#  @Suicide95518428 SuicideBlonde SuicideBlonde posts on X about $oke, $xom, $mplx, $paa the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +541% - [--] Month [------] +311% - [--] Months [-------] -21% - [--] Year [-------] -60% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +121% - [--] Month [--] -7.40% - [--] Months [---] +279% - [--] Year [-----] +94% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.20% - [--] Month [-----] +1.10% - [--] Months [-----] +2.90% - [--] Year [-----] +11% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 60% [finance](/list/finance) 38% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #5151 [countries](/list/countries) 10% [currencies](/list/currencies) 5% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 3% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 1% **Social topic influence** [$oke](/topic/$oke) #1, [$xom](/topic/$xom) 11%, [$mplx](/topic/$mplx) #1, [$paa](/topic/$paa) #1, [mplx](/topic/mplx) #1, [$orstedco](/topic/$orstedco) 10%, [$trgp](/topic/$trgp) #1, [$epd](/topic/$epd) #3, [$et](/topic/$et) #3, [ceo](/topic/ceo) 8% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@mailboxmoney6](/creator/undefined) [@nicequarterguys](/creator/undefined) [@rbl1973](/creator/undefined) [@crudechronicle](/creator/undefined) [@tomloughreylfe](/creator/undefined) [@harshmadhusudan](/creator/undefined) [@fcompounders](/creator/undefined) [@chrisxfra](/creator/undefined) [@war527](/creator/undefined) [@energypeddler](/creator/undefined) [@dalibali2](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@wolfofwalkerst](/creator/undefined) [@voltefaceinvest](/creator/undefined) [@engineersfeed](/creator/undefined) [@novilabs](/creator/undefined) [@rbnenergy](/creator/undefined) [@javierblas](/creator/undefined) [@sccath](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)](/topic/$oke) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [Metaplex (MPLX)](/topic/$mplx) [Plains All American Pipeline, LP. (PAA)](/topic/$paa) [MPLX LP (MPLX)](/topic/mplx) [Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)](/topic/$trgp) [Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD)](/topic/$epd) [Energy Transfer, LP. (ET)](/topic/$et) [Sun Token (SUN)](/topic/$sun) [Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)](/topic/$kmi) [Williams Companies Inc (WMB)](/topic/$wmb) [Magellan Midstream Partners, LP. (MMP)](/topic/$mmp) [Convex Finance (CVX)](/topic/$cvx) [Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)](/topic/$lng) [Hess Corp. (HES)](/topic/$hes) [BP p.l.c. (BP)](/topic/$bp) [NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)](/topic/$nee) [DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)](/topic/$dtm) [Western Midstream Partners, LP. (WES)](/topic/$wes) [Phillips [--] (PSX)](/topic/$psx) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)](/topic/$plug) [Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)](/topic/$mro) [Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP)](/topic/$ceqp) [ENLINK MIDSTREAM, LLC (ENLC)](/topic/$enlc) [O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)](/topic/$orly) [Partisia Blockchain (MPC)](/topic/$mpc) [Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)](/topic/$vlo) [Autozone Inc (AZO)](/topic/$azo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Q3'25 Energy Midstream earnings recap (+/- vs. Consensus): $EPD -3.5% $MPLX +0.9% $PAA -1.3% $ET -3.3% $WES +3.2% $SUN -1.3% $KMI -0.1% $WMB +0.1% $OKE +0.4% $TRGP +5.4% $LNG -3.3% $DTM +1.9% $TRP.TO -0.5% $ENB.TO -0.5% $PPL.TO +2.0% $KEY.TO -6.7% $GEI.TO -1.3% $SOBO.TO +3.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2001651275939873234) 2025-12-18T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$EPD reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $2707 mm beating Consensus by 5.6% Guiding to Net CAPEX of $2.7 billion for [----] (incl. asset sales of $600 mm) With EBITDA = $10.5 bn Interest = $1.5 bn Net CAPEX = $2.7 bn FCF for [----] should be $6.3 bn or 9% FCF yield on the stock" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2018666771608444949) 2026-02-03T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "3/13 Starting with $KMI between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $15 billion EBITDA = $400 $600 million Return = 2.7% to 4.0% Return for the [----] to [----] period = 0% to 1.6% Improving trajectory for sure.let's see if this can continue" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071255516983621) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/13 Long overdue annual update on Midstream returns on capital deployed. Period covered: [----] to [----] Companies Covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Last year's Analysis/Thread below for reference: https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094278809788684s=20 1/15 A year ago I wrote a thread examining the capital allocation decisions of US Midstream companies between [----] and [----]. It is time to update the figures for [----] Companies covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Period Covered: 2018-2023 https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094278809788684s=20" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071250177855814) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, 25.7K engagements "12/13 Evolution of returns shown in Table below" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071284663353747) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/15 A year ago I wrote a thread examining the capital allocation decisions of US Midstream companies between [----] and [----]. It is time to update the figures for [----] Companies covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Period Covered: 2018-2023" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094278809788684) 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, 80.7K engagements "4/13 Looking at $OKE next b/w [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $41.9 billion (includes $ENLC purchase which closed in Q1'25) EBITDA = $5.8 to $6.0 billion Return = 13.8% to 14.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 11.5% to 12.1% Looks like $MMP synergies are coming through" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071259061358840) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "9/13 Now for $ET - the biggest of them all. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $62.3 billion (incl. NuStar purchase by $SUN) EBITDA = $4.8 to $5.2 billion Return = 7.7% to 8.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 10.7% to 11.6% Competition hurting base business esp. Permian" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071275310055650) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "13/13 $TRGP and $LNG are tops $WMB and $OKE - strong returns despite high M&A activity - indicates good synergy capture $ET and $EPD - Disappointing drop in returns - perhaps undercutting each other $MPLX - Solid but recent M&A bears watching $KMI - Improving $PAA - Weak" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071287234462076) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/6 $PAA has announced the sale of its Canadian NGL business to Keyera ( $KEY.TO ) for US$3.75 billion The valuation is 8.5x estimated [----] EBITDA ($440 mm) Since the business is a Canadian tax-payer the effective cash flow multiple is 12.9x https://ir.plains.com/static-files/3a0cfc25-eef9-4dcf-a6d0-39e0cb939156 https://ir.plains.com/static-files/3a0cfc25-eef9-4dcf-a6d0-39e0cb939156" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1935122007357903052) 2025-06-17T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TRGP reports Q3'25 EBITDA of $1275 mm - beating Consensus by 5.4% Recommends a 25% hike to the dividend starting next year CAPEX for [----] creeps higher to $3.3 billion (was $3 billion) - new processing plants/pipes announced I like $TRGP a lot but more CAPEX at $60 WTI C'mon" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1986067764629393692) 2025-11-05T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Change of guard at Western Midstream ( $WES ) Mr. Oscar Brown replaces Mr. Michael Ure as CEO Interesting quote from PR: "The Board identified Mr. Brown as the ideal CEO to lead the Partnership's next chapter" Is a sale of $WES the purported "next chapter"" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1851022768382370154) 2024-10-28T22:06Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements "1/4 So it is $PAA that ends up buying 55% of the [---] kbbl/d EPIC Crude Pipeline Price tag: $1.57 billion incl. $600 mm of assumed debt I'm not happy. They've found ways to spend money even before the proceeds from the Canada NGL can come through https://x.com/MLPguy/status/1960377830493085917 Who buys EPIC crude pipeline https://x.com/MLPguy/status/1960377830493085917 Who buys EPIC crude pipeline" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1962911280508919946) 2025-09-02T16:11Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "@harshmadhusudan Arent you overcomplicating this A real GDP growth rate of 6% and inflation of 3% means nominal GDP growth of 9%. Compounding $4.2 trillion for [--] years at 9% gives us $36 trillion" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2008453841981944083) 2026-01-06T08:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@VolteFaceInvest I just want Mr. Oscar Brown to stick to his banker knitting and sell the company for $45-$50/unit to (say) $OKE or $KMI (someone like that)" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2018354549438763035) 2026-02-02T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@F_Compounders $ORLY (same biz. as $AZO ) $MPC & $VLO (Refining)" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2020948676110319776) 2026-02-09T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/13 Methodology: a) Compute EBITDA b/w Q3'25 & Q3'18 b) Annualize change in (a) = cumulative EBITDA growth c) Calculate Total Capital Deployed b/w [----] and [----] = CAPEX + Acquisitions (incl. stock-for-stock) - Divestitures Return = Annualized EBITDA Capital Deployed" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071252916421035) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ChrisXFRA Great assets obviously but also limited balance sheet capacity to do anything meaningful besides blocking and tackling. I think there was a time shortly after the spin when it was unduly depressed. My sense is that the easy money has been made in the name. It's a good M&A target" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021269690488603073) 2026-02-10T17:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MPLX reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $1804 mm exceeding Consensus by 1% Guiding [----] CAPEX of $2.4 billion [----] FCF will fall short of Distributions by about $600 mm: EBITDA = $7.2 bn Interest = $1.1 bn CAPEX = $2.4 bn FCF = $3.7 bn vs. Dist. $4.3 bn" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018662975897534550) 2026-02-03T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5/13 Next up $LNG. Between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $16 billion EBITDA = $4.0 to $4.2 billion Return = 25.0% to 26.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 26.2% to 29.2% Continued weakening of TTF & JKL pricing has reduced marketing margins" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071262316151044) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6/13 Let's check $WMB next. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $20.7 billion EBITDA = $2.8 to $3.0 billion Return = 13.5% to 14.5% Return during 2018-2023 = 12.0% to 13.3% Nice comeback in returns - driven by projects coming online especially Deepwater GoM" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071265780670728) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "11/13 Finally let's look at $PAA. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $6 billion EBITDA = $100 mm to $200 mm Return = 1.7% to 3.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 0.0% to 2.2% Slight improvement but a long way to go still" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071281429610853) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "3/15 Let's begin with $KMI. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $12.4 billion Change in EBITDA = $0 to $200 million Return on Investment = 0% to 1.6% Return for the [----] to [----] period was = -1.2% to +1.2% Marginal improvement at best. Lots of wood to chop" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094282291053054) 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "4/15 Next up $OKE. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $30.5 billion (incl. $MMP acquisition) Change in EBITDA = $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion Return on Investment = 11.5% to 12.1% Return for 2018-2022 = 15.8% to 17.8% Unsurprisingly large-scale M&A hurts ROICs" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094284937646120) 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "8/15 Turning to MLPs let's begin with $EPD. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $22.8 billion Change in EBITDA = $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion Return = 8.8% to 9.6% Return for 2018-2022 = 8.2% to 9.2% ROIC starting to improve Can they get above 10.0% next year" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094293858873807) 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Five years ago this day: Not in my wildest dreams did I think that the returns would be as spectacular $TRGP: +2913% $MPLX: +674% $OKE: +587% $PAA: +427% $PPL.TO: +236% $MMP: +414% (chained w/ $OKE since 9/23) $PSXP: +149% (chained w/ $PSX since 3/22) https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641 It looks really bad in Midstream-land. But buying the following names now is likely to result in some big winners. $PAA $MPLX $MMP $PSXP $TRGP $PPL.TO $OKE https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641 It looks really bad in Midstream-land. But buying the following names now is" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1902712728696897934) 2025-03-20T13:23Z [----] followers, 31.1K engagements "7/13 Let's finish the C-corps with $TRGP. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $20 billion (incl. purchase of Badlands stake from Blackstone) EBITDA = $3.6 to $3.8 billion Return = 18.0% to 19.0% Return during 2018-2023 = 18.0% to 19.3% Maintaining strong returns" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071269215781308) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "8/13 Turning to MLPs first up $EPD. Between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $28.1 billion EBITDA = $2.0 to $2.2 billion Return = 7.1% to 7.8% Return during 2018-2023 = 8.8% to 9.6% All is not well in the base business - more competition in the Permian" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071271866310879) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "10/13 Next let's look at $MPLX. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $25.6 billion EBITDA = $3.2 to $3.4 billion Return = 12.5% to 13.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 12.4% to 13.2% Returns holding steady but acquisitions jumped in [----]. So let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2021071278694949127) 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PAA reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $738 mm - missing Consensus of $758 mm by 2.6% [----] EBITDA Guidance = $2.75 billion - more or less inline w/Consensus Leverage at 3.9x - above target range - expected to come down post-NGL biz. sale .Not a barnburner" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2019795460223840397) 2026-02-06T15:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@engineers_feed Spend as much time in makerspaces as possible. Try to make things you read about in textbooks and test them out. Learn as many hands-on skills as possible. And no matter your major: study Thermodynamics and Fluid Mechanics - dont graduate w/o those two" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2022301294812152008) 2026-02-13T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TomLoughrey_LFE @WAR527 @mailboxmoney6 @NiceQuarterGuys If you have a proclivity for zero debt youve already won half the battle as an E&P CEO" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1996707298941468896) 2025-12-04T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@EnergyPeddler Helped by the 44% allocation to $XOM & $CVX and their cost-reduction/CAPEX reduction announcements. Crazy that people still fall for the "profitable at $50/bbl" narrative" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1999176847557591137) 2025-12-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WAR527 @novilabs @RBNEnergy If this is even half-correct $OKE will keep minting money on their Elk Creek and Bakken pipelines for a looooong time" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2000700856358916589) 2025-12-15T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JavierBlas Called it two years ago.probably took the board some time to decide between putting $BP up for sale vs. staying independent. https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg O'Neill https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2001648452846161944) 2025-12-18T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sc_cath Another reason why preserving the solvency and sanctity of the social security system is paramount" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2008257396918153249) 2026-01-05T19:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KiranKS It will be $300 billion for every 1% increase in the cost of funding. It could also be a benefit if the new interest rate is lower than before. Your post is incomplete" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2009137065016050170) 2026-01-08T05:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@prakdadlani Please dont get taken in by posts like those by Manoj Arora. They are at best ill-informed. Indias CA deficit is generally 1.8% of GDP Much of the deficit is due to gold imports and oil. To become a Mfg. powerhouse (Bharats dream) we need to import capital goods" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2011505583414001706) 2026-01-14T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Iyervval Possibly because the President is unhappy about the renewed hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia - a peace that he had brokered" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2011507055149068722) 2026-01-14T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EnergyPeddler Said pods were long $APP $INTU $ORCL $AVGO and possibly $V and $MA Said pods were short - what else - Energy" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2011510972683284793) 2026-01-14T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@kushal_mehra India has many cards. Did you not see that they had raised tariffs on American pulses to 30% effective Nov 1st Best to keep quiet and do things behind the scenes" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2012755368078692672) 2026-01-18T05:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@amitgupta0310 Like they say if you cant take the heat get out of the kitchen. The markets off about 5% from recent highs and trading at a robust valuation and you are here whining" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2013582203494515071) 2026-01-20T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@harshmadhusudan Canada had floating exchange rates b/w [----] and [----] and then again from [----]. Their experience demonstrated the viability of floating exchange rates and inspired Robert Mundell to study exchange rate mechanisms and optimum currency areas" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2015750034155765941) 2026-01-26T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TigerTrader41 Stock still trading at 28x [----] EBITDA. So theres that. $ORSTED.CO trading at 15x [----]. So if $PLUG converges to $ORSTED.CO were looking at a price of $11 or so" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1391885175248859142) 2021-05-10T22:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@LOWO64 I am torn between $MPLX and $TRGP A bit concerned that both are continuing to spend money despite a weak crude tape. But I must confess that $TRGP has executed marvelously this year (so far). $MPLX seems to be going steady as well - just wish theyd pull back on Capex" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1990229707476901991) 2025-11-17T01:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@F_Compounders $V & $MA $FDX & $UPS $KO & $PEP $ADP & $PAYX $HD & $LOW" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2013584093817065869) 2026-01-20T12:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@chesscom Lol. Carlsen is NOT the greatest of all time. The clown needed rapid games to retain the title against Caruana and Karjakin. Kasparov is the GOAT or perhaps Bobby Fischer. Carlsen doesnt even make it to the top-3 of all time" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2016376465399677255) 2026-01-28T05:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dalibali2 @CapitalObserver $300 billion of revenue looks very optimistic. It doesnt look like $ORCLs businesses besides Cloud Infra are growing much at all. Also not much evidence yet of margin improvement. If everything goes right were looking at a 16.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY 2029" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1966342182895239531) 2025-09-12T03:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So it looks like skepticism around the euphoria in $ORCL that erupted [--] months ago was very much justified. Delayed AI benefit + burgeoning debt have taken this POS from $340 to $190 in just a quarter.wow https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1966342182895239531s=20 @dalibali2 @CapitalObserver $300 billion of revenue looks very optimistic. It doesnt look like $ORCLs businesses besides Cloud Infra are growing much at all. Also not much evidence yet of margin improvement. If everything goes right were looking at a 16.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY 2029." [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1999141538111037824) 2025-12-11T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Shares of $ORSTED.CO 20% on impairments of $2.3 bn on US Offshore Wind projects. "The situation in U.S. offshore wind is severe" CEO Mads Nipper said Supply chain issues unfavorable discussions re: addl. tax credits and interest rates cited. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmarks-orsted-anticipates-730-mln-impact-us-portfolio-2023-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmarks-orsted-anticipates-730-mln-impact-us-portfolio-2023-08-29/" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1696819522785751485) 2023-08-30T09:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BobMarl42515340 @JerryCap It is a question of who is less bad. Personally I have found the management teams at $PPL.TO $KEY.TO and $GEI.TO to be less harmful to the equity-holders' cause. $TRP.TO and $ENB.TO have been a bit more detrimental to equity-holders' cause" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709036226752176444) 2023-10-03T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PPL.TO reported Q1'24 EBITDA of C$1044 mm beating Consensus view of C$999 mm by 4.5% Dividend raised by 3.4% Debt/EBITDA = 3.4x Well-run company with strong balance sheet and interesting project slate - Cedar LNG Peace Phase VIII RFS IV etc. Investor Day on May 16th" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1788742126550802760) 2024-05-10T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "3/5 The implied multiple of 8.5x looks reasonable. If $PSX can grow the business as they claim in their PR then that multiple should improve. $PSX has a considerable Midstream business (legacy DCP Midstream + legacy $PSXP) and acquired assets fit well with their CP-Chem biz" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1876662365506474247) 2025-01-07T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TRGP reported Q2'25 EBITDA of $1163 million which was 1.2% better than Consensus of $1149 million Full-year Guidance of $4.65 bn to $4.85 bn reiterated CAPEX raised by $300 mm While it's nice to see an earnings beat it's troubling to see the CAPEX creep" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1953446689404014892) 2025-08-07T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@blondesnmoney You could throw in $LVMUY compounder-bros $PYPL compounder-bros $NKE compounder-bros into the mix as well" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1962519465767141388) 2025-09-01T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@QuickDCapital @HalliBu78316368 @jendubayevans @EnronChairman Important to not let recency and survivorship biases affect thinking. $AAPL was near bankruptcy at one time. $IBM was as well. One can never say - disruptions happen all too often. There was a time $RIMM was lionized and the Razr was the hottest phone" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1337205167238864897) 2020-12-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I could be totally wrong but the higher the price of oil the worse it is for renewable energy companies like $ORSTED.CO $EDPR.LS $ES etc. Why Because the folks at $BP will have more cash to throw at the already anemic IRR projects" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1363942860005982213) 2021-02-22T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mailboxmoney6 Changes to the PSC brought on by political changes. That being said $XOM / $HES and $CNOOC are de facto US Govt and Govt of China respectively. Countries may feel they can poke the bear (US) and get away with it but I doubt they have the courage to poke the dragon (China)" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1552063480974671872) 2022-07-26T22:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@bibivanderzee It cost $3600/KW to build. And even using the inflation-adjusted tariff of $88/MWh the project delivers no more than a 5% return to its developer. You are being subsidized by $ORSTED.CO investors who are accepting a return well below market" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1566408358424371200) 2022-09-04T12:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Thepadre13 25% of the Stabroek block working interest is effectively Govt. of China ( $CNOOC ). Invaders will have to think twice about poking the dragon" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1620267052325044227) 2023-01-31T03:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There was a time c. [----] when $ORSTED.CO and $NEE were viewed as the energy giants of the future - supplanting $XOM $CVX et al. Perhaps these renewable names were nothing more than an aberration created by easy money policies and delusional government profligacy" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1696821351313441258) 2023-08-30T09:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "First $ORSTED.CO (stock 25%) & now $RWE.DE citing problems with offshore wind. Lets 🛑 pretending that these things are viable energy sources. They need interest rates tax credit regime and commodity prices. LCOE is a sham. https://x.com/Energy_Tidbits/status/1697080517345399060s=20 WOW Must read 👇RWE CEO post ". #OffshoreWind projects in EU & US have been stopped mainly citing cost increases" "worst case scenario for the #EnergyTransition when large projects that have already been awarded are not realised as planned" #NatGas needed for longer #OOTT https://t.co/fAHVt8GpPt" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1697133682098585943) 2023-08-31T06:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MMP - Magellan Investors Approve Oneoks $18.8 Billion Takeover (1) Deal to close in a couple of days. End of an era. $MMP IPO'd on 2/6/2001 and since then it has compounded at 18.45% p.a. vs. 7.32% for the S&P [---]. $OKE has been no slouch in that time either +14.00% p.a" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1704998464822616565) 2023-09-21T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What a legend this guy this. He has single-handedly maimed or killed many of these climate grift operations. $NEP $ORSTED.CO $PLUG $EVA $FCEL $AES $ENPH $SEDG Quite the body-count here. https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452s=20 JUST IN: FED Chair Jerome Powell says "just close the f*cking door" after climate protestors interrupt his speech. https://t.co/feDlOteRaz https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452s=20 JUST IN: FED Chair Jerome Powell says "just close the f*cking door" after climate protestors interrupt his speech. https://t.co/feDlOteRaz" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1722806935534084323) 2023-11-10T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "(10/17) Now for the serial-acquirer $ET Capital Deployed = $37.5 bn ($12.0 bn on acquisition of $SEMG and $ENBL) EBITDA Change = $3.6 bn to $4.0 bn Return = 9% to 11% Surprised on two counts: a) Impact of M&A not as bad as feared b) How are they ahead of $EPD" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1726871836796105179) 2023-11-21T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "(11/17) Next up $MPLX Capital Deployed = $22.2 bn (incl. $13 bn for $ANDX) EBITDA Change = $2.5 bn to $2.7 bn Return = 11% to 12% Solid returns Dented by the rather expensive $ANDX deal that (sector multiples have compressed since 2019)" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1726871841422352806) 2023-11-21T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/21 $HES - or more specifically their 30% Working Interest in Guyana position is at the center of the battle between $XOM and $CVX with the matter of $XOM's ROFR now in arbitration. I estimate $HES Guyana could be worth $30 to $32 billion. Let's see why/how. A (long) 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1765844188258570327) 2024-03-07T20:57Z [----] followers, 61.9K engagements "2/21 First: A review of the Guyana Production Sharing Contract 1) Royalty Rate of 2.00% 2) 75.00% Cost Oil Cap 3) 50.00% of Profit Oil to $XOM $HES $CNOOC collectively 4) Most Important: NO RING-FENCING" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1765844200619221308) 2024-03-07T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TommyDeepwater $XOM should look to acquire $GALP.LS for $15-$20 bn rather than try to match whatever $CVX thinks Stabroek is worth (c. $30 bn). It would be 30-50% cheaper to buy $GALP.LS and would diversify $XOMs risk than further concentrate it" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1766490792065929478) 2024-03-09T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TommyDeepwater 🙏 Much appreciated. Is there any way to get information on the fiscal terms in Namibia Royalty Cost Oil cap Profit Oil split between Govt. and operators (with R-factors if applicable) - not much info in $GALP.LS decks" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1766500772273955289) 2024-03-09T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rbl1973 @PATCHnHrd @CathieDWood If you thought Cathie Wood calling for the end of oil is hilarious what do you say about folks calling $ORSTED.CO and $NEE the new $XOM and $CVX This was shortly after $XOM got booted from the DJIA" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1779245288898654238) 2024-04-13T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rbl1973 @staunovo IMO $BPs DNA has mutated so much that turning it around will take more money than the costs you can cut by buying them. $SHEL should buy $GALP.LS and develop resources expand PetChem and hard as it sounds philosophically re-expand refining" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1784248447576515009) 2024-04-27T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rbl1973 @crudechronicle This effectively makes $HES untouchable. Whoever tries to buy them has to deal with the Stabroek ROFR. Only $XOM or $CNOOC could buy them" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1787907263073763601) 2024-05-07T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rbl1973 Arbiters to decide if transaction triggers $XOM / $CNOOC ROFR" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1834304734938702260) 2024-09-12T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JamieHeard5 Old enough to remember the time when $ORSTED.CO and $NEE were touted at the $XOM and $CVX of the Renewable Age" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1881437763721220477) 2025-01-20T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/10 Big transaction in Energy-land with $SUN acquiring Canada's Parkland ( $PKI.TO ) for US$10 billion in cash and stock plus: assumed debt. Deal Valuation = 7.8x [----] EBITDA or 6.6% FCF yield Here's some number-crunching" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411226339144057) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements "2/10 First let's look at standalone $PKI.TO numbers. I've used their MD&A for Q4'24 and a CAD/USD exchange rate of C$1.40 per USD I am using the low-end of their [----] EBITDA guidance for my analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411228956357072) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/10 Deal Consideration and Valuation (figures in USD and uses CAD-USD exch. rate = C$1.40/USD): $10 billion consideration - 53% Equity / 47% Debt Assumed 7.8x [----] EBITDA" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411233226207370) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5/10 The combined view of $SUN + $PKI.TO is shown below. Leverage worsens to 4.5x due to cash consideration on the deal. I assume only $100 mm in synergies and a cost of debt of debt of 6.5% on the incremental debt. Excess FCF available = $550 mm - nice jump" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411235184849407) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "8/10 Deal is prima facie accretive to $SUN given its higher pre-deal valuation of 9.0x EV/EBITDA vs. 7.8x EV/EBITDA for $PKI.TO Surplus FCF also jumps from $200 mm to $550 mm If we set Surplus FCF to $200 mm it would mean $SUN could pay $4.40/unit annually i.e 22% accretive" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411240876601429) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PAA reported Q2'25 EBITDA of $672 million which was exactly in-line with Consensus They acquired an additional stake in BridgeTex & now own 40% of the pipe Waiting on the sale of the Canadian NGL business to $KEY.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1953813188752912453) 2025-08-08T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "During the depths of the COVD lockdown and barely two weeks post Biden's election (hopes of IRA) Bloomberg ran an article that was effusive in its praise of $ORSTED.CO and fellow renewable players - calling them the new super-majors. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-renewable-energy-supermajors/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-renewable-energy-supermajors/" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1955055179432092007) 2025-08-11T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/2 Quick update on the $MPLX announcement to divest their Rockies gathering (acquired via the $ANDX deal) to Harvest Midstream $1.0 billion for [---] bcf/d of processing capacity operating at 52% I estimate EBITDA to be $90 mm ($0.70/mcf fee $0.30/mcf Opex) - so about 11x" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1960882230315663745) 2025-08-28T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@rbl1973 In general $COP has been decent at acquiring. $SHEL Permian assets $CXO Oil Sands from $TTE and finally $MRO Their investments in Alaska Qatar and US LNG are also decent Only problem: Debt-fueled buybacks when oil was $100/bbl" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1964031484181778528) 2025-09-05T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BigIdeasCapital @TomLoughrey_LFE @mailboxmoney6 @NiceQuarterGuys Lmao. Clearly you havent come across the following terms: Kashagan = Cash all gone Gorgon = More (cash) gone Tengiz = Ten gazillion dollars As for $OXY they first offloaded crappy assets and loads of debt on to $CRC and then proceeded to nearly bankrupt themselves with $APC" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1997186657431273634) 2025-12-06T06:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rumor has it that $IPL.TO had a C$30/share buyout offer and the turned it down. Stock at C$23 or so after a 9% move today. Company in the midst of a massive petchem buildout with nearly 6x leverage. Why on earth would someone turn a buyout offer at c. 45% premium" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1159574105357791243) 2019-08-08T21:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SadBillAckman Assuming you are referencing $KEY.TO - question becomes who If $PPL.TO is successful in its bid for $IPL.TO we are left with $ENB.TO $TRP.TO $GEI.TO and maybe $ALA.TO. It feels like $TRP.TO and $ENB.TO arent too fond of such assets $GEI.TO is small. $ALA.TO Or a US co" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1408787445206949889) 2021-06-26T14:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mailboxmoney6 @MLPguy I think the stock gets added to the AMEI index and given its market cap is similar to $ETRN maybe at a 1.5-2.5% weight. I would expect most RIC-structured midstream funds to be buyers. Also expect funds released from $IPL.TO to be re-directed towards a name like $DTM" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1411077048429330436) 2021-07-02T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@_sem_yyc @shaleington At least one Canadian company was notorious in this regard: $IPL.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1496960123587076097) 2022-02-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg O'Neill" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045) 2023-09-16T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "7/10 Is the deal accretive to $SUN Pre-deal Units o/s = [-----] mm Annual IDR burden = $157 mm Equivalent units at $3.60/unit of distribution = [--] mm Adj. Common Units = [---] mm Unit Price = $55.00 Pre-deal Debt = $7.5 bn Adjusted Ent. Value = $17.4 bn EV/EBITDA = [---] x" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411239190515829) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "9/10 Structural considerations: $SUN is creating a new publicly-traded C-corp security called SUNCorp. LLC and is issuing shares in this new entity to $PKI.TO SUNCorp will hold $SUN units and the two will be equivalent (1:1 basis) but future taxability of SUNCorp is a question" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1919411242503925925) 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$WMB reported Q3'25 EBITDA of $1.92 billion which was in-line with Consensus. Full year guidance mid-point of $7.75 billion reiterated. CAPEX guide increased $500 mm on recent LNG deal with Woodside LNG ( $WDS )" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1985500540336324820) 2025-11-04T00:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mailboxmoney6 @TomLoughrey_LFE @hawtdeals1 @NiceQuarterGuys Tillerson (or any major CEO) doesnt belong on the list because they had refining to bail them out during some difficult E&P cycles. Chazen and Stice were good. $CLR had decent numbers while public. Dundas at $ERF was good also and I always liked Tillman at $MRO" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1996705024647336359) 2025-12-04T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Energy stocks ( E&Ps and Midstream) trading like crude is at $70-$75/bbl when it is at $57/bbl. Either crude has to rally hard to at least mid-$60s/bbl or these things have to correct 8-10%. Risk-reward in energy stocks skewed to the downside imo. Let's see. $XOP $XLE $AMZ" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1999140059614765333) 2025-12-11T15:31Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements "Good to see the Board of Directors of $BP are thinking about the right attributes to look for in their CEO while trying to satisfy their ESG goals. MIT-trained Engineer + Experience with $XOM before becoming CEO of $WDS Congratulations to Ms. O'Neill https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/2001462071456600362) 2025-12-18T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/3 Energy Transfer ( $ET ) out with a modest beat for Q4'23 with EBITDA of $3.60 bn vs. Consensus of $3.54 - about 1.7% better [----] Guidance of $14.5 to $14.8 bn of EBITDA representing 7% YOY growth $CEQP deal (closed in Nov'23) contributes 80% of the YOY EBITDA growth" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1757945995696992482) 2024-02-15T01:52Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements "@NiceQuarterGuys That is a bit harsh no They have historically done a decent job on earnings delivery / ROCE etc. But they like many in this business just can't seem to stop spending. I agree that the M&A over the last [--] months ( $MMP + Medallion etc.) is going to hurt ROCE" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1851392061032853759) 2024-10-29T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "9/15 Now for the Tiger Shark of the group $ET. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $48.4 billion (incl. $CEQP last year + $ENBL $SEMG etc.) Change in EBITDA = $5.2 billion to $5.6 billion Return = 10.7% to 11.6% Return for 2018-2022 = 9.6% to 10.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094295956000820) 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "6% apples-to-apples beat by $OKE with Q3'23 EBITDA coming in at $1.08 bn vs. Consensus at $1.02 bn. Removing $123 mm in transaction costs and $40 mm of EBITDA from $MMP assets from reported EBITDA of $1.00 bn = 6% beat. Guidance upped 2.7% on a pre-acquisition basis" [X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1719473423422734727) 2023-10-31T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Suicide95518428 SuicideBlonde
SuicideBlonde posts on X about $oke, $xom, $mplx, $paa the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +541%
- [--] Month [------] +311%
- [--] Months [-------] -21%
- [--] Year [-------] -60%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +121%
- [--] Month [--] -7.40%
- [--] Months [---] +279%
- [--] Year [-----] +94%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +2.90%
- [--] Year [-----] +11%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 60% finance 38% cryptocurrencies #5151 countries 10% currencies 5% technology brands 3% fashion brands 1%
Social topic influence $oke #1, $xom 11%, $mplx #1, $paa #1, mplx #1, $orstedco 10%, $trgp #1, $epd #3, $et #3, ceo 8%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mailboxmoney6 @nicequarterguys @rbl1973 @crudechronicle @tomloughreylfe @harshmadhusudan @fcompounders @chrisxfra @war527 @energypeddler @dalibali2 @capitalobserver @tommydeepwater @wolfofwalkerst @voltefaceinvest @engineersfeed @novilabs @rbnenergy @javierblas @sccath
Top assets mentioned ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) Exxon Mobil (XOM) Metaplex (MPLX) Plains All American Pipeline, LP. (PAA) MPLX LP (MPLX) Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD) Energy Transfer, LP. (ET) Sun Token (SUN) Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) Williams Companies Inc (WMB) Magellan Midstream Partners, LP. (MMP) Convex Finance (CVX) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Hess Corp. (HES) BP p.l.c. (BP) NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM) Western Midstream Partners, LP. (WES) Phillips [--] (PSX) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP) ENLINK MIDSTREAM, LLC (ENLC) O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Partisia Blockchain (MPC) Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Autozone Inc (AZO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Q3'25 Energy Midstream earnings recap (+/- vs. Consensus): $EPD -3.5% $MPLX +0.9% $PAA -1.3% $ET -3.3% $WES +3.2% $SUN -1.3% $KMI -0.1% $WMB +0.1% $OKE +0.4% $TRGP +5.4% $LNG -3.3% $DTM +1.9% $TRP.TO -0.5% $ENB.TO -0.5% $PPL.TO +2.0% $KEY.TO -6.7% $GEI.TO -1.3% $SOBO.TO +3.7%"
X Link 2025-12-18T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$EPD reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $2707 mm beating Consensus by 5.6% Guiding to Net CAPEX of $2.7 billion for [----] (incl. asset sales of $600 mm) With EBITDA = $10.5 bn Interest = $1.5 bn Net CAPEX = $2.7 bn FCF for [----] should be $6.3 bn or 9% FCF yield on the stock"
X Link 2026-02-03T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/13 Starting with $KMI between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $15 billion EBITDA = $400 $600 million Return = 2.7% to 4.0% Return for the [----] to [----] period = 0% to 1.6% Improving trajectory for sure.let's see if this can continue"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/13 Long overdue annual update on Midstream returns on capital deployed. Period covered: [----] to [----] Companies Covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Last year's Analysis/Thread below for reference: https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094278809788684s=20 1/15 A year ago I wrote a thread examining the capital allocation decisions of US Midstream companies between [----] and [----]. It is time to update the figures for [----] Companies covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Period Covered: 2018-2023 https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1856094278809788684s=20"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, 25.7K engagements
"12/13 Evolution of returns shown in Table below"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/15 A year ago I wrote a thread examining the capital allocation decisions of US Midstream companies between [----] and [----]. It is time to update the figures for [----] Companies covered: $KMI $OKE $LNG $WMB $TRGP $EPD $ET $MPLX $PAA Period Covered: 2018-2023"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, 80.7K engagements
"4/13 Looking at $OKE next b/w [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $41.9 billion (includes $ENLC purchase which closed in Q1'25) EBITDA = $5.8 to $6.0 billion Return = 13.8% to 14.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 11.5% to 12.1% Looks like $MMP synergies are coming through"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"9/13 Now for $ET - the biggest of them all. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $62.3 billion (incl. NuStar purchase by $SUN) EBITDA = $4.8 to $5.2 billion Return = 7.7% to 8.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 10.7% to 11.6% Competition hurting base business esp. Permian"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"13/13 $TRGP and $LNG are tops $WMB and $OKE - strong returns despite high M&A activity - indicates good synergy capture $ET and $EPD - Disappointing drop in returns - perhaps undercutting each other $MPLX - Solid but recent M&A bears watching $KMI - Improving $PAA - Weak"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/6 $PAA has announced the sale of its Canadian NGL business to Keyera ( $KEY.TO ) for US$3.75 billion The valuation is 8.5x estimated [----] EBITDA ($440 mm) Since the business is a Canadian tax-payer the effective cash flow multiple is 12.9x https://ir.plains.com/static-files/3a0cfc25-eef9-4dcf-a6d0-39e0cb939156 https://ir.plains.com/static-files/3a0cfc25-eef9-4dcf-a6d0-39e0cb939156"
X Link 2025-06-17T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TRGP reports Q3'25 EBITDA of $1275 mm - beating Consensus by 5.4% Recommends a 25% hike to the dividend starting next year CAPEX for [----] creeps higher to $3.3 billion (was $3 billion) - new processing plants/pipes announced I like $TRGP a lot but more CAPEX at $60 WTI C'mon"
X Link 2025-11-05T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Change of guard at Western Midstream ( $WES ) Mr. Oscar Brown replaces Mr. Michael Ure as CEO Interesting quote from PR: "The Board identified Mr. Brown as the ideal CEO to lead the Partnership's next chapter" Is a sale of $WES the purported "next chapter""
X Link 2024-10-28T22:06Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements
"1/4 So it is $PAA that ends up buying 55% of the [---] kbbl/d EPIC Crude Pipeline Price tag: $1.57 billion incl. $600 mm of assumed debt I'm not happy. They've found ways to spend money even before the proceeds from the Canada NGL can come through https://x.com/MLPguy/status/1960377830493085917 Who buys EPIC crude pipeline https://x.com/MLPguy/status/1960377830493085917 Who buys EPIC crude pipeline"
X Link 2025-09-02T16:11Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"@harshmadhusudan Arent you overcomplicating this A real GDP growth rate of 6% and inflation of 3% means nominal GDP growth of 9%. Compounding $4.2 trillion for [--] years at 9% gives us $36 trillion"
X Link 2026-01-06T08:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@VolteFaceInvest I just want Mr. Oscar Brown to stick to his banker knitting and sell the company for $45-$50/unit to (say) $OKE or $KMI (someone like that)"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@F_Compounders $ORLY (same biz. as $AZO ) $MPC & $VLO (Refining)"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/13 Methodology: a) Compute EBITDA b/w Q3'25 & Q3'18 b) Annualize change in (a) = cumulative EBITDA growth c) Calculate Total Capital Deployed b/w [----] and [----] = CAPEX + Acquisitions (incl. stock-for-stock) - Divestitures Return = Annualized EBITDA Capital Deployed"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ChrisXFRA Great assets obviously but also limited balance sheet capacity to do anything meaningful besides blocking and tackling. I think there was a time shortly after the spin when it was unduly depressed. My sense is that the easy money has been made in the name. It's a good M&A target"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MPLX reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $1804 mm exceeding Consensus by 1% Guiding [----] CAPEX of $2.4 billion [----] FCF will fall short of Distributions by about $600 mm: EBITDA = $7.2 bn Interest = $1.1 bn CAPEX = $2.4 bn FCF = $3.7 bn vs. Dist. $4.3 bn"
X Link 2026-02-03T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5/13 Next up $LNG. Between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $16 billion EBITDA = $4.0 to $4.2 billion Return = 25.0% to 26.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 26.2% to 29.2% Continued weakening of TTF & JKL pricing has reduced marketing margins"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6/13 Let's check $WMB next. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $20.7 billion EBITDA = $2.8 to $3.0 billion Return = 13.5% to 14.5% Return during 2018-2023 = 12.0% to 13.3% Nice comeback in returns - driven by projects coming online especially Deepwater GoM"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"11/13 Finally let's look at $PAA. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $6 billion EBITDA = $100 mm to $200 mm Return = 1.7% to 3.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 0.0% to 2.2% Slight improvement but a long way to go still"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/15 Let's begin with $KMI. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $12.4 billion Change in EBITDA = $0 to $200 million Return on Investment = 0% to 1.6% Return for the [----] to [----] period was = -1.2% to +1.2% Marginal improvement at best. Lots of wood to chop"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/15 Next up $OKE. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $30.5 billion (incl. $MMP acquisition) Change in EBITDA = $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion Return on Investment = 11.5% to 12.1% Return for 2018-2022 = 15.8% to 17.8% Unsurprisingly large-scale M&A hurts ROICs"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"8/15 Turning to MLPs let's begin with $EPD. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $22.8 billion Change in EBITDA = $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion Return = 8.8% to 9.6% Return for 2018-2022 = 8.2% to 9.2% ROIC starting to improve Can they get above 10.0% next year"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Five years ago this day: Not in my wildest dreams did I think that the returns would be as spectacular $TRGP: +2913% $MPLX: +674% $OKE: +587% $PAA: +427% $PPL.TO: +236% $MMP: +414% (chained w/ $OKE since 9/23) $PSXP: +149% (chained w/ $PSX since 3/22) https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641 It looks really bad in Midstream-land. But buying the following names now is likely to result in some big winners. $PAA $MPLX $MMP $PSXP $TRGP $PPL.TO $OKE https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641 It looks really bad in Midstream-land. But buying the following names now is"
X Link 2025-03-20T13:23Z [----] followers, 31.1K engagements
"7/13 Let's finish the C-corps with $TRGP. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $20 billion (incl. purchase of Badlands stake from Blackstone) EBITDA = $3.6 to $3.8 billion Return = 18.0% to 19.0% Return during 2018-2023 = 18.0% to 19.3% Maintaining strong returns"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"8/13 Turning to MLPs first up $EPD. Between [----] and 2024: Capital Deployed = $28.1 billion EBITDA = $2.0 to $2.2 billion Return = 7.1% to 7.8% Return during 2018-2023 = 8.8% to 9.6% All is not well in the base business - more competition in the Permian"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10/13 Next let's look at $MPLX. Between [----] & 2024: Capital Deployed = $25.6 billion EBITDA = $3.2 to $3.4 billion Return = 12.5% to 13.3% Return during 2018-2023 = 12.4% to 13.2% Returns holding steady but acquisitions jumped in [----]. So let's see"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PAA reported Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA of $738 mm - missing Consensus of $758 mm by 2.6% [----] EBITDA Guidance = $2.75 billion - more or less inline w/Consensus Leverage at 3.9x - above target range - expected to come down post-NGL biz. sale .Not a barnburner"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@engineers_feed Spend as much time in makerspaces as possible. Try to make things you read about in textbooks and test them out. Learn as many hands-on skills as possible. And no matter your major: study Thermodynamics and Fluid Mechanics - dont graduate w/o those two"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TomLoughrey_LFE @WAR527 @mailboxmoney6 @NiceQuarterGuys If you have a proclivity for zero debt youve already won half the battle as an E&P CEO"
X Link 2025-12-04T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@EnergyPeddler Helped by the 44% allocation to $XOM & $CVX and their cost-reduction/CAPEX reduction announcements. Crazy that people still fall for the "profitable at $50/bbl" narrative"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WAR527 @novilabs @RBNEnergy If this is even half-correct $OKE will keep minting money on their Elk Creek and Bakken pipelines for a looooong time"
X Link 2025-12-15T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JavierBlas Called it two years ago.probably took the board some time to decide between putting $BP up for sale vs. staying independent. https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg O'Neill https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound"
X Link 2025-12-18T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sc_cath Another reason why preserving the solvency and sanctity of the social security system is paramount"
X Link 2026-01-05T19:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KiranKS It will be $300 billion for every 1% increase in the cost of funding. It could also be a benefit if the new interest rate is lower than before. Your post is incomplete"
X Link 2026-01-08T05:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@prakdadlani Please dont get taken in by posts like those by Manoj Arora. They are at best ill-informed. Indias CA deficit is generally 1.8% of GDP Much of the deficit is due to gold imports and oil. To become a Mfg. powerhouse (Bharats dream) we need to import capital goods"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Iyervval Possibly because the President is unhappy about the renewed hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia - a peace that he had brokered"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EnergyPeddler Said pods were long $APP $INTU $ORCL $AVGO and possibly $V and $MA Said pods were short - what else - Energy"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@kushal_mehra India has many cards. Did you not see that they had raised tariffs on American pulses to 30% effective Nov 1st Best to keep quiet and do things behind the scenes"
X Link 2026-01-18T05:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@amitgupta0310 Like they say if you cant take the heat get out of the kitchen. The markets off about 5% from recent highs and trading at a robust valuation and you are here whining"
X Link 2026-01-20T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@harshmadhusudan Canada had floating exchange rates b/w [----] and [----] and then again from [----]. Their experience demonstrated the viability of floating exchange rates and inspired Robert Mundell to study exchange rate mechanisms and optimum currency areas"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TigerTrader41 Stock still trading at 28x [----] EBITDA. So theres that. $ORSTED.CO trading at 15x [----]. So if $PLUG converges to $ORSTED.CO were looking at a price of $11 or so"
X Link 2021-05-10T22:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@LOWO64 I am torn between $MPLX and $TRGP A bit concerned that both are continuing to spend money despite a weak crude tape. But I must confess that $TRGP has executed marvelously this year (so far). $MPLX seems to be going steady as well - just wish theyd pull back on Capex"
X Link 2025-11-17T01:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@F_Compounders $V & $MA $FDX & $UPS $KO & $PEP $ADP & $PAYX $HD & $LOW"
X Link 2026-01-20T12:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@chesscom Lol. Carlsen is NOT the greatest of all time. The clown needed rapid games to retain the title against Caruana and Karjakin. Kasparov is the GOAT or perhaps Bobby Fischer. Carlsen doesnt even make it to the top-3 of all time"
X Link 2026-01-28T05:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dalibali2 @CapitalObserver $300 billion of revenue looks very optimistic. It doesnt look like $ORCLs businesses besides Cloud Infra are growing much at all. Also not much evidence yet of margin improvement. If everything goes right were looking at a 16.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY 2029"
X Link 2025-09-12T03:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So it looks like skepticism around the euphoria in $ORCL that erupted [--] months ago was very much justified. Delayed AI benefit + burgeoning debt have taken this POS from $340 to $190 in just a quarter.wow https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1966342182895239531s=20 @dalibali2 @CapitalObserver $300 billion of revenue looks very optimistic. It doesnt look like $ORCLs businesses besides Cloud Infra are growing much at all. Also not much evidence yet of margin improvement. If everything goes right were looking at a 16.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY 2029."
X Link 2025-12-11T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Shares of $ORSTED.CO 20% on impairments of $2.3 bn on US Offshore Wind projects. "The situation in U.S. offshore wind is severe" CEO Mads Nipper said Supply chain issues unfavorable discussions re: addl. tax credits and interest rates cited. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmarks-orsted-anticipates-730-mln-impact-us-portfolio-2023-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmarks-orsted-anticipates-730-mln-impact-us-portfolio-2023-08-29/"
X Link 2023-08-30T09:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BobMarl42515340 @JerryCap It is a question of who is less bad. Personally I have found the management teams at $PPL.TO $KEY.TO and $GEI.TO to be less harmful to the equity-holders' cause. $TRP.TO and $ENB.TO have been a bit more detrimental to equity-holders' cause"
X Link 2023-10-03T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PPL.TO reported Q1'24 EBITDA of C$1044 mm beating Consensus view of C$999 mm by 4.5% Dividend raised by 3.4% Debt/EBITDA = 3.4x Well-run company with strong balance sheet and interesting project slate - Cedar LNG Peace Phase VIII RFS IV etc. Investor Day on May 16th"
X Link 2024-05-10T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/5 The implied multiple of 8.5x looks reasonable. If $PSX can grow the business as they claim in their PR then that multiple should improve. $PSX has a considerable Midstream business (legacy DCP Midstream + legacy $PSXP) and acquired assets fit well with their CP-Chem biz"
X Link 2025-01-07T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TRGP reported Q2'25 EBITDA of $1163 million which was 1.2% better than Consensus of $1149 million Full-year Guidance of $4.65 bn to $4.85 bn reiterated CAPEX raised by $300 mm While it's nice to see an earnings beat it's troubling to see the CAPEX creep"
X Link 2025-08-07T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@blondesnmoney You could throw in $LVMUY compounder-bros $PYPL compounder-bros $NKE compounder-bros into the mix as well"
X Link 2025-09-01T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@QuickDCapital @HalliBu78316368 @jendubayevans @EnronChairman Important to not let recency and survivorship biases affect thinking. $AAPL was near bankruptcy at one time. $IBM was as well. One can never say - disruptions happen all too often. There was a time $RIMM was lionized and the Razr was the hottest phone"
X Link 2020-12-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I could be totally wrong but the higher the price of oil the worse it is for renewable energy companies like $ORSTED.CO $EDPR.LS $ES etc. Why Because the folks at $BP will have more cash to throw at the already anemic IRR projects"
X Link 2021-02-22T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mailboxmoney6 Changes to the PSC brought on by political changes. That being said $XOM / $HES and $CNOOC are de facto US Govt and Govt of China respectively. Countries may feel they can poke the bear (US) and get away with it but I doubt they have the courage to poke the dragon (China)"
X Link 2022-07-26T22:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@bibivanderzee It cost $3600/KW to build. And even using the inflation-adjusted tariff of $88/MWh the project delivers no more than a 5% return to its developer. You are being subsidized by $ORSTED.CO investors who are accepting a return well below market"
X Link 2022-09-04T12:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Thepadre13 25% of the Stabroek block working interest is effectively Govt. of China ( $CNOOC ). Invaders will have to think twice about poking the dragon"
X Link 2023-01-31T03:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There was a time c. [----] when $ORSTED.CO and $NEE were viewed as the energy giants of the future - supplanting $XOM $CVX et al. Perhaps these renewable names were nothing more than an aberration created by easy money policies and delusional government profligacy"
X Link 2023-08-30T09:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"First $ORSTED.CO (stock 25%) & now $RWE.DE citing problems with offshore wind. Lets 🛑 pretending that these things are viable energy sources. They need interest rates tax credit regime and commodity prices. LCOE is a sham. https://x.com/Energy_Tidbits/status/1697080517345399060s=20 WOW Must read 👇RWE CEO post ". #OffshoreWind projects in EU & US have been stopped mainly citing cost increases" "worst case scenario for the #EnergyTransition when large projects that have already been awarded are not realised as planned" #NatGas needed for longer #OOTT https://t.co/fAHVt8GpPt"
X Link 2023-08-31T06:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MMP - Magellan Investors Approve Oneoks $18.8 Billion Takeover (1) Deal to close in a couple of days. End of an era. $MMP IPO'd on 2/6/2001 and since then it has compounded at 18.45% p.a. vs. 7.32% for the S&P [---]. $OKE has been no slouch in that time either +14.00% p.a"
X Link 2023-09-21T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What a legend this guy this. He has single-handedly maimed or killed many of these climate grift operations. $NEP $ORSTED.CO $PLUG $EVA $FCEL $AES $ENPH $SEDG Quite the body-count here. https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452s=20 JUST IN: FED Chair Jerome Powell says "just close the fcking door" after climate protestors interrupt his speech. https://t.co/feDlOteRaz https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1722697080743907452s=20 JUST IN: FED Chair Jerome Powell says "just close the fcking door" after climate protestors interrupt his speech. https://t.co/feDlOteRaz"
X Link 2023-11-10T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(10/17) Now for the serial-acquirer $ET Capital Deployed = $37.5 bn ($12.0 bn on acquisition of $SEMG and $ENBL) EBITDA Change = $3.6 bn to $4.0 bn Return = 9% to 11% Surprised on two counts: a) Impact of M&A not as bad as feared b) How are they ahead of $EPD"
X Link 2023-11-21T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(11/17) Next up $MPLX Capital Deployed = $22.2 bn (incl. $13 bn for $ANDX) EBITDA Change = $2.5 bn to $2.7 bn Return = 11% to 12% Solid returns Dented by the rather expensive $ANDX deal that (sector multiples have compressed since 2019)"
X Link 2023-11-21T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/21 $HES - or more specifically their 30% Working Interest in Guyana position is at the center of the battle between $XOM and $CVX with the matter of $XOM's ROFR now in arbitration. I estimate $HES Guyana could be worth $30 to $32 billion. Let's see why/how. A (long) 🧵"
X Link 2024-03-07T20:57Z [----] followers, 61.9K engagements
"2/21 First: A review of the Guyana Production Sharing Contract 1) Royalty Rate of 2.00% 2) 75.00% Cost Oil Cap 3) 50.00% of Profit Oil to $XOM $HES $CNOOC collectively 4) Most Important: NO RING-FENCING"
X Link 2024-03-07T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater $XOM should look to acquire $GALP.LS for $15-$20 bn rather than try to match whatever $CVX thinks Stabroek is worth (c. $30 bn). It would be 30-50% cheaper to buy $GALP.LS and would diversify $XOMs risk than further concentrate it"
X Link 2024-03-09T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater 🙏 Much appreciated. Is there any way to get information on the fiscal terms in Namibia Royalty Cost Oil cap Profit Oil split between Govt. and operators (with R-factors if applicable) - not much info in $GALP.LS decks"
X Link 2024-03-09T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rbl1973 @PATCHnHrd @CathieDWood If you thought Cathie Wood calling for the end of oil is hilarious what do you say about folks calling $ORSTED.CO and $NEE the new $XOM and $CVX This was shortly after $XOM got booted from the DJIA"
X Link 2024-04-13T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rbl1973 @staunovo IMO $BPs DNA has mutated so much that turning it around will take more money than the costs you can cut by buying them. $SHEL should buy $GALP.LS and develop resources expand PetChem and hard as it sounds philosophically re-expand refining"
X Link 2024-04-27T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rbl1973 @crudechronicle This effectively makes $HES untouchable. Whoever tries to buy them has to deal with the Stabroek ROFR. Only $XOM or $CNOOC could buy them"
X Link 2024-05-07T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rbl1973 Arbiters to decide if transaction triggers $XOM / $CNOOC ROFR"
X Link 2024-09-12T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JamieHeard5 Old enough to remember the time when $ORSTED.CO and $NEE were touted at the $XOM and $CVX of the Renewable Age"
X Link 2025-01-20T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/10 Big transaction in Energy-land with $SUN acquiring Canada's Parkland ( $PKI.TO ) for US$10 billion in cash and stock plus: assumed debt. Deal Valuation = 7.8x [----] EBITDA or 6.6% FCF yield Here's some number-crunching"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements
"2/10 First let's look at standalone $PKI.TO numbers. I've used their MD&A for Q4'24 and a CAD/USD exchange rate of C$1.40 per USD I am using the low-end of their [----] EBITDA guidance for my analysis"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/10 Deal Consideration and Valuation (figures in USD and uses CAD-USD exch. rate = C$1.40/USD): $10 billion consideration - 53% Equity / 47% Debt Assumed 7.8x [----] EBITDA"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5/10 The combined view of $SUN + $PKI.TO is shown below. Leverage worsens to 4.5x due to cash consideration on the deal. I assume only $100 mm in synergies and a cost of debt of debt of 6.5% on the incremental debt. Excess FCF available = $550 mm - nice jump"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"8/10 Deal is prima facie accretive to $SUN given its higher pre-deal valuation of 9.0x EV/EBITDA vs. 7.8x EV/EBITDA for $PKI.TO Surplus FCF also jumps from $200 mm to $550 mm If we set Surplus FCF to $200 mm it would mean $SUN could pay $4.40/unit annually i.e 22% accretive"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PAA reported Q2'25 EBITDA of $672 million which was exactly in-line with Consensus They acquired an additional stake in BridgeTex & now own 40% of the pipe Waiting on the sale of the Canadian NGL business to $KEY.TO"
X Link 2025-08-08T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"During the depths of the COVD lockdown and barely two weeks post Biden's election (hopes of IRA) Bloomberg ran an article that was effusive in its praise of $ORSTED.CO and fellow renewable players - calling them the new super-majors. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-renewable-energy-supermajors/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-renewable-energy-supermajors/"
X Link 2025-08-11T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/2 Quick update on the $MPLX announcement to divest their Rockies gathering (acquired via the $ANDX deal) to Harvest Midstream $1.0 billion for [---] bcf/d of processing capacity operating at 52% I estimate EBITDA to be $90 mm ($0.70/mcf fee $0.30/mcf Opex) - so about 11x"
X Link 2025-08-28T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@rbl1973 In general $COP has been decent at acquiring. $SHEL Permian assets $CXO Oil Sands from $TTE and finally $MRO Their investments in Alaska Qatar and US LNG are also decent Only problem: Debt-fueled buybacks when oil was $100/bbl"
X Link 2025-09-05T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BigIdeasCapital @TomLoughrey_LFE @mailboxmoney6 @NiceQuarterGuys Lmao. Clearly you havent come across the following terms: Kashagan = Cash all gone Gorgon = More (cash) gone Tengiz = Ten gazillion dollars As for $OXY they first offloaded crappy assets and loads of debt on to $CRC and then proceeded to nearly bankrupt themselves with $APC"
X Link 2025-12-06T06:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rumor has it that $IPL.TO had a C$30/share buyout offer and the turned it down. Stock at C$23 or so after a 9% move today. Company in the midst of a massive petchem buildout with nearly 6x leverage. Why on earth would someone turn a buyout offer at c. 45% premium"
X Link 2019-08-08T21:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SadBillAckman Assuming you are referencing $KEY.TO - question becomes who If $PPL.TO is successful in its bid for $IPL.TO we are left with $ENB.TO $TRP.TO $GEI.TO and maybe $ALA.TO. It feels like $TRP.TO and $ENB.TO arent too fond of such assets $GEI.TO is small. $ALA.TO Or a US co"
X Link 2021-06-26T14:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mailboxmoney6 @MLPguy I think the stock gets added to the AMEI index and given its market cap is similar to $ETRN maybe at a 1.5-2.5% weight. I would expect most RIC-structured midstream funds to be buyers. Also expect funds released from $IPL.TO to be re-directed towards a name like $DTM"
X Link 2021-07-02T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@_sem_yyc @shaleington At least one Canadian company was notorious in this regard: $IPL.TO"
X Link 2022-02-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg O'Neill"
X Link 2023-09-16T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7/10 Is the deal accretive to $SUN Pre-deal Units o/s = [-----] mm Annual IDR burden = $157 mm Equivalent units at $3.60/unit of distribution = [--] mm Adj. Common Units = [---] mm Unit Price = $55.00 Pre-deal Debt = $7.5 bn Adjusted Ent. Value = $17.4 bn EV/EBITDA = [---] x"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"9/10 Structural considerations: $SUN is creating a new publicly-traded C-corp security called SUNCorp. LLC and is issuing shares in this new entity to $PKI.TO SUNCorp will hold $SUN units and the two will be equivalent (1:1 basis) but future taxability of SUNCorp is a question"
X Link 2025-05-05T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$WMB reported Q3'25 EBITDA of $1.92 billion which was in-line with Consensus. Full year guidance mid-point of $7.75 billion reiterated. CAPEX guide increased $500 mm on recent LNG deal with Woodside LNG ( $WDS )"
X Link 2025-11-04T00:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mailboxmoney6 @TomLoughrey_LFE @hawtdeals1 @NiceQuarterGuys Tillerson (or any major CEO) doesnt belong on the list because they had refining to bail them out during some difficult E&P cycles. Chazen and Stice were good. $CLR had decent numbers while public. Dundas at $ERF was good also and I always liked Tillman at $MRO"
X Link 2025-12-04T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Energy stocks ( E&Ps and Midstream) trading like crude is at $70-$75/bbl when it is at $57/bbl. Either crude has to rally hard to at least mid-$60s/bbl or these things have to correct 8-10%. Risk-reward in energy stocks skewed to the downside imo. Let's see. $XOP $XLE $AMZ"
X Link 2025-12-11T15:31Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements
"Good to see the Board of Directors of $BP are thinking about the right attributes to look for in their CEO while trying to satisfy their ESG goals. MIT-trained Engineer + Experience with $XOM before becoming CEO of $WDS Congratulations to Ms. O'Neill https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703092439869776045s=20 @crudechronicle At its core O&G is about: 1) Sound Engineering (executing projects on time + on budget + safe) 2) Sound Capital Allocation (resource growth vs. shareholder returns) If you can find a female that can do both by all means appoint them e.g. CEO of $WDS (Woodside) Meg"
X Link 2025-12-18T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/3 Energy Transfer ( $ET ) out with a modest beat for Q4'23 with EBITDA of $3.60 bn vs. Consensus of $3.54 - about 1.7% better [----] Guidance of $14.5 to $14.8 bn of EBITDA representing 7% YOY growth $CEQP deal (closed in Nov'23) contributes 80% of the YOY EBITDA growth"
X Link 2024-02-15T01:52Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements
"@NiceQuarterGuys That is a bit harsh no They have historically done a decent job on earnings delivery / ROCE etc. But they like many in this business just can't seem to stop spending. I agree that the M&A over the last [--] months ( $MMP + Medallion etc.) is going to hurt ROCE"
X Link 2024-10-29T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"9/15 Now for the Tiger Shark of the group $ET. Between [----] and 2023: Capital Deployed = $48.4 billion (incl. $CEQP last year + $ENBL $SEMG etc.) Change in EBITDA = $5.2 billion to $5.6 billion Return = 10.7% to 11.6% Return for 2018-2022 = 9.6% to 10.7%"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"6% apples-to-apples beat by $OKE with Q3'23 EBITDA coming in at $1.08 bn vs. Consensus at $1.02 bn. Removing $123 mm in transaction costs and $40 mm of EBITDA from $MMP assets from reported EBITDA of $1.00 bn = 6% beat. Guidance upped 2.7% on a pre-acquisition basis"
X Link 2023-10-31T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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