# ![@fath0039 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::3780502354.png) @fath0039 Fathel Guweda

Fathel Guweda posts on X about libya, egypt, lebanon, iraq the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::3780502354/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::3780502354/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +33%
- [--] Month [---------] -69%
- [--] Months [-----------] +19,818%
- [--] Year [-----------] +2,948%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::3780502354/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::3780502354/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +800%
- [--] Month [---] -7.60%
- [--] Months [---] +101%
- [--] Year [---] -63%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::3780502354/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::3780502354/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.48%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.20%
- [--] Months [-----] +37%
- [--] Year [-----] +71%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::3780502354/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::3780502354/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  [finance](/list/finance)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [musicians](/list/musicians) 

**Social topic influence**
[libya](/topic/libya) #99, [egypt](/topic/egypt) #345, [lebanon](/topic/lebanon) #148, [iraq](/topic/iraq) #233, [israel](/topic/israel) #2059, [countries](/topic/countries) #1339, [algeria](/topic/algeria) #394, [tunisia](/topic/tunisia), [sudan](/topic/sudan), [iran](/topic/iran) #1739

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@viktornaumenk99](/creator/undefined) [@e99887072](/creator/undefined) [@analyticacamil1](/creator/undefined) [@matthewpetti](/creator/undefined) [@khalid390465965](/creator/undefined) [@symartycohen](/creator/undefined) [@hartoftardis](/creator/undefined) [@oliveegirl](/creator/undefined) [@adelamr92](/creator/undefined) [@01hakimo](/creator/undefined) [@romeramrem](/creator/undefined) [@labsurde](/creator/undefined) [@moonatsunrise20](/creator/undefined) [@cleopatraegp](/creator/undefined) [@shinmarginalscr](/creator/undefined) [@3lfares](/creator/undefined) [@valineaddict](/creator/undefined) [@teknokrat](/creator/undefined) [@mazmhussain](/creator/undefined) [@adham922](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Civic (CVC)](/topic/civic)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@tommymiles As long as Wagner has access to its networks in Dubai it is hard to see it go away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1694406706426466363)  2023-08-23T17:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MonicaLMarks Ben Ali was only ever able to provide basic services due to Libya. Tunisian democrats never had that major advantage. Ben Ali was for the most part an incompetent corrupt dictator who spent decades not developing the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1696956708201844874)  2023-08-30T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@moodslayer95 @merovingians The comparison is silly. All the factors that led to the Syrian civil war turning out the way it did were not present in Libya. The Libyan uprising was effectively or about to be over when the NATO campaign started"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1703414604280258962)  2023-09-17T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@matthew_petti The Saudi military was always just a glorified praetorian guard. It is not a serious fighting force. With the exception of Algeria and maybe Egypt every Arab military is a glorified praetorian guard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1704958639847387644)  2023-09-21T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@IraqBasic The Saudi military was always just a glorified praetorian guard. It is not a serious fighting force. With the exception of Algeria and maybe Egypt every Arab military is a glorified praetorian guard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1704968243495014698)  2023-09-21T21:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@LIBYANIYYA Libya does not have a princess. Our monarchy was abolished over half a century ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1705862869550551427)  2023-09-24T08:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@UpdatesRee Rob has a discord server that I am also a part of. You can join it by signing up to his patreon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1713728187501298031)  2023-10-16T01:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wakeorsleepENIT @tduncanr327 @martyrmade No Egypt is Israel's closest regional ally. Israel values its relationship with Egypt far more than with Greece or Azerbaijan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1719432359160750208)  2023-10-31T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wakeorsleepENIT @tduncanr327 @martyrmade The relationship with Azerbaijan is purely transactional. Azerbaijan has use against Iran for Israel wants to stir up ethnic tensions within Iran"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1719435476958892265)  2023-10-31T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PinstripeBungle Hafez was a very bad influence in Jordan and Lebanon. He saved the monarchy in the former and the sectarian system in the latter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1719725476728418698)  2023-11-01T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Is_Not_Brian Hemedti the guy slaughtering people in Sudan is an Israeli and Emirati partner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1721930944255300075)  2023-11-07T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For the last [--] years: all these three countries have been covered by the media and had plenty of outrage. This is just mindless contrarianism for the sake of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1723134895176794568)  2023-11-11T00:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GiorgioCafiero Is Nauru not also an official US protectorate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1723418663179448378)  2023-11-11T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RobboLaw Not ditching the Saudis after the 1960s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1724396152181661699)  2023-11-14T11:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@khalid390465965 @ViktorNaumenk99 Sudan did not even want to send its best forces so it send the RSF instead. Even after a Gulf bailout Bashir refused to send his best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1727135170032177334)  2023-11-22T01:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 The Emirati and Saudi militaries are so coup-proofed and poorly trained that they are nothing more than props. Most of Saudi's defence budget is just one big bribe to the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1727135579442155995)  2023-11-22T01:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@khalid390465965 @ViktorNaumenk99 True the al-Sabah of Kuwait got to where they are 'cause they sided with the British in the 1850s Britain helped the Bouzaids of Oman consolidate power over the interior I should have worded it differently. Most of these dynasties were consolidated or installed by the British"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1727140353952878660)  2023-11-22T01:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@khalid390465965 @ViktorNaumenk99 The British tended to favour certain tribes. The al-Sabah and al-Thanis being two examples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1727140618332451067)  2023-11-22T01:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 The head of Bahraini intelligence was a British national"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1727141696499236915)  2023-11-22T01:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dwdavison Also what he is trying to say is that 100s of millions of Arabs should stop caring about Palestinians"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728085639243919838)  2023-11-24T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@khalid390465965 @ManFromMuiz The overall road quality has improved but traffic congestion has only gotten worse. Spending [--] billion a monorail from New Cairo to the New Administrative Capital was a huge waste"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728177299529580823)  2023-11-24T22:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ManFromMuiz @khalid390465965 Sure Sisi's mismanagement has been unprecedented. The 100s of billions wasted on white elephant projects and the military's take over of the economy has driven FDI into the ground. Under Mubarak the economy was still held back by his allies similar to how it is in Morocco"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728182012500979826)  2023-11-24T22:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 @ManFromMuiz Egypt under Mubarak to me looks a lot like Morocco under King Muhammad VI. They only look good in comparison to current warlord states like Libya or dystopian police states like Sisi's Egypt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728186834109542820)  2023-11-24T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 @ManFromMuiz It is the same with Jordan and Morocco. Good ideas capable bureaucracy but the patronage networks needs feeding so reforms are only ever half-heartedly implemented"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728190079301230893)  2023-11-24T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PinstripeBungle @AliceAvizandum Just the Wikipedia page of insurgencies Libya supported is almost endless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728468077463953640)  2023-11-25T17:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@xbhaskarx @BRRubin Israel simply caved to Hamas demands that were on the table three weeks ago. Biden did nothing. It was the Qataris who mediated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1728610414559482196)  2023-11-26T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @mattlogical @asadabukhalil There still some very capable people in Algeria. Ramtane Lamamra is a brilliant diplomat for one. Algeria wouldn't need to do much to become the leading Arab country I doubt that reform would happen as long as the same old generals still run the country. They are all close to 80"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729465287236296758)  2023-11-28T11:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 Iraq was emerging as the Arab power to replace Egypt but all that ended in [----] with the Gulf War. The Iran-Iraq war also a major setback. The Iraqi Ba'ath party did offer its Syrian counter part led by Hafez Assad the assistance of the Iraqi military in retaking Jawlan in 1980"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729655049117135022)  2023-11-29T00:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 Not alone. Iraqi and Syrian unification never went anywhere due to internal political disputes. Iraq's influence mostly came from its economic and industrial capabilities. Iraq had the most potential to replace Egypt but it felt short for a variety of reasons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729658081036976607)  2023-11-29T00:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 The Syrian and Iraqi Ba'ath parties were actual political parties with different power centres in Syria before Hafez's "corrective" movement and pre-Gulf war with Iraq. It was then they became the personalist dictatorships we knew them as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729658919490863132)  2023-11-29T00:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 They were never that popular. When the Iraqi Ba'ath party was at the height of its popularity it was still far less popular than Nasser was. Though the US invasion of Iraq has led to many non-Iraqi Arabs viewing Saddam positively for some reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729660847796924872)  2023-11-29T00:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 The fall of Ibrahim al-Hamdi in Yemen was also the end of a genuine Arab socialist experiment in Yemen. After that we got Ali Abdullah Saleh who was about as Arabist as the As'sads or Sadat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729661915192762585)  2023-11-29T00:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 Algeria had its civil war. There has been zero initiative for decades now in that country. Iraq and Libya were overthrown by outsiders but the rest were self-inflicted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729662347667468488)  2023-11-29T00:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @abdallaha92 I agree. But there was hope for improvement Syria was opening after decades of isolation imposed by Hafez. Libya had sanctions lifted and the security state was loosening. There was even glimpses at points of hope of Iraq getting sanctions relife for cooperation with UNSCOM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1729666454235050315)  2023-11-29T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @UticaEric The IDF has mostly been concerned with population control for the last [--] years acting as glorified prison guards in the Westbank. Israel bought into the myth of invincibility. We saw Israeli special forces being completely out done by Qassam elite fighters in a fair fight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730042415103303916)  2023-11-30T01:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @UticaEric I remember reading about that. It seems the Israeli population is too small for it to effectively have a good conventional military and control the Palestinians as it currently does. Simply not enough troops"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730046442427817992)  2023-11-30T02:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ettingermentum Lol since when has Bennett been "right-of-centre""  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730342137680564671)  2023-11-30T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes feudal monarchies like the UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia etc that are dependent on US protection are the pinnacle of governance achieved by Muslims"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730366249123639547)  2023-11-30T23:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@TheStrawlion Good point. As for Mena: Algeria is a secular republic with stronger institutions than any feudal Arab monarchy. If Mena monarchies are innately better than their republican counterparts they would not need US protection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730368192508211473)  2023-11-30T23:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@khalid390465965 @IDoTheThinking It is pretty much only a big deal in the Arab world. Both sides of the civil war are led by a varying degree of war criminal Hemedti is worse. And with no infamous murderer like Bashir around any longer the west does nor care as much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730379082095866019)  2023-12-01T00:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NotAshif Even when discussing Arab countries; Algeria a republic is the most independent one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730571473918562644)  2023-12-01T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@tamars With the let's be honest embarrassing performance against Hamas and PIJ after one moth of fighting; how do they think they can defeat Hizbullah on its turf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730701841204175316)  2023-12-01T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @Robert4787 Sisi was labeled by Trump "his favourite dictator" Arab leaders like it when others are as contemptuous towards democracy as they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730733182616572392)  2023-12-01T23:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @yanisvaroufakis This should be enough to tell you just how in touch with reality Israel is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730891844270108939)  2023-12-02T10:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @yanisvaroufakis Yeah Sisi has real domestic opposition. The UAE is a very rich petro monarchy with weak institutions and the place is completely bugged by the US so to discourage too ambitious would-be puchists. Even the UAE is facing domestic pressure over Palestine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1730895251898827048)  2023-12-02T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke Egypt's current regional standing is certainly not what it was in the 1960s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731086071990042727)  2023-12-02T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke The war in Yemen really drained a lot of Egypt's finances. Completely unnecessary war. The economy had actually performed fairly well prior to military adventurism which usually leads to increased corruption & instability The military reforms following [----] did prove useful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731088807376601257)  2023-12-02T23:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke Many Arab countries could sideline the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They are so weak. The "rise" on the Gulf monarchies reflects worse on the rest of the Arab world than it reflects positively on the Gulf monarchies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731090199709356173)  2023-12-02T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke Nasser admitted mistake and started implementing reforms even though it should have been done years prior At least he had the humility to do that something Sisi needs. Shazly was promoted and military drills starting being much more coherent these were definitely two factors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731092256960942432)  2023-12-02T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke A British person even ran the Bahraini internal intelligence for decades. The Gulf monarchies would have dissolved and absorbed by other Arab countries if not for the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731092991186530745)  2023-12-02T23:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke If the US loses interest; they would most likely submit to the most powerful Arab country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731093605391925355)  2023-12-02T23:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke If he had lived longer; he might have made Egypt more meritocratic if he had just started making Egypt meritocratic from the get-go. Egypt losing its ideological cause with Sadat was recipe for stagnation. Sadat was infamous for his corruption in Yemen for example"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731094583004598695)  2023-12-02T23:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke The [----] I think privatisation was really poorly executed. The lack of economic competition ended up harming growth. Post-early 1990s Mubarak Egypt resembles the current Morocco. Both countries being oligopolies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731099250044354735)  2023-12-02T23:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @steve_hanke Not just Egypt but all the traditional leading Arab countries; Algeria and Iraq have fallen off. Even Libya and Sudan used to be more prominent than the GCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731103173861925274)  2023-12-03T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SonOfJenin Arabs are equally phenotypically diverse though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731105485481181327)  2023-12-03T00:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 Even a lot of Israeli tech stuff is mostly developed and funded by US-owned subsidiaries of Israeli companies in the US. A lot of older US politicians view Mena as some "uncivilised jungle" where Israel is a beacon of "civilisation""  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731255767133573239)  2023-12-03T10:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 Unfortunately for Israel the Arabs that would be effective in containing Iran don't like Israel either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731259962150604973)  2023-12-03T10:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @khalid390465965 The UAE is too committed to the Abraham Accords pulling out would harm regime legitimacy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731261907712033180)  2023-12-03T10:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MTailamun That aside: it would be a monumental waste. Libya could generate more electricity for less money by investing in solar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731430524235694135)  2023-12-03T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@M0d3stM @tamars Do these people think every country is like KSA Most Mena countries have large tourist industries geared towards westerners. The only places that don't Algeria Mauritania Libya Sudan and Yemen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1731607411624988812)  2023-12-04T09:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ettingermentum It is so funny to see people laud what was nothing more than the formalisation of already existing ties between US client states"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1732325511806808273)  2023-12-06T09:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @ettingermentum Sudan was the only one that was not a US client. Signing Sudan at least gave hope ostensibly at least that other Arab countries like Libya or Iraq might have been "getable" in the future which is laughable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1732332583474618559)  2023-12-06T09:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @ettingermentum The US fir example dedicated all its diplomacy vis a vis Libya to make a warlord like Dabaiba sign the Abraham Accords lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1732332667125772733)  2023-12-06T09:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@tamars Are these IDF soldiers or just some Ben Gvir armed settlers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1732375841588265311)  2023-12-06T12:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @buffsoldier_96 Biden seems to genuinely support Israel. He is far more emotionally invested than previous figures like Nixon and Kissinger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733343511976542517)  2023-12-09T04:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @buffsoldier_96 Those guys were hardened ww2 veterans. You can't produce those types anymore. The Israeli military is simply not set up for it. The conditions for producing those people has not been around in decades for Israel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733344906070851610)  2023-12-09T04:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @MazMHussain You also have the rank inflation peak militia stuff. After the RSF the IDF releases the most grotesque propaganda videos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733634006187483185)  2023-12-09T23:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @muhammadshehad2 They just can't not film each other commiting war crimes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733642642527854711)  2023-12-10T00:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@adpaw13 @vulpes7vulpes @asadabukhalil Lol you clearly know nothing about these countries. Otherwise you would not have conflated their general attitudes towards in some cases their already local Jewish populations with Nazi Germany. What you are doing is downplaying the atrocities of the Nazis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733645846082670933)  2023-12-10T00:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@adpaw13 @vulpes7vulpes @asadabukhalil You have to be deeply racist to believe that Iraq Tunisia Egypt Morocco treat their local Jews like the Nazis did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733646090275029357)  2023-12-10T00:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@adpaw13 @vulpes7vulpes @asadabukhalil Not true. Libya for example has offered right-to-return for decades now. Egypt offers the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733648546895688052)  2023-12-10T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@minlayla77 It is also essential to the UAE's "diversification strategy" It requires conflict in the region for it to position itself as a viable hub for money and commodity laundering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733659466896166954)  2023-12-10T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 @soland_michael The Egyptians also have accrued real experience fighting insurgents in the Sinai. Egypt also has large production facilities. They can produce a ton of missiles artillery shells and general spare parts Israel cannot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733804951699087782)  2023-12-10T11:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @JaroslavH @AnalyticaCamil1 @soland_michael I sorta like that about the French"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733805870893379739)  2023-12-10T11:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 @soland_michael Air power is very useful especially when your opponent don't have the air power or air defence to counter you but you still need capable infantry which the IDF straight-up don't have at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733809736439480644)  2023-12-10T11:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @JaroslavH @AnalyticaCamil1 @soland_michael The French are also very loose with technology transfers which the Americans are not. The South Koreans Swedes Italians and French tend to be quite loose with technology transfers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733810139176534093)  2023-12-10T11:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 @soland_michael Air defence is also much better today than in [----] or the 1980s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733811652942786671)  2023-12-10T11:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is just revisionism. Libya was a direct Italian Fascist colony. Algeria and Tunisia were Nazi collaborationist colonies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1733864799077892397)  2023-12-10T15:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mikesw1234 @RobboLaw Either way the IDF is simply not capable of beating Hizbullah in its current state. Israel doesn't have the munitions for it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1734185476175908934)  2023-12-11T12:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mikesw1234 @RobboLaw The focus should be on Egypt. The military is furious with Israel's threats of mass expulsion of Gazans into Sinai. Egypt will start arming Hamas heavily if Israel keeps pushing its luck vis a vis mass expulsion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1734185834776248465)  2023-12-11T12:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KarenAttiah So many people are unaware of there are 10s of millions of black Arabs in Sudan Libya Mauritania Algeria etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1734673329657684438)  2023-12-12T20:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @asadabukhalil This is especially true for the UAE. It lacks the industry agriculture institutions population military etc to be a regional player divorced from complete US support. It only has the energy resources. Saudi Arabia has the size but that's it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1735406770653147199)  2023-12-14T21:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @ReneDrew7 @prem_thakker The whole Arab monarchy/Israel axis the US has been trying to make for years. Algeria would certainly be very happy to the Abraham Accords go. They'd be happy to see Sisi go too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1735464885637599392)  2023-12-15T01:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @ReneDrew7 @prem_thakker The Gulf rulers are only popular among their own brainwashed populations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1735465166706196629)  2023-12-15T01:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 The Saudis helping install Ali Abdullah Saleh was a huge blow to Yemeni development. Whatever one thinks of Ibrahim al-Hamdi he did do some quite successful institution building before his assassination. Pro-Saudi dictators tend to kill all growth prospects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1736714456988614739)  2023-12-18T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CjvHenderson What is incredible about this graph is how hopelessly Gulf monarchy economic diversification has been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1737032662831755752)  2023-12-19T08:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @ZiadMDaoud The Gulf monarchies have spent 100s of billions on diversification initiatives wielding little result. Their oil revenues are down & they are yet to establish alternative sources of revenue not connected to fossil fuel exports. I'm surprised at how lacklustre it has been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1737043074524594185)  2023-12-19T09:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MazMHussain @GhostArikSharon That is a trend that is easily reversible. We are likely going have more capable governments in Algeria and Egypt that could reverse those developments. Iranian influence is built on very shaky foundations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1737652694725316902)  2023-12-21T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@matthew_petti Even most non-self-admitted antisemitic people in the Arab world have no qualms about interacting with non-Israeli Jewish people. That guy has a cartoonishly warped view of Arabs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1738637408814481491)  2023-12-23T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Megatron_ron Unless Algeria agrees to it; is not happening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1738658844912349303)  2023-12-23T20:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@E99887072 @ViktorNaumenk99 @nihalist___ The Israeli air force has little capacity to bomb the Nile Delta meaningfully"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1738975350342791606)  2023-12-24T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@OneArabianFaris @khalid390465965 @GlobalistLibrul There is also what the Italians did to Libya. Especially from [----] to 1934"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739076054457696537)  2023-12-25T00:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 Israel ought to accept that Hizbullah is never withdrawing back to the Litani River"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739382266273350074)  2023-12-25T20:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 They have every conceivable advantage over Hamas: this must be one of the most one-sided military contests in recent history where the much-disadvantaged side is holding its own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739386182780203076)  2023-12-25T20:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@cutanddried @AaronBastani Iran's regional design promises the same as America and Israel's: warlordism and dysfunction but just a layer of religious fundamentalism to distract you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739680036796391545)  2023-12-26T16:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MikeBlack114 If the US pulled out: Iran would still unlikely become the regional hegemon. What would happen is that all the dysfunctional US client states like Egypt Saudi Arabia etc would have to get their acts together. Most people overlook just how shaky Iranian influence is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739802520497598799)  2023-12-27T00:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@MikeBlack114 Pushing Iranian influence out of Iraq and Syria would be much more doable with capable regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739802662420230178)  2023-12-27T00:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@notelpmeTy_A @KtunaxaAmerika The leaflets told people to south where the IDF was also dropping bombs. The "humanitarian pause" did not alter Israeli strategy and Hamas is an insurgency group they don't really have the capacity to do restraint. They are fighting soldiers in an active war zone after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1739961196369924354)  2023-12-27T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @janetmwebster73 @Mesarvot_ Eli Cohen is Moroccan Eisenkot is too. I read an article a year or so ago about the late Albert Ari an Egyptian Jew and war veteran. He loved Egypt more than your average Copt and Muslim"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740146280117178674)  2023-12-27T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @janetmwebster73 @Mesarvot_ I am referring to the current foreign minister Eli Cohen who is Moroccan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740149013717069893)  2023-12-27T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @HanssenHeli @ViktorNaumenk99 @janetmwebster73 @Mesarvot_ Jews have been in Iraq since at least [---] BCE. They have been in other Arab countries for millennia as well. Jews were no more settlers than other religious or ethnic groups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740169944170647747)  2023-12-28T00:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @haaretzcom @DavidADaoud I can already imagine the outline; something like Israel should replicate [----] success to deal a definitive blow to Hamas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740541625405710738)  2023-12-29T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 @haaretzcom @DavidADaoud Not full-scale. Hizbullah has the drone and missile capabilities to destroy most of Israeli critical military infrastructure. Imagine thousands of 2000-dollar drones with enough explosives to blow up Merkavas artillery air defence batteries etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740545441660543478)  2023-12-29T01:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen It seems the IDF will be shifting forces to the north. I doubt Sinwar will be caught or killed for many years to come. Since the counter-intelligence overhaul initiated by Sinwar; Israel has been unable to hit any senior Hamas leaders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740746337812148424)  2023-12-29T14:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen A dozen governments in the region destroyed them not America. ISIS would never have emerged if the US kept its promise of sanctions relife for IAEA and UNSCOM inspections"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740746884569043349)  2023-12-29T14:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen They did not fight the army in Beirut they fought some small militia. They were of course not going to use their most powerful assets fighting in Beirut against some militia. They will use those assets against the IDF if it invades Lebanon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740759118887968799)  2023-12-29T15:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@E99887072 @ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @janetmwebster73 @Mesarvot_ Radicalisation can occur quite spontaneously. The students in Tunisia became a lot more political when they were allowed democratic freedoms after the ouster of the Destourian party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740824216549876136)  2023-12-29T19:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Dharmapurinerd @ViktorNaumenk99 @MazMHussain @novussubsole They fought and defeated elite IDF forces in direct combat. The organisation and general ability of IDF troops was far below consensus expectations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1740841606109081850)  2023-12-29T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @TurkishFacts4U All the republics are. Algeria Yemen Iraq though with religious militias. Etcetera"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741213412770656506)  2023-12-30T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ichbins8 @Alexisization People don't want to leave their well established communities. Iraqis and Libyans enjoyed higher living standards than Israelis for decades. Egypt used to have a sizeable urban middle class. The only way the communities collapse is if something like the Iraq invasion happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741269948641472960)  2023-12-31T01:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen It is a tragedy they are no longer in the Arab countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741433125614305758)  2023-12-31T12:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen The region is the way it is due to constant US intervention. Algeria Morocco Tunisia and Egypt are stable countries. The Israeli state is currently killing many more people than the Ass'ad government is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741436301126074614)  2023-12-31T12:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen I'm not denying the atrocities of the Yarmouk refugee camp. But currently more people are being killed by the IDF than by the SAA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741441149510799669)  2023-12-31T12:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen The IDF is not producing any serious headway against Hamas or any of the other groups. The IDF has a major shortage of training experience and discipline from top-to-bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741482694117048469)  2023-12-31T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 One hostage has been freed and many have died in failed raids by IDF special operations forces. Furthermore there is no holding territory as long as the IDF is incapable of entering the vast complex tunnel network"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741490274868592760)  2023-12-31T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 I'm talking about hostages freed through special operations forces raids and the one specific guy who was freed freed himself by escaping not through the help of special operations forces"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741493358936182789)  2023-12-31T16:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 Why are we not seeing any evidence The US military would immediately release footage of successful military operations so how come the IDF is not They are not refraining from posting war crimes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741493864127467860)  2023-12-31T16:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 Israel does not have any bombs in its arsenal that can collapse the reinforced 50+ metre deep tunnels. I will believe the IDF when I see an actually collapsed tunnel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741494492891357373)  2023-12-31T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 The bombs can't reach that deep they will have to plant explosives to collapse them. All this footage shows is that the IDF just dropped some bombs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741495390468202926)  2023-12-31T16:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 Some of these Hamas tunnels even have different levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741495536165806371)  2023-12-31T16:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 You are right. The Soviets British and French were also important patrons in the beginning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741515791298613585)  2023-12-31T17:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @jofclark @RealAirPower1 The SAA stopped the IDF in Beka'a in [----] in fully conventional war. The SAA decentralising decision-making to the tactical level made them sure they were more innovative. They won but took large casualties doing so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741529777507344562)  2023-12-31T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF If not for Camp David Israel would have found itself in war with Egypt Syria and a much more powerful Iraq by 1980"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741610997750677590)  2024-01-01T00:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF Israel would have eventually found itself against millions of Arab soldiers as well equipped and experienced as the IDF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741612845152768184)  2024-01-01T00:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF It is awfully convenient how so many people forget that there are 400+ million Arabs. Watching Western media you'd get the impression that only Lebanon is Arab"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741614590515921206)  2024-01-01T00:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF It is not a particularly attractive place to live at the moment. The dystopian city of Dubai is the chief attraction right now which is not a good sign"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741618733318033428)  2024-01-01T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @mosamamamama @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF The IDF was clearly overstretched in Sinai. Israel is lucky Hafez turned down mechanised brigades from Iraq if he had not Syria would have retaken al-Jawlan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741619981811392554)  2024-01-01T00:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF Most of Egypt's cultural output has ceased. A product of the police state. Libya is dysfunctional and corrupt but it is at least vibrant. Tripoli is. LNA-controlled Libya is a dystopian police state"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741622168188760136)  2024-01-01T00:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF A shame. Cairo and Alexandria used to be the region's cultural heart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741637252176859309)  2024-01-01T01:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Nafussa @ryangrim IDK. Mubarak told Netanyahu years ago that if he were to attempt to expel the Gazans to Sinai: it would be the end of the Camp David Accords and the inception of active hostilities between the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741795520769602028)  2024-01-01T12:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Iversen4Allan @JonBurgwald Der bliver altid forudtaget selvstndige undersgelser af FN. Hver undersgelse har konkluderet at tallene udgivet af Gazas sundhedministerie er laver end det reelle tal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741877918408626300)  2024-01-01T17:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen I'm going with a prediction here: I don't think the IDF will get to him. No senior figure has been captured or killed yet. The IDF won't even release official Qassam death numbers. There has been like three false announcements of his bunker being surrounded so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1741984963447165142)  2024-01-02T00:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ShibuJerusalem @matthew_petti The IDF is engaging in Genghis Khan-esque obliteration of Gaza how is that "making sure that their soldiers follow the rules of war""  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742025500053131348)  2024-01-02T03:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ShibuJerusalem @matthew_petti I have a decent understanding of international law for a casual observer. I can tell that the IDF is violating pretty much every principle. From stuff like desecrating the dead to the reckless and illegal usage of area-effect weapons in civilian areas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742032203976962145)  2024-01-02T03:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@adelamr92 @ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF It is a tough situation to fix. The budget needs an overhaul and Egypt better hope it can get some very favourable debt restructuring. At least Sisi's masthead generals don't run the ministries anymore. The national security state should have cut Sisi loose in 2016"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742147399911371068)  2024-01-02T11:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FarisTheArab @cooki3faun Israelis specifically not the Jews who live in Morocco Tunisia and the few small communities in Yemen Lebanon Iraq Egypt etc. At least that is not the sentiment I get from Libyan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742299273499156777)  2024-01-02T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @SYMarty_Cohen @DanelBenNamer @MosabHasanYOSEF Dubai only appeals to people who enjoy the most superficial sanitised stuff. I never found it appealing. For Libyans it was also a vicinity thing. People from Tripoli would go to Tunis for the nightlife people in Barqa would go to Egypt for the nightlife"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742336041959248369)  2024-01-03T00:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@american1865 @_mengde_ I said most. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies are obviously not on that list. Their militaries are exceptionally bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742479094804025359)  2024-01-03T09:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Charlie533080 Iranian influence is built on a weak foundation. If Egypt and Saudi Arabia were not so hopelessly inept they could repel Iranian influence in Iraq particularly. The majority of Iraqis are not interested in Iran ideologically nor do they feel closer to Iran than to other Arabs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742661685624656245)  2024-01-03T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 For Denmark signing onto US military endeavour is a local culture war issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742694846928687147)  2024-01-03T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ArabProgressiv1 @Nasser104262521 @Charlie533080 Abiy Ahmed is a megalomaniac. He probably wants to dominate Egypt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1742975421082149014)  2024-01-04T18:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen Whatever we might think of Hamas they are not the main force thwarting Palestinian development and sovereignty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743103785591812114)  2024-01-05T02:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Pakzadesque Alan Dershowitz har ingen baggrund i international lov. Jeg kan ikke se hvorfor Joachim B Olsen tror Alan Dershowitz nogensinde kunne vre en plidelige kilde vis a vis krigsforbrydelser i Gaza"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743305584714142049)  2024-01-05T16:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@IfaladeO @ArmandDoma To say that is akin to saying the Roman conquest led to WW2. Both are deeply stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743331520214073793)  2024-01-05T17:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@alkahinah The proposed union between Libya and Tunisia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743356477971091547)  2024-01-05T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @mo_sabet @BretDevereaux @AlexanderMcCoy4 Egyptian soldiers would collaborate with Hamas before doing the IDF's dirty work. Every Arab soldier would. Even the Emiratis if they were stationed in Gaza"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743428557693768023)  2024-01-06T00:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @mo_sabet @BretDevereaux @AlexanderMcCoy4 Hamas even cooperated with Egypt a few years ago against ISIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743428968106410348)  2024-01-06T00:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TexNolans @AnalyticaCamil1 @busoxfan @CougarSpider Lol the US sold missiles to Israel in [----] it made West Germany transfer tanks in [----] and the whole Israeli air force was US built"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743430837474074826)  2024-01-06T00:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 @the_ason @soland_michael @AstreiaTales Libya and Sudan are flooded with weapons. You can see why so many weapons could potentially be smuggled into Gaza"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743433721242665171)  2024-01-06T00:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TexNolans @AnalyticaCamil1 @VenemousTurnip Wait and see. The effects of the Iraq war took a few years to really set in effect on the regimes. There has also been massive protests in Egypt and Morocco"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743435886673764759)  2024-01-06T00:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BenH_0 There has in history been a lot more trans-Saharan interaction than interaction between ancient Greece and the northern Europeans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743457171889639724)  2024-01-06T02:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 The militia government is unlikely to last. You have the reckless spending massive deficits large budgets where any meaningful infrastructure redevelopment is completely absent and even with the massive spending the ministries lack the funding to function properly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743609845163384901)  2024-01-06T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EliClifton It is the NYPD with an air force. Utter lack of basic discipline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743616973127184446)  2024-01-06T12:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PAstynome @khalid390465965 @Danielsrotaryo1 There even was the whole myth of South African Bantus only arriving after the first European settlers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743620301462601943)  2024-01-06T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@matthew_petti People have a warped perception of the Shah's Iran it was less secular and more conservative than neighbouring Iraq in the 1970s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743714214756168002)  2024-01-06T19:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @Resist_05 Nothing in Israel's arsenal can reach reinforced 50+ metre deep tunnels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743763667236073944)  2024-01-06T22:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @SYMarty_Cohen @E99887072 @Resist_05 It is common for Mossan Shin Bet or Aman heads to meet others be it in Egypt or Jordan. Libya's "interim PM" Dabaiba met with the head of Mossad last year in Amman"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1743769707247780182)  2024-01-06T23:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The IDF has shown itself to be a shockingly under-trained inexperienced undisciplined rag tag militia with an air force. The debate of whether Arab militaries today could defeat the IDF is pretty clear. If Arabs had the same military capabilities as Israel they would wipe out the Jewish nation in the blink of an eye without giving a fuck about the opinions of the West or the East. If Arabs had the same military capabilities as Israel they would wipe out the Jewish nation in the blink of an eye without giving a fuck about the opinions of the West or the East"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744035608861856022)  2024-01-07T16:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@dwdavison The IDF are still yet to publish any large operational success. Where are the large Hamas tunnels where are the large weapons caches and so on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744064311805297105)  2024-01-07T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Israel2252 @ViktorNaumenk99 @muhammadshehad2 The IDF is still yet to publish any operational success. No large weapons caches no tunnels and so forth. Occupying Gaza is not so straightforward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744065779304116599)  2024-01-07T18:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @GregPriddy1 When you collapse tunnels with underground explosives; you can see the ground contract and there is no large surface explosion. In this video we see a large surface explosion and no contraction of the ground"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744072002166468875)  2024-01-07T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AnalyticaCamil1 I forget that Hekmatyar even still alive. Man has been terrorising Afghanistan for like almost [--] years now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744338252918644926)  2024-01-08T12:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@E99887072 @ViktorNaumenk99 @Yasser_Gaza @alaraby_ar Their investment in Sisi was done out of ideological reasons such as anti-democracy. It is why they backed Bashir so heavily in [----] Haftar during his assault on Tripoli invaded Bahrain in 2011"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744440188690956581)  2024-01-08T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@E99887072 @ViktorNaumenk99 @Yasser_Gaza @alaraby_ar Military paranoia is probably a big reason. It is the same in Algeria. Nevertheless they don't own the economy directly they just prevent anyone from investing because they are old and paranoid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744449622972481956)  2024-01-08T20:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @Yasser_Gaza @alaraby_ar In Libya it is legitimately just a bunch of gangsters who managed to use the chaos to capture the state and its resources. We are rapidly heading towards financial collapse even though we have oil wealth comparable to Kuwait or the UAE on paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744452751919034660)  2024-01-08T20:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @Yasser_Gaza @alaraby_ar Mubarak got rid of too much of the safety net too quickly. The subsidies should have vaned off over a longer period. Changing subsidies to a universal cash payment would have been a more productive way to spend that money than just getting rid of them entirely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744470722716532864)  2024-01-08T21:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@E99887072 @ViktorNaumenk99 @Yasser_Gaza @alaraby_ar I kinda have a soft spot for Arab communists they get a lot right about the regional political problems it is just that their econ sucks and they are generally too authoritarian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744471481071837190)  2024-01-08T21:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 The US is always caught up in culture war stuff so it might not even happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744477349762973929)  2024-01-08T21:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @AnalyticaCamil1 It is why the Saudis bribe everyone in the region. Literally any degree of inter-Arab ideological movement is a threat to their dynasty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744480154116583913)  2024-01-08T22:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @adham922 @mmsabry The IDF is still only operating in Khan Younis and Gaza City but if they move south to Rafah; could they start moving them towards the fence It would put Egyptian soldiers in a dilemma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744865013544681841)  2024-01-09T23:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @adham922 @mmsabry We must not forget how drunk on power and impunity the military people and the religious fanatics are in Israel. Undisciplined IDF thugs might just start shooting Gazans at the border"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744867359834169726)  2024-01-09T23:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @adham922 @mmsabry The absolutism found in the Gulf monarchies is not really present within larger and institutionally stronger countries like Egypt or Algeria for there are competing power centres"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744873186863296679)  2024-01-10T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @adham922 @mmsabry Algeria's most influential president Houari Boumediene made his career as the head of the DRS before he took power in a coup in [----] and became secretary of the Revolutionary Council and later president in 1976"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744918885646684290)  2024-01-10T03:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @adham922 @mmsabry They do the same with Libya even though it on paper resembles the Gulf states a lot more. I can't get over how the Biden administration thought it was remotely possible that Dabaiba could sign Libya onto the Abraham Accords"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744919493648822499)  2024-01-10T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpiritOfEnnui @History__Speaks The idea that a developed country has been around for five centuries is laughable. Modern "first-world" prosperity is only something that really emerged in the last century. Nevertheless if you want to talk about development in Mena; just look up Muhamad Ali's Egypt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1744931747576336712)  2024-01-10T03:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen Their partnership is out of convenience. Hamas don't have much affinity for Iran it is because they don't have an alternative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745089418854072649)  2024-01-10T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FarisTheArab Morocco was also meant to be a part of it. Tensions between King Hassan II and Boumediene stopped it. The Destourian forced Bourguiba to also drop. Leaving only Libya. Dictatorships simply can't get along with each other"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745116941289689574)  2024-01-10T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FarisTheArab The failed federal union between Egypt Libya and Sudan was the most frustrating. It would have been by far the region's largest country and the most resource-rich"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745128202333290604)  2024-01-10T16:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Seamus_Malek South Africa would likely take the case if won to the UN Security Council for enforcement which will likely be vetoed by the US. It then could take it to the UN General Assembly but that won't result in maybe no more than Israeli expulsion from the General Assembly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745205036592841037)  2024-01-10T22:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen Israel along with the US and UK were the three countries that backed the apartheid regime until its very end. Also lest we forget what Mandela Tutu and Dugard thought about Israeli apartheid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745215157343551782)  2024-01-10T22:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen The likes of Cuba Libya Algeria China India Indonesia Nigeria and dozens of other countries had no relations with Apartheid South Africa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745215849512718502)  2024-01-10T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen Diplomatic relations exist b/tw South Africa post-1994 and Israel but that doesn't mean that prominent anti-apartheid figures didn't label Israel an apartheid state. World-leading international criminal law scholar John Dugard has called Israeli apartheid worse than S-African"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745216843525033986)  2024-01-10T22:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen Spain France Italy Greece Denmark Iceland Sweden Ireland Portugal Poland Finland Norway etc broke off relations with Apartheid South Africa. Israel kept relations till the very moment the Apartheid regime collapsed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745218232007512091)  2024-01-10T22:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SYMarty_Cohen @Seamus_Malek The case is extremely comprehensive. Written and tomorrow argued by first-rate international law lawyers. The man leading the case John Dugard is considered a foremost expert on Apartheid in South Africa and Israel/Palestine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745218900684402908)  2024-01-10T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lefttwick He also spent like a week trying to borderline justify the murder of refaat alareer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745254786511831197)  2024-01-11T01:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry You mean the IDF or Hamas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745527224252469396)  2024-01-11T19:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry Israel has no precedence of avoiding civilian casualties. We that during Operation Cast Led and Operation Protective Edgde"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745529076620657037)  2024-01-11T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry They are drunk on their own myths. Even Israelis I know at least in part believe these myths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745531443424473288)  2024-01-11T19:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry Israel probably thinks it can push around Egypt like it bombs a wartorn weak Syria. Their hubris is going to produce a generation that is as (if not more) anti-Israel as the one that emerged following the Nakba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745532021617590333)  2024-01-11T19:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry People I know in Algeria and Morocco feel the same. We will see the rubble effect of this sentiment expressed when the next Arab Spring arrives. With diminishing funds: the Gulf states won't be able to bribe the whole region to back down as they did following 2011"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745535106154951131)  2024-01-11T19:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry I think the outcomes in Algeria and Morocco will have widespread effect on Egypt and the rest of the Arab world. It is where there is most prospect for change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745540763503525923)  2024-01-11T20:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry The guy is only still in power because there is no opposition. He'd be overthrown in an instance if this was the Arab Cold War"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745543383869706410)  2024-01-11T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry The Egyptian military did manage to oust the intelligence. Chengriha runs Algeria now. It is a bunch of old men who wants to relive the glory days of Boumediene"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745544282386149465)  2024-01-11T20:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry The Ben Ali security state was never fully ousted due to instability in Libya. The new elected government could not afford to get rid of them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745544467568869827)  2024-01-11T20:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry TV in Algeria is also constantly making fun of MBS/MBZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745544755566510541)  2024-01-11T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry It was a typo. I meant to write Algeria. The military in Algeria has ousted the intelligence. It was honestly for the better. Bouteflika was taking Algeria down a bad path"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745545335047418308)  2024-01-11T20:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry People love the idea of Nasser. The guy was too charismatic. It makes people forget he largely failed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745545665730523210)  2024-01-11T20:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry As I understand the man running Algeria behind the scenes is the army chief Chengriha he is a more experienced powerful version of Sisi. Chengriha has a track record of being a competent general. The Algerian intelligence apparatus under Bouteflika has been subdued for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745550226285342846)  2024-01-11T20:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry The people running Algeria now just want to try to reassert themselves. Much of the Bouteflika regime towards the last few years was being influenced by local business elites. Similar to late Mubarak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fath0039/status/1745550528480751911)  2024-01-11T20:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ViktorNaumenk99 @E99887072 @adham922 @mmsabry Egypt was instrumental in Algeria's Arabisation. Algeria was left without much local identity after centuries of French rule. It was under Boumediene Algeria underwent Arabisation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745551559616802900)  2024-01-11T21:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

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