# ![@VolSignals Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1174510105674571777.png) @VolSignals VolSignals

VolSignals posts on X about hedging, vix, spx, gamma the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1174510105674571777/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1174510105674571777/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] -59%
- [--] Month [-------] -22%
- [--] Months [---------] -25%
- [--] Year [----------] +78%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1174510105674571777/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1174510105674571777/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -44%
- [--] Month [---] +28%
- [--] Months [-----] +43%
- [--] Year [-----] +41%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1174510105674571777/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1174510105674571777/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +0.59%
- [--] Month [------] +2%
- [--] Months [------] +21%
- [--] Year [------] +101%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1174510105674571777/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1174510105674571777/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[hedging](/topic/hedging) #107, [vix](/topic/vix) #434, [spx](/topic/spx) #614, [gamma](/topic/gamma) #497, [money](/topic/money), [futures](/topic/futures), [fomc](/topic/fomc), [flow](/topic/flow), [discord](/topic/discord), [maker](/topic/maker) #1803

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@optionsdepth](/creator/undefined) [@spotgamma](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@traderpodcaste](/creator/undefined) [@menthorqpro](/creator/undefined) [@jamcroissant](/creator/undefined) [@ksidiii](/creator/undefined) [@jimjame74888138](/creator/undefined) [@docmcgraw](/creator/undefined) [@vixologist](/creator/undefined) [@tim10337907](/creator/undefined) [@bishkekskii1991](/creator/undefined) [@dampedspring](/creator/undefined) [@globalflows](/creator/undefined) [@ftraderft](/creator/undefined) [@wifeyalpha](/creator/undefined) [@bennpeifert](/creator/undefined) [@themarketear](/creator/undefined) [@ghosttradekilla](/creator/undefined) [@unusualwhales](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) [WHALE (WHALE)](/topic/whale) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Quant (QNT)](/topic/quant) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [RAMP (RAMP)](/topic/ramp) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Finally seeing some inflows into US equities - but note the theme so far YTD: Money out of US Money into China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1621823600528441344)  2023-02-04T10:50Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"Weekly Fund Flows - Constructive *Net inflows into global equities *Finally seeing some demand for US equities *Financials = strongest sector *Healthcare + Tech = weakest sectors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1621832503676780545)  2023-02-04T11:26Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


".per Mike Wilson @ Morgan Stanley: "Bear 🐻 markets are *mostly* about negative earnings trends - .depth & length of bear markets depends on trend in forward earnings - Has EPS troughed.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1630782130878914562)  2023-03-01T04:08Z 13K followers, 17K engagements


"We'll see more and more recommendations like this as we near the X Date from the sell / trading side. "Low Vol and Steep Skew S&P Make SPX Put Spreads Attractive" WORD OF CAUTION If you are trading LIVE (without delta hedging) this take is more relevant than if you are trying to monetize the perceived error in pricing. If you are going long hedged Put Spreads from these vols into the debt ceiling impasse there is a very real way to lose money on a big down move. Skew may seem "high" but if VIX goes to 50+ as the market attempts to force the hands of the negotiators what do you think happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1655710536711929857)  2023-05-08T23:05Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"No help for the bulls from systematics pt [--] CTAs pretty full with heavy sell skew to forward flow outcomes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1686315892915736576)  2023-08-01T10:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Throughout [----] and into [----] it was notable how poorly skew performed in the SPX. Every move lower we were inundated with headlines about VIX not responding to the selloffs. 2022: This made sense. For one low levels of equity positioning = low skew levels. ("you don't need to hedge what you don't own"). And second for much of the selloff in question dealers (SPX market makers specifically) were long skew by way of spot trading in between the infamous JHEQX Put Spread strikes. [----] (especially H2): We believe the levels are now "cheap" given positioning and expect volatility to outperform on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1686320643179008000)  2023-08-01T10:19Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements


""The options market is not priced for this." - Morgan Stanley's QDS "Puts are trading at record discounts to calls." SPX MM / dealers long $11-12bn options gamma / 1% move. so. why would we move 👀 Are we due for a thetagangbang 💥 Part [--] a short thread 🧨"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1688360458707730432)  2023-08-07T01:24Z [----] followers, 32.5K engagements


"Fast forward to today: **the massively long SPX dealer gamma position is driven by an increase in vol supply (both overwriting & underwriting) combined with the fact that vol supply has gotten shorter dated.** -h/t MS QDS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1688360487279382528)  2023-08-07T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@tomaas26 Well see if it held"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1688371563433713664)  2023-08-07T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"There's a continuous resupplying of the positions that create this dealer long-gamma dynamic. Systematic funds have concentrated their short-vol supply 7dte & forward & they trade *DAILY*- opening new shorts pretty much regardless of underlying RV. How might this change 🔮🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1689400293094559749)  2023-08-09T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"CTAs 👀 What's the risk to equities . . "Large sellers of US equities in a down scenario." "the SPX *down big* scenario is the largest we have on record" What is "down big" & how much selling would that entail let's have a look"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1689957839253413888)  2023-08-11T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". . . you *really* still believe those 'NEGATIVE GAMMA' numbers #SPX #ES #OPEX 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1691388239125385216)  2023-08-15T09:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"yes dealers *are* long downside gamma generally in this market regime. It *does* vary - but that starkly sloped GEX profile you rely on is simply not representative of the modern market profile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1691398829860392960)  2023-08-15T10:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"while there are certainly some structural hedges to roll. and the market has been hit with "short-gamma-like" flows from CTAs & vol control funds- SPX dealer option inventories are almost certainly not this negative. Most of the systematic short option flow re-supplies their gamma *daily* spot vol correlations agree with me on this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1696477526137196842)  2023-08-29T10:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The SPX positioning is not what everyone thinks it is. Dealers are not short downside gamma. Too many systematic short vol funds targeting near term puts for this to be the case. Its actually been this way for a LONG time. But certain shifts in the vol mgmt community tactically are now making this apparent 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1696478441690788123)  2023-08-29T11:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The SPX positioning is not what everyone thinks it is. Dealers are not short downside gamma. Too many systematic short vol funds targeting near term puts for this to be the case. Its actually been this way for a LONG time. But certain shifts in the vol mgmt community tactically are now making this apparent 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1696478665180057698)  2023-08-29T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#EOM Rebalance. Remember- anytime equities have sold off or rallied materially within either a month or quarter- .end of period flows by nature should be mean-reverting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1696523784956895444)  2023-08-29T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Sensational reporting continues to blame SPX 0DTE Option flows for bursts of market volatility💥 is this really what's happening But one of Wall Street's top derivatives desks . . . isn't buying it. 🤔 🧶Fact from Fiction debunking 0DTE myths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1696931178744287551)  2023-08-30T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"flow to know today Out with the old in with the new. Large 3m SPX collar rolling off. Fund is short Aug31st [----] Calls as part of this hedge (don't even worry about the put strikes🙄) Today they open a *new* collar near close. What's the trade & what's the impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1697263702171398278)  2023-08-31T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"NFP good or bad Doesn't matter. 🤔 SPX options & vol dynamics give us one of the best short-timeframe trade setups around. 🎯 Sign Up for our *FREE* Newsletter at the link below👀 Get on the list by 9PM to find out what it is. 🍻  HINT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1697610241586692256)  2023-09-01T13:59Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements


"ever wondered how the SPX options market *really* works 🎯 what do these giant funds ACTUALLY trade 🎯 what positions do dealers ALWAYS have 🎯 is TRUE gamma (GEX) positive or negative Our professionally-led VIP Mentorship starts in [--] days. 10% off- this weekend ONLY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1697633862086513109)  2023-09-01T15:33Z [----] followers, 137.6K engagements


"Today reminded us that- whenever event hedging is strong enough to perk up the SPX/ES forward vol for the event. for a number due out *before* regular trading hours. -well you know how to play it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1697784972235395351)  2023-09-02T01:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The last [--] weeks of August are known to be low volume- -Friday was the 2nd lightest trading volume day of the year (h/t GS) With the SPX regaining most of its ground lost in August it's not surprising to see the VIX settle into a low What's going on under the hood THREAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698064747105505655)  2023-09-02T20:05Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements


"We've cleared a lot of econ/data related hurdles with Jackson Hole commentary- so far- being the only real wet blanket on the macro side JPM's Macro Intel team provided the roadmap for interpreting the data:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698064748309307414)  2023-09-02T20:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"15Sep23 [----] / [----] Risk Reversal- .client buys 5k Puts / sells 5k Calls (Friday) & the customary pickup in vanilla hedging flow associated with quarterly OPEX we think for at least a few weeks we should see more traditional spot-VIX correlations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698064758480527533)  2023-09-02T20:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".&wouldn't bet on trend reversal yet- Not before CPI / Fed / VIXpiry / OPEX. CPI + FOMC providing opportunity for discretionary flows to reinforce/reverse trend VIXpiry / OPEX clear the positioning deck- allowing for better price/path discovery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698064759919194523)  2023-09-02T20:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What matters more than what you "think" should happen Positioning- along with mechanical and systematic flows. Bookmark this thread Every mini case study we produce over time will be catalogued here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698151807166407021)  2023-09-03T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"August of [----] (Dealer Gamma - CTA - Vol Control - OPEX 💥)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698151814137360414)  2023-09-03T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"June of [----] (OPEX - Positioning - Whale Trade - Pension Rebalance) culminating in the market showing it's true hand (real money/discretionary strength absorbed systematic flows establishing a clear bias into July 2023)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1698467645115294041)  2023-09-03T22:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Soft Landing Hard Landing or Clear Skies Goldman: ".friendly inflation data & labor market slack led our economists to cut (US recession odds) to 15% from 20%" BofA: ".ain't a bond manager in the world with $150bn of AUM who doesn't think there won't be a hard landing.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1700613501482377617)  2023-09-09T20:53Z 11K followers, [----] engagements


"Short squeeze risk Cumulative short flows at YTD highs. 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1701214645392957900)  2023-09-11T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Flagging this. Im not expecting much tomorrow. Im led to believe well have a minor upward impulse on the majority of CPI prints which will fade. Id be watching next Wednesday for FOMC+VIX expiration. Additionally a lot of positioning rolls off. And then- seasonality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1701726800920146369)  2023-09-12T22:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"But not just VIX seasonality. The week after OPEX in Sep is historically weak; finishing higher on a weekly basis just 22% of the time over the last 30-odd years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1701726810340561271)  2023-09-12T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And weve rolled some wider weekly ranges from Aug22 out of the 1y historical sample- which should tighten the triggers marginally for selling flows to come out of CTAs if we do chop lower. Remember- these funds tend to lean on weekly and monthly stdev returns over 1y lookback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1701726818733289814)  2023-09-12T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".we are marching into end of month the 29thJPM collar roll trade in a range which implies bearish net hedging flows. Why Were between their long Put / short Call strikes. If you dont understand that mechanism- we have a newsletter for you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1701726829764366433)  2023-09-12T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"VolSignals welcomes a limited amount of passionate highly engaged students and traders to our VIP group mentorship - master SPX order flow - understand dealer hedging - improve your trading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1702390281268555947)  2023-09-14T18:34Z [----] followers, 40.1K engagements


"At first glance- its a disconnect. But what is this telling us Looks like normalization to me. Acceptance of higher-for-longer While the recent 10y yield movement is certainly trending higher you can see plainly the muted oscillation around the trend. Less volatile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703531205444984876)  2023-09-17T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Goldman saying PEs are misleading as excluding the top [--] megacaps leaves the rest of US equities around a [--] multiple. Should this divergence be wider Whats the looming problem facing smaller caps which- on the flip side- is a tailwind for the megacaps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703532083316941069)  2023-09-17T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Id expect this gap to persist wider"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703536568214999166)  2023-09-17T22:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"0DTE Going into the Day: SPX Sep [--] '23🚩 [----] Max Pain [----] Call Magnet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703760282735055049)  2023-09-18T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


""We made it to [---] days- [---] days without the SPX selling off 1.5% or more. Will we see [---] more that takes us well into 2024." . . . no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703889174992924747)  2023-09-18T21:50Z [----] followers, 71.5K engagements


"Some big prints. downside grab / real money hedging- VIX unlikely to "find true value" 'til post vix-expiry Wednesday (good combo w/FOMC) SPX having hard time reclaiming upside. Our base case is lower through Oct bottom & EOY rebound to 4550-4650 range 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703893668313084324)  2023-09-18T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Nomura: ".there is just barely any sensitivity in the VIX complex to SPX on pullbacks with VIX 3m rolling beta to SPX at 19%ile / 1m rolling beta at 28%." translation: "Maybe the real Fed Put was the ignorant confidence in selling vol / buying the dip all along""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1703894368166297706)  2023-09-18T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"0DTE Going into the Day: SPX Sep [--] '23🚩 [----] Max Pain [----] Call Magnet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1704073273376457173)  2023-09-19T10:01Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"Question is quickly becoming: Where do we buy the dip -too soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1704828066973802722)  2023-09-21T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stephenharlinmd Few Qs: Levels in ESZ3 or SPX Call selling at [----] = calls of all sorts opened when trading 4500- or [----] strike calls sold Puts at [----] source for assumption on origin Love your work and thought process (especially on health) 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1704844597606723652)  2023-09-21T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The VIX is dead long live the VIX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705169739662667901)  2023-09-22T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"BofA on VRP. ".we find the robustness of the VRP today striking given the rising popularity of ETFs that sell US equity index options for yield" *YES*- there is a boom in AUM with ETFs selling vol Our take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705173451126812820)  2023-09-22T10:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"XYLD / Buywrites were already operating in some form or fashion- but XYLD has been often restructured since [----] and I suspect this chart isn't adequately capturing that here. And there are others- Nuveen / Gateway run a similar fund with significant AUM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705173454192886046)  2023-09-22T10:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"And not to mention- this chart is *extremely* misleading- Rewind to [----]. At any given time two of the largest players were holding short 200000+ SPX iron condors. (This was not via ETF) And not to mention a Put Write fund that was short nearly [------] Puts inside of 50dte"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705173455669182543)  2023-09-22T10:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Think about that. It's believed that JEPI at any given time is responsible for about [-----] SPX calls sold to MMs It's not *unfair* to suggest that in years prior there was similar positioning weighing on IV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705173457246249285)  2023-09-22T10:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"0DTE Going into the Day: SPX Sep [--] '23🚩 [----] Max Pain [----] Call Magnet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705190214224986331)  2023-09-22T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Keep in mind- this is just a calculation which says: For options expiring *today* in SPX- Where is the minimum aggregate intrinsic value at expiry when taking into account all open options Perhaps there is some relevance when trading around a strike- But I'd give this less of a look today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705194040918945855)  2023-09-22T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"What's behind the latest market move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705411196268994755)  2023-09-23T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Volatile few weeks Don't say we didn't warn you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421214070555000)  2023-09-23T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Quarterly OPEX. does it again 💥 This one was almost *too* easy. Another quarterly OPEX- another chance for a "never going back down" market to collide- head first- with reality (again). It seems like just yesterday we joked about the "100 days w/o 1.5% selloff". . "  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421215991509200)  2023-09-23T03:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As fate would have it. a mere two days later the S&P rose (err. -fell) to the challenge posting a monstrous drop after the market's harsh mistress (Powell) emphasized that "higher for longer" means. higher. .for "longer""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421224250126608)  2023-09-23T03:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"For some reason the market has steadfastly refused to see the writing on the wall or in the FOMC minutes. or. the transcripts of nearly every member speech delivered in '23 _()_/ But there's some nascent evidence that PMs are catching on:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421226443755794)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Call it seasonality Call it a dose of reality Just don't call it unforeseeable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421234383487478)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Well. maybe they should have checked the calendar. VIX was a little late to the party this year as it has a prior engagement (later cycle EXPIRY)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421247276843167)  2023-09-23T03:18Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"Well wouldn't you guess. Right after the double-whammy of VIX expiry and FOMC- it sprang to life. Check out the chart:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421249420095733)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Whoops. Wrong image. Correction:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421251437629446)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Why does this happen around expiry Well- take a look at this dealer call positioning courtesy of our favorite options personality @ Nomura (McElligott)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421255963287736)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Imagine a simple case where the only trade in a cycle is a call option bought and hedged. The only futures traded in the cycle. are the futures required to hedge the call. You have a BUY impulse when the position is opened which is subsequently distributed back to the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421258324582707)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If [--] futures are bought at T=0 over the course of the next [--] days those [--] futures will be sold. This is charm and this is why- when you see charts like the one from the previous tweet in this thread- you should be aware of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421260442771857)  2023-09-23T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If dealer short call positions dominate then this basic pattern will stand out if inventories stay mostly OTM. There are other cases. You should think through them too. Or- join our newsletter and learn in real time 👉 Cheers 🍻 http://volsignals.com http://volsignals.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705421262279852063)  2023-09-23T03:18Z 12.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Sep [----] (OPEX / Positioning / Seasonality / CTAs) Massive OPEX (gamma roll-off); charm & gamma facilitate a pin near "max-pain" level of [----]. Weak seasonals exacerbated by FOMC / CTAs + Vol Control (systematics) forced selling right on cue near [----] ES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705587627380842953)  2023-09-23T14:19Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"Sep [----] (VIX expiry) Rolling off of OTM strikes (during expiry on Sep20th) releases the VIX from the pressure of charm-related hedging flows Well timed with FOMC release & press conference later that afternoon. The magnitude of this effect will correlate with the relative sizing of dealer call inventory and depend on whether those calls are ITM or OTM at expiry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705588501482184856)  2023-09-23T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The bigger the (dealer-short) Call positioning in VIX. the more *charming* the expiry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705629966182838762)  2023-09-23T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Simplify it. Imagine there's only one trade and its hedge. Client buys upside Calls - dealer sells. Dealer buys VIX futures to hedge delta. time passes dealer sells x% of futures back to market. time passes dealer sells x% of futures back to market. etc-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705634619519897848)  2023-09-23T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Hedge is continuously "unwound" until the OTM Call is worthless / settled at [--]. and the dealer's entire hedge is liquidated. Then- do it again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705634620883058690)  2023-09-23T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"My feed. Is Musk trying to sell me weekly straddles 🤷♂😆"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705650983663989237)  2023-09-23T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is not meant to insult anyone misinterpreting the stats- it's hard to know from the outside. This type of chart is DRASTICALLY influenced by a 10c subscription-style trade in SPY. Banks have been suggesting put flies for a while now given the nascent spot-vol dynamics (no life on selloffs.) For example- 9/14 the 10/27 [---] / [---] /400 put fly was BTO (bought to open) 35k times. For $.09 For the mathemagicians out there: that's $315000 That's not even the same premium spend as a [---] lot of SPX December [----] Puts. In this case. a sixty-two lot of Dec [----] Puts would reflected the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705657618067230900)  2023-09-23T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@vighnaraj2022 They are never rolled- except the day they are first opened when they will "re-strike" the collar to more closely mark the % moneyness vs. the cash close. The strikes are [----] - [----] - [----] in the 29-Sep expiry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705668469012795632)  2023-09-23T19:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@vighnaraj2022 @GammaEdges Friday. And then at the close they will make an adjustment to make the final structure in line with the cash settlement for 29-Sep PM expiry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1705760807798059191)  2023-09-24T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"0DTE Going into the Day: SPX Sep [--] '23 🚩 Max Pain [----] [----] Call Magnet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706292247040332268)  2023-09-25T12:59Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"Heavy open. not expecting high volumes today. 🚨 Beware systematic selling flows While CTAs have unwound some equity exposure BofA estimated over the weekend we could see up to $20B of selling flows in the S&P today from Vol Control & Risk Parity strategies 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706299685483196678)  2023-09-25T13:28Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"TME / ZH: "The VIX term structure has shifted aggressively higher with the short end of the curve showing the biggest change." Yes this is true technically- but of course we should see pickup in near-dated implied vols when realized vol begins to tick-up and we know short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706449121337282782)  2023-09-25T23:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Will this gap widen or close; and why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706449809308041646)  2023-09-25T23:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Most Important Point I'll make all year. Remember last year when the market kept selling off but realized and implied vols kept going down Recall the rationale Rates (yield) / equity correlation being strongly negative plus a drastic repricing (lower) of rate volatility- while 10yr yields make NEW HIGHS- is not the shark you bulls want to jump"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706450803802665288)  2023-09-25T23:29Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"it's merely a reflection of expectations. and if rates are at their highs and the price of expectations reflects less uncertainty. Time to accept which way the wind blows and prepare accordingly. https://x.com/Sayter/status/1706452134638518534 https://x.com/Sayter/status/1706452134638518534"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706453425007821029)  2023-09-25T23:39Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"@Bishkekskii1991 Gamma buys time and traditionally time allows for passive flows to arrest a downtrend. But nothing is guaranteed because of gamma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706459303379394619)  2023-09-26T00:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes- equity bulls previously had a lower expected forward path of rates to support the possibility that ERP / real yield relationship would be short lived. It seems increasingly that higher rates are here to stay and not only will equity risk premia have to adjust to this reality- but it will have to do so as the economy inflects and the impact of higher rates rolls through less profitable companies taking employment with it. The Fed has shown remarkable resolve. If we are to assume anything- they will be *late* at the very least"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706464420770021626)  2023-09-26T00:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Its important to stop and do the math. Outstanding position = [-----] Market makers are short. Moving from [---] to [---] delta requires [----] ES futures to be bought to adjust the hedge. Anybody have the daily volume of either ESZ3 or the Dec BTIC contract handy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706471203861344747)  2023-09-26T00:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And note- this hedge buyback is not a unanimous decision. A variety of counter parties hold the puts. Some hedging continuously and some at close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706471205438394516)  2023-09-26T00:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And this morning what will trend Jamie Dimon says the worlds not ready for 7% rates. 7% That was my target all along Most Important Point I'll make all year. Remember last year when the market kept selling off but realized and implied vols kept going down Recall the rationale Rates (yield) / equity correlation being strongly negative plus a drastic repricing (lower) of rate volatility- https://t.co/shpcB7gld3 Most Important Point I'll make all year. Remember last year when the market kept selling off but realized and implied vols kept going down Recall the rationale Rates (yield) / equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706623554421194895)  2023-09-26T10:55Z 13K followers, [---] engagements


"SPX [----] [----] Call Spread looks like aggressive buyer $34.75 - $35.00 Could it be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706718369855291620)  2023-09-26T17:12Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"Big block trades hitting the tape today in puts and calls on the buy side. Some of this reflecting speculative delta entries (bullish) while some looking more like near dates downside vol bids to cover. As bearish as weve been- these are common markets of an interim low. Bears- stay alert. And if you shorted 6% ago you know what that Cramer guy says about pigs 🍻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1706782425311780998)  2023-09-26T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"No breach yet today. Just to be clear- This flow is not *dumb money*- but it should go without saying. "there are no sure things." Time-frames also vary. When this trader hit it big with his July-Aug short (August August31st and Sep Put Spreads) they were severely under-water at one point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707060852476596232)  2023-09-27T15:53Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"Yesterday late in the day were emergent signs of a downside bid-to-cover (in near dated volatility)- That continued this morning with a large block trade client appears to be buying Oct [----] / Oct [----] Risk Reversal (buying Put selling Call) 5000x. More of the same theme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707085604310200534)  2023-09-27T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Welcome to JHEQX / JPM (SPX) Collar Day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707747657937002742)  2023-09-29T13:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Cut through sensationalism Learn the truth about the Quarterly SPX Collar (JHEQX / JPM) trade Get on our newsletter by the close. We'll cover -New Trade -Strike Selection -Hedging -Market Impact .at execution & during its 3-mo life 👉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707750185999188351)  2023-09-29T13:32Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements


"Updates after close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707764226922537182)  2023-09-29T14:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"and it's done: Fund buys the Dec 29th '23 [----] - [----] Put Spread sells the [----] Call Collar is paired with the 0DTE [----] Calls. Trade is +41100 Put Spread Collars with [-----] [----] Calls and trades for a price of $345M (approx) vs. [----] (Delta Neutral at trade but not at close.) Cut through sensationalism Learn the truth about the Quarterly SPX Collar (JHEQX / JPM) trade Get on our newsletter by the close. We'll cover -New Trade -Strike Selection -Hedging -Market Impact .at execution & during its 3-mo life 👉 https://t.co/2AkjRxls2P https://t.co/r8lj0nCY2k Cut through sensationalism Learn the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707828353644797964)  2023-09-29T18:43Z 12.8K followers, 19.1K engagements


"MOC today $1B for sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707847662832103649)  2023-09-29T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The massive volume you'll see hit after the close will be a RE-STRIKING of the big SPX collar. -it's NOT a 2nd trade. It's meaningless. .it has to do with the ITM 0DTE call. Confused Tonight's Newsletter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707851710620729594)  2023-09-29T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Fund rolls up the Put Spread (in the collar) to: [----] - [----] and adjusts the short Call from [----] to: [----] FINAL Version: Dec29th [----] [----] [----] Put Spread Collar (+41100x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707851712386486473)  2023-09-29T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you were a betting man -which trade do you follow Put Spread Collar - hedge for a "hedged equity" fund 👉 DELTA IMPACT equal to selling 38K minis Call Spreads - Trader spends $200M on over 75k Spreads expiring [--] wks 👉 DELTA IMPACT equal to buying 35K minis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1707869602988884430)  2023-09-29T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wild ride right Id imagine tactically theres pressure all day from the pre-positioning among those typically involved in the trade. IE if you know you will need to sell 1k by close you are sitting on the offer all day. In the last [--] minutes we usually see widening along with volatility- and by that time I imagine the selling pressure was already mostly exhausted (on the BTIC) Crazy looking spike into the last few minutes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1708177988255097249)  2023-09-30T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"SPX 0DTE Going Into the Day: SPX Oct [--] '23 🚩 Max Pain: [----] Max Call OI: 4500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1708781821838717105)  2023-10-02T09:51Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Whale gunning for 100k Call Spreads. getting close. Will be profiling position along with premium spent delta/gamma vega impact for this evening's newsletter- 🍻 One of *the* biggest spec longs we've seen in the SPX since the [----] Election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709203996978622837)  2023-10-03T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".per Goldman Sachs this morning: "the pace of CTA unwinds in ES (SPX) futures (magnitude + speed) has been the *largest* on record. $40bn of SPX was sold over the last [--] sessions.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709224106816688211)  2023-10-03T15:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Good money after bad Today before the selloff- .SPX 🐳 inhaled 17k Call Spreads (Nov10 & [--] 4400-4600) That's 101k total $333m on the line👀 Tonight's Newsletter (9:30 PM ET) .trade Summary .PNL 😬 .Greeks .Market impact discussion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709347081997967428)  2023-10-03T23:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Scott Rubner @ GS. "positive set-up for the rest of Q4 is about as good as I have seen once we clear this flow-of-funds supply (2H Oct)" "worst of market technicals will be behind us by end of next week.around timing of Oct-12th CPI & start of qtly earnings (low bar)""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709348982135169528)  2023-10-03T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Me reading this note after loading the boat on SPX calls late this afternoon 😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709349497283698696)  2023-10-03T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Given the nascent rates/equities correlation- this is a key upside risk/catalyst going into End of Year- Goldman models $334 Billion worth of bonds to buy in up 2std dev tape over the next month and $67bn to buy in a down 2.5std dev tape"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709523709000610018)  2023-10-04T10:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@unusual_whales Is this benchmarked to tiny homes in Oklahoma Which major job market has housing available for $1600/month all-in at 8% rates after property taxes and insurance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709529905258529260)  2023-10-04T11:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SPX 0DTE Going Into the Day: SPX Oct 4th '23 🚩 Max Pain: [----] Max Call: 4300"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709555535828095190)  2023-10-04T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"sleeping beauty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709591582813348171)  2023-10-04T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"MOC imbalance $2.3b for sale Market seems to be absorbing it gracefully. 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709659580572074111)  2023-10-04T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yikes. beware the snap-back (h/t GS via ZeroHedge/TME)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1709758318602768584)  2023-10-05T02:32Z 24.8K followers, [----] engagements


"MOC imbalance $3.6 bn to sell Won't be enough to unravel this bull run off the intraday lows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1710383287200362902)  2023-10-06T19:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"MOC imbalance $1.8 bn for sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711470014459478430)  2023-10-09T19:53Z 13K followers, [----] engagements


".according to GS this afternoon In US. CTAs are short -$47bn of equities after selling $88bn over the last [--] sessions 👀 "largest US short position for this cohort on record" Per GS model the CTAs are now buyers of SPX in *every scenario* over the next month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711586525845090536)  2023-10-10T03:36Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements


"Strong seasonals = tailwind for equities CTAs = tailwind for equities 10YR off its high . . . . . . will we see CTAs bid bonds and send everyone chasing the Santa / Year-End rally .flip-flopping macro narratives chasing systematic-driven prices into a global conflict. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711587858622930982)  2023-10-10T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tonight- our SPX Whale sleeps easy. . . .back in the $$ after today's spot up / vol up action🤑"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711588583729996111)  2023-10-10T03:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"from ZeroHedge: ".dealer gamma had 'just turned positive' providing further self-reinforcing gunpowder for a squeeze higher." positive gamma does not reinforce the direction of travel. It *can* still be considered a bullish / supportive backdrop. How [--] / 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711916322601214172)  2023-10-11T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Positive gamma markets are more stable. Dealers sell rallies constraining price- & buy dips supporting price. All passive flow = buying Give US ETFs enough *time* & bids will show up Positive gamma stabilizes falling markets. buying time for traditional inflows 🎯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1711916324362875007)  2023-10-11T01:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For those keeping score SPX WHALE *is* still in the black here. +$125M vs [----] ES Every $1 UP (DOWN) in ES = $3.2M UP (DOWN) in PNL Trader is LONG Equivalent of 64k ES Futures -which is 3.1% of ES OI -or 4.3% ADV 👀 Full update in tonight's Newsletter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712471994271432941)  2023-10-12T14:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


".almost like our tweet was a siren call. Big adjustments / taking gains off the table today. We will recap it all on the newsletter tonight and give updates on what remains 🎯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712504002464662010)  2023-10-12T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SPOT UP VOL UP action this morning. Relentless. and *VERY* good for our SPX WHALE'S book. Remember. he's not just long a ton of delta- but VEGA too. A 1% shift higher in Nov IV = +$33M 🤑"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712829585195151722)  2023-10-13T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"the giant retail SPX Call Spread position. 👀 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712829922723434985)  2023-10-13T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*MICHIGAN YEAR-AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ROSE TO 3.8% VS 3.2% *MICHIGAN PRELIM. OCT. CONSUMER SENTIMENT AT 63.0; EST. [--] *MICHIGAN 5-10 YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ROSE TO 3.0% VS 2.8%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712831636268601563)  2023-10-13T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SamanthaLaDuc .morning started out well for this position but the fade has cost nearly 40% of unrealized gains 👀 This weekend's newsletter Will update position greeks & performance &highlight meaningful flows & developments .as we head into OPEX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712835775140696280)  2023-10-13T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".weekend nerves this Friday the 13th 👀 #VIX #SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1712837869193064495)  2023-10-13T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I was stunned the Whale didn't liquidate after the multiple rejections around [----] Days ago he could have been out of the position for a $150M gain. Instead it looks like we're talking about a $200M + loss👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1715797893477495131)  2023-10-21T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What's interesting about the nascent uptick in (inverse) VIX beta to SPX. this all emerged on the back of dealer positioning which was short vanna In other words- given the giant Nov Call Spread which was open until Friday (tears.) Dealers were *longer* vol on selloffs 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716121609109458975)  2023-10-22T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Despite many very compelling reasons to be in cash or defensively hedged at the moment. Goldman points out "renting" upside right now is a cheap replacement for equity into year end. 3m SPX Call price as % of index below 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716169337529053644)  2023-10-22T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For those who missed the newsletter and the closing of the SPX Whale Call Spread chapter: In its entirety The SPX Whale Finally gets *beached*. . "  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716189829774332004)  2023-10-22T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"After [--] days of stormy waters. .the tide finally went out 👀 A Quick Recap from the Week Prior Despite the "HOT" October [--] CPI. SPX pressed higher for most of the morning session"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716190379135942719)  2023-10-22T20:30Z 12.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Whether due to option hedging systematic buying or plain old seasonal inflows- the market was quick to shake off a hotter than expected CPI print (mom +.40% vs .30% consensus) chopping sideways & grinding higher for most of the morning. -until the 1:00 PM 30Y TSY Auction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716190674209423519)  2023-10-22T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"All-in-all. Selling $4.3bn in DELTA Selling 16mm in VEGA .which surely helped on Friday to keep the lid on ES. but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716195298031054877)  2023-10-22T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Reasons to be cautious (as a bear). Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator keeps going lower. *contrarian buy signal* in this range. Median 3-month returns post buy signal US Stocks +5.4% Global Stocks +7.6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716219687518822546)  2023-10-22T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And Short Interest is high. Emerging outperformance in "most short" baskets should be a clear sign to take profit on the short side as well (or swing long with convexity)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716219689561358508)  2023-10-22T22:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"and don't forget the resumption of meaningful buyback activity is around the corner. Window will not close again until the second week of Dec. We don't love equities right now but you have to respect the pain trade:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716219697056604614)  2023-10-22T22:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".I hate to say it- I'd go long the call spreads here 😆 Why Buybacks (back) CTA bid looming in equities + bonds Short covering👀 FOMO Santa Rally Low bar for GDP BOJ FOMC / De-escalation will be RISK ON I'd prepare for big short thereafter Not financial advice. YMMV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1716994471190044712)  2023-10-25T01:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TommyCIII @Chunweichan indeed and if equity/rates correlation remains what it has been it all pulls in the same direction 🎅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1717142262415519852)  2023-10-25T11:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"With 10YR pushing through 4.90% again on its way sharply to [----] and VIX pressing [--] very sensitive to levels here as cash flirts with [----] There is no need to be a hero picking bottoms. You want to see a trend reverse/establish first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1717180076796604503)  2023-10-25T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For those who think [--] VIX is high h/t Barclays GVP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1717518188827594899)  2023-10-26T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Excellent Discussion Yesterday w/ UBS Equity Index Derivatives & Mandy Xu from Cboe Global Markets "Equity Volatility Outlook & Discussion on 0DTE Options" From Dispersion to 0DTE lot of great stuff🍻 Mandy Xu has been doing great things @ Cboe 👍 If you missed it 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1717881684014616820)  2023-10-27T12:31Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Important week ahead. Chart below suggests VIX is underperforming on the selloff. not as "sensitive" to spot as we should expect especially as SPX tests important levels ES [----] seems like a reasonable buy entry. But what may flows be telling us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1718286098739114010)  2023-10-28T15:18Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements


"Muted VIX on the way down was *the story* of [----]. This happens when. 1) Funds degrossing/taking down nets (cutting positions) Less hedge demand IV 2) Funds/HFs *already* well-hedged. monetizing (selling options). More vol supply IV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1718286100593058089)  2023-10-28T15:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Is there any evidence of this Mixed. Goldman Derivs "Flow on the desk was broadly restructuring of downside protection w/several customers rolling short-dated puts" (Light hedge monetization) Flows DecQ [----] [----] Put Spread. SOLD (to close) 4600x @ $143.70 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1718286101960352011)  2023-10-28T15:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Lot of good reasons for markets to be spooked on Halloween👀 but each day w/o major negative outcome (passage of time raises the bar) .tames the VIX 🔁 & draws in Santa Rally FOMO We profiled a LOT of big risk-on trades in today's AM newsletter today. same tone 🎯🎅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1719048262160695476)  2023-10-30T17:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GS CTA forward flow modeling as of 1-2 weeks ago had an odd choppy short term flow prediction baked in while suggesting it would resolve into a buyers in all scenarios setup with an outsized upside skew fit for a Santa Rally 🤷♂ Flawless modern quant strats 🫠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1719143883760623891)  2023-10-31T00:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Perhaps CTAs have outgrown their tanks per GS yesterday on the close: "CTA positioning still short. S&P length is now -$42bn SPX (0%ile rank); today our flow projections flipped CTAs to BUYERS of S&P in ALL SCENARIOS over the next week with BIG DEMAND modelled in an UP 2STD tape over the next one month (+$82bn SPX). CTA level to watch is [----] (MT threshold)" vroom vroom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1720606064381403631)  2023-11-04T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Given the rush to dump hedges and chase upside/ equity replacement via long calls spreads & ratios big volumes make sense. PMs & traders who caught this move w/ spreads would be taking $$ out by selling call condors for example 0DTE volumes really inflate the perception that the data behind a metric is telling us something big but any real conclusions on volume or OI data imho should be based on data w/0DTE filtered out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1721374849942130909)  2023-11-06T03:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".their mechanical hedging demands result in a fairly continuous supportive bid to the market. It's not enough to turn things around of course and should not be thought of as a BTFD-style impulse. (far from it) However it does buy *time* with this support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1721876054506152407)  2023-11-07T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Like a "shock absorber" on the way down- dealers hedging long gamma help to convert a correction in "price" to a correction in "time" .as absorbing some of the selling at range lows mutes the range and whether passive or discretionary- buying flows ALWAYS come back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1721876061875519515)  2023-11-07T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mudbuutt Just a friendly reminder While I think CPI has fallen off the institutional risk radar as attention now shifts (rightfully so) to factors influencing longer end yields You should watch VIX expiry and the week after SPX OPEX for any signs of the year end trend forming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1722082344838819980)  2023-11-08T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What's with this sudden grind Popular term last month was "equity replacement" .notoriously tough year for PNLs and fund performance and the risk backdrop we were staring at in October didn't make it easy on the PM who was noncommittal with no room for error"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1722392067727372375)  2023-11-08T23:14Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements


"Very ugly 30Y auction But the market held ground at [----] and MOC came in strong at $2.6B to BUY The WHALE came in late to inhale the bottom of the range Place your bets 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1722733817251676296)  2023-11-09T21:52Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements


".oh look. A clue 🧐 Less talked about than CTAs for example. but the flow sizes are right there- and "bid only""  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1723144059986862519)  2023-11-11T01:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SpecialSitsNews you mean a weak period in the calendar where option flows are dominated by hedging / neg beta trades. has to absorb even *more* liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727045395493384692)  2023-11-21T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"SPX FLOW talking about PUMPS secret MM cabal account spotted 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727148558225482124)  2023-11-22T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


".and whoosh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727411491673186474)  2023-11-22T19:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"un-whooshing. stay tuned for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727417698299330707)  2023-11-22T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Only *2* of the hedged equity strategies studied had a LOWER risk-adjusted return than the S&P [---]. . . 1) Long 1m Put rolling monthly 2) Long 1m Put Spread rolling monthly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727725021156487589)  2023-11-23T16:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Recent lookbacks which include the sharp 1H Nov'23 rally highlight both the *cost of hedging* and the effective cost of forgoing upside participation when the market rips through the Call you sold to finance your protection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727725023123615903)  2023-11-23T16:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".while the final table showing 3m performance of the same strategies should bring to mind the importance (and luck) of timing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727725024805531674)  2023-11-23T16:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"As concentrations among similar strategies grow increasing reflexivity- .investors should demand hedging strategies that ignore traditional calendar constraints (ie end of quarter basis) or involve new approaches to monetization & timing of rolls (our hypothesis not GS)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727725026411950561)  2023-11-23T16:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"From JPM (11/22)- "Retail investors net bought +$4.8B of cash equities this past week +2.3 standard deviations above the last 12M average and the highest weekly inflow recorded since April 2022." ($2.7B in ETFs & $2.1B in single names)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1727996601535226186)  2023-11-24T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I agree. feel it's a small swing though. Hard to fight the broader trend and the rush to chase the year-end rally here. systematic buying has largely exhausted from the CTA side and some large block trades have pointed to both 1) downside hedging (ES Mar [----] Puts for example) and lightening up on near dated upside delta and vol (big block sellers Dec [----] Calls and Dec [----] [----] Call Spread Weds) will be looking to hold my nose & buy the dip if it comes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728083703341912088)  2023-11-24T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@HansJAlbrecht Dont forget- VIX is: 1) a forward measure- not a lookback and 2) not the same as at-the-money / upside implied vol and there are many ways to think of volatility beyond close-close px"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728324781962056146)  2023-11-25T08:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"via TME/ZH Remember- Skew DOESNT always mean investors are selling hedges In fact most flows on sharp rallies are SELLING winners: ITM calls near the $ call ratios & ROLLING UP PUTS This pressures skew Do they convey the same meaning as abandoning hedges Beware what you believe when you learn from the naive We explain all this in detail frequently on our newsletter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728407113439854760)  2023-11-25T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"MMF with 8.3tn doesn't mean it will *all* go to equities. But overall- agreed. When large rotations occur or major shifts in allocations are underway (like midyear '23) CTAs et al are fairly small comparatively. When it's all tallied up systematic strategies account for probably [--] - 1.5tn according to what I've most recently read"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728510326151250172)  2023-11-25T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Hedge funds dumping info tech & comms @ fastest rate in [--] months 👀 these sales are almost entirely a function of liquidating longs (as opposed to short sales)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728586036232520038)  2023-11-26T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Basic vanilla hedging (not event-driven) often lines up with end of month quarter or year settlements- .investors need term hedges to protect the values they see on statements in reports etc. OI in end-of-month tenors will reflect a greater degree of this positioning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728853907173147099)  2023-11-26T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"On the subject of divergent CTA / systematic flow estimates among reputable sources. . . Mike Green @t1alpha explains it best at the 51:31 mark"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1728872419312726485)  2023-11-26T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"per Nomura AUM growth in listed option selling ETFs. important to remember- this is the "above the surface" portion of the iceberg Lot of vol selling going on that doesn't flow to listed ETFs but sits in RIA / SMA / structured product offerings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729183595766718896)  2023-11-27T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mudbuutt @jaredhstocks @spotgamma Christmas coming. will there be a catalyst if we continue to rally I see a good chance for a spot-up VIX-up moment as dealer gamma concentration is heaviest between 4500-4550 (as I see it)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729339035003346993)  2023-11-28T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


""We believe (net selling in US TMT) was driven by fundamental HFs selling NVDA long. as investors realize for 2nd qtr in a row NVDA's bar is impossibly high "We haven't seen HFs sell rest of the super cap tech longs (AMZN MSFT GOOGL META = very crowded longs)" - GS 11/27"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729342952911032351)  2023-11-28T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Goldman making waves with the $9b estimate on dealer long gamma They see it as a record- there's no way to know for sure. Jul was in this range as well. They note today: Clients rolling up puts (buying put spreads) & replacing long delta positions with calls into year-end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729351089986617644)  2023-11-28T04:06Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements


"@JaguarAnalytics Dec - Dec24 SPX roll is [---] Dec24 SPX "ATM" forward is currently [----] I think this is not appreciated enough when discussing cost of insuring spot w/long tenors in a + rate regime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729370476122669250)  2023-11-28T05:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".kind of yes. D = sum of PV of dividends in-term Higher rates go the more you need to be compensated for *not* holding cash (short term risk free yield) Today's spot is not the same as spot 1-yr from now all else constant. So by looking at 100% spot you are not hedging yourself as much as you think you are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729471467786580257)  2023-11-28T12:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


""CTAs have run out of steam" = marginal buying pressure is / has faded." Global eq buying of $150+ bn month to date is largest on record per Goldman -no we aren't immediately selling off. But ammo in S&P is expended. Expect flattish flows and big sell skew into EOY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729473566825939146)  2023-11-28T12:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Spot up VOL up still in play- I doubt the positioning dynamics have "resolved". What did happen Just a guess of course but a lot of the selling that reversed ES off of [----] was potentially some of that 9-11bn (various estimates) of month-end pension rebalancing flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1729971687830044841)  2023-11-29T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


".VIX isn't the only volatility index signaling complacency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1730805773813367105)  2023-12-02T04:27Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements


"GS flagging the combination of low vol & flattening of SKEW as Puts are repricing cheap relative to calls after the high RV upside ramp we saw last month. .buying + rolling 1m puts however tends to be a "worst-of" when it comes to systematic hedging styles buyer beware"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1730818737341636967)  2023-12-02T05:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@gruust how could spending be deflationary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1730847934634196992)  2023-12-02T07:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"What comes after "higher for longer" rate levels historically speaking. HIGHER-FOR-LONGER VOLATILITY LEVELS 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1730987733508636927)  2023-12-02T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"remember Christmas 2018"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1730987759660089663)  2023-12-02T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SPX 1M Skew (25d Put - ATM IVOL) Last time it was in this range was 7/18- and we topped [--] days later on 7/31 *stretched*"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1731682452903502300)  2023-12-04T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"From buy skew to SELL skew. Latest from GS on CTAs- Over [--] Week Flat +$14b (+590m SPX) Up +$19b (-300m SPX) Down -$11b (-770m SPX) Over [--] Month Flat +$36b (+1b SPX) Up +$56b (-351m SPX) Down -$200b (-63b SPX) Key SPX Pivots S: [----] M: [----] LT: 4352"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1731863623998362019)  2023-12-05T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dailychartbook @MikeZaccardi but moving into a closing window- to be clear correct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1732433795159113807)  2023-12-06T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StocksRider @stephenharlinmd Think through the two sides- one side. the market maker. generally has no "need" to trade. The customer voluntarily entered the market to trade .and the dealer's hedging activity is what translates the customer's option order into underlying impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1732640582911066531)  2023-12-07T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SqueezeMetrics @CAndreisen This is true but the options market adds conditionality and nonlinearity to this as well as quirky outcomes related to distributing delta across time and of course occasionally reversing that distributed flow at once. These factors influence the behaviors of other non dealers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1733542457273454964)  2023-12-09T17:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Complacent VIX .only [--] of the last [--] years started with VIX under [--]. The VIX spiked in the first half of these years to an average peak of [--] w/an average associated SPX drawdown of -7.2%. Small sample . . . but none of the [--] years were positive YTD at time of spike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1733630364264861823)  2023-12-09T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2024 Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement Dates Fed/FOMC BOJ BOE ECB etc. Very helpful from Citi 🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1733631889842286646)  2023-12-09T23:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Are rate cuts good for stocks Well . . ."it depends" h/t GS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1733849046249509014)  2023-12-10T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jaredhstocks @MichaelMOTTCM @kayfabecapital @RJRCapital @warren_tt @SqueezeMetrics There are so many others that repeat predictably throughout time. I think most traders would be surprised at the volume of puts which are actually dealer-long. Each time you confirm a systematic vol flow its like unlocking a marginally more correct GEX template"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1734017531260678567)  2023-12-11T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Trade_The_Swing Powell will need to overdeliver on language tomorrow. in order to justify the market's '24 rate path consensus already baked in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1734576132710691141)  2023-12-12T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jaredhstocks Been long strangles and calendars and overselling 0dte to cover the carry for too long now 😆"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1734722611051917450)  2023-12-12T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Message heard Looks like aggressive buyer of SPX Jan [----] Puts (live) ahead of today's FOMC. Someone buys 6473x for $10 hitting the tape at 12:36 Meaning this kicked off our intraday leg higher in VIX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1735009817196888209)  2023-12-13T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Skew should come back strong by '24 as the long calls which dealers hold *below the money* from overwriting flows. will roll off. Once hedged a downside Call = Put. If dealers are stuffed with calls at 4500- they are quick to sell puts against this to improve gamma/theta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1735659208157065531)  2023-12-15T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Remember - VIX historically *lags* the hiking cycle. Will this time be different Will the speed of hikes (slope of the FF line) matter (h/t Deutsche Bank)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1735661258618101969)  2023-12-15T14:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dampedspring @JimJame74888138 Youd admit though the hedging impacts of the JHEQX collar at this point lean bullish (buyback outweighing new delta-for-sale) and the Greeks of the strike are too small (here) to matter much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1737602652773433537)  2023-12-20T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@VolatilityWiz Part of that is a mechanical function of hedging as variance comes out of the 0-3dte straddle but definitely more engagement when its a investment bank/fed/Illuminati conspiracy to rig markets against the [--] people who still short the events all the time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1737944861087793589)  2023-12-21T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"JEPY The Defiance ETF that sells SPX 0DTE at any IV daily 👀 - they're going to grow. - you're going to hear their name thrown around with words like "Volmageddon". ignore. SPX cratered through their naked short Puts yesterday .did they survive -130bps one. point. three. percent. So. should we worry about JEPY's "short-0DTE-at-any-IV" strategy as some existential threat to the market Nope. and here's why: .very conservative No excessive leverage .means *no forced covering* Even if they tripled the ratio of sold options to cash/TSY- they are virtually immune to the forced covering activity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1738051798781292838)  2023-12-22T04:20Z [--] followers, 17.5K engagements


"Big downside hedging flow today in ES/SPX options 🎯 SPX 28-Mar'24 4200/4400 Put Spread bought. 🎯 SPX Feb'24 4400/4600 Put Spread bought. 🎯 ES Mar'24 4400/4600 Put Spread bought. Worth watching Get trade details in tonight's newsletter http://www.volsignals.com http://www.volsignals.com http://www.volsignals.com http://www.volsignals.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/VolSignals/status/1738314087241548223)  2023-12-22T21:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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