#  @PhilGordonDC Phil Gordon Phil Gordon posts on X about ukraine, russia, israel, iran the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1879241577660583936/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] -91% - [--] Month [---------] +281% - [--] Months [---------] +126% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1879241577660583936/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -74% - [--] Month [--] +73% - [--] Months [---] +61% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1879241577660583936/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +2% - [--] Month [-----] +29% - [--] Months [-----] +98% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1879241577660583936/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) [finance](/list/finance) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [stocks](/list/stocks) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #314, [russia](/topic/russia) #420, [israel](/topic/israel), [iran](/topic/iran), [in the](/topic/in-the), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [for the](/topic/for-the), [china](/topic/china), [west](/topic/west), [hamas](/topic/hamas) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@axios](/creator/undefined) [@gideonrachman](/creator/undefined) [@nytimes](/creator/undefined) [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@foreignaffairs](/creator/undefined) [@tanvimadan](/creator/undefined) [@thomaswright08](/creator/undefined) [@zelenskyyua](/creator/undefined) [@foreignpolicy](/creator/undefined) [@edwardgluce](/creator/undefined) [@potus](/creator/undefined) [@antoniolscosta](/creator/undefined) [@ewong](/creator/undefined) [@lizfriden](/creator/undefined) [@carnegienpp](/creator/undefined) [@marcorubio](/creator/undefined) [@stevewitkoff](/creator/undefined) [@brewerericm](/creator/undefined) [@annakelly47](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "US defense budget is huge but as share of GDP it is near historic postwar low. With China and Russia threatening global order and rising asymmetrical threats seems like bad time for radical cuts. Combined with Trumps abandonment of allies it is recipe for more dangerous world. NEW: Defense Secretary Hegseth has ordered senior leaders at the Pentagon to develop plans for cutting [--] percent from the defense budget in each of the next five years according to a memo obtained by The Washington Post and officials familiar with the matter. NEW: Defense Secretary Hegseth has ordered senior leaders at" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1892545180068114644) 2025-02-20T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Starmer very impressive at Ukraine summit press conference. Diplomatic about US but also strong principled and clear. Same in recent days from von der Leyen Macron Tusk Kallas Baerbock etc. If Ukraine and Europeans continue to stand firm they may manage to thwart Trump push for peace at any price (and get US to come along). Starmer. Spoke to @realDonaldTrump last night. I would not be taking this step down this road if I didnt think it was something that would yield a positive outcome in terms of ensuring that we move togethertowards a lasting peace. -3- Starmer. Spoke to @realDonaldTrump" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1896257766450204918) 2025-03-02T17:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Back to [----] Trump-Zelensky I would like you to do us a favor though What Trump is demanding to sign an agreement providing access to Ukraines minerals in exchange for standing in Putins way: What Trump is demanding to sign an agreement providing access to Ukraines minerals in exchange for standing in Putins way:" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1896665828604670349) 2025-03-03T20:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Vance: "You're not gonna do that if you come to the Oval Office and insult the President." Vance: UK is "some random country that hasn't fought a war in [--] or [--] years." Bad news for Starmer and Macron. Vance confirms the only US security guarantee in Ukraine will be the mineral deal. He also plays down British & French peacekeeping troops as 20k troops from some random country that hasnt fought a war in [--] or [--] years. https://t.co/6bujpsjygX Bad news for Starmer and Macron. Vance confirms the only US security guarantee in Ukraine will be the mineral deal. He also plays down British & French" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1896880140581474729) 2025-03-04T11:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "And he's not even getting anything for it. Thought he could end war by switching sides but has instead only whetted Putin's appetite incentivized Russian attacks alienated closest allies devalued US security guarantees betrayed American values undermined US defense industry and made world safer for aggression. Still not sure the extent to which Americans understand that Trumps demands right now are Putins demands Still not sure the extent to which Americans understand that Trumps demands right now are Putins demands" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1898758815224410475) 2025-03-09T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I genuinely wish him well but so far missiles still raining down on Ukraine despite all of Trumps concessions to Putin which have undermined deterrence everywhere and the Gaza ceasefire has broken down on his watch so not sure what has been so effective. Revealing interview. Steve Witkoff has no background in diplomacy but has turned out to be the most effective American diplomat in a generation. Heres how hes trying to resolve the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. (0:00) What Witkoff Has Learned as Trumps Global Negotiator (4:10) Negotiating With https://t.co/7AUh4gvwke Steve Witkoff has no" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1903425672514568561) 2025-03-22T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Waltz is rightly in trouble but hes actually lucky texts went to @jeffreygoldberg. A less responsible JG could have made decisions that seriously damaged US national security (instead of only revealing natsec teams incompetence recklessness and hypocrisy.) It's an ironic PS to the amazing @JeffreyGoldberg story that the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic is more responsible with US national security information than any of the principals of the Trump national-security team. https://t.co/O0h0FM6gpW https://t.co/47qHhQveUz It's an ironic PS to the amazing @JeffreyGoldberg story that the" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1904341665969529280) 2025-03-25T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If weaponization is the redline Iran could go just back to the [----] deal Trump denounced and withdrew from or keep its entire current program for that matter. Hard to believe that is admins position but wouldnt be first time Witkoff poorly informed. It appears the Trump administration may be open to a nuclear deal with Iran that allows for some enrichment of uranium. New from @jdawsey1's interview with Steve Witkoff https://t.co/mbMRZ9EXJb It appears the Trump administration may be open to a nuclear deal with Iran that allows for some enrichment of uranium. New from @jdawsey1's interview with" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1910779004350849293) 2025-04-11T19:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Three months in and Trumps national security adviser has effectively lost control his defense secretary is without senior staff and overwhelmed by scandals and his secretary of state has given key negotiations to a real estate guy. Adversaries can't believe their luck. Banger of a story from @isaacstanbecker about the chaos that has gripped the NSCincluding that bizarre meeting with Laura Loomer. Mike Waltz still has his job but he has effectively lost control. https://t.co/ivjfrq3vNp Banger of a story from @isaacstanbecker about the chaos that has gripped the NSCincluding that bizarre" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1915887494949687772) 2025-04-25T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rubio keeps repeating that error which only serves to highlight what Iran claims to want: a domestic enrichment program like other countries for civil nuclear energy. You can argue they should not have even that but doing so on basis of false claim is own goal/PR gift to Iran. Araghchi calls out those "repeating falsehoods." Likely he's referring to Sec. Rubio's claim that only countries with nuclear weapons enrich uranium. There are several non-nuclear states that do enrich including Germany Japan and Brazil. Araghchi calls out those "repeating falsehoods." Likely he's referring to Sec." [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1918627431520276552) 2025-05-03T11:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trump promised in March he would hold Iran's leadership responsible for "every shot fired by the Houthis" and there would be "dire consequences" if more attacks. Now he has to either back it up or admit that it was just more bluster. 1/2 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/middleeast/houthi-missile-tel-aviv-israel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/middleeast/houthi-missile-tel-aviv-israel.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1919037596623122542) 2025-05-04T14:33Z [----] followers, 50.1K engagements "It has now also been [--] weeks since administration escalated against Houthis repeatedly bragging about "success" even though stated goals of opening Red Sea and deterring Houthi attacks unmet and costs rising. If goal was to deter Iran so far likely having opposite effect" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1919037598598582736) 2025-05-04T14:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Maybe I wasnt clear. My point was to warn against making threats that you arent prepared to back up not a call for military action against Iran. As I noted the bluster and even strikes on Houthis not working. But responses interesting Rorschach test in Iran debate. The new normal in DC is for Democrats to egg on Trump to take catastrophic action against Iran. Are they so eager for him to fail that they are ready to see the United States walk into a war that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like walks in the park The new normal in DC is for Democrats to egg on Trump to take catastrophic" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1919054584841904613) 2025-05-04T15:40Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements "As Trump arrives in Middle East he has leverage Biden didn't have or wouldn't use--on Israel Iran and Congress--and inherits new strategic landscape. Alas no sign he has the discipline expertise or perseverance to turn that into effective policy. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1922257173985267944) 2025-05-13T11:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And probably fair to assume that situation unlikely to be improved by suddenly expelling thousands of students from our best universities berating the South African president in the Oval Office threatening a 50% tariff on goods from the EU or hosting a dinner for crypto donors. This almost certainly not just result of Chinese subsidies or tech prowess (both real) or even Musk but damage to US brand more generally. Positive views of US way down across Europe. Tourism to US also cratering. Another example of how soft power matters. https://t.co/OWHi2mXBRN This almost certainly not just result" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1925889492331745640) 2025-05-23T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Striking thing about all the hype around Original Sin book is that its thesis is so uncontroversial. By July [--] [----] virtually everyone including Joe Biden agreed he should not be the nominee. Going forward we should absolutely learn lessons from that but we should spend at least as much time reflecting on how his policies over four years left America strategically economically and diplomatically stronger and how much Trump has reversed those trends in only four months. As I wrote in February Trump campaign story of American economic and strategic decline was a myth but his policies could" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1925987545298399483) 2025-05-23T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not just consumers. When George W. Bush imposed unilateral 30% steel tariffs on China and others in [----] it led to an estimated 200K job losses in US manufacturers that use steel--more than the number of jobs in the entire steel industry at the time--and cost $400K per steel job saved. Trump's even bigger unilateral tariffs are the opposite of a policy to bring manufacturing back to the US. The Trump tariff turmoil continues. Whats certain with this latest move is that consumers will pay more for all products containing steel than they otherwise would have done. https://t.co/hB3CztHF5v The" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1928863631929913845) 2025-05-31T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Useful reminder by John Sawers that if Iran regime were to fall unlikely to be replaced by pro-Western liberal successor. Military rule or fragmentation like Iraq Libya Syria or Yemen more likely. https://www.ft.com/content/45bf1ab3-f3e2-4a46-80aa-6a75164d0a97 https://www.ft.com/content/45bf1ab3-f3e2-4a46-80aa-6a75164d0a97" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1934276750902526120) 2025-06-15T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I spoke to @foreignaffairs about the current (and past) conflicts in the Middle East. Thanks to @dankurtzphelan for engaging conversation. Listen to the latest episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview featuring @PhilGordonDC in conversation with editor @dankurtzphelan: https://t.co/xw9j5YEBPA Listen to the latest episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview featuring @PhilGordonDC in conversation with editor @dankurtzphelan: https://t.co/xw9j5YEBPA" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1935302296180768800) 2025-06-18T11:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Even if it was not possible to get a zero enrichment deal with Iran a deal with similar terms to the JCPOA very likely would have been. That would have meant getting rid of all Irans 60% HEU banned enrichment at Fordow limited advanced centrifuges shrunk the LEU stockpile capped enrichment at 3.67% banned heavy water reactors extended the breakout timeline from days to many months and restored IAEA inspections all until [----] and without the risks of war. Those defending Trumps policy have to argue that the results of Saturdays airstrikes are better than that" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1937150509749600430) 2025-06-23T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "White House claims that the Iran strikes were a "resounding success" are wildly premature. We may not know for months or even years and decisions made in Washington in the coming days and weeks will be critical. My piece on this in @ft. "Trumps strikes on Iran were an enormous and unnecessary gamble. But turning them into an actual success will depend on getting the momentous decisions of the next few days right." Read @PhilGordonDC's piece in @ftopinion: https://t.co/2aCAnklZQE "Trumps strikes on Iran were an enormous and unnecessary gamble. But turning them into an actual success will" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1937186684744921487) 2025-06-23T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Excellent on NATO summit by @maxbergmann. Big allied pledges designed to satisfy Trump in desperate hope that making them will keep US committed to Europe (and make implementation unnecessary). But could have opposite effect. https://www.csis.org/analysis/natos-brain-death-hague https://www.csis.org/analysis/natos-brain-death-hague" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1938498608828989466) 2025-06-27T07:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I have acknowledged that the Biden administration failed to do enough to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza while supporting Israel's response to October [--]. But Trump has now been president for over six months more than ample time to test the theory that unconstrained Israeli military action and severe limits on humanitarian assistance is the best way to free the remaining hostages defeat Hamas and bring the Gaza war to an end. The people of Gaza are paying an unspeakable price for an Israeli military operation that has lost legitimacy strategic purpose and a defensible rationale. foreign" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1947755590933213592) 2025-07-22T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Insightful piece by former US Ambassador to Hungary @AmbPressman. It's not just what strongman does but how citizens react. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/hungary-viktor-orban.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/hungary-viktor-orban.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1947956436740526458) 2025-07-23T09:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "When Israel announced a total blockade of Gaza in October [----] Biden successfully opposed it. When Israel did the same in March [----] Trump did nothing and no food water or medicine entered Gaza for over [--] months. Far from opposing such measures the Trump administration actively supported them and Trump has instead called on Israel to finish the job" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949504909810057299) 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ambassador Herzogs comment that Biden never called for ceasefire now was not some sort of revelation. It is true that Biden never supported an unconditional ceasefire that did not include releasing hostages or addressing Hamass future role. We should continue to debate whether (or when) he should have but that is far from saying that US policy under Biden was carte blanche. (I certainly dont think the Israelis saw it that way.)" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949504911768539232) 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Criticism of Biden is totally fair and we must continue to assess and draw lessons from the choices that were made. But Trump should be held to the same standard. His policy actually has been carte blanche and it facilitated the catastrophic Israeli decisions earlier this year that I referred to in my post" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949504913764937998) 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Whatever ones take on past policy it should also be clear that now with Hamas essentially defeated and the humanitarian situation in Gaza beyond unacceptable an Israeli policy in Gaza that consists of pursuing total victory and depriving the population of desperately needed assistance has no defensible rationale" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949504915509797316) 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Wall Street Journal actually ran a headline saying "Trumps Quest for His Own Sovereign Fund Gets $550 Billion Boost From Japan" and reported w/o qualification that Japan would "back U.S. projects of the presidents choosing." Quoted Trump officials but no Japanese sources. 3/ The press reported it straight even though it sounded absurd. $550 billion is 13% of Japan's entire GDP Who believes Japan is investing 13% of its GDP in the U.S. and giving the U.S. 90% of the profits It made no sense. And of course we find out - Trump made it up. 3/ The press reported it straight even though it" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949804363339231649) 2025-07-28T12:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This along with flip flop on H20 chips to China and loosening of export controls all signs of growing Trump desire for summit and trade deal with Xi. Taiwan leaders rightly worried he will sell them out--like he did Ukraine in (failed) quest for better relations with Putin. SCOOP - Trump administration told #Taiwan's President @ChingteLai he could not transit #NewYork en route to Central America. Lai then cancelled the whole trip. https://t.co/MnAUxB0H9X SCOOP - Trump administration told #Taiwan's President @ChingteLai he could not transit #NewYork en route to Central America. Lai then" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1949950456538517687) 2025-07-28T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There will be costs to Europe for such a capitulation. When it comes to sectoral tariffs (and more) Trump will assume he can get all he wants. And he will threaten new tariffs or break his own deal (as with USMCA) when he wants something else. https://www.ft.com/content/11aa3964-5460-405f-981b-9d284f5de354 https://www.ft.com/content/11aa3964-5460-405f-981b-9d284f5de354" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1950536448421376298) 2025-07-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The contrast between Europe's unity willingness to sacrifice and defense of principle on Ukraine and its willingness to cave completely on trade (where it has much more leverage) is striking and hard to understand" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1950536450681745651) 2025-07-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Israeli government says taking all of Gaza will allow it to finish the job. The problem is that is what they said about operations against Khan Younis Rafah Hamass leaders etc. The effect of more war on Hamass ability to threaten Israel marginal compared with the costs. My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but likely wont stop Israel from implementing its catastrophic plan to occupy all of Gaza. https://t.co/Wkb8uN5g3l My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1956151693865111617) 2025-08-15T00:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In addition to undermining whatever was left of US credibility Trumps Alaska capitulation on ceasefire demand so unfortunate because given gaps on key issues war has always been more likely to end as frozen conflict than with comprehensive peace agreement. As war costs rise (and if Trump willing to add pressure Russia) could imagine both sides accepting temporary ceasefire that would at least stop killing and save democratic Ukraine but difficult to imagine detailed agreements on territory security guarantees NATO membership size of Ukraine military de-nazification war crimes accountability" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1957031118642745416) 2025-08-17T10:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After early signs Trump might create selective "daylight" with Netanyahu he has now lined up fully behind him--on expanding the war in Gaza moving the population West Bank settlement expansion and impunity for settler violence--even as Israeli policy has gotten more extreme" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1957556906395861452) 2025-08-18T21:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not clear to me what they are getting for it. Having adopted Putin's positions on ceasefire and territory and dropped sanctions talk Trump then gave Europeans only a vague pledge to "coordinate" on their/not US security guarantees and to "begin arrangements" for another meeting. My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook and are playing it well My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook and are playing it well" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1957751364861272150) 2025-08-19T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Enjoyed my discussion with @annakatrein of @zeitonline about Trump's Ukraine summitry. The European leaders put the best possible face on their visit to the White House but that couldn't mask the fact that they left empty-handed. https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-08/phil-h-gordon-ukraine-gipfel-usa-russland-aussenpolitik https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-08/phil-h-gordon-ukraine-gipfel-usa-russland-aussenpolitik" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1958191363184381975) 2025-08-20T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tom Donilon's review of @EdwardGLuce Brzezinski biography is superb (as is the book itself.) Both underscore Zbigs clear-eyed view of Russia ideological consistency over time and willingness to speak truth to power--all in such contrast to what we see in the White House today. In a review of Zbig by Edward Luce Tom Donilon explains how Zbigniew Brzezinski President Jimmy Carters national security adviser played a crucial role in bringing the Cold War to an end and shaping the world that came after. https://t.co/02a7dJjPGM In a review of Zbig by Edward Luce Tom Donilon explains how Zbigniew" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1959725705480331651) 2025-08-24T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bessent warns that tariff ruling would be diplomatic embarrassment while Trump blows up 25-year strategic relationship with India by trying to win Nobel Prize. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/bessent-lutnick-urge-appeals-court-to-pause-any-order-against-trump-s-tariffstaid=68b200b6c48d640001e94e74&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1961791699073560929) 2025-08-30T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trump blows up 25-year strategic relationship with India by trying to win Nobel Prize but Bessent worries that tariff ruling would be diplomatic embarrassment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/bessent-lutnick-urge-appeals-court-to-pause-any-order-against-trump-s-tariffstaid=68b200b6c48d640001e94e74&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1961793858259321194) 2025-08-30T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Netanyahu calling Gaza City Hamas' "last important stronghold" would be more persuasive had Israel not said virtually the same thing ahead of its attack on Hamas' "last four battalions" in Rafah more than a year ago. Pursuit of "total victory" is never-ending. Rubio in Israel Says a Diplomatic Solution to Gaza War May Not be Possible https://t.co/Imnr4FGg6b Rubio in Israel Says a Diplomatic Solution to Gaza War May Not be Possible https://t.co/Imnr4FGg6b" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1967617044209447092) 2025-09-15T15:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Enjoyed thoughtful discussion with @MarkUrban01 @AmberRuddUK and @Mpolymer on their @CrisisRoomPod. On everything from lessons of Harris campaign to tariffs migration Middle East Ukraine and Trump's chaotic and unprincipled foreign policy. This week @CrisisRoomPod we get real inside the room insights from the Biden White House and @KamalaHarris campaign from @PhilGordonDC who has a key lesson to European leaders about how Trump won and reflects on what might have been with a Harris foreign policy This week @CrisisRoomPod we get real inside the room insights from the Biden White House and" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1968728350798618656) 2025-09-18T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And very costly. In past [--] hours US outvoted on Israel at Security Council 14-1 on Gaza ceasefire and 145-5 (with Palau Paraguay and Nauru) on Abbas UN speech. Alienating a generation of Americans when US last remaining ally doesn't seem like a great idea. Netanyahu seems remarkably indifferent to this trend but its very real https://t.co/IpQr1Yk0np Netanyahu seems remarkably indifferent to this trend but its very real https://t.co/IpQr1Yk0np" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1969361981078405591) 2025-09-20T11:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I don't normally applaud Ted Cruz--and to be clear this is self-interest not principle--but worth highlighting when a leading Republican demonstrates it's possible to distance himself from a Trump policy and the world doesn't end. We'd all be better off if more willing to do so. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned that letting the government threaten to censor voices it doesnt like could hurt the political right if Democrats return to power. https://t.co/Iu8B1tM2ta https://t.co/1y9M3NoHfU Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned that letting the government threaten to censor voices it doesnt like could hurt" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1970073224924012975) 2025-09-22T10:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Taiwan faces real and growing threats but it also has good cards to play. My latest for @ForeignAffairs with @ryanl_hass. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/nobody-lost-taiwan https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/nobody-lost-taiwan" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1970115326076666037) 2025-09-22T13:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump never had any intention of sanctioning Russia even after Putin stiffed him in Alaska so he created conditions designed never to be met. Now Russia can continue to bomb Ukraine with impunity and even violate NATO airspace but US will only sanction Moscow when Hungary agrees. Hungary says it will keep buying Russian oil despite Trumps demand that NATO allies stop. FM Pter Szijjrt told the Guardian its impossible to ensure energy security without Russian supplies dismissing Western officials as fanatics. Hungary and Slovakia remain the only https://t.co/jXbwMt5Yog Hungary says it will keep" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1970440391393743346) 2025-09-23T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This may turn out to be a favor to Netanyahu. By foregoing de jure annexation he can give Trump a win and preserve the Abraham Accords while still expanding settlements subverting the PA and allowing settler violence. Just like he did last time he called off formal annexation. By ruling out West Bank annexation Trump called Netanyahu's bluff @amirtibon https://t.co/Ha1PYHYtpf By ruling out West Bank annexation Trump called Netanyahu's bluff @amirtibon https://t.co/Ha1PYHYtpf" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1972246633816768947) 2025-09-28T10:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We should hope Hamas accepts the Trump peace plan but we should not expect it. It goes well beyond previous plans on disarmament and exile the Trump/Blair oversight board and IDF presence. And it implies--as Trump and Bibi are already saying publicly--that if Hamas doesnt agree to it then Israel has a green light to finish the job and even restrict aid. For Bibi the poison pills in the deal seem to be features not bugs" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1973030991817028003) 2025-09-30T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""History can offer both guidance and hope." Good reminder from @davidashimer that democracies can be saved if people show courage to act. Could add Guatemala and Philippines (ironically given another Marcos) to list of recent examples. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/opinion/poland-election-autocrat-russia-hungary.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/opinion/poland-election-autocrat-russia-hungary.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1973790753768996869) 2025-10-02T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trump has swung from saying if Hamas doesn't accept his deal Israel can "finish the job" to taking Hamas response as a yes and demanding Israel "immediately stop the bombing." Bibi won't like it but he may now have to do ceasefire at least long enough to get the hostages out" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1974423028210811269) 2025-10-04T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The deal doesn't even vaguely "promise" a pathway to Palestinian statehood only acknowledges it as a theoretical possibility if conditions are ever one day in place. To present that as major Bibi concession to Trump has it backwards. Trump compelled Netanyahu to sign onto a clause in the deal promising however vaguely and subject to conditions a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood when one of his main calling cards has been the prevention of a Palestinian state. Well see.https://t.co/cF996OSIsP Trump compelled Netanyahu to sign onto a clause in the deal promising however vaguely and" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1975145584739889306) 2025-10-06T10:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hopeful day in the Middle East. I enjoyed speaking with @gideonrachman about the motivations of the parties Trump's unique role and the longer-term prospects for the deal. What chance for Trumps Gaza peace plan Gideon Rachman https://t.co/simZuyERmV What chance for Trumps Gaza peace plan Gideon Rachman https://t.co/simZuyERmV" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1976243870485839935) 2025-10-09T11:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Other obvious problems: [--]. The Krugman interviews cited are from April [----] just after the "Liberation Day" tariffs that actually did cause markets to crash and interest rates to spike (and Trump to back down);" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380958388060613) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. Krugman actually makes clear that while tariffs "reduce inefficiency raise the cost of living and motivate people to buy fewer imported goods" they "don't usually cause recessions" perhaps the sort of "usual academic caveat" the author has not time for;" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380960040616246) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. Goldman Sachs saying (again in April 2025) odds of a recession were 45% is not exactly predicting a recession let alone a coming apocalypse;" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380961818976369) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5. He fails to note that the extra tax revenue he touts as benefit of tariffs was overwhelmingly paid by U.S. companies and consumers--just a shift in assets from some Americans (and in the case of consumers mostly lower-income ones) to the government;" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380965879066693) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "6. He cherry picks French market turbulence this week as some form of "gotcha" evidence that concerns about U.S. tariffs were misplaced without acknowledging that international equities have outperformed U.S. markets since "Liberation Day";" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380967992967608) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "That Trump would press Kyiv for concessions was to be expected and might have even given Zelensky cover to make difficult compromises to end the war. That Trump and his negotiators are siding with Russia is a threat not just to Ukraine but to the entire international system. In the Biden Administration I favored efforts to end the war in Ukraine. But I am shocked by how Trump is preemptively conceding everything and selling out Ukraine. The message to every US partner around the world--and those who threaten them--is that you can't count on the US. In the Biden Administration I favored" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1892149497003696290) 2025-02-19T09:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "And total Japanese FDI in US is also $750bn so no way they are giving Trump $550bn to invest at his discretion and then keep 90% of the profits. Fact that Japanese lead negotiator says he "doesn't remember" discussing implementation another good reason to doubt Lutnik's take. The entire annual budget of the government of Japan is around $750 billion. So no they are not giving Donald Trump 3/4 of their budget. The entire annual budget of the government of Japan is around $750 billion. So no they are not giving Donald Trump 3/4 of their budget" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1948750788303446192) 2025-07-25T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "They put the same lie in the official "fact sheet." And worse thing is it is those very American businesses farmers and ranchers who will pay most of the $90bn undercutting their own competitiveness. @Bretbaier knows this too but allows Lutnik to mislead his viewers. Why is it so common for USA politicians to lie and why do their journalists let them get away with it The EU will pay 0% and he knows it. In Europe the journalist would not let him get away with it. Why are they so timid in the USA Why is it so common for USA politicians to lie and why do their journalists let them get away with" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1950888296520749157) 2025-07-31T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's bad for all those reasons but also because like other defenses of Trump tariffs it is based on a straw man. Pointing out that tariffs didn't cause "the end of the world" and that free markets can cope with "wars plagues and revolutions" is not exactly a strong defense. 1/10 Matthew Lynn's WaPo piece claims economists were wrong about tariffs. Economists are a diverse group so you can definitely find mistakes. But overall it's a bad piece. Cherry-picking data timeline confusion and misunderstanding basic tax data and incidence. https://t.co/o7NLEQPbEl Matthew Lynn's WaPo piece claims" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1977380955137458428) 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Excited to see this. Worked with Dan in White House -- has the energy values determination and experience to be just the sort of rising star the party needs. My name is Dan Koh and Im running for Congress in MA-6 to end Donald Trumps attack on our democracy and make life more affordable for everyone. I don't back down from a fight. I'll use my experience at all levels of government to deliver on Day [--]. Join Us. https://t.co/aMJTovWYFJ My name is Dan Koh and Im running for Congress in MA-6 to end Donald Trumps attack on our democracy and make life more affordable for everyone. I don't back" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1978838908503744674) 2025-10-16T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Amazing how Trump falls for Putin praise every time (this time about "Peace in the Middle East" and First Lady). So no mention of ongoing Russian drone and missile barrages on Kyiv but instead assertions of "great progress"--just like we heard after Alaska summit two months ago. https://t.co/jNmAK2smgw https://t.co/jNmAK2smgw" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1978893720968728906) 2025-10-16T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Don't know how many times but pattern started two days after inauguration. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/22/nx-s1-5270883/trump-threat-russia-ukraine-war-tariffs-sanctions https://www.npr.org/2025/01/22/nx-s1-5270883/trump-threat-russia-ukraine-war-tariffs-sanctions" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1979173863725412616) 2025-10-17T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Always worth reading @NathanThrall but we have to get away from the notion that Trump "bullied Netanyahu" into major concessions. Netanyahu accepted the ceasefire after having had freedom of action against Hamas for two years (9 months under Trump that included blockade and aid cutoff) and only when the deal included virtually everything he wanted. Long way to go before concluding that Trump not Netanyahu is now calling the shots. Spoke to @NewYorker's @IChotiner about the absence of accountability for Israel the Gaza ceasefire that is being mistakenly described as peace and the West's" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1979515175741886614) 2025-10-18T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Fair question. I'd start with resuming direct US military support to Ukraine energy sanctions not dependent on Hungary and diplomatic pressure on Russia rather than blaming Ukraine for the war. Also not sure what prewar deal you think Putin would have accepted to avoid it. @PhilGordonDC He facilitated Ukr. strikes on Russian oil refineries sent a nuclear sub near Russia pressured India to stop purchasing Russian oil etc. How much risk and resources do you demand exactly Biden-Harris should have negotiated before the war to prevent it rather than leaving @PhilGordonDC He facilitated Ukr." [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1979532196383006826) 2025-10-18T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Which reflects public opinion in their countries. 77% of Dutch have "no confidence" in Trump to "do the right thing regarding world affairs." For Germany 81% Sweden 85% France 78% UK 62% Canada 77% Japan 61% Australia 77% South Korea 67% Mexico 91% Turkey 80% etc. Leaders of U.S. allies have to go through motions of flattering Trump doing deals and expressing confidence in relationship but senior officials and professionals know they can't trust U.S. administration. We will see more of this. Leaders of U.S. allies have to go through motions of flattering Trump doing deals and expressing" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1980590300302373371) 2025-10-21T11:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Good to see Trump team working to prevent return to Gaza war but worth noting silence on West Bank--where there have been disturbing reports this week of settler violence attacks on olive harvest and land confiscation. Needs to be part of conversation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/opinion/israel-gaza-city-west-bank-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/opinion/israel-gaza-city-west-bank-trump.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1980599875709333903) 2025-10-21T11:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "New US and EU energy sanctions US backing strikes on Russian infrastructure Europe moving to make $200bn frozen Russian assets available to Ukraine all while Russian ground offensive going nowhere and casualties rising. Worst state of play for Russia since Trump took office. A 1-2 punch: The EU has adopted sanctions that target Russias gas sector just one day after our American partners agree to do the same. A great example of how two allies can be stronger when acting together. A 1-2 punch: The EU has adopted sanctions that target Russias gas sector just one day after our American partners" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1981354239109845027) 2025-10-23T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As Trump touts summit as a 12/10 (recall he said failed Alaska summit with Putin was 10/10) note that China's "concessions" (on rare earths soybeans shipping fees) merely reverse steps taken in retaliation to Trump's own policies. After all that we are largely back where we started other than the much higher tariffs that US consumers pay. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-meets-xi-for-high-stakes-u-s-china-summit-a9c7738fmod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-meets-xi-for-high-stakes-u-s-china-summit-a9c7738fmod=hp_lead_pos1" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1983859062992146510) 2025-10-30T11:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is the key point: compared with Jan [----] Chinese tariffs on US are up 50%; US tariffs on China (paid for by Americans) are up 100%+; US access to rare earths are more limited; and US farmers lost $ billions. Not much to show for it beyond China's vague Fentanyl pledge. Policy evaluation 101: Set the baseline. Trump took office Jan [--] so compare outcomes to Jan [--]. "Less bad than last week" is not "good." Tariffs still higher soybean sales lower rare earth access tighter than on Jan [--]. https://t.co/rcvxMJGdBc Policy evaluation 101: Set the baseline. Trump took office Jan [--] so compare" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1984614024412111158) 2025-11-01T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Netanyahu has always sold himself as the master of understanding U.S. politics but pitching a 20-year multi-billion dollar security agreement -- even with "America First tweaks" -- seems disconnected from the post-Gaza reality. Scoop: Israel is seeking a new 20-year security agreement with the U.S. doubling the usual term and adding "America First" modifications to win the Trump administration's support Israeli and U.S. officials told me. My story on @axios https://t.co/iK2RTCVyUI Scoop: Israel is seeking a new 20-year security agreement with the U.S. doubling the usual term and adding" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1989414792495575060) 2025-11-14T19:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Argument that "there are important differences between Venezuela and Iraq or Libya" reminds me how often we heard about the "important differences" between Iraq and Vietnam Libya and Iraq etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/venezuela-trump-maduro.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/venezuela-trump-maduro.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1990816064586789073) 2025-11-18T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fawning after the U.S. president is not only humiliating it doesnt work. My latest for @FT on why allied obsequiousness is not the right way to deal with Trump. https://on.ft.com/4835LFa https://on.ft.com/4835LFa" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1991559749301678096) 2025-11-20T17:30Z [----] followers, 58.6K engagements "How do Europeans have so little agency here even when were now paying the entire bill is a good question. It is past time for Europe to make use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and counter Russia rather than rely on fantasy that Trump will finally change his mind. European and Ukrainian officials have rejected Donald Trumps latest proposal for a lopsided peace deal that favors Moscow warning that caving in to Russia will only encourage Vladimir Putin to attack NATO next. https://t.co/6h2XaVkB1z European and Ukrainian officials have rejected Donald Trumps latest proposal for a" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1991651036566786314) 2025-11-20T23:33Z [----] followers, 50.2K engagements "US seems to think that the proposed security guarantee makes up for all the concessions to Russia. But a pledge by Trump not backed by Congress for which US demands compensation and which only applies to a significant deliberate and sustained attack is no guarantee at all. FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEE: 🚨This Framework establishes the conditions for an armistice between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security assurance modeled on the principles of Article [--] of the North Atlantic Treaty FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1991914435137647091) 2025-11-21T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "They have plenty to complain about. Europeans are now paying for nearly all assistance to Ukraine have huge interests at stake and have bent over backwards to work with the Trump administrationwhich just betrayed them with a deal negotiated with the Russians behind their backs. US is acting Europeans are complaining -- US is acting Europeans are complaining --" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1992237353583456667) 2025-11-22T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The explanation that the proposal resulted from incompetence or infighting would actually reflect better on the administration than the explanation that it was authored by the U.S. RUBIO: UKRAINE PEACE PROPOSAL WAS AUTHORED BY THE U.S. RUBIO: UKRAINE PEACE PROPOSAL WAS AUTHORED BY THE U.S" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1992417942659821648) 2025-11-23T02:20Z [----] followers, 27.7K engagements "Main reason to have national security adviser and staff is to ensure coordination of complex policy issues like Ukraine. NSC helps keep negotiators on same page and coordinates messaging with Congress and press. In absence of that process you get fiascos like this. It appears that somebody instructed Marco Rubio to go along with the story unfolding and it looks to me that this resulted from the following chain of events. I will lay it out here: Everything points to the direction that Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev were hammering out this [--] https://t.co/oWJoIJSsb0 It appears that somebody" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1992611826165743864) 2025-11-23T15:10Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements "Honestly nobody is "really angry that the Trump administration may finally bring a four year conflict in Eastern Europe to a close." They are angry about the US embrace of a Russia-inspired proposal that Ukraine could never accept and only encourages Putin to maintain his maximalist demands. Vance said a few years ago "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another" and is now angry that it turns out some of his colleagues--apparently including the Secretary of State--do. And that they seem to think it possible to care about our interests and values abroad at the same time as" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1993298724940918921) 2025-11-25T12:40Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements "Trump is making no secret of how he is now thinking about China. He wants successful summits with Xi and a big trade deal and doesn't want regional or security issues to get in the way. The problem is that Xi can see that too. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-after-call-with-chinas-xi-told-japan-to-lower-the-volume-on-taiwan-3af795d6st=LkFTFp&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-after-call-with-chinas-xi-told-japan-to-lower-the-volume-on-taiwan-3af795d6st=LkFTFp&reflink=article_copyURL_share" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1993831850448703763) 2025-11-26T23:58Z [----] followers, 28.2K engagements "Opponents of allowing Ukraine to use the frozen assets can't explain why that would rattle European financial markets any more than freezing them indefinitely with no intention to return them which has already happened. Especially if done in conjunction with G7 partners so alleged risks are shared among world's main financial markets. As U.S. cuts aid to Ukraine and tries to force it to make concessions to Russia failure to make use of the frozen assets may come to be seen as Europe's biggest failure of the war. https://www.ft.com/content/d870b430-e887-4a2a-9e73-187b60a2a63a" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1994044113058926911) 2025-11-27T14:02Z [----] followers, 35.1K engagements "Nobody is asking Belgium to "sustain on its own the risks and exposures that would arise from the option of reparations loan" which would rightly be shared across EU. Letter full of straw men and hides behind international law in ways that would reward Russia for violating it. A brutal letter from the Belgians. Frozen assets proposal is fundamentally wrong unequivocal risks and could undermine peace talks. Good luck with this one. Big December clash brewing in Brussels. https://t.co/Z2Hm2UgeCO A brutal letter from the Belgians. Frozen assets proposal is fundamentally wrong unequivocal risks" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1994394604758880536) 2025-11-28T13:15Z [----] followers, 43.3K engagements "That's one of the straw men I was referring to. The US Europeans UK and Japan all immobilized Russian assets in [----] and have repeatedly said they will do so until Russia "ends its aggression and pays for the damage caused to Ukraine" but that has not deterred anyone from holding dollars euros sterling or yen since then. As long as G7 countries work together--even if the bulk of the assets are in the EU--an EU repatriation loan would not have major impact on the euro or on the sovereign credit ratings of the EU countries as ratings agencies have said. It would on the other hand change the" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1994762894114775145) 2025-11-29T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Past week only underscores what has long been clear: Admin approach to Europe is 100% conditional transactional and subordinate to financial and commercial interests. Mara Karlin and I have forthcoming @ForeignAffairs piece on urgent need for US allies to work on Plan B. This week will bring a split screen that will reinforce growing doubts in Europe about the American commitment to the alliance that has served as the bedrock of Western unity since the end of World War II https://t.co/jlLtidjZQc This week will bring a split screen that will reinforce growing doubts in Europe about the" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1996384201093124459) 2025-12-04T01:00Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements "In addition to these excellent points we have spent years insisting our alliesJapan Netherlands Taiwan Gulf countries etcforego profits and endure friction with China for what we insisted were critical national security reasons. Now sending message floodgates can open. This is a seachange in U.S. policy and a significant strategic mistake. If the United States sells AI chips to China that are [--] months behind the frontier it negates the biggest U.S. advantage over China in AI. Here are four reasons that this new policy helps China much more This is a seachange in U.S. policy and a significant" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1998283835591856305) 2025-12-09T06:49Z [----] followers, 41K engagements "Hard to see how Ukraine could accept this deal in return for a guarantee from Trump who may not even be prepared to enforce NATO actual Article [--] let alone a pale version of it. If Trump won't provide arms to Ukraine now hard to see him defending it in future based on a pledge. From @IgnatiusPost the shape of a possible deal. The hardest for Ukraine is to relinquish free parts of Donbas. Much depends on security & whether the US is truly committed. And fast-track EU accession for Ukraine is the EUs call not USs. https://t.co/8sbPJjaswF From @IgnatiusPost the shape of a possible deal. The" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1999098453419249816) 2025-12-11T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It took far too long for European leaders to accept this reality but good to see Chancellor Merz doing so. The strategy of living in denial and hoping that flattering Trump would spare them the worst has failed. Acknowledging reality is the first step needed to deal with it. Chancellor Merz: Dear friends the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. That's the way it is. The Americans are now very very aggressively pursuing their own interests. And that can https://t.co/Pz3eDwIZu3 Chancellor Merz: Dear friends" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2000158929699979517) 2025-12-14T11:00Z [----] followers, 168K engagements "Rather than focus on security guarantees that from Trump would never be credible Zelensky should insist any deal allow Ukraine to use frozen Russian assets. That would put pressure on Belgium to lift veto and 200bn would provide Ukraine more security than nominal guarantees. We are preparing for a meeting with the American side. There are many important details and we are working thoroughly on every point of every draft. The key thing is that all the steps we agree on with partners must work in practice to deliver guaranteed security. Only reliable https://t.co/yQrn6YupGE We are preparing for" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2000274023121355047) 2025-12-14T18:37Z [----] followers, 45.3K engagements "Impossible to watch Trump on Ukraine over past yearcutting off US mil aid to Ukraine accusing Zelensky of starting the war eager for deals with Russia and questioning actual NATO Article [--] treaty guaranteesand conclude he would back up a nominal guarantee for Ukraine. Russians and Ukrainians have zero belief that the United States will go to war to defend Ukraine whatever platinum standard piece of paper gets signed. Nothing short of deploying U.S. troops on the border of Donbas which is not happening would be a deterrent to the Russians and Ukrainians have zero belief that the United States" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2000934967061438479) 2025-12-16T14:24Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements "I am in Ankara now and get sense that Turks want to resolve this. With Gaza ceasefire cooperation in Syria PKK truce Iran defused progress in Caucasus and with Greece and Cyprus they sense real chance for better ties with US. Removing S-400s obstacle would go a long way. Wow. If true smart move. Buying S-400s from Russia was a bad decision and has come to severely impair Turkeys defensive posture. Wow. If true smart move. Buying S-400s from Russia was a bad decision and has come to severely impair Turkeys defensive posture" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2001356635965640988) 2025-12-17T18:19Z [----] followers, 53.6K engagements "Turkish participation would help legitimize force in eyes of other possible contributors deter Hamas attacks and provide troops others unwilling to send but seems no chance Israel will agree or that Trump will insist. Result may be no force at all (beyond area Israel controls). Both Israel and Hamas are in no rush to get to Phase2 which involves an International Stabilization Force and Hamas surrendering weapons to a Palestinian entity. I don't see how Hamas would disarm without Turkey being part of the Stabilization Force which Israel opposes. Both Israel and Hamas are in no rush to get to" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2001899220052422933) 2025-12-19T06:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ukrainian leaders putting brave face on this result but it is major failure of EU to support Ukraine sanction Russian aggression earn seat at the table and generate leverage for peace. Sad to see Belgian PM say "we avoided division" when division is exactly what EU displayed. Indeed there are moments when one should keep in mind that "Perfect is the enemy of good". It was a long night for European leaders but they were able to come up with a workable result. US$ [---] bln of support Ukraine needs to keep protecting Europe while defending itself 👇 Indeed there are moments when one should keep" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2001906736140354018) 2025-12-19T06:45Z [----] followers, 44.6K engagements "Obviously better than nothing but cant equate borrowing money at taxpayer expense with using assets of aggressor. Merz and VDL proposed path to deliver twice as much to Ukraine and make Russia pay at no cost to EU and divided EU said noin part because Putin and Trump opposed. This is the right take. Big questions over this unusual use of Art. [--] but v surprised by ppl regarding this as somehow an EU failure. This is the right take. Big questions over this unusual use of Art. [--] but v surprised by ppl regarding this as somehow an EU failure" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2001976324609691965) 2025-12-19T11:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In the short time since we wrote this piece: [--]. National Security Strategy harsher on Europe than on Russia and China and calls for cultivating resistance to Europes current trajectory. [--]. Deputy Secretary of State (who previously called NATO a solution in search of a problem) berates and threatens EU and says we cannot pretend that we are partners. [--]. Lead Ukraine negotiator claims Russia is "fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine." [--]. Director of National Intelligence downplays Russian threat to Ukraine and Europe and accuses NATO/EU of trying to drag US into war with Russia. 5." [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2003797062337360288) 2025-12-24T11:57Z [----] followers, 161.3K engagements "For an administration so obsessed with sovereignty extraordinary how easily they seek to deny it to Europeans (who strongly support online safety rules) and ironic to complain about inconsistencies when they clamor about free speech abroad while trying to suppress it at home. I remember thinking last year that this was one of the most chilling letters Id ever read. It treats freedom of speech as merely one factor to be weighed in the balance against detrimental effects on civic discourse and public security. And the letter was targeted specifically https://t.co/IOvqYc0jV6 I remember thinking" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2003808778077282705) 2025-12-24T12:43Z [----] followers, 50.7K engagements "Increasingly clear that 20-point plan more a favor to Netanyahu than major concession to Trump. Israel retained territory freedom of action veto on ISF and PA and now even annexation and settlement prohibitions in doubt. Big test of thesis of powerful Trump calling the shots. The cease-fire in Gaza is more than two months old. But the killing of Palestinians has not yet stopped for more than a day or two at a time. https://t.co/wGqIIe5tEB The cease-fire in Gaza is more than two months old. But the killing of Palestinians has not yet stopped for more than a day or two at a time." [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2004893037915521118) 2025-12-27T12:32Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements "The problem with this argument is that it accepts the fiction that the mass recall of ambassadors is about "representing the president's views" rather than about demanding slavish partisan loyalty willingness to support systemic corruption and the devaluation of expertise. Good piece on this Trumps Ambassadors Recall Is Part of Retooling State Department It is the presidents constitutional prerogative to vet career ambassadors to ensure they can credibly represent his views @amconmag https://t.co/05Hmhn9FBu Good piece on this Trumps Ambassadors Recall Is Part of Retooling State Department It" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2005309388198944795) 2025-12-28T16:06Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements "Can't overstate how dubious a security commitment from Trump would be regardless of the wording. His word means nothing and given his track record in face of ongoing Russian aggression hard to see him seriously confronting Russia in future whatever the agreement says. Reality vs hype. no one yet knows exactly what will be written into the security agreement. Reality vs hype. no one yet knows exactly what will be written into the security agreement" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2005410773301162207) 2025-12-28T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Fine to raise but guileless of Trump to believe that Netanyahu will "take more action" on his own. Trump lifted sanctions against violent settlers and opposes legislation to restore them even as settlements and settler violence break records. Bibi will consider this a free pass. 🚨President Trump and his top advisers asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel's policies in the occupied West Bank during their meeting on Monday. My story on @axios https://t.co/w6gFnJjM3N 🚨President Trump and his top advisers asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel's policies in" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2005998297669066960) 2025-12-30T13:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""A Trump Security Guarantee is Empty Mr. Zelensky." My new piece for @nytimes on why security for Ukraine requires concrete support not pledges from Trump. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/opinion/trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/opinion/trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-us.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2006726259649474842) 2026-01-01T13:56Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements "Would be hard to produce a much worse misreading of my piece which does not say "Zelensky should reject any Trump-brokered peace plan." Nor does it call the plan "insufficient" or express any concern with "future administrations." Suggest @PolymarketIntel try reading it again. Former U.S. national security aide Philip Gordon tells The New York Times that Zelensky should reject any Trump-brokered peace plan. He warns the proposed security guarantee modeled on NATOs Article [--] is insufficient and could let the U.S. withhold help unless an attack is https://t.co/awpqUsN2mq Former U.S. national" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007093546508230922) 2026-01-02T14:16Z [----] followers, 51.2K engagements "Worth recalling that although he later denied it Trump was a strong advocate of regime change in Libya which he said would be "very easy and very quick." Big difference in Venezuela is that he will own it if things go south. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=OTqoz0RYvVM https://www.youtube.com/watchv=OTqoz0RYvVM" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007427879844356231) 2026-01-03T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "May not be wise but it's revealing. Notable that Vance mentions "drug trafficking" and "stolen oil" but not democracy/legitimacy as prerequisites for off ramp. Will be interesting to see if that deal on table for remnants of regime. Im not certain its wise for the to now justify its Venezuela operation with saying that stolen oil must be returned to the United States. That fuels the narrative of the remains of the regime in Caracas. The country has the worlds largest oil reserves. Im not certain its wise for the to now justify its Venezuela operation with saying that stolen oil must be" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007466024895922360) 2026-01-03T14:56Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements "Will indeed be important to remember--as Trump purses an oil deal with Maduro's VP throws the elected leaders under the bus and "runs" Venezuela. Some still pretending this was about legitimacy and freedom when Trump is making clear it was about grabbing oil and looking tough. Important to remember. Important to remember" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007788341199245817) 2026-01-04T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Appreciate this thoughtful thread but don't think the EU statement was a model for anyone. To say int'l law and UN Charter "must" be respected without even saying whether they were violated comes across as weak and indecisive and will be ignored by Trump (and others). And @kajakallas . I think Germany could have gone with this too. https://t.co/W8duWQ2GOd And @kajakallas . I think Germany could have gone with this too. https://t.co/W8duWQ2GOd" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007795133446856948) 2026-01-04T12:43Z [----] followers, 18.5K engagements "This reminds me of Ken Adelman's prediction Iraq would be a "cakewalk" in part because of his confidence in Donald Rumsfeld (whom he would later end up blaming for the mess in Iraq). I would prefer lawmakers had a better answer to "what's next" than "I trust Rubio and Hegseth." BASH: The question is -- what's next JIM JORDAN: What I'm saying is we'll see. I trust Secretary Rubio I trust Secretary Hegseth I trust President Trump and him making decisions that are best for the American people https://t.co/Ju5AggChm9 BASH: The question is -- what's next JIM JORDAN: What I'm saying is we'll see. I" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2007848497484386705) 2026-01-04T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Can't help but see the parallel here with Putin's Russia which also claims special privileges and needs in its "near abroad" and the right to use force to install compliant regimes there. If that sounds hyperbolic listen carefully to what the administration is saying. This is OUR Hemisphere and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened. https://t.co/SXvI868d4Z This is OUR Hemisphere and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened. https://t.co/SXvI868d4Z" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2008513975500370294) 2026-01-06T12:20Z [----] followers, 39.3K engagements "We've gotten to the point where the Secretary of State saying our threats against Greenland don't signal an imminent invasion and we only intend to force Denmark to sell it is meant to be reassuring to our allies. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/rubio-tells-lawmakers-trump-aims-to-buy-greenland-downplays-military-action-5c94e05cmod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/rubio-tells-lawmakers-trump-aims-to-buy-greenland-downplays-military-action-5c94e05cmod=hp_lead_pos1" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2008866520181666106) 2026-01-07T11:41Z [----] followers, 26.7K engagements "Rubio et al keep saying "Latin America is not the Middle East" as if the record of intervention in Latin America (Haiti DR Cuba Nicaragua El Salvador etc) is obviously better--and as if they didn't previously say "Iraq isn't Vietnam" etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/opinion/interesting-times-elliott-abrams.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/opinion/interesting-times-elliott-abrams.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2008922715755872341) 2026-01-07T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump is now pretending that US needs to take Greenland to counter Russia and China. Not only false but hard to imagine a bigger gift to either than to alienate our closest security and economic partners and give them no choice but to pivot away from the US in every way. Full text--which lays out the many ways Denmark has loyally stood by the United States for decades--attached here. Full text--which lays out the many ways Denmark has loyally stood by the United States for decades--attached here" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2009982862154715528) 2026-01-10T13:37Z [----] followers, 26.3K engagements "Regardless of how Iran turns out the regime's refusal to seriously pursue a nuclear deal with Trump will prove to have been a colossal error. As in Venezuela Trump likely would have allowed the repressive regime to remain in place if he achieved his main goals--in Iran's case an end to enrichment and access for U.S. oil companies. Trump could boast about ending Iran's nuclear program in a way Obama never did and Iran regime would have an economic lifeline. Instead regime's stubborn pursuit of a nuclear program primarily designed to ensure its survival may end up being the major factor in its" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2010340457356644498) 2026-01-11T13:18Z [----] followers, 21.8K engagements "Given time it would take for any investment in Venezuela to yield significant revenue Trump is essentially asking oil companies to bet billions that *his successor* would cover for them if something went wrong. Lack of enthusiasm hardly surprising. https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-presses-oil-executives-to-invest-in-venezuelabut-gets-lukewarm-reception-6e4efd78mod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-presses-oil-executives-to-invest-in-venezuelabut-gets-lukewarm-reception-6e4efd78mod=hp_lead_pos1" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2010342198076731788) 2026-01-11T13:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hard to disagree with @gideonrachman that US taking Greenland would mean effective if not formal end of NATO (to extent we are not already there). Which makes European reliance on Trump promises for a Ukraine security guarantee all the more inexplicable. https://www.ft.com/content/56907500-b6f6-4511-a423-368837a2182f https://www.ft.com/content/56907500-b6f6-4511-a423-368837a2182f" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2010723145544777902) 2026-01-12T14:38Z [----] followers, 31.2K engagements "Quite the message to other allies that only US ownership--not Article 5--can prevent Russia and China from taking over NATO territory. Tells you something about how Trump thinks about Article [--]. Most of this is nonsense. - Greenland is important to US missile defence including Golden Dome because of its location and its early-warning radar. A US radar of one sort of another has been there for nearly [--] years without the need for US sovereignty. - Greenland is also Most of this is nonsense. - Greenland is important to US missile defence including Golden Dome because of its location and its" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2011451052835693048) 2026-01-14T14:51Z [----] followers, 77.6K engagements "Denmark and Greenland would have been happy to give US whatever basing access we needed because they were confident the US unlike Russia or China would respect their laws citizens and resources. No one happier with Trump's erosion of that confidence than Russia and China" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2011780388578877597) 2026-01-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 16K engagements "Trump proposing to charge US taxpayers 25% fee on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imports until countries do what theyre not going to do in pursuit of unnecessary and counterproductive goal. We have subsidized Denmark and all of the Countries of the European Union and others for many years by not charging them Tariffs or any other forms of remuneration. Now after Centuries it is time for Denmark to give back World Peace is at stake China and Russia want We have subsidized Denmark and all of the Countries of the European Union and others for many years by not charging them Tariffs or" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2012575905978139128) 2026-01-17T17:21Z [----] followers, 16K engagements "I would have thought that a threat to take part of NATO territory the easy way or the hard way would merit at least a word from the Secretary General about territorial integrity. This is the very sort of approach that leads Trump to think he can pull this off. Spoke with @POTUS regarding the security situation in Greenland and the Arctic. We will continue working on this and I look forward to seeing him in Davos later this week. Spoke with @POTUS regarding the security situation in Greenland and the Arctic. We will continue working on this and I look forward to seeing him in Davos later this" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013016961148428666) 2026-01-18T22:33Z [----] followers, 99.1K engagements "If "mainstream Europe" can't bring itself to rebuff this farcical project--as Trump mocks its leaders threatens its sovereignty and punishes it with tariffs--it will only encourage him to think he can continue to do and get whatever he wants including Greenland and beyond. Its going to be very interesting to see who does - or more significantly who doesnt join Trumps Board of Peace. Hes launching it on Thursday in Davos. France has already nixed it and with Greenland ongoing cant see mainstream Europe joining. Hell get Hungary some Middle Its going to be very interesting to see who does - or" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013538984253665304) 2026-01-20T09:07Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "The main arguments for the EU to accept a wildly imbalanced trade deal last summer was that it would lock in US support for European security and bring clarity and stability to transatlantic trade. That it clearly did neither (or worse) suggests it is time for different approach" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013572637167862066) 2026-01-20T11:21Z [----] followers, 45.5K engagements "A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect order as we enter a world of no order at all. Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods open sea lanes a stable financial system collective security . this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture not a transition . recently great powers have begun using https://t.co/oVSorwTyUT Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013668920893329717) 2026-01-20T17:44Z [----] followers, 37.7K engagements "And I should have added it was a compelling and important speech that deserves to be read in full. Canadians should be proud Europeans grateful and Americans jealous. A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect order as we enter a world of no order at all. A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013747912837042416) 2026-01-20T22:58Z [----] followers, 38K engagements "Trump devoting so much of his speech to made up need to for US to take Greenland while Ukrainians fighting for their lives against Russian aggression is beyond insulting" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013980833237827688) 2026-01-21T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bar so low that ruling out use of force against a NATO ally is received as huge relief. But as insulting as remarks were toward Europeans and NATO they did leave space for Trump to call Danes names and move on to something else. Ok. So big news in Davos is that Trump rules out using force to seize Greenland. Guess the European tripwire deterrent worked after all. Ok. So big news in Davos is that Trump rules out using force to seize Greenland. Guess the European tripwire deterrent worked after all" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2013986007238992257) 2026-01-21T14:44Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "Was surprised to see Zelensky come out guns blazing at Europeans who have been desperately trying to hold the line against Trump efforts to force him to end war with concessions to Russia. His frustration understandable but seemed off-target given moment and audience. Easy to resort to Euro-bashing but he's wrong. It was just three days ago that the European Parliament approved a 90bn support loan for Ukraine which seems to have eluded Zelensky's notice. EU defence spending was also up 11% in [----]. Shell production at around 2m/year. Etc. Easy to resort to Euro-bashing but he's wrong. It was" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2014392718055612556) 2026-01-22T17:40Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements "The Greenland saga may seem like just a big waste of time because we went back to square one but its much worse than that. It did enduring damage to trust in US. Trump said that if Denmark said no we will remember. I suspect our allies will also remember the past few weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2014436364020801857) 2026-01-22T20:33Z [----] followers, 58.7K engagements "This piece by @SophiaBesch says it all and very well. After Davos - what lessons should Europeans take away from this episode of the Greenland crisis New from me this morning for @CarnegieEndow https://t.co/7C3tKCvVCL After Davos - what lessons should Europeans take away from this episode of the Greenland crisis New from me this morning for @CarnegieEndow https://t.co/7C3tKCvVCL" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2014455424230084893) 2026-01-22T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "U.S. ambassador to EU complaining about EU failing to support predictability in trade relations a week after Trump suddenly imposes 10-25% additional tariffs on Europe over Greenland (and then just as quickly cancels them). As President Trump @POTUS said at Davos: The United States cares greatly about the people of Europe. and we believe deeply in the bonds we share." Yet too many in Brussels are missing the point. Some Members of the European Parliament now claim the U.S. is "undermining the As President Trump @POTUS said at Davos: The United States cares greatly about the people of Europe." [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2014599640713253144) 2026-01-23T07:22Z [----] followers, 83.4K engagements "I think the point Jon is that he should not have been invited for a state visit let alone a second one. The strategy of seeking to curry favor with Trump through praise and flattery has utterly failed. The crass insensitivity of these remarks is only matched by their bewildering ignorance. Maybe when he came to the UK for his second state visit he should have gone to the National War Memorial Arboretum in staffordshire and seen the list of names of those who fell. And all this The crass insensitivity of these remarks is only matched by their bewildering ignorance. Maybe when he came to the UK" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2014673011710840925) 2026-01-23T12:14Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements "The horrific scenes on US streets will only accelerate this trend. Tourism was already collapsing. Boycott or fear of attending World Cup in play. Boycotts of US goods and divestment already underway. We are losing innocent lives billions of $ and best allies for no good reason. If you tried to design a plan to get Europeans to unite against the US diversity investments boycott U.S. goods reorient trade reduce tourism and refuse joint action against our adversaries you'd struggle to find a better one than US foreign policy over the past few weeks. If you tried to design a plan to get" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2015362980695756861) 2026-01-25T09:55Z [----] followers, 69.4K engagements "To suggest that Trump is net positive for European security as Rutte does here is just wrong. Even if Europe does eventually spend 5% of GDP on defense (by 2035.) if the reason for that is broken alliance with the US we are all much worse off. https://www.ft.com/content/fe1aad9e-3bd0-48e0-98fa-33fab2fb91dd https://www.ft.com/content/fe1aad9e-3bd0-48e0-98fa-33fab2fb91dd" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2015721556631028123) 2026-01-26T09:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "RT @ForeignAffairs: Even though the risk of U.S. disengagementforeshadowed by the first Trump administrationhas been growing for years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2016099934626345194) 2026-01-27T10:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Indeed. As is fact that the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument welcomed in Washington as a potentially useful tool to deter economic bullying by China is now more likely to be used against the United States. Irony: Von der Leyen is the official who coined "de-risking" back in early [----] to describe curtailing trade relationships with China. Irony: Von der Leyen is the official who coined "de-risking" back in early [----] to describe curtailing trade relationships with China" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2016159184325067203) 2026-01-27T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The security guarantees on offer do not "mirror" Article [--] which is backed by a treaty forward-deployed U.S. forces an integrated military command and a long history. For any territorial concessions Ukraine should be offered concrete material support. https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2016225909674545458) 2026-01-27T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Which was entirely predictable. Trump admin and Israel will now demand access to determine what happened to Iran's HEU and LEU stockpiles residual enrichment capacity and uranium metal work and Iran will likely refuse leading to period of new threats or use of military force. After decades of robust IAEA access to Irans nuclear program were now entering a new and more dangerous phase. The task of understanding whats happening at Irans nuclear sites new and old will fall entirely on intelligence organizations. After decades of robust IAEA access to Irans nuclear program were now entering a new" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940366213693255756) 2025-07-02T11:05Z [----] followers, 21K engagements "If ambassadors from other countries cut off all contacts with us over perceived insults we wouldn't have many contacts left. This only a week after Trump denigrated Polish soldiers' service in Afghanistan. New survey just this week showed a majority of Poles "no longer regard the US as a reliable ally" and that only 35% of Poles had "confidence in the US president to do the right thing regarding world affairs down from 75% a year earlier." Hard to undermine an alliance as solid as US-Poland but this ambassador seems determined to try. Effective immediately we will have no further dealings" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/2019505157097001153) 2026-02-05T20:15Z [----] followers, 171.1K engagements ".@gideonrachman is right: "Europeans should also take heart from the thought that this dark period in the US will not last forever. Liberal forces in the US are in retreat but they have not disappeared. The recklessness and hubris of the Trump administration make it entirely possible that the Maga movement will blow up quite quickly." Great by @gideonrachman: Trump wants a world safe for autocracy. ". there is a network of advanced liberal democracies around the world that will want to work with Europe and the UK including Japan South Korea Australia and Canada."💪 https://t.co/ZVVX82GYJO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894002529131757865) 2025-02-24T12:32Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements "Yes thanks in large part to @antoniocosta (and @vonderleyen) but mostly thanks to @vladimirputin and @donaldtrump. The current combination of Russian threat + US unreliability is also unprecedented and raises prospect of intra-EU co-ordination at levels not seen for decades. The level of intra-EU co-ordination we are seeing in response to Trump [---] is exceptional and unprecedented Thanks in large part to @antoniolscosta So much for the (tired) view that political fragmentation is always more likely than unity The level of intra-EU co-ordination we are seeing in response to Trump [---] is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894710951045152904) 2025-02-26T11:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The European arguments against doing so are not compelling. It won't deter countries from holding euros in future any more than seizing assets indefinitely (which they're already doing) would. The euro won't be more at risk than the dollar (just because most of the frozen assets are in Europe) since US support for principle of seizing assets clear. The legal basis for seizure is sound so long as in context of countermeasures against Russia's clearly wrongful international act (and Russia would get assets back if ever peace deal after reparations). The risk of Pandora's box of WW2 reparations" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1895613584459133049) 2025-02-28T23:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Case for Europe transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine was always strong. As Trump abandons Ukraine it has become far stronger. My new FT piece with Daleep Singh. https://on.ft.com/43pCYdq https://on.ft.com/43pCYdq" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897304620516696371) 2025-03-05T15:14Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements "This is welcome and the conditions may be in place for Trump to get a better deal than Obama got (which may alone be reason enough for Trump to pursue it) and Trump could get a deal through Congress which Biden could not have done. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east Trump says he sent a letter to Iran's leader proposing nuclear deal. My report on @axios https://t.co/xXnKvICvu2 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east Trump says he sent a letter to Iran's leader proposing nuclear deal. My" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1898000914293674123) 2025-03-07T13:20Z [----] followers, 26.4K engagements "Of course negotiated settlements require painful compromise but that is different from blaming Ukraine for the war undermining its leader cutting off defense and intel support refusing security guarantees and doing all that publicly and in advance of the negotiation. We need to stop obsessing about Trump every five seconds (which too many commentators do) and start looking at the big picture: any negotiated agreement will require Ukraine to cede some territory. Distasteful yes. But the facts on the ground dont care about your feelings. We need to stop obsessing about Trump every five seconds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1898768863921143990) 2025-03-09T16:12Z [----] followers, 75.2K engagements "Poland is staunch ally highly pro-American spends 4%+ GDP on defense major purchaser of US defense and energy equipment rising economic player on front lines with adversary. Really hard to see the logic of diplomacy by insult" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1898808482494832805) 2025-03-09T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Excellent by @gideonrachman. Between costly trade wars careless deregulation a reckless foreign policy and the purging of experts from the government under unqualified sycophants a high profile disaster is sadly all too likely in coming years. When it happens Trump will blame others (Biden foreigners his own appointees) and then do everything in his power to avoid the political consequences.The recent precedents of authoritarians losing power in Poland and Brazil (and Guatemala) and opposition signs of life in Hungary and Turkey are indeed signs all is not lost. But as in those cases" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901696858860519685) 2025-03-17T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Also does not seem to know that majorities in all those regions voted for independence from Russia in [----] that Russia tried to conquer the whole country in [----] and that what is really at stake here is the principle of not taking even contested territory by force. The depth of ignorance is something. Not only Steve Witkoff cannot name the five Ukrainian regions hes ready to sign away to Russia he also thinks they had been handed over to Ukraine by Khrushchev. (Crimea is the only one of the five that was transferred in [----] to Ukraine https://t.co/3HKOPPfhRS The depth of ignorance is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1903772019457482942) 2025-03-23T11:33Z [----] followers, 33.6K engagements "Important point. Issue with Houthis never whether they are Iran-backed terrorist group that threatens US interests or whether freedom of navigation in Red Sea important. Question is whether more aggressive military action actually will open up Red Sea and whether costs and risks of doing so are worth it. Global shipping and insurance companies will want to see enduring calm before resuming operations and Houthis (who absorbed [--] years of Saudi bombing and relish role as leaders of "Axis of Resistance" to US and Israel) unlikely to back down so long as Gaza war ongoing. Meanwhile costs of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1904223704386568461) 2025-03-24T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Remarkable how little attention this is getting. Meanwhile Trump and Vance focused like a laser on Greenland. All entry points into Gaza are closed. At the border food is rotting. Medicine is expiring. Vital medical equipment is stuck. If the basic principles of humanitarian law still count the international community must act to uphold them. https://t.co/mQkyexZYvi All entry points into Gaza are closed. At the border food is rotting. Medicine is expiring. Vital medical equipment is stuck. If the basic principles of humanitarian law still count the international community must act to uphold" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905734595381010549) 2025-03-28T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Agree with this whole thread. Trump already failing badly and policy course unsustainable. *Ukraine pivot to Russia failing to bring peace looks weak and most Americans still anti-Putin. *Tariff policy chaotic and unpopular even before higher prices kick in. *Stock markets crashing and new numbers on consumer confidence and inflation expectations alarming. *National security team hurting Trump from Witkoff naivte on Putin and Hamas to Signalgate incompetence and preposterous spin that's not working. *Measles outbreaks in TX OH KS. With cutoff of USAID global efforts on Ebola Malaria M-pox" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905963143248941490) 2025-03-29T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And 100% of Americans are consumers. Now facing higher prices for no good reason. 61% of American adults own stocks or mutual funds. Exposure to the stock market is one of the most common financial characteristics in the electorate more common than having a mortgage or receiving Social Security. And the tariffs economic damage isnt limited to stock prices. 61% of American adults own stocks or mutual funds. Exposure to the stock market is one of the most common financial characteristics in the electorate more common than having a mortgage or receiving Social Security. And the tariffs economic" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908595573726261676) 2025-04-05T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "First worked with Bridget [--] years ago. She is one of most skilled and dedicated foreign service officers of her generation who did heroic work in Ukraine under the most difficult circumstances. Wish her all the best for next steps. Grateful to Amb. Bridget Brink for three remarkable years leading our embassy in Ukraine. Her courage and commitment to Ukraines freedom show our foreign and civil service at their best as does our incredible team at Embassy Kyiv. My enduring gratitude to her and them. https://t.co/W1QcFgmtb4 Grateful to Amb. Bridget Brink for three remarkable years leading our" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910788414783312259) 2025-04-11T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I think its more a question of Witkoffs loose command of facts and language but if he is really prepared to let Iran have unlimited enrichment as long as its not weaponized Trump will have to defend an Iran deal that is worse than Obamas. Also Witkoff's comments to WSJ help clarify the apparent discrepancy between his (and Trump's) suggestion of a verification scheme and stated US policy including the reported contents of Trump's letter. It's the US negotiation strategy. Also Witkoff's comments to WSJ help clarify the apparent discrepancy between his (and Trump's) suggestion of a verification" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910993202431000975) 2025-04-12T09:47Z [----] followers, 107.7K engagements "Only four days ago Witkoff said dismantlement was only our position today and that redline was weaponization. Yesterday he said Iran could enrich to 3.67%. Now Iran must stop and eliminate its enrichment. This is as incoherent as tariff policy with likely similar results. The WH's position has shifted entirely over the course of [--] hours and after the first negotiation with Iran. Some will claim this is a win for the "Iran hawks." In truth it's another win for Iran; it just shows how unserious and unprepared this team is. https://t.co/ANKcpGnyxQ The WH's position has shifted entirely over the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912217052817027297) 2025-04-15T18:50Z [----] followers, 43.3K engagements "We dont know what may have been conveyed to Moscow in private but all indications are that the message is now you have days to make this work and if you dont well blame Ukraine and walk away. Pressure on Ukraine has been consistent; on Moscow nonexistent. Clearly this is absurd but to call it quits without even trying to put pressure on Russia or use leverage in any way against Moscow is quite something. Clearly this is absurd but to call it quits without even trying to put pressure on Russia or use leverage in any way against Moscow is quite something" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1913259795756306498) 2025-04-18T15:54Z [----] followers, 20K engagements "The entire State Dept budget is around 0.6% of federal spending. Yet in name of savings this plan would gut US influence replace experts with loyalists abandon entire continent of Africa and end work on climate refugees and human rights. Trump looking to eliminate Africa operations at State Dept - scoop by @ewong https://t.co/y2a3UQaaN5 via @NYTimes Trump looking to eliminate Africa operations at State Dept - scoop by @ewong https://t.co/y2a3UQaaN5 via @NYTimes" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1913894143455080882) 2025-04-20T09:54Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements "A month ago the White House declared the Houthi campaign to be a "massive success" and dismissed Signalgate as effort to distract. Now turns out it's costing $250m/week and undermining readiness while Red Sea still closed and Houthis firing missiles. With DOD in disarray. Sixth MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down by Houthis since March 3rd; each drone costs about $30 million reports @Liz_Friden The U.S.MQ-9Reaper drone was shot down by the Houthis in Yemen earlier today sources tell Fox News. This is the sixth MQ-9Reaper drone shot down by the Sixth MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down by Houthis since March" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914290616260850033) 2025-04-21T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Text of @araghchi speech looks crafted to get Trump attention. No new JCPOA (previous Iran demand was return to deal) commitment to no nuclear weapon (Trump's redline) robust verification and "trillion-$ opportunity" for US firms (unlike JCPOA.) Trying to steer Trump to yes. When I agreed to present a keynote address before @carnegienpp Iran and the U.S. had not yet set dates for the next round of talks which begin at the expert level on Wednesday and at the principals' level on Saturday. As I underscore in my prepared remarks Iran has no https://t.co/OW2KCswseN When I agreed to present a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914682812143124704) 2025-04-22T14:08Z [----] followers, 23.2K engagements "Rubio didn't so much clarify as contradict Witkoff who spoke about Iran enriching to 3.67% not importing to that level. But if new standard is actually "no domestic enrichment" he'll need to explain how to achieve it without military force since Iran very unlikely to agree. 1/4 So @marcorubio finally sets out background behind the @SteveWitkoff enrichment U-turn and delivers the news almost certainly already signalled to Iranians in Rome that Washingtons big new idea is supplying them with fuel from outside Iram for a civilian nuke program. As-1- So @marcorubio finally sets out background" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915364835199533078) 2025-04-24T11:18Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements "To be clear if Trump team can get Iran to accept deal that bans domestic enrichment has no sunsets and covers ballistic missiles and regional behavior we should all applaud. But more likely they will have to compromise like Obama did or roll the dice with use of force" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1915364840098394595) 2025-04-24T11:18Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements "Witkoff has little experience with the issues he's negotiating but has the confidence to negotiate for hours with Putin and two senior aides apparently without any US staff present. Setting aside the fawning the risk of misunderstanding/miscalculation/getting played is obvious. Yet again Witkoff meets with Putin with no other senior US officials. While Putin has two of his closest aides. This is the 4th Witkoff-Putin meeting this year and Witkoff doesn't appear to have taken a senior diplomat/intel/expert with him to any of them. Yet again Witkoff meets with Putin with no other senior US" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915819088493875698) 2025-04-25T17:23Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements "With no outside security force for Gaza on the horizon and West Bank violence rising we should be looking to increase training of Palestinians willing to provide security and fight terrorism not cutting it. Maybe Rubio has another plan in mind but if not this makes no sense. Scoop: Secretary of State Rubio is considering eliminating the U.S. security coordinator role for the West Bank and Gaza Strip as part of a broader staffing overhaul according to five U.S. Palestinian Arab and Israeli sources. My story on @axios https://t.co/BlIif3SSNI Scoop: Secretary of State Rubio is considering" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917307424366616626) 2025-04-29T19:58Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements "This came out much better than the initial US attempt at extortion (the protection racket without the protection.) It still doesn't provide protection but nor does it require Ukraine to hand over natural resources for past US assistance. If it paves way for future US diplomatic and military support net positive for Ukraine. Ukraine's government has now published the minerals deal agreed with the US yesterday. Here are the first [--] pages. Our @FT story on the deal here: https://t.co/AQXv2niX9w https://t.co/KtHQozaovl Ukraine's government has now published the minerals deal agreed with the US" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917928259788083512) 2025-05-01T13:05Z [----] followers, 20K engagements "I wouldn't say Trump statement "settles an internal debate within the administration" because -contentious issue isn't *goal* of negotiations but *redline*; -a moment later Trump said he'd be "open to hearing" about civil nuclear energy option; -he said he "didn't say anything contradictory" to Rubio who has expressed openness to that option; -Trump is so far removed from details of the issue he said this idea was "pretty new in the dialogue"; -he also repeated "the only thing is they can't have a nuclear weapon." This is basically restatement of Witkoff Wall Street Journal interview a month" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919352144538321327) 2025-05-05T11:23Z [----] followers, 38.4K engagements "Trump wants a "better" Iran nuclear deal than Obama but also doesn't want to go to war. My thoughts for @nytopinion on a possibly way forward: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/opinion/international-world/how-trump-can-close-a-nuclear-deal-with-iran.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/opinion/international-world/how-trump-can-close-a-nuclear-deal-with-iran.html" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921164566211317991) 2025-05-10T11:25Z [----] followers, 36.2K engagements "Very discouraging interview with Witkoff who still seems to think that key to peace is just getting sides in a room and threatening to walk if they don't agree. "They don't like each other.we have to change that." No hint of pressure on Russia. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/12/how-trump-can-reset-his-failed-ukraine-policy/ "Witkoff noted that President Trump has "issued an ultimatum" to the two parties that they need to make progress on a lasting peace otherwise the U.S. is walking away." Not exactly a threat for Putin." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922231430559527143) 2025-05-13T10:04Z [----] followers, 29.8K engagements "For all the talk of Trump breaking with Netanyahu (on Houthis Iran Qatar hostage talks etc.) he has yet to do anything meaningful to get Israel to lift ongoing blockade of Gaza. Senators right to call on him to do so urgently. It's been over two months since the Israeli government has allowed food and medicine into Gaza. That's why I've introduced a resolution with my colleagues urging the Trump Administration to use every tool at their disposal to stop the blockade and allow aid to enter Gaza. https://t.co/5rpoj6iHu9 It's been over two months since the Israeli government has allowed food and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923069917680505079) 2025-05-15T17:36Z [----] followers, 43.2K engagements "Much to hate about Trump foreign policy but Democrats could learn from the willingness to challenge established orthodoxies and ignore feared political costs. My thoughts on this in @FT. https://www.ft.com/content/38c70d15-62f4-49b4-840d-154ba415f97a https://www.ft.com/content/38c70d15-62f4-49b4-840d-154ba415f97a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923429897269125519) 2025-05-16T17:26Z [----] followers, 125.9K engagements "Terrific review of new @EdwardGLuce book by Teddy Bunzel (who used to work for Brzezinski). Zbig (who taught and mentored me years ago) was brilliant original fearless and impossible to pigeon-hole. Kissinger right that world "emptier place" without him. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/16/zbigniew-brzezinski-zbig-review-edward-luce/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/16/zbigniew-brzezinski-zbig-review-edward-luce/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923708787954786439) 2025-05-17T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After weeks of Trump and team showing signs frustration with Putin and hinting at possible harder line increasingly clear that response to Putin snubs will be to just throw in the towel--as Moscow hoped. Trump (again) caught bluffing and Putin freer hand for maximalist goals. Two people briefedon the call with the European leaders and Zelensky said Trump was clear he'd pull the US back from engaging with the war and leave Ukraine and Russia to directly negotiate. He also made no promise of future US sanctions against Russia. https://t.co/c6dpCJHxKI Two people briefedon the call with the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924599811358986524) 2025-05-19T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Europeans had been claiming (and hoping and praying) that Trump was finally starting to come around but now may have to accept he never will" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1924599813493952635) 2025-05-19T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will mean less expertise coordination and vigilance and even more chaotic foreign policy. This is a plan to implement whims/desires from top not to assess risks present options and coordinate govt. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/23/politics/national-security-council-administrative-leave-trump https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/23/politics/national-security-council-administrative-leave-trump" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1926045894836634086) 2025-05-23T22:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Plan seems to be to have one staffer take responsibility for entire regions and issues--an impossible task. On other hand if president is just going to decide and announce things like 50% Europe tariffs without study or coordination then it really doesn't matter. Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will mean less expertise coordination and vigilance and even more chaotic foreign policy. This is a plan to implement whims/desires from top not to assess risks present options and coordinate govt. https://t.co/u6uEEuoYuf Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926343683298746532) 2025-05-24T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not only virtually entire world but majority of Israelis support deal to end war and free hostages yet Netanyahu govt continues to pursue costly illusion of "total victory." Reports of Trump "frustration" but no sign of meaningful opposition to blockade invasion and occupation. Netanyahu had unprecedented international legitimacy to fight back against Hamas after the Oct. [--] terror attacks. But a gradual decline in support as the war dragged on has now turned into a diplomatic tsunami. My story on @axios https://t.co/fUjWbv78RR Netanyahu had unprecedented international legitimacy to fight back" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926708132345966963) 2025-05-25T18:33Z [----] followers, 15K engagements "State Dept now officially disseminating calls for civilizational allies in Europe based on common culture faith familial ties and cultural heritage. Defends AfD Marine Le Pen and Christian nations like Hungary and questions very basis of EU. https://open.substack.com/pub/statedept/p/the-need-for-civilizational-allies-in-europer=amf99&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/statedept/p/the-need-for-civilizational-allies-in-europer=amf99&utm_medium=ios" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927466772153729082) 2025-05-27T20:47Z [----] followers, 469.5K engagements "Insightful @gideonrachman column (h/t @JyShapiro) gets to problem at heart of Trump foreign policy--nobody believes his wild threats. And even where he could be serious (Iran) he invites miscalculation by making them so often. https://www.ft.com/content/714c1096-eb17-40b0-a570-8a051406bc75 https://www.ft.com/content/714c1096-eb17-40b0-a570-8a051406bc75" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929520535056126155) 2025-06-02T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We should focus our outrage on the many genuinely outrageous aspects of Trump's foreign policy and if he happens to get a nuclear deal that is in our interest we should support it. Schumer was wrong to try and kill Obamas Iran deal. Hed be wrong to try and kill Trumps. Schumer was wrong to try and kill Obamas Iran deal. Hed be wrong to try and kill Trumps" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929920166122377357) 2025-06-03T15:16Z [----] followers, 53.6K engagements "The State Department also recently dismissed some of our most senior diplomats in the region (we currently have no ambassadors in Jordan Iraq Saudi Arabia etc.) is deliberately downsizing and hemorrhaging personnel and replaced its top Middle East hand with a political appointee with no diplomatic experience. We have needlessly shed the very people we would need to save American lives should a mass evacuation of Americans become necessary. NEW: The State Department established a new Middle East task force on Thursday designed to be instrumental in the event of a potential mass evacuation of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933317666246115340) 2025-06-13T00:17Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "Trump now portraying Iran strikes as him not chickening out but opposite seems to be the case. He desperately wanted a deal with Iran and publicly and privately told Israel not to strike. A confident Netanyahu called his bluff told him Israel needed to act and Trump felt no choice but to go along. He now has to act as if this was his call but in so doing finds himself having to defend Israel in a war he did not want but could not prevent. Trump tells #Iran that next phase of Israeli attacks will be even more brutal if Tehran does not do a nuclear deal with the US. https://t.co/e6asRz2xLd" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933482746258526348) 2025-06-13T11:13Z [----] followers, 251.2K engagements "The two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Trump could not prevent it so he gave it a green light. Had it gone badly he would have said the US had nothing to do with it (like Rubio did the night of the attack.) Because it seemed to go well he took credit. There are different working hypotheses now about Trump and Israel's attack on Iran. One is that he was greenlighting it the other is that he could not prevent it. There are different working hypotheses now about Trump and Israel's attack on Iran. One is that he was greenlighting it the other is that he could not prevent it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934283643800715605) 2025-06-15T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trumps intel assessment now seems a function of his policy rather than the other way around. (I dont care what my own DNI said). Reminiscent of Downing Street Memo the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. @BrewerEricM Is it possible he doesnt really care about the intel of how close they were or whether the decision had not been made; he was reluctant to go to war relented when he felt he could not hold Israel off anymore then saw it go seemingly well now trying to position himself @BrewerEricM Is it possible he doesnt really care about the intel of how close they were" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935331835673985491) 2025-06-18T13:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Thanks to @gideonrachman for having me on the Rachman Review. We discussed Israels war aims Irans capacity for retaliation and the prospects that the U.S. will again be drawn into war in the Middle East. https://www.ft.com/content/573ca58a-573c-4fb5-97d7-ee6e83bcf263 https://www.ft.com/content/573ca58a-573c-4fb5-97d7-ee6e83bcf263" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935560719023456494) 2025-06-19T04:50Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements "This missing stockpile of HEU would not even exist had Trump not withdrawn from JCPOA which banned it til [----]. Yet by June [----] Irans stockpile of 60% HEU (400kg) was bigger than the amount of allowable 3.67% LEU (300kg) under the deal. via @NYTimes https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/us/politics/iran-nuclear-program-uranium.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/us/politics/iran-nuclear-program-uranium.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938400559704187306) 2025-06-27T00:54Z [----] followers, 63.7K engagements "Those wondering whether Rutte's sycophancy and the headlines created at the NATO summit would have a lasting impact on Trump's approach to European security have their answer. BREAKING: White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive including PAC3 Patriots 155mm artillery rounds GMLRS Stinger AIM-7 and Hellfire missiles. @AnnaKelly47 tells me: This decision was made to put Americas interests first following a BREAKING: White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive including PAC3 Patriots 155mm artillery rounds GMLRS Stinger" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940361403950575824) 2025-07-02T10:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is an admission that the US-Israeli premise for months--that intensified military action and growing civilian suffering will help free the hostages--has been tragically misguided. There is no defensible rationale for a policy that is causing so much human suffering and failing to achieve even its own stated goals. We have decided to bring our team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas which clearly shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. While the mediators have made a great effort Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good We" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948474950727143475) 2025-07-24T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Even if this leads to meaningful change--still obviously TBD--the Israeli government's decision in March to break the ceasefire blockade Gaza and escalate militarily will prove to have been catastrophic. It made no real difference against Hamas led to immeasurable additional suffering in Gaza failed to free any hostages further divided Israeli society and took a huge and undoubtedly lasting toll on Israel's reputation. 🚨🚨🚨The IDF is going to implement humanitarian pauses in the fighting in several population centers in Gaza starting Sunday morning and until Sunday evening to allow the UN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949227327306743857) 2025-07-26T21:56Z [----] followers, 161.1K engagements "Many Israelis especially in current government have dismissed warnings about "losing" US moderates and Dems for years but hard to avoid wake-up call of moderate Senator advocating "end to any US support whatsover" unless Israeli policy changes. NEW from @SenAngusKing: I cannot defend the indefensibleI am through supporting the actions of the current Israeli government and will advocateand votefor an end to any United States support whatsoever until there is a demonstrable change in the direction of Israeli policy https://t.co/i26xIVDWSQ NEW from @SenAngusKing: I cannot defend the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949926709333020676) 2025-07-28T20:15Z [----] followers, 64.9K engagements "In past [--] hrs Trump insults and punishes India; cancels Taiwan president transit; calls into question Australia nuclear sub deal and hits EU with 15% unilateral tariffs. It takes years to build allies' trust and confidence but little time to destroy it (which China must love.) This threat to India just a day after Trump extends a trade truce with China and thanks them for selling us rare earth magnets. The Trump doctrine is to be tougher on allies and partners than on adversaries. https://t.co/ly9tdaCVpG This threat to India just a day after Trump extends a trade truce with China and thanks" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950649586323980439) 2025-07-30T20:07Z [----] followers, 66.6K engagements "Days after Israeli settler whose sanctions by Biden were lifted by Trump kills a Palestinian activist the State Dept sanctionsthe PA. Trump and others seem more exercised by calls to recognize Palestinian state than by West Bank violence and Gaza. https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/07/sanctioning-officials-of-the-palestinian-authority-and-members-of-the-palestine-liberation-organization/ https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/07/sanctioning-officials-of-the-palestinian-authority-and-members-of-the-palestine-liberation-organization/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950923227762504032) 2025-07-31T14:15Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements "The likely costs of an Israeli full occupation or annexation of Gaza so vastly exceed the benefits that the only possible explanation is Netanyahus desire to preserve his coalition. That would also explain why government pursues it even as so many former IDF and Mossad leaders and majority of Israeli public favor end of war and hostage deal. Incremental further damage to already decimated Hamas not worth thousands more starving and dead Palestinian civilians; enduring pain or death of Israeli hostages; risk of insurgency; additional IDF casualties; growing reservist burdens and suicides;" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952723352449081789) 2025-08-05T13:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump is managing to halt Indias divorce from Russia and [--] years of deepening ties with US. Modi is also going to China next month for first time in [--] years after period of deep freeze in relationship w Beijing. Big price to pay for tariffs and trash talk. Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend President Putin. I thanked him for sharing the latest developments on Ukraine. We also reviewed the progress in our bilateral agenda and reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954052350278349285) 2025-08-09T05:29Z [----] followers, 34.6K engagements "I spoke to @yarotrof for this excellent deep-dive on Russian oil trade. To have meaningful impact on efforts to end Ukraine war by cutting Russian oil revenues Trump will have to do more than India tariffs. Tools are availableand oil market will tolerateif Trump willing to use. How much damage can Trump inflict on the Russian oil trade and could it compel Putin to end the war in Ukraine Out deep dive with @tggrove https://t.co/z0NlVYwsyU How much damage can Trump inflict on the Russian oil trade and could it compel Putin to end the war in Ukraine Out deep dive with @tggrove" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954059658949538209) 2025-08-09T05:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Recall that in his interview with Tucker Carlson Witkoff couldnt name the five regions of Ukraine Russia had taken didnt know that all of them voted for independence from Russia in [----] and thought Khrushchev had given them all to Ukraine. Details dont seem to be his forte. "He misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of a "peaceful withdrawal" by the Russians from these regions." https://t.co/Vex1IqlsP3 "He misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954481977371091111) 2025-08-10T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sensible thoughts on Finland model for Ukraine by @gideonrachman (and @alexstubb). Another model is West Germany after [----]. It accepted but did not recognize de facto loss of eastern territory (and agreed not to try to re-take it by force) in exchange for recognition sovereignty right to build up defense forces security guarantees and the right to integrate into Western institutions. Then became prosperous stable democracy that eventually got eastern lands back admittedly decades later. Not a perfect model or outcome but achievable with US and European supportand better than indefinite war" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954783405612363887) 2025-08-11T05:54Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements "Superb piece on why Trump cozying up to Pakistan at expense of US relations with India. Modis (accurate) public denial that Trump helped defuse recent conflict (in contrast to Pakistan nominating him for Nobel Prize) a big factor. Decisions driven not by interests but by pique. How Pakistan wooed Trump and rattled India https://t.co/y1FEv4WhWT How Pakistan wooed Trump and rattled India https://t.co/y1FEv4WhWT" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954952407911371120) 2025-08-11T17:05Z [----] followers, 28.6K engagements "My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but likely wont stop Israel from implementing its catastrophic plan to occupy all of Gaza. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/14/trump-save-israel-netanyahu-gaza/tpcc=recirc_latest062921 https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/14/trump-save-israel-netanyahu-gaza/tpcc=recirc_latest062921" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955983567668044171) 2025-08-14T13:23Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements "Tanvi right that this is win-win for Russia and thus hardly effective leverage. But Bessent knows he has a boss who is unwilling to confront Putin and wants a summit and trade deal with China so all he can propose is to hit India instead. + beyond not caring Putin would benefit if Trump hits India instead and that weakens India-US ties strengthens calls in India to do more with Russia and makes India more willing to make up with China. + beyond not caring Putin would benefit if Trump hits India instead and that weakens India-US ties strengthens calls in India to do more with Russia and makes" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956370107808235909) 2025-08-15T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Wouldnt hold my breath for the constructive details of agreement to be revealed. Trump couldnt agree to what Putin demanded but also couldnt admit summit was a failure so agreed to pretend progress was made. And now all he has to offer is advice that Ukraine make a deal. Since a deal to end the war was never going to have been finalized today by definition the lack of a deal doesnt make this meeting a failure. Whether it was a success is impossible to say until we know the details. And the leaders revealed none today-clearly by mutual agreement Since a deal to end the war was never going to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956540556706017709) 2025-08-16T02:16Z [----] followers, 62.1K engagements "It would have been better to have the European leaders join Trump's meeting with Putin and give Zelensky the red carpet summit than the other way around" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957058572220567802) 2025-08-17T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump's main ask of the Europeans tomorrow should be to transfer the more than $200 bn in frozen Russian assets they hold to Ukraine. It would cost the US nothing it could be used to buy US arms and it would increase the leverage needed to end the war on terms they can accept" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957215136055218520) 2025-08-17T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Win-win for Russia it is. Navarro doubling down on additional sanctions on India to "hit it where it hurts" while administration declines to sanction either China or Russia itself. @tanvi_madan https://www.ft.com/content/286160e0-c0e6-4899-ad5c-3aa6dce85e82 Tanvi right that this is win-win for Russia and thus hardly effective leverage. But Bessent knows he has a boss who is unwilling to confront Putin and wants a summit and trade deal with China so all he can propose is to hit India instead. https://www.ft.com/content/286160e0-c0e6-4899-ad5c-3aa6dce85e82 Tanvi right that this is win-win for" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957329865884987836) 2025-08-18T06:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The "-like" part of "NATO-like security guarantees" doing a lot of work here. The most relevant characteristics of Article [--] are that it: -says an armed attack on one shall be considered an attack against all; -is codified in a Senate-approved treaty; -is not subject to third-party veto; and -has been interpreted to mean US readiness to use force to uphold. 1/3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/17/trump-zelensky-meeting-europe/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/17/trump-zelensky-meeting-europe/" [X Link](https://x.com/PhilGordonDC/status/1957432346749100046) 2025-08-18T13:20Z [----] followers, 57.8K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@PhilGordonDC Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon posts on X about ukraine, russia, israel, iran the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Month [--] +73%
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Social Influence
Social category influence countries finance travel destinations technology brands fashion brands currencies luxury brands celebrities stocks social networks
Social topic influence ukraine #314, russia #420, israel, iran, in the, tariffs, for the, china, west, hamas
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @axios @gideonrachman @nytimes @ft @realdonaldtrump @foreignaffairs @tanvimadan @thomaswright08 @zelenskyyua @foreignpolicy @edwardgluce @potus @antoniolscosta @ewong @lizfriden @carnegienpp @marcorubio @stevewitkoff @brewerericm @annakelly47
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"US defense budget is huge but as share of GDP it is near historic postwar low. With China and Russia threatening global order and rising asymmetrical threats seems like bad time for radical cuts. Combined with Trumps abandonment of allies it is recipe for more dangerous world. NEW: Defense Secretary Hegseth has ordered senior leaders at the Pentagon to develop plans for cutting [--] percent from the defense budget in each of the next five years according to a memo obtained by The Washington Post and officials familiar with the matter. NEW: Defense Secretary Hegseth has ordered senior leaders at"
X Link 2025-02-20T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Starmer very impressive at Ukraine summit press conference. Diplomatic about US but also strong principled and clear. Same in recent days from von der Leyen Macron Tusk Kallas Baerbock etc. If Ukraine and Europeans continue to stand firm they may manage to thwart Trump push for peace at any price (and get US to come along). Starmer. Spoke to @realDonaldTrump last night. I would not be taking this step down this road if I didnt think it was something that would yield a positive outcome in terms of ensuring that we move togethertowards a lasting peace. -3- Starmer. Spoke to @realDonaldTrump"
X Link 2025-03-02T17:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Back to [----] Trump-Zelensky I would like you to do us a favor though What Trump is demanding to sign an agreement providing access to Ukraines minerals in exchange for standing in Putins way: What Trump is demanding to sign an agreement providing access to Ukraines minerals in exchange for standing in Putins way:"
X Link 2025-03-03T20:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Vance: "You're not gonna do that if you come to the Oval Office and insult the President." Vance: UK is "some random country that hasn't fought a war in [--] or [--] years." Bad news for Starmer and Macron. Vance confirms the only US security guarantee in Ukraine will be the mineral deal. He also plays down British & French peacekeeping troops as 20k troops from some random country that hasnt fought a war in [--] or [--] years. https://t.co/6bujpsjygX Bad news for Starmer and Macron. Vance confirms the only US security guarantee in Ukraine will be the mineral deal. He also plays down British & French"
X Link 2025-03-04T11:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"And he's not even getting anything for it. Thought he could end war by switching sides but has instead only whetted Putin's appetite incentivized Russian attacks alienated closest allies devalued US security guarantees betrayed American values undermined US defense industry and made world safer for aggression. Still not sure the extent to which Americans understand that Trumps demands right now are Putins demands Still not sure the extent to which Americans understand that Trumps demands right now are Putins demands"
X Link 2025-03-09T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I genuinely wish him well but so far missiles still raining down on Ukraine despite all of Trumps concessions to Putin which have undermined deterrence everywhere and the Gaza ceasefire has broken down on his watch so not sure what has been so effective. Revealing interview. Steve Witkoff has no background in diplomacy but has turned out to be the most effective American diplomat in a generation. Heres how hes trying to resolve the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. (0:00) What Witkoff Has Learned as Trumps Global Negotiator (4:10) Negotiating With https://t.co/7AUh4gvwke Steve Witkoff has no"
X Link 2025-03-22T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Waltz is rightly in trouble but hes actually lucky texts went to @jeffreygoldberg. A less responsible JG could have made decisions that seriously damaged US national security (instead of only revealing natsec teams incompetence recklessness and hypocrisy.) It's an ironic PS to the amazing @JeffreyGoldberg story that the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic is more responsible with US national security information than any of the principals of the Trump national-security team. https://t.co/O0h0FM6gpW https://t.co/47qHhQveUz It's an ironic PS to the amazing @JeffreyGoldberg story that the"
X Link 2025-03-25T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If weaponization is the redline Iran could go just back to the [----] deal Trump denounced and withdrew from or keep its entire current program for that matter. Hard to believe that is admins position but wouldnt be first time Witkoff poorly informed. It appears the Trump administration may be open to a nuclear deal with Iran that allows for some enrichment of uranium. New from @jdawsey1's interview with Steve Witkoff https://t.co/mbMRZ9EXJb It appears the Trump administration may be open to a nuclear deal with Iran that allows for some enrichment of uranium. New from @jdawsey1's interview with"
X Link 2025-04-11T19:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Three months in and Trumps national security adviser has effectively lost control his defense secretary is without senior staff and overwhelmed by scandals and his secretary of state has given key negotiations to a real estate guy. Adversaries can't believe their luck. Banger of a story from @isaacstanbecker about the chaos that has gripped the NSCincluding that bizarre meeting with Laura Loomer. Mike Waltz still has his job but he has effectively lost control. https://t.co/ivjfrq3vNp Banger of a story from @isaacstanbecker about the chaos that has gripped the NSCincluding that bizarre"
X Link 2025-04-25T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rubio keeps repeating that error which only serves to highlight what Iran claims to want: a domestic enrichment program like other countries for civil nuclear energy. You can argue they should not have even that but doing so on basis of false claim is own goal/PR gift to Iran. Araghchi calls out those "repeating falsehoods." Likely he's referring to Sec. Rubio's claim that only countries with nuclear weapons enrich uranium. There are several non-nuclear states that do enrich including Germany Japan and Brazil. Araghchi calls out those "repeating falsehoods." Likely he's referring to Sec."
X Link 2025-05-03T11:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trump promised in March he would hold Iran's leadership responsible for "every shot fired by the Houthis" and there would be "dire consequences" if more attacks. Now he has to either back it up or admit that it was just more bluster. 1/2 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/middleeast/houthi-missile-tel-aviv-israel.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/middleeast/houthi-missile-tel-aviv-israel.html"
X Link 2025-05-04T14:33Z [----] followers, 50.1K engagements
"It has now also been [--] weeks since administration escalated against Houthis repeatedly bragging about "success" even though stated goals of opening Red Sea and deterring Houthi attacks unmet and costs rising. If goal was to deter Iran so far likely having opposite effect"
X Link 2025-05-04T14:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Maybe I wasnt clear. My point was to warn against making threats that you arent prepared to back up not a call for military action against Iran. As I noted the bluster and even strikes on Houthis not working. But responses interesting Rorschach test in Iran debate. The new normal in DC is for Democrats to egg on Trump to take catastrophic action against Iran. Are they so eager for him to fail that they are ready to see the United States walk into a war that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like walks in the park The new normal in DC is for Democrats to egg on Trump to take catastrophic"
X Link 2025-05-04T15:40Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements
"As Trump arrives in Middle East he has leverage Biden didn't have or wouldn't use--on Israel Iran and Congress--and inherits new strategic landscape. Alas no sign he has the discipline expertise or perseverance to turn that into effective policy. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east"
X Link 2025-05-13T11:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And probably fair to assume that situation unlikely to be improved by suddenly expelling thousands of students from our best universities berating the South African president in the Oval Office threatening a 50% tariff on goods from the EU or hosting a dinner for crypto donors. This almost certainly not just result of Chinese subsidies or tech prowess (both real) or even Musk but damage to US brand more generally. Positive views of US way down across Europe. Tourism to US also cratering. Another example of how soft power matters. https://t.co/OWHi2mXBRN This almost certainly not just result"
X Link 2025-05-23T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Striking thing about all the hype around Original Sin book is that its thesis is so uncontroversial. By July [--] [----] virtually everyone including Joe Biden agreed he should not be the nominee. Going forward we should absolutely learn lessons from that but we should spend at least as much time reflecting on how his policies over four years left America strategically economically and diplomatically stronger and how much Trump has reversed those trends in only four months. As I wrote in February Trump campaign story of American economic and strategic decline was a myth but his policies could"
X Link 2025-05-23T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not just consumers. When George W. Bush imposed unilateral 30% steel tariffs on China and others in [----] it led to an estimated 200K job losses in US manufacturers that use steel--more than the number of jobs in the entire steel industry at the time--and cost $400K per steel job saved. Trump's even bigger unilateral tariffs are the opposite of a policy to bring manufacturing back to the US. The Trump tariff turmoil continues. Whats certain with this latest move is that consumers will pay more for all products containing steel than they otherwise would have done. https://t.co/hB3CztHF5v The"
X Link 2025-05-31T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Useful reminder by John Sawers that if Iran regime were to fall unlikely to be replaced by pro-Western liberal successor. Military rule or fragmentation like Iraq Libya Syria or Yemen more likely. https://www.ft.com/content/45bf1ab3-f3e2-4a46-80aa-6a75164d0a97 https://www.ft.com/content/45bf1ab3-f3e2-4a46-80aa-6a75164d0a97"
X Link 2025-06-15T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I spoke to @foreignaffairs about the current (and past) conflicts in the Middle East. Thanks to @dankurtzphelan for engaging conversation. Listen to the latest episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview featuring @PhilGordonDC in conversation with editor @dankurtzphelan: https://t.co/xw9j5YEBPA Listen to the latest episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview featuring @PhilGordonDC in conversation with editor @dankurtzphelan: https://t.co/xw9j5YEBPA"
X Link 2025-06-18T11:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Even if it was not possible to get a zero enrichment deal with Iran a deal with similar terms to the JCPOA very likely would have been. That would have meant getting rid of all Irans 60% HEU banned enrichment at Fordow limited advanced centrifuges shrunk the LEU stockpile capped enrichment at 3.67% banned heavy water reactors extended the breakout timeline from days to many months and restored IAEA inspections all until [----] and without the risks of war. Those defending Trumps policy have to argue that the results of Saturdays airstrikes are better than that"
X Link 2025-06-23T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"White House claims that the Iran strikes were a "resounding success" are wildly premature. We may not know for months or even years and decisions made in Washington in the coming days and weeks will be critical. My piece on this in @ft. "Trumps strikes on Iran were an enormous and unnecessary gamble. But turning them into an actual success will depend on getting the momentous decisions of the next few days right." Read @PhilGordonDC's piece in @ftopinion: https://t.co/2aCAnklZQE "Trumps strikes on Iran were an enormous and unnecessary gamble. But turning them into an actual success will"
X Link 2025-06-23T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Excellent on NATO summit by @maxbergmann. Big allied pledges designed to satisfy Trump in desperate hope that making them will keep US committed to Europe (and make implementation unnecessary). But could have opposite effect. https://www.csis.org/analysis/natos-brain-death-hague https://www.csis.org/analysis/natos-brain-death-hague"
X Link 2025-06-27T07:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I have acknowledged that the Biden administration failed to do enough to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza while supporting Israel's response to October [--]. But Trump has now been president for over six months more than ample time to test the theory that unconstrained Israeli military action and severe limits on humanitarian assistance is the best way to free the remaining hostages defeat Hamas and bring the Gaza war to an end. The people of Gaza are paying an unspeakable price for an Israeli military operation that has lost legitimacy strategic purpose and a defensible rationale. foreign"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Insightful piece by former US Ambassador to Hungary @AmbPressman. It's not just what strongman does but how citizens react. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/hungary-viktor-orban.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/hungary-viktor-orban.html"
X Link 2025-07-23T09:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When Israel announced a total blockade of Gaza in October [----] Biden successfully opposed it. When Israel did the same in March [----] Trump did nothing and no food water or medicine entered Gaza for over [--] months. Far from opposing such measures the Trump administration actively supported them and Trump has instead called on Israel to finish the job"
X Link 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ambassador Herzogs comment that Biden never called for ceasefire now was not some sort of revelation. It is true that Biden never supported an unconditional ceasefire that did not include releasing hostages or addressing Hamass future role. We should continue to debate whether (or when) he should have but that is far from saying that US policy under Biden was carte blanche. (I certainly dont think the Israelis saw it that way.)"
X Link 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Criticism of Biden is totally fair and we must continue to assess and draw lessons from the choices that were made. But Trump should be held to the same standard. His policy actually has been carte blanche and it facilitated the catastrophic Israeli decisions earlier this year that I referred to in my post"
X Link 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Whatever ones take on past policy it should also be clear that now with Hamas essentially defeated and the humanitarian situation in Gaza beyond unacceptable an Israeli policy in Gaza that consists of pursuing total victory and depriving the population of desperately needed assistance has no defensible rationale"
X Link 2025-07-27T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Wall Street Journal actually ran a headline saying "Trumps Quest for His Own Sovereign Fund Gets $550 Billion Boost From Japan" and reported w/o qualification that Japan would "back U.S. projects of the presidents choosing." Quoted Trump officials but no Japanese sources. 3/ The press reported it straight even though it sounded absurd. $550 billion is 13% of Japan's entire GDP Who believes Japan is investing 13% of its GDP in the U.S. and giving the U.S. 90% of the profits It made no sense. And of course we find out - Trump made it up. 3/ The press reported it straight even though it"
X Link 2025-07-28T12:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This along with flip flop on H20 chips to China and loosening of export controls all signs of growing Trump desire for summit and trade deal with Xi. Taiwan leaders rightly worried he will sell them out--like he did Ukraine in (failed) quest for better relations with Putin. SCOOP - Trump administration told #Taiwan's President @ChingteLai he could not transit #NewYork en route to Central America. Lai then cancelled the whole trip. https://t.co/MnAUxB0H9X SCOOP - Trump administration told #Taiwan's President @ChingteLai he could not transit #NewYork en route to Central America. Lai then"
X Link 2025-07-28T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There will be costs to Europe for such a capitulation. When it comes to sectoral tariffs (and more) Trump will assume he can get all he wants. And he will threaten new tariffs or break his own deal (as with USMCA) when he wants something else. https://www.ft.com/content/11aa3964-5460-405f-981b-9d284f5de354 https://www.ft.com/content/11aa3964-5460-405f-981b-9d284f5de354"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The contrast between Europe's unity willingness to sacrifice and defense of principle on Ukraine and its willingness to cave completely on trade (where it has much more leverage) is striking and hard to understand"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Israeli government says taking all of Gaza will allow it to finish the job. The problem is that is what they said about operations against Khan Younis Rafah Hamass leaders etc. The effect of more war on Hamass ability to threaten Israel marginal compared with the costs. My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but likely wont stop Israel from implementing its catastrophic plan to occupy all of Gaza. https://t.co/Wkb8uN5g3l My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but"
X Link 2025-08-15T00:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In addition to undermining whatever was left of US credibility Trumps Alaska capitulation on ceasefire demand so unfortunate because given gaps on key issues war has always been more likely to end as frozen conflict than with comprehensive peace agreement. As war costs rise (and if Trump willing to add pressure Russia) could imagine both sides accepting temporary ceasefire that would at least stop killing and save democratic Ukraine but difficult to imagine detailed agreements on territory security guarantees NATO membership size of Ukraine military de-nazification war crimes accountability"
X Link 2025-08-17T10:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After early signs Trump might create selective "daylight" with Netanyahu he has now lined up fully behind him--on expanding the war in Gaza moving the population West Bank settlement expansion and impunity for settler violence--even as Israeli policy has gotten more extreme"
X Link 2025-08-18T21:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not clear to me what they are getting for it. Having adopted Putin's positions on ceasefire and territory and dropped sanctions talk Trump then gave Europeans only a vague pledge to "coordinate" on their/not US security guarantees and to "begin arrangements" for another meeting. My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook and are playing it well My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook and are playing it well"
X Link 2025-08-19T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Enjoyed my discussion with @annakatrein of @zeitonline about Trump's Ukraine summitry. The European leaders put the best possible face on their visit to the White House but that couldn't mask the fact that they left empty-handed. https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-08/phil-h-gordon-ukraine-gipfel-usa-russland-aussenpolitik https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-08/phil-h-gordon-ukraine-gipfel-usa-russland-aussenpolitik"
X Link 2025-08-20T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tom Donilon's review of @EdwardGLuce Brzezinski biography is superb (as is the book itself.) Both underscore Zbigs clear-eyed view of Russia ideological consistency over time and willingness to speak truth to power--all in such contrast to what we see in the White House today. In a review of Zbig by Edward Luce Tom Donilon explains how Zbigniew Brzezinski President Jimmy Carters national security adviser played a crucial role in bringing the Cold War to an end and shaping the world that came after. https://t.co/02a7dJjPGM In a review of Zbig by Edward Luce Tom Donilon explains how Zbigniew"
X Link 2025-08-24T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bessent warns that tariff ruling would be diplomatic embarrassment while Trump blows up 25-year strategic relationship with India by trying to win Nobel Prize. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/bessent-lutnick-urge-appeals-court-to-pause-any-order-against-trump-s-tariffstaid=68b200b6c48d640001e94e74&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter"
X Link 2025-08-30T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trump blows up 25-year strategic relationship with India by trying to win Nobel Prize but Bessent worries that tariff ruling would be diplomatic embarrassment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/bessent-lutnick-urge-appeals-court-to-pause-any-order-against-trump-s-tariffstaid=68b200b6c48d640001e94e74&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter"
X Link 2025-08-30T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Netanyahu calling Gaza City Hamas' "last important stronghold" would be more persuasive had Israel not said virtually the same thing ahead of its attack on Hamas' "last four battalions" in Rafah more than a year ago. Pursuit of "total victory" is never-ending. Rubio in Israel Says a Diplomatic Solution to Gaza War May Not be Possible https://t.co/Imnr4FGg6b Rubio in Israel Says a Diplomatic Solution to Gaza War May Not be Possible https://t.co/Imnr4FGg6b"
X Link 2025-09-15T15:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Enjoyed thoughtful discussion with @MarkUrban01 @AmberRuddUK and @Mpolymer on their @CrisisRoomPod. On everything from lessons of Harris campaign to tariffs migration Middle East Ukraine and Trump's chaotic and unprincipled foreign policy. This week @CrisisRoomPod we get real inside the room insights from the Biden White House and @KamalaHarris campaign from @PhilGordonDC who has a key lesson to European leaders about how Trump won and reflects on what might have been with a Harris foreign policy This week @CrisisRoomPod we get real inside the room insights from the Biden White House and"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And very costly. In past [--] hours US outvoted on Israel at Security Council 14-1 on Gaza ceasefire and 145-5 (with Palau Paraguay and Nauru) on Abbas UN speech. Alienating a generation of Americans when US last remaining ally doesn't seem like a great idea. Netanyahu seems remarkably indifferent to this trend but its very real https://t.co/IpQr1Yk0np Netanyahu seems remarkably indifferent to this trend but its very real https://t.co/IpQr1Yk0np"
X Link 2025-09-20T11:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I don't normally applaud Ted Cruz--and to be clear this is self-interest not principle--but worth highlighting when a leading Republican demonstrates it's possible to distance himself from a Trump policy and the world doesn't end. We'd all be better off if more willing to do so. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned that letting the government threaten to censor voices it doesnt like could hurt the political right if Democrats return to power. https://t.co/Iu8B1tM2ta https://t.co/1y9M3NoHfU Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) warned that letting the government threaten to censor voices it doesnt like could hurt"
X Link 2025-09-22T10:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Taiwan faces real and growing threats but it also has good cards to play. My latest for @ForeignAffairs with @ryanl_hass. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/nobody-lost-taiwan https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/nobody-lost-taiwan"
X Link 2025-09-22T13:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump never had any intention of sanctioning Russia even after Putin stiffed him in Alaska so he created conditions designed never to be met. Now Russia can continue to bomb Ukraine with impunity and even violate NATO airspace but US will only sanction Moscow when Hungary agrees. Hungary says it will keep buying Russian oil despite Trumps demand that NATO allies stop. FM Pter Szijjrt told the Guardian its impossible to ensure energy security without Russian supplies dismissing Western officials as fanatics. Hungary and Slovakia remain the only https://t.co/jXbwMt5Yog Hungary says it will keep"
X Link 2025-09-23T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This may turn out to be a favor to Netanyahu. By foregoing de jure annexation he can give Trump a win and preserve the Abraham Accords while still expanding settlements subverting the PA and allowing settler violence. Just like he did last time he called off formal annexation. By ruling out West Bank annexation Trump called Netanyahu's bluff @amirtibon https://t.co/Ha1PYHYtpf By ruling out West Bank annexation Trump called Netanyahu's bluff @amirtibon https://t.co/Ha1PYHYtpf"
X Link 2025-09-28T10:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We should hope Hamas accepts the Trump peace plan but we should not expect it. It goes well beyond previous plans on disarmament and exile the Trump/Blair oversight board and IDF presence. And it implies--as Trump and Bibi are already saying publicly--that if Hamas doesnt agree to it then Israel has a green light to finish the job and even restrict aid. For Bibi the poison pills in the deal seem to be features not bugs"
X Link 2025-09-30T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""History can offer both guidance and hope." Good reminder from @davidashimer that democracies can be saved if people show courage to act. Could add Guatemala and Philippines (ironically given another Marcos) to list of recent examples. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/opinion/poland-election-autocrat-russia-hungary.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/opinion/poland-election-autocrat-russia-hungary.html"
X Link 2025-10-02T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trump has swung from saying if Hamas doesn't accept his deal Israel can "finish the job" to taking Hamas response as a yes and demanding Israel "immediately stop the bombing." Bibi won't like it but he may now have to do ceasefire at least long enough to get the hostages out"
X Link 2025-10-04T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The deal doesn't even vaguely "promise" a pathway to Palestinian statehood only acknowledges it as a theoretical possibility if conditions are ever one day in place. To present that as major Bibi concession to Trump has it backwards. Trump compelled Netanyahu to sign onto a clause in the deal promising however vaguely and subject to conditions a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood when one of his main calling cards has been the prevention of a Palestinian state. Well see.https://t.co/cF996OSIsP Trump compelled Netanyahu to sign onto a clause in the deal promising however vaguely and"
X Link 2025-10-06T10:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hopeful day in the Middle East. I enjoyed speaking with @gideonrachman about the motivations of the parties Trump's unique role and the longer-term prospects for the deal. What chance for Trumps Gaza peace plan Gideon Rachman https://t.co/simZuyERmV What chance for Trumps Gaza peace plan Gideon Rachman https://t.co/simZuyERmV"
X Link 2025-10-09T11:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Other obvious problems: [--]. The Krugman interviews cited are from April [----] just after the "Liberation Day" tariffs that actually did cause markets to crash and interest rates to spike (and Trump to back down);"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. Krugman actually makes clear that while tariffs "reduce inefficiency raise the cost of living and motivate people to buy fewer imported goods" they "don't usually cause recessions" perhaps the sort of "usual academic caveat" the author has not time for;"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. Goldman Sachs saying (again in April 2025) odds of a recession were 45% is not exactly predicting a recession let alone a coming apocalypse;"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5. He fails to note that the extra tax revenue he touts as benefit of tariffs was overwhelmingly paid by U.S. companies and consumers--just a shift in assets from some Americans (and in the case of consumers mostly lower-income ones) to the government;"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"6. He cherry picks French market turbulence this week as some form of "gotcha" evidence that concerns about U.S. tariffs were misplaced without acknowledging that international equities have outperformed U.S. markets since "Liberation Day";"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"That Trump would press Kyiv for concessions was to be expected and might have even given Zelensky cover to make difficult compromises to end the war. That Trump and his negotiators are siding with Russia is a threat not just to Ukraine but to the entire international system. In the Biden Administration I favored efforts to end the war in Ukraine. But I am shocked by how Trump is preemptively conceding everything and selling out Ukraine. The message to every US partner around the world--and those who threaten them--is that you can't count on the US. In the Biden Administration I favored"
X Link 2025-02-19T09:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"And total Japanese FDI in US is also $750bn so no way they are giving Trump $550bn to invest at his discretion and then keep 90% of the profits. Fact that Japanese lead negotiator says he "doesn't remember" discussing implementation another good reason to doubt Lutnik's take. The entire annual budget of the government of Japan is around $750 billion. So no they are not giving Donald Trump 3/4 of their budget. The entire annual budget of the government of Japan is around $750 billion. So no they are not giving Donald Trump 3/4 of their budget"
X Link 2025-07-25T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"They put the same lie in the official "fact sheet." And worse thing is it is those very American businesses farmers and ranchers who will pay most of the $90bn undercutting their own competitiveness. @Bretbaier knows this too but allows Lutnik to mislead his viewers. Why is it so common for USA politicians to lie and why do their journalists let them get away with it The EU will pay 0% and he knows it. In Europe the journalist would not let him get away with it. Why are they so timid in the USA Why is it so common for USA politicians to lie and why do their journalists let them get away with"
X Link 2025-07-31T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's bad for all those reasons but also because like other defenses of Trump tariffs it is based on a straw man. Pointing out that tariffs didn't cause "the end of the world" and that free markets can cope with "wars plagues and revolutions" is not exactly a strong defense. 1/10 Matthew Lynn's WaPo piece claims economists were wrong about tariffs. Economists are a diverse group so you can definitely find mistakes. But overall it's a bad piece. Cherry-picking data timeline confusion and misunderstanding basic tax data and incidence. https://t.co/o7NLEQPbEl Matthew Lynn's WaPo piece claims"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Excited to see this. Worked with Dan in White House -- has the energy values determination and experience to be just the sort of rising star the party needs. My name is Dan Koh and Im running for Congress in MA-6 to end Donald Trumps attack on our democracy and make life more affordable for everyone. I don't back down from a fight. I'll use my experience at all levels of government to deliver on Day [--]. Join Us. https://t.co/aMJTovWYFJ My name is Dan Koh and Im running for Congress in MA-6 to end Donald Trumps attack on our democracy and make life more affordable for everyone. I don't back"
X Link 2025-10-16T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Amazing how Trump falls for Putin praise every time (this time about "Peace in the Middle East" and First Lady). So no mention of ongoing Russian drone and missile barrages on Kyiv but instead assertions of "great progress"--just like we heard after Alaska summit two months ago. https://t.co/jNmAK2smgw https://t.co/jNmAK2smgw"
X Link 2025-10-16T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Don't know how many times but pattern started two days after inauguration. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/22/nx-s1-5270883/trump-threat-russia-ukraine-war-tariffs-sanctions https://www.npr.org/2025/01/22/nx-s1-5270883/trump-threat-russia-ukraine-war-tariffs-sanctions"
X Link 2025-10-17T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Always worth reading @NathanThrall but we have to get away from the notion that Trump "bullied Netanyahu" into major concessions. Netanyahu accepted the ceasefire after having had freedom of action against Hamas for two years (9 months under Trump that included blockade and aid cutoff) and only when the deal included virtually everything he wanted. Long way to go before concluding that Trump not Netanyahu is now calling the shots. Spoke to @NewYorker's @IChotiner about the absence of accountability for Israel the Gaza ceasefire that is being mistakenly described as peace and the West's"
X Link 2025-10-18T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fair question. I'd start with resuming direct US military support to Ukraine energy sanctions not dependent on Hungary and diplomatic pressure on Russia rather than blaming Ukraine for the war. Also not sure what prewar deal you think Putin would have accepted to avoid it. @PhilGordonDC He facilitated Ukr. strikes on Russian oil refineries sent a nuclear sub near Russia pressured India to stop purchasing Russian oil etc. How much risk and resources do you demand exactly Biden-Harris should have negotiated before the war to prevent it rather than leaving @PhilGordonDC He facilitated Ukr."
X Link 2025-10-18T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Which reflects public opinion in their countries. 77% of Dutch have "no confidence" in Trump to "do the right thing regarding world affairs." For Germany 81% Sweden 85% France 78% UK 62% Canada 77% Japan 61% Australia 77% South Korea 67% Mexico 91% Turkey 80% etc. Leaders of U.S. allies have to go through motions of flattering Trump doing deals and expressing confidence in relationship but senior officials and professionals know they can't trust U.S. administration. We will see more of this. Leaders of U.S. allies have to go through motions of flattering Trump doing deals and expressing"
X Link 2025-10-21T11:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Good to see Trump team working to prevent return to Gaza war but worth noting silence on West Bank--where there have been disturbing reports this week of settler violence attacks on olive harvest and land confiscation. Needs to be part of conversation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/opinion/israel-gaza-city-west-bank-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/opinion/israel-gaza-city-west-bank-trump.html"
X Link 2025-10-21T11:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New US and EU energy sanctions US backing strikes on Russian infrastructure Europe moving to make $200bn frozen Russian assets available to Ukraine all while Russian ground offensive going nowhere and casualties rising. Worst state of play for Russia since Trump took office. A 1-2 punch: The EU has adopted sanctions that target Russias gas sector just one day after our American partners agree to do the same. A great example of how two allies can be stronger when acting together. A 1-2 punch: The EU has adopted sanctions that target Russias gas sector just one day after our American partners"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As Trump touts summit as a 12/10 (recall he said failed Alaska summit with Putin was 10/10) note that China's "concessions" (on rare earths soybeans shipping fees) merely reverse steps taken in retaliation to Trump's own policies. After all that we are largely back where we started other than the much higher tariffs that US consumers pay. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-meets-xi-for-high-stakes-u-s-china-summit-a9c7738fmod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-meets-xi-for-high-stakes-u-s-china-summit-a9c7738fmod=hp_lead_pos1"
X Link 2025-10-30T11:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is the key point: compared with Jan [----] Chinese tariffs on US are up 50%; US tariffs on China (paid for by Americans) are up 100%+; US access to rare earths are more limited; and US farmers lost $ billions. Not much to show for it beyond China's vague Fentanyl pledge. Policy evaluation 101: Set the baseline. Trump took office Jan [--] so compare outcomes to Jan [--]. "Less bad than last week" is not "good." Tariffs still higher soybean sales lower rare earth access tighter than on Jan [--]. https://t.co/rcvxMJGdBc Policy evaluation 101: Set the baseline. Trump took office Jan [--] so compare"
X Link 2025-11-01T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Netanyahu has always sold himself as the master of understanding U.S. politics but pitching a 20-year multi-billion dollar security agreement -- even with "America First tweaks" -- seems disconnected from the post-Gaza reality. Scoop: Israel is seeking a new 20-year security agreement with the U.S. doubling the usual term and adding "America First" modifications to win the Trump administration's support Israeli and U.S. officials told me. My story on @axios https://t.co/iK2RTCVyUI Scoop: Israel is seeking a new 20-year security agreement with the U.S. doubling the usual term and adding"
X Link 2025-11-14T19:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Argument that "there are important differences between Venezuela and Iraq or Libya" reminds me how often we heard about the "important differences" between Iraq and Vietnam Libya and Iraq etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/venezuela-trump-maduro.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/venezuela-trump-maduro.html"
X Link 2025-11-18T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fawning after the U.S. president is not only humiliating it doesnt work. My latest for @FT on why allied obsequiousness is not the right way to deal with Trump. https://on.ft.com/4835LFa https://on.ft.com/4835LFa"
X Link 2025-11-20T17:30Z [----] followers, 58.6K engagements
"How do Europeans have so little agency here even when were now paying the entire bill is a good question. It is past time for Europe to make use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and counter Russia rather than rely on fantasy that Trump will finally change his mind. European and Ukrainian officials have rejected Donald Trumps latest proposal for a lopsided peace deal that favors Moscow warning that caving in to Russia will only encourage Vladimir Putin to attack NATO next. https://t.co/6h2XaVkB1z European and Ukrainian officials have rejected Donald Trumps latest proposal for a"
X Link 2025-11-20T23:33Z [----] followers, 50.2K engagements
"US seems to think that the proposed security guarantee makes up for all the concessions to Russia. But a pledge by Trump not backed by Congress for which US demands compensation and which only applies to a significant deliberate and sustained attack is no guarantee at all. FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEE: 🚨This Framework establishes the conditions for an armistice between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security assurance modeled on the principles of Article [--] of the North Atlantic Treaty FULL TEXT OF THE U.S. DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR A"
X Link 2025-11-21T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"They have plenty to complain about. Europeans are now paying for nearly all assistance to Ukraine have huge interests at stake and have bent over backwards to work with the Trump administrationwhich just betrayed them with a deal negotiated with the Russians behind their backs. US is acting Europeans are complaining -- US is acting Europeans are complaining --"
X Link 2025-11-22T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The explanation that the proposal resulted from incompetence or infighting would actually reflect better on the administration than the explanation that it was authored by the U.S. RUBIO: UKRAINE PEACE PROPOSAL WAS AUTHORED BY THE U.S. RUBIO: UKRAINE PEACE PROPOSAL WAS AUTHORED BY THE U.S"
X Link 2025-11-23T02:20Z [----] followers, 27.7K engagements
"Main reason to have national security adviser and staff is to ensure coordination of complex policy issues like Ukraine. NSC helps keep negotiators on same page and coordinates messaging with Congress and press. In absence of that process you get fiascos like this. It appears that somebody instructed Marco Rubio to go along with the story unfolding and it looks to me that this resulted from the following chain of events. I will lay it out here: Everything points to the direction that Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev were hammering out this [--] https://t.co/oWJoIJSsb0 It appears that somebody"
X Link 2025-11-23T15:10Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements
"Honestly nobody is "really angry that the Trump administration may finally bring a four year conflict in Eastern Europe to a close." They are angry about the US embrace of a Russia-inspired proposal that Ukraine could never accept and only encourages Putin to maintain his maximalist demands. Vance said a few years ago "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another" and is now angry that it turns out some of his colleagues--apparently including the Secretary of State--do. And that they seem to think it possible to care about our interests and values abroad at the same time as"
X Link 2025-11-25T12:40Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements
"Trump is making no secret of how he is now thinking about China. He wants successful summits with Xi and a big trade deal and doesn't want regional or security issues to get in the way. The problem is that Xi can see that too. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-after-call-with-chinas-xi-told-japan-to-lower-the-volume-on-taiwan-3af795d6st=LkFTFp&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-after-call-with-chinas-xi-told-japan-to-lower-the-volume-on-taiwan-3af795d6st=LkFTFp&reflink=article_copyURL_share"
X Link 2025-11-26T23:58Z [----] followers, 28.2K engagements
"Opponents of allowing Ukraine to use the frozen assets can't explain why that would rattle European financial markets any more than freezing them indefinitely with no intention to return them which has already happened. Especially if done in conjunction with G7 partners so alleged risks are shared among world's main financial markets. As U.S. cuts aid to Ukraine and tries to force it to make concessions to Russia failure to make use of the frozen assets may come to be seen as Europe's biggest failure of the war. https://www.ft.com/content/d870b430-e887-4a2a-9e73-187b60a2a63a"
X Link 2025-11-27T14:02Z [----] followers, 35.1K engagements
"Nobody is asking Belgium to "sustain on its own the risks and exposures that would arise from the option of reparations loan" which would rightly be shared across EU. Letter full of straw men and hides behind international law in ways that would reward Russia for violating it. A brutal letter from the Belgians. Frozen assets proposal is fundamentally wrong unequivocal risks and could undermine peace talks. Good luck with this one. Big December clash brewing in Brussels. https://t.co/Z2Hm2UgeCO A brutal letter from the Belgians. Frozen assets proposal is fundamentally wrong unequivocal risks"
X Link 2025-11-28T13:15Z [----] followers, 43.3K engagements
"That's one of the straw men I was referring to. The US Europeans UK and Japan all immobilized Russian assets in [----] and have repeatedly said they will do so until Russia "ends its aggression and pays for the damage caused to Ukraine" but that has not deterred anyone from holding dollars euros sterling or yen since then. As long as G7 countries work together--even if the bulk of the assets are in the EU--an EU repatriation loan would not have major impact on the euro or on the sovereign credit ratings of the EU countries as ratings agencies have said. It would on the other hand change the"
X Link 2025-11-29T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Past week only underscores what has long been clear: Admin approach to Europe is 100% conditional transactional and subordinate to financial and commercial interests. Mara Karlin and I have forthcoming @ForeignAffairs piece on urgent need for US allies to work on Plan B. This week will bring a split screen that will reinforce growing doubts in Europe about the American commitment to the alliance that has served as the bedrock of Western unity since the end of World War II https://t.co/jlLtidjZQc This week will bring a split screen that will reinforce growing doubts in Europe about the"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:00Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements
"In addition to these excellent points we have spent years insisting our alliesJapan Netherlands Taiwan Gulf countries etcforego profits and endure friction with China for what we insisted were critical national security reasons. Now sending message floodgates can open. This is a seachange in U.S. policy and a significant strategic mistake. If the United States sells AI chips to China that are [--] months behind the frontier it negates the biggest U.S. advantage over China in AI. Here are four reasons that this new policy helps China much more This is a seachange in U.S. policy and a significant"
X Link 2025-12-09T06:49Z [----] followers, 41K engagements
"Hard to see how Ukraine could accept this deal in return for a guarantee from Trump who may not even be prepared to enforce NATO actual Article [--] let alone a pale version of it. If Trump won't provide arms to Ukraine now hard to see him defending it in future based on a pledge. From @IgnatiusPost the shape of a possible deal. The hardest for Ukraine is to relinquish free parts of Donbas. Much depends on security & whether the US is truly committed. And fast-track EU accession for Ukraine is the EUs call not USs. https://t.co/8sbPJjaswF From @IgnatiusPost the shape of a possible deal. The"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It took far too long for European leaders to accept this reality but good to see Chancellor Merz doing so. The strategy of living in denial and hoping that flattering Trump would spare them the worst has failed. Acknowledging reality is the first step needed to deal with it. Chancellor Merz: Dear friends the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. That's the way it is. The Americans are now very very aggressively pursuing their own interests. And that can https://t.co/Pz3eDwIZu3 Chancellor Merz: Dear friends"
X Link 2025-12-14T11:00Z [----] followers, 168K engagements
"Rather than focus on security guarantees that from Trump would never be credible Zelensky should insist any deal allow Ukraine to use frozen Russian assets. That would put pressure on Belgium to lift veto and 200bn would provide Ukraine more security than nominal guarantees. We are preparing for a meeting with the American side. There are many important details and we are working thoroughly on every point of every draft. The key thing is that all the steps we agree on with partners must work in practice to deliver guaranteed security. Only reliable https://t.co/yQrn6YupGE We are preparing for"
X Link 2025-12-14T18:37Z [----] followers, 45.3K engagements
"Impossible to watch Trump on Ukraine over past yearcutting off US mil aid to Ukraine accusing Zelensky of starting the war eager for deals with Russia and questioning actual NATO Article [--] treaty guaranteesand conclude he would back up a nominal guarantee for Ukraine. Russians and Ukrainians have zero belief that the United States will go to war to defend Ukraine whatever platinum standard piece of paper gets signed. Nothing short of deploying U.S. troops on the border of Donbas which is not happening would be a deterrent to the Russians and Ukrainians have zero belief that the United States"
X Link 2025-12-16T14:24Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements
"I am in Ankara now and get sense that Turks want to resolve this. With Gaza ceasefire cooperation in Syria PKK truce Iran defused progress in Caucasus and with Greece and Cyprus they sense real chance for better ties with US. Removing S-400s obstacle would go a long way. Wow. If true smart move. Buying S-400s from Russia was a bad decision and has come to severely impair Turkeys defensive posture. Wow. If true smart move. Buying S-400s from Russia was a bad decision and has come to severely impair Turkeys defensive posture"
X Link 2025-12-17T18:19Z [----] followers, 53.6K engagements
"Turkish participation would help legitimize force in eyes of other possible contributors deter Hamas attacks and provide troops others unwilling to send but seems no chance Israel will agree or that Trump will insist. Result may be no force at all (beyond area Israel controls). Both Israel and Hamas are in no rush to get to Phase2 which involves an International Stabilization Force and Hamas surrendering weapons to a Palestinian entity. I don't see how Hamas would disarm without Turkey being part of the Stabilization Force which Israel opposes. Both Israel and Hamas are in no rush to get to"
X Link 2025-12-19T06:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ukrainian leaders putting brave face on this result but it is major failure of EU to support Ukraine sanction Russian aggression earn seat at the table and generate leverage for peace. Sad to see Belgian PM say "we avoided division" when division is exactly what EU displayed. Indeed there are moments when one should keep in mind that "Perfect is the enemy of good". It was a long night for European leaders but they were able to come up with a workable result. US$ [---] bln of support Ukraine needs to keep protecting Europe while defending itself 👇 Indeed there are moments when one should keep"
X Link 2025-12-19T06:45Z [----] followers, 44.6K engagements
"Obviously better than nothing but cant equate borrowing money at taxpayer expense with using assets of aggressor. Merz and VDL proposed path to deliver twice as much to Ukraine and make Russia pay at no cost to EU and divided EU said noin part because Putin and Trump opposed. This is the right take. Big questions over this unusual use of Art. [--] but v surprised by ppl regarding this as somehow an EU failure. This is the right take. Big questions over this unusual use of Art. [--] but v surprised by ppl regarding this as somehow an EU failure"
X Link 2025-12-19T11:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In the short time since we wrote this piece: [--]. National Security Strategy harsher on Europe than on Russia and China and calls for cultivating resistance to Europes current trajectory. [--]. Deputy Secretary of State (who previously called NATO a solution in search of a problem) berates and threatens EU and says we cannot pretend that we are partners. [--]. Lead Ukraine negotiator claims Russia is "fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine." [--]. Director of National Intelligence downplays Russian threat to Ukraine and Europe and accuses NATO/EU of trying to drag US into war with Russia. 5."
X Link 2025-12-24T11:57Z [----] followers, 161.3K engagements
"For an administration so obsessed with sovereignty extraordinary how easily they seek to deny it to Europeans (who strongly support online safety rules) and ironic to complain about inconsistencies when they clamor about free speech abroad while trying to suppress it at home. I remember thinking last year that this was one of the most chilling letters Id ever read. It treats freedom of speech as merely one factor to be weighed in the balance against detrimental effects on civic discourse and public security. And the letter was targeted specifically https://t.co/IOvqYc0jV6 I remember thinking"
X Link 2025-12-24T12:43Z [----] followers, 50.7K engagements
"Increasingly clear that 20-point plan more a favor to Netanyahu than major concession to Trump. Israel retained territory freedom of action veto on ISF and PA and now even annexation and settlement prohibitions in doubt. Big test of thesis of powerful Trump calling the shots. The cease-fire in Gaza is more than two months old. But the killing of Palestinians has not yet stopped for more than a day or two at a time. https://t.co/wGqIIe5tEB The cease-fire in Gaza is more than two months old. But the killing of Palestinians has not yet stopped for more than a day or two at a time."
X Link 2025-12-27T12:32Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements
"The problem with this argument is that it accepts the fiction that the mass recall of ambassadors is about "representing the president's views" rather than about demanding slavish partisan loyalty willingness to support systemic corruption and the devaluation of expertise. Good piece on this Trumps Ambassadors Recall Is Part of Retooling State Department It is the presidents constitutional prerogative to vet career ambassadors to ensure they can credibly represent his views @amconmag https://t.co/05Hmhn9FBu Good piece on this Trumps Ambassadors Recall Is Part of Retooling State Department It"
X Link 2025-12-28T16:06Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements
"Can't overstate how dubious a security commitment from Trump would be regardless of the wording. His word means nothing and given his track record in face of ongoing Russian aggression hard to see him seriously confronting Russia in future whatever the agreement says. Reality vs hype. no one yet knows exactly what will be written into the security agreement. Reality vs hype. no one yet knows exactly what will be written into the security agreement"
X Link 2025-12-28T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fine to raise but guileless of Trump to believe that Netanyahu will "take more action" on his own. Trump lifted sanctions against violent settlers and opposes legislation to restore them even as settlements and settler violence break records. Bibi will consider this a free pass. 🚨President Trump and his top advisers asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel's policies in the occupied West Bank during their meeting on Monday. My story on @axios https://t.co/w6gFnJjM3N 🚨President Trump and his top advisers asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel's policies in"
X Link 2025-12-30T13:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""A Trump Security Guarantee is Empty Mr. Zelensky." My new piece for @nytimes on why security for Ukraine requires concrete support not pledges from Trump. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/opinion/trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/opinion/trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-us.html"
X Link 2026-01-01T13:56Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements
"Would be hard to produce a much worse misreading of my piece which does not say "Zelensky should reject any Trump-brokered peace plan." Nor does it call the plan "insufficient" or express any concern with "future administrations." Suggest @PolymarketIntel try reading it again. Former U.S. national security aide Philip Gordon tells The New York Times that Zelensky should reject any Trump-brokered peace plan. He warns the proposed security guarantee modeled on NATOs Article [--] is insufficient and could let the U.S. withhold help unless an attack is https://t.co/awpqUsN2mq Former U.S. national"
X Link 2026-01-02T14:16Z [----] followers, 51.2K engagements
"Worth recalling that although he later denied it Trump was a strong advocate of regime change in Libya which he said would be "very easy and very quick." Big difference in Venezuela is that he will own it if things go south. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=OTqoz0RYvVM https://www.youtube.com/watchv=OTqoz0RYvVM"
X Link 2026-01-03T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"May not be wise but it's revealing. Notable that Vance mentions "drug trafficking" and "stolen oil" but not democracy/legitimacy as prerequisites for off ramp. Will be interesting to see if that deal on table for remnants of regime. Im not certain its wise for the to now justify its Venezuela operation with saying that stolen oil must be returned to the United States. That fuels the narrative of the remains of the regime in Caracas. The country has the worlds largest oil reserves. Im not certain its wise for the to now justify its Venezuela operation with saying that stolen oil must be"
X Link 2026-01-03T14:56Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements
"Will indeed be important to remember--as Trump purses an oil deal with Maduro's VP throws the elected leaders under the bus and "runs" Venezuela. Some still pretending this was about legitimacy and freedom when Trump is making clear it was about grabbing oil and looking tough. Important to remember. Important to remember"
X Link 2026-01-04T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Appreciate this thoughtful thread but don't think the EU statement was a model for anyone. To say int'l law and UN Charter "must" be respected without even saying whether they were violated comes across as weak and indecisive and will be ignored by Trump (and others). And @kajakallas . I think Germany could have gone with this too. https://t.co/W8duWQ2GOd And @kajakallas . I think Germany could have gone with this too. https://t.co/W8duWQ2GOd"
X Link 2026-01-04T12:43Z [----] followers, 18.5K engagements
"This reminds me of Ken Adelman's prediction Iraq would be a "cakewalk" in part because of his confidence in Donald Rumsfeld (whom he would later end up blaming for the mess in Iraq). I would prefer lawmakers had a better answer to "what's next" than "I trust Rubio and Hegseth." BASH: The question is -- what's next JIM JORDAN: What I'm saying is we'll see. I trust Secretary Rubio I trust Secretary Hegseth I trust President Trump and him making decisions that are best for the American people https://t.co/Ju5AggChm9 BASH: The question is -- what's next JIM JORDAN: What I'm saying is we'll see. I"
X Link 2026-01-04T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Can't help but see the parallel here with Putin's Russia which also claims special privileges and needs in its "near abroad" and the right to use force to install compliant regimes there. If that sounds hyperbolic listen carefully to what the administration is saying. This is OUR Hemisphere and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened. https://t.co/SXvI868d4Z This is OUR Hemisphere and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened. https://t.co/SXvI868d4Z"
X Link 2026-01-06T12:20Z [----] followers, 39.3K engagements
"We've gotten to the point where the Secretary of State saying our threats against Greenland don't signal an imminent invasion and we only intend to force Denmark to sell it is meant to be reassuring to our allies. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/rubio-tells-lawmakers-trump-aims-to-buy-greenland-downplays-military-action-5c94e05cmod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/rubio-tells-lawmakers-trump-aims-to-buy-greenland-downplays-military-action-5c94e05cmod=hp_lead_pos1"
X Link 2026-01-07T11:41Z [----] followers, 26.7K engagements
"Rubio et al keep saying "Latin America is not the Middle East" as if the record of intervention in Latin America (Haiti DR Cuba Nicaragua El Salvador etc) is obviously better--and as if they didn't previously say "Iraq isn't Vietnam" etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/opinion/interesting-times-elliott-abrams.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/opinion/interesting-times-elliott-abrams.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share"
X Link 2026-01-07T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump is now pretending that US needs to take Greenland to counter Russia and China. Not only false but hard to imagine a bigger gift to either than to alienate our closest security and economic partners and give them no choice but to pivot away from the US in every way. Full text--which lays out the many ways Denmark has loyally stood by the United States for decades--attached here. Full text--which lays out the many ways Denmark has loyally stood by the United States for decades--attached here"
X Link 2026-01-10T13:37Z [----] followers, 26.3K engagements
"Regardless of how Iran turns out the regime's refusal to seriously pursue a nuclear deal with Trump will prove to have been a colossal error. As in Venezuela Trump likely would have allowed the repressive regime to remain in place if he achieved his main goals--in Iran's case an end to enrichment and access for U.S. oil companies. Trump could boast about ending Iran's nuclear program in a way Obama never did and Iran regime would have an economic lifeline. Instead regime's stubborn pursuit of a nuclear program primarily designed to ensure its survival may end up being the major factor in its"
X Link 2026-01-11T13:18Z [----] followers, 21.8K engagements
"Given time it would take for any investment in Venezuela to yield significant revenue Trump is essentially asking oil companies to bet billions that his successor would cover for them if something went wrong. Lack of enthusiasm hardly surprising. https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-presses-oil-executives-to-invest-in-venezuelabut-gets-lukewarm-reception-6e4efd78mod=hp_lead_pos1 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-presses-oil-executives-to-invest-in-venezuelabut-gets-lukewarm-reception-6e4efd78mod=hp_lead_pos1"
X Link 2026-01-11T13:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hard to disagree with @gideonrachman that US taking Greenland would mean effective if not formal end of NATO (to extent we are not already there). Which makes European reliance on Trump promises for a Ukraine security guarantee all the more inexplicable. https://www.ft.com/content/56907500-b6f6-4511-a423-368837a2182f https://www.ft.com/content/56907500-b6f6-4511-a423-368837a2182f"
X Link 2026-01-12T14:38Z [----] followers, 31.2K engagements
"Quite the message to other allies that only US ownership--not Article 5--can prevent Russia and China from taking over NATO territory. Tells you something about how Trump thinks about Article [--]. Most of this is nonsense. - Greenland is important to US missile defence including Golden Dome because of its location and its early-warning radar. A US radar of one sort of another has been there for nearly [--] years without the need for US sovereignty. - Greenland is also Most of this is nonsense. - Greenland is important to US missile defence including Golden Dome because of its location and its"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:51Z [----] followers, 77.6K engagements
"Denmark and Greenland would have been happy to give US whatever basing access we needed because they were confident the US unlike Russia or China would respect their laws citizens and resources. No one happier with Trump's erosion of that confidence than Russia and China"
X Link 2026-01-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 16K engagements
"Trump proposing to charge US taxpayers 25% fee on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imports until countries do what theyre not going to do in pursuit of unnecessary and counterproductive goal. We have subsidized Denmark and all of the Countries of the European Union and others for many years by not charging them Tariffs or any other forms of remuneration. Now after Centuries it is time for Denmark to give back World Peace is at stake China and Russia want We have subsidized Denmark and all of the Countries of the European Union and others for many years by not charging them Tariffs or"
X Link 2026-01-17T17:21Z [----] followers, 16K engagements
"I would have thought that a threat to take part of NATO territory the easy way or the hard way would merit at least a word from the Secretary General about territorial integrity. This is the very sort of approach that leads Trump to think he can pull this off. Spoke with @POTUS regarding the security situation in Greenland and the Arctic. We will continue working on this and I look forward to seeing him in Davos later this week. Spoke with @POTUS regarding the security situation in Greenland and the Arctic. We will continue working on this and I look forward to seeing him in Davos later this"
X Link 2026-01-18T22:33Z [----] followers, 99.1K engagements
"If "mainstream Europe" can't bring itself to rebuff this farcical project--as Trump mocks its leaders threatens its sovereignty and punishes it with tariffs--it will only encourage him to think he can continue to do and get whatever he wants including Greenland and beyond. Its going to be very interesting to see who does - or more significantly who doesnt join Trumps Board of Peace. Hes launching it on Thursday in Davos. France has already nixed it and with Greenland ongoing cant see mainstream Europe joining. Hell get Hungary some Middle Its going to be very interesting to see who does - or"
X Link 2026-01-20T09:07Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"The main arguments for the EU to accept a wildly imbalanced trade deal last summer was that it would lock in US support for European security and bring clarity and stability to transatlantic trade. That it clearly did neither (or worse) suggests it is time for different approach"
X Link 2026-01-20T11:21Z [----] followers, 45.5K engagements
"A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect order as we enter a world of no order at all. Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods open sea lanes a stable financial system collective security . this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture not a transition . recently great powers have begun using https://t.co/oVSorwTyUT Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public"
X Link 2026-01-20T17:44Z [----] followers, 37.7K engagements
"And I should have added it was a compelling and important speech that deserves to be read in full. Canadians should be proud Europeans grateful and Americans jealous. A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect order as we enter a world of no order at all. A candid and fair observation by Carney that the story of the rules-based order was partially false and that rules were asymmetrically enforced. And yet we may soon come to miss that imperfect"
X Link 2026-01-20T22:58Z [----] followers, 38K engagements
"Trump devoting so much of his speech to made up need to for US to take Greenland while Ukrainians fighting for their lives against Russian aggression is beyond insulting"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bar so low that ruling out use of force against a NATO ally is received as huge relief. But as insulting as remarks were toward Europeans and NATO they did leave space for Trump to call Danes names and move on to something else. Ok. So big news in Davos is that Trump rules out using force to seize Greenland. Guess the European tripwire deterrent worked after all. Ok. So big news in Davos is that Trump rules out using force to seize Greenland. Guess the European tripwire deterrent worked after all"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:44Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"Was surprised to see Zelensky come out guns blazing at Europeans who have been desperately trying to hold the line against Trump efforts to force him to end war with concessions to Russia. His frustration understandable but seemed off-target given moment and audience. Easy to resort to Euro-bashing but he's wrong. It was just three days ago that the European Parliament approved a 90bn support loan for Ukraine which seems to have eluded Zelensky's notice. EU defence spending was also up 11% in [----]. Shell production at around 2m/year. Etc. Easy to resort to Euro-bashing but he's wrong. It was"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:40Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements
"The Greenland saga may seem like just a big waste of time because we went back to square one but its much worse than that. It did enduring damage to trust in US. Trump said that if Denmark said no we will remember. I suspect our allies will also remember the past few weeks"
X Link 2026-01-22T20:33Z [----] followers, 58.7K engagements
"This piece by @SophiaBesch says it all and very well. After Davos - what lessons should Europeans take away from this episode of the Greenland crisis New from me this morning for @CarnegieEndow https://t.co/7C3tKCvVCL After Davos - what lessons should Europeans take away from this episode of the Greenland crisis New from me this morning for @CarnegieEndow https://t.co/7C3tKCvVCL"
X Link 2026-01-22T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"U.S. ambassador to EU complaining about EU failing to support predictability in trade relations a week after Trump suddenly imposes 10-25% additional tariffs on Europe over Greenland (and then just as quickly cancels them). As President Trump @POTUS said at Davos: The United States cares greatly about the people of Europe. and we believe deeply in the bonds we share." Yet too many in Brussels are missing the point. Some Members of the European Parliament now claim the U.S. is "undermining the As President Trump @POTUS said at Davos: The United States cares greatly about the people of Europe."
X Link 2026-01-23T07:22Z [----] followers, 83.4K engagements
"I think the point Jon is that he should not have been invited for a state visit let alone a second one. The strategy of seeking to curry favor with Trump through praise and flattery has utterly failed. The crass insensitivity of these remarks is only matched by their bewildering ignorance. Maybe when he came to the UK for his second state visit he should have gone to the National War Memorial Arboretum in staffordshire and seen the list of names of those who fell. And all this The crass insensitivity of these remarks is only matched by their bewildering ignorance. Maybe when he came to the UK"
X Link 2026-01-23T12:14Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements
"The horrific scenes on US streets will only accelerate this trend. Tourism was already collapsing. Boycott or fear of attending World Cup in play. Boycotts of US goods and divestment already underway. We are losing innocent lives billions of $ and best allies for no good reason. If you tried to design a plan to get Europeans to unite against the US diversity investments boycott U.S. goods reorient trade reduce tourism and refuse joint action against our adversaries you'd struggle to find a better one than US foreign policy over the past few weeks. If you tried to design a plan to get"
X Link 2026-01-25T09:55Z [----] followers, 69.4K engagements
"To suggest that Trump is net positive for European security as Rutte does here is just wrong. Even if Europe does eventually spend 5% of GDP on defense (by 2035.) if the reason for that is broken alliance with the US we are all much worse off. https://www.ft.com/content/fe1aad9e-3bd0-48e0-98fa-33fab2fb91dd https://www.ft.com/content/fe1aad9e-3bd0-48e0-98fa-33fab2fb91dd"
X Link 2026-01-26T09:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"RT @ForeignAffairs: Even though the risk of U.S. disengagementforeshadowed by the first Trump administrationhas been growing for years"
X Link 2026-01-27T10:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Indeed. As is fact that the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument welcomed in Washington as a potentially useful tool to deter economic bullying by China is now more likely to be used against the United States. Irony: Von der Leyen is the official who coined "de-risking" back in early [----] to describe curtailing trade relationships with China. Irony: Von der Leyen is the official who coined "de-risking" back in early [----] to describe curtailing trade relationships with China"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The security guarantees on offer do not "mirror" Article [--] which is backed by a treaty forward-deployed U.S. forces an integrated military command and a long history. For any territorial concessions Ukraine should be offered concrete material support. https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Which was entirely predictable. Trump admin and Israel will now demand access to determine what happened to Iran's HEU and LEU stockpiles residual enrichment capacity and uranium metal work and Iran will likely refuse leading to period of new threats or use of military force. After decades of robust IAEA access to Irans nuclear program were now entering a new and more dangerous phase. The task of understanding whats happening at Irans nuclear sites new and old will fall entirely on intelligence organizations. After decades of robust IAEA access to Irans nuclear program were now entering a new"
X Link 2025-07-02T11:05Z [----] followers, 21K engagements
"If ambassadors from other countries cut off all contacts with us over perceived insults we wouldn't have many contacts left. This only a week after Trump denigrated Polish soldiers' service in Afghanistan. New survey just this week showed a majority of Poles "no longer regard the US as a reliable ally" and that only 35% of Poles had "confidence in the US president to do the right thing regarding world affairs down from 75% a year earlier." Hard to undermine an alliance as solid as US-Poland but this ambassador seems determined to try. Effective immediately we will have no further dealings"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:15Z [----] followers, 171.1K engagements
".@gideonrachman is right: "Europeans should also take heart from the thought that this dark period in the US will not last forever. Liberal forces in the US are in retreat but they have not disappeared. The recklessness and hubris of the Trump administration make it entirely possible that the Maga movement will blow up quite quickly." Great by @gideonrachman: Trump wants a world safe for autocracy. ". there is a network of advanced liberal democracies around the world that will want to work with Europe and the UK including Japan South Korea Australia and Canada."💪 https://t.co/ZVVX82GYJO"
X Link 2025-02-24T12:32Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements
"Yes thanks in large part to @antoniocosta (and @vonderleyen) but mostly thanks to @vladimirputin and @donaldtrump. The current combination of Russian threat + US unreliability is also unprecedented and raises prospect of intra-EU co-ordination at levels not seen for decades. The level of intra-EU co-ordination we are seeing in response to Trump [---] is exceptional and unprecedented Thanks in large part to @antoniolscosta So much for the (tired) view that political fragmentation is always more likely than unity The level of intra-EU co-ordination we are seeing in response to Trump [---] is"
X Link 2025-02-26T11:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The European arguments against doing so are not compelling. It won't deter countries from holding euros in future any more than seizing assets indefinitely (which they're already doing) would. The euro won't be more at risk than the dollar (just because most of the frozen assets are in Europe) since US support for principle of seizing assets clear. The legal basis for seizure is sound so long as in context of countermeasures against Russia's clearly wrongful international act (and Russia would get assets back if ever peace deal after reparations). The risk of Pandora's box of WW2 reparations"
X Link 2025-02-28T23:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Case for Europe transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine was always strong. As Trump abandons Ukraine it has become far stronger. My new FT piece with Daleep Singh. https://on.ft.com/43pCYdq https://on.ft.com/43pCYdq"
X Link 2025-03-05T15:14Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements
"This is welcome and the conditions may be in place for Trump to get a better deal than Obama got (which may alone be reason enough for Trump to pursue it) and Trump could get a deal through Congress which Biden could not have done. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east Trump says he sent a letter to Iran's leader proposing nuclear deal. My report on @axios https://t.co/xXnKvICvu2 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-has-historic-opportunity-middle-east Trump says he sent a letter to Iran's leader proposing nuclear deal. My"
X Link 2025-03-07T13:20Z [----] followers, 26.4K engagements
"Of course negotiated settlements require painful compromise but that is different from blaming Ukraine for the war undermining its leader cutting off defense and intel support refusing security guarantees and doing all that publicly and in advance of the negotiation. We need to stop obsessing about Trump every five seconds (which too many commentators do) and start looking at the big picture: any negotiated agreement will require Ukraine to cede some territory. Distasteful yes. But the facts on the ground dont care about your feelings. We need to stop obsessing about Trump every five seconds"
X Link 2025-03-09T16:12Z [----] followers, 75.2K engagements
"Poland is staunch ally highly pro-American spends 4%+ GDP on defense major purchaser of US defense and energy equipment rising economic player on front lines with adversary. Really hard to see the logic of diplomacy by insult"
X Link 2025-03-09T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Excellent by @gideonrachman. Between costly trade wars careless deregulation a reckless foreign policy and the purging of experts from the government under unqualified sycophants a high profile disaster is sadly all too likely in coming years. When it happens Trump will blame others (Biden foreigners his own appointees) and then do everything in his power to avoid the political consequences.The recent precedents of authoritarians losing power in Poland and Brazil (and Guatemala) and opposition signs of life in Hungary and Turkey are indeed signs all is not lost. But as in those cases"
X Link 2025-03-17T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Also does not seem to know that majorities in all those regions voted for independence from Russia in [----] that Russia tried to conquer the whole country in [----] and that what is really at stake here is the principle of not taking even contested territory by force. The depth of ignorance is something. Not only Steve Witkoff cannot name the five Ukrainian regions hes ready to sign away to Russia he also thinks they had been handed over to Ukraine by Khrushchev. (Crimea is the only one of the five that was transferred in [----] to Ukraine https://t.co/3HKOPPfhRS The depth of ignorance is"
X Link 2025-03-23T11:33Z [----] followers, 33.6K engagements
"Important point. Issue with Houthis never whether they are Iran-backed terrorist group that threatens US interests or whether freedom of navigation in Red Sea important. Question is whether more aggressive military action actually will open up Red Sea and whether costs and risks of doing so are worth it. Global shipping and insurance companies will want to see enduring calm before resuming operations and Houthis (who absorbed [--] years of Saudi bombing and relish role as leaders of "Axis of Resistance" to US and Israel) unlikely to back down so long as Gaza war ongoing. Meanwhile costs of"
X Link 2025-03-24T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Remarkable how little attention this is getting. Meanwhile Trump and Vance focused like a laser on Greenland. All entry points into Gaza are closed. At the border food is rotting. Medicine is expiring. Vital medical equipment is stuck. If the basic principles of humanitarian law still count the international community must act to uphold them. https://t.co/mQkyexZYvi All entry points into Gaza are closed. At the border food is rotting. Medicine is expiring. Vital medical equipment is stuck. If the basic principles of humanitarian law still count the international community must act to uphold"
X Link 2025-03-28T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agree with this whole thread. Trump already failing badly and policy course unsustainable. *Ukraine pivot to Russia failing to bring peace looks weak and most Americans still anti-Putin. *Tariff policy chaotic and unpopular even before higher prices kick in. *Stock markets crashing and new numbers on consumer confidence and inflation expectations alarming. *National security team hurting Trump from Witkoff naivte on Putin and Hamas to Signalgate incompetence and preposterous spin that's not working. *Measles outbreaks in TX OH KS. With cutoff of USAID global efforts on Ebola Malaria M-pox"
X Link 2025-03-29T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And 100% of Americans are consumers. Now facing higher prices for no good reason. 61% of American adults own stocks or mutual funds. Exposure to the stock market is one of the most common financial characteristics in the electorate more common than having a mortgage or receiving Social Security. And the tariffs economic damage isnt limited to stock prices. 61% of American adults own stocks or mutual funds. Exposure to the stock market is one of the most common financial characteristics in the electorate more common than having a mortgage or receiving Social Security. And the tariffs economic"
X Link 2025-04-05T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"First worked with Bridget [--] years ago. She is one of most skilled and dedicated foreign service officers of her generation who did heroic work in Ukraine under the most difficult circumstances. Wish her all the best for next steps. Grateful to Amb. Bridget Brink for three remarkable years leading our embassy in Ukraine. Her courage and commitment to Ukraines freedom show our foreign and civil service at their best as does our incredible team at Embassy Kyiv. My enduring gratitude to her and them. https://t.co/W1QcFgmtb4 Grateful to Amb. Bridget Brink for three remarkable years leading our"
X Link 2025-04-11T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I think its more a question of Witkoffs loose command of facts and language but if he is really prepared to let Iran have unlimited enrichment as long as its not weaponized Trump will have to defend an Iran deal that is worse than Obamas. Also Witkoff's comments to WSJ help clarify the apparent discrepancy between his (and Trump's) suggestion of a verification scheme and stated US policy including the reported contents of Trump's letter. It's the US negotiation strategy. Also Witkoff's comments to WSJ help clarify the apparent discrepancy between his (and Trump's) suggestion of a verification"
X Link 2025-04-12T09:47Z [----] followers, 107.7K engagements
"Only four days ago Witkoff said dismantlement was only our position today and that redline was weaponization. Yesterday he said Iran could enrich to 3.67%. Now Iran must stop and eliminate its enrichment. This is as incoherent as tariff policy with likely similar results. The WH's position has shifted entirely over the course of [--] hours and after the first negotiation with Iran. Some will claim this is a win for the "Iran hawks." In truth it's another win for Iran; it just shows how unserious and unprepared this team is. https://t.co/ANKcpGnyxQ The WH's position has shifted entirely over the"
X Link 2025-04-15T18:50Z [----] followers, 43.3K engagements
"We dont know what may have been conveyed to Moscow in private but all indications are that the message is now you have days to make this work and if you dont well blame Ukraine and walk away. Pressure on Ukraine has been consistent; on Moscow nonexistent. Clearly this is absurd but to call it quits without even trying to put pressure on Russia or use leverage in any way against Moscow is quite something. Clearly this is absurd but to call it quits without even trying to put pressure on Russia or use leverage in any way against Moscow is quite something"
X Link 2025-04-18T15:54Z [----] followers, 20K engagements
"The entire State Dept budget is around 0.6% of federal spending. Yet in name of savings this plan would gut US influence replace experts with loyalists abandon entire continent of Africa and end work on climate refugees and human rights. Trump looking to eliminate Africa operations at State Dept - scoop by @ewong https://t.co/y2a3UQaaN5 via @NYTimes Trump looking to eliminate Africa operations at State Dept - scoop by @ewong https://t.co/y2a3UQaaN5 via @NYTimes"
X Link 2025-04-20T09:54Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements
"A month ago the White House declared the Houthi campaign to be a "massive success" and dismissed Signalgate as effort to distract. Now turns out it's costing $250m/week and undermining readiness while Red Sea still closed and Houthis firing missiles. With DOD in disarray. Sixth MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down by Houthis since March 3rd; each drone costs about $30 million reports @Liz_Friden The U.S.MQ-9Reaper drone was shot down by the Houthis in Yemen earlier today sources tell Fox News. This is the sixth MQ-9Reaper drone shot down by the Sixth MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down by Houthis since March"
X Link 2025-04-21T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Text of @araghchi speech looks crafted to get Trump attention. No new JCPOA (previous Iran demand was return to deal) commitment to no nuclear weapon (Trump's redline) robust verification and "trillion-$ opportunity" for US firms (unlike JCPOA.) Trying to steer Trump to yes. When I agreed to present a keynote address before @carnegienpp Iran and the U.S. had not yet set dates for the next round of talks which begin at the expert level on Wednesday and at the principals' level on Saturday. As I underscore in my prepared remarks Iran has no https://t.co/OW2KCswseN When I agreed to present a"
X Link 2025-04-22T14:08Z [----] followers, 23.2K engagements
"Rubio didn't so much clarify as contradict Witkoff who spoke about Iran enriching to 3.67% not importing to that level. But if new standard is actually "no domestic enrichment" he'll need to explain how to achieve it without military force since Iran very unlikely to agree. 1/4 So @marcorubio finally sets out background behind the @SteveWitkoff enrichment U-turn and delivers the news almost certainly already signalled to Iranians in Rome that Washingtons big new idea is supplying them with fuel from outside Iram for a civilian nuke program. As-1- So @marcorubio finally sets out background"
X Link 2025-04-24T11:18Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements
"To be clear if Trump team can get Iran to accept deal that bans domestic enrichment has no sunsets and covers ballistic missiles and regional behavior we should all applaud. But more likely they will have to compromise like Obama did or roll the dice with use of force"
X Link 2025-04-24T11:18Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements
"Witkoff has little experience with the issues he's negotiating but has the confidence to negotiate for hours with Putin and two senior aides apparently without any US staff present. Setting aside the fawning the risk of misunderstanding/miscalculation/getting played is obvious. Yet again Witkoff meets with Putin with no other senior US officials. While Putin has two of his closest aides. This is the 4th Witkoff-Putin meeting this year and Witkoff doesn't appear to have taken a senior diplomat/intel/expert with him to any of them. Yet again Witkoff meets with Putin with no other senior US"
X Link 2025-04-25T17:23Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements
"With no outside security force for Gaza on the horizon and West Bank violence rising we should be looking to increase training of Palestinians willing to provide security and fight terrorism not cutting it. Maybe Rubio has another plan in mind but if not this makes no sense. Scoop: Secretary of State Rubio is considering eliminating the U.S. security coordinator role for the West Bank and Gaza Strip as part of a broader staffing overhaul according to five U.S. Palestinian Arab and Israeli sources. My story on @axios https://t.co/BlIif3SSNI Scoop: Secretary of State Rubio is considering"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:58Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements
"This came out much better than the initial US attempt at extortion (the protection racket without the protection.) It still doesn't provide protection but nor does it require Ukraine to hand over natural resources for past US assistance. If it paves way for future US diplomatic and military support net positive for Ukraine. Ukraine's government has now published the minerals deal agreed with the US yesterday. Here are the first [--] pages. Our @FT story on the deal here: https://t.co/AQXv2niX9w https://t.co/KtHQozaovl Ukraine's government has now published the minerals deal agreed with the US"
X Link 2025-05-01T13:05Z [----] followers, 20K engagements
"I wouldn't say Trump statement "settles an internal debate within the administration" because -contentious issue isn't goal of negotiations but redline; -a moment later Trump said he'd be "open to hearing" about civil nuclear energy option; -he said he "didn't say anything contradictory" to Rubio who has expressed openness to that option; -Trump is so far removed from details of the issue he said this idea was "pretty new in the dialogue"; -he also repeated "the only thing is they can't have a nuclear weapon." This is basically restatement of Witkoff Wall Street Journal interview a month"
X Link 2025-05-05T11:23Z [----] followers, 38.4K engagements
"Trump wants a "better" Iran nuclear deal than Obama but also doesn't want to go to war. My thoughts for @nytopinion on a possibly way forward: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/opinion/international-world/how-trump-can-close-a-nuclear-deal-with-iran.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/opinion/international-world/how-trump-can-close-a-nuclear-deal-with-iran.html"
X Link 2025-05-10T11:25Z [----] followers, 36.2K engagements
"Very discouraging interview with Witkoff who still seems to think that key to peace is just getting sides in a room and threatening to walk if they don't agree. "They don't like each other.we have to change that." No hint of pressure on Russia. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/12/how-trump-can-reset-his-failed-ukraine-policy/ "Witkoff noted that President Trump has "issued an ultimatum" to the two parties that they need to make progress on a lasting peace otherwise the U.S. is walking away." Not exactly a threat for Putin."
X Link 2025-05-13T10:04Z [----] followers, 29.8K engagements
"For all the talk of Trump breaking with Netanyahu (on Houthis Iran Qatar hostage talks etc.) he has yet to do anything meaningful to get Israel to lift ongoing blockade of Gaza. Senators right to call on him to do so urgently. It's been over two months since the Israeli government has allowed food and medicine into Gaza. That's why I've introduced a resolution with my colleagues urging the Trump Administration to use every tool at their disposal to stop the blockade and allow aid to enter Gaza. https://t.co/5rpoj6iHu9 It's been over two months since the Israeli government has allowed food and"
X Link 2025-05-15T17:36Z [----] followers, 43.2K engagements
"Much to hate about Trump foreign policy but Democrats could learn from the willingness to challenge established orthodoxies and ignore feared political costs. My thoughts on this in @FT. https://www.ft.com/content/38c70d15-62f4-49b4-840d-154ba415f97a https://www.ft.com/content/38c70d15-62f4-49b4-840d-154ba415f97a"
X Link 2025-05-16T17:26Z [----] followers, 125.9K engagements
"Terrific review of new @EdwardGLuce book by Teddy Bunzel (who used to work for Brzezinski). Zbig (who taught and mentored me years ago) was brilliant original fearless and impossible to pigeon-hole. Kissinger right that world "emptier place" without him. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/16/zbigniew-brzezinski-zbig-review-edward-luce/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/16/zbigniew-brzezinski-zbig-review-edward-luce/"
X Link 2025-05-17T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After weeks of Trump and team showing signs frustration with Putin and hinting at possible harder line increasingly clear that response to Putin snubs will be to just throw in the towel--as Moscow hoped. Trump (again) caught bluffing and Putin freer hand for maximalist goals. Two people briefedon the call with the European leaders and Zelensky said Trump was clear he'd pull the US back from engaging with the war and leave Ukraine and Russia to directly negotiate. He also made no promise of future US sanctions against Russia. https://t.co/c6dpCJHxKI Two people briefedon the call with the"
X Link 2025-05-19T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Europeans had been claiming (and hoping and praying) that Trump was finally starting to come around but now may have to accept he never will"
X Link 2025-05-19T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will mean less expertise coordination and vigilance and even more chaotic foreign policy. This is a plan to implement whims/desires from top not to assess risks present options and coordinate govt. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/23/politics/national-security-council-administrative-leave-trump https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/23/politics/national-security-council-administrative-leave-trump"
X Link 2025-05-23T22:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Plan seems to be to have one staffer take responsibility for entire regions and issues--an impossible task. On other hand if president is just going to decide and announce things like 50% Europe tariffs without study or coordination then it really doesn't matter. Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will mean less expertise coordination and vigilance and even more chaotic foreign policy. This is a plan to implement whims/desires from top not to assess risks present options and coordinate govt. https://t.co/u6uEEuoYuf Fair debate to be had about best size of NSC but this will"
X Link 2025-05-24T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not only virtually entire world but majority of Israelis support deal to end war and free hostages yet Netanyahu govt continues to pursue costly illusion of "total victory." Reports of Trump "frustration" but no sign of meaningful opposition to blockade invasion and occupation. Netanyahu had unprecedented international legitimacy to fight back against Hamas after the Oct. [--] terror attacks. But a gradual decline in support as the war dragged on has now turned into a diplomatic tsunami. My story on @axios https://t.co/fUjWbv78RR Netanyahu had unprecedented international legitimacy to fight back"
X Link 2025-05-25T18:33Z [----] followers, 15K engagements
"State Dept now officially disseminating calls for civilizational allies in Europe based on common culture faith familial ties and cultural heritage. Defends AfD Marine Le Pen and Christian nations like Hungary and questions very basis of EU. https://open.substack.com/pub/statedept/p/the-need-for-civilizational-allies-in-europer=amf99&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/statedept/p/the-need-for-civilizational-allies-in-europer=amf99&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-05-27T20:47Z [----] followers, 469.5K engagements
"Insightful @gideonrachman column (h/t @JyShapiro) gets to problem at heart of Trump foreign policy--nobody believes his wild threats. And even where he could be serious (Iran) he invites miscalculation by making them so often. https://www.ft.com/content/714c1096-eb17-40b0-a570-8a051406bc75 https://www.ft.com/content/714c1096-eb17-40b0-a570-8a051406bc75"
X Link 2025-06-02T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We should focus our outrage on the many genuinely outrageous aspects of Trump's foreign policy and if he happens to get a nuclear deal that is in our interest we should support it. Schumer was wrong to try and kill Obamas Iran deal. Hed be wrong to try and kill Trumps. Schumer was wrong to try and kill Obamas Iran deal. Hed be wrong to try and kill Trumps"
X Link 2025-06-03T15:16Z [----] followers, 53.6K engagements
"The State Department also recently dismissed some of our most senior diplomats in the region (we currently have no ambassadors in Jordan Iraq Saudi Arabia etc.) is deliberately downsizing and hemorrhaging personnel and replaced its top Middle East hand with a political appointee with no diplomatic experience. We have needlessly shed the very people we would need to save American lives should a mass evacuation of Americans become necessary. NEW: The State Department established a new Middle East task force on Thursday designed to be instrumental in the event of a potential mass evacuation of"
X Link 2025-06-13T00:17Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"Trump now portraying Iran strikes as him not chickening out but opposite seems to be the case. He desperately wanted a deal with Iran and publicly and privately told Israel not to strike. A confident Netanyahu called his bluff told him Israel needed to act and Trump felt no choice but to go along. He now has to act as if this was his call but in so doing finds himself having to defend Israel in a war he did not want but could not prevent. Trump tells #Iran that next phase of Israeli attacks will be even more brutal if Tehran does not do a nuclear deal with the US. https://t.co/e6asRz2xLd"
X Link 2025-06-13T11:13Z [----] followers, 251.2K engagements
"The two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Trump could not prevent it so he gave it a green light. Had it gone badly he would have said the US had nothing to do with it (like Rubio did the night of the attack.) Because it seemed to go well he took credit. There are different working hypotheses now about Trump and Israel's attack on Iran. One is that he was greenlighting it the other is that he could not prevent it. There are different working hypotheses now about Trump and Israel's attack on Iran. One is that he was greenlighting it the other is that he could not prevent it"
X Link 2025-06-15T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trumps intel assessment now seems a function of his policy rather than the other way around. (I dont care what my own DNI said). Reminiscent of Downing Street Memo the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. @BrewerEricM Is it possible he doesnt really care about the intel of how close they were or whether the decision had not been made; he was reluctant to go to war relented when he felt he could not hold Israel off anymore then saw it go seemingly well now trying to position himself @BrewerEricM Is it possible he doesnt really care about the intel of how close they were"
X Link 2025-06-18T13:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks to @gideonrachman for having me on the Rachman Review. We discussed Israels war aims Irans capacity for retaliation and the prospects that the U.S. will again be drawn into war in the Middle East. https://www.ft.com/content/573ca58a-573c-4fb5-97d7-ee6e83bcf263 https://www.ft.com/content/573ca58a-573c-4fb5-97d7-ee6e83bcf263"
X Link 2025-06-19T04:50Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements
"This missing stockpile of HEU would not even exist had Trump not withdrawn from JCPOA which banned it til [----]. Yet by June [----] Irans stockpile of 60% HEU (400kg) was bigger than the amount of allowable 3.67% LEU (300kg) under the deal. via @NYTimes https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/us/politics/iran-nuclear-program-uranium.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/us/politics/iran-nuclear-program-uranium.htmlsmid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare"
X Link 2025-06-27T00:54Z [----] followers, 63.7K engagements
"Those wondering whether Rutte's sycophancy and the headlines created at the NATO summit would have a lasting impact on Trump's approach to European security have their answer. BREAKING: White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive including PAC3 Patriots 155mm artillery rounds GMLRS Stinger AIM-7 and Hellfire missiles. @AnnaKelly47 tells me: This decision was made to put Americas interests first following a BREAKING: White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive including PAC3 Patriots 155mm artillery rounds GMLRS Stinger"
X Link 2025-07-02T10:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is an admission that the US-Israeli premise for months--that intensified military action and growing civilian suffering will help free the hostages--has been tragically misguided. There is no defensible rationale for a policy that is causing so much human suffering and failing to achieve even its own stated goals. We have decided to bring our team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas which clearly shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. While the mediators have made a great effort Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good We"
X Link 2025-07-24T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Even if this leads to meaningful change--still obviously TBD--the Israeli government's decision in March to break the ceasefire blockade Gaza and escalate militarily will prove to have been catastrophic. It made no real difference against Hamas led to immeasurable additional suffering in Gaza failed to free any hostages further divided Israeli society and took a huge and undoubtedly lasting toll on Israel's reputation. 🚨🚨🚨The IDF is going to implement humanitarian pauses in the fighting in several population centers in Gaza starting Sunday morning and until Sunday evening to allow the UN"
X Link 2025-07-26T21:56Z [----] followers, 161.1K engagements
"Many Israelis especially in current government have dismissed warnings about "losing" US moderates and Dems for years but hard to avoid wake-up call of moderate Senator advocating "end to any US support whatsover" unless Israeli policy changes. NEW from @SenAngusKing: I cannot defend the indefensibleI am through supporting the actions of the current Israeli government and will advocateand votefor an end to any United States support whatsoever until there is a demonstrable change in the direction of Israeli policy https://t.co/i26xIVDWSQ NEW from @SenAngusKing: I cannot defend the"
X Link 2025-07-28T20:15Z [----] followers, 64.9K engagements
"In past [--] hrs Trump insults and punishes India; cancels Taiwan president transit; calls into question Australia nuclear sub deal and hits EU with 15% unilateral tariffs. It takes years to build allies' trust and confidence but little time to destroy it (which China must love.) This threat to India just a day after Trump extends a trade truce with China and thanks them for selling us rare earth magnets. The Trump doctrine is to be tougher on allies and partners than on adversaries. https://t.co/ly9tdaCVpG This threat to India just a day after Trump extends a trade truce with China and thanks"
X Link 2025-07-30T20:07Z [----] followers, 66.6K engagements
"Days after Israeli settler whose sanctions by Biden were lifted by Trump kills a Palestinian activist the State Dept sanctionsthe PA. Trump and others seem more exercised by calls to recognize Palestinian state than by West Bank violence and Gaza. https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/07/sanctioning-officials-of-the-palestinian-authority-and-members-of-the-palestine-liberation-organization/ https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/07/sanctioning-officials-of-the-palestinian-authority-and-members-of-the-palestine-liberation-organization/"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:15Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements
"The likely costs of an Israeli full occupation or annexation of Gaza so vastly exceed the benefits that the only possible explanation is Netanyahus desire to preserve his coalition. That would also explain why government pursues it even as so many former IDF and Mossad leaders and majority of Israeli public favor end of war and hostage deal. Incremental further damage to already decimated Hamas not worth thousands more starving and dead Palestinian civilians; enduring pain or death of Israeli hostages; risk of insurgency; additional IDF casualties; growing reservist burdens and suicides;"
X Link 2025-08-05T13:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump is managing to halt Indias divorce from Russia and [--] years of deepening ties with US. Modi is also going to China next month for first time in [--] years after period of deep freeze in relationship w Beijing. Big price to pay for tariffs and trash talk. Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend President Putin. I thanked him for sharing the latest developments on Ukraine. We also reviewed the progress in our bilateral agenda and reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend"
X Link 2025-08-09T05:29Z [----] followers, 34.6K engagements
"I spoke to @yarotrof for this excellent deep-dive on Russian oil trade. To have meaningful impact on efforts to end Ukraine war by cutting Russian oil revenues Trump will have to do more than India tariffs. Tools are availableand oil market will tolerateif Trump willing to use. How much damage can Trump inflict on the Russian oil trade and could it compel Putin to end the war in Ukraine Out deep dive with @tggrove https://t.co/z0NlVYwsyU How much damage can Trump inflict on the Russian oil trade and could it compel Putin to end the war in Ukraine Out deep dive with @tggrove"
X Link 2025-08-09T05:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Recall that in his interview with Tucker Carlson Witkoff couldnt name the five regions of Ukraine Russia had taken didnt know that all of them voted for independence from Russia in [----] and thought Khrushchev had given them all to Ukraine. Details dont seem to be his forte. "He misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of a "peaceful withdrawal" by the Russians from these regions." https://t.co/Vex1IqlsP3 "He misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of"
X Link 2025-08-10T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sensible thoughts on Finland model for Ukraine by @gideonrachman (and @alexstubb). Another model is West Germany after [----]. It accepted but did not recognize de facto loss of eastern territory (and agreed not to try to re-take it by force) in exchange for recognition sovereignty right to build up defense forces security guarantees and the right to integrate into Western institutions. Then became prosperous stable democracy that eventually got eastern lands back admittedly decades later. Not a perfect model or outcome but achievable with US and European supportand better than indefinite war"
X Link 2025-08-11T05:54Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements
"Superb piece on why Trump cozying up to Pakistan at expense of US relations with India. Modis (accurate) public denial that Trump helped defuse recent conflict (in contrast to Pakistan nominating him for Nobel Prize) a big factor. Decisions driven not by interests but by pique. How Pakistan wooed Trump and rattled India https://t.co/y1FEv4WhWT How Pakistan wooed Trump and rattled India https://t.co/y1FEv4WhWT"
X Link 2025-08-11T17:05Z [----] followers, 28.6K engagements
"My new piece in @ForeignPolicy written after spending the week in Israel and the West Bank. Trump should but likely wont stop Israel from implementing its catastrophic plan to occupy all of Gaza. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/14/trump-save-israel-netanyahu-gaza/tpcc=recirc_latest062921 https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/14/trump-save-israel-netanyahu-gaza/tpcc=recirc_latest062921"
X Link 2025-08-14T13:23Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements
"Tanvi right that this is win-win for Russia and thus hardly effective leverage. But Bessent knows he has a boss who is unwilling to confront Putin and wants a summit and trade deal with China so all he can propose is to hit India instead. + beyond not caring Putin would benefit if Trump hits India instead and that weakens India-US ties strengthens calls in India to do more with Russia and makes India more willing to make up with China. + beyond not caring Putin would benefit if Trump hits India instead and that weakens India-US ties strengthens calls in India to do more with Russia and makes"
X Link 2025-08-15T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Wouldnt hold my breath for the constructive details of agreement to be revealed. Trump couldnt agree to what Putin demanded but also couldnt admit summit was a failure so agreed to pretend progress was made. And now all he has to offer is advice that Ukraine make a deal. Since a deal to end the war was never going to have been finalized today by definition the lack of a deal doesnt make this meeting a failure. Whether it was a success is impossible to say until we know the details. And the leaders revealed none today-clearly by mutual agreement Since a deal to end the war was never going to"
X Link 2025-08-16T02:16Z [----] followers, 62.1K engagements
"It would have been better to have the European leaders join Trump's meeting with Putin and give Zelensky the red carpet summit than the other way around"
X Link 2025-08-17T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump's main ask of the Europeans tomorrow should be to transfer the more than $200 bn in frozen Russian assets they hold to Ukraine. It would cost the US nothing it could be used to buy US arms and it would increase the leverage needed to end the war on terms they can accept"
X Link 2025-08-17T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Win-win for Russia it is. Navarro doubling down on additional sanctions on India to "hit it where it hurts" while administration declines to sanction either China or Russia itself. @tanvi_madan https://www.ft.com/content/286160e0-c0e6-4899-ad5c-3aa6dce85e82 Tanvi right that this is win-win for Russia and thus hardly effective leverage. But Bessent knows he has a boss who is unwilling to confront Putin and wants a summit and trade deal with China so all he can propose is to hit India instead. https://www.ft.com/content/286160e0-c0e6-4899-ad5c-3aa6dce85e82 Tanvi right that this is win-win for"
X Link 2025-08-18T06:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The "-like" part of "NATO-like security guarantees" doing a lot of work here. The most relevant characteristics of Article [--] are that it: -says an armed attack on one shall be considered an attack against all; -is codified in a Senate-approved treaty; -is not subject to third-party veto; and -has been interpreted to mean US readiness to use force to uphold. 1/3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/17/trump-zelensky-meeting-europe/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/17/trump-zelensky-meeting-europe/"
X Link 2025-08-18T13:20Z [----] followers, 57.8K engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing