#  @MakaiMarine Makai Research Makai Research posts on X about $fro, $insw, $asc, $stng the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1473129133/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +56% - [--] Month [------] +112% - [--] Months [-------] -15% - [--] Year [-------] +18% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1473129133/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +17% - [--] Month [--] +18% - [--] Months [---] +57% - [--] Year [---] +59% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1473129133/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.60% - [--] Month [-----] +1.10% - [--] Months [-----] +5.20% - [--] Year [-----] +19% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1473129133/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 75.96% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 40.38% [countries](/list/countries) 7.69% [finance](/list/finance) 5.77% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 1.92% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.96% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 0.48% **Social topic influence** [$fro](/topic/$fro) #184, [$insw](/topic/$insw) #1, [$asc](/topic/$asc) #8, [$stng](/topic/$stng) #5, [$trmd](/topic/$trmd) #11, [$eco](/topic/$eco) #2, [$dismi](/topic/$dismi) #2, [$dht](/topic/$dht) #1, [$tnk](/topic/$tnk) #3, [$hafn](/topic/$hafn) #4 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@drawingslim](/creator/undefined) [@makaimarine](/creator/undefined) [@ayusovalue](/creator/undefined) [@vkmacro](/creator/undefined) [@olaharaldmoen1](/creator/undefined) [@oilcfd](/creator/undefined) [@tmasonh](/creator/undefined) [@wolfofwalkerst](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Frontline Ltd. (FRO)](/topic/$fro) [International Seaways, Inc. Common Stock (INSW)](/topic/$insw) [ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION (ASC)](/topic/$asc) [Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG)](/topic/$stng) [TORM plc Class A Common Stock (TRMD)](/topic/$trmd) [Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. (ECO)](/topic/$eco) [dHedge DAO (DHT)](/topic/$dht) [Hafnia Limited (HAFN)](/topic/$hafn) [Tokenomy (TEN)](/topic/$ten) [Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)](/topic/$vlo) [PBF ENERGY INC. (PBF)](/topic/$pbf) [Phillips [--] (PSX)](/topic/$psx) [Partisia Blockchain (MPC)](/topic/$mpc) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "In our Weekly Product Tanker Report two weeks ago we suggested that how the LR market resolved the wide LR2/LR1 premium would set the tone for the market but that the collapse in TC17 AG/EAF would make closure from an LR1 spike difficult. Voil. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970416956562977061 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970416956562977061" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1970416956562977061) 2025-09-23T09:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Updated oil rig and frac spread productivity charts in case you were wondering why LTO production hasn't rolled over. Yet. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2015022925305303271) 2026-01-24T11:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot declines continue and the BALMO has come back near spot with two trading days remaining. Feb contract remains near $95k/day providing a near-term contango. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016456478689821162) 2026-01-28T10:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD25 USG/UKC update. What the FFA market has been saying about the spectacular TD25 spot surge during the past week. Will go out on a limb and suggest that maybe the market recognises the difference between temporary and sustainable Ax demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016458784118390835) 2026-01-28T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016599604649771179) 2026-01-28T19:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "VLSFO bunker prices rebounding from five-year lows tracking the recent jump in crude prices. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016796683812704550) 2026-01-29T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Hi-5 spread (VLSFO-HSFO) still going nowhere which is odd considering the increase in OPEC AG crude production but the Dangote RFCC is down into Feb. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016798588714492312) 2026-01-29T09:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Singapore VLSFO futures curve has returned to backwardation while Rotterdam remains in contango. Lower Russian HSFO imports have forced an even steeper backwardation in the Singapore HSFO curve. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016811089271443816) 2026-01-29T09:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Additional small losses in spot but the Feb/Mar contracts are making the near-term contango more emphatic. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016820430724575596) 2026-01-29T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Tiny uptick in spot but the near-term contango steepened by $10k/day yesterday. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2017205050297270665) 2026-01-30T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Little change in the FFA curve aside from spot ticking lower. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2017205262948458695) 2026-01-30T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Obviously need to repost this chart from last summer. Earnings levels are different due to the different starting point for this Iranian episode but same dynamic. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2017288288634097994) 2026-01-30T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Friday's Baltic closes for TD3C FFAs: Feb26 [-----] [-----] mid -5.9% Mar26 [-----] [-----] mid -1.5% not +2.46% Apr26 [-----] [-----] mid +0.9% not +3.48% The daily changes on the FIS screens are problematic. Some recognise this. Others well #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018311471931797704) 2026-02-02T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. What happens to spot when owners do not offer into AG cargoes and the supply curve shifts to the LEFT 🙄. The shape of the FFA curve reflects the sudden enthusiasm for Iran hedges. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018332254255141217) 2026-02-02T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. More of the same except for the higher convexity in the near-term backwardation. BALMO and Mar26 contracts declining versus spot rise. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018633390820606451) 2026-02-03T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Also more of the same. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018633589651337667) 2026-02-03T10:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Small downtick in spot and increasing convexity in the near-term backwardation. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018984024354488392) 2026-02-04T09:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Spot downdraft as predicted by the FFAs for the past week or so. The market did recognise the difference between temporary (VEN crude storage release) and sustainable Ax demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2018984851974557948) 2026-02-04T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2019141258489573856) 2026-02-04T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. A bit less convexity. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2019357341439918111) 2026-02-05T10:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. If spot continues to find support at these levels would not be surprised to see a small contango develop. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2019357543286599725) 2026-02-05T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "No FFA updates today; scrambling to finish a report. Also will be in London at IP Week (not IE) for a couple of days so no posting early next week. #oott #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2019721239821160851) 2026-02-06T10:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 We just posted our analysis on the impact of Venezuelan imports on the US Gulf refining system and coker throughput on Substack (link in bio). It's entitled "Dos Amigos" since there is more at work here than just Venezuelan flows. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020762590826336641) 2026-02-09T07:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "FFA Markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker Report posted to Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page report). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://t.co/ITv3nEB5ud We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021901239345102906) 2026-02-12T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Panama bunker sales declined by 8.5% yoy in Nov from a robust [----] performance due to 3.6% fewer calls yoy and smaller stem sizes. The HSFO share of fuel oil sales is sliding below 27% for [----] after an outsized 32.2% share in [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001585789398929887 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001585789398929887" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001585789398929887) 2025-12-18T09:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. The BALMO has been trading above spot for a couple of days giving rise to a near-term contango. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021900675152859580) 2026-02-12T10:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Now back from IP Week so will post some charts from Monday's report on US Gulf refiners and Venezuelan crude imports. Primarily this is a story about improved coker utilisations and reduced imports of unfinished resid from higher Venezuelan intake. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021916664866943074 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021916664866943074" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021916664866943074) 2026-02-12T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Mexican export situation becomes acute as the Dos Bocas refinery continues to improve runs but this is a conservative forecast. Tula & Salina Cruz offer more utilisation upside on the potential completion of their coker installations. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN The "Dos" part of the title relates to the remarkable collapse in Mexican crude exports as production continues to slide and as refining recovers. The IEA is forecasting that Mexico becomes a net crude importer by [----] but we have run some crude mass balance scenarios. #oott" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021918250607513993) 2026-02-12T12:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Coker capacity constraints should limit PADD3 Venezuelan crude imports to [---] kbpd assuming continued losses in Mexican crude exports to the region. Texas Gulf refiners would run the majority of VEN crude. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2022249268099297332) 2026-02-13T09:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Offsetting flows do matter and most of the 0.27% increase in global crude tonne-mile demand (over three years) is from higher PADD3 utilisations and imports. Lower unfinished resid imports would remove 0.1% from this. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2022295013372186741) 2026-02-13T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021671217300709632) 2026-02-11T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The "Dos" part of the title relates to the remarkable collapse in Mexican crude exports as production continues to slide and as refining recovers. The IEA is forecasting that Mexico becomes a net crude importer by [----] but we have run some crude mass balance scenarios. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2021917270834888780) 2026-02-12T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Although the BALMO dropped by $3.6k/day yesterday the near-term contango is lingering. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2022279633081700389) 2026-02-13T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We excluded this chart from Monday's report since it was focused on PADD3 but a similar Venezuela vs Mexico dynamic emerges in Europe as it increases Venezuelan crude intake. Spain would be the principal driver of this. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2022295586511155394) 2026-02-13T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The Dec BALMO extending yesterday's move. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1999444653872128239) 2025-12-12T11:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Panama bunker sales declined by 8.5% yoy in Nov from a robust [----] performance. The HSFO share of fuel oil sales is sliding below 27% in [----] after an outsized 32.2% share in [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001584613542535494) 2025-12-18T09:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot has now spent [--] trading days in the same $3k/day range which is extraordinary for a market at 94-95% utilisation. The FFA market remains unimpressed with the front end of the curve continuing to steepen. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001601920730042767) 2025-12-18T10:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. As spot continues to move higher the front end of the curve is signalling an extended move for the remainder of the year (five days in the Baltic calendar). #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001602390311555230) 2025-12-18T10:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Farewell narrow 13-day trading range we hardly knew ye. FFA market acting accordingly to the move lower although 'tis the season for BALMO weirdness. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001956123377893421) 2025-12-19T10:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. Spot has followed the early-week BALMO path closely which is now indicating a near-term peak in spot. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001956641676329244) 2025-12-19T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In addition to OPEC+ returning [--] mbpd of AG crude production since March a sharp drop in AG crude demand boosted Nov export volumes and added fuel to the VLCC rally. An upset at Kuwait's Al Zour refinery added [---] kbpd while extended maintenance at KSA's SATORP and Ras Tanura refineries contributed as well as fading direct crude burn. Al Zour has restarted one of its two afflicted CDUs and SATORP maintenance has ended along with other AG regional work. As crude intake recovers seasonally and with OPEC crude cut reversals on hold crude export availability should ebb by [---] mbpd through March." [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2002021717032804494) 2025-12-19T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We discussed the AG crude fundamentals on Friday but if only there had been another sign of what was coming. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2003436093971267824) 2025-12-23T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. No comment since it is Christmas.🎄 #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2003747628325142657) 2025-12-24T08:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Happy New Year (unless you are still a VL supercycle believer). Meanwhile a contango was inevitable after a $90k/day earnings downdraft. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2008861943654948906) 2026-01-07T11:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. Given the fixture & delivery lags VLs are typically the first to peak in winter followed by Sx and then Ax in response to the imminent peak in global crude runs. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2008863242626670707) 2026-01-07T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. As discussed yesterday this contango has been about re-equilibrating TD3C to other VL routes and dirty sectors. It has been in place since Friday but received a boost yesterday from VEN headlines. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009226801445470516) 2026-01-08T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The jump in the TD20 FFA curve is now suggesting that spot stabilises immediately when the WAF differentials and near-term fundamentals may not support this. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009227781981515911) 2026-01-08T11:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yesterday we discussed the wide TD3C v TD22 differentials but another spread that requires re-equilibrating is the massive Suezmax premium to VLs. Again both the TD3C contango and TD20 backwardation reflect an expected realignment. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET TD3C AG/China FFA update. As discussed yesterday this contango has been about re-equilibrating TD3C to other VL routes and dirty sectors. It has been in place since Friday but received a boost yesterday from VEN headlines. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET https://t.co/dPmJIBavNx TD3C AG/China FFA update." [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009229677064290808) 2026-01-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the start of the year. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009576598404731358) 2026-01-09T10:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Re-equilibrium status. The jump in TD3C AG/China is closing the wild differentials seen following the earnings rout. Markets are approaching median spreads and equilibrium. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the start of the year. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET https://t.co/x96ySYa1Gw TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009577018434994487) 2026-01-09T10:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Updated VLCC AG availability if you have any questions about the recent movement in spot earnings. Will be interesting to see if this week's spot rebound will bring availability back towards the median [---] level. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2009580586659381564) 2026-01-09T10:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. As the crude routes re-equilibrate from the year-end craziness the spot TD3C impulse may be slowing but the front-end FFA enthusiasm remains. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2010678387010932775) 2026-01-12T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@VKMacro @olaharaldmoen1 USG C5/naphtha export availability is constrained near [---] kbpd on runs/yields and much of it flows to Asia. To the extent that they use LTO as a diluent this too is constrained in the near-term so taking from Europe and mostly Asia flows" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2010679817822208373) 2026-01-12T11:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It is always more complex but there are those who can balance global naphtha flows across the dark and white fleets and those who cannot. Trying to intuit the answer on your own is probably not the best approach. Another partial derivative is displaced Russian naphtha that heads to Asia on dark vessels reducing AG/Asia flows on compliant vessels. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010680013486424145 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010680013486424145" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2010680013486424145) 2026-01-12T11:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. With the slowing in TD3C spot gains the FFA curve came in a little yesterday but with the FFA market all loved up again today we'll see. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2011077807678402647) 2026-01-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Once we get past our weekly report we will complete our comprehensive analysis of the US Gulf refining system under additional Venezuelan crude volumes. Note the impact of sanctions/waivers on historical VEN imports by refiner. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2011395825189167254) 2026-01-14T11:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. More of the same. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2011763182998814943) 2026-01-15T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot to $100k/day but the FFA curve came in slightly. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2012113178889740346) 2026-01-16T10:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The collapse in CPC pipeline flows has sparked a mad panic for light/sweet barrels in the Atlantic (WAF) steepening the Brent backwardation and widening Brent/Dubai. The CPC security situation has also sent TD6 CPC/Med to $130k/day. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012113697057997302 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012113697057997302" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2012113697057997302) 2026-01-16T10:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Working on a VEN report at the moment. One of our favourite charts reflecting the aftermath of Chvez' socialist "Bolivarian Revolution" which sliced Venezuelan per capita income by 75% to near sub-Saharan levels. Note the relative performance to the rest of Latin America. #oott #tankers https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013583802832957874 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013583802832957874" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2013583802832957874) 2026-01-20T12:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "From our upcoming PADD3/VEN report. An incremental [---] kbpd of VEN imports would require 6-7 Afras or about 3-4 weeks of [----] Ax/LR2 deliveries. This excludes the offsetting declines in COL crude and MEX crude & resid imports. Compare and contrast this to the massive and immediate Ax/Sx demand impulse to move 30-50 MB of VEN crude from storage to refiners. They are not the same but some cannot differentiate between the two. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015724863348965528 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015724863348965528" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2015724863348965528) 2026-01-26T09:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. A burst in chartering volumes yesterday prompted a jump in spot TD3C maintaining FFA market enthusiasm. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2011392025812467846) 2026-01-14T10:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot to $120k/day but considerable market debate about this week's direction. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2013201961575755801) 2026-01-19T10:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Small downtick in spot convinced the FFA curve to come in a bit. The TD3C BALMO print is interesting in that both TD20 WAF/UKC and TD25 USG/UKC BALMOs are below spot. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2013560286343504357) 2026-01-20T10:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Another downtick in spot has prompted a parallel shift lower in the FFA curve from Feb onwards as the BALMO remains sticky. Note the price action in TD20 WAF/UKC. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2013927267060093101) 2026-01-21T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The BALMO trading below spot was a hint as spot TD20 has reversed sharply hitting the BALMO/Feb/Mar contracts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2013927609449472044) 2026-01-21T10:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "That's right 3-4 weeks of Ax/LR2 deliveries. If European refiners import their previous [---] kbpd of VEN crude then that requires [--] Suezmaxes or [--] weeks of [----] Sx deliveries. That excludes the offsetting flows of other heavy/sour crudes since European imports are flat. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016126801773289829 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016126801773289829" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016126801773289829) 2026-01-27T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on t-h-a-t site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1970893034855272859) 2025-09-24T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1973467143720280246) 2025-10-01T19:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some confusing posts over the weekend about the Cass Freight Index which is at the lowest since the pandemic -- not the GFC -- but still a grim number. Curiously the index has become less correlated to US diesel demand over the past three years. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975118467255693542 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975118467255693542" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1975118467255693542) 2025-10-06T08:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And yet LRs remain lacklustre at best. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI Diesel prices ease amid export surge West of Suez markets are facing record #diesel exports from Asian and Middle Eastern producers as low and stable East/West spreads encouraged #arbitrage flows. This greater supply is now applying pressure on West of Suez prices and cracks. https://t.co/u5XFTa7oWd Diesel prices ease amid export surge West of Suez markets are facing record #diesel exports from Asian and Middle Eastern producers as low and stable East/West spreads encouraged #arbitrage flows. This greater" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1975877376451240217) 2025-10-08T10:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1975986977104072932) 2025-10-08T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on t-h-a-t site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1981067045987827901) 2025-10-22T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1986137367573332392) 2025-11-05T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The FFA markets page from last week's Weekly Product Tanker report. If you read it you would know that we have been discussing for weeks the coming winter seasonality for Atlantic MRs including their annual pre-Thanksgiving theatrics. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988190028497899944 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988190028497899944" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1988190028497899944) 2025-11-11T10:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Also the Short-term Outlook page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report (link in bio). We have been constructive for weeks but need to remain balanced in our assessments. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1988935323427172446) 2025-11-13T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1996292962813157541) 2025-12-03T18:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🚨 US MONTHLY REPORT 🚨 We just posted our latest US Monthly Oil Market Report with September EIA data on t-h-a-t site (link in bio). It includes a granular 23-page analysis covering demand crude & refining trade inventories and inter-PADD movements. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $VLO $PBF $PARR $PSX $MPC $DINO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997991752150429953 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997991752150429953" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1997991752150429953) 2025-12-08T11:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1998811398596595821) 2025-12-10T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key Observations page from Monday's Monthly US Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1999079078134165926) 2025-12-11T11:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TC14 USG/UKC FFA update. As discussed in our Weekly Product Tanker Report for some time the market knows what happens to US Gulf refining in Jan/Feb. Pumpers hyperventilating over every green tick on a broker FFA screen not so much. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1999444973201293512) 2025-12-12T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001386683808268775) 2025-12-17T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Out of the [--] vessels sanctioned by OFAC yesterday for Iranian involvement here are the [--] vessels that are above [--] kdwt and not asphalt carriers. Includes one Afra and one Pana bringing average dwt to [----] kdwt. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001933382653989176 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001933382653989176" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2001933382653989176) 2025-12-19T08:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The four vessels sanctioned by OFAC on Wednesday for Venezuelan involvement. The ROSALIND was already UK OFS sanctioned. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2007029759168193007) 2026-01-02T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2011515032115560569) 2026-01-14T19:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2014049186446967190) 2026-01-21T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. An uptick in spot but interesting that the BALMO gave up much of its premium to spot as the rest of the curve moved higher. Even odder with the curve continuing its move today suggesting spot gains. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2014277406257762811) 2026-01-22T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The spot down move continues but the FFA curve caught a bid yesterday almost on the same order of magnitude as TD3C. Probably in sympathy with the jump in TD25 USG/UKC. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2014277612021952705) 2026-01-22T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Another downtick in spot but the BALMO has now given up all of its premium to spot and now trades at a discount. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2014653175874154758) 2026-01-23T10:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Downdraft in spot but the BALMO remaining flat to spot. We'll see. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2015746108467662925) 2026-01-26T11:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912542423588143543) 2025-04-16T16:23Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements "The FFA markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report. Again a consistent theme on the coming winter seasonality for Atlantic MRs including their annual pre-Thanksgiving antics. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1988933718854287651) 2025-11-13T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key Observations page from yesterday's European Monthly Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1989290487224942761) 2025-11-14T11:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Updated rig count and frac spread count charts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2015016123255623986) 2026-01-24T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot erosion has continued but interestingly both the BALMO and Feb contracts have traded up to $100k/day. The BALMO can be volatile near end-month but this is notable. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/2016105028407251395) 2026-01-27T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The EIA went medieval on its WTI price forecast in today's STEO release. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1955301928545493022) 2025-08-12T16:14Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1991187333803033025) 2025-11-19T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The FFA markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report. As we said TC2 UKC/USAC surged in one of the most-telegraphed moves of the year in keeping with FFAs and its annual pre-Thanksgiving drama. Cue stupid memes. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1991456934378311867) 2025-11-20T10:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key Observations page from Friday's Monthly US Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1992892804712837607) 2025-11-24T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "No Weekly Product Tanker Report today. Attending to some family medical things today. Will try tomorrow. Meanwhile last week's Short-term Outlook page was generally on target especially the LR1 move. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/MakaiMarine/status/1993563085597294877) 2025-11-26T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 We just posted our analysis on the impact of Venezuelan imports on the US Gulf refining system and coker throughput on Substack (link in bio). It's entitled "Dos Amigos" since there is more at work here than just Venezuelan flows. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020762590826336641) 2026-02-09T07:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We suspect that over 95% of retail tanker investors on here have never experienced the other side of a tanker cycle. So they are clinging to the "stocks are wildly undervalued on a P/NAV basis" narrative while believing in unrealistic sell side PTs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1865362733610201479) 2024-12-07T11:48Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements "This is the product tanker investment hypothesis in its entirety -- replacing Russian gasoil from further sources sending utilisations to 99% and earnings to $250k/day. By now it has become an unquestioned mantra in the market. One small problem #tankers $ASC $HAFNI $STNG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1593587349698535424) 2022-11-18T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🧵 to describe what is happening here An LR completing discharge in Rotterdam on [--] Jan when the US/UK airstrikes started had four days to make a ballasting decision near Gibraltar #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750500541359096207) 2024-01-25T12:47Z [----] followers, 20.7K engagements "🧵 This chart reflects what happened in the AG VLCC market last week as owners withheld vessels and stopped offering into AG cargoes on regional threats. VL earnings doubled as the supply curve shifted left against an inelastic demand curve. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937048245093519715) 2025-06-23T07:21Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements "If you are expecting $100k/day VL earnings then the fundamentals suggest something else. Of course anything is possible with triple-digit vols and sentiment but a shift in IND/CHN med/sour sourcing would add a maximum of 2.2% to dwt demand for the white/lt grey compliant fleet. With recent complaint dirty fleet utilisations in the mid-80s this suggests a $10k/day increase in VL earnings. Those $100k/day expectations would require a 9% jump in demand (1 btm). This is the maximum impact because this demand increase assumes the following: 1/ 100% sanctions compliance 2/ No improvement in the low" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879111013976477989) 2025-01-14T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "About 85% of Chinese product exports remain in Asia mostly ASEAN. Chinese export cuts in 2021-22 led to the region sourcing from AG/WC India. Resumption of exports means replacing [---] kbpd of [----] nm barrels with [----] nm ones. Asia clean import TM demand declines. #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1610302381866078209) 2023-01-03T15:49Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements "Last weekend we received an insightful DM reassuring us that rational retail investors do exist on this site but that we see all of the crazies. So true. Many of them are still frothing at the mouth about the coming multi-year $100k/day VLCC supercycle. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867556325003313596) 2024-12-13T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂 @DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1680499701311832064) 2023-07-16T08:48Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements "@DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1680213371688296450) 2023-07-15T13:50Z 16.3K followers, [----] engagements "Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report (link in bio). If you have been reading it you would know that we have been becoming increasing constructive on the clean tanker market especially LRs and Pacific MRs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900498749945720905) 2025-03-14T10:46Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements "Chart from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report. Clean tanker supply set to overwhelm demand later this year. And no LR2s trading dirty will not make all of the supply boo-boos will go away. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928375778254659886) 2025-05-30T08:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Todays OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900206318515818802) 2025-03-13T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We love seeing sell side [----] estimates for clean tanker stocks. They are absolutely hilarious and are a complete fantasy. This is why we say that the sell side will be boiling the retail frog slowly this year as they are forced to come to grips with the eroding S/D balances. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1884227280940986790) 2025-01-28T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Todays five OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912543510361772325) 2025-04-16T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just a reminder of where we are with average clean earnings in case all of the breathless posts on percent changes have you confused. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879142872941039988) 2025-01-14T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just a reminder at this point of the clean tanker cycle NAV and P/NAV are virtually meaningless valuation metrics. So interpreting discounts to NAV as "undervalued" and lauding share repurchases at below NAV as genius are misguided at best. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854130033591226470) 2024-11-06T11:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Every time we update this chart it just keeps getting worse. So it was amusing to hear the pumpers at MM Week blow kisses at owners for being so smart & conservative. Conservative as in [---] mdwt ordered so far in June. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1806271111128092800) 2024-06-27T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Working on our next post updating clean tanker supply. (Oh dear God). An early glimpse here. Deliveries in 2q24 were the lowest in [--] years and on a percent of fleet basis in over [--] years. After this hilarity ensues. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1804085392267731070) 2024-06-21T09:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Owners can recover their LR2 cleaning costs before reaching the Mozambique Channel. This size of reversal in the Ax/LR2 spread has typically pulled 5-10% of the total LR2 fleet back to clean. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1752662311221817638) 2024-01-31T11:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just a little weekend reminder that the BCTI is a flawed proxy for clean tanker TCE earnings being reflective of a fleet that existed [--] years ago. This week's 31% advance reflects a bounce off of abysmal levels while Handy routes TC6 & TC23 comprised 72% of it. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1860259199155859855) 2024-11-23T09:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our latest SS post on the Red Sea impact on clean tanker demand. Including LR2s cleaning up the net utilisation increase is 2.3% which is consistent with avg clean earnings settling into a low-40s/day equilibrium. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762039807398887484) 2024-02-26T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "EIA conspiracy theories abating and @T_Mason_H provided an great overview of the EIA survey regime & the differences between the wholesale outflows of EIA product supplied (PS) & final retail demand. Still if mogas demand is near [---] mbpd how is PS off by so much" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1556602885584060418) 2022-08-08T11:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Jumps in the TD3C AG/China and TD20 WAF/UKC FFA curves from Wed to Fri are about right considering the 2% increase in dwt demand for the White/Lt Grey fleet from the shift in China/India sourcing. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878780583884804143) 2025-01-13T12:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Out of todays [---] UK OFS Russian sanctioned vessels [--] were below [--] kdwt and [--] were already OFAC sanctioned. Of the remaining 93: [--] VLCC [--] Sx [--] Ax [--] Px [--] MR [--] Hs Here is the list of Sx/VL from our fleet database. We did not update any of the names" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920839780788527503) 2025-05-09T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We have just posted our second Weekly Product Tanker Report on that site (link in bio). We added a short-term outlook at the rear of the report and updated it with new fundamental charts (below). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1861812295136899382) 2024-11-27T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "VLCC FFAs (TD3C AG/China) responding to recent rebound in spot. Unlike previous failed spikes the BALMOs are leading the move more enthusiastically bringing up the front end. 4q24 contracts more muted. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833089982535487940) 2024-09-09T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "First of two SSt posts on clean tanker supply. This one covers the remarkable surge in clean ordering and the impact on deliveries and how popular narratives on yard capacity might not apply to clean. #oott #tankers $STNG $ASC $HAFNI Please see link in profile" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1706607298846572585) 2023-09-26T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is how it is likely to happen. Clean rates will rise in 4q23 as they do (almost) every year. Pumpers will breathlessly post green arrows every day. Retail will once again take clean tanker equities to levels inconsistent with fundamentals declare victory. #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1680926735943057415) 2023-07-17T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Oh no we did it again 😱 Another monthly forecast that proved too bullish ($48.9k/day v 46.4k act). Being called bears & insults stem from wildly-unrealistic rate expectations among clean longs fuelled by the sell side & pumpers. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1763520079549878278) 2024-03-01T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Context on Fridays OFAC Russian sanctions list. List included [---] tankers above [--] kdwt [---] excluding shuttle tankers FSUs and yard numbers [--] crude [--] VLs [--] Sx [--] Ax [--] Px [--] Prods/Chem [--] LR2 [--] LR1 [--] MR [--] Hs #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879859875599065589) 2025-01-16T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Last week we suggested that clean rates would rebound within days. They did. An update on where they are. Our target on this move is still $42k/day but we will see. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780517380138897805) 2024-04-17T08:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Words fail us. Ok maybe bizarre. Or delusional. We would love to see what fantasy clean tanker demand numbers they are using to justify the junior analyst cell input of exactly 10.00% for revenue growth in [----]. Will be negative btw. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919717525006192967) 2025-05-06T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For VLs that departed Asia following the start of hostilities and have not fixed they have an important decision coming due. Over the next few days these vessels will be emerging from the Malacca Strait and will need to decide whether to bypass the AG entirely and ballast into the Atlantic. By choosing not to offer into AG cargoes they may have made that decision already. To the extent that owners go full herd mentality and ballast towards COGH en masse the Atlantic Basin would become over-tonnaged hitting VL Suezmax & Afra rates there while AG rates remain elevated. It would take 1-2 months" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937048264638873600) 2025-06-23T07:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Soup Stick (link in bio). Market Summary page below discussing a more tempered rebound following the Atlantic excitement of last week. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864354033311302087) 2024-12-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Out of the [--] vessels in yesterdays OFAC sanctions list only [--] were above [--] kdwt. The [--] chems/prod tankers represent less than 0.1% of their combined fleet. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910609895709200753) 2025-04-11T08:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Errors galore in the weekly EIA data relative to the monthly series (not pristine either) but for gasoline these have switched violently from over-estimation to under-estimation. July will probably be over [---] mbpd. Note the summer [----] errors that helped cause this" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1555172574916657153) 2022-08-04T12:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Pareto finally recognising what we have been saying for [--] weeks -- tanker 4q24 seasonality will be underwhelming relative to history due to fundamentals. Good thing they are mentioning this 15-25% later on tanker stocks. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848667903840649383) 2024-10-22T10:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Much of the problem with analysing the dark fleet is definitional. Most of what you see is the dark fleet being defined as any tanker that carried a naughty cargo during the past 2-3 years. Under this approach the dark fleet appears quite large as with this S&P Platts infographic. Take the [--] VLs and [--] Sx putatively in the Iranian trade. Even accounting for massive waiting time for STS operations payment delays and discharge delays this number of vessels could move over [--] mbpd of Iranian crude and condensate twice the observed volume of current exports. So this begs the question of just how" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896921361919950895) 2025-03-04T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China update. BALMO suggesting a near-term rebound in spot. The question has not been whether it would rebound but by how much before reversing. This will tell a lot about the state of the market. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932415330346844322) 2025-06-10T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Have been posting 1-3 clean FFA charts per week for years but none have triggered equity longs as severely as this one. Tells us just how badly longs want to believe that $90k/day LR earnings are the new Red Sea equilibrium (nope) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1753365207705952281) 2024-02-02T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Speaking of deeply-flawed research from brokers this is aging as well as last years $250k/day Russia forecast from Clarksons Securities. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759535381081428265) 2024-02-19T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If this does not remind you of Paretos famous [---] extra MRs for Russian diesel to Brazil narrative it should. It is just as intensely stupid. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI #Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://t.co/rcsjPCTvNt #Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://t.co/rcsjPCTvNt" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765039977589612694) 2024-03-05T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/hafnia-sees-red-sea-disruption-adding-demand-for-an-extra-160-mr-tankers/2-1-1608136 https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/hafnia-sees-red-sea-disruption-adding-demand-for-an-extra-160-mr-tankers/2-1-1608136" [X Link](https://x.com/tradewindsnews/status/1765029056313983419) 2024-03-05T14:58Z 47.4K followers, [----] engagements "LRs remaining elevated from the Red Sea situation but MR/Hs collapsing from the refining fundamentals that govern the other [--] mbpd of clean trade that does not transit the Red Sea as global crude runs drop [--] mbpd. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742851599087636738) 2024-01-04T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China update presented without comment since everyone is an expert now. One of the beauties of being a forecaster for a living is that you can say "I don't know" every once and a while. This is one of those moments. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934556369195008453) 2025-06-16T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Absolutely. Also Chinese clean export quotas are the constraint. Will limit refinery utilisations & still boost clean stocks by 3-4 days. Unless demand overwhelms forecasts would expect high stocks to force larger second quotas. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI Be careful with this because it has issued full year quotas for some refineries something it has not not done in the past. It means later import quotas in the year will be smaller than other years. China does not have 60% more capacity. https://t.co/hHbz6lkDS2 Be careful with this because it has issued full year quotas" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742126554379870376) 2024-01-02T10:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We mentioned our Feb forecast miss ($2.3k/day too high) but here is our forecast for Mar/Apr ($37.4k and $40.2k respectively) assuming RS crisis continuation. Expect a bounce from these levels then settling below $40k. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765340766040154278) 2024-03-06T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We have been discussing this here since early-March when news of the first OPEC+ cut reversals emerged. Depending upon the volume of Atlantic barrels displaced higher OPEC+ production is highly likely to be negative VLCC tonne-miles. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai spread OPEC+ has made early gains from its phased [---] Mbd output rollback with the Brent-Dubai EFS now at $2/bbl for the first time since October [----]. This price spread shift discourages Atlantic Basin exports into Asia supporting #OPEC+s objective https://t.co/qyD6PswylN OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932751048428462372) 2025-06-11T10:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai spread OPEC+ has made early gains from its phased [---] Mbd output rollback with the Brent-Dubai EFS now at $2/bbl for the first time since October [----]. This price spread shift discourages Atlantic Basin exports into Asia supporting #OPEC+s objective to rebalance regional flows. Since February West of Suez flows to Asia have fallen by over [---] Mbd led by declines in Latin American and West African exports. The intervention signals a tactical recalibration aimed at stemming non-OPEC+ competition and reinforcing pricing power in key demand centres. Stay ahead of the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932669823038656667) 2025-06-11T05:22Z 16.6K followers, [----] engagements "The EIA weekly data is deeply flawed so doing year-over-year or 2-year comparisons is terribly misguided & meaningless. No mogas demand is not below [----] levels. This is just a wonky data point and even the EIA STEO sees a [--] mbpd summer so no conspiracy. EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as all the other empirical data suggests otherwise. https://t.co/WwOHoPp5sT EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1555172566486192128) 2022-08-04T12:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as all the other empirical data suggests otherwise. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529321-us-gasoline-demand-falls-below-2020-but-there-are-far-more-questions-than-answers https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529321-us-gasoline-demand-falls-below-2020-but-there-are-far-more-questions-than-answers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1554976711967535104) 2022-08-03T23:45Z 74.2K followers, [---] engagements "As for a pair of Iranian dark trade Aframaxes going to demolition at [----] years before their fifth special survey this has been the average demo age in stronger market environments. #oott #tankers $TNK $INSW $TNP" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1709133329453215765) 2023-10-03T09:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "During previous OPEC production cuts when Brent-Dubai collapsed from the loss of heavy/sour exports refiners ran a lighter crude slate and cut coker feed rates. The refining dynamics are different this time. #oott #tankers 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1691056053457162240) 2023-08-14T11:55Z [----] followers, 30.6K engagements "Modest Chinese export quotas for only [--] million tonnes of clean products is a recognition that Chinese refiners have only so much scope for pushing products into a soft ASEAN market. Implies that its crude runs will remain weak. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $FRO $DHT" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1837068481130316045) 2024-09-20T09:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1899865569244950930) 2025-03-12T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With VLCC fleet utilisations likely to drift into the low-80s this summer before yes recovering those sell side expectations for $85k/day average earnings in 4q24 would require global crude runs 1.0-1.2 mbpd higher than anyones forecast. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1809193369035243735) 2024-07-05T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "LR1s still under pressure although the Feb BALMO equalling spot suggests that this is a resting point as well as a stable March contract. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759884930505437625) 2024-02-20T10:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Despite all of the 🚀 and 🔥 emojis clean earnings have only nudged higher on stronger LR rates offset by MR and Handy spike reversals. Sure earnings will move higher over the next six weeks but some perspective required. #oott #tankers $ASC $TRMD $HAFNI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1713879449328836900) 2023-10-16T11:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "(sigh) $STNG presentations. This cannot happen on the same time-space continuum zero percent fleet growth and 6.7% tonne-mile growth in [----]. This is due to the simplistic scrapping scenarios in the footnotes when modelling s/d is about finding equilibria. #tankers $HAFNI $ASC" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1712414775265591574) 2023-10-12T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TC5 FFAs responding to the current spike reversal. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755160086954066174) 2024-02-07T09:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Still depending upon the percentage of EoS/Europe flows rerouting the situation is adding at most 3-4% to clean dwt demand. Once the panic subsides & market re-equilibrates this is worth $5-8k/day -- not $40k/day. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750500565203783853) 2024-01-25T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Todays OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902757863308595519) 2025-03-20T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Slide from Kpler webinar on TMX yesterday. Disagree on Scenario [--] with too much TMX crude to LAX. Scenario [--] however is consistent with our findings and the tanker demand outlook from our report four weeks ago. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $DHT Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN prodn committed to US refiners the obvious choice for filling the TMX is cutting USG re-exports. This would make TMX a net negative for crude TM demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK https://t.co/V9xB8MEdfw Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1795733225253609506) 2024-05-29T08:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN prodn committed to US refiners the obvious choice for filling the TMX is cutting USG re-exports. This would make TMX a net negative for crude TM demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788131910708859368) 2024-05-08T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Finally got fed up with the pivot table in the weekly Baker Hughes rig count file and did some Python coding on Saturday to get it into a dataframe and a proper database. Have been upgrading our US crude production models and US Gulf crude export forecasts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954890026254287113) 2025-08-11T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "These vessels would represent a 2.5% jump in the clean operating fleet. Depending upon deployment & loading volumes this offsets half of the current Red Sea impact on dwt demand. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/traders-press-on-with-curious-trend-of-cleaning-up-vlccs-for-product-cargoes/2-1-1662827 https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/traders-press-on-with-curious-trend-of-cleaning-up-vlccs-for-product-cargoes/2-1-1662827" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1803319950989230399) 2024-06-19T06:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. May BALMO contract suggesting a near-term rebound in spot after its recent spike reversal. Probably reflecting enthusiasm for upcoming June nominations. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922242259782627390) 2025-05-13T10:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Did we say back below $18k/day. Never mind $17k/day our fleet-weighted clean average is now flirting with $16k/day and the Red Sea status has not changed. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889300271924146281) 2025-02-11T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Todays submarine stack is a comprehensive analysis of the product tanker market balances (link in bio). As it turns out ordering more ships than the market needs has consequences. Who knew #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821474939196637691) 2024-08-08T09:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "MR earnings beginning to roll over a bit including Atlantic triangulation despite the TC2 UKC/USAC theatrics. We will address the fundamentals behind the Atlantic and AG rates rises shortly. #oott #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1696840289367810451) 2023-08-30T11:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We dont do equities but presumably these support levels might be a better place to buy clean tanker stocks than when you were called a p*ssy 2-3 weeks ago. #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1831640169906135289) 2024-09-05T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Back from IP Week (not IE) and working on the Weekly Product Tanker Report today. In the meantime will leave this chart here and see if anyone can recognise the significance of it. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894697871980568943) 2025-02-26T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not issuing the Weekly Product Tanker Report today due to severe unforeseen circumstances. This will also delay the release of the European Monthly Oil Market Report" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947967578447503401) 2025-07-23T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TD3C AG/China FFA update. Note what the BALMO and May contracts were saying on 28Apr and the shift lower since Friday. The market may be coming to grips with the demand dynamics that we have been discussing. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920408671080570975) 2025-05-08T09:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Since the sanctions excitement started in Jan the FFA curve for TD3C AG/China has shifted higher by $12k/day. This is consistent with [---] mbpd of RUS/IRN replacement barrels from AG/Atlantic being placed on the compliant fleet. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892530627066425824) 2025-02-20T11:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For the tiny handful of you on this site who do not believe that the Red Sea will be closed for years to come this is the Europe tonne-mile impact of its reopening. Occurring during a period of 6% annualised fleet growth in 2h25 would be entertaining. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1880242869044125966) 2025-01-17T13:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Four weeks ago we said that the sell side had little choice but to start cutting estimates based upon deteriorating fundamentals. After many called SEB & Fearnleys stupid and irrelevant now Pareto DNB et al have joined the fray. Oops. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls out their estimates into [----] they had to decide: Promote absurd tanker demand numbers against massive supply or Reign in their estimates & TPs (hint: they are just getting started) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1849380348485910740) 2024-10-24T09:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls out their estimates into [----] they had to decide: Promote absurd tanker demand numbers against massive supply or Reign in their estimates & TPs (hint: they are just getting started) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI We were wondering when someone on the sell side would finally recognise that these stocks are trading at 15x [----] EBITDA. Expect more downgrades (eventually) as analysts cannot justify lofty outlooks going into [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $FRO $DHT $INSW https://t.co/Yx2U10Satu We were wondering when" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1839574613065429003) 2024-09-27T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry been finishing up a client project. Similar LR spike as discussed earlier. Weaker Afras creating wider spread this time. Not sure this will add to cleaned-up LR2s since most recognise this a short spike but will stay clean. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1770026938159050823) 2024-03-19T09:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our 9-page Weekly Product Tanker Report includes a page on product tanker fundamentals with charts and commentary that relate to that week's rate environment. Charts will change a bit each week to reflect market dynamics. Link in bio. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859898560239550646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859898560239550646" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859898560239550646) 2024-11-22T09:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry we will release our Weekly Tanker Report a day late. Got caught completely off guard from the Python coding requirements for the new FuelEU regs that started this year. Market summary page from the report with some FuelEU comments. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877048332398506212) 2025-01-08T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As we suggested yesterday we expect a bounce soon perhaps taking clean earnings back to the low-40s/day. After the LR rerouting turmoil then pulsing through the MR sector the clean market is finally settling into an equilibrium. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1778707661590045153) 2024-04-12T08:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our estimate based upon LR2/Ax spread is 5-10% but 7-8% seems reasonable (29-34 LR2s). This represents 2.5-2.9% of clean operating fleet. Europe rerouting worth at most 3.6% of total dwt demand EB naphtha & WB vegoil another 1%. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3% to 7% of the total LR2 fleet) could make the switch. Stay ahead of the markets. Request a demo here: https://t.co/EZWnvyDzo3 #kpler LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1754817587869819093) 2024-02-06T10:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3% to 7% of the total LR2 fleet) could make the switch. Stay ahead of the markets. Request a demo here: #kpler https://www.kpler.com https://www.kpler.com" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1754533451863040003) 2024-02-05T15:52Z 16.6K followers, [----] engagements "Table from upcoming post. If you cannot understand why tonne-miles & dwt demand are different you may want to reassess your understanding of product tanker fundamentals. Also explains why brokers are focused on TMs only. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1753368057810911421) 2024-02-02T10:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just a reminder: the clue is in the title and its adjective. Short-term. Clean tanker deliveries in 2h25 are looming so near-term constructive on seasonality medium-term negative on supply. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report (link in bio). If you have been reading it you would know that we have been becoming increasing constructive on the clean tanker market especially LRs and Pacific MRs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN https://t.co/VL7gJOcxMM Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901581291922895092) 2025-03-17T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "EU ❤ Guyana crude. Refiners from the core EU-6 have taken increasing levels of Guyana crude. Along with USWC & USG refiners their combined share has reached 75% of the current [---] kbpd of production. EU imports picked up after Liza [--] with its Unity Gold crude (33.5 API 0.42%S) that proved a suitable lower-sulphur replacement for Urals. Since its late-2023 start-up Payara Gold crude (28.0 API 0.58%S) has displaced AG grades. All of this has occurred in the context of lowering sulphur content to aid the production of ULSD In the wake of the EU-6 losing [---] kbpd of Russian diesel. We have" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1882742828184248767) 2025-01-24T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Looking at this chart: Industry veterans: sigh Retail: These lines are going up and staying high forever #oott #tankers $STNG $ASC $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI cc: @AyusoValue" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848292724086022558) 2024-10-21T09:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf) despite the local utilitys best efforts to thwart it with two power outages. The fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879613205397516665) 2025-01-15T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#tankers How oil market How retail clean professionals tanker longs look at product look at product inventories inventories" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1661738023967670272) 2023-05-25T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "According to press reports strikes have closed four of France's six refineries for the moment. We have modelled the impact of [--] weeks of strikes at these four plus slow restarts as seen last Autumn. Utilisations hit 52% in March and runs collapse by [---] kbpd. #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1638155203433168897) 2023-03-21T12:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our clean tanker demolition forecast based upon IMO number and survey dates. Remember the right chart any time Gibson or another broker blathers on about the percent of the fleet over [--] years old. It is a moronic metric for clean used for only one purpose. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929842248755085616) 2025-06-03T10:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AyusoValue Alternatively scrapping one older vessel and delivering one NB vessel increases the fleet capacity by an effective 1.5-2.0 vessels despite "zero fleet growth". This is before the effects of cleaner hull & eco engine since older vessels sail 0.5-1.0 knots slower" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1696466386866851915) 2023-08-29T10:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Today's report is on the prospects of plateauing Chinese oil demand and the impact on its refining system (link in bio). Goes into specifics on EV penetration and the evolving structure of Chinese refining. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846151358681944375) 2024-10-15T11:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Left: excerpt from last months product tanker report (link in bio) Right: Apparently we gave owners too much credit for slowing down. 3Q24 orders represent two years worth of demand. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1838162720677396914) 2024-09-23T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "fwiw models say Red Sea equilibrium takes this avg to low-40s/day (vs low-30s pre-Houthi). LR1s are about there with potential further downside to LR2s (low-50s) & MRs (mid-30s). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759522243124535453) 2024-02-19T10:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The problem with this assessment of the OPEC+ cuts & the tanker commentary that you post is the sticky assumption that oil demand will grow [---] mbpd next year per the IEA latest. This is nonsense and with tomorrows IMF WEO release this is should start to change. #tankers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1579461381526814725) 2022-10-10T13:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In celebration of todays crude tanker equity price action the TD3C AG/China FFA curve from yesterday. The comparison with 20Dec is interesting before the sanctions narrative caught fire. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877690397482164642) 2025-01-10T12:14Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "Was delayed in getting the second clean supply post out since my partner was in the hospital for two weeks. She is out now and recovering ok" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1717506393823912344) 2023-10-26T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@MakaiMarine Makai Research
Makai Research posts on X about $fro, $insw, $asc, $stng the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +56%
- [--] Month [------] +112%
- [--] Months [-------] -15%
- [--] Year [-------] +18%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +17%
- [--] Month [--] +18%
- [--] Months [---] +57%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.60%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +5.20%
- [--] Year [-----] +19%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 75.96% cryptocurrencies 40.38% countries 7.69% finance 5.77% technology brands 1.92% social networks 0.96% travel destinations 0.48%
Social topic influence $fro #184, $insw #1, $asc #8, $stng #5, $trmd #11, $eco #2, $dismi #2, $dht #1, $tnk #3, $hafn #4
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @drawingslim @makaimarine @ayusovalue @vkmacro @olaharaldmoen1 @oilcfd @tmasonh @wolfofwalkerst
Top assets mentioned Frontline Ltd. (FRO) International Seaways, Inc. Common Stock (INSW) ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION (ASC) Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) TORM plc Class A Common Stock (TRMD) Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. (ECO) dHedge DAO (DHT) Hafnia Limited (HAFN) Tokenomy (TEN) Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) PBF ENERGY INC. (PBF) Phillips [--] (PSX) Partisia Blockchain (MPC) Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"In our Weekly Product Tanker Report two weeks ago we suggested that how the LR market resolved the wide LR2/LR1 premium would set the tone for the market but that the collapse in TC17 AG/EAF would make closure from an LR1 spike difficult. Voil. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970416956562977061 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970416956562977061"
X Link 2025-09-23T09:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Updated oil rig and frac spread productivity charts in case you were wondering why LTO production hasn't rolled over. Yet. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-24T11:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot declines continue and the BALMO has come back near spot with two trading days remaining. Feb contract remains near $95k/day providing a near-term contango. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-28T10:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD25 USG/UKC update. What the FFA market has been saying about the spectacular TD25 spot surge during the past week. Will go out on a limb and suggest that maybe the market recognises the difference between temporary and sustainable Ax demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-28T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"VLSFO bunker prices rebounding from five-year lows tracking the recent jump in crude prices. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-29T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Hi-5 spread (VLSFO-HSFO) still going nowhere which is odd considering the increase in OPEC AG crude production but the Dangote RFCC is down into Feb. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-29T09:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Singapore VLSFO futures curve has returned to backwardation while Rotterdam remains in contango. Lower Russian HSFO imports have forced an even steeper backwardation in the Singapore HSFO curve. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-29T09:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Additional small losses in spot but the Feb/Mar contracts are making the near-term contango more emphatic. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-29T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Tiny uptick in spot but the near-term contango steepened by $10k/day yesterday. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Little change in the FFA curve aside from spot ticking lower. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Obviously need to repost this chart from last summer. Earnings levels are different due to the different starting point for this Iranian episode but same dynamic. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Friday's Baltic closes for TD3C FFAs: Feb26 [-----] [-----] mid -5.9% Mar26 [-----] [-----] mid -1.5% not +2.46% Apr26 [-----] [-----] mid +0.9% not +3.48% The daily changes on the FIS screens are problematic. Some recognise this. Others well #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-02T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. What happens to spot when owners do not offer into AG cargoes and the supply curve shifts to the LEFT 🙄. The shape of the FFA curve reflects the sudden enthusiasm for Iran hedges. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. More of the same except for the higher convexity in the near-term backwardation. BALMO and Mar26 contracts declining versus spot rise. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Also more of the same. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Small downtick in spot and increasing convexity in the near-term backwardation. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-04T09:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. Spot downdraft as predicted by the FFAs for the past week or so. The market did recognise the difference between temporary (VEN crude storage release) and sustainable Ax demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-04T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. A bit less convexity. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD25 USG/UKC FFA update. If spot continues to find support at these levels would not be surprised to see a small contango develop. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"No FFA updates today; scrambling to finish a report. Also will be in London at IP Week (not IE) for a couple of days so no posting early next week. #oott #tankers"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 We just posted our analysis on the impact of Venezuelan imports on the US Gulf refining system and coker throughput on Substack (link in bio). It's entitled "Dos Amigos" since there is more at work here than just Venezuelan flows. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641"
X Link 2026-02-09T07:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FFA Markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker Report posted to Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page report). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://t.co/ITv3nEB5ud We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Panama bunker sales declined by 8.5% yoy in Nov from a robust [----] performance due to 3.6% fewer calls yoy and smaller stem sizes. The HSFO share of fuel oil sales is sliding below 27% for [----] after an outsized 32.2% share in [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001585789398929887 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001585789398929887"
X Link 2025-12-18T09:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. The BALMO has been trading above spot for a couple of days giving rise to a near-term contango. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Now back from IP Week so will post some charts from Monday's report on US Gulf refiners and Venezuelan crude imports. Primarily this is a story about improved coker utilisations and reduced imports of unfinished resid from higher Venezuelan intake. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021916664866943074 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021916664866943074"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Mexican export situation becomes acute as the Dos Bocas refinery continues to improve runs but this is a conservative forecast. Tula & Salina Cruz offer more utilisation upside on the potential completion of their coker installations. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN The "Dos" part of the title relates to the remarkable collapse in Mexican crude exports as production continues to slide and as refining recovers. The IEA is forecasting that Mexico becomes a net crude importer by [----] but we have run some crude mass balance scenarios. #oott"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Coker capacity constraints should limit PADD3 Venezuelan crude imports to [---] kbpd assuming continued losses in Mexican crude exports to the region. Texas Gulf refiners would run the majority of VEN crude. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Offsetting flows do matter and most of the 0.27% increase in global crude tonne-mile demand (over three years) is from higher PADD3 utilisations and imports. Lower unfinished resid imports would remove 0.1% from this. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The "Dos" part of the title relates to the remarkable collapse in Mexican crude exports as production continues to slide and as refining recovers. The IEA is forecasting that Mexico becomes a net crude importer by [----] but we have run some crude mass balance scenarios. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Although the BALMO dropped by $3.6k/day yesterday the near-term contango is lingering. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We excluded this chart from Monday's report since it was focused on PADD3 but a similar Venezuela vs Mexico dynamic emerges in Europe as it increases Venezuelan crude intake. Spain would be the principal driver of this. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The Dec BALMO extending yesterday's move. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-12T11:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Panama bunker sales declined by 8.5% yoy in Nov from a robust [----] performance. The HSFO share of fuel oil sales is sliding below 27% in [----] after an outsized 32.2% share in [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-12-18T09:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot has now spent [--] trading days in the same $3k/day range which is extraordinary for a market at 94-95% utilisation. The FFA market remains unimpressed with the front end of the curve continuing to steepen. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-18T10:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. As spot continues to move higher the front end of the curve is signalling an extended move for the remainder of the year (five days in the Baltic calendar). #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-18T10:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Farewell narrow 13-day trading range we hardly knew ye. FFA market acting accordingly to the move lower although 'tis the season for BALMO weirdness. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-19T10:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. Spot has followed the early-week BALMO path closely which is now indicating a near-term peak in spot. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-19T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In addition to OPEC+ returning [--] mbpd of AG crude production since March a sharp drop in AG crude demand boosted Nov export volumes and added fuel to the VLCC rally. An upset at Kuwait's Al Zour refinery added [---] kbpd while extended maintenance at KSA's SATORP and Ras Tanura refineries contributed as well as fading direct crude burn. Al Zour has restarted one of its two afflicted CDUs and SATORP maintenance has ended along with other AG regional work. As crude intake recovers seasonally and with OPEC crude cut reversals on hold crude export availability should ebb by [---] mbpd through March."
X Link 2025-12-19T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We discussed the AG crude fundamentals on Friday but if only there had been another sign of what was coming. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2025-12-23T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. No comment since it is Christmas.🎄 #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2025-12-24T08:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Happy New Year (unless you are still a VL supercycle believer). Meanwhile a contango was inevitable after a $90k/day earnings downdraft. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-07T11:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. Given the fixture & delivery lags VLs are typically the first to peak in winter followed by Sx and then Ax in response to the imminent peak in global crude runs. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-07T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. As discussed yesterday this contango has been about re-equilibrating TD3C to other VL routes and dirty sectors. It has been in place since Friday but received a boost yesterday from VEN headlines. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-08T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The jump in the TD20 FFA curve is now suggesting that spot stabilises immediately when the WAF differentials and near-term fundamentals may not support this. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-08T11:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yesterday we discussed the wide TD3C v TD22 differentials but another spread that requires re-equilibrating is the massive Suezmax premium to VLs. Again both the TD3C contango and TD20 backwardation reflect an expected realignment. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET TD3C AG/China FFA update. As discussed yesterday this contango has been about re-equilibrating TD3C to other VL routes and dirty sectors. It has been in place since Friday but received a boost yesterday from VEN headlines. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET https://t.co/dPmJIBavNx TD3C AG/China FFA update."
X Link 2026-01-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the start of the year. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-09T10:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Re-equilibrium status. The jump in TD3C AG/China is closing the wild differentials seen following the earnings rout. Markets are approaching median spreads and equilibrium. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the start of the year. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET https://t.co/x96ySYa1Gw TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot TD3C realignment continues as the route was severely undervalued relative to other VL routes and Suezmaxes at the"
X Link 2026-01-09T10:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Updated VLCC AG availability if you have any questions about the recent movement in spot earnings. Will be interesting to see if this week's spot rebound will bring availability back towards the median [---] level. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2026-01-09T10:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. As the crude routes re-equilibrate from the year-end craziness the spot TD3C impulse may be slowing but the front-end FFA enthusiasm remains. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-12T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@VKMacro @olaharaldmoen1 USG C5/naphtha export availability is constrained near [---] kbpd on runs/yields and much of it flows to Asia. To the extent that they use LTO as a diluent this too is constrained in the near-term so taking from Europe and mostly Asia flows"
X Link 2026-01-12T11:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It is always more complex but there are those who can balance global naphtha flows across the dark and white fleets and those who cannot. Trying to intuit the answer on your own is probably not the best approach. Another partial derivative is displaced Russian naphtha that heads to Asia on dark vessels reducing AG/Asia flows on compliant vessels. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010680013486424145 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010680013486424145"
X Link 2026-01-12T11:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. With the slowing in TD3C spot gains the FFA curve came in a little yesterday but with the FFA market all loved up again today we'll see. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Once we get past our weekly report we will complete our comprehensive analysis of the US Gulf refining system under additional Venezuelan crude volumes. Note the impact of sanctions/waivers on historical VEN imports by refiner. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-14T11:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. More of the same. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-15T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot to $100k/day but the FFA curve came in slightly. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-16T10:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The collapse in CPC pipeline flows has sparked a mad panic for light/sweet barrels in the Atlantic (WAF) steepening the Brent backwardation and widening Brent/Dubai. The CPC security situation has also sent TD6 CPC/Med to $130k/day. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012113697057997302 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012113697057997302"
X Link 2026-01-16T10:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Working on a VEN report at the moment. One of our favourite charts reflecting the aftermath of Chvez' socialist "Bolivarian Revolution" which sliced Venezuelan per capita income by 75% to near sub-Saharan levels. Note the relative performance to the rest of Latin America. #oott #tankers https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013583802832957874 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013583802832957874"
X Link 2026-01-20T12:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From our upcoming PADD3/VEN report. An incremental [---] kbpd of VEN imports would require 6-7 Afras or about 3-4 weeks of [----] Ax/LR2 deliveries. This excludes the offsetting declines in COL crude and MEX crude & resid imports. Compare and contrast this to the massive and immediate Ax/Sx demand impulse to move 30-50 MB of VEN crude from storage to refiners. They are not the same but some cannot differentiate between the two. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015724863348965528 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015724863348965528"
X Link 2026-01-26T09:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. A burst in chartering volumes yesterday prompted a jump in spot TD3C maintaining FFA market enthusiasm. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-14T10:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot to $120k/day but considerable market debate about this week's direction. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-19T10:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Small downtick in spot convinced the FFA curve to come in a bit. The TD3C BALMO print is interesting in that both TD20 WAF/UKC and TD25 USG/UKC BALMOs are below spot. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-20T10:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Another downtick in spot has prompted a parallel shift lower in the FFA curve from Feb onwards as the BALMO remains sticky. Note the price action in TD20 WAF/UKC. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-21T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The BALMO trading below spot was a hint as spot TD20 has reversed sharply hitting the BALMO/Feb/Mar contracts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-21T10:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"That's right 3-4 weeks of Ax/LR2 deliveries. If European refiners import their previous [---] kbpd of VEN crude then that requires [--] Suezmaxes or [--] weeks of [----] Sx deliveries. That excludes the offsetting flows of other heavy/sour crudes since European imports are flat. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016126801773289829 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016126801773289829"
X Link 2026-01-27T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on t-h-a-t site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-10-01T19:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some confusing posts over the weekend about the Cass Freight Index which is at the lowest since the pandemic -- not the GFC -- but still a grim number. Curiously the index has become less correlated to US diesel demand over the past three years. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975118467255693542 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1975118467255693542"
X Link 2025-10-06T08:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And yet LRs remain lacklustre at best. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI Diesel prices ease amid export surge West of Suez markets are facing record #diesel exports from Asian and Middle Eastern producers as low and stable East/West spreads encouraged #arbitrage flows. This greater supply is now applying pressure on West of Suez prices and cracks. https://t.co/u5XFTa7oWd Diesel prices ease amid export surge West of Suez markets are facing record #diesel exports from Asian and Middle Eastern producers as low and stable East/West spreads encouraged #arbitrage flows. This greater"
X Link 2025-10-08T10:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-10-08T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on t-h-a-t site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-10-22T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-05T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The FFA markets page from last week's Weekly Product Tanker report. If you read it you would know that we have been discussing for weeks the coming winter seasonality for Atlantic MRs including their annual pre-Thanksgiving theatrics. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988190028497899944 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988190028497899944"
X Link 2025-11-11T10:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Also the Short-term Outlook page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report (link in bio). We have been constructive for weeks but need to remain balanced in our assessments. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-13T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-12-03T18:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🚨 US MONTHLY REPORT 🚨 We just posted our latest US Monthly Oil Market Report with September EIA data on t-h-a-t site (link in bio). It includes a granular 23-page analysis covering demand crude & refining trade inventories and inter-PADD movements. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $VLO $PBF $PARR $PSX $MPC $DINO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997991752150429953 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997991752150429953"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key Observations page from Monday's Monthly US Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-12-11T11:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TC14 USG/UKC FFA update. As discussed in our Weekly Product Tanker Report for some time the market knows what happens to US Gulf refining in Jan/Feb. Pumpers hyperventilating over every green tick on a broker FFA screen not so much. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-12-12T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-12-17T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Out of the [--] vessels sanctioned by OFAC yesterday for Iranian involvement here are the [--] vessels that are above [--] kdwt and not asphalt carriers. Includes one Afra and one Pana bringing average dwt to [----] kdwt. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001933382653989176 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001933382653989176"
X Link 2025-12-19T08:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The four vessels sanctioned by OFAC on Wednesday for Venezuelan involvement. The ROSALIND was already UK OFS sanctioned. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-02T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2026-01-14T19:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Substack (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. An uptick in spot but interesting that the BALMO gave up much of its premium to spot as the rest of the curve moved higher. Even odder with the curve continuing its move today suggesting spot gains. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-22T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD20 WAF/UKC FFA update. The spot down move continues but the FFA curve caught a bid yesterday almost on the same order of magnitude as TD3C. Probably in sympathy with the jump in TD25 USG/UKC. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-22T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Another downtick in spot but the BALMO has now given up all of its premium to spot and now trades at a discount. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-23T10:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Downdraft in spot but the BALMO remaining flat to spot. We'll see. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-04-16T16:23Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements
"The FFA markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report. Again a consistent theme on the coming winter seasonality for Atlantic MRs including their annual pre-Thanksgiving antics. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-13T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key Observations page from yesterday's European Monthly Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-11-14T11:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Updated rig count and frac spread count charts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2026-01-24T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Spot erosion has continued but interestingly both the BALMO and Feb contracts have traded up to $100k/day. The BALMO can be volatile near end-month but this is notable. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $BWET"
X Link 2026-01-27T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The EIA went medieval on its WTI price forecast in today's STEO release. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:14Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the site-that-must-not-be-named (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-19T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The FFA markets page from yesterday's Weekly Product Tanker report. As we said TC2 UKC/USAC surged in one of the most-telegraphed moves of the year in keeping with FFAs and its annual pre-Thanksgiving drama. Cue stupid memes. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-20T10:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key Observations page from Friday's Monthly US Oil Market Report. Each month we highlight interesting elements in the recent monthly data. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-11-24T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"No Weekly Product Tanker Report today. Attending to some family medical things today. Will try tomorrow. Meanwhile last week's Short-term Outlook page was generally on target especially the LR1 move. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-11-26T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 We just posted our analysis on the impact of Venezuelan imports on the US Gulf refining system and coker throughput on Substack (link in bio). It's entitled "Dos Amigos" since there is more at work here than just Venezuelan flows. #oott $VLO $PBF $CHV $PSX #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020762590826336641"
X Link 2026-02-09T07:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We suspect that over 95% of retail tanker investors on here have never experienced the other side of a tanker cycle. So they are clinging to the "stocks are wildly undervalued on a P/NAV basis" narrative while believing in unrealistic sell side PTs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-12-07T11:48Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements
"This is the product tanker investment hypothesis in its entirety -- replacing Russian gasoil from further sources sending utilisations to 99% and earnings to $250k/day. By now it has become an unquestioned mantra in the market. One small problem #tankers $ASC $HAFNI $STNG"
X Link 2022-11-18T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🧵 to describe what is happening here An LR completing discharge in Rotterdam on [--] Jan when the US/UK airstrikes started had four days to make a ballasting decision near Gibraltar #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-01-25T12:47Z [----] followers, 20.7K engagements
"🧵 This chart reflects what happened in the AG VLCC market last week as owners withheld vessels and stopped offering into AG cargoes on regional threats. VL earnings doubled as the supply curve shifted left against an inelastic demand curve. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-06-23T07:21Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements
"If you are expecting $100k/day VL earnings then the fundamentals suggest something else. Of course anything is possible with triple-digit vols and sentiment but a shift in IND/CHN med/sour sourcing would add a maximum of 2.2% to dwt demand for the white/lt grey compliant fleet. With recent complaint dirty fleet utilisations in the mid-80s this suggests a $10k/day increase in VL earnings. Those $100k/day expectations would require a 9% jump in demand (1 btm). This is the maximum impact because this demand increase assumes the following: 1/ 100% sanctions compliance 2/ No improvement in the low"
X Link 2025-01-14T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"About 85% of Chinese product exports remain in Asia mostly ASEAN. Chinese export cuts in 2021-22 led to the region sourcing from AG/WC India. Resumption of exports means replacing [---] kbpd of [----] nm barrels with [----] nm ones. Asia clean import TM demand declines. #tankers"
X Link 2023-01-03T15:49Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements
"Last weekend we received an insightful DM reassuring us that rational retail investors do exist on this site but that we see all of the crazies. So true. Many of them are still frothing at the mouth about the coming multi-year $100k/day VLCC supercycle. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2024-12-13T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂 @DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂"
X Link 2023-07-16T08:48Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"@DrawingSlim @MakaiMarine There are many left You just only have to tweet about the LR2 orderbook to find them out 😂"
X Link 2023-07-15T13:50Z 16.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report (link in bio). If you have been reading it you would know that we have been becoming increasing constructive on the clean tanker market especially LRs and Pacific MRs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-03-14T10:46Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements
"Chart from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report. Clean tanker supply set to overwhelm demand later this year. And no LR2s trading dirty will not make all of the supply boo-boos will go away. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-05-30T08:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Todays OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-03-13T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We love seeing sell side [----] estimates for clean tanker stocks. They are absolutely hilarious and are a complete fantasy. This is why we say that the sell side will be boiling the retail frog slowly this year as they are forced to come to grips with the eroding S/D balances. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-28T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Todays five OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-04-16T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just a reminder of where we are with average clean earnings in case all of the breathless posts on percent changes have you confused. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-14T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just a reminder at this point of the clean tanker cycle NAV and P/NAV are virtually meaningless valuation metrics. So interpreting discounts to NAV as "undervalued" and lauding share repurchases at below NAV as genius are misguided at best. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-11-06T11:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every time we update this chart it just keeps getting worse. So it was amusing to hear the pumpers at MM Week blow kisses at owners for being so smart & conservative. Conservative as in [---] mdwt ordered so far in June. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-06-27T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Working on our next post updating clean tanker supply. (Oh dear God). An early glimpse here. Deliveries in 2q24 were the lowest in [--] years and on a percent of fleet basis in over [--] years. After this hilarity ensues. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-06-21T09:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Owners can recover their LR2 cleaning costs before reaching the Mozambique Channel. This size of reversal in the Ax/LR2 spread has typically pulled 5-10% of the total LR2 fleet back to clean. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-01-31T11:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just a little weekend reminder that the BCTI is a flawed proxy for clean tanker TCE earnings being reflective of a fleet that existed [--] years ago. This week's 31% advance reflects a bounce off of abysmal levels while Handy routes TC6 & TC23 comprised 72% of it. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-11-23T09:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our latest SS post on the Red Sea impact on clean tanker demand. Including LR2s cleaning up the net utilisation increase is 2.3% which is consistent with avg clean earnings settling into a low-40s/day equilibrium. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-26T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"EIA conspiracy theories abating and @T_Mason_H provided an great overview of the EIA survey regime & the differences between the wholesale outflows of EIA product supplied (PS) & final retail demand. Still if mogas demand is near [---] mbpd how is PS off by so much"
X Link 2022-08-08T11:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jumps in the TD3C AG/China and TD20 WAF/UKC FFA curves from Wed to Fri are about right considering the 2% increase in dwt demand for the White/Lt Grey fleet from the shift in China/India sourcing. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-01-13T12:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Out of todays [---] UK OFS Russian sanctioned vessels [--] were below [--] kdwt and [--] were already OFAC sanctioned. Of the remaining 93: [--] VLCC [--] Sx [--] Ax [--] Px [--] MR [--] Hs Here is the list of Sx/VL from our fleet database. We did not update any of the names"
X Link 2025-05-09T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We have just posted our second Weekly Product Tanker Report on that site (link in bio). We added a short-term outlook at the rear of the report and updated it with new fundamental charts (below). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-11-27T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"VLCC FFAs (TD3C AG/China) responding to recent rebound in spot. Unlike previous failed spikes the BALMOs are leading the move more enthusiastically bringing up the front end. 4q24 contracts more muted. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2024-09-09T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"First of two SSt posts on clean tanker supply. This one covers the remarkable surge in clean ordering and the impact on deliveries and how popular narratives on yard capacity might not apply to clean. #oott #tankers $STNG $ASC $HAFNI Please see link in profile"
X Link 2023-09-26T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is how it is likely to happen. Clean rates will rise in 4q23 as they do (almost) every year. Pumpers will breathlessly post green arrows every day. Retail will once again take clean tanker equities to levels inconsistent with fundamentals declare victory. #tankers"
X Link 2023-07-17T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Oh no we did it again 😱 Another monthly forecast that proved too bullish ($48.9k/day v 46.4k act). Being called bears & insults stem from wildly-unrealistic rate expectations among clean longs fuelled by the sell side & pumpers. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-03-01T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Context on Fridays OFAC Russian sanctions list. List included [---] tankers above [--] kdwt [---] excluding shuttle tankers FSUs and yard numbers [--] crude [--] VLs [--] Sx [--] Ax [--] Px [--] Prods/Chem [--] LR2 [--] LR1 [--] MR [--] Hs #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-16T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Last week we suggested that clean rates would rebound within days. They did. An update on where they are. Our target on this move is still $42k/day but we will see. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-04-17T08:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Words fail us. Ok maybe bizarre. Or delusional. We would love to see what fantasy clean tanker demand numbers they are using to justify the junior analyst cell input of exactly 10.00% for revenue growth in [----]. Will be negative btw. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-05-06T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For VLs that departed Asia following the start of hostilities and have not fixed they have an important decision coming due. Over the next few days these vessels will be emerging from the Malacca Strait and will need to decide whether to bypass the AG entirely and ballast into the Atlantic. By choosing not to offer into AG cargoes they may have made that decision already. To the extent that owners go full herd mentality and ballast towards COGH en masse the Atlantic Basin would become over-tonnaged hitting VL Suezmax & Afra rates there while AG rates remain elevated. It would take 1-2 months"
X Link 2025-06-23T07:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on Soup Stick (link in bio). Market Summary page below discussing a more tempered rebound following the Atlantic excitement of last week. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-12-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Out of the [--] vessels in yesterdays OFAC sanctions list only [--] were above [--] kdwt. The [--] chems/prod tankers represent less than 0.1% of their combined fleet. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-04-11T08:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Errors galore in the weekly EIA data relative to the monthly series (not pristine either) but for gasoline these have switched violently from over-estimation to under-estimation. July will probably be over [---] mbpd. Note the summer [----] errors that helped cause this"
X Link 2022-08-04T12:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Pareto finally recognising what we have been saying for [--] weeks -- tanker 4q24 seasonality will be underwhelming relative to history due to fundamentals. Good thing they are mentioning this 15-25% later on tanker stocks. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-10-22T10:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Much of the problem with analysing the dark fleet is definitional. Most of what you see is the dark fleet being defined as any tanker that carried a naughty cargo during the past 2-3 years. Under this approach the dark fleet appears quite large as with this S&P Platts infographic. Take the [--] VLs and [--] Sx putatively in the Iranian trade. Even accounting for massive waiting time for STS operations payment delays and discharge delays this number of vessels could move over [--] mbpd of Iranian crude and condensate twice the observed volume of current exports. So this begs the question of just how"
X Link 2025-03-04T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China update. BALMO suggesting a near-term rebound in spot. The question has not been whether it would rebound but by how much before reversing. This will tell a lot about the state of the market. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2025-06-10T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Have been posting 1-3 clean FFA charts per week for years but none have triggered equity longs as severely as this one. Tells us just how badly longs want to believe that $90k/day LR earnings are the new Red Sea equilibrium (nope) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-02T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Speaking of deeply-flawed research from brokers this is aging as well as last years $250k/day Russia forecast from Clarksons Securities. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-19T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If this does not remind you of Paretos famous [---] extra MRs for Russian diesel to Brazil narrative it should. It is just as intensely stupid. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI #Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://t.co/rcsjPCTvNt #Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://t.co/rcsjPCTvNt"
X Link 2024-03-05T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Hafnia sees Red Sea disruption adding demand for an extra [---] MR tankers #shipping #RedSea https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/hafnia-sees-red-sea-disruption-adding-demand-for-an-extra-160-mr-tankers/2-1-1608136 https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/hafnia-sees-red-sea-disruption-adding-demand-for-an-extra-160-mr-tankers/2-1-1608136"
X Link 2024-03-05T14:58Z 47.4K followers, [----] engagements
"LRs remaining elevated from the Red Sea situation but MR/Hs collapsing from the refining fundamentals that govern the other [--] mbpd of clean trade that does not transit the Red Sea as global crude runs drop [--] mbpd. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-01-04T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China update presented without comment since everyone is an expert now. One of the beauties of being a forecaster for a living is that you can say "I don't know" every once and a while. This is one of those moments. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW"
X Link 2025-06-16T10:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Absolutely. Also Chinese clean export quotas are the constraint. Will limit refinery utilisations & still boost clean stocks by 3-4 days. Unless demand overwhelms forecasts would expect high stocks to force larger second quotas. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI Be careful with this because it has issued full year quotas for some refineries something it has not not done in the past. It means later import quotas in the year will be smaller than other years. China does not have 60% more capacity. https://t.co/hHbz6lkDS2 Be careful with this because it has issued full year quotas"
X Link 2024-01-02T10:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We mentioned our Feb forecast miss ($2.3k/day too high) but here is our forecast for Mar/Apr ($37.4k and $40.2k respectively) assuming RS crisis continuation. Expect a bounce from these levels then settling below $40k. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-03-06T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We have been discussing this here since early-March when news of the first OPEC+ cut reversals emerged. Depending upon the volume of Atlantic barrels displaced higher OPEC+ production is highly likely to be negative VLCC tonne-miles. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai spread OPEC+ has made early gains from its phased [---] Mbd output rollback with the Brent-Dubai EFS now at $2/bbl for the first time since October [----]. This price spread shift discourages Atlantic Basin exports into Asia supporting #OPEC+s objective https://t.co/qyD6PswylN OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai"
X Link 2025-06-11T10:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OPEC+ widens Brent-Dubai spread OPEC+ has made early gains from its phased [---] Mbd output rollback with the Brent-Dubai EFS now at $2/bbl for the first time since October [----]. This price spread shift discourages Atlantic Basin exports into Asia supporting #OPEC+s objective to rebalance regional flows. Since February West of Suez flows to Asia have fallen by over [---] Mbd led by declines in Latin American and West African exports. The intervention signals a tactical recalibration aimed at stemming non-OPEC+ competition and reinforcing pricing power in key demand centres. Stay ahead of the"
X Link 2025-06-11T05:22Z 16.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The EIA weekly data is deeply flawed so doing year-over-year or 2-year comparisons is terribly misguided & meaningless. No mogas demand is not below [----] levels. This is just a wonky data point and even the EIA STEO sees a [--] mbpd summer so no conspiracy. EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as all the other empirical data suggests otherwise. https://t.co/WwOHoPp5sT EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as"
X Link 2022-08-04T12:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"EIA reported that the U.S. implied gasoline demand on a 4-week basis is now below [----]. This raises far more questions than answers as all the other empirical data suggests otherwise. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529321-us-gasoline-demand-falls-below-2020-but-there-are-far-more-questions-than-answers https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529321-us-gasoline-demand-falls-below-2020-but-there-are-far-more-questions-than-answers"
X Link 2022-08-03T23:45Z 74.2K followers, [---] engagements
"As for a pair of Iranian dark trade Aframaxes going to demolition at [----] years before their fifth special survey this has been the average demo age in stronger market environments. #oott #tankers $TNK $INSW $TNP"
X Link 2023-10-03T09:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"During previous OPEC production cuts when Brent-Dubai collapsed from the loss of heavy/sour exports refiners ran a lighter crude slate and cut coker feed rates. The refining dynamics are different this time. #oott #tankers 🧵"
X Link 2023-08-14T11:55Z [----] followers, 30.6K engagements
"Modest Chinese export quotas for only [--] million tonnes of clean products is a recognition that Chinese refiners have only so much scope for pushing products into a soft ASEAN market. Implies that its crude runs will remain weak. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $FRO $DHT"
X Link 2024-09-20T09:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on le site interdit (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf). The Product Tanker Fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-03-12T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With VLCC fleet utilisations likely to drift into the low-80s this summer before yes recovering those sell side expectations for $85k/day average earnings in 4q24 would require global crude runs 1.0-1.2 mbpd higher than anyones forecast. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2024-07-05T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"LR1s still under pressure although the Feb BALMO equalling spot suggests that this is a resting point as well as a stable March contract. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-20T10:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Despite all of the 🚀 and 🔥 emojis clean earnings have only nudged higher on stronger LR rates offset by MR and Handy spike reversals. Sure earnings will move higher over the next six weeks but some perspective required. #oott #tankers $ASC $TRMD $HAFNI"
X Link 2023-10-16T11:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(sigh) $STNG presentations. This cannot happen on the same time-space continuum zero percent fleet growth and 6.7% tonne-mile growth in [----]. This is due to the simplistic scrapping scenarios in the footnotes when modelling s/d is about finding equilibria. #tankers $HAFNI $ASC"
X Link 2023-10-12T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TC5 FFAs responding to the current spike reversal. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-07T09:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Still depending upon the percentage of EoS/Europe flows rerouting the situation is adding at most 3-4% to clean dwt demand. Once the panic subsides & market re-equilibrates this is worth $5-8k/day -- not $40k/day. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-01-25T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Todays OFAC Iran-related sanctioned tankers. From our fleet database. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-03-20T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Slide from Kpler webinar on TMX yesterday. Disagree on Scenario [--] with too much TMX crude to LAX. Scenario [--] however is consistent with our findings and the tanker demand outlook from our report four weeks ago. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $DHT Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN prodn committed to US refiners the obvious choice for filling the TMX is cutting USG re-exports. This would make TMX a net negative for crude TM demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK https://t.co/V9xB8MEdfw Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN"
X Link 2024-05-29T08:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Table from our TMX report updated for Indian volumes. With [--] mbpd of CAN prodn committed to US refiners the obvious choice for filling the TMX is cutting USG re-exports. This would make TMX a net negative for crude TM demand. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $TNK"
X Link 2024-05-08T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Finally got fed up with the pivot table in the weekly Baker Hughes rig count file and did some Python coding on Saturday to get it into a dataframe and a proper database. Have been upgrading our US crude production models and US Gulf crude export forecasts. #oott #tankers $FRO $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-08-11T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"These vessels would represent a 2.5% jump in the clean operating fleet. Depending upon deployment & loading volumes this offsets half of the current Red Sea impact on dwt demand. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/traders-press-on-with-curious-trend-of-cleaning-up-vlccs-for-product-cargoes/2-1-1662827 https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/traders-press-on-with-curious-trend-of-cleaning-up-vlccs-for-product-cargoes/2-1-1662827"
X Link 2024-06-19T06:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. May BALMO contract suggesting a near-term rebound in spot after its recent spike reversal. Probably reflecting enthusiasm for upcoming June nominations. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2025-05-13T10:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Did we say back below $18k/day. Never mind $17k/day our fleet-weighted clean average is now flirting with $16k/day and the Red Sea status has not changed. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-02-11T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Todays submarine stack is a comprehensive analysis of the product tanker market balances (link in bio). As it turns out ordering more ships than the market needs has consequences. Who knew #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-08-08T09:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"MR earnings beginning to roll over a bit including Atlantic triangulation despite the TC2 UKC/USAC theatrics. We will address the fundamentals behind the Atlantic and AG rates rises shortly. #oott #tankers"
X Link 2023-08-30T11:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We dont do equities but presumably these support levels might be a better place to buy clean tanker stocks than when you were called a p*ssy 2-3 weeks ago. #tankers"
X Link 2024-09-05T10:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Back from IP Week (not IE) and working on the Weekly Product Tanker Report today. In the meantime will leave this chart here and see if anyone can recognise the significance of it. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-02-26T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not issuing the Weekly Product Tanker Report today due to severe unforeseen circumstances. This will also delay the release of the European Monthly Oil Market Report"
X Link 2025-07-23T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TD3C AG/China FFA update. Note what the BALMO and May contracts were saying on 28Apr and the shift lower since Friday. The market may be coming to grips with the demand dynamics that we have been discussing. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2025-05-08T09:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Since the sanctions excitement started in Jan the FFA curve for TD3C AG/China has shifted higher by $12k/day. This is consistent with [---] mbpd of RUS/IRN replacement barrels from AG/Atlantic being placed on the compliant fleet. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN"
X Link 2025-02-20T11:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For the tiny handful of you on this site who do not believe that the Red Sea will be closed for years to come this is the Europe tonne-mile impact of its reopening. Occurring during a period of 6% annualised fleet growth in 2h25 would be entertaining. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-17T13:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Four weeks ago we said that the sell side had little choice but to start cutting estimates based upon deteriorating fundamentals. After many called SEB & Fearnleys stupid and irrelevant now Pareto DNB et al have joined the fray. Oops. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls out their estimates into [----] they had to decide: Promote absurd tanker demand numbers against massive supply or Reign in their estimates & TPs (hint: they are just getting started) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls"
X Link 2024-10-24T09:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As we suggested earlier as the sell side rolls out their estimates into [----] they had to decide: Promote absurd tanker demand numbers against massive supply or Reign in their estimates & TPs (hint: they are just getting started) #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI We were wondering when someone on the sell side would finally recognise that these stocks are trading at 15x [----] EBITDA. Expect more downgrades (eventually) as analysts cannot justify lofty outlooks going into [----]. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $FRO $DHT $INSW https://t.co/Yx2U10Satu We were wondering when"
X Link 2024-09-27T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry been finishing up a client project. Similar LR spike as discussed earlier. Weaker Afras creating wider spread this time. Not sure this will add to cleaned-up LR2s since most recognise this a short spike but will stay clean. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-03-19T09:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our 9-page Weekly Product Tanker Report includes a page on product tanker fundamentals with charts and commentary that relate to that week's rate environment. Charts will change a bit each week to reflect market dynamics. Link in bio. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859898560239550646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859898560239550646"
X Link 2024-11-22T09:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry we will release our Weekly Tanker Report a day late. Got caught completely off guard from the Python coding requirements for the new FuelEU regs that started this year. Market summary page from the report with some FuelEU comments. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-08T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As we suggested yesterday we expect a bounce soon perhaps taking clean earnings back to the low-40s/day. After the LR rerouting turmoil then pulsing through the MR sector the clean market is finally settling into an equilibrium. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-04-12T08:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our estimate based upon LR2/Ax spread is 5-10% but 7-8% seems reasonable (29-34 LR2s). This represents 2.5-2.9% of clean operating fleet. Europe rerouting worth at most 3.6% of total dwt demand EB naphtha & WB vegoil another 1%. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3% to 7% of the total LR2 fleet) could make the switch. Stay ahead of the markets. Request a demo here: https://t.co/EZWnvyDzo3 #kpler LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3%"
X Link 2024-02-06T10:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"LR2 productivity peaked in January suggesting a significant market shift. [--] to [--] vessels (3% to 7% of the total LR2 fleet) could make the switch. Stay ahead of the markets. Request a demo here: #kpler https://www.kpler.com https://www.kpler.com"
X Link 2024-02-05T15:52Z 16.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Table from upcoming post. If you cannot understand why tonne-miles & dwt demand are different you may want to reassess your understanding of product tanker fundamentals. Also explains why brokers are focused on TMs only. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-02T10:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just a reminder: the clue is in the title and its adjective. Short-term. Clean tanker deliveries in 2h25 are looming so near-term constructive on seasonality medium-term negative on supply. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker Report (link in bio). If you have been reading it you would know that we have been becoming increasing constructive on the clean tanker market especially LRs and Pacific MRs. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN https://t.co/VL7gJOcxMM Short-term outlook page from Wednesdays Weekly Product Tanker"
X Link 2025-03-17T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"EU ❤ Guyana crude. Refiners from the core EU-6 have taken increasing levels of Guyana crude. Along with USWC & USG refiners their combined share has reached 75% of the current [---] kbpd of production. EU imports picked up after Liza [--] with its Unity Gold crude (33.5 API 0.42%S) that proved a suitable lower-sulphur replacement for Urals. Since its late-2023 start-up Payara Gold crude (28.0 API 0.58%S) has displaced AG grades. All of this has occurred in the context of lowering sulphur content to aid the production of ULSD In the wake of the EU-6 losing [---] kbpd of Russian diesel. We have"
X Link 2025-01-24T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Looking at this chart: Industry veterans: sigh Retail: These lines are going up and staying high forever #oott #tankers $STNG $ASC $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI cc: @AyusoValue"
X Link 2024-10-21T09:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just posted our latest Weekly Product Tanker Report on the verboten site (link in bio to access the full nine-page pdf) despite the local utilitys best efforts to thwart it with two power outages. The fundamentals page is below. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#tankers How oil market How retail clean professionals tanker longs look at product look at product inventories inventories"
X Link 2023-05-25T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"According to press reports strikes have closed four of France's six refineries for the moment. We have modelled the impact of [--] weeks of strikes at these four plus slow restarts as seen last Autumn. Utilisations hit 52% in March and runs collapse by [---] kbpd. #tankers"
X Link 2023-03-21T12:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our clean tanker demolition forecast based upon IMO number and survey dates. Remember the right chart any time Gibson or another broker blathers on about the percent of the fleet over [--] years old. It is a moronic metric for clean used for only one purpose. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFN $DIS.MI"
X Link 2025-06-03T10:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AyusoValue Alternatively scrapping one older vessel and delivering one NB vessel increases the fleet capacity by an effective 1.5-2.0 vessels despite "zero fleet growth". This is before the effects of cleaner hull & eco engine since older vessels sail 0.5-1.0 knots slower"
X Link 2023-08-29T10:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Today's report is on the prospects of plateauing Chinese oil demand and the impact on its refining system (link in bio). Goes into specifics on EV penetration and the evolving structure of Chinese refining. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI"
X Link 2024-10-15T11:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Left: excerpt from last months product tanker report (link in bio) Right: Apparently we gave owners too much credit for slowing down. 3Q24 orders represent two years worth of demand. #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-09-23T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"fwiw models say Red Sea equilibrium takes this avg to low-40s/day (vs low-30s pre-Houthi). LR1s are about there with potential further downside to LR2s (low-50s) & MRs (mid-30s). #oott #tankers $ASC $STNG $TRMD $HAFNI $DIS.MI"
X Link 2024-02-19T10:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The problem with this assessment of the OPEC+ cuts & the tanker commentary that you post is the sticky assumption that oil demand will grow [---] mbpd next year per the IEA latest. This is nonsense and with tomorrows IMF WEO release this is should start to change. #tankers"
X Link 2022-10-10T13:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In celebration of todays crude tanker equity price action the TD3C AG/China FFA curve from yesterday. The comparison with 20Dec is interesting before the sanctions narrative caught fire. #oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO"
X Link 2025-01-10T12:14Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"Was delayed in getting the second clean supply post out since my partner was in the hospital for two weeks. She is out now and recovering ok"
X Link 2023-10-26T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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