# ![@adrewrogers Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1857941108732379136.png) @adrewrogers Andrew Rogers

Andrew Rogers posts on X about $dlo, dlo, $celh, business the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1857941108732379136/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1857941108732379136/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -8.60%
- [--] Month [------] -24%
- [--] Months [-------] -49%
- [--] Year [---------] +29%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1857941108732379136/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1857941108732379136/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -57%
- [--] Months [---] +285%
- [--] Year [---] +186%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1857941108732379136/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1857941108732379136/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -0.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.40%
- [--] Months [-----] +76%
- [--] Year [-----] +380%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1857941108732379136/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1857941108732379136/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks) 

**Social topic influence**
[$dlo](/topic/$dlo) #11, [dlo](/topic/dlo), [$celh](/topic/$celh), [business](/topic/business), [strong](/topic/strong), [$crox](/topic/$crox), [growth](/topic/growth), [in the](/topic/in-the), [investment](/topic/investment), [company](/topic/company)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@carmoanalyse](/creator/undefined) [@thezackzhu](/creator/undefined) [@stepbystep42](/creator/undefined) [@fazalbalaj](/creator/undefined) [@bjmtweets](/creator/undefined) [@riviandd](/creator/undefined) [@wearycenturion](/creator/undefined) [@firecz](/creator/undefined) [@daveyjuice](/creator/undefined) [@lowiqtrader](/creator/undefined) [@alc2022](/creator/undefined) [@patientinvestt](/creator/undefined) [@rezahajiloud](/creator/undefined) [@arnytrezzi](/creator/undefined) [@swisstportfolio](/creator/undefined) [@zoomyzoomm](/creator/undefined) [@justinrtipton](/creator/undefined) [@tacticzh](/creator/undefined) [@gciftci2](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[DLocal Limited (DLO)](/topic/$dlo) [Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH)](/topic/$celh) [Crocs, Inc. (CROX)](/topic/$crox) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Rivian Automotive, Inc.  (RIVN)](/topic/$rivn) [The Root Network (ROOT)](/topic/$root) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)](/topic/$pep) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)](/topic/$lmnd) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [WIX.com Ltd. (WIX)](/topic/$wix) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Gains (GAINS)](/topic/gains) [PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)](/topic/$pags) [CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)](/topic/$cava) [Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)](/topic/$mnst) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"I think that $DLO is going to at least $20/share in [----]. $400 million in [----] gross profit with 70% Adjusted EBITDA / gross profit gives $280 million in [----] Adjusted EBITDA. A fair 20x multiple on this is around $20/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1874185444663112024)  2024-12-31T20:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$CROX is very interesting with high ROIC and trading at around 6x FCF. I think the low price is likely mistrust in management with the HeyDude acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1874997294128615639)  2025-01-03T01:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLO should be able to grow gross profit at a 35% CAGR over the coming [--] years. Corresponding [----] Adjusted EBITDA is $1.008 billion using 75% Adjusted EBITDA/gross profit. 20x multiple is 7x the current market cap. This is a 5-year CAGR of 45%. https://open.substack.com/pub/adrewrog/p/dlocal-an-asymmetric-opportunityr=1lxsfa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/adrewrog/p/dlocal-an-asymmetric-opportunityr=1lxsfa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875258641772900402)  2025-01-03T19:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline Completely agree with this -- there is not much coverage on $DLO so it's a lonely place but believe it is going to $20 billion by [----] or $70/share. Seems absurd to say but I think that scaling TPV to [---] billion should easily support this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875367351346196799)  2025-01-04T02:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"For companies to grow significantly some aspect of growth must be self-perpetuating to overcome the inefficiencies of bureaucracy. $NFLX is a great example increased subscribers begets higher content spend begets better customer value begets increased subscribers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875561110826533065)  2025-01-04T15:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$DLO is looking strong in [----] with 76% YoY TPV growth during Black Friday. [----] will include more favorable comps and operating leverage. https://www.dlocal.com/press-releases/dlocal-achieves-76-yoy-growth-during-black-friday-2024/ https://www.dlocal.com/press-releases/dlocal-achieves-76-yoy-growth-during-black-friday-2024/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875686944254128429)  2025-01-04T23:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline The Adyen concerns dont hold much weight for me. Adyen launched in Brazil in [----] and $DLO is founded in [----]. $DLO has been in competition with Adyen for the last [--] years and has grown TPV from [--] to $25 billion. $DLO clearly has product market fit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875691157411508597)  2025-01-04T23:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1) $DLO took a decision to invest for long-term growth in engineering talent. This temporarily reduced EBITDA margins from 75% of gross profit to 65%. Management expects significant operating leverage in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959447161627132)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2) $DLO results were affected by macroeconomics in Argentina which was 3rd largest market. This resulted in a drop of $60 million of annualized revenue and significant gross profit headwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959448642126239)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3) $DLO results were also affected by macroeconomics in Nigeria which was another significant market. This resulted in a drop of $40 million of annualized revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959450005352741)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"4) $DLO was affected by repricing of their largest merchant in Brazil their largest market. Per management comments in recent calls this merchant was significantly above $DLO average take rates for Brazil and there are not concerns of other merchants following suit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959451381076062)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"5) $DLO has been significantly impacted by strong U.S. dollar which has corresponded to weakening emerging market currencies. Tightening cycle in Brazil coupled with expected rate cuts in the U.S. should help to reverse this trend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959452781949380)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Summary: $DLO has been negatively impacted by a confluence of external factors in [----]. [----] should see normalization for the majority of these concerns and will drive significant growth in Adjusted EBITDA. This is why $DLO is going to $20 or more in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875959454103171300)  2025-01-05T17:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnnistonJ23 We should see an acceleration in TPV growth after their announcement of 76% YoY for Black Friday. FX continues to be a headwind but I am expecting a strong Q4 report"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1875990848082686043)  2025-01-05T19:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"How many $PLTR bulls actually understand software engineering Why would software engineers want to use a limited platform instead of opting for more flexibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876081514410365389)  2025-01-06T01:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@alc2022 Controversial I agree with this many investors do not realize that companies invest aggressively to pursue growth. Accounting standards favor legacy companies where hard assets are depreciated over years whereas R&D and marketing costs are yearly expenses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876318536265834842)  2025-01-06T17:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$CROX management are focused on capital allocation in the following areas: 1) SG&A marketing investment to accelerate growth at HeyDude 2) International growth of the Crocs brand 3) Shareholder repurchases $CROX is very interesting at 6X FCF. What are others thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876349090747097550)  2025-01-06T19:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I predict that $PLTR will grow to $180 trillion in market cap or $7500 per share. By the end of 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401798443078008)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1) As $PLTR develops the ontology for each vertical they will be able to rapidly increase productivity in each vertical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401799974060043)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2) Due to rapid efficiency gains companies using $PLTR will be forced to adopt their all-knowingly ontological platform or die"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401801223651729)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3) At this point $PLTR the only way to estimate revenue is to use a portion of global GDP as they are effectively the business OS for computation for the entire global economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401802520010832)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4) Companies will willingly pay $PLTR 30% of revenues for these ridiculous gains in productivity. Therefore we can estimate that $PLTR revenues will be accountable for 10% of global GPD since all GDP is in some form a derivative of corporate revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401804017381839)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5) This is approximately $12 trillion in revenues. Since $PLTR will have such massive scale they will have asymptotically low costs and SBC is near-zero ;). We can conservatively estimate EBITDA margins of 95%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876401805447544963)  2025-01-06T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@QCompounding Totally agree Why invest in your number [--] idea when you can invest in your number [--] During the 1980-1990 era Buffet invested insurance float in only [--] stocks. Capital Cities Washington Post GEICO Coca Cola Gillette. Thats concentration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876442191058309511)  2025-01-07T01:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@wintrgrnbuffalo What if AWS and Azure blow up to 40% YoY growth AI CAPEX is front-loaded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876442684245598561)  2025-01-07T01:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@RihardJarc Strongly agree AI applications require more memory than sequential applications this is a boon for $MU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876704696892625284)  2025-01-07T18:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@patientinvestt $HIMS reminds me a lot of $NFLX but the TAM is much larger. Why couldn't we see a $NFLX sized platform for health care but with significantly higher ARPU Don't even need a fraction of that for a 10x. Great management team as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876801591686070522)  2025-01-08T01:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@patientinvestt Seems like you know your Joel Greenblatt I think $CROX is very interesting but I don't know how much I trust the management team. What are your thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876802326716948863)  2025-01-08T01:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats the difference between a data lake and a data platform If you don't know check out my thoughts as a software engineer on investing in the AI revolution 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/adrewrog/p/a-software-engineers-thoughts-onr=1lxsfa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/adrewrog/p/a-software-engineers-thoughts-onr=1lxsfa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876840635832938516)  2025-01-08T03:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@RezahajilouD What are your thoughts on $CROX management Do you like HeyDude acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876867908464251128)  2025-01-08T05:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Cashflowfarming I have experience using okta Great product and seems like an interesting opportunity. How is management with SBC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876871640606257661)  2025-01-08T06:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$PLTR builds an ontology but what does that even mean"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999871732887971)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1) Modern enterprise have large stores of structured and unstructured data called data lakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999873490194527)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2) Engineers and data scientists pull from this data lake to find insights and build AI applications"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999875138564414)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3) Data platforms are applications that can run on top of data lakes. Data platforms do data cleaning and processing to limit the work for technology workers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999876594065766)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4) $PLTR is a data platform that is also capable of finding insights between unstructured data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999877961326783)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5) For certain use cases this can be very useful. However there are other data platforms like $SNOW and Databricks that provide more flexibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999879718744320)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Summary: Data platforms are mission-critical for the modern enterprise. $PLTR is a data platform but there are other platforms that may be better depending on the use case. Is this interesting content Let me know your thoughts 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1876999881367105674)  2025-01-08T14:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline Its hard when things are so cheap in Brazil I was tempted to open a position in $PAGS but had a similar concern. Do you have ideas about where you are thinking of moving the capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877007551813886404)  2025-01-08T15:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline If a company is paying dividends it is likely there are better opportunities in other securities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877061941987827967)  2025-01-08T18:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I think that $PYPL is in structural decline. The fundamental purpose of the original business model was to establish trust. The blue button allowed for higher take rates due to the increase in conversion. This is different now because of $AAPL. What are others thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877120415547453644)  2025-01-08T22:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Journeyman_15 @gainify_io $HIMS is trading at 10x EBITDA if you look at long term margins. Great management very interesting for sure. I dont have a position but Ive been thinking about it a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877222724646346932)  2025-01-09T05:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Div_Nation89 Still buying $DLO because I think its too much of a steal at $11. Thinking about $HIMS as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877223523770413089)  2025-01-09T05:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@RezahajilouD No position in $CROX but I have been learning more about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877349673435820521)  2025-01-09T13:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@arny_trezzi $PLTR is only one data platform of many and has postive and negative quantities. Different engineering teams will chose different platforms for different use cases. $PLTR lacks some flexibility and has pretty high upfront investment on the installation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877430283240157476)  2025-01-09T19:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@arny_trezzi $PLTR and valuation of course"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877430393185382653)  2025-01-09T19:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My circle of competence is SUPER narrow. I know about cloud computing AI and payments. Thats pretty much it and consequently I only have investments in those areas. $DLO and $AMZN. I dont need to know a lot about everything to do well. What do others think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877479993460109358)  2025-01-09T22:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@themattharbaugh Love the portfolio and focus on FCF / ROIC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877808124964344150)  2025-01-10T20:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Studying $ADYEN great company great product strong competitive advantages. $ADYEN is the low cost provider and will stay the lowest cost provider due to economies of scale. In the words of Charlie Munger its a cinch. BUT the price is too high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877809580513640469)  2025-01-10T20:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLO CEO Pedro Arnt told CNBC that he didnt want to comment on rumours adding: While there would be a fiduciary duty to shareholders to entertain takeovers the company is not for sale." Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dlocal-secures-uk-payment-institution-151145574.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dlocal-secures-uk-payment-institution-151145574.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877833427350687866)  2025-01-10T21:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline I think $DLO is the better investment and both companies have a bright future ahead of them. Different needs different markets different solution. I don't own $ADYEN and its a long way from where I would purchase. It could fall 50% and still be too expensive for my rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877841455273685349)  2025-01-10T22:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@topsecretstocks I like a lot of these names What are your thoughts on $HIMS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877841832228385111)  2025-01-10T22:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@SwissTPortfolio Great question. The tariffs proposed on U.S. imports would not affect $DLO as they are supporting U.S. (and other global companies) doing business abroad so they won't be impacted by U.S tariffs. $DLO is the other way around basically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877847431066308958)  2025-01-10T22:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@alc2022 Inference and training computation are very different and have different CPU demand. Inference can be run on most CPU(s) and companies use many chips including Graviton Intel (these suck) and AMD. It's not the same thing as the competitive advantage $NVDA has"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877903108384166296)  2025-01-11T02:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@TSOH_Investing I have 40% at cost in $DLO but I wasn't able to stomach more than that. Do you run concentrated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1877919752003166581)  2025-01-11T03:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@stonkmetal Modest negative week for US equities. The well priced names like $PLTR $TSLA are most impacted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878090699301659122)  2025-01-11T14:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@zoomyzoomm $PDD high ROIC low price great management. I think we will have to wait and see what Profits are unsustainably high means. If it gets much cheaper I might have to buy it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878091242279518317)  2025-01-11T14:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"What do $NFLX $SPOT and #Starlink all have in common They all offer valued services for emerging market consumers but found accept payments to be a significant challenge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878097979334115540)  2025-01-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"4) This is time consuming and expensive to run. A single integration is ideal for operation overhead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878097989085925494)  2025-01-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5) Global team decides to use $DLO for a single integration and access to ALL the markets they need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878097991753494995)  2025-01-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Summary: This customer journey reflects many global companies journey to using $DLO. $DLO is often the only option for some of the markets they provide access to. $DLO is the only company laser focused on this HUGE problem. Source: https://investor.dlocal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Investor-Day-presentation.pdf https://investor.dlocal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Investor-Day-presentation.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878097993850634368)  2025-01-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@HiddenMonopoly ROIC is a key indicator of a resilient business model great management and attractive economics. Its my starting point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878114812409925711)  2025-01-11T16:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@BelgianInvest0r @realroseceline If I need an excel spreadsheet the IRR isnt high enough for my hurdle rate. 10-15% returns I would rather just buy an index fund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878169242354290782)  2025-01-11T19:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$CROX I have decided that I am no longer interested in this idea for the following: 1) Management I dislike the HeyDude acquisition. Most acquisitions fail and iconic brands are difficult to build 2) Growth or lack of growth. I dont want to buy things I have to sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878447190814728334)  2025-01-12T14:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My [----] annual portfolio review is out In summary - + 33.07% - Performance driven by $AMZN and opportunistic purchase of $DLO - Exited position in Delivery Hero - Updates on the format of my publication Want to know more Check out my substack in my bio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878497867179921632)  2025-01-12T17:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@FazalBalaj Yes that's it I understand the two positions that I have VERY well it's a volatile approach but it has worked for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878508713771769858)  2025-01-12T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@realroseceline Thanks Much appreciated😁 I share your concern on take rates I think take rates will remain higher on cross-border transactions but over time $DLO will have to develop new products to offset inevitable take rate declines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878535238571143273)  2025-01-12T20:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Yggdendro Im a $DLO bull but Bear argument is competitive dynamics from Stripe / Adyen drive down take rates. Also short term macro volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1878972680805953602)  2025-01-14T01:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@FazalBalaj Ive been thinking about $HIMS a lot but I havent formed any conclusions. Its hard for me to convince myself to buy something I say no to almost all my ideas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879157593056366670)  2025-01-14T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLO What is an underrated stock that nobody talks about What is an underrated stock that nobody talks about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879244889080344598)  2025-01-14T19:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueStockGeek I work on investing research on the weekends for fun For me investing is so fascinating and intellectually stimulating that I do it in my free time because I want to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879245221659312251)  2025-01-14T19:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ashton_1nvests Agreed AWS going to surprise in coming decade and retail TAM is enormous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879410096415150310)  2025-01-15T06:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"This is the typical $DLO customer journey. What do $NFLX $SPOT and #Starlink all have in common They all offer valued services for emerging market consumers but found accept payments to be a significant challenge. What do $NFLX $SPOT and #Starlink all have in common They all offer valued services for emerging market consumers but found accept payments to be a significant challenge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879670950813442420)  2025-01-15T23:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AlphaMoat $DLO is my idea [--] right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879881509378892088)  2025-01-16T13:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline @Stock_Opine Whats interesting is GeneralAtlantic is seed investor in both Adyen / dLocal and they sold Adyen in [----] but still own like 30% of dLocal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1879958458398843286)  2025-01-16T18:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@BramVGenechten Completely agree with all of this cloud growth is very underestimated in the coming decades. $AMZN is my biggest winner held for years now and I think its going to keep going for decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1880021430534099348)  2025-01-16T22:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I've gotten a lot of questions about $DLO competitive advantages and take rates. I wanted to share these customer stories I found which helped to clarify this for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1880034316199297423)  2025-01-16T23:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@EquityBrian Moat is also overstated as its technical enough that people don't really understand it but think they do. There are alternatives to $PLTR that are also very good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1880389813779722431)  2025-01-17T23:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 I also see a lot of people claiming $AMD has this huge moat in "AI inference" but don't realize most AI inference can be run on basically any CPU. There is no moat for AI inference it's a race to the bottom. The winner is the cloud companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1880819735400779937)  2025-01-19T03:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@franflores95 @realroseceline @mysticmarkets $PAGS seems like a decent business but the Brazil macro risk is too high for me. If it were more diversified across LATAM I would consider it more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1881701120160264588)  2025-01-21T13:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"New post is out on my greatest mistakes The story of how I missed the $CVNA bankruptcy misjudged $PYPL and bought $BTC at the top. 👇 https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/sharing-my-greatest-investing-mistakes https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/sharing-my-greatest-investing-mistakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1881896849961013732)  2025-01-22T02:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$NFLX is an incredibly interesting case study to me. Despite decades of robust subscription growth people consistently say $NFLX has no competitive advantage. $NFLX has a competitive advantage they can amortize content over a larger audience. Thats it. Today Netflix crossed the $400B market cap making it more valuable than all US movie and TV studios combined. This is why you should never dismiss disruption. https://t.co/4LTgf0f40U Today Netflix crossed the $400B market cap making it more valuable than all US movie and TV studios combined. This is why you should never dismiss disruption."  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882139242471829826)  2025-01-22T18:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Brazilian real and other EM currencies have been appreciating against USD. EM trades at all time lows in terms of valuation. $DLO is looking strong this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882442863591694840)  2025-01-23T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline Thanks for the shout out I see a lot of people back out marketing investment since its positive ROI and then also assume growth continues. Its one or the other really and its why I dont like SaaS that much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882524415348650097)  2025-01-23T20:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@FazalBalaj Not particularly because even if Waymo is worth [--] trillion thats not even like a 50% return. If they spin it off I will wait for everyone to pile in and buy it once it crashes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882594340285063401)  2025-01-24T01:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Incredible post. And basically nobody besides Jeff Bezos held on that long. Long-Term Perspective: Amazon $AMZN IPO -- today $18/share (IPO) [----] IPO shares = $18000 Split (4x): [--] IPO share = [---] shares [----] IPO shares = [------] shares [------] shares $235.42/share (close today) = $56500800 Investing $18000 = $56500800 Long-Term Perspective: Amazon $AMZN IPO -- today $18/share (IPO) [----] IPO shares = $18000 Split (4x): [--] IPO share = [---] shares [----] IPO shares = [------] shares [------] shares $235.42/share (close today) = $56500800 Investing $18000 = $56500800"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882613629746634957)  2025-01-24T02:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@FazalBalaj Why only pick from those three"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882625004141162941)  2025-01-24T03:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Starting to think $HIMS is a great business with a competitive advantage. Deep dive is coming soon on my Substack but I will share thoughts here. Thread:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1882868778801017229)  2025-01-24T19:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$PLTR is a $180 billion company growing 30% with $400 million in operating income. This is 450x operating income. Seems a little high🤨"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1883156831503307072)  2025-01-25T14:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@realroseceline I've also been deep diving on it doing a write up pretty soon. I think that HEYDUDE is in a unique position because the oversold inventories in [----] and their distributors are right-sizing capacity. But if you look at the brand trends they are actually pretty good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1884083026222817548)  2025-01-28T03:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline See my problem in I am 40% at cost in $DLO and now my $DLO is 60%. Need something else for my unvested RSU's coming in a few months. Also now that I am doing this blogging thing I need to own more positions so I have more to write about. 😆"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1884085186448740460)  2025-01-28T03:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3) In effect management paid no cash for the acquisition. Opportunity cost to repurchase shares is the only consideration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1884463246343561483)  2025-01-29T04:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4) Recent performance of HEYDUDE is a temporary situation caused by overselling inventory in [----]. Distributors are right-sizing inventory which is causing the contraction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1884463247648027071)  2025-01-29T04:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5) However Google trends indicate the brand is still growing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1884463248910549164)  2025-01-29T04:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FIRE__cz Good point Im sure there will be questions on the Q4 call on that I will give my thoughts there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1885675299062317122)  2025-02-01T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SwissTPortfolio I wanted to update my thoughts here I think you are correct this is a risk that could lead to a stronger US dollar and would consequently impact $DLO through currency exchange rate volatility. I dont think XB transaction volume is affected though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1885682545506869579)  2025-02-01T13:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A few sources have told me that HEYDUDE is actually a great brand. $CROX management could be onto something. Does anyone have experience on HEYDUDE trends I have heard they are popular with teenagers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1887908936575021390)  2025-02-07T16:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@tradingcurrent At $85 billion TPV that $3 billion revenue is probably 30% FCF. Were talking two doubles of TPV (which could happen relatively quickly like [--] years) and this stock could be pushing $1 billion in FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1888298963444674900)  2025-02-08T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$LMND seems like the most blatantly obvious use of AI that people are overlooking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1894954446754308595)  2025-02-27T03:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@carmo_analyse @StepByStep_42 @realroseceline Gross profit growth = TPV growth - take rate decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1895951988208386261)  2025-03-01T21:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@carmo_analyse @StepByStep_42 @realroseceline Thats because of accounting Adyen reports the equivalent of $DLO gross profit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1895961159607677432)  2025-03-01T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StepByStep_42 @carmo_analyse @realroseceline Adyen's reported revenues is the same as $DLO gross profit. Adyen only reports their revenue net of acquiring costs while $DLO revenue includes acquiring costs. An apples to apples comparison is $DLO gross profit to Adyen net revenues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1896004969154990231)  2025-03-02T01:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Portfolio update I sold shares in $AMZN representing approximately 17% of my portfolio. I have made this decision due to opportunity cost as smaller market cap companies offer higher prospective returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1896938941892403253)  2025-03-04T15:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CELH my opinion has changed after the acquisition of Alani Nu. My thoughts are below. https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/celsius-alani-nu-acquisition-thoughts https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/celsius-alani-nu-acquisition-thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1897485536605987187)  2025-03-06T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jkess54 My thesis on $DLO is unchanged and it is around 50% of the portfolio now after the drop and 40% at cost. I have a very strong conviction but I need to protect myself against hubris and 40% at cost is my limit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1897692629535527362)  2025-03-06T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Watching $CAVA stock I have already done a deep dive. Great business underlying store economics yields 25% IRR strong management but the price is ridiculous. The stock might become interesting to me if the bottom falls out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1898515030598983755)  2025-03-08T23:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"March Portfolio Update: $AMZN stake reduced from 44% to 27% to opportunistically purchase $CELH after Alani Nu acquisition at $25/share. Did nothing else happy to keep compounding by doing nothing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1906854655868424586)  2025-03-31T23:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"People dont seem to understand the whole tariff goal is about creating basic economic incentives to create manufacturing jobs. Patience think long term dont be irrational or emotional in times of change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1907647951221981513)  2025-04-03T04:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We need to have awareness that we dont know the future; regardless of the sentiment of the crowd the future is not knowable. The rational strategy is to buy great companies at low prices which always works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1910115534240112969)  2025-04-09T23:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline So funny to be discussing who is here first reality is that everyone is still here first with $DLO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1946396178439938302)  2025-07-19T02:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline But then what"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1956542574828626284)  2025-08-16T02:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zoomyzoomm GA bought more $DLO at $11/share after the Muddy Waters report in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1957252851547124033)  2025-08-18T01:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline Went into an $LMND and arrived at a similar conclusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1959977365213204505)  2025-08-25T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Got a quote from $LMND and it was 2X market average and then decided to go with Allstate which was also a good CX. Before everyone says $LMND is better pricing risk et cetera I dont believe this to be the case because the home has a new roof and is not CAT exposed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1960749586730873172)  2025-08-27T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Rockstar deal puts the $CELH portfolios total share at 20% and the Alani Nu distribution is likely to add more share gain. Wondering if $CELH can work some magic on Rockstar and improve brand positioning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1961415880006324655)  2025-08-29T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLO is an absolute steal right now at less than $13 after this Q2 report"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1963608969080873170)  2025-09-04T14:23Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements


"Great piece on $DLO and reflects my sentiment from studying the business. I believe the market does not appreciate the quality of the business and I am cautiously optimistic about seeing a significant move over 3-5 years to $20 billion EV. A short piece on $DLO and why im bullish over a 3-5 year time frame: 👇 dLocal is in a unique position where it operates a capital-light business with exceptional unit economics. This has allowed it to be profitable almost from the get-go. Its offering allows it to simply ride https://t.co/30FvlhKYpw A short piece on $DLO and why im bullish over a 3-5 year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1963962414811992139)  2025-09-05T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I think that the majority of the alpha with $CELH is gone now after a significant turnaround with the Alani Nu acquisition. I have posted my thoughts on the business and my intentions with the position in my portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964397663765614612)  2025-09-06T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/celsius-pepsico-strategic-partnership https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/celsius-pepsico-strategic-partnership"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964397726860259548)  2025-09-06T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bjmtweets Yeah I think theres still more to come with Alani Nu distribution gains and the PepsiCo captaincy but the growth is limited and I am looking for a good exit once I think the thesis is more fully played out and I hit long term capital gains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964739323863183436)  2025-09-07T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bjmtweets @realroseceline This has more to do with accounting than it does with the business if $DLO booked revenue like Adyen does we would all be talking about how wildly profitable the business is. What you are seeing in this chart is gross take rate (revenue) and net take rate (gross profit)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964894173137604931)  2025-09-08T03:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bjmtweets @realroseceline It is true that growth in TPV comes with modest declines in take rates which is standard in the industry but the net take rate growth is the true number for the business. The other component hiding operational leverage is a ramp in R&D spend from FY23 to FY24"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964894951696990433)  2025-09-08T03:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bjmtweets @realroseceline The reason is because when Pedro Arnt became CEO he 2Xd R&D spend and they are working through that investment cycle. They doubled the size of their engineering and compliance teams. If you review the trend with the most recent handful of quarters its a different trend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1965018481512120344)  2025-09-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This guy understands the $DLO thesis over the long term the metric that will drive results is FCF/share. Gross profit growth drives operating leverage which drives FCF growth. Thats how the business works its very capital light and incremental volume is profitable. $DLO doubters should take their eyes off the take rate for just a monent and study the multi-year FCF growth track record. $DLO doubters should take their eyes off the take rate for just a monent and study the multi-year FCF growth track record"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1966674219736945010)  2025-09-13T01:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"While everyone is chasing US AI equities I am invested in a small Uruguayan payments business $DLO and an energy drinks business $CELH. I am going to explain why I chose these companies and what I believe they have in common"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1966683373390217282)  2025-09-13T02:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1) In investing we need to fish where the fish are. $DLO was (and still is) extremely unpopular and overlooked and $CELH was working through operations difficulties. By fishing on the island of misfit toys we can occasionally find high quality gems at discounts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1966683375793562097)  2025-09-13T02:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FOUR really deserves more coverage this business is very interesting to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1968533491454259686)  2025-09-18T04:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Celsius Brand rebound to YoY volume growth is huge for $CELH here very encouraging for the future especially looking into FY2026. $CELH 4w scanner data: Celsius: 13.8% Alani Nu: 108.5% Rockstar: (est) -7% Celsius consolidated (w/o Rockstar): 41.7% $MNST (incl. bang): 9.7% Redbull: 12.1% Not sure anyone cares but Celsius brand numbers by themselves were above Redbull and $MNST in the 4w and 2w data $CELH 4w scanner data: Celsius: 13.8% Alani Nu: 108.5% Rockstar: (est) -7% Celsius consolidated (w/o Rockstar): 41.7% $MNST (incl. bang): 9.7% Redbull: 12.1% Not sure anyone cares but Celsius brand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1968821438527189340)  2025-09-18T23:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Totally random thought but I really do think that $DLO is going to be worth $25-$30 sometime next year. If we take $200M as FY2025 FCF and assume 50% YoY growth in FCF in FY2026 then we get to $300M FY2026 FCF. That would be approximately a 25x multiple for 50% growth rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1968822395243786302)  2025-09-18T23:40Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"@davey_juice I never assume things like this to justify an investment I am in at $8 here but I think this is the likely outcome. Business is accelerating operating leverage is to come because $DLO will stop expanding headcount in FY2026 at the same rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1968838607860285629)  2025-09-19T00:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"1) Instead of purchasing ad-hoc software and patching together operations business owners can get free quality ERP through $WIX $FOUR etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231304437669981)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2) In this way $FOUR uses the ERP system as a free incentive to win the businesses payment volume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231306958491754)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"3) Perhaps most interesting is by solving for the complexity of building a truly functional ERP system $FOUR is able to drastically increase monetization compared to a traditional ERP product. This results in highly favorable unit economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231309810577601)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"4) For the business owners $FOUR is actually helping them save money by cutting the patchwork of vendors and more importantly streamline operations by having a centralized ERP system. This is a win-win situation for all involved parties (except legacy vendors)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231313421873621)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"5) In this way I believe that software and payments are converging to be the same industry. Software is becoming an incentive for payments businesses to win volumes. This is clearly playing out with $SHOP $XYZ (what a shit name) $WIX and $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231316466987184)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@low_IQ_trader I am familiar with this business but from my research I have found stock buybacks without growth dont always have the desired effect. $IBM is a good example of this I dont foresee a future where $AMR is able to grow meaningfully"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969360636460036466)  2025-09-20T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Why am I so bullish on $DLO Investing in $DLO is like getting into a time machine and buying a basket of $AMZN $NFLX $SPOT etc. ten years ago. $DLO has incredible unit economics and is riding the coat rails of the growth of all the best digital businesses in the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969778789941960856)  2025-09-21T15:00Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"@fabj86 No $MELI is a digital wallet and $DLO is enterprise payments so its a different use case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969811798158163969)  2025-09-21T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Duolingo $DUOL CEO Luis von Ahn pays himself zero in equity incentives. In my study of businesses I always check this line item because I think it speaks volumes about the person running the business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969864174290514290)  2025-09-21T20:39Z [----] followers, 29.2K engagements


"Duolingo $DUOL is an incredible business with an outstanding culture. The marketing ROI this business is generating through free TikTok content is truly world class. Im always trying to identify anomalies $DUOL is an anomaly in regards to quality of execution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969970371668353281)  2025-09-22T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DLO at $8 is the kind of thing you will only find a few times in a lifetime. If you feel this way at $15 can you image how I felt at $8 🌹 If you feel this way at $15 can you image how I felt at $8 🌹"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1971764379298550162)  2025-09-27T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"September portfolio update I sold 25% of my $DLO position as I recently purchased a home and needed cash to fund related projects. I remain very optimistic about the business and it was emotionally difficult to sell as I know these shares have high opportunity cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1976458455474204862)  2025-10-10T01:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@xianren88338098 $CELH is a new position so thats short term capital gains $DLO was also 40% net worth and remains at 30%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1976602886693122431)  2025-10-10T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My updated take on $DUOL I ran an experiment on myself and attempted to see how sticky the app is and I ended up not sticking with it after [--] days. I think the business is great leadership is great but the price does not make me feel comfortable betting against human nature"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1976639713990852881)  2025-10-10T13:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CAVA curious to know what people think of the food The stock is expensive definitely not a buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1888613584344654087)  2025-02-09T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$CROX earnings review is out https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/crocs-q4-2024-earnings-review https://adrewrog.substack.com/p/crocs-q4-2024-earnings-review"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1890163674800906529)  2025-02-13T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lots of $DLO purchasing into earnings I think that Q4 will be strong but more important is FY2025 guidance. The price has moved a lot and I think we are getting closer to a fair value in the $6 billion range now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1891864178731655392)  2025-02-18T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"An additional concern I have about $ROOT and P&C generally is the following. $ROOT posted strong FY24 ROE at 25% but P&C industry is cyclical and changes in competitive pricing used car pricing cat exposure creates cycles. The through-cycle ROE is likely lower than 25%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1964873731488284746)  2025-09-08T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Just learned the founder of $FOUR is an astronaut and is now running NASA. I look for great businesses run by great people $FOUR is checking a lot of my boxes. What can I say Payments businesses have great economics I like the industry its also out of favor for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969173965449973942)  2025-09-19T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"From my study of $SHOP $WIX and now $FOUR I am learning that I think a lot of ERP is going to get crushed because software is going to be free monetized by winning the payment volumes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1969231301505896943)  2025-09-20T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@realroseceline I suppose the only answer that makes sense is diversification but I think that $DLO will outperform $FOUR over a longer time horizon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1976389304352944168)  2025-10-09T20:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLO is finally getting some recognition from investors and I have to say its about time This company has been through a lot the last few years congrats to fellow longs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1978315081327771731)  2025-10-15T04:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@fintegrate If the thesis plays out fully it may still work out quite well for you the value of patience is extremely underrated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1978445385128419429)  2025-10-15T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just had an interesting thought but through all my time holding $DLO the company has fallen 30% twice. Through all of that noise the business was doing great and through time the stock price is reflecting this I am almost up 100% on my position. Patience patience patience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1978459655350231441)  2025-10-15T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Still a long way to go with $DLO I also agree that 3Q is the next catalyst but at $4B market cap and 20x annualized FCF growing 50% its far too cheap. The Price/FCF multiple may not expand but the growth in cash flows will provide significant returns. $dlo is at roughly the same price as right before Pedro took over [--] months ago. A lot has changed since then. After the announcement the stock peaked in mid to low 20s before falling to around 6-7$ now its come full circle in the mid teens. Feels like $20 is a big level $dlo is at roughly the same price as right before Pedro took over [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1978792362965930300)  2025-10-16T11:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not sure how many people are following currency trends but every currency $DLO reports ex-Argentina has appreciated by 10% YoY during Q3. The macroeconomic volatility in emerging markets goes both ways and the headwind from strong USD is now a tailwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1984719834857554289)  2025-11-01T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@low_IQ_trader I just accept that I will miss out on some opportunities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1985073550353473930)  2025-11-02T19:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@low_IQ_trader I only look for new stocks at certain times right now I am not looking for new stocks because the overall market is pricy. Right now I am saving up cash to use in the future and I have no intention of using it now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1985340049420878101)  2025-11-03T13:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$CELH earnings $200M in Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter If we consider likely growth of 20% for FY2026 we are talking about getting close to the $1 billion run rate. I think that the stock has more room to run at a $15 billion market cap or 20x AEBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986415309784236271)  2025-11-06T12:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kokken_tor1 The quarter is strong GAAP accounting strikes again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986432878666740071)  2025-11-06T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CELH dont really understand market reaction here I thought the Q was very strong and near term catalysts to come starting in Q126. I guess [--] Qs out is long term nowadays with the anemic attention span of Wall Street"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986434546691104780)  2025-11-06T14:04Z [----] followers, 12.3K engagements


"@JustinRTipton These are different categories and I also think $FOUR is cheap whats the point here exactly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986524211339207103)  2025-11-06T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We shall see how $DLO earnings go next week seems like the market is ready to break down so Im expecting any cracks are probably another -20% day. Hopefully I am wrong but volatility is the name of the game in my neck of the woods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986619234873401509)  2025-11-07T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CELH this is quite a reaction from the market. If you have a time horizon longer than [---] days here this is actually a positive thing for the business short term market reaction is pricing in a bad Q4 but makes very little sense longer term. I intend to stay long here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1986954348761416158)  2025-11-08T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JustinRTipton Yeah I think that criticism pretty valid but the scanner so far in Q4 has accelerated to 16% so at that point I think its outgrowing the category. I think the main brand can probably do 15% decelerating to category growth of 10% over coming years but we will see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1987173109422555494)  2025-11-08T14:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$CELH Say what you want about management communication but the truth is that capital allocation has been nothing short of outstanding. The company is run by a bunch of CFOs. $300M buyback continues that trend after the Q3 dip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1987873776231461144)  2025-11-10T13:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DLO Happy with the Q3 results I am going to stay long as long as this thing keeps growing eventually the market will figure it out. Wont be writing things up this time as I am quite busy right now and I dont have anything new to share on this report"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1988794136628195558)  2025-11-13T02:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The trick with $DLO is the market does not belief growth and business is sustainable which is why we are priced at PE [--] despite the strong growth. However as $DLO keeps growing shareholders will earn the returns of the business so it just requires patience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1993318216324759817)  2025-11-25T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PYPL is a high cost option as a payments gateway and a less convenient option as a payment method. A far more expensive option as a peer to peer payments network. If you dont have a cost advantage in payments or an OS/software you are not going to compete long term. Ladies and Gentlemen I present PainPal "The Worst Fintech in the World". $PYPL -72% 5Y 🔴 🔴 🔴 -30% YTD 🔴 🔴 🔴 - Flat Margins - Stagnant Top-Line Growth - 10% BuyBack - $1.8T in Payment Volumes - 15% [----] FCF CAGR - Very Cheap Valuation - 25% Below Consensus Price Target https://t.co/LvAIpSQjzy Ladies and Gentlemen I present"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1998952314137428427)  2025-12-11T03:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$RIVN Autonomy day very interesting announced incorporation of LiDAR in house chips goals to get to L4 autonomy. $RIVN is serious in this space and I am bullish for [----] with R2 launching"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1999258706224074782)  2025-12-11T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Clearly $RIVN is getting suppressed on X but I think they have a genuine technology advantage with the incorporation of LiDAR positioning as the only OS other OEMs are partnering with. I think this will be seen as a much larger deal than it is today in hindsight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1999325197787336936)  2025-12-12T03:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Portfolio update initiated a starter position in $RIVN representing approximately 0.15% of my portfolio. I intend to add to this position in [----]. I have been following $RIVN for over [--] years and I have a high conviction in my thesis. I will write up my thoughts at some point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/1999498050490802524)  2025-12-12T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I spent some time reviewing $CELH and I still think [----] is $1 billion in Adjusted EBITDA and the current $11 billion market cap is just far too low for the quality of business. I think that fair price is more in the $70-80 range and expect the stock to move there eventually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2002953505099944403)  2025-12-22T04:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@cashedflow9 @realroseceline @BearstoneWriter Theres actually a real point here which relates to ROIC its about the amount of capital required to generate incremental dollars that you are missing. I think $FOUR is a good business and Im not a bear Im just trying to share about how the economics work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2003915818560901242)  2025-12-24T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If only there were other sensors that were inexpensive and could help address this edge case I figured I'd take tesla FSD 14.2.1.25 for a run in the rain. See how it does. This is what I got. Not sure of teslas plans if FSD doesn't work well in rain or direct sunlight. (there is no dirt. It's just rain)- try it yourself. $tsla https://t.co/nlNHd6VOjI I figured I'd take tesla FSD 14.2.1.25 for a run in the rain. See how it does. This is what I got. Not sure of teslas plans if FSD doesn't work well in rain or direct sunlight. (there is no dirt. It's just rain)- try it yourself. $tsla"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2003973259893920062)  2025-12-24T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$RIVN is burning $400 million a quarter pre-R2 and has $7 billion in cash with $4 billion in debt. They have communicated positive EBITDA in [----] so I think we can extrapolate a worst case $5.5 billion cash position outside of Georgia CAPEX. $RIVN is going to make it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004032901961089496)  2025-12-25T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Rivian_DD Q3 [----] FCF is negative [---] million. GAAP losses are higher but that doesnt equate to cash burn from operating losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004334842604146808)  2025-12-25T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rivian_DD Thanks for the point here I need to take a closer look here looks like burn including gross profit is closer to $750 million not including Georgia CAPEX. I think its useful to consider that CAPEX outside of burn because if they have liquidity issues its an optional expense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004337870908309591)  2025-12-25T23:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rivian_DD The way I see this they either raise early [----] or they are forced to slow down in Georgia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004564448795894231)  2025-12-26T14:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just spent the morning/afternoon diving into $RIVN financials. Lots of moving pieces with $RIVN but a comprehensive deep dive is to come soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004647393472766285)  2025-12-26T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$RIVN reminds me a lot of Microsoft"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2004942382807298064)  2025-12-27T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu You are on the right track with your thinking but you are missing the most important metric for merchants; conversion rate. $DLO competitive advantage is scale within the markets they operate but also improved conversion rates due to the deep integration with local banks/APMs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005616126903128316)  2025-12-29T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu Conversion rate is more important than take rate for $DLO merchants you have to keep in mind baseline conversion rates with international cards are very low. $DLO able to price themselves below international cards and also increase conversion rates significantly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005616871127863389)  2025-12-29T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu The reason $DLO increases conversion rates is because most consumers un emerging markets dont have access to international credit cards. By offering local payment methods $DLO is allowing their merchants to increase their revenues significantly all while charging a lower price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005617270115164478)  2025-12-29T12:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu Within $DLO niche the other important component to their profitability and take rate is FX spread. You have to keep in mind $DLO is dealing with exotic currencies that have high spread. International cards have an FX fee of 1-2% for cross border transactions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005617672952922605)  2025-12-29T12:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu With FX as $DLO has inbound and outbound flows they are able to use netting which is say you have [--] Mexican pesos you need to expatriate and [--] pesos are coming in you can pay FX fees to expatriate [--] peso. This allows $DLO to charge lower FX fees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005618276899205619)  2025-12-29T12:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu So by using $DLO the scale leader in their niche $DLO merchants are able to increase their revenues (conversion rates) while lowering their cost compared to the alternative which is international credit cards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005618571897184629)  2025-12-29T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu The last thing I will mention is $DLO is a scale leader specifically in their emerging markets they operate in. Adyen Stripe offer some of $DLO markets but where $DLO wins is by solving the larger markets and the smaller markets which gives merchants a single integration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005619058604118341)  2025-12-29T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu This is important for enterprise customers as $DLO merchants want a single integration to solve a region. In other words you want all of LATAM in one integration not just Brazil or Mexico otherwise you have to patch together a bunch of solutions and its a lot more difficult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005619543461466409)  2025-12-29T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CELH moving up because all the analysts figured out they sold because they had the wrong scanner data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005668043318612419)  2025-12-29T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I am a very concise writer but $RIVN is a complex business with a complex financial position. My $RIVN deep dive is already a [--] minute read and over [----] words and is yet to be completed. There's a lot of ground to cover but I think it will be worth the read"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005751944418091293)  2025-12-29T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is the best interview I have found with $RIVN R.J. Scaringe I recommend watching the 53:21 segment. "How should investors think about Rivian as a business" https://www.youtube.com/watchv=AlF2H8zeyw8&t=3905s https://www.youtube.com/watchv=AlF2H8zeyw8&t=3905s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2005849826483728888)  2025-12-30T03:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu 1) There isnt any proprietary technology outside of APM tokenization its just difficult operations work to properly cover all of these small market very very thoroughly and they dont have competitors that are specifically focused on covering the wide range of all the markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006001186198176196)  2025-12-30T13:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu 2) I dont think that any enterprises are going to want to do the work to integrate with local players themselves in lets say all of LATAM or Africa. Thats a ton of burden to take on in engineering and operations and enterprises would probably spend more money than paying DLO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006002487527104954)  2025-12-30T14:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu 3) They started an R&D cycle where they doubled engineering department after Pedro Arnt became CEO. They have structural operating leverage but its hidden by headcount growth in engineering. They have communicated on calls that they will see increased operating leverage in 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006003324324307121)  2025-12-30T14:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu 4) The different APM increases the fragmentation and complexity which creates the need for dLocal. Meaning if an enterprise wants to deeply support LATAM with coverage across all markets there is so much work to integrate with a different APM in every market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006004493935415344)  2025-12-30T14:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu Yes but this is not the same thing. An enterprise may use Stripe Adyen and dLocal but they are not going to integrate with [--] local players directly across every small market in every country in LATAM. Thats [--] integrations total versus probably 20bif you have [--] banks [--] market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006007767602233439)  2025-12-30T14:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu No it means that they have every market and every payment method with tokenization so its breadth of coverage. Cross border is very important but that is more FX pricing local coverage is important for conversion rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2006008708661129653)  2025-12-30T14:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TacticzH Eventually all of these semiconductor profits turn into cloud revenue You have to build the data centers first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2007528112595026406)  2026-01-03T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$RIVN is an interesting thesis and I have high conviction but I ultimately think risk is too high for me to add significantly at this point in their company lifecycle. I am going to maintain my small 0.015% position and continue to watch the developments in the space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/adrewrogers/status/2007648712731062601)  2026-01-04T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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