#  @jakeallen3 Jake Allen Jake Allen posts on X about $dher, $stub, $maps, $mrvl the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +419% - [--] Month [------] -26% - [--] Months [-------] -18% - [--] Year [-------] +3,527% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +155% - [--] Month [--] +163% - [--] Months [---] +35% - [--] Year [---] +439% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.68% - [--] Month [-----] +0.31% - [--] Months [-----] +51% - [--] Year [-----] +304% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 33% [finance](/list/finance) 28% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 18% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 12% [countries](/list/countries) 2% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 2% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 1% [musicians](/list/musicians) 1% [currencies](/list/currencies) 1% **Social topic influence** [$dher](/topic/$dher) 11%, [$stub](/topic/$stub) #2, [$maps](/topic/$maps) 8%, [$mrvl](/topic/$mrvl) 7%, [ceo](/topic/ceo) 6%, [$lfmd](/topic/$lfmd) 6%, [$wex](/topic/$wex) 6%, [$iren](/topic/$iren) 5%, [business](/topic/business) 4%, [doj](/topic/doj) 4% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jackson_jo96163](/creator/undefined) [@jindacaninvest](/creator/undefined) [@cupofcoffeecap](/creator/undefined) [@tgordon67](/creator/undefined) [@telehinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@troyjfar](/creator/undefined) [@thelapurchaser](/creator/undefined) [@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@jacksonjo96163](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@marketplunger1](/creator/undefined) [@kampnersam](/creator/undefined) [@mvcinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@blubercap](/creator/undefined) [@daveyjuice](/creator/undefined) [@tintincapital](/creator/undefined) [@peterdodds15](/creator/undefined) [@investy](/creator/undefined) [@amitisinvesting](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)](/topic/$stub) [MAPS (MAPS)](/topic/$maps) [Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)](/topic/$mrvl) [WEX (WEX)](/topic/$wex) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Grab Holdings Limited Class A Ordinary Shares (GRAB)](/topic/$grab) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Dash (DASH)](/topic/$dash) [DoorDash Inc. (DASH)](/topic/doordash) [Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)](/topic/$lyv) [DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN)](/topic/$docn) [ArcelorMittal (MT)](/topic/$mt) [Parex (PRX)](/topic/$prx) [Coupang, Inc. (CPNG)](/topic/$cpng) [Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)](/topic/$cwan) [Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)](/topic/$rely) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Wise (WISE)](/topic/$wise) [Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)](/topic/$cde) [Kangaroo the Jumping Coin (ROO)](/topic/$roo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$MAPS $3 (170% upside to 8.25x EV/EBITDA TTM 11x EV/FCF TTM) not to mention their customers if at 0% margins go to 15% (280E) and the lowest-cost producers (hemp) representing 50% of the "legal" market is set to be wiped out in a year and the only quick way to pivot is to get into dispensaries and customers eyes (can't advertise on Google + $MAPS has supplier marketplace). Capital-light been growing customers / profits on slightly down revenue while competitors have been dying (Leafly) customers are struggling. 70% market-share Nasdaq-listed. Unable to effectively monetize as a marketplace" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2001377138851602764) 2025-12-17T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Catalyst MLB deal passing Taylor Swift and pricing model comp (15% headwind to growth) price cap in UK isnt as bad as feared (2-4% of rev) ad platform launching profit inflection. Consensus has $STUB at 8x [----] FCF growing 5x faster than $EVD $LYV at 17-18x. Virtually taken all the share in secondary except for captive LYV supply. Doing very well in states that forced transferability and a non affiliated study showed consumer ticket savings doubled in those states. I think DOJ is going after TicketMaster much harder than the secondary-market Remaining regulatory issue for secondary in the US" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2003666687044841608) 2025-12-24T03:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "DHERs Foodpanda plotting comeback ๐๐ you gotta check Delivery Hero out $DHER 0.4x [----] sales 19% revenue growth MRQ 7.5x [----] aEBITDA - SBC 12.2B GMV MRQ ($64B GMV in 2026) 0.13x GMV $GRAB 5.7x [----] sales 22% revenue growth MRQ 49x [----] aEBITDA - SBC $5.8B GMV MRQ ($26B GMV in 2026) 0.90x GMV Some notes I had: Grab drove 5.5% incremental EBITDA margins on GMV this year and consensus expects 7% in [----]. DHER drove 30% incremental margins on GMV this year suggesting much more room to improve monetization as 50% of their GMV is from companies where they havent focused on profitability." [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2003949278897517031) 2025-12-24T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MAPS customers - only legal regulated dispensaries - were dying. Vast majority unprofitable losing share to hemp and illicit If rescheduling happens MAPS customer's profitability 3x's+ overnight just on tax-savings before 60% of competitors (hemp) go away in November. And it's 60% that are the highest-margin fastest-growing structurally advantaged most abundant (no fixed opex capex just sell in smoke shops / gas stations) You just don't have that kind of regulatory change + supply shock without advertising leader benefiting. It is bewildering how it's down vs $MSOS has held up very strong" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2011262812580938175) 2026-01-14T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Maybe to get a better deal or got wind the board or shareholders would reject it Shades of grey. Why wait until they have 62M of cash to make an offer sandbag EBITDA guidance. Imply $MAPS faces significant risk and needs investment flexibility even though we have no use for 63M cash. They could buyback 100% of ADV for [---] days without touching FCF - if they wanted the stock to be up it would be Its classic retrading. Use high-vote control (plus TRA poison pill) to block other bidders. Were rolling 100% but its too risky for you. Cap upside at [----] well below CEO options at $3-5 withdraw offer" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2011314462465073248) 2026-01-14T05:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Closed most of my $DOCN +125% in [--] months Love the management brand product - have no doubt they beat growth consensus this year. Extremely impressive turnaround speed but valuation getting extended with SBC still at 50% of FCF and see better opportunities like $STUB Looking at starting a new position in $DOCN $AMD just partnered with them to exclusively run their AI Developer Cloud. They only have 3-5% of revenues related to AI but thats growing at 160% yoy Earnings grown pretty consistently at 30% CAGR over past [--] years. Trading at https://t.co/0dtu4mgkvP Looking at starting a new position" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2015867027508937003) 2026-01-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC $STUB $MAPS" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2016932342208553279) 2026-01-29T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "DIRECT ISSUANCE ECONOMICS The model competes on two fronts: Against Ticketmaster: Venues price $10 below TM and capture demand flowing to StubHubdirect market share theft from TM's primary business Against Broker Arbitrage: For events with secondary premiums venues simultaneously reduce consumer prices AND dramatically increase revenue by eliminating the broker middleman LOW-DEMAND (secondary trades at/below face): Current: TM primary at $100 + $15 fees = $115 to consumer Direct Issuance: StubHub primary at $90 + $13 fees = $103 to consumer Outcome: Venue captures demand at $10 discount sells" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154560665940273) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "THE DOJ CATALYST DOJ + [--] states filed antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation/Ticketmaster in May [----]. Trial: March [----]. The market treats this as background noisewe view it as a potential inflection point. CORE ALLEGATIONS Live Nation allegedly uses control over venues and concert promotion to coerce exclusive Ticketmaster contracts. Venues choosing competitors allegedly lose LN-promoted tours. Data: NBA/NHL arenas that switched away from TM lost average of [--] LN shows/year; arenas switching TO TM gained 10+ concerts annually. Ticketmaster's secondary strategy relies on coercive" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154563769499923) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "LIVE NATION IS PREPARING FOR DEFEAT CFO Joe Berchtold told investors Dec [----] they're "preparing for the possibility of having to cede exclusive ticketing contracts with venues." CEO went from "resale is one of our biggest opportunities" to "resale is negligible LSD of our revenue" and "we benefit as pricing shifts back to primary." They raised cheap convertible debtunusual for this caliber companylikely preparing for spin-off and tort damages. Some OVG/Live Nation emails from the case: * OVG execs described their company in writing as a "pimp" and "hammer" for Live Nation * OVG signed DOJ" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154566529327510) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "GROWTH VECTORS: [----] BRIDGE Street consensus: 44% revenue growth in [----] 48% in [----]. Sounds aggressive until you decompose: MLB DIRECT ISSUANCE Teams list primary inventory directly on StubHub alongside resalefans see every available seat in single view. Key difference: SeatGeek reportedly paid $100M/year as fixed fee. StubHub's deal is tech partnership with revenue sharingvariable cost not fixed. MLB annual ticket revenue $4B 33M tickets go unsold annually. 10% penetration = $400M GMS at lower marginal CAC = 4-5% GMS growth contribution. ADDITIONAL DIRECT PARTNERSHIPS: ATG Entertainment: 16" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154568957850096) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "WHO WE'RE INVESTING ALONGSIDE The shareholder base reads like a who's who of patient high-conviction capital. Not momentum traderslong-term owners with deep expertise in exactly these dynamics. MADRONE CAPITAL (Walton Family Office) $1.2B 24% Ownership: Provided 40% ($775M) of equity check for Baker to reacquire StubHub in [----]. Make large concentrated long-term investments with history of holding through extreme volatility. StubHub is 60% of their US public equity holdings. Family member owns Denver Broncos and chairman of Walmart led e-commerce push. WESTCAP (Laurence Tosi) $535M #1" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154573361852835) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "PRICE TARGETS Base Case ($23.50 12-month): Re-rate to 10x 2026E EBITDA or call it 10x conservative [----] estimatesstill 35% discount to Live Nation. 100% upside. Bull Case ($45 18-month): Re-rate to 15x as MLB Direct Issuance proves out DOJ favorable ruling competitors deteriorate. 250% upside. Extreme Bull ($80-130 3-year): Street consensus achieved $1.5-2B net cash on $1.5-2B annual FCF. At 15x FCF = $25-35B equity value. 5-10x from here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019154575819698650 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019154575819698650" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154575819698650) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@jackson_jo96163 Ex-Swift GMS growth 25.3% T9M but agree was just trying to make sense of / bridge to the streets estimate. My model is nowhere near that optimistic" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019256091389964534) 2026-02-05T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Id be loving SH ๐ Have you ever seen the sell side be off 50% on a relatively high publicity IPO seems like itd be hard to be off this much with alternative data Already cut EBITDA 17% from IPO projections 980M FCF 2026E - 490M FCF 3.5B MC gives 7x FCF 560M net debt EOY [--] interest expense 30M vs 60M float interest income 1.69B [----] - 845M [----] 4x FCF net-cash" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019504966956658810) 2026-02-05T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "i've read it in my view hinges on random speculation based on some tiny disclosures he thinks should be more detailed. could have governance risks given founder related company lends to ticket sellers used to sell some tickets credit card ticket programs could be bad etc. then admits those items are probably not rampant talks about all in pricing as a huge threat not realizing it already happened. mentions Swift as boosting recent growth not realizing it's been a tailwind since Q2 [----]. he closed his short great technical trade but no real substance there on the financials market participants" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019536593229435110) 2026-02-05T22:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Schrdingers Trainium ๐ฆ๐ Nobody actually knows the split so it exists as 100% Alchip and 100% Marvell Collapses when you back into implied Trainium CapEx and compare it to AIChips most bullish revenue forecast (I think Marvell will capture about 70% of the revenue. Alchip seems to have won the main T3 die with thinner service margins. Marvell the higher volume inference T3 Lite and probably the connectivity layer for T3) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019613531293864305) 2026-02-06T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Your understanding and what I said arent mutually exclusive. I think its implicit that all-in pricing change contributed at least in part to decision to lower take-rates in [----] to help improve growth given the hit to revenue. Others are struggling at 22.1% Vivid 24% TicketMaster 32% SeatGeek and price-comparing is now much easier. Voluntarily subsidizing to take market share" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020238874270748780) 2026-02-07T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JindaCanInvest https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020246378711265683) 2026-02-07T21:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks Ill check it out. Agree $SEAT is dead. Theyre hitting 6x net debt to ebitda on -30% volume despite a LfL (adj. for take take) 12.5x ROAS vs StubHub expanding margins at 9.5x. Direct traffic & app advantage for SH is immense and scale is insurmountable imo. Vivid relied on drip pricing much more and also hurt SH brand as they were forced to drip price to stay competive on new user CAC I see Seatgeek resale as structurally challenged too and believe TM resale will not grow from here Yeah agree thesis is overcomplicated wanted to address misunderstandings in the durability of resale. Many" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020272913858064580) 2026-02-07T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@taobanker $STUB ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020399251671625806) 2026-02-08T07:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "๐ค send volume retention charts are beautiful. The return on CAC is an absolute money printer assuming retention curves donmt rapidly degrade I dont think market is concerned with $WISE specifically. The broader fear is that as neobanks and wallets take share digital remittance becomes a commoditized loss-leader / break-even for retention. If cash payout network and regulatory moat eventually fade as local banks modernize it becomes no different than $WU with durability driven by brand / convenience. If you cant put a terminal multiple on pure transfer they must successfully invest to emerge" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020733964311236765) 2026-02-09T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JindaCanInvest Francis trying to buy it out again cant have his CFO incentivized to leave (with the accellerated comp) in middle of a complex levered buyout. Not related to self dealing" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020742903279018407) 2026-02-09T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TeleHInvesting No youre clear ๐ read it as monthly of course theyre not doing that many Google searches for lifemd back at ATH" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021283992171856123) 2026-02-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Top Pick for [----] ๐งต StubHub $STUB: The Broken IPO of a Global Duopoly StubHub is a global duopoly asset trading at a distressed multiple because of accounting noise a temporary growth lull and post-IPO chaos. The market is pricing it in-line with declining Vivid Seats when it is actually consolidating its competitors out of existence and stands as the sole player with the potential to create a unified dominant global live-events platform. The setup: Eric Baker founded StubHub in [----] was ousted started Viagogo and in February [----] was able purchase StubHub from eBayreuniting with his" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154544815669276) 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TeleHInvesting Are these LFMD #s" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021276393053503983) 2026-02-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$STUB: Dominant capital-light marketplace priced like dying Vivid $SEAT Catalysts: World Cup DOJ vs $LYV primary market entry continued market share gains driven by scale unit-economic dominance relative to peers. Full draft memo below ๐ Interested in feedback and counter-arguments especially from those familiar with $LYV $SEAT $EVD https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019607206233031081) 2026-02-06T03:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anyone watching $MAPS - Management Buyout Imminent Round II CFO (Susan Echard) just moved to a full-time role. Performance grants vest automatically upon a change in control unless the acquiring entity is 15% owned by the current CEO. Two new independent directors were appointed this week. Brent Cox: Founder of Subtext/Inception financier specializing in cannabis. Spent [--] years at Yucaipa (Ron Burkles firm) complex leveraged buyouts of distressed retail. Famously sued the MedMen founders for self-dealing. Leveraged Finance background Harry DeMott: Partner / Co-Founder at Raptor Ventures (Jim" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019830847940214951) 2026-02-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$STUB is trading at 7x EV/2026 EBITDA on the lowest sell-side estimate and 3x [----] consensus. Estimated 30%+ growth 40% incremental margins and 120% EBITDA/FCF conversion through [----]. We only need them to hit half of sell-side Down 56% from a 20x oversubscribed IPO five months ago. Investors panicked over withheld Q4 guidance and temporary headwinds: [----] FCF hit by vendor payment timing 8-10% revenue hit from all-in pricing regulations in Q3 and lapping Taylor Swift (where StubHub sold 60% of resale volume). The market thinks ramping of investment is irrational given no apparent" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021670079604113701) 2026-02-11T19:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TroyJFar $LFMD another potential candidate Very curious what scale Ro is at. Very few scaled players who can market nationwide best cash pay rates + dr availability / oversight + insurance" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021713936068829563) 2026-02-11T22:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yep. KDDI looks good with earnings around 1150B but its pretty leveraged with 1.08T MC & 5.4T EV (according to WSJ) - at 1.9x book Id be selling all day and buying-back shares especially if they believe in their medium-term targets. Right now its like buying KDDI with an option on Kyocera" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1864892996958789691) 2024-12-06T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Looking to size up some new positions after selling $LFMD $CDE $BCBN $TTEC. Now overly concentrated in $IREN $GLASF $MT. Best ideas below % is modeled median IRR over 3/5 years $BOL.PA: 37.5% - stable family ran great capital allocation cheap due to cross share holding complexity. BMO sees 420% upside for Bollor. David Rosen sees 200-600% upside for $VIV.PA which Im not as familiar with and will check out $VTY.L: 33.75% - lots of upside with limited downside. partnership building model historically earned 40% ROCE. Government policy switching from headwind to tailwind $TEVA: 19.5% - Drucks" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1927152801806688395) 2025-05-27T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "These businesses when dominant and have a good service are very hard to disrupt. $DHER stayed growing 20%+ in Saudi and is back to strong growth in HK despite all-out subsidy war from Meituan. Ive looked at Grab but $DHER is just way too cheap compared to them dominant growing. Like DASH in US took on Uber I think a vertical focus may be smart" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1950918799248515426) 2025-07-31T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry this is really long difficult to do an elevator pitch on it: Delivery Hero is a collection of dominant food delivery businesses trading at 9.2B EV with expected 1B EBITDA this year roughly 200M-300M FCF 600M FCF in [----] 950M in [----] on consensus estimates. Their profitable segments do much higher but some of their markets are much earlier in their growth stage and require a lot of investment. They are growing GMV 9% 22% outside Korea and 29% outside of Asia. Weighted by GMV they are #1 in 90% of their markets. Greg Alexander (Buffett's "favorite" investor) Sachem Head (greatest activist" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1953275918161482102) 2025-08-07T02:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "That chart of the top players was a little misleading as Prosus included their DHER Meituan stakes here is an accurate version: [----] GMV (ex-China) $DASH 100B $UBER 84B $DHER 53B $PRX Owned 35B $GRAB 13B Rest 25B Of the rest 1.7B is $MPNGY 8B is $CPNG. Prosus includes 17B iFood 18B $TKWY. Dash will add 8B from $ROO acquisition and their Wolt business will do 5.5-6B. $DASH has 22% (22B) of GMV outside of North America and $UBER 40% (34B). Top three control 86% of the market - this is key to the thesis. The market has consolidated the large threats are focused on profitability. You can't take" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1953613581729034326) 2025-08-08T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@marketplunger1 $DHER Doordash of Asia (ex-China) Latin America (ex-Brazil) Middle East Eastern / Southern / Northern Europe. Does more revenue yet $DASH is 16x the market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1955089633085129054) 2025-08-12T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes DD much bigger 23.1B GOV run-rate in Q1 vs DHER 13.1B and growing GOV faster but DHER growing much faster outside of Asia. DASH definitely deserves higher multiple could even argue its not super expensive when they get SBC under control more so that Delivery Hero is undervalued. I saw your post on Wolt and I agree but by that logic DHER can get to a trillion in GMV. In the US people use food delivery 3x a month in DHERs top [--] markets this averages 1.3x and in their tail markets it averages 0.1x - if it reaches only 0.5x thats 150B in incremental GMV just from the tail markets. They also" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1956483673978814941) 2025-08-15T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LFMD monthly download rate vs revenue growth Does anyone have experience using downloads in their models The way this looks is that weve yet to even see the recent accelleration or the lag has increased (due to insurance rebates GLP refunds free trials low-priced monthly plan that only pays on visits low-conversion awareness/download campaigns etc.) - would love to hear any thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1963027925885764043) 2025-09-02T23:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LFMD On reconciling app-download inflection vs rev growth - likely shifted campaigns to drive app downloads over web traffic. Makes the story more difficult to figure out" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1967672946627055775) 2025-09-15T19:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@KampnerSam $CRMD" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1969283062966940128) 2025-09-20T06:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mvcinvesting $DHER $SWON $CWAN" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971338112585564404) 2025-09-25T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is interesting from investor day slide. Crazy theory - but what if $LFCR is filing to issue shares & sell warrants to partner with a big company to expand further. Companies can avoid tariffs if they build here not sure if partnering with Lifecore will allow them to avoid tariffs in the meantime on that capacity though I'd assume it would. If it wouldn't they could JV and exercise option on this site and 100M capacity filler" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971743539336736790) 2025-09-27T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So [----] could be closer to 200M 120M debt 260M MC - dont like filing to be able to sell up to 150M of equity Precedent acquisitions 6x+ sales implies 1.2B EV - 120M debt - 100M issuance = 980M = $26/shr Cant see them issuing a ton of equity at current valuations (esp with the way mgmt is incentivized) unless it was strategic. Have an option on commerce real estate and a very large filler maybe a partnership incoming" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1972016402014843027) 2025-09-27T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@blubercap @davey_juice Organic growth mentioned in every call. $CWAN is by far more AI-native like than their competitors" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1973613020539457712) 2025-10-02T04:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Tintincapital @PeterDodds15 @Investy_ Seems like total TRA liability over time could be 777M" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1975014988453666912) 2025-10-06T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@amitisinvesting Look at $DHER" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1975645987197550860) 2025-10-07T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SixSigmaCapital $DHER" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1976339179043946966) 2025-10-09T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Anyone know of where to find good research on $HUT sites quality / location / energy cost / time to power I mistakenly passed on $HUT a couple months ago due to how much $ABTC exposure it has (ABTC has 5.4B market cap on 24EH 270M BTC) But if you could hedge out the ABTC exposure you could create a stub with an extremely low implied enterprise value (5.3B market cap - 3.5B ABTC - 1.3B BTC + 150M debt) as to where your $/watt very cheap as seen in the graph below HUT - ABTC stub = 1.75B adjusted market cap (1.95B EV) for 1.3B in bitcoin plus HUTs operating business. Adjusting EV for bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1978180339693674860) 2025-10-14T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Sammy_the_Nose $RELY" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1978852805357035721) 2025-10-16T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Jukanlosreve I wonder what portion of the 15B is Microsoft this could be very positive for $MRVL and the $TSM CoWos allocation may not be as representative anymore" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1979271241891807414) 2025-10-17T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TedHZhang Pretty sure its the episode on Norges Bank podcast In Good Company. Great listen" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1980350003957874870) 2025-10-20T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Wyatts_Torch @Agrippa_Inv @OakenshieldVGX Good find Perfectly represents the cost. if $IREN decides to move next to Dallas demands exclusively nuclear power and needs a 20-year price guarantee + 20-year extension option. Otherwise maybe not the most relevant data point" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1981506604332961937) 2025-10-23T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The $IREN $MSFT Deal is Value-Accretive This is the ONLY multi-billion dollar per year IaaS deal done by a fully vertically integrated company outside of $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT. Owned operated and developed in-house It may not look much better than the average colo lease but when you account for the significant prepayment potential use of $MSFT's credit to secure low-cost financing and strategic implications its among the best: $9.7M Revenue/MW/yr $8.245M EBITDA/MW/yr (@ 85% margin) After subtracting the 20% prepayment ($1.94B) = $6.305M EBITDA/MW/yr $3.86B $DELL contract remaining after" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1985601374520836228) 2025-11-04T06:53Z [----] followers, 107.2K engagements "They said LTV/CAC is stable suggests around 6x+ still and 12-month gross profit payabck period. When I backed into the numbers I think it was 93% net revenue retention estimate but ranged a lot by year. Remitly spent 24% S&M in [----] to grow revenue 28% in [----] will spend roughly 21% in [----] to grow 18% (high teens guidance but they always beat) in [----] Assuming flat 10% revenue churn: 24% spend [--] = 38% new revenue - 1.58x 21% spend [--] = 28% new revenue - 1.33x To replace churn implies 7.5% S&M on [----] guidance. They probably assume there was a pull-forward of some demand and outsized avg" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1986532561494081635) 2025-11-06T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@zephyr_z9 $AMZN may be heading back to $MRVL Wouldnt be the first time a Taiwanese chipmaker claimed to win next-gen Tranium and lost it" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1990874425206489409) 2025-11-18T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Google is developing TPU v7 and working on TPU v8 inference-focused TPUs independent of Broadcom using MediaTek for the IO modules and back-end production logistics. Probably also a trial run for developing a training-focused version without Broadcom. Everyone wants to own more of the stack over time (Trainium Maia MTAI) and AVGO is notoriously protective over IP / margins (60-70% GM) / process If you dont think GOOG is close to capable of leaving Broadcom then yeah. If they might is the incremental demand going to outweigh GOOG over time trying to capture 25-35% savings using cheaper" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1993937096529100895) 2025-11-27T06:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Thank you one of my largest positions Would be amazing to see them sell certain assets and buyback Prosus stake but being in the weeds on their markets I view management as very competent just some incredibly bad luck so a little concerning if they get pressured into selling from a position of weakness but I doubt theyd fire-sale anything Baedal Minjok should be worth 15x aEBITDA or 6.3B was cash flowing 400M/yr and held profitability in local currency flat amidst a crazy multi-year voucher-war from Coupang and market-share has been volatile but flat over [--] [--] [--] years. FX Vietnam exit were the" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1994227525275336954) 2025-11-28T02:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ReturnsJourney $MT beast ๐ช" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1845945735050559962) 2024-10-14T21:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@FrameworkWisely $DOCN $WEX" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1940230492324028811) 2025-07-02T02:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great results from $WEX - figured I'd tweet about it as nobody here talks about them GAAP EPS up 8.2% YoY in a tough environment for their largest business and a model change for their largest customer $BKNG in corporate payments Fleet (44% of EPS) revenue down 3.7% YoY (impressive with gas down 16%) but up 3.8% from last quarter. GAAP operating income for this segment down 15% YoY while gallons processed is roughly flat The crown-jewel HSA business (35% of EPS) had adjusted net income up 19.5% YoY in-line with $HQY which trades at a ridiculous multiple compared to $WEX. HSA assets up 11% YoY" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1948147489992843411) 2025-07-23T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Took a position in $DHER on the spike-down when $PROSY announced divestiture. Working on a full writeup soon but you can see my rough notes here and in the tweet above it. I plan to add if they sell on the open-market or if $DHER buys back shares from Prosus and the market under-reacts. Not financial advice @siyul That chart of the top players was a little misleading as Prosus included their DHER Meituan stakes here is an accurate version: [----] GMV (ex-China) $DASH 100B $UBER 84B $DHER 53B $PRX Owned 35B $GRAB 13B Rest 25B Of the rest 1.7B is $MPNGY 8B is $CPNG. Prosus includes 17B" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1953614753290387667) 2025-08-08T00:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This has been well-known so dumb the market still reacts to this stuff. AIChip clearly doing the lower margin compute die and MRVL probably doing part or all of the serdes I/O and XPU attach / T3 Lite at much higher-margin and similar revenue. Pretty clear from guidance and consensus estimates. Dont forget AIChip was going around claiming they won T2 too" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1998078001259352529) 2025-12-08T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I just mean in modeling it you need to have the rent per GPU hour come down over time. On the 1.5B in Canada Id assume most of it will be on 2-4 year leases just to ensure they can leverage it so much of the typical rent price decreases are baked in there. A mix shift towards more on-demand (huge premium) could offset some of that over time" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1998146839606882389) 2025-12-08T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MAPS: Update (assuming S3) Most money flocks to $MSOS as a trading vehicle (I prefer $GLASF) but when capital looks for a US company to play rescheduling and cares about vol duration and valuation $MAPS is probably the best (and only non-OTC) game in town Sector Level Margins: Expand 2-10x overnight across the sector ($5B/yr savings as tax shifts from gross profit to earnings) Banking: No more "loophole" banks POS or armored trucks burning 5% of revenue. Uplisting decreases cost of capital. $1B/yr savings Tax Assets: 280E going away means companies can unlock billions in past losses Supply" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2000012554072985859) 2025-12-14T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLAPurchaser Whos taking market share from them" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2002042940399444176) 2025-12-19T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TheLAPurchaser @goblincharts $LFMD ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2002077279250432274) 2025-12-19T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@StockChaser_ ๐ค" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2002593794315932152) 2025-12-21T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Id also be worried as $NBIS given the cost-structure they have with R&D ventures huge team. Lots of potential but by my estimate NBIS needs 3x the rev of $IREN for similar normalized FCF. If the market stays constrained you cant compete with the reinvestment rate that enables and they dont have to bid against hyperscalars for sites. In a constrained market you want the high-cost producer because you usually get more leverage but in this case $IREN the low-cost producer is now growing faster and valued at a lower EV/S" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2002822504600011045) 2025-12-21T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@pennycheck $MRVL" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2004641837517349153) 2025-12-26T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@itslirrato @Polymarket $MARS" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2008006480365338645) 2026-01-05T02:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$WEX Health savings & fleet mgmt. / closed loop credit card network / corporate payments. Around 8x [--] earnings (historically has been 18-30x). Smooth 12% rev growth and 13% earnings growth throughout history Growth not high single digit due to gas price exposure but should return to HSD / LDD growth very soon. After [----] gas down cycle they raised prices 37% and expanded margins Competitors Corpay and Health Equity are wall street darlings trade at 2-3x the multiple and have much worse customer reviews. Corpay charges 80% more and health equity 40% more. Typically pricing has not been so" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1928900657420886345) 2025-05-31T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rough thesis on new position $WEX a fleet mgmt corporate payments and health savings business. Took starter position this week around $131. Would love to hear some pushback or see if Im missing something 8x fwd adjusted EPS 4.75x EV/EBITDA TTM Basically WEX is down because of 1) lower gas prices and 2) the market is misperceiving them as a business without pricing power and growth viewing CPAYs higher ROIC as WEX underperforming. In reality WEX management has been focused on taking market share prioritizing customer acquisition & growth over short-term profitability. This is rational as they" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1930694363857797472) 2025-06-05T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "4.8x EV / TTM FCF despite heavy R&D and 2.52x EV / [----] EBITDA on Morgan Stanley estimate - the biggest risk Im grappling with is whether their retail media CTV long-tail of publishers etc. can offset decreasing inventory (supply-side ads) on top publishers websites outside of the walled gardens. Not too worried about the cookie issue or whether they can execute" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1952396044844580940) 2025-08-04T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$SWON risk is continued poor conversion of EBITDA to free cash and management adjustments every year of course expecting merger costs but to get to a peer multiple must show theyre on a clear path to FCF conversion in-line with peers" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1960463675862442384) 2025-08-26T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@gordocap18 @JohnHuber72 $CRTO ๐ 23% FCFY on EV leading adtech company long history of growing EBITDA massive buybacks. SBC has been bad but coming down quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1967042033538986159) 2025-09-14T01:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MRVL market worried about losing future Amazon deal missing that theyve gone from [--] deals to 18+ and if they hit [----] market share target consensus is off by 50%. greatly exceeded every target theyve had so far $CRTO 4.8x EV/FCF on losing some big deals low-growth. If it was good enough for Michael Platt at $38 its good enough for me at $22. Will buy back 15-20% of SO annually at these levels. Amazing retail media business but only 1/4th of contribution. Retargeting seen as a melting ice cube though +6% YoY in Q2 hypergrowth in social AI / self-service platform has the potential to keep it" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1969827298229584029) 2025-09-21T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Id assume these tarriffs can be avoided by using $LFCR (US CDMO / injectable drug manufacturer) - anyone know" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971719328132407488) 2025-09-26T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPAY is much more large-fleet so deserves a premium but current gap is ridiculous. $WEX growth has just been slightly less been over the long-term. Slowed recently on gas price fx trucking slowdown but is taking market share. They charge much less so have a lot of room to raise prices in fleet imo and will return to growth in a big-way as they always do. $WEX also has a great HSA biz (HSA comps trade at 3x the multiple) which is doing well and corporate payments is smaller and had a pricing change with BKNG but should return to strong growth in 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971784067700945131) 2025-09-27T03:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LFCR CEO at morgan stanley conference said Alcon is obligated to double their volume or demand in [----]. Based on filings Alcon was doing 57M for FY ending in May [----]. Consensus has 2.6% growth in [--] to 132M and 11% growth to 147M in [--]. Way off would imply massive loss in other programs the most important one being our largest commercial customer who is projected to more than double their volume or demand in [----] https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972015229845320031 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972015229845320031" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1972015229845320031) 2025-09-27T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@invest_aybar $LFCR comp" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1973930090707739056) 2025-10-03T01:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ACapitalLP $STUB looks way better" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2003617555823645059) 2025-12-24T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nishantkumar07 Biggest shareholder in $CRTO down 47% on it looks interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2008224348138860677) 2026-01-05T17:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@cupofcoffeecap @RodAlzmann They wanna buyout shareholders cheap. CEO and founder would own 37% on change in control event 62M cash on balance sheet. Withdrew [----] offer but its hard to think financing was the issue with 21M TTM FCF vs 90M new money needed" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2011293947377959044) 2026-01-14T04:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@sovereignsense This thing is going to squeeze imo. Heavily shorted for IPO lockup exp in March dont think shorts realize the nature of the top shareholders Great long term investment as well https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesdk https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesdk" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2012180606386323672) 2026-01-16T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "100% - and who has the cash flows contracted & an 18B MC & long-duration assets READY with a vertically integrated team with dev speed favorable to mega-cap hyperscalars Markups are insane right now on every step of the process. Design architecture transformers electrical engineers electrical infrastructure. Nobody else can do cloud because nobody else has the GPU buying power + the rest of it. Amazon Google Microsoft can charge whatever they want. They are earning insane returns returns that WILL be completed down so the gap is wide-open but good luck $CRWV $NBIS bidding against hyperscalars" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2012245251079999546) 2026-01-16T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Those are Clayton Act cases totally different and use market-share to predict likelihood of monopolization. TM got that HSR approval in [----] by signing a consent decree then got caught violatng it twice. Sent this to my friend the other day who's also very long $STUB you may find interesting. I have a strong view on DOJ forcing breakup or structural remedies but idk if spin-off will be value destructive * [--] state AGs / treble damages (to force a jury trial) + receipts from a decade of monitoring + violated previous two consent decrees * Rapino emailed threats to "go nuclear" on venues that" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2013344743715922073) 2026-01-19T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A guy running a ticket platform owned a ticket broker He didn't mention Fluhr the guy who screwed him out of his own idea and is a fraction of the CEO Baker is (look at the track record). That's your thesis You cite Citi's hatchet job - have you read it Citi's iROAS: 5.33x (based on GAAP incremental S&M spend of $60M includes one-off SBC vesting charge) Real iROAS: 9.6x (based on clean cash spend of $33.7M) Yeah marketing efficiency fell in half QoQ and YoY great work Citi. Q3 [----] Blended ROAS: $2.19B GMS / $221M Spend = 9.9x Q3 [----] Blended ROAS: $2.43B GMS / $254.7M Spend = 9.6x STUB" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2014122691398127791) 2026-01-21T23:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Citi's report was clearly negligent so not the best signal lol Doesn't the $6M AR and lack of a material provision for transaction losses prove that unsecured defaults are negligible The netting mechanism seems to be working. There are obvious commercial reasons not to disclose failure rates and structure (regulatory target competitor ammo seller deterrence). Regarding trust -stock is already down 50% from highs On the related party stuff: Baker's Andro was selling tickets for free but the volume wasn't huge and it wound down definitely to get clean for the IPO. Maybe they were buying" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2014175386901373411) 2026-01-22T03:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter WHO IS DESIGNING IT $MRVL" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2015827740125966770) 2026-01-26T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JM_research1 $IREN is magnitudes cheaper on [----] exit adj. EBT normalized FCF likely still cheaper on EV / EBITDA also though I havent updated my model in a month or so. Cost of capital & lease-finance costs for $CRWV create an extreme structural disadvantage relatively" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2015843415775121582) 2026-01-26T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Even if they did suffer another huge hit every year its a 12.5% earnings yield. They are trading at half the valuation of peers like Persimmons who have negative growth & lower margins than $VTY. CEO has perhaps the greatest track record in UK homebuilding. Whats more likely - big [--] involved in accounting fraud partnerships business is compromised by the difficulties related to traditional homebuilding - or that margins will revert as they wind down their legacy business and return capital without taking book losses. Is [--] years of 40% returns on capital enough to prove the partnerships model" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1897369742425444718) 2025-03-05T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Excited to have some new ideas still looking into them but seem compelling: $MAPS $DHER $LFMD $SWON $CRTO $OPRA $MAPS - 3x+ if cannabis is ever rescheduled tax savings reinvested into advertising can grow as more states become legal. cant see any value impairment given cash flows and founder buyout potential. Illiquid so plan to keep small and accumulate on dips. Own some already $DHER - app downloads trending in a very positive direction if we see the market under-react to any improvements in Korea Meituan struggles or solved Prosus overhang will keep buying. Somewhat illiquid so can be" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1960439620010758288) 2025-08-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ACapitalLP Have you heard any new rumours on $DHER asset sales" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1994172070511485172) 2025-11-27T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DHER is the perfect example. IPOd way too high got brutally sold off similar to Doordash but was a few years behind in terms of FCF inflection gets hit with crazy fines irrational competition in their biggest market. Handled it well but by that point the market had soured on reinvestment and now its a show me the FCF story. Value it even against greatly inferior peers and you cant underwrite less than a double. Its too complicated given different maturity stages between their markets and everyones lost money on it but under the surface its a very high-quality business and Sachem Head Greg" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1994221500316934328) 2025-11-28T01:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Beth_Kindig $MRVL" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2016957896676737176) 2026-01-29T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@stockspinoffss $MOB.ST vs $MEDXF ๐ค" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1809750708675371201) 2024-07-07T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ghill37g @AndroGeorge ๐๐ป let me know what you think if you look into it more Btw phrased some of thay wrong - $MAPS cant process payments so they have to do a SaaS model but they dont fall under 280E like their customers" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2001480827348111762) 2025-12-18T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes. Too late to switch unless they delay it again. Heard credible rumours that first delays were not result of $MRVL but in-house design issues. There were some rumours that $MSFT was discussing with $AVGO but absolutely everyone has to dual source and prepare for contingencies. Theres two companies in the world who can design it. $GOOG can bypass $AVGO for AiChip on next TPU only because they have the most sophisticated in-house team and Broadcom wont let go of their 70% GMs and turnkey only / control the process heavily. $MRVL will drop in and assist on parts" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2015831253170135356) 2026-01-26T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AKWilk $BOL.PA" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1928978206335381740) 2025-06-01T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@bobspaysubstack You should check out $WEX would love to hear your thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971401919454429604) 2025-09-26T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@jakeallen3 Jake AllenJake Allen posts on X about $dher, $stub, $maps, $mrvl the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 33% finance 28% cryptocurrencies 18% technology brands 12% countries 2% social networks 2% celebrities 1% musicians 1% currencies 1%
Social topic influence $dher 11%, $stub #2, $maps 8%, $mrvl 7%, ceo 6%, $lfmd 6%, $wex 6%, $iren 5%, business 4%, doj 4%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jackson_jo96163 @jindacaninvest @cupofcoffeecap @tgordon67 @telehinvesting @troyjfar @thelapurchaser @acapitallp @sfarringtonbkc @jacksonjo96163 @taobanker @marketplunger1 @kampnersam @mvcinvesting @blubercap @daveyjuice @tintincapital @peterdodds15 @investy @amitisinvesting
Top assets mentioned StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) MAPS (MAPS) Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) WEX (WEX) Iris Energy Limited (IREN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Grab Holdings Limited Class A Ordinary Shares (GRAB) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Dash (DASH) DoorDash Inc. (DASH) Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) ArcelorMittal (MT) Parex (PRX) Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Morgan Stanley (MS) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Wise (WISE) Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Kangaroo the Jumping Coin (ROO)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$MAPS $3 (170% upside to 8.25x EV/EBITDA TTM 11x EV/FCF TTM) not to mention their customers if at 0% margins go to 15% (280E) and the lowest-cost producers (hemp) representing 50% of the "legal" market is set to be wiped out in a year and the only quick way to pivot is to get into dispensaries and customers eyes (can't advertise on Google + $MAPS has supplier marketplace). Capital-light been growing customers / profits on slightly down revenue while competitors have been dying (Leafly) customers are struggling. 70% market-share Nasdaq-listed. Unable to effectively monetize as a marketplace"
X Link 2025-12-17T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Catalyst MLB deal passing Taylor Swift and pricing model comp (15% headwind to growth) price cap in UK isnt as bad as feared (2-4% of rev) ad platform launching profit inflection. Consensus has $STUB at 8x [----] FCF growing 5x faster than $EVD $LYV at 17-18x. Virtually taken all the share in secondary except for captive LYV supply. Doing very well in states that forced transferability and a non affiliated study showed consumer ticket savings doubled in those states. I think DOJ is going after TicketMaster much harder than the secondary-market Remaining regulatory issue for secondary in the US"
X Link 2025-12-24T03:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DHERs Foodpanda plotting comeback ๐๐ you gotta check Delivery Hero out $DHER 0.4x [----] sales 19% revenue growth MRQ 7.5x [----] aEBITDA - SBC 12.2B GMV MRQ ($64B GMV in 2026) 0.13x GMV $GRAB 5.7x [----] sales 22% revenue growth MRQ 49x [----] aEBITDA - SBC $5.8B GMV MRQ ($26B GMV in 2026) 0.90x GMV Some notes I had: Grab drove 5.5% incremental EBITDA margins on GMV this year and consensus expects 7% in [----]. DHER drove 30% incremental margins on GMV this year suggesting much more room to improve monetization as 50% of their GMV is from companies where they havent focused on profitability."
X Link 2025-12-24T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MAPS customers - only legal regulated dispensaries - were dying. Vast majority unprofitable losing share to hemp and illicit If rescheduling happens MAPS customer's profitability 3x's+ overnight just on tax-savings before 60% of competitors (hemp) go away in November. And it's 60% that are the highest-margin fastest-growing structurally advantaged most abundant (no fixed opex capex just sell in smoke shops / gas stations) You just don't have that kind of regulatory change + supply shock without advertising leader benefiting. It is bewildering how it's down vs $MSOS has held up very strong"
X Link 2026-01-14T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Maybe to get a better deal or got wind the board or shareholders would reject it Shades of grey. Why wait until they have 62M of cash to make an offer sandbag EBITDA guidance. Imply $MAPS faces significant risk and needs investment flexibility even though we have no use for 63M cash. They could buyback 100% of ADV for [---] days without touching FCF - if they wanted the stock to be up it would be Its classic retrading. Use high-vote control (plus TRA poison pill) to block other bidders. Were rolling 100% but its too risky for you. Cap upside at [----] well below CEO options at $3-5 withdraw offer"
X Link 2026-01-14T05:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Closed most of my $DOCN +125% in [--] months Love the management brand product - have no doubt they beat growth consensus this year. Extremely impressive turnaround speed but valuation getting extended with SBC still at 50% of FCF and see better opportunities like $STUB Looking at starting a new position in $DOCN $AMD just partnered with them to exclusively run their AI Developer Cloud. They only have 3-5% of revenues related to AI but thats growing at 160% yoy Earnings grown pretty consistently at 30% CAGR over past [--] years. Trading at https://t.co/0dtu4mgkvP Looking at starting a new position"
X Link 2026-01-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC $STUB $MAPS"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DIRECT ISSUANCE ECONOMICS The model competes on two fronts: Against Ticketmaster: Venues price $10 below TM and capture demand flowing to StubHubdirect market share theft from TM's primary business Against Broker Arbitrage: For events with secondary premiums venues simultaneously reduce consumer prices AND dramatically increase revenue by eliminating the broker middleman LOW-DEMAND (secondary trades at/below face): Current: TM primary at $100 + $15 fees = $115 to consumer Direct Issuance: StubHub primary at $90 + $13 fees = $103 to consumer Outcome: Venue captures demand at $10 discount sells"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"THE DOJ CATALYST DOJ + [--] states filed antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation/Ticketmaster in May [----]. Trial: March [----]. The market treats this as background noisewe view it as a potential inflection point. CORE ALLEGATIONS Live Nation allegedly uses control over venues and concert promotion to coerce exclusive Ticketmaster contracts. Venues choosing competitors allegedly lose LN-promoted tours. Data: NBA/NHL arenas that switched away from TM lost average of [--] LN shows/year; arenas switching TO TM gained 10+ concerts annually. Ticketmaster's secondary strategy relies on coercive"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"LIVE NATION IS PREPARING FOR DEFEAT CFO Joe Berchtold told investors Dec [----] they're "preparing for the possibility of having to cede exclusive ticketing contracts with venues." CEO went from "resale is one of our biggest opportunities" to "resale is negligible LSD of our revenue" and "we benefit as pricing shifts back to primary." They raised cheap convertible debtunusual for this caliber companylikely preparing for spin-off and tort damages. Some OVG/Live Nation emails from the case: * OVG execs described their company in writing as a "pimp" and "hammer" for Live Nation * OVG signed DOJ"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"GROWTH VECTORS: [----] BRIDGE Street consensus: 44% revenue growth in [----] 48% in [----]. Sounds aggressive until you decompose: MLB DIRECT ISSUANCE Teams list primary inventory directly on StubHub alongside resalefans see every available seat in single view. Key difference: SeatGeek reportedly paid $100M/year as fixed fee. StubHub's deal is tech partnership with revenue sharingvariable cost not fixed. MLB annual ticket revenue $4B 33M tickets go unsold annually. 10% penetration = $400M GMS at lower marginal CAC = 4-5% GMS growth contribution. ADDITIONAL DIRECT PARTNERSHIPS: ATG Entertainment: 16"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"WHO WE'RE INVESTING ALONGSIDE The shareholder base reads like a who's who of patient high-conviction capital. Not momentum traderslong-term owners with deep expertise in exactly these dynamics. MADRONE CAPITAL (Walton Family Office) $1.2B 24% Ownership: Provided 40% ($775M) of equity check for Baker to reacquire StubHub in [----]. Make large concentrated long-term investments with history of holding through extreme volatility. StubHub is 60% of their US public equity holdings. Family member owns Denver Broncos and chairman of Walmart led e-commerce push. WESTCAP (Laurence Tosi) $535M #1"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"PRICE TARGETS Base Case ($23.50 12-month): Re-rate to 10x 2026E EBITDA or call it 10x conservative [----] estimatesstill 35% discount to Live Nation. 100% upside. Bull Case ($45 18-month): Re-rate to 15x as MLB Direct Issuance proves out DOJ favorable ruling competitors deteriorate. 250% upside. Extreme Bull ($80-130 3-year): Street consensus achieved $1.5-2B net cash on $1.5-2B annual FCF. At 15x FCF = $25-35B equity value. 5-10x from here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019154575819698650 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019154575819698650"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@jackson_jo96163 Ex-Swift GMS growth 25.3% T9M but agree was just trying to make sense of / bridge to the streets estimate. My model is nowhere near that optimistic"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Id be loving SH ๐ Have you ever seen the sell side be off 50% on a relatively high publicity IPO seems like itd be hard to be off this much with alternative data Already cut EBITDA 17% from IPO projections 980M FCF 2026E - 490M FCF 3.5B MC gives 7x FCF 560M net debt EOY [--] interest expense 30M vs 60M float interest income 1.69B [----] - 845M [----] 4x FCF net-cash"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"i've read it in my view hinges on random speculation based on some tiny disclosures he thinks should be more detailed. could have governance risks given founder related company lends to ticket sellers used to sell some tickets credit card ticket programs could be bad etc. then admits those items are probably not rampant talks about all in pricing as a huge threat not realizing it already happened. mentions Swift as boosting recent growth not realizing it's been a tailwind since Q2 [----]. he closed his short great technical trade but no real substance there on the financials market participants"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Schrdingers Trainium ๐ฆ๐ Nobody actually knows the split so it exists as 100% Alchip and 100% Marvell Collapses when you back into implied Trainium CapEx and compare it to AIChips most bullish revenue forecast (I think Marvell will capture about 70% of the revenue. Alchip seems to have won the main T3 die with thinner service margins. Marvell the higher volume inference T3 Lite and probably the connectivity layer for T3) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Your understanding and what I said arent mutually exclusive. I think its implicit that all-in pricing change contributed at least in part to decision to lower take-rates in [----] to help improve growth given the hit to revenue. Others are struggling at 22.1% Vivid 24% TicketMaster 32% SeatGeek and price-comparing is now much easier. Voluntarily subsidizing to take market share"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JindaCanInvest https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Ill check it out. Agree $SEAT is dead. Theyre hitting 6x net debt to ebitda on -30% volume despite a LfL (adj. for take take) 12.5x ROAS vs StubHub expanding margins at 9.5x. Direct traffic & app advantage for SH is immense and scale is insurmountable imo. Vivid relied on drip pricing much more and also hurt SH brand as they were forced to drip price to stay competive on new user CAC I see Seatgeek resale as structurally challenged too and believe TM resale will not grow from here Yeah agree thesis is overcomplicated wanted to address misunderstandings in the durability of resale. Many"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@taobanker $STUB ๐"
X Link 2026-02-08T07:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"๐ค send volume retention charts are beautiful. The return on CAC is an absolute money printer assuming retention curves donmt rapidly degrade I dont think market is concerned with $WISE specifically. The broader fear is that as neobanks and wallets take share digital remittance becomes a commoditized loss-leader / break-even for retention. If cash payout network and regulatory moat eventually fade as local banks modernize it becomes no different than $WU with durability driven by brand / convenience. If you cant put a terminal multiple on pure transfer they must successfully invest to emerge"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JindaCanInvest Francis trying to buy it out again cant have his CFO incentivized to leave (with the accellerated comp) in middle of a complex levered buyout. Not related to self dealing"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TeleHInvesting No youre clear ๐ read it as monthly of course theyre not doing that many Google searches for lifemd back at ATH"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Top Pick for [----] ๐งต StubHub $STUB: The Broken IPO of a Global Duopoly StubHub is a global duopoly asset trading at a distressed multiple because of accounting noise a temporary growth lull and post-IPO chaos. The market is pricing it in-line with declining Vivid Seats when it is actually consolidating its competitors out of existence and stands as the sole player with the potential to create a unified dominant global live-events platform. The setup: Eric Baker founded StubHub in [----] was ousted started Viagogo and in February [----] was able purchase StubHub from eBayreuniting with his"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TeleHInvesting Are these LFMD #s"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$STUB: Dominant capital-light marketplace priced like dying Vivid $SEAT Catalysts: World Cup DOJ vs $LYV primary market entry continued market share gains driven by scale unit-economic dominance relative to peers. Full draft memo below ๐ Interested in feedback and counter-arguments especially from those familiar with $LYV $SEAT $EVD https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyone watching $MAPS - Management Buyout Imminent Round II CFO (Susan Echard) just moved to a full-time role. Performance grants vest automatically upon a change in control unless the acquiring entity is 15% owned by the current CEO. Two new independent directors were appointed this week. Brent Cox: Founder of Subtext/Inception financier specializing in cannabis. Spent [--] years at Yucaipa (Ron Burkles firm) complex leveraged buyouts of distressed retail. Famously sued the MedMen founders for self-dealing. Leveraged Finance background Harry DeMott: Partner / Co-Founder at Raptor Ventures (Jim"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$STUB is trading at 7x EV/2026 EBITDA on the lowest sell-side estimate and 3x [----] consensus. Estimated 30%+ growth 40% incremental margins and 120% EBITDA/FCF conversion through [----]. We only need them to hit half of sell-side Down 56% from a 20x oversubscribed IPO five months ago. Investors panicked over withheld Q4 guidance and temporary headwinds: [----] FCF hit by vendor payment timing 8-10% revenue hit from all-in pricing regulations in Q3 and lapping Taylor Swift (where StubHub sold 60% of resale volume). The market thinks ramping of investment is irrational given no apparent"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TroyJFar $LFMD another potential candidate Very curious what scale Ro is at. Very few scaled players who can market nationwide best cash pay rates + dr availability / oversight + insurance"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yep. KDDI looks good with earnings around 1150B but its pretty leveraged with 1.08T MC & 5.4T EV (according to WSJ) - at 1.9x book Id be selling all day and buying-back shares especially if they believe in their medium-term targets. Right now its like buying KDDI with an option on Kyocera"
X Link 2024-12-06T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Looking to size up some new positions after selling $LFMD $CDE $BCBN $TTEC. Now overly concentrated in $IREN $GLASF $MT. Best ideas below % is modeled median IRR over 3/5 years $BOL.PA: 37.5% - stable family ran great capital allocation cheap due to cross share holding complexity. BMO sees 420% upside for Bollor. David Rosen sees 200-600% upside for $VIV.PA which Im not as familiar with and will check out $VTY.L: 33.75% - lots of upside with limited downside. partnership building model historically earned 40% ROCE. Government policy switching from headwind to tailwind $TEVA: 19.5% - Drucks"
X Link 2025-05-27T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"These businesses when dominant and have a good service are very hard to disrupt. $DHER stayed growing 20%+ in Saudi and is back to strong growth in HK despite all-out subsidy war from Meituan. Ive looked at Grab but $DHER is just way too cheap compared to them dominant growing. Like DASH in US took on Uber I think a vertical focus may be smart"
X Link 2025-07-31T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry this is really long difficult to do an elevator pitch on it: Delivery Hero is a collection of dominant food delivery businesses trading at 9.2B EV with expected 1B EBITDA this year roughly 200M-300M FCF 600M FCF in [----] 950M in [----] on consensus estimates. Their profitable segments do much higher but some of their markets are much earlier in their growth stage and require a lot of investment. They are growing GMV 9% 22% outside Korea and 29% outside of Asia. Weighted by GMV they are #1 in 90% of their markets. Greg Alexander (Buffett's "favorite" investor) Sachem Head (greatest activist"
X Link 2025-08-07T02:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"That chart of the top players was a little misleading as Prosus included their DHER Meituan stakes here is an accurate version: [----] GMV (ex-China) $DASH 100B $UBER 84B $DHER 53B $PRX Owned 35B $GRAB 13B Rest 25B Of the rest 1.7B is $MPNGY 8B is $CPNG. Prosus includes 17B iFood 18B $TKWY. Dash will add 8B from $ROO acquisition and their Wolt business will do 5.5-6B. $DASH has 22% (22B) of GMV outside of North America and $UBER 40% (34B). Top three control 86% of the market - this is key to the thesis. The market has consolidated the large threats are focused on profitability. You can't take"
X Link 2025-08-08T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@marketplunger1 $DHER Doordash of Asia (ex-China) Latin America (ex-Brazil) Middle East Eastern / Southern / Northern Europe. Does more revenue yet $DASH is 16x the market cap"
X Link 2025-08-12T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes DD much bigger 23.1B GOV run-rate in Q1 vs DHER 13.1B and growing GOV faster but DHER growing much faster outside of Asia. DASH definitely deserves higher multiple could even argue its not super expensive when they get SBC under control more so that Delivery Hero is undervalued. I saw your post on Wolt and I agree but by that logic DHER can get to a trillion in GMV. In the US people use food delivery 3x a month in DHERs top [--] markets this averages 1.3x and in their tail markets it averages 0.1x - if it reaches only 0.5x thats 150B in incremental GMV just from the tail markets. They also"
X Link 2025-08-15T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LFMD monthly download rate vs revenue growth Does anyone have experience using downloads in their models The way this looks is that weve yet to even see the recent accelleration or the lag has increased (due to insurance rebates GLP refunds free trials low-priced monthly plan that only pays on visits low-conversion awareness/download campaigns etc.) - would love to hear any thoughts"
X Link 2025-09-02T23:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LFMD On reconciling app-download inflection vs rev growth - likely shifted campaigns to drive app downloads over web traffic. Makes the story more difficult to figure out"
X Link 2025-09-15T19:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@KampnerSam $CRMD"
X Link 2025-09-20T06:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mvcinvesting $DHER $SWON $CWAN"
X Link 2025-09-25T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is interesting from investor day slide. Crazy theory - but what if $LFCR is filing to issue shares & sell warrants to partner with a big company to expand further. Companies can avoid tariffs if they build here not sure if partnering with Lifecore will allow them to avoid tariffs in the meantime on that capacity though I'd assume it would. If it wouldn't they could JV and exercise option on this site and 100M capacity filler"
X Link 2025-09-27T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So [----] could be closer to 200M 120M debt 260M MC - dont like filing to be able to sell up to 150M of equity Precedent acquisitions 6x+ sales implies 1.2B EV - 120M debt - 100M issuance = 980M = $26/shr Cant see them issuing a ton of equity at current valuations (esp with the way mgmt is incentivized) unless it was strategic. Have an option on commerce real estate and a very large filler maybe a partnership incoming"
X Link 2025-09-27T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@blubercap @davey_juice Organic growth mentioned in every call. $CWAN is by far more AI-native like than their competitors"
X Link 2025-10-02T04:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Tintincapital @PeterDodds15 @Investy_ Seems like total TRA liability over time could be 777M"
X Link 2025-10-06T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@amitisinvesting Look at $DHER"
X Link 2025-10-07T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SixSigmaCapital $DHER"
X Link 2025-10-09T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Anyone know of where to find good research on $HUT sites quality / location / energy cost / time to power I mistakenly passed on $HUT a couple months ago due to how much $ABTC exposure it has (ABTC has 5.4B market cap on 24EH 270M BTC) But if you could hedge out the ABTC exposure you could create a stub with an extremely low implied enterprise value (5.3B market cap - 3.5B ABTC - 1.3B BTC + 150M debt) as to where your $/watt very cheap as seen in the graph below HUT - ABTC stub = 1.75B adjusted market cap (1.95B EV) for 1.3B in bitcoin plus HUTs operating business. Adjusting EV for bitcoin"
X Link 2025-10-14T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Sammy_the_Nose $RELY"
X Link 2025-10-16T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jukanlosreve I wonder what portion of the 15B is Microsoft this could be very positive for $MRVL and the $TSM CoWos allocation may not be as representative anymore"
X Link 2025-10-17T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TedHZhang Pretty sure its the episode on Norges Bank podcast In Good Company. Great listen"
X Link 2025-10-20T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Wyatts_Torch @Agrippa_Inv @OakenshieldVGX Good find Perfectly represents the cost. if $IREN decides to move next to Dallas demands exclusively nuclear power and needs a 20-year price guarantee + 20-year extension option. Otherwise maybe not the most relevant data point"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The $IREN $MSFT Deal is Value-Accretive This is the ONLY multi-billion dollar per year IaaS deal done by a fully vertically integrated company outside of $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT. Owned operated and developed in-house It may not look much better than the average colo lease but when you account for the significant prepayment potential use of $MSFT's credit to secure low-cost financing and strategic implications its among the best: $9.7M Revenue/MW/yr $8.245M EBITDA/MW/yr (@ 85% margin) After subtracting the 20% prepayment ($1.94B) = $6.305M EBITDA/MW/yr $3.86B $DELL contract remaining after"
X Link 2025-11-04T06:53Z [----] followers, 107.2K engagements
"They said LTV/CAC is stable suggests around 6x+ still and 12-month gross profit payabck period. When I backed into the numbers I think it was 93% net revenue retention estimate but ranged a lot by year. Remitly spent 24% S&M in [----] to grow revenue 28% in [----] will spend roughly 21% in [----] to grow 18% (high teens guidance but they always beat) in [----] Assuming flat 10% revenue churn: 24% spend [--] = 38% new revenue - 1.58x 21% spend [--] = 28% new revenue - 1.33x To replace churn implies 7.5% S&M on [----] guidance. They probably assume there was a pull-forward of some demand and outsized avg"
X Link 2025-11-06T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@zephyr_z9 $AMZN may be heading back to $MRVL Wouldnt be the first time a Taiwanese chipmaker claimed to win next-gen Tranium and lost it"
X Link 2025-11-18T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Google is developing TPU v7 and working on TPU v8 inference-focused TPUs independent of Broadcom using MediaTek for the IO modules and back-end production logistics. Probably also a trial run for developing a training-focused version without Broadcom. Everyone wants to own more of the stack over time (Trainium Maia MTAI) and AVGO is notoriously protective over IP / margins (60-70% GM) / process If you dont think GOOG is close to capable of leaving Broadcom then yeah. If they might is the incremental demand going to outweigh GOOG over time trying to capture 25-35% savings using cheaper"
X Link 2025-11-27T06:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Thank you one of my largest positions Would be amazing to see them sell certain assets and buyback Prosus stake but being in the weeds on their markets I view management as very competent just some incredibly bad luck so a little concerning if they get pressured into selling from a position of weakness but I doubt theyd fire-sale anything Baedal Minjok should be worth 15x aEBITDA or 6.3B was cash flowing 400M/yr and held profitability in local currency flat amidst a crazy multi-year voucher-war from Coupang and market-share has been volatile but flat over [--] [--] [--] years. FX Vietnam exit were the"
X Link 2025-11-28T02:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ReturnsJourney $MT beast ๐ช"
X Link 2024-10-14T21:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@FrameworkWisely $DOCN $WEX"
X Link 2025-07-02T02:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great results from $WEX - figured I'd tweet about it as nobody here talks about them GAAP EPS up 8.2% YoY in a tough environment for their largest business and a model change for their largest customer $BKNG in corporate payments Fleet (44% of EPS) revenue down 3.7% YoY (impressive with gas down 16%) but up 3.8% from last quarter. GAAP operating income for this segment down 15% YoY while gallons processed is roughly flat The crown-jewel HSA business (35% of EPS) had adjusted net income up 19.5% YoY in-line with $HQY which trades at a ridiculous multiple compared to $WEX. HSA assets up 11% YoY"
X Link 2025-07-23T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Took a position in $DHER on the spike-down when $PROSY announced divestiture. Working on a full writeup soon but you can see my rough notes here and in the tweet above it. I plan to add if they sell on the open-market or if $DHER buys back shares from Prosus and the market under-reacts. Not financial advice @siyul That chart of the top players was a little misleading as Prosus included their DHER Meituan stakes here is an accurate version: [----] GMV (ex-China) $DASH 100B $UBER 84B $DHER 53B $PRX Owned 35B $GRAB 13B Rest 25B Of the rest 1.7B is $MPNGY 8B is $CPNG. Prosus includes 17B"
X Link 2025-08-08T00:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This has been well-known so dumb the market still reacts to this stuff. AIChip clearly doing the lower margin compute die and MRVL probably doing part or all of the serdes I/O and XPU attach / T3 Lite at much higher-margin and similar revenue. Pretty clear from guidance and consensus estimates. Dont forget AIChip was going around claiming they won T2 too"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I just mean in modeling it you need to have the rent per GPU hour come down over time. On the 1.5B in Canada Id assume most of it will be on 2-4 year leases just to ensure they can leverage it so much of the typical rent price decreases are baked in there. A mix shift towards more on-demand (huge premium) could offset some of that over time"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MAPS: Update (assuming S3) Most money flocks to $MSOS as a trading vehicle (I prefer $GLASF) but when capital looks for a US company to play rescheduling and cares about vol duration and valuation $MAPS is probably the best (and only non-OTC) game in town Sector Level Margins: Expand 2-10x overnight across the sector ($5B/yr savings as tax shifts from gross profit to earnings) Banking: No more "loophole" banks POS or armored trucks burning 5% of revenue. Uplisting decreases cost of capital. $1B/yr savings Tax Assets: 280E going away means companies can unlock billions in past losses Supply"
X Link 2025-12-14T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLAPurchaser Whos taking market share from them"
X Link 2025-12-19T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheLAPurchaser @goblincharts $LFMD ๐"
X Link 2025-12-19T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@StockChaser_ ๐ค"
X Link 2025-12-21T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Id also be worried as $NBIS given the cost-structure they have with R&D ventures huge team. Lots of potential but by my estimate NBIS needs 3x the rev of $IREN for similar normalized FCF. If the market stays constrained you cant compete with the reinvestment rate that enables and they dont have to bid against hyperscalars for sites. In a constrained market you want the high-cost producer because you usually get more leverage but in this case $IREN the low-cost producer is now growing faster and valued at a lower EV/S"
X Link 2025-12-21T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pennycheck $MRVL"
X Link 2025-12-26T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@itslirrato @Polymarket $MARS"
X Link 2026-01-05T02:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$WEX Health savings & fleet mgmt. / closed loop credit card network / corporate payments. Around 8x [--] earnings (historically has been 18-30x). Smooth 12% rev growth and 13% earnings growth throughout history Growth not high single digit due to gas price exposure but should return to HSD / LDD growth very soon. After [----] gas down cycle they raised prices 37% and expanded margins Competitors Corpay and Health Equity are wall street darlings trade at 2-3x the multiple and have much worse customer reviews. Corpay charges 80% more and health equity 40% more. Typically pricing has not been so"
X Link 2025-05-31T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rough thesis on new position $WEX a fleet mgmt corporate payments and health savings business. Took starter position this week around $131. Would love to hear some pushback or see if Im missing something 8x fwd adjusted EPS 4.75x EV/EBITDA TTM Basically WEX is down because of 1) lower gas prices and 2) the market is misperceiving them as a business without pricing power and growth viewing CPAYs higher ROIC as WEX underperforming. In reality WEX management has been focused on taking market share prioritizing customer acquisition & growth over short-term profitability. This is rational as they"
X Link 2025-06-05T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4.8x EV / TTM FCF despite heavy R&D and 2.52x EV / [----] EBITDA on Morgan Stanley estimate - the biggest risk Im grappling with is whether their retail media CTV long-tail of publishers etc. can offset decreasing inventory (supply-side ads) on top publishers websites outside of the walled gardens. Not too worried about the cookie issue or whether they can execute"
X Link 2025-08-04T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$SWON risk is continued poor conversion of EBITDA to free cash and management adjustments every year of course expecting merger costs but to get to a peer multiple must show theyre on a clear path to FCF conversion in-line with peers"
X Link 2025-08-26T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@gordocap18 @JohnHuber72 $CRTO ๐ 23% FCFY on EV leading adtech company long history of growing EBITDA massive buybacks. SBC has been bad but coming down quickly"
X Link 2025-09-14T01:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MRVL market worried about losing future Amazon deal missing that theyve gone from [--] deals to 18+ and if they hit [----] market share target consensus is off by 50%. greatly exceeded every target theyve had so far $CRTO 4.8x EV/FCF on losing some big deals low-growth. If it was good enough for Michael Platt at $38 its good enough for me at $22. Will buy back 15-20% of SO annually at these levels. Amazing retail media business but only 1/4th of contribution. Retargeting seen as a melting ice cube though +6% YoY in Q2 hypergrowth in social AI / self-service platform has the potential to keep it"
X Link 2025-09-21T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Id assume these tarriffs can be avoided by using $LFCR (US CDMO / injectable drug manufacturer) - anyone know"
X Link 2025-09-26T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPAY is much more large-fleet so deserves a premium but current gap is ridiculous. $WEX growth has just been slightly less been over the long-term. Slowed recently on gas price fx trucking slowdown but is taking market share. They charge much less so have a lot of room to raise prices in fleet imo and will return to growth in a big-way as they always do. $WEX also has a great HSA biz (HSA comps trade at 3x the multiple) which is doing well and corporate payments is smaller and had a pricing change with BKNG but should return to strong growth in 2026"
X Link 2025-09-27T03:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LFCR CEO at morgan stanley conference said Alcon is obligated to double their volume or demand in [----]. Based on filings Alcon was doing 57M for FY ending in May [----]. Consensus has 2.6% growth in [--] to 132M and 11% growth to 147M in [--]. Way off would imply massive loss in other programs the most important one being our largest commercial customer who is projected to more than double their volume or demand in [----] https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972015229845320031 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972015229845320031"
X Link 2025-09-27T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@invest_aybar $LFCR comp"
X Link 2025-10-03T01:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ACapitalLP $STUB looks way better"
X Link 2025-12-24T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nishantkumar07 Biggest shareholder in $CRTO down 47% on it looks interesting"
X Link 2026-01-05T17:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@cupofcoffeecap @RodAlzmann They wanna buyout shareholders cheap. CEO and founder would own 37% on change in control event 62M cash on balance sheet. Withdrew [----] offer but its hard to think financing was the issue with 21M TTM FCF vs 90M new money needed"
X Link 2026-01-14T04:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@sovereignsense This thing is going to squeeze imo. Heavily shorted for IPO lockup exp in March dont think shorts realize the nature of the top shareholders Great long term investment as well https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesdk https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesdk"
X Link 2026-01-16T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"100% - and who has the cash flows contracted & an 18B MC & long-duration assets READY with a vertically integrated team with dev speed favorable to mega-cap hyperscalars Markups are insane right now on every step of the process. Design architecture transformers electrical engineers electrical infrastructure. Nobody else can do cloud because nobody else has the GPU buying power + the rest of it. Amazon Google Microsoft can charge whatever they want. They are earning insane returns returns that WILL be completed down so the gap is wide-open but good luck $CRWV $NBIS bidding against hyperscalars"
X Link 2026-01-16T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Those are Clayton Act cases totally different and use market-share to predict likelihood of monopolization. TM got that HSR approval in [----] by signing a consent decree then got caught violatng it twice. Sent this to my friend the other day who's also very long $STUB you may find interesting. I have a strong view on DOJ forcing breakup or structural remedies but idk if spin-off will be value destructive * [--] state AGs / treble damages (to force a jury trial) + receipts from a decade of monitoring + violated previous two consent decrees * Rapino emailed threats to "go nuclear" on venues that"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A guy running a ticket platform owned a ticket broker He didn't mention Fluhr the guy who screwed him out of his own idea and is a fraction of the CEO Baker is (look at the track record). That's your thesis You cite Citi's hatchet job - have you read it Citi's iROAS: 5.33x (based on GAAP incremental S&M spend of $60M includes one-off SBC vesting charge) Real iROAS: 9.6x (based on clean cash spend of $33.7M) Yeah marketing efficiency fell in half QoQ and YoY great work Citi. Q3 [----] Blended ROAS: $2.19B GMS / $221M Spend = 9.9x Q3 [----] Blended ROAS: $2.43B GMS / $254.7M Spend = 9.6x STUB"
X Link 2026-01-21T23:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Citi's report was clearly negligent so not the best signal lol Doesn't the $6M AR and lack of a material provision for transaction losses prove that unsecured defaults are negligible The netting mechanism seems to be working. There are obvious commercial reasons not to disclose failure rates and structure (regulatory target competitor ammo seller deterrence). Regarding trust -stock is already down 50% from highs On the related party stuff: Baker's Andro was selling tickets for free but the volume wasn't huge and it wound down definitely to get clean for the IPO. Maybe they were buying"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter WHO IS DESIGNING IT $MRVL"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JM_research1 $IREN is magnitudes cheaper on [----] exit adj. EBT normalized FCF likely still cheaper on EV / EBITDA also though I havent updated my model in a month or so. Cost of capital & lease-finance costs for $CRWV create an extreme structural disadvantage relatively"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even if they did suffer another huge hit every year its a 12.5% earnings yield. They are trading at half the valuation of peers like Persimmons who have negative growth & lower margins than $VTY. CEO has perhaps the greatest track record in UK homebuilding. Whats more likely - big [--] involved in accounting fraud partnerships business is compromised by the difficulties related to traditional homebuilding - or that margins will revert as they wind down their legacy business and return capital without taking book losses. Is [--] years of 40% returns on capital enough to prove the partnerships model"
X Link 2025-03-05T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Excited to have some new ideas still looking into them but seem compelling: $MAPS $DHER $LFMD $SWON $CRTO $OPRA $MAPS - 3x+ if cannabis is ever rescheduled tax savings reinvested into advertising can grow as more states become legal. cant see any value impairment given cash flows and founder buyout potential. Illiquid so plan to keep small and accumulate on dips. Own some already $DHER - app downloads trending in a very positive direction if we see the market under-react to any improvements in Korea Meituan struggles or solved Prosus overhang will keep buying. Somewhat illiquid so can be"
X Link 2025-08-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ACapitalLP Have you heard any new rumours on $DHER asset sales"
X Link 2025-11-27T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DHER is the perfect example. IPOd way too high got brutally sold off similar to Doordash but was a few years behind in terms of FCF inflection gets hit with crazy fines irrational competition in their biggest market. Handled it well but by that point the market had soured on reinvestment and now its a show me the FCF story. Value it even against greatly inferior peers and you cant underwrite less than a double. Its too complicated given different maturity stages between their markets and everyones lost money on it but under the surface its a very high-quality business and Sachem Head Greg"
X Link 2025-11-28T01:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Beth_Kindig $MRVL"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockspinoffss $MOB.ST vs $MEDXF ๐ค"
X Link 2024-07-07T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ghill37g @AndroGeorge ๐๐ป let me know what you think if you look into it more Btw phrased some of thay wrong - $MAPS cant process payments so they have to do a SaaS model but they dont fall under 280E like their customers"
X Link 2025-12-18T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes. Too late to switch unless they delay it again. Heard credible rumours that first delays were not result of $MRVL but in-house design issues. There were some rumours that $MSFT was discussing with $AVGO but absolutely everyone has to dual source and prepare for contingencies. Theres two companies in the world who can design it. $GOOG can bypass $AVGO for AiChip on next TPU only because they have the most sophisticated in-house team and Broadcom wont let go of their 70% GMs and turnkey only / control the process heavily. $MRVL will drop in and assist on parts"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AKWilk $BOL.PA"
X Link 2025-06-01T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack You should check out $WEX would love to hear your thoughts"
X Link 2025-09-26T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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