# ![@david_eng_mba Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2155321614.png) @david_eng_mba David 🇺🇸

David 🇺🇸 posts on X about bitcoin, liquidity, gamma, math the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2155321614/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2155321614/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] -53%
- [--] Month [---------] -45%
- [--] Months [---------] +5,230%
- [--] Year [---------] +2,910%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2155321614/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] -6.70%
- [--] Month [---] +23%
- [--] Months [---] +831%
- [--] Year [---] +1,212%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2155321614/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +5.80%
- [--] Month [------] +38%
- [--] Months [------] +938%
- [--] Year [------] +1,516%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2155321614/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2155321614/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #1614 [finance](/list/finance)  33.09% [countries](/list/countries)  2.94% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  #495 [stocks](/list/stocks)  2.21% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.74% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  0.74% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.74% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.74%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #701, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #109, [gamma](/topic/gamma) #64, [math](/topic/math) #1436, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5.88%, [gas](/topic/gas) #1876, [flow](/topic/flow) 5.88%, [strong](/topic/strong) #3096, [money](/topic/money) 4.41%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 4.41%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@veritasvoslibe4](/creator/undefined) [@surfinthebtc](/creator/undefined) [@0xpreneur](/creator/undefined) [@btcevangelist81](/creator/undefined) [@moneyordebt](/creator/undefined) [@ratellance](/creator/undefined) [@ceegix](/creator/undefined) [@gstradingteam](/creator/undefined) [@therealdhr](/creator/undefined) [@innumerissat](/creator/undefined) [@martypartymusic](/creator/undefined) [@digidollarsbtm](/creator/undefined) [@defi_dude](/creator/undefined) [@dotkrueger](/creator/undefined) [@nba_computerman](/creator/undefined) [@georgfoerster](/creator/undefined) [@ecofreedom](/creator/undefined) [@ken00554732](/creator/undefined) [@quintenfrancois](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Exponent Inc (EXPO)](/topic/$expo) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"BITCOIN IS MATHEMATICALLY COILED FOR $118K+ [--] years of data. [----] daily observations. R298%. The Log Periodic Power-Law model (LPPL) has predicted every major cycle peak since [----]. Right now the math is screaming one thing: The spring is loaded. [--]. The Signal: Coiling Bitcoin is trading below its 16-year structural trend (negative residuals). Historically this setup has preceded major rallies. This is accumulation not failure. [--]. The Track Record: [--] for [--] No curve-fitting. Peaks are identified via physics (period-doubling). Next projected peak (2027): $400k$600k. [--]. The Statistical Proof"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2002527834322174084)  2025-12-20T23:53Z 21.6K followers, 44.5K engagements


"THE $300M GAMMA TRAP: How Dealer Algorithms Are Pinning Bitcoin at $87K Before the Snap [--]. The Standoff: Trapped Between Two Walls As of this morning Bitcoin is trading at $87378. The price action is not random; it is mechanically trapped in a tight range defined by massive derivative structures shown in the Gamma Exposure Profile. The Floor ($85000): This is the "Put Wall" and the "Max Gamma" strike. It holds $98.8 Million in Put Gamma. This creates a magnetic floor where dealers are forced to buy absorbing any selling pressure. The Ceiling ($90000): This is the "Call Wall" sitting just"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2003531464726790154)  2025-12-23T18:21Z 21.6K followers, 268.2K engagements


"Why Bitcoin Will Surpass Gold A conservative first-principles proof A First-Principles Supply Analysis This conclusion relies on neither narrative ideology nor the extrapolation of recent price action. It is derived entirely from supply mathematics and thermodynamic constraints under deliberately conservative assumptions. I approach this comparison with direct operational experience in both areas: I have developed a gold mine and I have converted natural gas into electricity for Bitcoin mining. When these two systems are evaluated by their underlying cost and supply functions the outcome is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2003708776382341383)  2025-12-24T06:06Z 21.6K followers, 42.1K engagements


"Bitcoins next wave of believers wont come from ETFs itll come from collapsing currencies. Iran's Rial just hit [-------] to the dollar. Down 40% since June. This isnt geopolitics noise its [--] million people learning why Bitcoin exists. The pattern is undeniable: Venezuela's currency collapsed. They moved oil revenue into USDT. Tether froze [--] wallets. Iran watched. Took notes. They moved to USDT too. Tether froze [--] more wallets in July. There are only two kinds of money: Freezable. Unfreezable. Stable coins A leash. Gold Can't move it. Yuan CCP strings attached. Every door closes except one."  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2010745705275752674)  2026-01-12T16:08Z 20.5K followers, 27.9K engagements


"Iran isn't the thesis. It's one data point in a much larger pattern. There are 20+ currencies in active collapse right now. The damage: Lebanese Pound: down 98% since [----] Venezuelan Bolvar: down 50% in [--] months (269% inflation projected for 2025) Iranian Rial: down 40% since June Syrian Pound: down 99% since [----] (47 11000+ per dollar) Nigerian Naira: down 70% since [----] reforms Egyptian Pound: down 60% since early [----] Turkish Lira: down 80% over [--] years Argentine Peso: down 90%+ over [--] years Pakistani Rupee: down 35% since [----] Ethiopian Birr: down 50% since float in [----] Myanmar Kyat:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2010749818390659363)  2026-01-12T16:24Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why Bitcoin Explodes at Settlement and Not Adoption (Paper vs Spot) Given this structure a [--] to 10X Bitcoin settlement squeeze is not just possible its the likely outcome. Most people think Bitcoin rallies on adoption. Thats wrong. Bitcoin reprices when claims are forced to settle. Paper vs Spot: The Core Mistake There are two Bitcoins trading under the same ticker: Spot Bitcoin bearer asset on chain final settlement capped at 21M. Paper Bitcoin exchange balances ETFs derivatives lending claims. Same ticker. Different physics. Price is not set by total supply. Price is set by marginal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2016322981623206255)  2026-01-28T01:30Z 21.6K followers, 44.9K engagements


"How to get Bitcoin upside with 85% less capital exposed to downside Red days are when risk management matters. Green days are when its ignored. Most investors think skin in the game means putting their skin on the line. They think to get $100k of upside you must risk losing $50k. That isnt conviction. Thats overpaying for risk. Here is the math. The Inefficiency The default strategy is 100% Spot. If you buy $100k of Bitcoin you have 1:1 exposure. If it doubles you make $100k. If it drops 50% you lose $50k. You are paying full price for the downside just to access the upside. There is a more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2016902106268242004)  2026-01-29T15:51Z 20.5K followers, 23.8K engagements


"Bitcoin Isnt Trading on News Right Now Its Trading on the Pipes Becoming Unplugged Everyone is hunting for a macro narrative: the Fed geopolitical friction or a value debate. But the tape shows a different reality. Right now Bitcoins price action is a byproduct of mechanical constraints. This isn't a debate about the future of money; it's an expiry driven liquidity event. [--]. The Mechanical Driver: The 30JAN26 Gamma Unpinning The most important factor right now isn't "bullish" or "bearish" sentiment its the unwinding of a major share of near dated gamma in the near-dated complex. The Trap: For"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017086636618895379)  2026-01-30T04:05Z 20.5K followers, 43.5K engagements


"Its interesting to note that after January [----] (the introduction of ETFs like BlackRocks IBIT) Bitcoin and ISM PMI begin to decouple. Bitcoin is flatter despite a weakening PMI supporting a price floor. From a macroeconomic standpoint that interpretation makes sense new ETF driven Bitcoin buyers are less sensitive to business cycles. Going forward how do you think that will affect the relationship Thanks. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017384606312632337 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017384606312632337"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017384606312632337)  2026-01-30T23:49Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"The Absorption Problem: What Bitcoins Price Action Is Really Saying Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing capital at elevated rates. Volume across IBIT FBTC ARKB is running [----] normal. Demand is real. Yet price fell 10% in a week. On Jan [--] roughly 1/3 of the gamma pin expired and price moved lower. Thats not a mystery the 1/3 of the pin was released and selling pressure dominated. If large steady buyers exist and price still drops then a larger more urgent seller is present. Thats arithmetic not narrative. Rule out the usual excuses: Not a leverage flush. Perp funding is 0% annualized. In real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017672406761095666)  2026-01-31T18:52Z 20.5K followers, 30.9K engagements


"https://grokipedia.com/page/Ornstein%E2%80%93Uhlenbeck_process https://grokipedia.com/page/Ornstein%E2%80%93Uhlenbeck_process"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017840302204256264)  2026-02-01T05:59Z 20.5K followers, 16.1K engagements


"@Veritasvoslibe4 Thanks My business is in oil and gas development commodity hedging and M&A. Ive been doing that for decades so this is a lot of fun for me. Unlike anything Ive done before Bitcoin is more predictable over the long term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017981133326270716)  2026-02-01T15:19Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I didnt arrive at my views on Bitcoin from theory. I arrived at them from engineering. A project converting natural gas into Bitcoin. That strips away abstraction and forces physics costs and constraints. Seen through that lens Bitcoins price behavior is obvious. Bitcoin is not a random walk. It has a thermodynamic floor. Every coin requires real energy and real work. When price approaches cost miners shut off. Hash rate falls. Issuance slows. Selling pressure collapses. When price runs far above cost supply reappears through mining hedging and financial reuse. Upside doesnt stop but it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2018183424469877042)  2026-02-02T04:43Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The One Number That Explains Bitcoins Price The number is [----]. Thats Bitcoins Z-score. If youre not a statistician heres all that means: a Z-score tells you how far price is stretched from whats normal. Z = [--] price is normal Z [--] price is stretched high Z [--] price is stretched low It doesnt predict hype. It measures tension. Heres why [----] matters. At this point after every prior halving Bitcoin was above trend: 2012: +1.02 2016: +1.32 2020: +0.48 Today: [----] That has never happened before. Not once in [--] years. What the numbers say next I ran the full dataset: [----] daily observations. Every"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2018539351836402106)  2026-02-03T04:17Z 21.6K followers, 124.3K engagements


"The Market Thinks Bitcoin Is Weak. The Math Says $75k vs $123k Bitcoin looks broken if you stare at candles. The math works if you separate two forces: 1) ETF flow & hedging determines short-term price formation. 2) Fixed supply rising production cost and statistical mean reversion determine the long-run map. The anchor hasnt moved: power-law z-score: [-----] trend value: $122681 spot: $75957 discount: -38.2% That gap is real. Whats actually moving price right now is mechanical deleveraging. This is not leverage piling in. Its leverage coming out. price (30d): -19.5% open interest (30d): -21.6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2018889918018363673)  2026-02-04T03:30Z 21.6K followers, 24.1K engagements


"Thanks appreciate it. Other than what I post here nothing is else is public. Most of the analysis comes from my own scripts and I rewrite the narrative until its clear to me. Its basically like painting for me. My background is in energy engineering physics statistics and finance which fits bitcoin extremely well. I started doing it for myself as a BTC holder then decided to share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2018899552024301944)  2026-02-04T04:08Z 20.6K followers, [---] engagements


"This graph is extremely important with Bitcoin near $73K. Pricing below Bitcoins thermodynamic floor is economically unsustainable over time because it forces marginal producers offline. As miners shut down sell pressure collapses supply tightens and the system removes supply until price can no longer remain below cost. As can be seen on the graph the floor rises over time. Great opportunity. #DYOR https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019196918245781704 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019196918245781704"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019196918245781704)  2026-02-04T23:50Z 21.6K followers, 21.2K engagements


"Bitcoin is Mispriced by $51K. Market Dynamic Controlling Price: Price is mostly being set by forced flows in derivatives/hedging not by long-term holders selling their coins. Value: power-law trend value: $122762 spot: $72118 gap: $51K (growing) discount: 41% z-score: [----] (far below baseline vs normal historical fluctuation) Positioning (30d) price: 19.4% open interest: +6.9% (leverage/hedging building into weakness) Current state futures OI: $1.986B options OI: $0.397B 20d vol: [-----] (high leverage + high vol = forced moves) squeeze probability: 70% probability If price turns positioning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019252142968861156)  2026-02-05T03:30Z 21.6K followers, 48.9K engagements


"Bitcoin isnt a random coin flip market. It behaves more like a regime-switching path-dependent non-linear stochastic system with structural constraints where small inputs can trigger disproportionately large moves even though outcomes remain probabilistic. Structural constraints: Programmatic supply decay (hard-coded) Network effects (Metcalfe's Law) Scarcity economics (fixed supply + growing utility = convex value) Reflexive leverage (creates overshoots and mean-reversion) Bullish doesnt mean up only. It means price formation is not pure noise. Evidence: Hurst exponent: H [----] (random walk ="  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019670188837466258)  2026-02-06T07:11Z 21.6K followers, 64.9K engagements


"Important to understand: If Bitcoin were truly random the optimal Kelly allocation would be [--]. In this world the rational choice is just buy an index like S&P500. Its only because of the edge the Kelly allocation is 0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019792342706692331)  2026-02-06T15:16Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin's spot market absorbed massive forced selling (from gamma unwinds dealer hedging and TradFi blowups) without structural collapse. The system is resilient. We will likely see a lot of short squeezes in the future. I can see the pressure build up it in the paper/BTC market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019885714461323643 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019885714461323643"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019885714461323643)  2026-02-06T21:27Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Giovann35084111 nice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019957839184425315)  2026-02-07T02:14Z 20.5K followers, [---] engagements


"1.43 million views. This is the ad Bitcoin never had to buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019959407245992226)  2026-02-07T02:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge Agree The harder faster and easily verifiable money will win over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019961022900236374)  2026-02-07T02:26Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"yes always good to be specific. Thanks Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = (Final Value / Initial Value)(1/n) [--] Assume: Final BTC price = $1500000 in [----] Time horizon = [--] years No additional contributions (pure buy-and-hold) Entry at $60k: BTC purchased = [------] / [-----] = [------] BTC Final value = [------] [-------] = [-------] CAGR = (2500000 / 100000)(1/9) [--] = 25(1/9) [--] 42.9% per year Entry at $120k: BTC purchased = [------] / [------] = [------] BTC Final value = [------] [-------] = [-------] CAGR = (1250000 / 100000)(1/9) [--] = 12.5(1/9) [--] 32.5% per year Major point: The biggest mistake isnt buying too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019998422364045329)  2026-02-07T04:55Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Time does the heavy lifting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019998752426324296)  2026-02-07T04:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"yes Every power-law model differs slightly: days vs months sample windows smoothing slope fit. Its trivial compared to Bitcoins actual volatility. When price regularly swings 3060% around trend small differences in slope or fair value are meaningless for buy/sell decisions. Takeaway: Exposure matters. Precision doesnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019999756102365201)  2026-02-07T05:00Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$54K BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq) Bullish Long-Term Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves. Short-term macro clock: BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now. 30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731 S&P +0.727 HYG +0.665 VIX +0.543. Recency-weighted correlation confirms it: Nasdaq +0.585 S&P +0.584. Lead/lag signal: S&P and Russell tend to lead BTC by [--] day HYG by [--] days VIX by [--] days Nasdaq by [--] days DXY by [--] days. What that means: If equities/credit soften BTC usually feels it shortly after. Short-term direction is macro-led not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020234759029551195)  2026-02-07T20:34Z 21.6K followers, 12.5K engagements


"My framework is 100% math driven: model probability and risk: no opinion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020236558583103754 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020236558583103754"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020236558583103754)  2026-02-07T20:41Z 20.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Short-term at some point we will see a huge short squeeze. Price -22.4% with OI +6.9% and paper/spot +37.6% yields a 71/100 suppression score: leverage expanded while spot weakened. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020240725200499087 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020240725200499087"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020240725200499087)  2026-02-07T20:58Z 20.5K followers, [--] engagements


"Agree. Bitcoin is being used as collateral a lot for yield and that yield is funded by short gamma. When too many participants hedge at once short gamma destabilizes the market. We will likely see a large short squeeze to the upside over the next year. I can see the pressure building in the numbers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020247337579475285 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020247337579475285"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020247337579475285)  2026-02-07T21:24Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Thanks No its not related to Bitcoin. My business is oil and gas development. I do this analysis bc I own bitcoin and just decided to share. Also I am involved in a natural gas to bitcoin project. I do have subscribers for whom I provide requested analysis. I have lots of scripts that I run that evaluate the financial and bitcoin market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020328205530341404)  2026-02-08T02:45Z 20.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@ecofreedom @dotkrueger no there isnt a % of cold storage that prevents derivatives games. The music stops when there is no marginal BTC available to hedge. When that happens the games stop instantly and violently to the upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020339836654408101)  2026-02-08T03:32Z 20.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Yeah I see that a lot. Two points: First many people underestimate how powerful Bitcoins pull to its long-term trend is. Price can wander but over time it mean-reverts to its power-law trend value. The pull is strong and is quantifiable. Second many participants are over-leveraged so when price drops they are forced to sell. Proper position sizing and a long-term holding strategy are what determine whether you still own Bitcoin when its above $1 million. Most current holders wont make it that far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020517040642314635)  2026-02-08T15:16Z 20.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Ken00554732 @GordonGekko MSTR has historically moved about 1.52.0 BTC. Position sizing is even more important"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020531833163976770)  2026-02-08T16:15Z 20.5K followers, [---] engagements


"💯 Important: Everyone should be careful to use a solid well-capitalized exchange with a proven track record and financials. For BTC: Other than self I prefer FBTC because Fidelity maintains direct custody and full control of the coins. IBIT is solid as well but it relies on Coinbase for custody. For options and derivatives I use Schwab. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020649093048225961 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020649093048225961"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020649093048225961)  2026-02-09T00:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoins -$54K Mispricing 1-Year Model Path: $161K (+133%) Spot: $69K Power-law fair value: $123K Gap: -$54K (-44% Z = [-----] statistically very attractive) Math: At an 18-month horizon this Z-score explains about 5562% of the variation in future returns (R=0.555 with overlapping windows; R=0.617 with non-overlapping windows; n=9 independent periods). Means: Historically more than half of the difference in 18-month outcomes lines up with how far Bitcoin started above or below its long-term trend. If mean reversion follows the historical half-life (133 days) most of the gap closes over the next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020901935763931565)  2026-02-09T16:45Z 21.6K followers, 10.4K engagements


"Bitcoin has low short-term predictability and high long-term predictability. At short horizons models are mostly noise (R 0.050.15). At long horizons trend structure dominates (R 0.96)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020934953329172975)  2026-02-09T18:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Yep BTC $75k is the easy part. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020976919978909828 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020976919978909828"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020976919978909828)  2026-02-09T21:43Z 20.5K followers, [--] engagements


"If BTC holds above 71K 75k is reachable. Net GEX: -$24M (not extreme but slightly unstable) Squeeze score: 58/100 (elevated not panic) Amplification: 1.02x (mild not explosive) Max gamma strike: [-----] (pin magnet) Big gamma cliffs ahead: Feb [--] and Mar [--] (22% each of total gamma) Net market-buy minus market-sell volume required ($M) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979053810032699 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979053810032699"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020979053810032699)  2026-02-09T21:52Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Simple math (beta framework): S&P doubles = +100% BTC beta to S&P (90d average) = [----] Expected BTC return [----] 100% = +200% Starting at $70000: Price multiplier = [--] + [----] = [----] BTC estimate = $70000 [----] = $210000 So the beta-implied estimate is $210K. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020983219538235495 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020983219538235495"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020983219538235495)  2026-02-09T22:08Z 21.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheBTCTherapist @0xChiefy No Way below its thermodynamic floor price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2020992808073691415)  2026-02-09T22:46Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@home_timelcode 100% I think bitcoin is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Over my career Ive evaluated oil natural gas gold and many other assets. Ive never seen anything with this combination of short-term volatility and long-term statistical predictability. #DYOR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021063681774407920)  2026-02-10T03:28Z 21.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Hurst exponent history: In the 1950s a hydrologist named Harold Hurst studied the Nile River to figure out how big reservoirs should be. He found something surprising: water flows had long memory. Wet periods and dry periods clustered more than standard random models predicted. That finding became the Hurst exponent (H) a simple way to measure memory in a time series. Later Benot Mandelbrot expanded this idea with fractals and showed it mattered far beyond rivers including markets. Today H is used to ask one practical question: is this series behaving like noise a trend or mean reversion H"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021065027919176070)  2026-02-10T03:33Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@eleutron2 True ETFs are not bullish by default; they are flow amplifiers in both directions. The real signal is whether patient net demand over time is greater than sell flow if yes supply tightens and price eventually reprices higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021083252086407173)  2026-02-10T04:46Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Good question. When I detrend with the power law rather than assuming exponential growth H comes in higher. 0.570.61 moves to roughly 0.590.64 with power law residuals. As you're aware just makes the narrative stronger. Thanks https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021113394410271079 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021113394410271079"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021113394410271079)  2026-02-10T06:45Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Yes very unfortunate. Oil production falls from [------] million barrels/year in the 1980s to [---] million in [----] Imports (foreign crude) rise from [----] million barrels/year in the early 1980s to [---] million barrels/year by [----]. Californias oil decline was due to regulatory policy focused on transitioning away from oil and gas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021117546779529273)  2026-02-10T07:02Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"New technologies dont look useful until they become unavoidable. When usefulness is obvious the option to buy at a reasonable price is gone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021123954174460241)  2026-02-10T07:27Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"BTW These regulations didnt reduce pollution they increased it. California shut down local oil produced under some of the strictest environmental standards in the world and replaced it with crude from countries with far weaker oversight. That shift alone adds roughly [--] million tons of CO per year just from tanker shipping before accounting for higher upstream emissions at the source. The policy exported production not pollution. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021293781841215851 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021293781841215851"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021293781841215851)  2026-02-10T18:42Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@jv_finance True as a floor. Bitcoin unlike other commodities is supply inelastic (limited to [--] million). This will eventually likely lead to bitcoins price exceeding $1 million"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021312907867230655)  2026-02-10T19:58Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"When price is down conviction gets tested. Todays read: Price weak Leverage still elevated (Paper-to-spot ratio: +36.3% in [--] days) Flows still soft That is short-term pressure not necessarily long-term damage. In Bitcoin short-term price is set by marginal forced sellers. Size your position so volatility cannot force you out. Long-term value is set by fixed supply + adoption. Long term thesis is still in tact. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021318321266885078 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021318321266885078"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021318321266885078)  2026-02-10T20:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@QuintenFrancois Yep it's a leading indicator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021319591058866654)  2026-02-10T20:25Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"A power law is a long-horizon trend model and this one remains intact. As-of date: 2026-02-10 Fitted relationship: log10(Ratio) = [--------] + 5.7403log10(t) R: [------] Projection threshold: Ratio = [--] reached on 2036-12-15 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335315756220734 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335315756220734"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021335315756220734)  2026-02-10T21:27Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@QuintenFrancois Bitcoin can go to prices below cost; it rarely stays there bc the network is engineered to adapt purge weak supply and re-equilibrate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021337578604216521)  2026-02-10T21:36Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi Yep Bitcoin has crossed from speculative to institutionally unavoidable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021339484319776980)  2026-02-10T21:44Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@Veritasvoslibe4 @QuintenFrancois BTC will likely decouple from IGV after the market structure shifts from macro liquidity pricing to scarcity pricing". For now pretty tight fit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021383256713855143)  2026-02-11T00:38Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements


"Bitcoins Hidden Edge: Hard to Trade Powerful to Hold Most people ask the wrong question. They ask Where is Bitcoin next week The better question is At what horizon does signal beat noise Hurst exponent (H) helps answer that: H = [---] random walk H [---] persistence H [---] mean reversion In my latest tests rolling 120-day Hurst sits mostly above [----] (persistence zone) with only a small share of windows in mean-reversion territory. So the market does shift regimes but not in a way that gives a stable short-term trading edge. I also compared raw log returns vs power-law residual construction."  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021389791674368494)  2026-02-11T01:04Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"good question Mean reversion is a tendency to return to trend value line (middle line below) not a directional forecast; direction is set by whether price is above or below the power law trend value. If below goes up and vice versa. The trend value line is the log-space least-squares trend that minimizes total squared deviation of price around it; reversion means residuals tend to move back toward that line over time. R2 96% (great fit a straight line of data is 1.0) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021396145537417386 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021396145537417386"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021396145537417386)  2026-02-11T01:29Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@intell_invest Yes I get that. The power law and fixed supply (21 million) are unique to monetized energy (bitcoin)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021406291269386586)  2026-02-11T02:09Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@alistairmilne Best to look at on a log-log graph"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021429826658369702)  2026-02-11T03:43Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Good question. Software is earnings discounted by rates. Bitcoin is fixed supply plus network adoption. One is cash flow. The other is scarcity. The BTCIGV fit looks strong because they share the same liquidity cycle. When liquidity expands IGV moves first. Bitcoin then amplifies it. When liquidity tightens Bitcoin falls harder. IGV isnt a power law. Its just a clean proxy for risk appetite. Bitcoin is the higher-beta expression of that same regime. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021606093378687071 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021606093378687071"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021606093378687071)  2026-02-11T15:23Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements


"IGV leads BTC by [--] days with the strongest significance in the set. IGV moves first because its where institutional risk is repriced first; BTC reacts next as the higher-beta liquidity asset. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021638641978945933 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021638641978945933"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021638641978945933)  2026-02-11T17:33Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"That means a lot thank you. Giovanni deserves real credit. He was the one who originally identified the relationship between the power law and Bitcoins price: the Einstein of bitcoin. @moneyordebt has done groundbreaking work. Im simply standing on the shoulders of the greats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021655568453447680)  2026-02-11T18:40Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@AlgisLorian Mathematically it comes from an OrnsteinUhlenbeck (OU) process. What it tells you is approximately how long it takes to recoup half the gap between the trend price and the current price. Time and price are key"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021668503745646831)  2026-02-11T19:31Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Great question. Its based on the physics of releasing potential energy: tension builds as price moves farther from the trend line. Think of Bitcoins deviation from trend value like a stretched rubber band. Z-score = how far price is pulled from trend (stored potential energy). = how tight the band is (mean-reversion speed). OU-like release dynamics: a larger stretch (Z) implies a stronger expected snap-back force while controls how quickly that force decays. Simple steps using Z: Measure stretch Z = (log price log trend) / residual std Get reversion speed = ln(2) / half-life (if half-life ="  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021686427646660755)  2026-02-11T20:43Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Yes Maybe not so much from silver but definitely from a liquidity reset. Liquidity reset: IGV continuing higher BTC holds above gamma-flip Break above call-wall strikes Spot/ETF demand absorbs any sell pressure That combo is the cleaner path to an upside BTC squeeze than silver alone. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021697584159764956 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021697584159764956"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021697584159764956)  2026-02-11T21:27Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@Anyone_here54 @ratellance @grok IGV getting hit by AI only matters for BTC if it changes liquidity. Global liquidity is the main force"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021704227614024145)  2026-02-11T21:53Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements


"@dgt10011 agree People ultimately will prefer money governed by rules not politics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021705879222202508)  2026-02-11T22:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@FaulkDawso76128"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021979429963251807)  2026-02-12T16:07Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Short term is mainly noise the signal is longer term. Power Law: [---] months: $110K Best forward signal horizon: [--] month ($200K) R296% (great fit)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021990202450042900)  2026-02-12T16:50Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Great investors minimize reacting to noise and maximize focus on signal. Nature has it figured out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022071877318193657)  2026-02-12T22:14Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Power-Law fit R [----] Z-score [-----] (deep discount) Now: $66.3K vs fair value $123.4K (gap: -46.3%) Mean-reversion half-life: [---] months ($107K) EOY $160K Strongest predictive horizon: [--] months ($195K) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022198002417643588 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022198002417643588"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022198002417643588)  2026-02-13T06:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@JoshYoung As Ghawar/Safaniya fields mature the water production is rising. Saudi can still produce at $510/bbl its the other government costs that provide the deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022208706243702813)  2026-02-13T07:18Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@aiotcBitcoin ETF flow is key The pin just suppresses price movement. Once released it can go either way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022336747980705824)  2026-02-13T15:47Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@ourelion yes if the R2 dropped to less than 90% it would need to be looked at closely. Right now it's 96% and continues to increase in time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022405845838107131)  2026-02-13T20:21Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Bitcoin: the numbers that matter Most important short term number $68245 (gamma flip) Below $68245 Dealer hedging can reinforce downside. Above $68245 Short-term structure improves. Short-term levels $70000: call wall $65000: put wall (key support) 18.6%: gamma expires Feb [--] (pin-release) Lead signal IGV BTC: p=0.003 2-day lead (liquidity leads price) Power Law: [---] months: $110K Best forward signal horizon: [--] month ($200K) Short term: gamma + liquidity (IGV/HYG) Medium to long term: bullish https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021978065166057792"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021978065166057792)  2026-02-12T16:01Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The mean reversion force increases with an increasing gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022404968800751920)  2026-02-13T20:18Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@Paladin620 Many of these countries are managed by their army. Getting a deal executed is extremely difficult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022826475745865732)  2026-02-15T00:13Z 21.7K followers, [--] engagements


"@yhbryankimiq c only pink triangle with [--] green dot in the right place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/1937965420713263394)  2025-06-25T20:05Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin broke below $70K. Stay calm. History rewards the patient Down 8% today. 46% off ATH. Fear & Greed is pinned at Extreme Fear. Headlines are all bears. The Math: BTC is 45% below power-law trend value ($123K fair value vs $67.7K spot R = [-----] over 15+ years). At [--] months post-halving this is the deepest oversold reading yet in a phase where prior cycles were usually overbought. Z-score: [-----] (statistically cheap) In this oversold regime: 1Y forward win rate: 100% Avg forward return: +100% plus 18-month Z vs forward return correlation: [------] (about 55% of variance explained)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019456617163682017)  2026-02-05T17:02Z 21.7K followers, 89.5K engagements


"Bitcoin at -49% to Trend: Hit Hard Thesis Intact Bitcoin at $62793 is trading 48.8% below its power-law fair trend ($122754) with Z = [-----] (statistically highly discounted). Whats driving price now is not fundamentals failing but flow mechanics: 30d price: -29.5% (fast risk-off unwind) OI: +6.9% (leverage rose into the drop) Paper/spot ratio: +52.2% (to 0.2%) (paper flow gaining influence) Realized vol: 69.8% (liquidation-prone regime) Net GEX: -$35M (near neutral) (no strong dealer pin) Gamma flip: $68937 (key reflexivity pivot) Put wall: $60k (nearest downside magnet/support) Max gamma:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019583262977573040)  2026-02-06T01:25Z 21.7K followers, 41.7K engagements


"This is incorrect. Mining distress usually doesnt end in no buyers. It ends in a transfer. When weak high-cost miners break stronger low-cost operators buy the rigs sites and power deals at discounted prices. Hash rate moves to better balance sheets; it doesnt vanish. Coins sold under pressure get cleared by buyers at lower prices. The common outcome is consolidation not system collapse. Even if with a low probability the price fell to $50K buyers would look at the trend value and MANY would be interested in buying. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019957475467026847"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019957475467026847)  2026-02-07T02:12Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"If Bitcoin goes to $1.5M by [----] entry price matters way less than people think Math $60k $1.5M 43% CAGR $100k $1.5M 35% CAGR $120k $1.5M 33% CAGR Over nearly a decade a [--] difference in entry only changes returns by 10% per year. That surprises people. When the outcome is [----] compounding overwhelms timing. Bitcoin can swing 3050% in a single year arguing over perfect entry inside that noise misses the point. Thats why DCA works. Its not about buying low. Its about staying exposed long enough for the curve to do the work. Deepest insight: The biggest mistake isnt buying too high. Its not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019976347553321372)  2026-02-07T03:27Z 21.7K followers, 245.7K engagements


"The One Number That Matters Right Now: [---] As a trained oil and gas reserves engineer I was taught to watch one ratio: reserves production rate. It tells you how long inventory lasts. Bitcoin is even stricter than a reservoir. In oil and gas higher prices can bring on new drilling and add reserves. In Bitcoin supply is fixed at [--] million. No new discoveries. No reserve revisions. Now apply the same depletion logic: ETF holdings: [---] million BTC New annual issuance: 164K BTC Coverage ratio: [---] (about [--] years of current new supply) Thats why this number matters the most: it compares demand to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021078588603367592)  2026-02-10T04:27Z 21.7K followers, 11.1K engagements


"Bitcoin [--] numbers that matter Price: $67125 Trend value: $123236 Discount: -45.5% Z-score: [-----] (statistically inexpensive) Power-law R: [-----] (great fit) Reversion half-life: [---] months ($107K) Best forward signal horizon: [--] month ($200K) 548d correlation (non-overlap): r = [------] R = [-----] BTC/IGV beta: [---] (BTC 2X IGV R290%) Gamma flip: $67801 (near spot) Fixed supply sets the structure. Liquidity sets the path. Beta sets the magnitude. Structure is intact liquidity is the accelerator and BTC is still trading at a large discount to its long-run trend. Thanks to @martypartymusic on the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021623869916983665)  2026-02-11T16:34Z 21.7K followers, 111.9K engagements


"Low Price High Opportunity (EOY $160K) Spot: $66.3K Power-law fair value: $123.4K Gap: -$57.1K (-46.3%) Z-score: [-----] (oversold) Mean-reversion half-life: [---] months ($107K) Strongest predictive horizon: [--] months ($195K) [--] month signal: r = [-------] R = [------] p = [------] (strong) Most important number: -46.3% discount to trend. Gamma Flip price: $68132 [--] Feb: $63M (20.9%) immediate pin release [--] Feb: $64M (21.2%) second major release wave Combined by Feb 27: $152M (50.5%) Historically large deviations mean-revert. Short term: volatile. Medium/long term: bullish reducing the gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022191290889515428)  2026-02-13T06:09Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Buffett was asked why people dont just copy his strategy. His answer was simple: Because its slow. People want to get rich fast. Wealth is built slowly. The real edge is patience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022342301427937592)  2026-02-13T16:09Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@APompliano After going public it will be good to have them included in the IGV ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022378278884151518)  2026-02-13T18:32Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The Number that Matters Most -44.1% is the number that matters. Bitcoin is trading 44.1% below its long-term power-law trend value one of the deepest discounts in [--] years. That gap is compressed potential. Mean reversion is the highest-probability path. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022402737418494108 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022402737418494108"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022402737418494108)  2026-02-13T20:09Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"BTC and the Environment: The UNs Highest-Leverage Move [---] billion cubic meters of natural gas were flared in [----]. $63 billion of energy burned. [---] million metric tons of CO-equivalent emitted. This is a coordination failure. Convert stranded gas into BTC Revenue instead of pollution Environment wins. Countries build wealth. BTC strengthens. The U.S. can help make it real by pushing the UN to stop issuing reports and start issuing standards. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022437234662924407 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022437234662924407"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022437234662924407)  2026-02-13T22:26Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"I am always amazed to see how much gas is just wasted worldwide. Great opportunity. Top Flaring Countries [----] (billion cubic meters bcm) Russia [--] bcm Iran [--] bcm Iraq [--] bcm Venezuela [--] bcm Algeria [--] bcm Libya [--] bcm Nigeria [--] bcm Mexico [--] bcm https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022437714411520217 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022437714411520217"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022437714411520217)  2026-02-13T22:28Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Basic misunderstanding of gamma pinning Gamma pinning reduces volatility around key strikes. When the pin breaks price can move more freely. That does not set direction. Direction comes from liquidity and flow. A new pin is not the old pin repeating. It resets at new prices strikes and hedge levels. If price keeps re-pinning higher the coil tightens. Then if liquidity is strong (like ETF inflows) a break can accelerate into a gamma squeeze. Pinning sets pressure. Liquidity sets direction. Hopefully this helps https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022812740453277798"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022812740453277798)  2026-02-14T23:18Z 21.7K followers, [--] engagements


"Price leads mining deployment by about [--] month and right now miners are behind price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022820562909712488)  2026-02-14T23:49Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@CeeGix DCA is usually a strong approach. That said everyones financial situation is different so its best to use a plan tailored to your goals risk tolerance and time horizon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023126169613455839)  2026-02-15T20:04Z 21.7K followers, [--] engagements


"@Mimisloth2 the trend value (R296%) very strong it's the magnet that bitcoin price is drawn to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023142286331376078)  2026-02-15T21:08Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Venezuela Just Proved the Bitcoin Bull Case And No One Is Paying Attention Maduro used Tether to move 80% of Venezuela's oil revenue. Billions in sanctions evasion settled on Tron since [----]. Then the US made a phone call. Tether froze the wallets. Game over. Everyone's focused on the arrest. The real story is the lesson every finance minister on earth just learned in real time: Stable coins are a leash not an escape. If someone can freeze it it isn't money. It doesn't solve sovereignty. First principles: USDT is dollar plumbing without SWIFT. Faster. Cheaper. Still has a CEO. Still has a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2010377715963109648)  2026-01-11T15:46Z 21.7K followers, 1.5M engagements


"Why Math Says This Is the Largest Pricing Error in Bitcoin History (105% Implied 12-Month CAGR) Bitcoin is trading at a 35.5% deviation below its 15-year power-law trend. That is not an opinion; it is a statistical displacement the market is currently ignoring. Power-law fair value today: $122425 Spot price: $79K That places Bitcoin firmly in the historical oversold regime (Z-score: 0.63). At this depth price doesnt just "drift" back to trend. It snaps. I back tested every comparable oversold event since [----]. Results over the following [--] months: Win rate: 100% Average return: +100%+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2017828553254166851)  2026-02-01T05:13Z 21.7K followers, 361.3K engagements


"I look at [--] metrics (latest): Paper/spot ratio stable 2.0% (+5% in [--] days) no speculative leverage blow-up OI-price correlation +0.62 (healthy positive) not broken by forced cascades Suppression composite 41/100 (low) paper markets neutral Squeeze probability 34.1% below average forced-vol risk ETF outflows $32B/30d accelerating spot is the primary driver https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019451552306721026 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019451552306721026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019451552306721026)  2026-02-05T16:42Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"This has been my experience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2019598958637789487)  2026-02-06T02:28Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoins Hidden Edge: Hard to Trade but Powerful to Hold People say you cant predict Bitcoin. Thats half true and very bullish. The key metric is the Hurst exponent (H) which measures market memory: H = [---] random walk H [---] persistence (trends tend to continue) H [---] mean reversion (moves tend to fade) Bitcoins rolling 120-day Hurst has ranged from [----] to [----] in my tests. That means the game keeps changing: trend regime chop regime near-random regime. I tested momentum mean-reversion and random strategies across 2000+ days: Momentum hit rate: 5255% Mean reversion: 4548% Random: 50%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2021060559605727296)  2026-02-10T03:16Z 21.7K followers, 15.3K engagements


"Note: [--] Feb: $63M (20.9%) immediate pin release One-fifth of the pin is gone today Price can move freely now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022335368071406036)  2026-02-13T15:41Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"$70K Trigger Level: the numbers that matter Gamma flip price: $70194 (+0.65%) Spot: $69733 Put wall: $65000 (-6.8%) Gamma Expiring: [--] Feb (13.8%): first meaningful reduction in pinning [--] Feb (26.5%): largest single unlock; this is the key date [--] Mar (22.2%): second large unlock that can extend volatility https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022751380319121780 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022751380319121780"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022751380319121780)  2026-02-14T19:14Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The Time Edge: $70K $235K (2028) $2M Scenario (2036) Money rotates to the harder asset. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022760350991683708 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022760350991683708"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022760350991683708)  2026-02-14T19:50Z 21.7K followers, 10.7K engagements


"@dotkrueger @moneyordebt @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC Yep Issue is: Lead versus lag. Price leads. Difficulty lags. Difficulty cant predict price: it updates after miners react to price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022773228989526140)  2026-02-14T20:41Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"STF Issue: Lead vs lag: price (leads) miner profitability hash rate difficulty (lags) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022781712422625749 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022781712422625749"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022781712422625749)  2026-02-14T21:15Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Basic misunderstanding of gamma pinning Gamma pinning reduces volatility around key strikes. When the pin breaks price can move more freely. That does not set direction. Direction comes from liquidity and flow. A new pin is not the old pin repeating. It resets at new prices strikes and hedge levels. If price keeps re-pinning higher the coil tightens. Then if liquidity is strong (like ETF inflows) a break can accelerate into a gamma squeeze. Pinning sets pressure. Liquidity sets direction. Hopefully this helps https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022791053628313772"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022791053628313772)  2026-02-14T21:52Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Price Leads Hash rate by [--] Month Most people treat hashrate as the cause. The data says its mostly the effect. Price sets miner revenue. Revenue drives rig economics. Rig economics drive deployment/shutdown decisions. Hash rate adjusts with a lag. Difficulty adjusts last. Most important number: -12.8% hashrate gap (Actual: 901M TH/s vs price-implied: 1033M TH/s) What that means: This is not price running ahead of infrastructure. Price dropped sharply and hashrate is still absorbing that shock through the lag structure. Key numbers: Price HR lead: [----] days (cross-corr peak r0.196) Best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2022811322988343523)  2026-02-14T23:12Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Single most important number: +$10M Net Dealer Gamma Exposure at spot. Why: +$10M is effectively zero gamma. Zero gamma = no dealer shock absorber. No absorber = flows set direction volatility extends faster. Numbers: Spot: $69010 Gamma Flip: $69660$70651 Max Gamma / Call Wall: $70000 (+1.4%) Put Wall: $65000 (-5.8%) Amplification: 1.02x Squeeze Score: 61% (elevated) Gamma expiring Feb 20: 14.4% (in [--] days) Decision tree: Above $69.6K and accepted: path opens to $70K test. Rejection at $70K + loss of flip: downside can accelerate. When gamma is near zero price can move farther and faster than"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023084172332749113)  2026-02-15T17:17Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@CeeGix Unlikely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023098822084407571)  2026-02-15T18:15Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Liquidity Leads. Bitcoin Amplifies. US M2 YoY is expansionary: +3.9% Best M2BTC lead in this spec: +190d (r=0.288) BTC spot vs power-law trend value: $68956 vs $123554 = -44.2% (discount) Mean-reversion half-life [---] days: 07/2026 @ $112K What BTC is most linked to right now (30D): S&P 500: r=+0.677 HYG credit: r=+0.674 NASDAQ: r=+0.665 IGV software: r=+0.622 (all statistically significant) Lead-lag confirmation (Granger): IGV BTC: 2d (p=0.0035) HYG BTC: 2d (p=0.0055) NASDAQ BTC: 4d (p=0.0128) S&P [---] BTC: 1d (p=0.0178) Most important number now: -44.2% (BTC vs long-run trend R296%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023136126459064679)  2026-02-15T20:43Z 21.7K followers, 14.6K engagements


"@SurfinTheBTC i look at the [--] [--] [---] day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023142712233668943)  2026-02-15T21:09Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks I think Bitcoin may be the most interdisciplinary asset ever created. Disciplines: computer science cryptography mathematics physics statistics economics finance game theory engineering law etc. and behavioral psychology. The power law is definitely the strongest anchor. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023147024267591795 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023147024267591795"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023147024267591795)  2026-02-15T21:26Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Model fit to 15+ years of BTC price history: R = [-----] Price has repeatedly mean-reverted around a stable long-run trend not decayed to zero. Bitcoin is high-volatility yes. Zero-fundamental value The math says no. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023159225766314024 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023159225766314024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023159225766314024)  2026-02-15T22:15Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"BTW The Time Edge: $70K $235K (2028) $2M Scenario (2036) Money rotates to the harder asset. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023159594126811441 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023159594126811441"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023159594126811441)  2026-02-15T22:16Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@elonmusk @Tesla @Tesla_AI FSD has an unexpected perk Zero criticism of your driving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023162560649035880)  2026-02-15T22:28Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"@caueconomy True I am using M2 as a money-supply proxy not global liquidity. Global liquidity is credit + funding conditions + central bank balance sheets; M2 is just one input"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023168451666170138)  2026-02-15T22:52Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Partly yes 20212022: liquidity tightened higher real yields risk assets compressed. BTC fell -77% ( $69K $16K ). 20232026: liquidity only modestly positive (M2 +34% YoY) no flood of capital. Result: recovery not mania. So it wasnt no growth. It was a tighter liquidity regime + leverage reset. The power law is still intact. R296% https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023174248395858165 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023174248395858165"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023174248395858165)  2026-02-15T23:15Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Important to note Strong dollar dominance global dollar liquidity drives BTC cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023178923807474050)  2026-02-15T23:33Z 21.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@willywoo Zoom out. BTC/Gold only broke if one thing is permanently broken: security adoption or liquidity flow. No proof of that yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023267472456183992)  2026-02-16T05:25Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"The real trade is: long scarcity (bitcoin) 100% into gold isn't good advice. Dark times are possible. Positioning wisely. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023270515155296684 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023270515155296684"  
[X Link](https://x.com/david_eng_mba/status/2023270515155296684)  2026-02-16T05:37Z 21.7K followers, [--] engagements

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