# ![@bobspaysubstack Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1910712335162871808.png) @bobspaysubstack Bob's Payment Stock Substack

Bob's Payment Stock Substack posts on X about $four, $tost, $pypl, $fisv the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1910712335162871808/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1910712335162871808/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] -47%
- [--] Month [-------] +38%
- [--] Months [---------] +202%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1910712335162871808/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1910712335162871808/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +5.70%
- [--] Month [---] +34%
- [--] Months [---] +15%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1910712335162871808/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1910712335162871808/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +4.50%
- [--] Month [-----] +20%
- [--] Months [-----] +219%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1910712335162871808/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1910712335162871808/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  91.09% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  37.62% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  33.66% [finance](/list/finance)  24.75% [countries](/list/countries)  1.98% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.99% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  0.99%

**Social topic influence**
[$four](/topic/$four) #2, [$tost](/topic/$tost) #2, [$pypl](/topic/$pypl) #1402, [$fisv](/topic/$fisv) #12, [$adyen](/topic/$adyen) #5, [$xyz](/topic/$xyz) #23, [$gpn](/topic/$gpn) #1, [$shop](/topic/$shop) #77, [business](/topic/business) 8.91%, [$intu](/topic/$intu) #124

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@valuenotdeadyet](/creator/undefined) [@ottavicap](/creator/undefined) [@saynototrading](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@cariocapital](/creator/undefined) [@jszhang0912](/creator/undefined) [@nifohuts](/creator/undefined) [@samueltind69643](/creator/undefined) [@nachunja](/creator/undefined) [@magiccompounds](/creator/undefined) [@stripe](/creator/undefined) [@skytooth](/creator/undefined) [@tomsmith839](/creator/undefined) [@yehoshzl](/creator/undefined) [@invest091](/creator/undefined) [@george_dubs_](/creator/undefined) [@fishtowncap](/creator/undefined) [@ashton1nvests](/creator/undefined) [@texasrunnerdfw](/creator/undefined) [@icemancapital](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Toast, Inc. (TOST)](/topic/$tost) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Block, Inc. (XYZ)](/topic/$xyz) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)](/topic/$payx) [American Express Company (AXP)](/topic/$axp) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [Adappter Token (ADP)](/topic/$adp) [Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)](/topic/$cpay) [Workday Inc (WDAY)](/topic/$wday) [Paycom Software Inc (PAYC)](/topic/$payc) [Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)](/topic/$cof) [Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY)](/topic/$jkhy) [Paylocity Holding, Corp. (PCTY)](/topic/$pcty) [StaFi (FIS)](/topic/$fis) [Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD)](/topic/$lspd) [Bedrock (BR)](/topic/$br) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Bill.com Holdings, Inc. (BILL)](/topic/$bill) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)](/topic/$afrm) [Dave Inc. (DAVE)](/topic/$dave) [Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)](/topic/$jnj) [Hyper Pay (HPY)](/topic/$hpy) [US Bancorp (USB)](/topic/$usb) [Masco, Corp. (MAS)](/topic/$mas)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The Bull Case for Integrated SMB Payments Why the future is still bright for $GPN $FOUR $FISV and $XYZ My bull case for Integrated SMB Players has three components: First although maturing the U.S. market is likely to continue growing card payment volume 5-7% over the medium-term with integrated SMB players exceeding this rate. Although some companies may need to disrupt themselves - $FISV and $GPN are displacing volume on their own legacy solutions with modern POS systems all have a solution that is winning in the marketplace including from banks $JPM $WFC $BAC $USB $PNC which capture more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2015853212570431892)  2026-01-26T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Ashton_1nvests $JNJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022137335174115585)  2026-02-13T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On AI disruption for Intuits $INTU TurboTax: 41% of TurboTax revenue now comes from TurboTax Live which grew 47% last tax season. This is a key pillar of their strategy: to disrupt the assisted tax category. One way theyre doing this is by opening actual storefronts (up to [---] currently) with real humans who can guide a preparer through the filing process if necessary. $INTU has noted customers are 5x more likely to convert when theres a physical location within [--] miles of the customer. Are LLMs going to build out this same infrastructure to convince consumers to use their service to prepare"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019379166055977430)  2026-02-05T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interestingly you have $ADYEN and $TOST providing nearly identical [----] guidance: 20-22% top line growth and stable-to-slightly up margins. $TOST trades at 42x LTM FCF ex SBC and $ADYEN at 27x. Like both but still think $ADYEN is better buy of the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022307062537933307)  2026-02-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Good article on Payments by @ottavicap worthwhile read if youre interested in the space $TOST $ADYEN $SHOP $FOUR $FISV $XYZ $GPN https://t.co/xFCAzQKs5c https://t.co/xFCAzQKs5c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019421463871402146)  2026-02-05T14:42Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements


"Reasonable argument and yes I very much like the software + payments + hardware lane that $TOST plays in. The contrary argument is that both have big opportunity from displacing legacy systems. While $ADYEN has proven it can do it across the globe and verticals $TOST is in the early stages of moving beyond its more narrowly defined market of U.S. restaurants https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022311555388305806 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022311555388305806"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022311555388305806)  2026-02-13T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@texasrunnerDFW The housing market is frozen in my neck of the woods. Buyers and sellers remain far apart on price. People's perception of their home's value doesn't meet the reality of a 6.75% mortgage rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935410495135056013)  2025-06-18T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some thoughts on Shift4 $FOUR (I am long but increasingly cautious on the name): [--]. $FOUR is one of the worst offenders in terms of earnings add-backs. Over the LTM 21.5% of $FOUR's adjusted EBITDA was from SBC acquisition restructuring integration FX and other non-recurring costs. Yes the stock is inexpensive but it also isn't as cheap as headline multiples suggest. [--]. Organic growth isn't easily determined which is a problem. $FOUR relies on acquisitions to fill it's cross-sell funnel which drives a spurt of 'organic' growth in the near-term after an acquisition is completed and revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1970888662687842594)  2025-09-24T16:30Z [----] followers, 24.9K engagements


"Discouraging to see a lack of bid in Shift4 $FOUR today despite strong travel and entertainment spending from $AXP. I think Q3 numbers will be good but Global Blue likely to dominate the conversation for a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979277160259993737)  2025-10-17T20:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Fiservs $FI results were stunningly bad. Wow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1983490150463332492)  2025-10-29T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Fiserv $FI CEO doing a full takedown of previous managements entire guidance/operational framework"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983506909194760689)  2025-10-29T12:11Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements


"My #Payments Scorecard $V $MA $AXP $SHOP $ADYEN $TOST $XYZ $FI $GPN $FOUR $PYPL $CPAY $JKHY $FIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985359808933835231)  2025-11-03T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Jack Henry $JKHY Quick Hit: $JKHY is one of the more interesting names to me. Unlike its primary competitors in bank technology - $FIS and $FI - $JKHY has largely avoided large-scale M&A instead preferring smaller tuck-in deals and internal innovation through healthy spending on research and development. The end result has been stronger organic revenue growth a healthy financial position and operational simplicity with $JKHY's three core banking platforms comparing favorably to $FI's [--]. Its too early to tell if $FI's recalibrated growth expectations for the Financial Solutions segment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1985363423245332913)  2025-11-03T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Corpay $CPAY Quick Hit: $CPAY is unique in the sense it operates in less competitive Payments markets including fuel cards lodging and tolls. However while I believe the companys Corporate Payments business was viewed favorably not too long ago the emergence of stablecoins and their use case for business-to-business payments appears to be casting a shadow over the business today. Finally $CPAY has been open about its ability to significantly increase the earnings power of acquired companies by increasing prices in addition to adding value opening adjacent markets enhancing sales and marketing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1985363471509192832)  2025-11-03T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For Q3 Toast $TOST guided for FinTech/SaaS gross profit growth to slow to 23-26% vs. 35% in Q2. Instead it was +34% barely slowing. They're predicting a similar slowdown in Q4 w/guidance of 22-25% growth. Only blemish on otherwise outstanding results. GPV growth accelerated by a point to 24% w/strong take rate of 49.5bps up 9% year-over-year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1985824179669926094)  2025-11-04T21:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Im open to Toast $TOST @ $34 and Adyen $ADYEN @ $1316 but Shopify $SHOP still needs to come in quite a bit in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1990902572740190623)  2025-11-18T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My Top Ten Businesses in #Payments and #FinTech $CPAY $FOUR $AXP $FISV $JKHY $TOST $ADYEN $SHOP $V $MA https://bobhammel.substack.com/ https://bobhammel.substack.com/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1998068246193311909)  2025-12-08T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"An oldie but goodiea Heartland $HPY (acquired by $GPN in 2016) terminal at a community rec center"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/1999984528123949353)  2025-12-13T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@icemancapital Theyd have to pay close to $2B for Lightspeed $LSPD hardly a tuck-in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2000712469908496395)  2025-12-15T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2026 Top Pick: Global Payments $GPN The past is the past. The future is now for Global Payments $GPN. With Worldpay closed the combined business grows organic revenue 6-7% in [----] achieves cost savings ahead of target and reduces debt to a more manageable level by the end of the year. The Genius platform gains more traction than expected and the market grows incrementally more positive about Globals ability to compete given its commitment to spend significantly on research and development. All this drives Globals multiple closer to 10x than its current multiple below 6x."  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2007077148918505723)  2026-01-02T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Is Toast $TOST Attractive When I wrote about Toast $TOST back in August I estimated a fair value of about $40 but that relied on aggressive assumptions: - a 40% share of U.S. restaurants by [----] up from high-teens today - a high-teens share of U.S. food and beverage retail and restaurants for select international markets (Canada the U.K. and Ireland) by [----] up from essentially zero today; and - a 49% adjusted EBITDA margin by [----] Can they do it It's certainly possible but the margin for error remains small in my opinion. On an EV/GAAP EBITDA basis $TOST trades at 35x my [----] estimate more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2009316115256672264)  2026-01-08T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The Deutsche Bank downgrade of $FOUR perfectly sums up the attitude towards Payments companies: cutting a stock that trades 10x because organic growth is going to slow from the high-teens to 'just' 12-15%. No other word to describe sentiment than nasty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2012012208939766130)  2026-01-16T04:01Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements


"@ottavicap is absolutely correct that payment take rates have been stable over LT despite claims of race to bottom on pricing. In fact integrating payments with software especially owned lifts both take rate AND retention. $XYZ $TOST $GPN $FISV $FOUR all have an owned software solution. For $XYZ and $TOST it is 100% of business. Clover is growing part of $FISV. $GPN is rolling out Genius to replace legacy POS software but smaller part of business and has significant exposure to partnered software channel which is more at risk. $FOUR has SkyTab for restaurants and stadiums and integrates with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2012272491780092278)  2026-01-16T21:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@nachunja Wife: So let me get this straight you own $GPN and $FISV and you just bought $XYZ Me: Dont forget about $FOUR Wife: At least you dont own any $PYPL do you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2013052674304881082)  2026-01-19T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Payroll and HCM Primer $INTU $ADP $WDAY $PAYX $PAYC $PCTY Payroll and HCM companies have enjoyed premium valuations for most of the past decade due to mission-critical solutions (no business can skip payroll or risk it being wrong) sizable TAMs pricing power strong balance sheets and rational capital allocation. However those premiums are disappearing as some cyclical tailwinds fade and AIs emergence creates both risks and opportunities. In the years following the pandemic the payroll and HCM industry benefitted from an almost perfect environment: a strong recovery in employment rapidly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014009849709814139)  2026-01-21T16:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Payroll and HCM Valuation $INTU $ADP $WDAY $PAYX $PAYC $PCTY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014010910768005547)  2026-01-21T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Where everyone plays in Payroll and HCM $ADP $PAYX $INTU $PAYC $PCTY $WDAY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014012016118161747)  2026-01-21T16:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Is there a 'race to the bottom' on pricing in Payments No Of [--] companies that serve SMBs w/combo of software + payments $XYZ $SHOP $TOST $LSPD $FISV $FOUR $GPN $USB net take rate has risen from 53.7bps to 56.5bps over past [--] Qs $18.3b of revenue on $3.3t of volume LTM https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014420945792831885 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014420945792831885"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014420945792831885)  2026-01-22T19:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The restaurant industry is probably the most competitive market in payments.and the take rate is clearly rising for $FOUR the no. [--] or [--] player. The idea that there's pricing pressure in payments is just not supported by the data IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014438195333587238)  2026-01-22T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Legacy Capital One $COF domestic credit card PV was +6.2% in Q4 down only slightly from Q3's +6.5%. Q4 credit card PV from major issuers was +6.1% vs. +6.55% in Q3. Hardly any dip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014461776901861717)  2026-01-22T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SayNoToTrading Agree on $PAYX on $ADP. Have interest in $PAYC and $PCTY as takeout plays. $INTU and $WDAY have placed a huge amount of importance on the mid market which is where they play but have so far opted for an organic approach with Intuit Enterprise Suite and Workday GO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014733226925789359)  2026-01-23T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FOUR and $XYZ on why international opportunity is so significant: $FOUR CEO Taylor Lauber: "Interestingly when you go to markets around the world it still looks like the U.S. [--] years ago. As you mentioned you can go to some of the most established economies in the world. I'll pick a pub in London as an example and there's still a countertop terminal largely unconnected to the software and they punch in what you owe." $XYZ Owen Jennings: "What we see is that in some of these international markets we are competing more with these very legacy point of sale systems versus going head-to-head"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014868438506689003)  2026-01-24T01:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Taking a close look at Broadridge $BR. Lot to like. It's monopoly in proxy business has benefitted handsomely from increased investor participation. Can't tell why stock is down. Tokenized trading as disruptor SaaS concerns over wealth management platform.thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2015249618632593805)  2026-01-25T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Q4 Card Volume Update - Positive $XYZ $FOUR $TOST $GPN $FISV $PYPL With all major issuers reporting the data points to a really solid Q4. Total volume (credit + debit) grew 6.2% a 0.4% slowdown from Q3. BUT.Q4 last year was a STRONG quarter. If we look at it on a stacked basis (CAGR vs. 2023) growth accelerated 0.6% Q3 to Q4 exiting at 6.3% highest of the year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016234701749395953 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016234701749395953"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016234701749395953)  2026-01-27T19:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reminder on $MA tomorrow: Capital One $COF began converting their debit portfolio from $MA to Discover in October. It's going to cost $MA a couple points of U.S. volume growth starting in Q4 (already did in October per $MA's Q3 presentation). So don't be concerned about slowing U.S. volume growth at large this is a $MA specific issue. The revenue impact is likely to be modest through [----] as $MA noted 'contractual obligations' which are likely some sort of termination fee $COF is paying $MA. Greater impact in [----]. There will always be concerns about $COF moving the credit portfolio away from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016734614673412467)  2026-01-29T04:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A couple of comments on $MA: Surprise surprise consumer spending remains incredibly consistent including through the first three weeks of January. In a positive development they renewed the Capital One $COF credit card portfolio citing the importance of ubiquitous acceptance for affluent customers and businesses relative to what Discover has today. The big EPS beat in the quarter looks to be largely from government grants that were secured in late December which reduced operating expense growth by 5.5% in Q4 and benefited other income. The grants will also benefit [----] but by how much is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016888068075032759)  2026-01-29T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Getting to the point where $PYPL could buy back nearly half its float with FCF from [----] and by going to 2.5x net debt/EBITDA.just sayin'"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016929484876750915)  2026-01-29T17:40Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements


"@CarioCapital Interesting to see cruise lines hotels and airlines all trading near [--] week highs. The market knocks $FOUR for having that type of discretionary consumer exposure but won't reward it or care when the data shows spending remains relatively strong in those areas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016934134526943334)  2026-01-29T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Visa's $V -2% in AH. The issue I'm seeing is the dip in U.S. debit (+5.8% in DEC quarter vs. +7.7% in SEP quarter). Based on what the banks reported that doesn't seem right to me. I'm guessing some volume shifted to the PIN networks. Interested to see what they say on the call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2016987142363193514)  2026-01-29T21:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Visa $V: The dip in U.S. debit was from a Visa Direct customer moving volume (which is lower revenue) in-house + some lost PIN share b/c of the Capital One $COF conversion. Not a big deal more of a blip. They kept the full year guide intact. Overall spending remains solid. FX volatility which influences the spread they make when converting currency on a cross-border transaction has been especially low recently. They are now expecting FX volatility to remain at this low level through the remainder of FY26. So in a way they have de-risked guidance for that."  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017015677924618650)  2026-01-29T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Shift4 $FOUR is powering payments for the @StLouisBlues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017046718290751897)  2026-01-30T01:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Q3 -- Q4 U.S. Credit Card PV Growth: $AXP +7.0% -- +6.5% $V +7.6% -- +7.4% $MA +6.7% -- +6.6% $AXP still not gaining share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017213550553416172)  2026-01-30T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Restaurant billed business stayed steady at +9% for $AXP in Q4. Lodging ticked up from +4% to +5%. Good news for $TOST $FOUR and $XYZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017216770575159371)  2026-01-30T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ottavicap What do you think about the Hilton angle. It seems like $FOUR has at least some processing relationships with Hilton operators and with $AXPs significant partnership with $HLT the directional change in $AXPs lodging spend may be a good data point re: $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017280916138123459)  2026-01-30T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What I learned in Payments and FinTech last week Macro. Spending remains solid including through January. Although affluent remains the fastest growing category the lower end consumer continues to spend. Credit volume growth barely dipped in Q4 despite a tough prior year comparison. Both discretionary and non-discretionary spend categories grew at a healthy pace. $AXP reported continued strength in restaurants (up 9%) and double-digit growth in the other category of travel and entertainment which I believe includes car rentals cruises and events (concerts and sports). All good news (or at the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017614875707560078)  2026-01-31T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"No position in $PYPL but as an observer of the industry Im highly intrigued by their [----] guidance. As a pretext $PYPL started [----] with an outlook of roughly flat TM$ growth. They ended up at +7%. Big outperformance. For [----] they started at up at least 5% for TM$ growth ex. interest on client funds. Current guidance is for 6-7% growth but that likely includes some impact in Q4 from investments to drive habituation which will carry over into [----]. Outperformance but more marginal. I think the market based on what the company is saying expects soft to very soft guidance. The questions are:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2017986189580521529)  2026-02-01T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"PayPal $PYPL Prediction: [----] TM$ guide will be most important thing tomorrow. Based on my estimates I think $PYPL will guide TM$ of +2-4% on a reported basis and +3.5-5.5% excluding interest on client funds. Stock will be up 5-10%. Let's see how wrong I am. Good luck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018363108352258137)  2026-02-02T16:37Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements


"New CEO at PayPal $PYPL - wow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018655982738686270)  2026-02-03T12:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Worse than expected guidance for $PYPL on TM$ stock down 9%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018656987182211482)  2026-02-03T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Unfortunately I think $PYPL is reset #2 across 'legacy' Payments in just the past [--] quarters. Although not as painful as $FISV it's been a slow moving train wreck since they first hinted at a macro-driven slowdown and stepped up investments all culminating with very weak [----] guidance and a new CEO. I've said in the past that $PYPL's core checkout is most vulnerable volume stream in all of Payments. It faces unique challenges that are not shared by other volume streams for other Payments companies in my opinion. Even though it's going to be hard (impossible) to escape the narrative spiral I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018661472369316165)  2026-02-03T12:22Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"Opened a starter position in Adyen $ADYEN just now. I've been eyeing the company for quite a while and am happy with price I was able to pay. I'm going to do a more detailed write-up which I will share later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018664016076517758)  2026-02-03T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Repositioning in Payments: Selling $FISV opening starter position in $ADYEN and adding to $XYZ and $FOUR I've been kicking around a shift in my Payments holdings and this morning I took a couple of actions. I sold the entirety of my remaining $FISV position (575 shares) and used those proceeds to open a starter position in $ADYEN (10 shares) and add to $XYZ (now [---] shares) and $FOUR (now [----] shares). There's no change to my $V (604 shares) or $GPN (2100 shares) position. My goal has been to move up the quality spectrum and I feel like I've accomplished that. Again I'll have a more detailed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018699992483995927)  2026-02-03T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jszhang0912 $ADYEN and $XYZ are of higher quality IMO. I think there's a strong argument as to why $FOUR is better positioned competitively than $FISV in Payments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018706269746364690)  2026-02-03T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I think the problem with $PYPL has always been the dispersion of focus. Schulman acknowledged the mistake but Chriss repeated it. I don't know if the core checkout is 'fixable' for $PYPL but it's long past time for $PYPL to make it it's singular focus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018710309054058621)  2026-02-03T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The falling knives are coming fast and furious. How many can I catch Well see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018718796274426283)  2026-02-03T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$V and $MA up on a day when the rest of Payments is getting crushed. Theres a lesson here that I havent fully taken to heart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018733419778146347)  2026-02-03T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"They're finally coming for $SHOP and $TOST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018741611795300537)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MagicCompounds Yes I bought $adyen tweeted about it earlier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018747259291374059)  2026-02-03T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CarioCapital Except $v and $ma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018749940457984050)  2026-02-03T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Final Thoughts on PayPal $PYPL At the end of the day the momentum in 'newer' parts of the business (BNPL debit and Pay with Venmo) and Braintree (where comments were actually quite positive) are failing to outrun accelerating weakness in the Pay Now portion of branded checkout where I expect TPV will decline by a LSD amount in [----] vs. a LSD increase in [----]. Unfortunately as described by $PYPL the elements required to turn around this business are numerous and likely costly (planning for a [--] point hit to TM$ in [----] from investments with a similar level of spend beyond 2026) and a positive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2018774661463523476)  2026-02-03T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not opposed to $TOST here but $SHOP is still a reach IMO They're finally coming for $SHOP and $TOST They're finally coming for $SHOP and $TOST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019062820369821792)  2026-02-04T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Crazy Stat: SInce the start of [----] $FISV and $PYPL have combined to repurchase $43.8 billion of their own stock. The value of those shares as of today's prices: $20.7 billion. A $23 billion loss or about one-third of their current combined market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019276868441276902)  2026-02-05T05:08Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements


"https://bobhammel.substack.com/p/long-adyenr=15om6k https://bobhammel.substack.com/p/long-adyenr=15om6k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019459557332750637)  2026-02-05T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Theres always a price thats why I never say never. That being said $PYPL faces a lot of challenges in core checkout which is an extremely important part of their business. If you think they can stabilize it or return it to growth without significantly diluting profitability then the stock should be a home run from here. I dont see that happening thats why I dont hold a position and would not consider it at this price. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019811984477159535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019811984477159535"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019811984477159535)  2026-02-06T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Crazy week for $BILL. The stock got puked hard M-Th w/SaaS sell-off reported strong results last night and Bloomberg now reporting H&F a private equity fund is in talks to acquire it. Past comps say $75 is realistic (still 60% upside from current price) but have SaaS PE deal multiples repriced materially due to events of the past couple weeks Well see. No position in $BILL. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019832590644003098 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019832590644003098"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019832590644003098)  2026-02-06T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"First outdoor run of the new year. Had to hurdle a few small snowbanks but overall went great"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019880290617835674)  2026-02-06T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Spotify like most enterprises works with multiple acquirers. I can read articles about both Stripe and Braintree also powering certain payments for Spotify. Of course I cant tell by the Checkout press release who they may displacing or whether its just an additional payment feature Spotify is taking from Checkout. I definitely dont see it as Adyen going from an all to nothing relationship with Spotify. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020110892080259557 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020110892080259557"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2020110892080259557)  2026-02-07T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"While PayPal and the SaaS blowup stole the show earnings from a wide range of Payments and FinTech companies were positive. Here's a recap of the most important points: PayPal (PYPL): Alex Chriss is http://x.com/i/article/2020520166853873666 http://x.com/i/article/2020520166853873666"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2020531444385255918)  2026-02-08T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some (very) quick thoughts on the past week which was more good than bad even if the stock prices told a different story. $PYPL $CPAY $LSPD $JKHY $FISV $AFRM and $DAVE. https://t.co/OIRukckTru https://t.co/OIRukckTru"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2020532624532336910)  2026-02-08T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@NifoHuts Fair. Definitely not ideal if Adyen went from processing 100% of Spotify to 0% . I dont think thats what will end up happening but just as a point of reference Spotifys total subscription revenue represents only 1% of Adyens total processed volume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2020577892389052610)  2026-02-08T19:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Fiserv $FISV guiding to 2% organic revenue growth and $8.15 of EPS at midpoint for [----] largely as expected. Financial Solutions revenue fell 2% in Q4. I'm most interested in Q4 Clover volume growth and any commentary on win rates/pipeline post pricing clawbacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021196962406728011)  2026-02-10T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thoughts on Fiserv $FISV Stock is up today likely because there was no additional surprises and the preliminary [----] guide shared last quarter was reaffirmed. That being said revenue will decline in the first half of [----] with an up to MSD decline for Financial Solutions which has really been a business that was talked about growing at the high-end of MSD to now hopeful of a return to LSD growth by [----]. Clover volume growth was weaker-than-expected in Q4 (+9% underlying +6% reported) due to a soft November in U.S. restaurants and retail which $FISV framed as in-line with broader industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021243209544835570)  2026-02-10T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Good earnings great guidance for $SHOP and stock down 7%. I didnt pick up anything too worrisome on call. Bottom line stock may be too expensive given all the unknowns around software and agentic commerce even though it looks like theyre handling it well so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021602134924382286)  2026-02-11T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If OpenAI runs the front-end and @stripe powers the back-end where does that leave $SHOP Answer: probably at a lower valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021632262685573399)  2026-02-11T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SamuelTind69643 @stripe What Im saying is agentic commerce is a very nascent technology. There are a lot of unknowns in terms of how value will accrue. A high multiple such that $SHOP has conveys a level of certainty. With less certainty there is the possibility of a lower multiple for $SHOP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021653937322078389)  2026-02-11T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"As a long-term investor these are kind of the moments you wait for. I'm not saying stocks won't go lower (they probably will) but feel like we're finally starting to get some good deals. Adding across the board. Bigger buys in $INTU and new positions in $BR $SPGI and $MSCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021982359760076806)  2026-02-12T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Adyen's $ADYEN Headcount vs. Peers Although I won't knock a company over investing for the long-term $ADYEN's headcount is expected to reach 4.5x its pre-pandemic base by YE26 (assumes [---] additions in [----] the midpoint of its guide). The reacceleration in hiring in [----] which is expected to result in flattish EBITDA margins vs. [----] was the most negative guidance-related surprise for me. Although I can't speak to Toast $TOST Block $XYZ was recently in the news because it is reportedly planning to layoff 10% of its employees bringing its headcount to about 10k or 2.6x its pre-pandemic base"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021996549832589613)  2026-02-12T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Toast $TOST Setup Into Earnings I think the million $ question for $TOST is whether the stock has gotten beaten up enough to the point where it can rally on decent-to-good results which I certainly expect. One must remember that $TOST is a prolific sandbagger so the initial [----] guide will likely not be awe-inspiring. Last quarter they previewed their hope to 'exceed' gross profit growth of more than 20% in [----] and for margins to be 'flat-to-slightly up' versus [----]. I'll be interested to hear what $TOST has to say about U.S. restaurants. $FISV noted November weakness but improved results in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022021180648042566)  2026-02-12T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@skytooth Just general dislocation between price and fundamentals creating opportunity in some quality names. $spgi insider buy was after the fact but nice to see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022133750264737993)  2026-02-13T02:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Valuation stats for Shopify $SHOP Adyen $ADYEN and Toast $TOST. These are based on my estimates and exclude SBC. To me $ADYEN looks really attractive here. $TOST very reasonably priced as well. I'm long $ADYEN and bought some yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022726583363280985)  2026-02-14T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Capital One $COF is buying Brex (corporate cards spend management software) for $5.15B. Peaked at private market value of $12.3B in [----]. Annualized revenue of around $700MM 7x. Meanwhile $BILL sitting out there at $4.9B mkt cap w/$1.6B of revenue still on block"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2014447758745141712)  2026-01-22T21:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The great Ron Clarke CEO of Corpay $CPAY on demand for stablecoin payouts across its significant portfolio of B2B payments: cricketsno demand so far. Obviously things can change but an interesting answer nonetheless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019373589410013278)  2026-02-05T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Getting into $WU territory for a couple of these names $GPN $FIS and $PYPL Interesting stuff in payments and related. https://t.co/kGjinkLZ7l Interesting stuff in payments and related. https://t.co/kGjinkLZ7l"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019401619558003075)  2026-02-05T13:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Long Adyen $ADYEN Unlike legacy peers that have cobbled together systems products sales and distribution from a long list of acquisitions $ADYEN has built a modern payments engine entirely from scratch complete with local acquiring licenses and banking charters to control its own destiny enabling a merchant to sell anywhere across any channel and accept virtually any payment method all from a single low-cost platform backed by powerful insights derived from $ADYEN's extensive data. The bulk of $ADYEN's growth does not come from adding new logos but from the lower risk proposition of capturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019459554795249866)  2026-02-05T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I say this with all seriousness: give me a good reason why $FISV $GPN $PYPL shouldn't consider a variable dividend program ala $CME or at least a hefty regular dividend that brings the yield more in-line with a stock like $PAYX Crazy Stat: SInce the start of [----] $FISV and $PYPL have combined to repurchase $43.8 billion of their own stock. The value of those shares as of today's prices: $20.7 billion. A $23 billion loss or about one-third of their current combined market cap. Crazy Stat: SInce the start of [----] $FISV and $PYPL have combined to repurchase $43.8 billion of their own stock. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019494165197820025)  2026-02-05T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Adyen $ADYEN -16% on earnings. Issue for me is step-UP in hiring in [----] to 550-650 people vs [---] in [----] which is going to cause EBITDA margin to be roughly flat vs. 53% in [----]. +20-22% net revenue guide seems okay with more macro uncertainty embedded. Overall doesnt feel like a down 16% report but thats how Payments is running right now. About 27x LTM FCF w/minimal SBC seems like a pretty attractive multiple for this business so Ill most likely be adding to this position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021886003607126093)  2026-02-12T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Answer is $TOST has not been beaten up enough. They essentially set the initial FY26 guide in-line with what they previewed in Q3: 20-22% gross profit growth and 24% EBITDA growth. Down 14% AH. Toast $TOST Setup Into Earnings I think the million $ question for $TOST is whether the stock has gotten beaten up enough to the point where it can rally on decent-to-good results which I certainly expect. One must remember that $TOST is a prolific sandbagger so the initial Toast $TOST Setup Into Earnings I think the million $ question for $TOST is whether the stock has gotten beaten up enough to the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022059105247260913)  2026-02-12T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Monopoly in proxy distribution and processing. Not worth it for institutions to develop capability so its outsourced to $BR. NYSE sets fee which is passed through to shareholders. A lot of tailwinds for greater market participation (zero commission trades and direct indexing) which drives position growth and ultimately $BR revenue and profit. Dont see tokenized securities as a threat because they will require a proxy distribution just like a security held in street name. Finally trades at an attractive price so I pulled trigger. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022133045914910861"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022133045914910861)  2026-02-13T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueNotDeadYet Theres always hope for $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022310321721917443)  2026-02-13T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TomSmith839 Organically $FOUR will have lower revenue growth in [----] likely mid-teens but I agree its really cheap here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022331480635252950)  2026-02-13T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thoughts on FinTech Lenders The conventional wisdom when the interest rate cap was floated was that it would benefit BNPL $AFRM $KLAR $XYZ $PYPL $SEZL and short-term liquidity products $DAVE $CHYM $XYZ as a reduction in available credit could potentially move a significant portion of the population to these products. I dont believe its as simple as that. Yes a cap on interest rates focused exclusively on credit cards will benefit BNPL and short-term liquidity products. But is it inconceivable to believe that eventually similar scrutiny will be trained on these products which in some cases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2011500950632931391)  2026-01-14T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'll never say never on a stock but this is almost certainly a non-investable trendline for PayPal $PYPL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019491608744669395 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019491608744669395"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019491608744669395)  2026-02-05T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I do follow Gusto Rippling and Deel as much as one can. They're legitimate threats but I'm not sure the emergence of AI tips the scale in their favor more heavily Also with $ADP and $PAYX you have PEO exposure which is a full HR outsourcing solution along with the liability shift. Unlikely that would be at risk from AI or companies like Gusto. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019964307287511228 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019964307287511228"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019964307287511228)  2026-02-07T02:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A lot going w/this $FISV slide on Clover. I think focus will be on "soft November in US restaurant and retail" although bounced back in Dec/Jan and 10-15% growth for [----]. Really tough to make a definitive read through to $XYZ $FOUR $TOST given all changes happening at $FISV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021201063479738670)  2026-02-10T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SPGI has my attention now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021201240307400772)  2026-02-10T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Stock_Fox__ They said [----] was going to be all about capturing revenue growth and drop a 7-8% guide pathetic. Unfortunately I think the mid market is getting very competitive with $INTU moving up and $WDAY moving down. This company has to find a home somewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021699891685158963)  2026-02-11T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$TOST mentioned sports and entertainment (golf specifically) as a potential expansion vertical relevant to $FOUR as well as $GPN who tries to play there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022100348052418682)  2026-02-13T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"In the U.S. payroll/HCM companies generate $210/year of software/service revenue per employee. For those serving SMBs $ADP $PAYX w/fuller suite it can be as high as $400/year. More basic payroll services by $INTU are much less. If you assume an average salary of $65k payroll and HCM software/service fees work out to just 0.6% of total employee costs at the high-end. Is that burden enough to justify SMBs developing their own payroll/HCM features Of course not. Is it possible new AI tools will spur a wave of AI-native payroll/HCM SaaS companies Possibly. But customers don't magically appear."  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2019929893778178188)  2026-02-07T00:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"CEO Chad Richison of Paycom $PAYC on the companys ability to create software for every adjacent industry within a matter of weeks or months. Trying to spin it as a positive but the market likely does not see it that way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2021722276194853000)  2026-02-11T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Regarding $TOST they set initial [----] gross profit and EBITDA guide at $1755M and $520M and beat them by 7.5% ($1887M) and 21% ($633M) respectively. These guys sandbag so one should take that into account before crushing the stock AH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022060744486137923)  2026-02-12T21:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Couple caveats on $FOUR. My model is overly conservative for them while more 'realistic' for $ADYEN $SHOP and $TOST. Plus market cap and EV reflect Global Blue acquisition but LTM FCF does not only one quarter. My [----] EBITDA estimate assumes $75m of acquisition-related costs which is not added back. No way to get around it the stock is now very cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022814836208316754 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022814836208316754"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bobspaysubstack/status/2022814836208316754)  2026-02-14T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing