# ![@TomSmith839 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1577210180307230720.png) @TomSmith839 Tom Smith

Tom Smith posts on X about $four, $pax, share, $ver the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1577210180307230720/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1577210180307230720/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -68%
- [--] Month [-------] +134%
- [--] Months [-------] -27%
- [--] Year [---------] +61%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1577210180307230720/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1577210180307230720/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -23%
- [--] Month [---] -5.80%
- [--] Months [---] +14%
- [--] Year [---] +42%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1577210180307230720/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1577210180307230720/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.33%
- [--] Month [-----] +4.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +18%
- [--] Year [-----] +87%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1577210180307230720/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1577210180307230720/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  59.39% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  27.88% [finance](/list/finance)  27.27% [countries](/list/countries)  6.06% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  #2683 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  3.64% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2.42% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  0.61% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  0.61%

**Social topic influence**
[$four](/topic/$four) #11, [$pax](/topic/$pax) #5, [share](/topic/share) 6.06%, [$ver](/topic/$ver) #2, [more than](/topic/more-than) 5.45%, [business](/topic/business) 5.45%, [$apo](/topic/$apo) #55, [$vrv](/topic/$vrv) #1, [$evo](/topic/$evo) 4.85%, [$eeft](/topic/$eeft) 4.85%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@kab604](/creator/undefined) [@jszhang0912](/creator/undefined) [@nasiraltaf91](/creator/undefined) [@bobspaysubstack](/creator/undefined) [@ilyakan2004](/creator/undefined) [@snowcapresearch](/creator/undefined) [@noalgos](/creator/undefined) [@jimmcmullenkc1](/creator/undefined) [@kairospraxis](/creator/undefined) [@ryanreeves](/creator/undefined) [@cash_flow_cap](/creator/undefined) [@industtourist](/creator/undefined) [@dimitrynakhla](/creator/undefined) [@mikechambers](/creator/undefined) [@invesquotes](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@p14capital](/creator/undefined) [@kilroyjay](/creator/undefined) [@aggiecio](/creator/undefined) [@huskerfootball](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Patria Investments Ltd. (PAX)](/topic/$pax) [Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)](/topic/$apo) [Evotec SE (EVO)](/topic/$evo) [Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT)](/topic/$eeft) [Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. (VINP)](/topic/$vinp) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Ares Management, Corp. (ARES)](/topic/$ares) [Toast, Inc. (TOST)](/topic/$tost) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (OWL)](/topic/$owl) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM)](/topic/$pubm) [Magnite, Inc. Common Stock (MGNI)](/topic/$mgni) [Civic (CVC)](/topic/$cvc) [Eden (EDEN)](/topic/$eden) [KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR)](/topic/$kkr) [Brookfield Asset Management Inc (BAM)](/topic/$bam) [Brookfield Corporation (BN)](/topic/$bn)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Patria Investments $PAX acquires 51% of Solis Investimentos CLO leader in Brazil 10% bump to FEAUM 40% bump to credit FEAUM Solis Investimentos grew FEAUM 45% CAGR over the last 4Y No purchase price mentioned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1993691771256103145)  2025-11-26T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Advertising will remain difficult for some time but some companies do look very cheap here Net cash profitable & cheap: $PUBM $ATY $TRMR $CRTO Net debt profitable & cheap: $MGNI $APPS $APP $MDGIF (Optically) expensive: $TTD $DV $IAS $RAMP $IS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1633407774745931776)  2023-03-08T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CVC $CVC.AS wants to go public at a 15B valuation which is 32x [----] FRE (MFE) and around 24x EV/EBITDA 186B in AUM and 98B in FPAUM Pricey"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1782683729405628605)  2024-04-23T08:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Don't see (but don't own) how SK Hynix Inc. $000660.KS $HY9H can be a bad investment Gonna do $30 EPS in [----] share price is around $140 What am I missing (Yes it's Korean)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1856284653465854278)  2024-11-12T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GLXZ (soon to be part of $EVO) extends licensing agreement with Pragmatic for another 5Y Pragmatic also known as $EVO competitor now sources games from their competitor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1892580541855072275)  2025-02-20T14:22Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements


"$PAX Patria Investments reportedly bidding $1B for Banmedica ( $UNH Latam division) They make 'more than $200m EBITDA per year' which would be an undemanding multiple Don't really care whether this deal goes through or not I'm excited that this (relatively) small LatAm asset manager is (able to) doing $1B bids https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/unitedhealth-eyes-1-billion-deal-exit-latin-america-insurer-refocuses-us-sources-2025-06-09/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1932362806692643129)  2025-06-10T09:02Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements


"A lot can happen in the next 5Y but if you believe Ceragon products are top tier & Chinese competitors can't capture market share in US & India a quadrupling market & a modest increase in market share & operating margin could be quite attractive $CRNT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1943232147562570042)  2025-07-10T08:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For the total execution failure that Worldline $WLN $WLN.PA is I remain convinced someone should be willing to pay more than 3B EV (1B MC) for a company that does 500B in MSV They make 850m in Adj. EBITDA & are selling non strategic assets (whatever that means)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1950478862095097965)  2025-07-30T08:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CVC $CVC.AS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1973728661061976501)  2025-10-02T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$WLN $WLN.PA MC down to 670m and EV to 2.8B They managed to sell the only growing segment in the business (MeTS) for 410m or 4.1x EV/EBITDA Where does mgmt expect the non-growing remaining business to trade at Either way if you subtract the 100m MeTS EBITDA assume 5% decline in the remaining business & a 50m cost reduction it's currently trading at 3.1x [----] EV/EBITDA https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978061921837297674 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978061921837297674"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1978061921837297674)  2025-10-14T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Edenred $EDEN $EDEN.PA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1980565899795984677)  2025-10-21T09:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WLN.PA $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1985254039970316460)  2025-11-03T07:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Patria Investments $PAX [--] out of the [--] largest LatAm PE funds 7.8% of Afores (pension funds) in Alternatives vs. 30% in US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1985302419765391559)  2025-11-03T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Why are they down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1985390195768775086)  2025-11-03T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The poor people subscribing to the $500m $WLN $WLN.PA capital increase at [----] while the SP now drops to 1.8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1986352758790771032)  2025-11-06T08:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I refuse to believe the market is correct on $EEFT (NTM EPS estimates keep on going up . for now) $EEFT https://t.co/zVfQxP4JRk $EEFT https://t.co/zVfQxP4JRk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1989313390683001006)  2025-11-14T12:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PAX & $UNH agree on $1B deal on Banmedica A small asset manager like Patria Investments doing $1B deals 🙌 $PAX Patria Investments reportedly bidding $1B for Banmedica ( $UNH Latam division) They make 'more than $200m EBITDA per year' which would be an undemanding multiple Don't really care whether this deal goes through or not I'm excited that this (relatively) small LatAm asset $PAX Patria Investments reportedly bidding $1B for Banmedica ( $UNH Latam division) They make 'more than $200m EBITDA per year' which would be an undemanding multiple Don't really care whether this deal goes through"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1995426179910861246)  2025-12-01T09:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Now $WLN $WLN.PA selling an asset with 80% EBITDA and 60% FCF margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1998045265614524888)  2025-12-08T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$APO Marc Rowan on public vs. private liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1999023268716761368)  2025-12-11T07:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"New CFO and new (role) COO for Patria Investments $PAX https://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-investments-limited-announces-new-chief-operating-officer https://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-investments-limited-announces-new-chief-operating-officer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2003034381162782978)  2025-12-22T09:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I want to like TIC Solutions $TIC but 4% growth in [----] and 4x Net Debt/EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2005936842714042693)  2025-12-30T09:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"On the news of Apple Card moving from GS to JPM Chase some notes from $CCRD & $EEFT mgmt: - They will get another $35m in [----] and in [----] from GS (based on Apple/JPM Chase news it will take [--] months to coonvert - A termination fee still applies when GS ends the contract before [----] (the earlier it terminates the higher so could assume this is another multi million $) - GS gap can be filled within 2-3Y - Non-GS revenue was said to grow 30% CAGR through [----] by CCRD (EEFT said they can get that higher ; cross-sell with REN) - Euronet mgmt was fully aware they weren't going to get GS revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2009187365122695448)  2026-01-08T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"All this talk about cash going away and cash withdrawals at ATMs in the UK up YoY for the fourth consecutive year (by @_mike_chambers_) $EEFT $NATL $BCO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2010617183613727152)  2026-01-12T07:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is the ridiculousness of how $FOUR is treated DB: organic growth could be 'as low as' 12-15% in Q425 and FY26 so they set a PT of 10x FCF. Other companies can do the same 12-15% organic growth and analysts would put a 20x multiple on it. This is step [--] of the ridiculousness. Step [--] is that this organic growth rate of 12-15% (you can set the bar higher or lower at your own liking) is about half of total growth. This is what makes Shift4 management team so special. They keep finding ways to increase TPV (be it geographic expansion new verticals new cross-sell customer base .). They can and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2012140467983376883)  2026-01-16T12:30Z [----] followers, 11.9K engagements


"SBC is 100% of OCF and 26% of Revenue $TEAM Its zero $ for shareholders zero I really didnt think it was going to be this bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2013343644632088980)  2026-01-19T20:11Z [----] followers, 55K engagements


"$THRY share price 62% lower in [--] months and at 1x [----] EV/SaaS Sales and 6.5x EV/Saas EBITDA SaaS is about half of the business (in 2025) and set to grow double digits for the foreseeable future On track to pay off (all) debt with legacy marketing CF If not vibe coded away by AI pretty good deal (I thought this [--] months ago as well though) Thryv Holdings $THRY now at 1.7x [----] EV/SAAS Sales (not including the Marketing Services) and medium term targets for the SAAS are 20% CAGR & 20% EBITDA margins. Would result in $1B in SAAS Revenue (= Total Revenue) & $200M in EBITDA in [----]. In the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2013884836511900014)  2026-01-21T08:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"First cross-sell (CCRD + REN) out of [--] by April [----] following $EEFT notes on the Northland Call Includes revolving credit (= CCRD) 300m deposit accounts and $5T in deposits globally As mentioned in the comments by DXC & MasterCard previously (see third screenshot) there is essentially [--] player that can quickly launch (revolving) credit card programs 7x [----] P/E currently https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013959637343625695 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013959637343625695"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2013959637343625695)  2026-01-21T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The most staggering fact about $CSU $CSU.TO 45% drop from ATH is that valuation was never excessive (given double digit growth 20% ROIC etc.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2014314204342202780)  2026-01-22T12:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$EQT purchases Coller Capital for $3.2B (& $500m earnouts) or 17.5x [----] EV/ FR EBITDA $40B FEAUM by end of [----] (Not apples to apples but $PAX still at (only) $2.8B with probably north $50B in FEAUM by end of [----] and $70B by end of 2027)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2014366882107727991)  2026-01-22T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I fully acknowledge I sound like a broken record but the most beautiful thing about this table is that Shift4 $FOUR buys companies at the same multiple (EBITDA instead of Revenue obviously) and usually EBITDA doubles within the next 3Y Adding Brex to long list of #B2B M&A comps. Giving them forward revenue of $825MM () implies 6.2x at lower end of range. $BILL at 3x. https://t.co/NkE793ALXe Adding Brex to long list of #B2B M&A comps. Giving them forward revenue of $825MM () implies 6.2x at lower end of range. $BILL at 3x. https://t.co/NkE793ALXe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2014680120456303016)  2026-01-23T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Do analysts have it wrong about $PAR $60m FCF in [----] (about $30m in SBC) on a $1.2B MC & $1.5B EV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2016848845435548012)  2026-01-29T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Invesquotes Depends on the relative return on capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2016900189823353158)  2026-01-29T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Some follow on from Q4 & FY25 earnings: - Fundraising was very good in Q4 ($1.7B) and FY25 ($7.7B) ; mgmt keeps fundraising guidance for [--] ($7B) & [--] ($8B) and calls out 'conservatism' as momentum is good - AUM up 26% YoY FEAUM up 24% FRR up 13% FRE up 17% & FRE/share up 15% ; Pending FEAUM $2.9B ; NAPF $1.58/share (mgmt called out this does not include PE Fund IV & V as they are not performing (cfr. Snowcap short report) ; Important note here is that FRR or Unrealized Performance Fees (bonuses) aren't calculated on NAV or in other words: revenues aren't tied to marks of the funds (in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019032898179846486)  2026-02-04T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Nasiraltaf91 Not sure it will rerate in the short term. Its at 10x FRE which could be argued is fair given BR interest rates are at 15%. Could indeed rerate higher if BR interest rate goes to for example 10% In the meantime you get a 15% grower with a 4.5% dividend yield at 10x FRE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019377458529858018)  2026-02-05T11:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"We dont even consider the possibility anymore that these software companies (you know up until 2Y ago the best companies in the world) arent total zeros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019467042315776330)  2026-02-05T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@fiscal_ai Just for fun: add SBC to the graph"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019661535682142362)  2026-02-06T06:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What does appropriately means $APO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1993053994496016774)  2025-11-24T20:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack People don't like it but FOUR gonna be higher topline growth at half the valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2022329595769602467)  2026-02-13T15:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Idea is that alternative investments will get above 1% of AUM (as it is in US EU) and that $PAX & $VINP have some local advantages compared to their bigger peers https://www.df.cl/senal-df/el-deal/patria-investments-vs-vinci-compass-la-carrera-de-los-assets-managers-por https://www.df.cl/senal-df/el-deal/patria-investments-vs-vinci-compass-la-carrera-de-los-assets-managers-por"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1897551440437981320)  2025-03-06T07:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone knowledgeable about Patria Investments $PAX as to why they can end up raising $7B in [----] (17% above target of $6B) and still only end up in the lower end of FRE range when fee rate (94 bps) and FRE margin (59%) are not the issue Timing of FEAUM Slower deployment/higher pending FEAUM . https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986090358451671513 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986090358451671513"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1986090358451671513)  2025-11-05T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1 week later and Solis acquires ITER Investimenos so adds another $550m to the Credit AUM of $PAX Pretty smooth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1996997476537037059)  2025-12-05T17:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Another week later and we have to acquisition of RBR Gesto $PAX Another 3.3% bump to FEAUM $1.3B FEAUM at [--] bps spread and 'highly accretive FRE margin' could be around $8m FRE Increases [----] FRE ($1.3) with $0.05 or 4% (together with Solis 8.5%) Totally different M&A than Solis (lower growth but higher spread highly accretive lower 'effort' low integration risk) Very very sweet deal (nu purchase price mentioned but let's assume 10x FRE so $80m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1999109786885824887)  2025-12-11T13:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Shfit4 management is the exact opposite 🙌 $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2013182987119046675)  2026-01-19T09:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I've also skimmed through the Patria Investments $PAX short report and Snowcap did put work in it but it's pretty nitpicking from the start: [--]. On PE valuation marks of on avg. 15x EV/EBITDA: high but not uncommon. These companies do seem to be performing badly but BR interest rates at 15% and could reasonably go to 10% [--]. On PE exits to own funds: also not uncommon and Delly's was JV between Patria and CVC (wouldn't question CVC) [--]. On PE concentration: as you said PE going down in favor of Infra Credit & RE. Solis and RBR M&A alone bring the estimated 'PE & Infra FRE concentration down from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2016490694957846540)  2026-01-28T12:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$EEFT https://www.riamoneytransfer.com/en/blog/you-can-now-send-money-with-ria-through-whatsapp/ https://www.riamoneytransfer.com/en/blog/you-can-now-send-money-with-ria-through-whatsapp/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2016580740595568883)  2026-01-28T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Third M&A for Patria Investments $PAX in a rather short timespan: buys WP Global Partners for $30m (1.7% of $1.8B FPAUM) Adds +10 investment professionals and +120 GP relationships Assume [----] bps fee rate and 30% FRE margin (just guessing here) it's about 7x FRE Would add $4m in FRE or 2.5$c/share which would put [----] FRE/share very close to $1.6 (which is the bottom range of [----] outlook FRE/share) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018276438906908701 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018276438906908701"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2018276438906908701)  2026-02-02T10:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@IlyaKan2004 @SnowCapResearch Patria Investments $PAX brings forward its Q4 & FY25 results to tomorrow (probably to talk about the short report (& its [--] acquisitions) Should bring some comfort to investors https://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-announces-date-change-its-fourth-quarter-full-year-2025 https://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-announces-date-change-its-fourth-quarter-full-year-2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2018320501160939794)  2026-02-02T13:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I know it's a bear case right now but Shift4 $FOUR trades at roughly 10x [----] Subscription (& other) Revenue (or SaaS Revenue/ARR if you want) 30% YoY and it is very much not part of the business model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2018998184073113832)  2026-02-04T10:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PAX Patria Investments @IlyaKan2004 @SnowCapResearch Some follow on from Q4 & FY25 earnings: - Fundraising was very good in Q4 ($1.7B) and FY25 ($7.7B) ; mgmt keeps fundraising guidance for [--] ($7B) & [--] ($8B) and calls out 'conservatism' as momentum is good - AUM up 26% YoY FEAUM up 24% FRR up 13% FRE up 17% & FRE/share up 15% https://t.co/YCpWxFHl1Z @IlyaKan2004 @SnowCapResearch Some follow on from Q4 & FY25 earnings: - Fundraising was very good in Q4 ($1.7B) and FY25 ($7.7B) ; mgmt keeps fundraising guidance for [--] ($7B) & [--] ($8B) and calls out 'conservatism' as momentum is good - AUM up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019041604166983986)  2026-02-04T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Solis (now under $PAX Patria Investments) ended the year with $28B BRL in AUM ($5.3B at today's FX) and aims to more than double by [----] to $60B BRL ($11.4B) Assuming figures ($3.5B FEAUM) from Patria M&A announcement are also more or less YE25 figures could assume FEAUM/AUM is 66% so holding this constant Solis FEAUM by YE28 could be $7.5B. Also assuming same fee rate (60 bps) and FRE margin (45%) this could be runrate FRE by YE28 of $20m I (wrongfully) said they paid $70m for Solis but they paid $70m for 51% of Solis and are to pay another tranche in [----] (if they want to go through with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2019667295681794393)  2026-02-06T06:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In light of the Euronet $EEFT Q4 & FY25 ER tomorrow: "Zaggle has entered into an agreement with Euronet to launch co-branded prepaid card solutions for corporates." Euronet has existing partnerships with all of the companies on this November [----] list of 'Strategic Zaggle Alliances' (AU Small Finance Bank IDFC Standered Chartered & MasterCard) for either REN (which is now debit prepaid & credit) ATM management or realtime XBP Euronet is indispensable if you want to launch a card https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021522941469470856 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021522941469470856"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2021522941469470856)  2026-02-11T09:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not directly related to Solis but Patria Investments $PAX "Prepares Next Vintage of Latin America Private Credit Strategy to Capture Structural Scarcity in Corporate Lending" http://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-prepares-next-vintage-latin-america-private-credit http://ir.patria.com/news-releases/news-release-details/patria-prepares-next-vintage-latin-america-private-credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2021535280952643784)  2026-02-11T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"6.9% dilution at a time when shares trade at 10% FCF yield is no bueno $VER $VRV Average daily volume is 700k shares (in Sweden) so would take a while for new investors to get 13m new shares but still don't like this at all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1935229285813354761)  2025-06-18T06:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not a chart guy but buy at [---] not the worst idea in the world $VER $VRV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1939947609155686781)  2025-07-01T07:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VER $VRV Verve Group still nr [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS and Android in Q225 Also nr [--] in Germany France Spain the Netherlands the UK Canada Singapore India Mexico & Australia Nr [--] in China & Brazil $MGNI & $PUBM pretty high on CTV in US & Canada (& Verve also growing in CTV) $VER $VRV Verve Group still nr [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS & now also on Google Play Store Also nr [--] in Mexico & Australia Top [--] in China & Singapore Top [--] in Germany & Canada Top [--] in France & Japan Top [--] in Brazil Spain & UK On iOS & Google Play Store Expect a very good Q1 https://t.co/BhGiKD4AuH $VER $VRV Verve Group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1960331387442954384)  2025-08-26T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VINP Investor Day today Preceded by the acquisition of Verde Asset Management (50% now 50% in 5Y) 16B BRL in AUM ($3B) so quite big and also accretive on FRE/share Lots of dilution last few years (Compass and now Verde) (I dont own $VINP as I put it in $PAX earlier this year) https://s3.amazonaws.com/b2icontent.irpass.cc/2819/rl158231.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975470405189030351 https://s3.amazonaws.com/b2icontent.irpass.cc/2819/rl158231.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975470405189030351"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1975470405189030351)  2025-10-07T07:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VINP [----] ID presentation is online They are keeping (upping from R$550) the FRE target but lose the FRE & DE per share targets which is the biggest crime any company can do Either way take 66m shares outstanding (flat incl. Verde) gives you R$9/share in FRE (1.7 USD/share)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1975560615789010960)  2025-10-07T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Targeting 35% private assets by [----]. Good news for $PAX & $VINP as it's probably still 2% in LatAm right now Idea is that alternative investments will get above 1% of AUM (as it is in US EU) and that $PAX & $VINP have some local advantages compared to their bigger peers https://t.co/FubTYYQMN7 https://t.co/LsWdV20H0T Idea is that alternative investments will get above 1% of AUM (as it is in US EU) and that $PAX & $VINP have some local advantages compared to their bigger peers https://t.co/FubTYYQMN7 https://t.co/LsWdV20H0T"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1980987843720904707)  2025-10-22T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I am getting interested in Vinci Compass $VINP again FRE margins already at 31-32% excl. Verde and about 35% incl. Verde Still not entirely clear how 'the AUM to FEAUM' is tracking and net inflows (proxy for organic fundraising) isn't stellar $VINP [----] ID presentation is online They are keeping (upping from R$550) the FRE target but lose the FRE & DE per share targets which is the biggest crime any company can do Either way take 66m shares outstanding (flat incl. Verde) gives you R$9/share in FRE (1.7 USD/share) https://t.co/i4nagQc7rj $VINP [----] ID presentation is online They are keeping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1989338298343678062)  2025-11-14T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Enjoyed the [----] Citizens Financial Services Conference with $ARES & $OWL Stark difference in how the two companies communicate Very interested in how/where we will end up with private credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1991131821837336992)  2025-11-19T13:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Actually pretty decent interview of Verve Group $VER $VRV Platform unification was a big shitshow and communication thereabout was even worse (but efficiency gains are visible now) One can take this further that the business is good but mgmt is really worst in class in evert aspect Ended the interview that there are 'regular' inquiries into a takeover but at current valuation it doesn't make sense (obviously). One can wonder what mgmt will do about this In this interview we sit down with Verve Groups CEO Remco Westermann reflecting on [----] and the path forward. We have gathered all of your"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2001241623854727188)  2025-12-17T10:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Another sign in the right direction for Verve Group $VER $VRV 'SSP Rankings: 'Direct' Access to Top [---] Mobile Apps' by Pixalate: 93% on Android & 97% on iOS in November [--] (left) vs. 83% on android & 93% on IOS in July [--] (right)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2010609914104959163)  2026-01-12T07:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Edenred $EDEN $EDEN.PA & Pluxee $PLX $PLX.PA share price back at or even below when Federal Court of So Paulo (temporarily) suspended the cap on MDR (For Pluxee specifically: said they can (modestly) grow [----] EBITDA even in the worst case Brazil outcome)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2014675740575285256)  2026-01-23T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Noalgos I previously held Vinci & Patria. Didn't seem necessary to hold both and Patria seems to be executing a bit better so only have Patria now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2021856326268150028)  2026-02-12T07:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"And yet people are bearish private credit managers like $APO $ARES $OWL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1999095706297258346)  2025-12-11T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone interested in 19% ROIC $FOUR The Greystone Capital Q4 letter is available on the site. Included in the Appendix is a writeup on $FOUR our newest investment and a business solving what appears to be an intractable problem. https://t.co/0kU9EgbsjR The Greystone Capital Q4 letter is available on the site. Included in the Appendix is a writeup on $FOUR our newest investment and a business solving what appears to be an intractable problem. https://t.co/0kU9EgbsjR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2016129900122341579)  2026-01-27T12:43Z [----] followers, 24.9K engagements


"Partly from the sideline but very much looking forward to $APO $ARES & $OWL earnings calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2018953913442185687)  2026-02-04T07:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jimmcmullenkc1 @P14Capital The company trades at 6x P/E. PE firm or competitor would probably pay more than 6x an then you have a fast(er) growing company which should/could rerate to 12x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2022367163927953688)  2026-02-13T17:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ADYEN $ADYEY $ADYEN.AS is a great business if not one of the best there is. But the investment thesis cannot be that 100x 80x or even 60x FCF multiple is justified can it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1701517235729182910)  2023-09-12T08:44Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements


"These exercises are usually useless but not bad to see $FOUR double the 'rule of 40' in '24 & '25 compared to software and fintech "peers""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1802299163448586373)  2024-06-16T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR down 6% in sympathy with $V $MA is one of the dumbest things Ive seen today (second dumbest is neutral position on V MA)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1811094847446540777)  2024-07-10T17:47Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements


"Everyone out there spending hours to find deep value illiquid micro caps for a [--] bps outperformance while $MA still puts out 15% EPS CAGR targets $MA new targets through [----] https://t.co/AJM9MjVYTr $MA new targets through [----] https://t.co/AJM9MjVYTr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856763040965767644)  2024-11-13T18:16Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"Looking forward to $APO buying $HSBC private credit unit in 2Y because they messed up Market top confirmed: HSBC enters private credit. https://t.co/HiJSGpheMb Market top confirmed: HSBC enters private credit. https://t.co/HiJSGpheMb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910774462053576957)  2025-04-11T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VER $VRV Verve Group still nr [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS & now also on Google Play Store Also nr [--] in Mexico & Australia Top [--] in China & Singapore Top [--] in Germany & Canada Top [--] in France & Japan Top [--] in Brazil Spain & UK On iOS & Google Play Store Expect a very good Q1 result and FY25 guidance $VER Verve Group still nr. [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS and increased market share to 44% Similar story in Japan China UK Brazil . on iOS and Google Play Store https://t.co/cKG2ZdjidA $VER Verve Group still nr. [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS and increased market share to 44% Similar story in Japan China UK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924928111524905245)  2025-05-20T20:39Z [----] followers, 31.8K engagements


"A lot of information in this answer by Shift4 CEO Taylor Lauber $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953819362873270528)  2025-08-08T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Funny that analysts still have $FOUR [----] EBITDA growth at 15% (while they re-confirmed 30% CAGR through 2027) and have $ADYEN [----] EBITDA growth at 30% while [----] (& 2026) is going to be barely above 20% Adyen is a great company maybe not 3x Shift4 valuation though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955917881675325740)  2025-08-14T09:02Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements


"@kilroy_jay @Aggie_CIO Whats runrate revenue/EBITDA when BK is complete"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2022016165128913279)  2026-02-12T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KairosPraxis Terminal P/E range 20x to 40x And the CAGR on 20x is [---] Youre writing a bear case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2022423508882796693)  2026-02-13T21:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$KKR call & outlook is great at $8-9 Adj. NI or DE/share by [----] (at $74/share today) Clearly venturing in the direction of Apollo/Athene Makes me wonder why one would prefer $KKR over (market leader) $APO when outdated goals (right) guide to $10-11 DE/share (at $93/share today)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1730201789188690381)  2023-11-30T12:27Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements


"Difficult fundraising environment Not if you're $BAM $BN $30B raised for BIF V 40% above BIF IV 20% above target 40% already deployed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1730577326646128725)  2023-12-01T13:19Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements


"$PIF.TO $RAMPF with big step-up in EBITDA/CF thanks to expansion of San Jacinto Mgmt wants to double EBITDA to $100m by [----] At 6.5% divy and with inflation linked contracts very hard to get 10% CAGR on this one even without any growth At 20% CF yield should buy back more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1761026470833483895)  2024-02-23T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FOUR added 25k POS systems in [----] while $TOST added 27k POS locations $FOUR will install another 40k in [----] while $TOST will be happy to have another 27k POS is not a significant part of Shift4 (yet) while it is very much for Toast $FOUR is $6B MC $TOST is $12B MC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762457504158466392)  2024-02-27T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Who keeps dumping $PIF.TO $RAMPF shares to a 7.5% dividend yield 25% CF yield (limited maintenance CAPEX) and a [---] EV/EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1778794396470620455)  2024-04-12T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FOUR Shift4 with another M&A: Vectron Systems $V3S [--] revenue: 37m EBITDA: 3M [--] guidance: 43m (17% YoY) & 5.1m (70% YoY) Active in [--] countries 30k locations Price around 15x EV/EBITDA Would expect Shift4 to be able to double/triple EBITDA % over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797368087555002471)  2024-06-02T20:42Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements


"Should be we impressed or disappointed $EVO $EVVTY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1800798276737712466)  2024-06-12T07:52Z [----] followers, 35.7K engagements


"What is wrong with Hugo Boss $BOSS Growing EBIT 20% in '23 10% in '24 & 30% in '25 500m in FCF in '24 & '25 On '24 financials it's at 8.5x EV/EBIT & 10x P/E with continued growth in '25 How do you lose money here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810601451342696945)  2024-07-09T09:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$EVO $EVVTY LTM EPS [----] and OCF/share [----] at normalised growth 15%. Buying back shares spending some money on M&A. Solidifying #1 market position Cant ask more than they are doing Evolution $EVO Q2 '24 results: Revenue +15.3% *Live Casino +18% *RNG +1.4% EBITDA +10.9% EBITDA-Margin of 68% (vs. 70.7%) EPS +3.2% New share buyback program Entered into an agreement to acquire Galaxy Gaming https://t.co/mMZMSEAqIS Evolution $EVO Q2 '24 results: Revenue +15.3% *Live Casino +18% *RNG +1.4% EBITDA +10.9% EBITDA-Margin of 68% (vs. 70.7%) EPS +3.2% New share buyback program Entered into an agreement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1814291013634068639)  2024-07-19T13:27Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements


"Some smal(ler) cap companies that I don't own are reasonably cheap and have proven to grow revenue/EPS over time (although choppy): $PAGS $STNE $RAMPF $PIF.TO $MDA.TO $MDALF $MATR.TO $MTTRF $ACIC $IGIC $RCMT $VTSI $KFS Give me you worst so that I don't make mistakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1829122693926359185)  2024-08-29T11:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$APO is at 8x '29 (e) EPS (15% CAGR) which is not bad however $PAX & $VINP are at 8x '25 (e) EPS and should grow EPS double digits with some upside through M&A (both acquirer and acquiree I guess) $ARES at 13x '28 (e) EPS growing 20% in a league of its own Any opinions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1841107349823521249)  2024-10-01T13:26Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements


"$1m confessions revenue per game powered by Shift4 $FOUR went from [--] stadium to 75% market share in the US in 4Y. Massive opportunity to cross-sell ticketing in this $100B market. Just starting in the +$50B European market By partnering with Shift4 @HuskerFootball has increased their concessions revenue more than 200% over last season from $375k/game to over $900k/game 📈 Thanks to more efficient and streamlined operations @UNLincoln is able to serve fans faster than ever at Memorial By partnering with Shift4 @HuskerFootball has increased their concessions revenue more than 200% over last"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1843355287752978889)  2024-10-07T18:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Step 1: Evolution AB grows 15% Step 2: Buy $EVO stock Step 3: $EVO stock tanks Step 4: cry and wait for next ER to repeat Looking forward to it 📊 Historical market reaction to Evolution's $EVO earnings report What results do you anticipate this quarter The stock seems undervalued suggesting that market expectations are relatively low Q3 [--] -0.3% 🟠 Q4 [--] +10.9% 🟢 Q1 [--] -1.3% 🔴 Q2 [--] +0.1% 🟠 Q3 [--] -6.1% 🔴 Q4 [--] 📊 Historical market reaction to Evolution's $EVO earnings report What results do you anticipate this quarter The stock seems undervalued suggesting that market expectations are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848704208884662558)  2024-10-22T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR seems to be going after $PAR (enterprise restaurant chains) with Skytab Kiosk We're cooking up something big that will help restaurants level up their customer service and increase sales. Stay tuned for more info on Oct [--] 👀 https://t.co/64nsQufzr1 We're cooking up something big that will help restaurants level up their customer service and increase sales. Stay tuned for more info on Oct [--] 👀 https://t.co/64nsQufzr1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848773898088632385)  2024-10-22T17:10Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"$PIF.TO $RAMPF buys a [--] MW wind farm in Puerto Rico for $20m (controlling interest so guessing or waiting for Q324 for %) Just for fun: should make around [--] MWh/y at $100 PPA (just guessing) which is $6m/y at a $20m purchase price (a lot of incorrect assumptions but fun nonetheless) Another way of looking at it: wind turbine could cost up to $1.3m/MW & Polaris paid $770k/MW (again no 100% interest) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851302944752406790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851302944752406790"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1851302944752406790)  2024-10-29T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In the last [--] days $WISE $WISE.L was granted direct access to the (instant) payment system of Brazil Japan & The Philippines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1853386059024855076)  2024-11-04T10:37Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements


"I have often thought about buying $PIF.TO $RAMPF (or even $IHS or $HTWS for that matter) Apart from the regulatory and other risks of investing in developing economies there is no exit strategy apart from theyre worth a multitude of the current MSD multiple when taken private https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856765877691011129 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856765877691011129"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1856765877691011129)  2024-11-13T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Doubled my $EVO position now 3% of PF 3.7% dividend yield (& buying back shares at 12x NTM P/E) never thought it would swing this far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1871110968731746491)  2024-12-23T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Abysmal YTD performance. Annualise this and Im broke"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1874719756240245096)  2025-01-02T07:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jeremymstamper Per capita"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1876330461003403732)  2025-01-06T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone follow Intellego Technologies $INT.ST $7RW is at 10x [----] EV/EBIT and aims to increase EBIT sixfold over the next 3-5Y (stock is already up 120% LTM) @RyanReeves_ holds it I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877275670503444514)  2025-01-09T08:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@johndory1914 To be fair: the coffee is [---] and the baguette is 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879655183304867869)  2025-01-15T22:21Z [----] followers, 177.5K engagements


"$VER Verve Group still nr. [--] mobile SSP in US on iOS and increased market share to 44% Similar story in Japan China UK Brazil . on iOS and Google Play Store"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1882476241871364487)  2025-01-23T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Me getting ready to like all the $EVO double digit growth and 500m buybacks posts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1884868892012491150)  2025-01-30T07:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The US economy will break at some point but not today (I like those restaurant numbers) $FOUR $TOST $PAR $MA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1884963190552850777)  2025-01-30T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'm reading a lot of (well-written) deep dives on (objectively) quality companies where the base case is a 30x P/FCF exit multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1887070017935622458)  2025-02-05T09:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$EVO back to being down mid single digits on a daily basis as it should be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887820516511076827)  2025-02-07T11:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"They didn't have to do $PYPL dirty like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892218726054867111)  2025-02-19T14:24Z [----] followers, 39K engagements


"I'm assuming it doesn't happen often a company trading at low double digit EV/multiple (with good cash conversion) puts out a bear case guidance of high teens EBITDA CAGR and be down 20% the next [--] days $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892872543171747938)  2025-02-21T09:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR paid 17.5x FY1 EV/EBITDA back in [----] for Finaro EBITDA doubled and gave Shift4 a better overall offering to cross-sell payments How some analysts & investors think it won't work out with Givex Vectron & Global Blue is beyond me This is what they do Excellent piece: https://businessofpayments.com/2025/02/23/what-we-learned-at-the-shift4-investor-day/ https://businessofpayments.com/2025/02/23/what-we-learned-at-the-shift4-investor-day/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894087650786906398)  2025-02-24T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Repeat after me: 70x LTM EV/EBITDA ex-SBC is not a buy The Trade Desk is now down 47% after missing Q4 earnings. Trading near its lowest EV/OCF multiple in [--] years. Time to take a look $TTD https://t.co/qYfH0bY45m The Trade Desk is now down 47% after missing Q4 earnings. Trading near its lowest EV/OCF multiple in [--] years. Time to take a look $TTD https://t.co/qYfH0bY45m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894281595973947514)  2025-02-25T07:01Z [----] followers, 40.7K engagements


"Crap idea that might work out: buy $PIF.TO $RAMPF at [----] USD/share wait 5Y until EBITDA doubles to $100m. Brookfield buys it at [---] EV/EBITDA and you go home with a 30% IRR (incl. dividends)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1894381001112949018)  2025-02-25T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Putting some cash to work (which means markets will keep on declining) Buying: $EVO: Evolution valuation is ridiculous double digit EPS growth for the foreseeable future (Asia is a risk) $FOUR: Shift4's new 3Y 25% EBITDA CAGR guidance is far above my expectations. Can't help but add although it's already way too big of a position $PAX: Patria's new 3Y 15% FRE CAGR guidance is in line with my expectations. At 8.5x [----] P/FRE is a no-brainer given their history of continuous fundraising & M&A capabilities $CRNT: this is pure gambling. Is at 6x Operating Income with earnings guided to be 50%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894732311930773987)  2025-02-26T12:52Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements


"$FOUR by @scuttleblurb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901639435835318395)  2025-03-17T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The amount of mismanaged POS companies Shift4 can acquire at a CAC payback period under [--] months is near endless $FOUR $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902820457197277494)  2025-03-20T20:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR 37% drawdown -27% YTD At 7x [----] FCF if you believe mgmt guidance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907845023367889365)  2025-04-03T17:17Z [----] followers, 19.7K engagements


"$WISE $WISE.L growing high teens for the foreseeable future in an infinite TAM while reported PBT way higher than underlying PBT Can do worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908085944986522061)  2025-04-04T09:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Note to self: holding (what you believe to be) undervalued companies does not in any way protect them from falling when the markets drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1908164236657734134)  2025-04-04T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Could go long $DBRG here on the sole thesis that some asset manager is willing to pay more than $1.2B for $40B of FEEUM (for fun: 0.9% fee rate at 40% margin is $144M of FRE)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909689125718131028)  2025-04-08T19:25Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"Risk in any investment but mid teens P/E for high teens EPS growth in established businesses usually not the worst idea $APO $CG $KKR $PAX $TPG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911693727921287475)  2025-04-14T08:11Z [----] followers, 11K engagements


"$IBKR trades to 30x earnings with interest rates obviously coming down (& continuing to do so) and now that it's back at 20x earnings nobody wants it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912522911610450205)  2025-04-16T15:06Z [----] followers, 24.6K engagements


"@TheStalwart Youre comparing short term price action with business performance for likes or do you really believe that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1914403139173933205)  2025-04-21T19:37Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements


"@JohnHuber72 Alternative theory: companies don't trade at 45x EV/EBITDA forever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1914578427505500557)  2025-04-22T07:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@junkbondinvest People pay to be exit liquidity cant make this up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1915859564831900029)  2025-04-25T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Slap an 80x multiple on it no questions asked $TTD back-of-the-envelope valuation check: 🔹 [----] FCF/share = $1.75 🔹 [----] FCF Yield = 1.19% (201624 median) 🔹 Implied [----] Price = $147 Current price = $53.87 📈 Thats a 24% annualized return through [----] if it re-rates to historical norms. https://t.co/8uTqA9Et49 $TTD back-of-the-envelope valuation check: 🔹 [----] FCF/share = $1.75 🔹 [----] FCF Yield = 1.19% (201624 median) 🔹 Implied [----] Price = $147 Current price = $53.87 📈 Thats a 24% annualized return through [----] if it re-rates to historical norms. https://t.co/8uTqA9Et49"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915868423252222444)  2025-04-25T20:40Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements


"I can stop reading here tbh $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917176097046749618)  2025-04-29T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR Shift4 business is humming along quite nicely (as expected) What's exceptional is that management is so on top of capital allocation: spent $63m on share repurchases in Q1 when average price was 100$. Spent another $85m in April alone when average price was $80 Bought 2% of shares outstanding in [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917564609679986777)  2025-04-30T13:00Z [----] followers, 37.3K engagements


"$PAX Q125 results AUM up 43% YoY 9% QoQ FEAUM up 46% YoY 6% QoQ FRE/share up 16% YoY (21% without the dilution which will affect per share growth for another [--] Qs) FRE margin 55% (will go towards 60% again by EoY) Net Accrued Performance Fees of $2.33/share (stock is $10.5) Net Debt down from $190m to $143m in one Q (they make $200m/y) (Organic) fundraising very strong Don't know what the market is expecting here but these guys are executing (If there's one point of criticism it's the lack of share repurchases at these prices (12% yield). They might be holding some cash for M&A who knows)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919299288477106511)  2025-05-05T07:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DBRG up 25% or so since but if $TPG can pay $660m (+ earnouts) for $7.7B in AUM someone should still be willing to pay more than $1.65B for $100B in AUM & $37B in FEEUM Could go long $DBRG here on the sole thesis that some asset manager is willing to pay more than $1.2B for $40B of FEEUM (for fun: 0.9% fee rate at 40% margin is $144M of FRE) Could go long $DBRG here on the sole thesis that some asset manager is willing to pay more than $1.2B for $40B of FEEUM (for fun: 0.9% fee rate at 40% margin is $144M of FRE)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919871291927970061)  2025-05-06T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Slap a 15x Sales multiple on it What is this 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920170947782312184)  2025-05-07T17:36Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements


"@HighyieldHarry I think basic affordability is a bit better in Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1921868680129921307)  2025-05-12T10:02Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements


"$FOUR down 3% on the news that $FI Clover is losing market share to you guessed it Shift4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923053622524248108)  2025-05-15T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Shift4 increasingly getting included in top [--] lists $FOUR A long way to go JPM: Top [--] merchant acquirers control 67% of V and MA payment volume and we expect this consolidation to continue $FISV $GPN $FOUR https://t.co/4oTJ6N3yo3 JPM: Top [--] merchant acquirers control 67% of V and MA payment volume and we expect this consolidation to continue $FISV $GPN $FOUR https://t.co/4oTJ6N3yo3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923629696396284296)  2025-05-17T06:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Had to read the date twice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1924810622237048915)  2025-05-20T12:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Verve Group $VER $VRV [----] revenue of 437m (36% YoY) 50% GM [----] customers $100k Trades at 9x LTM FCF Not apples to apples but definitely one expensive apple and one cheap apple Self-serve TV advertising platform MNTN went public today at a $1.6B market cap. Some notes: [----] revenue of $225.6 M (+28% y/y) 70% gross margins 0% operating margins [----] customers with ACVs of $95k 92% of customers had never advertised on TV before expanding Self-serve TV advertising platform MNTN went public today at a $1.6B market cap. Some notes: [----] revenue of $225.6 M (+28% y/y) 70% gross margins 0% operating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925951660779594081)  2025-05-23T16:27Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements


"Verve Group $VER $VRV Every media buyer should have a strategy for buying and measuring IOS. To ignore the overwhelming majority of Apple users is a massive miss. Ask anyone on the supply side there is almost zero competition for those auctions. Every media buyer should have a strategy for buying and measuring IOS. To ignore the overwhelming majority of Apple users is a massive miss. Ask anyone on the supply side there is almost zero competition for those auctions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926684218131681467)  2025-05-25T16:58Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements


"Imagine a company trading at 6x [----] EV/EBITDA putting out 25% CAGR for the next 5Y and being down 13% on that guidance Verve Group should repurchase every share they can get their hands on $VER $VRV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927683931597316461)  2025-05-28T11:10Z [----] followers, 45.4K engagements


"Looking forward to hearing all the useless questions about the class B & C shares & who will be Shift4 CEO and absolutely zero questions about $FOUR business itself at the D.A. Davidson Consumer & Tech Conference next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929496062563078546)  2025-06-02T11:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Does this Coad guy know theres a $1.4T cross-sell funnel that can grow E2E Volume double digits for the next decade without any single M&A $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929499501342912947)  2025-06-02T11:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Or dont buy companies at a gazillion times earnings Since $DLO went public: Stock Price: -68% Gross Profit:+427% Revenue: +647% When a stock price diverges from fundamentals there is an opportunity https://t.co/HShyl70CvA Since $DLO went public: Stock Price: -68% Gross Profit:+427% Revenue: +647% When a stock price diverges from fundamentals there is an opportunity https://t.co/HShyl70CvA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1931010908538486902)  2025-06-06T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I thank Jefferies for their valuable input on $UNH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932701157933121590)  2025-06-11T07:27Z [----] followers, 86.6K engagements


"$LVMH $MC 10Y CAGR cut in half from 21% to 11% Thanks for playing 1/ LVMH Moet Hennessy $LVMH $MC One of the undisputed kings of luxury selling goods across wines & spirits fashion & leather goods perfumes & cosmetics watches & jewellery and retail. Market Cap: 380b 10Y Return CAGR: 21.5% 10Y EPS CAGR: 16.1% PE: 23.1x EV/EBIT: 16.9x https://t.co/85PIP6jBDx 1/ LVMH Moet Hennessy $LVMH $MC One of the undisputed kings of luxury selling goods across wines & spirits fashion & leather goods perfumes & cosmetics watches & jewellery and retail. Market Cap: 380b 10Y Return CAGR: 21.5% 10Y EPS CAGR:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935344369394909496)  2025-06-18T14:30Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements


"The reaction when Shift4 acquires another company usually is that existing shareholders got screwed $FOUR must be doing something right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937408550759702825)  2025-06-24T07:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some people will probably still find a reason this is bearish $GOOG $GOOGL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938715462709445067)  2025-06-27T21:46Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements


"$FOUR 🤝 $GB https://investors.shift4.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/267/shift4-completes-acquisition-of-global-blue https://investors.shift4.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/267/shift4-completes-acquisition-of-global-blue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940731945291600246)  2025-07-03T11:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Theres this company that processes about 50% of all payments in Las Vegas $CZR & $MGM Vegas numbers for April & May look good Slot Handles & Table Drop are all up YoY. Should be a good Q2 barring no hold issues for the Vegas leaders. MGM reports on 30th CZR on the 29th. Let's see what they got "We expect that for us [----] will be a record year $CZR & $MGM Vegas numbers for April & May look good Slot Handles & Table Drop are all up YoY. Should be a good Q2 barring no hold issues for the Vegas leaders. MGM reports on 30th CZR on the 29th. Let's see what they got "We expect that for us [----] will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941834526612697151)  2025-07-06T12:20Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements


"Everyone a fan of pricing power until they're not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1944859735582498923)  2025-07-14T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"People dont own enough of the Alts part [--] $BAM $BN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945079010016301137)  2025-07-15T11:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Funny how some people say to focus on ROIC and are negative on any amount of Capex at the same time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948282649144893795)  2025-07-24T07:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Intellego Technologies up 222% YTD $INT.ST $7RW Zero shares bought 👍 Make sure to follow me for more tips on how to completely miss multibaggers in a time span of [--] months Anyone follow Intellego Technologies $INT.ST $7RW is at 10x [----] EV/EBIT and aims to increase EBIT sixfold over the next 3-5Y (stock is already up 120% LTM) @RyanReeves_ holds it I think https://t.co/MNn8uABQNb Anyone follow Intellego Technologies $INT.ST $7RW is at 10x [----] EV/EBIT and aims to increase EBIT sixfold over the next 3-5Y (stock is already up 120% LTM) @RyanReeves_ holds it I think https://t.co/MNn8uABQNb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948740089699319896)  2025-07-25T13:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Secure Waste Infrastructure $SES.TO $SECYF still one of the best opportunities out there: [----] outlook for CA$ 525M & 54% FCF conversion Bought back 30% of shares in the last 2.5Y (these effects last forever) Expects [----] to be another year of 'strong growth' Waste companies don't trade at 8.4x EV/EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950513713754075540)  2025-07-30T11:08Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements


"Maybe not the best time to buy shares (market around ATH) but I can't help myself to get more $PAX $FOUR $ (finally) start $EEFT $PAX is 10x FRE with at 15% FRE CAGR for the next 3-5Y $EEFT is 10x earnings with a 10-15% EPS CAGR for the foreseeable future. I think Euronet is rather misunderstood maybe the Investor Day in the Fall will help clear some things up $FOUR is optically more expensive but grows so fast & analysts will should start adding $GB after ER https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1951282586195730483 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1951282586195730483"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951282586195730483)  2025-08-01T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I have no intent going into pharma companies but Organon & Co $OGN looks cheap Huge debt (& $500m in yearly interest payments) but the they make $2B in EBITDA and analysts expect that to be rather stable over the next 3Y Analysts have it at $4 EPS in [----] stock is $10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1952305441599537521)  2025-08-04T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Growing AUM at +20% YoY at this scale is just impressive $APO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952679705213059356)  2025-08-05T10:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CROX probably still on it's way to do $12 EPS in [----] while buying back +20% of its market cap at +15% yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953453741153169587)  2025-08-07T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOUR being down 20% after mentioning on last ER they are tracking towards the higher end of 20-30% 3Y CAGR and now being up 2% because space and crypto are mentioned in the same press release is why markets are in fact not efficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954901929164763622)  2025-08-11T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Taylor Lauber from Shift4 $FOUR https://podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/leaders-in-payments/id1493191701i=1000722601073 https://podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/leaders-in-payments/id1493191701i=1000722601073"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957762436666204524)  2025-08-19T11:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"After a 50% drawdown $DUOL entering bargain territory of 75x FY25 EV/EBITDA ex-SBC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1963944450524140017)  2025-09-05T12:36Z [----] followers, 36.1K engagements


"Good idea to focus on FCF/share For context: $1B runrate FCF by end of [----] translates to roughly $11/share $FOUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966051690244702367)  2025-09-11T08:10Z [----] followers, 27.9K engagements


"$TOST $FOUR $XYZ $FI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970427148671287636)  2025-09-23T09:56Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements


"@BoringBiz_ His reaction is even better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/1972729736725246160)  2025-09-29T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"70m purchase price for 140k merchants puts the upfront CAC per merchant at [---]. Add another [----] to convert the merchant from gateway to E2E so [----] CAC (while competitors spend 10x that on 'organic' S&M) Textbook Shift4 indeed $FOUR https://x.com/RahulSetty_/status/1803055060517376335 $FOUR notes Vectren deal allows them to capture customers at 1/6th the cost of what $TOST does. Strategic M&A (with acquisitions fully integrated) paired with dramatically lower CAC extracts more value from these assets resulting in profitable growth. https://t.co/jNKD65fP6q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980957262027104466)  2025-10-22T11:19Z [----] followers, 19.2K engagements


"Funny that there are some people following $FOUR (& the payments space) since IPO in [----] and know that Shift4 has been profitably taking TPV share for the past (almost) 30Y and then you have people who think Shift4 should be down in sympathy with legacy players (of which they have been taking share) $FI reported 5% merchant revenue growth at decreasing margins. $FOUR reports 29% revenue growth at increasing margins (Q225) $FOUR is up 100% since [----] which is beyond good and the best thing: its (arguably) severely undervalued given the forward 30% CAGR (e) For some reason the share price is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983525681376977279)  2025-10-29T13:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$AXON investors are too funny blaming the 20% PM drop on 'slowing growth' or 'lower earnings guidance' Lol it trades at 20x revenue Adj. EBITDA ex-SBC margin is (pay attention now) 3%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986073059963421033)  2025-11-05T14:08Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements


"And we have a gateway volume number: $90B Just for fun: Shift4 can convert 15% (low point batting average as mentioned in [----] ID) to E2E at [--] bps and 50% (incremental) EBITDA margin = $40m (purchase price of 70m) This is fun $FOUR 70m purchase price for 140k merchants puts the upfront CAC per merchant at [---]. Add another [----] to convert the merchant from gateway to E2E so [----] CAC (while competitors spend 10x that on 'organic' S&M) Textbook Shift4 indeed $FOUR https://t.co/15Bw7gb51q 70m purchase price for 140k merchants puts the upfront CAC per merchant at [---]. Add another [----] to convert"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986416327209136558)  2025-11-06T12:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone interested in Intermap Technologies Corporation $IPM.TO $ITMSF Some disappointing news (contract delays) which should be delivered in 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TomSmith839/status/2004525332863619108)  2025-12-26T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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