# ![@TaviCosta Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2584103654.png) @TaviCosta Otavio (Tavi) Costa

Otavio (Tavi) Costa posts on X about stocks, gold, inflation, in the the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2584103654/interactions)
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- [--] Week [---------] +79%
- [--] Month [---------] +70%
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- [--] Year [----------] +2.70%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2584103654/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [--] +9.90%
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- [--] Year [---] +4.40%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2584103654/followers)
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- [--] Week [-------] +0.57%
- [--] Month [-------] +3.50%
- [--] Months [-------] +14%
- [--] Year [-------] +24%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2584103654/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  57.14% [currencies](/list/currencies)  9.74% [countries](/list/countries)  8.44% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.95% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1.3% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.3% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.3% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  1.3% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.65% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.65%

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks) #2660, [gold](/topic/gold) #4458, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 8.44%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 7.79%, [silver](/topic/silver) #2726, [debt](/topic/debt) #2145, [the most](/topic/the-most) 4.55%, [alltime](/topic/alltime) 4.55%, [money](/topic/money) 3.9%, [currencies](/topic/currencies) 3.9%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jhamel](/creator/undefined) [@vcrouste](/creator/undefined) [@rawguru_records](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@kirbykennedy13](/creator/undefined) [@damoaussiefx](/creator/undefined) [@ronstoeferle](/creator/undefined) [@ullaris](/creator/undefined) [@capnek123](/creator/undefined) [@rockbtmentries](/creator/undefined) [@william_r2rclub](/creator/undefined) [@jfodor_](/creator/undefined) [@fxgecko_global](/creator/undefined) [@tnr_gold](/creator/undefined) [@strykrai](/creator/undefined) [@ddsoffice](/creator/undefined) [@geomadegeo](/creator/undefined) [@joris_lebbe](/creator/undefined) [@georges_perron](/creator/undefined) [@swandeviation](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"For the first time in recorded history global data show zero gold discoveries in two consecutive years. This has never occurred before. And this is not unique to gold. Major discoveries across most metals have fallen into the single digits with no meaningful projects in the pipeline capable of materially altering the global supply curve. This is the real barometer of where we are in the mining cycle. Still early. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019866206807945228 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019866206807945228"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2019866206807945228)  2026-02-06T20:10Z 299.3K followers, 404.3K engagements


"A personal update: After [--] years at Crescat Capital Im moving on to the next chapter. Im grateful for the relationships mentorship and professional growth along the way and I wish the firm continued success. My next step: I plan to launch my own fund in the coming months. Stay tuned. Going forward you can reach me at tavicostamacro@gmail.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2001317446075171095)  2025-12-17T15:43Z 299.3K followers, 297.9K engagements


"This move on the US dollar may be the single most important development unfolding today. Yes hard assets are once again surgingfurther validating the ongoing rotation into real assets. However: The US dollar remains the critical variable with powerful second- and third-order effects across multiple interconnected macro themes. The DXY has been resting on a major support level for over a year and the consensus view still assumes another bounce. My view Highly unlikely. I believe we are in the early stages of a decisive breakdown in the dollar one that will ignite a range of other macro theses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2013686685817508301)  2026-01-20T18:54Z 299.3K followers, 142.9K engagements


"To sum up the week: Gold hit $5000/oz Silver moved above $100/oz The USD had its worst week in nine months EM equities surged Industrial metals rallied Energy stocks posted their best four-week run in a year Many still view these moves as isolated and unrelated. I dont. My views: The USD is likely entering a multi-year downtrend Precious metals are in a secular bull market Miners remain deeply undervalued relative to metals Emerging markets are historically cheap versus US equities Energy is in the early stages of a resurgence None of us own enough hard assets. Again these are just my"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014830328150687896)  2026-01-23T22:39Z 299.3K followers, 211.6K engagements


"Platinum vs. Brazilian stocks. On the surface these markets look unrelated. In reality both are downstream expressions of the same secular gold-driven cycle. Investing is an exercise in accepting risk and understanding second- and third-order effects. If you like gold you eventually move to silver then copper then the miners. From there its not a stretch to consider platinum and palladium emerging markets and ultimately Brazilian equities. Im particularly drawn to second- and third-order investment opportunities that remain largely under the radar. And to be clear this is not a short-term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2016619943299862578)  2026-01-28T21:10Z 299.3K followers, 178.4K engagements


"So much for a hawkish incoming Fed chair. A FedTreasury accord thats about to fundamentally reshape interest rates. None of us own enough hard assets. H/t @zerohedge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020612115040715116)  2026-02-08T21:34Z 299.3K followers, 375.5K engagements


"So let me get this straight. Trump appoints a Fed chair to aggressively cut rates and the market is pricing in just two 25bp cuts Im taking the over all day long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020940104249090385)  2026-02-09T19:17Z 299.3K followers, 47K engagements


"How early are we in the move out of US assets and into emerging markets About this early see the chart below. The ratio of Latin American to US stocks is now retesting levels last seen at the major [----] historical bottom a pivotal inflection point that preceded more than a decade of sustained LatAm outperformance versus US equities. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021687231602425930 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021687231602425930"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2021687231602425930)  2026-02-11T20:46Z 299.3K followers, 53.9K engagements


"Normally when metals perform well for a few years producers ramp up output to capitalize on the favorable environment. Not this time. Decades of underinvestment in the mining industry have been so severe that there are virtually no significant new mines coming online to meaningfully change the supply curve. Some think this problem is unique to silver. Its not. While the imbalance is more acute there other metals face the same challenge: a shortage of new supply on the horizon. This is one of the main reasons I believe this metals and mining cycle is likely to last much longer than prior ones."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1960748145857716688)  2025-08-27T16:56Z 299.1K followers, 46.5K engagements


"Gold miners made this move a few weeks ago and now junior silver miners are beginning to break out relative to the price of silver. Although the metals themselves are still undervalued compared to the money supply and other financial assets its important to note that in-ground mineral reserves remain historically underpriced and theyre only now starting to attract attention. Exciting times for those holding high-quality silver assets in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1972735874015351166)  2025-09-29T18:50Z 298.7K followers, 75.5K engagements


"Copper is one of the most critical macro assets for [----] as we are likely to enter a true price-discovery phase in my view. Despite prices sitting near all-time highs production is not responding. In fact output in the worlds largest producing country is at one of its lowest levels in over a decade. This setup points to the potential for a highly explosive move from here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003865225112482041 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003865225112482041"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2003865225112482041)  2025-12-24T16:27Z 297.6K followers, 125.5K engagements


"This could be the year we see a meaningful resurgence in energy commodities particularly oil. Im not a short-term trader but its hard to ignore the major technical support oil is currently resting on. The same levels that not long ago marked significant resistance. Market bottoms are a process and they almost always are formed in the midst of deeply negative sentiment. By that measure we are certainly there today. Oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and in my view this is precisely where smart money begins to accumulate. It reminds me of the metals market a few years ago when virtually no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2009021842464624899)  2026-01-07T21:58Z 298.7K followers, 60.1K engagements


"The next leg higher in energy stocks could be explosive. This chart speaks for itself yet investors continue to treat commodity moves as isolated events. Thats not my view. These dynamics are deeply interconnected and energy appears next in line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2010441775073378628)  2026-01-11T20:00Z 297.6K followers, 217.3K engagements


"Gold is making new highs as a monetary realignment unfolds in real time. One chart says it all: Chinas Treasury holdings are at 18-year lows while gold reserves are at all-time highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2013851947334357493)  2026-01-21T05:51Z 297.6K followers, 144.6K engagements


"No one owns energy today. This is exactly where the mining industry was a few years ago -- although its only just coming off the lows. We are still exceptionally early in the broader hard-assets trend in my view. H/t to my friend @RonStoeferle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2013979562439303556)  2026-01-21T14:18Z 298.1K followers, 86.7K engagements


"Brazilian stocks are currently breaking out from a historical resistance this month. Many investors still view these moves as isolated and unrelated to whats unfolding in hard assets. I disagree. Resource-rich emerging markets have historically been deeply tied to the commodities cycle. If this is indeed the early phase of a rotation into hard assets it should by definition be highly constructive for economies like Brazil. In my view this marks the beginning of a long-term structural trend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014197084996747597"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2014197084996747597)  2026-01-22T04:43Z 297.7K followers, 206.4K engagements


"This is the kind of disconnect that still exists in the mining industry. A $2.4B company sitting on an estimated $45B of metal in the ground. One of the most significant gold discoveries of the past decade. This is not unique to this company; it reflects a broader industry-wide issue and opportunity. $SNWGF $SGD.V These are just my views do your own DD. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014442971752759757 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014442971752759757"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2014442971752759757)  2026-01-22T21:00Z 299.2K followers, 134.9K engagements


"Im getting an increasing number of messages from people saying they joined a Telegram or WhatsApp group where I supposedly share trade ideas. This is not me its a complete scam. If you signed up for one of these groups Im sorry to say this but its not legitimate. Please be careful out there. I do not run any WhatsApp or Telegram groups sharing trade secrets. Im not even a trader. Please disengage immediately and do not interact with these criminals. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015140955138261499 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015140955138261499"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2015140955138261499)  2026-01-24T19:13Z 298.2K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Ill repeat what Ive said before: This move in metals has real hyperinflation vibes. Its remarkable how little thats being discussed in the broader narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2015594495929360598)  2026-01-26T01:15Z 298.5K followers, 409.1K engagements


"With just [--] trading days left in the month: The dollar index has broken below a major support level for the first time in [--] years. The world is not positioned for this in my view. The debasement trade is now well understood but the next phase is a broad weakening of the US dollar relative to other fiat currencies. What makes this moment especially important is the monthly close. If the dollar finishes the month below this level it could mark the beginning of a multi-year downtrend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015816716069319082 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015816716069319082"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2015816716069319082)  2026-01-26T15:58Z 298.7K followers, 121.1K engagements


"A reminder that you can always buy this JPEG if you think metals are too expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016124574627188835)  2026-01-27T12:22Z 298.9K followers, 101.5K engagements


"The potential next Fed chair. None of us own enough hard assets. Rick Rieder is now the odds-on favorite to become the next Fed Chairman. The two clips below show he is: - Motivated to cut rates much lower - Fully aware of fiscal dominance - Eager to use the Feds balance sheet in innovative ways TLDR: You dont own enough hard assets. https://t.co/nghz6hRMxI Rick Rieder is now the odds-on favorite to become the next Fed Chairman. The two clips below show he is: - Motivated to cut rates much lower - Fully aware of fiscal dominance - Eager to use the Feds balance sheet in innovative ways TLDR:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016145170513985795)  2026-01-27T13:44Z 298.1K followers, 104K engagements


"Another key piece of the macro puzzle is now on the table: A decisive breakdown in the US dollar. The world remains heavily overweight U.S. assets and is not positioned for a sustained dollar downtrend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016266065547083905)  2026-01-27T21:44Z 299.2K followers, 41.9K engagements


"So the dollar is weakening. Gold and silver are surging. Oil is resurging. Copper is going vertical. The Fed needs to cut rates. Fiscal deficits remain pedal to the metal. Trump says housing needs to remain expensive. But inflation is controlled. ok"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016501462608830792)  2026-01-28T13:19Z 298.2K followers, 58.5K engagements


"This is a story about perseverance conviction and goodwill. A few years ago we held a strong macro view that silver was historically undervalued. When you reach that conclusion as an investor there are several paths you can take. Some buy the metal. Others invest in silver miners. And a very small group decides to do a leveraged buyout of the fifth-largest silver mine in the world and own the business outright. With silver trading around $15/oz at the time we chose the latter and we succeeded. That outcome would not have been possible without my good friend Quinton Hennigh nor without"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016755161046102349)  2026-01-29T06:07Z 297.6K followers, 47.4K engagements


"Its not unreasonable to assign a 25% probability to a hyperinflationary outcome. Its not my base case but its meaningfully above zero. The pace of dollar destruction were seeing is extraordinary. The truly alarming part is that the average American remains completely unaware of whats unfolding. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016871555977138387 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016871555977138387"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016871555977138387)  2026-01-29T13:50Z 298.1K followers, 61.4K engagements


"@ImJustALaptop no thank you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2018725646097158288)  2026-02-03T16:37Z 297.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@ullaris If supply is a function of price only how did gold go up 150% in [--] years with no meaningful changes in production and virtually no new discoveries You just contradicted yourself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020075279306379680)  2026-02-07T10:00Z 299.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@VCrouste @jhamel So ignore positioning being historically short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020962556547039261)  2026-02-09T20:46Z 299.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@jhamel @VCrouste Fair enough. You are welcome to have views. My issue is calling your view contrarian when its already one of the most shorted currencies today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020967895338189155)  2026-02-09T21:07Z 299.1K followers, [---] engagements


"US total oil production is now declining on a year-over-year basis for the first time in nearly five years. It turns out that a roughly 30% drop in the number of active rigs over the past three years does matter for production despite the narrative that efficiency gains alone would offset it. Keep in mind oil is also sitting at one of its most heavily shorted positions in more than a decade. Yes Im firmly bullish on energy here. This looks like the early stages of a meaningful resurgence for the sector. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021339698879398201"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2021339698879398201)  2026-02-10T21:45Z 299K followers, 86.9K engagements


"Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis. Net inflows from international investors over the past [--] days have reached historically elevated levels maintaining a consistent upward trajectory over the last two years. Brazilian stocks recently broke out from a 15-year technical resistance and remain among the most undervalued equity markets both globally and in relation to their own historical context. If this is indeed the initial phase of a long-term prolonged commodities bull"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1687957887065468928)  2023-08-05T22:44Z 299.2K followers, 479.8K engagements


"It didnt take long. Energy equities are now breaking out decisively. This is in my view one of the most exciting opportunities setting up for [----]. Asymmetry is written all over it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2011529746887426229)  2026-01-14T20:03Z 299.2K followers, 173.5K engagements


"A reminder that about 1/4 of US debt matures in the next [--] months. The last two times we saw similar refinancing pressure policy rates were at 0%. Today rates are 3.75% with the market pricing fewer than [--] cuts by year-end. Hard to see this aligning with Trump and the new Fed Chair. None of us own enough hard assets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012290838202826999 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012290838202826999"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2012290838202826999)  2026-01-16T22:28Z 299.2K followers, 113.6K engagements


"Goldman Sachs clients are the most bearish on oil in roughly a decade. Futures positioning confirms this pessimism sitting near one of the most negative extremes on record. Meanwhile: Oil rig counts have been in sustained decline for nearly three years as WTI prices are also testing major long-term technical support. I smell a major resurgence. This looks like the time for smart capital to be accumulating energy-related assets in my view. H/t to my good friend @RonStoeferle for the excellent chart. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009615306722037949"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2009615306722037949)  2026-01-09T13:16Z 299.2K followers, 87.7K engagements


"One thing I learned in life. There is no such thing as a triple top"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1646976627174252545)  2023-04-14T20:40Z 299.3K followers, 557.1K engagements


"The updated Silver-to-S&P [---] ratio chart increasingly suggests the early stages of a major cycle where silver outperforms U.S. equities. While many investors have been conditioned to expect the opposite this chart highlights just how early we might be in a broader trend of capital rotating into hard assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1977801595849937292)  2025-10-13T18:20Z 299.3K followers, 181.1K engagements


"This made my day. The unwind of gold I think silver is way overvalued The unwind of gold I think silver is way overvalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016945438478520706)  2026-01-29T18:44Z 299.3K followers, 64.9K engagements


"I think this is a compelling roadmap to keep in mind. These moves never play out exactly as expected but a bottom in the $5070/oz range seems plausible to me. After that the next leg higher likely begins. Even under this scenario miners still look far too undervalued in my view. H/t @PeterLBrandt for the great chart https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017407211123949871 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017407211123949871"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2017407211123949871)  2026-01-31T01:18Z 299.3K followers, 83.5K engagements


"Energy stocks keep inching higher quietly building the pressure for what I think could become a sharp decisive breakout. You cant perfectly time these inflection points but the macro pieces are falling into place: Positioning remains deeply bearish. U.S. oil and gas rigs are contracting meaningfully. Oil is trading near one of the cheapest levels in history relative to the money supply. Energys weight in the S&P [---] is hovering near record lows. It reminds me of when people said I was crazy for buying mining stocks insisting metals would never move. While my conviction in miners hasnt changed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1997733219018670501)  2025-12-07T18:21Z 299.3K followers, 369K engagements


"Volatility. We all knew it was coming we just didnt know exactly how it would play out. A clear macro framework is absolutely critical to being disciplined patient capital allocators. With that in mind: Gold as a percentage of global market capitalization remains around 20%. Thats still far from the peak levels seen in prior cycles. Very far. I view this as a useful timing signal for where we are in the broader rebalancing from financial assets to real assets. There are a lot of emotions in the market today. Step back look at the long-term chart and plan accordingly. These are just my views."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2017324585642037569)  2026-01-30T19:50Z 299.3K followers, 216.6K engagements


"As the market fixates on silvers volatility: The silver miners-to-silver ratio is currently at one of its lowest levels in history. Not long ago investors were dreaming of silver trading above $50/oz. Today with prices well above that level some producers are operating at sub-$15/oz costs. These are the mining industrys equivalent of tech- or software-like margins. What a moment to deploy capital even as the market remains distracted by volatility. Game on. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018440401460563980 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018440401460563980"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2018440401460563980)  2026-02-02T21:44Z 299.3K followers, 202.9K engagements


"Gold back above $5000/oz. The consistent buying on every dip speaks volumes about whos accumulating the metal regardless of the noise. The reality is that gold remains deeply undervalued relative to the scale of global imbalances were facing. That said Volatility shouldnt surprise anyone here. Its rare for an asset to absorb a hit like the one we saw last week and then move straight back up without a few bumps along the way. Still gold remains severely underowned and this move looks like it has real legs as part of a much larger cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018896770399449332"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2018896770399449332)  2026-02-04T03:57Z 299.3K followers, 62.3K engagements


"There it goes. Brazils largest energy company is on the verge of a major breakout. If you dont see the connection to the recent breakdown in the US dollar I cant help you. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016165477437898811)  2026-01-27T15:04Z 299.3K followers, 193.7K engagements


"Its happening folks. Energy stocks are resurging. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2016995681148248574)  2026-01-29T22:03Z 299.3K followers, 160.9K engagements


"Year in year out New faces in old faces out Debt keeps rising same old route. None of us own enough hard assets https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018724163037401336 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018724163037401336"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2018724163037401336)  2026-02-03T16:32Z 299.3K followers, 50K engagements


"Where are we in the commodities cycle Early. You can't undo decades of chronic underinvestment and neglect in just two years of solid performance. The past couple of years served as a stark wake-up call for institutional investors. They've piled into the sector in a hurry but now they face the steep learning curve of mastering a highly complex industry one that demands massive capital and deep expertise to even begin addressing the severe resource shortages gripping the world today. This feels very much like the opening act of a major commodities supercycle in my view. And that cycle could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2019185766090313895)  2026-02-04T23:06Z 299.3K followers, 105.7K engagements


"This is a very important moment in history for the Bolivian economy The United States supports its friend Bolivia as it charts a new path towards pro-market reforms. Productive conversation with Foreign Minister Aramayo today as we strengthen our relationship and advance common goals in our region. https://t.co/7YTmaVaXju The United States supports its friend Bolivia as it charts a new path towards pro-market reforms. Productive conversation with Foreign Minister Aramayo today as we strengthen our relationship and advance common goals in our region. https://t.co/7YTmaVaXju"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2019553256184377784)  2026-02-05T23:26Z 299.3K followers, 28.3K engagements


"Perspective: The last time silver traded near $65/oz was mid-December. Back then the 14-day RSI was pushing [--] and sentiment was euphoric. Today at the same price RSI sits around [--] and the world is panicking. Borrowing a line from Buffett: "Be greedy when others are fearful" https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019569664951742863 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019569664951742863"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2019569664951742863)  2026-02-06T00:31Z 299.3K followers, 294.2K engagements


"China is moving toward a digital currency that is likely backed by gold. This is a hugely important and still underappreciated development. Im not suggesting this marks the end of the US dollar or anything extreme. But the direction is clear: The world is gradually moving back toward some form of a gold standard. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses rumors that China is building digital assets to challenge the American financial system: https://t.co/WsqyBjt77A Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses rumors that China is building digital assets to challenge the American financial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2019602971521417666)  2026-02-06T02:44Z 299.3K followers, 107K engagements


"The Canadian dollar is quietly breaking higher as the US dollar increasingly confirms the early stages of a major downtrend. Every gold bull market follows the same pattern: a mining cycle a broad commodities rally a rotation into emerging markets and a strengthening of foreign currencies versus the USD. Yes even the Canadian peso could catch a bid here :) Its one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. This is exactly the kind of setup I like especially when you remember that most mining stocks are priced in Canadian dollars."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020890643585978406)  2026-02-09T16:00Z 299.3K followers, 157K engagements


"@jhamel How is that contrarian if its one of the most shorted currency in the planet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2020935257768460410)  2026-02-09T18:58Z 299.3K followers, 24.5K engagements


"Hard assets. NOW - Trump: "Interest rates should be lower. You know every point is $600 billion. Think of that. $600 billion. All he has to do if we went down two points we don't have a deficit anymore." https://t.co/wUYkBgYcIl NOW - Trump: "Interest rates should be lower. You know every point is $600 billion. Think of that. $600 billion. All he has to do if we went down two points we don't have a deficit anymore." https://t.co/wUYkBgYcIl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2021344860855488895)  2026-02-10T22:05Z 299.3K followers, 174.9K engagements


"In other words: This administration is now politically levered to asset prices expect intervention if markets wobble. Once success is tied to asset prices backstopping them becomes inevitable. To reiterate: Thats supportive of hard assets over time in my view. This is a macro observation not a political one. Bondi crashes out over Epstein: "The Dow is over [-----] dollars I don't know why you're laughing. You're a great stock trader as I hear Raskin. The Dow is over [-----] right now. The S&P at almost [----] and the Nasdaq smashing records. That's what we should be talking about.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/2021878528925741543)  2026-02-12T09:26Z 299.3K followers, 48.4K engagements


"Irans share of OPEC oil production has recently reached its highest level on record. While overall OPEC output has been stagnating Iran has steadily and significantly increased its share in recent years. Yes the Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical chokepoint but Irans domestic production has arguably never played a more critical role in the global oil supply picture"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1936149919716266236)  2025-06-20T19:51Z 258.1K followers, 19.2K engagements


"Following the historic breakout in gold prices when adjusted for money supply silver now appears to be setting up for a similar move in my view. As Paul Tudor Jones once said: The key to being successful is to be able to time the breakout not just wait for it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1937177282386231377)  2025-06-23T15:53Z 258.7K followers, 32.5K engagements


"Im usually hesitant to chase assets once they hit the headlines but when we take a step back the recent pullback in oil looks technically reasonable. After a prolonged consolidation period oil now seems to be stabilizing and in my view could be setting the stage for a new leg higher. On the fundamental side I believe energy prices still appear significantly undervalued: US inventories continue to draw down Rig counts are starting to trend lower Geopolitical tensions are structurally escalating Positioning is near is shortest levels of the past decade This a macro setup that deserves attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1937698247365009695)  2025-06-25T02:23Z 258.3K followers, 43.4K engagements


"Silver is approaching a record quarterly close which could mark the beginning of a price discovery phase in my view. The near-term setup looks particularly compelling right now. Other metals are starting to catch up to gold despite many claiming that would never happen. In my experience investing in natural resources these markets are deeply interconnected. One bull market often sets the stage for the next. This is likely one of the most broadly constructive macro environments for hard assets that Ive seen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1937996139590013133)  2025-06-25T22:07Z 260K followers, 63.4K engagements


"Its time. Silver is on the verge of a major breakout in my view from one of the longest cup-and-handle formations Ive ever seen. https://t.co/ECroUf8yLU Silver is on the verge of a major breakout in my view from one of the longest cup-and-handle formations Ive ever seen. https://t.co/ECroUf8yLU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1938169124087066869)  2025-06-26T09:35Z 258.3K followers, 89.4K engagements


"This thesis continues to develop and is likely still in its early stages. The premise is the following: When a country is the only one paying close to 5% of its GDP in interest expense it can no longer claim to be the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile. Thats precisely where the US dollar stands today in my view. Were in the midst of a major downward shift in short-term interest rates an effort to ease the governments growing debt burden. The trade-off of these policies is a meaningful devaluation of the dollar. Today a new set of structural pressures has brought the US dollar to a critical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1938289883971289365)  2025-06-26T17:34Z 258.3K followers, 31.2K engagements


"The most concerning aspect of the recent decline in the US dollar lies in the fact that it is occurring despite a global monetary environment characterized by multiple rate cuts and markedly more accommodative policies by most foreign central banks. Notably even against this ostensibly supportive backdrop the dollar is undergoing its most severe annual depreciation in four decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1938412827418735091)  2025-06-27T01:43Z 258.3K followers, 43.9K engagements


"Almost exactly to this date other metals started to outperform gold. This pattern is typical and consistent with previous gold cycles. Silver and copper appear poised to enter a price discovery phase which is often marked by sharp aggressive moves. Meanwhile many other metals are still well below their previous highs much like silver and copper were just a few years ago. While we could try to pick a standout performer the reality is that most metals are likely to benefit from the broader trend. Never underestimate how interconnected the commodity space is. And dont forget as these trends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1938515600193781808)  2025-06-27T08:31Z 264.7K followers, 50K engagements


"It's interesting to see gold selling off on optimism around a US-China deal even as the more pressing story is China's continued and aggressive accumulation of the metal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1938724705910882812)  2025-06-27T22:22Z 258.9K followers, 43.3K engagements


"Fascinating move. You can tell a secular decline in the dollar is likely underway when emerging market currencies begin breaking key resistance levels. This aligns perfectly with whats been unfolding across hard assets first led by gold and now extending into other related assets. Dollar downturns tend to be long-lasting and broad-based typically fueling rallies in metals other commodities and foreign currencies. They also tend to favor international markets over US equities while emerging market stocks and bonds often outperform. The last time we saw this kind of shift was in the 1970s and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1939732185411424499)  2025-06-30T17:06Z 259.3K followers, 53.2K engagements


"Gold's rise has been driven far less by its safe-haven appeal and far more by the monetary and fiscal disorder we're experiencing. The precious metal is up by more than a quarter this year supported by demand for havens as investors grappled with heightened geopolitical and trade tensions https://t.co/ovtzwovzOT The precious metal is up by more than a quarter this year supported by demand for havens as investors grappled with heightened geopolitical and trade tensions https://t.co/ovtzwovzOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1940231598055862717)  2025-07-02T02:10Z 259.3K followers, 47.6K engagements


"This chart speaks for itself. The TSX Venture is as close as it gets to a benchmark for exploration-stage mining companies. We're seeing a clear uptick in volume and liquidity with investors moving further down the chain in search of earlier-stage opportunities. This is exactly what a mining cycle is supposed to look like in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1940510705750606154)  2025-07-02T20:39Z 260K followers, 87K engagements


"US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities: A classic macro alligator mouth that in my view is likely to close as global investors begin rotating out of US dollar-based assets. Emerging market equities remain one of the most fundamentally undervalued areas of the market and have historically benefited significantly from prolonged declines in the UU dollar in my view. I believe that shift is beginning to unfold now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1940834584356159867)  2025-07-03T18:06Z 264.3K followers, 30.6K engagements


"Still early. This is one of the most reliable ways to gauge where we are in a potential secular bull market for gold and other metals. The recent price action is simply a healthy consolidation before another major move in my view. Metals remain incredibly cheap in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1942334686350696745)  2025-07-07T21:27Z 259.3K followers, 49K engagements


"The Treasury market appears to be pricing in two key dynamics: The growing influence of the shadow Fed chair on short-term rates The mounting fiscal disarray pressuring the long end of the curve The clear beneficiary Hard assets in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1942425537441366139)  2025-07-08T03:28Z 259.3K followers, 19.2K engagements


"Oops there it goes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1942649667231309969)  2025-07-08T18:19Z 259.4K followers, 56.2K engagements


"The gap between developed and emerging markets is no longer as extreme as it once was but EM remains historically underallocated. That needs to change in my view. Additionally: Global fiscal disarray ultimately drives inflation bond market stress and a rotation of capital back into hard assets. Gilt rates are higher than they were in October [----]. Yet there is no media outcry or negative commentary from the @bankofengland. Britain's institutions are complicit in this huge economic failure. https://t.co/ceObWkAtK0 Gilt rates are higher than they were in October [----]. Yet there is no media"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1943009023940268514)  2025-07-09T18:07Z 259.5K followers, 23.1K engagements


"A reminder that the US has a trade surplus with Brazil not the other way around. *TRUMP ANNOUNCES 50% TARIFF ON BRAZIL *TRUMP ANNOUNCES 50% TARIFF ON BRAZIL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1943046293808447919)  2025-07-09T20:35Z 259.5K followers, 44.6K engagements


"The time has come. When your investment thesis holds lean in with confidence. Since mid-2019 weve been aggressively acquiring what we saw as undervalued assets with strong silver exposure consistently backing our conviction in the metal. At times it felt like a lonely stance but markets always have the final word. More importantly: This is still one of the largest cup-and-handle formations Ive seen in my career"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1943671453401936377)  2025-07-11T13:59Z 262.2K followers, 106K engagements


"Gold. BREAKING: US Director of Federal Housing William Pulte has said that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. https://t.co/PkUGZG8JN1 BREAKING: US Director of Federal Housing William Pulte has said that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. https://t.co/PkUGZG8JN1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1943753034863194421)  2025-07-11T19:23Z 260K followers, 39.1K engagements


"This is such a critical chart. Historically whenever commodities have been this undervalued relative to gold it has signaled a major market bottom. Now imagine a scenario where inflation begins to rise again just as a new ultra-dovish Fed chair is appointed. This could set the stage for a supercharged environment for hard assets in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1944196155576820104)  2025-07-13T00:44Z 260K followers, 90.7K engagements


"If commodities are right inflation has likely already bottomed and could be staging a meaningful resurgence. The reality is that resource prices are reflexive. They dont just signal inflation they help drive it and their impact spreads deeply through the economy. All this as we watch the potential emergence of a new Fed chair positioned to push rates lower and formally usher in an era of fiscal dominance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1944921762111873296)  2025-07-15T00:47Z 259.9K followers, 45.4K engagements


"The US dollar has strengthened over the past two weeks largely as a result of positioning shifts from an extremely bearish stance. This tactical move is likely closer to the end than the beginning in my view. I still believe were in the middle of a broader structural downtrend in the dollar one thats far from over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1945229148701778266)  2025-07-15T21:09Z 260.4K followers, 42.3K engagements


"Silver. Jerome Powell is going to be fired. Firing is imminent. Jerome Powell is going to be fired. Firing is imminent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1945299735545311259)  2025-07-16T01:49Z 259.9K followers, 69.9K engagements


"An important reminder: When gold goes silver leads. With gold now above $3300 the silver side of the story is about to get a lot more interesting in my view. Silver has formed one of the longest cup-and-handles on record. From what I have seen historically patterns like this often resolve with explosive upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1946212823614570944)  2025-07-18T14:17Z 260.2K followers, 51.3K engagements


"It's remarkable to see silver approaching $40/oz yet still historically undervalued relative to gold. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1947372848760455393)  2025-07-21T19:07Z 260.6K followers, 70.6K engagements


"@truflation My view is that both remain very low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1947401120139088374)  2025-07-21T20:59Z 260.5K followers, [----] engagements


"One of the longest-standing silver companies globally is in my view on the brink of breaking out from a 45-year resistance level. A new silver bull market is likely unfolding in my opinion. Apologies for sounding repetitive but I genuinely believe this is one of the most compelling macro opportunities Ive seen in my career. Its no coincidence that we chose to acquire what is now the fourth-largest silver mine in the world a few years ago. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1947444477104365762)  2025-07-21T23:51Z 263.5K followers, 73.7K engagements


"Indeed. Metals Large US Grid Lacks Capacity for New Data Centers Watchdog Says The biggest US grid has no spare supply for new data centers meaning project developers will need to build their own power plants according to the systems independent watchdog. There is simply no new capacity Large US Grid Lacks Capacity for New Data Centers Watchdog Says The biggest US grid has no spare supply for new data centers meaning project developers will need to build their own power plants according to the systems independent watchdog. There is simply no new capacity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1947715905707745401)  2025-07-22T17:50Z 260.5K followers, 29.5K engagements


"None of us own enough copper. Cable pr0n of @xAI GB200 servers at Colossus [--] https://t.co/ncg1fWBKN0 Cable pr0n of @xAI GB200 servers at Colossus [--] https://t.co/ncg1fWBKN0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1947718650431201439)  2025-07-22T18:01Z 260.2K followers, 23.6K engagements


"Worth highlighting: Despite copper reaching new highs it remains at one of its most undervalued levels relative to gold in history. Notice that we are also approaching a potential major breakout in the copper-to-gold ratio. Copper has officially entered a price discovery phase and in my view this move is still in its early stages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1948036471975510138)  2025-07-23T15:04Z 264.7K followers, 40.3K engagements


"While it hasnt been openly discussed I strongly believe a central but hidden objective of these trade agreements is to intentionally push the US dollar lower relative to other major fiat currencies. One possible lever to support that effort could be Japan allowing its long-term interest rates to rise relative to US yields. Keep in mind only about one-tenth of Japans debt is tied tomaturities of [--] years or longer. It also wouldnt surprise me if a large portion of the $550 billion capital commitment Japan recently announced without specifying a timeline ultimately comes in the form of Treasury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1948174770685837657)  2025-07-24T00:13Z 260.7K followers, 33.3K engagements


"This is a critical chart for metals: Chinas solar capacity is surging. The growth this year alone consumes about 11% of the worlds annual silver supply. And thats just China. What happens if the US and other major economies follow suit with similar expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1948485890050851276)  2025-07-24T20:50Z 260.6K followers, 35.5K engagements


"Important chart. Gold stocks vs. S&P [---] sectors We are likely only seeing the beginning of this outperformance in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1949524719352660122)  2025-07-27T17:38Z 261.2K followers, 33K engagements


"This chart is a great barometer for investment cycles in the mining industry: Where are we today in my view Early undervalued and ascent. H/t to my friend @ronstoeferle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1949987105838682312)  2025-07-29T00:15Z 261.2K followers, 35.4K engagements


"Both Powell and Trump are right in their own ways: Inflation is still a lingering issue but lowering rates is becoming less of a policy option and more of a fiscal necessity. Real interest rates need to fall and todays move in hard assets looks like short-term noise amid much deeper structural shifts in the US economy in my view. Fiscal dominance isnt a policy preference its an unavoidable reality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1950757846523506695)  2025-07-31T03:18Z 261.2K followers, 26.8K engagements


"In light of the recent pullback in copper prices this chart is worth revisiting. I know two types of investors. The ones who lean on conviction when prices fall versus the ones who lean on consensus when prices rise. Only one of these types tends to succeed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1951041051952902423)  2025-07-31T22:03Z 261.4K followers, 24.8K engagements


"ISM Employment has now dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic recession. Meanwhile: The unemployment rate has already broken above its 3-year moving average a signal that historically points to further weakness ahead in the labor market. Potential market implication: 2-year yields remain far too disconnected from the US fiscal reality and need to move significantly lower in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1951345264897470470)  2025-08-01T18:12Z 261.1K followers, 16K engagements


"The yen just recorded its biggest one-day gain against the US dollar since December [----] when the BoJ loosened its yield curve control and allowed 10-year yields to rise. This isnt just a one-off move in my view its part of a broader fiscal survival response. The reality is that both the US dollar and interest rates must to come down in my opinion. This kind of fiscal and monetary adjustment isnt optional its the last viable path to avoid the US economy hitting a debt wall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1951390643357622322)  2025-08-01T21:12Z 261.4K followers, 21K engagements


"Another big day for mining stocks particularly relative to metal prices. The chart below is of course just a conceptual illustration but we may be approaching the early stages of the take-off phase in my view. Institutional interest is starting to build even as media coverage remains virtually nonexistent. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952494720598569168)  2025-08-04T22:19Z 261.9K followers, 47.3K engagements


"Private sector credit is surging in Argentina much like it did in the early 2000s just before emerging markets kicked off a long-term bull cycle. Whats unfolding there is genuinely fascinating. The country is quickly becoming a standout especially in Latin America where several nations may soon see inflows into their commodity-driven economies though without the same kind of structural political shifts at least for now. Plenty of people still dismiss this idea but Argentinas progress is starting to feel contagious its likely only a matter of time before others follow suit in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952726968354603376)  2025-08-05T13:42Z 261.6K followers, 24.3K engagements


"If the DXY index breaks below this long-term support line it could mark the beginning of a meaningful downtrend in my view. For the record: I believe such a breakdown is both inevitable and unavoidable. You cant fix a severe trade imbalance with a stronger dollar and you certainly cant address a spiraling fiscal deficit by keeping financial conditions tight in my view. Some may argue that a reserve currency must run trade deficits but thats not the point here. The US economy simply cannot sustainably operate with a near double-digit twin deficit. Its a path to exponential deterioration and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952797164671037816)  2025-08-05T18:21Z 261.7K followers, 61.4K engagements


"What I find fascinating about macro is that these developments rarely happen all at once. Typically a few macro assets begin to move ahead of the broader shift in an entire asset class. In this case the euro appears to be acting as a potential leading indicator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952799931598815304)  2025-08-05T18:32Z 265.1K followers, [----] engagements


"The British pound also appears to be leading a broader move:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952800349292773900)  2025-08-05T18:34Z 265.2K followers, 15.2K engagements


"Meanwhile: I think the yen still has plenty of room to catch up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1952801172831780902)  2025-08-05T18:37Z 265.6K followers, 13.4K engagements


"And there goes Barrick now. Major breakout likely in the making in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953115934996218147)  2025-08-06T15:28Z 266.7K followers, 96.5K engagements


"Its striking to see a principal economist at the Federal Reserve publishing on the subject of gold revaluation. For context: The Fed hasnt publicly addressed or released any material on this topic in modern timesuntil now. This piece reveals a move toward concrete accounting steps and serious policy deliberations aiming to possibly revalue US gold reserves in response to growing fiscal pressures. The last U.S. gold revaluation occurred in the 1930s under Roosevelts exit from the gold standard a decision driven by the Treasury not the Federal Reserve. While the paper presents gold revaluation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953230872599249395)  2025-08-06T23:05Z 261.7K followers, 65.2K engagements


"There goes the largest silver mining company in North America. Major breakout likely in the making as well in my view. Silver miners are starting to move from what continues to be historically undervalued levels. Meanwhile: Silver prices are also again approaching $40 and likely to re-test its prior highs in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953465465139085758)  2025-08-07T14:37Z 266.9K followers, 41.7K engagements


"Silver miners are leading today and beginning to outperform the metal itself. Skeptics are quick to point out the downside leverage in mining stocks but theyre now being reminded that the same leverage works powerfully on the upside too. As Ive said before this feels like the very early innings of a "Golden Age for Mining." Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953537779553415177)  2025-08-07T19:24Z 262.3K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Game on. Gold 100oz futures just hit an all time high of $3534 after news that 1kg/100oz bars will be tariffed https://t.co/zscswRn3Fo Gold 100oz futures just hit an all time high of $3534 after news that 1kg/100oz bars will be tariffed https://t.co/zscswRn3Fo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953642460728766696)  2025-08-08T02:20Z 261.7K followers, 39.2K engagements


"Fascinating: Gold prices have been flat since April [--] but precious metals exploration stocks are up 30%. Its not a real bull market until explorers start getting some love. Explorers usually amplify the trends they suffer the most in downturns but also tend to soar the most in upswings. I believe were likely entering the bull phase of the cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1953931589534331221)  2025-08-08T21:29Z 262.3K followers, 35.3K engagements


"It's interesting to see some people claim inflation is slowing. The equal-weighted commodities index is up 12% in the past year. Thats real-world inflation. Meanwhile US money supply just hit a new high and the dollar is weakening sharply against other currencies including emerging markets. Inflation is far from contained in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1954176262039363870)  2025-08-09T13:41Z 262.2K followers, 69.7K engagements


"An important reminder: Every day metals stay this high relative to energy prices mining margins thrive. Investors are just starting to notice as companies keep posting results well above analyst expectations. We have likely entered a true "Golden Age of Mining" in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1954629761868968043)  2025-08-10T19:43Z 262K followers, 58.6K engagements


"To put it plainly: This is a government-enforced royalty and its a retreat from the capitalist framework that historically distinguished the US from other economies in my view. If you think this is a one-off event you're likely underestimating the situation. Theres nothing novel about this kind of government intervention its a pattern seen repeatedly in emerging markets. This often marks the initial move toward increased government control where private companies are effectively pressured into forming state-owned companies and similar arrangements. BREAKING: Nvidia $NVDA and AMD $AMD have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1954718190065557625)  2025-08-11T01:35Z 262K followers, 46.1K engagements


"Inflation expectations are rising while the share of investors who believe short-term rates should be higher is near record lows. In a normal market this setup would lead me to expect short-term rates to rise. But in todays environmentmarked by an urgent push for fiscal dominance Id rather have a constructive view on hard assets. The combination of rising inflation and suppressed interest rates is one of the most powerful drivers for hard assets in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1955410571777675389)  2025-08-12T23:26Z 262.3K followers, 24.1K engagements


"US federal debt officially crossed $37 trillion today. That is an increase of nearly $800 billion since the debt ceiling was raised in early July. Fiscal dominance is both inevitable and unavoidable in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1955654519825879178)  2025-08-13T15:35Z 265.4K followers, 42.6K engagements


"In the story of emerging markets today belongs to Chile. Chilean stocks are breaking out this month potentially marking the early stages of a secular bull market in my view. The countrys economy is heavily tied to copper prices making it a key player in the broader commodities cycle. These arent isolated movestheyre part of a larger sequence. Gold led the way a few years ago followed by mining companies and other metals and now I believe the next wave is building in emerging markets. All of this is unfolding as the US dollar teeters on the edge of breaking a critical historical support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1955731032906576312)  2025-08-13T20:39Z 262.3K followers, 32.9K engagements


"Of course he thinks the BOJ is behind the curve. The US desperately needs other central banks to tighten their monetary policies to help devalue the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the BOJ's cautious approach to raising interest rates saying it was falling "behind the curve": Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/wMM1ghKW2B US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the BOJ's cautious approach to raising interest rates saying it was falling "behind the curve": Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/wMM1ghKW2B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1956024252458574249)  2025-08-14T16:04Z 262.1K followers, 21.9K engagements


"With inflation data coming in hotter than expected a quick reminder: inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. You dont solve it with a 7% fiscal deficit and a money supply hitting record highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1956132609882501337)  2025-08-14T23:15Z 262.3K followers, 46.9K engagements


"The story of the week was the re-emergence of inflation. The question now is whether this was a one-off print or the early signs of a genuine resurgence in prices. Ill leave you with one chart: ISM Services PMI Prices vs. Core CPI. Historically the former leads the latter by roughly [--] months. If that pattern holds I would make two observations: Near term: The Fed may have grounds to keep rates steady despite markets pricing in a 90%+ probability of cuts. My view markets wont like that. Long term: Once Trump secures a majority of Fed governors aligned with him rate cuts could come regardless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1956456862607675602)  2025-08-15T20:43Z 263.1K followers, 34.6K engagements


"South American politics are leaning more pro-business. This time was Bolivia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1957270534988709892)  2025-08-18T02:37Z 262.3K followers, 22K engagements


"Silver is now up double digits while gold has slipped slightly since April [--]. Were beginning to see gold derivatives outperform the metal itself and exploration companies have climbed roughly 30% over the same period. This suggests investors are growing more comfortable moving further up the risk curve within monetary metals and earlier-stage mining companies. These are clear signs that we are likely entering a long-term bull market for mining in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1957570022454489156)  2025-08-18T22:27Z 263.1K followers, 40.6K engagements


"The Magnificent [--] have never been this expensive as a group on a free cash flow basis. Add to that the substantial infrastructure spending ahead which will come at the cost of materially weakening their balance sheets. In my view valuations will need to see a significant compression"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1958178278784508298)  2025-08-20T14:44Z 263.1K followers, 21.4K engagements


"The probability of rate cuts has already fallen by nearly [--] percentage points yet still hovers around 70%. In my view expectations are likely to shift further from near-certainty of cuts to none at all. To be clear this is not supportive for risk assets. That said over the next [--] months: The Fed may still be compelled to ease particularly as Trump secures a majority of supportive governors. Meanwhile inflation remains unresolved consumer prices keep rising and policymakers are likely to be compelled into easing not by choice but by necessity. The result is a powerful mix: sticky inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1958599395626057891)  2025-08-21T18:37Z 262.4K followers, 23K engagements


"Sometimes I stop and think how absurd it is to claim inflation is decelerating while the government runs a 7% fiscal deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1958652611197841734)  2025-08-21T22:09Z 264.3K followers, 112.3K engagements


"This happened today. Gold miners just broke out relative to gold prices. In many ways this cycle is only just beginning in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1958986295818297738)  2025-08-22T20:15Z 264.7K followers, 109.4K engagements


"Were seeing the most bearish positioning in oil in [--] years. And in case youre wondering: Yes Im the most bullish on oil and energy companies that Ive been in years. Commodities often move in rotational cycles and after three years of consolidation I believe oil and the broader energy sector are setting up for another major move especially given todays macro environment. With inflation re-accelerating this is in my view one of the most exciting segments of the market. Needless to say these remain among the most fundamentally undervalued businesses in the US economy. Im excited about what I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1959215241679495262)  2025-08-23T11:24Z 266.1K followers, 68.8K engagements


"Thats effectively stripping ownership from other investors or crony capitalism. When it happens in emerging markets the region gets condemned. When it happens in the US its applauded. Its interesting how the key structural distinctions between the US and emerging markets are slowly disappearing. BIG NEWS: The United States of America now owns 10% of Intel one of our great American technology companies. This historic agreement strengthens U.S. leadership in semiconductors which will both grow our economy and help secure Americas technological edge. Thanks to Intel https://t.co/AYMuX14Rgi BIG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1959269615877386552)  2025-08-23T15:00Z 263.9K followers, 52.6K engagements


"A private equity deal means injecting capital into Intel for equity at market value not investor dilution at a zero valuation. Zero. State ownership might suit your politics today but governments change ownership structures dont. And believing Intel wasnt under pressure Lets not be naive here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1959327288559870072)  2025-08-23T18:50Z 262.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Our latest research piece: https://www.crescat.net/americas-twin-deficit-trap/ https://www.crescat.net/americas-twin-deficit-trap/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1959757252996300877)  2025-08-24T23:18Z 263.5K followers, 14.9K engagements


"Disclosure: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing carries risk including risk of loss. Net performance shown includes the effect of fees and expenses. Please see additional important disclosure information here: https://www.crescat.net/due-diligence/disclosures/ https://www.crescat.net/due-diligence/disclosures/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1960087489974276393)  2025-08-25T21:10Z 264.3K followers, 11.7K engagements


"This is what I think everyone is missing: At some point a new political party will come into power it's inevitable. The question is: How will government involvement in these companies evolve under new leadership Administrations will change but these equity stakes won't. This could lead us down a dangerous path one weve seen before in less stable or less developed economies. Trump Pentagon is 'thinking' about taking equity stakes in defense contractors says Lutnick https://t.co/dWydXdj2tN Trump Pentagon is 'thinking' about taking equity stakes in defense contractors says Lutnick"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1960329394406437044)  2025-08-26T13:12Z 264K followers, 27.8K engagements


"This chart is fascinating. While the fiscal deficit gets most of the attention the trade imbalance is just as severe worse than any time since the 1800s except briefly during the global financial crisis. Todays issue by contrast is structural not cyclical. For the first time the US is running twin deficits while government debt has reached extreme levels and the dollar stands at one of its most overvalued levels in history. This combination is unsustainable. Something must serve as the outlet for these pressures and the most likely escape valve is the dollar itself. So far this year the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1960422745063481758)  2025-08-26T19:22Z 264.3K followers, 22.5K engagements


"Meanwhile: Miners are enjoying some of their best profit margins ever at these gold price. Remarkably many of these companies still trade as if gold were priced around $2000. A significant re-rating is likely still ahead of us in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1961498469882798115)  2025-08-29T18:37Z 266.8K followers, 83.6K engagements


"Silvers quiet weekly close above the key $40 level its first in more than [--] years is one of the most important yet underappreciated macro developments of this week in my view. All eyes are on golds breakout and rightly so but silvers move is a critical signal that may be pointing to what comes next: a potential retest of prior highs. Game on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1961802442909377016)  2025-08-30T14:45Z 265.8K followers, 153.8K engagements


"Fascinating. This is the first time I can remember Big Macs costing more in developed economies than in developing ones. Thats a notable shift. At its core this offers a snapshot of how the cost of living compares across countries. Those who travel more frequently in particular will recognize just how expensive the US has become relative to much of the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1962597737486295214)  2025-09-01T19:25Z 265.8K followers, 33.8K engagements


"Meanwhile: The gold miners ETF has just reached record levels in assets under management a strong signal of renewed interest in the sector. For those wondering where we are in the mining cycle: Even though precious metals mining stocks have performed well over the past year their performance relative to gold suggests we could still be early in the move. The gold miners-to-gold ratio is still nearly 60% below its [----] highs. I wouldnt be surprised to see those levels re-tested and probably go well beyond them as this cycle plays out. This is just my perspective but for mining investors I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1963269822453583977)  2025-09-03T15:56Z 266.3K followers, 52.9K engagements


"2-year yields approach multi year lows as commodities approach all time highs. This is the environment were in. Cut rates to service debt. Let inflation run hotter. Higher commodity prices are the release valve in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1963660527357645074)  2025-09-04T17:48Z 266.3K followers, 35.2K engagements


"Never forget the strongest trends often start in silence: The largest silver miner in North America has just broken out above a resistance level thats held for [--] years. This may appear company-specific yet I believe it may signal something far bigger for the overall mining industry. If I had to sum it up this is perhaps the most exciting juncture for precious metals in my career in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1964306287073579078)  2025-09-06T12:34Z 266.3K followers, 105.4K engagements


"What may seem like one of the most illogical moves to many looks highly compelling to me in todays macro environment. The goal isnt to be contrarian for its own sake but to pursue a thesis that is fundamentally strong and widely under-owned. That to me defines EM today. In addition to rising commodity prices two key forces drive these economies: a weaker dollar and suppressed US yields. Both seem likely ahead in my view given the scale of the debt burden and the structural twin deficits we now face"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1964667657942409589)  2025-09-07T12:30Z 267.6K followers, 69.7K engagements


"This is a real-time Mar-a-Lago Accord" in my view: The strategy of letting global yields rise relative to US yields is central to weakening the dollar. What some see as a market shift I see as policy a clear move toward dollar devaluation. The implications extend further especially for emerging markets which I believe stand to benefit significantly from this environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1965557833463988478)  2025-09-09T23:28Z 266.2K followers, 67.6K engagements


"Weve just returned from a week packed with meetings with mining companies and investors. And the most common question I heard: Are mining stocks in a bubble Anyone seriously asking this hasnt lived through or studied a real mining cycle in my view. The ratio of junior-to senior mining stocks is still 54% below its [----] peak. If anything I believe were just at the beginning of this cycle. Get ready I think were in for a uniquely positive period in this industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1967698427845939694)  2025-09-15T21:13Z 267.7K followers, 112.9K engagements


"@Josh_Young_1 Yes. Any mining company not hedging energy cost in this environment is fighting against history in my view. Gold/oil & silver/oil ratios dont stay at these elevated levels for long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1967804115951722653)  2025-09-16T04:13Z 265.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Banana republic. None of us own enough hard assets S&P 500: All-time high NASDAQ: All-time high GOLD: All-time high BITCOIN: All-time high HOME PRICES: All-time high Time for the Fed to cut rates. https://t.co/mhOIcjK89m S&P 500: All-time high NASDAQ: All-time high GOLD: All-time high BITCOIN: All-time high HOME PRICES: All-time high Time for the Fed to cut rates. https://t.co/mhOIcjK89m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1967987741465174205)  2025-09-16T16:23Z 267.4K followers, 42.2K engagements


"No one seems to be looking at this but energy stocks continue to make a move. Quiet breakouts are always more powerful in my view. For reference: Energy stocks are quietly breaking out. https://t.co/uXZgma50aw For reference: Energy stocks are quietly breaking out. https://t.co/uXZgma50aw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1968439463727530258)  2025-09-17T22:18Z 267.6K followers, 83.6K engagements


"When you consider that the Feds preferred inflation gauge is not only near 3% but also inflecting higher this rate cut was more than a policy change it was a statement. This is no longer monetary policy; its fiscal necessity. The Feds latest unspoken mandate is to ease the governments debt burden. To be clear this isnt meant as criticism of policymakers; Im not sure they have much choice at this point. The real story here is the US dollar: As weak as it appears the DXY is sitting on a 14-year support level that in my view looks ready to break. The dollar anchors global assets and on a 10-year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1968872052682834271)  2025-09-19T02:57Z 268.3K followers, 59.3K engagements


"India's silver imports have soared to record highs over the past three years. Much like the trend we've seen with gold this shift deserves close attention. Central banks are the next logical major buyers of silver in my view. Yes this trend has already begun but were likely just getting started"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1969060371186225268)  2025-09-19T15:25Z 268.1K followers, [----] engagements


"$44 With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1970080293836210564)  2025-09-22T10:58Z 268K followers, 61.1K engagements


"Major macro trends tend to be confirmed by decisive multi-year breakouts. The mining stocks-to-gold ratio appears to be doing just that. Despite the recent strength: We're still more than 70% below the highs from [--] years ago. This could mark the beginning of the institutional phase of the cycle where patient capital starts positioning for long-duration exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1970309410171019614)  2025-09-23T02:09Z 268K followers, [----] engagements


"Rig activity tends to lead oil production and the current trend is hard to ignore. In the Permian Basin the largest oil-producing region in the US active rigs have dropped nearly 30% since April [----]. While many attribute this to improved efficiency and thats partly true the scale of this pullback is becoming too steep to ignore. In my view its only a matter of time before production plateaus or even begins to decline. From a market perspective this is a bullish setup for energy commodities and oil & gas companies in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1970661132089336160)  2025-09-24T01:26Z 270.7K followers, 219.4K engagements


"$45 With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1971187406226575708)  2025-09-25T12:17Z 269.2K followers, 68.4K engagements


"$46 With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1971585049444434361)  2025-09-26T14:38Z 269.5K followers, 81.4K engagements


"Let me phrase this more appropriately: Over the past [--] months there have been [---] rate cuts by central banks worldwide yet the US dollar still experienced its worst performance since the 1970s. We're in the early stages of a multi-year decline in the US currency in my view. The recent consolidation in the DXY after testing a 14-year support level may be creating confusion among investors but I believe the long-term outlook remains firmly in place. This global shift away from US-centric assets is a trend I wouldnt bet against"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1971937708978459029)  2025-09-27T13:59Z 269.5K followers, 56.6K engagements


"$47 With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ With just [--] days left in the quarter silver is on track to post its highest quarterly close in history. If this closing level holds it could mark a major technical breakout cup-and-handle formations like this often precede sharp sustained moves once all-time highs are https://t.co/jQC3t8zywZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1972519273139753380)  2025-09-29T04:30Z 269.2K followers, 58.9K engagements


"$48 It's official. Silver just reached its highest quarterly close in history. Game on. https://t.co/ott3YLS4MJ It's official. Silver just reached its highest quarterly close in history. Game on. https://t.co/ott3YLS4MJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1974157903864197292)  2025-10-03T17:01Z 269.6K followers, 51.7K engagements


"Cash is trash *TRUMP: YOU GROW YOURSELF OUT OF DEBT *TRUMP: YOU GROW YOURSELF OUT OF DEBT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1975381400791728355)  2025-10-07T02:03Z 269.9K followers, 45K engagements


"The government is buying mining companies left and right yet people still doubt that the US is the one driving gold demand and pushing prices to these levels. US to Take 10% Stake in Trilogy Metals to Unlock Alaska Mining https://t.co/bRZrQXlGZ5 US to Take 10% Stake in Trilogy Metals to Unlock Alaska Mining https://t.co/bRZrQXlGZ5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1975425497762046107)  2025-10-07T04:58Z 270.7K followers, 54.1K engagements


"Is the next 20% move in gold higher or lower in your view Higher Lower Higher Lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1979171241094168853)  2025-10-17T13:02Z 270.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Reading $SBUX 10k and evaluating its product quality http://t.co/Z1kdc38apo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/586644075283005440)  2015-04-10T21:37Z 235.3K followers, [--] engagements


"Agricultural commodities breaking out and just crept above 200DMA. Cost push inflation on the horizon. $DBA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/969323941897551872)  2018-03-01T21:30Z 235.3K followers, [--] engagements

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