# ![@dampedspring Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1546222940.png) @dampedspring Andy Constan

Andy Constan, a market expert, has returned to Twitter after a two-week break, reintroducing himself and expressing his enthusiasm to contribute to the platform again. He has been sharing his insights on various market topics, including balance sheet expansions, the impact of quantitative tightening (QT), and his views on specific stocks and assets. Constan has also been engaging with other users, offering his perspectives and challenging certain views, showcasing his expertise and experience in the financial markets.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/interactions)
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### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/posts_active)
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### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/followers)
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### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1546222940/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #3228 [stocks](/list/stocks)  #1812 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #640 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  7.85% [currencies](/list/currencies)  4.1% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  3.41% [countries](/list/countries)  1.71% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.37% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  #99 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.68%

**Social topic influence**
[$mstr](/topic/$mstr) #4, [if you](/topic/if-you) 6.14%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) #384, [money](/topic/money) #5214, [what is](/topic/what-is) 4.1%, [investment](/topic/investment) #395, [trade](/topic/trade) 3.75%, [bullish](/topic/bullish) 3.41%, [business](/topic/business) #1386, [future](/topic/future) 3.07%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@lynaldencontact](/creator/undefined) [@subtleinduction](/creator/undefined) [@flippyfloppy52](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@langua52266](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) [@jayarlington](/creator/undefined) [@gordonnr](/creator/undefined) [@superdaveozie](/creator/undefined) [@crayhunter37839](/creator/undefined) [@jessebabies](/creator/undefined) [@kurtbauerle](/creator/undefined) [@allbullnobear8](/creator/undefined) [@scrappyabs](/creator/undefined) [@organizationtao](/creator/undefined) [@bullfornow1960](/creator/undefined) [@jc_chronister](/creator/undefined) [@william_r2rclub](/creator/undefined) [@crinklebine](/creator/undefined) [@dr_gingerballs](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT)](/topic/$ibit) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Ondas Holdings Inc. Common Stock (ONDS)](/topic/$onds) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)](/topic/$mtplf) [IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)](/topic/$ionq) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [EAGLE POINT CREDIT COMPANY INC. (ECC)](/topic/$ecc)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Current active convert arbs followers. Been a minute since I did an exchange offering with a company for my convert long. $STX is doing one based on today's price. Is the share amount delivered equal to the delta of the arb or is the share amount the conversion ratio and there's some fun and games around the settlement https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021973630045888567 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021973630045888567"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021973630045888567)  2026-02-12T15:44Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Genuine question. Today we seem to have confidence that our tech overlords are supremely capable in every endeavor. Does anyone have a single example of any tech company in history making a large and successful shift from capital light to capital intensive. In the 1990's capital intensive business fucked this up but at least had a track record. Why do we think those with no track record at all are going to be successful stewards of capital investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022678244307161483)  2026-02-14T14:24Z 217.9K followers, 20.9K engagements


"The goal of all investors is simple. We want to maximize the risk adjusted return of our investments in the currency we expect to spend in the future. As Americans we want to maximize our USD returns If we are Japanese we want to maximize our Yen returns Etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666687888384460)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Capital Light business models are ones where ideas and IP are the value proposition. They are the ones vulnerable to AI disruption. Capital intensive business models where factories and bricks and morter and blue collar jobs not easily replacable by robots have a wide and deep moat from AI disruptions. BUT they will struggle because the biggest companies in the world are transitioning from Capital Light to Capital Intensive and sucking any investment dollars need by non AI capital intensive businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022674224003825689)  2026-02-14T14:08Z 217.9K followers, 39.6K engagements


"Even in a magical world where every business is above average without meaningful money and credit growth you can fund growth in MANY businesses BUT you can't fund growth in ALL businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023017142304883014)  2026-02-15T12:50Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"BlackBerry had all the advantages of today's SaaS megacaps. My first iPhone was the iPhone [--]. The unseen iceberg blackberry had took [--] years from the first IPhone to hollow out. And of course there were some epic rallies along the way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023019896855199762)  2026-02-15T13:01Z 217.9K followers, 13.3K engagements


"Cash on the sidelines [---] Today news articles are reporting that Money Market Mutual Fund assets have grown to over 7TN That is a fact. The problem is those who interpret this "cash on the sidelines" as a bullish (or bearish but that's never said) signal because it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1857433676058853545)  2024-11-15T14:41Z 217.9K followers, 720.8K engagements


"What is the fair price (fee to the provider) to pay for $1BN of equity capital if you are a high growth company with great prospects and a strong stock price and are raising 16% of market cap. 0-10% 10-20% More cuz opportunity 20-30% 0-10% 10-20% More cuz opportunity 20-30%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2010038066376032339)  2026-01-10T17:16Z 215.4K followers, 10.7K engagements


"Have you heard the term "don't be a dick for a tick" DSPrivate was. We called the tax loss harvesting and bid the close on 12/31. Today with $MTPLF trading at [----] MNAV and $MSTR expanding MNAV to [----] and $IBIT looking incredible as a long digital gold catch up to gold silver I definetly won't be short anything in this complex outright https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011398680801145063 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011398680801145063"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2011398680801145063)  2026-01-14T11:23Z 217.6K followers, 17.8K engagements


"Devaluing the dollar in a meaningful and sustainable way means Foreign Policymakers agree to higher real rates and US lowers real rates US Fed balance sheet increases private sector banks forced to lever up deficit grows and all the money is encouraged to buy foreign assets and imports Foreign investment in US assets is penalized via foreign investor taxes and closing markets to foreign investment (capital controls) Foreigners are banned from buying U.S. goods and services and prevented from travel to the U.S. All these things done at once would devalue the dollar. Otherwise it's artificial."  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2015029215578472538)  2026-01-24T11:49Z 216.4K followers, 25.1K engagements


"Interventionist in chief doing some violence to $HUM and $UNH. "Free the Market" #MarketIndependence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2016159774597959990)  2026-01-27T14:42Z 215.5K followers, 10.6K engagements


"A convenient way for a U.S. etf only investor to exit USD cash is to buy a ROW short duration bond ETF. $BWZ is an example that we use for such situations. I'm sure there are others. As a short term bond fund it's not meant to change in price much. But it is long ROW short term "treasuries" so it's exposed to USD weakness https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016261847943676178 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016261847943676178"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2016261847943676178)  2026-01-27T21:27Z 217.5K followers, 20.8K engagements


"Let's do the math $MTPLF Each "unit" is [--] shares of stock and .66. [--] year warrant. At [--] vol that warrant is worth 40% of spot. The buyer "overpays" for the [--] share by 5% and is compensated for that by getting .66 free warrants worth of .66*40=26.4% That means the unit which is sold at a 5% premium is worth 21.4% more than they got in proceeds. In other words the unit was sold at a 1- 1/1.214= 17.6% discount This is a substantially better deal than the atrocious deals done by $IONQ twice $ONDS twice and $BMNR once. It's still pretty damn expensive but it's not awful. I expect the buyer will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2016848826082988113)  2026-01-29T12:20Z 217.5K followers, 58.7K engagements


"Are you going to change your positioning due to the New Fed Chair If so what trade and why I'm not changing my view at all fwiw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017213079457526238)  2026-01-30T12:27Z 214.8K followers, 27.7K engagements


"The forced selling is now over. The $AGQ etf has deleveraged. Only selling left is those outright long on margin getting called. Otherwise Rippy Rippy $SLV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017308952766144820)  2026-01-30T18:48Z 216.5K followers, 241.7K engagements


"-26%. $ONDS you're welcome. One day I'll buy this thing but that day is not today. $ONDS down 24% since the atrocious deal they did. I get interested in the long side below [--] and don't care higher. You're welcome. $ONDS down 24% since the atrocious deal they did. I get interested in the long side below [--] and don't care higher. You're welcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017343205591708139)  2026-01-30T21:04Z 214.9K followers, 20K engagements


"NAV of $AGC fell 60% or 3BN in AUM assuming no redemptions (with redemptions it could be more). That reduces negative gamma in the silver futures market a meaningful amount Imagine vol term structure flattens quite a bit next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017350698329899320)  2026-01-30T21:34Z 214.8K followers, 15.3K engagements


"267k followers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017388796145229959)  2026-01-31T00:05Z 214.8K followers, 258.4K engagements


"A bank fails every [--] weeks in the U.S. and it's very common and they are almost always very small like the one you mentioned which was immediately acquired by another small bank and the FDIC provided 20MN which is teensy. Plus it was well known for months and concluded today. It also had nothing to do with the events of today or silver or gold. You responded with a naive and irrelevant piece of information fwiw. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017413421508022614 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017413421508022614"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017413421508022614)  2026-01-31T01:43Z 217.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Yeah deeply flawed work by Dudley. Ignores the runoff was financed with bills and RRP I guarantee if the Fed sold its duration and MBS portfolio at market and bought bills. Financial assets would crater financial conditions would tighten and the economy would slow. QT was muted by Treasury and has yet to actually happen https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640549612703877 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640549612703877"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017640549612703877)  2026-01-31T16:46Z 214.9K followers, [----] engagements


"69420 bid if you need liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017656144152416378)  2026-01-31T17:48Z 215.4K followers, 33.8K engagements


"Can someone credible explain the reason that $MSTR average acquisition cost matters at all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017665412565971442)  2026-01-31T18:24Z 216.2K followers, 99.6K engagements


"While corrected in comments this is now being reposted by huge accounts. This guy should know better given his "expert in ETF's" role. $SLV Nav is calced on the London Futures close and the "discount" is entirely a timing issue. Terrrible tweet from someone who should know better and should be deleted $SLV closed at a 19% discount to NAV last night by far biggest ever. Insane week. I havent seen anything this wild in the metal world since I watched VH1s Behind the Music on Motley Crew. https://t.co/k82RcBIyWG $SLV closed at a 19% discount to NAV last night by far biggest ever. Insane week. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017775808434049025)  2026-02-01T01:43Z 216.9K followers, 54.9K engagements


"Writing a new DSR "A note to Kevin". Started out with the prior Fed failed. But have they Since peak recorded YoY Core CPI it's been [---] years. On the same scale as Volcker peak it seems to have taken the same time and yet volcker needed a recession. Who wore it better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017937880207798497)  2026-02-01T12:27Z 215.3K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Assuming no change in MNAV $MSTR should trade [---] vs current BTC price fwiw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018103501214089220)  2026-02-01T23:25Z 215.3K followers, 22.4K engagements


"I see trading the changes in sell side firms restricted list is suddenly something children think is new and insightful $SNDK. Nothing new under the sun kiddies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018666895927582898)  2026-02-03T12:44Z 216.8K followers, 13.5K engagements


"$141 bid $ORCL Mr Valentine has set the price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018705125783511116)  2026-02-03T15:16Z 216.2K followers, 28.3K engagements


"@DavidMilliken Is that new. They filed on 2/1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018801817422033237)  2026-02-03T21:40Z 216.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Sentiment doesnt change until markets change. Equity Sentiment remains massively bullish. Don't confuse loud voices on twitter with sentiment. If you want to see a big change in sentiment wait for a 10-15% move in either direction. Otherwise its all noise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018817825192943923)  2026-02-03T22:44Z 216.4K followers, 19.5K engagements


"Don't have a dog in this fight. But given Fed policy has influenced the two year for [--] years. How do you know the [--] year will work if it was the rule. Do people with this view go back to how a pre Fed pre cb two year note works or do they just use post CB two year rates and just muck up the analysis with circular logic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019022936112320661)  2026-02-04T12:19Z 217.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Define trouble That sort of loose language is what makes answering the question difficult. If you define trouble as forced liquidation of BTC holdings that is much much lower and dependent on when it happens Specifically until the 9/15/2027 put date of the 9/15/2028 convert there is zero potential for a forced liquidation of BTC holdings and BTC would have to be 15K or lower to result in a bankruptcy and court order liquidation Other forms of "trouble" could be inability to pay preferred dividends which for the moment they have 2+ years of cash to pay and continue to issue equity and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019038500033634534)  2026-02-04T13:21Z 217.7K followers, 27.9K engagements


"@KurtBauerle Ah. Yeah but the whole preferred structure is about the same. That said it's a thing that is short 30% strike BTC puts and nothing more. Not good value imho relative to short puts on BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019057134311231622)  2026-02-04T14:35Z 216.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Single digit price now and down 28.7%. Since I posted that this guy did a horrible financing deal for his shareholders paying a hedge fund an absurd amount of money for $1BN of financing at the expense of existing shareholders $ONDS I love the old hacks coming out to take swipes at us. Money shufflers vs Business builders Everyone is welcome to their opinion. https://t.co/YKpJxVu4IV I love the old hacks coming out to take swipes at us. Money shufflers vs Business builders Everyone is welcome to their opinion. https://t.co/YKpJxVu4IV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019072859448955211)  2026-02-04T15:37Z 216.1K followers, 42.7K engagements


"Still bid 69420"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019081073703948637)  2026-02-04T16:10Z 216.7K followers, 146.9K engagements


"If you bought $STRC for the [-----] annualized return just [--] weeks ago at par you've accrued 11.25*2/52=0.433 in dividends and lost 100-97.28=2.72 in principal marked to market. Thats a 2.72-.43=2.29 loss or 2.29%. Annualize them apples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019109635773673876)  2026-02-04T18:03Z 216.8K followers, 18.8K engagements


"Spy realized vol is still negative carry to vix from front contract vix from yesterday. Not a directional call but this is absolutely nothing move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019111946818060342)  2026-02-04T18:12Z 214.9K followers, 17.7K engagements


"My only orders today were really pretty funny Bids for $IBIT $ONDS and $ORCL What a list. ND on each"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019153587675471984)  2026-02-04T20:58Z 217.6K followers, 44.9K engagements


"Massive guide on Capex $GOOG. They are gonna have to end share repurchase and issue debt in size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019155422507114680)  2026-02-04T21:05Z 216.9K followers, 20K engagements


"$GOOG share repurchse 9BN below street expectations - not mine tho. Lol. End of share repurchase era folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019157416919888196)  2026-02-04T21:13Z 216.9K followers, 25.2K engagements


"Capex needs funding ORCL did a much smaller capex over the past year and caused its stock to halve and its corporate bonds to increase in spread to treasuries by 100bp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019171310103122337)  2026-02-04T22:08Z 215.4K followers, 17.6K engagements


"@allbullnobear8 They are great companies. I trust them. That said they need to fund the investment and cutting share repurchases isn't theoretical it's a fact. Perhaps you think share repurchase doesn't matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019173459339731342)  2026-02-04T22:17Z 214.8K followers, [---] engagements


"2026 is shaping up to be the year of net supply of shares. Reducing share repurchase is estimated here and wildcard which could take us to the first time of net supply since 1H [----] is IPO's. XAi and OpenAi at low floats get us almost to net supply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019352504082075786)  2026-02-05T10:08Z 215.4K followers, 26.6K engagements


"Today $MSTR will report a Q4 GAAP accounting loss of $17BN. One of the largest losses in corporate history. Based on current spot my projected loss for Q1 is $12.8BN. Last summer this Ponzi scheme operator tried to compare P/E's of his Ponzi investment vehicle to the broad market and great companies this was deceptive and potentially fraudulent. Will they do it again in the earnings release or nah https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019374056944857594 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019374056944857594"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019374056944857594)  2026-02-05T11:34Z 216.9K followers, 79.9K engagements


"A hedge fund focused on growth companies has done [--] equity and warrant purchases over the past year. 1BN $IONQ 7/7 down 36% 365MN $BMNR 9/17 down 70% 425MN $ONDS 10/7 down 4% 2BN $IONQ 10/10 down 55% 1BN $ONDS 1/7 down 31% If these guys held the shares they would be down 2BN on an investment of just under [---] Bn. But they didn't and sold all their shares and shorted the stocks and hedged warrants they got and are likely up 2Bn. They appear to be the worst stock pickers in history but they aren't. They just sold their bags rapidly to sucker shareholders and monetized their investment."  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019383111256027315)  2026-02-05T12:10Z 217.1K followers, 20.1K engagements


"Filled on first lot of $IBIT 1/10 in. Still bid [-----] https://t.co/95OigvC6Re Still bid [-----] https://t.co/95OigvC6Re"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019385368597131289)  2026-02-05T12:19Z 216.5K followers, 15.7K engagements


"How do you do fellow kids. I am in now with a small position that will unlikely grow. I will get great pleasure if BTC goes to zero and I lose this investment and will make a bit of money of it bounces. Win win Please do not follow me as my reasoning is perverse and folks bet way too much in this space. Here is my view While I bought a degen piece of $IBIT today I am NOT including any of my BTC trading in any of my DS portfolios at all. I am NOT convinced of BTC or crypto more broadly as an investable asset class. My reasoning has been and continues to be that as a store of value digital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019388425866973570)  2026-02-05T12:31Z 215.1K followers, 47.3K engagements


"@mcchiperson77 Stable coins are fine for that and enable unbanked emerging markets participants and criminals to transact without having USD volatility so the answer to your question is Mostly no narrow case yes and absolutely no need for it to be BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019399453556535710)  2026-02-05T13:15Z 217K followers, [---] engagements


"Bought my $IBIT. Not bidding for $ONDS or $ORCL My only orders today were really pretty funny Bids for $IBIT $ONDS and $ORCL What a list. ND on each My only orders today were really pretty funny Bids for $IBIT $ONDS and $ORCL What a list. ND on each"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019415143013314965)  2026-02-05T14:17Z 216.5K followers, 33K engagements


"Guess he didn't wait to Halbierung Semi short oil long unwind For you wolf fans HalBleiter HalBierung For you wolf fans HalBleiter HalBierung"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019423314863878238)  2026-02-05T14:50Z 215.2K followers, 15K engagements


"I mean why don't you just call it what it is and have the cap expire on Election Day US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has talked about a 1-Yr cap on card rates. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has talked about a 1-Yr cap on card rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019443088788255194)  2026-02-05T16:08Z 217.4K followers, 20.2K engagements


"You know what was a really bad trade Going long $EL for the son in law trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019472243399479714)  2026-02-05T18:04Z 217.4K followers, 13.7K engagements


"850MN of forced selling wrapping up at 1:25 $SLV $AGQ. Degen long here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019476596487291276)  2026-02-05T18:21Z 216.2K followers, 42.8K engagements


"I can't believe I'm saying this and it's also just a fair value calculation NOT where this crazy thing should trade BUT Using a Merton framework $MSTR is a call on BTC struck at its debt notional or roughly [-----]. That call now deserves a 4% premium. So "fair value MNAV" is now 1.04x. Should expand as BTC falls (it wont) should contract as the stock rises. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019483329255600172 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019483329255600172"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019483329255600172)  2026-02-05T18:48Z 217.6K followers, 33.5K engagements


"Not only has $MSTR f*cked up BTC but it's levered ETF's "Amplify" the f*ck up On the close today [----] whole Coins equivalent will be forced sold in the form of MSTR shares into the market to rebalance the leveraged ETF's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019488969864486917)  2026-02-05T19:11Z 217.6K followers, 44.5K engagements


"@AndreasSteno How do they raise money Have they been sitting out in cash or are they using leverage all of a sudden"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019502823726018634)  2026-02-05T20:06Z 216.9K followers, 15.2K engagements


"Long $MSTR [-----] for a flip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019513045244924255)  2026-02-05T20:46Z 215.3K followers, 33.8K engagements


"May I have an extra 50BN hamburgers that I will gladly pay for on Tuesday. $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019519029032153569)  2026-02-05T21:10Z 216.1K followers, 12K engagements


"@christiaanhtznr My estimate is for Q1 current and went up by 3BN of losses Today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019519456935047335)  2026-02-05T21:12Z 216.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@fejau_inc Feel free to clip or forward this report which laid out this thesis and that we explored on our forward guidance in January https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/A-Hamburger-Today.pdf https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/A-Hamburger-Today.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019523408829071658)  2026-02-05T21:27Z 215.1K followers, 10K engagements


"In November we outlined what had to happen to fuel the economic growth priced into markets and what it means. Enjoy free. https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/A-Hamburger-Today.pdf https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/A-Hamburger-Today.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019523776237453644)  2026-02-05T21:29Z 216.2K followers, 15.6K engagements


"Jesus just ask them how they will pay the dividends and what yield are they willing to pay for the Strc. What happens to the company at a negative MNAV and unacceptable dividend yields required for issuance. You know every question I asked in August. Basically the same question you asked last time but demand and actual answer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019527002378690670)  2026-02-05T21:42Z 214.7K followers, 15.2K engagements


"@RhoRider The current one is now 15BN for q1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019539862962204934)  2026-02-05T22:33Z 215.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Wordle [----] 3/6* 🟩🟨 🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019746750114812185)  2026-02-06T12:15Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Spent a lot of time here in the 80's. Anybody recognize it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019749727080685939)  2026-02-06T12:27Z 216.1K followers, 19.6K engagements


"Wow. You should all read this. I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019754836846105036)  2026-02-06T12:47Z 216.1K followers, 70.8K engagements


"Cue all the Furus who were fully invested at the top but claim they bought the dip with made up DCA and other cash that didn't exist for their victory lap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019785077484302369)  2026-02-06T14:47Z 216.2K followers, 14.7K engagements


"Just for fun and lunch money ESH short 6915"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019808684424249635)  2026-02-06T16:21Z 216.2K followers, 13.1K engagements


"EOD MSTR IBIT rebalance setting up to be epic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019834920617549882)  2026-02-06T18:05Z 217.5K followers, 22.4K engagements


"@lord_fed Still hope that Trump does drops a tape bomb. With the Olympics and the Super Bowl he may need to shift the conversation back to him like every other weekend but otherwise zzzz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019850254502490356)  2026-02-06T19:06Z 214.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Is there any active market participant on the planet that doesn't know that the capex spend is going to be absolutely huge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019863658038276477)  2026-02-06T19:59Z 217.6K followers, 24.9K engagements


"Current market wide equity ETF rebalancing is roughly 18BN to buy. The basically flat market for the last hour or so has been frontrunning and prepositioning for this buy. That said 18BN is fairly unusually large"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019864975229980955)  2026-02-06T20:05Z 217.8K followers, 38K engagements


"I have no strong opinion and haven't had one because it doesn't matter to me for trading markets. The spend the financing of the spend has very very clear impacts. Betting that it's garbage or betting that it's AGI is equally useful and equally dangerous to one's investments. If you are right what change would you make or for that matter what change have you already made to your investment portfolio https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019884732117389403 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019884732117389403"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019884732117389403)  2026-02-06T21:23Z 214.8K followers, [----] engagements


"So do I have this right. naive 80/20 level synthesis $Goog. Cloud renter to others. In house AI for profit. Search getting disrupted $MSFT Cloud renter to others. Ownership stake in pure play AI CO's second tier in house Ai renter of AI for product suite product suite getting disrupted $AMZN. Cloud Renter to others no AI at all huge dominant retailer ad model within retailer disrupted $META. Social Media Cloud resources only for them second tier Ai in house ad model dependent perhaps some ad model disruption Open Ai Anthropic XAi pure play Ai."  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019922513573105749)  2026-02-06T23:53Z 217.3K followers, 41.7K engagements


"As a new bitcoiner is the bull case [--]. Limited supply results in gains as fiat currency is printed in excess of what is necessary to support the economy (store of value) [--]. Use as a medium of exchange for real world transactions [--]. Way for emerging market and other unbanked people to hold something besides their local currency It seems to me [--] is true of a lot of things and moves in fads [--]. Seems awful for this purpose relative to other forms both fiat and stable. [--] seems literally fully replaced by stable coins. Whats the value proposition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020154576393867733)  2026-02-07T15:15Z 215.1K followers, [----] engagements


"As a new bitcoiner is the bull case [--]. Limited supply results in gains as fiat currency is printed in excess of what is necessary to support the economy (store of value) [--]. Use as a medium of exchange for real world transactions [--]. Way for emerging market and other unbanked people to hold something besides their local currency It seems to me [--] is true of a lot of things and moves in fads [--]. Seems awful for this purpose relative to other forms both fiat and stable. [--] seems literally fully replaced by stable coins. Whats the value proposition https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020155984258236893"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020155984258236893)  2026-02-07T15:21Z 217K followers, 65.7K engagements


"@langua52266 Except gold works reliably to the thing you want. BTC at least the last [--] years when all you wanted was gold you got nothing from BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020156506193203678)  2026-02-07T15:23Z 215.2K followers, [---] engagements


"@DerivativesDon Looking to short $MSTR as a hedge on a rip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020157692329767212)  2026-02-07T15:28Z 215.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@LynAldenContact Seems worse for each of the things so the combo is strictly worse it would seem than holding the individuals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020158082735608255)  2026-02-07T15:29Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@LynAldenContact Okay it's a correlation diversification of two things that make it better than a combo of two things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020159299897393267)  2026-02-07T15:34Z 215.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@SecScottBessent @POTUS @TrumpAccounts Bid up existing owners stocks with government debt and fill children with bid up stocks and future taxes to pay to finance the debt. It's a choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020194414493331529)  2026-02-07T17:54Z 215.3K followers, 14.7K engagements


"Think about this idea. It's pretty simple. The idea is to by government action force all owners of stocks to swap some of their stocks for US Government Bonds such that some other cohort could own stocks but also the aggregate private sector would have more future taxes to pay due to debt No obvious expected NPV benefit for society at large. No NEW stock for society at large to own. Just a risk transfer and a wealth transfer. Then think about market impact. The new accounts bid up the stocks to encourage the old holders to accept the swap of stock for debt. Good for those who own stocks today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020228034402627936)  2026-02-07T20:07Z 216.8K followers, 43.7K engagements


"I've known Adam for many years now. Even visited his team down in Grand Cayman and did a podcast with him. He is and always has been a must follow professional Perhaps the most influence he has had on me is he was an early adopter (1Q 2023) of LLM's for summarizing investment research. Anyway I disagree with Grok and value his contribution on Twitter. You should follow him too. 20k is criminally low. My only unsolicited advice for you Adam is to go back to creating more of your own content which is always great and do less retweeting of others. Even mine Asked Grok to review my tweets and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020235355916489107)  2026-02-07T20:36Z 216.2K followers, 44.8K engagements


"Donation is a special case. Obviously charity is a wealth transfer and wonderful. The form of the charity has to be carefully considered But the math is the same. Micheal Dell gives 6.25BN to 12MN newborns or $520 each. He could give stock or cash. The newborns get the charity and that's great If he gives stock and that is a charitable donation of low basis stock the government gets lower tax revenue from him than they would have which means it "borrows to fund the wealth transfer. Micheal gets out of stocks at elevated prices without having to sell in the market and instead jams it into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020236994081616266)  2026-02-07T20:43Z 216.8K followers, [---] engagements


"@CashWithDara Also 3BN ain't going to do shit about intergeneratiobal problems. It's just a gimmick"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020237252396200157)  2026-02-07T20:44Z 217.4K followers, [---] engagements


"I can tell you my personal view. A $15MN float at [--] is useless A 1BN float at [--] is useless A 10Bn float at [---] is worth thinking about From practical experience the introduction of inflation link bonds took 5-10 years to become mainstream and the early years were massive outperformance vs nominals I consider the track record prior to Late [----] to be completely irrelevant https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020246647251329180 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020246647251329180"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020246647251329180)  2026-02-07T21:21Z 217.1K followers, [---] engagements


"@Hookgrass All good things. Also $5000 is not going to make much of a different. Life changing wealth transfers maybe. This is a gimmick. The goal of improving financial literacy is a good one. Not sure this will have much impact but maybe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020262051537453473)  2026-02-07T22:23Z 215.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@swedishsamu Or simply not issue more debt Or tax wealth today Or reduce the deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020283651314053288)  2026-02-07T23:48Z 215.3K followers, [---] engagements


"I have read his book and disagree with his thesis and he is a strong proponent of America First policy which values manufacturing jobs because it plays with MAGA base He knows more about trade than I do but I can still see his purely political bias. You seem unable which is very typical of blind biased folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020314805039399271)  2026-02-08T01:52Z 215.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Giving some substantial credit to Lighthizers work and also why he is no longer part of the administration is his pro union stance. That stance which is critical to making manufacturing jobs "better" is NOT supported by MAGA today and hence my view on current manufacturing jobs are not Lighthizer jobs. Unfortunately "GOOD" manufacturing jobs mean strong unions And thus uncompetitive costs. Globally competitive manufacturing jobs are NO union jobs and NOT Better jobs https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020319677109461356 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020319677109461356"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020319677109461356)  2026-02-08T02:12Z 215.3K followers, [---] engagements


"It's a fun day when this world class grifter responds to one of my posts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020453496621814072)  2026-02-08T11:03Z 216.2K followers, 23.9K engagements


"@GenZeroSum @yieldsearcher Very specific. This clip of Jim Cramer "hearing" that the government bought the lows in BTC is not credible in that he is making it up and/or propagating hearsay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020464572205859327)  2026-02-08T11:47Z 216.2K followers, [---] engagements


"Update. Seller at [-----]. Will probably short $MSTR if that BTC price is available AND MNAV expands to [----] and hold the arb $IBIT. Still bid [-----] https://t.co/95OigvC6Re Still bid [-----] https://t.co/95OigvC6Re"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020465664067072268)  2026-02-08T11:52Z 217.6K followers, 30.3K engagements


"Is taking stocks from rich people and giving them government bonds and giving those stocks to babies and loading the whole of society with more debt to pay back good or bad or it doesn't matter much Good Bad Meh Good Bad Meh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020506369842205035)  2026-02-08T14:33Z 216.2K followers, 30.8K engagements


"@ChrisGrobbel They have it already. But there is a legitimate case for Trump accounts as a tool for improvement in financial literacy but seems massively ineffecient as the gross majority of the babies and the babies parents won't engage in that educational opportunitu imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020512377993626015)  2026-02-08T14:57Z 216.2K followers, [---] engagements


"New Post on the Blog Site. Link in comments. "Trump Accounts and related ideas" - some musings. My blog will always be free do not pay even if it tries to get you to. But please subcribe. Go Pats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020578985101656517)  2026-02-08T19:22Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@dan_rios83 @josephwang Amen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020685534042181820)  2026-02-09T02:25Z 216.3K followers, [---] engagements


"GOOG benchmark offering GOOG benchmark offering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020843013833171313)  2026-02-09T12:51Z 216.8K followers, 20.2K engagements


"Indicated Price Talk on. This $GOOG offering looks like a steal vs existing curve. Duration is building a concession for the calendar and big auctions and fintwit is focused on Bad Bunny 🤦🏻♂and engagement baiting politically divisive tweets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020845731238838563)  2026-02-09T13:02Z 217.3K followers, 49.4K engagements


"$MSTR up to [----] MNAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020904355168227777)  2026-02-09T16:55Z 217.8K followers, 15.4K engagements


"This morning I mentioned the huge concession in price talk on the GOOG corporate offering. This afternoon Twitter is abuzz at the 7x over subscription. You look like rookies. When IPT is stupid cheap there is infinite subscriptions and if it was through on the runs there would have been zero interest. You are a rookie if you measure anything with syndicate over/undersubscription Indicated Price Talk on. This $GOOG offering looks like a steal vs existing curve. Duration is building a concession for the calendar and big auctions and fintwit is focused on Bad Bunny 🤦🏻♂and engagement baiting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020979828858683492)  2026-02-09T21:55Z 217K followers, 29.1K engagements


"@sidprabhu Right. Not exactly the same. Didn't say exactly. And it's precisely why it's useful for those with 50+ year liabilities. But the hey who all may be dead in [---] years nonsense is practically identical to [--] year bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020987618242990547)  2026-02-09T22:26Z 216.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Would be big. Fwiw he means earnings growth not GDP and just gets confused and is somewhat prone to exaggeration in case you haven't noticed. Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of. Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020992459732594751)  2026-02-09T22:45Z 216.6K followers, 16K engagements


"People laughing about [---] year bonds while overweight assets with no coupon and no maturity at all makes me laugh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020996408103285162)  2026-02-09T23:01Z 216.9K followers, 22K engagements


"A corporate bond is a claim on businesses future a stock is a claim on a businesses future. If you think a business is going to cease to exist in [--] years. Why do you think buying equity at a low earnings yield is good and buying a [--] year or longer corporate bond is stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021172597862343160)  2026-02-10T10:41Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@Ivan_Yuri_Rd Yes Does that mean corporate bonds are stupid and equities are great IF you beleive companies cease to exist in [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021173504234684790)  2026-02-10T10:44Z 216.2K followers, [---] engagements


"A corporate bond is a claim on businesses future a stock is a claim on a businesses future. IF you think a business is going to cease to exist in [--] years why do you think buying equity at a low earnings yield is good and buying a [--] year or longer corporate bond is stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021174764241334726)  2026-02-10T10:49Z 217.6K followers, 10K engagements


"@allbullnobear8 All markets discount. Equities are just as smart as others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021187419144331778)  2026-02-10T11:40Z 216.1K followers, [---] engagements


"I signed up to CFOsilvia larping as my [--] year old mother. I asked the basic question of "what is a good portfolio". It took [--] minutes to deliver a 5% better than any other robo advisor I have tested in the past. Claude did equally well in [--] seconds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021188308710084677)  2026-02-10T11:43Z 217.5K followers, 21.6K engagements


"When this guy is providing myth busting you know that the Furus circulating the clip as current are truly the lowest of the lowest. If you are following someone circulating this as current it's a perfect screen to unfollow This clip is circulating everywhere. No President Trump did not say he made a mistake on his nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. This clip has been taken out of context. He is referring to his appointment of Fed Chair Powell in [----] because his "Treasury Secretary https://t.co/bH0CPoPx9b This clip is circulating everywhere. No President Trump did not say he made a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021189793464414664)  2026-02-10T11:49Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"When this guy is providing myth busting you know that the Furus circulating the clip as referring to his recent Warsh decision are truly the lowest of the lowest. If you are following someone circulating this as a current mistake about Warsh it's a perfect screen to unfollow This clip is circulating everywhere. No President Trump did not say he made a mistake on his nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. This clip has been taken out of context. He is referring to his appointment of Fed Chair Powell in [----] because his "Treasury Secretary https://t.co/bH0CPoPx9b This clip is circulating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021193015222485409)  2026-02-10T12:02Z 217.4K followers, 15.7K engagements


"The total size of the GOOG deal in GBP including the much maligned [---] year bond is 4.5BN and at the initial price talk will be "irrelevant"X oversubscribed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021193793450418337)  2026-02-10T12:05Z 216.5K followers, 12.7K engagements


"@macropotamus We can't. The consumption tax paid by our corporations and citizens is necessary to fund the otherwise 6% deficit or else the bonds or the USD or both dive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021194271294931321)  2026-02-10T12:07Z 216.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@Citrini7 Ford Motorola JC Penny Disney are all successes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021199731381477583)  2026-02-10T12:29Z 216.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@jeromeloman That's a feature when inflation is falling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021201303528214579)  2026-02-10T12:35Z 216.2K followers, [---] engagements


"Even if the first time you heard my year long "Get Out" thesis was during this podcast you have done well. VEA has beaten SPY by 400bp IGOV+WIP have beaten TLT+TIP by 150bp The secular trend of reducing massively overweight USD holdings has years to run https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/monetary-matters-with-jack-farley/id1769093906i=1000746207246 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/monetary-matters-with-jack-farley/id1769093906i=1000746207246"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021208762925600923)  2026-02-10T13:04Z 217.4K followers, 14.4K engagements


"Dumbest trade so far. Had ORCL nailed. Muffed it Bought my $IBIT. Not bidding for $ONDS or $ORCL Bought my $IBIT. Not bidding for $ONDS or $ORCL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021260175764586507)  2026-02-10T16:29Z 216.5K followers, 14.4K engagements


"Of all the "financial markets and economy" things Trump says this is the one that eats at my core more than any other. A great economy with strong real growth should have higher interest rates than an old dying empire or country whose glory is behind it. Trump: The US should have the lowest interest rates in the world. Trump: The US should have the lowest interest rates in the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021367421118910684)  2026-02-10T23:35Z 217.3K followers, 34.1K engagements


"Respectfully if the fed didn't exist interest rates in growing countries would be higher than in countries that are not growing. The simple reality is if someone wants to borrow they have to convince someone to lend. If lenders see growth they would rather lend via an equity investment because they participate in growth. So to convince them to lend fixed rate interest rates have to rise. Your understanding of basic economic concepts seems distracted by some idea that the Fed sets interest rates https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021376551044964543"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021376551044964543)  2026-02-11T00:11Z 216.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@JayArlington Let's not change the subject. Do you better understand my tweet and the misunderstanding the supreme leader had about rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021380405933527374)  2026-02-11T00:26Z 216.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Wordle [----] 5/6* 🟨🟨 🟨🟩 🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021541770333499417)  2026-02-11T11:08Z 217K followers, [----] engagements


"Just Read Brad instead of headlines when capital flows are the topic. Simple synthesis for the non wonk. If exports grow and the currency appreciation pressure is unacceptable to the Chinese state. The Chinese state will buy USD assets and do a good job hiding it in its vassals Bloomberg reports that China's regulators have warned China's state banks about the risk of holding too many Treasuries -- The Chinese regulators must know something that the Treasury doesn't as the Treasury data doesn't suggest that China has been buying any Treasuries 1/ https://t.co/t0bvFnXLfv Bloomberg reports that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021550008018059531)  2026-02-11T11:40Z 217.8K followers, 26.4K engagements


"If AI delivers on its promise it will be the true litmus test for "merit". Some high percentile of society will be deemed unworthy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021562058253512860)  2026-02-11T12:28Z 217.3K followers, 12.4K engagements


"@Fomaphobic I know all three personally and the last two well and still don't understand your point. Make one or STFU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021572608014082372)  2026-02-11T13:10Z 216.7K followers, [---] engagements


"@Dr_Gingerballs 100%. I read it as a marketing device to get more $20 subscriptions and used the word "IF". I then followed up with another tweet that was a counterpoint"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021587169777709145)  2026-02-11T14:08Z 216.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Yep DS sold $QQQ calls on the open. Should have red day memed it for the rest of you. Sorry about that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021603446932062276)  2026-02-11T15:13Z 217.8K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Do you follow people who guess economic data If they nailed this number (very few did). Were they patting themselves on the back Were they bullish on the open Guessing economic data has virtually no edge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021607453268262927)  2026-02-11T15:29Z 217.4K followers, 11.2K engagements


"Until the Fed addresses its stupid AF and against its claimed balance sheet goals reinvestment policy NO progress on balance sheet shrinkage or duration management will occur. They just put 11.9BN more [--] years they don't need or want "allegedly" on their balance sheet because some old bonds matured. Fed bids for 10-year notes total $11.9 bln. Fed bids for 10-year notes total $11.9 bln"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021642757815566621)  2026-02-11T17:49Z 217.8K followers, 25.5K engagements


"Keep it simple for everyone. IF you want to shrink the balance sheet and move toward bills WHY are you still reinvesting runoff proceeds in notes that will be on the balance sheet for [--] years Fed bids for 10-year notes total $11.9 bln. Fed bids for 10-year notes total $11.9 bln"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021647706989768768)  2026-02-11T18:09Z 217.8K followers, 20.1K engagements


"@KnifeMackthe Hey. Totally get wanting to stimulate but don't gas light me with balance sheet policy rhetoric"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021649968570962264)  2026-02-11T18:18Z 216.8K followers, [---] engagements


"@RayDalio My entire experience at Bridgewater which was the greatest professional experience of my career was tarnished by your handling of Eileen's Lies. What is your reflection on your handling of that case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021715529388495250)  2026-02-11T22:38Z 216.1K followers, [---] engagements


"@TXMCtrades Is that Adam with him"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021922885103648865)  2026-02-12T12:22Z 217.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@michaellebowitz @TradersCom Sure. All that's possible. As to knowing with certainty what is happening one needs to see the trade tickets and inventory which is not available. However like all flow analysis one can do a decent job modeling it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022291925424865775)  2026-02-13T12:49Z 217.7K followers, [---] engagements


"@Richard_Casey @scrappyabs Not my lane tbh. But that is all true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022297940442697818)  2026-02-13T13:12Z 217.6K followers, [---] engagements


"This is a chart of SPY vs a USD denominated etf $VEA that holds foreign DM stocks (has exposure to both the local stocks and FX) Do you see any reason whatsoever that the relationship between spy and USD returns on foreign stock are mean reverting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022631427792044440)  2026-02-14T11:18Z 217.5K followers, 19.9K engagements


"Not sure your question. The dividend has been heavily marketed by the company as a "WIN" because of this return of capital treatment. IF they return "20 years at 11.25% you make a sizable return in a nice tax advantaged way. Of course the "Capital" comes from the common shareholder so thats a thing to think about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022679233818951766)  2026-02-14T14:28Z 217.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Capital group the literal only discretionary (non passive index tracking) large institutional long in $MSTR finally capitulating their nonsense support of DAT companies. Sold 1/3 so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023011497593741558)  2026-02-15T12:28Z 217.7K followers, 18.5K engagements


"Is $IONQ cheap yet How about $SKYT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019504553381515653)  2026-02-05T20:13Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Grifter says words. Investors lose 80% $BRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020882508082991311)  2026-02-09T15:28Z 217.9K followers, 51.5K engagements


"Man long clo equity is rough lately. $ECC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021364379204333968)  2026-02-10T23:23Z 217.9K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Gonna be a giant orange ball on Sunday $mstr. At 1.2+ MNAV @saylor is hella busy and yet BTC trades crappy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021629538057211978)  2026-02-11T16:56Z 217.9K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Im certainly no fan of current valuations (though don't ever anchor positions to valuations). But this chart is pretty deceptive. For the entire decade prior NTM Earnings Yields - [--] year rate were deeply negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021708912265728117)  2026-02-11T22:12Z 217.9K followers, 14.9K engagements


"Holy crap. (Though cellular providers have a much more complete data set) does this mean Pokemon Go can do their own Epstein files of all the accounts that interacted with the Pokestop does this mean Pokemon Go can do their own Epstein files of all the accounts that interacted with the Pokestop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021922664852414947)  2026-02-12T12:21Z 217.9K followers, 22.7K engagements


"But let's calculate the investment return they got on their investment. They got the yen return of the stock (the 12.29%) shown above but they also bought yen and then sold yen and so were exposed to the change in the exchange rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666710717993288)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@DavidMortimer6 Of course"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023011621803815165)  2026-02-15T12:28Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Literally NO professional investor MISSES the idea that SaaS businesses are supported by the things mentioned here. This piece is well intentioned but the idea that these stocks are falling on a vibe coding features threat is as naive as anything I've read in months. https://t.co/KRlTbtnA8A https://t.co/KRlTbtnA8A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023013818797101378)  2026-02-15T12:37Z 217.9K followers, 40.8K engagements


"@notY_Iplease Maybe they keep 💯 of the installed base. It's the future that matters. In what world is there going to be license growth at expending price and margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023020705475088894)  2026-02-15T13:04Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"So simple. Be like Mike. Sell your $MSTR and buy BTC. He does exactly what he tells you he is doing and still you want to take the opposite side at an MNAV premium. Why Our plan is to equitize our convertible debt over the next [--] years. Our plan is to equitize our convertible debt over the next [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023123541571620891)  2026-02-15T19:53Z 217.9K followers, 16.6K engagements


"Down half a years dividend in [--] weeks. Only dopes and cultists buy $STRC at par"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019431871231455267)  2026-02-05T15:24Z 217.8K followers, 14.3K engagements


"What's the peak dividend @Saylor is willing to pay on $STRC to get it to trade at par. Currently [-----] before he gives up and this thing has no bottom 12% yield today 13% Roads who needs roads % 15% 12% yield today 13% Roads who needs roads % 15%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019511631466930362)  2026-02-05T20:41Z 217.8K followers, 12.7K engagements


"Out $MSTR [------] Long $MSTR [-----] for a flip Long $MSTR [-----] for a flip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019517825619226647)  2026-02-05T21:05Z 217.8K followers, 30.9K engagements


"$MSTR MNAV expanded to [----] $STRC up to [----]. You folks have got to be the easiest to manipulate investors on the planet. Be like Mike and sell every MSTR security on every rally/MNAV expansion and buy BTC instead HE IS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019788718870020286)  2026-02-06T15:02Z 217.8K followers, 13.8K engagements


"They are simple but often higher fee than necessary. Also the whole concept depends on saving exclusively for the savers lifespan. They are not suited well for savers who have adequate assets to outlive themselves. For those who won't have enough to outlive them. They are fine but again are often expensive from a fees standpoint"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019900606732022137)  2026-02-06T22:26Z 217.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Always own beta. Don't trade. @JeffNadu I dont know about you but I think pro surgeons should encourage amateurs not to do surgery in their spare time Pro wrestlers should encourage amateurs not to copy their stunts And yes pro traders should encourage amateurs to trade less @JeffNadu I dont know about you but I think pro surgeons should encourage amateurs not to do surgery in their spare time Pro wrestlers should encourage amateurs not to copy their stunts And yes pro traders should encourage amateurs to trade less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020195033748775391)  2026-02-07T17:56Z 217.8K followers, 33.5K engagements


"@scrappyabs What's wrong with EEM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022072834177273952)  2026-02-12T22:18Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@Regular_6uy @LukeAne10 Are currencies mean reverting I agree it's possible but that company valuations are mean reverting. Sector composition has not been similar and remains dissimilar tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022651462073938335)  2026-02-14T12:37Z 217.8K followers, [---] engagements


"@methodandtheory Nonsense is trying to trade on [--] week old 13f data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023029647836160025)  2026-02-15T13:40Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@MuniBondz Yes but also already expected to pay off 336BN of net bills they won't reissue in Q2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1779102420133466381)  2024-04-13T11:00Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@OrganizationTao @Richard_Casey @scrappyabs I own 20% of my beta portfolio in gold and commodities. They are not the same as stocks. I also own stocks and bonds but prefer NON US stocks and bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022814678838067232)  2026-02-14T23:26Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"offers three products that our clients value. Happy to discuss which product is best for you. Discounts available for multiple product packages. DS Read/Alpha. Our flagship macro economic research and trading strategy offering. We are excited to be adding some US single name and sector equity and credit coverage for [----] DSMMA. Offering top quality technical and systematic analysis of short term markets while also providing its own take on longer term investing. It's designed for traders DSData. this is a true diamond in the rough. We offer high quality data driven answers to complex client"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1995851306859180460)  2025-12-02T13:43Z 217.9K followers, 204.5K engagements


"BTC Silver Gold are being manipulated by the banks and governments The plunge protection team will prevent all losses on stocks The Fed is a democrat controlled conspiracy QE and YCC is happening The Eurodollar market is signaling an imminent financial crisis There is [-----] lbs of silver in a tomahawk missile Because of 83% and increasing passive indexation stocks will go to zero TSLA will solve humanities problems Am I doing this right https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005636980227371412 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005636980227371412"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2005636980227371412)  2025-12-29T13:48Z 217.9K followers, 47.1K engagements


"@fejau_inc Any word on where the 200BN comes from Cuz it's not just lying around in money market funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2009398628696379858)  2026-01-08T22:55Z 217.9K followers, 13.4K engagements


"As mentioned today the 1:25 nav calc time of the $AGQ 2x levered silver etf caused a local low and the fund fell 60% in value. the goat of all goats on topics such as this wrote a great article on the topic https://t.co/EddjrDjVR3 https://t.co/EddjrDjVR3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017371491621277835)  2026-01-30T22:56Z 217.9K followers, 142.2K engagements


"Fed balance sheet reduction [---] under the Warsh Miran Bessent Trump dovish fed fund rate hawkish balance sheet regime - a workable plan In order to reduce the balance sheet assets you need to reduce the liabilities The liabilities are Roughly 850BN in TGA 2.4TN in Currency in circulation 2.9TN in bank reserves How do you reduce these things TGA. There are two ways [--]. Term out debt reducing the amount of bills rolling per [--] Day period which lowers the statutory requirement for TGA [--]. Agree with the Fed that any bills owned by the Fed don't count in that calculation and increase the bills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2017609464090697762)  2026-01-31T14:42Z 217.9K followers, 121.6K engagements


"What's with the leveraged loan market $ECC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2018699080487014761)  2026-02-03T14:52Z 217.9K followers, 20.4K engagements


"Naive SaaS view. Businesses need software. AI generated software is NOT currently trusted for good reasons Business consumption of software will continue at normal unit growth BUT SaaS CO's have lost pricing power due to the disruption. Even though they won't lose until demand any time soon Same thing as labor. Companies still consume unit labor as much but the threat of losing ones job to a bot/robot even if highly unlikely tilts the negotiation position away from the worker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2019020566473187747)  2026-02-04T12:09Z 217.9K followers, 92.9K engagements


"Japanese Tona future (like sofr) for Dec [----] show a tiny bit more hikes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2020672932800823687)  2026-02-09T01:35Z 217.9K followers, 14.5K engagements


"A corporate bond is a claim on businesses future a stock is a claim on a businesses future. If you think a business is going to cease to exist in [--] years. Why do you think buying equity at a low earnings is good and buying a [--] year or longer corporate bond is stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021168023449554961)  2026-02-10T10:23Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Warsh Waller Miran and Bessent want a smaller fed footprint However the Gang of [--] scare the committee end QT early and start RMO's because they are myopic about a small problem. This DSR outlines a way forward that solves all the problems https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Letter-to-Kevin-and-Scott.pdf https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Letter-to-Kevin-and-Scott.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021669875366924705)  2026-02-11T19:37Z 217.9K followers, 30.9K engagements


"Good counter to shumer but too many words. Tl;dr Tech innovation ➡ fear of doom Tech innovation ➡ opportunity Humans have always adapted and seized opportunity This time is probably not different but EACH time Doomers assumes it is https://t.co/4SMw7birVU https://t.co/4SMw7birVU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2021925006943330760)  2026-02-12T12:31Z 217.9K followers, 22.5K engagements


"On Jan 8th Trump ordered the GSE's to begin buying 200BN in MBS. The impact was immediate as MBS spreads collapsed. What was not known and probably not expected was whether the GSE's would hedge the accumulated duration which make the purchases neutral to the treasury market and which would be consistent with their multi year policy of managing their duration gap to zero. OR would they buy the MBS unhedged and financed with short term issuance. In that case the Trump order would surpress the [--] year and YES would be akin to QE In yesterday's earnings release FNM disclosed a non zero duration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022080343944114407)  2026-02-12T22:48Z 217.9K followers, 25.4K engagements


"Yes. Yea we are GOLDMAN SACHS CEO DAVID SOLOMON : WE'RE GOING TO SEE POTENTIALLY SOME VERY VERY LARGE IPOS UNPRECEDENTED IN SIZE THIS YEAR GOLDMAN SACHS CEO DAVID SOLOMON : WE'RE GOING TO SEE POTENTIALLY SOME VERY VERY LARGE IPOS UNPRECEDENTED IN SIZE THIS YEAR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022320621389045877)  2026-02-13T14:43Z 217.9K followers, 15.7K engagements


"@gnoble79 When calculated the correct way its is [---]. Juicy but not worth fading yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022398349551480873)  2026-02-13T19:51Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Foreign stock investing [---] Us naive Americans dont think about currency returns as part of our portfolios as we have the biggest and for decades best place to invest in equities. Every other global investor cares about currency returns at basic level for their investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666683396297150)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, 15.8K engagements


"When Americans buy a $SPY we receive the return of SPY and its prepackaged in USD. But SPY is not the only equity market in the world (albeit a great one for decades) We could also buy an index fund of Japanese stocks like the MSCI Japan Index"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666690329481493)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"were taking a trip to Tokyo and wanted to buy something locally when they arrived. The U.S. investor hands the yen to a Japanese stock seller and now owns a Japanese stock. One day when they decide to sell the stock they get yen and then they convert the Yen back to USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666703243743643)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Not only do they get the 12.29% Yen return but while holding Yen assets they get the 2.56% Yen appreciation as well Let's do the math to buy [--] of the index at the starting price of [----] with JPY at [------] they needed 2090/156.71=13.337 USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022666714086019220)  2026-02-14T13:38Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@tpartyactivist been saying that for [--] months. Still saying that as a secular rebalance for the next 3-5 years. Tommorow it could go either way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022672822942757261)  2026-02-14T14:02Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@lighthousejerry You seem to be missing the off balance sheet obligations being made. META specifically has a long term make whole guarantee on its data center partnership which is off balance sheet debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022752563511070828)  2026-02-14T19:19Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Cool graphic from @finbarr and of course it's entirely true. SaaS companies like $CRM are in positions of power to manage through and capitalize on AI disruption. OTOH disruption is unpredictable. I am reminded of Nokia EK Motorola Traditional brick and mortar traditional media companies U.S. car companies and a host of companies that looked EXACTLY like this iceberg GET disrupted and don't manage it well. The thing isn't the iceberg. The thing is the pricing power and ability to get folks to buy flip phones or analog cameras in the face of a decade that is starting with Vibe coding. If vibe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2022982673317142562)  2026-02-15T10:33Z 217.9K followers, 11.8K engagements


"13F nonsense Look at all these sophisticated investors dumping $IBIT in Q4. Are they just dumb noobs to crypto with paper hands or perhaps they were unwinding short $MSTR long IBIT trades. And taking massive profits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023009782504812738)  2026-02-15T12:21Z 217.9K followers, 22.6K engagements


"@methodandtheory "Bitcoin and the businesses built around it are meritocratic" That's hilarious. You guys are a fucking cult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023033213401395513)  2026-02-15T13:54Z 217.9K followers, [---] engagements


"I have a substack. I write a few things. I've stopped reading substack lately. They are mostly awful and some combination of too wordy and too AI "enhanced". Can't we just be succinct and real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2023128569191542876)  2026-02-15T20:13Z 217.9K followers, 14.1K engagements


"offers three products that our clients value. Happy to discuss which product is best for you. Discounts available for multiple product packages. DS Read/Alpha. Our flagship macro economic research and trading strategy offering. We are excited to be adding some US single name and sector equity and credit coverage for [----] DSMMA. Offering top quality technical and systematic analysis of short term markets while also providing its own take on longer term investing. It's designed for traders DSData. this is a true diamond in the rough. We offer high quality data driven answers to complex client"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1995851306859180460)  2025-12-02T13:43Z 217.9K followers, 204.5K engagements


"Hey I'm back. Been on self imposed break for two weeks. Let me reintroduce myself I'm Andy Constan and I'm [--] years old and have done some stuff and seen some things I love contributing to Twitter and look forward to contributing again I have a naive ideal that Twitter is the public square where people can discuss their ideas and help each other find truth. I left when I realized I was not living up to my own ideal and getting dragged down into the muck. I didnt like who I had become. I was treating others from major content contributors to innocents with less respect than they deserve and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975682794513645633)  2025-10-07T22:00Z 217.9K followers, 361.4K engagements


"I've been a professional bond trader for [--] years. [--] at the greatest bond trading house in history and the balance at two of the greatest hedge fund bond trading firms in history. You be the judge if I know how to trade bonds. I sell my macro research to a dozen of the biggest hedge funds on the planet. They seem to value my insight on bond trading as do my clients at Perhaps a disgraced equity trader who poses as a kitty knows more than me but that's for others to decide Here's how bonds work. Did you know that if you buy a two year bond at 5% yield and hold it for [--] years you make 5% per"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1701777196690362591)  2023-09-13T01:57Z 217.9K followers, 897.4K engagements


"My dad is having Brain Cancer Surgery at the moment. Wish us luck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1443544459275288576)  2021-09-30T11:53Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I need to reset my moral and ethical compass perhaps. Could someone explain on Moral Ethical or even religious grounds if one prefers the justification for Trump coin being Okay I see it as a complete and total failure in judgement by our duly elected president who I support as my President. I don't care if it's legal. It may be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1880665647123959839)  2025-01-18T17:16Z 217.9K followers, 288.3K engagements


"My dads train collection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1514967056621445122)  2022-04-15T14:01Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Dynamic hedging of a long call [---] This is going to be a really rough basics of dynamic hedging with no math. It's how I taught the Salomon Brothers and Bridgewater associates training class this topic. Just concepts. It's important to understand because sometimes the dynamic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1576332584283316224)  2022-10-01T22:05Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"The Brady commission a story. In [----] on October 19th the stock market crashed. I was [--] years old and had been working at Salomon as a corporate finance analyst. The job was a two year stint where at the end you left to go to business school. It was a thrilling job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1527275609336033280)  2022-05-19T13:10Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Bessent changed the measure of success for the administration to [--] year yields instead of stonks for a reason. Are you paying attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1890412955625193542)  2025-02-14T14:49Z 217.9K followers, 251.5K engagements


"QT starts today a [---] thread. QT is simply the Fed reducing its balance sheet. They accomplish this in two ways. [--]. They let their existing maturities payoff and they don't reinvest the proceeds and burn the cash (called runoff) [--]. They sell bonds and mortgages into the private"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1532006483826728960)  2022-06-01T14:29Z 217.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I am wrong. If you feel the need to rub it in. Go ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1735026907236663676)  2023-12-13T20:00Z 217.9K followers, 428.8K engagements


"Deploy cash on the close Raise cash. Raise cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908231042659762518)  2025-04-04T18:51Z 217.9K followers, 415.6K engagements


"Dad died two years ago today. His family and his train collection were his greatest joys. RIP Dad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1734562120052646178)  2023-12-12T13:13Z 217.3K followers, 88.7K engagements


"My mother hosted a family reunion recently which I attended. Largely older folks than me I'm early Gen X and the guests were boomer and silent. They had zero understanding that they have stolen their standard of living from the future and were quite pissed that I told them so. I'm super fun at parties as you might imagine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951981718870618541)  2025-08-03T12:21Z 217.9K followers, 202.5K engagements

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