# ![@jonchimpo23 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120.png) @jonchimpo23 Jon Chimpo

Jon Chimpo posts on X about liquidity, china, tariffs, balance sheet the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] -47%
- [--] Month [-------] +317%
- [--] Months [-------] -59%
- [--] Year [-------] +5,064%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] -16%
- [--] Month [---] +239%
- [--] Months [---] +15%
- [--] Year [-----] +3,249%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.74%
- [--] Month [---] +8.50%
- [--] Months [---] +18%
- [--] Year [---] +2,866%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  54.71% [stocks](/list/stocks)  11.76% [countries](/list/countries)  7.06% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  3.53% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  3.53% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.18% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.59% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.59%

**Social topic influence**
[liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 11.18%, [china](/topic/china) 5.29%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #2213, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) #2103, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #2600, [gdp](/topic/gdp) 4.71%, [debt](/topic/debt) #2269, [this is](/topic/this-is) 4.12%, [trade](/topic/trade) 3.53%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 3.53%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@longrivercm](/creator/undefined) [@mrderivatives](/creator/undefined) [@stealthqe4](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@amitisinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@spencerhakimian](/creator/undefined) [@illiquidinsight](/creator/undefined) [@bfd19002956](/creator/undefined) [@barchart](/creator/undefined) [@lynaldencontact](/creator/undefined) [@chamath](/creator/undefined) [@watcherguru](/creator/undefined) [@gubloinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@narcissistx10](/creator/undefined) [@goldbugger](/creator/undefined) [@cherrygarciafan](/creator/undefined) [@thelonginvest](/creator/undefined) [@peruvianbull](/creator/undefined) [@web4stuffbryson](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)](/topic/$snow) [Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)](/topic/$shls) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [ZetaChain (ZETA)](/topic/$zeta) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)](/topic/$pep) [First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)](/topic/$fslr) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@chamath I was wrong. This marks the peak of private credit. 💀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1919451901759811964)  2025-05-05T17:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Second order derivatives of power generation are where Im adding currently as the next trade people crowd into. LNG and solar are needed first as nuclear takes a lot more time (and is crowded). For solar enter Shoals Technologies Group- $SHLS. Its been largely beat up by analysts predicting margin pressures from tariffs but with a recent upgrade that fear is likely leading to overly bearish earnings estimates. Excellent set up. And while tariffs are affecting them look at the money being spent on infrastructure They are absolutely passing those on to the data centers given high demand. Chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1974474674202452392)  2025-10-04T14:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Round-tripped. Added 2k more shares at [----]. Let's try this again. High conviction in thesis remains. $SHLS Second order derivatives of power generation are where Im adding currently as the next trade people crowd into. LNG and solar are needed first as nuclear takes a lot more time (and is crowded). For solar enter Shoals Technologies Group- $SHLS. Its been largely beat up by https://t.co/NzYgKfEtGU Second order derivatives of power generation are where Im adding currently as the next trade people crowd into. LNG and solar are needed first as nuclear takes a lot more time (and is crowded)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1996605095203479617)  2025-12-04T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Quietly gaining momentum with a breakout and more analyst upgrades 😈 $SHLS Round-tripped. Added 2k more shares at [----]. Let's try this again. High conviction in thesis remains. $SHLS https://t.co/I4ztqE7H3G Round-tripped. Added 2k more shares at [----]. Let's try this again. High conviction in thesis remains. $SHLS https://t.co/I4ztqE7H3G"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2011106369043382778)  2026-01-13T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Is the street finally figuring out the catalyst high silver costs brings for $FSLR The biggest knock on them has been no moat in the highly competitive solar space. But that ends now They use a different tech without significant silver. So while others will see margins compress $FSLR gets pricing power. This comes as they are expanding US manufacturing to 14GW while getting OBBB benefits on deductions. Data centers need power. All kinds. Estimates have 12.5x multiple for [----] earnings. Well below their historical 21x. Solar panel production costs are skyrocketing due to silver: Silver now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2016576130862420049)  2026-01-28T18:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Big earnings coming up obviously Will be interesting to see. Im not a seasonality nut but I use as a guide. It is largely from earnings guidance behavior Typically in Q1 guidance is conservative to setup a rally. Often the same in Q3. Its called the earnings fishhook. Now external factors skew it so its never a given. Will we see again in Q1 Im not sure this time. The cynic in me says yes. But not for Mag7 trade (already beat up). Why do I say this Well because they all sandbag in Q1 so employees get really cheap stock options before stocks recover rest of year. Thats the main reason the fish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2016613100582302152)  2026-01-28T20:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Logical move to remove potential related party conflicts of interest while going public"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2016980234680025286)  2026-01-29T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PeterSchiff $EPGIX has an insanely high net expense ratio while underperforming the miners index. Pass. Would rather go indices. Not to mention the capital gains distributions you may receive for gains you didnt even participate in. ETFs are so much more tax efficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2017301516940366250)  2026-01-30T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@gnoble79 I think you are missing a key piece on the Warsh hawk vs. dove piece. He is a Fed Balance Sheet Hawk (larger driver of debasement) He is a FFR Dove The biggest question lies in what he will do with the Fed B/S"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018389927516360936)  2026-02-02T18:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"As the debate heats up on Warsh and whether he is a dove or a hawk I want to reiterate the [--] main monetary policy tools the Fed uses. (I could go on about all the new facilities etc. but this piece is VITAL to know) [--]. Fed Funds Rate [--]. Fed Balance Sheet (Quantitative Easing/Quantitative Tightening) Warsh is vocal on shrinking the balance sheet. So debate all you want on if he cuts or hikes FFR. Thats not where the liquidity fear comes from. It comes from REDUCING THE FED BALANCE SHEET https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018391105578905884 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018391105578905884"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018391105578905884)  2026-02-02T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You know if they make an SLR adjustment to exempt treasuries could significantly offset the reduction Treasuries in the Fed balance sheet 🤔🤔🤔 I kind of moved on from this but perhaps this is the regime change. It makes too much sense now. Free up bank capital to go directly to the productive economy while shrinking the Fed balance sheet without draining liquidity. The Feds new Vice Chair Michelle Bowman got sworn in today. While its easy to focus on her hawkish monetary policy stance (only one to vote for Sept. [--] cuts) her dovish stance on bank deregulation is the 🔑 I dont expect SLR to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018481798368378938)  2026-02-03T00:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Im going to sound crazy saying this but in June the Fed will enter a new regime and shrink the balance sheet (not the crazy part) At the same time liquidity will FLOOD into the real economy. (Crazy part) I know it sounds like an oxymoron. But its all about [--] letters that will be well known soon enough. The 🔑 is the SLR and USTs being exempt from the denominator. IYKYK Mark it 🎯 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018490656923013483 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018490656923013483"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018490656923013483)  2026-02-03T01:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LeylaKuni That was the entire syndicator playbook in DFW. Swapping hot potato driving cap rates to low 3s on 80s vintage value adds. As one of them once said Fixed rate is for suckers Wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018506316763767066)  2026-02-03T02:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I think the market is wrong on death to software. I see AI as enhancing the foundation layer through APIs. Its edge dev. And while some creative destruction likely occurs Im focused on those who manage the data moats and can benefit greatly from AI on top of their existing stack. $SNOW fits the bill. Worth a nibble Probably 🤷♂. Be aware of gap below at $160 Ugly chart well below [---] day SMA now. Sentiment at extreme lows. And finding those who stay have profit margin expansion and productivity gain potential. Plus a projected [--] yr 41% CAGR on EPS isnt so bad either if they execute 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2018797269563416956)  2026-02-03T21:22Z [---] followers, 14.8K engagements


"As the current environment paints a bleak picture I am contrarian my liquidity map by connecting the following dots. [--]. +++ Targeted Fiscal stimulus (already known) - Long term- OBBB subsidizes manufacturing/infrastructure/industrial via 100% bonus depreciation - Near term bazooka- Pull forward via refunds for amortization from phase outs from 2022-2024 [--]. +++ Bank Deregulation- Remove USTs from SLR denominator [--]. +++ More FFR cuts- Reduce pressure on capital intensive businesses [--]. - - - Reduce Fed Balance Sheet- Controlled letting maturities roll off balance sheet With it comes targeted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2019252395989975206)  2026-02-05T03:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Trying to make back their $VIX shorts that were still net short [-----] contracts as of this Tuesday per CFTC 😂 Squeeze em"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2019944623485964397)  2026-02-07T01:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Liquidity map has changed. OBBB fiscal stimmy bazooka might give it a brief run but then its not a good environment. Everyone thinks rates but its QE that pumps $BTC. Excess liquidity. Fed will use all [--] main tools (yes 3) [--]. Cut FFR to help overrestricted essentials [--]. Shrink B/S (let a portion roll off) QT [--]. Remove USTs from SLR denominator and end IORB. Force banks to lend to the real economy. Productive. Ultimately flipping it on its head. End of the top down ample reserve regime weve had for [--] years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019947705506660502"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2019947705506660502)  2026-02-07T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$WMT is priced for perfection. And by perfection I mean infinite demand Unhinged from reality. $WMT The chart is going parabolic. And no one knows exactly why. How do you explain a Forward P/E double that of basically every Magnificent [--] ex Tesla. HOW https://t.co/1F9N98Hsdf $WMT The chart is going parabolic. And no one knows exactly why. How do you explain a Forward P/E double that of basically every Magnificent [--] ex Tesla. HOW https://t.co/1F9N98Hsdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020005422602899743)  2026-02-07T05:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Late cycle for the restructuring we will see. Early cycle for the real economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020166471528144997)  2026-02-07T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Temporary but could be powerful depending on the OBBB $250B consumer liquidity bazooka via tax refunds (heavily from raising SALT limit 4x higher). Although on the flip evidence is overwhelming pointing to non-essential demand rolling over. New Fed regime focused on essentials and the real economy: [--]. Lower FFR- Helps capital intensive biz like construction which are funded with floaters) [--]. Bank Deregulation- Remove USTs from SLR denominator and potentially end IORB- Encourage banks to free up capital to lend to the real economy [--]. QT- Shrink the B/S to moderate credit expansion. Wont sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020173009458184277)  2026-02-07T16:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@longriverCM @WatcherGuru TLDR- excess liquidity going poof. Wildcard for temp bounce or run is what happened before May This is the targeted fiscal: https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1940538888621359307s=46 Proposed Senate OBBB changes that drive private business growth: [--]. Bonus depreciation- OBBB allows businesses to immediately deduct 100% on machinery equipment and vehicles used in manufacturing construction etc. in the year it is placed in service. *Senate makes https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1940538888621359307s=46 Proposed Senate OBBB changes that drive private business growth: 1."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020173547558089134)  2026-02-07T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Andrew99Blue @longriverCM @WatcherGuru Dont disagree liquidity itself broader issue. I just view crypto itself as heavily personal just due to how its majority of adoption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020178465249718633)  2026-02-07T16:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliquidInsight The lesson is everything is cyclical and vintage diversification matters. Past is the past. I love my [----] PE deals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020239901074366501)  2026-02-07T20:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EmmanuelMacron Rerun including domestic investment 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020286588245393697)  2026-02-08T00:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@longriverCM @KobeissiLetter Feels like consumer discretionary will be facing some headwinds NT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020299646242107577)  2026-02-08T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@longriverCM @KobeissiLetter And tax changes benefit targeting same areas as AI. Dont see how they do as it takes time to trickle into wage growth (maybe not for sure). Unless more populist policy comes like tariff refunds. Def not for that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020302694511211007)  2026-02-08T01:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MPelletierCIO Disagree. The totality of where the new Fed regime policy is heading it does not bode well for gold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020326561669607724)  2026-02-08T02:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@longriverCM @Gubloinvestor Guess who $ZETA builds on top of 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020329853078159540)  2026-02-08T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@longriverCM @Gubloinvestor 😂. Builds on top of $SNOW. Ill have to dig into $ZETA more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020330393346478241)  2026-02-08T02:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Kalshi Per technical definition there will be no recession in Headline GDP announced by NBERs But weve been experiencing rolling sectoral recessions the past [--] years. Now comes the consumer recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020333081354449145)  2026-02-08T03:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If I look at the policy agenda the main one is driving growth for reindustrializing/infrastructure build out. Fiscal is known with OBBB bonus depreciation interest expense change from EBIT to EBITDA and R&D 100% vs [--] yr amortization. For the Fed weve been trained to not incorporate bank deregulation just FFR and B/S expansion/shrinking. But if you look at all [--] the most logical policy would be FFR down. Remove USTs from SLR denominator/end IORB to make banks lend to the productive economy. Manage credit expansion with QT. Bank treasury demand replaces Fed repurchasing. Would be bottom up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020337885296070738)  2026-02-08T03:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Definitely not a fix if refunds. Also was talking the 2k checks but also if SCOTUS does refunds of IEEPA same thing there. Nothing is sustainable And agree. Supply is also behind from the essential economy being overrestricted. Supply chains have longer and variable lags to Fed policy. Why I turned stance to cuts in Mayish after being against them. Higher for longer only further restricting growth in the real economy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020347997020663843 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020347997020663843"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020347997020663843)  2026-02-08T04:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Rumor has it that if you win the Yes wager you get an automatic ticket to heaven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020625259292983341)  2026-02-08T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NarcissistX10 @Mr_Derivatives 💯 As compute demand continues to outpace supply a native multi-cloud data warehouse is 🔑. They are the foundation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020850579514306731)  2026-02-09T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"🎯 And just as data is lagged so too is supply but by years not months. The final deliveries from the COVID multifamily overbuild just hit. Now there is nearly just as severe of a supply cliff for the next [--] years. The Feds Keynesian lean has exposed a blind spot to the long and variable lags of supply to monetary policy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020883520143438325 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020883520143438325"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020883520143438325)  2026-02-09T15:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@yieldsearcher Very risky strategy for China who has a trade surplus dependent economy and a bleak domestic consumer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020939383826939998)  2026-02-09T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FinanceLancelot What happens next is contango continues to eat your lunch 😂. Then next reverse split 😂😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2020984866234662940)  2026-02-09T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Its like the space race Sputnik was DeepSeek and the moon is agentic humanoid robots. The diverse innovation from the space race was incredible. Cant lose The race is on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021086360199889056)  2026-02-10T04:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Id take it a step further and say consumer inflation is inflecting lower because of tariffs. They are a more powerful crusher to consumer demand than rate hikes ever were. And with the Keynesian lean of the Fed ignoring this phenomena it is why we now find ourselves in the unbalanced tug and pull of long and variable lags in supply adjustment. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021241127928479951 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021241127928479951"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021241127928479951)  2026-02-10T15:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Id take it a step further and say consumer inflation is inflecting lower because of tariffs. They are a more powerful crusher to consumer demand than rate hikes ever were. Which were never enough with the continued fiscal spending and overdone QE. And with the Keynesian lean of the Fed ignoring this phenomena it is why we now find ourselves in the unbalanced tug and pull of long and variable lags in supply adjustment. This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs. Consumers are super price sensitive. This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021241415288627260)  2026-02-10T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Pressure is on China is not benefiting from this. When your economys largest driver of growth is a massive trade surplus a strengthening yuan is not good. It pressures their exports. It brings overcapacity risk. Meanwhile their domestic consumer is struggling mightily. Only 40% of their GDP. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021249372684537876 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021249372684537876"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021249372684537876)  2026-02-10T15:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Because of distortions created via QE (only began post 2008) and structural deficit spending. FFR effectiveness has waned dramatically vs. history. Also the Feds Keynesian lean has blinded them to the deflationary force tariffs bring. And most importantly from the long and variable lags of monetary policy. Essentials to which supply takes a long time to adjust to rates is severely pressured for upcoming inflation due to higher for longer. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021253221537251579 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021253221537251579"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021253221537251579)  2026-02-10T16:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1. Only 40% of Chinas GDP is from domestic consumer. [--]. Massive reliance on a trade surplus for GDP growth. [--]. They are making this statement to try to convince people they want a stronger Yuan when in all actuality they want it weaker [--]. Desperation attempt to spur domestic consumption which has continued to work against them. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021265464043725137 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021265464043725137"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021265464043725137)  2026-02-10T16:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"GDP has lowered the entirety of [----]. And Q4 finished below target. And this comes after they injected massive fiscal stimulus in [----]. Im not so sure trade surplus isnt still tied to workarounds and transshipment but even if you take it at surface level little to none of that stimulus trickled into increasing the domestic consumer. (Hence 5.4% Q1 4.6% Q4). They have been trying to fix it for years they are deep into the long-term project with little to nothing to show for it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021288024366321802 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021288024366321802"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021288024366321802)  2026-02-10T18:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DudeWhoInvests Do you not understand that purchasing power and USD compared to a basket of currencies ($DXY) are not the same thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021289051995636068)  2026-02-10T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Correct you cannot end this idiotic ample reserve monetary policy regime overnight. The top down approach has been a complete failure. They will look to adjust SLR denominator on USTs and unwind the bank reserve balances voluntarily held at the Fed. And as such they will begin to shrink the Feds B/S to moderate the credit expansion if successful. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021296992228647045 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021296992228647045"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021296992228647045)  2026-02-10T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"And yet I find it odd you were just saying China is benefiting from a stronger Yuan. Factual evidence points to the contrary. High unemployment slowing GDP growth and a weak consumer. All of their fiscal stimulus from [----] hasnt done a thing to meaningfully boost domestic consumption. A stronger yuan is crushing China. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319412997873929 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319412997873929"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021319412997873929)  2026-02-10T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Good rage bait. Ill bite. Imagine ignoring the structural risks embedded in China completely. Chinas economy grew 4.5% YoY in Q4 below target all while firing unprecedented fiscal liquidity bazookas. Domestic consumer sentiment remains historically low and only accounts for 40% of GDP. Manufacturing PMI in contraction. . A stronger yuan will continue to pressure Chinas trade surplus which is fully reliant on an illusion of infinite global demand. When that falters they have no domestic consumption to pick up the slack. Overcapacity hits hard and fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021363550091084279)  2026-02-10T23:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@goldbugger @LynAldenContact Negatory. Peter is famously myopic. Both are hard in practice. And both face the opposite problem. They have tried to divert to consumers domestically and it has not worked. Higher trade surpluses support that very fact. Consumer sentiment in the pits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021374365611458623)  2026-02-11T00:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BFD19002956 @LynAldenContact $300B Evergrande default would beg to differ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021376102560825576)  2026-02-11T00:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BFD19002956 @LynAldenContact Thats a single sector. And domestic. And sentiment remains in the pits. And all that savings that was in a house is still destroyed wealth. Its still felt regardless. How controlled of a demolition can they have if they are increasingly reliant on external economies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021379523015499865)  2026-02-11T00:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Barchart Consumer credit contraction incoming. Business credit expansion also incoming. Position accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021416344361787685)  2026-02-11T02:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My guess is number [--] and [--]. Meaning its part of the planned term restructuring but is targeted for liquidity albeit not acute pressure. Think its driven by the tighter liquidity due to the overcrowded bear steepener while needing to support the other yen carry trade (clarifying as it all gets lumped into one by many) What I am not talking about- Speculative yen carry- unhedged what drove Yenmageddon and April unwinds. Based on margin and BOJ What I am taking about- The hedge yen carry- It is borrow in yen to go L US TBonds using JGB bonds as collateral with the yen being hedged. But that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021420143406956943)  2026-02-11T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StealthQE4 💯 Not a fan of higher SALT tbh. Hopefully no $2k tariff dividend checks happen either. But the 100% bonus depreciation for manufacturing 100% on R&D vs [--] yr interest expense EBITDA vs EBIT I am all for that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021421009723851235)  2026-02-11T03:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@longriverCM @Barchart Cynically it feels like investors are the bail out. The 401k push thankfully has largely failed. But they might just free up bank lending and investors are left with the bags of private credit and they move on 🫣"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021425841692184893)  2026-02-11T03:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$CAT $760 🤯 Second order AI CapEx beneficiary. Question isnt to add imo its played out. Question is which third orders are set to run from the Btw I ripped the bandaid and entered in early July. Timing wise it wasnt cheap but I didnt want to sit on the sidelines waiting for a target that may not have come. But unfortunately I also never bought more. So while I emotionally wish I had more (like we all do when it runs) I am glad I didnt just wait to then watch my thesis play out without having any exposure. That feeling is much worse. Been there too many times. But if my NT thesis didnt play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021608166367072270)  2026-02-11T15:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hoomansv @RealJimChanos [--------] paper trade accounts not included*"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021758177616793871)  2026-02-12T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bank stress less than youd think. Capital stacks/equity toast from 2020-2023 vintage but the average deal is not a big loss from the bank side. It is a flush/capital stack issue from 2020-2023 vintage. Heavy amount of distress is 1980s value add that were highly levered floating rate. Kicked the can with sucker voluntary cap calls in [----] and know its fucked so letting go. Even then bank loss 15%ish https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022025050023702991 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022025050023702991"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022025050023702991)  2026-02-12T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lagged sentiment. The most publicized delinquencies that are showing poorly (office and multifam) are recovering imo. This is the final remnants of 2018-2020 vintage office and 2021-2022 MF (and even 2023) particularly value add. The motto was Stay alive til [----] with sucker voluntary calls but gig is up. Irony is big warehouse industrial is about to take a bath where everyone was crowding to. 🤦♂ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022057310814638513 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022057310814638513"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022057310814638513)  2026-02-12T21:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives I havent looked much into tbh so my take might be wrong so call me out if so but seems like $APP can be replaced 🤷♂ Started scooping up SaaS with $SNOW HODL $PLTR what else 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022156339133526155)  2026-02-13T03:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Feels like this Software meltdown is another DeepSeek moment. There were some incredible buys when that story broke. On the flip its uncomfortable haha. But thats probably a sign. What other names am I missing 🤔🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022157233820512378)  2026-02-13T03:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@longriverCM @KobeissiLetter Did you see their projections Interesting take by them ha. Deficit big issue but hyperbole also bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022290467262517731)  2026-02-13T12:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NickWoolos Their systems are dinosaurs. BofA hasnt finished sucking the life out of ML yet. When they change the name to Bank of America Wealth Management then the time will come 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022292754420691183)  2026-02-13T12:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Much better imo. For the GOOGL [---] bps above [--] yr UK Gov bonds is more like investment grade because thats a tight spread for [---] yr duration. I believe its more about the locked in cash flow than anything. Outside perhaps $ORCL I think it continues to rate well for big tech. Like for $AMZN spending $200B this year. Whats unsaid often is they also have a $244B AWS backlog. Using some leverage with fortress balance sheets is low risk and wise. Especially with OBBB changes on interest expense being based on EBITDA (after capex with 100% depreciation) vs. EBIT. Simply put why pay 100% cash when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022691994766549014)  2026-02-14T15:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hu15110711 @charliebilello This 💯 Aggregate demand is broken and its baffling to see the Feds lack of regard for tariffs being deflationary on non essentials. They are blinded by an illusion of infinite demand while missing completely in the long and variable lags of the supply side on essentials"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022713842879385891)  2026-02-14T16:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Fiscal welfare has disguised an unsustainable consumer bubble as resilience. Need to prick the non essential demand bubble. And evidence grows the time has come. Look at Pepsi and Frito Lay Remove subsidized consumer and they instantly cut prices 15% 🤯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022763788345446594)  2026-02-14T20:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Confirmation bias is impossible to fully remove but this man is full of it 🫢"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023404928237199528)  2026-02-16T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Proposed Senate OBBB changes that drive private business growth: [--]. Bonus depreciation- OBBB allows businesses to immediately deduct 100% on machinery equipment and vehicles used in manufacturing construction etc. in the year it is placed in service. *Senate makes permanent vs [----] house expiration [--]. Interest Expense- Shift to 30% deduction being on EBITDA vs. EBIT. This is big as EBITDA excludes depreciation and amortization (and other shall we say questionable exclusions) *Senate makes permanent vs [----] expiration vs house expiration [--]. R&D Expensing- restores from [--] yr amortization to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1940538888621359307)  2025-07-02T22:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So Warsh gets touted as a Hawk. He will make a point on reduction of the Fed balance sheet. Senate will eat it up. It is the antithesis to enabling Trumps agenda. Then after he takes the role of the chair he will exempt treasuries from SLR denominator and use QT to control the credit expansion. Bottom up approach to run it hot. Ballsy. But makes complete sense for Trumps policy goals. Not good for $GOLD trade. Great for $COPPER. Great for infra buildout. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018498665870918086 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018498665870918086"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018498665870918086)  2026-02-03T01:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Been seeing a lot of Twain quotes out there. Noise everywhere about the Dot Com Bubble [---]. [----] [---]. But if I were forced to pick a historical period to rhyme with it would be The Space Race. Deep Seek was the Sputnik moment and we will spend whatever it takes to win whatever AI ends up adding to society (the unknown). And while physical humanoid AI robots is the moon landing so much more diverse innovation came from the Space Race. In fact I looked it up. Found out key technologies developed from the space race include medical imaging techniques durable healthcare equipment artificial limbs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2019965879593668973)  2026-02-07T02:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Take a step back and understand FX dynamics for economies. When youre China and your economys largest driver of growth is a massive trade surplus a strengthening yuan is not good. It pressures their exports. It brings overcapacity risk. Meanwhile their domestic consumer is struggling mightily. Only 40% of their GDP. BREAKING: The Chinese Yuan has strengthened to [----] against the US Dollar the strongest since May [----]. The Yuan is now on track for its 7th consecutive monthly gain the longest streak since 2020-2021 up+5% since [----]. It has also been the 3rd-best-performing currency in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021249771227222317)  2026-02-10T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ive become much more bullish on certain parts of the economy that have struggled for years. The targeted biz OBBB is under appreciated although effectiveness depends on a politicized Fed. Also more bearish on others. Like consumer staples. Mid luxury goods. So tempting to want to short WMT lol. Rotation rotation rotation baby Market muted while under the hood theres big dispersion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021415434918973786 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021415434918973786"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021415434918973786)  2026-02-11T02:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We are seeing continued validation on the AI builders. The second and third order effects. And while power becomes a key topic during midterms one thing is evident. Right now the money is being spent and manufacturing/industrials/materials booming. Massive OBBB tailwinds. The difference this year is that performance will be on actual results not the promise of potential results [--] years from now You can debate all you want on the sustainability of CapEx but thats a question down the line. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021575097010581693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021575097010581693"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2021575097010581693)  2026-02-11T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"True. 2020-2022 DFW saw 1980s at 3.5% cap rates 😂 But they all have rate caps which is the issue as the hedge turned into massive repurchase requirements when swaps expired. Unfortunately some suckers fell for voluntary calls because they had to rebuy 2% SOFR caps. Now they know its toast. Cant raise. And banks require a new rate cap purchase not just going to a new rate. Wont put in their own partner loans. So RIP. But the stress broadly is less. Most non value add were 60-65% fixed rate at sub 3% so surviving with DSCR fine. Longer notes. Extract yield while exit valuation lower. Cap rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022026748288745793)  2026-02-12T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Deficit a problem but new CBO estimates are stupid. Its an oxymoron. Interestingly they project: [--] yr 4.30% rising to 4.40% 1.8% real GDP growth 2% inflation Fed Funds NO CUTS UNTIL 2032"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022290233631408286)  2026-02-13T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FibonacciInves1 The short interest from the bear steepener is wild. Clock is ticking to close it out. Everyone trying to figure out how to unwind when the curve flattens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022293408392294744)  2026-02-13T12:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Deficit is too structural @grok Unless they are willing to cut entitlements which is political suicide. Im not saying the deficit is not a big problem it is. But to long run assume 2% inflation with low growth with higher fed funds is an unlikely outcome. Shouldnt be a base case to assume low growth and a real fed funds that perpetually 1.25% below the assumed FFR. Thats a very unlikely and unsustainable assumption. So when I say hyperbolic its not saying dont worry about the deficit. Its more a jab at them making it worse by not addressing the actual structural issues."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022324664979038684)  2026-02-13T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliquidInsight @litcapital 💯 IPO market is broken. Got to see Bill Gurley speak late last year and he said there is roughly a 30% discount priced in when you IPO. That should be the cheapest capital you access. The archaic bidding system is broken"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022348317095526655)  2026-02-13T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"No deficit spending and QE will fuel the fire. Higher rates are brewing essentials inflation. Tariffs are already suppressing non-essential inflation. Its lagged in many areas and present in others. Aggregate demand model is broken. FFR is over redundant while continuing to choke off the productive economy. The real FFR is too high. And keeping them higher vs neutral will only further widen the wealth gap. It will all but gauruntee QE6 and more fiscal spending if this continues. Unless thats what you want. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022350313605214252"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022350313605214252)  2026-02-13T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@longriverCM $SNOW $NOW Then just $IGV 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022402771149033805)  2026-02-13T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good for $GOOGL on getting that filled. Wow. And remember that stuff is great for life insurance and pensions. Its not crazy or a scam. Now what happens to the doomer narrative when FCF improves dramatically because big tech is WISELY managing their balance sheet Big Tech bond issuance is flooding the market: The technology sector represents 11.8% of all private sector debt issuance so far in [----] the highest on record in data going back to [----]. This TRIPLES the percentage seen in [----] and is [---] percentage points above the previous https://t.co/KMbOBeSbK0 Big Tech bond issuance is flooding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022681233923215613)  2026-02-14T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This isnt validation of that. $AMZN has a $244B AWS backlog. Would you keep building or just let that future revenue go poof You have fortress balance sheets that are optimizing cash flow. Adapting to new tax policy. Couple things that changed- [--]. Interest expense deduction base on EBITDA (adding back in capex) vs. EBIT [--]. 100% bonus depreciation/100% R&D expensing Its a very wise use of capital. Not all leverage is evil. And guess what it will increase FCF where theres doom and gloom out there. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022767564649021520"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022767564649021520)  2026-02-14T20:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TBD but Id say a much higher probability that what you say is correct. Even in the low probability hypothetical event that no new advancements occurred compute demand doesnt go away. And that is where the bet is on not if we can achieve agentic AI. I also feel the $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT and $METAs of the world are already seeing gains as their massive customer moats are the lowest hanging fruit with application. I also feel the most applicable rhyming history would be the space race"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022770871765733827)  2026-02-14T20:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kdan1186 @StealthQE4 And also under the hood the net cost of capital is much less than the coupon on the paper due to the tax deductions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022771119686561924)  2026-02-14T20:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Because of fiscal welfare and constrained essentials. Crazy they remove the subsidized consumer and Pepsi cuts prices on frito lay products by 15% Plus CPI is so off. Like health care costs. They measure it by insurers retained earnings (premiums - claims paid)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022863870310727984)  2026-02-15T02:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"HSO but I think Truflation is quite accurate for goods. It shows non-essential demand finally breaking while essentials eat up the majority of income leaving very little discretionary. Consumer credit is also contracting. More auto loan declines refi declines and with 16% of student loans now hitting credit reports no more balance transfers. The private credit liquidity has dried up for banks to offload risk so they are tightening the belt on consumer. Spiraling. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022864827899674650 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022864827899674650"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022864827899674650)  2026-02-15T02:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Itsallafugazi23 @SpaceX Thats awesome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022865862235955361)  2026-02-15T02:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I think there will be a lot of dispersion. The real productive economy and the second/third order beneficiaries of data center infra have incredible tail winds with OBBB. It also brings net costs down for hyper scalers. And drives private investment. Strength showing in manufacturing industrials etc. On the flip consumer staples and consumer discretionary Im bearish on. Insane seeing $WMT at a [--] forward P/E. Pepsi just dropped prices 15% on frito lay. Past [--] years have seen sectoral recessions and it seems consumer finally will get hit while the productive economy recovers. TLDR- I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022867743553261779)  2026-02-15T02:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives I still feel for the actor who played Joffrey. He was such a good actor that he can never play another role because we all hated King Joffrey so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2022874687223574727)  2026-02-15T03:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Fiscal policy and policy goals of administrations are so key to implement into frameworks. Take this hyperscaler debt issuance freakout. They arent out of money you need to realize the after tax math changed and its also not just about the coupon. The cost of capital to borrow has materially changed with the Big Beautiful Bill. Biggest piece is it changed interest expense limit from being based on up to 30% of EBIT (2022-2024 rules EBIT is after capex) to 30% of EBITDA (before capex) Big Tech will optimize deductibility while regaining FCF by issuing debt. Its what we would call a well run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023060674939695368)  2026-02-15T15:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Remember its never coincidence. All started with HFs being historically net short $VIX Got blown up Start shorting stocks at record pace to offset $VIX bags Game of hot potato for who closes first Now crowding into the squeeze. So many HFs are a bunch of degenerates. $IGV 🚀 After Record Shorting Hedge Funds Bought The Most Tech Stocks Since [----] https://t.co/EyMRUfqB8T After Record Shorting Hedge Funds Bought The Most Tech Stocks Since [----] https://t.co/EyMRUfqB8T"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023069363201307019)  2026-02-15T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@cherrygarciafan Banks absolutely do all the heavy lifting. But its still important to understand how it all fits together. Youre basically saying the factory workers build the cars so ignore the engineers and the power grid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023080303829369157)  2026-02-15T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliquidInsight @debt_serious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023176558672793749)  2026-02-15T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Agree. Wise B/S optimization. Id add the why behind that is that the Big Beautiful Bill has materially changed B/S optimization. For the interest expense tax deductibility OBBB changed interest expense limit from being based on up to 30% of EBIT (2022-2024 rules) to 30% of EBITDA. Thats on top of back to 100% bonus depreciation and R&D. That is reason as to why the shift is just now gaining steam and not earlier. Its not because they are running out of money its because the net cost of capital has decreased meaningfully due to tax policy changes."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023056287567638726)  2026-02-15T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliquidInsight Overcrowding drives competition for bids Underwriting laxes to deploy capital crowding increases leading to unperfected covenants To remain competitive more fund leverage opacity hides cracks until its too late"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2023413336197796066)  2026-02-16T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@joeycannoli9 @NoLimitGains $565k if he reinvested it in SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/2012715549554262224)  2026-01-18T02:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter @elonmusk @DOGE This is the way. Economy has been heavily reliant on fiscal spending for growth past [--] years. Without spending tariffs are zero sum for inflation. The onshoring effects of tariffs will support labor markets for higher for long. How do you feel about the lag in between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889734499853881709)  2025-02-12T17:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter With cuts and gov spending not propping markets as well as RRP being drained liquidity is tight. To me crypto is a liquidity sponge that soaks up excess liquidity. Sign of tight times. Do you think China liquidity bazookas offset near term domestic liquidity crunch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894389361841504722)  2025-02-25T14:09Z [---] followers, 11.1K engagements


"@KobeissiLetter It has become correlated to risky assets because its correlated to personal liquidity not uncertainty. Uncertainty often leads to excessive fiscal stimulus where the correlation is drawn. But crypto is the sponge soaking up liquidity and there lies the proxy- liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1895108976356008362)  2025-02-27T13:49Z [---] followers, 10.9K engagements


"@KobeissiLetter New liquidity pools from sovereign nations and corporations changes the correlation meaningfully This could significantly lower the lag to M2 and evolve into an almost pure index of global liquidity Theoretically deliver stimulus AND strengthen balance sheet simultaneously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896262575605858812)  2025-03-02T18:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Yes. Weve been in a recession in the private sector for years if you remove fiscal stimulus. Fear is taking over after record speculation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896947562009247828)  2025-03-04T15:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Just finished college when it hit. Talk about a welcome to the real world moment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897461559485424074)  2025-03-06T01:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@amitisinvesting Curious why you think not Look at 2021-2024 spending. Market has been propped up through fiscal spending. The amount of bonds needing refinancing is due to this. So yes- globalist policy the made the post Covid annual budget soar to 6-7T annually yes. 100%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897748742792413206)  2025-03-06T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital True but it should be noted that the Treasurys fiscal year starts Oct. [--] Biden and Yellen shot their final liquidity bazookas and went on a spending spree. This doesnt take away from dire situation but annualizing that number isnt accurate either. A lot more to go though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1899896313073848759)  2025-03-12T18:52Z [---] followers, 12.6K engagements


"@TheLongInvest Its not Trumps economy yet. Have to flush out the false gains driven by gov spending to transition to an economy driven by innovation and the private sector"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900192058402394216)  2025-03-13T14:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Weve been in a crisis. A debt crisis. And yet its still not getting the attention it deserves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900220170473242865)  2025-03-13T16:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@amitisinvesting Didnt even use FSD Accelerated and engaged autopilot [--] seconds before then turns off right before impact. Sus. But sure great to have LIDAR since there are so many walls built on roadways painted to look like the background 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901666103899586654)  2025-03-17T16:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@patrickbetdavid Serious question- What does showing apartment (multifamily) loan delinquency rate have to do with supporting [---] million Americans are behind on their mortgage. Thats apples and oranges @CommunityNotes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906384768372998341)  2025-03-30T16:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Not wanting to short as margin req will prob triple but can they please begin options so I can buy some puts In all seriousness this is nuts. Id be weary of holding some bags buying in here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907076944216170580)  2025-04-01T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian What would happen if say nuclear energy and technology behind it were to prolifically grow Making energy costs materially lower While we focus on oil not being able to go lower due to costs to drill cheap energy would bring costs down while driving job and wage growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907480784878833991)  2025-04-02T17:10Z [---] followers, 22.8K engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives I mean he kinda is. Made all his riches off SPACs selling before company insiders could. Once a grifter always a grifter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908653042003550286)  2025-04-05T22:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Easy to forget you need a bigger return to make it back up Down 20% = 25% to break even. Down 50% = 100% needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909087034569879942)  2025-04-07T03:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian Its called a relief rally from being severely oversold. They can be short. Itll be a mix of negotiations but to bet fully on a broad delay is risky risky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909625533807178033)  2025-04-08T15:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@peruvian_bull Bingo you found it Zerohedge SOFR chart points to carry trade implosion. Their leverage Well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909834721967644933)  2025-04-09T05:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian Id say otherwise. Its actually very likely the treasury-cash-futures basis trade blew out All the signs are RIGHT in front of you SOFR swaps fell off a cliff yields began to rise sentiment down perfect storm $1.5T-$1.9T could be unwound. The Big [--] are major players"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909836809741164615)  2025-04-09T05:12Z [---] followers, 27K engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Bingo. Now the question is if the Fed had to step in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909940131894534316)  2025-04-09T12:03Z [---] followers, 21.9K engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Any chance I can call my broker and demand a trade correction for execution [--] hours ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910035276124365158)  2025-04-09T18:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter I think this was a much better decision rather than JPow being forced to bail out for all the wrong reasons. My biggest takeaway- liquidity is basically 0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910346696199975026)  2025-04-10T14:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Looking at it solely from EU perspective this would be detrimental to their auto industry. Not a wise move at all Strange"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910374089421971493)  2025-04-10T16:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@amitisinvesting Liquidity is GONE. Treasury carry trade 100% man. Got it pinned on profile TLDR: Hedge funds levered to the tits on $1.5T of UST (twice what China has) are unwinding. Real Action up starts at 11:45 if more margin calls happen. Tuesday up [--] bps in [--] seconds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910499353241800883)  2025-04-11T01:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge Says the man with the money printer 🙄"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912568258084974984)  2025-04-16T18:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter 🎯 More than anything if JPow steps in with QE stagflation narrative takes shape at greater magnitude. Quote of the day- US debt is not at an unsustainable level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912586282309501314)  2025-04-16T19:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge Lets not forget this gem perhaps the biggest fumble in misplaced conviction of all time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1913638387728216440)  2025-04-19T16:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Dominik17142779 @SpencerHakimian Not stupid man. USO is an ETF that owns oil futes. The price tanked but they had already rolled to the June contract which was $20 that day. Side note- those funds are garbage long term due to the cost of rolling the contracts every month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914136155177496839)  2025-04-21T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Ill never forget Maxine Waters asking Mr. big Bank what they are doing about student loans. Was 2019ish and she was head of the Committee of Financial Services Dimon: We havent been in student loans since the Gov took over all student loans in [----] Cant make this shit up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914514505297522819)  2025-04-22T03:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Shouldnt be a surprise. Treasury basis trade eroded months of demand by dumping 2x more than all of Chinas UST. UNBELIEVABLE the damage their leverage did to the bond markets. Rangebound between 400-450bps for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916265670670426542)  2025-04-26T22:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"So in the past couple weeks - SEC officially approved private credit ETFs - Fink pushing for private credit to be available in 401ks - Direct lending is struggling mightily. - Banks sitting on all time high exposure to revolving and auto Seems just a little too coincidental 😂 Shadow Banks rushing to bail out Commercial Banks via a fresh liquidity pool"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916656371652510073)  2025-04-28T00:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge They never could have afforded to 😂🤣😂🤣 Irony is the first dump was due to carry trade blowing up. It was due to necessity not a response to trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919127748041126223)  2025-05-04T20:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@chamath @hanzthehuman The ones you pushed to retail Yup If I had to bet youre prepping an interval fund hence the sudden casino stuff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919868099081240752)  2025-05-06T21:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@exec_sum Thats nutso Non-compete should be limited to soliting clients. Not taking a similar job or starting a biz is wild. And whats knowledge from job You cant trade or use analyst skills So vague"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920983122742530410)  2025-05-09T23:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Will never forget [--] years ago when she blasted all the big bank execs what they were doing about the student loan crisis. Thats [--] years after the gov took over. Dimons response 🤣 She was head of the House Committee of Financial Services at the time. How do you not know that 🤯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920990015191912469)  2025-05-09T23:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@adamcarolla Dont forget this gem @adamcarolla when she didnt know the gov took over student lending when grilling the banks as head of finance committee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920990495452352547)  2025-05-09T23:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I know you werent born yet but Kodak was THE maker of camera film. Then this thing came out called digital cameras. Blockbuster was the movie rental spot until NFLX came (mailing dvds). NFLX then adapted to streaming. Maybe Google can. But they also could be like Kodak to a degree. Yes they have other business lines but those would be trading at baked in high multiples. Declining search is trading at a lower multiple due to well founded growth concerns. Something Google search has NEVER faced before. Its quite logical why the P/E is where its at today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921258871814828034)  2025-05-10T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@peruvian_bull Insane they literally bought (by digitally creating money) 30% of the entire MBS market. Levered up housing 1.4x. They NEVER did that before [----]. Literally. Bernanke started the trend and any time housing stress shows they buy up more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922088685253648570)  2025-05-13T00:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter If we are just now acknowledging it as a wake-up call then thats the problem. Should have been taken seriously when S&P downgraded in [----]. The fact they are just now acknowledging this is a bigger problem than the downgrade itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923492312958620119)  2025-05-16T21:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter good thread But unfortunately you left out a third party who is also responsible. THE FED Notice a correlation on debt increasing to the Fed balance sheet By digitally creating money to purchase treasuries and federally guaranteed debt like MBS they enabled the spending without consequences until now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923724647268278400)  2025-05-17T12:57Z [---] followers, 10.5K engagements


"@amitisinvesting [--] very important facts 263% debt/GDP (before -.7% GDP growth just reported) 43%. Percentage of their debt the BOJ (Japans Fed) has purchased through QE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924302345355116572)  2025-05-19T03:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"They will. No matter what option they choose. Option 1- QE They must borrow more to pay the interest. To absorb supply they must initiate continued larger magnitudes of QE will pressure inflations and yields higher. Option [--] YCC (yield curve control)- They can set the rate which will crush investment and growth at which time they will need to issue stimulus and initiate QE to spur growth. I believe they are completely trapped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924307995262885947)  2025-05-19T03:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"They are truly on the verge of a debt spiral. They will have to go back to YCC and sacrifice growth and investment. In turn BOJ will have to initiate even more QE. This is proof that MMT is a farce and that QE is not an effective longterm solution Since Japan was the first to use large QE in [----] its effectiveness has continued to dwindle while larger and larger amounts are required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924809111218057563)  2025-05-20T12:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Gold Bonds Gold is absorbing the additional safe haven allocation that bonds used to be a larger part of. Also China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924939875838468249)  2025-05-20T21:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Even more incredible is the fact that the BOJ was able to just digitally created $4.1T worth of currency in order to purchase said bonds. They are only buyer on that list who can just create the capital required to purchase the securities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926354797105455337)  2025-05-24T19:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter BOJ policy is center stage. Do they try to regain control of yields or do they hike to combat inflation 🤷♂ If they hike we will soon find out how much of the yen carry was unwound in August [--] and April [--] and how much was reloaded in between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1926677517030547870)  2025-05-25T16:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@BoringBiz_ While claiming to have a super power called objectivity 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927471365403070843)  2025-05-27T21:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Too bad U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras has absolutely [--] ability to do anything. Court of International Trade who issued first order has exclusive rights. And they validated other ways for them to remain. But why would you consider actual facts or what was contained in ITC order 🤣🤣"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928142789734211674)  2025-05-29T17:33Z [---] followers, 10.5K engagements


"@SpencerHakimian 🤣🤣. Read slowly I know there are big words in here for you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928150224591089821)  2025-05-29T18:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"WOW This is way too big of a gap to just be from data collecting. [----] employment was nearly completely dependent on public job growth. Private sector has been struggling for years while federal/state/local government expansion has thrived. Is it fiscally responsible to rely on government job growth for the economy I think not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931010289186542040)  2025-06-06T15:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@JPATrades Clearly didnt think through the CS part of CSPs 😂😂😂 Should never just expect a written put to not be assigned early. RIP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931035747684848033)  2025-06-06T17:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"My problem with Tom Lee is he wants to have his cake and eat it too. He went silent after Liberation Day announcement when he said it would rip before it on that spaces. Then he said we got it wrong on the literal bottom when everybody said it would be Black Monday [---] Then he takes credit for making the right call ignoring that he caved at the bottom and takes all the credit. Am I missing something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931373106347626939)  2025-06-07T15:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"So much is wrong with your retarded take I cant even [--]. You can only offset passive losses with passive gains not to offset earned income. [--]. Where the fuck are you getting a .4% loan Youre assuming interest only floater I assume Your math does not math. If you do your own taxes IRS should audit you if this is your plan Youre giving terrible tax advice. And advice in general"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932850473402294299)  2025-06-11T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge If Israel strikes refineries deteriorating China/US trade talks is a big risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933625237012120016)  2025-06-13T20:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"3-5% of supply on an already sanctioned producer wont do that imo. Question is how does China replace their Iranian supply That determines the viability of blockading the Strait of Hormuz threat. If China goes to Russia (also sanctioned) the direct effect is mooted unless Strait of Hormuz is blocked since it wont effect China. If they go with ME it wont be blockaded. It drives prices more with increased demand China is Irans largest trade partner and their oil purchases are 30% of Irans GDP. But it would not be in Irans best interest to hurt their largest trade partner with a blockade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933936057147338816)  2025-06-14T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Correct it is the purest liquidity proxy my friend. It is a sponge that soaks up excess liquidity and wrings out when liquidity is scarce. Liquidity is tight. Tax refund liquidity bazooka is dried up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936823038558732762)  2025-06-22T16:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Dollar went on a wild ride after Trump won election just as gold tanked. Moves ahead of it too. If you look were only down 3% after round tripping Trump trade. I feel its nearing a bottom. It looks worse since it peaked around Jan [--] so to start the year its bad. But Q4 of [----] saw a similar move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940243459815662073)  2025-07-02T02:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Home prices reported lag. Its called smoothed returns. They take 6-12 months of sales data. With transaction volume down old sales have more weight than usual. Real price today likely lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940954976244969563)  2025-07-04T02:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Barchart Front loading the curve and stopping super long issuance not working. And BOJ still wants to taper lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944922165197070341)  2025-07-15T00:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes RIP to BOJ tapering plan. Front loading not working on super long. Completely trapped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944922561713701251)  2025-07-15T00:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter New liquidity pools being unlocked for $BTC is the 🔑 The liquidity sponge is growing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944951843353776192)  2025-07-15T02:47Z [---] followers, 17.7K engagements


"@amitisinvesting And demand is weakening fast. JPow behind the curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945464887997600224)  2025-07-16T12:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Wow hes really stepping out on a limb with that prediction 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946406096559648893)  2025-07-19T03:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter This will be a case study in economics of how too much stimulus distorts supply by fueling speculative overbuilding to the extreme. Causality; Excessive stimulus Supply Distortions Speculative Overbuilding Financial Crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951668322069553325)  2025-08-02T15:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Barchart RIP to all the people investing in SFR last year because its the safer part of the RE market 😳"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952859054864224559)  2025-08-05T22:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FCNightingale 18% funding ratio Thats pure insanity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952892894588686419)  2025-08-06T00:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I would say thats the popular opinion. The unpopular opinion is recognizing the reality that a perpetually strong dollar is a damaging paradox. It has hollowed out US manufacturing while enabling imported goods to grow rapidly. Its not to say tariffs are some golden answer and doesnt create pain. But the way things were also wasnt a long term solution either- unsustainable consumption. Without the AI boom wed be 100% fucked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953104566217523392)  2025-08-06T14:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Of course. Just different names. And dont forget the Treasury [--]. Fed doing so indirectly via interest on reserve balances and since they operate at a loss they print to make up the loss and pay interest. [--]. Treasury funding TGA via debt and drawing down. So tax refunds benefits etc. is new money flowing into the system. If why I was referring to the last round of refunds as a liquidity bazooka. M2 grew nearly 5% YoY PS- TGA drawdown and Reverse Repo offset more than the entirety of QT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954364779109179547)  2025-08-10T02:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@StealthQE4 HODL Because as illogical as it is the Fed does what the Fed wants and the ample reserve monetary supply regime isnt going away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955097909445197886)  2025-08-12T02:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives 25% of goods jump came from veggies Up 38.9%. Half of the services for trade services"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955975978959704469)  2025-08-14T12:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Im of the opinion that Sallie Mae enabled insane tuition inflation. Sad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957561189753315649)  2025-08-18T21:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LeStonkJames @TheLongInvest Fool thinks $PLTR is an LLM 😂😂😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957615888099877144)  2025-08-19T01:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@VladTheInflator You mean to tell me that health insurance hasnt gone down 19% over the past [--] years like they claim"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959792446407127199)  2025-08-25T01:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"For all those saying it blows up the yen carry trade thats very far from truth. They are margin loans Margin loans not set to the [--] yr I think most of what was left unwound April and has been unwinding since (see Yen movement unwinding strengthens yen). When BOJ hikes we will find out but if they reloaded yen would have plummeted. Yen fits in 90th percentile net long so that says such. Existing long term are hedged. For Japan Yield Curve Control artificially suppressed rates for [--] years and when they stopped it May [----] it all caught up. Years of deflation turned into inflation. 75% debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963611852891422894)  2025-09-04T14:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

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