# ![@TheMichaelEvery Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2512524721.png) @TheMichaelEvery Michael Every

Michael Every posts on X about china, trade, tariffs, iran the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2512524721/interactions)
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- [--] Year [---------] +682%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2512524721/posts_active)
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### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2512524721/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +2.60%
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### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2512524721/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  51.82% [finance](/list/finance)  27.74% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  5.84% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2.92% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.19% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.46% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  1.46% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.46% [gaming](/list/gaming)  0.73% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.73%

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china) #4708, [trade](/topic/trade) 13.87%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #1525, [iran](/topic/iran) #3466, [in the](/topic/in-the) 8.03%, [russia](/topic/russia) #3784, [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) 6.57%, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.11%, [oil](/topic/oil) 5.11%, [rare](/topic/rare) 5.11%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@eric_j_brooks](/creator/undefined) [@only9built](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@max_aragorn](/creator/undefined) [@foreignpolicy](/creator/undefined) [@raphfel](/creator/undefined) [@jimmyolsenblues](/creator/undefined) [@jasonblundell76](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@michaelxpettis](/creator/undefined) [@aeberman12](/creator/undefined) [@gfxfts](/creator/undefined) [@ttmygh](/creator/undefined) [@fortifyculture](/creator/undefined) [@ulrichspeck](/creator/undefined) [@glandsbergis](/creator/undefined) [@sariarhohavren](/creator/undefined) [@vtchakarova](/creator/undefined) [@stefanauerhku](/creator/undefined) [@matthewkroenig](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The U.S. is abandoning Asia and its allies. But expect Australia to be pledging to spend 5% of GDP on defence very soon. Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. will deploy up to [--] nuclear-powered submarines to the naval base HMAS Stirling near Perth on a rotational basis from [----] as part of the AUKUS security partnership (Australia-UK-US) under Pillar [--]. The deployment is s meant to deter https://t.co/X5SwYw1yKr Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. will deploy up to [--] nuclear-powered submarines to the naval base HMAS Stirling near Perth on a rotational basis from [----] as part of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020704885197640146)  2026-02-09T03:42Z 23.6K followers, 36K engagements


"@ulrichspeck So the logical middle ground = the U.S.-Europe bloc plus allies. But Europe frames this as U.S. vs EU not the actual U.S. vs China with Europe (and Russia) secondary arenas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021855106845876723)  2026-02-12T07:53Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics As Trump and Xi Get Set to Talk Trade Asia Worries About Impact on Its Security (WSJ) as Some Asian countries fear a grand bargain with Xi on economic issues could sideline security; Rubio Says US Wont Change Taiwan Policy for China Deal (Bloomberg); Trump hopes China will help push Russia towards Ukraine peace talks (BBC); China upgraded missiles using UAE technology Biden spies said (FT) - Intelligence sparked intense debate in Washington about its relationship with Gulf state; Trump threatens Venezuela militarily action escalates Colombia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/1982263670362263786)  2025-10-26T01:51Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"I am shocked shocked by this headline and there isnt a soul alive today who could have seen it coming. Not one. Honest. I also havent heard anyone say Rate cuts for a while if you overlook the recent news about Fannie and Freddie"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2009554024136319145)  2026-01-09T09:13Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"I fail to see how people dont see this - but many dont. @GLandsbergis @ForeignPolicy Its not a retreat; its just the beginning of a very long global power rivalry. Stage [--] - secure the whole Western Hemisphere and deny China and Russia as much of access as possible - political economic and security-related. @GLandsbergis @ForeignPolicy Its not a retreat; its just the beginning of a very long global power rivalry. Stage [--] - secure the whole Western Hemisphere and deny China and Russia as much of access as possible - political economic and security-related"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2011730393846988883)  2026-01-15T09:21Z 23.3K followers, 20.7K engagements


"Part of Reverse perestroika. @SantiagoAuFund @Raphfel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2013632823819747722)  2026-01-20T15:20Z 23.3K followers, 16.1K engagements


"This is a safe haven in the first month of [----] as we stand on the brink of Middle East war again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2017171590908195225)  2026-01-30T09:42Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from the UK. International law meant to limit effects of war at breaking point study finds (Guardian); End of an era: half-century of nuclear arms control comes to a close (FT); Irans Top Leader Warns of Regional War as Trump Renews Demands (Bloomberg); US military action in Iran risks igniting global nuclear cascade (Defense News); U.S. tells Iran it is ready to meet and negotiate a deal (Axios); Before Any Strike on Iran U.S. Needs to Bolster Air Defenses in Mideast (WSJ); Iran declares European armies 'terrorist groups' in tit-for-tat move (Euractiv); Germanys far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2018211604609872344)  2026-02-02T06:35Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from the UK. Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia (FT) - European forces would be dispatched and backed by US military in case of repeated Russian violations; Ukraine grid on brink of collapse despite surge in EU support (Euractiv); Europe begins its slow retreat from US dependence (Politico) - The EU aims to reduce reliance on America in areas such as technology energy payments and defense. That will take some time; EU wants defence data secured without US tech (Euractiv); As Europe rearms capitals and industry struggle to coordinate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2018577585479745838)  2026-02-03T06:49Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements


"What part of this says Strategic Autonomy The U.S. already struck many critical minerals deals: Europe hasnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2018698723266527649)  2026-02-03T14:50Z 22.9K followers, 17.8K engagements


"From the Arc de Trump to Trump Homes in [--] hours. Another quiet day this time in architecture and housing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2018733439261020279)  2026-02-03T17:08Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@SariArhoHavren If it did do they then tariff the wind turbines they MUST use but dont have domestically to meet their net zero targets If yes the targets are harder to meet. If no then. this is to what end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2018771493866328276)  2026-02-03T19:40Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from Asia. US-Iran talks back on track after Trump warns Khamenei should be very worried (ToI); US shoots down Iranian drone approaching aircraft carrier official says (Reuters); Netanyahu urges US envoy to be skeptical of Iran in revived nuclear talks (Reuters); The steel porcupine: How Ukraine plans to defend itself after the war (Politico) - Ukraines Plan B is to be able to protect itself if allied security guarantees prove worthless; EU countries seal deal on [--] billion loan for Ukraine funded through joint debt (Euronews); Minister defends long delays to UK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019213003913412683)  2026-02-05T00:54Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Their key weapon as they see it is to mine Hormuz pushing oil to $200 until the U.S. backs off. Theres a lot of bluff and counter bluff going on: but on top of the huge volatility elsewhere watch this space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019369403780067400)  2026-02-05T11:15Z 23.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Note not NORTH Korea. South Korea is seeking closer cooperation with China on critical mineral supply chains its trade ministry said as Seoul unveiled plans to secure stable supplies of rare earths needed for cutting-edge technologies https://t.co/SNmF0ud1Hk South Korea is seeking closer cooperation with China on critical mineral supply chains its trade ministry said as Seoul unveiled plans to secure stable supplies of rare earths needed for cutting-edge technologies https://t.co/SNmF0ud1Hk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019581990270648586)  2026-02-06T01:20Z 23.1K followers, [----] engagements


"So market forces seem to kick in as soon as Japan might have other options Whocouldanooed And what happens if those options arent taken by anyone and we go back to a China monopoly Anyone CHINA RESUMES RARE EARTH EXPORTS TO JAPAN China has authorized the export of several rare earths to Japan after tightening controls in January according to trade sources. While not a full embargo the move appears aimed at maintaining supply stability and discouraging Japan CHINA RESUMES RARE EARTH EXPORTS TO JAPAN China has authorized the export of several rare earths to Japan after tightening controls in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019749601444552894)  2026-02-06T12:26Z 23.3K followers, 12.9K engagements


"I wonder who this might be referring to Any wild guesses Did the EU-India FTA have the same clause"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019946900087271602)  2026-02-07T01:30Z 23.4K followers, 20.8K engagements


"https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/united-states-india-joint-statement/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/united-states-india-joint-statement/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019946903891497105)  2026-02-07T01:30Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil is considering pushing for a partial trade agreement between the Mercosur bloc and China for the first time senior Brazilian government officials said in what would be a major shift for Latin America's largest economy. Brazil has long vetoed formal negotiations with Brazil is considering pushing for a partial trade agreement between the Mercosur bloc and China for the first time senior Brazilian government officials said in what would be a major shift for Latin America's largest economy. Brazil has long vetoed formal negotiations with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020079920593138113)  2026-02-07T10:19Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@vtchakarova So Europe gets the US-led China decoupling it didnt want via the backdoor having thought an FTA with India allowed it a new world of options away from the U.S"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020111039849812459)  2026-02-07T12:22Z 23K followers, [----] engagements


"Its almost like there is a strategy or something like that. Whocouldanooed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020707638984745107)  2026-02-09T03:53Z 23.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Cuba is running out of oil. The island warned airlines that they wouldn't be able to re-fuel at its [--] major airports from Tuesday for at least one month. The Communist government has closed international hotels to save fuel too. In the past Cuba relied on Venezuelan oil. Cuba is running out of oil. The island warned airlines that they wouldn't be able to re-fuel at its [--] major airports from Tuesday for at least one month. The Communist government has closed international hotels to save fuel too. In the past Cuba relied on Venezuelan oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020889127542288602)  2026-02-09T15:54Z 23.4K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from Asia. Iran ready to dilute highly enriched uranium if all sanctions lifted: Nuclear chief (AFP); Netanyahu rushes to White House to stop Iran deal (Telegraph) - Israel demands that any agreement reached includes limitations on Tehrans ballistic missile programme; US issues fresh guidance to ships transiting Strait of Hormuz as Iran tensions simmer (Reuters); Indonesian troops said to be preparing to deploy to southern Gaza in coming weeks (ToI); Muslim countries EU join condemnations of Israeli moves deepening West Bank control (ToI); Eritrea rejects Addis Ababa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021024160735211895)  2026-02-10T00:51Z 23.4K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from Asia. Trump-Netanyahu meeting ends with no agreement on Iran strategy (FT) - US president backs talks with Tehran while building up military presence in the Middle East; Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal (FT) - Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May [--] or risk losing security guarantees; Zelensky won't announce elections on war anniversary amid talks of US-driven timeline source says (Kyiv Independent); Russia effectively dismisses US-Ukraine peace framework says it contradicts 'real' American"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021746393749369059)  2026-02-12T00:41Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Even though a Reverse Nixon or Noxin starts with No and has Xi in the middle perhaps it isnt the automatic Nyet it once looked() Speeches in a High Castle in Europe may have to change mid-stream; so may some very strongly-held market views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021965508439159137)  2026-02-12T15:11Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"China hates this of course. So does Europe. The U.S. loves it. But there is also likely Russian trolling here given Europe is meeting in a castle today while the Munich Security Conference starts soon. Great way to scupper any transatlantic bridge-building"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021968494238281742)  2026-02-12T15:23Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"The author STILL yet to publish his promised how to make the world system work is forced to quote Stefan Zweig not @stefanauer_hku because he has to note that neither realpolitik nor realeconomik back his desired goal. Theres no reality here without vast rapid changes. https://t.co/crkF4SkqGS The author STILL yet to publish his promised how to make the world system work is forced to quote Stefan Zweig not @stefanauer_hku because he has to note that neither realpolitik nor realeconomik back his desired goal. Theres no reality here without vast rapid changes. https://t.co/crkF4SkqGS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2016419293337157858)  2026-01-28T07:53Z 23.5K followers, [----] engagements


"CHINA BANS UNAPPROVED YUAN-LINKED STABLECOIN ISSUANCE OVERSEAS EURO ZONE FINANCE MINISTERS TO DISCUSS ISSUANCE OF EURO-DENOMINATED STABLECOINS MORE JOINT EU DEBT AMONG WAYS TO BOOST ROLE OF EURO CURRENCY -DOCUMENT BANKS SHOULD EMBRACE NOT RESIST STABLECOINS AND DIGITAL ASSETS. - SENATOR LUMMIS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019789050639753672 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019789050639753672"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2019789050639753672)  2026-02-06T15:03Z 23.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Another middle power slowly freezing out China even as others think its an alternative to the U.S. Another big Whocouldanooed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020671629118910864)  2026-02-09T01:30Z 23.5K followers, 28.8K engagements


"The geostrategic thinkers who said the U.S. would give up Eurasia because LatAm have never played or WON at Risk. "A Sphere for Me but Not for Thee." @MatthewKroenig makes a cogent argument in @ForeignPolicy that the effort needed for the "Trump Corollary" in the Western Hemisphere does not preclude the ability to deter and even deny great powers in other regions.👇 https://t.co/xSeIAqioZV "A Sphere for Me but Not for Thee." @MatthewKroenig makes a cogent argument in @ForeignPolicy that the effort needed for the "Trump Corollary" in the Western Hemisphere does not preclude the ability to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020710026357436699)  2026-02-09T04:03Z 23.5K followers, 10.8K engagements


"@jimmyolsenblues @Convertbond @Coffee__Capital @SantiagoAuFund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021222775801712741)  2026-02-10T14:00Z 23.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Mmmmm-ahan: Isnt this a (checks notes) American company making this anti-ship weapon as China builds ships 10(0)x faster than the U.S. And wont there be new weapons to take out these weapons also produced by American companies The China vs US production imbalance remains the key issue not Mahan. and just like that [---] years of Mahan Doctrine (control naval chokepoints and you control the world) gets turned on its head (naval chokepoints become kill zones for naval assets). Investor consensus has only just begun discounting the macro implications. and just like that [---] years of Mahan Doctrine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021238838493053012)  2026-02-10T15:04Z 23.5K followers, 12K engagements


"Guns not butter and drone training for 75% of schools vs a guns-and-butter-and-nice-schools liberal democracy that thinks rearmament is just about pushing GDP up a bit and stock markets a lot. Wars are won with bullets not profits. You'll have read reports on how badly Russia's economy is doing. Yet they now make *7m shells a year*. Estonia's excellent foreign intel service says: "Given this production growth and substantial imports Russia is highly likely to be able to replenish part of its strategic https://t.co/2YFy7Rypno You'll have read reports on how badly Russia's economy is doing. Yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021241979699421555)  2026-02-10T15:16Z 23.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@JasonBlundell76 @FirstSquawk @LukeGromen The and are poised to extend the trade truce they negotiated in South Korea by up to a year when President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet in Beijing in early April according to several people familiar with the discussions. Nothing burger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021742230235689352)  2026-02-12T00:24Z 23.5K followers, [--] engagements


"Or logically you massively raise tariffs and deregulate everything internally - the neo-mercantilist model Trump echoes. But who wants to talk first principles an what they imply when we can have endless discussions that avoid them 😉 Somethings got to give. We cant have it all and a hard core priorisation will take place very soon due to the urgency of the situation. Somethings got to give. We cant have it all and a hard core priorisation will take place very soon due to the urgency of the situation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2020442956914929669)  2026-02-08T10:21Z 23.5K followers, [----] engagements


"How does this sit with invading 1) ❌ Trump wanted to spook it into spending more on a front it wasnt focusing on (& wants more control there for its own defence) 2) ✅ The ambassador is lying & this is a plot to invade as gives [--] key NATO command roles to US AMBASSADOR TO NATO WHITAKER: WE WANT EUROPE TO TAKE OVER THE CONVENTIONAL DEFENSE OF THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT US AMBASSADOR TO NATO WHITAKER: WE WANT EUROPE TO TAKE OVER THE CONVENTIONAL DEFENSE OF THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021237384164118796)  2026-02-10T14:58Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"The latest update on US Grand Macro Strategy as is.and as it may be next. https://media.rabobank.com/m/6df1934ac302225/original/US-Grand-Macro-Strategy-The-Trump-Plan.pdfutm_medium=email&utm_term=N%2FA&utm_source=dynamics-rr&utm_campaign=1#msdynmkt_trackingcontext=120bc91e-4338-43ac-89e3-61a394300100 https://media.rabobank.com/m/6df1934ac302225/original/US-Grand-Macro-Strategy-The-Trump-Plan.pdfutm_medium=email&utm_term=N%2FA&utm_source=dynamics-rr&utm_campaign=1#msdynmkt_trackingcontext=120bc91e-4338-43ac-89e3-61a394300100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/1965969433949778216)  2025-09-11T02:43Z 23.6K followers, 205.5K engagements


"Old America *did*: Trump echoes many pre-WW2 presidents. Not his style but Hamiltonian neo-mercantilism Monroe Doctrine Manifest Destiny arguing with a Europe wanting to do Ostpolitik etc. Even freedom fries. Old patterns reemerge to shock people who didnt do history. After Trump the old America could make a comeback @gideonrachman writes in his latest worth-reading column in FT. The gathering backlash against Trump is steadily increasing the chance that his presidency will ultimately be seen as a grotesque aberration rather than a https://t.co/GKxPKlbYpG After Trump the old America could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021138057307865300)  2026-02-10T08:23Z 23.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"I would think Mexico is still sleeping *relatively* well seeing the below news: But Canada.  .thats until/unless the U.S. gets to set the external tariff for Fortress America as part of its neomercantilist economic statecraft / Donroe Doctrine / Reverse Perestroika. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021562197974069629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021562197974069629"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021562197974069629)  2026-02-11T12:29Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"2026 day [--] Good morning from Asia. Turkey could join nuclear arms race if Iran acquires bomb Hakan Fidan warns (JPost); US will 'do something very tough' if Iran negotiations fail Trump warns (N12); Iran preparing for possible US strike experts (JPost); Trump says he opposes Israeli annexation steps in West Bank (Axios); Vance Acknowledges Armenian Genocide Then Deletes Post Igniting Outrage (WSJ); Emmanuel Macron declares a European state of emergency (Economist) - He urges the EU to move fast or be swept aside; Russian army casualties in Ukraine surge (FT); Russias shell output soars as it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021391603802452191)  2026-02-11T01:11Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Yes it can if it doesnt ignore the U.S. This is not to advocate it or to ignore the this would needle Labour voters. Yet there are logical options - and permanent British strategic promiscuity is not tenable as one of them. As such this is another unserious FT op-ed. The paper sadly seems to specialise in them nowadays"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021522212843290889)  2026-02-11T09:50Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Ive spoken about how US economic statecraft can use legacy financial fartcraft to transform itself for a world of Warcraft. The below suggests it can happen in reverse I am a senior vice president at a $68.7 billion gaming company. Activision-Blizzard. We have a 30-year-old franchise. Warcraft. Millions of players. A subscription model that prints $15 a month per user. A cash shop on top of the subscription. Paid expansions on top of the I am a senior vice president at a $68.7 billion gaming company. Activision-Blizzard. We have a 30-year-old franchise. Warcraft. Millions of players. A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2021960983309431048)  2026-02-12T14:53Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"We are seeing Wall Street pick off sectors it sees being hit by Claude. But what about Wall Street itself For a sector that lives and breathes Rate cuts it argues for a lower cost of capital. because therell be no research sales trading deal-making or back-office costs 😵💫 Musings of the Day 2/12/26: I've gone down deep into the OpenClaw/Claude Code rabbit hole over the last week which is why I've not been posting much. I would urge everyone to read the following treatise. It is long but worth the read. At first I thought it was hyperbolic Musings of the Day 2/12/26: I've gone down deep into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2022126116476268551)  2026-02-13T01:50Z 23.6K followers, 22.8K engagements


"Those are valid points but the functions that can be stripped out of banks by AI directly & indirectly already suggest revolutionary downsizing in the back and even front office. In terms of research humans will need to do better work that adds value. Just saying CPI was X or higher than consensus or A Bloomberg (AI) headline said Y wont cut it for long I suspect. Original research will still need humans. But as in other areas it looks like fewer of them and as mahouts on AI elephants not as intellectual hewers of wood. Will that rot institutional intelligence Probably yes. But since when did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/2022218490976121256)  2026-02-13T07:57Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"🎯 This is at heart arguably about trying to change the global trading system to shift the US from consumer back to producer for national security reasons; while retaining U.S. and dollar privilege under a new more 19th century mercantilist model. Markets and not only stocks mostly dont get that or the full consequences of either success or failure even if they are starting to see the resulting chaos / volatility. The stock market underestimates the scale and scope of Trump's tariffs argues @josephwang Here are Joseph Wang's in-depth thoughts on tariffs: Apple 🔊https://t.co/lCXC8yyGym"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1885704258206781796)  2025-02-01T14:58Z 23.6K followers, 51.4K engagements


"Europes bill to rebuild and defend Ukraine and rearm itself is going to be astronomical. 🚨 #BREAKING: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth officially rules out making Ukraine a member of NATO - CNN Hegseth also announced the security of Ukraine and Europe would no longer be the top priority of the U.S. focusing more on defending the homeland and deterring China. https://t.co/iCE8wCYm80 🚨 #BREAKING: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth officially rules out making Ukraine a member of NATO - CNN Hegseth also announced the security of Ukraine and Europe would no longer be the top priority of the U.S."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889691321280921712)  2025-02-12T15:01Z 23.6K followers, 71.3K engagements


"When people asked me What is Putin giving up my first answer was Trump will ask for Iran. Trump needs it to make IMEC   work and vis--vis Gaza/Houthis. If Russia isnt fighting Ukraine for a while it means it doesnt need Iranian kamikaze drones as urgently. Doesnt mean Trump will get it but the cards are at least on the table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896891846355472759)  2025-03-04T11:53Z 23.6K followers, 21.2K engagements


"Read this. And read it again. And send it to someone in markets who you know will go out of their way not to read it. The global financial system is quietly fracturing along geopolitical lines with European officials now gaming out scenarios where Fed dollar swap lines become restricted. Note that EU banks remain critically dependent (17% of funding is in dollars) with no viable alternative to The global financial system is quietly fracturing along geopolitical lines with European officials now gaming out scenarios where Fed dollar swap lines become restricted. Note that EU banks remain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1904357369326530983)  2025-03-25T02:19Z 23.6K followers, 27.3K engagements


"Thing is that right now most European defences are confetti paper too. One ECB member is talking about the need for Eurobonds again today as a start - alongside a unified Euro military plan for economies of scale and ease of actual operation and a populace ready to fight in it and then many trillions to build it. And meanwhile who has all the aircraft carriers and control of maritime choke points European trade and its fossil fuel imports rely on Not Europe. Play realpolitik games win realpolitik prizes. Plot twist: EU response to "We'll force EU to term out US debt to pay for US defense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907460254998442015)  2025-04-02T15:48Z 23.6K followers, 31.1K engagements


"2025 day [--] Good morning from Asia. All the focus today is on the reaction to the Trump tariffs; Markets plunged stocks down bond yields down commodities down oil down a lot and the dollar down. The least hysterical take was meltdown; Some point out the tariffs are a body blow to factory Asia and to globalisation as weve known it; Others point out inflation will rise short term although if oil keeps falling that will offset a lot; Many flag a near-term risk of recession. Yet a collapse in bond yields helps narrow the U.S. fiscal deficit and refinance debts just as a major offsetting tax cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907944671424500192)  2025-04-03T23:53Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Yes the tariff math was wrong. But its right in showing Ricardian free-trade theory says there should be no bilateral trade deficits at all and just the composition of the basket of goods traded should shift with comparative advantage. Anyone ever read Ricardo Port and cloth Being specialised in and swapped With no surplus or deficit Of course in the real world it doesnt work like this - and Ricardo explained why: his theory assumes immobile global capital. Which we dont have. With mobile capital as Ricardo argued everyone will produce in Portugal not England. So free trade is not a win-win"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909219441373860145)  2025-04-07T12:19Z 23.6K followers, 50.5K engagements


"No it doesnt. And the people who wrote the below understand zero about how the global system functions. But hey great click bait nonsense. When Europe & Japan run the same vast trade deficits as the U.S. and so deindustrialise and (checks notes) also remilitarise in tandem somehow to be able to impose a new global reserve currency and asset class on others *then* we might have this conversation. Until then its a pipe dream for people who didnt see any of this coming. Which is so many people in markets its untrue despite it being visible from space to some of us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909503657084912109)  2025-04-08T07:08Z 23.6K followers, 65.5K engagements


"2025 day [--] Good morning from Australia. Markets tumble again as the U.S. presses ahead with 104% tariffs on China (which ignores the 25% already in place and the risks of 25-75% on top for allegations of buying Venezuelan and Russian oil); CNH was trading at [----] at time of writing a very important signal with bond yields rising the U.S. 10-year is now up 43bp from its recent low and equities selling off along with commodities and crude - bigly again; One can join those troubling dots lots of ways but; Its not just that geopolitics is driving markets but geopolitics may be literally *in*"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909728901028626454)  2025-04-08T22:03Z 23.6K followers, 11K engagements


"In which case isnt it vital to have your own production and supply chains even if at higher cost at first The logic here flows both ways not just because markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909877671687078052)  2025-04-09T07:54Z 23.6K followers, 18.1K engagements


"How long until Trump says China is buying Venezuelan and Russian oil and adds another 75% taking us to 199% including the original 25% CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY: TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL TARIFFS OF 84% ON U.S. GOODS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909926276846207471)  2025-04-09T11:08Z 23.6K followers, 24.8K engagements


"Im shocked shocked that this was the strategy all along. Nobody could have seen it coming. Like nobody. Ever. Even Superman with X-Ray vision. US Treasury Secretary Bessent sees a deal with allies then they can approach China as a group. US Treasury Secretary Bessent sees a deal with allies then they can approach China as a group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909954833798582738)  2025-04-09T13:01Z 23.6K followers, 32.5K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Australia. Well the 100-day mark (here) is certainly a landmark and I get my first good nights sleep in a while and wake up to see: The trade war shifts again as the U.S. pauses most tariffs for [--] days but raises those to China to 125% which is imposing 84% on the U.S. A 10% universal reciprocal tariff for others stays along with the 25% sectoral tariffs; Its now openly the case that the U.S. is isolating China from everyone else. Pick a side time. The 90-day deadline to agree to that is [--] July; Suggestions are the U.S. may also taper its upcoming port fees but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910088239962378536)  2025-04-09T21:51Z 23.6K followers, 10.7K engagements


"The EU seeing the below warning and reportedly then negotiating lower tariffs for Chinese EVs as a riposte to the U.S. about to do a slew of deals with other allies. the U.S. on which Europe still relies for energy security and swaplines: Hold my beer & pass me the knife. Washington has criticised Spain's outreach to China with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying cosying up to Beijing is like 'cutting your own throat.' #EuropeNews https://t.co/vmyOHKNW7G Washington has criticised Spain's outreach to China with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying cosying up to Beijing is like 'cutting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910501493100396881)  2025-04-11T01:13Z 23.6K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Nice defence umbrella/offshore Aussie bank borrowing in U.S. dollars for your mortgage market youve got there. Pity if anything were to happen to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910560183820177441)  2025-04-11T05:06Z 23.6K followers, 19.8K engagements


"Well this is one way for Greenland to show just how European it is rather than North American: this is called playing poker with a two and a three and hoping to bluff. Greenland's foreign minister has said it is seeking deeper cooperation with China and potentially a free trade agreement according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua: https://t.co/rE2I5GpSVD Greenland's foreign minister has said it is seeking deeper cooperation with China and potentially a free trade agreement according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua: https://t.co/rE2I5GpSVD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912111192803561751)  2025-04-15T11:50Z 23.6K followers, 28.5K engagements


"A gift or a grift And wait for the Trump walk back in [--] [--] [--]. ()"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914721089051345066)  2025-04-22T16:40Z 23.6K followers, 38.4K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. U.S. President Trump said he doesnt intend to fire Fed Chair Powell which he cant do anyway. And hes much more useful to have around to blame for anything that goes wrong; Elon Musk floated that hes about to step back from DOGE; Nouriel Roubini posted a defence of U.S. CEA head Miran which claims there are no plans for U.S. capital controls Russia proposed to freeze the invasion of Ukraine along current lines as part of a peace deal. Europe remains concerned that could lead to further concessions from the U.S. that would weaken Ukraine going forwards and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914855223644033443)  2025-04-23T01:33Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Hows that We dont need the U.S./We are going to hold up the rules-based order going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915620908510921127)  2025-04-25T04:16Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"We have a huge deficit with China and we have a moderate surplus with the US. Maybe something is wrong here Mr Thaksin said. So were going to change our policy because of the tariffs. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3011260/thaksin-signals-thai-policy-reset-to-cut-deal-with-us-on-tariffs https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3011260/thaksin-signals-thai-policy-reset-to-cut-deal-with-us-on-tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915743370892415185)  2025-04-25T12:23Z 23.6K followers, 80.3K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. A week after Spain saw 100% renewables energy power for the first time its grid blacked out along with Portugals. Total chaos and a state of emergency ensued. A never-before tried renewables-based grid black start had restored around 3/4 of power at time of writing; The messages are: 1) this is what a cyberattack could look like - and we arent ready; and 2) you cant rely just on renewables without back-up batteries - so further massive investment is needed. or a return to fossil fuels/nuclear. or risks of blackouts; The U.S. is close to walking away from a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917054455805317560)  2025-04-29T03:12Z 23.6K followers, 12.6K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. President Trump lost a second election if you read local takes this time Australias Labor Party winning a landslide on anti-Trump sentiment and the leader of the opposition again losing his seat; yet Both Australia and Canada still have Trump to deal with and hard decisions to make: and recall less than a year ago the U.K. Labour Party won an historic victory but last weeks elections saw it take a record low share of the vote. All is in flux; A senior U.S. military figure states the U.S. would win a Pacific War against China today but soon may not be able"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1918856432679829995)  2025-05-04T02:33Z 23.6K followers, 20.2K engagements


"We are all listening to this US - UK trade deal and trying to work out what it does and doesnt say. The details are still loose or TBA but the key points being released make it clear its literally what Ive been describing for nearly a decade: This is about. measuring who makes how much of what MATTERS in national security terms such as steel and Rolls Royce engines and locking them into the U.S. system not anybody elses. Its not about GDP. Its about what GDP is FOR and WHO that GDP is for. The geopolitical angle is primary here and those who dont only look at spreadsheets and laugh at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920499846458585186)  2025-05-08T15:23Z 23.6K followers, 39.9K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. White smoke We have a new *American* Pope the first Leo XIV; and A first U.S. trade deal with the U.K. Those who like FTAs say it isnt 3000-pages and legally binding. Those who understand geopolitics know Tehran Yalta and Potsdam werent long on technocrats either; The U.S. gets lower tariffs and can push special interests like beef and ethanol and the U.K. will buy $10bn of Boeing jets. The U.K. is still going to face 10% on most exports - for the closest U.S. ally; a [------] car quota at 10% not 25%; and steel & aluminium (& pharma) & engines for (fighter)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920650575190057281)  2025-05-09T01:22Z 23.6K followers, 13.2K engagements


"Im shocked. Are you shocked Some people are apparently shocked. Which is shocking. Some people are also in denial. Including Europe which now sees what it will have to agree to get a U.S. trade deal but cant and most of Asia which can agree but doesnt want to. Is anyone shocked about that Or about what the ultimate outcome will likely be in both cases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920832321588261032)  2025-05-09T13:24Z 23.6K followers, 69K engagements


"BREAKING: AN HOUR AFTER DRINKING LARGE CUPS OF COFFEE U.S. TRADE TALKS DELEGATION SEEN LEAVING MEETING ROOM FOR UNEXPLAINED REASON ANONYMOUS SOURCES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921198930253029682)  2025-05-10T13:41Z 23.6K followers, 27.1K engagements


"This is not a deal or a trade war peace. This is a 90-day ceasefire to rearm. Which is also what Ukraine and Russia both want. Anyone rational will fill their boots and prepare for round [--]. And move supply chains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921826024490213482)  2025-05-12T07:13Z 23.6K followers, 26.5K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from the U.K. The U.S. agreed a huge arms energy both fossil and green broader investment architecture *and AI* deal with the Saudis. Why do you think all the U.S. tech CEOs were there The Saudis/GCC are siding with the U.S. not China; and as stated this is not just about energy important as that is; as Trump removed sanctions on Syria which is aimed at rebuilding it with a Saudi umbrella to keep Iran (and China) out; and Israel looks to have killed the Hamas military wing leader. Some see that as designed to scupper peace negotiations: others see it as a removing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922485247306039460)  2025-05-14T02:52Z 23.6K followers, 12.2K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from the U.K. In geoeconomics the U.S. Middle East roadshow saw more major deals Qatar pledging to buy up to [---] Boeings jets as well as giving one. Europe is overlooking this emerging intersection of energy defence AI and perhaps global financial architecture ironically perhaps because they lack power in all four; In geopolitics Iranian officials say Tehran will agree to a deal that swaps the end of sanctions for caps on its uranium enrichment a commitment to never making nuclear weapons getting rid of highly-enriched uranium and allowing international inspectors to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922899533597466627)  2025-05-15T06:19Z 23.6K followers, 34.3K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. Iran threatened to move its nuclear material to secret sites which it previously didnt have recall under threat of Israel attack as Axios reports Israeli intel has shifted from believing a nuclear deal was close to thinking talks could soon break down. There are bluffs and double bluffs here but the market is focusing on OPEC+ planned production increases even as global demand remains weak; German troops moved to be stationed in Estonia to guard it from Russia the first such step since WW2; The EU placed tariffs on Russian fertilisers in a move opposed by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925786806626160835)  2025-05-23T05:32Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"True: but where was the FT when this was obvious to others and they were still selling free trade as the only way. And I mean both many years and a few hours ago. 1/7 Very good FT article on how China achieved its dominance in manufacturing along with the cost both to China and to its trading partners: "Using a unique combination of industrial policy subsidies and other state-support coupled with private sector. https://t.co/BGWvpkfFjq 1/7 Very good FT article on how China achieved its dominance in manufacturing along with the cost both to China and to its trading partners: "Using a unique"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927672130008997987)  2025-05-28T10:23Z 23.6K followers, 10.7K engagements


"Expect much more of this ahead even if those doing it dont yet fully grasp what GDP is for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927991784749040054)  2025-05-29T07:33Z 23.6K followers, 34.6K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. So a Musk-Trump breakup occurred. A budget bill push-back disappointment past issues over a thwarted China briefing the end of the EV mandate and NASA saw Musks government contracts threatened with cancellation; Musk state Trump owes him the presidency should be impeached and is on the Epstein list; Steve Bannon say Musks drug use & immigration status need to be investigated and him deported; and Musk decommission the Dragon spacecraft reversed after someone on X with less than [---] followers stepped in and said the spat was silly()threaten Trump only has"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930833920796344359)  2025-06-06T03:47Z 23.6K followers, 32.7K engagements


"Its always a real pleasure talking to @adamtaggart - we went to some interesting places again including a new level in Star Wars trivia As the world continues to abandon globalization for mercantilism/nationalism more shocks to the global economy lie ahead that the markets are completely unprepared for warns geopolitical expert @TheMichaelEvery This one's an important one folks https://t.co/S4hVffBgMV https://t.co/OGYSv1Vwfg As the world continues to abandon globalization for mercantilism/nationalism more shocks to the global economy lie ahead that the markets are completely unprepared for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931731864450175443)  2025-06-08T15:15Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. Israel continues to strike Iranian nuclear & military sites & regime figures and will do so for as long as necessary. It also stated it will strike Irans oil & gas if its civilians are targeted in response a red line which has now been crossed with the first Israeli casualty; as Iran stated it will strike anyone who helps defend Israel meaning the potential for an expanded regional conflict and/or terror attacks abroad; and that it will continue to develop its now-shattered() nuclear programme; This suggests this war has no easy endpoint without further"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933716288528134501)  2025-06-14T02:41Z 23.6K followers, 11.1K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. Israel-Iran war continues the former establishing aerial superiority the latter achieving a few hits on civilian sites that will likely ensure Israel escalates on the targets it takes out; Energy infrastructure has been hit for the first time but the biggest & easiest target of Kharg Island hasnt been touched (yet). More likely Israel is now taking out domestic fuel depots refineries & distribution to destabilise the economy & regime further; Israeli PM Netanyahu stated: What we are about to do in Iran over the coming days will be orders of magnitude more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934075294216053245)  2025-06-15T02:27Z 23.6K followers, 13K engagements


"The Economist will be fighting on this hill without ammunition a military any tech or cars or planes or green goods etc. to the bitter end of everyone elses jobs it seems"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934093664038666422)  2025-06-15T03:40Z 23.6K followers, 20K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. Israel & Iran continue to trade blows in a lopsided manner. Indeed an Israeli official just told the WSJ that the underground Natanz nuclear facility might have imploded under attack; Reportedly Syrias new President Ahmed al-Sharaa has announced Syrian airspace is now open to intercept Iranian drones and missiles - which Israel was likely doing anyway but if confirmed points to the political earthquakes underway in the region which this war will potentially only amplify; Yet despite total tactical Israeli air superiority there are strategic questions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934424480228765872)  2025-06-16T01:35Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics President Trump declared we have total control over Iranian airspace; we know where Supreme Leader Kahemeni is bunkering down but are not going to kill him (yet); and for Irans UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER Is the U.S. going to enter the war as reports are of possible attacks on U.S. bases ahead At the very least no Trump didnt leave the G7 to discuss a ceasefire; Anonymous claimed a false flag attack on U.S. soil is looming perpetrated by what is clearly implied as Israel to drag it into a Middle East war. The war part looks obvious; Parts of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935150745764118978)  2025-06-18T01:41Z 23.6K followers, [----] engagements


"You really couldnt make this up It would be hilarious if it wasnt so serious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935702855798919291)  2025-06-19T14:14Z 23.6K followers, 71.9K engagements


"If they were having High Tea wearing Regency period costume it wouldnt have been more out of date than this naive geopolitical view already was [--] hours ago. But when you lack all the hammers nothing looks like a nail. We Europeans are engaging in dialogue with Iran to de-escalate the situation. The only possible way forward is dialogue. https://t.co/JjRA6E1ZV3 We Europeans are engaging in dialogue with Iran to de-escalate the situation. The only possible way forward is dialogue. https://t.co/JjRA6E1ZV3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936736319092437009)  2025-06-22T10:41Z 23.6K followers, 13.7K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from the air en route to New Zealand. While the U.S. may now prefer to reopen negotiations with Iran the latter is in no mood to do so; Irans parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. strike on its nuclear programme with the final decision resting with their national security council; This would be unprecedented; economically ruinous for them; and for the world; almost impossible for them to do as is; would ensure almost everyone who can would confront them to reopen the Strait; but its likely to see war insurance risk soar and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936885128808276097)  2025-06-22T20:32Z 23.6K followers, 31.4K engagements


"Because Marxism has a track record of producing thriving economies and isnt populist Asking for a friend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941401357396877326)  2025-07-05T07:38Z 23.6K followers, 19.9K engagements


"And keep China in presumably. Or kick them both out and leave who trading with whom exactly Politico is following the FT down some baffling intellectual cul-de-sacs because reasons. Its all very League of Nations. an analogy which fits worryingly well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942124972442567066)  2025-07-07T07:34Z 23.6K followers, 27.7K engagements


"That people are only seeing this now and some still arent is testimony to mankinds staggering powers of imagination (and self-interest). For decades American companies saw China as the ultimate prize. But fundamentally they appear to have misunderstood the transaction. They thought they were hiring a contractor; Beijing knew it was running an apprenticeship. https://t.co/LkNQCQc9GE https://t.co/k7hOD3ecUu For decades American companies saw China as the ultimate prize. But fundamentally they appear to have misunderstood the transaction. They thought they were hiring a contractor; Beijing knew"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942902862725701930)  2025-07-09T11:05Z 23.6K followers, 15.2K engagements


"Im shocked shocked() that exporters will cut prices rather than pass them on as in some economic models. 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943151246808092759)  2025-07-10T03:32Z 23.6K followers, 10.5K engagements


"🎯 Some see the game and some only see the pieces. The 30% tariff hike comes right ahead of EU-China summit. Just saying The 30% tariff hike comes right ahead of EU-China summit. Just saying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944054857260052690)  2025-07-12T15:22Z 23.6K followers, 38.5K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics the U.S. wants to know what allies would do in case of a war with China. Thats more awkward than AUKUS for an Aussie PM currently in Beijing trying to sell stuff and for Japan. But from the U.S. perspective is it unreasonable Plans need to be made and if you arent in then youre out: Ive warned of that for months - and that flows from defence to the economy and markets; On who with whom a report from the French parliament says it should stop being a U.S. vassal and be a Chinese vassal() I joke but so is few noting what that choice would mean"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944219567905288471)  2025-07-13T02:17Z 23.6K followers, 10.5K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Australia. In geopolitics President Trump agreed to send Ukraine not just defensive Patriot missiles but possibly offensive ones that can even strike Moscow - and paid for by the EU/NATO; Trump also threatened Russia with severe oil tariffs including secondary in [--] days if it doesnt change track. oil tumbled which hurts Russia; Italy and Greece sound the alarm over Libya. But allies arent rushing to help. (Politico) as Rome and Athens have identified Turkish and Russian involvement in a growing security threat from North Africa. Problems everywhere for the EU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944886554184548769)  2025-07-14T22:27Z 23.6K followers, 10.4K engagements


"Under a realist statecraft policy friends/allies must do what helps your grand macro strategy not theirs or others. Otherwise what is friendship/alliance for exactly Here its a joint focus on China now via Russia with minimum necessary realpolitik compromises not maximum ones to please all friends/allies. If the real power dynamics were reversed India (and all others) would be making the U.S. change its behaviour to suit their grand macro strategy. But they cant and it can for now. Is it nice No: no more than it was when the U.S. made NATO agree to spend 5% of GDP on defence and the EU to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950570128803827921)  2025-07-30T14:52Z 23.6K followers, 51.6K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from the U.K. McKinsey says AI is existential to it and not in a good way; as Axios reports on blue-collar revenge in the jobs market; and The Telegraph on why working-class rage is surging in Britain; Now wait until the middle classes lose their well-paid jobs to AI while the working class does relatively better and see what happens to the current western political system: historically when the middle-class is radicalised through fear of loss of status things can really change. And not for the better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951903620275826895)  2025-08-03T07:11Z 23.6K followers, 13.9K engagements


"They arent wrong. India responds to US & EU: The very nations criticizing us for Russian oil imports are themselves trading in Russian gas uranium chemicals and machinery. This is not compulsion. Its strategy. India will do what it takes to protect its national interests and economic security. https://t.co/dhnjXOi1Wh India responds to US & EU: The very nations criticizing us for Russian oil imports are themselves trading in Russian gas uranium chemicals and machinery. This is not compulsion. Its strategy. India will do what it takes to protect its national interests and economic security."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952434470818062800)  2025-08-04T18:20Z 23.6K followers, 15.1K engagements


"But free trade If you cant see the Great Game now you shouldnt be playing. Sadly some arent. China warns foreign companies against stockpiling rare earths https://t.co/OBiLcz4Dfz China warns foreign companies against stockpiling rare earths https://t.co/OBiLcz4Dfz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956209086212792395)  2025-08-15T04:19Z 23.6K followers, 26.3K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. President Trump failed to get a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire but hes pushing for a full peace deal as soon as Monday in principle. European leaders and Ukraine will be in D.C. to thrash out (slash sign on to) Trumps proposal. He wouldnt be calling them there without a plan; According to most good reports this will include Ukraine ceding the land Russia has taken - with debate over whether it gets to take all of Donetsk oblast which is only controls some of now; Thats a bitter pill for Ukraine for which it is demanding security guarantees. Some reports have it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956919291703701637)  2025-08-17T03:21Z 23.6K followers, 44.7K engagements


"Strategic autonomy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957684282383888401)  2025-08-19T06:01Z 23.6K followers, 27.2K engagements


"For those thinking recent Europe headlines were bad:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960584157895254073)  2025-08-27T06:04Z 23.6K followers, 48.7K engagements


"From tariffs to state stakes in firms and from export controls to price controls; and where next The once unthinkable says the FT. Ive said Think it since [----] and spelled out a shift from economic policy to economic statecraft. That logic says we still have a long way to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961364389036281866)  2025-08-29T09:44Z 23.6K followers, 20.6K engagements


"Remind me which economy Ray has been bullish on for so long while he says a lack of independent central banking large fiscal deficits and the state taking shares in key firms are bad things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962741295656640649)  2025-09-02T04:56Z 23.6K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Still not peak [----] I feel but we may have a top [--] candidate here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963042836468924802)  2025-09-03T00:54Z 23.6K followers, 16K engagements


"You dont have to support this action or like it but if you work in markets you should *pay attention* to it. Economic statecraft joins up with the political and economic variants in a unified Grand Macro Strategy. https://t.co/5Ka5KjDYYt https://t.co/5Ka5KjDYYt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963044983105323229)  2025-09-03T01:02Z 23.6K followers, 92.5K engagements


"Exactly as I predicted would happen due to U.S. economic statecraft. Which also says Canada is next so the U.S. de facto sets the external tariff for the whole USMCA. Mexico is considering enacting new tariffs on countries with which it does not have a trade agreement including China President Claudia Sheinbaum said https://t.co/Iu3wkYG55r Mexico is considering enacting new tariffs on countries with which it does not have a trade agreement including China President Claudia Sheinbaum said https://t.co/Iu3wkYG55r"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963742558133330028)  2025-09-04T23:14Z 23.6K followers, 11.7K engagements


"You cant ask whats GDP for without asking what are central banks for While they have answers (2% CPI low unemployment financial stability) none are geostrategic. They reflect the neoliberal world that was not the realpolitik that now is. Im going to piss off 90% of my fellow buysiders with this but fuck it: One mans central bank independence is another mans central bank that is unaccountable in a democracy. There is a lot of value in the veneer of central bank independence. But that value isnt Im going to piss off 90% of my fellow buysiders with this but fuck it: One mans central bank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1964847394182558139)  2025-09-08T00:24Z 23.6K followers, 11.8K engagements


"This is worth reading. Ive pointed to *systemic* western failure for years and was joking we built luxury skyscrapers like the Soviets did statues of Lenin both hoping something will turn up. It hasnt and we are left with the key question What is GDP *for* Winning answer gets decades in power. France is looking for its fifth prime minister in two years. Yookay has had five in nine years (for compassion the previous five PMs lasted [--] years between them). Maybe just maybe it is the system itselfthe entire system of systems we call the postwar settlementthat's France is looking for its fifth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965365421491806590)  2025-09-09T10:43Z 23.6K followers, 15.6K engagements


"2025 day [---] Good morning from Asia. Trump ally and celebrity conservative influencer Charlie Kirk whose mantra was that peaceful public discussion was the best way to prevent political disagreements from spilling into violence was assassinated in Utah - then seeing celebrations from the extreme end of the opposite political camp and claims Israel did it from the further right. Regardless of your politics a dark day for all hoping western societies can hold together through the multiple challenges they face via rational policy debate; President Trump gave a televised Oval Office address which"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965949476667081121)  2025-09-11T01:24Z 23.6K followers, 18.2K engagements


"🎯 Ive been making the same point Luke. If AI works its a huge problem socio-economically and socio-politically but with some upside. If AI doesnt work its a huge problem socio-economically and socio-politically with no upside. If AI & robots do solve our national debt in time the implied productivity gain suggests entry-level US unemployment will rise (possibly sharply) into growing US demographics & the most volatile US domestic political environment in [--] yrs Read @Peter_Turchin's book "End Times" If AI & robots do solve our national debt in time the implied productivity gain suggests"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967235627491147950)  2025-09-14T14:34Z 23.6K followers, 14.4K engagements


"2025 day [---]. Good morning from Asia. The SCMP which has run a series of Chinese military-related headlines of late says AI will soon make undetectable submarines detectable. Which will remove a massive U.S. strategic advantage; as Nikkei-Asias main headline was that Japan will investigate undersea cable supply chains for Chinese input over national security fears; Polands President Nawrocki signed a resolution consenting to the presence of foreign forces from NATO member states in his country; India will join Russias Zapad [----] military games swing NATO as the threat and with Belarus further"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967390293583655140)  2025-09-15T00:49Z 23.6K followers, 80.3K engagements


"I agree this is deadly serious; but I cant resist this meme of the geopolitical parties involved. No prizes for guessing who is who. Beijing just issued a blunt warning: any move by NATO/G7 - under U.S. pressure - to slap secondary tariffs on its Russian oil imports will trigger decisive countermeasures. This is not a narrow trade dispute. Its the latest frontline in Cold War [---]. Washington is Beijing just issued a blunt warning: any move by NATO/G7 - under U.S. pressure - to slap secondary tariffs on its Russian oil imports will trigger decisive countermeasures. This is not a narrow trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967546219368267797)  2025-09-15T11:09Z 23.6K followers, 25K engagements


"The White House plans to use the $550bn pledged by Japan alongside its new trade deal to fund new plant for semiconductors pharma critical minerals energy ships and quantum computing. If Japan wont fund these projects its tariffs go up. Logically Europe would then be next. Come on in the economic statecraft is lovely https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969000489128993253 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969000489128993253"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969000489128993253)  2025-09-19T11:27Z 23.6K followers, 27.5K engagements


"In [----] I said the U.S. and China were likely heading for a Cold War and the U.S. would mirror Chinas economic strategy back at it. Even singing the Soviet national anthem when presenting the view failed to get many to really listen: it was an interesting or colourful idea meaning never gonna happen. And here we are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971230491232829593)  2025-09-25T15:09Z 23.6K followers, 13K engagements


"OK Im calling it. Peak 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971407984002728335)  2025-09-26T02:54Z 23.6K followers, 11.8K engagements


"But which central banks EM are going gold: DM arent And EM net export to DM. (1) EM force DM to go on gold at massively lower FX rates that ruin DM and EM as net exporters; or (2) DM stay on $ and gold EM keep it - which can go up sure; or (3) DM onshore production and gold EM need to find 800m high-spending consumers to buy their exports asap. Those are the logical end-states. Gold will be a bigger % of global FX rsvs than USTs in a few mths Central bank gold ($4.3T) will likely soon be total USD assets in FX rsvs ($6.7T) Consensus only now shifting from "denial" to "anger" stage of grief on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971754295931621777)  2025-09-27T01:50Z 23.6K followers, 80.6K engagements


"@SantiagoAuFund @LukeGromen A thread on gold - via Star Wars. Look at the shiny gold medals around their necks - but who is The Force with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971960189290270925)  2025-09-27T15:28Z 23.6K followers, 33.5K engagements


"I just got this message re: my missing suitcase but frankly it sums [----] up perfectly in almost every context:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975124984046756277)  2025-10-06T09:04Z 23.6K followers, 14K engagements


"Its not Trumpism when we do it. Today we will get 50% EU steel tariffs aimed at tackling cheap Chinese imports. Industry chief Stphane Sjourn was forced to deny that the bloc is mimicking Trump in the EP yesterday evening https://t.co/g5Qmr8SsXp Today we will get 50% EU steel tariffs aimed at tackling cheap Chinese imports. Industry chief Stphane Sjourn was forced to deny that the bloc is mimicking Trump in the EP yesterday evening https://t.co/g5Qmr8SsXp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975427625087815820)  2025-10-07T05:07Z 23.6K followers, 22.5K engagements


"When the U.S. did this kind of thing its self defeating because it promotes the other side to develop their own supply. When China does it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976135742553489502)  2025-10-09T04:00Z 23.6K followers, 10.1K engagements


"Expect this vibe in the U.S. but where do Europe Japan and India sit having seen this just happen Rare earths & other inputs are a key China card for the next 3-4 years until alternative non-because markets U.S. supplies come online. But the U.S. has cards to play too. If you dont understand yet CCP is creatively trying to push a foreign direct product style rule to extraterritorially control all products made with Chinese inputs or tools. Let that sink in. When folks dont comply wait till the cranes cars and computers stop working. If you dont understand yet CCP is creatively trying to push"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976839667510382715)  2025-10-11T02:37Z 23.6K followers, 32.5K engagements


"Have to confess this is a good one Meanwhile . . . https://t.co/ZTZOGQJAkR Meanwhile . . . https://t.co/ZTZOGQJAkR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976840722856001697)  2025-10-11T02:42Z 23.6K followers, 10.9K engagements


"A U.S. investment bank putting $1.5trn into physical capital not financial assets after recent China rare earths news and a White House call for a Warp Speed statecraft response Whocouldanooed BREAKING: JPMorganChase will invest $1.5 TRILLION into [--] "critical industries" in America. Here's the list: Advanced Bulk Materials Advanced Manufacturing Artificial Intelligence Autonomous Mobile Robots Battery Storage Command & Control Tech Critical https://t.co/LKadbZnRnw BREAKING: JPMorganChase will invest $1.5 TRILLION into [--] "critical industries" in America. Here's the list: Advanced Bulk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977892503753003462)  2025-10-14T00:21Z 23.6K followers, 16.9K engagements


"Again markets are cherry picking the deescalation headlines they prefer *CHINA VOWS TO FIGHT TRADE WAR 'TO THE END *CHINA VOWS TO FIGHT TRADE WAR 'TO THE END"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977907148324749588)  2025-10-14T01:19Z 23.6K followers, 27.7K engagements


"*BESSENT: CHINA 'CAN'T BE TRUSTED WITH THE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN' *BESSENT: PERHAPS CHINA VICE COMMERCE MINISTER WENT 'ROGUE' *BESSENT: IF CHINA AIMS TO BE UNRELIABLE WORLD MUST DECOUPLE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978465639321993583)  2025-10-15T14:19Z 23.6K followers, 27.3K engagements


"This is naive of the realpolitik. First ASML relies on key U.S. inputs. Second what do you think Trump would do to Europe if it struck a high-end chips deal with China for rare earths (for itself) - just have a Diet Coke and a smile A post-IMF meetings thought on EU-China diplomacy. For Europe theres no growth in China the opposite. But the EU could offer to not escalate or even loosen ASML exports to China in exchange for (preferential) access to rare earths. A mutually beneficial bargain. 1/ A post-IMF meetings thought on EU-China diplomacy. For Europe theres no growth in China the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979933947388952593)  2025-10-19T15:33Z 23.6K followers, 43.6K engagements


"This latest FT bewailing of economic populism comes as technocratic centrist France sees a major Le Monde opinion poll showing: 96% feel dissatisfied or angry about the state of the country 90% believe it is in decline 81% dont think democracy is working for them 66% think most politicians are corrupt 71% think their living standards are getting worse 57% have trouble making ends meet 85% think France needs a real leader to restore order 63% say they dont feel at home any more In [----] I argued centrist technocracy *creates* populism. Earlier in [----] Martin Wolf promised to share how an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980835552464412974)  2025-10-22T03:16Z 23.6K followers, 27.4K engagements


"Volkswagen to halt production at key German plants from next week amid missing chips from China BILD As VDL says: "In the coming days I will also engage very closely with European leaders and international partners as a crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a distant risk. It is on our doorstep. No: its in the living room drinking your schnapps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981006208187421010)  2025-10-22T14:34Z 23.6K followers, 41.1K engagements


"The below is a strong view to consider vs the opposite takes - at least until we see the outcome; but the U.S. certainly put its footprint on ASEAN again: Commitment to refrain from banning or imposing quotas on exports of critical minerals or rare earths to the U.S.; partnerships for processing and development with U.S. firms; a pledge of $70bn FDI in U.S. over [--] years. Cooperation on supply chain diversification & a framework trade pact addressing tariffs and barriers; commitment to purchase [--] U.S. aircraft worth $18.8bn and $5.4bn energy annually. CHINA JUST SURRENDERED. [--] HOURS. $3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982454477031702808)  2025-10-26T14:29Z 23.6K followers, 65.5K engagements


"This is a short term deal where China seems to have given on all fronts and the U.S. didnt move much at all except on one front where it can easily reverse course: Soybean sales ✅ Top AI chips for China ❎ Fentanyl work / -10% tariff ✅ Rare earths controls gone (only for ) as goes all in on alternatives ✅ pause on ship actions (as it builds related alliances with and ) ✅ Taiwan issue ❎ Both sides get peace and quiet for a few months on ONE key front or until they achieve their own breakthroughs that allow them to up the ante vs the other again. Longer term Great Game goes on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983768994873307212)  2025-10-30T05:32Z 23.6K followers, 90.5K engagements


"This was the talk I had with The Danube Institute recently just after Star Alliance lost my suitcase on the way there and before I ended up sleeping on the floor of Munich airport going home because of overhead drones. Fortunately I think the event was worth it (And many thanks to @Raphfel for his warm hospitality) https://youtu.be/tOF59C62G9Qsi=4CBeE04XicupdigT https://youtu.be/tOF59C62G9Qsi=4CBeE04XicupdigT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984623759576162343)  2025-11-01T14:09Z 23.6K followers, 73.9K engagements


"And here they mean actual DOLLARISATION as in dollar adoption not just for external trade or accounting etc. This was always a no-brainer for U.S. Grand Macro Strategy; so is the linked usage of Dollar Stablecoins; and the countries at the front of the line to do so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984888546688389267)  2025-11-02T07:41Z 23.6K followers, 16.1K engagements


"In light of how radical some of the news we've seen since Friday is I am sharing an excerpt from today's Global Daily that underlines what's potentially at stake. I'd add that even the Feds Williams is warning the gulf between the rich and the poor risks a US downturn: but is his suggested answer rate cuts Historically these increase inequality and political populism due to asset prices surging and wages staying flat. Much more than that might be needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987738368424444076)  2025-11-10T04:25Z 23.6K followers, 158.3K engagements


"We are only a few weeks into this U.S.-China deal and its looking more and more Empire Strikes Back. China wants to inspect US civilian factories to ensure they are using the rare earths they buy from China rather than passing them on to US defense firms. https://t.co/ZeFhjDY55R China wants to inspect US civilian factories to ensure they are using the rare earths they buy from China rather than passing them on to US defense firms. https://t.co/ZeFhjDY55R"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988128439409537527)  2025-11-11T06:15Z 23.6K followers, 122K engagements


"Those who cant see the geopolitics in stablecoin geoeconomics are not just Luddites but 🎯 targets 🎯 As a policy researcher put it to me yesterday Explain this to me like Im [--] years old. I replied Europe is in trouble. My latest column in DLNews on the dangers of stablecoins to the euro and the financial illiteracy of the European Parliament. https://t.co/Tib4qbwgxz My latest column in DLNews on the dangers of stablecoins to the euro and the financial illiteracy of the European Parliament. https://t.co/Tib4qbwgxz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988160407085945233)  2025-11-11T08:22Z 23.6K followers, 34.8K engagements


"Well well well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988535014347424064)  2025-11-12T09:11Z 23.6K followers, 27.8K engagements

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