# ![@NGurushina Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1189953260637044737.png) @NGurushina Natalia Gurushina

Natalia Gurushina posts on X about inflation, brazil, debt, colombia the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/interactions)
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- [--] Week [------] -55%
- [--] Month [-------] +31%
- [--] Months [---------] +17%
- [--] Year [---------] +347%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] -8.80%
- [--] Month [--] +88%
- [--] Months [---] +144%
- [--] Year [---] +19%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +0.96%
- [--] Month [------] +7.70%
- [--] Months [------] +61%
- [--] Year [------] +95%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1189953260637044737/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  66% [countries](/list/countries)  44% [currencies](/list/currencies)  19% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  1% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation) #2359, [brazil](/topic/brazil) 16%, [debt](/topic/debt) 10%, [colombia](/topic/colombia) 9%, [south africa](/topic/south-africa) 9%, [target](/topic/target) 9%, [hungary](/topic/hungary) 7%, [china](/topic/china) 6%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6%, [market](/topic/market) 6%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@rrccmmrr](/creator/undefined) [@michaelaarouet](/creator/undefined) [@secscottbessent](/creator/undefined) [@feelug](/creator/undefined) [@liberaldeantoo2](/creator/undefined) [@angusshillingto](/creator/undefined) [@inforeadknow](/creator/undefined) [@internetleo](/creator/undefined) [@matiasabal](/creator/undefined) [@naubernues](/creator/undefined) [@potsdamcentral](/creator/undefined) [@mweigt](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"If China wants to significantly boost consumption's share in the economy it should address such confidence killers as low pensions the weak social safety net and unfinished houses. On the upside boosting consumption would be consistent with stronger CNY (an anchor for EMFX) Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to consume more dropped to the lowest level since [----] in Q3 according to the PBoCs survey. Not good. Explains the latest policy pivot. And an argument for the stronger CNY. https://t.co/etzoEX3Ox4 Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1983183067771744437)  2025-10-28T14:44Z 11.6K followers, 45.4K engagements


"Trkiye - the central banks smaller than expected hawkish rate cut (-100bps) was completely justified by todays upside inflation surprise. Looks like Proceed with Caution will be the boards motto for the foreseeable future (despite faster fiscal adjustment)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018683705284239586)  2026-02-03T13:51Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Mexicos central bank decided not to rock the boat and keep the policy rate on hold - for the right reasons The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change at the helm) and the real ex-ante policy rate is well in the neutral band. https://t.co/XXWEORpeSI The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019490921625317693)  2026-02-05T19:18Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"EM debt price action today - not bad given the circumstances (tight spreads are still concerning though). the chart - courtesy J.P. Morgan @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019568471328333988)  2026-02-06T00:26Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"EM median inflation is back to the pre-COVID levels and lower inflation is good for EM local bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021926834670055769)  2026-02-12T12:38Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to consume more dropped to the lowest level since [----] in Q3 according to the PBoCs survey. Not good. Explains the latest policy pivot. And an argument for the stronger CNY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1982900507007160750)  2025-10-27T20:01Z 11.6K followers, 22.3K engagements


"The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change at the helm) and the real ex-ante policy rate is well in the neutral band"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019137967630303394)  2026-02-04T19:56Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"A reminder that rating agencies examine EMs under a microscope and that no policy transgression goes unpunished - Moodys cut Indonesias outlook to negative due to reduced predictability in policymaking which can erode Indonesias long established policy credibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019482832956190758)  2026-02-05T18:46Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"FX volatility Lower for longer DB argues that if big economic triggers are missing like a materially lower US growth the longer FX volatility stays low the more likely it is to stay that way. EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123 https://t.co/PcNdxmvyZU EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123 https://t.co/PcNdxmvyZU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020899114012041552)  2026-02-09T16:34Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils governor Galipolo is in the calibration mode - a rational choice given that CPI expectations are sticky (esp. 2027) the labor market is tight and there are election-related fiscal risks. Local bonds seem happy with this setup topping the year-to-date EM league table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2020904204697477298)  2026-02-09T16:54Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil - a tiny upside surprise notwithstanding todays inflation data dump is consistent with a 50bps rate cut in March especially if/as easing expectations push the real ex-ante policy rate deeper into restrictive zone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021210760144126408)  2026-02-10T13:12Z 11.6K followers, 10.1K engagements


"Argentina The end of disinflation cries after the upside CPI surprise are too gloomy. We liked sequential moderation in core CPI. More stable ARS should also help. But last-mile disinflation will be slow and risks are still to the upside. A new CPI basket is also a mystery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021359828048969871)  2026-02-10T23:05Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"USD was not too affected by the hawkish U.S. labor report - Does this reinforce the bearish USD trade which creates a beneficial global backdrop for EM and especially EM local debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021660354187792702)  2026-02-11T18:59Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Mexico local bonds and Pres Trumps attempts to use the USMCA as a distraction from his own political woes - Mexico local bonds YTD outperformance (3rd best in JPMs GBI-EM Index) warrants caution esp. given that Mexico rates positioning looks stretched"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021666269087641886)  2026-02-11T19:22Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina $$$ purchases Make hay while the sun shines. The BCRA is absolutely right to use the relatively benign conditions to step up $$$ purchases for international reserves. Note that ARS 1m and 3m NDFs are not panicking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021685375295496527)  2026-02-11T20:38Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Can Trkiyes local bonds get their mojo back - Yields are high but the central banks CPI forecasts are revised higher (16% - 18% mid-point for 2026). The inflation report points to a shallow easing cycle limiting potential gains for local rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021963038937735355)  2026-02-12T15:02Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Colombias local bonds and domestic policies Cause and effect: = A nice price reaction (across the entire yield curve) to headlines about suspending the decree on the 23% minimum wage hike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2022314317878563041)  2026-02-13T14:18Z 11.6K followers, 15.6K engagements


"Brazil seems to be following in Chinas footsteps diversifying away (pretty actively) from U.S. Treasuries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2003455022227685769)  2025-12-23T13:17Z 11.5K followers, 115.1K engagements


"Mexico has a solid case for a rate pause in Feb bi-weekly CPI edged up (year-on-year) the impact of the latest tariffs is not yet certain the policy rate is in the neutral band the differential with the Fed is tight and the market priced out some rate cuts for the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014376967777255725)  2026-01-22T16:37Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Uruguay local bonds A grab your money and run situation The extra-dovish shift in the policy direction (+ a promise to buy more $$$) is a good reason to take profits in Uruguays local bonds and lock in some of the highest year-to-date total return ($ unhedged) in GBI-EM:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016167001467564282)  2026-01-27T15:10Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Hungarys rate pause - A huge sigh of relief. The unanimous decision reflected orthodox reasoning (elevated service CPI worrisome household expectations) brightening the outlook for local duration and making HUF one of the happiest kids on the EMFX block today. A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016184563785936941)  2026-01-27T16:20Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils monetary policy message - The implied probability of a 50bps rate cut in March is now 85% (Jans implied tiny rate cut was effectively absorbed into March). We the market continue to see close to -275bps in total for 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016917407936258156)  2026-01-29T16:52Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombian local rates are still adjusting after the central banks gutsy 100bps rate hike on Friday (the implied terminal rate now exceeds 13%) but the peso (COP) is in a happy place this morning topping the EMFX league table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018346532718731633)  2026-02-02T15:31Z 11.5K followers, 25.8K engagements


"Brazil the central banks minutes will be a must read tomorrow. All inflation expectations are below 4% but expectations for [----] are stock well above the target. If tomorrows minutes look hawkish the market might scale down its easing expectations for March back to -25bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018349560863547872)  2026-02-02T15:43Z 11.5K followers, 47.2K engagements


"In case you are still wondering why Colombias central bank felt compelled to frontload rate hikes - check what happened to Colombias inflation expectations in January (after the min wage hike)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018433002636800277)  2026-02-02T21:15Z 11.5K followers, 39.1K engagements


"Brazils central bank minutes - Poker face The board is definitely in the mood to cut but it keeps an option to start slowly (-25bps) if inflation expectations remain sticky (among other things) or proceed at a faster pace (-50bps) if we see more progress on this front. Brazil the central banks minutes will be a must read tomorrow. All inflation expectations are below 4% but expectations for [----] are stock well above the target. If tomorrows minutes look hawkish the market might scale down its easing expectations for March back to -25bps https://t.co/EWWH4bqXbX Brazil the central banks minutes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018678164596093093)  2026-02-03T13:29Z 11.5K followers, 37.9K engagements


"@rrccmmrr not always; plus a prospect of lower yields can generate inflows into local bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021222430316908800)  2026-02-10T13:59Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements


"EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019143217669869950)  2026-02-04T20:17Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Gross fixed capital formation in DM - The widening gap between the U.S. and Germany seems logical but Germanys post-pandemic gap with Italy is fascinating. Does the RRF usage explain part of it (Italys requested loans/grants are the highest per capita) @MichaelAArouet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021975324502761826)  2026-02-12T15:50Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"South Africa jitters Politics or positioning Political noise is back following DA Steenhuisens decision to step down in April. Positives the GNU survived previous crises just fine Negatives positioning/valuations are stretched causing some market pain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019133877445599652)  2026-02-04T19:40Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Assessing Chinas benign Japanification prospects The CNY appreciation narrative is now mainstream and it could be associated with more outward FDI (a-la Japan in the 1980s) to the Global South that can boost EMs manufacturing potential. @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2022360969222197741)  2026-02-13T17:23Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"An early Christmas present from Buenos Aires - more FX flexibility (from the position of strength) and the pre-announced reserve accumulation program. Argentinas sovereign bonds are jumping with joy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2000647714351075583)  2025-12-15T19:22Z 10.2K followers, 103.4K engagements


"Brazils central bank is still hawkish and proud (judging by todays minutes) focusing on expectations the labor market and fiscal but also admitting that tight policies are working. The updated Reference Scenario on Thur will signal whether Jans rate cut is realistic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2000944743635935397)  2025-12-16T15:02Z 10.2K followers, 14.7K engagements


"Not all dovish hints are created equal - the market raised a yellow flag in Hungary and HUF gave up the initial gains after the central bank signaled greater data dependency. Hungarys budget gap is considered too wide for comfort and the elections are just around the corner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2000957935141175623)  2025-12-16T15:55Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements


"China continues to guide the daily fix stronger moving to the 7.05/$ handle - which is consistent with the authorities push to boost consumption. Meanwhile CNYs real effective exchange rate is close to the decades low providing support for exports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2001136510028935538)  2025-12-17T03:44Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Fiscal transgressions in EM typically do not go unpunished Fitch cut Colombias rating to BB and the weak fiscal anchor is the key reason why Colombia continues to buck the sovereign rating upgrade trend (P.S. Fitchs attitude towards South Africa is a bit stingy imho)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2001289363833938060)  2025-12-17T13:52Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil The DI curve now prices in the No Rate Cuts for You in January and less dovish [----] scenario after the Monetary Policy Report kept CPI forecasts above the target through [----] and raised GDP projections (despite the massively restrictive real policy rate)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2001662406263451722)  2025-12-18T14:34Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Mexicos policy rate Time for a pause The Banxico opted for another 25bps rate cut today (to mitigate risks to activity) but guidance sounds more hawkish as the real policy rate moved deeper into the neutral range and inflation forecasts edged higher (with upside bias)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2001750587600433330)  2025-12-18T20:25Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The unstoppable rise of others The gradual decline of USD in global international reserves is an accepted fact. Drivers behind the higher share of other currencies are less clear - Diversification Are others encroaching into CNYs space @EricFine123 @Brad_Setser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2002065767387594827)  2025-12-19T17:17Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombia The orthodox policy stance prevails as the central bank stays on hold despite [--] votes for a 50bps rate cut (incl. Finance Minister Avila). Colombia was the worst MTD performer in GBI-EM ($ unhedged) but local duration looks happy today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2002086568446873824)  2025-12-19T18:40Z 10K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil another impressive headline FDI print in Nov which helps to alleviate concerns about the wider current account deficit (3.47% GDP 12m trailing). However there are questions regarding the sectoral structure of FDI (more energy and mining less advanced industries)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2003456854685548735)  2025-12-23T13:25Z 10.2K followers, 13.6K engagements


"Brazils election outlook - Lulas odds of winning in [----] are creeping up again (albeit they are still well below this years highs)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2005707681416503364)  2025-12-29T18:29Z 10.2K followers, 11.9K engagements


"Brazils 10y local yield spread with UST is stuck above 800bps - concerns about fiscal arithmetic is a contributing factor. South Africa is not 100% out of the woods but its fiscal consolidation efforts got rewarded with the highest total return in EM (38.9% $ unhedged)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2005713061928489038)  2025-12-29T18:50Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Muted year-end price action in Argentinas sov. bonds does not fully reflect important structural moves such as the congressional approval of the [----] budget and the Fiscal Innocence Law which show that the administration is committed to using its post-midterm reform mandate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2005744079385272412)  2025-12-29T20:53Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombias min wage increase shocker (23.2% nominal or 17% in real terms) puts the central bank on the defensive increasing the probability of Januarys rate hike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2005812579331985484)  2025-12-30T01:25Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"= Argentina made the first $21mn purchase under the reserve accumulation plan = Argentinas sovereign spread is comfy in the 500bps range and it should compress further if the reserve accumulation program is deemed a success (the [----] target range is $10-17bn which is a lot)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008568880550343055)  2026-01-06T15:58Z 10.8K followers, 46.5K engagements


"ZAR A great point from DB/Oliver Harvey about the positive impact of South Africas improving terms of trade on the currency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008570535241023669)  2026-01-06T16:05Z 10.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Many pointed out that Argentinas pre-announced reserve accumulation program might be insufficient (on its own) to deal with the forthcoming debt payments. But ad hoc $$$ purchases associated with other structural reforms - like privatization - can help to meet debt obligations. = Argentina made the first $21mn purchase under the reserve accumulation plan = Argentinas sovereign spread is comfy in the 500bps range and it should compress further if the reserve accumulation program is deemed a success (the [----] target range is $10-17bn which is a lot) https://t.co/7WEf9BRIUd = Argentina made the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008627644712317181)  2026-01-06T19:52Z 10.8K followers, 71.5K engagements


"Seeing profit-taking in Venezuela as the initial excitement started to wear off. This is understandable but is the Venezuela commentary the restructuring outlook domestic political prospects oil recovery scenarios too doomish Plugging in @EricFine123 and @Brad_Setser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008970225639960951)  2026-01-07T18:33Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas January debt payment math looks much better after reports about $3bn repo with international banks. The BCRAs pre-announced reserve accumulation scheme is off to a good start but longer-term inflows will ultimately depend on structural reforms' progress"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008974374939058345)  2026-01-07T18:49Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements


"What is the implied price of gold if it had to back the global money supply = $39k/oz to back Global M0 = $184k/oz to back Global M2 Russia & Kazakhstan have enough gold to peg currencies today. DM (UK Japan) look super levered @EricFine123 https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-bonds/if-the-dollar-loses-reserve-status-could-gold-surpass-39k/ https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-bonds/if-the-dollar-loses-reserve-status-could-gold-surpass-39k/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2008981378319487110)  2026-01-07T19:17Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The market sees no further rate cuts in Mexico despite the negative output gap signs of easing services pressures and a helping hand from stronger MXN. Core CPI is stuck above the target expectations are edging up and the ex-ante real policy rate is within the neutral band"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009260389817524416)  2026-01-08T13:46Z 10.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Trkiye a fiscal sleeper story in the making A chart from GS shows impressive fiscal adjustment in [----] which was mostly expenditure-based. A nice shift which if sustained - opens room for deeper rate cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009617758028439717)  2026-01-09T13:26Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils inflation ended the year within the target range but the diffusion index edged higher justifying a cautious approach to the easing cycles timeline (it would also be great if expectations show more convergence progress)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009636632346116227)  2026-01-09T14:41Z 10.8K followers, 13.6K engagements


"Its alive () - Chinas consumer confidence finally started to show signs of life. This should encourage the authorities to roll out more targeted support/deal with unfinished homes but this is also an argument that a bazooka-like stimulus might not be needed at this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009653850328998389)  2026-01-09T15:49Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The Fed escalation is good EMs image and many bonds including Brazils local (high yields+attractive valuations) which continue to take later rate cuts (IPCA expectations are still frozen) and political risks associated with President Lulas re-election in stride"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2010709343277125843)  2026-01-12T13:43Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Lower inflation in EM is not always an invitation for knee-jerk easing. New Governor of Hungarys central bank wants to re-start rate cuts and a sharp drop in Dec CPI (3.3%yoy) gives him an excuse. However details (such as high services CPI) call for caution/longer pause"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011073871898628292)  2026-01-13T13:52Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas disinflation: = Decembers upside surprise per se is secondary = Whats more important is that (1) theres no more low-hanging fruit and (2) further disinflation should take place in a context of pro-growth policies which means aggressive structural reforms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011370855398523024)  2026-01-14T09:32Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"China - On a quest to address (at least some) imbalances = The anti-involution push in the fall = Announcing export tax rebate cuts (=export curbs) following another massive trade surplus in Dec = More CNY appreciation to follow @EricFine123 @Brad_Setser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011386621028106457)  2026-01-14T10:35Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"KRW intervention buzz refuses to fade away - the currency has so far showed limited reaction (beyond knee-jerk) to the Bank of Koreas hawkish pause and @SecScottBessent show of solidarity @Brad_Setser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011843963322298704)  2026-01-15T16:52Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"= Trkiyes local bonds Lower expected inflation = Higher real rates and more attractive local bond valuations = And the central bank can cut the policy rate in peace next week especially against the backdrop of solid fiscal consolidation in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2012120264772063520)  2026-01-16T11:10Z 10.9K followers, [----] engagements


"How can Venezuela get its macro mojo back - The radar chart below shows Venezuelas fundamentals (whatever we could surmise) in standard deviations vs. the world average - everything outside the red dotted line is WORSE than the world average. @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2012198654480728495)  2026-01-16T16:21Z 10.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Given that Chinas soft Q4 growth is - at least in part - the result of intentional domestic policy shifts (such as the anti-involution push) is it reasonable to expect a major step up in policy support going forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013225821314388425)  2026-01-19T12:23Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"How is Argentinas new FX mechanism doing FX bands slightly wider Spot ARS slightly stronger. The central bank bought $687mn as of Jan [--] = some sense of normality that should help to address the next external debt pressure point in July"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013339647334617409)  2026-01-19T19:55Z 10.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@Brad_Setser No but then the BCRA purchases are not massive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013342519266845097)  2026-01-19T20:07Z 10.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Brazils expectations are frozen both inflation expectations for the relevant policy horizon and the market expectations for the rate cuts. The central bank will stay put in Jan but hopefully the boards communications will give some clues regarding the March meeting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013649108855067054)  2026-01-20T16:25Z 10.8K followers, 34.4K engagements


"Colombia is by far the best-performing constituent of the EM local bond index YTD despite an atrocious fiscal situation. Having an independent central bank is certainly a big deal. But the market is also betting on an orthodox policy U-turn after the elections"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013665776994013441)  2026-01-20T17:31Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"South Africas local yields no longer look attractive vs. fundamentals. Where can new catalysts come from (1) smaller budget gap (Feb presentation) (2) rating upgrades - will greatly depend on (1) (3) stronger growth esp. per capita GDP (a key structural asset - incl. ratings)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014045051366551912)  2026-01-21T18:38Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@feelug real rates still look attractive vs fundamentals the question is about TRY's impact on total return + political risks. Tomorrow's central bank verdict/reasoning will be fun to watch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014053251100893216)  2026-01-21T19:11Z 10.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Chinas daily CNY fix crossed an important threshold this morning moving below 7.00/$ this adjustment was made easier by $ jitters and it is consistent with the push to support domestic consumption. Plus CNY keeps acting as a key anchor for the rest of EMFX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014734388706029790)  2026-01-23T16:18Z 10.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The End (of Rate Cuts) Is Nigh Asia is the epicenter of the global hawkish adjustment but the key hawkish outlier is actually in LATAM. The market sees +50bps in Colomba next week followed by at least +200bps more in 12m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014737538087350737)  2026-01-23T16:30Z 11K followers, [----] engagements


"Uruguay - A big surprise from a small country: The central bank decided not to wait for majors' decisions and went for a 100bps rate cut =EM is not a monolith + not all EM central banks like strong currencies A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015883919636283672)  2026-01-26T20:25Z 11K followers, [----] engagements


"Bets on federal spending cuts in the U.S. - going extinct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1916834982783340957)  2025-04-28T12:40Z 11.1K followers, 118.9K engagements


"China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011088485416124817)  2026-01-13T14:50Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"China is sticking to its drip-drip stimulus/CNY appreciation game plan which now includes a 25bps cut in structural loan rates. From the wider EM perspective guiding CNY stronger sends an important signal for EMFX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011841104065237041)  2026-01-15T16:41Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"EM currencies are taking the latest bout of geopolitical noise in stride. Central Europes FX is doing particularly well today as commentators discuss the outlook for deeper policy cohesion in Europe and more hedging of U.S. assets in the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013645818939560047)  2026-01-20T16:12Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"No objections from CLP to Chiles new cabinet announcements including Jorge Quirozs nomination as Minister of Finance Addressing fiscal issues will be a top priority for the technocratic team we (and local bonds) keep an eye on the 90-day action plan which has [--] tax bills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013999062836531638)  2026-01-21T15:36Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Are Trkiyes local bonds catching a second wind Todays hawkish 100bps rate cut boosted the central banks credibility improving the outlook for duration and it comes on the heels of solid fiscal adjustment in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014364876701901131)  2026-01-22T15:49Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015827585234514272)  2026-01-26T16:42Z 11.1K followers, 17.3K engagements


"Minor macro surprises are probably not game changers for most EM central banks but the weak USD policy could be a different story if sustained"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016285592623931587)  2026-01-27T23:02Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"CNY internationalization and EM - seeing Bloomberg reports that Brazil plans to make issuance in the yuan in [----] China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016574606354604268)  2026-01-28T18:10Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil - Its a pause And a state-of-the-art communication regarding the next move. Perfection. Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus). https://t.co/poy9dsaGYw Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016626975066988713)  2026-01-28T21:38Z 11.1K followers, 51K engagements


"South Africa local bonds on a lookout for new catalysts. The central banks verdict (a pause) left room for rate cuts (lower CPI fcsts) but importantly - the next budget will have to deliver a positive surprise (against the backdrop of stretched valuations and positioning)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016911487122497910)  2026-01-29T16:29Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombia frontloads rate hikes (+100bps) to address a strong increase in inflation expectations Kudos to the central bank but the decision was split (2 votes for a rate CUT) underscoring the extent of the pre- and post-election policy challenges A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer ="  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017314096308179307)  2026-01-30T19:08Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@liberaldeantoo2 BB+ Not without further structural reforms my friend 🙂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017324093645656236)  2026-01-30T19:48Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"The Colombian peso is not psyched about the fiscal rules suspension reports (I suspect the IMF/rating agencies are not psyched either). The central bank might further weaken support for COP if it cuts again after yesterdays downside CPI surprise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1932457360968110261)  2025-06-10T15:18Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombia = Brazil [---] Colombias central bank co-director called for clear tightening after the shocking min wage hike. The central bank however will have to overcome one small problem extremely dovish (and vocal) Minister of Finance Avila is a voting member of the board https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009291441718112558 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009291441718112558"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009291441718112558)  2026-01-08T15:49Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils updated public debt projections are out - and the Divida Bruta new path looks even more brutal. I think that the underlying GDP growth and policy rate projections are on the rosy side but this is how the National Treasury sees the situation right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011130256304783705)  2026-01-13T17:36Z 11.5K followers, 45.9K engagements


"EM local debt continues to kick the proverbial derriere this year buoyed by high real and nominal yields and $ jitters. Tight spreads are still a headwind for EM sovereign bonds especially IG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014328307580366913)  2026-01-22T13:24Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil managed to post a small basic balance surplus in [----] (current account + FDI) despite a larger than expected seasonal outflow of reinvested earnings in Dec. Both the current account and FDI appear to have stabilized (12m trailing) going into the election year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015819078661800264)  2026-01-26T16:08Z 11.5K followers, 17.6K engagements


"Hungary Is the central banks premature rate cut a risk to local bonds The only brave soul who expects -25bps tomorrow is JPMs Jose Cerveira. Local rates still look attractive vs fundamentals but there is an element of surprise now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015825458168786967)  2026-01-26T16:33Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Korean Won (KRW) every little helps KRW staged a nice rally following reports that the National Pension Services increased [----] target weights for domestic assets (reversing an earlier decision). We also keep an eye on JPY given the still elevated correlation with KRW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015833004149530819)  2026-01-26T17:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016186974067892278)  2026-01-27T16:30Z 11.5K followers, 68.5K engagements


"Brazil - out-of-consensus calls for tomorrow's rate-setting meetings are BTG Pactual (-25bps) and BofA (-50bps) Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus). https://t.co/poy9dsaGYw Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016209239774056472)  2026-01-27T17:58Z 11.5K followers, 12.7K engagements


"U.S. Dollars bearish bias and EM debt - The EM Exceptionalism thesis helped to lift EM debt after the liberation day. Still FX has been an important contributor to EM local bonds total return including this year. Stronger EMFX also helps EM sovereign spreads. @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016542746987704507)  2026-01-28T16:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"= The only remaining EM policy cliffhanger of the week is Colombias rate-setting meeting on Friday. = The market expectations are still on the bloodthirsty side (+250bps in 12m) but Pres Trumps bearish dollar comments shaved off 25bps or so since yesterday A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016627330546794677)  2026-01-28T21:39Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas sovereign spread is making another attempt to get closer to the B-rated peers the BCRAs formal $$$ purchase program is a major positive here. The BCRA bought just over $1bn in Jan and the annual $$$ purchase target is no longer Sci-Fi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017320639586029829)  2026-01-30T19:34Z 11.5K followers, 21.4K engagements


"India as an EM Fixed Income story - Does the FY 2026/27 budget help Revenue projections are conservative but real local yields are low vs. fundamentals and higher than expected gross borrowing + slower pace of fiscal consolidation create extra headwinds. @angusshillingto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018399965567942936)  2026-02-02T19:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Romanias elections - The Romanian leu heaves a huge sigh of relief after the pro-European presidential candidate Dan wins the second round of the elections (with a comfortable margin) EM orthodox policy in action - Romanias central bank is letting the currency (RON) to act as a shock absorber/escape valve. Letting FX go while maintaining high interest rates is a powerful combo that can kickstart an adjustment process without sacrificing international reserves https://t.co/KBfiZ9RqxK EM orthodox policy in action - Romanias central bank is letting the currency (RON) to act as a shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1924265351300493449)  2025-05-19T00:46Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Argentinas bonds are in a sour mood as the oppositions legal push threatens to undermine fiscal consolidation and President Milei might have a rough time during the midterms Argentina reforms - That was a close one The congress rejected Pres Mileis veto of the disability bill but the veto on pensions increase (with higher fiscal costs - est. 1.2% GDP) survived yesterdays vote. The margin was thin though - a precursor of the bumpy midterms Argentina reforms - That was a close one The congress rejected Pres Mileis veto of the disability bill but the veto on pensions increase (with higher fiscal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959991977287586236)  2025-08-25T14:51Z 11.6K followers, 112.3K engagements

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