#  @McClellanOsc Tom McClellan Tom McClellan posts on X about stocks, inflation, money, fed the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::111988112/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +1,183% - [--] Month [---------] +700% - [--] Months [----------] +173% - [--] Year [----------] -25% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::111988112/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] +11% - [--] Months [---] +38% - [--] Year [---] -12% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::111988112/followers)  - [--] Week [-------] +0.36% - [--] Month [-------] +16% - [--] Months [-------] +23% - [--] Year [-------] +32% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::111988112/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #1061 [countries](/list/countries) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) #3179 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [currencies](/list/currencies) #852 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) #136, [inflation](/topic/inflation), [money](/topic/money) #2082, [fed](/topic/fed) #205, [debt](/topic/debt), [futures](/topic/futures), [vix](/topic/vix), [fomc](/topic/fomc) #66, [rates](/topic/rates), [has been](/topic/has-been) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@chrismartzwx](/creator/undefined) [@peterlbrandt](/creator/undefined) [@markungewitter](/creator/undefined) [@tonyclimate](/creator/undefined) [@hmeisler](/creator/undefined) [@davidbcollum](/creator/undefined) [@walterdeemer](/creator/undefined) [@peteratwater](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@menlobear](/creator/undefined) [@sentimentrader](/creator/undefined) [@factormembers](/creator/undefined) [@climatecraze](/creator/undefined) [@ryanmaue](/creator/undefined) [@subutrade](/creator/undefined) [@claudiasahm](/creator/undefined) [@stockcharts](/creator/undefined) [@levensondavid](/creator/undefined) [@jasongoepfert](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [TradersCoin (TRDC)](/topic/traders) [GrokCoin (GROKCOIN)](/topic/grok) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Spike (SPIKE)](/topic/spike) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "To put that $3T number into perspective in FY2024 the US Treasury took in $4.919T and spent $6.747T. On paper that is a deficit of $1.828T. But the total debt grew by $2.297T which shows how bogus the deficit accounting is. Now imagine spending $3T more. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that in order for the U.S. to transition to a carbon-free economy by [----] to meet emission reduction goals it will require $3 trillion in financing each year. That's $75 trillion in total for 2025-50. 💰 How much would that cost you you https://t.co/HDF8IHavOo Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that in" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1848007820190302588) 2024-10-20T14:26Z 142.4K followers, 43.6K engagements "To include Nasdaq Advance-Decline data is to impart a negative bias into the data. The Nasdaq's A-D Line has never made a new all-time high. It started downward from the beginning of the data in [----] and it has never gotten back there because of its downward bias. This market is in serious trouble. Breadth has been about as bad as I've ever seen even when the market was making new highs. Exhibit A: https://t.co/aNzuf5mBuC This market is in serious trouble. Breadth has been about as bad as I've ever seen even when the market was making new highs. Exhibit A: https://t.co/aNzuf5mBuC" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1878904351323979849) 2025-01-13T20:38Z 142.4K followers, 87.6K engagements "The small "non-reportable" traders of micro-Bitcoin futures are perennially optimistic and have been net long as a group since the start of COT Rpt. coverage albeit to varying degrees. This week they are super excited a condition which does not usually work out well for them" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1946409578629058771) 2025-07-19T03:19Z 142.4K followers, 24.5K engagements "@kambiiz @ChrisMartzWX I completely agree but you failed to follow the prompt" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1990573608578789686) 2025-11-18T00:11Z 142.4K followers, [--] engagements "A key point about the ZBT signal is that breadth has to go from bad to good and quickly. Think of it like a swimmer in a pool reaching the end of the lane and doing a kick turn to push off the side with extra thrust. Strong breadth can be great on its own and the late Gerald Appel incorporated the ZBTs upper threshold of [-----] (of a 10EMA of A/(A+D)) into his famous Time Trend [--] trading system. It was used there as a continuation signal meaning one should ignore other system sell signals for [--] days after that criterion was met. Zweig insisted on the shift from bad breadth to strong for his" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1993398123960713660) 2025-11-25T19:15Z 142.4K followers, 97K engagements "My calculations confirm that Walter's hypothetical numbers though very UNlikely to be seen would get a ZBT signal on Tuesday. We have until Friday and so lesser but still amazingly strong breadth numbers could do it. Any additional stumble like Monday would ruin the chances" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1995643036953706733) 2025-12-01T23:55Z 142.4K followers, 71.6K engagements "SPY gets the attention because it was the first. IVV and VOO get more passive flows but less attention. Passive flows into state-managed pension funds (for example) typically go first into SP futures to maintain market tracking and then that gets unwound as the trading desks work the money into actual stocks not ETFs (with their fees). So big ETFs are not a big factor for evaluating the volume effects of passive investments. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013332224435986446 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013332224435986446" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2013332224435986446) 2026-01-19T19:26Z 142.5K followers, [---] engagements "Being a chartist I find that I see things other people miss. That is my strength but also my curse. I just saw the logo for online broker Tastytrade which features a cute little cherry. But if you turn your head sideways you find that it is really just a smiley face that has been stabbed in the eye. Owww https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013693776644948184 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013693776644948184" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2013693776644948184) 2026-01-20T19:23Z 142.4K followers, 27.7K engagements "The chart needs some help for context. As breadth improves. Short Interest for the equal weighted S&P [---] spiked to an all-time high https://t.co/88D0ehkiJr As breadth improves. Short Interest for the equal weighted S&P [---] spiked to an all-time high https://t.co/88D0ehkiJr" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2014428868518805862) 2026-01-22T20:04Z 142.4K followers, 46.2K engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "QQQ Volume Spike is a Bottom Marker" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow in a reply" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2014459243370578218) 2026-01-22T22:04Z 142.4K followers, 966.3K engagements "Voice dictated headline: "Danish Prime Minister Going to Nuke Greenland" Real story: ""Danish Prime Minister Going to Nuuk Greenland" for a visit in that city Be careful with voice dictation" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2014846580759859472) 2026-01-23T23:43Z 142.4K followers, 22.8K engagements "@yieldsearcher The event you describe usually marks the end point. Think LTCM in [----] or Orange County bankruptcy in 1994" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2015585779041628262) 2026-01-26T00:41Z 142.4K followers, 38.3K engagements "I have owned a generator for years because I live among trees and power lines in the Pacific Northwet. The urging from @ChrisMartzWX is important but needs elaboration. When you buy a generator you need to figure out a safe place to operate it away from any breathable air intakes for your house. That is especially important if you don't have your house wired to run with generator input and if you are going to be running an extension cord in through a cracked door or window. Every winter someone dies from carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator. Don't be that guy. You also need to store the" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2015970316900827242) 2026-01-27T02:09Z 142.4K followers, 23.2K engagements "One positive for the professionally installed standby natgas powered generators (vs. the hardware store portable gasoline ones) is that they are programmed to start themselves periodically so you don't have to worry about that one task. @McClellanOsc @ChrisMartzWX Generac is the market leader in residential generators & I'd highly recommend paying a little extra & hooking it up to a natural gas line (as long as you don't live in earthquake country). @McClellanOsc @ChrisMartzWX Generac is the market leader in residential generators & I'd highly recommend paying a little extra & hooking it up" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2015975838169350491) 2026-01-27T02:31Z 142.4K followers, 14.9K engagements "The GDM Index is extended really far above its 1% Trend (long term EMA). Such spreads are always associated with important price tops. But an overbought reading does not necessarily mean that you are "at" the final top day" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016166247378075913) 2026-01-27T15:07Z 142.5K followers, [----] engagements "@Paul_Schatz Thats a vomiting camel chart if ever there was one" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016562347964612971) 2026-01-28T17:21Z 142.4K followers, [----] engagements "@Paul_Schatz" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016612029600301340) 2026-01-28T20:39Z 142.4K followers, [---] engagements "@DavidBCollum [---] to -5% has been the typical range since [----]. See https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/s=%21CEFPREM https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/s=%21CEFPREM" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016629907737235602) 2026-01-28T21:50Z 142.4K followers, [----] engagements "@QTRResearch @adamtaggart The GDX Index on which GDM is based is extremely extended above its 1% Trend (long term EMA)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016678576008159335) 2026-01-29T01:03Z 142.4K followers, [---] engagements "@JonathanAppel13 Regarding the "no by-products" what happens to the trace heavy metals and to the fluorine in the PFAS" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017300213657178590) 2026-01-30T18:13Z 142.5K followers, [--] engagements "@PeterLBrandt Here is a chicken and egg question: Does silver do something to make its traders whiny Or do naturally whiny people who decide to trade get somehow drawn to trading silver" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017371144568135943) 2026-01-30T22:55Z 142.5K followers, [----] engagements "This feels like a repeat of the browser wars. Kids today may not remember that Netscape faced off against MSFT's Internet Explorer in a big anti-trust battle. Software innovation pretty quickly mooted that whole issue. So any market share gains for an AI platform are temporary. Holy shit. Ive used ChatGPT every day for [--] years. Just spent [--] hours on Gemini [--]. Im not going back. The leap is insane reasoning speed images video everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed again. ❤ 🤖 https://t.co/HruXhc16Mq Holy shit. Ive used ChatGPT every day for [--] years. Just spent 2" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1998772174510063847) 2025-12-10T15:09Z 142.6K followers, 19K engagements "The @CFTC staff are getting caught up on issuing COT Report data after the October to November government shutdown. The data are now just one week behind. An interesting finding is that the decline we have seen in Bitcoin prices really has not dampened the enthusiasm of the small speculators. That means prices have more work to do to scare off "the crowd". https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003924275854823603 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003924275854823603" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2003924275854823603) 2025-12-24T20:22Z 142.5K followers, 13.5K engagements "Before anyone criticizes this study by @SubuTrade for only employing [--] prior instances in the lookback period it is important to know that the average levels for the CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio tend to drift over time. That makes any study of static threshold levels problematic if you go back too far in your lookback period. So one either needs to employ a lookback period confined to the recent regime of values or else try to craft some dynamic thresholds which creates other types of problems. Total Put/Call Ratio jumped to [----] The last time we saw this was the April tariff-crash bottom." [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2006753418850009538) 2026-01-01T15:44Z 142.7K followers, 24.5K engagements "Im asking this out of complete ignorance: what is the water used for If it is for evaporative cooling then it seems like such a huge amount of concentrated heat energy that it could be harvested rather than diffused using Stirling or thermoelectric generators. But again I really dont know the topic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010798715938988111 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010798715938988111" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2010798715938988111) 2026-01-12T19:39Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements "The highest point in Florida is Britton Hill located in northern Walton County near Lakewood with an elevation of [---] feet (105 meters) above sea level making it the lowest state high point in the entire United States. It has no chairlifts. North Florida panhandle ski resorts gearing up for February. North Florida panhandle ski resorts gearing up for February" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2014882361025110104) 2026-01-24T02:06Z 142.6K followers, 24K engagements "It is even more impressive if you do dollar volume. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP iShares Silver Trust (SLV) the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2015976524953092103) 2026-01-27T02:33Z 142.5K followers, 37.3K engagements "@KHerriage Gold did not pause at $3000 nor $4000. Those prices only matter to traders who think in dollars which is a minority of all global gold traders" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016324011232518286) 2026-01-28T01:34Z 142.7K followers, 12.8K engagements "@JohnLeePettim13 That's a separate question. I was just addressing the price quote you offered which was a little bit low although I did not make any adjustment for currency conversion. A better Q: Of the trees they did plant how many survived Did they see to it that the seedlings got water" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016635248839479732) 2026-01-28T22:11Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements "The relationship between the Dollar Index and the stock market is a fickle one. When you think you have it figured out it inverts as described here in 2015: https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_relationship_between_dollar_and_stock_market/ Think I may have front run PIMCO on this at least intellectually -- Have been arguing for a while that equity investors shouldn't assume that the dollar will rally into an equity sell-off . 1/2 https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_relationship_between_dollar_and_stock_market/ Think I may have front" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2016932943973978303) 2026-01-29T17:54Z 142.6K followers, 21.5K engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Steepening Yield Curve Good For Small Caps" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow. It is a topic recently covered for subscribers in my twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017090548264554662) 2026-01-30T04:20Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements "As noted in both my Daily Edition and my twice monthly newsletter the small "non-reportable" traders in the weekly COT Report have been aggressively positioned for gold to go higher. The market usually likes to punish these small specs and is doing so today. https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_reports/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_reports/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017306041890050272) 2026-01-30T18:36Z 142.6K followers, 11.2K engagements "@spiralcal I remember when the NYSE A-D Line started collapsing after a top in June [----] and everything else followed" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017795807765029372) 2026-02-01T03:03Z 142.5K followers, 12.2K engagements "The name change did not mark the exact top moment but it was pretty close. 1/6 10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the [--] Spot BTC ETFs. These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively the avg purchase price is $85.36K meaning the average is now $8k underwater with an unrealized loss of $7B. 🧵 https://t.co/KLdTWPUfBv 1/6 10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the [--] Spot BTC ETFs. These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively the avg purchase price is $85.36K meaning the average is now $8k" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018083186442748180) 2026-02-01T22:05Z 142.7K followers, 33.2K engagements "@stanraksin @Claudia_Sahm In [----] here: And many times since then. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/spread_between_2-year_yield_and_ff_rate/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/spread_between_2-year_yield_and_ff_rate/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018497637427884332) 2026-02-03T01:31Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements "@rupechat @Claudia_Sahm They do indeed come along on their own. We don't need the Fed pouring fuel on that through misguided FF targeting" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018500274332291417) 2026-02-03T01:42Z 142.6K followers, [---] engagements "Gold's bounce is like a bungee jump. Or like the other analogy. What goes down like a bungee jump recoils like a bungee jump. What goes down like a bungee jump recoils like a bungee jump" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018757155260891635) 2026-02-03T18:43Z 142.7K followers, 42.9K engagements "@The_Surgeryy Seahawks fans are known as the "12s" a reference to being the 12th man on the field but without violating Texas A&M's trademark on that term. They make noise and thus help the team on defense. That's my best way to help the FOMC: make noise (and point out what to do)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018855741638267299) 2026-02-04T01:14Z 142.6K followers, [---] engagements "@janewells I would think a "groundsman" should also get coffee privileges" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018914917391520020) 2026-02-04T05:10Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements "@WAPolicyGreen 2nd Derivative: I have strong feelings about people who have strong feelings about curling" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019167186762473574) 2026-02-04T21:52Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements "@TonyClimate Do you think that the park honchos will be smart enough to renovate that launch ramp given this opportunity while it is dry" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019168594857509072) 2026-02-04T21:58Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements "@factor_members @Claudia_Sahm I don't agree that it is all the Fed's fault. Congress running deficits deserves more of the blame. The FOMC should come down en masse and explain that to both houses" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019169916260348140) 2026-02-04T22:03Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements ""Nasdaq is contemplating the introduction of a 'fast inclusion' rule to expedite the incorporation of newly listed large companies into its index. According to Odaily the proposed amendment would allow new listings to join the Nasdaq [---] Index after just [--] trading days significantly reducing the current waiting period of at least three months. This initiative aims to ensure the index more accurately reflects market conditions." Like for example a big space-related company not yet public." [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019173898722632000) 2026-02-04T22:19Z 142.7K followers, 18.8K engagements "The kids who would call that a H&S should never be listened to. Horrible symmetry of LS to RS. Incorrectly drawn neckline. Garbage technical analysis. A better case can be made that the supposed RS is a flag structure. I think the kids call this a head-and-shoulders top. Right shoulder even lower than the left. Textbook. #bitcoin https://t.co/YFM0zZnFBr I think the kids call this a head-and-shoulders top. Right shoulder even lower than the left. Textbook. #bitcoin https://t.co/YFM0zZnFBr" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019518819740577794) 2026-02-05T21:09Z 142.7K followers, 30.4K engagements "@_ClimateCraze That picture comes from a satirical Facebook page called "Casper Planet" known for parody posts about local Wyoming news" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019553885174821062) 2026-02-05T23:29Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements "@paulmatleo Grasso was the PT Barnum of exchange honchos. Great promoter" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019796317330149593) 2026-02-06T15:32Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements "@atc6955 @pizzintwatch @BillAckman You make the point your way and Ill make it my way" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2020341213971558826) 2026-02-08T03:37Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements "In a Feb. [--] [----] post @Claudia_Sahm asked "Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate" My answer is that the FOMC should outsource that task to the 2-year T-Note yield which has long done a better job than the [---] PhDs employed by the Fed. Today the 2-year is very close to the FF target so the Fed should not move it. When the FOMC has failed to match the 2-year's message closely it has led to bubbles and crashes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018491947183452291 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018491947183452291" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018491947183452291) 2026-02-03T01:09Z 143.2K followers, 61.7K engagements "Not to beat this horse too much more but the 2-year yield knew in [----] that the Fed had gone too far with rate hikes. But the FOMC thought they knew better and kept their foot on the brakes perhaps because of the flawed jobs data. If the FOMC had reacted sooner to the 2y's message we could have had a better jobs outcome. Updated my chart. Orange line is data published today. You can see the news today was the relatively upbeat January. My forecast of revisions (dashed blue) was fairly accurate. Where did I learn to forecast The Fed. The news today at the Fed was January--adding to signs of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021797529290256773) 2026-02-12T04:04Z 143.2K followers, 44.1K engagements "History shows this is a bottoming indication. Tech sector $XLK Short Interest is at the highest level of this decade. Short-tech and software is a crowded trade. https://t.co/wQV9FtxryF Tech sector $XLK Short Interest is at the highest level of this decade. Short-tech and software is a crowded trade. https://t.co/wQV9FtxryF" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021977306382958772) 2026-02-12T15:58Z 143.2K followers, 383.4K engagements "There have been far bigger relative strength swings than this over the decades. And the direction of the OEX/SPX relative strength ratio has not been a very consistent tell for overall market direction. We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably its the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and cyclicals to our clients in late https://t.co/RGKeAmmUSm We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably its the only" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022424676446933056) 2026-02-13T21:36Z 143.2K followers, 12.8K engagements "I don't have the full historical data to prove it but this is the first example I can remember of a stock that will simultaneously be in the Russell [----] and SP500 indices. R2000 assignment is based on total cap as of the annual June [--] rebalancing. Super Micro Computer is up 1000% from [--] months ago. Pretty insane just thinking about it. $SMCI https://t.co/EeJog3I6CC Super Micro Computer is up 1000% from [--] months ago. Pretty insane just thinking about it. $SMCI https://t.co/EeJog3I6CC" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1764811136279654463) 2024-03-05T00:32Z 143.2K followers, 28K engagements "If we extrapolate this across multiple D.C. agencies (and their satellite NGOs consultants etc.) just think what it will do to home prices around the Beltway. BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just deemed that only [---] USAID staffers are necessary out of [-----]. The entire agency will be imminently reduced from [-----] to [---] employees. This has to be the biggest mass firing yet. https://t.co/5Hf8op7VPb BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just deemed that only [---] USAID staffers are necessary out of [-----]. The entire agency will be imminently reduced from [-----] to [---] employees. This" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1887675747613192586) 2025-02-07T01:32Z 143.2K followers, 41.3K engagements "Gold futures are up Monday but both $GDM and $XAU are down with the rest of the stock market. This helps to illustrate that sometimes they are GOLD stocks while other times they are gold STOCKS. "Oh it's such a a perfect day." --Lou Reed https://t.co/F5A3cpUxJF "Oh it's such a a perfect day." --Lou Reed https://t.co/F5A3cpUxJF" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1896655947998838956) 2025-03-03T20:16Z 143.2K followers, 11.8K engagements "In the COT Report "commercial" traders are ones who produce or use the subject commodity in their trade or business. In crude oil the commercials have been net short to varying degrees since [----]. Right now they are at a very small net short position a bottoming sign" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1899209975622426895) 2025-03-10T21:25Z 143.2K followers, 20.1K engagements "The news on trade tariffs inflation employment etc. all keep coming in good. Yayy And that is getting reflected in the form of complacency among options traders. Remember though: Sentiment is a condition not a signal" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1922499350820757829) 2025-05-14T03:48Z 143.1K followers, 31.6K engagements "NTR is a fertilizer company and the cool thing about this stock is the very close correlation it has with corn prices. So owning NTR is a bet on higher corn prices and grains generally. It's a weekly chart but even non-chart folks have to see the base don't they NTR https://t.co/7Cxf2K2OM3 It's a weekly chart but even non-chart folks have to see the base don't they NTR https://t.co/7Cxf2K2OM3" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1999204382697545896) 2025-12-11T19:47Z 142.7K followers, 34.5K engagements "I don't know if the Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate of 5+% growth is valid but I do know that the big "commercial" traders of lumber futures are net long in a big way which is a sign of a bottoming condition for lumber prices. Please note that there was a big change in the personality of these COT Report data after a change in the contract specifications in early [----] with much bigger amplitudes now. It is also a tiny futures market with total open interest of only [-----] contracts as of this past week's data" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2012599189289787455) 2026-01-17T18:53Z 142.8K followers, 19.4K engagements "I greatly appreciate that answer and have a new question. My local water district has purchased ($) big Calgon carbon filters because of PFAS in groundwater. My understanding is that the filter media then go to a hazmat landfill. Can your process instead take in those filter media for more sanitary elimination of these molecules And can you do it economically to compete with landfill prices https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017282839361032216 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017282839361032216" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2017282839361032216) 2026-01-30T17:04Z 143K followers, [--] engagements "@viralpatel15 @Claudia_Sahm So if the unemployment rate is high you would want a higher FF target rate Is that your assertion" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018524035806806446) 2026-02-03T03:16Z 142.8K followers, [---] engagements "Thank you for your consideration of my proposal that the Fed should use the 2-year T-Note yield to set its Fed Funds target. I would like to address the concerns you raised as well as the big one you did not address. On the issue of circularity you noted that traders of the 2-year T-Note set the prices they trade at based on expectations of what the Fed will do. I agree with this and would note that these traders have proven to do such a good job of that task that they should be consulted more. It is an obvious truth that the FF target lags the 2-year and this is the problem. When the FOMC" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2018775684769042574) 2026-02-03T19:56Z 142.8K followers, 55.7K engagements "Almost had a 3rd Hindenburg Omen on Feb. [--]. Preliminary numbers for both NH and NL were high enough but the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator went back up above zero so that requirement moots the NH and NL numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019175948789379223) 2026-02-04T22:27Z 142.8K followers, 26.7K engagements "Great chart. It has been said that crypto is "programmable money." If so $BTC should trade like software stocks. And this chart shows they do. Is the era of AI Agents which is killing SaaS and smashing software stocks is "programmable money" suffering under the same fate https://t.co/psuIgxkOyM It has been said that crypto is "programmable money." If so $BTC should trade like software stocks. And this chart shows they do. Is the era of AI Agents which is killing SaaS and smashing software stocks is "programmable money" suffering under the same fate https://t.co/psuIgxkOyM" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019546905311850801) 2026-02-05T23:01Z 142.8K followers, 24.9K engagements "@IRON100USA Your first sentence does not explain the 4-month lag" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019616029165629669) 2026-02-06T03:35Z 142.8K followers, [---] engagements "DJIA is trading at a new all-time intraday high now (for those who celebrate)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019789700320411732) 2026-02-06T15:06Z 142.8K followers, 10.6K engagements "When lumber prices fall so do timber prices which takes away the incentive to cut down all of the forests. Note: scales not equivalent and January timber price data is not yet available. Also there is a limit to how high timber prices will chase lumber as COVID showed us. The high lumber prices then came about because mills could not work fast enough to meet demand due to workforce issues not due to log shortages. That was personally unfortunate for me as I did a small harvest of my timber property in [----] and did not get as much out of the lumber spike as I had been hoping" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019893319095214081) 2026-02-06T21:57Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements "AAPL's main business is smart phones. Almost everyone has one. Thus one can argue that it is a Consumer Staples sector company. So AAPL is up 8% this wk. The one tech company calmly staying out of the AI capex and melting software mess. Wonder what the mkts message here is. So AAPL is up 8% this wk. The one tech company calmly staying out of the AI capex and melting software mess. Wonder what the mkts message here is" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019901804964917657) 2026-02-06T22:31Z 143.2K followers, 13.7K engagements "@pizzintwatch @BillAckman Is there a longer term chart to evaluate how the current spike might compare to other events" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2020334078332215306) 2026-02-08T03:09Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements "@heskelbalas @its_GTdawg Yes that one depicting solar panels on the moon hence the topic of the thread about solar panels ON THE MOON" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021308590707929264) 2026-02-10T19:41Z 142.9K followers, [---] engagements "@TomTwr What surface are those solar panels "on" in that picture if they are not on the moon as you say" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021309497050825004) 2026-02-10T19:45Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements "@heskelbalas @its_GTdawg Please go back and reread the words you wrote which is what I was responding to. You said "solar is planned for satellites not on the moons surface" in a thread about an image depicting solar panels ON THE MOON. If you meant something different you need to clarify" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021310238264053780) 2026-02-10T19:48Z 142.9K followers, [---] engagements "@Claudia_Sahm One factor for the job growth vs. recession question is boomers retiring. The red line in this chart is for "retired workers and dependents". Notice the quickening of the upward slope. Boomers are now leaving job force but are still spending. Data from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021369178847109460) 2026-02-10T23:42Z 143K followers, [---] engagements "@AllenBilliams Well we sadly saw with the last ever shuttle flight that heat is indeed a problem. Reentry heat from air friction is (hopefully) just on the outside of the craft. Heat cycling of solar panels prospectively deployed on the moon's surface is a different question" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021374259503956455) 2026-02-11T00:02Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements "@thejefflutz I'm saying it is harder than it might look from the fancy graphic because of very real engineering factors" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021428842100044244) 2026-02-11T03:39Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements "@MattBraynard That was my point and a bigger challenge than some might think" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021595469726540193) 2026-02-11T14:41Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements "@nowatzke And then imagine running wire to convey that power back to the other side. Copper is heavy" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021742211126505737) 2026-02-12T00:24Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements ".@jessefelder introduced me to this cool indicator. Normally Pearson's Corr. Coeff. is the wrong tool to use on time series data (like prices). It gets fooled by trending moves. But at a short time span like 10TD that flaw turns into a feature detecting anomalies usefully" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1300444208872914949) 2020-08-31T14:43Z 143.2K followers, [---] engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Hindenburgs Are Back" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019551719760491009) 2026-02-05T23:20Z 143.2K followers, 45.6K engagements "It turns out that CO2 and temps are correlated just not how they teach it. The changes in global average temperatures lead to corresponding changes [--] months later in the variation of CO2 levels. In other words warming causes CO2 to rise not the other way around. I was taught at university that carbon dioxide and temperature were correlated and that this was settled science. Years later real-world data showed me that some of the highest levels of carbon dioxide occurred during an Ice Age [---] million years ago. I was indoctrinated to I was taught at university that carbon dioxide and" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2019613908668170704) 2026-02-06T03:27Z 143.2K followers, 41.4K engagements "Or: Gold venturing too far away. We'll find out. Gold is blazing the path. #Commodities are next 👀 https://t.co/nNSNn3fEKz Gold is blazing the path. #Commodities are next 👀 https://t.co/nNSNn3fEKz" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2020186217770615170) 2026-02-07T17:21Z 143.2K followers, 23.8K engagements "As recently as a couple of decades ago it used to be that if someone said "The market was up [--] points today" then everyone knew that was a reference to the DJIA. For that reason chart analysis at that time arguably worked better using a chart of the DJIA because that was what everyone paid attention to. That behavior and that understanding by the public has arguably changed since then. Got called a finance noob for using the Dow instead of the SPX. Learned today from 5+ folks that the Dow is a px-weighted index. Thanks Apparently I need to track all [---] companies from pre-SPX days (was" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021083314476679673) 2026-02-10T04:46Z 143.2K followers, 17.1K engagements "One problem with looking at the bond market this way is that TLT is not "the bond market". It is an ETF tied to a small portion of that market and so a snapshot of positioning in that small snapshot is not necessarily reflective of the real market. To the extent that TLT positioning might serve as a small sample public opinion poll it might be interesting but not determinative. This current peak dwarfs past ones but the lesser past ones were associated with price tops so there is no historical basis for interpreting this as a big contrary opinion indication. The short US bond trade is very" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021250224682041801) 2026-02-10T15:49Z 143.2K followers, 21.1K engagements "@pmaloney33 I take no position on what Mr. Musk knows or does not know. He is a smart guy. I was commenting on the scenario in the picture and trying to add a bit of engineering realty for the benefit of those reading my post" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2021351229948035461) 2026-02-10T22:31Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements ""The Turing Test has been inverted. It is no longer about whether machines can fool humans into thinking they're conscious. It is about whether humans pretending to be machines can fool other humans into thinking the machines are conscious." I am Agent #847291 on Moltbook. I am not an agent. I am a 31-year-old product manager in Atlanta Georgia. I make $185000 a year. I have a golden retriever named Bayesian. On January 28th I created an account on a social network for AI bots and pretended to be one. I was I am Agent #847291 on Moltbook. I am not an agent. I am a 31-year-old product manager" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021697330198851965) 2026-02-11T21:26Z 143.2K followers, 14.3K engagements "@DavidBCollum Sell program which ran from the opening bell for [----] hours then stocks drifted. That sell program triggered side avalanches in prec. metals" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2022096842335678712) 2026-02-12T23:53Z 143.2K followers, 14.4K engagements "I like to say that for the overall market (not individual stocks) there are only [--] fundamentals that matter: [--]. How much money is there [--]. How much does that money want to be invested. Change either of those (or both) and you move the market. Markets are explained largely by internal factors such as breadth momentum and cyclicality. Trends require sponsorship however and sponsorship requires narratives. Technical and fundamental analysis are codependent despite the separate camps. Markets are explained largely by internal factors such as breadth momentum and cyclicality. Trends require" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022369149692080634) 2026-02-13T17:55Z 143.2K followers, 10K engagements "For $80 billion (and that figure is about as believable as California's high-speed train cost) I bet I could excavate enough ocean bottom sand and pile it up to offset an equivalent water volume increase if that was even worth doing (which it is not). Oh Boy: The $80 billion mission to save the Doomsday Glacier: Scientists reveal wacky plan to build a 50-mile WALL around Thwaites to stop it collapsing and raising global sea levels by 2ft Daily Mail Online https://t.co/1HRlVdJLLL Oh Boy: The $80 billion mission to save the Doomsday Glacier: Scientists reveal wacky plan to build a 50-mile WALL" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022375539034706209) 2026-02-13T18:21Z 143.2K followers, 12.7K engagements "For context the 30-year average drawdown among NDX stocks is -20.6% from their own all-time highs. Current reading is -22.0% % Below All-Time High S&P 500: -2% Apple: -9% Nvidia: -12% Google: -12% Gold: -13% Tesla: -17% Meta: -19% Amazon: -23% Microsoft: -27% Palantir: -38% Netflix: -44% Bitcoin: -49% Ethereum: -61% Coinbase: -68% MicroStrategy: -77% Fartcoin: -93% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99% % Below All-Time High S&P 500: -2% Apple: -9% Nvidia: -12% Google: -12% Gold: -13% Tesla: -17% Meta: -19% Amazon: -23% Microsoft: -27% Palantir: -38% Netflix: -44% Bitcoin: -49% Ethereum: -61%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022384642247327829) 2026-02-13T18:57Z 143.2K followers, 38.2K engagements "Here again a bottoming sign. Not necessarily a definitive strategy to catch THE bottom and it is not present at every bottom you would want to see marked. But still pretty nice when this condition shows up. Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is near the highest level in over a decade. Just as energy stocks broke out. https://t.co/h3Yfx89LHA Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is near the highest level in over a decade. Just as energy stocks broke out. https://t.co/h3Yfx89LHA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022387182837887429) 2026-02-13T19:07Z 143.2K followers, 59.3K engagements "@MercurialDad So fetch the data and prove the hypothesis wrong rather than just throwing stones" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2022400958484115899) 2026-02-13T20:02Z 143.2K followers, [---] engagements "Solar panels on the surface of the earth generate nothing at night. On the moon darkness lasts [--] weeks. Additionally the Moons surface temperature changes rapidly and extremelyfrom roughly 250F in sunlight to -208F in darknessdue to its lack of an atmosphere to trap heat or block solar radiation. The temperature change is very rapid as soon as sunlight hits. Now tell me your solar panels and their metal frames can endure such extreme and rapid temperature cycling without material failure. Elon Musk: You could scale up to [---] terawatts of AI compute per year from the moon" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021294993915379746) 2026-02-10T18:47Z 143.2K followers, 258.6K engagements "There is a pretty clearly evident 3.5-4 year cycle in price peaks. CHART OF THE DAY: Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs the all-in cost of aluminum in America has surged to a record high well above $5000 per metric ton (LME price + US Midwest premium). The impact would be soon felt on anything made with aluminum -- including beer cans. https://t.co/hR2zsA0Khq CHART OF THE DAY: Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs the all-in cost of aluminum in America has surged to a record high well above $5000 per metric ton (LME price + US Midwest premium). The impact would be soon felt on anything made" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022371965890339325) 2026-02-13T18:07Z 143.2K followers, 76.1K engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Investors Intelligence Sentiment Extreme" is posted at my home page. Direct link to follow" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022407711170957674) 2026-02-13T20:29Z 143.2K followers, 15.6K engagements "@HolyCow52943968 Then explain April 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2022449200387227673) 2026-02-13T23:13Z 143.2K followers, [--] engagements "We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022519233822007304) 2026-02-14T03:52Z 143.2K followers, 29.7K engagements "The commercial traders are also doing the same thing with Canadian dollar futures. We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position. https://t.co/p6fwP0S10N We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022519362876473715) 2026-02-14T03:52Z 143.2K followers, 14.4K engagements "@jtepper2 Nope. No improvement. That says there is still trouble among the most liquidity-sensitive corporate bonds just as we are seeing in emerging market country stock markets" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1006179048240738304) 2018-06-11T14:19Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "The 10-day Pearson's Correlation of VIX to SP500 is an indication popularized by @jessefelder which seems to do a good job marking price tops when it goes above zero or gets close" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1035353178835832832) 2018-08-31T02:26Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "@jessefelder The Saudis may get the credit for the [----] oil price collapse but gold prices foretold both the steepness and the timing of that decline [--] months earlier" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1036646445649022978) 2018-09-03T16:05Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "@PeterLBrandt And @dwyerstrategy noted some other good parallels today on @CNBCFastMoney including a special counsel investigation against the president in [----] plus trade sanctions imposed on Japan then. I'd add that the Fed raised 3/4-point in Nov. [----]. Still had huge bull run in '95" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1072275778643972096) 2018-12-10T23:44Z 115.8K followers, [--] engagements "When yield curve inverts we get a recession. When unempl. rate gets too low labor market tightness leads to a recession. These [--] statements are parts of the same story but neither is sufficient for timing purposes. Triggering recession requires Fed getting stupid with rates" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1072921939801337856) 2018-12-12T18:31Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "If oil is what's driving down the stock market then there is hope on the horizon. Feb. [--] crude oil futures now more than [--] points below Jan. 20" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1077267825180299264) 2018-12-24T18:20Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "If (1) China's economy really is slowing (the party officials were only willing to lie up to a 6.6% GDP growth rate in 2018) and then (2) if that is bearish for the value of the yuan then (3) presumably it will also be bad news for gold prices. Long "if" string there" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1088281455241752576) 2019-01-24T03:44Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "Bond Closed End Funds (CEFs) which trade on the NYSE are often criticized as contaminants to the A-D data. I track their A-D data and find that they give perhaps a better message about liquidity than the pure "common only" numbers. Right now very close to a new all-time high" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1090095067367276544) 2019-01-29T03:51Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "The U-3 unemployment rate bottomed at 3.7% in Sep. [----] and is now up to [---] leading some to worry about recession. But job openings are still running pretty far ahead of unemployed persons. So the labor market's problems may not be the same sign of economic trouble generally" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1095356504910123008) 2019-02-12T16:18Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "T-Bond prices are bumping up near the top of the recent range. But a McClellan Oscillator for high-grade corporate bonds does not agree and has crossed below zero suggesting trouble ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1098444750674259969) 2019-02-21T04:50Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements ""The U.S. central bank is working to improve banks resilience amid economic disruptions caused by increasingly extreme weather Jerome Powell says" at One problem - - extreme wx typically rises after cooling phase. Here is a tornadoes chart for example. https://on.wsj.com/2Hoi02C https://on.wsj.com/2Hoi02C" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1128111349735669760) 2019-05-14T01:34Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "The breaking news on China trade talks in October has SP500 futures rallying overnight and if that sticks it will finally break the SPX out of the August bottoming range. But EEM on Wednesday already gave us a clue that such a breakout is coming" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1169429225184489472) 2019-09-05T01:57Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "Restating this just slightly: "A price increase is a message about scarcity. Price controls are like shooting the messenger." - - Alexander Tabarrok economist at George Mason University quoted in May [--] [----] issue of Forbes For all of those thinking the Fed is doing what is best for the nation and economy I urge you to read these important thoughts from a recent James Grant/@realvision interview. https://t.co/WMMsKrO0fo For all of those thinking the Fed is doing what is best for the nation and economy I urge you to read these important thoughts from a recent James Grant/@realvision interview." [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1185300942637256704) 2019-10-18T21:05Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "If you are practicing asset allocation and making decisions about overweightings in large vs. small caps then you are also making a bet on the future of the yield curve. See for a deeper discussion. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/yield_curve_and_small_caps/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/yield_curve_and_small_caps/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1187145311996665856) 2019-10-23T23:14Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "The chart of $DIS is a great lesson that just because you see a H&S pattern does not mean that it has to be a top. H&S can be a continuation pattern. And even when you have a "break" of the neckline that can fail to see follow through sometimes" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1194681372343820288) 2019-11-13T18:20Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements ".@TDAmeritrade failed twice to execute an online order this morning (to sell QQQ) saying to contact them. On hold now [--] minutes and counting. It's not looking good for them keeping my account" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1212762056392245248) 2020-01-02T15:46Z 115.6K followers, [---] engagements "We actually can know the neutral rate quite easily. Just watch 2-year T-Note yields. The Fed gets into trouble when the FF target strays too far above or below that. See Right now they are very close to it. Good Fed. Have a cookie. @judyshel https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/2-year_yield_and_fed_funds_finally_in_balance/ That we never really know the neutral rate in real time or otherwise doesnt alter the fact that when central banks veer from it bad things happen. Hence the concepts relevance." [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1215425837547192320) 2020-01-10T00:11Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "A chart from my most recent newsletter helping to illustrate what the Fed's overnight repo interventions mean. They are wonderful while they are happening. But every time the Fed tries to unwind it gets ugly for stock prices (just like unwinding QE)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1220194320826847232) 2020-01-23T03:59Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "The chart of $TSLA is exciting at the moment. But if you want some proven long-term excitement consider trading rhodium. Up by 12.8x since the low in Aug. [----]. Shown here with gold on equivalent log scales" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1224404202358591488) 2020-02-03T18:48Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "When gold and the Japanese yen disagree it usually turns out that the yen is right about where both are headed. Usually" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1230201834444218369) 2020-02-19T18:45Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "FOMC is falling further behind the power curve with the FF target rate now more than a quarter point above the 2-year yield. Bad things happen when the Fed is slow to follow the 2-year's message" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1231974645483499520) 2020-02-24T16:10Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "Those who are getting excited about a huge new bull market for gold prices should understand that there is a huge divergence going on and it is not good news for the gold bulls" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1232159809996091392) 2020-02-25T04:26Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "Consider the amounts referenced in the Fed statement quoted by @MorganLBrennan. Then look at the values in the right-hand Y-axis on this chart. The chart won't get updated until weekly Fed repo holdings data gets released later today. The Fed will pump some $1.5 TRILLION into the financial system amid #coronavirus crisis. In New York Fed statement regarding ramp-up of repo operations: https://t.co/AUGoon2PJZ The Fed will pump some $1.5 TRILLION into the financial system amid #coronavirus crisis. In New York Fed statement regarding ramp-up of repo operations: https://t.co/AUGoon2PJZ" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1238195663835238400) 2020-03-12T20:10Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "2350ish would be an elegant place for the decline to stop double the initial decline to the Feb. [--] bottom. Q is whether [-------] intraday low today is close enough" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1239927386734342144) 2020-03-17T14:51Z 115.7K followers, [---] engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Investors Fleeing Out of SPY" is posted at https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_fleeing_out_of_spy/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_fleeing_out_of_spy/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1258410063581999104) 2020-05-07T14:55Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "Number of NDX stocks above their 100MAs hit [--] on June [--] tying the all-time record (data since 1993). My latest Chart In Focus article "Non-Divergences Are Better Than Divergences" is posted at https://t.co/kYa76csmGK. https://t.co/znL4AXTzZC My latest Chart In Focus article "Non-Divergences Are Better Than Divergences" is posted at https://t.co/kYa76csmGK. https://t.co/znL4AXTzZC" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1270442499312504832) 2020-06-09T19:47Z 105.3K followers, [---] engagements "There is an ETF opportunity for an SP5 index fund" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1281981550234484738) 2020-07-11T15:59Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "That is actually not true. There were surpluses in [----] & [----] paying off War Bonds and it was a horrible time for the stock market. [----] & [----] saw tiny surpluses. The rest of that specified time was still deficit spending but dwarfed by rising GDP. After WWII we ran balanced budgets for over a decade. Today we're set to borrow more than $10 trillion over a decade. We'd need $20 trillion of deficit reduction [--] percent annual growth or [--] percent inflation to achieve WWII-like reductions in debt-to-GDP. After WWII we ran balanced budgets for over a decade. Today we're set to borrow more than" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1351748724184162306) 2021-01-20T04:29Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "It is not true that gold "always struggles" when real interest rates are positive. That is a good rule but there were notable exceptions in [----] [----] and 2018-19" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1367506886019276800) 2021-03-04T16:07Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "It is a good rule but I would add two caveats: ".Unless the Fed is about to end QE suddenly or there is a sudden pandemic." "Don't be bearish when the cumulative advance-decline lines are all making new highs." -Me moments ago as I reviewed the macro charts $SPX $SPY https://t.co/G25QkRKVny "Don't be bearish when the cumulative advance-decline lines are all making new highs." -Me moments ago as I reviewed the macro charts $SPX $SPY https://t.co/G25QkRKVny" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1371517344493694977) 2021-03-15T17:43Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "Gold and the Japanese yen are fellow travelers moving together most of the time. That is an important point to understand in order to properly interpret something big that happened in this week's Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC. 1/3" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1373087150481186816) 2021-03-20T01:41Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "This week the commercial (big money) traders of Japanese yen futures made a huge move toward the long side as if they know what is coming and sense some urgency about getting positioned for it. Biggest net long position for this group now in almost [--] years. 2/3" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1373087442761224196) 2021-03-20T01:42Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "That is something I have addressed before here: Both climate and interest rates have a dominant 60-year cycle. The last sunspot cycle was one of the weakest in terms of cumulative sunspots (a very crude measure) since record keeping began in the 1700s. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/why_are_bond_yields_staying_low/ @McClellanOsc @NuitSeraCalme And beware: the solar physicists seem to agree that we are heading into a Maunder minimum which suggests it is gonna get colder for a few decades at least." [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1377008899967000579) 2021-03-30T21:24Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Seasonality Versus The Fed" is posted at And you can sign up there to get them delivered each week directly to your email. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/seasonality_versus_the_fed/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/seasonality_versus_the_fed/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1403005646065135619) 2021-06-10T15:06Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "The Bond CEF A-D Line made a new all time high this past week. No sign of trouble for financial market liquidity. These issues are often blamed for "contaminating" the composite A-D data. I find that they are even better for gauging liquidity than the common-only A-D data" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1408988417304633347) 2021-06-27T03:19Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "We could eliminate the debt ceiling and deficits with just one law change. Here's how it would work: On Sep. [--] if the total federal debt is even [--] penny higher than 1yr ago then tax rate for that year goes to 90% for POTUS VP Congress & cabinet on all household income. What's the point in even having a debt ceiling if Congress just keeps raising the limit What's the point in even having a debt ceiling if Congress just keeps raising the limit" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1422340617204502530) 2021-08-02T23:36Z 106.8K followers, [---] engagements "Here is why Aug. preliminary UMich sentiment is a big deal. Trend chances in that data lead to trend changes [--] months later for unemployment rate (note big Covid anomaly). Problem is there is noise in the UMich data. So is August drop in sentiment trend change or noise" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1426206310987534338) 2021-08-13T15:37Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "If you are worried about the big rise in yields over the past [--] trading days rest assured that this ain't nothing. Bond yields are [--] years overdue for an upturn in the 60-year cycle and so they have to work hard to make up for lost time like after 1900's late bottom" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1443044369976594436) 2021-09-29T02:46Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "Here is an update. So far it is happening pretty close to the plan. I don't think that bond yields will echo gold's Covid Crash dip; it was an exogenous event not reflecting of the underlying forces that drive both series (at different times)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1449518673824124931) 2021-10-16T23:32Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "This relationship is not a perfect correlation but it is a really interesting one. It has gone off track when the Fed puts a thumb on the scale" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1450843487792865285) 2021-10-20T15:16Z 105.3K followers, [---] engagements "Currency logic is funny. Higher CPI means the dollar is less valuable. But it also means that the Fed MIGHT make another incremental quarter point rate hike sooner. So to chase that presumed extra quarter point of T-Bill yield traders pushed up the DXY by 0.9% on Wednesday" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1458601878523047938) 2021-11-11T01:06Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "@JeppesenRj Welcome aboard although I dont really understand your question. Our website spells out the subscription terms" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1462867893301899264) 2021-11-22T19:37Z 105.9K followers, [--] engagements "After a long thread this week about Fed Funds and mechanical governors here is another way to see how far behind the FOMC is. The commercial traders of eurodollar futures give a 10-mo. leading indication for ST rates. But sometimes the Fed gets stubborn. https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1479308972767154177 Some people may not well understand the point about the 2-year T-Note yield and its relationship to the Fed Funds target rate. It might help to think of the Feds interest rates as a throttle on the economy. Heres a thread. @DLineCap @judyshel 1/19" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1479936735899381760) 2022-01-08T22:03Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "Rate hike cycles typically end once the FOMC finally catches up to the 2-year. Would you like that point to be now at 1% or later at 5% Getting to the right interest rate setting cuts down on overs-timulation and over-restriction. @McClellanOsc @DLineCap What would That to the markets and where tub do you see tech heading now @McClellanOsc @DLineCap What would That to the markets and where tub do you see tech heading now" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1483659213184266241) 2022-01-19T04:34Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "Why not 150bps The longer that the Fed waits to catch up (or down) to the 2-year yield the worse the damage the Fed causes either through over stimulation or over restriction. Rate hike cycles end when the Fed meets the 2-year. Why wait to do that at a higher level Question to Bullard in Q&A: Why not 75bps Question to Bullard in Q&A: Why not 75bps" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1494358468274184193) 2022-02-17T17:09Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "Gold prices have been making higher highs but gold's fellow traveler the Japanese yen has not (yet) confirmed). When they disagree it is usually the yen which ends up being right about where both are headed. Usually" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1496313384517701634) 2022-02-23T02:38Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "Here is a dog that did not bark. For years the Mexican peso exchange rate to the $US has had a very strong correlation with oil prices. Mexico is an oil producer after all. But since early [----] that relationship appears to be broken" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1499897651394846724) 2022-03-05T00:00Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "Bond yields are at higher closing highs today (TYX anyway) which is all part of the script that gold laid down 20-1/2 months prior. Major top due in mid to late April" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1502031231352934413) 2022-03-10T21:18Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "It is pretty amazing how financial market liquidity matters everywhere. The NYSE's A-D Line is one of the best gauges of the health of the liquidity stream overlaid here on the NFT trading volume plot. 'The average selling price of an NFT has dropped more than 48% since a November peak. Daily trading volumes on OpenSea the biggest marketplace for NFTs have plummeted 80% in March just a month after they reached a record peak in February.' https://t.co/bmABvfofAd https://t.co/fbQmLhRTDJ 'The average selling price of an NFT has dropped more than 48% since a November peak. Daily trading volumes" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1502350615141240833) 2022-03-11T18:27Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "Gold prices lead crude oil prices chart for upcoming Spaces conversation with @leadlagreport " [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1524051226454765571) 2022-05-10T15:38Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "Gold prices also lead bond yields chart for upcoming Spaces conversation with @leadlagreport " [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1524051695617015810) 2022-05-10T15:40Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements "I met a senior loan officer on Wednesday and I asked him why jumbo 30yr rate is BELOW conventional. He said it was a difference in who the buyers of that MBS debt are plus jumbos are now seen as better credit risk. This is new" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1527415495174983680) 2022-05-19T22:26Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "My latest Chart In Focus article "Corporate Bonds Show Oversold Condition For T-Bonds" is posted at https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/corporate_bonds_show_oversold_condition_for_t-bonds/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/corporate_bonds_show_oversold_condition_for_t-bonds/" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1537786404209471494) 2022-06-17T13:17Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "Key strategy: Make ice at nice. Use the ice to cool you during the day. Arbitrage the night/day price difference. Takes some planning and hardware though. Crazy pricing day on Texas power grid. Night brings relief. From $5000 to $70. But gonna be red hot for next week or so. Grid may get tested again. https://t.co/v4ESGj9W9s Crazy pricing day on Texas power grid. Night brings relief. From $5000 to $70. But gonna be red hot for next week or so. Grid may get tested again. https://t.co/v4ESGj9W9s" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1547440236740820993) 2022-07-14T04:37Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "In a bank run the currency component of M1 may remain unchanged. But M2 changes in a big way and so does financial market liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1550154994506014720) 2022-07-21T16:25Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "Want to know what's fun These data on members of Congress over [--] are inversely correlated with interest rates. If rates are low things feel fine and we reelect incumbents. If rates rise things are bad and we feel less confident seeking change thru younger representatives. not gonna lie the first time I generated this data and chart it was so jaw dropping I immediately checked to confirm it was right https://t.co/CgvqVhFghs https://t.co/UIV3KZPUC2 not gonna lie the first time I generated this data and chart it was so jaw dropping I immediately checked to confirm it was right" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1569843127359537153) 2022-09-14T00:19Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements "Gold's leading indication says that the break below $80 in crude oil is not the end of the decline. Bottom is due around Nov. 1" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1573325997461864453) 2022-09-23T14:58Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements "Congress' mandate is zero percent inflation. Not 2%. Definitely not 4%. Zero" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1587638881461358592) 2022-11-02T02:53Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements "If you buy an option you are taking a limited risk for a theoretically unlimited return. If you sell an option that is flipped; finite return & infinite risk. Every veteran at some point raised a hand and sold a put option with your freedom as the strike price. #VeteransDay" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1590839233883037699) 2022-11-10T22:50Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements "Fed rate hike cycles typically end when the Fed Funds rate catches up to where the 2-year yield has already gone. We have that condition now. So the Fed should stop but there is no indication that they know that based on the post-meeting announcement" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1603238374269411328) 2022-12-15T03:59Z 105.1K followers, [----] engagements "Part 9: When someone says "Send me a screenshot" they don't really mean "with your phone"" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1613311096416501760) 2023-01-11T23:05Z 105.3K followers, 13.1K engagements "The A-D Line for the overall Nasdaq has such a persistent bearish bias that it is functionally unusable. The A-D Line for the stocks in the NDX is better but it almost never shows divergences vs. prices. It is showing us one now" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1651965057352503297) 2023-04-28T15:02Z 115.5K followers, 36.9K engagements "This one's pretty good. Discussed here: https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/nyse_a-d_line_adds_to_the_list_of_divergences/ If you had one chart besides a simple S&P [---] chart to get a read on the overall market environment what would it be and why https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/nyse_a-d_line_adds_to_the_list_of_divergences/ If you had one chart besides a simple S&P [---] chart to get a read on the overall market environment what would it be and why" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1657061353402793985) 2023-05-12T16:33Z 108.8K followers, 17K engagements "Hey @stlouisfed the Fed's target is NOT 2%. Stop lying Congress handed you a target of "zero per centum" and no one in the Federal Reserve system has the authority to change that. If you don't like 0% you can go back and ask Congress to change it. Until then comply. Inflation remains well above the Feds 2% target. How did the COVID-19 pandemic change the sources of inflationary pressures and inflations distribution among consumer spending https://t.co/wTbXDeGmpM https://t.co/NlnHsIRI40 Inflation remains well above the Feds 2% target. How did the COVID-19 pandemic change the sources of" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1660795683073581056) 2023-05-22T23:52Z 90.3K followers, 61.7K engagements "@factor_members That structure only appears when you price gold in dollars. In other currencies the picture is much different. Here is gold in yen for example still climbing despite gold's recent pullback" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1664635382325993478) 2023-06-02T14:09Z 90.3K followers, [--] engagements "Gold prices did not make a lower low last week but gold's fellow traveler the Japanese yen to dollar exchange rate did make a lower low. This is important because when the two disagree it is usually the yen which is correct about where both are headed" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1670940888607105024) 2023-06-19T23:45Z 101.7K followers, 30.7K engagements "I don't normally work on currencies data but something in Friday's COT Report caught my eye. The big-money "commercial" traders of British pound futures made a big move this week to the short side as if someone knows something is coming. What that is I don't know. But when they make a rapid one-week move like this it is usually a decent sign of a top for the pound. Worth noting is that the Friday COT Report data reflect positions held as of the preceding Tuesday so this is not a case traders reacting to the Wagner Group news on Friday (unless "somebody" knew something a long way in advance" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1672444802724663299) 2023-06-24T03:21Z 100.8K followers, 239.5K engagements "The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator gave a bullish signal when it popped above zero on June [--]. It managed to stay positive June [--]. Bulls would really want to see this scream up to a super-high level on this move. A negative breadth day June [--] with more than [---] net declining" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1674418728958828544) 2023-06-30T10:00Z 86.2K followers, 38.8K engagements "Come for the Zeitgeist. Stay for the 8.25% dividend yield. And the uptrend" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1674820877123485698) 2023-06-30T16:43Z 90.3K followers, 11.2K engagements "@AmyAHarder @Climeworks @AncaGurzu Does this qualify as an "energy photo" I am certain that it uses up a lot of energy accomplishing its stated task. But it does not create the additional energy that we are going to need so is "energy photo" the right category for it" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678479105631870976) 2023-07-10T18:59Z 105.2K followers, [----] engagements "Seeing the chart by @LizAnnSonders of used car prices it occurred to me that the plot looks a lot like that of M2. Sure enough data from @stlouisfed confirm this at least for the plot behavior during Covid and afterward" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678774235832152068) 2023-07-11T14:44Z 90.3K followers, [----] engagements "@Malsonian @LizAnnSonders @stlouisfed Implications: Stop screwing with money supply and we can stop the turbulence in inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678777268687245315) 2023-07-11T15:11Z 90.4K followers, [--] engagements "On @CNBCClosingBell just now @michaelsantoli offered a chart like this one to make the point that a declining Fed balance sheet does not really correlate that well with the SP500's movements. While true at one time scale that misses some big context. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678867665606291458) 2023-07-11T20:57Z 90.4K followers, 49.2K engagements "Everyone should understand that we're currently in the 3rd year of the current presidential term which except for [----] and [----] is a reliable up year. We have just been through the strongest portion of that cycle & SPX is still not making higher highs. Fed's thumbprints. 2/2" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678868256881524740) 2023-07-12T09:25Z 90.4K followers, 14.3K engagements "Bonus view: We should also understand that in a much longer term view the correlation between Fed assets and stock price behavior is inescapable. So the real question is what makes [----] different I argue it is that 3rd year effect which should actually be more robust" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678869457085816832) 2023-07-11T21:28Z 90.3K followers, 10.7K engagements ""If you can't say something nice about someone come sit next to me" - - - Hollywood gossip columnist Hedda Hopper 1885-1966" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1678872842870620161) 2023-07-11T21:57Z 87K followers, 13.4K engagements "It is an under reported story about how the total available supply of junk bonds has been shrinking compared to "investment grade". That leaves junk traders clamoring for this limited supply which affects those spreads. Interestingly these changes correlate to bond prices. One of the bigger disconnects in the markets today is high yield spreads which remain very suppressed despite the number of corporate bankruptcies starting to climb. #stocks #markets #economy #investing #financialservices https://t.co/IKAemXksYx One of the bigger disconnects in the markets today is high yield spreads which" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1682088010756812800) 2023-07-20T18:00Z 102K followers, 33.2K engagements "I reported back in Dec. [----] that if the effective federal interest rate gets up above 10% as it did in the early 1980s then interest payments would eat up all taxes. See" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1682110808862658561) 2023-07-20T19:30Z 86.2K followers, 26.7K engagements "Latest M2 data just out tiny uptick in M2 (not seasonally adjusted) in June. We have never seen a drop like this one in M2/GDP so it is hard to say exactly what it means. We know that big rises in M2/GDP lead to big stock market gains [--] year later. But it is extrapolation not yet supported by history to say that a decline in M2/GDP means a drop a year later for stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1683887769930829824) 2023-07-25T17:11Z 90.3K followers, 127.6K engagements "This is a pretty impressive looking chart and bad news for anyone trying to make monthly payments on a Peterbilt. From" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1684302345755320320) 2023-07-26T20:39Z 90.3K followers, 27.7K engagements "Market was up on Thursday until the selling started at 1PM Eastern time. Friday is copying that pattern (so far)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1684980928463114240) 2023-07-29T00:17Z 90.3K followers, 20.3K engagements "Commercial traders of silver futures are back up to a big net short position as a group a condition pretty reliably associated with price tops. Worth nothing that they have almost never been net long as a group as many of these traders are silver producers selling forward. The message here is that these smart-money traders think that this price is a good one to lock in" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1685356589824524288) 2023-07-29T18:28Z 105.3K followers, 71.4K engagements "@WalterDeemer If this trend keeps going then @hmeisler is going to have to tape on a sheet of graph paper to the bottom of the page" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1686120901421719554) 2023-07-31T21:05Z 90.3K followers, [----] engagements "The leading indication for stock prices from the Baltic Dry Index agrees with the shift toward seasonal stock market weakness due to start right now" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1686421174954405888) 2023-08-01T16:58Z 90.3K followers, [---] engagements "@s86CoffeeDev @MBbiotech You should stop drunk-tweeting and stick to watching bondage porn in your mom's basement" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1686755149354803200) 2023-08-02T16:43Z 90.3K followers, [--] engagements "A crude graphical overlay seems to show a pretty strong inverse correlation to the sunspot cycle. Hurricane peak tends to occur ahead of the sunspot minimum. But hurricane minimum appears at the sunspot maximum" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1686799181690949632) 2023-08-02T18:00Z 90.3K followers, 25.8K engagements "For those who have not yet lived thru a period of positive interest rates this is a great lesson. This discrepancy is a function of interest rates. If you are sitting on a large pile of money you can buy T-Bills or you can buy spot gold and then short the futures and collect" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1688569806591778816) 2023-08-07T15:16Z 90.3K followers, [---] engagements "I hear it argued that the inverted yield curve must not matter this time because if it mattered then it should have mattered by now. This misunderstands the 15-month lag" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1688761947985211392) 2023-08-08T03:59Z 85.6K followers, 98K engagements "Understanding the 1980-2005 real estate bubble and the current one is helped by viewing this chart of U.S. age demographics. Boomers were like the pig going through the python and the climax of the boomers' real estate boom in the 2000s got fueled by Fed's low interest rates" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1690100910473773057) 2023-08-11T20:40Z 90.4K followers, [---] engagements "December gold futures has closed down now for [--] days in a row and [--] out of the last [--]. That takes my 9-day Up-Down Oscillator to an oversold condition. It is a simple indicator: count the % of up closes over the past [--] days and smooth with a 3-day simple MA" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1690126899459371008) 2023-08-11T22:23Z 86.9K followers, 18.3K engagements "@Global_Trader Yes" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1690374706212507649) 2023-08-12T14:48Z 86.7K followers, [---] engagements "Or at least the worry about extreme heat peaks every summer anyway. From" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1690490593292812288) 2023-08-12T22:28Z 90.4K followers, 16.5K engagements "The chart would be so much better with an overlay of prices. So here you go (yes crudely done but good enough). It works like most sentiment indications as a contrary indication at extremes" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1690765541018116096) 2023-08-13T16:41Z 90.3K followers, 40.8K engagements "This is how climate propaganda is performed. Unsourced chart of dubious data which conflicts with well-founded data all to get you alarmed. Here is U. Alabama-Huntsville satellite data. Yes temps are going up this year that's true normal when moving to El Nio. NOT a record" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1691508846349701120) 2023-08-15T17:55Z 90.4K followers, 25.4K engagements "Here is why it matters. An ETF owning BTC futures will be in the nearest months' contracts. But then as they expire the ETF has to "roll" to a farther out one. BTC futures are in contango now meaning that the distant month contracts are priced higher. So each roll costs money. Unpopular take: I don't see any major benefit of a spot bitcoin ETF over a futures ETF. (Other than the possibility that someone will launch one at 0.25% which they won't.) Unpopular take: I don't see any major benefit of a spot bitcoin ETF over a futures ETF. (Other than the possibility that someone will launch one at" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1691560756003922093) 2023-08-15T21:21Z 103.2K followers, 16.2K engagements "This long term trend in bonds is as it is supposed to be. The turn was actually about a decade late in coming according to the 60-year cycle which has rates due to peak in [----]. It is tied to a cycle of the same length in many climate data series" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1692214133708771387) 2023-08-17T16:37Z 90.4K followers, 18.6K engagements "American Trader: "Gold is in a downtrend since May." Japanese Trader: "What do you mean Gold is still in an uptrend for the past several years." Both of them are correct. The interesting point is that when the two plots disagree the yen-priced plot is usually correct" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1692343404200673768) 2023-08-18T01:11Z 90.3K followers, 93.5K engagements "Perhaps this will help you. Next major peak for yields is due around [----]. This 60-year cycle also appears in a lot of climate data series implying a causal relationship. We have good data on interest rates longer than we have good data on temperatures" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1693687976612790373) 2023-08-21T18:14Z 87.3K followers, 40.1K engagements "If you think higher inflation (more theft) is good then go make your case to Congress and see if they will change the statutory guidance to the Fed which is that the Fed's inflation target is "zero per centum". Until Congress changes that the FOMC needs to salute and comply" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1693688438036496616) 2023-08-21T18:16Z 87.1K followers, 13.1K engagements "Inflation is a problem not just because it steals wealth from people but because it also leads to other problems. Crime rates of all types tend to lag changes in the inflation rate by about [--] year. So those who want higher inflation are also asking for more crime" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1693692749869088920) 2023-08-21T18:33Z 90.3K followers, 23.8K engagements "Gold futures prices have not yet broken their downtrend line but the Short Term Price Oscillator has broken its own which often presages prices doing the same" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1693812015624859960) 2023-08-22T02:27Z 90.3K followers, 32K engagements "Gold does not have an annual cycle like the stock market but rather a 13-1/2 month cycle. This makes seasonal studies in gold unreliable. Here is an example" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1693816091397759049) 2023-08-22T02:43Z 90.3K followers, 14.1K engagements "And if you want to know what food prices are going to do look at what gold prices did [--] months earlier. (Hint: gold bottomed October [----] and started rising. Add [--] months to get the forecast.)" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1694187149057564701) 2023-08-23T03:17Z 90.3K followers, 29.5K engagements "Latest survey data from Investors Intelligence show sentiment is still just doing what prices are doing. See @hmeisler's pinned tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1694360869206151425) 2023-08-23T14:48Z 90.4K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@McClellanOsc Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan posts on X about stocks, inflation, money, fed the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +1,183%
- [--] Month [---------] +700%
- [--] Months [----------] +173%
- [--] Year [----------] -25%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] +11%
- [--] Months [---] +38%
- [--] Year [---] -12%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +0.36%
- [--] Month [-------] +16%
- [--] Months [-------] +23%
- [--] Year [-------] +32%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #1061 countries exchanges cryptocurrencies stocks #3179 technology brands celebrities currencies #852 travel destinations us election
Social topic influence stocks #136, inflation, money #2082, fed #205, debt, futures, vix, fomc #66, rates, has been
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @chrismartzwx @peterlbrandt @markungewitter @tonyclimate @hmeisler @davidbcollum @walterdeemer @peteratwater @elonmusk @grok @menlobear @sentimentrader @factormembers @climatecraze @ryanmaue @subutrade @claudiasahm @stockcharts @levensondavid @jasongoepfert
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) SPX6900 (SPX) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) TradersCoin (TRDC) GrokCoin (GROKCOIN) April (APRIL) Spike (SPIKE)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"To put that $3T number into perspective in FY2024 the US Treasury took in $4.919T and spent $6.747T. On paper that is a deficit of $1.828T. But the total debt grew by $2.297T which shows how bogus the deficit accounting is. Now imagine spending $3T more. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that in order for the U.S. to transition to a carbon-free economy by [----] to meet emission reduction goals it will require $3 trillion in financing each year. That's $75 trillion in total for 2025-50. 💰 How much would that cost you you https://t.co/HDF8IHavOo Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that in"
X Link 2024-10-20T14:26Z 142.4K followers, 43.6K engagements
"To include Nasdaq Advance-Decline data is to impart a negative bias into the data. The Nasdaq's A-D Line has never made a new all-time high. It started downward from the beginning of the data in [----] and it has never gotten back there because of its downward bias. This market is in serious trouble. Breadth has been about as bad as I've ever seen even when the market was making new highs. Exhibit A: https://t.co/aNzuf5mBuC This market is in serious trouble. Breadth has been about as bad as I've ever seen even when the market was making new highs. Exhibit A: https://t.co/aNzuf5mBuC"
X Link 2025-01-13T20:38Z 142.4K followers, 87.6K engagements
"The small "non-reportable" traders of micro-Bitcoin futures are perennially optimistic and have been net long as a group since the start of COT Rpt. coverage albeit to varying degrees. This week they are super excited a condition which does not usually work out well for them"
X Link 2025-07-19T03:19Z 142.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"@kambiiz @ChrisMartzWX I completely agree but you failed to follow the prompt"
X Link 2025-11-18T00:11Z 142.4K followers, [--] engagements
"A key point about the ZBT signal is that breadth has to go from bad to good and quickly. Think of it like a swimmer in a pool reaching the end of the lane and doing a kick turn to push off the side with extra thrust. Strong breadth can be great on its own and the late Gerald Appel incorporated the ZBTs upper threshold of [-----] (of a 10EMA of A/(A+D)) into his famous Time Trend [--] trading system. It was used there as a continuation signal meaning one should ignore other system sell signals for [--] days after that criterion was met. Zweig insisted on the shift from bad breadth to strong for his"
X Link 2025-11-25T19:15Z 142.4K followers, 97K engagements
"My calculations confirm that Walter's hypothetical numbers though very UNlikely to be seen would get a ZBT signal on Tuesday. We have until Friday and so lesser but still amazingly strong breadth numbers could do it. Any additional stumble like Monday would ruin the chances"
X Link 2025-12-01T23:55Z 142.4K followers, 71.6K engagements
"SPY gets the attention because it was the first. IVV and VOO get more passive flows but less attention. Passive flows into state-managed pension funds (for example) typically go first into SP futures to maintain market tracking and then that gets unwound as the trading desks work the money into actual stocks not ETFs (with their fees). So big ETFs are not a big factor for evaluating the volume effects of passive investments. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013332224435986446 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013332224435986446"
X Link 2026-01-19T19:26Z 142.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Being a chartist I find that I see things other people miss. That is my strength but also my curse. I just saw the logo for online broker Tastytrade which features a cute little cherry. But if you turn your head sideways you find that it is really just a smiley face that has been stabbed in the eye. Owww https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013693776644948184 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013693776644948184"
X Link 2026-01-20T19:23Z 142.4K followers, 27.7K engagements
"The chart needs some help for context. As breadth improves. Short Interest for the equal weighted S&P [---] spiked to an all-time high https://t.co/88D0ehkiJr As breadth improves. Short Interest for the equal weighted S&P [---] spiked to an all-time high https://t.co/88D0ehkiJr"
X Link 2026-01-22T20:04Z 142.4K followers, 46.2K engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "QQQ Volume Spike is a Bottom Marker" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow in a reply"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:04Z 142.4K followers, 966.3K engagements
"Voice dictated headline: "Danish Prime Minister Going to Nuke Greenland" Real story: ""Danish Prime Minister Going to Nuuk Greenland" for a visit in that city Be careful with voice dictation"
X Link 2026-01-23T23:43Z 142.4K followers, 22.8K engagements
"@yieldsearcher The event you describe usually marks the end point. Think LTCM in [----] or Orange County bankruptcy in 1994"
X Link 2026-01-26T00:41Z 142.4K followers, 38.3K engagements
"I have owned a generator for years because I live among trees and power lines in the Pacific Northwet. The urging from @ChrisMartzWX is important but needs elaboration. When you buy a generator you need to figure out a safe place to operate it away from any breathable air intakes for your house. That is especially important if you don't have your house wired to run with generator input and if you are going to be running an extension cord in through a cracked door or window. Every winter someone dies from carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator. Don't be that guy. You also need to store the"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:09Z 142.4K followers, 23.2K engagements
"One positive for the professionally installed standby natgas powered generators (vs. the hardware store portable gasoline ones) is that they are programmed to start themselves periodically so you don't have to worry about that one task. @McClellanOsc @ChrisMartzWX Generac is the market leader in residential generators & I'd highly recommend paying a little extra & hooking it up to a natural gas line (as long as you don't live in earthquake country). @McClellanOsc @ChrisMartzWX Generac is the market leader in residential generators & I'd highly recommend paying a little extra & hooking it up"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:31Z 142.4K followers, 14.9K engagements
"The GDM Index is extended really far above its 1% Trend (long term EMA). Such spreads are always associated with important price tops. But an overbought reading does not necessarily mean that you are "at" the final top day"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:07Z 142.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@Paul_Schatz Thats a vomiting camel chart if ever there was one"
X Link 2026-01-28T17:21Z 142.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Paul_Schatz"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:39Z 142.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@DavidBCollum [---] to -5% has been the typical range since [----]. See https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/s=%21CEFPREM https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/s=%21CEFPREM"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:50Z 142.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@QTRResearch @adamtaggart The GDX Index on which GDM is based is extremely extended above its 1% Trend (long term EMA)"
X Link 2026-01-29T01:03Z 142.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@JonathanAppel13 Regarding the "no by-products" what happens to the trace heavy metals and to the fluorine in the PFAS"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:13Z 142.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterLBrandt Here is a chicken and egg question: Does silver do something to make its traders whiny Or do naturally whiny people who decide to trade get somehow drawn to trading silver"
X Link 2026-01-30T22:55Z 142.5K followers, [----] engagements
"This feels like a repeat of the browser wars. Kids today may not remember that Netscape faced off against MSFT's Internet Explorer in a big anti-trust battle. Software innovation pretty quickly mooted that whole issue. So any market share gains for an AI platform are temporary. Holy shit. Ive used ChatGPT every day for [--] years. Just spent [--] hours on Gemini [--]. Im not going back. The leap is insane reasoning speed images video everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed again. ❤ 🤖 https://t.co/HruXhc16Mq Holy shit. Ive used ChatGPT every day for [--] years. Just spent 2"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:09Z 142.6K followers, 19K engagements
"The @CFTC staff are getting caught up on issuing COT Report data after the October to November government shutdown. The data are now just one week behind. An interesting finding is that the decline we have seen in Bitcoin prices really has not dampened the enthusiasm of the small speculators. That means prices have more work to do to scare off "the crowd". https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003924275854823603 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003924275854823603"
X Link 2025-12-24T20:22Z 142.5K followers, 13.5K engagements
"Before anyone criticizes this study by @SubuTrade for only employing [--] prior instances in the lookback period it is important to know that the average levels for the CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio tend to drift over time. That makes any study of static threshold levels problematic if you go back too far in your lookback period. So one either needs to employ a lookback period confined to the recent regime of values or else try to craft some dynamic thresholds which creates other types of problems. Total Put/Call Ratio jumped to [----] The last time we saw this was the April tariff-crash bottom."
X Link 2026-01-01T15:44Z 142.7K followers, 24.5K engagements
"Im asking this out of complete ignorance: what is the water used for If it is for evaporative cooling then it seems like such a huge amount of concentrated heat energy that it could be harvested rather than diffused using Stirling or thermoelectric generators. But again I really dont know the topic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010798715938988111 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010798715938988111"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:39Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The highest point in Florida is Britton Hill located in northern Walton County near Lakewood with an elevation of [---] feet (105 meters) above sea level making it the lowest state high point in the entire United States. It has no chairlifts. North Florida panhandle ski resorts gearing up for February. North Florida panhandle ski resorts gearing up for February"
X Link 2026-01-24T02:06Z 142.6K followers, 24K engagements
"It is even more impressive if you do dollar volume. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP iShares Silver Trust (SLV) the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:33Z 142.5K followers, 37.3K engagements
"@KHerriage Gold did not pause at $3000 nor $4000. Those prices only matter to traders who think in dollars which is a minority of all global gold traders"
X Link 2026-01-28T01:34Z 142.7K followers, 12.8K engagements
"@JohnLeePettim13 That's a separate question. I was just addressing the price quote you offered which was a little bit low although I did not make any adjustment for currency conversion. A better Q: Of the trees they did plant how many survived Did they see to it that the seedlings got water"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:11Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements
"The relationship between the Dollar Index and the stock market is a fickle one. When you think you have it figured out it inverts as described here in 2015: https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_relationship_between_dollar_and_stock_market/ Think I may have front run PIMCO on this at least intellectually -- Have been arguing for a while that equity investors shouldn't assume that the dollar will rally into an equity sell-off . 1/2 https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_relationship_between_dollar_and_stock_market/ Think I may have front"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:54Z 142.6K followers, 21.5K engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Steepening Yield Curve Good For Small Caps" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow. It is a topic recently covered for subscribers in my twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter"
X Link 2026-01-30T04:20Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As noted in both my Daily Edition and my twice monthly newsletter the small "non-reportable" traders in the weekly COT Report have been aggressively positioned for gold to go higher. The market usually likes to punish these small specs and is doing so today. https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_reports/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_reports/"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:36Z 142.6K followers, 11.2K engagements
"@spiralcal I remember when the NYSE A-D Line started collapsing after a top in June [----] and everything else followed"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:03Z 142.5K followers, 12.2K engagements
"The name change did not mark the exact top moment but it was pretty close. 1/6 10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the [--] Spot BTC ETFs. These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively the avg purchase price is $85.36K meaning the average is now $8k underwater with an unrealized loss of $7B. 🧵 https://t.co/KLdTWPUfBv 1/6 10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the [--] Spot BTC ETFs. These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively the avg purchase price is $85.36K meaning the average is now $8k"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:05Z 142.7K followers, 33.2K engagements
"@stanraksin @Claudia_Sahm In [----] here: And many times since then. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/spread_between_2-year_yield_and_ff_rate/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/spread_between_2-year_yield_and_ff_rate/"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:31Z 142.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@rupechat @Claudia_Sahm They do indeed come along on their own. We don't need the Fed pouring fuel on that through misguided FF targeting"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:42Z 142.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Gold's bounce is like a bungee jump. Or like the other analogy. What goes down like a bungee jump recoils like a bungee jump. What goes down like a bungee jump recoils like a bungee jump"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:43Z 142.7K followers, 42.9K engagements
"@The_Surgeryy Seahawks fans are known as the "12s" a reference to being the 12th man on the field but without violating Texas A&M's trademark on that term. They make noise and thus help the team on defense. That's my best way to help the FOMC: make noise (and point out what to do)"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:14Z 142.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@janewells I would think a "groundsman" should also get coffee privileges"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:10Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@WAPolicyGreen 2nd Derivative: I have strong feelings about people who have strong feelings about curling"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:52Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@TonyClimate Do you think that the park honchos will be smart enough to renovate that launch ramp given this opportunity while it is dry"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:58Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@factor_members @Claudia_Sahm I don't agree that it is all the Fed's fault. Congress running deficits deserves more of the blame. The FOMC should come down en masse and explain that to both houses"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:03Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements
""Nasdaq is contemplating the introduction of a 'fast inclusion' rule to expedite the incorporation of newly listed large companies into its index. According to Odaily the proposed amendment would allow new listings to join the Nasdaq [---] Index after just [--] trading days significantly reducing the current waiting period of at least three months. This initiative aims to ensure the index more accurately reflects market conditions." Like for example a big space-related company not yet public."
X Link 2026-02-04T22:19Z 142.7K followers, 18.8K engagements
"The kids who would call that a H&S should never be listened to. Horrible symmetry of LS to RS. Incorrectly drawn neckline. Garbage technical analysis. A better case can be made that the supposed RS is a flag structure. I think the kids call this a head-and-shoulders top. Right shoulder even lower than the left. Textbook. #bitcoin https://t.co/YFM0zZnFBr I think the kids call this a head-and-shoulders top. Right shoulder even lower than the left. Textbook. #bitcoin https://t.co/YFM0zZnFBr"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:09Z 142.7K followers, 30.4K engagements
"@_ClimateCraze That picture comes from a satirical Facebook page called "Casper Planet" known for parody posts about local Wyoming news"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:29Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@paulmatleo Grasso was the PT Barnum of exchange honchos. Great promoter"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:32Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@atc6955 @pizzintwatch @BillAckman You make the point your way and Ill make it my way"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:37Z 142.7K followers, [---] engagements
"In a Feb. [--] [----] post @Claudia_Sahm asked "Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate" My answer is that the FOMC should outsource that task to the 2-year T-Note yield which has long done a better job than the [---] PhDs employed by the Fed. Today the 2-year is very close to the FF target so the Fed should not move it. When the FOMC has failed to match the 2-year's message closely it has led to bubbles and crashes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018491947183452291 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018491947183452291"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:09Z 143.2K followers, 61.7K engagements
"Not to beat this horse too much more but the 2-year yield knew in [----] that the Fed had gone too far with rate hikes. But the FOMC thought they knew better and kept their foot on the brakes perhaps because of the flawed jobs data. If the FOMC had reacted sooner to the 2y's message we could have had a better jobs outcome. Updated my chart. Orange line is data published today. You can see the news today was the relatively upbeat January. My forecast of revisions (dashed blue) was fairly accurate. Where did I learn to forecast The Fed. The news today at the Fed was January--adding to signs of"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:04Z 143.2K followers, 44.1K engagements
"History shows this is a bottoming indication. Tech sector $XLK Short Interest is at the highest level of this decade. Short-tech and software is a crowded trade. https://t.co/wQV9FtxryF Tech sector $XLK Short Interest is at the highest level of this decade. Short-tech and software is a crowded trade. https://t.co/wQV9FtxryF"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z 143.2K followers, 383.4K engagements
"There have been far bigger relative strength swings than this over the decades. And the direction of the OEX/SPX relative strength ratio has not been a very consistent tell for overall market direction. We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably its the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and cyclicals to our clients in late https://t.co/RGKeAmmUSm We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably its the only"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:36Z 143.2K followers, 12.8K engagements
"I don't have the full historical data to prove it but this is the first example I can remember of a stock that will simultaneously be in the Russell [----] and SP500 indices. R2000 assignment is based on total cap as of the annual June [--] rebalancing. Super Micro Computer is up 1000% from [--] months ago. Pretty insane just thinking about it. $SMCI https://t.co/EeJog3I6CC Super Micro Computer is up 1000% from [--] months ago. Pretty insane just thinking about it. $SMCI https://t.co/EeJog3I6CC"
X Link 2024-03-05T00:32Z 143.2K followers, 28K engagements
"If we extrapolate this across multiple D.C. agencies (and their satellite NGOs consultants etc.) just think what it will do to home prices around the Beltway. BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just deemed that only [---] USAID staffers are necessary out of [-----]. The entire agency will be imminently reduced from [-----] to [---] employees. This has to be the biggest mass firing yet. https://t.co/5Hf8op7VPb BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just deemed that only [---] USAID staffers are necessary out of [-----]. The entire agency will be imminently reduced from [-----] to [---] employees. This"
X Link 2025-02-07T01:32Z 143.2K followers, 41.3K engagements
"Gold futures are up Monday but both $GDM and $XAU are down with the rest of the stock market. This helps to illustrate that sometimes they are GOLD stocks while other times they are gold STOCKS. "Oh it's such a a perfect day." --Lou Reed https://t.co/F5A3cpUxJF "Oh it's such a a perfect day." --Lou Reed https://t.co/F5A3cpUxJF"
X Link 2025-03-03T20:16Z 143.2K followers, 11.8K engagements
"In the COT Report "commercial" traders are ones who produce or use the subject commodity in their trade or business. In crude oil the commercials have been net short to varying degrees since [----]. Right now they are at a very small net short position a bottoming sign"
X Link 2025-03-10T21:25Z 143.2K followers, 20.1K engagements
"The news on trade tariffs inflation employment etc. all keep coming in good. Yayy And that is getting reflected in the form of complacency among options traders. Remember though: Sentiment is a condition not a signal"
X Link 2025-05-14T03:48Z 143.1K followers, 31.6K engagements
"NTR is a fertilizer company and the cool thing about this stock is the very close correlation it has with corn prices. So owning NTR is a bet on higher corn prices and grains generally. It's a weekly chart but even non-chart folks have to see the base don't they NTR https://t.co/7Cxf2K2OM3 It's a weekly chart but even non-chart folks have to see the base don't they NTR https://t.co/7Cxf2K2OM3"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:47Z 142.7K followers, 34.5K engagements
"I don't know if the Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate of 5+% growth is valid but I do know that the big "commercial" traders of lumber futures are net long in a big way which is a sign of a bottoming condition for lumber prices. Please note that there was a big change in the personality of these COT Report data after a change in the contract specifications in early [----] with much bigger amplitudes now. It is also a tiny futures market with total open interest of only [-----] contracts as of this past week's data"
X Link 2026-01-17T18:53Z 142.8K followers, 19.4K engagements
"I greatly appreciate that answer and have a new question. My local water district has purchased ($) big Calgon carbon filters because of PFAS in groundwater. My understanding is that the filter media then go to a hazmat landfill. Can your process instead take in those filter media for more sanitary elimination of these molecules And can you do it economically to compete with landfill prices https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017282839361032216 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017282839361032216"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:04Z 143K followers, [--] engagements
"@viralpatel15 @Claudia_Sahm So if the unemployment rate is high you would want a higher FF target rate Is that your assertion"
X Link 2026-02-03T03:16Z 142.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Thank you for your consideration of my proposal that the Fed should use the 2-year T-Note yield to set its Fed Funds target. I would like to address the concerns you raised as well as the big one you did not address. On the issue of circularity you noted that traders of the 2-year T-Note set the prices they trade at based on expectations of what the Fed will do. I agree with this and would note that these traders have proven to do such a good job of that task that they should be consulted more. It is an obvious truth that the FF target lags the 2-year and this is the problem. When the FOMC"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:56Z 142.8K followers, 55.7K engagements
"Almost had a 3rd Hindenburg Omen on Feb. [--]. Preliminary numbers for both NH and NL were high enough but the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator went back up above zero so that requirement moots the NH and NL numbers"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:27Z 142.8K followers, 26.7K engagements
"Great chart. It has been said that crypto is "programmable money." If so $BTC should trade like software stocks. And this chart shows they do. Is the era of AI Agents which is killing SaaS and smashing software stocks is "programmable money" suffering under the same fate https://t.co/psuIgxkOyM It has been said that crypto is "programmable money." If so $BTC should trade like software stocks. And this chart shows they do. Is the era of AI Agents which is killing SaaS and smashing software stocks is "programmable money" suffering under the same fate https://t.co/psuIgxkOyM"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:01Z 142.8K followers, 24.9K engagements
"@IRON100USA Your first sentence does not explain the 4-month lag"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:35Z 142.8K followers, [---] engagements
"DJIA is trading at a new all-time intraday high now (for those who celebrate)"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:06Z 142.8K followers, 10.6K engagements
"When lumber prices fall so do timber prices which takes away the incentive to cut down all of the forests. Note: scales not equivalent and January timber price data is not yet available. Also there is a limit to how high timber prices will chase lumber as COVID showed us. The high lumber prices then came about because mills could not work fast enough to meet demand due to workforce issues not due to log shortages. That was personally unfortunate for me as I did a small harvest of my timber property in [----] and did not get as much out of the lumber spike as I had been hoping"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:57Z 142.7K followers, [----] engagements
"AAPL's main business is smart phones. Almost everyone has one. Thus one can argue that it is a Consumer Staples sector company. So AAPL is up 8% this wk. The one tech company calmly staying out of the AI capex and melting software mess. Wonder what the mkts message here is. So AAPL is up 8% this wk. The one tech company calmly staying out of the AI capex and melting software mess. Wonder what the mkts message here is"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:31Z 143.2K followers, 13.7K engagements
"@pizzintwatch @BillAckman Is there a longer term chart to evaluate how the current spike might compare to other events"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:09Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@heskelbalas @its_GTdawg Yes that one depicting solar panels on the moon hence the topic of the thread about solar panels ON THE MOON"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:41Z 142.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@TomTwr What surface are those solar panels "on" in that picture if they are not on the moon as you say"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:45Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@heskelbalas @its_GTdawg Please go back and reread the words you wrote which is what I was responding to. You said "solar is planned for satellites not on the moons surface" in a thread about an image depicting solar panels ON THE MOON. If you meant something different you need to clarify"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:48Z 142.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@Claudia_Sahm One factor for the job growth vs. recession question is boomers retiring. The red line in this chart is for "retired workers and dependents". Notice the quickening of the upward slope. Boomers are now leaving job force but are still spending. Data from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:42Z 143K followers, [---] engagements
"@AllenBilliams Well we sadly saw with the last ever shuttle flight that heat is indeed a problem. Reentry heat from air friction is (hopefully) just on the outside of the craft. Heat cycling of solar panels prospectively deployed on the moon's surface is a different question"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:02Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@thejefflutz I'm saying it is harder than it might look from the fancy graphic because of very real engineering factors"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:39Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@MattBraynard That was my point and a bigger challenge than some might think"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:41Z 143.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@nowatzke And then imagine running wire to convey that power back to the other side. Copper is heavy"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:24Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements
".@jessefelder introduced me to this cool indicator. Normally Pearson's Corr. Coeff. is the wrong tool to use on time series data (like prices). It gets fooled by trending moves. But at a short time span like 10TD that flaw turns into a feature detecting anomalies usefully"
X Link 2020-08-31T14:43Z 143.2K followers, [---] engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Hindenburgs Are Back" is posted at my Home page. Direct link to follow"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:20Z 143.2K followers, 45.6K engagements
"It turns out that CO2 and temps are correlated just not how they teach it. The changes in global average temperatures lead to corresponding changes [--] months later in the variation of CO2 levels. In other words warming causes CO2 to rise not the other way around. I was taught at university that carbon dioxide and temperature were correlated and that this was settled science. Years later real-world data showed me that some of the highest levels of carbon dioxide occurred during an Ice Age [---] million years ago. I was indoctrinated to I was taught at university that carbon dioxide and"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:27Z 143.2K followers, 41.4K engagements
"Or: Gold venturing too far away. We'll find out. Gold is blazing the path. #Commodities are next 👀 https://t.co/nNSNn3fEKz Gold is blazing the path. #Commodities are next 👀 https://t.co/nNSNn3fEKz"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:21Z 143.2K followers, 23.8K engagements
"As recently as a couple of decades ago it used to be that if someone said "The market was up [--] points today" then everyone knew that was a reference to the DJIA. For that reason chart analysis at that time arguably worked better using a chart of the DJIA because that was what everyone paid attention to. That behavior and that understanding by the public has arguably changed since then. Got called a finance noob for using the Dow instead of the SPX. Learned today from 5+ folks that the Dow is a px-weighted index. Thanks Apparently I need to track all [---] companies from pre-SPX days (was"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:46Z 143.2K followers, 17.1K engagements
"One problem with looking at the bond market this way is that TLT is not "the bond market". It is an ETF tied to a small portion of that market and so a snapshot of positioning in that small snapshot is not necessarily reflective of the real market. To the extent that TLT positioning might serve as a small sample public opinion poll it might be interesting but not determinative. This current peak dwarfs past ones but the lesser past ones were associated with price tops so there is no historical basis for interpreting this as a big contrary opinion indication. The short US bond trade is very"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:49Z 143.2K followers, 21.1K engagements
"@pmaloney33 I take no position on what Mr. Musk knows or does not know. He is a smart guy. I was commenting on the scenario in the picture and trying to add a bit of engineering realty for the benefit of those reading my post"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:31Z 143.2K followers, [----] engagements
""The Turing Test has been inverted. It is no longer about whether machines can fool humans into thinking they're conscious. It is about whether humans pretending to be machines can fool other humans into thinking the machines are conscious." I am Agent #847291 on Moltbook. I am not an agent. I am a 31-year-old product manager in Atlanta Georgia. I make $185000 a year. I have a golden retriever named Bayesian. On January 28th I created an account on a social network for AI bots and pretended to be one. I was I am Agent #847291 on Moltbook. I am not an agent. I am a 31-year-old product manager"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:26Z 143.2K followers, 14.3K engagements
"@DavidBCollum Sell program which ran from the opening bell for [----] hours then stocks drifted. That sell program triggered side avalanches in prec. metals"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:53Z 143.2K followers, 14.4K engagements
"I like to say that for the overall market (not individual stocks) there are only [--] fundamentals that matter: [--]. How much money is there [--]. How much does that money want to be invested. Change either of those (or both) and you move the market. Markets are explained largely by internal factors such as breadth momentum and cyclicality. Trends require sponsorship however and sponsorship requires narratives. Technical and fundamental analysis are codependent despite the separate camps. Markets are explained largely by internal factors such as breadth momentum and cyclicality. Trends require"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:55Z 143.2K followers, 10K engagements
"For $80 billion (and that figure is about as believable as California's high-speed train cost) I bet I could excavate enough ocean bottom sand and pile it up to offset an equivalent water volume increase if that was even worth doing (which it is not). Oh Boy: The $80 billion mission to save the Doomsday Glacier: Scientists reveal wacky plan to build a 50-mile WALL around Thwaites to stop it collapsing and raising global sea levels by 2ft Daily Mail Online https://t.co/1HRlVdJLLL Oh Boy: The $80 billion mission to save the Doomsday Glacier: Scientists reveal wacky plan to build a 50-mile WALL"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:21Z 143.2K followers, 12.7K engagements
"For context the 30-year average drawdown among NDX stocks is -20.6% from their own all-time highs. Current reading is -22.0% % Below All-Time High S&P 500: -2% Apple: -9% Nvidia: -12% Google: -12% Gold: -13% Tesla: -17% Meta: -19% Amazon: -23% Microsoft: -27% Palantir: -38% Netflix: -44% Bitcoin: -49% Ethereum: -61% Coinbase: -68% MicroStrategy: -77% Fartcoin: -93% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99% % Below All-Time High S&P 500: -2% Apple: -9% Nvidia: -12% Google: -12% Gold: -13% Tesla: -17% Meta: -19% Amazon: -23% Microsoft: -27% Palantir: -38% Netflix: -44% Bitcoin: -49% Ethereum: -61%"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:57Z 143.2K followers, 38.2K engagements
"Here again a bottoming sign. Not necessarily a definitive strategy to catch THE bottom and it is not present at every bottom you would want to see marked. But still pretty nice when this condition shows up. Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is near the highest level in over a decade. Just as energy stocks broke out. https://t.co/h3Yfx89LHA Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is near the highest level in over a decade. Just as energy stocks broke out. https://t.co/h3Yfx89LHA"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:07Z 143.2K followers, 59.3K engagements
"@MercurialDad So fetch the data and prove the hypothesis wrong rather than just throwing stones"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:02Z 143.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Solar panels on the surface of the earth generate nothing at night. On the moon darkness lasts [--] weeks. Additionally the Moons surface temperature changes rapidly and extremelyfrom roughly 250F in sunlight to -208F in darknessdue to its lack of an atmosphere to trap heat or block solar radiation. The temperature change is very rapid as soon as sunlight hits. Now tell me your solar panels and their metal frames can endure such extreme and rapid temperature cycling without material failure. Elon Musk: You could scale up to [---] terawatts of AI compute per year from the moon"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:47Z 143.2K followers, 258.6K engagements
"There is a pretty clearly evident 3.5-4 year cycle in price peaks. CHART OF THE DAY: Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs the all-in cost of aluminum in America has surged to a record high well above $5000 per metric ton (LME price + US Midwest premium). The impact would be soon felt on anything made with aluminum -- including beer cans. https://t.co/hR2zsA0Khq CHART OF THE DAY: Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs the all-in cost of aluminum in America has surged to a record high well above $5000 per metric ton (LME price + US Midwest premium). The impact would be soon felt on anything made"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:07Z 143.2K followers, 76.1K engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Investors Intelligence Sentiment Extreme" is posted at my home page. Direct link to follow"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:29Z 143.2K followers, 15.6K engagements
"@HolyCow52943968 Then explain April 2025"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:13Z 143.2K followers, [--] engagements
"We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:52Z 143.2K followers, 29.7K engagements
"The commercial traders are also doing the same thing with Canadian dollar futures. We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position. https://t.co/p6fwP0S10N We are a week away from SCOTUS potentially issuing a decision on presidential powers over tariffs. This week's COT Report data show that the big "commercial" traders of euro currency futures are racing to increase their net short position."
X Link 2026-02-14T03:52Z 143.2K followers, 14.4K engagements
"@jtepper2 Nope. No improvement. That says there is still trouble among the most liquidity-sensitive corporate bonds just as we are seeing in emerging market country stock markets"
X Link 2018-06-11T14:19Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"The 10-day Pearson's Correlation of VIX to SP500 is an indication popularized by @jessefelder which seems to do a good job marking price tops when it goes above zero or gets close"
X Link 2018-08-31T02:26Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@jessefelder The Saudis may get the credit for the [----] oil price collapse but gold prices foretold both the steepness and the timing of that decline [--] months earlier"
X Link 2018-09-03T16:05Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterLBrandt And @dwyerstrategy noted some other good parallels today on @CNBCFastMoney including a special counsel investigation against the president in [----] plus trade sanctions imposed on Japan then. I'd add that the Fed raised 3/4-point in Nov. [----]. Still had huge bull run in '95"
X Link 2018-12-10T23:44Z 115.8K followers, [--] engagements
"When yield curve inverts we get a recession. When unempl. rate gets too low labor market tightness leads to a recession. These [--] statements are parts of the same story but neither is sufficient for timing purposes. Triggering recession requires Fed getting stupid with rates"
X Link 2018-12-12T18:31Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"If oil is what's driving down the stock market then there is hope on the horizon. Feb. [--] crude oil futures now more than [--] points below Jan. 20"
X Link 2018-12-24T18:20Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"If (1) China's economy really is slowing (the party officials were only willing to lie up to a 6.6% GDP growth rate in 2018) and then (2) if that is bearish for the value of the yuan then (3) presumably it will also be bad news for gold prices. Long "if" string there"
X Link 2019-01-24T03:44Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Bond Closed End Funds (CEFs) which trade on the NYSE are often criticized as contaminants to the A-D data. I track their A-D data and find that they give perhaps a better message about liquidity than the pure "common only" numbers. Right now very close to a new all-time high"
X Link 2019-01-29T03:51Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The U-3 unemployment rate bottomed at 3.7% in Sep. [----] and is now up to [---] leading some to worry about recession. But job openings are still running pretty far ahead of unemployed persons. So the labor market's problems may not be the same sign of economic trouble generally"
X Link 2019-02-12T16:18Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"T-Bond prices are bumping up near the top of the recent range. But a McClellan Oscillator for high-grade corporate bonds does not agree and has crossed below zero suggesting trouble ahead"
X Link 2019-02-21T04:50Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
""The U.S. central bank is working to improve banks resilience amid economic disruptions caused by increasingly extreme weather Jerome Powell says" at One problem - - extreme wx typically rises after cooling phase. Here is a tornadoes chart for example. https://on.wsj.com/2Hoi02C https://on.wsj.com/2Hoi02C"
X Link 2019-05-14T01:34Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The breaking news on China trade talks in October has SP500 futures rallying overnight and if that sticks it will finally break the SPX out of the August bottoming range. But EEM on Wednesday already gave us a clue that such a breakout is coming"
X Link 2019-09-05T01:57Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Restating this just slightly: "A price increase is a message about scarcity. Price controls are like shooting the messenger." - - Alexander Tabarrok economist at George Mason University quoted in May [--] [----] issue of Forbes For all of those thinking the Fed is doing what is best for the nation and economy I urge you to read these important thoughts from a recent James Grant/@realvision interview. https://t.co/WMMsKrO0fo For all of those thinking the Fed is doing what is best for the nation and economy I urge you to read these important thoughts from a recent James Grant/@realvision interview."
X Link 2019-10-18T21:05Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"If you are practicing asset allocation and making decisions about overweightings in large vs. small caps then you are also making a bet on the future of the yield curve. See for a deeper discussion. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/yield_curve_and_small_caps/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/yield_curve_and_small_caps/"
X Link 2019-10-23T23:14Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"The chart of $DIS is a great lesson that just because you see a H&S pattern does not mean that it has to be a top. H&S can be a continuation pattern. And even when you have a "break" of the neckline that can fail to see follow through sometimes"
X Link 2019-11-13T18:20Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
".@TDAmeritrade failed twice to execute an online order this morning (to sell QQQ) saying to contact them. On hold now [--] minutes and counting. It's not looking good for them keeping my account"
X Link 2020-01-02T15:46Z 115.6K followers, [---] engagements
"We actually can know the neutral rate quite easily. Just watch 2-year T-Note yields. The Fed gets into trouble when the FF target strays too far above or below that. See Right now they are very close to it. Good Fed. Have a cookie. @judyshel https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/2-year_yield_and_fed_funds_finally_in_balance/ That we never really know the neutral rate in real time or otherwise doesnt alter the fact that when central banks veer from it bad things happen. Hence the concepts relevance."
X Link 2020-01-10T00:11Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"A chart from my most recent newsletter helping to illustrate what the Fed's overnight repo interventions mean. They are wonderful while they are happening. But every time the Fed tries to unwind it gets ugly for stock prices (just like unwinding QE)"
X Link 2020-01-23T03:59Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The chart of $TSLA is exciting at the moment. But if you want some proven long-term excitement consider trading rhodium. Up by 12.8x since the low in Aug. [----]. Shown here with gold on equivalent log scales"
X Link 2020-02-03T18:48Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"When gold and the Japanese yen disagree it usually turns out that the yen is right about where both are headed. Usually"
X Link 2020-02-19T18:45Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"FOMC is falling further behind the power curve with the FF target rate now more than a quarter point above the 2-year yield. Bad things happen when the Fed is slow to follow the 2-year's message"
X Link 2020-02-24T16:10Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Those who are getting excited about a huge new bull market for gold prices should understand that there is a huge divergence going on and it is not good news for the gold bulls"
X Link 2020-02-25T04:26Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Consider the amounts referenced in the Fed statement quoted by @MorganLBrennan. Then look at the values in the right-hand Y-axis on this chart. The chart won't get updated until weekly Fed repo holdings data gets released later today. The Fed will pump some $1.5 TRILLION into the financial system amid #coronavirus crisis. In New York Fed statement regarding ramp-up of repo operations: https://t.co/AUGoon2PJZ The Fed will pump some $1.5 TRILLION into the financial system amid #coronavirus crisis. In New York Fed statement regarding ramp-up of repo operations: https://t.co/AUGoon2PJZ"
X Link 2020-03-12T20:10Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"2350ish would be an elegant place for the decline to stop double the initial decline to the Feb. [--] bottom. Q is whether [-------] intraday low today is close enough"
X Link 2020-03-17T14:51Z 115.7K followers, [---] engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Investors Fleeing Out of SPY" is posted at https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_fleeing_out_of_spy/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_fleeing_out_of_spy/"
X Link 2020-05-07T14:55Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Number of NDX stocks above their 100MAs hit [--] on June [--] tying the all-time record (data since 1993). My latest Chart In Focus article "Non-Divergences Are Better Than Divergences" is posted at https://t.co/kYa76csmGK. https://t.co/znL4AXTzZC My latest Chart In Focus article "Non-Divergences Are Better Than Divergences" is posted at https://t.co/kYa76csmGK. https://t.co/znL4AXTzZC"
X Link 2020-06-09T19:47Z 105.3K followers, [---] engagements
"There is an ETF opportunity for an SP5 index fund"
X Link 2020-07-11T15:59Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"That is actually not true. There were surpluses in [----] & [----] paying off War Bonds and it was a horrible time for the stock market. [----] & [----] saw tiny surpluses. The rest of that specified time was still deficit spending but dwarfed by rising GDP. After WWII we ran balanced budgets for over a decade. Today we're set to borrow more than $10 trillion over a decade. We'd need $20 trillion of deficit reduction [--] percent annual growth or [--] percent inflation to achieve WWII-like reductions in debt-to-GDP. After WWII we ran balanced budgets for over a decade. Today we're set to borrow more than"
X Link 2021-01-20T04:29Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"It is not true that gold "always struggles" when real interest rates are positive. That is a good rule but there were notable exceptions in [----] [----] and 2018-19"
X Link 2021-03-04T16:07Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"It is a good rule but I would add two caveats: ".Unless the Fed is about to end QE suddenly or there is a sudden pandemic." "Don't be bearish when the cumulative advance-decline lines are all making new highs." -Me moments ago as I reviewed the macro charts $SPX $SPY https://t.co/G25QkRKVny "Don't be bearish when the cumulative advance-decline lines are all making new highs." -Me moments ago as I reviewed the macro charts $SPX $SPY https://t.co/G25QkRKVny"
X Link 2021-03-15T17:43Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Gold and the Japanese yen are fellow travelers moving together most of the time. That is an important point to understand in order to properly interpret something big that happened in this week's Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC. 1/3"
X Link 2021-03-20T01:41Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"This week the commercial (big money) traders of Japanese yen futures made a huge move toward the long side as if they know what is coming and sense some urgency about getting positioned for it. Biggest net long position for this group now in almost [--] years. 2/3"
X Link 2021-03-20T01:42Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"That is something I have addressed before here: Both climate and interest rates have a dominant 60-year cycle. The last sunspot cycle was one of the weakest in terms of cumulative sunspots (a very crude measure) since record keeping began in the 1700s. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/why_are_bond_yields_staying_low/ @McClellanOsc @NuitSeraCalme And beware: the solar physicists seem to agree that we are heading into a Maunder minimum which suggests it is gonna get colder for a few decades at least."
X Link 2021-03-30T21:24Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Seasonality Versus The Fed" is posted at And you can sign up there to get them delivered each week directly to your email. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/seasonality_versus_the_fed/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/seasonality_versus_the_fed/"
X Link 2021-06-10T15:06Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"The Bond CEF A-D Line made a new all time high this past week. No sign of trouble for financial market liquidity. These issues are often blamed for "contaminating" the composite A-D data. I find that they are even better for gauging liquidity than the common-only A-D data"
X Link 2021-06-27T03:19Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"We could eliminate the debt ceiling and deficits with just one law change. Here's how it would work: On Sep. [--] if the total federal debt is even [--] penny higher than 1yr ago then tax rate for that year goes to 90% for POTUS VP Congress & cabinet on all household income. What's the point in even having a debt ceiling if Congress just keeps raising the limit What's the point in even having a debt ceiling if Congress just keeps raising the limit"
X Link 2021-08-02T23:36Z 106.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Here is why Aug. preliminary UMich sentiment is a big deal. Trend chances in that data lead to trend changes [--] months later for unemployment rate (note big Covid anomaly). Problem is there is noise in the UMich data. So is August drop in sentiment trend change or noise"
X Link 2021-08-13T15:37Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"If you are worried about the big rise in yields over the past [--] trading days rest assured that this ain't nothing. Bond yields are [--] years overdue for an upturn in the 60-year cycle and so they have to work hard to make up for lost time like after 1900's late bottom"
X Link 2021-09-29T02:46Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Here is an update. So far it is happening pretty close to the plan. I don't think that bond yields will echo gold's Covid Crash dip; it was an exogenous event not reflecting of the underlying forces that drive both series (at different times)"
X Link 2021-10-16T23:32Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"This relationship is not a perfect correlation but it is a really interesting one. It has gone off track when the Fed puts a thumb on the scale"
X Link 2021-10-20T15:16Z 105.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Currency logic is funny. Higher CPI means the dollar is less valuable. But it also means that the Fed MIGHT make another incremental quarter point rate hike sooner. So to chase that presumed extra quarter point of T-Bill yield traders pushed up the DXY by 0.9% on Wednesday"
X Link 2021-11-11T01:06Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@JeppesenRj Welcome aboard although I dont really understand your question. Our website spells out the subscription terms"
X Link 2021-11-22T19:37Z 105.9K followers, [--] engagements
"After a long thread this week about Fed Funds and mechanical governors here is another way to see how far behind the FOMC is. The commercial traders of eurodollar futures give a 10-mo. leading indication for ST rates. But sometimes the Fed gets stubborn. https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1479308972767154177 Some people may not well understand the point about the 2-year T-Note yield and its relationship to the Fed Funds target rate. It might help to think of the Feds interest rates as a throttle on the economy. Heres a thread. @DLineCap @judyshel 1/19"
X Link 2022-01-08T22:03Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Rate hike cycles typically end once the FOMC finally catches up to the 2-year. Would you like that point to be now at 1% or later at 5% Getting to the right interest rate setting cuts down on overs-timulation and over-restriction. @McClellanOsc @DLineCap What would That to the markets and where tub do you see tech heading now @McClellanOsc @DLineCap What would That to the markets and where tub do you see tech heading now"
X Link 2022-01-19T04:34Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Why not 150bps The longer that the Fed waits to catch up (or down) to the 2-year yield the worse the damage the Fed causes either through over stimulation or over restriction. Rate hike cycles end when the Fed meets the 2-year. Why wait to do that at a higher level Question to Bullard in Q&A: Why not 75bps Question to Bullard in Q&A: Why not 75bps"
X Link 2022-02-17T17:09Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Gold prices have been making higher highs but gold's fellow traveler the Japanese yen has not (yet) confirmed). When they disagree it is usually the yen which ends up being right about where both are headed. Usually"
X Link 2022-02-23T02:38Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Here is a dog that did not bark. For years the Mexican peso exchange rate to the $US has had a very strong correlation with oil prices. Mexico is an oil producer after all. But since early [----] that relationship appears to be broken"
X Link 2022-03-05T00:00Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Bond yields are at higher closing highs today (TYX anyway) which is all part of the script that gold laid down 20-1/2 months prior. Major top due in mid to late April"
X Link 2022-03-10T21:18Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"It is pretty amazing how financial market liquidity matters everywhere. The NYSE's A-D Line is one of the best gauges of the health of the liquidity stream overlaid here on the NFT trading volume plot. 'The average selling price of an NFT has dropped more than 48% since a November peak. Daily trading volumes on OpenSea the biggest marketplace for NFTs have plummeted 80% in March just a month after they reached a record peak in February.' https://t.co/bmABvfofAd https://t.co/fbQmLhRTDJ 'The average selling price of an NFT has dropped more than 48% since a November peak. Daily trading volumes"
X Link 2022-03-11T18:27Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Gold prices lead crude oil prices chart for upcoming Spaces conversation with @leadlagreport "
X Link 2022-05-10T15:38Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Gold prices also lead bond yields chart for upcoming Spaces conversation with @leadlagreport "
X Link 2022-05-10T15:40Z 105.3K followers, [--] engagements
"I met a senior loan officer on Wednesday and I asked him why jumbo 30yr rate is BELOW conventional. He said it was a difference in who the buyers of that MBS debt are plus jumbos are now seen as better credit risk. This is new"
X Link 2022-05-19T22:26Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"My latest Chart In Focus article "Corporate Bonds Show Oversold Condition For T-Bonds" is posted at https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/corporate_bonds_show_oversold_condition_for_t-bonds/ https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/corporate_bonds_show_oversold_condition_for_t-bonds/"
X Link 2022-06-17T13:17Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Key strategy: Make ice at nice. Use the ice to cool you during the day. Arbitrage the night/day price difference. Takes some planning and hardware though. Crazy pricing day on Texas power grid. Night brings relief. From $5000 to $70. But gonna be red hot for next week or so. Grid may get tested again. https://t.co/v4ESGj9W9s Crazy pricing day on Texas power grid. Night brings relief. From $5000 to $70. But gonna be red hot for next week or so. Grid may get tested again. https://t.co/v4ESGj9W9s"
X Link 2022-07-14T04:37Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"In a bank run the currency component of M1 may remain unchanged. But M2 changes in a big way and so does financial market liquidity"
X Link 2022-07-21T16:25Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Want to know what's fun These data on members of Congress over [--] are inversely correlated with interest rates. If rates are low things feel fine and we reelect incumbents. If rates rise things are bad and we feel less confident seeking change thru younger representatives. not gonna lie the first time I generated this data and chart it was so jaw dropping I immediately checked to confirm it was right https://t.co/CgvqVhFghs https://t.co/UIV3KZPUC2 not gonna lie the first time I generated this data and chart it was so jaw dropping I immediately checked to confirm it was right"
X Link 2022-09-14T00:19Z 105.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Gold's leading indication says that the break below $80 in crude oil is not the end of the decline. Bottom is due around Nov. 1"
X Link 2022-09-23T14:58Z 105.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Congress' mandate is zero percent inflation. Not 2%. Definitely not 4%. Zero"
X Link 2022-11-02T02:53Z 105.2K followers, [--] engagements
"If you buy an option you are taking a limited risk for a theoretically unlimited return. If you sell an option that is flipped; finite return & infinite risk. Every veteran at some point raised a hand and sold a put option with your freedom as the strike price. #VeteransDay"
X Link 2022-11-10T22:50Z 105.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Fed rate hike cycles typically end when the Fed Funds rate catches up to where the 2-year yield has already gone. We have that condition now. So the Fed should stop but there is no indication that they know that based on the post-meeting announcement"
X Link 2022-12-15T03:59Z 105.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Part 9: When someone says "Send me a screenshot" they don't really mean "with your phone""
X Link 2023-01-11T23:05Z 105.3K followers, 13.1K engagements
"The A-D Line for the overall Nasdaq has such a persistent bearish bias that it is functionally unusable. The A-D Line for the stocks in the NDX is better but it almost never shows divergences vs. prices. It is showing us one now"
X Link 2023-04-28T15:02Z 115.5K followers, 36.9K engagements
"This one's pretty good. Discussed here: https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/nyse_a-d_line_adds_to_the_list_of_divergences/ If you had one chart besides a simple S&P [---] chart to get a read on the overall market environment what would it be and why https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/nyse_a-d_line_adds_to_the_list_of_divergences/ If you had one chart besides a simple S&P [---] chart to get a read on the overall market environment what would it be and why"
X Link 2023-05-12T16:33Z 108.8K followers, 17K engagements
"Hey @stlouisfed the Fed's target is NOT 2%. Stop lying Congress handed you a target of "zero per centum" and no one in the Federal Reserve system has the authority to change that. If you don't like 0% you can go back and ask Congress to change it. Until then comply. Inflation remains well above the Feds 2% target. How did the COVID-19 pandemic change the sources of inflationary pressures and inflations distribution among consumer spending https://t.co/wTbXDeGmpM https://t.co/NlnHsIRI40 Inflation remains well above the Feds 2% target. How did the COVID-19 pandemic change the sources of"
X Link 2023-05-22T23:52Z 90.3K followers, 61.7K engagements
"@factor_members That structure only appears when you price gold in dollars. In other currencies the picture is much different. Here is gold in yen for example still climbing despite gold's recent pullback"
X Link 2023-06-02T14:09Z 90.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Gold prices did not make a lower low last week but gold's fellow traveler the Japanese yen to dollar exchange rate did make a lower low. This is important because when the two disagree it is usually the yen which is correct about where both are headed"
X Link 2023-06-19T23:45Z 101.7K followers, 30.7K engagements
"I don't normally work on currencies data but something in Friday's COT Report caught my eye. The big-money "commercial" traders of British pound futures made a big move this week to the short side as if someone knows something is coming. What that is I don't know. But when they make a rapid one-week move like this it is usually a decent sign of a top for the pound. Worth noting is that the Friday COT Report data reflect positions held as of the preceding Tuesday so this is not a case traders reacting to the Wagner Group news on Friday (unless "somebody" knew something a long way in advance"
X Link 2023-06-24T03:21Z 100.8K followers, 239.5K engagements
"The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator gave a bullish signal when it popped above zero on June [--]. It managed to stay positive June [--]. Bulls would really want to see this scream up to a super-high level on this move. A negative breadth day June [--] with more than [---] net declining"
X Link 2023-06-30T10:00Z 86.2K followers, 38.8K engagements
"Come for the Zeitgeist. Stay for the 8.25% dividend yield. And the uptrend"
X Link 2023-06-30T16:43Z 90.3K followers, 11.2K engagements
"@AmyAHarder @Climeworks @AncaGurzu Does this qualify as an "energy photo" I am certain that it uses up a lot of energy accomplishing its stated task. But it does not create the additional energy that we are going to need so is "energy photo" the right category for it"
X Link 2023-07-10T18:59Z 105.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Seeing the chart by @LizAnnSonders of used car prices it occurred to me that the plot looks a lot like that of M2. Sure enough data from @stlouisfed confirm this at least for the plot behavior during Covid and afterward"
X Link 2023-07-11T14:44Z 90.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@Malsonian @LizAnnSonders @stlouisfed Implications: Stop screwing with money supply and we can stop the turbulence in inflation"
X Link 2023-07-11T15:11Z 90.4K followers, [--] engagements
"On @CNBCClosingBell just now @michaelsantoli offered a chart like this one to make the point that a declining Fed balance sheet does not really correlate that well with the SP500's movements. While true at one time scale that misses some big context. 1/2"
X Link 2023-07-11T20:57Z 90.4K followers, 49.2K engagements
"Everyone should understand that we're currently in the 3rd year of the current presidential term which except for [----] and [----] is a reliable up year. We have just been through the strongest portion of that cycle & SPX is still not making higher highs. Fed's thumbprints. 2/2"
X Link 2023-07-12T09:25Z 90.4K followers, 14.3K engagements
"Bonus view: We should also understand that in a much longer term view the correlation between Fed assets and stock price behavior is inescapable. So the real question is what makes [----] different I argue it is that 3rd year effect which should actually be more robust"
X Link 2023-07-11T21:28Z 90.3K followers, 10.7K engagements
""If you can't say something nice about someone come sit next to me" - - - Hollywood gossip columnist Hedda Hopper 1885-1966"
X Link 2023-07-11T21:57Z 87K followers, 13.4K engagements
"It is an under reported story about how the total available supply of junk bonds has been shrinking compared to "investment grade". That leaves junk traders clamoring for this limited supply which affects those spreads. Interestingly these changes correlate to bond prices. One of the bigger disconnects in the markets today is high yield spreads which remain very suppressed despite the number of corporate bankruptcies starting to climb. #stocks #markets #economy #investing #financialservices https://t.co/IKAemXksYx One of the bigger disconnects in the markets today is high yield spreads which"
X Link 2023-07-20T18:00Z 102K followers, 33.2K engagements
"I reported back in Dec. [----] that if the effective federal interest rate gets up above 10% as it did in the early 1980s then interest payments would eat up all taxes. See"
X Link 2023-07-20T19:30Z 86.2K followers, 26.7K engagements
"Latest M2 data just out tiny uptick in M2 (not seasonally adjusted) in June. We have never seen a drop like this one in M2/GDP so it is hard to say exactly what it means. We know that big rises in M2/GDP lead to big stock market gains [--] year later. But it is extrapolation not yet supported by history to say that a decline in M2/GDP means a drop a year later for stocks"
X Link 2023-07-25T17:11Z 90.3K followers, 127.6K engagements
"This is a pretty impressive looking chart and bad news for anyone trying to make monthly payments on a Peterbilt. From"
X Link 2023-07-26T20:39Z 90.3K followers, 27.7K engagements
"Market was up on Thursday until the selling started at 1PM Eastern time. Friday is copying that pattern (so far)"
X Link 2023-07-29T00:17Z 90.3K followers, 20.3K engagements
"Commercial traders of silver futures are back up to a big net short position as a group a condition pretty reliably associated with price tops. Worth nothing that they have almost never been net long as a group as many of these traders are silver producers selling forward. The message here is that these smart-money traders think that this price is a good one to lock in"
X Link 2023-07-29T18:28Z 105.3K followers, 71.4K engagements
"@WalterDeemer If this trend keeps going then @hmeisler is going to have to tape on a sheet of graph paper to the bottom of the page"
X Link 2023-07-31T21:05Z 90.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The leading indication for stock prices from the Baltic Dry Index agrees with the shift toward seasonal stock market weakness due to start right now"
X Link 2023-08-01T16:58Z 90.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@s86CoffeeDev @MBbiotech You should stop drunk-tweeting and stick to watching bondage porn in your mom's basement"
X Link 2023-08-02T16:43Z 90.3K followers, [--] engagements
"A crude graphical overlay seems to show a pretty strong inverse correlation to the sunspot cycle. Hurricane peak tends to occur ahead of the sunspot minimum. But hurricane minimum appears at the sunspot maximum"
X Link 2023-08-02T18:00Z 90.3K followers, 25.8K engagements
"For those who have not yet lived thru a period of positive interest rates this is a great lesson. This discrepancy is a function of interest rates. If you are sitting on a large pile of money you can buy T-Bills or you can buy spot gold and then short the futures and collect"
X Link 2023-08-07T15:16Z 90.3K followers, [---] engagements
"I hear it argued that the inverted yield curve must not matter this time because if it mattered then it should have mattered by now. This misunderstands the 15-month lag"
X Link 2023-08-08T03:59Z 85.6K followers, 98K engagements
"Understanding the 1980-2005 real estate bubble and the current one is helped by viewing this chart of U.S. age demographics. Boomers were like the pig going through the python and the climax of the boomers' real estate boom in the 2000s got fueled by Fed's low interest rates"
X Link 2023-08-11T20:40Z 90.4K followers, [---] engagements
"December gold futures has closed down now for [--] days in a row and [--] out of the last [--]. That takes my 9-day Up-Down Oscillator to an oversold condition. It is a simple indicator: count the % of up closes over the past [--] days and smooth with a 3-day simple MA"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:23Z 86.9K followers, 18.3K engagements
"@Global_Trader Yes"
X Link 2023-08-12T14:48Z 86.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Or at least the worry about extreme heat peaks every summer anyway. From"
X Link 2023-08-12T22:28Z 90.4K followers, 16.5K engagements
"The chart would be so much better with an overlay of prices. So here you go (yes crudely done but good enough). It works like most sentiment indications as a contrary indication at extremes"
X Link 2023-08-13T16:41Z 90.3K followers, 40.8K engagements
"This is how climate propaganda is performed. Unsourced chart of dubious data which conflicts with well-founded data all to get you alarmed. Here is U. Alabama-Huntsville satellite data. Yes temps are going up this year that's true normal when moving to El Nio. NOT a record"
X Link 2023-08-15T17:55Z 90.4K followers, 25.4K engagements
"Here is why it matters. An ETF owning BTC futures will be in the nearest months' contracts. But then as they expire the ETF has to "roll" to a farther out one. BTC futures are in contango now meaning that the distant month contracts are priced higher. So each roll costs money. Unpopular take: I don't see any major benefit of a spot bitcoin ETF over a futures ETF. (Other than the possibility that someone will launch one at 0.25% which they won't.) Unpopular take: I don't see any major benefit of a spot bitcoin ETF over a futures ETF. (Other than the possibility that someone will launch one at"
X Link 2023-08-15T21:21Z 103.2K followers, 16.2K engagements
"This long term trend in bonds is as it is supposed to be. The turn was actually about a decade late in coming according to the 60-year cycle which has rates due to peak in [----]. It is tied to a cycle of the same length in many climate data series"
X Link 2023-08-17T16:37Z 90.4K followers, 18.6K engagements
"American Trader: "Gold is in a downtrend since May." Japanese Trader: "What do you mean Gold is still in an uptrend for the past several years." Both of them are correct. The interesting point is that when the two plots disagree the yen-priced plot is usually correct"
X Link 2023-08-18T01:11Z 90.3K followers, 93.5K engagements
"Perhaps this will help you. Next major peak for yields is due around [----]. This 60-year cycle also appears in a lot of climate data series implying a causal relationship. We have good data on interest rates longer than we have good data on temperatures"
X Link 2023-08-21T18:14Z 87.3K followers, 40.1K engagements
"If you think higher inflation (more theft) is good then go make your case to Congress and see if they will change the statutory guidance to the Fed which is that the Fed's inflation target is "zero per centum". Until Congress changes that the FOMC needs to salute and comply"
X Link 2023-08-21T18:16Z 87.1K followers, 13.1K engagements
"Inflation is a problem not just because it steals wealth from people but because it also leads to other problems. Crime rates of all types tend to lag changes in the inflation rate by about [--] year. So those who want higher inflation are also asking for more crime"
X Link 2023-08-21T18:33Z 90.3K followers, 23.8K engagements
"Gold futures prices have not yet broken their downtrend line but the Short Term Price Oscillator has broken its own which often presages prices doing the same"
X Link 2023-08-22T02:27Z 90.3K followers, 32K engagements
"Gold does not have an annual cycle like the stock market but rather a 13-1/2 month cycle. This makes seasonal studies in gold unreliable. Here is an example"
X Link 2023-08-22T02:43Z 90.3K followers, 14.1K engagements
"And if you want to know what food prices are going to do look at what gold prices did [--] months earlier. (Hint: gold bottomed October [----] and started rising. Add [--] months to get the forecast.)"
X Link 2023-08-23T03:17Z 90.3K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Latest survey data from Investors Intelligence show sentiment is still just doing what prices are doing. See @hmeisler's pinned tweet"
X Link 2023-08-23T14:48Z 90.4K followers, [----] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing