to reduce PIK and leverage via an auction conducted by Evercore. Their BDC tades at 20+% discount to NAV. The"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:36Z 14.1K followers, 17.8K engagements
"DUDE JOSH HARRIS is DOWN on SEMI-LIQUID EVERGREEN NON-TRADED BDCs What else do you need to know The GATING is going to be MASSIVE"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:44Z 14.1K followers, 164.1K engagements
"PRIVATE BDC's are going get MASS REDEMPTIONS unless PUBLIC BDC's prices rebound quickly. PUBLIC BDC's are trading at a median 20+% discount to NAV. But PRIVATE BDCs are "promised" quarterly liquidity at NAV . SUBJECT TO A 5% GATE . no biggie BREIT gated in '22 HOWEVER "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 238.2K engagements
"$OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of stock is restricted Reverse Vol Washing 10.8% becomes tradeable each month for next [--] months which is a huge technical overhang causing BDC to trade at 77% of NAV . plus 13% of Loans are PIKing . https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992734611856666912 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992734611856666912"
X Link 2025-11-23T23:18Z 14.1K followers, 67.3K engagements
"Given HY spreads are at tights and Lev Loan market had been trading over PAR this priced action in SaaS LEV LOAN is NOTEWORTHY DOWN [--] POINTS on average on some BIG DEALS. $BIZD reflecting some pain . $OTF making new lows Gradually then Suddenly"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:21Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"$OTF getting smoked on SaaS weakness IRR from INCEPTION in AUG '18 to NOW: 4.70% . GOLDEN AGE OF PRIVATE CREDIT $OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of stock is restricted Reverse Vol Washing 10.8% $OTF Blue Owl Tech Finance Corp went public in June after being private for [--] years (by design) IRR from INCEPTION in AUG' [--] to Friday's close: 5.71% DURING TECH INVESTING BOOM and GOLDEN AGE OF PC But at least 76% of"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:12Z 14.1K followers, 11.1K engagements
"Zito is a very TALENTED TRADER . many in PC are ex-bankers/structurers. GOOD TRADERS take LOSSES when FACTS CHANGE. Non-traders extend and pretend. When VOL is RISING TRUST the TRADERS If he is asking "IS SOFTWARE DEAD" then time to pay attention"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:52Z 14.1K followers, 40.7K engagements
"The credit market's tremendous growth during the last [--] years was fueled by almost universal belief in some narratives. These narratives started as assumptions but over time became "undisputed truths". In my experience credit crises occur when these "truths" turn out to be false"
X Link 2020-03-19T13:03Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@RaoulGMI @dailydirtnap @TgMacro @CMcgarraugh @jimcramer @APompliano Raoul's brilliant comment that $BTC is the most reflexive set up that he has ever seen personally gave me more insight than anything that I have read or viewed concerning crypto. Here is my thought process: And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on. And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to"
X Link 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"So to me all the major "fundamentals" of $BTC lend themselves to be very reflexive to positive price action . Thank Raoul for the comment and motivation to increase my position"
X Link 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"To me the most perplexing aspect to the $GME saga is that the company hasn't issues any shares/converts . WTF . to me that seemed like the only easy trade"
X Link 2021-02-02T21:14Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
") SOFTBANK CDS $SFTBY could be the biggest tell if credit markets have a true meltdown. So far the widening has been orderly and new issue markets in HY and Lev Loans are open. This morning quoted at [---] bps +40 bps on the day Pretty wide for a credit rated Ba3/BB+"
X Link 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"6) However if private and public growth multiples keep contracting Softbank could get ugly quickly. Besides a decent amount of debt I suspect accounting practices would come under scrutiny. Therefore $SFTBY CDS is worth following"
X Link 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"I can't think of a more basic measurement of risk for a bank's assets than DV01 which is the dollar value change of the assets for a [--] basis point move in interest rates. $SIVB's DV01 was around -$5mm per [--] basis point move which is massive. Did the regulators sign off on that"
X Link 2023-03-14T16:15Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"1) This article explains some of the risks of shadow banks but misses a huge risk. It fails to mention that all private credit funds use leverage in order to be able to generate net returns of 8-10% to their investors. @boazweinstein https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 663.8K engagements
"2)The biggest and best managers get that leverage by using the CLO markets to get term financing. Therefore their assets (private loans) match their liabilities. However most managers get financing lines from the Street. Those lines are subject to strict COVENANTS"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements
"3) So while the financing lines might have a maturity which appear to match the assets (private loans) the financing can be REDUCED or PULLED if the private credit fund starts experiencing defaults in its loan portfolio"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 19.4K engagements
"4)So a typical $1bn PC fund will make $2bn of private loans and thus borrow $1bn from the sell side. As defaults are realized the Streets will enforce their covenants and make the fund pay back some portion of the line. Many funds are now fully invested and have NO CASH"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 18.5K engagements
"5)So if a fully invested PC fund has its financing line cut by the Street. The manager will be forced to sell private loans to pay back the money borrowed on the line. The Street has little patience when they sense a position that they are financing is posing risk to them"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 17.2K engagements
"6)But private loans to date rarely trade. The few trades that have happened are club deals (more than [--] lender). Much of the market is bilateral deals (1 lender) which means the borrowers financials are not known to any other potential buyers"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements
"7)Currently the street is not set up at all to help facilitate a forced sale risk transfer. However chaos is the mother of invention when there is blood in the street. So the loans will be sold but the prices will be very distressed"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 25.6K engagements
"8)The results will be ugly and eye opening for the Street PC fund managers and PC LPs. Additionally the forced selling will be reflexive and cause more lines to be reduced and more forced selling"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements
"9) Forced selling into a market with zero liquidity would have wide ranging ramifications"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 20.5K engagements
"@KvetchMacro @boazweinstein The default cycle has started. Q1 of '23 was the highest number of defaults since '10. The interest rates on all loans is higher. Most private credit is floating rate which was great until the Fed raised rates"
X Link 2023-04-28T03:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@FarinaccioSean @boazweinstein Shorting BDCs is a full time job. Lots of negative carry and risk of getting borrow pulled"
X Link 2023-04-28T04:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@pkan90 @boazweinstein They have been amending and extending but the economy is slowing and the refinancing rate is much higher so defaults are happening"
X Link 2023-04-28T04:11Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@pkan90 @boazweinstein The Street definitely does not want this market to implode but the Street will always save itself as a lender regardless of the ramifications for a market"
X Link 2023-04-28T04:16Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Flattered to be interviewed by one of my favorite podcasters. Thank you @patrick_oshag https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A"
X Link 2023-05-30T17:39Z 14.1K followers, 22.9K engagements
"Alpha in distressed debt investing is much harder to find now that Reorg Research leveled the playing field. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it"
X Link 2023-06-16T22:00Z 14.1K followers, 25K engagements
"1. Good article discussing the strain that higher rates put on the ability for levered PE-backed companies to cover interest expenses. Current all-in interest costs for middle market companies is around 12% given rise in LIBOR/SOFR. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge"
X Link 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements
"5. My point is that paying 12% for debt makes the path for success for middle market PE deals much narrower and the probability of defaults much higher. Rating agency cited in article thinks 15% of MM PE companies will not be able cover interest expense"
X Link 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Jared never disappoints with his original insights. I've always found it interesting that people harbor animosity against banks but not insurance companies. Bank CEOs = millionaires Insurance CEOs = billionaires Anyone ever try to get a claim paid lately I've always found it interesting that people harbor animosity against banks but not insurance companies. Bank CEOs = millionaires Insurance CEOs = billionaires Anyone ever try to get a claim paid lately"
X Link 2023-06-27T16:35Z 14.1K followers, 10.2K engagements
""Gradually then suddenly" are the words of Hemingway in The Sun Also Rises when a character is asked how he went bankrupt. This concept is key to understanding sudden volatility (change over time) both good and bad . tech adoption tipping points revolution . study calculus This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX"
X Link 2023-07-03T14:39Z 14.1K followers, 15.8K engagements
"same with HY bonds and Leveraged Loans vs Private Credit How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG"
X Link 2023-07-08T15:42Z 14.1K followers, 27.7K engagements
"A thread on some basic facts on CLO market: 1)The leveraged loan market is $1.7trn in size doubling in size in last [--] years. 70% of the loans are held by CLOs. Asset managers love issuing CLOs to boost AUM. IMHO the biz is tough for all but a big few but that's another thread"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, 57.4K engagements
"2)CLO managers are buyers of incremental loans when they can successfully place the debt and equity tranches of a new CLO deal. So therefore if CLO tranche spreads widen out in the secondary market due to selling pressure the arbitrage of issuing a new deal fails to work"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"3)CLO managers cant place new CLOs and therefore are not buyers of the new issue leveraged loans. Their decision is primarily based on the economics of the securitization as opposed to if they believe the leveraged loan market to be rich or cheap"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"4)In this regard CLO managers decision to buy is passive and binary in nature much akin to the equity index fund managers decision to buy or sell is solely based on inflows or outflows of funds"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5)However equity index funds represent 30% of the equity market while CLOs own 70% of the loan market. Therefore when the CLO machine is turned off issuing new leveraged loans becomes very difficult potentially causing a credit crunch"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"6)What would cause selling pressure in the secondary market for CLO tranches Increased defaults. Defaults are up this year but still around 2% Lower recoveries of defaulted loans. Recoveries this year are around 40% as opposed to historically 65% but still a small sample size"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"7)Buyers of AAA tranches leaving the market or decreasing appetite. The triple AAA tranche is the biggest tranche representing 40% of the CLO capital structure. Big banks are the primary buyers. Japanese banks have been some of the biggest buyers over the last [--] years"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"8)Japanese banks have massively reduced appetite as yields has risen in Japan. US Banks are still buyers but at wider levels. Any pressure on bank balance sheets or better opportunities in AAA securities like agency RMBS (historical wides) decreases appetite"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"9)Just pointing out that a clustering of defaults with lower recoveries and some pull back from banks could cause a major market to freeze quickly and reflexivity works quickest in credit markets"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Every good idea on Wall St becomes bastardized due to greed . history rhymes"
X Link 2023-11-27T15:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@midtown_rob I am friends with this gentleman. I play hoops with him and he can still ball. Sneaky good jumper off the dribble from [--] feet. Shocked that he is 72"
X Link 2024-01-28T14:58Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements
"@midtown_rob Old mans game . [--] and over . below the rim"
X Link 2024-01-28T15:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The gentleman being interviewed is a friend of mine. We plays hoops together and besides being a very nice person he is an elite baller for his age"
X Link 2024-01-28T19:41Z 14.1K followers, 44.2K engagements
"I have been investing in start-up and private companies for almost [--] years. Overall my record is mediocre at best and I have now vowed to stick to areas where I do better (credit special sitch value macro). Here are some lessons that I have learned:"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, 34.6K engagements
"1. Envy plays a much bigger factor in doing dumb investments in private marketts than public markets. Everyone is chasing the 1000x"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"2. Realize you are a part-time amateur competing against smart pro's that are spending all their working time sourcing and vetting deals. Assume if you are seeing the deal than they have passed or would never even consider"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"4. If a company is willing to pay 13+% interest they will default 80+% of the time. Make sure that your credit agreement is legit"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5. If the founder's exit strategy is to sell to a strategic pass"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"6. 95% of start-ups need more money and take longer to become profitable than they originally project"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"7. Don't worry about not having enough exposure since you almost always get another chance to invest in the next round"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"9. The older I get the more that I appreciate simplicity and liquidity in more own portfolio"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"10. If people know that you have some money they will seek you out to invest in their company. Working on your delivery to be able to say "no" graciously is time well spent"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:54Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I have had the good fortune of being invited as a guest on friends' private jets. Here is my take on proper PJ Etiquette: [--]. Say "yes" and minimize your questions to dates and departure time. If you decline you might not get asked again"
X Link 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, 12.2K engagements
"11. Thank the pilots/attendant by name. [--]. Have cash handy to tip baggage handlers. [--]. Show sincere gratitude to your host. Inspired by the OG PJ hitchhiker JD"
X Link 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"A great listen . Proud to call Sean a friend One of my favorite conversations in memory @seanbfeeney left finance to build THE budding restaurant group (Lilia Misi Fini) in NYC with chef Missy Robbins No matter what you do this is worth your time I think their story will inspire everyone https://t.co/tZUR7Ht6h4 https://t.co/P8LCmYXvXU One of my favorite conversations in memory @seanbfeeney left finance to build THE budding restaurant group (Lilia Misi Fini) in NYC with chef Missy Robbins No matter what you do this is worth your time I think their story will inspire everyone"
X Link 2024-03-27T12:45Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"My brother Liam is [--] today. He has been a SAT tutor bartender 2x magazine writer PE analyst CDS broker 2x HF execution trader day trader and insurance salesperson. Currently he is co-GP and co-operator of [--] car washes and has never worked harder"
X Link 2024-03-29T15:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"1. I just read this book which is [--] years old so may be late to the party. It is a bit technical with many players so a tough slog if you are not familiar with credit markets but a must read for anyone involved in credit. some thoughts below: https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 66.9K engagements
"2. This saga marked the beginning of a paradigm shift in distressed mkt. Balance sheet and skills required to be a successful distressed investor were dramatically raised. Very savvy players were pitted against Apollo and each other. If you weren't on the inside good luck"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"3. After Caesar's every PE sponsor when experiencing stress in a port co asks themselves "What would Apollo do" If their creditors are not experienced with in or out of court restructuring IMHO PE sponsors are going to have upper hand in extending their option "
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 10.4K engagements
"4. Even the sharps in distressed can get tattoed. Some of players in Caesar's got burned by tactics used in J Crew bankruptcy and copied in Petsmart and NMG. TPG was sponsor in J Crew and Apollo's partner in CZR"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5. Elliott won in Caesar's on many trades but particularly CDS trade but then were loser on Winstream CDS trade. GSO lost on CZR CDS trade but won on HOV CDS trade against Solus (who won on CZR trade by buying 1st and 2nd liens)"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"6. Distressed investing's evolution is akin to professional poker. Once there were a few sharks and many fish and now many sharks pitted against other. Foot note to @CorneliaLake on analogy"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"7. Makes me think of Mike Vranos quote from mid 90s on RMBS market. We're not trying to outsmart the smart guys; we're trying to sell bonds to the dumb guys. When no dumb guys game is lot harder"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"8. Opinions on ethics aside Apollo "lost" in the end but they still won because they demonstrated that they would whatever it takes to maximize their option as equity owner and raised $25bn for their next PE fund in '17 which was largestt ever"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@junkbondanalyst Obviously Apollo god of the Sun is the sponsor"
X Link 2024-04-08T19:15Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"If these deals keep getting more common a good chance that a negative reflexivity kicks the snot out of the credit markets. New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe https://t.co/l3q4kqMT8i New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe"
X Link 2024-04-17T00:50Z 14.1K followers, 15.2K engagements
"A hill that I will die on: I don't care if we are talking public or private credit. If your a creditor at par getting paid PIK interest sucks in the long run over enough different loans/bonds positions. The debtor is not paying you cash for a reason . they can't afford it"
X Link 2024-04-17T17:11Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements
"S&P research article below on adjusted EBITDA aka EBITDA addbacks. They conclude that leverage is 2-3 turns higher two years later since adjustment not realized. How does that affects a company's ability to service debt Quick thread: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240327-leveraged-finance-adding-up-ebitda-addback-study-shows-moderate-improvement-in-earnings-projection-accuracy-13045496#::text=In%20general%2C%20S%26P%20Global%20Ratingsand%20marketability%20of%20a%20transaction"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The best piece that I have read about debt in a long time. And Housel is such an elegant and efficient writer. https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/ https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/"
X Link 2024-05-14T17:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly . Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies"
X Link 2024-05-30T18:52Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Tough day for just about every investor but at least Private Credit marks are UNCHED"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:03Z 14.1K followers, 101.1K engagements
"@CliffordAsness As you know as well as anyone Sharpes of [--] are to be trusted like Nigerian princes promising 100% return for a [--] day loan"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:25Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit bears have had their eyes on $PSEC for a couple of years. if BDCs were a high school class $PSEC might be voted most likely to not succeed. Gradually then suddenly Regardless of your take on $PSEC very good article by Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:44Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"IMHO if you aren't listening to @patrick_oshag podcast you aren't fully trying to get better at whatever game you are playing. He routinely drops nuggets of insight/wisdom like this one which makes you realize that you need to keep learning. The astounding efficiency of the human brain and the way babies and toddlers can learn: GPT3 took [---] million kWh to train. Converted to calories and assuming 2k calories/day that's [----] years. think about what kids learn in [--] From discussion with @TerranMott this morning The astounding efficiency of the human brain and the way babies and toddlers can"
X Link 2024-08-22T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"EXTEND and PRETEND is the biggest worry in Private Credit. How do PC/BDC funds extend and pretend PIKs BDC analyst estimates that 17% and growing of public BDC's assets are PIKs. Problem for BDC is that PIKs count as income which needs to paid out as a div so leverage"
X Link 2024-08-28T15:41Z 14.1K followers, 13.1K engagements
""irrelevant immaterial non-burger" Nice friendly exchange between $PSEC's CEO and a WFC research analyst on today's earnings call 😅🤣 https://t.co/qsqbm58rzc Nice friendly exchange between $PSEC's CEO and a WFC research analyst on today's earnings call 😅🤣 https://t.co/qsqbm58rzc"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This dude is giving off some Dick Fuld vibe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call"
X Link 2024-08-30T11:49Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"if this graph is true bearish for credit ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing according to data from Similarweb compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts I do think LLMs have https://t.co/m7HsJVme8Z ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing according to data from Similarweb compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts I do think LLMs have"
X Link 2024-09-07T11:54Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements
"Good time to launch the secondary trading of private credit"
X Link 2025-04-03T12:58Z 14.1K followers, 11.8K engagements
"On tough days I think about this yarn: At a party Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal Joseph Heller that their host a HF manager had made more $$ in [--] day than Heller had earned from Catch-22 in total. Heller replies Yes but I have something he will never have ENOUGH"
X Link 2025-04-03T15:14Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"If you employ margin or in a carry trade (including long credit) you are short vol. The longer this high vol persists the greater chance of forced selling"
X Link 2025-04-08T18:20Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"In the last [--] days I saw my [--] hoops teams (Duke and Knicks) lose when one had a 97.1% and other 99.7% win probability but at least private credit marks are still PAR"
X Link 2025-05-22T19:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"20 betas working out of a strip mall in King of Prussia rated [----] private credit deals . sounds like a solid foundation for the underpinnings of the US capital markets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/private-credit-ratings-egan-jones-deals-raise-wall-street-scrutiny https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/private-credit-ratings-egan-jones-deals-raise-wall-street-scrutiny"
X Link 2025-06-02T16:59Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"So a [--] year old Private Credit Fund has to roll 90% of its assets to a Continuation Vehicle but we are in the Golden Age of Private Credit The goal when lending money is getting paid back from borrower not roll forever. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:00Z 14.1K followers, 49.4K engagements
"90% OF LOANS ARE BEING ROLLED [--] YEARS LATER"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"When it comes to PRIVATE CREDIT I think RETAIL is the SMART MONEY. WHY is RETAIL the SMART MONEY because they are SELLING BDC EQUITIES are a FURIOUS rate despite stock market highs and public market tights. Let me explain why they are selling and why they may be CORRECT:"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, 69.5K engagements
"1. Problems in older loans are increasing forcing lenders to extend maturities and let borrowers PIK interest. Pay In Kind interest is not cash but counts as income for a BDC. So BDCs have less cash coming in to pay dividends"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"2. However oddly new deal spreads are tighter given lack of new M&A by PE sponsors in middle market. PE exits have been slower and buyout math not as compelling given private market multiples still high. So new loans spreads tighter due to competition. less income for BDC"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"3. Fed funds has been cut and some more cuts coming so SOFR lower and projected to be lower in future. Lower SOFR is bad for BDCs because their dividends are fixed rate and part of net income is floating rate. Lower SOFR means less net income for BDC"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"4. BCRED largest private BDC just cut it's dividend. Since BDC is private and "trades"/redeems subject to a gate at NAV the cut didn't affect its price/NAV"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5. RETAIL sees the writing on the wall of LOWER INCOME means BDC dividend coverage is getting tight and BDC's will be CUTTING DIVIDENDS in the future and they are SELLING because they CAN"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"6. Institutional Investors in PC FUNDS or PRIVATE BDCs are STUCK and HOPING that their PAR MARK is REAL until it isn't. Maybe they will be bailed out at a [--] point discount by some dumb CONTINUATION FUND vehicle"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"7. Now Alt Asset Managers equities are dirtnapping . Soros' theory of reflexivity is starting to take hold"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"BREIT (a private REIT) had assets (CRE) that it could sell at or even ABOVE the mark. Private BDCs have 5-10% BSLs which have liquidity NEAR the Mark for NOW. BUT the rest of the assets PRIVATE LOANS have ZERO LIQUIDITY ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK. SO IF "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 17.3K engagements
"You own Oak Tree Strategic Credit Fund (private) which just cut its dividend and you see the very comparable OCSL trading at 73% OF NAV. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO REDEEM AND "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 18.6K engagements
"The PRIVATE BDCs aka INTERVAL FUNDS aka Asset/Liabilty MISMATCHES are much bigger than public BDCs. For example BXSL has $10ish bn AUM and BCRED has $75bn AUM . They do own some % of BSLs aka Lev Loans so BKLN is a SHORT amongst many other things if GATES BECOME THE NORM"
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements
"Together with rivals like KKR Apollo and Starwood these semiliquid funds have raised hundreds of billions in capital in less than a decade faster than almost any other corner of finance Highlighting BREIT and SREIT managers stressed that . https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare"
X Link 2025-10-17T13:57Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Loan was marked at [---] and then ZERO . Gradually then Suddenly RECOVERING ZERO for secured loan is a rare occurence Means the underlying business was asset light Lending to a PE valuation as opposed to asset coverage is a big PC underappreciated risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks"
X Link 2025-11-10T16:08Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Non-traded BDC with quarterly liquidity at NAV has been gated because GP cannot meet redemptions. So instead of selling assets like BREIT did GP wants to merge this entity 🧵 Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit https://on.ft.com/43tojgw https://on.ft.com/43tojgw"
X Link 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, 13K engagements
"With Public BDC which trades at 20% discount . which sucks for the investor and not what they signed up for Why NOT SELL ASSETS to meet redemptions at NAV Because they CANT SELL ASSETS (unlike BREIT) anywhere near the mark. Trend starting here for non traded BDCs"
X Link 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@junkbondinvest Step [--] is so awesome"
X Link 2025-11-16T21:26Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Good move by $OWL to call off merger and not subject the holders of OBCD II to a 20% haircut but questions remain: How do they meet redemptions Sell assets (probably not since bids will suck) lever up Will redemptions pick up massively I bet YES https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:29Z 14.1K followers, 16.2K engagements
"AI is 100% going to cause massive VOL. Some companies will win big and some will die. The worst place to be is the lender to the losers . capped upside and big downside. So HIGH VOL is bad for lenders to SaaS. My opinion is that $APO and $BX are superior investors to $OWL . $OTF could have a very tough time. Apollo reportedly cut their software exposure by almost half during [----] after starting the year with 20% concentration in the sector AI fears are increasingly driving private investments away from traditional software https://t.co/1iMCyTlCeo Apollo reportedly cut their software exposure"
X Link 2025-12-13T19:56Z 14K followers, 14K engagements
"Love this mental framework . I started my career during the throes of the GFC crisis working on CDOs / CLOs / RMBS / CMBS. This gave me one of my earliest mental models which I light-heartedly call everything is bond math - the ability to see that most financial assets with streams of cash flows are I started my career during the throes of the GFC crisis working on CDOs / CLOs / RMBS / CMBS. This gave me one of my earliest mental models which I light-heartedly call everything is bond math - the ability to see that most financial assets with streams of cash flows are"
X Link 2025-12-14T22:25Z 14.1K followers, 16.9K engagements
"Gradually then Suddenly . The Negative Convexity of Vol Washing in Private Credit Cant wait until other PC Managers say this portfolio is an isolated issue A BlackRock private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its net assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results https://t.co/t34n12WRlb A BlackRock private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its net assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results https://t.co/t34n12WRlb"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:01Z 14.1K followers, 31.9K engagements
"@LOGOinvestor Yes but its holdings are private loans that stay marked at [---] until they get marked way down . public BDCs are part of PC AUM"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:21Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@LOGOinvestor $KKR manages $FSK that chart doesnt exude confidence. agree that $APO and $BX are good managers but lots of bad to mediocre managers in PC"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:38Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@LeylaKuni I have traded/invested in credit for [--] years . recovering ZERO on a 1st lien loan is RARE the low recoveries are more troubling to me than the quantity of defaults"
X Link 2026-01-24T21:25Z 14K followers, [---] engagements
"@LeylaKuni Agreed . Renovo is emblematic that some terrible underwriting has been done in PC"
X Link 2026-01-24T21:34Z 14K followers, [---] engagements
"YES only 8% of AUM is SOFTWARE but 23% of AUM is STAKES in GPs of Alt Managers . which also have a BIG DELTA to software"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:29Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements
"If net flows of non-traded BDCs become negative for a few quarters managers will face a CHOICE: SELL PRIVATE LOANS or GATE. I believe that they will GATE. Selling assets to meet redemptions would only cause redemptions to further increase. The loans are marked at [---] but a great bid for a private loan would be in low 90s. If good loans are sold close to [--] the stated NAV is lower but the "market perceived" NAV is much lower. Redemptions spike. Their public stock prices get hit since AUM and fee incoming is going down. GATING is the logical choice to selling. since the bids for the best loans"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:31Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"1) This article explains some of the risks of shadow banks but misses a huge risk. It fails to mention that all private credit funds use leverage in order to be able to generate net returns of 8-10% to their investors. @boazweinstein https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0emod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 663.8K engagements
"PRIVATE BDC's are going get MASS REDEMPTIONS unless PUBLIC BDC's prices rebound quickly. PUBLIC BDC's are trading at a median 20+% discount to NAV. But PRIVATE BDCs are "promised" quarterly liquidity at NAV . SUBJECT TO A 5% GATE . no biggie BREIT gated in '22 HOWEVER "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 238.2K engagements
"Tough day for just about every investor but at least Private Credit marks are UNCHED"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:03Z 14.1K followers, 101.1K engagements
"1. I just read this book which is [--] years old so may be late to the party. It is a bit technical with many players so a tough slog if you are not familiar with credit markets but a must read for anyone involved in credit. some thoughts below: https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X https://www.amazon.com/Caesars-Palace-Coup-Billionaire-Corruption/dp/163576677X"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, 66.9K engagements
"When it comes to PRIVATE CREDIT I think RETAIL is the SMART MONEY. WHY is RETAIL the SMART MONEY because they are SELLING BDC EQUITIES are a FURIOUS rate despite stock market highs and public market tights. Let me explain why they are selling and why they may be CORRECT:"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, 69.5K engagements
"A thread on some basic facts on CLO market: 1)The leveraged loan market is $1.7trn in size doubling in size in last [--] years. 70% of the loans are held by CLOs. Asset managers love issuing CLOs to boost AUM. IMHO the biz is tough for all but a big few but that's another thread"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, 57.4K engagements
"The gentleman being interviewed is a friend of mine. We plays hoops together and besides being a very nice person he is an elite baller for his age"
X Link 2024-01-28T19:41Z 14.1K followers, 44.2K engagements
"9) Forced selling into a market with zero liquidity would have wide ranging ramifications"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 20.5K engagements
"So a [--] year old Private Credit Fund has to roll 90% of its assets to a Continuation Vehicle but we are in the Golden Age of Private Credit The goal when lending money is getting paid back from borrower not roll forever. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902165054/en/Benefit-Street-Partners-Closes-%242.3-Billion-Private-Credit-Continuation-Vehicle-Led-by-Coller-Capital"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:00Z 14.1K followers, 49.4K engagements
"2)The biggest and best managers get that leverage by using the CLO markets to get term financing. Therefore their assets (private loans) match their liabilities. However most managers get financing lines from the Street. Those lines are subject to strict COVENANTS"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements
"3) So while the financing lines might have a maturity which appear to match the assets (private loans) the financing can be REDUCED or PULLED if the private credit fund starts experiencing defaults in its loan portfolio"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 19.4K engagements
"8)The results will be ugly and eye opening for the Street PC fund managers and PC LPs. Additionally the forced selling will be reflexive and cause more lines to be reduced and more forced selling"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 21.1K engagements
"4)So a typical $1bn PC fund will make $2bn of private loans and thus borrow $1bn from the sell side. As defaults are realized the Streets will enforce their covenants and make the fund pay back some portion of the line. Many funds are now fully invested and have NO CASH"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 18.5K engagements
"7)Currently the street is not set up at all to help facilitate a forced sale risk transfer. However chaos is the mother of invention when there is blood in the street. So the loans will be sold but the prices will be very distressed"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 25.6K engagements
"The credit market's tremendous growth during the last [--] years was fueled by almost universal belief in some narratives. These narratives started as assumptions but over time became "undisputed truths". In my experience credit crises occur when these "truths" turn out to be false"
X Link 2020-03-19T13:03Z 14.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Good move by $OWL to call off merger and not subject the holders of OBCD II to a 20% haircut but questions remain: How do they meet redemptions Sell assets (probably not since bids will suck) lever up Will redemptions pick up massively I bet YES https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/blue-owl-calls-off-merger-of-its-two-private-credit-funds-after-announcement-rattles-stock-sources-say.html"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:29Z 14.1K followers, 16.2K engagements
"@midtown_rob I am friends with this gentleman. I play hoops with him and he can still ball. Sneaky good jumper off the dribble from [--] feet. Shocked that he is 72"
X Link 2024-01-28T14:58Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements
"6)But private loans to date rarely trade. The few trades that have happened are club deals (more than [--] lender). Much of the market is bilateral deals (1 lender) which means the borrowers financials are not known to any other potential buyers"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 16K engagements
"I have been investing in start-up and private companies for almost [--] years. Overall my record is mediocre at best and I have now vowed to stick to areas where I do better (credit special sitch value macro). Here are some lessons that I have learned:"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, 34.6K engagements
"5)So if a fully invested PC fund has its financing line cut by the Street. The manager will be forced to sell private loans to pay back the money borrowed on the line. The Street has little patience when they sense a position that they are financing is posing risk to them"
X Link 2023-04-27T20:55Z 14.1K followers, 17.2K engagements
"The PRIVATE BDCs aka INTERVAL FUNDS aka Asset/Liabilty MISMATCHES are much bigger than public BDCs. For example BXSL has $10ish bn AUM and BCRED has $75bn AUM . They do own some % of BSLs aka Lev Loans so BKLN is a SHORT amongst many other things if GATES BECOME THE NORM"
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements
"Non-traded BDC with quarterly liquidity at NAV has been gated because GP cannot meet redemptions. So instead of selling assets like BREIT did GP wants to merge this entity 🧵 Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit https://on.ft.com/43tojgw https://on.ft.com/43tojgw"
X Link 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, 13K engagements
"EXTEND and PRETEND is the biggest worry in Private Credit. How do PC/BDC funds extend and pretend PIKs BDC analyst estimates that 17% and growing of public BDC's assets are PIKs. Problem for BDC is that PIKs count as income which needs to paid out as a div so leverage"
X Link 2024-08-28T15:41Z 14.1K followers, 13.1K engagements
"1. Good article discussing the strain that higher rates put on the ability for levered PE-backed companies to cover interest expenses. Current all-in interest costs for middle market companies is around 12% given rise in LIBOR/SOFR. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/private-equity-firms-exposed-by-unhedged-risk-interest-rates-surge"
X Link 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 16.5K engagements
"A hill that I will die on: I don't care if we are talking public or private credit. If your a creditor at par getting paid PIK interest sucks in the long run over enough different loans/bonds positions. The debtor is not paying you cash for a reason . they can't afford it"
X Link 2024-04-17T17:11Z 14.1K followers, 11K engagements
"same with HY bonds and Leveraged Loans vs Private Credit How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero. https://t.co/Zb4Up6qUwG"
X Link 2023-07-08T15:42Z 14.1K followers, 27.7K engagements
"How a publicly traded company goes to zero vs how a privately held company goes to zero"
X Link 2023-07-08T15:05Z 112.4K followers, 701.3K engagements
"You own Oak Tree Strategic Credit Fund (private) which just cut its dividend and you see the very comparable OCSL trading at 73% OF NAV. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO REDEEM AND "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 18.6K engagements
"Flattered to be interviewed by one of my favorite podcasters. Thank you @patrick_oshag https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ZfD5Y58uyg9tyIGghFwHmsi=3rogzsj0SheBDObss85_9A"
X Link 2023-05-30T17:39Z 14.1K followers, 22.9K engagements
"Good time to launch the secondary trading of private credit"
X Link 2025-04-03T12:58Z 14.1K followers, 11.8K engagements
"BREIT (a private REIT) had assets (CRE) that it could sell at or even ABOVE the mark. Private BDCs have 5-10% BSLs which have liquidity NEAR the Mark for NOW. BUT the rest of the assets PRIVATE LOANS have ZERO LIQUIDITY ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK. SO IF "
X Link 2025-10-10T18:44Z 14.1K followers, 17.3K engagements
""Gradually then suddenly" are the words of Hemingway in The Sun Also Rises when a character is asked how he went bankrupt. This concept is key to understanding sudden volatility (change over time) both good and bad . tech adoption tipping points revolution . study calculus This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX This is an excellent visual https://t.co/0l5xLlX5PX"
X Link 2023-07-03T14:39Z 14.1K followers, 15.8K engagements
"This is an excellent visual"
X Link 2023-07-02T15:39Z 29.1K followers, 1.4M engagements
"THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly . Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies"
X Link 2024-05-30T18:52Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Alpha in distressed debt investing is much harder to find now that Reorg Research leveled the playing field. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it. One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it"
X Link 2023-06-16T22:00Z 14.1K followers, 25K engagements
"One of our analysts just messaged me that no fewer than [--] open laptops are currently on the Reorg homepage on the Hampton Jitney I finally know Ive made it"
X Link 2023-06-16T11:27Z [----] followers, 57.7K engagements
"7. Now Alt Asset Managers equities are dirtnapping . Soros' theory of reflexivity is starting to take hold"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"In the last [--] days I saw my [--] hoops teams (Duke and Knicks) lose when one had a 97.1% and other 99.7% win probability but at least private credit marks are still PAR"
X Link 2025-05-22T19:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
") SOFTBANK CDS $SFTBY could be the biggest tell if credit markets have a true meltdown. So far the widening has been orderly and new issue markets in HY and Lev Loans are open. This morning quoted at [---] bps +40 bps on the day Pretty wide for a credit rated Ba3/BB+"
X Link 2022-05-06T15:39Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"9)Just pointing out that a clustering of defaults with lower recoveries and some pull back from banks could cause a major market to freeze quickly and reflexivity works quickest in credit markets"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"If these deals keep getting more common a good chance that a negative reflexivity kicks the snot out of the credit markets. New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe https://t.co/l3q4kqMT8i New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe"
X Link 2024-04-17T00:50Z 14.1K followers, 15.2K engagements
"New restructuring term just dropped. How long before the new hunter-gatherer tool or as the great minds at Kirkland like to refer to them new technology (lol) is implemented as a market standard in the distressed universe"
X Link 2024-04-16T19:46Z 17.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"4. If a company is willing to pay 13+% interest they will default 80+% of the time. Make sure that your credit agreement is legit"
X Link 2024-02-06T23:47Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5. My point is that paying 12% for debt makes the path for success for middle market PE deals much narrower and the probability of defaults much higher. Rating agency cited in article thinks 15% of MM PE companies will not be able cover interest expense"
X Link 2023-06-22T14:17Z 14.1K followers, 21.9K engagements
"@KvetchMacro @boazweinstein The default cycle has started. Q1 of '23 was the highest number of defaults since '10. The interest rates on all loans is higher. Most private credit is floating rate which was great until the Fed raised rates"
X Link 2023-04-28T03:55Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Loan was marked at [---] and then ZERO . Gradually then Suddenly RECOVERING ZERO for secured loan is a rare occurence Means the underlying business was asset light Lending to a PE valuation as opposed to asset coverage is a big PC underappreciated risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marks"
X Link 2025-11-10T16:08Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"My brother Liam is [--] today. He has been a SAT tutor bartender 2x magazine writer PE analyst CDS broker 2x HF execution trader day trader and insurance salesperson. Currently he is co-GP and co-operator of [--] car washes and has never worked harder"
X Link 2024-03-29T15:28Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit bears have had their eyes on $PSEC for a couple of years. if BDCs were a high school class $PSEC might be voted most likely to not succeed. Gradually then suddenly Regardless of your take on $PSEC very good article by Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-06/why-prospect-capital-s-8b-private-credit-strategy-is-raising-concern"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:44Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@pkan90 @boazweinstein The Street definitely does not want this market to implode but the Street will always save itself as a lender regardless of the ramifications for a market"
X Link 2023-04-28T04:16Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"7. Makes me think of Mike Vranos quote from mid 90s on RMBS market. We're not trying to outsmart the smart guys; we're trying to sell bonds to the dumb guys. When no dumb guys game is lot harder"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:43Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"1. Problems in older loans are increasing forcing lenders to extend maturities and let borrowers PIK interest. Pay In Kind interest is not cash but counts as income for a BDC. So BDCs have less cash coming in to pay dividends"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"90% OF LOANS ARE BEING ROLLED [--] YEARS LATER"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This dude is giving off some Dick Fuld vibe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/prospect-ceo-lashes-out-at-wells-fargo-analyst-on-earnings-call"
X Link 2024-08-30T11:49Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@RaoulGMI @dailydirtnap @TgMacro @CMcgarraugh @jimcramer @APompliano Raoul's brilliant comment that $BTC is the most reflexive set up that he has ever seen personally gave me more insight than anything that I have read or viewed concerning crypto. Here is my thought process: And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on. And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to"
X Link 2021-01-03T17:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity. This is the most reflexive set up Ive ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay. I wont be easy to hold on"
X Link 2020-12-30T03:01Z 1.3M followers, [---] engagements
"3. Fed funds has been cut and some more cuts coming so SOFR lower and projected to be lower in future. Lower SOFR is bad for BDCs because their dividends are fixed rate and part of net income is floating rate. Lower SOFR means less net income for BDC"
X Link 2025-10-09T15:33Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"With Public BDC which trades at 20% discount . which sucks for the investor and not what they signed up for Why NOT SELL ASSETS to meet redemptions at NAV Because they CANT SELL ASSETS (unlike BREIT) anywhere near the mark. Trend starting here for non traded BDCs"
X Link 2025-11-16T16:22Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"S&P research article below on adjusted EBITDA aka EBITDA addbacks. They conclude that leverage is 2-3 turns higher two years later since adjustment not realized. How does that affects a company's ability to service debt Quick thread: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240327-leveraged-finance-adding-up-ebitda-addback-study-shows-moderate-improvement-in-earnings-projection-accuracy-13045496#::text=In%20general%2C%20S%26P%20Global%20Ratingsand%20marketability%20of%20a%20transaction"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:23Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@FarinaccioSean @boazweinstein Shorting BDCs is a full time job. Lots of negative carry and risk of getting borrow pulled"
X Link 2023-04-28T04:02Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I have had the good fortune of being invited as a guest on friends' private jets. Here is my take on proper PJ Etiquette: [--]. Say "yes" and minimize your questions to dates and departure time. If you decline you might not get asked again"
X Link 2024-03-07T00:29Z 14.1K followers, 12.2K engagements
"8)Japanese banks have massively reduced appetite as yields has risen in Japan. US Banks are still buyers but at wider levels. Any pressure on bank balance sheets or better opportunities in AAA securities like agency RMBS (historical wides) decreases appetite"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"5)However equity index funds represent 30% of the equity market while CLOs own 70% of the loan market. Therefore when the CLO machine is turned off issuing new leveraged loans becomes very difficult potentially causing a credit crunch"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Every good idea on Wall St becomes bastardized due to greed . history rhymes"
X Link 2023-11-27T15:24Z 14.1K followers, [----] engagements
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