# ![@WaterboyWalton Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1953955065737170944.png) @WaterboyWalton Waterboy Walton

Waterboy Walton posts on X about $mstr, $btc, $asst, mstr the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1953955065737170944/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953955065737170944/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +145%
- [--] Month [-------] +531%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1953955065737170944/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953955065737170944/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +150%
- [--] Month [--] +7.10%

### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1953955065737170944/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953955065737170944/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Month [--] +9.50%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1953955065737170944/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953955065737170944/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  63.38% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  56.34% [finance](/list/finance)  47.89% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  5.63% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  4.23% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1.41%

**Social topic influence**
[$mstr](/topic/$mstr) 36.62%, [$btc](/topic/$btc) 33.8%, [$asst](/topic/$asst) 28.17%, [mstr](/topic/mstr) 15.49%, [money](/topic/money) 9.86%, [$smlr](/topic/$smlr) 9.86%, [debt](/topic/debt) #1772, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 7.04%, [investment](/topic/investment) 7.04%, [holders](/topic/holders) 5.63%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@punterjeff](/creator/undefined) [@actuallyclimber](/creator/undefined) [@bruce5587](/creator/undefined) [@colemacros](/creator/undefined) [@winstonmickey1](/creator/undefined) [@ryquant](/creator/undefined) [@adambliv](/creator/undefined) [@strive](/creator/undefined) [@upwardfrood](/creator/undefined) [@valuations](/creator/undefined) [@saylor](/creator/undefined) [@iiicapital](/creator/undefined) [@pledditor](/creator/undefined) [@bennpeifert](/creator/undefined) [@jessekobernick](/creator/undefined) [@benschmidtbtc](/creator/undefined) [@mstrtruenorth](/creator/undefined) [@hermeslux](/creator/undefined) [@calihodler](/creator/undefined) [@zynxbtc](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Asset Entities Inc. (ASST)](/topic/$asst) [Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)](/topic/$smlr) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [BTCS Inc. (BTCS)](/topic/$btcs) [Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)](/topic/$mtplf) [Flex Ltd. Ordinary Shares (FLEX)](/topic/$flex) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"RT @bennpeifert: Zero-sum nihilistic casinos do not in fact equalize anything or create wealth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2021354098738725046)  2026-02-10T22:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"At $ASST's current market cap management would have to dilute its common shares by 10% a year.just to meet the $SATA dividend ($52.25M in dividends; market cap of $505M). And that doesn't include the millions of dollars in salaries and other operating expenses that they have to cover (like @ColeMacro's $17M bonus for being a glorified Coinbase account manager.what a good follower of Christ). Granted their cash reserve can buy them some time for $BTC to run but I don't know how much cash they have currently. If $BTC hasn't run by the time they run out it could be painful for $ASST common"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2021724036326133802)  2026-02-11T23:12Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@JesseKobernick @benschmidtbtc Exactly this. $ASST management gets paid to do almost nothing. It's mostly the lawyers bankers and the accountants that are doing the lifting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2020580003055112240)  2026-02-08T19:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@PunterJeff doesn't understand the obvious differences between insurance and preferred securities. Why do people buy insurance Because there's a pre-existing external risk that they want to be insulated from. They pay a premium not with the expectation of making profit but to reduce uncertainty. And if the insurance company does a good enough job managing risk they can make a profit on the insurance contracts themselves (independent of whatever investments they may make with the premiums). It's almost the complete opposite for the preferred securities. When you buy a preferred instrument you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2021938487277113768)  2026-02-12T13:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$MSTR down 15% since "The bottom's in." Stay retarded @MSTRTrueNorth. ⚡Brand New Episode Tomorrow Night⚡ 10pm EST / 7pm PST True North Episode [--] - New Year The bottom's in Agenda: Welcome to [----] Macro landscape Status of the preferred equity Pension funds & Insurance Companies [----] and the horizon https://t.co/RHvCBPabTl ⚡Brand New Episode Tomorrow Night⚡ 10pm EST / 7pm PST True North Episode [--] - New Year The bottom's in Agenda: Welcome to [----] Macro landscape Status of the preferred equity Pension funds & Insurance Companies [----] and the horizon https://t.co/RHvCBPabTl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2018849236163662248)  2026-02-04T00:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$ASST bragging about its debt offering being oversubscribed is not the flex they think it is. For some of these buyers it's probably a bet that $ASST is going to skin its common holders alive. Issuing [-------] shares at a 15% effective yield (based on net proceeds) is absolutely disgusting work. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020585071020019869 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020585071020019869"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2020585071020019869)  2026-02-08T19:46Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"That cash is not going to last [--] years based on their ridiculous comp. And no I don't think $BTC will be in a bear market for that long but when they issued their preferreds (when $BTC's price was higher) they were effectively betting that $BTC would CAGR at 15% which doesn't look like a sure bet looking at $BTC's shitty performance when it has so much going for it. And the preferreds are effectively debt. The fact they don't have a maturity is really not much of a distinction and $ASST even admitted as much in other contexts (they used to love to argue that $MSTR's convertible debt could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2022646675345453469)  2026-02-14T12:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"No shit part of their comp is equity. It doesn't change the fact that they have million of dollars in cash burn over and above the preferred dividends. And whether it's cash or shares the comp is going to drag down the value of the common. Again maturity isn't a big difference when you can just roll debt. And the converts aren't amortized. It's a bullet maturity. "Thats a modeling choice not structural certainty" What It's not a choice at all it's just a reality. They raised at an effective rate of 15%. If $BTC CAGRs less than that they only thing they can really do to stop the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2022663511583662322)  2026-02-14T13:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Pretty ironic that people in the BTCTC space will rail against "TradFi" while treasury companies rely on paying bankers millions of dollars in fees to raise money. Lots of people on Wall Street are getting rich off of this. $BTC $MSTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1973167283267895774)  2025-09-30T23:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I swear this guy's tweets overflow with condescension and contempt for the ordinary person. God forbid you like to watch sports and aren't as rabid of a bitcoin acolyte you are apparently beneath him. $BTC $MSTR $ASST Yeah probably nothing. Catch the game last night Yeah probably nothing. Catch the game last night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1975580053368168547)  2025-10-07T15:12Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Making this point is like saying "Madoff's business couldn't have been a Ponzi scheme because I was an early investor and I made a profit." I don't mean to get into the whole "Is $MSTR a ponzi scheme" debate because so much of it depends on definitions and semantics. But regardless yes you can earn a return by getting other people to buy $1 for $2 (i.e. selling your common stock above NAV). That doesn't make it legitimate. It's rent seeking. $BTC $MSTR $ASST $MSTR 1x mNAV analysis: Bitcoin TC's are constantly working to increase the Bitcoin exposure per share (BTC yield). This creates another"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1975670240836276451)  2025-10-07T21:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ActuallyClimber Ha thanks. So true. Utterly bizarre. I don't know how they can claim to be maximizing bitcoin-per-share while signing off on deal terms like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1977855612227612810)  2025-10-13T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ActuallyClimber @HermesLux Exactly. Super weird to pretend like there's no liquidation preference. There's no hypothetical way for the company to transfer the value of its $BTC holdings to the common holders without first paying the dividends/liquidation preference on the preferred"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979299865252241458)  2025-10-17T21:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Even leverage is not a clear "value" add. Generally capital structure doesn't affect firm value much though it's complicated. Leverage can add value through a tax shield.but considering you're already facing an added layer of taxation when getting $BTC exposure through a treasury company (vs. just buying $BTC yourself) so that's not exactly a great point in favor of leverage. Leverage might add to firm value through other means but even then it doesn't come anywhere close to justifying a 2x mNAV (especially when debt/assets is like 20%). In my mind any benefit from leverage is more than"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1978604306686177743)  2025-10-15T23:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Little misleading.even if that's true it's a deferral of tax at best. Lower basis = greater capital gain when you sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1978615639897149568)  2025-10-16T00:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1. I don't understand your point on the $6.6B. Every marginal dollar raised from preferred holders is a marginal dollar of liquidation preference ahead of any common return of capital. [--]. If there was ever a real possibility of the common holders voting to do that the company's cost of capital would shoot up. There's no free lunch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979304013221761065)  2025-10-17T21:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm not exactly sure if this is the same point but your post reminds me of the arbitrage possibility pointed out by Modigliani and Miller. I still think it's funny that people think that leverage justifies a meaningful premium to NAV. It *could* justify some premium but generally capital structure doesn't affect firm value very much (especially for companies like $MSTR where the benefits of a tax shield are outweighed by double taxation which you obviously avoid buying $BTC yourself)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979305853883711784)  2025-10-17T21:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Genuinely I respect your conviction in these treasury companies (I wouldn't be able to stomach this price action if I had the same thesis). That said my guess is that a lot of the people capitulating actually do believe $BTC will go to $1M by [----]. But still why would they want to pay for that $BTC through a treasury company like $MSTR (or even smaller ones like $MTPLF or $ASST) when they can get it cheaper themselves through an exchange There's no premium no management overhead no corporate taxes no agency risks/costs etc. Almost certainly any potential benefits of preferred equity or debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979909666097217954)  2025-10-19T13:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Winstonmickey1 I love how much time these guys started to spend talking about the debt/preferred side of things.conveniently as the equities started to go south. They just cannot admit when they are wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979915420539744751)  2025-10-19T14:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I can see the difference. You are right that they can increase bitcoin per share at least for now. The deal is you get less $BTC upfront (vs. the amount you'd get through an exchange) for the promise that the BTC yield will make up for it in the long-run. But the only way these companies can increase bitcoin per share safely (i.e. without leverage) is if new stockholders continue to pay a premium for the underlying net assets. That's a game of musical chairs. Would you really be comfortable paying even a 50% premium (and getting only two-thirds of the $BTC you would have gotten yourself) if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1979919123975983113)  2025-10-19T14:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Yeah this is a real headscratcher. Curious to learn how $BTC adoption would meaningfully reduce opportunities for PE funds. Even if we could somehow determine what the appropriate number of PE funds should be at any given time how does $BTC prevent resources from being misallocated in the first place It doesn't give anyone a crystal ball"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1980023457497727414)  2025-10-19T21:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Winstonmickey1 Unfortunately much of the BTC treasury space seems to be driven by optics and grift. Sorely lacking in substance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1983548498718195908)  2025-10-29T14:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Cali_HODLER @ZynxBTC That's totally fine if you look at $BTC that way. But most people I encounter on twitter don't act that way. They're obsessed with getting a return on their $BTC not using it as a currency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1983674113286877255)  2025-10-29T23:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Adrian_R_Morris Sell-side analysts at small brokers don't represent market expectations.not even close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1983941719612588517)  2025-10-30T16:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@pete_rizzo_ In the same way I generate "net income" from holding $BTC in my Coinbase account. Who cares $MSTR earnings have zero information content"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1984021215112274061)  2025-10-30T22:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ryQuant @BitcoinPierre As an actual equity analyst it's physically painful reading the opinions of some of the people in the bitcoin treasury space particularly those running some of the shitcos (like $ASST). This isn't directed at you though Ryan. You're one of the few reasonable ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1984359676226781326)  2025-10-31T20:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes. If you're looking to invest in a $BTC treasury company $ASST seems like one of the worst ones. I would not trust any management team that attempts to acquire another pile of $BTC for a 210% premium when they could just buy it at the market price. There's no "synergy" that would justify that. Extreme 🤡 behavior"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1984401365808840945)  2025-10-31T23:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ryQuant Ha thanks Would be happy to chat about it sometime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1984611822951977181)  2025-11-01T13:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I've been thinking the same thing when it comes to your point on catalysts. People keep talking about this supposed huge Q4 run that $BTC is supposed to have seemingly based on historical price action alone. I have a hard time seeing a huge run happen because I don't know what the catalyst would be. Something on par with DJT getting elected seems unlikely. Granted I could see some steady price appreciation happening over the next couple months with gradual adoption and some smaller catalysts. But I don't how people are so assured that $150k (let alone $250k) is going to happen by year-end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1985101478739227088)  2025-11-02T21:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@NitherDither Agreed. As much as I can't stand the $ASST management team these terms look interesting. I think I'd be happy to take that stated rate as long as the common holders are okay footing the bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1985501194337317197)  2025-11-04T00:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"On #2 if we're talking about an equity investment in a treasury company regardless of the amount of $BTC a company owns the risk/reward ultimately comes down to the price you're paying for that $BTC. If you're paying 100x the market price per net $BTC in a company that doesn't do anything else but buy $BTC that obviously wouldn't be good risk/reward no matter how much $BTC the company has. Like every investment it all comes down to the price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1986916779046625654)  2025-11-07T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@longgamma It was obvious to just about everyone outside the $BTC treasury cult that $MSTR was incredibly overvalued. The only hard part was timing the trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1987244320756203698)  2025-11-08T19:42Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@AdamBLiv Even if you're a $BTC maxi that doesn't justify buying $MSTR at any price. Whether it's a good investment or not relative to $BTC depends on the price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1987269064331325570)  2025-11-08T21:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ThisiswhyweBTC Not really impressive considering this is the only thing that $MSTR does. Plus the lawyers and investment bankers are doing most of the heavy lifting. The $MSTR management team has an easy gig. They just have to sit back and manage a Coinbase account"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1987271978332377136)  2025-11-08T21:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Dude this is mad retarded. It's not like they are helping another company issue these securities and taking a cut (like the investment banks do). Each dollar they bring in has a cost attached to it. $MSTR has to give the preferred holders more value than it receives from them. There are giant strings attached"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1988379734796103966)  2025-11-11T22:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Under the terms of the preferred shares themselves the holders get more value. It doesn't matter what $MSTR does with the proceeds. For every dollar they get from the preferreds they have to pay back that dollar plus a return. That's why the investors buy the shares. It's not like selling a normal product where you can keep the customer's money completely unencumbered and do as you please with it. These "customers" come back and are contractually owed more than they originally gave you in return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1988384414372397471)  2025-11-11T23:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@hillery_dan I don't get it.what is so interesting about this It's just variable rate debt designed to stay near par.why would anyone think that's correlated with $BTC unless there was an immediate concern about $MSTR's solvency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1988681214858031403)  2025-11-12T18:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Lmao I always thought it was extremely telling how fascinated retail investors were (and still are I guess) by $MSTR. They were in absolute awe of very basic instruments (convertible debt preferred stock etc.) that are mundane for Wall Street. Like bud this is just an overpriced closed-end fund with shitty tax consequences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989399822919413991)  2025-11-14T18:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@EarthHODL @Truenorthclips @strive @PunterJeff Too bearish. My sources are expecting the most hated rally of all time in December. Bet on $5k $MSTR and a lot of bewilderment. Sell your childrens' kidneys and put everything into deep out of the money calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989421841510023216)  2025-11-14T19:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@strive Fix your BSE calc. $0.61 is the predecessor entity's stock price. The calc should use $1.35 because that's what $ASST was recapitalized at. I know that makes you look worse but unfortunately that's the honest calculation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989449610067415445)  2025-11-14T21:45Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@ColeMacro Fix the BSE return calc. $0.61 is the predecessor entity's stock price. The calc should use $1.35 because that's what $ASST was recapitalized at. I know that makes you look worse but unfortunately that's the honest calculation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989452990122766337)  2025-11-14T21:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Let's just pretend that Strategy's preferreds are the most attractive investment on Earth for second.you realize that comes at the expense of the common stock right So what's your point It doesn't change the fact that everyone with a functioning brain cell knew $MSTR was overvalued in November [----]. The preferreds being good investments/undervalued if anything reinforces that point because it means the common holders are being shafted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989739111188467930)  2025-11-15T16:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@UpwardFrood @valuations_ Can you read My initial point was that the preferred instruments are not complicated or hard to understand. They are incredibly mundane. That is completely independent of whether they are valuable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989774677254762621)  2025-11-15T19:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@UpwardFrood @valuations_ In what way are these instruments meaningfully unique You've never seen variable rate instruments or convertible preferreds before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1989776441920409639)  2025-11-15T19:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SRS207279 @ActuallyClimber I hope you're able to recover on $MTPLF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1992698069150994621)  2025-11-23T20:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AdamBLiv "Management not doing something stupid" These guys already offered to buy a pile of $BTC at 3x the market price. The agency risks with $ASST are super high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001063908891603182)  2025-12-16T22:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@halstonvalencia @Strategy @saylor Seriously what is the big deal with $MSTR showing up at a Morgan Stanley office They pay them millions and millions of dollars in banking fees. I'd be more surprised if Morgan Stanley turned them away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001428652311859397)  2025-12-17T23:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@IIICapital At these price levels I'm not sure that voting "yes" is much better (if it's better at all) for $SMLR shareholders than just having the company liquidated and returning cash to shareholders.which is saying something. I wouldn't vote for the $ASST merger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001487350900064568)  2025-12-18T02:59Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@EricJacobs55502 @IIICapital Yeah agreed. I was just trying to point out how awful these terms are for $SMLR by comparing it to liquidation. $SMLR holders should demand a better deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001626972926222750)  2025-12-18T12:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Pledditor $ASST shills are still kicking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001627781411803287)  2025-12-18T12:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@0xTimB1 I'm not kidding you might actually get more money if $SMLR just liquidates. I would change that vote to a hard "no""  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2001628735972442569)  2025-12-18T12:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@TFTC21 I don't think this makes much sense. The amount of $BTC that $MSTR owns says almost nothing about what other people would be willing to pay for $BTC. If you own an original piece of artwork that doesn't automatically mean you'll be able to sell it at any price you want"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2002829048658194904)  2025-12-21T19:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Eric how much consideration do you think $SMLR shareholders would receive if you just liquidated the company You have more information than I do but my rough math suggests this $ASST merger might be worse than liquidation for your shareholders. Would be interested in your thoughts. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005718964802920822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005718964802920822"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2005718964802920822)  2025-12-29T19:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@Entouarnt4 @saylor I swear other people can't read. It seems like MSCI is going into a holding pattern while they consider "non-operating" companies like $MSTR more broadly. This isn't a clear win for the treasury companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2008687355352522837)  2026-01-06T23:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"So old = wrong That's fucking retarded. And I love @ColeMacro's dumb point about the DCF's "fatal flaw" for a couple reasons. First no DCF treats an equity as if it's "risk-free" the risk-free rate is just a nice conceptual starting point to which people add a risk premium. But you don't have to start with a risk-free rate. Whether you choose to start with a risk-free rate or not you should theoretically end up with the same discount rate. Second DCFs make the same assumptions as other equity valuation techniques. The only difference is that DCFs force you to make more of those assumptions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2011892201438294374)  2026-01-15T20:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"RT @Pledditor: bro really said these high salaried treasury company execs are "working hard" these are all remote work jobs. as in these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1977911303520809109)  2025-10-14T01:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I can't tell if he's being intentionally obtuse or if he seriously can't understand the difference between insurance and a debt arrangement. "Chief Risk Officer" though. 🙄 $MSTR $BTC $ASST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978266797389316353)  2025-10-15T01:08Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"On the $ASST and $SMLR merger I'm really struggling to decide what the funniest outcome would be. I'm stuck between the deal getting cancelled or the terms being amended with $ASST doubling down on the retarded premium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979148359836254558)  2025-10-17T11:31Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Guys I can't stress this enough. I'm saying this to hopefully save you some confusion. If a company's only asset is traded on an active exchange P/E and price-to-book ratios are of no use whatsoever. They are redundant at best. You will continue to be disappointed by $MSTR to the extent you cling to these ratios. These ratios only seem sensible for $MSTR to people who have no serious background with equity valuation (e.g. people who sold reinsurance for a living). P/E and price-to-book comps will only be relevant for $MSTR if Strategy starts generating free cash flows that are not tied"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983692174630752277)  2025-10-30T00:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"The most hated rally of all time I can feel the bewilderment $MSTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983988500363178155)  2025-10-30T20:04Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Genuinely I do feel bad for people who got duped by the True Clown crew. They are very good at making it sound like they know what they're talking about. Wishing everyone here the best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1984002000636567981)  2025-10-30T20:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Exactly the type of reasonable and measured predictions you'd expect from someone bearing the "Chief Risk Officer" title. 🤡 $BTC $MSTR $ASST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989130855999013015)  2025-11-14T00:38Z [--] followers, 10K engagements


"I don't really have strong views on where $BTC's price goes in the long run but $BTC being negative (and underperforming the S&P500 by a pretty wide margin) in the first year of America's crypto administration does not bode very well if you were banking on 30% CAGR over the next [--] years. Some of the BTC treasury companies like $MSTR and $ASST love to boast that their preferred shares don't have margin requirements maturity risk etc. They love to use "amplification" as a disarming euphemism for "leverage" as if they discovered some kind of free lunch (you can't seriously believe that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1991956226281029761)  2025-11-21T19:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I really wouldn't trust a management team with my money if they can't even be honest about their returns. Virtually all of the initial funding for $ASST's $BTC strategy came from the PIPE investors who paid $1.35 per share. The stock is now at $1.02 but the BSE return on the company's dashboard might lead you to believe that somehow these investors have earned 67%. The trick is incredibly slimy. They pretend that $0.61 was the initial investment at the start of their BSE. That was the price of the old $ASST shares the day before the reverse acquisition was announced. Immediately after the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1992577599302762961)  2025-11-23T12:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Chill with the LARPing guys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1993125377464844339)  2025-11-25T01:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If you own $MSTR and you're really bullish on $BTC for [----] why would you be happy about $MSTR setting aside $1.44B in cash If $BTC rips in [----] that money misses out on the returns and $MSTR ends up paying the dividend obligations at a higher cost to the common holders (they may have been able to issue fewer shares if they just tapped the ATM as the dividends came due). I think this cash reserve idea is only good if you're worried about $MSTR trading lower in [----]. Same point goes for $ASST's cash reserve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/1995486701578273270)  2025-12-01T13:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If I invested a bunch of money into a company's common stock and then that company put out AI slop boasting about their cost of debt increasing I'd probably shoot myself in the mouth. $MSTR $ASST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2000706833430802585)  2025-12-15T23:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Oh boy here goes @punterjeff again pretending to offer insight on a concept he stumbled upon [--] minutes ago (and is clearly struggling with). No one that has a real background in finance (unlike Jeff) struggles with this. If you're valuing a stock you can just do a DCF and ignore goodwill. Not hard. But he loves to overcomplicate this so he can (in his confusion) try to justify a higher mNAV for $MSTR. It's retarded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2002042564895985693)  2025-12-19T15:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If you're a $SMLR shareholder liquidation might actually be better than approving the merger with $ASST at current price levels. I did some quick back-of-the-envelope math that points to liquidation being the better option. I could be missing something or misinterpreting some of the contracts but I tried to be conservative. At the very least I think my numbers suggest that liquidation should be a real consideration and/or $SMLR shareholders should demand better terms from $ASST. If I had to vote right now I'd vote "no" on the merger. Let me know if I missed something."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004671009501446386)  2025-12-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"At these price levels I think $SMLR shareholders might get screwed by the $ASST merger. They might be better off in liquidation. If you're a $SMLR shareholder liquidation might actually be better than approving the merger with $ASST at current price levels. I did some quick back-of-the-envelope math that points to liquidation being the better option. I could be missing something or misinterpreting some https://t.co/eXW28TRjPb If you're a $SMLR shareholder liquidation might actually be better than approving the merger with $ASST at current price levels. I did some quick back-of-the-envelope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004675243936547110)  2025-12-26T22:06Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Some people hawking $MSTR really thought it was "arbitrage" to borrow at 10% and buy $BTC (because 30% ARR for $BTC is "conservative"). How are we feeling about that "arbitrage" opportunity now I'm not saying it won't work out but it certainly doesn't feel risk-free to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/WaterboyWalton/status/2018075733449482246)  2026-02-01T21:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing