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# ![@evrgn11112231 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::236139371.png) @evrgn11112231 Evergreen

Evergreen posts on X about asml, $asml, $bmel, $tdg the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::236139371/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +868%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +1,154%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::236139371/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XX +275%
- X Months XXX +2,255%

### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::236139371/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXX +1.30%
- X Months XXXXX +170%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::236139371/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXXX% [finance](/list/finance)  XXXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXX%

**Social topic influence**
[asml](/topic/asml) #64, [$asml](/topic/$asml) #35, [$bmel](/topic/$bmel) #7, [$tdg](/topic/$tdg) #5, [$ge](/topic/$ge) #48, [$mco](/topic/$mco) #10, [money](/topic/money) 2.7%, [china](/topic/china) 2.7%, [open ai](/topic/open-ai) 1.8%, [over the](/topic/over-the) XXX%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@ramcocapital](/creator/undefined) [@tbu12345678](/creator/undefined) [@riddle245](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@cmo040958](/creator/undefined) [@notoriousb1ggs](/creator/undefined) [@hissklarman](/creator/undefined) [@dantarktis](/creator/undefined) [@pitandhummus](/creator/undefined) [@dynamicmoats](/creator/undefined) [@learningleard](/creator/undefined) [@alphaexponent](/creator/undefined) [@revcap](/creator/undefined) [@latestgecapital](/creator/undefined) [@ernestwongbwm](/creator/undefined) [@gordocap18](/creator/undefined) [@bubblebeta](/creator/undefined) [@hvntting](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [General Electric Company (GE)](/topic/$ge) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Verox (VRX)](/topic/$vrx) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::236139371/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@taobanker They dont grow volume and arent particularly cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1977080385260732667) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-11T18:34Z 6377 followers, 1252 engagements


"While we're at it $TDG now trades at a XX turn discount to $GE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979716039924666602) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T01:07Z 6378 followers, 2108 engagements


"Idk man hard to know when I still encounter so much compute constraint. We havent even seen models running on N3 silicon yet and we know there is still so much runway from memory additions. I just think people are likely over anchoring to model improvements without accounting for inevitable and sustained improvements on hardware side"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979918617077837875) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T14:32Z 6378 followers, XXX engagements


"@JerryCap $MCO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978832955263881688) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-16T14:38Z 6375 followers, 1441 engagements


"@regissweeney_jr I've long been uncomfortable with the level of historical pricing they've taken and the go forward pricing needed to underwrite to make the math interesting. I'm stale though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979770232651882697) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T04:43Z 6375 followers, XXX engagements


"Just so Im tracking - is OpenAI / Sora going to destroy $META still in this future state of the world And if AI gets cheaper (but not better) does that mean $META will dial back capex and be fine Or are we still in the AI is a bubble and this spending is fake and unsustainable but $META and large cap tech is still going to be disintermediated by OpenAI and they will spend the money anyway even though they shouldnt which will be good for ai semis but bad for my bear view on AI semis regime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979932002691264581) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T15:25Z 6375 followers, XXX engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL @DynamicMoats @PythiaR @ErnestWongBWM Are you buying $TDG or $VRX $MCO or $UNH These seem obvious in hindsight but ex-ante it's extremely difficult to determine and that's where the alpha is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1923019386706636871) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-05-15T14:15Z 6371 followers, XXX engagements


"More 2x shot triggers: - Any mention by mgmt of having capacity ready to ramp production to XX EUV units pa for a potential AI megacycle - Any suggestion that Mistral OpenAI - Joint press-release with OpenAI for anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978206666580500775) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-14T21:09Z 6371 followers, 3554 engagements


"@taobanker Or you could just buy actual bonds Or something like $TDG with better cash div yield + perpetual high growth + higher quality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978992694761271718) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-17T01:13Z 6371 followers, XXX engagements


"@rev_cap Crazy bullish on AI and memory (and associated mega capacity build out required) but not a SINGLE mention of semicap. We are still very early. @TBU12345678 @lokoyacap @PythiaR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979607723810631936) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T17:57Z 6372 followers, 3874 engagements


"At least it's no longer at a discount to $SAF.f"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979633778651013136) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T19:40Z 6372 followers, 2955 engagements


"@qcapital2020 Did you know they are about to blow all of their gross profit over the next few years on semicap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979770842319102043) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T04:45Z 6371 followers, 2342 engagements


"Like when have we ever said software isnt getting more capable so therefore demand for compute cant grow Never happened companies just invented new applications which drove growth and more efficient silicon was always in demand (esp if the software wasnt getting better better silicon could at least drive improvement)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979921247472336997) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T14:43Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@DAntarktis @PythiaR interesting i heard about lasertec's issues on an expert call like X years ago but haven't been following it closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1951303485627998471) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-08-01T15:26Z 6368 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk And yes EUV is far harder than immersion as well. Which is why Nikon has immersion and hasnt even tried to compete in EUV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979333122224460072) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-17T23:46Z 6367 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk lol oh nooo dont block me. You asked for education I deliver. FT accurately reporting on an immersion r&d tool =/ being close to competitive production ready"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979334790685036905) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-17T23:52Z 6367 followers, XXX engagements


"@lokoyacap @rev_cap @TBU12345678 @PythiaR Why wouldn't you spend ever available dollar of FCF on capex if you truly believed we are on the precipice of a once in a lifetime memory supercycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979614267449196878) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T18:23Z 6366 followers, 1823 engagements


"@s_nav123 @RAMCOCAPITAL tbh i wouldn't hate $ASML investing in Anduril and giving Palmer Luckey a board seat lol (although he may try to withdraw from China completely hah)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979640484411928597) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:07Z 6370 followers, XXX engagements


"@S_curvecap see $bme.l"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1940166485651202445) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-07-01T21:51Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"For all those new to the party - don't worry you'll get used to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978194706979868885) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-14T20:22Z 6372 followers, 2552 engagements


"Drinking game rules - one shot per: - Each use of words "cautious" or "uncertainty" - Mention of "tariffs" - Per each question on litho intensity China stockpiling or timing of HNA adoption in logic - 2x shots for any on-the-call-questions on 3D DRAM - Bearish spec sales / sell-side analyst victory lap emails you receive (despite a -XX% move still being +30% off the low) - Double upgrade to buy emails from any sell-side bears on "DRAM order momentum" (but only if stock is +10% on results) Feel free to add any other good ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978200325581349134) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-14T20:44Z 6372 followers, 2641 engagements


"@geoffreykarren @FundamentEdge @JaredKubin Does controlling drawdowns increase alpha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979577972148645951) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T15:59Z 6371 followers, XXX engagements


"And I guess does neutralizing factors successfully neutralize drawdowns so collectively my questions are: 1) what's the point 2) why is that a desirable goal 3) does factor identification and hedging help achieve that goal 4) what is the cost of that hedging (direct or opportunity cost) 5) what is the cost / impact on returns and/or sharpe when it doesn't work as intended"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979579227709071473) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T16:04Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@lokoyacap @rev_cap @TBU12345678 @PythiaR Quickly looking at past cycles it wouldn't be shocking to see memory capex going up XX% pa for the next couple of years - just based on current bbg gross profit estimates which are probably too low (they seem to spend all of their gross profit on capex basically in boom years)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979624222134620295) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T19:02Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"both long cycle in secular growing industries with cyclical kickers and monopolies with pricing power. similar growth rates in bbg. GE makes most money in the AM while ASML makes more money on the OE sale but the LT models are more similar than people realize. TCI (and lots of other HFs) owns one but not the other"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979642814012043308) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:16Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"What's the TSM FCF conversion I own both but imo the capital intensity difference makes up the difference. probably similar risk/rewards at the moment imo with maybe a slight nod to ASML. ASML less tail risk so I'll likely always be larger in it vs tsm. and fwiw TSM consensus capex forecasts are likely far too low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979643825845858631) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:20Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"GE is far more cyclical actually than ASML - doesn't seem that way due to recency bias but ASML hasn't had negative revenue growth since NAND went 3D in 2012. Engine shop visits will have a down cycle one day (likely when SVs go back to X from X one day). Boeing will also eventually build a clean sheet XXX which will be dual sourced and CFM will lose it's monopoly position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979650597134750159) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:47Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@pitandhummus I don't know if GE is mispriced or not. ASML I believe is. Just a random comparison I decided to make bc I was curious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979651026551771583) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:49Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"Engine OE will have a downcycle again one day which hurts decrementals. and when they do clean sheet the XXX you'll likely not only lose share but you'll have to probably spend a bunch of money developing the new engine and then have to go back down the learning curve again. I don't care about cyclicality I'm just pointing out that GE is far from perfect or without risks (like everything)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979653614130844124) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T20:59Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"Litho doesn't have replacement cycles if that's what you are asking about. They still in operation forever. so every new sale is for capacity growth. The point on not making as much in AM is actually opportunity LT for ASML and a biggggg lever they have been slowly pulling and will continue to pull over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979654146895851739) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T21:01Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@pitandhummus Yes - probably higher OP mix for GE actually but ASML margins are similar vs OE. ASML will mix higher in services over time. GE is far easier to model for that reason. But I would argue ease of modeling drives complacency and it's not without risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979654935005516066) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T21:04Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@davey_juice @pitandhummus I'm saying ASML is super cheap homie"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979655078471680214) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T21:05Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL @PythiaR @JerryCap that's when we bought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979718998154727592) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T01:19Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"My numbers haven't changed as I am very careful about that but the bias is to the upside on my estimates and my view of the downside value is now higher. Obviously the stock is not as good today as 2-3 months ago but the path is more clear and you don't face same estimate risks as then. So easier for most now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979723529282101558) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T01:37Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@jake_ayes @tphuang The CCP litho disinfo machine is in overdrive at a pace I've never seen before. Probably best to just ignore them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979771865817374945) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T04:49Z 6372 followers, XXX engagements


"@PythiaR @riddle245 yes the math on $TDG has always been stupid if you ever plugged into your model actually what you thought the business would really earn over time based on how you think it actually works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979936799892877620) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T15:44Z 6375 followers, 1317 engagements


"@cmo040958 Makes sense but I don't want low returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979958993532416179) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T17:13Z 6375 followers, XXX engagements


"Yes but I can see how it's confusing. Learning for learning's sake. Learning to understand. Consuming but not producing or tying data points to immediate investment decisions or reacting on it. Sometimes it takes casting wide net to learn what matters over time and what doesn't. The edge isn't the data point but the understanding the eventually comes from drinking at the fire hydrant. Does that make sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979997098813833416) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T19:44Z 6375 followers, 1034 engagements


"@The_AI_Investor The risk of china figuring out litho on any time scale that is useful or reasonable is close to zero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1980036905593966677) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T22:22Z 6376 followers, 1224 engagements


"I dont have strong view on numbers over next couple of years as thats not how I think about it. But looking at your math quickly it looks like your uptime % is too high (prob closer to XX% for logic and XX% for dram). And most wfe upside likely comes from dram over next few years and Samsung foundry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1980782641143025795) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-21T23:45Z 6378 followers, XXX engagements


"$BME.L This company reports earnings tonight US time (am in the UK). My second biggest position. Been an absolute dog over the last year as they've been missing LFLs on what I think are mostly cyclical issues. Stock has been left for dead and is trading at 7.5x earnings on street numbers (which are probably a little too high). Street bracing for a big margin reset - my estimates are lower than lowest sell-sider but still only trading at 8.5x PE And should grow both LFL and stores from here. I think stock easily has well over XXX% upside. Who knows how it will trade shorter term but this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1944904672227029079) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-07-14T23:39Z 6376 followers, 13.4K engagements


"$BME.l 6.5mm of 19mm of shares traded yesterday were Walleye and DE Shaw shorting the stock on a huge gap down. What are they playing for at this point stock is 6.8x consensus ntm PE with no liquidity issues and LFL's which have stabilized and a new CEO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1945534887076794836) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-07-16T17:23Z 6376 followers, 12K engagements


"lol geeeez. They're still going. Walleye shorting this thing was 1/3 of the volume yesterday. $BME.L"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1947778948550758840) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-07-22T22:01Z 6376 followers, 6527 engagements


"@BubbleBeta $BME.L too - if you look at the 2022 period the stock bottomed well in advance of estimates as well - the stock was +50% off the bottom vs the first upward revision:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1951786882414657754) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-08-02T23:27Z 6376 followers, 1759 engagements


"*top in every stock I own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1974257455455506625) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-03T23:37Z 6376 followers, 10.2K engagements


"Early Happy "$ASML down XX% on uneventful earnings" day for those who celebrate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1978194586209030237) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-14T20:21Z 6379 followers, 36.3K engagements


"$ASML trades at an XX turn discount to $GE as semicap enters its engine AM up-cycle moment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979631845840175227) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T19:33Z 6379 followers, 38.5K engagements


"Best thing I've ever read in one place on the history of $ASML scanners the development of their natural monopoly and the learning curve + scale driven moats (that are arguably more important than their technological ones)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979662306650005640) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-18T21:34Z 6378 followers, 35.5K engagements


"$MCO at a XX turn discount now to $GE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979736379866444084) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T02:28Z 6378 followers, 2876 engagements


"lol this is fun what other high quality businesses used to have a $GE multiple but now trade at an inexplicable double digit discount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1979736990288621732) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-19T02:30Z 6378 followers, 2614 engagements


"45% would be closer to 30mj oee I would think. Uptime I would calculate against 30mj. But I think 50-55% probably. Each layer has different dose so I doubt people would be make that adjustment and instead prob talk about it on nameplate basis. But idk I havent asked experts bc Im not sure it gets you the answer you want bc tsmc likely is pretty guarded about lots of specific details and would change for each node (while uptime and fab efficiency wouldnt). Youll never get the precision you are looking for here so goal with asml always needs to be much more directional"  
[X Link](https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1980786318897467694) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/x/evrgn11112231) 2025-10-22T00:00Z 6377 followers, XXX engagements