# ![@ddnanocap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1515791162547875862.png) @ddnanocap Waldo

Waldo posts on X about $bak, $dsx, debt, $tngrf the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1515791162547875862/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -46%
- [--] Month [------] -67%
- [--] Months [------] +2,832%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1515791162547875862/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +14%
- [--] Month [--] -68%
- [--] Months [---] +2,325%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1515791162547875862/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +3.10%
- [--] Month [---] +11%
- [--] Months [---] +630%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1515791162547875862/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  53% [stocks](/list/stocks)  30% [countries](/list/countries)  7% [currencies](/list/currencies)  4% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  1% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1% [ncaa football](/list/ncaa-football)  1% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[$bak](/topic/$bak) #14, [$dsx](/topic/$dsx) 10%, [debt](/topic/debt) 10%, [$tngrf](/topic/$tngrf) 8%, [math](/topic/math) 7%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 6%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 6%, [$lgo](/topic/$lgo) 5%, [$amlif](/topic/$amlif) 4%, [market cap](/topic/market-cap) 4%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@marcelo12650938](/creator/undefined) [@bullreturns](/creator/undefined) [@sumacumbarden](/creator/undefined) [@pedroloftus](/creator/undefined) [@integramacro](/creator/undefined) [@pierrecappucci1](/creator/undefined) [@acinvestorblog](/creator/undefined) [@sternjatta](/creator/undefined) [@kablaa](/creator/undefined) [@gothamresearch](/creator/undefined) [@calvinfroedge](/creator/undefined) [@kimsin6](/creator/undefined) [@zannismanolis](/creator/undefined) [@dianashipping](/creator/undefined) [@carleygarner](/creator/undefined) [@flashbondtrader](/creator/undefined) [@cryptonoymous](/creator/undefined) [@timmymccarthy](/creator/undefined) [@davidke73483404](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Braskem S.A. American Depositary Shares (BAK)](/topic/$bak) [Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX)](/topic/$dsx) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [FAME AI (FMC)](/topic/$fmc) [Lithium Americas Corp. Common Shares (LAC)](/topic/$lac) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK)](/topic/$wlk) [Dow Inc (DOW)](/topic/$dow)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"1/4 filings on $LGO. Found Solicitation SP8000-26-R-0013 from the DLA. The government states Largo is "in danger of going out of business" due to Chinese market manipulation and is stepping in with an Industrial Mobilization contract to save them http://SAM.gov http://SAM.gov"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019201007230808228)  2026-02-05T00:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"3/4 The math is straightforward. We are trading at [--] while conservative fair value models and DCF analysis sit between [--] and [--]. Strategic acquirers are looking at the diamide cash flows. Any offer below [--] would be a failure to capture the premium this portfolio commands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019198322561675469)  2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/4 contract is a 5-year IDIQ with a $125M ceiling and a max volume of [----] metric tons. The solicitation is restricted to just two suppliers: U.S. Vanadium and Largo. Offers are due this Friday Feb [--]. effectively creates a government-backed duopoly for defense-grade vanadium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019201393547178017)  2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/4 $FMC Board officially putting the company in play changes the entire structure of the trade. Authorization of strategic options including a full sale signals that management finally acknowledges the massive disconnect between the share price and the actual asset value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019198140877062162)  2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"4/4 changes the thesis from a standard distressed asset play to a national security necessity. The US military is putting a floor under the company to secure the supply chain. Federal intervention to prevent insolvency is about as significant a catalyst as you can get. $LGO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019201523528458556)  2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$pll $amlif $lar $lac https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/global-lithium-market-cycle-is-ther=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/global-lithium-market-cycle-is-ther=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1903831020551442485)  2025-03-23T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/5 $TNGRF. Everyone is bearish on thermal coal and thats what makes this setup so interesting. The market is pricing this for terminal decline but the company is a cash-generating fortress. This isn't a "hope" stock; it's a deep value play. Let's look at the numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1987238978169258360)  2025-11-08T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BAK valuation reset 1/3: We are running $600M EBITDA today. PRESIQ drops $350M straight to the bottom line starting next cycle. The PBR deal secures the supply floor. We effectively just re-rated from a distressed 11x to a clean 7x EBITDA without needing the market to turn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002422757615939710)  2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, 13.2K engagements


"2/3: $DOW trades at 7.8x $LYB at 9x and $WLK at 10x on stable operations. Braskem was in the penalty box priced for insolvency. With supply locked and taxes cut that discount is dead. We are now the cheapest major operator with the same structural security as the majors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002422950470074575)  2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 $AMLIF is currently trading at $130M market cap against a combined Project NPV of $9.0B. The stock is pricing in a 98.5% discount to asset value. This valuation assumes the assets are stranded. They are not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216407706505646)  2025-12-25T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 $DSX is broken. The market is pricing in 100% certainty of a bad merger that looks dead on arrival. The stock is pinned at $1.70 while the assets imply $4+. If the GNK bid fails as expected the re-rate is mechanical. Here is the liquidation math the market is ignoring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936653614543134)  2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ACInvestorBlog that company being acquired $GUE had a bunch of smart money slip in MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group): Also filed a "Becoming a substantial holder" notice on January [--] 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2017043985588769194)  2026-01-30T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/4 The public announcement of a strategic review effectively puts a floor under the stock price. We are now holding for the acquisition premium rather than hoping for a cyclical recovery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019198449653256307)  2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SternJatta The legacy biz is just the runwaythe real asset value is in the new active lines (Isoflex fluindapyr Dodhylex) which are guiding for 75%+ growth in [----] to reach $300$400M in revenue. the sum-of-the-parts is significantly higher than the current distress valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019225987456614440)  2026-02-05T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@_kablaa @GothamResearch The real $CVNA story is in the SEC filings. In [--] months loans underwater at origination went from 0% to 36%. All unverified stated income. They added deep subprime borrowers but engineered the mix to keep the average FICO at [---]. Its toxic risk sold as prime. Love it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019228848596934846)  2026-02-05T01:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Urgency vote passed for $BAK. The [----] tax gap is getting patched which adds about $290m back to EBITDA. Huge swing for a name beaten down like this. Thesis is back on track"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2021382032681537727)  2026-02-11T00:33Z [---] followers, 10.5K engagements


"@calvinfroedge Why did anyone sell Ignore this shit. Good ride from [---] so far could hit [--] if u have some patience (please do). If u own [--] bagger stuff this is constant. Go $bak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2022526761171648884)  2026-02-14T04:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/5 Unless the President actively vetoes it by Friday the bill automatically becomes law. A veto is unlikely given today's confirmation that Petrobras will appoint the Chairman of the Board. The government isn't going to take the wheel just to slash the tires"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000745938978017521)  2025-12-16T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$bak [--] mins to go until tacit approval of PRESIQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002201076179583153)  2025-12-20T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For those watching Lula didnt sign but he didnt stop it. Under Brazilian law silence = approval once the 15-day window shuts. This is "Sano Tcita." It's the perfect outcome. The President avoids the political photo-op of a tax break the company still pockets the cash. 2/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386601771471096)  2025-12-20T14:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lets talk numbers because this isn't a small subsidy. We're looking at $300M to $380M USD in annual tax credits starting next cycle. For a company trading at these distressed levels that kind of guaranteed cash flow changes the entire balance sheet math overnight. 3/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386696646603249)  2025-12-20T14:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Combine this with the $17.8B Petrobras supply deal signed Thursday. In the span of [--] hours Braskem secured its feedstock for the next decade AND slashed its tax bill. The "bankruptcy risk" narrative is dead. The "supply cliff" fear is gone. 4/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386814993084426)  2025-12-20T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@kimsin6 The math at sub-$3 is broken. PRESIQ cash flow alone adds $2.50/share to EV at conservative multiples. Were trading like a distressed asset when the floor was just secured by the gov and PBR. Easy re-rate to $4+ on safety/margins before the chemical cycle even turns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002421701708296221)  2025-12-20T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The kicker is the macro 3/3: We are at the cycle bottom. When global spreads normalize late '26 into '27 you get pure margin expansion ON TOP of the tax credits. Thats where the 7x compresses to 4x or the stock doubles to keep pace. Favorable setup into 2027"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002423234709660080)  2025-12-20T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$LGO thesis is simple: US vanadium is $24/lb vs $11/lb globally. Tariffs are currently blocking them from that spread. Watch the Jan [--] defense meetingif the DoD grants an exemption to fix the supply shortage the math changes overnight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002466265416569320)  2025-12-20T19:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SumaCumBarden Reminds me of $sbsw. No way this will not go under etc ignore the retail narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002749999822868768)  2025-12-21T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SumaCumBarden PRESIQ was not a given. Veto on parts was a likely possibility given hawkish finance minister haddad. I dont believe its baked in the price today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002752744252416013)  2025-12-21T14:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 LGO is trading for scraps because the market is lazy. They see a 50% tariff and a cash-burning miner. They missed the two things that matter: the management flush and the NDAA loophole signed [--] hours ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002881541995925783)  2025-12-21T23:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 First house cleaning. The old CEO was a disastertreated this like a science experiment not a business. Burned cash diluted holders ignored the balance sheet. He is gone. Arias is in. This is private equity taking the wheel. No more science projects. Just cash flow focus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002881672073908287)  2025-12-21T23:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/6 Second the macro head fake. Everyone thinks the new Brazil tariff kills LGO. Wrong. The FY26 NDAA (signed Dec 18) changed the game. Look at the amendment to [--] USC 2533c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002881761341247926)  2025-12-21T23:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/6 The NDAA explicitly expands "Qualifying Country" status for critical minerals. Brazil is the target. This creates a legal backdoor. The 50% tariff applies to "dumping" but the DoD can now waive it for "National Security" partners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002881880761434138)  2025-12-21T23:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/6 This turns a headwind into a moat. The tariff blocks generic foreign supply but the NDAA waiver lets LGO through the gate. They get the US defense market to themselves while competitors get walled off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002881978467852734)  2025-12-21T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/6 We are in the 60-day implementation window. DoD guidance is the next catalyst. You are buying a bankruptcy option that turns into a strategic monopoly play if the paperwork clears"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002882129622135094)  2025-12-21T23:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$elvr the lack of interest in this name just shocks me. Bought it when PLL merged it dropped (added more) then ripped. Its a valid hard rock producer (not junior) with stable financing. Nobody seems to care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002902992077615593)  2025-12-22T00:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/5 The Brazilian government slipped the PRESIQ veto into the Official Gazette today (Dec 22) right at the deadline before the recess. While the headline looks bad for $BAK the details suggest this is a political delay tactic rather than a death blow to the program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003161302114664690)  2025-12-22T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/5 What happened: The President sanctioned the core PRESIQ framework but used a "Partial Veto" to gut the specific funding articles (Arts [--] [--] & 8). These were the sections that defined the exact PIS/COFINS tax credit rates for 2025/26the guaranteed margins Braskem needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003161383605797339)  2025-12-22T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/4 Here is what actually matters: The document confirms the REIQ tax rate stays at 0.73% for all of [----]. This plugs the gap. Without this we were looking at a massive tax hike next year. The "partial veto" didn't touch this critical lifeline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003280914827411668)  2025-12-23T01:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/4 This 0.73% rate saves them $300M+ USD in cash flow next year. That effectively covers their entire maintenance capex budget. So while the market frets over the veto details the company just secured its liquidity bridge to the main PRESIQ program in 2027"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003281031001178266)  2025-12-23T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/3 Ive never seen a distressed thesis de-risk this fast. In seven days $BAK solved its three biggest existential threats. First was the Petrobras contract last weeka $17.8B deal securing feedstock through the next decade. Input risk is effectively zero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003299676154687584)  2025-12-23T03:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"2/3 Second is ownership. Novonor signing exclusivity with IG4 signals the end of the "zombie parent" era. The toxic overhang that kept institutions away is clearing out and Petrobras has signaled they are ready to work with the new control group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003299749261406576)  2025-12-23T03:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What else could possibly be needed to get investor interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003300349789315168)  2025-12-23T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Marcelo12650938 My current understanding of this shit show on PRESIQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003821597325672880)  2025-12-24T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Marcelo12650938 1/4 Correcting some of my earlier translation mistakes on the PRESIQ bill for $BAK. I initially thought the [----] credits were intact but a closer read of the Dirio Oficial shows the government vetoed the immediate relief. Specifically Arts [--] [--] and [--] were struck down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003825836705927659)  2025-12-24T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pedro_loftus I had a hedge fund manager teach me the process that they would go overweight if analyst sentiment was bad but fundamentals were there and improving. This is that play. They literally used a spread sheet to allocate points by ratings. Fingers crossed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003844768636518910)  2025-12-24T15:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pedro_loftus U need the negative fuel to drive it when the moron analyst crowd chases price and starts recommending. Just look at silver right now. That is super dangerous at these levels but a year or two ago untouchable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003862282061926409)  2025-12-24T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/5 The Floor: $4.00 Institutions dont buy $10M of a microcap on a whim. The Dec [--] direct offering was priced at $4.00 flat. That is your line in the sand. Smart money stepped in before the spodumene rip. That level is now defended"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004190890823209168)  2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/6 The Falchani deposit (Peru) is volcanic tuff not pegmatite. This geological distinction dictates the processing. It utilizes acid tank leaching rather than the high-temperature roasting required for spodumene. This eliminates calcination lowering energy intensity and OPEX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216646999986565)  2025-12-25T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/6 The immediate catalyst is the Macusani Uranium spin-out (announced Dec [--] 2025). Uranium futures are trading at $81/lb. Macusani asset alone has an NPV that exceeds American Lithiums enterprise value. Shareholders receive the uranium while retaining the lithium assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216875535024313)  2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/6 The recent Nasdaq delisting was a voluntary strategic action not a compliance failure. Management delisted to avoid a reverse split (required to maintain the $1.00 Nasdaq minimum). Moving to the TSX-V preserved the share structure and prevented technical selling pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004217007148040388)  2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5/6 Valuation: Falchani updated PEA (Feb 2024) shows an After-Tax NPV(8%) of $5.11B USD. The TLC project (Nevada) adds $3.26B. The current share price of $0.51 reflects a 0.015x NAV multiple. A re-rate to a standard developer multiple of 0.2x NAV implies a market cap of $1.8B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004217132872356051)  2025-12-25T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$lgo nice pump and dump today. This one will require patience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004689466330689671)  2025-12-26T23:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/6 Why the discount Fear. The market hates the financing structure of the GNK bid which would load them with $1B in new debt. But Genco lowered their poison pill and has ghosted the offer for a month. Signs point to this deal dying. If it dies the leverage fear vanishes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936922595250259)  2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"6/6 Without the merger overhang you own a cash-rich operator trading at 0.35x NAV. Downside is capped by the cash and liquid securities (over $3/sh gross). Upside is a double just to get to a standard 0.7x NAV discount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004937002303840376)  2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$cvna turd finally implode no more index buying and valued as a distressed subprime auto lender (of course with a sister organization to off load the bad books on daddy's bankroll). garcia would say "gives us the best chance to keep the party going". does it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2006495303315382358)  2025-12-31T22:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$bak nice hate selling not even tax loss. Lets get this done with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007131444142080361)  2026-01-02T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/12 LIQUIDITY STATUS: Largo executed a binding term sheet in Oct [----] to defer $84.2M in principal debt payments until March [----]. The agreement includes a mandatory cash sweep covenant that forces 80% of any capital raised or asset sale to be used for principal repayment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518343054672087)  2026-01-03T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/12 TRADE POLICY: Executive Order [-----] tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50%. This currently applies to the High Purity Vanadium (V2O5) used in aerospace and defense. US defense supply chain must now pay a 50% duty on Brazilian metal or formally seek a National Security exemption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518624253358532)  2026-01-03T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10/12 SURVIVAL (BASE CASE): If the sale bridges liquidity to late [----] and exemptions are granted the stock re-rates to a standard producer multiple. normalized EBITDA of $60M (at historic $8.50/lb avg) a 5x EV/EBITDA implies a share price of $3.25 roughly 3x current levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007520191283089737)  2026-01-03T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZannisManolis Not pretty but looks bottomed with $gnk stake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2008692280027197750)  2026-01-07T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/12 BLUE SKY VALUATION (CYCLE PEAK): If the Bushveld/Russia supply void causes a shortage spike to $12/lb+ in [----] margins expand significantly. At $144M implied EBITDA the valuation can exceed $600M market cap ($8.00+ per share). This assumes no further equity dilution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2007520348640514325)  2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ATLX at $4.00. $SGML is ripping and this is the direct neighbor in the Lithium Valley sharing the same prolific geology. Institutions established a hard floor here on Dec [--]. Jan catalysts ahead with FID and construction launch starting the road to production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002482873035862221)  2025-12-20T20:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"12/12 This is a call option. The bear case is insolvency in Q2 [----] if the asset sale fails. The bull case is a 3x-8x return driven by the tungsten liquidity bridge and US trade exemptions. You are paying for the option on survival not current operations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2007520557428875275)  2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BULLReturns $amlif"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1899285266151669789)  2025-03-11T02:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$arry Impact of New Broad Tariffs on Array Technologies (ARRY) https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1907959187092680841)  2025-04-04T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@IntegraMacro @BULLReturns Yea that kind of Sucked. Got some filled at [-----] but then jumped on 10x normal volume. Who stepped in i wonder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1961559327983968356)  2025-08-29T22:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IntegraMacro @BULLReturns I guess ill take the $amlif move up as solace :). Good picks guys seriously first rate. Thank u"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1961559957788070288)  2025-08-29T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/x $dsx The dry bulk macro is split. The "bullish" case is for large Capesize ships: high rates ($26k/day) + a low orderbook (few new ships"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981509855245390165)  2025-10-23T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/x So how is @DianaShipping ($DSX) exposed Their 36-vessel fleet is weighted 2:1 toward the "bearish" segment. 1/3 (12 vessels) are in the "bullish" Capesize class. 2/3 (24 vessels) are in the "bearish" Panamax/Ultramax class"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510168203469163)  2025-10-23T23:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/x But $DSX management has a clear strategy. For their 1/3 "bullish" Capesize fleet they're cashing in renewing contracts at peak market rates (e.g. one ship moving from $20k to $26k/day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510307542683932)  2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5/x For their 2/3 "bearish" Panamax fleet they're de-risking. They are locking in new rates (e.g. $8.4k ➔ $11.7k) that while below today's spot market guarantee strong profits through the expected [----] downturn. Tweet 6/9: 206"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510391654969713)  2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/x This strategy means $DSX revenues are set to improve as all these new higher-paying contracts replace old cheap ones. Analyst estimates agree forecasting revenue growth from $224M to $264M by 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510503055970668)  2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7/x This brings us to the valuation disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in only the risks (2/3 fleet exposure high debt) and none of the rewards (improving revenue smart chartering). $DSX currently trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of just 0.4x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510623742816454)  2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8/x To put that 0.4x P/B in perspective: [--]. It's at the low end of its 5-year historical range (0.4x-0.8x). [--]. It's a massive 50%+ discount to peers like $GOGL $SBLK & $GNK which trade at 0.8x-0.9x P/B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510749710094758)  2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"9/x The core debate: The market is pricing $DSX at [----] crisis levels. Is this a deep value opportunity (due to locked-in revenue) or a value trap (due to fleet mix & debt)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510869889491057)  2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/5 The valuation for $TNGRF is absurdly cheap. It's trading at: 0.46x Price/Book (paying [--] cents for $1 of assets) 4.5x P/E Ratio (earnings valued at near-zero) 0.34x Price/Sales This is "priced-for-bankruptcy" territory. But"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1987239121669255277)  2025-11-08T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/5 .the balance sheet is the exact opposite of bankruptcy. $TNGRF is a fortress. As of mid-2025 the company has: ZERO Debt. A net cash position of R6.3 billion (over $400M USD). Billions more in undrawn credit facilities. It can outlast any cyclical downturn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1987239220851712195)  2025-11-08T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/5 While the market panics $TNGRF management is rewarding shareholders. In [----] alone: Multiple share buyback programs (R328M completed new R140M announced). Paid a dividend (interim div of R2/share). You are literally being paid to wait for the sentiment to turn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1987239333334814856)  2025-11-08T19:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/5 The bull case for $TNGRF isn't that coal prices will moon. It's that they don't have to. The market has oversold the name ignoring the rock-solid balance sheet massive FCF & shareholder returns. This is what a "margin of safety" looks like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1987239432475316455)  2025-11-08T19:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$asps yep sell off makes total sense. you would think the lenders would hold the shares a bit in this environment but i guess not https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1999124794084839578)  2025-12-11T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/5 The math on $DSX right now is actually offensive. If youre buying at these levels ($1.80) you arent paying for a shipping company. You are buying a pile of $GNK stock and getting [--] dry bulk vessels for scrap value. Here is the arbitrage trade nobody is talking about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000232646463614987)  2025-12-14T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/5 Why "Deal Failure" = Bullish You WANT Genco to say no. If the deal goes Diana loads up on debt to fund it. When it fails Diana is stuck with a massive $130M liquid asset they can't control. The most logical exit Spin it off to us. A special dividend of $1.00/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000233237935976832)  2025-12-14T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/5 Yes the Paliou family governance is bad for common. But at a $1.60 cost basis you have a margin of safety. Heads = Special dividend (you get paid). Tails = You own ships for pennies on the dollar. Asymmetric bet. Long $DSX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000233515292746122)  2025-12-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BULLReturns Thoughts on $tngrf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000234059792777353)  2025-12-14T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/2 Lets run the "grown-up" math on $DSX using Enterprise Value (EV). $200M Market Cap + $517M Net Debt = $717M Total EV. Subtract the $120M liquid Genco ($GNK) stake and you are paying an adjusted EV of $597M for the operating fleet. That comes out to $15.7M per vessel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000263322399363188)  2025-12-14T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BAK silent victory. The Friday midnight deadline passed with zero noise from Brasilia. No veto. No drama. Just the clock running out. That means PRESIQ is officially a go via "Tacit Sanction." The turnaround thesis just got its second massive green light in [--] hours. 1/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386272657068325)  2025-12-20T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"1/3 $TNGRF is ripping because the market priced in a total logistics collapse and got stability instead. Transnet volumes are ticking up and production guidance held. When sentiment is this toxic you don't need great newsyou just need "not a disaster" to force a re-rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002901200010871070)  2025-12-22T00:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/4 $BAK $BRKM5 filing is out for the PRESIQ law. You're going to see headlines about a "partial veto" from the President. Ignore the noiseit's not a thesis killer. The veto likely trimmed some fringe benefits but the core "bridge" to [----] was left completely intact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003280808380125574)  2025-12-23T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Marcelo12650938 Less market dumping from china yeaaaaa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004219956704301144)  2025-12-25T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Marcelo12650938 $tngrf also richards bay coal is like a $20 per ton cheaper than newcastle. China consumption will close that gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004229142146101603)  2025-12-25T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/6 Start with the fleet valuation. Management confirmed their net debt to asset value is 54%. With net debt sitting around $511m that implies the steel in the water is currently worth $946m. That is conservative given December capesize rates pushing $44k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936723869106513)  2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/6 Now add the liquidity. Q3 cash on hand was $140m. They also own 6.4m shares of GNK which is worth another $120m at current market prices. Total assets (Fleet + Cash + GNK stake) come out to roughly $1.2 billion. Total debt is only $651m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936779607277747)  2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/6 Do the subtraction. $1.2B in assets minus $651m in debt leaves $555m in Net Asset Value. With 115.8m shares outstanding that is a liquidation value of $4.79 per share. The stock trades at $1.70. You are paying [--] cents on the dollar for hard assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936835106291943)  2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/12 COMPETITOR LIQUIDATION: Bushveld Minerals (South Africa) filed for liquidation on April [--] [----] and was delisted from AIM in May. This removes [----] to [----] mtV per year from global supply represents approximately 15% of non-Chinese and non-Russian primary production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007517955131949249)  2026-01-03T18:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/12 MARKET POSITIONING: The departure of Bushveld leaves a significant gap in Western supply chains. With Evraz (Russia) under strict sanctions and Bushveld operations offline Largo remains the sole major Western-aligned primary vanadium producer currently operating at scale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518140411076864)  2026-01-03T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@carleygarner congrats i think you got this one. odd circumstance of unfortunate events for oil but your call will be correct. $acdc puke to [----] then buy. thx great insights"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007609986365665650)  2026-01-04T00:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/4 Pierre Brondeau is a proven deal maker. He did not return to the helm to oversee a multi-year operational slog. He is there to crystallize value. The likelihood of a sale is very high because his incentives are aligned with a liquidity event rather than a long turnaround"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019198229825659052)  2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@flashbondtrader Clearly when crapto goes down this should too. This will decouple from that shit but it will take a week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019610723492737282)  2026-02-06T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/5 The Spodumene Trade: $ATLX vs $ELVR The hard rock lithium sector is waking up. Elevra ($ELVR) is the producer leading the charge but Atlas Lithium ($ATLX) is the high-beta play catching a bid. Here is the setup on Atlas specifically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004190773290401936)  2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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