# ![@Riccardino999 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1551188485792563201.png) @Riccardino999 Mr Rhino

Mr Rhino posts on X about debt, in the, $shel, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1551188485792563201/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1551188485792563201/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.63%
- [--] Month [------] +21%
- [--] Months [-------] +41%
- [--] Year [-------] +42%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1551188485792563201/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1551188485792563201/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [---] +55%
- [--] Months [---] +110%
- [--] Year [---] +57%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1551188485792563201/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1551188485792563201/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +21%
- [--] Year [-----] +54%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1551188485792563201/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1551188485792563201/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  49.57% [stocks](/list/stocks)  25.22% [countries](/list/countries)  16.52% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  5.22% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  3.48% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  2.61% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2.61% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.87% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  0.87% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.87%

**Social topic influence**
[debt](/topic/debt) #1059, [in the](/topic/in-the) 9.57%, [$shel](/topic/$shel) #6, [money](/topic/money) 6.09%, [business](/topic/business) 5.22%, [$xom](/topic/$xom) #67, [$bak](/topic/$bak) #26, [$lyb](/topic/$lyb) #11, [$ce](/topic/$ce) #7, [$hun](/topic/$hun) #63

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@onlytheyruth](/creator/undefined) [@kingkev1974](/creator/undefined) [@bazza1313](/creator/undefined) [@workyj](/creator/undefined) [@henrik115](/creator/undefined) [@korwraith](/creator/undefined) [@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@finengnet](/creator/undefined) [@spreadbet](/creator/undefined) [@headder86](/creator/undefined) [@privatffm](/creator/undefined) [@marcelo12650938](/creator/undefined) [@mrricharddavies](/creator/undefined) [@warrenenmkts](/creator/undefined) [@dleeds8023594](/creator/undefined) [@nichola77431904](/creator/undefined) [@huntforcatalyst](/creator/undefined) [@bobinvest](/creator/undefined) [@fin_eng_net](/creator/undefined) [@homers2973](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [Braskem S.A. American Depositary Shares (BAK)](/topic/$bak) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Celanese Corporation (CE)](/topic/$ce) [Huntsman Corporation (HUN)](/topic/$hun) [Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)](/topic/$emn) [Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK)](/topic/$wlk) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)](/topic/$pep) [The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. (MICC)](/topic/$micc) [BP p.l.c. (BP)](/topic/$bp) [Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL)](/topic/$tpl) [HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC)](/topic/horizon-kinetics) [Ecopetrol S.A (EC)](/topic/$ec) [Unilever plc (UL)](/topic/$ul) [Absci Corporation (ABSI)](/topic/$absi) [Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK)](/topic/$vik)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"#synt $synt.l #synthomer My take Few issues with this company: 1)Margins.Turnover is nearly 2bn and they barely make 50m in operating profit 2) Debt.Interest payments on the 800m gross debt pile is 60m (you should already see the problem now) This underperformance comes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021643878512914590)  2026-02-11T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Naphta that could penalize EU production in favour of north American sites Lots of these chemicals companies are heavily indebted and some might go to the wall (possibly starting with ineos). Risky sector but worth watching Any views or feedback What signs to look for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2006330140553326731)  2025-12-31T11:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Mozal (south32) should be a warning Curious to understand more here It's a company I like a lot impacted by temporary softness in pricing that is overlevered The ingredients for a multi bag are there you just need to get the timing right And the timing is not now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2013960203088052554)  2026-01-21T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kingkev1974 I have taken a brief look at Ng It's not a bad proposition considering they are partnering with m&p However consider [--] things 50% dilution coming so 396m shares The 8$ NAT gas local in Colombia can be arbitraged away by lng arriving from the gulf The 2p NPV for the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2015474289420419401)  2026-01-25T17:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#hemo #hemogenyx $hemo.l No news on funding and the shares are up 20%. Don't be caught by this shitco😉 Something is coming and will be very dilutive If they can raise at all. 5.6m is not insubstantial This is even worse than #avct or #agy 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019030345124053119)  2026-02-04T12:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#shel $shel Slightly disappointing results Cffo drops to 9.4bn$ for the quarter While fcf drops to 4.2bn $ This effectively means that buybacks and dividends are partly coming out of increased debt The stock still yields 10% on a fcf basis so it s still pretty cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019330517834125766)  2026-02-05T08:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The drag in earnings came mainly from chemicals renewables and surprisingly from marketing While upstream and gas were stronger Curious to listen to the conference call But valuation here is not extreme Unless oil falls to 30$ this is a reasonably safe investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019330519901835607)  2026-02-05T08:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#aet #afentra Reasonable update Key takeaways 1) the company should be net cash again in January after receipt of sale from latest cargo 2) upkeep Capex falls to 150m$ from 210m$ for block 3/05 This means an extra 15-16m$ for #aet 3) there's still issues with water"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019333405121606021)  2026-02-05T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Injections 4) infill drilling and workovers (110m$ ) should be financed through a combination of existing funds and increased borrowing 5) production at the end of [----] should be closer to 10k bopd 6) there's more upside coming from onshore Kwanza and 3/24 Worth 75p for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019333408799981853)  2026-02-05T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Disposals in such a volatile market for commoditities. I also guess that Glencore coal business valuation might have been a sticky point. I think an opportunity will come out of the planned divestment of the titanium business out of #Rio So still worth a follow Views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019509417666912516)  2026-02-05T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#shel As usual very informative q&a session Few points: 1) Buybacks are still preferred the view is that they are still accretive and share price not fully valued 2) Reserve replacement fell due to sale of oil sands and Nigeria onshore the focus is on high margin barrels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019529085740106151)  2026-02-05T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Coming from deep water offshore 3) M&A market adjusting downwards with more deals appearing but prices are not there yet 4) Angola was touted as a promising exploration area $shel recently added deep water licences there (btw block [--] is the deep water equivalent of kon4)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019529087555871134)  2026-02-05T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Onlytheyruth I thought you knew I m not short. I m wise enough not to short pump and dump shitcos like this one. Have you not lost enough money on this shitco by being a long term investor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019530050895597653)  2026-02-05T21:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KoR_Wraith @Onlytheyruth Be careful going short this shitco It's a well made pump and dump You never know how unrealistic the prices can get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019546852505579583)  2026-02-05T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#bmv #bluebird mining ventures This shitco has been an unmitigated disaster But. According to an Rns released in May [----] The appeal against denial of a mining licence should be due soon Gold in the meantime has gone up 50% These [--] Korean mines were closed when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019705442444918863)  2026-02-06T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TommyDeepwater Really interesting post I wonder what the target irr is for all these deep water projects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2020456756275552362)  2026-02-08T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#ree #altona rare earths You might want to follow the accounts who tweet about upcoming news. Not those who disclose they own a stock once it has moved 50%🙂😉 Be smart. Don't be a sheep. #ree $ree.l #altona rare earths [--] bits of positive news on today's Rns 1) drilling expanded as they encountered more fluorspar than expected 2) engagement with USTDA progressing speedily after the USA government shutdown Look forward to the update in q1 [--] I hold https://t.co/3Q0hknauP5 #ree $ree.l #altona rare earths [--] bits of positive news on today's Rns 1) drilling expanded as they encountered more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2020930680352370714)  2026-02-09T18:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Onlytheyruth Is there any reason for you to be rude and insulting Btw you find out the hard way If you truly are a long term hemo investor you are sitting on massive losses. 😘"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021262540013986060)  2026-02-10T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#ulvr #micc You can directly see how the market is not efficient anymore $ulvr #unilever has become smaller after the demerger. Passive and index funds are buying the stock to go back at benchmark Meanwhile $micc is being slowly sold by the same funds as it's not in any index"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1998418758415888427)  2025-12-09T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$absi #absi #absci corp Open interest for [-----] calls at different strikes for Feb [--] Implied vol 100% This is around 2% of the total company Company is due to publish results for a phase 1/2 clinical trial Anyone following Looks like something is brewing here Views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1999795628893958640)  2025-12-13T10:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#cvna $cvna #carvana This is lining up to be a potentially good short Entry into s&p500 will drive flows of passive money into the stock While fundamentals are deteriorating Car loan defaults are rising steeply and there's a chance the ABS market they rely on simply will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2000311048512139534)  2025-12-14T21:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Unlikely to last Physical supply is constrained by the lack of primary mines with all the #silver coming out as a by-product of #gold and #copper mining Volatility is here to stay I d expect price swings and violent corrections but this looks like it's going above 100$"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2004832952648434047)  2025-12-27T08:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#saga This is a classic momentum story The company is deleveraging and the market is getting ahead of themselves Trading 10x EBITDA but crucially. It is cheaper than competitor $vik #vik viking holdings that trades at a crazy 20x EBITDA This could go higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2008567653427016063)  2026-01-06T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel #oott No end in sight for the petrochemical downturn and the pain #shell said margins for q4 will come in at 140$ a ton Vs 160$ for Q3 Downturn looks like it's getting deeper Imho #ineos is the weakest any way to play a short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2009216680371867653)  2026-01-08T10:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel #oott Interesting transaction yesterday Sabic sold its EU petrochemical assets to Aequita for 500m$ Aequita will combine them with other EU assets purchased from #lyb to create a company with 7bn turnover Interesting that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2009586822868037906)  2026-01-09T11:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#cvna $cvna #carvana Anyone with a bit of finance and accounting knowledge could see that the numbers do not add up The issue is your power to move the market And the flows going against them has been suicidal in the last [--] years There's plenty of stocks with dodgy accounts #cvna $cvna #carvana This is lining up to be a potentially good short Entry into s&p500 will drive flows of passive money into the stock While fundamentals are deteriorating Car loan defaults are rising steeply and there's a chance the ABS market they rely on simply will #cvna $cvna #carvana This is lining up to be a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2016588753515463066)  2026-01-28T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$cvna #carvana This story shows the irrational nature of the market the wall of liquidity and why all bears are dead Gotham report is correct Carvana is massaging the figures by inflating revenues and using related parties Yet. The stock rebounded and noone cares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2016989206682194062)  2026-01-29T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#pep $pep #pepsico Very bland results today The stock after the recent rally is even more overvalued and yields less than a 10yr treasury Any headwinds coming from secular changes in consumption in snacks and fizzy drinks could wreak havoc here (similar to #dge with alcohol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2018804554457104422)  2026-02-03T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#you $you.l #yougov Unimpressive trading update Revenue growth in line with inflation Suggesting corporate and media as agency spending is pretty soft This has read across for #wpp too But overall this doesn't look like a sector that will be growing in the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019026042657047035)  2026-02-04T12:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#rio #glen $rio $glen Merger has been called off I reckon the premium Rio tinto was willing to pay was too small I guess the overall signals that come out of this is that the two groups are fairly valued and it's difficult to extract synergies or achieve value accretive #glen #rio $glen $rio Interesting announcement of a possible all share merger I think this story has legs and could result in a 10-15% premium for #glencore shareholders I think the key to value accretion here is whether they will be able to sell or spin off profitably #glen #rio $glen $rio Interesting announcement of a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019509415494447154)  2026-02-05T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#nesn $nesn Interesting transaction The water business generates 500m in EBITDA With #nestle looking for an 8bn EV 5bn$ equity and 3bn debt (6x EBITDA) Nestl adds Deutsche Bank as 5bn water business sale gathers pace Private Equity Insights https://share.google/DXTMwcWhivQzkbCXt https://share.google/DXTMwcWhivQzkbCXt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2019912575509754345)  2026-02-06T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#oil #oott Very interesting post Based on the graph below the capital intensity for deep water Latam new projects is around 40-50000$ per barrel of production. This makes them incredibly sensitive to the oil price and the netback Anyone has days for other areas or the irr TotalEnergies has yet to reach FID on Venus but last weeks public meeting with Namibias President is a positive signal toward a potential [----] decision. After farming into 40% of Galps Mopane in Dec '25 $TTE is likely seeking a fiscal stability clause before taking FID #OOTT https://t.co/bLhtYiT3jd TotalEnergies has yet to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2020456635819331672)  2026-02-08T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#bp $bp as expected the low oil prices have translated into lower profits As a result Capex has been cut by 1bn$ to 13bn$ and buybacks suspended The dividend is safe and these measures should allow for net debt to fall to around 18-19bn$ by year end organically The 4bn$ in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021141255644754374)  2026-02-10T08:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Fin_Eng_Net Look no offence But they just hit an 8bn barrels deposit offshore Brazil Reserve replacement is not an issue Plus fcf is diverted from buybacks to debt and this should make a dent I m not as negative as others on #bp Plus this whole sector is rerating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021260204747157884)  2026-02-10T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bazza1313 The balance sheet has been addressed and they have a path to growth I think the market has been too punishing today The whole sector trades at depressed level so a bid might be dilutive or difficult to finance for most of the majors But let's see if anything comes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021261988328849652)  2026-02-10T16:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#blnd #land Caxton associate a large hedge fund just placed a 500m bet on the UK commercial property sector by buying 5.1% of #britishland And 5.4% of #landsec What's the trade here And the upside Is this a massive inflation trade Views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021972799854981493)  2026-02-12T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#hemo #hemogenyx I missed this little detail. Same people who did the earlier ramp of this shitco Let's see how good they are and see whether they can pump further Don't be caught by providing exit liquidity that's my two pence And don't doubt the end It's a [--] 😉😘"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022323927670784226)  2026-02-13T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You suffer as an existing shareholder means you will be effectively wiped out This is the risk of investing in overleveraged companies If the equity tranche starts to suffer the company won't be able to raise at meaningful prices and you face total wipeout Curiously following"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022325360902201465)  2026-02-13T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#ree Now that every Tom Dick & Harry is in #altona what's next Momentum is still strong so should go higher Plus you have other near term catalysts like the fluorspar assay results that could keep momentum going On fundamentals with USTDA funding this is still pretty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022612259198107680)  2026-02-14T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"cheap when compared with other rare earth plays like #mka Fluorspar and Gallium will be the first thing that come out of the ground Hopefully in [--] Funding to first ore could come from vendor financing as Capex should be pretty limited. Gallium could also provide a bit of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022612261110448259)  2026-02-14T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#axl #arrowexploration $axl.l How come they keep on hitting 2-3k bopd wells but the production is always around 5k bopd I d better not mention decline rates as people seems very sensitive on this topic. Cash generation is around 1.5m$ a month or 18m a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1855907486965916109)  2024-11-11T09:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#auto $auto.l #autotrader 7bn mkt cap or 12x sales are too much for a company growing at 7% per year in a market that is approaching saturation Margins are great and they make 380m But still 20x operating profit is too rich valuation This is also an egregious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1928071297012989983)  2025-05-29T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#mka #ree The plot thickens Confirmation of no material change Yet the move in Canada last night was significant with lots of volume trading What does it mean One explanation could be that the investors think the rare earth bubble has legs and decided this could squeeze"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1981629921379197036)  2025-10-24T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel #oott One sector to watch in [----] is petrochemicals Currently experiencing a deep through with margins well below norm and plant closures announced. There's a technical shift towards more efficient ethane cracking units away from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2006330137881759996)  2025-12-31T11:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#kmr #kenmare resources Two things from today's update 1) the impairment is related to the new mining conditions which obviously will not be as good as the other 2) the renewal of the licence is a much bigger issue than the company makes it out to be Recent issues with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2013960199803924691)  2026-01-21T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#fevr #fevertree Wow Great update revenue up 3% (Below inflation) The much decanted partnership with Molson Coors has delivered 3% revenue growth in the USA Meanwhile the UK is struggling -2% This is a stock that is supported by the buybacks once they finish so will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2016831441745711134)  2026-01-29T11:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WorkyJ How many years out before it gets to 14x fcf Molson Coors partnership has been on for over [--] months The growth is simply not there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2016891144131490025)  2026-01-29T15:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel #petrochemicals From #xom results Chemicals margins weakened again in q4 The interesting bit is that despite record demand they continue to have issues with overcapacity. The trough of the cycle in #chemicals is still not here $bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel #oott One sector to watch in [----] is petrochemicals Currently experiencing a deep through with margins well below norm and plant closures announced. There's a technical shift towards more efficient ethane cracking units away from https://t.co/husLc78tl7 $bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2017244748969382188)  2026-01-30T14:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#bp $bp The bright spot in the results was buried deep And it's the first estimate for the size of Bumerangue 8bn barrels of liquids Split 50-50 oil and condensate That means API is quite high For comparison Buzios the largest offshore oilfield in the world is 11bn barrels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021146135239303208)  2026-02-10T08:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Buzios will reach 2million barrels a day of production in [----] using up to [--] FPSO Capex to develop was estimated to be around 23bn$ with breakeven around 30$ a barrel So in theory #bp could go it alone to develop Bumerangue at a rate of 4-5bn$ a year and add over 50bn$ in Npv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021146139207020705)  2026-02-10T08:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Appraisal will start later in [--] And with this size they ll think and probably find a solution for the high co2 content The read across is also that you might have a conjugate basin play in ultra deep waters off Angola And that explains recent interest from $xom and $shell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021146142973608220)  2026-02-10T08:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#zioc $zioc.l #zanaga iron ore Looks like they gave away nearly all of the upside This is the problem with all these large Capex projects You simply can't raise enough money using retail investors Views on this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021176968092189093)  2026-02-10T10:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#dgi9 Management confirmed what Mr Rhino has been saying for a year.😉 Arqiva equity is worthless (less than vendor finance) It didn't take a genius to figure it outjust a quick look at #arqiva accounts There's plenty of skeletons like this in the PE and funds portfolios #dgi9 Annual results out What a mess. For the avoidance of doubt I honestly think this will be a [--] So avoid They are now left with #arqiva equity and elio network Both of which are unlikely to be worth much And imho #arqiva equity is a [--] #dgi9 Annual results out What a mess. For the avoidance of doubt I honestly think this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021488732252275086)  2026-02-11T07:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"That's why you should always look at the accounts and question Nav"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021488740309344596)  2026-02-11T07:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$bak $lyb $ce $hun $emn $wlk $tse $xom $shel Interesting take and bear case scenario China will simply not cut capacity in #petrochemicals while being a net importer Also expect more supply coming from retrofitting existing high cost units This could potentially mean either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021631648303854079)  2026-02-11T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"More cuts in production in Japan Korea and Europe (while low cost US and middle east struggle) Or possibly the emergence of an archipelago scenario With global macro regions producers protected by tariffs Scenario [--] you avoid the sector Scenario [--] you buy USA products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021631651831291975)  2026-02-11T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Bearing in mind that any swing in the Henry Hub will likely result in possible fall in prices of chemical stocks Views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021631656717668388)  2026-02-11T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"From [--] of the three units construction and coatings where revenue are shrinking quite rapidly and health and protection where the ebitda margin is a pitiful 6.5% Effectively the company can barely afford Capex let alone reducing the debt An equity injection (100m) will only"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021643882413576284)  2026-02-11T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Go so far it will reduce net debt but will not address the underlying issues Another possible solution could be a sale of the adhesive unit to repay debt but you will be left with the two underperforming parts Curious to see the developments I think is worth watching"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021643888218538322)  2026-02-11T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#khc $khc #kraftheinz The reason why #khc pulled the de-merger is because the North American grocery stub is in big trouble. Sales decline of -5% mean that the valuation for the grocery stub would have been minimal And the sum of the parts would have been worth less than now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021703264002052340)  2026-02-11T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The proposed investment in 600m$ in marketing ignores the fundamental problem that a good chunk of brands (Velveeta or Mac and cheese) are obsolete due to changing consumer habits. Guidance for [--] is for sales falling again by 3-5% Net debt continues to increase and will become"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021703266715750477)  2026-02-11T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A problem in the near future (2-3 years). I think they have big trouble ahead but some of the brands are still relevant One I m watching from the sidelines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2021703269827895659)  2026-02-11T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#synt $synt.l #synthomer Stock down another 20% Someone must know the details of the proposed financing And it doesn't take a genius to figure out they are not pretty. I reckon they need more than 100m quid to shore up the balance sheet At that point the dilution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022325357718675738)  2026-02-13T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A boost Overall once you include an operational fluorspar mine with potential for gallium a rare earth projects and the sesana copper licence I get to around 20-40m in market cap conservatively Not dissimilar from other plays I still not have dumped my shares 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2022612263937446222)  2026-02-14T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#tpk $tpk.l #travisperkins Revenue down by 5.7% driven by loss of market share in the merchanting business Sales are down a lot more than the market and point to structural problems within the main unit One to watch but not to touch as these issues are not easy to solve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1849373826594791426)  2024-10-24T08:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#brby Two things stand out for me from the results 1) a broad collapse of sales -22% which is now not sufficient to cover the operating structure 2) the sales decline is global and not confined to specific markets like China It means they have a problem with the product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1857041981102227565)  2024-11-14T12:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"At the moment stock is trading 1.5x rapidly Shrinking sales So key question is how much $monc.mi is willing to risk 3bn is not pocket change So I think that if a bid were to happen it will be mainly in overpriced $monc.mi stock rather than cash See what happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1857041985267265755)  2024-11-14T12:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#burberry $brby.l #brby 😂😂😂😂😂😂 Seriously How do they sell 1bn of this crap I think a bid by $monc.mi #moncler could come and it would make sense But seriously who wears a tie like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1857883563661865465)  2024-11-16T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#ipo #can $can.l If you are wondering why the ipo market does not work Or why there's no activity in #london You can't expect to float overpriced shite like #canal+ that don't make any money for 2.5bn When it's worth less than half that. ( If you are lucky)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1868761264497082663)  2024-12-16T20:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#barn $barn.sw Barry callebaut One to watch Inversely correlated to the #cocoa price. Net debt and working capital increased massively due to the rise in cocoa price If cocoa price plunges they ll be long of rapidly depreciating inventories Curious for other views here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1885788037432344699)  2025-02-01T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#barc $barc.l #barclays Briefly looked at the results The investment banking division has done very well With the increase coming from higher activities in the equity space The us credit card results were also boosted by lower impairments we"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1889971695643213900)  2025-02-13T09:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#crda $crda.l #croda Uninspiring results For me the stock is still very overvalued Market cap of 4.5bn net debt 530m FCF is only 180m Which is nearly entirely absorbed by 150m in dividends What's the point of holding this when 10y gilts are 4.5% Where's the upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1894344399665922531)  2025-02-25T11:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#ocdo $ocdo.l #ocado Two things struck me [--] The only growth is coming from increased numbers of customers No increase from average basket value or size which is very high and will probably fall. [--] operating cash flow well below Capex Technical obsolescence is a big risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1895938237849591980)  2025-03-01T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#barn $barn.sw Another victim of volatility These sleepy companies are not good at managing market risk and volatility Expect #lindt $lisn to follow Will take a look as this is a sector leader #barn $barn.sw Barry callebaut One to watch Inversely correlated to the #cocoa price. Net debt and working capital increased massively due to the rise in cocoa price If cocoa price plunges they ll be long of rapidly depreciating inventories Curious for other views here https://t.co/BmTyxQRZGz #barn $barn.sw Barry callebaut One to watch Inversely correlated to the #cocoa price. Net debt and working"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1910321176104042945)  2025-04-10T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$tpl #tpl Texas Pacific land trust Things are juicy here According to 13F filings Horizon Kinetics asset management has 49% of their assets under management in #tpl They are the largest shareholder with 16% And crucially they continue to buy What can go wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1915005527613997349)  2025-04-23T11:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#bnzl $bnzl.l #bunzl One to keep on your watchlist imho The company has been a compounding machine for years and now has hit headwinds As a result the stock has been cut in half Normally softness in the market don't resolve in [--] months so I expect further pain ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1916417500998250818)  2025-04-27T09:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#brby #burberry $brby.l Another terrible set of results Sales declined another 8% sequentially Across all regions Wholesale -40% It's clear the brand is in trouble I think they will need to slash costs pretty soon Too early to play a turnaround story I m avoiding #brby Two things stand out for me from the results 1) a broad collapse of sales -22% which is now not sufficient to cover the operating structure 2) the sales decline is global and not confined to specific markets like China It means they have a problem with the product https://t.co/ldDnsPHpIB #brby Two things stand out for me from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1922547136450658366)  2025-05-14T06:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#dge $dge.l #diageo 3bn$ in promised fcf from [----] is not enough to sustain current EV of 85bn$ Stock remains pretty expensive Why would I invest in a sector with low growth at 3.5% fcf yield This is my view. Plus debt at 21bn$ can still cause issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1924434660781682733)  2025-05-19T11:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#jmat $jmat.l Stellar disposal They sold the catalysts business at 13x EBITDA And will return [--] per share when the sale complete in [----] Definitely one to have on your watchlist Any weaknesses get in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1925465179413729736)  2025-05-22T08:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#brby #burberry $brby.l The reaction on the q1 trading update imho means the market is still awash with liquidity and is desperate to find investable stories The trading update was mildly disappointing with revenues down 2% and a further FX headwind Outlook is still sketchy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1946118941274779739)  2025-07-18T08:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#tpl $tpl #texas Pacific land trust This is now a 20bn$ company Still too high for something producing 500m$ in fcf per year and 20$ a share in earnings Plus horizon kinetics largest shareholder with 15% has 50% of aum in this company If they turn forced seller this w $tpl #tpl #texas pacific land trust If you are bearish oil and think the Permian will be massively impacted by low oil prices This seems like a good short candidate The company is trading at 30bn mkt cap or 1.5% fcf yield Can someone kindly explain valuation and bull case https://t.co/WmylVjrgxM $tpl #tpl #texas pacific land"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1953908147472502931)  2025-08-08T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#barc $barc.l #Barclays is one of the banks caught out by the sudden collapse of tricolor holdings (subprime auto loans) Exposure should be manageable but a hit of 200-300m$ could be enough to have an effect on quarterly profits. Do remember that provisions are very low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1966775090202185854)  2025-09-13T08:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#pep $pep #pepsico No matter how much you sugarcoat it #pepsi has lost its sparkling Revenue growth anemic at 1.3% and below inflation Cash generation down 13% to 5.5bn$ for the [--] months Fcf is only 3bn$ for the [--] months Too little to sustain a valuation of 190bn$"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1976255602918875547)  2025-10-09T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"With risk free rates around 5% They don't generate enough cash to sustain the dividend let alone the buybacks And as a result the only thing that's growing nicely is gross debt that goes from [--] to 51bn$ in one year This will be big when they are forced to take action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1976255606362140719)  2025-10-09T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#bnzl #bunzl A whole paragraph devoted to saying that sales are flat Headwinds persist with this company and I think with macro slowing they will slow down further. One to watch as underlying business is decent but you risk buying too early Last year this proved dead money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1980568608376840449)  2025-10-21T09:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#dge $dge.l #diageo Be careful on this one chaps Even at multi year lows EV remains at 73bn$ Too high for something generating 3bn$ in fcf for [----] (if they are lucky) Meanwhile sales are falling and other competitors have fared even worse #rco #stz #bf #dge $dge.l #diageo 3bn$ in promised fcf from [----] is not enough to sustain current EV of 85bn$ Stock remains pretty expensive Why would I invest in a sector with low growth at 3.5% fcf yield This is my view. Plus debt at 21bn$ can still cause issues #dge $dge.l #diageo 3bn$ in promised fcf from [----] is not enough to sustain current EV of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1985055090202304594)  2025-11-02T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#kmr $kmr #kenmare I really like this company But I ll buy it the day the mining licence gets renewed At the moment they are negotiating with the #mozambique government for a licence renewal and events with mozal (#s32) make me cautious Otherwise the company is profitable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1987456796949188825)  2025-11-09T09:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Spread_Bet Yes It's one of stock I monitor with Remy Cointreau constellation brands And other drinks/consumers like pepsi coke monster energy Colgate nestle I m not a fan of alcoholic beverages at the moment Debt will become an issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1987596342370173375)  2025-11-09T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Headder86 The whole sector has fallen more than diageo Look at Remy Cointreau or brown foreman You are also battling secular consumption trends It was historically expensive because rates were [--] Now they are 4-5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1987875681405906993)  2025-11-10T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#kmr #kenmare Lowered the [----] guidance for ilmenite production too 900k ton from 1m As a result cost per ton increased Good This means the stock will fall even more and we know this is a coiled spring that can achieve higher production and lower costs As you know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1990788700952043682)  2025-11-18T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#kmr #kenmare resources Attended the presentation last night and it was good To me this looks like a good story that might have short term turbulence Ilmenite price expected to stay weak for a while longer. And the new ore body they will start to mine will initially have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1991443271009333602)  2025-11-20T09:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Privatffm @Henrik115 Nothing was said on the licence I don't know for sure and I m speculating here but I d say electricity is an issue I need to look at the mozal/south32 situation closer as that involved cheap electricity too This is why I think it's worth buying only after the licence renewal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1991479233001214216)  2025-11-20T12:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#eco $eco $eog.v I m very pleased to see #EcoAtlantic securing a corner in stoppage time This should tie them over for another [--] months to [--] year awaiting developments The next step is securing the #orinduik licence which expires on the 13th of Jan Don't be fooled by the Rns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1996506383454494871)  2025-12-04T09:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#navitas has not farmed in they just provided eco with some funds and they have the option to farm in As always #navitas $nvpt is proving to be a shrewd operator. And I think the best prize for them is block [--] They effectively have the option to acquire these assets cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1996506386382152054)  2025-12-04T09:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Active value would do the opposite as the demerger of a lower valued subsidiary is actually dilutive for $ulvr with EPS dropping by around 6% per year This has created an opportunity for smart investors. (Not many left) $micc was decent valued at 10x operating profit imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1998418760705933598)  2025-12-09T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#abf $abf Struggles at Primark continues With sales down in Europe and volatile in the US Food and sugar division weak too This is one to watch imho As current weakness puts pressure to break the group apart And the sum of the parts will be worth more than current price #abf Results were not exciting but I like the company The sum of the parts imho is worth more It's a classic 1980s private equity bid story. Buy load up with debt and break up for a profit. #primark struggled in the UK but has an international expansion strategy #abf Results were not exciting but I like the company The sum of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2009220899476734011)  2026-01-08T11:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Marcelo12650938 Agreed Plant closures will be the key here for me I recently saw South Korea taking action but not much else Ineos is the one to watch over indebted and with lots of European assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2009274081141502029)  2026-01-08T14:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mrricharddavies True But here some of the sectors taken over are complementary rather than not having much fit Like Keurig/dr pepper The market for what they do like sweeteners or pectins have positive secular trends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2010440951949586548)  2026-01-11T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@kingkev1974 Agree on Guyana There was another smaller player active there but sold too early 😢. $apa is another one to look"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2015381665372102875)  2026-01-25T11:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$cvna #carvana Anyone has details Carvana Auto Receivables [----] and [----] haven redeemed So these must be the [----] or [----] vintages Likely the N non prime series as opposed to the P prime series A3 to C classes are still outstanding Anyone has prices for these 🚩 $CVNA: Per our vintage ABS analysis and our proprietary liquidity overlay bridge technically CVNA had to take millions in residual impairement writedown.in Q4 [----]. But will it is the question. For Q1 [----] covenant violations probable. To gain access to our 🚩 $CVNA: Per our vintage ABS analysis and our proprietary liquidity overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2017022965225808213)  2026-01-29T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If they can sustain volumes Curious to see the accounts At least this makes money so it's top 10% of #aim Just not enough for me to get interested Ps $ec #ecopetrol has come off sharply Maybe you want to look into that one 😘"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1855907492242342124)  2024-11-11T09:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#vod $vod.l #vodafone Operating profit boosted by a one off otherwise down They sold lots of assets and instead of bringing down debt they allocated to buybacks and divi Germany down as expected Only positive some inflation that boosted revenue in the UK and other EU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1856287900515577990)  2024-11-12T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#brby Fall in revenues continues Numbers were awful today However there seems to be some truth in the moncler bid story $monc.mi This could be interesting to watch Sitting on sidelines as possible bid stories often don't turn out well #brby #burberry Revenue -22% Are the consumers finally exhausted This could have implications on other stocks of the luxury sector From #lvmh to #wosg These stocks are proxies for the health of the economy and they are indicating a slow down of consumer spending #brby #burberry Revenue -22% Are the consumers finally exhausted This could have implications on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1856968920705462701)  2024-11-14T07:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ec #ecopetrol Another one where government incompetence and ideology are likely to result in another disaster #south #america will never change That's why country risks are so high https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turmoil-colombias-ecopetrol-raises-profit-fears-ahead-us-investment-decision-2024-12-20/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turmoil-colombias-ecopetrol-raises-profit-fears-ahead-us-investment-decision-2024-12-20/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1870357049910915521)  2024-12-21T06:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#brby $brby Shares rallied 70% from the lows on expectations of a bid from $monc.mi that has never materialised The company continues to face operational challenges and falling revenues Probably time to take profit Don't look like the bid is coming soon #brby Fall in revenues continues Numbers were awful today However there seems to be some truth in the moncler bid story $monc.mi This could be interesting to watch Sitting on sidelines as possible bid stories often don't turn out well #brby Fall in revenues continues Numbers were awful today However there seems to be some truth in the moncler"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1872667472429711436)  2024-12-27T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#dge $dge.l #diageo is a stock that will be affected by #trump tariffs They import around 1.6bn$ of tequila from #mexico to the #us Will be interesting to see what happens to all this tequila"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1886199633635860514)  2025-02-02T23:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$bf.b #dge $dge.l Weak results from #brown foreman With tequila sales dropping 13% and weakness across all geographies I d expect continued weaknesses in the spirit business going forward #diageo should be impacted as global tequila leader. The shares have held up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1909909400929599553)  2025-04-09T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#dgi9 Annual results out What a mess. For the avoidance of doubt I honestly think this will be a [--] So avoid They are now left with #arqiva equity and elio network Both of which are unlikely to be worth much And imho #arqiva equity is a 0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1917635681381187850)  2025-04-30T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#lloy #cbg #lloyds decision to nearly double the charge against the motor finance payout to 1.95bn from 1.15bn Would suggest that #cbg 165m is not enough and needs to be closer to 300m That's cutting it a bit too thin against the capital #cbg has set aside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1977631203034566738)  2025-10-13T07:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Even with depressed ilmenite prices They make around 100m$ a year in EBITDA They are cash flow negative due to a large investment they are making And as a results debt has built up and the share price has dropped China dominates the titanium sector and this is a critical metal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1987456799620960728)  2025-11-09T09:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Henrik115 I believe it will be But to me the licence is an issue here Mozal is shutting over a dispute on electricity prices And kenmare uses a lot of electricity to separate ilmenite So there's that to consider A lot of Chinese operators just produce heavy mineral concentrate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1991448175199285613)  2025-11-20T10:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#kaz #kazera global I have taken a nibble 1) trading below placing at 1.5p 2) awaiting news of a grant for a much larger mining concession 3) already in production equity raise used to increase output 4) simple Chinese style operation that can be scaled up easily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1997257185274028465)  2025-12-06T10:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"5) output can be scaled up using deep water port and marine infrastructure in Port Nolloth 6) currently producing heavy mineral concentrate they can move up the value chain by performing magnetic and electrostatic separation of the ilmenite from zircon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/1997257187153121429)  2025-12-06T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"#kmr #kenmare Guidance lowered again This time to 830k ton Due to issues with slime management The company is obviously in a transitional phase while it figures out how to operate the new dredges Capital costs not impacted Ilmenite market continues to be oversupplied #kmr #kenmare Lowered the [----] guidance for ilmenite production too 900k ton from 1m As a result cost per ton increased Good This means the stock will fall even more and we know this is a coiled spring that can achieve higher production and lower costs As you know #kmr #kenmare Lowered the [----] guidance for ilmenite production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2001192686036947366)  2025-12-17T07:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This continues to be on my watchlist One to buy when A) they are granted mine extension B) they sort out operational issues C) the ilmenite cycle turns Then it should be able to deleverage reasonably fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Riccardino999/status/2001192687836307529)  2025-12-17T07:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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