#  @cedargrovecm Cedar Grove Capital Management Cedar Grove Capital Management posts on X about $hims, in the, hims, $cpri the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1418299649048391680/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -92% - [--] Month [------] -74% - [--] Months [-------] +58% - [--] Year [-------] +22% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1418299649048391680/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -17% - [--] Months [--] +7.10% - [--] Year [--] -60% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1418299649048391680/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.66% - [--] Month [-----] +3.80% - [--] Months [-----] +34% - [--] Year [-----] +87% ### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1418299649048391680/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) **Social topic influence** [$hims](/topic/$hims), [in the](/topic/in-the), [hims](/topic/hims), [$cpri](/topic/$cpri), [market](/topic/market), [company](/topic/company), [$tpr](/topic/$tpr), [ipo](/topic/ipo), [$ww](/topic/$ww), [$genk](/topic/$genk) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@wagiecapital](/creator/undefined) [@sankatyhead](/creator/undefined) [@yiqinsh](/creator/undefined) [@bobvh33](/creator/undefined) [@mamamootwits](/creator/undefined) [@chrisrinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@bbslznd](/creator/undefined) [@wsj](/creator/undefined) [@ros](/creator/undefined) [@kevonstage](/creator/undefined) [@tsohinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@realligercub](/creator/undefined) [@paulcerro](/creator/undefined) [@fiveguyschase](/creator/undefined) [@patconnolly](/creator/undefined) [@vestager](/creator/undefined) [@amazon](/creator/undefined) [@eucommission](/creator/undefined) [@reuters](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI)](/topic/$cpri) [Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)](/topic/$tpr) [WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW)](/topic/$ww) [GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. (GENK)](/topic/$genk) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Limitus (LMT)](/topic/$lmt) [WOOF (WOOF)](/topic/$woof) [Soho House & Co Inc (SHCO)](/topic/$shco) [Liquidia Corporation Common Stock (LQDA)](/topic/$lqda) [Chewy, Inc. (CHWY)](/topic/$chwy) [General Dynamics Corporation (GD)](/topic/$gd) [Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)](/topic/$noc) [Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)](/topic/$dpz) [Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX)](/topic/$rtx) [Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)](/topic/$xpof) [Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTON)](/topic/$pton) [DarkShield Games Studio (DKS)](/topic/$dks) [Foot Locker, Inc. (FL)](/topic/$fl) [Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)](/topic/$cmg) [Interactive Strength, Inc. (TRNR)](/topic/$trnr) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba) [Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT)](/topic/$rent) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Notable tidbit here on growth rates in the pet space regarding online traffic. $BARK $WOOF $CHWY $PETS" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1521117049711439873) 2022-05-02T13:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "For Petco and Chewy investors this is why we have a problem when the market favors the latter over the former Looking at a business foundation Petco offers more than Chewy currently does or even can offer Financially Petco is doing much better and IS profitable $WOOF $CHWY" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1542157402673496064) 2022-06-29T14:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "We outlined why on a business level Petco $WOOF makes more sense than Chewy $CHWY The latter is inherently limited to what business goods/services it can offer. With almost $10B in sales CHWY still cannot generate profitability or meaningful FCF. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/why-petco-is-a-better-roi-than-chewy#details https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/why-petco-is-a-better-roi-than-chewy#details" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1574736749368156163) 2022-09-27T12:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting view for $UBER and $DASH" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1629900485904744449) 2023-02-26T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Friendly reminder that $CHWY active customer base is plateauing while Petco $WOOF has been doing great in adding more members to its flywheel Petco Q3'21 - 23.3M Q4'21 - 24.1M Q1'22 - 24.4M Q2'22 - 24.7M Q3'22 - 25M See our original thoughts on which is better in the next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1629945216302972930) 2023-02-26T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "6 straight Qs of active customer growth (since they started reporting) Petco Q3'21 - 23.3M Q4'21 - 24.1M Q1'22 - 24.4M Q2'22 - 24.7M Q3'22 - 25M $WOOF has added [---] million active customers since they started reporting the metric in Q3'21" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1638526948098945025) 2023-03-22T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Take a look at our M&A arb update part II for $MSFT and $ATVI below. Includes recap of issues raised by Lina Khan of the FTC rebuttals that disprove anti-trust concerns and our updated trade structure that has a bit on an insurance policy. Link in the next tweet. Enjoy" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1650289045635751938) 2023-04-24T00:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just published our monthly update for CGC. Since our Q123 update we have - Added [--] net new positions - Resized [--] positions - Exited [--] positions - Traded [--] positions We also gave two updates in the beginning around $TRNR and the $MSFT / $ATVI trade. Link in next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1654818929171222530) 2023-05-06T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just released our notes on Xponential Fitness $XPOF and Peloton $PTON recent earnings. TL;DR - XPOF still seeing strength in consumer spending and KPI continue to crush - PTON slows the bleeding but CF subs under pressure and are guiding down Link in next tweet 👇🏼" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1658073581522239488) 2023-05-15T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just published our thoughts on the hot GLP-1 market. - What they are - How they work - The issues of the drug/industry - What we think the bottom line is Enjoy $PFE $SNY $AZN $NVO $LLY https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/glp-1s-effective-but-with-a-catch https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/glp-1s-effective-but-with-a-catch" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1678433908302712832) 2023-07-10T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@FiveGuysChase Where do you see $40 generic Epi-pens don't even go for $40 yet you're saying GLP-1 injectables will Source" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1678600884987543552) 2023-07-11T03:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements ""Connected Fitness is the Future" $PTON $TRNR https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ipo-notes-interactive-strength-trnr https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/pton-a-zero-or-hero#details https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ipo-notes-interactive-strength-trnr https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/pton-a-zero-or-hero#details" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1695434693166972943) 2023-08-26T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PTON Peloton reported earnings last week and the results were very disappointing. The stock sold off 30% in PM and recovered slightly by EoD The company has increased its churn lowered margins and its balance sheet is looking tight. See my updated thoughts in the next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1695938379060265352) 2023-08-27T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The returns of defense contractors are quite interesting when you zoom out during different periods of "conflict" 5yr 10yr 20yr All-time $SPY $BA $NOC $LMT $RTX $GD" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1696135211010990438) 2023-08-28T12:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I've been looking into an IPO that just went live today called Inspire Veterinary Partners $IVP They're a veterinary care roll-up who decided to go public to raise funds to acquire more businesses and allow insiders to sell Below is a thread about the IVP and why I passed 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1697027701033341419) 2023-08-30T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ IVP was looking to IPO between $4 - $6/share with [---] million shares raising potentially $8 million The IPO priced at $4 full [---] million shares but then opened at $3.75 only to close down to $3.07 but not before it reached an intraday low of $2.26" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1697027702643982686) 2023-08-30T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "9/ 🚩#1 While the company was looking to sell [---] million shares in the IPO insiders were also looking to offload another [----] million shares [---] days after the IPO closes This opens the door for massive dilution and downward pressure on the stock" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1697027713431662801) 2023-08-30T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "VERY interesting takeaway from the Dexcom $DXCM investor presentation. GLP-1 and CGM use can love in harmony once treatment starts. Dexcom data suggests that CGM usage can be nearly 4x depending on the type of patient undergoing treatment. $NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1699473752466092410) 2023-09-06T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Return on Capital for defense stocks aren't all created equal $LMT $NOC $RTX $BA" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1699810579358101979) 2023-09-07T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Stable growth in defense and international arms build-up means that shareholders have done well holding onto $LMT over the years" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1699826360464625679) 2023-09-07T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Shares outstanding for the following names have decreased by nearly half over the last 20yrs $LMT $NOC $GD" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1699907937358184579) 2023-09-07T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@_Pat_Connolly Thinking too simply. That's why I labeled at the end that there's going to be two divisions of status. The ones that can afford a "mined" diamond and those that choose not too. Almost like getting a coach purse vs an LVMH purse" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1702001019146719580) 2023-09-13T16:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "It's incredibly fascinating to see how the thematic pet trade has played out YTD A market that was - treating them like children - sticky consumables/wellness - massive pull forward This is a taste of thoughts we'll share over the next week or so $WOOF $CHWY $PET $TRUP $ROVR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1709962326042951711) 2023-10-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just released our Q3'23 letter. In Q3 [----] Cedar Grove Capital Management returned 16.3% gross return compared to -3.7% for the S&P [---]. Take a look at our positions market commentary and portfolio thoughts in the next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1711170374262517822) 2023-10-09T00:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Since the terrorist attack on Israel over [--] weeks ago US defense contractors have risen sharply This has fit into our published thoughts last month on increasing geopolitical tension instability and de-globalization This will only get worse in the future $LMT $NOC $RTX $GD" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1717163920144699718) 2023-10-25T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Absolutely brutal when you think about where $ELF and $EL sit on which side of makeup 5-Year Return e.l.f: +807% Estee Lauder: -16% Don't always play down an underdog" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1720215938966942155) 2023-11-02T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Apollo believes we're entering a new default cycle and the numbers are pretty alarming. Maturities coming due very soon with new rates in the double digits. Bankruptcies climbing. Default among general loans and HY rising very quickly. People really counting on a rate cut" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1729896296440381869) 2023-11-29T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's all about perspective and how you perceive war to continue into the future $LMT" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1731354895041585605) 2023-12-03T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Taking a look at the Tapestry $TPR and Capri $CPRI deal it's very puzzling why the spread is still so large. Below we've gone over the bigger points on what might derail this deal from happening. Have a look below and let us know what you think. Did we miss anything" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732740979810091480) 2023-12-07T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We've officially exited our Weight Watchers $WW short position this morning. The hype surrounding GLP-1s led to its unjustified rise despite high leverage and little progress in their pivot thus the market re-corrected the name. Stay tuned for a post-mortem write-up on our site" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1735025880034865261) 2023-12-13T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We've officially exited our Interactive Strength $TRNR short position. Our thesis proved true back when we highlighted the flawed business as it was going public back in February. Given connected fitness like Tonal TRNR might not survive long Link:" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1735308295324258570) 2023-12-14T14:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays We're sharing our thoughts on tomorrow morning's Amazon $AMZN / iRobot $IRBT M&A deal. Subscribe via the link in our bio to get it at 8am EST. Enjoy" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1739295319584588170) 2023-12-25T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We're [--] months into the Amazon $AMZN / iRobot $IRBT acquisition [--] Commission has already signed off (UK) [--] will have a decision by Feb [--] (EU) [--] is still floating in the wind (FTC) Given the current spread the arb looks tempting. Have a look at why we think so. Link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739640862697562174) 2023-12-26T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mamamootwits such as" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739653142218768434) 2023-12-26T14:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mamamootwits @vestager @amazon @EU_Commission What does this have anything to do with pets Did you mean to comment on the iRobot post" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1739690676978073857) 2023-12-26T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "At least [--] firms that went public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs went bankrupt this year. Measured from their peak market capitalizations the insolvencies bookend the loss of more than $46 billion of total equity value" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741448708657480131) 2023-12-31T13:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Back in [----] Rent The Runway $RENT announced a $125 million investment which propelled it to unicorn status. In theory renting the hottest fashion instead of buying made sense the problem was two-fold - expensive logistics and COVID. We believe there's no recovery coming. 1/ Going to share thoughts on a clothing retailer tomorrow that I believe will go bankrupt. While I won't be making a play on it given its current status it's still interesting considering the hype surrounding it. Make sure to check it out tomorrow via @cedargrovecm Any guesses https://t.co/wgT5HYYqiz Going to share thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741854896993751210) 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to help customers lose weight was anything but realistic from the start and it has taken investors for a ride." See why we inevitably decided to short this GLP-1 trade below" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1746930813306831224) 2024-01-15T16:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@WagieCapital Bull thesis never held the weight that the markets were pricing in to begin with. $LLY launching their own telehealth offering for a drug is far from anything new. Pharma does this from time to time not to mention they aren't the only ones who offer GLP-1s. Typically their 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1748012772074356987) 2024-01-18T16:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@WagieCapital Platforms are pretty inferior to other companies platforms that include more holistic solutions treatment and support. $NVO the other player in the space (obviously) but $LLY offering doesn't give discounts which gets very expensive. While I agree it was a bang to $WW it 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1748013656468603286) 2024-01-18T16:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@WagieCapital The stock was already coming down from the above $13/share reached at the tail end of summer which is how we locked in our gain Excluding $LLY news which doesn't help with insurance to our understanding the pivot was going to be a costly one. More than what made sense 3/3" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1748014403180454232) 2024-01-18T16:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting call-out on $LLY "Lilly's valuation leaves no room for error. The current share price implies that Lilly will sell around $70B worth of Zepbound in [----]. In our view the market is overly optimistic. - $GS" GS thinks $35B by then. Humira peaked @ $21B in '22" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1751620037360734455) 2024-01-28T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As we've said before geopolitical tensions will continue to fuel demand for military armaments vehicles and equipment "Sales of U.S. military equipment to foreign governments in [----] rose 16% to a record $238 billion." @Reuters $LMT $RTX $NOC $GD" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1752459507823689914) 2024-01-30T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ChrisRinvesting Too much uncertainty with government and policies that could affect how the business is able to operate there. Tariffs trade tensions a slowing economy a stock market getting propped" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1752891170001207461) 2024-02-01T03:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ChrisRinvesting The consortium was responsible for 65% of the shares bought in this offering. Demand is lackluster" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1752899759348605259) 2024-02-01T03:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Amer Sports $AS prices at $13 (below $16 min) opens at $13.40 and closes @ $13.45. Clearly barely anyone wanted this IPO" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1753166673148776644) 2024-02-01T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I shared my thoughts on [--] IPOs that I previously wrote about last year and why I passed on them (both down 90% - $TRNR $IVP) Additionally I also shared my notes on [--] Arb trades as a result of iRobot $IRBT deal falling apart ( $CPRI & $ACI). Lmk your thoughts via link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1757164300064493916) 2024-02-12T22:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@bbslznd There are antitrust provisions in the deal but just because FTC sues doesn't immediately mean $TPR can back out. It's only if FTC wins or if both parties agree that no path to deal completion is likely. This is also the same FTC that allowed Kors to buy Jimmy Choo and Versace" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1757391207913730064) 2024-02-13T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bbslznd And allowed $TPR to buy Stuart Weitzman and Kate Spade" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1757391379624251578) 2024-02-13T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Too much of Amer Sports $AS float is controlled by insiders. Just look at today's price movements as an example. We're talking hundreds of shares at a time for each bar you see. For a $7 billion market cap company you'd expect more movement" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1757871802167042077) 2024-02-14T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The downside for regional banks with CRE exposure is far from over. Yea it gets way more interesting Among five of the largest states with the most office property transactions namely California Florida New York Illinois and Arizona there has been a consistently large uptick in the percentage of office properties sold at a loss in Q3. https://t.co/PLHZwlV8qq Yea it gets way more interesting Among five of the largest states with the most office property transactions namely California Florida New York Illinois and Arizona there has been a consistently large uptick in the percentage of office" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1760309220627374483) 2024-02-21T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "CRE might be the bubble to burst in the next year or so. $NYCB has seen it's stock decline 55% YTD. Take a look at how much CRE maturity is due over the next two years and who are the most exposed" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1761415659060101365) 2024-02-24T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@GavinEzekowitz We're almost a year in from the completion of the acquisition of Sequence. I will give her that the [-----] clinical subscribers was better than what I ad by a multiple of 3x. However you have to remember that $16M in cash is going out the door in [---] months as part of deal" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1762953711238725975) 2024-02-28T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Many do not see the dire need for NATO countries to boost military spending. China Russia and Iran have all seen significant increases in defense budgets with Russia surpassing the US over the last decade. $LMT $GD $RTX $NOC" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1769354685754888268) 2024-03-17T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Going to be releasing a new post tomorrow on an interesting IPO. Upon hitting the market it should be of micro-cap size for investors who like that size. An IPO I'm seriously considering buying when it goes public. Sign up below to get it for free" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1770184475713867913) 2024-03-19T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Given their ER yesterday Chewy $CHWY has had [--] straight quarters of active customer declines Peaking in Q4'21 with [------] million and now down to [------] million as of FY'23 An industry I was once bullish on pets has been a hard one to own. Despite no debt still not convinced" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1770786183318216823) 2024-03-21T12:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Deal probability for Tapestry $TPR to complete its deal with Capri $CPRI has dropped dramatically over the last few months standing at just under 50%. It's frustrating I know. I revisited key past points and new updates in my most recent note. Go to next tweet to check it out" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1772242296257351965) 2024-03-25T12:41Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements "https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/arb-update-the-frustrating-cpri-tpr-deal https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/arb-update-the-frustrating-cpri-tpr-deal" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1772242298614522199) 2024-03-25T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@absreturnchaser Yes but they wouldn't do that. Deal break is a really weird structure but arguably favors $TPR more. Divesting a brand wouldn't make sense because each has acquired assets to strengthen their own position/image over time. I don't think that's on the table though" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1772274356938317928) 2024-03-25T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MatusStraznicky The luxury slowdown was already very apparent when they went into deal negotiations last year so that wasn't really new. The rebound has just been better for $TPR vs $CPRI since November's earnings and continues in February's reports" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1772357224645472331) 2024-03-25T20:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Dynamicbrands $TPR already has the debt on the BS though which I thought was a rather interesting way to handle M&A" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1772383532653875263) 2024-03-25T22:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DL24SK No $TPR + $CPRI footwear exposure in Europe is still sub 10%. Largest area of question is really handbags because let's be real lots of affordable luxury/luxury comes from (small)leather goods and accessories I know of Bill's position but by no means am I taking that as part" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1772384305865445874) 2024-03-25T22:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just released my Q1'24 letter. Took some bruises from the $IRBT and $SAVE deals but all else being equal pleased with the performance. Have a look at current holdings commentary and sizing. Position notes: $RH $IRBT $PTON $SAVE $MTCH $CPRI $TPR https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/q124-cgc-quarterly-letterr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/q124-cgc-quarterly-letterr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1776229770151268682) 2024-04-05T12:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "A gentle reminder that Domino's $DPZ is up +20% YTD and +34% in the last [--] months on improving fundamentals Don't bet against affordable American pizza" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1777111242080956808) 2024-04-07T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with a '23 target of $460 ($16.43 @ 28x) and NT downside risk of $304 Funny enough it bottomed in '22 at $310 and closed '23 at $411 hitting $460 3M later My next update will be on DPZ after its 40% 6M return Link in bio We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our viewpoints on key headwinds the company faces going into earnings tomorrow. Key issues: - Commodity inflation - Labor shortage - Consumer spending All get addressed below https://t.co/s0ZI0TDQgI We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1777861621169168893) 2024-04-10T00:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Incredible $RENT was up 36% today and then another 59% after reporting earnings Guidance was below estimates yet the stock rallies after it claims it will be FCF break even (about time) and there's a surge in shopper interest Post AH move all -53% YTD losses would be erased. Back in [----] Rent The Runway $RENT announced a $125 million investment which propelled it to unicorn status. In theory renting the hottest fashion instead of buying made sense the problem was two-fold - expensive logistics and COVID. We believe there's no recovery coming. 1/ https://t.co/NogqUeF4Ja Back in [----] Rent The" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1778207557351571497) 2024-04-10T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Assuming break prices at $22/share and $28 depending on how bullish or not you are implied market probability is still sub 50% at the current moment $CPRI $TPR CC: @sankaty_head @yiqinsh @bobvh33" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780671634262675493) 2024-04-17T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@essential6t7 @Sankaty_Head @yiqinsh @BobVH33 Hard to place a higher multiple on declining growth. $TPR has shown that its business is turning a corner but $CPRI has yet to do so on the last two prints. Not saying it can't either but historically speaking FCF has been healthy but imagine it will be a slow ride up again" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1780673779905024055) 2024-04-17T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Quite the rebound we've seen in margins for Domino's $DPZ since inflation took a toll on the business in [----]. Despite sales not surpassing FY'22 margins have either met or exceeded prior inflationary periods" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781295934040883642) 2024-04-19T12:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looking toward Domino's $DPZ average U.S. unit-level EBITDA we're looking at a healthy rebound from FY'22 lows when labor shortages and food basket costs put stores under immense pressure" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781404902435979618) 2024-04-19T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Alamar Foods SAR.6014 one of a handful of Domino's $DPZ franchisees that went public in Saudi Arabia has been completely left behind since the start of December 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781461240381833312) 2024-04-19T23:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/dpz-dominos-risk-reward-not-there-right-nowr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/dpz-dominos-risk-reward-not-there-right-nowr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781671241536901393) 2024-04-20T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tomorrow's post $LMT $NOC $LHX $RTX $GD $BA" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1784267563314163832) 2024-04-27T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC $RTX $GD $BA $LHX 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/defense-contractors-peace-means-having https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/defense-contractors-peace-means-having" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1784571739957018985) 2024-04-28T13:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the upside with GAAP EPS at $3.58 I had sales at $1.087 billion vs $1.084 billion (actual) My EPS was $3.27 mainly driven by not much margin expansion that we saw from Q1'23 vs $3.58 $DPZ saw margin improvement from food basket cost declines and higher customer transaction costs Interestingly enough I thought they'd be a little more aggressive in their buybacks modeling out $60 million in buybacks vs $25 million (actual) Great Q but my concerns are below which I also" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1785838298109194514) 2024-05-02T01:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Going to be sharing our updated thoughts tomorrow on the Tapestry $TPR / Capri $CPRI deal The post will focus on the FTC complaint and going one by one on each of them. Each complaint will be followed by a rebuttal backed by data and will include at the end what we believe the chance the FTC wins based on being able to win each argument flagged. http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788002595828584679) 2024-05-08T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "New post is out. I shared my rebuttals to the FTC complaint against $TPR and $CPRI and went point by point as to why they were either wrong or misinformed. They say the deal will: - Hurt H2H competition ➡ False - Innovation and marketing will suffer ➡ False - Employees will lose out ➡ False - Pricing will go up ➡ False - Discounting will limit consumers' ability to buy merchandise ➡ False The FTC has overstepped its mandate while also making fools of themselves as to why they sued to block this deal All my rebuttals are backed with data and I've included at the end a summation of the "odds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788178328127517032) 2024-05-08T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Depending on how you look at it since we know that $COST sales are up that more and more peopl are really looking for value" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1792528196325593553) 2024-05-20T12:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'm long GEN Restaurant Group $GENK and believe the company is in the early innings of a multi-year expansion story that has yet to be recognized by the broader market Based on my assumptions the returns could be in excess of [---] - 200% over the next few years 🔗: 1/ https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-a-multi-bagger https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-a-multi-bagger" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793255864737866117) 2024-05-22T12:21Z [----] followers, 38.4K engagements "@ChillestTilly Not really a concern of mine. My real concern is around the execution risk of new units and the quality of each new unit. Moats in restaurants barely exist. What's $CMG's moat or $MCD Anyone can copy them and many have. The emphasis should be on the execution not the moat" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1793289813124157765) 2024-05-22T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just wanted to share a quick update with you all about the research schedule. Fly-E Group ( $FLYE) an interesting IPO I researched and published earlier in the year on will be going public this Wednesday (estimated). I'll get a post out on the updated financials and final thoughts prior to IPO pricing for those of you who might be interested in this micro-cap IPO with seemingly a long runway. I'm aiming to get it out tomorrow morning for everyone. Additionally as part of the regular paid programming Hims & Hers Health ( $HIMS) will be my next long-form research post due out next Wednesday" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1797693579025895596) 2024-06-03T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FLYE FLY-E Group is planning on going public tomorrow selling 3M shares between $3 - $5. I've updated my notes and commentary on the IPO and though I really wanted this to be a diamond in the rough for a micro-cap stock (+46% YoY rev growth) I've decided to pass. See why in the link below. 🔗: https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/fly-e-group-pricing-looking-a-little-richutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=gs5o7 Released my notes on FLY-E Group's $FLYE proposed IPO. It's an interesting case considering it's local profitable founder led and owned and theoretically has a large" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1797957821390021116) 2024-06-04T11:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Key to the $HIMS thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1799534694817546465) 2024-06-08T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS my second largest position (previously largest) officially hit the 70% return mark as of close today based on end of March investment. Tomorrow I'll be sharing my research and what I label as the 4-pillars to its (continued) success. [--] pillar I've yet to see anyone acknowledge. Looking forward to sharing with you all in the AM. 🔗: http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800623277032771931) 2024-06-11T20:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sneak peek callout of tomorrow's report. "Its widely understood why $Hims entering weight loss treatment in general is a positive but you need to understand the forces at play here that make it so. Broader tailwinds are further reinforced by Hims approach to overcome and better position around headwinds."" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1800708089038897157) 2024-06-12T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long Hims & Hers Health $HIMS and is currently my second largest holding (previously largest). After a 70% portfolio return since the end of March I've released my research on the company in one of the most in-depth reports I've written to date. I believe there are [--] key pillars to the continued success of $HIMS with one I've noticed not many bulls having mentioned at all. These 4-pillars all cohesively come together to improve financial KPIs margins and growth at a time when differentiation in the market is key. I'm very bullish on the name and my" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800865242383098030) 2024-06-12T12:18Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements "How interesting one of the risks I mentioned in my $HIMS report below was regulation coming down on broader telehealth because of bad apples I cited Cerebral but forgot Done was also one of the pill mills that got caught by the DEA @WSJ just reported that the execs got charged As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long Hims & Hers Health $HIMS and is currently my second largest holding (previously largest). After a 70% portfolio return since the end of March I've released my research on the company in one of the most in-depth reports I've written to https://t.co/i5sB7HSZCl As first disclosed on" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1801295883985727577) 2024-06-13T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I occasionally share research in a quick chart form. Yesterday I shared a chart on the absurd valuation that is $CAVA relative to peers. Even labeled as the "next Chipotle" $CMG the valuation is at nosebleed levels implying either unbelievable growth or an unsustainable valuation. Click the link below and check it out for yourself. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cavas-nosebleed-valuation-makes https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cavas-nosebleed-valuation-makes" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1802675198715482424) 2024-06-17T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Pulling an excerpt from the post below on $HIMS compounding strategy. "Based on the Professional Compounding Centers of America (PCCA) retail pharmacies can typically expect around 3% net profit. Based on the data collected many high-performing compounding-only pharmacies operate with 20% net profits. Hybrid types of pharmacies net profits are typically in the range of 8-12%. Considering that Hims pharmacies now support over 80% of medication/product distribution you can see these efficiencies and cost savings partially being reflected in the margins." As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1803036793563984355) 2024-06-18T12:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup sounds good to me" despite the price being 100% more than if they went to pick it up physically. I also noticed that the actual item itself is 30% more for delivery" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1803607233000833059) 2024-06-20T01:54Z [----] followers, 33K engagements "🚩 Suspected FLY-E Group $FLYE Post-IPO Manipulation On June 4th I shared my updated thoughts on FLY-E Group's (FLYE) IPO and notified everyone that as much as I wanted to like the company I was going to pass. Originally FLYE was looking to sell 3M shares between $4 - $5. They ended up pricing only 2.25M shares @ $4 in a downsized IPO. The company opened for trading at $5.50 and quickly went down to $3.59 not long after. Made sense to me considering the business. However the stock has been on a tear and I believe due to its low float (10% of SO) and thus ability to be manipulated traders are" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1805578691533033724) 2024-06-25T12:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Unemployment never just goes up a little bit. It almost always goes up a lot a bit. With the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1% this past Friday many are worried that this will eventually trigger the Sahm Rule which has an accurate history of predicting recessions. Many are now calling for the Fed to start lowering rates to avoid calamity. I dove into the rule shared my thoughts on what history tells us and even approached the rule at a more granular level. Click through to see what the data says. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/sahm-rule-about-to-be-triggered" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1810648766262780058) 2024-07-09T12:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Going to be sharing my $HIMS compounded GLP-1 business projections tomorrow in the AM. With so much talk around the prospects of this product offering for the company I figured I'd share my "realistic projections" through [----]. I'll go over - Limitations of the offering - Churn assumptions - Shooting down the $1 billion claim - Realistic net revenue build If you're long $HIMS and want to get a not-in-the-pie or abstract walkthrough like many on this app sign up below to get it in your inbox tomorrow morning. http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810770935047229940) 2024-07-09T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As promised I've released my research on $HIMS compounded GLP-1 business through the end of [----]. Given that the stock is up 78% from post Q1'24 earnings the market is heavily pricing in the new product offering despite earnings revisions not reflecting it. Thus there's a lot to be open for interpretation. I break down scenarios on how the company would even be able to reach $1 billion in revenue (highly unlikely) but more importantly the path to what I believe are realistic expectations for the business by EoY [----]. My projections incorporate assumptions for churn and growth for the various" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1811015248972779842) 2024-07-10T12:30Z [----] followers, 25.2K engagements "Domino's $DPZ earnings out tomorrow. You can read my most recent commentary below post LQ earnings and link to the most recent write-up (free) explaining my thoughts Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the upside with GAAP EPS at $3.58 I had sales at $1.087 billion vs $1.084 billion (actual) My EPS was $3.27 mainly driven by not much margin expansion that https://t.co/0f1yULQUy4 Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1813668150564790377) 2024-07-17T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "📉 $DPZ down 12% in PM and 13% since I covered the name back in April It's always nice when a thesis is proven right. On April 20th I wrote a write-up on Domino's $DPZ highlighting what I believed to be a fully priced in stock and that investing in it now had very little upside. The allocation of capital in this name would not be worth its time. There were a few reasons behind this but primarily it was driven by aggressive management expectations for growth that I did not believe were there. Original article (free): I provided both my logic and model output on valuation. Q1 earnings proved" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1813911228311392734) 2024-07-18T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I am LONG Red Cat Holdings $RCAT as an event-driven trade. $RCAT is a finalist for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap. I believe that should they win the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1815724689135747440) 2024-07-23T12:24Z [----] followers, 31.4K engagements "@Greatstockpix It was a pump and dump since last month https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1815773240595194114 📉 Last month I warned everyone that $FLYE looked like it was getting manipulated and to stay away from it. Today Stock pukes 63% and trading halted multiple times in the last hour Idk who's dumping but this stock was one that I passed on (see thread + research) https://t.co/7OkADRlASY https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1815773240595194114 📉 Last month I warned everyone that $FLYE looked like it was getting manipulated and to stay away from it. Today Stock pukes 63% and trading halted" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1815831851233337492) 2024-07-23T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I've been saying this since last year. $WW; YTD -85% [--]. It was necessary for $WW to pivot to GLP-1s [--]. The ramp is too slow to offset the core business decline [--]. The debt overhang can really strain this company if #2 can't happen quickly and financials deteriorate before refinancing can occur "Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to help customers lose weight was anything but realistic from the start and it has taken investors for a ride." See why we inevitably decided to short this GLP-1 trade below https://t.co/mc19PJfre6 "Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1816814777991155940) 2024-07-26T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When looking at how the defense industry has scaled over the last few years you'll need to pay attention to the backlog The ramp-up becomes evident over the last few quarters in $LMT $NOC $GD $RTX Re-armament is in full swing for potential future conflict Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC https://t.co/RpnM4GHmaG Newest post is out now on the defense industry." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1816844033924235622) 2024-07-26T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yea no kidding. "Among consumers who report ordering less delivery 41% said it was because of high delivery fees while 48% point to inflated menu prices according to the report." $UBER $DASH $CMG Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup sounds good to me" despite the price being 100% more than if they went to pick it up physically. I also noticed that the actual item itself is 30% more for delivery. https://t.co/y6yVcPRNE2 Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1817206928289759303) 2024-07-27T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Chewy $CHWY has not been able to reignite growth in its active customer base since peaking in Q4'21. Since peaking the company has only had [--] quarters of Q/Q growth. (active customer is defined as making a purchase in a 364-day period)" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1817968909800161739) 2024-07-29T17:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For all those new here be sure to check out the recent research that I've published. $HIMS continues to be my most read post of all time but others not far behind. Others include $MAMA $FLYE $CAVA $GENK and $CPRI to name just a few Free trial available for all paid content http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1818990468278960140) 2024-08-01T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hims $HIMS is reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell and the last few days have sent the stock down 18% on various news and market events. A name I know well I decided to share my updated thoughts and model assumptions prior to ER. In the below post I go over - How recent news of $LLY changes the prospects for HIMS compounding - How Im viewing WW Internationals $WW clinical business when analyzing headwinds regarding HIMS. - Updated HIMS valuation with an isolated GLP-1 sales model. Click the link below to access the research. 🔗:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1820097013079281720) 2024-08-04T13:58Z [----] followers, 39.6K engagements "$WW bond yields jumped to 39% now. Stock price down to $.72. They can't lose access to capital markets or their lifelines will be considerably cut The debt overhang of $WW is a problem. Looking at one of their 4.5% bonds that matures in [----] the yield has jumped from 14.5% at the beginning of the year to 30.5% as of yesterday https://t.co/GiNithPbDl The debt overhang of $WW is a problem. Looking at one of their 4.5% bonds that matures in [----] the yield has jumped from 14.5% at the beginning of the year to 30.5% as of yesterday https://t.co/GiNithPbDl" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1821522861778964846) 2024-08-08T12:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$RCAT is up 18% right now after earnings. Based on the financials and the acquisition of Flight Wave the no win contract math for the company has changed significantly. The margin of safety has improved and the R/R of this trade appears even more compelling. So far so good. Can still check out the research below. I am LONG Red Cat Holdings $RCAT as an event-driven trade. $RCAT is a finalist for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap. I believe that should they win the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1821930695314354522) 2024-08-09T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS released their Q2'24 last Monday and the market was less than pleased and sent the stock briefly down below $15 on Thursday. We believe that the comments made by Andrew around the future strategy of compounded GLP-1s are less than ideal. Teaser report in next comment 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1822640694424686704) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, 63.6K engagements "Despite having a great quarter against unbaked GLP-1 figures the once black-and-white GLP-1 market that $HIMS was to be operating during a pre/post-GLP-1 shortage has turned gray. 2/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1822640697226235982) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Over the last nearly [--] years $HIMS has been able to prove to the healthcare industry that telehealth solutions can be a cost-effective and preferable way for patients to seek treatment options as shown by the nearly [---] million platform subscribers 3/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1822640699671478754) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "However when operating in a gray area in the healthcare industry this only amplifies the risks brought onto the company by government regulation watchdogs and other pharmaceutical companies. $HIMS 4/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1822640701298847948) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Based on our findings we believe that the new strategy laid out in the earnings call once the GLP-1 shortage ends potentially changes the future potential of $HIMS that some investors have also figured out but others haven't yet. 5/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1822640702913753594) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When conducting our research we've also made some discoveries with $HIMS core business that is being overshadowed by the weight loss category. These findings hint at another issue that the $HIMS team will need to overcome to justify a retracement of their recent 52-week high. You can find all of this information via the 12-page PDF download link below. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1822640704641782187) 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A short snippet from our research published on Sunday regarding $HIMS marketing in relation to subscriber growth "Ive noticed that the cost of acquiring net subscribers is trending higher over the last five quarters versus the prior five."" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1823397076534981035) 2024-08-13T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@gmc_thoughts Not a core part of the business. Buffet-style dining is not meant to compete with grab-and-go. It's a value play not a time-saving play" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1828473068294918570) 2024-08-27T16:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to carry the burden of total costs even as they might outweigh the savings from treating these conditions Commentary from $GS research $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828476102395748719) 2024-08-27T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""A recentsurveyconducted in late May of this year shows that just 34% of United States employer health plans offer coverage of GLP-1 drugs for both diabetes management and weight loss." $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to carry the burden of total costs even as they might outweigh the savings from treating these conditions Commentary from $GS research $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO https://t.co/46DDRjLKQS Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1829863939842457964) 2024-08-31T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With $HIMS making a move to improve retention of its patient base offering longer duration plans at a discount while improving LTV You can't recognize that full revenue upfront. It becomes deferred revenue. The trend supports that more $HIMS patients are signing up beyond 1Q" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1831338865145036817) 2024-09-04T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Shared our updated thoughts on the $TPR / $CPRI M&A arb deal that's going to court this week. We share our notes on [--] different documents as well as the presumed $CPRI break price should the deal fall apart. (1/2) See thread" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1832755872197411264) 2024-09-08T12:20Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements "Just released our updated thoughts on Mama's Creations $MAMA after their Q2'25 earnings last week. We feel that the negatives in that print were very short-term in nature which has allowed investors to take advantage of near-term price swings. Still very bullish on the future" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1836761771459203362) 2024-09-19T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We believe that most of the pullback was due to [--]. No SRR announcement [--]. The bridge financing and warrant issuance with Lind [--]. Confusion in financials given manufacturing shift from Teal [--] to Teal [--] along with moving from an April FYE to a CYE 2/3 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1839310386354598408) 2024-09-26T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "While the news was not what investors hoped for we think there are come clues to the optimism that Jeff has with winning the deal not to mention rumors going around that Skydio did not win SRR. We break down our thoughts and new math below. 3/3 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1839310389148004460) 2024-09-26T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And just like that Sima (CEO) is out at $WW Can't knock her for trying. Still believe she was doing the right thing with GLP-1s but failed to get the traction she was hoping for. Was only a matter of time. $WW has generally good intentions but failed at reinvigorating the core business and slowing it's decline. GLP-1s might be too little too late. Best and only short report of [----]. Down 80%. https://t.co/ekvbNZjbh4 Was only a matter of time. $WW has generally good intentions but failed at reinvigorating the core business and slowing it's decline. GLP-1s might be too little too late. Best and" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1839641168918819001) 2024-09-27T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In Q3 [----] Cedar Grove Capital (CGC) returned 8.2% return compared to 5.8% for the S&P [---]. We've sized up a number of positions and share select position commentary $CPRI $RCAT $LULU Pleased with the results. Click the link to access. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q324-cgc-quarterly-letter https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q324-cgc-quarterly-letter" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1842941273306714567) 2024-10-06T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Really good article out today from @Bloomberg regarding the dire situation Europe has put itself in concerning fighting the next war. It flows into our article from April about betting on defense contractors. It's paywalled but sharing images and snippets below for you 👇🏼 1/ Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC https://t.co/RpnM4GHmaG Newest post is out now on" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1846573789074641166) 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "4/ "NATOs members agreed in [----] that they would each be spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense by [----]. About [--] out of [--] allies are expected to hit the target up from just [--] countries last year."" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1846573794372047121) 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5/ The UK France are other military powers but both have slashed troop numbers since the Cold War. Frances active armed forces shrank by 56% between [----] and [----]. Britain's army will be reduced to 73k soldiers by [----] the lowest level since the Napoleonic wars of 18031815" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1846573796037148829) 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "6/ Germany could possibly deploy one brigade numbering a few thousand soldiers. France could mobilize [-----] soldiers in [--] days. The UK could at a best effort muster one division of between [-----] and [-----] soldiers. American special forces alone number around 70000" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1846573797480034582) 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Sharing our thoughts on the breaking news regarding $TPR and $CPRI Obviously we don't agree with the verdict but we share a quick note and how we're handling it going forward. https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/judge-favors-ftc-update-on-tpr-takeoverr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/judge-favors-ftc-update-on-tpr-takeoverr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1849551384946880956) 2024-10-24T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Last week $PTON released their Q1'25 earnings and the stock rose 30%. While we felt this was completely uncalled for the stock has settled back down to the mid-$7s. Here's the callout for guidance for the remainder of FY'25 from the CFO" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1853541935362769117) 2024-11-04T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS out with another stellar quarter - Accelerated growth in GLP-1s - Core (ex weight loss) reaccelerated - $30M buyback - Marketing expense continues to decline However - Reiterates compounding GLP-1s after shortage - Some problem areas are growing 🔗 below for full report" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1853786697948926313) 2024-11-05T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It's official. After yesterday's print CAVA $CAVA has officially reached $57 million in market cap per unit For a concept with 🔹352 locations 🔹 $2.7 AUV 🔹 Adj restaurant margins of 26% See how the value has changed over time with our chart below https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cava-has-officially-reached https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cava-has-officially-reached" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1856684229083509127) 2024-11-13T13:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Updated report on our Build-a-Bear $BBW long out now Just like our initial post the thesis is incredibly simple and the market is overlooking the companys emphasis on asset-light growth. Better growth margins and scale No debt net cash $100M buyback See why in next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1856752339069321642) 2024-11-13T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yesterday we published [--] new special situations that we've taken small positions in - Consumer-focused brand that might result in a strategic review - Fintech name in the payments space that is looking to sell themselves Both ideas + additional position commentary are below 👇🏽" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1858517005038477505) 2024-11-18T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just shared a quick TL;DR of our new position in Daktronics $DAKT a producer and manufacturer of LED/LCD video displays A more detailed report will be out this weekend but given recent updates about a convert and earnings Wed this will suffice 👇🏼 https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/06e2da25-dba1-47c2-a03f-873e61c5322a https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/06e2da25-dba1-47c2-a03f-873e61c5322a" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1863941556656394643) 2024-12-03T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yesterday we released our full note on why we think Daktronics $DAKT can get to $40/share (+100%) over the next few years Industry tailwinds improved governance and a focus on profitability via margin improvement can help DAKT achieve 20% LT margins See why we think so 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866109385732149703) 2024-12-09T13:15Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements "$HIMS GLP-1 shortage is on everyone's minds and we went ahead and aggregated the data from @ro's GLP-1 supply tracker over time Data utilizes web archive data for self-reported supply issues FDA removes Tirzepatide Oct [--] and the rise in supply issues is not that alarming 👇🏼 @KevOnStage I think taylor swift is (much) more talented than Beyonc @KevOnStage I think taylor swift is (much) more talented than Beyonc" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866539524400242739) 2024-12-10T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Investors in [----] are in a Prisoners Dilemma With the $SPY expecting 25% gain this year this would be just the 4th time in the past [---] years the index logged 20%-plus returns two years in a row. History is mixed on what happens next. Do you sell https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/prisoners-dilemma-when-if-to-runutm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=288391&post_id=152976990&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=gs5o7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1867565863131656473) 2024-12-13T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just released our 3rd episode of 🎙 "The Investors' Corner" with Gary Schnierow Head of Investor Relations at Build-A-Bear $BBW. In this interview we go over 🟢 The business model change of the company 🟢 Why its more than the old-school Build-A-Bear that you probably know 🟢 Its capital allocation strategy and 🟢 What the future looks like when it comes to strategic growth We're very bullish on the future of $BBW and believe that the earnings results the other week firmly cement the company's ability to deliver LT shareholder value. Take a look in the next comment" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1868690466905997643) 2024-12-16T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Come join us for an update on $HIMS Going to be going live on Twitter at 12:10pm EST. Hopefully catch people at lunch. Will discuss updates regarding $HIMS - FDA decision - GLP-1 impact(s) - Future prospect etc. Come join. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space https://t.co/SFHALa0IcB Going to be going live on Twitter at 12:10pm EST. Hopefully catch people at lunch. Will discuss updates regarding $HIMS - FDA decision - GLP-1 impact(s) - Future prospect etc. Come join. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space https://t.co/SFHALa0IcB" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1870110793057845269) 2024-12-20T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This morning we released our notes on - Recent Hims & Hers Health $HIMS news regarding the FDA and price decreases - Mama's Creations $MAMA Q3'24 earnings and - An update regarding recent portfolio changes Please find it in the next comment" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1870834106583429266) 2024-12-22T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yesterday morning we published our thoughts on the recent take-private of Soho House $SHCO for $9/share. This is not the first time $SHCO has received an offer that didn't materialize into an accepted deal. Given the r/r here we think it's worth taking a speculative bet and calling a bluff on this offer. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-betting-against-soho-house-shco https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-betting-against-soho-house-shco" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1873716704661979641) 2024-12-30T13:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just released our Q4'24 letter to subscribers. In Q4 CGC returned 21.0% compared to 2.5% for the S&P [---] and 0.3% for the Russell [----] and ended the year with a return of 38.5%. This is one of our more in-depth letters where we go over why we couldn't sell $HIMS at $35 and select position commentary for all the tickers listed below. $GTBIF $LULU $GENK $BBW $RCAT $CPRI The $HIMS trade we highlight is a learning lesson for us despite making money on that trade. You'll also find portfolio positioning sizing and returns in the below link. Looking forward to a great 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1874836015170408463) 2025-01-02T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning we released our note on why we're long Liquidia Corp $LQDA The company has been battling United Therapeutics $UTHR over the last few years to prevent Yutrepia from coming to market. Cleared to launch in May we think shares could double. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-launch-a-catalyst-for-liquidia-lqda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-launch-a-catalyst-for-liquidia-lqda" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1876651950277837111) 2025-01-07T15:27Z [----] followers, 54K engagements "2/ After being long all of last year we think the market is still not appropriately pricing in the risks associated with the Semaglutide shortage which we believe would send the stock down 20% just on the headline alone $HIMS https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1878801531103039588) 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "3/ Additionally as we've highlighted in past reports $HIMS marketing dollars per net subscriber added has continued trending upward as of the beginning of last year and stands well above its FY'22 and Q1'23 median. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1878801533044949163) 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "4/ With new $META ad policy changes taking effect this year certain health information won't be available for ad targeting which will not help the situation regarding efficient customer acquisition costs. Find our $HIMS short below https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1878801535024742796) 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just shared our recent research on a few names along with two new trade ideas. - Short $SHCO arb - Liquidia $LQDA update - Special Situation of Capri $CPRI - Special Situation of The Tile Shop $TTSH - Commentary on FDA vs OFA 1/ https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881694771212931485) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Shorting Soho House $SHCO for the arb trade Before the end of the year we highlighted why we thought the take-private offer of $SHCO was not realistic. Below we highlight the financial reasoning behind why it seems unlikely to happen. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1881694773951746269) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Liquidia $LQDA has been an interesting play considering how it's highlighted the messy relationship when the FDA gets into bed with big pharma. Recent INSPIRE study results make us even more bullish than before. Still think it's a 2x from here. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1881694775537258946) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "4/ While the arb trade failed last year with Capri $CPRI the company being open to selling its Jimmy Choo and Versace assets brings new life to the trade We think being open to selling was the 1st hurdle now we outline the potential return (+28 - 42%) https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1881694777302986984) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "5/ @ToffCap first highlighted The Tile Shop $TTSH institutional buying from Fund [--] Investments yesterday Fund [--] has been very active recently with $DXLG and $VRA. See why we think it's similar to our $SNBR trade that returned +50% in two weeks last year https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1881694778896855289) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Lastly we provided quick thoughts on the recent FDA decision to allow Tirzepatide compounding while the ongoing litigation with OFA continues We're very puzzled by this decision and briefly highlight what that means for $HIMS w/ Semaglutide shortage https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1881694780427735344) 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Over the weekend we shared our notes from an expert call with a current lawyer regarding the GLP-1 shortage. The Expert has over [--] yrs of experience with [--] of those being at the FDA handling regulation. $WW $HIMS $NVO $LLY $LFMD In our notes we summarize their thoughts on a few categories including the current state of the compounding industry around these drugs as well as when they think it could be coming off and what would trigger it. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-fda-lawyers-thoughts-on-the-glp-1-shortage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1886400876744466901) 2025-02-03T13:06Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "This morning we released our post-Q4'24 commentary on $HIMS. Lots of developments over the last week alone but what is troubling with the earnings call is how much it appeared to be smoke and mirrors. Semaglutide off shortage confusing EC language intention to continue pushing personalized GLP-1s new definition of "core" and the possibility of $NVO suing for IP theft sets up FY'25 for another volatile year. In our 20-page report we break down our issues with their new "weight loss" guidance push of personalized GLP-1s going forward and other noteworthy information. Based on our skepticism" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896582783746592879) 2025-03-03T15:25Z [----] followers, 54.6K engagements "This morning we released our post-earnings take on a few names ( $LNSR / $OWLT / $GENK / $DAKT) along with a very brief update on $SHCO. Some names we're still bullish on while others left us confused. Can find it in the usual place. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/earnings-update-lnsr-owlt-genk-dakt https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/earnings-update-lnsr-owlt-genk-dakt" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1899502246133453261) 2025-03-11T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In the spirit of keeping up with calling out questionable $HIMS management decisions we've carved out a page highlighting the consistent dumping of shares from insiders on investors. If they're so bullish for the future why do they continue to heavily sell Perfect reason not to sandbag guidance so they can continue dumping.like yesterday. This morning we released our post-Q4'24 commentary on $HIMS. Lots of developments over the last week alone but what is troubling with the earnings call is how much it appeared to be smoke and mirrors. Semaglutide off shortage confusing EC language intention" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900601098571784287) 2025-03-14T17:33Z [----] followers, 20.5K engagements "This morning we shared an update on the Capri $CPRI divestment of the Versace trade idea as well as a brief Build-A-Bear $BBW post-earnings opportunity and a quick $HIMS trade idea. - $CPRI reorg makes us believe the deal is alive - $BBW earnings retracement presents an opportunity for buyers who might have missed out last year - $HIMS trade idea is for anyone looking for short exposure should the opportunity present itself https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cpri-divestment-bbw-earnings-hims-trade https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cpri-divestment-bbw-earnings-hims-trade" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1902375249360085059) 2025-03-19T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just sent out an open letter to all Lensar $LNSR shareholders regarding the news this morning about the Alcon $ALC takeover announcement. We believe that the $14/share cash offer + $2.75/share consideration grossly undervalues the company. We urge Lensar shareholders to vote no on this takeover offer and make management come back to the table with a better deal or remain a public company. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/open-letter-lensar-lnsr-shareholders-should-reject-alc-offer https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/open-letter-lensar-lnsr-shareholders-should-reject-alc-offer" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1904220450756182487) 2025-03-24T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Released our notes from the Capital Forum call the other week about the legal landscape for GLP-1 compounding and how it relates to the Hims $HIMS strategy in a post-shortage world - Viability - Legality - IP Suits Free to read for all those interested https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-notes-from-capital-forums-glp-1-intellectual-property-conversation-hims https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-notes-from-capital-forums-glp-1-intellectual-property-conversation-hims" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1904558125761339411) 2025-03-25T15:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Looks like Prada is close to signing for the acquisition of both Versace and Jimmy Choo from Capri $CPRI for [---] billion. Hard to quantify the math here but pre-tariff announcement we did share a note on the value which did not factor in a re-rating. https://uk.style.yahoo.com/prada-nearing-deal-versace-jimmy-180429035.htmlguce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALv3vhq5e7sCA2K9oh_kfOOPl_bQifr76jHgImzPdNLJsUGj5Eo60gG5iKLi0YgeDyop8i-ErewpNwobK3bo2nJERQ1RdQBqWcNUA-zm4YWf2H7Er5ghjXbVnEhI6OK0rjIMlNEUvm4mHf3Jhs7VnYtZzY5i-no5_b2wO7R_u52L&guccounter=2" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1907864069161283729) 2025-04-03T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yesterday morning we released an update on the Capri $CPRI divestment trade of Versace While we were correct on the sale the market overshadowed by tariff news did not reward holders See why we still think new investors can get a solid 25% return https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/market-ignores-cpri-divestment-an https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/market-ignores-cpri-divestment-an" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911792597451817110) 2025-04-14T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sent this am we are long The RealReal $REAL TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realreal-real-a-misunderstood-tariff-beneficiary https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realreal-real-a-misunderstood-tariff-beneficiary" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912872138710671404) 2025-04-17T14:13Z [----] followers, 31.8K engagements "We profiled our RealReal $REAL long position on April 17th. Up until earnings the stock rose 35%. Friday they announced Q1'25 earnings and the stock sold off 30%. Frankly we had no idea why and added to our position. Below are our notes and why the market might have been spooked from the results even though they shouldn't have been. +17% since then. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/real-q125-earnings-shows-oversold-reversal Sent this am we are long The RealReal $REAL TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs We" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922677353441898854) 2025-05-14T15:36Z [----] followers, 13K engagements "Just released our newest report on the DICK's Sporting Goods $DKS acquisition of Foot Locker $FL At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-dks-buys-flutm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=288391&post_id=163873522&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=gs5o7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924539468947628252) 2025-05-19T18:55Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements "Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround what we liked/disliked and discussed our views for the company going forward. We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-pton-sail-again-walex-morris https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-pton-sail-again-walex-morris" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930260457459175664) 2025-06-04T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A follow up for why we said that the recent $HIMS retention claim is misleading. Based on Gleason data published in May [----] patients on Wegovy had a 70% retention rate at the end of three months and didn't dip below 60% until after [--] months 👇🏽 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-another-misleading-glp-1-pr-claim https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-another-misleading-glp-1-pr-claim" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1934969235383414807) 2025-06-17T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$WW formally entering the fray with menopause treatments and taking ads to a different level with Queen Latifa. All part of the rebrand as a leaner more relatable company to consumers searching for help. Will be interesting to see the response from consumers. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1965051506820096339) 2025-09-08T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "https://www.wsj.com/articles/weightwatchers-attempts-comeback-with-menopause-treatments-and-steamy-ads-480c6cd7gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhDe5RnuE-PgXyrMZiK4R5sPAZWz8JVkE2BmtCQtg0vrNGxmjSnFUDQm9FR7Ps%3D&gaa_ts=68bed913&gaa_sig=6v7iiCnec-HURbQINaVAycMnm-bMuu6gsjGNEK9Mv_wMZzIhIdhqGmtac9xhph8U2ZPbj3SFPZFTzOu-ih66Lw%3D%3D" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1965051545004986712) 2025-09-08T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$INPST reported Q2'24 earnings and is absolutely continuing to crush business execution. - Excellent expansion of FCF conversion - Massive jump in parcel volume - Penetration in emerging geos (UK + Italy) playing out nicely Was fortunate to size up over the last [--] months +12% Just disclosed a starter position in a new name that just happens to be my first investment overseas. "The company has grown sales at an annual CAGR of 53.2% from [----] to [----] and shows promising signs that the same level of growth can continue." Without diving into detail I Just disclosed a starter position in a new" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1832037416070230210) 2024-09-06T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yesterday we released our research on the newly completed IPO KinderCare Learning Centers $KLC The company operates in the early childhood education space. Despite improved financials and profitability there's more to not like than like. PASS Get the link via @cedargrovecm" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1848341721685299208) 2024-10-21T12:33Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our viewpoints on key headwinds the company faces going into earnings tomorrow. Key issues: - Commodity inflation - Labor shortage - Consumer spending All get addressed below https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-outr=gs5o7&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-outr=gs5o7&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1519355689612812289) 2022-04-27T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What a pop on $DPZ up 10% right now on not as bad of earnings as the market thought We wrote our initial post on them on April [--] and called for a soft 1H and rebound in 2H'22. So far we're right but we'll see if Q4'22 holds up to our long thesis #cheap https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-out#details https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-out#details" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1580534867523440645) 2022-10-13T12:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As mentioned yesterday there's not really a play here unless you want to take on that risk Since going public the stock is down 97% and the market cap is a mere $37 million. A fraction of the $1.2 billion valuation at IPO However we believe $RENT is headed toward ch. [--] 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1741854900542157297) 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Noted in the first tweet expensive logistics made it hard for the company to make money. Shipping merchandise to and from customers is expensive let alone paying for the warehouses staff and inventory that changes. This is why $RENT has NEVER made money in their history 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1741854902622581207) 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Capri $CPRI / Tapestry $TPR was cleared by the Chinese SAMR As we mentioned in our below post the likelihood of them saying "no" did not match against numerous precedents. Now onto the other commissions. https://www.samr.gov.cn/fldes/ajgs/wtjjz/art/2024/art_72fb6a2d138a4480a80a64e26a5564b4.html Taking a look at the Tapestry $TPR and Capri $CPRI deal it's very puzzling why the spread is still so large. Below we've gone over the bigger points on what might derail this deal from happening. Have a look below and let us know what you think. Did we miss anything https://t.co/rriZF7W6lT" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1745067800341696908) 2024-01-10T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Going to be releasing my Domino's Pizza $DPZ update tomorrow morning at 8am EST. Will be going over what's gone right and why looking forward the return isn't worth the risk after the run-up. Link in bio to receive. '24E model update included. In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with a '23 target of $460 ($16.43 @ 28x) and NT downside risk of $304 Funny enough it bottomed in '22 at $310 and closed '23 at $411 hitting $460 3M later My next update will be on DPZ after its 40% 6M return Link in bio https://t.co/zmRNyCc8IQ In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781397896501358935) 2024-04-19T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Out with my recent update on Domino's Pizza $DPZ. After a stellar 42% run-up since [----] lots of management's initiatives to combat labor shortages and inflation have worked out. At 30x NTM P/E this stock seems fairly priced and not worth the risk atm C Y Link in next tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1781671239641125347) 2024-04-20T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Out with our most recent research on LENSAR $LNSR a micro-cap medical devices company that assists ophthalmic surgeons with cataract surgery. A few recent catalysts have materialized leading to a run-up in price in late [----]. Growing procedural market share no debt breakeven adj. EBITDA with inflecting positive cash flow see why we think there's more to come. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/lnsr-lensar-upside-into-global-clearance https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/lnsr-lensar-upside-into-global-clearance" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894020863839596645) 2025-02-24T13:45Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements "Just sent paid subs out quick note on how we moved on OneSpaWorld $OSW with just a few hours of research. This mainly stemmed from a mis-priced asset getting thrown out with the bathwater which presented a great r/r opportunity. Find it in the usual place" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1948026995465461826) 2025-07-23T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our recent article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research. It highlights that markets are quick to throw the baby out with the bathwater due to misunderstandings about the company. This mismatch allows investors to seize the opportunity to deliver better risk-adjusted returns. Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at. Take a look below for free. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misunderstandings-create-opportunities-osw" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1949843806972436626) 2025-07-28T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it. Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16% right now. Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work. This morning we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research on. Those updates are as follows - Soho House $SHCO - LENSAR $LNSR - Liquidia $LQDA - Capri $CPRI - GEN Restaurant $GENK - DICK'S Sportng Goods $DKS/ $FL - https://t.co/IJBMtpzcHL This morning we sent around" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953089238964052326) 2025-08-06T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Looks like Soho House $SHCO will be taken private at $9/share with MCR buying out the remaining outstanding shares. Management + Ron Burkle will be rolling over their equity. This deal seems to be different than the one announced [--] months ago and does not pertain to the deal we arbed earlier in the year. There doesn't seem to be a play here given the legitimacy of the deal (Apollo financing) but goes to show how you can drag a narrative around until something hopefully clicks. This morning we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957402551273296221) 2025-08-18T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This AM we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. We previously shorted $WW in Jan'24 and we think that at just 4.6x FY'26 EBITDA material upside risk exists post-BK. Have a look below for the key points and link to the report. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-situation-betting-on-ww-post https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-situation-betting-on-ww-post" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959988920789176340) 2025-08-25T14:39Z [----] followers, 44.2K engagements "On Monday we sent around our 1-pager + work from @TenvaCapital regarding our separate positions in Sanuwave Health $SNWV Jesse (Founder of Tenva) has written great work to break down the company and the opportunity. We think SNWV is in its early innings of a multi-year disruption in the wound care space. Take a look below to read Jesse's work. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/snwv-a-med-devices-co-in-its-early https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/snwv-a-med-devices-co-in-its-early" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1970858839042830677) 2025-09-24T14:32Z [----] followers, 23K engagements "We sent out our original note on the $WW turnaround post-BK back in August but it's become very apparent that not many people understand the upside here. The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple we're looking at $25/share of equity value just from deleveraging. Factor in the market catching wind and there could be a path for $WW to triple off the current levels. See our credit agreement explanation and math below. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ww-the-value-unlock-is-in-the-credit-agreement" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1980664048602476892) 2025-10-21T15:54Z [----] followers, 29.6K engagements "While we sent around our note yesterday on $WW to explain the credit agreement and how it alone unlocks value don't underestimate comorbidities. In the post below we attached this image that shows why weight loss is such a big deal and why the leader in weight loss (WW) is best positioned for cross-sell opportunities like they recently did with menopause. An over [--] million subscriber base whose sole purpose is to lose weight via their platform. Talk about levers to pull" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1980995504365314049) 2025-10-22T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning we released part [--] of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes. $REAL crossed the 3x line and we're pleased by the results. $KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week $SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes $LNSR arb is iffy Find it in the usual place https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-quick-earnings-updates-part-ii-real-kits-snwv-lnsr https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-quick-earnings-updates-part-ii-real-kits-snwv-lnsr" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1988994938135065075) 2025-11-13T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🎙 IC #7 out now. We had the pleasure of speaking with David Helderman Director of Investor Relations at WW International $WW We talk about $WW before and after bankruptcy and how investors should think about the new slimmed-down version going forward. Find it in the usual place. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-7-a-phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes-talking-weight-watchers-ww-post-bankruptcy https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-7-a-phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes-talking-weight-watchers-ww-post-bankruptcy" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1995868006589538686) 2025-12-02T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning we sent out a new report on thematic investment that revolved around one word: FEAR. Fear became our driving force for our long thesis into Owlet $OWLT which as of yesterday is up 226% since we pitched it back on Oct [--] [----] and another 6% today alone. See part [--] of a two-part series below where we introduce the concept of investing based on fear and an update on $OWLT after the run-up that it's had so far. We're eager to share part two with you all later in the month which coincides with the same fear-based theme. Enjoy" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1998445415260168518) 2025-12-09T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This AM we released our most recent notes for part [--] on our "Fear-based" investing theme. Similar to what made us invest in $OWLT (+261% since) we believe that Evolv $EVLV makes for a compelling long-term opportunity to capture more market share in the weapons screening space. See why below. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based-investing-part-2-future-of-weapons-screening https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based-investing-part-2-future-of-weapons-screening" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/2008193524315881560) 2026-01-05T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lots of headlines have been coming out about the declining prices of mined diamonds v lab-grown While visually chemically and physically identical to a natural diamond lab-created diamonds can cost up to 85% less See why the market for LG diamonds is just heating up 👇🏼 $SIG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1701940246500286912) 2023-09-13T12:45Z [----] followers, 327.1K engagements "Wild the divergence of fitness names of Xponential Fitness $XPOF and F45 $FXLV One was a name that we went long on in [----] and the other was one we ultimately cut (before tanking) and backed by Mark Wahlberg Market cap went from $1.6B to just $2M (MILLION) in under [--] yrs" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1711353551555825760) 2023-10-09T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Going to be sharing updated thoughts on GEN Restaurant Group $GENK tomorrow post Q2 earnings the other week. Link in bio to receive" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1828469167843930232) 2024-08-27T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just released our updated thoughts on GEN Restaurant Group $GENK post their Q2'24 earnings release. Despite a 24% drawdown since our initial post we have even higher conviction in the name after digesting Q2 earnings. See why below. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-proving-to-be https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-proving-to-be" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828775551651438970) 2024-08-28T12:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just shared a quick update on our largest position GEN Restaurant $GENK for paid investors. Briefly go over new unit build developments the impact from such and then the new(ish) Hibachi venture in CA. Link in bio to check out" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1850956633662276051) 2024-10-28T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yesterday we shared our notes for both Owlet $OWLT and GEN Restaurant $GENK regarding their Q3'24 earnings. Each in their respective ways did have some positives in a turbulent sea of negatives. However we remain the course and share why. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/update-going-over-genk-and-owlt-q324-earnings https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/update-going-over-genk-and-owlt-q324-earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1861047697815330919) 2024-11-25T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yesterday we released a podcast overview of the ParkerVision $PRKR special situation. It's an entertaining one referencing the original research from [--] Main Capital. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-2-diving-into-the-parkervision-qcom-litigation https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-2-diving-into-the-parkervision-qcom-litigation" [X Link](https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1863591702696776076) 2024-12-02T14:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yesterday we sent a report on Hims and Hers Health $HIMS explaining why we are now short the company. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878801528238260565) 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, 90.6K engagements "This morning we shared a 🚩 Alert on GEN Restaurant $GENK initially spotted by @realLigerCub. There seems to be some misleading or selectively omitted context around historical unit closures that raises additional flags with management. With trust being an important factor in holding this name recent resignation of the Co-CEO and slow unit openings in Q4 we've exited this trade. Can read about the decision and findings below. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/alert-on-gen-restaurant-group-genk https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/alert-on-gen-restaurant-group-genk" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887895137327726909) 2025-02-07T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning we released an updated report on $HIMS reiterating our short thesis. Recently obtained credit card data through the end of last week suggests that $HIMS growth is massively over-indexing to GLP-1s more than previously thought. This would hint at a significant deceleration of core business growth should the over-indexing be true paving the way for a harder fall once the shortage ends. Our findings from recent prime brokerage data also suggest that a large portion of the shares sold short have been covered over the last two weeks suggesting that little fire remains for a prolonged" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1891842285945397365) 2025-02-18T13:28Z [----] followers, 90.3K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@cedargrovecm Cedar Grove Capital Management
Cedar Grove Capital Management posts on X about $hims, in the, hims, $cpri the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] -92%
- [--] Month [------] -74%
- [--] Months [-------] +58%
- [--] Year [-------] +22%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -17%
- [--] Months [--] +7.10%
- [--] Year [--] -60%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.66%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +34%
- [--] Year [-----] +87%
CreatorRank: undefined #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies technology brands social networks fashion brands luxury brands countries currencies celebrities
Social topic influence $hims, in the, hims, $cpri, market, company, $tpr, ipo, $ww, $genk
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joinyellowbrick @wagiecapital @sankatyhead @yiqinsh @bobvh33 @mamamootwits @chrisrinvesting @bbslznd @wsj @ros @kevonstage @tsohinvesting @realligercub @paulcerro @fiveguyschase @patconnolly @vestager @amazon @eucommission @reuters
Top assets mentioned Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW) GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. (GENK) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Limitus (LMT) WOOF (WOOF) Soho House & Co Inc (SHCO) Liquidia Corporation Common Stock (LQDA) Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX) Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTON) DarkShield Games Studio (DKS) Foot Locker, Inc. (FL) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Interactive Strength, Inc. (TRNR) Boeing Co (BA) Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT) GammaSwap (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Notable tidbit here on growth rates in the pet space regarding online traffic. $BARK $WOOF $CHWY $PETS"
X Link 2022-05-02T13:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"For Petco and Chewy investors this is why we have a problem when the market favors the latter over the former Looking at a business foundation Petco offers more than Chewy currently does or even can offer Financially Petco is doing much better and IS profitable $WOOF $CHWY"
X Link 2022-06-29T14:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"We outlined why on a business level Petco $WOOF makes more sense than Chewy $CHWY The latter is inherently limited to what business goods/services it can offer. With almost $10B in sales CHWY still cannot generate profitability or meaningful FCF. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/why-petco-is-a-better-roi-than-chewy#details https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/why-petco-is-a-better-roi-than-chewy#details"
X Link 2022-09-27T12:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting view for $UBER and $DASH"
X Link 2023-02-26T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Friendly reminder that $CHWY active customer base is plateauing while Petco $WOOF has been doing great in adding more members to its flywheel Petco Q3'21 - 23.3M Q4'21 - 24.1M Q1'22 - 24.4M Q2'22 - 24.7M Q3'22 - 25M See our original thoughts on which is better in the next tweet"
X Link 2023-02-26T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"6 straight Qs of active customer growth (since they started reporting) Petco Q3'21 - 23.3M Q4'21 - 24.1M Q1'22 - 24.4M Q2'22 - 24.7M Q3'22 - 25M $WOOF has added [---] million active customers since they started reporting the metric in Q3'21"
X Link 2023-03-22T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Take a look at our M&A arb update part II for $MSFT and $ATVI below. Includes recap of issues raised by Lina Khan of the FTC rebuttals that disprove anti-trust concerns and our updated trade structure that has a bit on an insurance policy. Link in the next tweet. Enjoy"
X Link 2023-04-24T00:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just published our monthly update for CGC. Since our Q123 update we have - Added [--] net new positions - Resized [--] positions - Exited [--] positions - Traded [--] positions We also gave two updates in the beginning around $TRNR and the $MSFT / $ATVI trade. Link in next tweet"
X Link 2023-05-06T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just released our notes on Xponential Fitness $XPOF and Peloton $PTON recent earnings. TL;DR - XPOF still seeing strength in consumer spending and KPI continue to crush - PTON slows the bleeding but CF subs under pressure and are guiding down Link in next tweet 👇🏼"
X Link 2023-05-15T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just published our thoughts on the hot GLP-1 market. - What they are - How they work - The issues of the drug/industry - What we think the bottom line is Enjoy $PFE $SNY $AZN $NVO $LLY https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/glp-1s-effective-but-with-a-catch https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/glp-1s-effective-but-with-a-catch"
X Link 2023-07-10T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@FiveGuysChase Where do you see $40 generic Epi-pens don't even go for $40 yet you're saying GLP-1 injectables will Source"
X Link 2023-07-11T03:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
""Connected Fitness is the Future" $PTON $TRNR https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ipo-notes-interactive-strength-trnr https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/pton-a-zero-or-hero#details https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ipo-notes-interactive-strength-trnr https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/pton-a-zero-or-hero#details"
X Link 2023-08-26T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PTON Peloton reported earnings last week and the results were very disappointing. The stock sold off 30% in PM and recovered slightly by EoD The company has increased its churn lowered margins and its balance sheet is looking tight. See my updated thoughts in the next tweet"
X Link 2023-08-27T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The returns of defense contractors are quite interesting when you zoom out during different periods of "conflict" 5yr 10yr 20yr All-time $SPY $BA $NOC $LMT $RTX $GD"
X Link 2023-08-28T12:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I've been looking into an IPO that just went live today called Inspire Veterinary Partners $IVP They're a veterinary care roll-up who decided to go public to raise funds to acquire more businesses and allow insiders to sell Below is a thread about the IVP and why I passed 1/"
X Link 2023-08-30T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ IVP was looking to IPO between $4 - $6/share with [---] million shares raising potentially $8 million The IPO priced at $4 full [---] million shares but then opened at $3.75 only to close down to $3.07 but not before it reached an intraday low of $2.26"
X Link 2023-08-30T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"9/ 🚩#1 While the company was looking to sell [---] million shares in the IPO insiders were also looking to offload another [----] million shares [---] days after the IPO closes This opens the door for massive dilution and downward pressure on the stock"
X Link 2023-08-30T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"VERY interesting takeaway from the Dexcom $DXCM investor presentation. GLP-1 and CGM use can love in harmony once treatment starts. Dexcom data suggests that CGM usage can be nearly 4x depending on the type of patient undergoing treatment. $NVO"
X Link 2023-09-06T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Return on Capital for defense stocks aren't all created equal $LMT $NOC $RTX $BA"
X Link 2023-09-07T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stable growth in defense and international arms build-up means that shareholders have done well holding onto $LMT over the years"
X Link 2023-09-07T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Shares outstanding for the following names have decreased by nearly half over the last 20yrs $LMT $NOC $GD"
X Link 2023-09-07T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@_Pat_Connolly Thinking too simply. That's why I labeled at the end that there's going to be two divisions of status. The ones that can afford a "mined" diamond and those that choose not too. Almost like getting a coach purse vs an LVMH purse"
X Link 2023-09-13T16:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"It's incredibly fascinating to see how the thematic pet trade has played out YTD A market that was - treating them like children - sticky consumables/wellness - massive pull forward This is a taste of thoughts we'll share over the next week or so $WOOF $CHWY $PET $TRUP $ROVR"
X Link 2023-10-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just released our Q3'23 letter. In Q3 [----] Cedar Grove Capital Management returned 16.3% gross return compared to -3.7% for the S&P [---]. Take a look at our positions market commentary and portfolio thoughts in the next tweet"
X Link 2023-10-09T00:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Since the terrorist attack on Israel over [--] weeks ago US defense contractors have risen sharply This has fit into our published thoughts last month on increasing geopolitical tension instability and de-globalization This will only get worse in the future $LMT $NOC $RTX $GD"
X Link 2023-10-25T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Absolutely brutal when you think about where $ELF and $EL sit on which side of makeup 5-Year Return e.l.f: +807% Estee Lauder: -16% Don't always play down an underdog"
X Link 2023-11-02T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Apollo believes we're entering a new default cycle and the numbers are pretty alarming. Maturities coming due very soon with new rates in the double digits. Bankruptcies climbing. Default among general loans and HY rising very quickly. People really counting on a rate cut"
X Link 2023-11-29T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's all about perspective and how you perceive war to continue into the future $LMT"
X Link 2023-12-03T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Taking a look at the Tapestry $TPR and Capri $CPRI deal it's very puzzling why the spread is still so large. Below we've gone over the bigger points on what might derail this deal from happening. Have a look below and let us know what you think. Did we miss anything"
X Link 2023-12-07T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We've officially exited our Weight Watchers $WW short position this morning. The hype surrounding GLP-1s led to its unjustified rise despite high leverage and little progress in their pivot thus the market re-corrected the name. Stay tuned for a post-mortem write-up on our site"
X Link 2023-12-13T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We've officially exited our Interactive Strength $TRNR short position. Our thesis proved true back when we highlighted the flawed business as it was going public back in February. Given connected fitness like Tonal TRNR might not survive long Link:"
X Link 2023-12-14T14:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays We're sharing our thoughts on tomorrow morning's Amazon $AMZN / iRobot $IRBT M&A deal. Subscribe via the link in our bio to get it at 8am EST. Enjoy"
X Link 2023-12-25T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We're [--] months into the Amazon $AMZN / iRobot $IRBT acquisition [--] Commission has already signed off (UK) [--] will have a decision by Feb [--] (EU) [--] is still floating in the wind (FTC) Given the current spread the arb looks tempting. Have a look at why we think so. Link in bio"
X Link 2023-12-26T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mamamootwits such as"
X Link 2023-12-26T14:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mamamootwits @vestager @amazon @EU_Commission What does this have anything to do with pets Did you mean to comment on the iRobot post"
X Link 2023-12-26T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"At least [--] firms that went public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs went bankrupt this year. Measured from their peak market capitalizations the insolvencies bookend the loss of more than $46 billion of total equity value"
X Link 2023-12-31T13:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Back in [----] Rent The Runway $RENT announced a $125 million investment which propelled it to unicorn status. In theory renting the hottest fashion instead of buying made sense the problem was two-fold - expensive logistics and COVID. We believe there's no recovery coming. 1/ Going to share thoughts on a clothing retailer tomorrow that I believe will go bankrupt. While I won't be making a play on it given its current status it's still interesting considering the hype surrounding it. Make sure to check it out tomorrow via @cedargrovecm Any guesses https://t.co/wgT5HYYqiz Going to share thoughts"
X Link 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to help customers lose weight was anything but realistic from the start and it has taken investors for a ride." See why we inevitably decided to short this GLP-1 trade below"
X Link 2024-01-15T16:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@WagieCapital Bull thesis never held the weight that the markets were pricing in to begin with. $LLY launching their own telehealth offering for a drug is far from anything new. Pharma does this from time to time not to mention they aren't the only ones who offer GLP-1s. Typically their 1/"
X Link 2024-01-18T16:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@WagieCapital Platforms are pretty inferior to other companies platforms that include more holistic solutions treatment and support. $NVO the other player in the space (obviously) but $LLY offering doesn't give discounts which gets very expensive. While I agree it was a bang to $WW it 2/"
X Link 2024-01-18T16:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@WagieCapital The stock was already coming down from the above $13/share reached at the tail end of summer which is how we locked in our gain Excluding $LLY news which doesn't help with insurance to our understanding the pivot was going to be a costly one. More than what made sense 3/3"
X Link 2024-01-18T16:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting call-out on $LLY "Lilly's valuation leaves no room for error. The current share price implies that Lilly will sell around $70B worth of Zepbound in [----]. In our view the market is overly optimistic. - $GS" GS thinks $35B by then. Humira peaked @ $21B in '22"
X Link 2024-01-28T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As we've said before geopolitical tensions will continue to fuel demand for military armaments vehicles and equipment "Sales of U.S. military equipment to foreign governments in [----] rose 16% to a record $238 billion." @Reuters $LMT $RTX $NOC $GD"
X Link 2024-01-30T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChrisRinvesting Too much uncertainty with government and policies that could affect how the business is able to operate there. Tariffs trade tensions a slowing economy a stock market getting propped"
X Link 2024-02-01T03:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ChrisRinvesting The consortium was responsible for 65% of the shares bought in this offering. Demand is lackluster"
X Link 2024-02-01T03:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Amer Sports $AS prices at $13 (below $16 min) opens at $13.40 and closes @ $13.45. Clearly barely anyone wanted this IPO"
X Link 2024-02-01T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I shared my thoughts on [--] IPOs that I previously wrote about last year and why I passed on them (both down 90% - $TRNR $IVP) Additionally I also shared my notes on [--] Arb trades as a result of iRobot $IRBT deal falling apart ( $CPRI & $ACI). Lmk your thoughts via link in bio"
X Link 2024-02-12T22:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@bbslznd There are antitrust provisions in the deal but just because FTC sues doesn't immediately mean $TPR can back out. It's only if FTC wins or if both parties agree that no path to deal completion is likely. This is also the same FTC that allowed Kors to buy Jimmy Choo and Versace"
X Link 2024-02-13T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bbslznd And allowed $TPR to buy Stuart Weitzman and Kate Spade"
X Link 2024-02-13T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Too much of Amer Sports $AS float is controlled by insiders. Just look at today's price movements as an example. We're talking hundreds of shares at a time for each bar you see. For a $7 billion market cap company you'd expect more movement"
X Link 2024-02-14T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The downside for regional banks with CRE exposure is far from over. Yea it gets way more interesting Among five of the largest states with the most office property transactions namely California Florida New York Illinois and Arizona there has been a consistently large uptick in the percentage of office properties sold at a loss in Q3. https://t.co/PLHZwlV8qq Yea it gets way more interesting Among five of the largest states with the most office property transactions namely California Florida New York Illinois and Arizona there has been a consistently large uptick in the percentage of office"
X Link 2024-02-21T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"CRE might be the bubble to burst in the next year or so. $NYCB has seen it's stock decline 55% YTD. Take a look at how much CRE maturity is due over the next two years and who are the most exposed"
X Link 2024-02-24T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@GavinEzekowitz We're almost a year in from the completion of the acquisition of Sequence. I will give her that the [-----] clinical subscribers was better than what I ad by a multiple of 3x. However you have to remember that $16M in cash is going out the door in [---] months as part of deal"
X Link 2024-02-28T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Many do not see the dire need for NATO countries to boost military spending. China Russia and Iran have all seen significant increases in defense budgets with Russia surpassing the US over the last decade. $LMT $GD $RTX $NOC"
X Link 2024-03-17T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Going to be releasing a new post tomorrow on an interesting IPO. Upon hitting the market it should be of micro-cap size for investors who like that size. An IPO I'm seriously considering buying when it goes public. Sign up below to get it for free"
X Link 2024-03-19T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Given their ER yesterday Chewy $CHWY has had [--] straight quarters of active customer declines Peaking in Q4'21 with [------] million and now down to [------] million as of FY'23 An industry I was once bullish on pets has been a hard one to own. Despite no debt still not convinced"
X Link 2024-03-21T12:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deal probability for Tapestry $TPR to complete its deal with Capri $CPRI has dropped dramatically over the last few months standing at just under 50%. It's frustrating I know. I revisited key past points and new updates in my most recent note. Go to next tweet to check it out"
X Link 2024-03-25T12:41Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/arb-update-the-frustrating-cpri-tpr-deal https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/arb-update-the-frustrating-cpri-tpr-deal"
X Link 2024-03-25T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@absreturnchaser Yes but they wouldn't do that. Deal break is a really weird structure but arguably favors $TPR more. Divesting a brand wouldn't make sense because each has acquired assets to strengthen their own position/image over time. I don't think that's on the table though"
X Link 2024-03-25T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MatusStraznicky The luxury slowdown was already very apparent when they went into deal negotiations last year so that wasn't really new. The rebound has just been better for $TPR vs $CPRI since November's earnings and continues in February's reports"
X Link 2024-03-25T20:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Dynamicbrands $TPR already has the debt on the BS though which I thought was a rather interesting way to handle M&A"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DL24SK No $TPR + $CPRI footwear exposure in Europe is still sub 10%. Largest area of question is really handbags because let's be real lots of affordable luxury/luxury comes from (small)leather goods and accessories I know of Bill's position but by no means am I taking that as part"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just released my Q1'24 letter. Took some bruises from the $IRBT and $SAVE deals but all else being equal pleased with the performance. Have a look at current holdings commentary and sizing. Position notes: $RH $IRBT $PTON $SAVE $MTCH $CPRI $TPR https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/q124-cgc-quarterly-letterr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/q124-cgc-quarterly-letterr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2024-04-05T12:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"A gentle reminder that Domino's $DPZ is up +20% YTD and +34% in the last [--] months on improving fundamentals Don't bet against affordable American pizza"
X Link 2024-04-07T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with a '23 target of $460 ($16.43 @ 28x) and NT downside risk of $304 Funny enough it bottomed in '22 at $310 and closed '23 at $411 hitting $460 3M later My next update will be on DPZ after its 40% 6M return Link in bio We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our viewpoints on key headwinds the company faces going into earnings tomorrow. Key issues: - Commodity inflation - Labor shortage - Consumer spending All get addressed below https://t.co/s0ZI0TDQgI We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our"
X Link 2024-04-10T00:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Incredible $RENT was up 36% today and then another 59% after reporting earnings Guidance was below estimates yet the stock rallies after it claims it will be FCF break even (about time) and there's a surge in shopper interest Post AH move all -53% YTD losses would be erased. Back in [----] Rent The Runway $RENT announced a $125 million investment which propelled it to unicorn status. In theory renting the hottest fashion instead of buying made sense the problem was two-fold - expensive logistics and COVID. We believe there's no recovery coming. 1/ https://t.co/NogqUeF4Ja Back in [----] Rent The"
X Link 2024-04-10T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Assuming break prices at $22/share and $28 depending on how bullish or not you are implied market probability is still sub 50% at the current moment $CPRI $TPR CC: @sankaty_head @yiqinsh @bobvh33"
X Link 2024-04-17T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@essential6t7 @Sankaty_Head @yiqinsh @BobVH33 Hard to place a higher multiple on declining growth. $TPR has shown that its business is turning a corner but $CPRI has yet to do so on the last two prints. Not saying it can't either but historically speaking FCF has been healthy but imagine it will be a slow ride up again"
X Link 2024-04-17T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Quite the rebound we've seen in margins for Domino's $DPZ since inflation took a toll on the business in [----]. Despite sales not surpassing FY'22 margins have either met or exceeded prior inflationary periods"
X Link 2024-04-19T12:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking toward Domino's $DPZ average U.S. unit-level EBITDA we're looking at a healthy rebound from FY'22 lows when labor shortages and food basket costs put stores under immense pressure"
X Link 2024-04-19T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Alamar Foods SAR.6014 one of a handful of Domino's $DPZ franchisees that went public in Saudi Arabia has been completely left behind since the start of December 2023"
X Link 2024-04-19T23:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/dpz-dominos-risk-reward-not-there-right-nowr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/dpz-dominos-risk-reward-not-there-right-nowr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2024-04-20T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tomorrow's post $LMT $NOC $LHX $RTX $GD $BA"
X Link 2024-04-27T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC $RTX $GD $BA $LHX 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/defense-contractors-peace-means-having https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/defense-contractors-peace-means-having"
X Link 2024-04-28T13:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the upside with GAAP EPS at $3.58 I had sales at $1.087 billion vs $1.084 billion (actual) My EPS was $3.27 mainly driven by not much margin expansion that we saw from Q1'23 vs $3.58 $DPZ saw margin improvement from food basket cost declines and higher customer transaction costs Interestingly enough I thought they'd be a little more aggressive in their buybacks modeling out $60 million in buybacks vs $25 million (actual) Great Q but my concerns are below which I also"
X Link 2024-05-02T01:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Going to be sharing our updated thoughts tomorrow on the Tapestry $TPR / Capri $CPRI deal The post will focus on the FTC complaint and going one by one on each of them. Each complaint will be followed by a rebuttal backed by data and will include at the end what we believe the chance the FTC wins based on being able to win each argument flagged. http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com"
X Link 2024-05-08T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New post is out. I shared my rebuttals to the FTC complaint against $TPR and $CPRI and went point by point as to why they were either wrong or misinformed. They say the deal will: - Hurt H2H competition ➡ False - Innovation and marketing will suffer ➡ False - Employees will lose out ➡ False - Pricing will go up ➡ False - Discounting will limit consumers' ability to buy merchandise ➡ False The FTC has overstepped its mandate while also making fools of themselves as to why they sued to block this deal All my rebuttals are backed with data and I've included at the end a summation of the "odds"
X Link 2024-05-08T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Depending on how you look at it since we know that $COST sales are up that more and more peopl are really looking for value"
X Link 2024-05-20T12:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm long GEN Restaurant Group $GENK and believe the company is in the early innings of a multi-year expansion story that has yet to be recognized by the broader market Based on my assumptions the returns could be in excess of [---] - 200% over the next few years 🔗: 1/ https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-a-multi-bagger https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-a-multi-bagger"
X Link 2024-05-22T12:21Z [----] followers, 38.4K engagements
"@ChillestTilly Not really a concern of mine. My real concern is around the execution risk of new units and the quality of each new unit. Moats in restaurants barely exist. What's $CMG's moat or $MCD Anyone can copy them and many have. The emphasis should be on the execution not the moat"
X Link 2024-05-22T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just wanted to share a quick update with you all about the research schedule. Fly-E Group ( $FLYE) an interesting IPO I researched and published earlier in the year on will be going public this Wednesday (estimated). I'll get a post out on the updated financials and final thoughts prior to IPO pricing for those of you who might be interested in this micro-cap IPO with seemingly a long runway. I'm aiming to get it out tomorrow morning for everyone. Additionally as part of the regular paid programming Hims & Hers Health ( $HIMS) will be my next long-form research post due out next Wednesday"
X Link 2024-06-03T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FLYE FLY-E Group is planning on going public tomorrow selling 3M shares between $3 - $5. I've updated my notes and commentary on the IPO and though I really wanted this to be a diamond in the rough for a micro-cap stock (+46% YoY rev growth) I've decided to pass. See why in the link below. 🔗: https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/fly-e-group-pricing-looking-a-little-richutm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=gs5o7 Released my notes on FLY-E Group's $FLYE proposed IPO. It's an interesting case considering it's local profitable founder led and owned and theoretically has a large"
X Link 2024-06-04T11:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Key to the $HIMS thesis"
X Link 2024-06-08T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS my second largest position (previously largest) officially hit the 70% return mark as of close today based on end of March investment. Tomorrow I'll be sharing my research and what I label as the 4-pillars to its (continued) success. [--] pillar I've yet to see anyone acknowledge. Looking forward to sharing with you all in the AM. 🔗: http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com"
X Link 2024-06-11T20:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sneak peek callout of tomorrow's report. "Its widely understood why $Hims entering weight loss treatment in general is a positive but you need to understand the forces at play here that make it so. Broader tailwinds are further reinforced by Hims approach to overcome and better position around headwinds.""
X Link 2024-06-12T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long Hims & Hers Health $HIMS and is currently my second largest holding (previously largest). After a 70% portfolio return since the end of March I've released my research on the company in one of the most in-depth reports I've written to date. I believe there are [--] key pillars to the continued success of $HIMS with one I've noticed not many bulls having mentioned at all. These 4-pillars all cohesively come together to improve financial KPIs margins and growth at a time when differentiation in the market is key. I'm very bullish on the name and my"
X Link 2024-06-12T12:18Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements
"How interesting one of the risks I mentioned in my $HIMS report below was regulation coming down on broader telehealth because of bad apples I cited Cerebral but forgot Done was also one of the pill mills that got caught by the DEA @WSJ just reported that the execs got charged As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long Hims & Hers Health $HIMS and is currently my second largest holding (previously largest). After a 70% portfolio return since the end of March I've released my research on the company in one of the most in-depth reports I've written to https://t.co/i5sB7HSZCl As first disclosed on"
X Link 2024-06-13T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I occasionally share research in a quick chart form. Yesterday I shared a chart on the absurd valuation that is $CAVA relative to peers. Even labeled as the "next Chipotle" $CMG the valuation is at nosebleed levels implying either unbelievable growth or an unsustainable valuation. Click the link below and check it out for yourself. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cavas-nosebleed-valuation-makes https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cavas-nosebleed-valuation-makes"
X Link 2024-06-17T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Pulling an excerpt from the post below on $HIMS compounding strategy. "Based on the Professional Compounding Centers of America (PCCA) retail pharmacies can typically expect around 3% net profit. Based on the data collected many high-performing compounding-only pharmacies operate with 20% net profits. Hybrid types of pharmacies net profits are typically in the range of 8-12%. Considering that Hims pharmacies now support over 80% of medication/product distribution you can see these efficiencies and cost savings partially being reflected in the margins." As first disclosed on May 12th I'm long"
X Link 2024-06-18T12:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup sounds good to me" despite the price being 100% more than if they went to pick it up physically. I also noticed that the actual item itself is 30% more for delivery"
X Link 2024-06-20T01:54Z [----] followers, 33K engagements
"🚩 Suspected FLY-E Group $FLYE Post-IPO Manipulation On June 4th I shared my updated thoughts on FLY-E Group's (FLYE) IPO and notified everyone that as much as I wanted to like the company I was going to pass. Originally FLYE was looking to sell 3M shares between $4 - $5. They ended up pricing only 2.25M shares @ $4 in a downsized IPO. The company opened for trading at $5.50 and quickly went down to $3.59 not long after. Made sense to me considering the business. However the stock has been on a tear and I believe due to its low float (10% of SO) and thus ability to be manipulated traders are"
X Link 2024-06-25T12:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Unemployment never just goes up a little bit. It almost always goes up a lot a bit. With the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1% this past Friday many are worried that this will eventually trigger the Sahm Rule which has an accurate history of predicting recessions. Many are now calling for the Fed to start lowering rates to avoid calamity. I dove into the rule shared my thoughts on what history tells us and even approached the rule at a more granular level. Click through to see what the data says. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/sahm-rule-about-to-be-triggered"
X Link 2024-07-09T12:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Going to be sharing my $HIMS compounded GLP-1 business projections tomorrow in the AM. With so much talk around the prospects of this product offering for the company I figured I'd share my "realistic projections" through [----]. I'll go over - Limitations of the offering - Churn assumptions - Shooting down the $1 billion claim - Realistic net revenue build If you're long $HIMS and want to get a not-in-the-pie or abstract walkthrough like many on this app sign up below to get it in your inbox tomorrow morning. http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com"
X Link 2024-07-09T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As promised I've released my research on $HIMS compounded GLP-1 business through the end of [----]. Given that the stock is up 78% from post Q1'24 earnings the market is heavily pricing in the new product offering despite earnings revisions not reflecting it. Thus there's a lot to be open for interpretation. I break down scenarios on how the company would even be able to reach $1 billion in revenue (highly unlikely) but more importantly the path to what I believe are realistic expectations for the business by EoY [----]. My projections incorporate assumptions for churn and growth for the various"
X Link 2024-07-10T12:30Z [----] followers, 25.2K engagements
"Domino's $DPZ earnings out tomorrow. You can read my most recent commentary below post LQ earnings and link to the most recent write-up (free) explaining my thoughts Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the upside with GAAP EPS at $3.58 I had sales at $1.087 billion vs $1.084 billion (actual) My EPS was $3.27 mainly driven by not much margin expansion that https://t.co/0f1yULQUy4 Interesting bottom line results today from Domino's Pizza $DPZ Revenue came in line at $1.08 billion but EPS surprised to the"
X Link 2024-07-17T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"📉 $DPZ down 12% in PM and 13% since I covered the name back in April It's always nice when a thesis is proven right. On April 20th I wrote a write-up on Domino's $DPZ highlighting what I believed to be a fully priced in stock and that investing in it now had very little upside. The allocation of capital in this name would not be worth its time. There were a few reasons behind this but primarily it was driven by aggressive management expectations for growth that I did not believe were there. Original article (free): I provided both my logic and model output on valuation. Q1 earnings proved"
X Link 2024-07-18T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I am LONG Red Cat Holdings $RCAT as an event-driven trade. $RCAT is a finalist for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap. I believe that should they win the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. 1/"
X Link 2024-07-23T12:24Z [----] followers, 31.4K engagements
"@Greatstockpix It was a pump and dump since last month https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1815773240595194114 📉 Last month I warned everyone that $FLYE looked like it was getting manipulated and to stay away from it. Today Stock pukes 63% and trading halted multiple times in the last hour Idk who's dumping but this stock was one that I passed on (see thread + research) https://t.co/7OkADRlASY https://x.com/cedargrovecm/status/1815773240595194114 📉 Last month I warned everyone that $FLYE looked like it was getting manipulated and to stay away from it. Today Stock pukes 63% and trading halted"
X Link 2024-07-23T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I've been saying this since last year. $WW; YTD -85% [--]. It was necessary for $WW to pivot to GLP-1s [--]. The ramp is too slow to offset the core business decline [--]. The debt overhang can really strain this company if #2 can't happen quickly and financials deteriorate before refinancing can occur "Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to help customers lose weight was anything but realistic from the start and it has taken investors for a ride." See why we inevitably decided to short this GLP-1 trade below https://t.co/mc19PJfre6 "Weight Watchers $WW pivot to offering medication to"
X Link 2024-07-26T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When looking at how the defense industry has scaled over the last few years you'll need to pay attention to the backlog The ramp-up becomes evident over the last few quarters in $LMT $NOC $GD $RTX Re-armament is in full swing for potential future conflict Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC https://t.co/RpnM4GHmaG Newest post is out now on the defense industry."
X Link 2024-07-26T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yea no kidding. "Among consumers who report ordering less delivery 41% said it was because of high delivery fees while 48% point to inflated menu prices according to the report." $UBER $DASH $CMG Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup sounds good to me" despite the price being 100% more than if they went to pick it up physically. I also noticed that the actual item itself is 30% more for delivery. https://t.co/y6yVcPRNE2 Looking at Chipotle's $CMG ordering economics for the consumer it's wild to think how many people go "yup"
X Link 2024-07-27T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chewy $CHWY has not been able to reignite growth in its active customer base since peaking in Q4'21. Since peaking the company has only had [--] quarters of Q/Q growth. (active customer is defined as making a purchase in a 364-day period)"
X Link 2024-07-29T17:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For all those new here be sure to check out the recent research that I've published. $HIMS continues to be my most read post of all time but others not far behind. Others include $MAMA $FLYE $CAVA $GENK and $CPRI to name just a few Free trial available for all paid content http://www.cedargrovecm.com http://www.cedargrovecm.com"
X Link 2024-08-01T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hims $HIMS is reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell and the last few days have sent the stock down 18% on various news and market events. A name I know well I decided to share my updated thoughts and model assumptions prior to ER. In the below post I go over - How recent news of $LLY changes the prospects for HIMS compounding - How Im viewing WW Internationals $WW clinical business when analyzing headwinds regarding HIMS. - Updated HIMS valuation with an isolated GLP-1 sales model. Click the link below to access the research. 🔗:"
X Link 2024-08-04T13:58Z [----] followers, 39.6K engagements
"$WW bond yields jumped to 39% now. Stock price down to $.72. They can't lose access to capital markets or their lifelines will be considerably cut The debt overhang of $WW is a problem. Looking at one of their 4.5% bonds that matures in [----] the yield has jumped from 14.5% at the beginning of the year to 30.5% as of yesterday https://t.co/GiNithPbDl The debt overhang of $WW is a problem. Looking at one of their 4.5% bonds that matures in [----] the yield has jumped from 14.5% at the beginning of the year to 30.5% as of yesterday https://t.co/GiNithPbDl"
X Link 2024-08-08T12:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$RCAT is up 18% right now after earnings. Based on the financials and the acquisition of Flight Wave the no win contract math for the company has changed significantly. The margin of safety has improved and the R/R of this trade appears even more compelling. So far so good. Can still check out the research below. I am LONG Red Cat Holdings $RCAT as an event-driven trade. $RCAT is a finalist for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap. I believe that should they win the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. 1/"
X Link 2024-08-09T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS released their Q2'24 last Monday and the market was less than pleased and sent the stock briefly down below $15 on Thursday. We believe that the comments made by Andrew around the future strategy of compounded GLP-1s are less than ideal. Teaser report in next comment 1/"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, 63.6K engagements
"Despite having a great quarter against unbaked GLP-1 figures the once black-and-white GLP-1 market that $HIMS was to be operating during a pre/post-GLP-1 shortage has turned gray. 2/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Over the last nearly [--] years $HIMS has been able to prove to the healthcare industry that telehealth solutions can be a cost-effective and preferable way for patients to seek treatment options as shown by the nearly [---] million platform subscribers 3/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"However when operating in a gray area in the healthcare industry this only amplifies the risks brought onto the company by government regulation watchdogs and other pharmaceutical companies. $HIMS 4/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Based on our findings we believe that the new strategy laid out in the earnings call once the GLP-1 shortage ends potentially changes the future potential of $HIMS that some investors have also figured out but others haven't yet. 5/ 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When conducting our research we've also made some discoveries with $HIMS core business that is being overshadowed by the weight loss category. These findings hint at another issue that the $HIMS team will need to overcome to justify a retracement of their recent 52-week high. You can find all of this information via the 12-page PDF download link below. 🔗: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-icarus-too-close-to-the-sun"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A short snippet from our research published on Sunday regarding $HIMS marketing in relation to subscriber growth "Ive noticed that the cost of acquiring net subscribers is trending higher over the last five quarters versus the prior five.""
X Link 2024-08-13T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@gmc_thoughts Not a core part of the business. Buffet-style dining is not meant to compete with grab-and-go. It's a value play not a time-saving play"
X Link 2024-08-27T16:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to carry the burden of total costs even as they might outweigh the savings from treating these conditions Commentary from $GS research $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO"
X Link 2024-08-27T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""A recentsurveyconducted in late May of this year shows that just 34% of United States employer health plans offer coverage of GLP-1 drugs for both diabetes management and weight loss." $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to carry the burden of total costs even as they might outweigh the savings from treating these conditions Commentary from $GS research $HIMS $WW $LLY $NVO https://t.co/46DDRjLKQS Coverage for GLP-1s will have to come from private insurance as public insurance providers won't be able to"
X Link 2024-08-31T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With $HIMS making a move to improve retention of its patient base offering longer duration plans at a discount while improving LTV You can't recognize that full revenue upfront. It becomes deferred revenue. The trend supports that more $HIMS patients are signing up beyond 1Q"
X Link 2024-09-04T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Shared our updated thoughts on the $TPR / $CPRI M&A arb deal that's going to court this week. We share our notes on [--] different documents as well as the presumed $CPRI break price should the deal fall apart. (1/2) See thread"
X Link 2024-09-08T12:20Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements
"Just released our updated thoughts on Mama's Creations $MAMA after their Q2'25 earnings last week. We feel that the negatives in that print were very short-term in nature which has allowed investors to take advantage of near-term price swings. Still very bullish on the future"
X Link 2024-09-19T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We believe that most of the pullback was due to [--]. No SRR announcement [--]. The bridge financing and warrant issuance with Lind [--]. Confusion in financials given manufacturing shift from Teal [--] to Teal [--] along with moving from an April FYE to a CYE 2/3 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
X Link 2024-09-26T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While the news was not what investors hoped for we think there are come clues to the optimism that Jeff has with winning the deal not to mention rumors going around that Skydio did not win SRR. We break down our thoughts and new math below. 3/3 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q1-25-red-cat-holdings-updateutm_campaign=email-post&r=gs5o7&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
X Link 2024-09-26T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And just like that Sima (CEO) is out at $WW Can't knock her for trying. Still believe she was doing the right thing with GLP-1s but failed to get the traction she was hoping for. Was only a matter of time. $WW has generally good intentions but failed at reinvigorating the core business and slowing it's decline. GLP-1s might be too little too late. Best and only short report of [----]. Down 80%. https://t.co/ekvbNZjbh4 Was only a matter of time. $WW has generally good intentions but failed at reinvigorating the core business and slowing it's decline. GLP-1s might be too little too late. Best and"
X Link 2024-09-27T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In Q3 [----] Cedar Grove Capital (CGC) returned 8.2% return compared to 5.8% for the S&P [---]. We've sized up a number of positions and share select position commentary $CPRI $RCAT $LULU Pleased with the results. Click the link to access. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q324-cgc-quarterly-letter https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/q324-cgc-quarterly-letter"
X Link 2024-10-06T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Really good article out today from @Bloomberg regarding the dire situation Europe has put itself in concerning fighting the next war. It flows into our article from April about betting on defense contractors. It's paywalled but sharing images and snippets below for you 👇🏼 1/ Newest post is out now on the defense industry. [--] We go over the rise of conflicts post-Iraq/Afghanistan withdrawal. [--] The rearmament and remilitarization of countries around the world. [--] The NATO 2% target is playing catch-up now and the RoW preparing for war. $LMT $NOC https://t.co/RpnM4GHmaG Newest post is out now on"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ "NATOs members agreed in [----] that they would each be spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense by [----]. About [--] out of [--] allies are expected to hit the target up from just [--] countries last year.""
X Link 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ The UK France are other military powers but both have slashed troop numbers since the Cold War. Frances active armed forces shrank by 56% between [----] and [----]. Britain's army will be reduced to 73k soldiers by [----] the lowest level since the Napoleonic wars of 18031815"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ Germany could possibly deploy one brigade numbering a few thousand soldiers. France could mobilize [-----] soldiers in [--] days. The UK could at a best effort muster one division of between [-----] and [-----] soldiers. American special forces alone number around 70000"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Sharing our thoughts on the breaking news regarding $TPR and $CPRI Obviously we don't agree with the verdict but we share a quick note and how we're handling it going forward. https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/judge-favors-ftc-update-on-tpr-takeoverr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cedargrovecapital/p/judge-favors-ftc-update-on-tpr-takeoverr=gs5o7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2024-10-24T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Last week $PTON released their Q1'25 earnings and the stock rose 30%. While we felt this was completely uncalled for the stock has settled back down to the mid-$7s. Here's the callout for guidance for the remainder of FY'25 from the CFO"
X Link 2024-11-04T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS out with another stellar quarter - Accelerated growth in GLP-1s - Core (ex weight loss) reaccelerated - $30M buyback - Marketing expense continues to decline However - Reiterates compounding GLP-1s after shortage - Some problem areas are growing 🔗 below for full report"
X Link 2024-11-05T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's official. After yesterday's print CAVA $CAVA has officially reached $57 million in market cap per unit For a concept with 🔹352 locations 🔹 $2.7 AUV 🔹 Adj restaurant margins of 26% See how the value has changed over time with our chart below https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cava-has-officially-reached https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/cotw-cava-has-officially-reached"
X Link 2024-11-13T13:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Updated report on our Build-a-Bear $BBW long out now Just like our initial post the thesis is incredibly simple and the market is overlooking the companys emphasis on asset-light growth. Better growth margins and scale No debt net cash $100M buyback See why in next tweet"
X Link 2024-11-13T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yesterday we published [--] new special situations that we've taken small positions in - Consumer-focused brand that might result in a strategic review - Fintech name in the payments space that is looking to sell themselves Both ideas + additional position commentary are below 👇🏽"
X Link 2024-11-18T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just shared a quick TL;DR of our new position in Daktronics $DAKT a producer and manufacturer of LED/LCD video displays A more detailed report will be out this weekend but given recent updates about a convert and earnings Wed this will suffice 👇🏼 https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/06e2da25-dba1-47c2-a03f-873e61c5322a https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/06e2da25-dba1-47c2-a03f-873e61c5322a"
X Link 2024-12-03T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yesterday we released our full note on why we think Daktronics $DAKT can get to $40/share (+100%) over the next few years Industry tailwinds improved governance and a focus on profitability via margin improvement can help DAKT achieve 20% LT margins See why we think so 1/2"
X Link 2024-12-09T13:15Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements
"$HIMS GLP-1 shortage is on everyone's minds and we went ahead and aggregated the data from @ro's GLP-1 supply tracker over time Data utilizes web archive data for self-reported supply issues FDA removes Tirzepatide Oct [--] and the rise in supply issues is not that alarming 👇🏼 @KevOnStage I think taylor swift is (much) more talented than Beyonc @KevOnStage I think taylor swift is (much) more talented than Beyonc"
X Link 2024-12-10T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Investors in [----] are in a Prisoners Dilemma With the $SPY expecting 25% gain this year this would be just the 4th time in the past [---] years the index logged 20%-plus returns two years in a row. History is mixed on what happens next. Do you sell https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/prisoners-dilemma-when-if-to-runutm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=288391&post_id=152976990&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=gs5o7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email"
X Link 2024-12-13T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just released our 3rd episode of 🎙 "The Investors' Corner" with Gary Schnierow Head of Investor Relations at Build-A-Bear $BBW. In this interview we go over 🟢 The business model change of the company 🟢 Why its more than the old-school Build-A-Bear that you probably know 🟢 Its capital allocation strategy and 🟢 What the future looks like when it comes to strategic growth We're very bullish on the future of $BBW and believe that the earnings results the other week firmly cement the company's ability to deliver LT shareholder value. Take a look in the next comment"
X Link 2024-12-16T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Come join us for an update on $HIMS Going to be going live on Twitter at 12:10pm EST. Hopefully catch people at lunch. Will discuss updates regarding $HIMS - FDA decision - GLP-1 impact(s) - Future prospect etc. Come join. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space https://t.co/SFHALa0IcB Going to be going live on Twitter at 12:10pm EST. Hopefully catch people at lunch. Will discuss updates regarding $HIMS - FDA decision - GLP-1 impact(s) - Future prospect etc. Come join. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space https://t.co/SFHALa0IcB"
X Link 2024-12-20T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This morning we released our notes on - Recent Hims & Hers Health $HIMS news regarding the FDA and price decreases - Mama's Creations $MAMA Q3'24 earnings and - An update regarding recent portfolio changes Please find it in the next comment"
X Link 2024-12-22T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yesterday morning we published our thoughts on the recent take-private of Soho House $SHCO for $9/share. This is not the first time $SHCO has received an offer that didn't materialize into an accepted deal. Given the r/r here we think it's worth taking a speculative bet and calling a bluff on this offer. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-betting-against-soho-house-shco https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-betting-against-soho-house-shco"
X Link 2024-12-30T13:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just released our Q4'24 letter to subscribers. In Q4 CGC returned 21.0% compared to 2.5% for the S&P [---] and 0.3% for the Russell [----] and ended the year with a return of 38.5%. This is one of our more in-depth letters where we go over why we couldn't sell $HIMS at $35 and select position commentary for all the tickers listed below. $GTBIF $LULU $GENK $BBW $RCAT $CPRI The $HIMS trade we highlight is a learning lesson for us despite making money on that trade. You'll also find portfolio positioning sizing and returns in the below link. Looking forward to a great 2025"
X Link 2025-01-02T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning we released our note on why we're long Liquidia Corp $LQDA The company has been battling United Therapeutics $UTHR over the last few years to prevent Yutrepia from coming to market. Cleared to launch in May we think shares could double. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-launch-a-catalyst-for-liquidia-lqda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-launch-a-catalyst-for-liquidia-lqda"
X Link 2025-01-07T15:27Z [----] followers, 54K engagements
"2/ After being long all of last year we think the market is still not appropriately pricing in the risks associated with the Semaglutide shortage which we believe would send the stock down 20% just on the headline alone $HIMS https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far"
X Link 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ Additionally as we've highlighted in past reports $HIMS marketing dollars per net subscriber added has continued trending upward as of the beginning of last year and stands well above its FY'22 and Q1'23 median. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far"
X Link 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ With new $META ad policy changes taking effect this year certain health information won't be available for ad targeting which will not help the situation regarding efficient customer acquisition costs. Find our $HIMS short below https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-a-bridge-too-far"
X Link 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just shared our recent research on a few names along with two new trade ideas. - Short $SHCO arb - Liquidia $LQDA update - Special Situation of Capri $CPRI - Special Situation of The Tile Shop $TTSH - Commentary on FDA vs OFA 1/ https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Shorting Soho House $SHCO for the arb trade Before the end of the year we highlighted why we thought the take-private offer of $SHCO was not realistic. Below we highlight the financial reasoning behind why it seems unlikely to happen. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Liquidia $LQDA has been an interesting play considering how it's highlighted the messy relationship when the FDA gets into bed with big pharma. Recent INSPIRE study results make us even more bullish than before. Still think it's a 2x from here. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ While the arb trade failed last year with Capri $CPRI the company being open to selling its Jimmy Choo and Versace assets brings new life to the trade We think being open to selling was the 1st hurdle now we outline the potential return (+28 - 42%) https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ @ToffCap first highlighted The Tile Shop $TTSH institutional buying from Fund [--] Investments yesterday Fund [--] has been very active recently with $DXLG and $VRA. See why we think it's similar to our $SNBR trade that returned +50% in two weeks last year https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Lastly we provided quick thoughts on the recent FDA decision to allow Tirzepatide compounding while the ongoing litigation with OFA continues We're very puzzled by this decision and briefly highlight what that means for $HIMS w/ Semaglutide shortage https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-few-updates-and-two-pitches-shco-lqda-cpri-ttsh-hims-fda"
X Link 2025-01-21T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Over the weekend we shared our notes from an expert call with a current lawyer regarding the GLP-1 shortage. The Expert has over [--] yrs of experience with [--] of those being at the FDA handling regulation. $WW $HIMS $NVO $LLY $LFMD In our notes we summarize their thoughts on a few categories including the current state of the compounding industry around these drugs as well as when they think it could be coming off and what would trigger it. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-fda-lawyers-thoughts-on-the-glp-1-shortage"
X Link 2025-02-03T13:06Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"This morning we released our post-Q4'24 commentary on $HIMS. Lots of developments over the last week alone but what is troubling with the earnings call is how much it appeared to be smoke and mirrors. Semaglutide off shortage confusing EC language intention to continue pushing personalized GLP-1s new definition of "core" and the possibility of $NVO suing for IP theft sets up FY'25 for another volatile year. In our 20-page report we break down our issues with their new "weight loss" guidance push of personalized GLP-1s going forward and other noteworthy information. Based on our skepticism"
X Link 2025-03-03T15:25Z [----] followers, 54.6K engagements
"This morning we released our post-earnings take on a few names ( $LNSR / $OWLT / $GENK / $DAKT) along with a very brief update on $SHCO. Some names we're still bullish on while others left us confused. Can find it in the usual place. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/earnings-update-lnsr-owlt-genk-dakt https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/earnings-update-lnsr-owlt-genk-dakt"
X Link 2025-03-11T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In the spirit of keeping up with calling out questionable $HIMS management decisions we've carved out a page highlighting the consistent dumping of shares from insiders on investors. If they're so bullish for the future why do they continue to heavily sell Perfect reason not to sandbag guidance so they can continue dumping.like yesterday. This morning we released our post-Q4'24 commentary on $HIMS. Lots of developments over the last week alone but what is troubling with the earnings call is how much it appeared to be smoke and mirrors. Semaglutide off shortage confusing EC language intention"
X Link 2025-03-14T17:33Z [----] followers, 20.5K engagements
"This morning we shared an update on the Capri $CPRI divestment of the Versace trade idea as well as a brief Build-A-Bear $BBW post-earnings opportunity and a quick $HIMS trade idea. - $CPRI reorg makes us believe the deal is alive - $BBW earnings retracement presents an opportunity for buyers who might have missed out last year - $HIMS trade idea is for anyone looking for short exposure should the opportunity present itself https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cpri-divestment-bbw-earnings-hims-trade https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cpri-divestment-bbw-earnings-hims-trade"
X Link 2025-03-19T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just sent out an open letter to all Lensar $LNSR shareholders regarding the news this morning about the Alcon $ALC takeover announcement. We believe that the $14/share cash offer + $2.75/share consideration grossly undervalues the company. We urge Lensar shareholders to vote no on this takeover offer and make management come back to the table with a better deal or remain a public company. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/open-letter-lensar-lnsr-shareholders-should-reject-alc-offer https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/open-letter-lensar-lnsr-shareholders-should-reject-alc-offer"
X Link 2025-03-24T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Released our notes from the Capital Forum call the other week about the legal landscape for GLP-1 compounding and how it relates to the Hims $HIMS strategy in a post-shortage world - Viability - Legality - IP Suits Free to read for all those interested https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-notes-from-capital-forums-glp-1-intellectual-property-conversation-hims https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/expert-call-notes-from-capital-forums-glp-1-intellectual-property-conversation-hims"
X Link 2025-03-25T15:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like Prada is close to signing for the acquisition of both Versace and Jimmy Choo from Capri $CPRI for [---] billion. Hard to quantify the math here but pre-tariff announcement we did share a note on the value which did not factor in a re-rating. https://uk.style.yahoo.com/prada-nearing-deal-versace-jimmy-180429035.htmlguce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALv3vhq5e7sCA2K9oh_kfOOPl_bQifr76jHgImzPdNLJsUGj5Eo60gG5iKLi0YgeDyop8i-ErewpNwobK3bo2nJERQ1RdQBqWcNUA-zm4YWf2H7Er5ghjXbVnEhI6OK0rjIMlNEUvm4mHf3Jhs7VnYtZzY5i-no5_b2wO7R_u52L&guccounter=2"
X Link 2025-04-03T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yesterday morning we released an update on the Capri $CPRI divestment trade of Versace While we were correct on the sale the market overshadowed by tariff news did not reward holders See why we still think new investors can get a solid 25% return https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/market-ignores-cpri-divestment-an https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/market-ignores-cpri-divestment-an"
X Link 2025-04-14T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sent this am we are long The RealReal $REAL TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realreal-real-a-misunderstood-tariff-beneficiary https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realreal-real-a-misunderstood-tariff-beneficiary"
X Link 2025-04-17T14:13Z [----] followers, 31.8K engagements
"We profiled our RealReal $REAL long position on April 17th. Up until earnings the stock rose 35%. Friday they announced Q1'25 earnings and the stock sold off 30%. Frankly we had no idea why and added to our position. Below are our notes and why the market might have been spooked from the results even though they shouldn't have been. +17% since then. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/real-q125-earnings-shows-oversold-reversal Sent this am we are long The RealReal $REAL TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs We"
X Link 2025-05-14T15:36Z [----] followers, 13K engagements
"Just released our newest report on the DICK's Sporting Goods $DKS acquisition of Foot Locker $FL At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-arb-dks-buys-flutm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=288391&post_id=163873522&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=gs5o7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email"
X Link 2025-05-19T18:55Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround what we liked/disliked and discussed our views for the company going forward. We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-pton-sail-again-walex-morris https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-pton-sail-again-walex-morris"
X Link 2025-06-04T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A follow up for why we said that the recent $HIMS retention claim is misleading. Based on Gleason data published in May [----] patients on Wegovy had a 70% retention rate at the end of three months and didn't dip below 60% until after [--] months 👇🏽 https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-another-misleading-glp-1-pr-claim https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-another-misleading-glp-1-pr-claim"
X Link 2025-06-17T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$WW formally entering the fray with menopause treatments and taking ads to a different level with Queen Latifa. All part of the rebrand as a leaner more relatable company to consumers searching for help. Will be interesting to see the response from consumers. 1/2"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.wsj.com/articles/weightwatchers-attempts-comeback-with-menopause-treatments-and-steamy-ads-480c6cd7gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhDe5RnuE-PgXyrMZiK4R5sPAZWz8JVkE2BmtCQtg0vrNGxmjSnFUDQm9FR7Ps%3D&gaa_ts=68bed913&gaa_sig=6v7iiCnec-HURbQINaVAycMnm-bMuu6gsjGNEK9Mv_wMZzIhIdhqGmtac9xhph8U2ZPbj3SFPZFTzOu-ih66Lw%3D%3D"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$INPST reported Q2'24 earnings and is absolutely continuing to crush business execution. - Excellent expansion of FCF conversion - Massive jump in parcel volume - Penetration in emerging geos (UK + Italy) playing out nicely Was fortunate to size up over the last [--] months +12% Just disclosed a starter position in a new name that just happens to be my first investment overseas. "The company has grown sales at an annual CAGR of 53.2% from [----] to [----] and shows promising signs that the same level of growth can continue." Without diving into detail I Just disclosed a starter position in a new"
X Link 2024-09-06T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yesterday we released our research on the newly completed IPO KinderCare Learning Centers $KLC The company operates in the early childhood education space. Despite improved financials and profitability there's more to not like than like. PASS Get the link via @cedargrovecm"
X Link 2024-10-21T12:33Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"We have held a position in $DPZ since Q1 and have posted our viewpoints on key headwinds the company faces going into earnings tomorrow. Key issues: - Commodity inflation - Labor shortage - Consumer spending All get addressed below https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-outr=gs5o7&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-outr=gs5o7&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2022-04-27T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What a pop on $DPZ up 10% right now on not as bad of earnings as the market thought We wrote our initial post on them on April [--] and called for a soft 1H and rebound in 2H'22. So far we're right but we'll see if Q4'22 holds up to our long thesis #cheap https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-out#details https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/dpz-dominos-down-but-not-out#details"
X Link 2022-10-13T12:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As mentioned yesterday there's not really a play here unless you want to take on that risk Since going public the stock is down 97% and the market cap is a mere $37 million. A fraction of the $1.2 billion valuation at IPO However we believe $RENT is headed toward ch. [--] 2/"
X Link 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Noted in the first tweet expensive logistics made it hard for the company to make money. Shipping merchandise to and from customers is expensive let alone paying for the warehouses staff and inventory that changes. This is why $RENT has NEVER made money in their history 3/"
X Link 2024-01-01T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Capri $CPRI / Tapestry $TPR was cleared by the Chinese SAMR As we mentioned in our below post the likelihood of them saying "no" did not match against numerous precedents. Now onto the other commissions. https://www.samr.gov.cn/fldes/ajgs/wtjjz/art/2024/art_72fb6a2d138a4480a80a64e26a5564b4.html Taking a look at the Tapestry $TPR and Capri $CPRI deal it's very puzzling why the spread is still so large. Below we've gone over the bigger points on what might derail this deal from happening. Have a look below and let us know what you think. Did we miss anything https://t.co/rriZF7W6lT"
X Link 2024-01-10T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Going to be releasing my Domino's Pizza $DPZ update tomorrow morning at 8am EST. Will be going over what's gone right and why looking forward the return isn't worth the risk after the run-up. Link in bio to receive. '24E model update included. In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with a '23 target of $460 ($16.43 @ 28x) and NT downside risk of $304 Funny enough it bottomed in '22 at $310 and closed '23 at $411 hitting $460 3M later My next update will be on DPZ after its 40% 6M return Link in bio https://t.co/zmRNyCc8IQ In April of '22 I shared my research on Dominos $DPZ with"
X Link 2024-04-19T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Out with my recent update on Domino's Pizza $DPZ. After a stellar 42% run-up since [----] lots of management's initiatives to combat labor shortages and inflation have worked out. At 30x NTM P/E this stock seems fairly priced and not worth the risk atm C Y Link in next tweet"
X Link 2024-04-20T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Out with our most recent research on LENSAR $LNSR a micro-cap medical devices company that assists ophthalmic surgeons with cataract surgery. A few recent catalysts have materialized leading to a run-up in price in late [----]. Growing procedural market share no debt breakeven adj. EBITDA with inflecting positive cash flow see why we think there's more to come. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/lnsr-lensar-upside-into-global-clearance https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/lnsr-lensar-upside-into-global-clearance"
X Link 2025-02-24T13:45Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements
"Just sent paid subs out quick note on how we moved on OneSpaWorld $OSW with just a few hours of research. This mainly stemmed from a mis-priced asset getting thrown out with the bathwater which presented a great r/r opportunity. Find it in the usual place"
X Link 2025-07-23T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our recent article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research. It highlights that markets are quick to throw the baby out with the bathwater due to misunderstandings about the company. This mismatch allows investors to seize the opportunity to deliver better risk-adjusted returns. Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at. Take a look below for free. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misunderstandings-create-opportunities-osw"
X Link 2025-07-28T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it. Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16% right now. Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work. This morning we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research on. Those updates are as follows - Soho House $SHCO - LENSAR $LNSR - Liquidia $LQDA - Capri $CPRI - GEN Restaurant $GENK - DICK'S Sportng Goods $DKS/ $FL - https://t.co/IJBMtpzcHL This morning we sent around"
X Link 2025-08-06T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like Soho House $SHCO will be taken private at $9/share with MCR buying out the remaining outstanding shares. Management + Ron Burkle will be rolling over their equity. This deal seems to be different than the one announced [--] months ago and does not pertain to the deal we arbed earlier in the year. There doesn't seem to be a play here given the legitimacy of the deal (Apollo financing) but goes to show how you can drag a narrative around until something hopefully clicks. This morning we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research"
X Link 2025-08-18T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This AM we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. We previously shorted $WW in Jan'24 and we think that at just 4.6x FY'26 EBITDA material upside risk exists post-BK. Have a look below for the key points and link to the report. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-situation-betting-on-ww-post https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-situation-betting-on-ww-post"
X Link 2025-08-25T14:39Z [----] followers, 44.2K engagements
"On Monday we sent around our 1-pager + work from @TenvaCapital regarding our separate positions in Sanuwave Health $SNWV Jesse (Founder of Tenva) has written great work to break down the company and the opportunity. We think SNWV is in its early innings of a multi-year disruption in the wound care space. Take a look below to read Jesse's work. https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/snwv-a-med-devices-co-in-its-early https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/snwv-a-med-devices-co-in-its-early"
X Link 2025-09-24T14:32Z [----] followers, 23K engagements
"We sent out our original note on the $WW turnaround post-BK back in August but it's become very apparent that not many people understand the upside here. The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple we're looking at $25/share of equity value just from deleveraging. Factor in the market catching wind and there could be a path for $WW to triple off the current levels. See our credit agreement explanation and math below. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ww-the-value-unlock-is-in-the-credit-agreement"
X Link 2025-10-21T15:54Z [----] followers, 29.6K engagements
"While we sent around our note yesterday on $WW to explain the credit agreement and how it alone unlocks value don't underestimate comorbidities. In the post below we attached this image that shows why weight loss is such a big deal and why the leader in weight loss (WW) is best positioned for cross-sell opportunities like they recently did with menopause. An over [--] million subscriber base whose sole purpose is to lose weight via their platform. Talk about levers to pull"
X Link 2025-10-22T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning we released part [--] of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes. $REAL crossed the 3x line and we're pleased by the results. $KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week $SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes $LNSR arb is iffy Find it in the usual place https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-quick-earnings-updates-part-ii-real-kits-snwv-lnsr https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-quick-earnings-updates-part-ii-real-kits-snwv-lnsr"
X Link 2025-11-13T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🎙 IC #7 out now. We had the pleasure of speaking with David Helderman Director of Investor Relations at WW International $WW We talk about $WW before and after bankruptcy and how investors should think about the new slimmed-down version going forward. Find it in the usual place. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-7-a-phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes-talking-weight-watchers-ww-post-bankruptcy https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-7-a-phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes-talking-weight-watchers-ww-post-bankruptcy"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning we sent out a new report on thematic investment that revolved around one word: FEAR. Fear became our driving force for our long thesis into Owlet $OWLT which as of yesterday is up 226% since we pitched it back on Oct [--] [----] and another 6% today alone. See part [--] of a two-part series below where we introduce the concept of investing based on fear and an update on $OWLT after the run-up that it's had so far. We're eager to share part two with you all later in the month which coincides with the same fear-based theme. Enjoy"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This AM we released our most recent notes for part [--] on our "Fear-based" investing theme. Similar to what made us invest in $OWLT (+261% since) we believe that Evolv $EVLV makes for a compelling long-term opportunity to capture more market share in the weapons screening space. See why below. https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based-investing-part-2-future-of-weapons-screening https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/fear-based-investing-part-2-future-of-weapons-screening"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lots of headlines have been coming out about the declining prices of mined diamonds v lab-grown While visually chemically and physically identical to a natural diamond lab-created diamonds can cost up to 85% less See why the market for LG diamonds is just heating up 👇🏼 $SIG"
X Link 2023-09-13T12:45Z [----] followers, 327.1K engagements
"Wild the divergence of fitness names of Xponential Fitness $XPOF and F45 $FXLV One was a name that we went long on in [----] and the other was one we ultimately cut (before tanking) and backed by Mark Wahlberg Market cap went from $1.6B to just $2M (MILLION) in under [--] yrs"
X Link 2023-10-09T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Going to be sharing updated thoughts on GEN Restaurant Group $GENK tomorrow post Q2 earnings the other week. Link in bio to receive"
X Link 2024-08-27T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just released our updated thoughts on GEN Restaurant Group $GENK post their Q2'24 earnings release. Despite a 24% drawdown since our initial post we have even higher conviction in the name after digesting Q2 earnings. See why below. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-proving-to-be https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/gen-restaurant-genk-proving-to-be"
X Link 2024-08-28T12:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just shared a quick update on our largest position GEN Restaurant $GENK for paid investors. Briefly go over new unit build developments the impact from such and then the new(ish) Hibachi venture in CA. Link in bio to check out"
X Link 2024-10-28T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yesterday we shared our notes for both Owlet $OWLT and GEN Restaurant $GENK regarding their Q3'24 earnings. Each in their respective ways did have some positives in a turbulent sea of negatives. However we remain the course and share why. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/update-going-over-genk-and-owlt-q324-earnings https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/update-going-over-genk-and-owlt-q324-earnings"
X Link 2024-11-25T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yesterday we released a podcast overview of the ParkerVision $PRKR special situation. It's an entertaining one referencing the original research from [--] Main Capital. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-2-diving-into-the-parkervision-qcom-litigation https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-2-diving-into-the-parkervision-qcom-litigation"
X Link 2024-12-02T14:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yesterday we sent a report on Hims and Hers Health $HIMS explaining why we are now short the company. 1/"
X Link 2025-01-13T13:49Z [----] followers, 90.6K engagements
"This morning we shared a 🚩 Alert on GEN Restaurant $GENK initially spotted by @realLigerCub. There seems to be some misleading or selectively omitted context around historical unit closures that raises additional flags with management. With trust being an important factor in holding this name recent resignation of the Co-CEO and slow unit openings in Q4 we've exited this trade. Can read about the decision and findings below. https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/alert-on-gen-restaurant-group-genk https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/alert-on-gen-restaurant-group-genk"
X Link 2025-02-07T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning we released an updated report on $HIMS reiterating our short thesis. Recently obtained credit card data through the end of last week suggests that $HIMS growth is massively over-indexing to GLP-1s more than previously thought. This would hint at a significant deceleration of core business growth should the over-indexing be true paving the way for a harder fall once the shortage ends. Our findings from recent prime brokerage data also suggest that a large portion of the shares sold short have been covered over the last two weeks suggesting that little fire remains for a prolonged"
X Link 2025-02-18T13:28Z [----] followers, 90.3K engagements
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