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# ![@dampedspring Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1546222940.png) @dampedspring Andy Constan

Andy Constan, a 61-year-old contributor to Twitter, has returned to the platform after a two-week break, reintroducing himself and expressing his enthusiasm for sharing his insights. He has been discussing his views on certain companies, including $MSTR and $DATS, criticizing their business models and suggesting they may be using "desperate leveraging up and shady income generation strategies" to maintain their value. Constan has also been sharing his perspectives on accounting, finance, and market trends.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1546222940/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXXXX +71%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +14%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX%

### Mentions: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1546222940/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX +326%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +9.20%
- X Year XXXXX +34%

### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/followers)
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- X Week XXXXXXX +0.32%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.95%
- X Months XXXXXXX +6.50%
- X Year XXXXXXX +24%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1546222940/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #3606 [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #4858 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  XXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[fed](/topic/fed) #121, [money](/topic/money) 0.62%, [$mtplf](/topic/$mtplf) #16, [debt](/topic/debt) #787, [$mstr](/topic/$mstr) #34, [fdic](/topic/fdic) #14, [long term](/topic/long-term) #130, [ponzi](/topic/ponzi) #18, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #231, [tahiti](/topic/tahiti) #30

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@dannydayan5](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@lynaldencontact](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@secscottbessent](/creator/undefined) [@fejauinc](/creator/undefined) [@aahanprometheus](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@realjimchanos](/creator/undefined) [@agnostoxxx](/creator/undefined) [@bennpeifert](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@txmctrades](/creator/undefined) [@stevemiran](/creator/undefined) [@77augustwest72](/creator/undefined) [@themattseaton](/creator/undefined) [@tim677183515439](/creator/undefined) [@bickerinbrattle](/creator/undefined) [@econstratpb](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)](/topic/$mtplf) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT)](/topic/$ibit) [Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)](/topic/$smlr) [IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)](/topic/$ionq) [BITMINE IMMERSION TECH (BMNR)](/topic/$bmnr) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)](/topic/$crcl) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Hyperliquid (HYPE)](/topic/$hype) [BlackRock Inc (BLK)](/topic/blackrock) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/jpmorgan-chase)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@r33nd3r .92MNAV. Standalone. Being acquired at a price based on current value of 21.05*2.1=44.205 which is a 44.205/28.36-1=55.9% premium to last sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975864873826336854) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T10:04Z 176.4K followers, XXX engagements


"@RPOA99 @SecScottBessent Government spending is decreasing year over year. It's the change not the level that says whether the train is moving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978468227928686603) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T14:29Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"Do you know the impact of leveraged etf rebalancing on days like today and what to do with it for day trading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976733572548686190) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-10T19:36Z 176.6K followers, 48.6K engagements


"I love markets. $MTPLF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978033840489668717) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T09:43Z 176.6K followers, 48.3K engagements


"Fwiw the second half is about genius act compliant stable coins where I learned a thing or two but all had a much lower estimate for usage. $CRCL is down XX% since then and was down XX% soon after airing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978924459844136995) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T20:42Z 176.6K followers, 24.1K engagements


"One would also get a X% coupon generating a XX% return and an excess return over cash of 6.5%. That's pretty good and could be leveraged 2.5x to have the same risk as SPX and generate XXXXX% return. What would that mean mechanically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508673807348182) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 2055 engagements


"Based on many reliable drivers. The major drivers are A)The actions of policymakers to administer the rate B) Investor inflation expectations C) Investor alternative investments that generate a real return. (This is where growth expectations fits in)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508677590560784) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1799 engagements


"Janet knew the power she had and exercised that power when it suited her. Jay Powell was complicit in this power shift and the FOMC has continued to enable the treasury to maintain easy financial conditions TO THIS DAY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280730783334427) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 6336 engagements


"Bessent and Miran are even better at this than Jay and Janet and their incentives are NOT to detox the markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280777889534261) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 16.7K engagements


"So after decades of keeping their clients out of gold financial advisors are going to add gold here Have I got that right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978799363368616189) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T12:25Z 176.6K followers, 74.5K engagements


"Today what one needs and what DampedSpring clients Have or will have. is An assessment of Exposure to NDFI by bank Reserves held by each bank Good collateral assets held by each bank Proportion of bank deposits that are FDIC eligible With that cross section of info"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132882212831344) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Honestly why would anyone buy a Metaplanet preferred at even XX% yield when the MNAV offers a XX% discount. Like just buy the stock bro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979171829131428331) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T13:05Z 176.6K followers, 12.3K engagements


"I have muted the words Taco Blow off top And Bubble They are not useful words for fintwit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979228689201070390) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T16:51Z 176.6K followers, 23.2K engagements


"What BTC Treasury company should $MSTR buy at an MNAV discount using shares as merger consideration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979298495527002298) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T21:28Z 176.6K followers, 14.3K engagements


"What market forces are at play to offset the administers policy I'd break that down into two things. Macroeconomic outcomes which force the "administer" to reverse their path Market participant alternative investments providing better real returns to UST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508686931300632) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1669 engagements


"Firstly working at Bridgewater was by far the best experience in my XX year career. And I left because I could take it anymore. In the weeds 1) your dinner was a screening process (many of your peers didn't get through the dinner) attended many such dinners in the BW role. They want people who are "normal" and brilliant. 2) this "debate" was entirely staged and a key screen used for every candidate. You were being assessed on being able to take a view. Express the view in detail for your reasoning AND then most importantly were pressured heavily to change your view. If you refused to pivot or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979521309546619348) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T12:13Z 176.6K followers, 47.6K engagements


"One of the more interesting developments in the world of deals that make you go Hmmm was $AMD Open AI Open AI is "committing" to buy roughly 100BN of chips from AMD which sounds pretty pretty good for AMD. BUT the price is hard to figure The reason is every time Open AI buys a tranche of chips they are awarded free some warrants with an essentially zero strike which become worth something if the stock hits a threshold price. If the threshold price is never hit before expiry the value of the warrants is zero and AMD sold the chips at full "retail" price. OTOH if the threshold price is hit and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975870019696271806) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T10:24Z 176.6K followers, 53.5K engagements


"I YR return Asset bull cases part X SPX SPX has a trailing earnings yield of X% with expected X year earnings growth of 11.7%. What's the bull case For me the bull case is a combination of simply collecting the earnings accrual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575681924075531) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, 18.6K engagements


"Hey I'm back. Been on self imposed break for two weeks. Let me reintroduce myself I'm Andy Constan and I'm XX years old and have done some stuff and seen some things I love contributing to Twitter and look forward to contributing again I have a naive ideal that Twitter is the public square where people can discuss their ideas and help each other find truth. I left when I realized I was not living up to my own ideal and getting dragged down into the muck. I didnt like who I had become. I was treating others from major content contributors to innocents with less respect than they deserve and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975682794513645633) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-07T22:00Z 176.6K followers, 319.6K engagements


"$MSTR MNAV new lows XXXX $MTPLF MNAV new lows XXXX When these hit XXX the whole BTC DAT flywheel is permanently over. The weekend pump fest didn't work. What are you all gonna try next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975939675446772202) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T15:01Z 176.6K followers, 43.6K engagements


"$MTPLF 1.09"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976265568975257977) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-09T12:36Z 176.6K followers, 14.1K engagements


"Metaplanet has arrived at ETF status. My work on this POS is done $MTPLF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976604454297448749) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-10T11:03Z 176.6K followers, 27.9K engagements


"Today $IONQ did a disgustingly bad new deal for its existing shareholders selling a package of things worth XXX for XX. The investor paid XX per share and got X Share of stock and XXX X year warrants to buy stock struck at XXX That package of things doesnt trade in the public market but using Jan XX XXX calls as a proxy for the Warrant balancing the proxy lower strike with a XXX year shorter maturity prices the deal which was sold at XX at XXX. In other words on the 21.5MN shares sold the company gave the new special investor 946MN of value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976650344538005889) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-10T14:05Z 176.6K followers, 191.1K engagements


"My Parliamentarian mutuals comment please CR inevitably resolves via Dem caving or Nuclear options from Rep. Side effect or possible 3D chess step of nuclear option resolution of CR is clearing the way for Legislative enacting of Trump Tariffs making Supreme Court ruling moot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977397556482085133) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-12T15:34Z 176.6K followers, 24.4K engagements


"When does one buy this $HYPD that everyone was Hyping at XX Figure XXX ish. By then all the suckers will be liquidated. The longs need to buy their GI Joe with the kungfu grip. You can hear them panicking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977739211840028925) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T14:12Z 176.6K followers, 57.1K engagements


"A return to the Islands Most narratives lean on heading to T.A.H.I.T.I. (The references is from MCU series Agents of Shield. "It's a magical place) Tahiti is the island we go to if the run it hot narrative is correct. Debasement Cove is the destination if the yield curve is manipulated Run it Hot Point is the destination if the bond market is allowed to sell off. Gold and BTC are money on one side of Tahiti and USD on the other side. The next client Dampedspring report will detail the "Narrative Islands""  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977775863442600418) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T16:38Z 176.6K followers, 65.2K engagements


"For anyone who had significant experience at major institutions including hedge funds and asset managers. Have you ever had a buy order of impactful size that you decided to crazy Ivan and sell some to confuse market participants Resulting in having to buy what you wanted originally plus your crazy Ivan sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977834748354425175) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T20:32Z 176.6K followers, 147.8K engagements


"The Fed bears only partial responsibility to the muting of QT. QT impact is two fold reducing reserves HAS occurred. Though not much and mostly just reduced pseudo reserves in the form or RRP reduction to zero. BUT by far the biggest impact of QT is the forcing of the private"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280726823940134) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 7655 engagements


"Sector to absorb duration. As written in my DSR of 3/14/2022 before QT had even formally been announced I described how choosing runoff vs outright sales when implementing QT was handing monetary policy to the treasury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280728816169030) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 6706 engagements


"The fed is also responsible for its reinvestment policy which as the OP (and many of my reports shows has resulted in long term treasuries accumulating by 200BN when we have been told the balance sheet has been shrinking. We haven't been lied to. This was obvious X years ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280737288716472) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 5260 engagements


"It's occurred in the bright light of weekly data. I had many conversations with fed staff about this. My DSRs are sent to the fed by request. I had great hope after the January Fed minutes that they would act and at least correct the reinvestment program. See the whole impact here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280739205529794) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 5200 engagements


"Not only that I had made concrete recommendations for the Fed to seize control of monetary policy as far back as XX months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280745127846037) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 4908 engagements


"The full report from 7/28/2024 is here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280748072177728) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 4492 engagements


"The big deal though is the Fed simply enabled the ongoing monetary policy by the treasury with its reinvestment policy. How you may ask Every quarter the treasury show us the ongoing grift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280753759666233) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 4544 engagements


"Notice the ironically gold colored line. It shows that the treasury weighted average maturity of its total debt is at a fairly long level. Implying that the treasury has done a good job "terming out the debt""  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280760856482133) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 4160 engagements


"But it's a lie. Because the Fed has bought long dated treasuries the private sector didn't have to. The blue line represents the private sector owned WAM which shows that the private sector hold very little WAM relative to what's been issued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280762941067616) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 4087 engagements


"We all know this is true as buried in the linked reports we know that private sector coupon auctions have remained fixed and beginning the moment QT started Janet issued half of all private sector purchased debt in bills. She could and did (and the current treasury secretary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280764685922307) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 3982 engagements


"To the private sector. That would mean a substantial increase in auction sizes of coupon treasuries. Fwiw those auction sizes need to go up a lot anyway and so because we increase debt 2TN per year but this reinvestment policy shift would significantly compound the issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280770083954958) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 3637 engagements


"Fwiw the fucking dentist joke by Powell today was just too much. XX% of the FOMC and the chair either doesn't understand monetary policy or simply is too afraid of the bond market. Instead they avoid the pain of understanding. Or intentionally grift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978286067959668970) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:25Z 176.6K followers, 14.8K engagements


"Like most days the last X months the winds are blowing to debasement cove. Added the AI miracle pays off soon yellow star to this chart. The DSR on what to do about this is a banger and will be released to clients later today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978411545500475799) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T10:44Z 176.6K followers, 38.5K engagements


"Why do I ever buy puts. Jeez"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978467803456843822) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T14:27Z 176.6K followers, 97.7K engagements


"Just two more left $BMNR $MSTR MNAV XXX tractor beam"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978768885521228069) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T10:24Z 176.6K followers, 13.8K engagements


"Fwiw I've never seen my "all assets" signal want zero assets in its history. Any one asset may be fine and dandy but the long beta portfolio of stocks bonds gold commodities and tips is the worst I've ever seen in backtest. My rule is to never have less that XX% assets and XX% cash and am at that level now but my system wants close to zero. Rules are rules but it is unusual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978843999436738981) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T15:22Z 176.6K followers, 119.4K engagements


"Just recorded a good conversation with @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Pleasure talking Jason. I'm told it should drop on Sunday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978914737694834917) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T20:03Z 176.6K followers, 21.8K engagements


"Since recording this podcast where I declares $MSTR and $MTPLF ponzi adjacent $IBIT which I like is down X% $MSTR is down XX% $MTPLF is down XX% MSTR is now at XXXX MNAV so still has XX% more to fall before it's worth looking at. Is MSTR a Ponzi Lyn Alden & Andy Constan via @YouTube"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978917573799432482) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T20:14Z 176.6K followers, 102.2K engagements


"$MTPLF 3350 down a swift 10%. .85MNAV. It's getting there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978988788949955008) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T00:57Z 176.6K followers, 49.6K engagements


"As those who trade discounted CEF well understand when a CEF (like BTCTC) trade at a discount the shareholders are fucked. They have to take a huge mark down to get out. The fund can fix the problem really easily by selling the asset (BTC) and repurchasing the shares. BUT THEY WONT do the right thing. Because they lose their fund and its AUM. They can't raise money to repurchase shares without pledging in a secured way their precious assets. The MNAV discount never goes away until activists own enough share (and can vote and win) to dissolve the fund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978991853320978904) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T01:10Z 176.6K followers, 34.4K engagements


"$MTPLF. This is fucking hilarious The best part is the anchoring. @gerovich anchors the preferred dividend at 6%. He doesn't even graph the possibility of over 10%. There is no preferred demand for this company below XX% Furthermore with zero access to ATM the only way he pays the preferred dividend is to Issue more preferred literally the definition of ponzi Just give up dude. Increasing bitcoin per share was ONLY possible by convincing people that MNAV could be sustainable above XXX. Thats OVER"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979106043746509178) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T08:43Z 176.6K followers, 28.3K engagements


"Wordle 1581 4/6* 🟨🟩 🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979112407621390501) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T09:09Z 176.6K followers, 9837 engagements


"Solvency/Liquidity/bank reserves XXX I see we are all focused on $kre again. Let's review how banks get in trouble. By far the most important one is they become insolvent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132844652797992) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 33.9K engagements


"An insolvent company has negative equity. Its assets are worth less than its debt. For a bank the largest debtor is the depositor but other debtors exist as well. Banks risk insolvency due to higher leverage of their equity relative to any other non financial company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132846313808352) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2917 engagements


"Insolvent banks are a huge problem of course. But insolvent companies of any sort don't go bankrupt. Bankruptcy occurs when a bank must pay off its debt and doesn't have access to money to pay off its debt. So let's move to liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132854484238715) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2637 engagements


"But probably will run. First is HQLA. That includes vault cash (literally paper bills and coins) bank reserves on deposit with Fed which are like a banks own deposits which they can demand at any time and Tbills and a myriad of weedy things which share the common attribute"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132865553060170) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2040 engagements


"The discount window and standing repo facility (SRF) provide unlimited lending of cash on a secured basis to banks in need So far these programs have not been tapped. But the rate is attractive and should prevent a 2019 funding crisis. If infact there is a liquidity crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132873702519270) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1688 engagements


"One can assess each banks Solvency liquidity and bank run risk. At the macro level this situation is way way less of a problem than the tempest in the teacup banking crisis in 2023 and don't even think of comparing it to the GFC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132883898925168) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 9818 engagements


"Slight north west drift since writing this. Mostly we are still trolling narrative bay but priced as if we are certain to arrive on Tahiti. "It's a wonderful place""  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979283836019093839) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T20:30Z 176.6K followers, 18.1K engagements


"One of DS Data's clients wanted to understand a cross section of Regional Banks. Size Exposure to NDFI loans and scarcity of reserves as SOFR has gotten a little spikey. WAL stood out to us the most. Large Exposed and with few reserves. DS Data answers question like these every day. Incredible Bargain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979285196110278829) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T20:35Z 176.6K followers, 26.3K engagements


"I YR return Asset bull cases part 1a XX Year notes XX year notes yield X% today. What's the bull case Let's talk about an unusually good absolute return that would happen X in X times this year meaning 1STD or more. That would be a X% price rise Along with a X% price move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508671949537588) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 24.7K engagements


"A X% price move would require X year yields which are roughly XXXX% to be XXXX A year from now. The bull case for bonds depends on whether the odds of XXXX% yields occuring is 1:6. If the odds are higher the bonds are a buy if lower then bonds are a sell. Bond yields change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508675820544222) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1990 engagements


"A) policymakers have various levers to administer the XX year rate to their desired level. The most well known and understood lever is the Fed funds rate and other policymaker controlled rates like SOFR and IORB. Other ways policymakers "control" the XX year rate include but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508679452832009) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1688 engagements


"Are not limited to. Forward guidance on the short term rate mentioned above bank regulations which either encourage or discourage banks from buying UST the composition of treasury bonds issued and those held by policymakers active purchasing or limiting of issuance of various"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508681541660723) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1723 engagements


"The Fed. This is similar but more general. Dont fight the administer. So let's say the bull case is the policymakers are intent on administering the XX year rate down by 73bp this year. Forget HOW just assume all else equal they can and want to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508685102620875) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1529 engagements


"Both of these are market participants selling bonds or buying less bonds. Chicken is bond investors moving toward cash because they expect the policymakers will be forced by higher inflation which will put political pressure on the policymakers to reverse. "Fuck this" is bond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508712806183302) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1153 engagements


""Fuck this" is another name for the debasement trade. It's clearly happening in size Chicken is a bit tougher. Most bond holders are bearish the economy. They are paid to be so. Their investors own bond funds BECAUSE they want diversification in a slowdown/recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508716735955365) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1136 engagements


"@Realgrids Most are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979532303274545358) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T12:57Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"and having the multiple expand slightly. In that case a XX% return would occur which is roughly X std higher and happens X out of X timer. The big driver of equity returns is the accrual of earnings. Over the last X years earnings accrual has dominated historic returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575685019492572) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, 1263 engagements


"Multiples are also impacted by various other forms of what I refer to as risk premium which P/E's expand when money is easy and risk is low and contract when money is tight and risk is high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575692661604546) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, 1032 engagements


"Which gives the bullish framework to be bullish equities one needs to believe X. Earnings will accrue as expected X. Earnings accrual expectations will rise X. Risk premiums will contract /PE's expand All three matter but the long term tailwind is # 1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575694977012167) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The trailing XX months have delivered earnings accrual growth of XXXX% YoY Quite a tailwind Analysts project a similar earnings accrual growth of XXXX% for the next twelve months. Which is quite a tailwind as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575697581502609) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"A year from now if things just sort of go as expected stocks should earn XX% based on no change in multiple and current earnings yield and growth. Pretty sweet bull case basic tailwind for sure. Earnings multiples are pretty elevated though. While there are many factors at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575699481509909) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Play assuming earnings deliver as expected multiples would have to contract by XX% for equity price returns to simply match cash. Current trailing multiple is 25x which is pretty elevated but it would have to fall to roughly XX to match cash if earnings deliver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575701692125260) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The bull case is pretty easy. Ride the expected earnings accrual tailwind. OTOH realized earnings growth has been very strong for the last X years. Which makes me wonder if the tailwind will deliver or not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575704577871895) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"3. Monetary conditions that were not able to tighten as every tempest in a teacup or downward blip in the market was met with rapid emergency easing by policymakers X. AI spending and consumption The bull case assumes all of these things will remain true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575708423802962) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Private sector leverage is very low (though claims on future Leveraging up to fund AI capex are ginourmous and built into earnings) so it's possible that a leveraging up by corporations and consumers can generate late cycle profit growth. The fiscal side is a headwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575717382979678) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, 2580 engagements


"@madelksta The trailing p/e of the SPX XXX is 6664/264=25.242"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979579100839759994) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T16:03Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"In a pure Bitcoin world with no fiat. What is the interest rate one would pay in order to borrow BTC Please for the love of god don't tell me the USD rate. This question is for POST USD borrowing and lending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1946658808689832334) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-07-19T19:50Z 176.5K followers, 159.3K engagements


"Market makers rinse the $QYLD shareholders again as usual. Tomorrow they get rinsed again this time in the selling window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1956085289706750000) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-08-14T20:07Z 176.5K followers, 14.9K engagements


"$BMNR This disgusting transaction which according to the filing was with a single investor WAS potentially nothing like what @fundstrat says it was. It was a sale of 5.2MN shares at a discount to XXXXX which could be potentially as large as XX% but conservatively XX% or less than $XX per share. Depending on the value of the warrants that were part of the package. It was a sweet heart deal to a single investor and showed NO confidence in BMNR and did not evidence any strong institutional demand for the shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1970274876406600018) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-09-22T23:51Z 176.5K followers, 49.6K engagements


"On the bull side of trash DATs I love $SMLR vs every other liquid dat and IBIT itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1971226837490728991) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-09-25T14:54Z 176.5K followers, 11.3K engagements


"Still hate all DAT companies trading above MNAV. They will attempt desperate leveraging up and shady "income generation" strategies to maintain their "flywheel". But to no avail. They are at best leveraged ETF's and at worse MNAV premium ponzi's Really sorta like $SMLR tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975861986585129133) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T09:53Z 176.6K followers, 12.4K engagements


"Anyone have a story on swap spreads My intuition is it's related to JPY weakness but haven't dug in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975886678133985448) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T11:31Z 176.5K followers, 52K engagements


"@coryklippsten I think they all are fine and dandy. I think the prices can get too high and too low For instance ANY DAT over XXX MNAV is a short and MSTR is still a short (but not as good as it was when I pounded the table) at XXXX I happen to like $SMLR at .9 MNAV quite a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976370360540139607) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-09T19:33Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@DerivativesDon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976776181048656003) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-10T22:25Z 176.5K followers, 5867 engagements


"Ugh. Typo $HYPE when meant $HYPD. Now I understand the hate. My bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977742560312389820) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T14:25Z 176.5K followers, 15K engagements


"It's great to see $IONQ up on its achievements in its business but it is pretty odd that they sold 2BN of equity for XX that was worth XXX then to a single investor despite likely knowing the "good news". The single investor is up XXXX% since the deal while the rest of the shareholders are up 12%. Pretty fish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977796332367814872) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T17:59Z 176.5K followers, 63.1K engagements


"Tape bomb incoming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977812238171095419) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T19:02Z 176.5K followers, 44.3K engagements


"It is a reference from marvel comic universe show "Agents of Shield" every time the main character heard the word Tahiti he was programmed to say "It's a magical place". Which seems fitting for my purposes. It was an acronym of Terrestrialized Alien Host Intergrative Tissue #1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977830631317913749) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T20:15Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"This is my favorite sort of tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978162328639008895) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T18:13Z 176.5K followers, 67.9K engagements


"The debasement trade is bullish all financial assets but particularly bullish stocks and gold. It's also bearish whichever currency is the strongest debaser. Fwiw the best metric of the debasement trade is something like equal dollars U.S. TIPS Stocks and Gold denominated in EUR or JPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978182250991693895) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T19:32Z 176.6K followers, 7154 engagements


"@Chartfest1 @lighthousejerry But 32oz's in bulk every 5-10 years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978197917371396429) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T20:35Z 176.5K followers, 1088 engagements


"If a DAT trades at MNAV and doesn't want to lever or can't why should it build its stack The BTC per share doesn't change so what's the incentive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978206676000923649) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T21:09Z 176.5K followers, 13.4K engagements


"Aggressively increase coupon auction sizes immediately. The interest rate on the coupon suite of issuance is below 4%. Lock in term out and chill My greatest fear is in a crisis we can't use the bills market when we need to. Even if it pushed curve 50bp steeper (it wont) that's like XXX multiples points or XX% stock decline. MBS probably don't even move much and spreads just contract"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978410186172715213) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T10:38Z 176.5K followers, 1360 engagements


"@McclartyPhilip @BlacklionCTA Not to put words in Brent's mouth but I think he and most other Tahiti islanders believe that the Trump administration MUST win the midterms and will pump without any signs of slowdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978434828560138246) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T12:16Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@SecScottBessent just correctly said that the 2025 Fiscal deficit was lower than 2024. It was by $8BN. Deficit to GDP fell to XXX% from 6.26%. Two questions X. For the nothing stops this train fiscal dominance crowd has the train stopped It clearly has in fact. X. XXX% is a long way from XXX target. Why have we not heard about that Are we drilling baby Is a X% deficit to GDP even possible How about a X% real gdp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978442392492454086) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T12:46Z 176.5K followers, 2821 engagements


"@DougCli13776839 Those are down too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978468449220218999) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T14:30Z 176.5K followers, 1889 engagements


"@Dr_Twatter Don't comment on positioning here any more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978542264495341692) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T19:23Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon As mentioned. It's either a currency or a collectible. It's not a productive asset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978782775160328330) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T11:19Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon I don't understand I am fine with a party going on. It's neither fortunate nor unfortunate. I think all you are tweeting this morning is number go up so why bother doing any work on understanding anything sort of tweets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978786990045737314) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T11:35Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@Taylor_stxBTC No need to do it with either gold or BTC dopey mcdopeface"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978788515044372957) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T11:42Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"That's a market participants view of an asset A real persons view is beanie babies bitcoin and even gold are not assets they are worthless collectibles with no practical purpose Assets are thing that are heavy and hard to move or ideas that are productive and protected by law or one's ability to work and produce. Money is not an asset but savings are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978829700353937576) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T14:25Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@AahanPrometheus yay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978884409127289181) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T18:03Z 176.5K followers, 1091 engagements


"The Japanese investor is not "yield starved". A preferred is in no way whatsoever comparable to short term bills and deposits despite what you are being fed in propaganda by the $STRC crew The preferred market is comparable to equities or very long term debt and those yields are high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979125436639531414) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:00Z 176.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@Sunfollower360 @gerovich Buying and HODLINg BTC is what the entire corporate mission of these companies IS. Start a company with a different mission if you want but don't expect to succeed getting funding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979193544511295524) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T14:31Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Macro_Geoecon @c0nfus3dk0ala Mid curve tips only"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979197788949717374) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T14:48Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@sasachk Why have staff AI replaces options trading desks no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1975877653346574515) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-08T10:55Z 176.6K followers, 1190 engagements


"Fwiw I model it using a Merton style capital structure model MSTR stock is a long call on BTC struck at the value of the debt. The debt is short that call The asset is currently worth 85BN and the debt face amount is roughly 8BN so the equity is a deep deep in the money call on BTC at roughly 11600. Because the stock is a call it "should be price" at a MNAV premium. However that MNAV premium is nowhere close to XXXX. Much closer to XXXX than 1.38"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976333229570523155) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-09T17:05Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Wordle 1575 4/6* 🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976939762758959479) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-11T09:15Z 176.6K followers, 11.3K engagements


"@aleski_ar Only the MNAV premium and the need to raise money to pay preferred dividends is a Ponzi scheme Hence Ponzi adjacent With no leverage and no nav premium NO Ponzi. But also those things are called CEF or ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978940089641124343) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T21:44Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@RoopDhillonMD This what"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978950592266399935) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T22:26Z 176.6K followers, 1000 engagements


"@BickerinBrattle I agree. There is NO fiscal or monetary policy except a full reversal of tariffs and immigration restrictions that will offset a down XX% stock market. But the stock market is in a confidence game atm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978951467043045613) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T22:29Z 176.6K followers, 7253 engagements


"@DumbMacroMan Ah. Debasement cove is where the Fed does YCC or Treasury Reduces coupon auction sizes to manipulate the long end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979289289168163163) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T20:51Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@JoeHuxley666 @bonanza2025 If it has a XXX ish MNAV then. It will be super difficult for SPglobal to inform its largest paying customer Blackrock that they have chosen $MSTR ETF instead of Blackrock $IBIT ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976266371341091120) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-09T12:39Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This comparison (like the one comparing p/e) will one day be evidence in a fraud trial. Comparing $MSFT USD treasury holdings which represents XXX% of its assets to $MSTR BTC "Treasury" which is XXX% of its assets is deceptive and designed to pump the stock. A court will one day rule on it as fraudulent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1976283501704974528) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-09T13:47Z 176.6K followers, 38.2K engagements


"Fwiw on $JPM announcement today I would call this a marketing currying favor and setting the internal lending preferences for the corporate bankers ploy. The equity financing is 10BN over XX years or 1BN per year. Needless to say that's literally nothing. As to the 1.5TN of lending it should be mentioned that JPM did 1.8TN of things that would qualify in this category just last year. I imagine but haven't dug into it that of the 1.8TN done last year at least 150BN was in categories like the one he made today's commitment to. So pretty much any projection of existing book of business would"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1977843231929823338) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-13T21:05Z 176.6K followers, 50.3K engagements


"Visible to all. It "should" be visible to all already but somehow no one seems to care. Here's the big deal. IF the Fed finally stops enabling the treasury grift by stopping buying coupons greater than X year the treasury will HAVE to sell those bonds not bought be the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280768280342612) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 3926 engagements


"Janet Yellen is long gone. Jay Powell says talking about the balance sheet is worse than going to the dentist. OF COURSE it Is. Truth is painful. He and @scottbessent701 are likely to agree to NOT change the reinvestment plan continuing the grift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280771941970268) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 3592 engagements


"Wordle 1580 4/6* 🟩 🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978754292954607726) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T09:26Z 176.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"BTC/XAU ratio. It's certainly interesting. But one thing for sure. BTC is NOT digital gold yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978772580057190797) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T10:38Z 176.6K followers, 19K engagements


"@JesseKobernick @gcarl55 Yep. Stock rips if they pay the 49m imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978940215524819119) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T21:44Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Asset markets particularly gold obviously stocks but even bonds are trading as if the "FED Put" strike is not down XX% but up 5%. We've had minor crises in October of XX SVB in April of 2023 and October of XX that preceded Fed action. And obviously a major crisis forced fiscal to taco. Before COVID Xmas 2018 and fall 2019 as well BUT it would be a new thing if policymakers acted to bailout markets without even a hint of a selloff. Markets expect this behavior. The Fed Put is 7000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978948129451053278) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T22:16Z 176.6K followers, 24.6K engagements


"@grassosteve He's wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978966687119556924) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T23:30Z 176.6K followers, 1847 engagements


"Individual banks unlike almost every other form of company on earth are subject to bank runs. Their debtors can demand payment instantly. Of course long term debtors have no such ability but depositors can and do run at a drop of a hat. Thats were the FDIC steps in. By"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132856354984349) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2450 engagements


"guaranteeing small and medium deposits and implicitly doing the same for all depositors the FDIC reduces the necessity for a depositor to run from an insolvent bank. But while an insolvent bank is a legitimate problem which almost always leads to bankruptcy a solvent bank can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132858401689858) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2291 engagements


"Still have a bank run. Despite the banks solvency and the fdic backing depositors have infinite alternatives and practically zero frictions to run. So they do. This creates a liquidity crisis which is best defined as a bank forced to spend its cash and sell its High Quality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132860238827640) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2187 engagements


"Liquid assets (HQLA) to pay off its fleeing depositors. When they run out of HQLA they have to raise money by borrowing against other assets or selling assets or equity. But once out of HQLA the bank experiencing a run is fucked. The time it takes and the price they get for fire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132861857853471) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2108 engagements


"Sales of other assets or equity can drive an otherwise solvent company into insolvency which is much less easy to correct. So let's walk though the ways banks can pay off a bank run recognizing that depositors "shouldn't run" due to fdic guarantee from a solvent bank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132863837556865) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 2079 engagements


"Of being able to be converted to cash instantly with no or practically no market risk The next way to fund a bank run is to borrow unsecured in from another bank. Back in the day the interbank market was robust and unsecured borrowing could happen at relatively low spreads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132867142709356) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1939 engagements


"Many banks borrowed unsecured and the other banks were left holding the bag the unsecured market essentially closed. But secured funding remains robust. So to the extent a bank needs money and has assets which are good collateral (typically longer term treasuries and MBS)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132870489673791) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1746 engagements


"They can raise cash to meet a run by borrowing secured from another bank. Recent upward pressure on SOFR above the Fed funds bands suggest some banks are borrowing from others in higher volume and with modestly more enthusiasm than normal. The next lender to banks is the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132872167465374) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1715 engagements


"We should see sofr stay elevat at or slightly above the fed funds target range and scores of billions of take up of the SRF program. Realistically those are the only financing options that exist to meet a bank run driven (liquidity crisis) Selling asset selling equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132875317428713) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1678 engagements


"Every bank looks at its business mix and client base and decides how much reserves to hold. Some banks have very active clients making sizable transactions every day and keep a bunch of reserves on hand. Other have sleepy clients who don't transact and that bank can hold less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979132880379940955) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T10:30Z 176.6K followers, 1639 engagements


"I think the FDIC guarantee needs reworking and me and Bob had an extensive back and forth about that in 2023 during SVB. The regulators promised to address it and of course nothing has happened The facts haven't changed and the 250K max is still the "law" The perception hasn't changed in decades that the maximum is effectively infinite in practice. That's the status quo and I don't like it I don't like the minimum because small and medium business that have paychecks to cut and working capital fluctuations to spend and receive via inventory and sales "Should" have no doubt about their deposit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979162996711600229) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T12:30Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Sunfollower360 @gerovich If the puts go in the money how do you pay back the debt Sell more debt is a ponzi. Earn on the assets is fake and selling assets is unacceptable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979191653337276807) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T14:23Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@DumbMacroMan Tahiti narrative is literally what people think the Trump Admin is driving us. Higher stock prices lower short term rates strong growth and employment strong gold and crypto markets weak dollar all for the specific reason of winning the midterms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979286909202432229) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T20:42Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This is well worth reading and Alex is a must follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978092398417784923) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-14T13:35Z 176.6K followers, 96.9K engagements


"This chart Should not be new to anyone that has my work since 2022. @SteveMiran used and credited my work to write his paper on ATI which probably helped him get the Fed Governor Gig😅.I have presented my work to many Fed staffers and senior treasury officials many times. BUT 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280722197631401) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 172.3K engagements


"Scott Bessent continues to control the monetary impact of quantitative tightening as we speak. The impact has been hugely beneficial to asset holders (the wealthiest amongst us) and has come at the expenses of this without assets who have lived with almost X years of above"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280732733685958) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 5891 engagements


"Target inflation which shows literally zero signs of returning to target in the coming year or even two. The Fed is responsible for the original sin of choosing runoff over outright assets sales. But the treasury even to this day is the one responsible for the monetary impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978280734721740936) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.6K followers, 5489 engagements


"The dentist joke from Powell yesterday threw me over the edge. The balance sheet IS monetary policy. The FOMC (ex Logan Waller Schmid Hammack Musalem and Miran) need to floss more. Bessent needs to act"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978404804893310998) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-15T10:17Z 176.6K followers, 32.4K engagements


"SOFR above the top end of the fed range is unlikely sustainable. But a few bp over XXXX could persist if interbank secured lending and borrowing is tight AND no one wants to use the DW or SRF Makes me wonder how much reserves borrowing demand there really is (I suspect not much) and if I'm wrong why banks don't want to borrow from the Fed programs. At XXXX for a few weeks I'd be less confident that the SRF solves the 2019 problem. But I'm pretty sure it does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1978939668809843013) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-16T21:42Z 176.6K followers, 24.1K engagements


"@brkcap Financed how"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979319780109881725) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-17T22:53Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Investors saying if growth and inflation are going to be not only tolerated but encouraged why own fixed income at all. Sure they will rally because the administered rate is going down but jeez if it does. US stocks foreign assets denominated in USD gold will all do great"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979508715033100346) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:23Z 176.6K followers, 1155 engagements


"Admiration continuing to manipulate the rate lower AND that rate not being low enough and recession island is the outcome. NOT an obvious trade and frankly going long bonds to bet on a recession outcome seems the worst priced way to do this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979517309913083922) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T11:57Z 176.6K followers, 8866 engagements


"As long as companies continue to grow earnings they will go up over the long term. Multiples rise and fall and as can be seen in the chart can dominate performance of equities in the short term. Furthermore multiples are impacted by interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575686667936176) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 176.6K followers, 2487 engagements


"In plain fact the X and 2) deficit level is high but it's change is negative and that is what matters to earning growth so that's a headwind which makes the expected earnings growth vulnerable 3) inflation is NOT dead yet and monetary conditions need to ease more than priced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575710256910771) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements


"to profits. That can change with a stroke of the Supreme courts pen I guess but current policy is a headwind of equities. Nonetheless even earnings growth of half of expectations is a pretty sweet tailwind for equities which all else equal would still outperform cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979575719920590937) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T15:50Z 176.6K followers, 2543 engagements


"Well as a relative value trader for XX years prior and as a relative value hedge fund founder PM and CIO and a macro investor for the last XX years I guess I would say it's been a life long journey As most of the time unleveraged long SPX beats everything I have ever done about XX% of my life I have had to explain to investors that at equal risk pure alpha strategies generate better long term returns that SPX due to a superior sharpe ratio. While also explaining in any short to medium time frame pure alpha is uncorrelated to SPX and a portfolio of long both at equal risk is Far far superior"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1979589392059486456) [@dampedspring](/creator/x/dampedspring) 2025-10-18T16:44Z 176.6K followers, XXX engagements