#  @JohnHuber72 John Huber John Huber posts on X about stocks, investment, business, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +288% - [--] Month [-------] +328% - [--] Months [---------] -29% - [--] Year [---------] +59% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -22% - [--] Months [---] +75% - [--] Year [---] +46% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.11% - [--] Month [------] +0.29% - [--] Months [------] +2.50% - [--] Year [------] +5% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #3335 [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [financial services](/list/financial-services) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [nfl](/list/nfl) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) #190, [investment](/topic/investment), [business](/topic/business), [in the](/topic/in-the), [growth](/topic/growth), [ai](/topic/ai), [link](/topic/link), [future](/topic/future), [$goog](/topic/$goog), [$aapl](/topic/$aapl) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@billbrewstertbb](/creator/undefined) [@marketplunger1](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@libertyrpf](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@natstewart5](/creator/undefined) [@thetikr](/creator/undefined) [@michaeljburry](/creator/undefined) [@turtlebayio](/creator/undefined) [@jacksonwharf](/creator/undefined) [@stevemagness](/creator/undefined) [@brkdaily](/creator/undefined) [@brownmarubozu](/creator/undefined) [@trungtphan](/creator/undefined) [@dirtcheapstocks](/creator/undefined) [@dsmoak98](/creator/undefined) [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined) [@valuedontlie](/creator/undefined) [@jrogrow](/creator/undefined) [@compound248](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)](/topic/$fcnca) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) [Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)](/topic/$cnk) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Lowes Companies Inc (LOW)](/topic/$low) [Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)](/topic/$fnd) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)](/topic/$cmg) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)](/topic/$wfc) [Basis Cash (BAC)](/topic/$bac) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM)](/topic/$bsm) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Dillards Inc. (DDS)](/topic/$dds) [Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)](/topic/$abnb) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@_inpractise @JanithaCharaka @indianwhale But the problem with building them is it takes too long and the winner will be the one with biggest scale; i.e VRM cant match CVNA unit economics at 1/10th the size and same will be true in UK or anywhere. So my view is theyre in a race to get most supply as fast as possible" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1438508093936062475) 2021-09-16T14:20Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "Interesting that FCNCA tangible book value per share has grown from about $200 to $1600 over the past decade (23% CAGR) and the stock trades at book value implying little premium for the mgmt quality capital allocation decisions the deposit franchise a rebound in SVB fee income etc. I think big deals are likely behind them for a while but Fifth Third and Comerica are merging (regionals can still expand) and there will be a downturn again when FCNCA has always played offense. I estimate they're buying the BMO branches for around 1x the NII they'll be able to collect from those deposits and" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1979977068986200568) 2025-10-19T18:24Z 48.4K followers, 23.2K engagements "I wrote some thoughts on two different types of bank investments asset sensitivity and FCNCA's valuation (link in bio)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1983196029676871699) 2025-10-28T15:35Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements "Yeah I think of these as intermediate term investments. Sometimes durable mature big caps get thrown out due to either company specific issues or short term macro fears. AAPL in [----] ORLY [----] META [----] NFLX [----] and GOOG 2025; also XOM VLO GE MMM and JPM were multibaggers over the past 3-5 years). I missed most of these but the good news is the market seems to offer a few of these each year. UNH might possibly be an example of this currently. Your point on options is interesting because many of these stocks are high quality lower beta and thus have cheap options." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012991520043892826) 2026-01-18T20:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Adobe might be just fine but Im old enough to remember when people said that iPhone and Macs were fun for consumers but the enterprise world was locked into BlackBerry. Similar story with Google apps (docs sheets etc) vs Excel Sometimes the consumer tools move upmarket $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT https://t.co/53vq3BtN4l $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014042231439507954) 2026-01-21T18:27Z 48.4K followers, 24.9K engagements "I remember you writing about it many years ago. You had this one figured out. One reason I like recurring revenue businesses with no debt because there is a built in call option: swapping debt for equity. The ability to take on debt to buy out owners is a nice arrow in the quiver when the stock is cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014184218813685790) 2026-01-22T03:51Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "FCNCA took a big bite of its shares over the past [--] months:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014700217786913279) 2026-01-23T14:02Z 48.4K followers, 16.4K engagements "One of the greatest track records of all time. And he did it his own way: diversified cheap hated stocks hundreds of investments over the years a repeatable process numbers based didnt focus on moats per se didnt need catalysts bought cheap stocks and waited. Understood the basic concept that the market is short term focused and if you had patience you had a big edge. My main takeaway from Schloss isnt his strategy per se though I like it. But it is that he did things his own way with an independent mind. Didnt worry about what his friends or his clients thought about his stocks. He was close" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015818534735978686) 2026-01-26T16:06Z 48.4K followers, 49.6K engagements "Some simple math on productivity gains. I think it's commonly assumed that a 10% increase in productivity is easy to achieve with AI and for some companies it might be but unlikely for the overall market. Non-tech S&P operating margins are around 9% and the median margin for all public US companies (including tech) in the US is under 10% but let's assume 10% op margins: This is $100 and $10 of profits or $90 of costs or $1.11 of output per dollar of input costs. A 10% increase in productivity takes this business to $1.22 output per $1 input: either sales go to $110 with the same $90 of costs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015832161585181119) 2026-01-26T17:00Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "When I see this picture I see an illustrated explanation for why a commodity priced at say $110 with a cash production cost of $30 is not a long-term sustainable circumstance. Lots of people with lots of money are interested in that $80 gap and despite supply fundamentals which do seem compelling this excess profit doesn't last forever $SLV I've been attending the VRIC (Vancouver Resource Investment Conference) for nearly [--] years. Mostly to take the temperature of the metals and mining industry for my investments in the sector/industry. It's a great show and the investor turnouts have" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015845510477738063) 2026-01-26T17:53Z 48.4K followers, 30.6K engagements "Yes its really impressive and I think demand for Claude code and others will keep growing fast. I bucket this in the wholesale demand category which is of course real demand but my question is about how it gets monetized. My thinking is these productivity gains will accrue to customers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016136719548969085) 2026-01-27T13:10Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "New post with some thoughts on AI productivity shortages and gluts:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016173059002998852) 2026-01-27T15:34Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@greg_ip @jturek18 To me its an Occams Razor. Momentum begets momentum. Speculation. All kinds of fundamental reasons get attributed to try and explain it and some of that might have gotten things going like kindling but none of those reasons seem to justify the magnitude of the move" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016224480645751195) 2026-01-27T18:59Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "WSJ article highlights the major push toward production increases with gold and silver where they are currently: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016270833321177195) 2026-01-27T22:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@JasonLiebel @treiner5 Yep it usually is one of the largest expenses these companies have. Not including it is akin to not counting the labor expense at Chipotle or Starbucks" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017340326155866429) 2026-01-30T20:53Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "@AgAuUOil @Ole_S_Hansen Youre correct. It was panic selling and forced liquidations. And gold isnt much different same moves as silver just less extreme. I would not call either safe havens at current prices that are 3-4x production costs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017476087551332369) 2026-01-31T05:52Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "META plans to spend $125b on capex this year. GOOG $180b (+100% growth yoy). Capex now 40% or more of expected sales at both. Just stunning. My hunch is hyperscalers will slow down their rapid pace of capex spending sooner than the market expects. They won't be capital light but I think capex takes a big step down in a few years or less as capacity catches up to demand. Will be painful if that occurs but that might be a buying opportunity for LT investors. Stocks will be a lot cheaper FCF will be much higher and their core businesses are in most cases still dominant. The stocks will get" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019209960366768569) 2026-02-05T00:42Z 48.6K followers, 39.3K engagements "$AAPL has returned 6x since 2016: 3x was from multiple expansion 1.6x from earnings growth and 1.3x from buybacks (AAPL reduced shares by 25% since '16). Biggest factor was multiple but buybacks are a big tailwind. What are your favorite share-eating companies" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1461324977660116993) 2021-11-18T13:26Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "I wrote some thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal the impact on movie theaters and a few notes on DIS's valuation $CNK $MCS $DIS $NFLX" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998029649079902576) 2025-12-08T13:59Z 48.5K followers, 11.2K engagements "@AyusoValue Nice what [--] questions did you prompt it with" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020563991852945794) 2026-02-08T18:22Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@lhamtil Agree Its an awesome business. Although you need the studio content to tie it all together. Good news is Disney+ profits are quickly growing. Would be nice to sell ESPN" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020940634052239611) 2026-02-09T19:19Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "@DayumDawgg I dont disagree with any of that. But thats partly why the stock is cheap. And hopefully past is past regarding the political nonsense. Parks moat is still one of the best businesses out there and Disney+ now ramping profits maybe we get to see an inflection point. Well see" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021045290200072306) 2026-02-10T02:15Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "They are super sophisticated and have almost always been on the cutting edge of technology. Their warehouse network and supply chain was world class very early on. But this tech prowess doesnt mean the stock is worth 45x either most efficiency gains accrue to customers in retail" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021401281483465107) 2026-02-11T01:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "Completely agree. The farming analogy is what I was thinking about last night when I read that piece. The machine would have been viewed as existential to farm workers (and it was) but they didnt imagine all the new jobs that were created for them and their fellow humans because of it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021640795963502931) 2026-02-11T17:41Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "@The_Pro_Invest Yes great point. I remember when both MCO and FICO traded at 10x. How times (and narratives) have changed" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021641666156015926) 2026-02-11T17:45Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "I think your point on stickiness is very valid. I would be questioning whether you think pricing power will be stronger or weaker in the future. I wouldnt be totally dismissive of the threat given what I have seen Claude and others can do already in this realm. I do think these companies have a strong position. But I also think the stocks were probably a bit overvalued https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021657247001317691) 2026-02-11T18:47Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "@JacksonWharf @firstadopter History suggests the exact opposite in 100% of previous technological revolutions" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021657763735384156) 2026-02-11T18:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "Compounders are largely more expensive these days but when a stock trades at a 20% FCF yield and is buying back shares it has the same per share compounding potential as a 20% ROIC company that reinvests all earnings. Some thoughts:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943699021467443242) 2025-07-11T15:48Z 48.6K followers, 100.9K engagements "New post: updated thoughts on Netflix and theaters (CNK and MCS); and an earnings update on FCNCA. Analysts like precision but it can lead to overemphasizing asset sensitivity and expense growth. I think this overlooks the potential operating leverage here a few years out" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015464502267937105) 2026-01-25T16:39Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "Walmart trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) valuation. [--] P/E and [--] P/FCF for a business that grew less than 4% CAGR last decade. $WMT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2018691242637295950) 2026-02-03T14:21Z 48.6K followers, 24.2K engagements "I continue to think $NFLX buying WBD might lead to more content in theaters not less. Sarandos appeared in front of the senate this week and reiterated this view he gave recently: $CNK $MCS" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019396482986828275) 2026-02-05T13:03Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "New Post: Some thoughts on the "AI Fear Trade" along with some case studies and comments on some stocks I think offer good value in quieter corners of the market outside the headlines. The indiscriminate selling (and buying) of the last few weeks reminds me of Covid (when everything internet related was bought and everything else sold) and also of [----] when tech stocks crowded out the market for stocks like BRK and AZO which got very cheap). Large caps are still very expensive in my opinion but the knee-jerk narrative-driven selling is probably an overreaction" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022325628872040821) 2026-02-13T15:02Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "Im referring to public stocks. He does sometimes pay up when he can control the cash flow but even with full acquisitions there have been lots of smaller deals done at 10-15x or less. I estimate the most recent deal he did (buying the chemical business from OXY) is well under 10x normalized earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022716400377159826) 2026-02-14T16:55Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "$MUSA is a 10-bagger in [--] yrs (26% CAGR). Great example of "boring" stock in low growth industry (gas stations) that created huge value (like NVR AZO ORLY). [--] key ingredients: consistent buybacks + persistently below avg valuation. The boring part helps sustain the latter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1769915904832184364) 2024-03-19T02:36Z 48.6K followers, 52.2K engagements "@UnionistJackson @chandan_maloo I think some are likely to rerate over time but if the stock trades at a 12%+ FCF yield and you get all of it as div/buybacks then you don't need any increase in multiple to get adequate returns. And even modest low single digit growth ends up giving you mid-teen returns" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800668580352303384) 2024-06-11T23:16Z 48.5K followers, 30.4K engagements "Costco is up 3x in the last [--] years but who would have thought that BJ's Wholesale would be the better performing warehouse club store (up 4.5x over that period) $COST $BJ" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1900581777279746501) 2025-03-14T16:16Z 48.5K followers, 87K engagements "New post with some more comments on portfolio strategy current opportunities and the importance of being flexible I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1930262253082751482) 2025-06-04T13:55Z 48.6K followers, 33.6K engagements "$SRBK announced a second 10% buyback finishing the first one in about [--] months. I like tracking the thrift conversions that announce buybacks as soon as they are eligible. $BVFL is another one that only took [--] months to buyback 10% of their shares before announcing a second one $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1943164305785889071) 2025-07-10T04:24Z 48.5K followers, 12.1K engagements "Cowboys continue to disappoint but at least Jerry has Comstock. Lots of interesting well developments happening in the western Haynesville $CRK $BSM https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1986873345372266623) 2025-11-07T19:08Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "Despite the narratives California is allowing for increased oil production. $CRC is wasting no time in submitting applications for new wells in California (some have already been approved). A new law (SB 237) took effect 1/1/26 and allows for up to [----] new well permits annually (up from virtually zero in recent years) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011451844216684693) 2026-01-14T14:54Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "An illustration of a world class moat (with world class pricing power) $DIS https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020936118623969635) 2026-02-09T19:01Z 48.5K followers, 14.5K engagements "@TheBroskiUSA @firstadopter Not if 50% of humans are out of work (Unless I guess the AI robots develop their own economy with their own buying power 😂) But yes this fear is way overblown. Humans will adapt and remain gainfully employed over the long run" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021631351334875590) 2026-02-11T17:04Z 48.5K followers, 10.9K engagements "Illustration of the power of a royalty business with a nice moat: this was only a very modest growth business but it required no capital investment (similar to Sees Candies) which frees up all earnings to be paid out via dividends and buybacks. Final ingredient is low/reasonable valuation during much of those earlier days which increases the yield on the buyback. In addition to $41 of dividends over this period NATH bought back about 20% of its shares between 2003-04 and another 30% between 2009-13 Low growth + high ROIC + low valuation + good capital allocation is the formula that helped" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014164837895463317) 2026-01-22T02:34Z 48.6K followers, 36.8K engagements "First time in five years that Charter didn't lose video subscribers. Will be interesting to see if this is a blip on the radar in a longer term downtrend or if cord cutting has leveled off $CHTR" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017339070645461190) 2026-01-30T20:48Z 48.6K followers, 10.6K engagements "@CapitalObserver I was wondering the same thing about $NVR 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022479812384764321) 2026-02-14T01:15Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "I think Google is up roughly 100% since it was downgraded for losing the AI narrative. These narrative shifts are about as wide as the stocks gaps between [--] week highs and lows. And its probably better to buy the narratives low and sell them high Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold" Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold"" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020938797480018240) 2026-02-09T19:12Z 48.6K followers, 27.2K engagements "The debate on whether the SPGI/MCO ratings regulatory moat is immune to AI should not the main concern here (imo). If only a minority of your revenue (20-30%) comes from a segment that can be easily replicated with AI it could have a major impact on your business. The ratings moat can be fully intact but maybe the $20k CapIQ product (which has massive margins) is way overpriced. Im not suggesting this is my view but that is what I would be thinking about as a much greater likelihood than upsetting the ratings moat. My hunch is these companies will adapt and remain good businesses long term" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021629971060371947) 2026-02-11T16:58Z 48.6K followers, 32.6K engagements "Link here: with thoughts on $NRP $DIS $PBI $DOUG $SLV and a few other ideas: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022479185105588527) 2026-02-14T01:13Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements "I think this is the #1 reason why Buffett hardly ever paid more than [--] P/E and often paid 10x or less for stocks. Getting more cash in the near term reduces the reliance on being right about the very long term which is what you need to be when paying high multiples Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022483052883050628) 2026-02-14T01:28Z 48.6K followers, 168.5K engagements "@stevemagness @pvtjokerus Our team did [--] mpw in the summer and early fall in HS. Obviously not the norm but I knew many others who did as well. I remember reading about Don Sage doing [---] mpw and that always inspired me to want to do more at the time" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022878345654899066) 2026-02-15T03:39Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "@trengriffin Repair shops are having a hard time getting skilled labor which combined with rising prices for parts is making repairs so expensive (causing more cars to be totaled and sent to $CPRT). Boyd Group has talked a lot about how lack of labor requires insurance rate increases" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1672931735280001024) 2023-06-25T11:36Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "$SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've repurchased 9% of the shares in the last year. 10-q just came out and they bought another 126k shares in April (about 1% of SO); nice to see since banks often almost always pull back on buybacks whenever there is volatility. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1923395406756528427) 2025-05-16T15:09Z 48.4K followers, 22.1K engagements "@leevalueroach There is no real informational advantage in large caps but that doesnt mean large caps cant get very mispriced. JPM is up 3x in [--] years. Sometimes the edge is just being willing to look out a few years when everyone else is unwilling to look past a few quarters" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012983822321598849) 2026-01-18T20:21Z 48.4K followers, 14.4K engagements "Smithfield's is taking one of the best long-term small cap compounders off the market. [--] years ago Nathan's Famous was a $3 stock. Since then they've paid $41 in total dividends and the stock now is valued at $102. @natstewart5 and I were recently talking about the power of owning royalties which is that they can grow without capital which allows owners the rare opportunity to extract cash from a business while also benefiting from growth. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too business model is sometimes under-appreciated $NATH https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013976405978063151" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013976405978063151) 2026-01-21T14:06Z 48.4K followers, 37.6K engagements "Peter Lynch had a chapter in his second book on them but the best thing to do to learn is to study a recent conversion. I'd recommend picking one that converted sometime in the last few years and read the prospectus. BVFL had a second step conversion in May [----]. The prospectus has excellent detail on how the conversion works how the funding works etc" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015137675368374477) 2026-01-24T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017081279192154145) 2026-01-30T03:43Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements "Interesting how much greater the net flows into silver ETFs vs gold this month considering the assets in gold ETF's are roughly [--] times the amount in silver $SLV $GLD People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move https://t.co/GmKQCiupuz People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017083862644359349) 2026-01-30T03:54Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@lhamtil That year when the Giants went to the World Series I remember there was a stretch in that postseason where if they actually pitched to him and he didnt hit a home run it was almost surprising" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2018047409398407230) 2026-02-01T19:42Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@CapitalObserver Same with Amazon which is already negative ttm (counting the 20b SBC as an expense)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019170771013365836) 2026-02-04T22:06Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "I think so. A slowdown in capex will likely be the result of the realization that the returns on all that spending was lower than hoped. I don't think that will be viewed favorably but could be a buying opportunity. A recent past example was Amazon realizing they had excess retail warehouse space in [----] and slowing spending. The excess capacity was viewed as bad news but it sowed the seeds of a recovery in retail margins and free cash flow later https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019226391342915673) 2026-02-05T01:47Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "They'll have around $100m in cash left after debt paydown at year end so they'll have one or two more diet seasons quite a big ask $WTW" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/629304092834271232) 2015-08-06T14:52Z 48.5K followers, [--] engagements "$GOOG has (maybe deservedly) gotten a lot of criticism over the years for its capital allocation policies. But can anyone name one other company that actually increased the pace of buybacks in March Given the changes at the top I think we'll slowly start to see more of this" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1255483561995632641) 2020-04-29T13:06Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements "@petershk @IveyContrarian Yeah the thing about speculation is it usually helps build something of lasting value for someone else. Most speculators lose but whats left is a railroad system airlines cars telecom infrastructure the internet etc. and then real companies are built as a result" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1360230624204906498) 2021-02-12T14:13Z 47.9K followers, [--] engagements "Growth of data reminds me of the explosion of websites/traffic in the earlier days of the web. Growth isn't constrained by factors that normally limit the size of most everything else. Chart from $AMAT investor day h/t @SeifelCapital" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1404972611503788039) 2021-06-16T01:22Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements "$GOOG showing off their operating leverage that has always existed but was often hidden. Expenses flattish + gross profits growing at a fast clip has created a lot of value. Result is ROIC at decade highs. h/t @theTIKR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1454435677224030217) 2021-10-30T13:11Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "$CPRT isn't a flashy company but it keeps putting up flashy returns on capital. One of my favorite companies on Saber's watchlist. Great mgmt dominant leader w/ barriers to entry growth great economics. I can't think of a growth business more (endearingly) boring than Copart" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1461372181762424833) 2021-11-18T16:34Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "I like the Nick Sleep chapter in Richer Wiser Happier. Interesting to read about his evolution from a (very successful) bargain hunter to an extreme focus on quality and a select few types of business models (specifically those w/ cost advantages that get shared with customers)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1491477836737265670) 2022-02-09T18:23Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "Nice summary of why $CPRT owns their land. Conservatism leads to a lasting business. Similar to Buffett's logic for holding excess cash: durability. Geico policyholders know claims will always be paid and Geico knows Copart will always have capacity to auction their vehicles" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1568287430519791622) 2022-09-09T17:17Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "$BKNG outlining how paying employees with stock is an actual expense. So many companies talk about "FCF" and even net income that excludes this very real expense. Bravo 👏" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1629160925134573569) 2023-02-24T16:46Z 48.6K followers, 51.5K engagements "Many people have asked why $HD and $LOW can't just replicate $FND's selection advantage. Another clip from this Tegus interview Alex cited is useful. HD wants to own less inventory. They don't want to carry [----] flooring SKU's. Direct sourcing would actually lower ROIC at HD $FND - "When we started buying from CFL they were doing $10 million a year in manufacturing sales. The last year I was there they did over $400 million. Organizations that you help build from the ground up are going to be extremely faithful to you." https://t.co/21zoenqlJ2 https://t.co/e43XrMPcBj $FND - "When we started" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1631142754502733825) 2023-03-02T04:01Z 48.3K followers, 32.4K engagements "Rare to see mgmt team that shares in the upside (common) but also downside (uncommon) and very rare to see a request to reduce salary. My favorite part: the request was done without fanfare (pg [--] of proxy) Patrick & his team are quality managers but also quality people. $HIFS" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1647601808099930114) 2023-04-16T14:04Z 48.3K followers, 99.1K engagements "Really interesting comments from Buffett & Munger on oil in 2008; sheds light on why they like $OXY so much. Basically: production capacity peaks before demand does which will lead to "some very interesting consequences" h/t @BrkDaily (who sends great snippets like this daily)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1661765215606697985) 2023-05-25T16:04Z 48.3K followers, 39.3K engagements "Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years ago and that has climbed to 20% today. That has been the biggest tailwind in salvage. And it seems likely that this ratio only keeps climbing as complexity of cars increases Modern cars are easier to total than in past years. https://t.co/QX68IknKfD Modern cars are easier to total than in past years. https://t.co/QX68IknKfD" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1672285266206179333) 2023-06-23T16:47Z 48.1K followers, 100.7K engagements "$CPRT's new CFO does a nice job summarizing their [--] key advantages: 1) Network effect: the most buyers leads to ever expanding list of sellers (305k cars available on their site right now) 2) Huge barrier to entry: good luck getting permits for a new junk yard 3) Long-term view Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years ago and that has climbed to 20% today. That has been the biggest tailwind in salvage. And it seems likely that this ratio only keeps climbing as complexity of cars increases Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1672294543604023296) 2023-06-23T17:24Z 48.3K followers, 24.9K engagements "Surprising fact for the day: $FCNCA has outperformed all the big tech stocks over the last [--] years: slightly ahead of MSFT and AAPL and far ahead of AMZN and GOOG. And it still only trades at around 7.5x the earnings I expect them to make this next year" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1688903118958759936) 2023-08-08T13:20Z 48.3K followers, 23.8K engagements "Frank Holding continues to buy shares of First Citizens $FCNCB $FCNCA Nice to see given the already sizable insider ownership (insiders own over $2 billion worth of shares)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1709258635191206203) 2023-10-03T17:26Z 48.3K followers, 10.5K engagements "Interesting comments on Costco retail in general making big profits from a struggling Baltimore store; also notable he says he invests in two types of companies: great ones (which hes known for) but also how interested he is in Ben Graham cigar butts. https://open.spotify.com/episode/5bSdpI3CYrpCvBNXVQBHFYsi=bbryeuGFRrmJSkmdOGcK3Q https://open.spotify.com/episode/5bSdpI3CYrpCvBNXVQBHFYsi=bbryeuGFRrmJSkmdOGcK3Q" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1719893106990964792) 2023-11-02T01:44Z 48.3K followers, 19.9K engagements "Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747975549778051573) 2024-01-18T13:33Z 48.6K followers, 84.7K engagements "$PHM doing best at what all builders are trying to do: more options less land more buybacks: the $NVR plan Share count down 50% in [--] yrs; and with its cheaper P/E the buybacks went further for PHM's owners: 32% total CAGR last [--] yrs vs 22% NVR 20% last [--] yrs vs 19% NVR" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1752523667404124240) 2024-01-31T02:46Z 47.9K followers, 32.3K engagements "New post: A Value Investor's Bank (link in bio)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1752699025089020294) 2024-01-31T14:23Z 48.4K followers, 43.2K engagements "New post with some thoughts on the valuations ROICs and the rising capital intensity of the formerly capital light tech companies (link in bio) $GOOG $MSFT $META" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1787820848918733088) 2024-05-07T12:24Z 48.6K followers, 249.4K engagements "Short update post on $NRP $DR.TO and $FCNCA along with a few other thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1825892589729423573) 2024-08-20T13:48Z 48.3K followers, 22.7K engagements "@ThomasBraziel Looking forward to your ideas On the capital call loans thats a big part of SVBs business (now $FCNCA). I think theyve had just one single loan go bad over the history of that lending product" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1856297942279213230) 2024-11-12T11:28Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "I wrote this article back in May but should update this chart. $AMZN and $GOOG together guiding to $175b capex next year alone. Together the big [--] will be close to $300b next year. Buffett talks about how it's so hard to get decent ROIC on $300b portfolio (which is invested once). Imagine investing this much in one year and then doing another $300b next year and again the year after that etc. In a few short years there will be $1 trillion of invested capital. Key question for all these companies is not what the ROIC has been (which is world class) but what will it be on these hundreds of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887873404251799749) 2025-02-07T14:37Z 48.6K followers, 141.9K engagements "@tierrapartners $MRP and $FOR have different earning power potential though. $LEN structured the spinoff so that MRP's upside is very capped (i.e. Lennar keeping for itself any excess returns on capital that would normally accrue to the land developer). Imo MRP deserves a major discount to book" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1890092332042842284) 2025-02-13T17:35Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "$NKE is an example of how even a great company can be a risky investment at a certain price. It's a great brand but even after a 60% drop it's around 20x for a business that grew top line 6% last [--] years. Might turn out to be a good stock but Nike is example (however unlikely) of the possible risks that I see in a number of the world's best companies when paying today's high prices. "Fish where the fish are" - Charlie Munger 10-years ago the fish were in a different spot (large cap quality growth stocks). Today there might still be a few fish left here and there but that hole has largely" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1890136801844633970) 2025-02-13T20:31Z 48.6K followers, 76.6K engagements "The NHL found something awesome with their all star format. But its awesome because the players care. This makes the fans care. When players treat the all star game like exhibition (at best) its not interesting for fans. When I watch these hockey games it looks like everything is on the line. Its not the format its the effort and passion that make it fun I think its more fun to complain about the nba than to actually watch it. Crazy cancel all star weekend and lets just give everybody a break since were so miserable around this time I think its more fun to complain about the nba than to" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1892034259424247823) 2025-02-19T02:11Z 46.2K followers, 10.7K engagements "New post: Cinemark's new buyback announcement thoughts on theater operating leverage and valuations and a quick review of the Fairfax preferred stocks (link in bio): $CNK $MCS $FRFHF" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1898082594467528831) 2025-03-07T18:45Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "Found this surprising when I saw it: $AMZN has underperformed the S&P YTD [--] yr [--] yr and [--] yr periods. Says nothing about what future performance will be but still surprising given the reputation as one of the Mag 7's. Also [--] yrs ago in April [----] it would have been hard to imagine a better positioned company than Amazon to handle the onslaught of demand and the shift in retail to ecommerce during Covid. This is also an interesting case study regarding capital cycle theory. Amazon (by its own account) overestimated demand and after a whopping $300 billion of capex over the last [--] years it was" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914497730530996670) 2025-04-22T01:53Z 48.6K followers, 42.8K engagements "Another example of how bargains often hide in plain sight even among the largest stocks in the market (i.e. even large caps can get mispriced). $JPM is knocking on the door of a 3x in [--] years:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940535095108292622) 2025-07-02T22:16Z 48.6K followers, 43.9K engagements "Great point by @BrownMarubozu: if you're $MEG shareholder you presumably like the Christina Lake asset. Why give it up to CVE at a cheap price when oil is also at low levels With $SCR you get a much larger stake in the future cash flows from that asset which will be sizable" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1962698545061908741) 2025-09-02T02:06Z 48.3K followers, 12.9K engagements "This is a remarkable outcome. I think it has more to do with capital allocation and starting valuations. I felt like ABNB had a better model because it didnt need Google to acquire customers but BKNG runs its business with more efficiency far less stock based comp and has used its FCF to buy back shares. ABNBs buyback doesnt create nearly as much value because so much of it is soaked up by the SBC. That portion of their buyback is essentially a cash compensation expense Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink). $ABNB $BKNG https://t.co/oYeMGzzVnI Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink)." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967585157826691477) 2025-09-15T13:43Z 48.6K followers, 73.9K engagements "KMX approaching GFC level lows on P/TBV" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1971680019736064299) 2025-09-26T20:55Z 47.9K followers, 10.3K engagements "I think a lot of the underperformance of EEM and China over the last [--] years is due to much lower returns on capital. Some of those economies have faster growth but the growth required so much capital that the returns were minimal (e.g. an extreme example is the ghost cities in China: they helped GDP grow but didn't create any value). A lot of the larger companies in those indexes are similar; they help fund the growth of their economies but soak up so much capital that investor returns are low" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1973002276001206332) 2025-09-30T12:29Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements "FCNCA underperformance YTD. And it extends to both asset sensitive & liability sensitive; big and small" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1973463181633921171) 2025-10-01T19:01Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements "@BubleQe I agree with the advantages Canadian oil has but how can we say no decline with mining There are decades of reserves but still at least a small decline rate no" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1978590307106050076) 2025-10-15T22:34Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements "@bearlyai @TrungTPhan If I could only get VCs to fund my Costco runs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1982120935357403447) 2025-10-25T16:23Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements "Its a pretty conservative bank in terms of their underwriting. Theyll never earn the highest roe but they have been a steady compounder over many decades. They wont replicate the growth organically. But bargain purchases are a part of their strategy and I would expect that to continue when opportunities arise" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1983340535717691553) 2025-10-29T01:10Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements "I was reviewing UAA results recently and I reminded myself how difficult it is to have an apparel brand and stay on top. Nike has done it but Id say just about everyone else rides a wave and then struggles. And even Nike isnt immune. I agree that LULU could turn it around and the stock could be a winner from here but there are so many different options for Lulu type clothes that are much cheaper and just as good. Too hard pile right now but interesting to see how it goes" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1986448542882226477) 2025-11-06T15:00Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements "Its possible that $GOOG is already up 40% or even 50% from Berkshires cost basis in Q3" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1990247709643853971) 2025-11-17T02:36Z 48K followers, 97.6K engagements "Everyone is arguing about depreciation schedules. In the end the free cash flow will be all that matters. If the hardware doesnt need to be replaced as often it will show up in higher cash returns on capital. If it does need replacing sooner FCF will continue to be lower. Well all know soon enough what the returns on the spending are" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1990964682782286023) 2025-11-19T02:05Z 47.9K followers, 12.7K engagements "@patientinvestt Roughly 40% of UBERs cash flow comes from a reserve it takes for future insurance costs. While we dont know exactly what that cash cost will ultimately be it is a real cash cost. Stock is roughly double that valuation if you count the insurance reserve as an expense" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1992028120069890311) 2025-11-22T00:31Z 48K followers, 10.4K engagements "@Aureliusltd28 Its much more expensive than 16x because 40% of Ubers cash flow comes from a reserve it takes for future insurance costs. Also some hefty SBC to deduct. Of course the stock still could be cheap just not 16x cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1992028916232421528) 2025-11-22T00:34Z 48K followers, 12.8K engagements "No they need to reserve more as they grow. They self insure a big piece of their business. Nothing untoward but its a real cost that Ive noticed some investors overlooking. Would be like ignoring the loss reserves a bank sets aside each year for loan losses. Both are deducted on the income statement and both are real costs but they are non cash now because the costs come in later over time" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1992297261250781573) 2025-11-22T18:20Z 48K followers, [---] engagements "Right. Just like an insurance company we book the expense today but we wont know actual cash costs until the claims come in. The reserve is similar to how a bank provisions for future loan losses: a non cash debit against earnings on the income statement and thus reverses in the cash flow statement but it is (or will be) a real cash cost eventually" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1992936401906663513) 2025-11-24T12:40Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements "Salesforce has a market cap around $220 billion. Salesforce CEO tweets about Gemini and Google gains about $220 billion in market cap in a few hours. An entire Salesforce worth of additional market value. In one sense it took Benioff [--] years to build that much value at one company and maybe [--] seconds to build that much at another 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1992984708708278383) 2025-11-24T15:52Z 47.9K followers, 78.7K engagements "These two paragraphs do a good job at summarizing some of the potential risks out there" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1993011652933931341) 2025-11-24T17:39Z 48.3K followers, 85.5K engagements "What a great blog post this was and not because its about Apple or because it aged so well; I think he makes great points about what makes a Buffett stock and what doesnt. Specifically his point on past price performance and its relationship to quality & value Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1993167343199899986) 2025-11-25T03:58Z 48K followers, 52.4K engagements "@dnbrwnjr @BenBajarin @kheksheyal Id always prefer the alternative. Employees can always buy stock with their own money. is a great example here. Pay employees in cash some choose to buy shares but share count is unchanged. Regardless paying employees in stock is a real expense http://SCR.to http://SCR.to" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1993466209174798491) 2025-11-25T23:45Z 48K followers, [----] engagements "Market is a discounting mechanism (perhaps you can buy one soon and if so how does that impact the competitive landscape) I dont have a strong view on this but the question NVDA investors have to ask is what is the runway for their monopoly When will competition come in The market moves quickly to discount these threats and that isnt irrational imo" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1993712948024422637) 2025-11-26T16:06Z 48K followers, [----] engagements "Munger buying coal stocks in his final year. An independent thinker and always learning right to the very end. Fascinating article by @GZuckerman" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1994055055788433600) 2025-11-27T14:45Z 48.1K followers, 39.6K engagements "@hectordiro @kadistock @GZuckerman @MohnishPabrai Mohnish might have introduced Charlie to the idea" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1994247802419913125) 2025-11-28T03:31Z 48K followers, [---] engagements "😂 Ive noticed this same issue occasionally (not often) with ChatGPT and Gemini. One recently overstated the acreage owned by a company Im looking at by 8x. It was also a random precise number (not a round approximation) which would make you think its legitimate. It quickly corrected it because I happened to know the true answer and called it out but because it is never in doubt its hard to recognize these mistakes. They are awesome tools but they also do a great job at doing what my grandfather used to say: speak with authority even when you dont know the answer. This freaking guy." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1996235269310152914) 2025-12-03T15:09Z 48.1K followers, 26.7K engagements "A while back we had a short thread on ROIC and FCF yield and while its more important to focus on the FCF yield in low growth businesses that dont reinvest. I wrote a post with some more thoughts on this and some examples" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1996924990566838411) 2025-12-05T12:49Z 48.3K followers, 67.6K engagements "Yes the only way to offset inflation is to increase the returns on capital. Growth won't do that necessarily. But pricing power will. Inflation impacts both high and low ROIC businesses; it's possible that either could offset it but only through increasing returns at the rate of inflation. Can happen at low or high ROIC" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1996932298420195706) 2025-12-05T13:18Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements "Titan about the sub that attempted Titanic tourism. Super interesting documentary on both the science and the human side. So many interesting behavioral and leadership observations/takeaways. What is the best documentary or docuseries you've recently watched on @netflix Or in the last year What is the best documentary or docuseries you've recently watched on @netflix Or in the last year" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998023131290865688) 2025-12-08T13:33Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements "Who will manage the stock portfolio is a question that Greg will need to answer soon and it will be interesting to hear what he says Todd Combs exit from Berkshire throws a spotlight on a big blind spot: who runs the $280B equity book and $380B cash/T-bill pile after Buffett Hes nailed CEO succession & culture but gone quiet on investment succession. After early talk of Ted+Todd vs the S&P weve Todd Combs exit from Berkshire throws a spotlight on a big blind spot: who runs the $280B equity book and $380B cash/T-bill pile after Buffett Hes nailed CEO succession & culture but gone quiet on" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998216331272102324) 2025-12-09T02:21Z 48.1K followers, 53.3K engagements "Yep great point. Also took on $20 million of debt from Salomon in the 1973-74 crash so he could have more firepower to load up on stocks Buffett doesn't time market but: - Shuts down fund at peak in [----]. - Calls dotcom top in [----] at Sun Valley. - Warns about speculative assets in [----]. - Managed to borrow billions under these terms. https://t.co/HyjSNhnaLY Buffett doesn't time market but: - Shuts down fund at peak in [----]. - Calls dotcom top in [----] at Sun Valley. - Warns about speculative assets in [----]. - Managed to borrow billions under these terms. https://t.co/HyjSNhnaLY" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998562247464071254) 2025-12-10T01:15Z 48.3K followers, 45.9K engagements "@AmirReihani87 It had it my head [--] but it was 20" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998562892556415286) 2025-12-10T01:18Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements "@calvinblissett @AdamB1438 Lowensteins book talks about it. Salomon didnt want to do it but based on Buffetts personal reputation they ended up agreeing to it" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998738061392232601) 2025-12-10T12:54Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements "GM is up 50% YTD and nearly 100% since April lows. The company has reported improving fundamentals but imagine someone on Liberation Day tells you that this sluggish car company that's facing tariffs intense competition and labor cost issues would double before the year is out. another example of how even large cap stocks can sometimes become coiled springs when they're beaten down" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998946676099219662) 2025-12-11T02:43Z 48.1K followers, 11K engagements "I'm reading @TSOH_Investing's Buffett & Munger Unscripted. Imagine the cost of tasking someone with the painstaking process of watching all the BRK meetings pulling out thousands of clips and organizing them by subject. Almost unfair that we get this for $35. Great work Alex" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1999109812336959585) 2025-12-11T13:31Z 48.3K followers, 39.9K engagements "@ToddWenning @mihaljevic @BillBrewsterTBB Absolutely. the $1b is ridiculous. I love the licensing of IP and wish they would have clarified some more on that at least generally. Instead of focusing on the investment. There is only one way that cash should be flowing in that relationship not two ways" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1999174157657845990) 2025-12-11T17:47Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements "Last month I commented on UBER's FCF being much lower than widely reported due to a big chunk of it coming from insurance reserve costs. @michaeljburry recently had a great post on how the actual cost of SBC is often understated both in the cash flow and the GAAP income statement. I think he makes a great point on a real cash cost that I think is often ignored. For companies that buy back shares to offset dilution the cost of that buyback is akin to actual cash compensation. What we often find is the cash cost greatly exceeds the stated cost when companies are growing (naturally as issuing" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2000978312730931290) 2025-12-16T17:16Z 48.3K followers, 100.6K engagements "@CapitalObserver @michaeljburry That is correct. But thats like any company that issues stock at a lower price. The money they spend on the buyback is the actual cost of mitigating that dilution. Basically theyre issuing low and buying back higher" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2000983786222498154) 2025-12-16T17:38Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "@Will45075251537 @michaeljburry No the expense is what it is. The buyback just explicitly shows the cash outflow (the actual cost to owners of issuing the stock given the current share price). Makes it easy to see how dilutive the stock comp actually was" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2001125430930133501) 2025-12-17T03:00Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "Correct the higher the stock goes the more expensive the share based comp was. No different than using stock for M&A. The buyback just highlights the actual cash cost of the SBC. It took $5.6b to keep share count flat. If you issue stock cheap and buy those shares at twice the price it is more expensive for owners. If you issue stock and it goes lower this is cheaper for owners" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2001277882551701653) 2025-12-17T13:06Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "@Leonbdecker Correct. The buyback just illustrates the actual cash cost of the stock that was given away. That is the whole point of this exercise. How much did the stock cost in actual cash" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2001361983589810520) 2025-12-17T18:40Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "@altcap Its not just the gas tax. Its the fact they are sitting on some of the largest oil reserves in the world and they dont let them drill. However SB237 is changing this and we should see permits increasing significantly next year" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2002404271925366896) 2025-12-20T15:42Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "Interesting find on a REIT that Buffett bought in his personal account back in [----]. He once said he would prefer to buy real estate directly rather than paying fees to someone else (a REIT) but he did make a number of REIT investments in those years especially liquidations @brettgardner_10 @chrisvirnig @sidecarcap @mastersinvest Can verify he took a stake in Burnham Pacific Properties in San Diego after old man Burnham hired an idiot to run it for him - https://t.co/M8s9paWMWd @brettgardner_10 @chrisvirnig @sidecarcap @mastersinvest Can verify he took a stake in Burnham Pacific Properties in" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2002583377149636659) 2025-12-21T03:34Z 48.3K followers, 29.9K engagements "California and Canadian oil fields have much lower decline rates lower maintenance capex and higher FCF than the Permian shale oil in Texas. Charlie Munger has invested in California oil fields at various times in the past and once told an interesting story missing the chance to really load up on Belridge Oil when it a big discount to liquidation. The stock ended up rising 30x before getting sold to Shell for $3.7 billion. That field once again trades at a discount to liquidation value with some interesting prospects ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2003194413888209198) 2025-12-22T20:02Z 48.3K followers, 15.3K engagements "All great points and agree. The IRRs can be similar if the capital allocation is good. The hard part for me is trying to underwrite what those returns will be whereas for a SAGD asset in Alberta that has a central processing facility built I view that as more predictable. But I absolutely agree that either can be great" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2003258743518040196) 2025-12-23T00:17Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "There are some major changes happening. A law was just passed that encourages drilling and will grant up to [----] well permits annually. They need the oil as one of the worlds top [--] largest economies (if it were its own country). The people there are sick of paying high gas prices when theyre sitting on vast reserves. But Regardless of politics the fact is the state consumes 1.5m barrels a day and they have to get it from somewhere" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2003450255044419708) 2025-12-23T12:58Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "Talk about a feel good story Louisiana guy sells his business and gives 15% of the proceeds to his employees. Average bonus per employee was $443k many of them hourly workers living paycheck to paycheck https://www.wsj.com/business/fibrebond-eaton-bonus-walker-30844d62st=UrhSvZ https://www.wsj.com/business/fibrebond-eaton-bonus-walker-30844d62st=UrhSvZ" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2004365264746422359) 2025-12-26T01:34Z 48.4K followers, 45.7K engagements "Paid $7 to watch Ravens/Packers what I thought was going to be a fun game only to realize that both teams had their backup QBs in. Clearly Im behind on sports news but it made me realize how mundane it is to watch the Chiefs without Mahomes the Ravens without Lamar Packers without Love etc like my interest goes from [--] out of [--] to about [--] out of [--] To watch NFL Week [--] you just need: Netflix Prime Video NFL Network Peacock/NBC FOX CBS ESPN To watch NFL Week [--] you just need: Netflix Prime Video NFL Network Peacock/NBC FOX CBS ESPN" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2005137937822871972) 2025-12-28T04:45Z 48.3K followers, 13.5K engagements "New post: some thoughts on a company that I think has a strong position in its market despite the negative sentiment" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2005671376028610950) 2025-12-29T16:04Z 48.3K followers, 13.8K engagements "@marcuswerther He was using leverage but even accounting for that his return on assets was still north of 60% that year" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2006422977626386857) 2025-12-31T17:51Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "@BourbonCap @ACapitalLP I think the oil price reaction is more likely bearish as the possibility of opening up that supply just dramatically improved. Venezuela sits on [---] billion barrels of crude reserves and Maduro has let their oil infrastructure crumble" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2007491607759859928) 2026-01-03T16:37Z 48.4K followers, 10.1K engagements "At oil companies a good portion of their costs are fixed so as prices fall their margins come down and vice versa. It is possible that this is good for big oil long term if they're able to get more volume out of Venezuela though that will take many years and lots of capital and to me is far from certain. I actually don't think this will be a big game changer for the price of oil over the long term" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2007804871563419931) 2026-01-04T13:22Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements "Agree. Ex interest (theyll be debt free this year) NRP earned $65 total FCF/share in 2022-2024. Average of $18/sh the past decade. They told me a primary reason for going debt free is to be able to capitalize on these inevitable bumper crop years. Their time frame is decades @ragingbullcap @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics NRP is a beautiful asset for long duration capital @ragingbullcap @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics NRP is a beautiful asset for long duration capital" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011433311995117611) 2026-01-14T13:40Z 48.4K followers, 23.3K engagements "I sort of disagree with the statement quality wins over time. It sometimes does but it is only if the stock is undervalued relative to its future cash flows. And sometimes quality can be risky (I generally think now is one of those times). I think value wins over time (not factor definitions of value but discount to future cash flows; which is also my definition of quality 😀). Also picking quality businesses is not our goal as investors (or shouldnt be) our goal is picking quality investments. Maybe stating the obvious here but just some thoughts after reading that passage" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011494363260727782) 2026-01-14T17:43Z 48.4K followers, 15.5K engagements "I wrote a post with more details on CRC the new SB237 law and the prospect of California production growth here: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/contrarian-low-cost-producer-at-a https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/contrarian-low-cost-producer-at-a" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011511742879154566) 2026-01-14T18:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "California has a cap and trade system which basically acts as a significant emissions tax on heavy industries (cement power plants refineries factories etc). This is one reason why CRC's carbon storage business is gaining some traction. It is in some cases cheaper for large emitters to pay CRC to store CO2 in CRC's pore space than it is to pay for the emissions allowance. I don't have a lot of conviction on this business segment yet but they did receive their first permit for carbon storage and they have valuable land and pore space needed for injection and storage (similar to NRP). The cap" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011513825280082103) 2026-01-14T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "@crowdturtle @RonadatylJake @DividendDynasty Yep gotta add that pesky compensation expense 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012299652926747043) 2026-01-16T23:03Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "The silver supply/demand case is compelling at first glance and I know a majority of production is mined as a byproduct but what about the 25% that is mined by pure silver miners. Why wouldnt they be ramping up production now with all in cash costs around $20-30 Silver at $80 per ounce feels shocking only if you look at it as a precious metal trade. If you look at it as a supply and demand problem the price move starts to look logical. Over the past ten years silver demand has grown structurally while supply has gone nowhere. Total https://t.co/hS1cwIBK4n Silver at $80 per ounce feels" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012352387827061079) 2026-01-17T02:32Z 48.4K followers, 10.6K engagements "@michaeljburry Ignore criticism from people you wouldnt take advice from - Aaron Rodgers (I think) Your work is some of the most interesting and original analysis in the entire investment community. Keep rolling" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012355524734431636) 2026-01-17T02:45Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@BillBrewsterTBB Stocks at all time highs often keep going and are sometimes still undervalued. Youre just getting started BB" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012374777239929307) 2026-01-17T04:01Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@AdamSchefter I don't think it was this play. I think it was the kneel down which looked awkward" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012753317240226224) 2026-01-18T05:06Z 48.4K followers, 15.9K engagements "@ACIPartnerhship 45% I wasn't following Fairfax closely then but I do remember the short attack. I didn't realize the stock was impacted nearly that much" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013300479803982076) 2026-01-19T17:20Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@TrungTPhan What amazes me about this throw is he's throwing off his back foot falling away in the snow and with the angle it probably travels over [--] yards. Crazy athleticism that guy has. kind of a bummer they couldn't finish it in OT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013301883176202534) 2026-01-19T17:25Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@thewinningdiff1 Also confirming that college football players dont really go to school 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013409960286171602) 2026-01-20T00:35Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Turned to AI to tell me which teams have gone 16-0 (IU would be the first since 1894). But interestingly it is either making a prediction or it knows the future" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013461003137134933) 2026-01-20T03:58Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Everyone watching this game or playing in it (including Brady as he says in the clip) knew this was a fumble. This was Bradys first Super Bowl year and I wonder how it would have changed not just this season but future Patriot super bowls had they not reversed this call "The Tuck Rule" January [--] [----] The [----] AFC Divisional Playoff #Patriots. #Raiders. https://t.co/gdOKHVlpkA "The Tuck Rule" January [--] [----] The [----] AFC Divisional Playoff #Patriots. #Raiders. https://t.co/gdOKHVlpkA" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013470418405921174) 2026-01-20T04:35Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Quality of earnings for a big part of the top of the index (namely big tech) has declined in recent years (as capex rapidly outpaces depreciation). This expense increase will hit the income statement over the next few years and can only be offset by accelerating sales growth or expense cuts elsewhere. Possible but I think forward earnings growth of these major companies might not be any better than the median growth rate of the index over the next 5-10 years. Combined with high current valuations it could be a recipe for pretty pedestrian stock returns over the next decade or so" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014179415664525711) 2026-01-22T03:32Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "@longwalkcapital For some reason I've noticed this pattern before where the stock drops on earnings and then recovers fairly quickly. The results (I thought) were excellent. They're always conservative but SVB is ramping up (34% annualized growth in Q4)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014724074337923114) 2026-01-23T15:37Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "@evantindell Not sure it exactly rhymes with your description but Netflix in [----] changed their tune pretty drastically admitted competitive pressures and subscriber count flatlined but they continued to talk about returning to growth and margin expansion and ultimately they were right" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014896702457623021) 2026-01-24T03:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Today was the second time the Broncos have lost an AFC championship game 10-7. The last time was thanks to a long field goal by Scott Norwood (but alas no one else remembers any kick that poor guy ever made) Winning a playoff game 10-7 is indeed Brady-esque Winning a playoff game 10-7 is indeed Brady-esque" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015578624053616991) 2026-01-26T00:12Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@backoftheenvelo His fund did grow over time but yes he paid out some gains from my understanding. But still would you invest in a security that paid you 15% dividends on average over [--] years Where do I sign" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015835916791677318) 2026-01-26T17:15Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "@argosyinvestors @TBinkowski44570 This argument is a major first world problem. Buying a stock that pays you a 16% dividend for [--] years is not a bad deal. Its also not Schlosss fault if investors had no other places to invest" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015842760335466897) 2026-01-26T17:42Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "@argosyinvestors @TBinkowski44570 Agree on this but to me this doesnt diminish Schlosss record. Maybe think of it like a dividend stock vs Berkshire a reinvestment engine" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015843246245630197) 2026-01-26T17:44Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "The Warren Buffett of Canada- what a beautiful table :) 20% for [--] years will be just fine. $BRKA $BRKB $FFH.CA $$ http://t.co/9kkBzIQD" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/303187021478891520) 2013-02-17T16:59Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "@BluegrassCap $WMB now trades below the price the day before $ETE announced their bid" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/625470866655195136) 2015-07-27T01:00Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "Just last week $WMB CEO said gathering contracts are not the type of contracts that would be rejected in bankruptcy" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/702206839958716417) 2016-02-23T19:02Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "Seeing these mark downs more and more frequently at the grocery $SAM" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/733054276872884225) 2016-05-18T21:58Z 48.1K followers, [--] engagements "So rare to see management talk about buybacks this way. This is a year or so old but they bought $1b recently $CMG" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/738916627618598912) 2016-06-04T02:13Z 48K followers, [--] engagements "Huge disparity between Medicare and private insurance payments for dialysis $DVA $ARA http://nyti.ms/29mJNAk http://nyti.ms/29mJNAk" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/766479974618505216) 2016-08-19T03:40Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "I completely agree with this Morgan Stanley analyst from the $AN call" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/857666910233800705) 2017-04-27T18:45Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "I thought the advice that Henry Kravis gave to young people in this talk is really applicable to investors of all ages: Be curious get out of your comfort zone and give back. One other takeaway: Get off the computer and go talk to people. $KKR https://youtu.be/UpfuDbEm9l4 https://youtu.be/UpfuDbEm9l4" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1078854035439058944) 2018-12-29T03:23Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "Always interesting to watch how drastic the sentiment shifts can be: Housing stocks were getting killed at this time a year ago on fears that rates were headed higher. Today banks are down b/c of the opposite fear. Not much has changed at $NVR but it's up 75% from its [----] lows" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1164569529395159045) 2019-08-22T16:06Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements "One of the most remarkable examples of the stimulus effect on consumption: $AZO sales rising 50% in two days after checks began arriving. The volatility of their comps within just the last quarter was incredible:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1265622748136701952) 2020-05-27T12:35Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements "Verisign reminding us of the value of their toll bridge. They keep the cloud's lights on $VRSN https://blog.verisign.com/domain-names/dns-an-essential-component-of-cloud-computing/ https://blog.verisign.com/domain-names/dns-an-essential-component-of-cloud-computing/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1283086770318573568) 2020-07-14T17:11Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements "Rocket Mortgage (Quicken Loans) made $72 billion new mortgages in Q2. They originated nearly as much in the first half of '20 as they did all [----] and [----] was a record year by a wide margin. That company knows how to make hay when the sun is shining $RKT https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1805284/000104746920004131/a2242056zs-1a.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1805284/000104746920004131/a2242056zs-1a.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1284164103221714945) 2020-07-17T16:32Z 45.7K followers, [--] engagements "Like FANG $MA $V $SPGI $MCO have been perennial bargains in plain sight. Pretty amazing. 28% CAGR over [--] years and as @LibertyRPF points out in his latest newsletter this isn't cherry picking an entry point. Could have invested at many different periods & had similar results" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1417164537468444672) 2021-07-19T16:48Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "Obviously not directly comparable but still interesting that the market values a gross profit dollar from $SHOP 3x more than a gross profit dollar from $SQ. Why is this so" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1423309035017752585) 2021-08-05T15:44Z 45.8K followers, [---] engagements "This is not overly surprising but in one sense it's remarkable to think that a $4 billion business could rank as the top consumer brand especially when glancing at the mega-brands on this list. Most of the top [--] in this survey are 10-100x $PTON's size in terms of revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1431270403100528654) 2021-08-27T15:00Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements "What a time to start an investment fund Terrible timing but eventually it became of the best long-term track records in the history of mutual funds. h/t @jasonzweigwsj http://www.centralsecurities.com/AnnualReport2020.pdf http://www.centralsecurities.com/AnnualReport2020.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1469772700503658500) 2021-12-11T20:54Z 46.5K followers, [--] engagements "I don't think I've ever observed a large cap stock rise by 70% in a year while the earnings multiple actually contracted: $GOOG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1470218584588791814) 2021-12-13T02:26Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "Since the start of the pandemic [--] years ago $BRK.B has now significantly outperformed $ZM $SHOP and a number of other Covid winners. Just amazing when you think about it. It's a real life tortoise vs hare result" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1499848554868785157) 2022-03-04T20:45Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "$NVR CEO Paul Saville is passing the torch. He has to be one of the most underrated executives of the last couple decades. A true "outsider" CEO with an all-time great record" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1507023433267306500) 2022-03-24T15:56Z 46.6K followers, [---] engagements "@JerryCap After he bought $OXY he told CNBC that he made the investment after listening to "every word on the earnings call". I listened to it to understand his rationale and the entire call was about ramping up buybacks. I think it could be as simple as cheap + buybacks = hard to lose" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1513129404590919681) 2022-04-10T12:18Z 47.3K followers, [--] engagements "$NVR is an all-time great buying back 78% of its shares last [--] yrs Since [----] (top of last housing mkt) NVR repurchased 51% of its shares But the big box housing suppliers did better: it's interesting that $HD repurchased 53% of its shares & $LOW repurchased 57% since '05" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1516236704528666625) 2022-04-19T02:06Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "A clip that summarizes the state of the housing supply chain: $DHI started [-----] homes last Q; has just [---] finished homes in inventory in the entire country" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1519033183374827522) 2022-04-26T19:18Z 46.1K followers, [--] engagements "Charlie says he's never heard an intelligent discussion on cost of capital and while we may not know precisely what it is the 10-Q reminds me each quarter that it is very very low at Berkshire. $BRK.B" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1557115878252093440) 2022-08-09T21:25Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "I thought this was a great description of Floor & Decor's moat and why it's difficult even for $HD and $LOW to match the in-stock selection that $FND has in flooring "Insert Name is a markets junkie". I save that designation for very few. A list I can count with my fingers. Drew from @Speedwell_LLC is on that list. Fun to see him emerge from the shadows of big finance for @bizbreakdowns and Floor & Decor https://t.co/fbLkEgnjfC "Insert Name is a markets junkie". I save that designation for very few. A list I can count with my fingers. Drew from @Speedwell_LLC is on that list. Fun to see him" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1603078656901152769) 2022-12-14T17:25Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements "$UNP has paid a dividend for [---] consecutive years which means it has paid a dividend in three different centuries" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1623800814664810499) 2023-02-09T21:47Z 45.8K followers, 27.7K engagements "Paul Volcker had some interesting thoughts on Feds 2% inflation target (he thought it was nonsense). Felt deflation wasnt as likely as economists think (only caused by banking system collapse); even severe recessions (74 82) didnt have it. Inflation more likely/harder to tame" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1648678859427008515) 2023-04-19T13:24Z 45.8K followers, 65.7K engagements "Wow what a difference [--] years makes. $AAPL and Oil were in the too hard pile and now they are his two largest positions Great lessons: learning never stops; and be open to changing your mind (h/t a good friend for pointing this clip out to me)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1671371291876552705) 2023-06-21T04:15Z 48.6K followers, 44.8K engagements "Interesting note on all [--] of these: $AAPL airlines & oil. In [----] he's saying he didn't understand them (meaning he didn't have confidence in economics of the business/industry). But less than [--] years later he was buying all of them (and [--] of [--] are now his biggest positions)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1671491079290355713) 2023-06-21T12:11Z 42.2K followers, [--] engagements "I cant stop watching the sequence. Just attempting to steal home is the most exciting play in baseball imo. Better than the triple play or inside the park HR. But Ive never seen [--] stolen bases on two pitches" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1677860459855196161) 2023-07-12T21:52Z 40.8K followers, 48.4K engagements "@tuteja_arjun Which ones" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1679874249077522433) 2023-07-14T15:23Z 42.4K followers, [---] engagements "Great example of sentiment shifts creating opportunity in even the most well followed companies. Price moves more than value. $MSFTs intrinsic value hasnt changed by $850b in [--] months but its quoted value has. This means at least one (or both) of these quotes is wrong which" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1679880148043149315) 2023-07-14T15:46Z 42.2K followers, [--] engagements "I think this is a pretty good perspective on the Hollywood strikes and how it relates to theaters. Some industry people have called the strike existential but it's probably more likely a near term (2024-2025) problem. Seems clear that demand is back and studios clearly see the value in theatrical releases (both of which were called into question last few years). Strike is going to hurt perhaps a lot next year but it's not a permanent issue for the movie industry. From $MCS CEO:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1689326591980052482) 2023-08-09T17:23Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements "This is a really interesting idea that Einhorn has been talking about recently. I've noticed many companies (what I'd call stealth high quality; Japan is one of numerous examples) where the stocks are so cheap and there is just "no one home" as a friend likes to say. What's great about these is the capital returns can provide tremendous CAGR's on their own. Takes a little digging but there are such things at [--] P/E's 25% dividend yields and other extreme values; and some of them have very high quality economics. @dirtcheapstocks @dsmoak98 and @natstewart5 are a few of the best at finding such" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1689824666964144128) 2023-08-11T02:22Z 48.6K followers, 367.9K engagements "@marketplunger1 @StealthMode987 Definitely true that Japan has been cheap for many years but what has changed is capital allocation. Im reading many annual reports that are completely changing their philosophy on capital. It does seem to be different this time 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1690780504100831232) 2023-08-13T17:41Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements "Finally got around to publishing these thoughts: Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later: https://t.co/KbrI0GdsF0 Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later: https://t.co/KbrI0GdsF0" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1690825890815479810) 2023-08-13T20:41Z 42.8K followers, 37.7K engagements "To demonstrate the huge productivity gains in the US Buffett often cites how 80% of the countrys population worked in farming before the Industrial Revolution vs just 3% now. He should just show this video next time h/t @DynamicMoats (Side note: the stat above + this video should calm the fears regarding long term impact of AI on jobs; productivity gains have always led to higher standard of living and more demand for labor not less) An amazing automation process in agriculture https://t.co/YOcFpv8uzX An amazing automation process in agriculture https://t.co/YOcFpv8uzX" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1693105554388873694) 2023-08-20T03:39Z 48.6K followers, 93.7K engagements "@chamath There are lots of middleman businesses that have fantastic long term profitability. I think what matters isnt necessarily the middleman part but rather the customer or supplier leverage part. Middlemen that sit between lots of customers/suppliers can be incredible businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1693222697893769380) 2023-08-20T11:25Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements "Great thread on $FND and its competition. They are taking share from the big boxes but to me the most interesting aspect of their model is the potential to take share from the [-----] or so fragmented independents out there. Potentially very long runway at only 10% share Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-Ks some may not know that $HD & $LOW actually report their flooring department sales annually While their fiscal yr ends do lag $FND by a month we can still derive good insights from their results A few highlights https://t.co/w8ElcxVWgC Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-Ks some may not" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1696524674937840051) 2023-08-29T14:06Z 45K followers, 63.3K engagements "Article highlights the biggest challenge (imo) of the energy transition: most people naturally want cleaner energy but few want to pay for it. Climate change policy measures struggle for the same reason government spending gets out of control: the incentives of re-election trump longer term ramifications. People will act in their own best interests especially in the short term. This reality combined with the fact that the rest of the world wants the west's standard of living will make it really difficult in the near term to move off of more reliable and lower cost energy sources (not an" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1702314226172211344) 2023-09-14T13:31Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Mr_Neutral_Man Guys that take leg day as serious as you always stick to the process and end up winning in the end. And that valuation headwind looks like it has turned into a nice tailwind at this point" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1702814400954990783) 2023-09-15T22:39Z 42.1K followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JohnHuber72 John Huber
John Huber posts on X about stocks, investment, business, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Year [---] +46%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance #3335 stocks technology brands countries cryptocurrencies financial services fashion brands nfl currencies social networks
Social topic influence stocks #190, investment, business, in the, growth, ai, link, future, $goog, $aapl
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @billbrewstertbb @marketplunger1 @capitalobserver @libertyrpf @firstadopter @natstewart5 @thetikr @michaeljburry @turtlebayio @jacksonwharf @stevemagness @brkdaily @brownmarubozu @trungtphan @dirtcheapstocks @dsmoak98 @mrneutralman @valuedontlie @jrogrow @compound248
Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B) Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Lowes Companies Inc (LOW) Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Metadium (META) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) Basis Cash (BAC) Netflix Inc (NFLX) DisChain (DIS) Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Moody's Corporation (MCO) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Dillards Inc. (DDS) Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@_inpractise @JanithaCharaka @indianwhale But the problem with building them is it takes too long and the winner will be the one with biggest scale; i.e VRM cant match CVNA unit economics at 1/10th the size and same will be true in UK or anywhere. So my view is theyre in a race to get most supply as fast as possible"
X Link 2021-09-16T14:20Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting that FCNCA tangible book value per share has grown from about $200 to $1600 over the past decade (23% CAGR) and the stock trades at book value implying little premium for the mgmt quality capital allocation decisions the deposit franchise a rebound in SVB fee income etc. I think big deals are likely behind them for a while but Fifth Third and Comerica are merging (regionals can still expand) and there will be a downturn again when FCNCA has always played offense. I estimate they're buying the BMO branches for around 1x the NII they'll be able to collect from those deposits and"
X Link 2025-10-19T18:24Z 48.4K followers, 23.2K engagements
"I wrote some thoughts on two different types of bank investments asset sensitivity and FCNCA's valuation (link in bio)"
X Link 2025-10-28T15:35Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Yeah I think of these as intermediate term investments. Sometimes durable mature big caps get thrown out due to either company specific issues or short term macro fears. AAPL in [----] ORLY [----] META [----] NFLX [----] and GOOG 2025; also XOM VLO GE MMM and JPM were multibaggers over the past 3-5 years). I missed most of these but the good news is the market seems to offer a few of these each year. UNH might possibly be an example of this currently. Your point on options is interesting because many of these stocks are high quality lower beta and thus have cheap options."
X Link 2026-01-18T20:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Adobe might be just fine but Im old enough to remember when people said that iPhone and Macs were fun for consumers but the enterprise world was locked into BlackBerry. Similar story with Google apps (docs sheets etc) vs Excel Sometimes the consumer tools move upmarket $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT https://t.co/53vq3BtN4l $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:27Z 48.4K followers, 24.9K engagements
"I remember you writing about it many years ago. You had this one figured out. One reason I like recurring revenue businesses with no debt because there is a built in call option: swapping debt for equity. The ability to take on debt to buy out owners is a nice arrow in the quiver when the stock is cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:51Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"FCNCA took a big bite of its shares over the past [--] months:"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:02Z 48.4K followers, 16.4K engagements
"One of the greatest track records of all time. And he did it his own way: diversified cheap hated stocks hundreds of investments over the years a repeatable process numbers based didnt focus on moats per se didnt need catalysts bought cheap stocks and waited. Understood the basic concept that the market is short term focused and if you had patience you had a big edge. My main takeaway from Schloss isnt his strategy per se though I like it. But it is that he did things his own way with an independent mind. Didnt worry about what his friends or his clients thought about his stocks. He was close"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:06Z 48.4K followers, 49.6K engagements
"Some simple math on productivity gains. I think it's commonly assumed that a 10% increase in productivity is easy to achieve with AI and for some companies it might be but unlikely for the overall market. Non-tech S&P operating margins are around 9% and the median margin for all public US companies (including tech) in the US is under 10% but let's assume 10% op margins: This is $100 and $10 of profits or $90 of costs or $1.11 of output per dollar of input costs. A 10% increase in productivity takes this business to $1.22 output per $1 input: either sales go to $110 with the same $90 of costs"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:00Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"When I see this picture I see an illustrated explanation for why a commodity priced at say $110 with a cash production cost of $30 is not a long-term sustainable circumstance. Lots of people with lots of money are interested in that $80 gap and despite supply fundamentals which do seem compelling this excess profit doesn't last forever $SLV I've been attending the VRIC (Vancouver Resource Investment Conference) for nearly [--] years. Mostly to take the temperature of the metals and mining industry for my investments in the sector/industry. It's a great show and the investor turnouts have"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:53Z 48.4K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Yes its really impressive and I think demand for Claude code and others will keep growing fast. I bucket this in the wholesale demand category which is of course real demand but my question is about how it gets monetized. My thinking is these productivity gains will accrue to customers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:10Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"New post with some thoughts on AI productivity shortages and gluts:"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:34Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@greg_ip @jturek18 To me its an Occams Razor. Momentum begets momentum. Speculation. All kinds of fundamental reasons get attributed to try and explain it and some of that might have gotten things going like kindling but none of those reasons seem to justify the magnitude of the move"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:59Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"WSJ article highlights the major push toward production increases with gold and silver where they are currently: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@JasonLiebel @treiner5 Yep it usually is one of the largest expenses these companies have. Not including it is akin to not counting the labor expense at Chipotle or Starbucks"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:53Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@AgAuUOil @Ole_S_Hansen Youre correct. It was panic selling and forced liquidations. And gold isnt much different same moves as silver just less extreme. I would not call either safe havens at current prices that are 3-4x production costs"
X Link 2026-01-31T05:52Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"META plans to spend $125b on capex this year. GOOG $180b (+100% growth yoy). Capex now 40% or more of expected sales at both. Just stunning. My hunch is hyperscalers will slow down their rapid pace of capex spending sooner than the market expects. They won't be capital light but I think capex takes a big step down in a few years or less as capacity catches up to demand. Will be painful if that occurs but that might be a buying opportunity for LT investors. Stocks will be a lot cheaper FCF will be much higher and their core businesses are in most cases still dominant. The stocks will get"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:42Z 48.6K followers, 39.3K engagements
"$AAPL has returned 6x since 2016: 3x was from multiple expansion 1.6x from earnings growth and 1.3x from buybacks (AAPL reduced shares by 25% since '16). Biggest factor was multiple but buybacks are a big tailwind. What are your favorite share-eating companies"
X Link 2021-11-18T13:26Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"I wrote some thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal the impact on movie theaters and a few notes on DIS's valuation $CNK $MCS $DIS $NFLX"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:59Z 48.5K followers, 11.2K engagements
"@AyusoValue Nice what [--] questions did you prompt it with"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:22Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@lhamtil Agree Its an awesome business. Although you need the studio content to tie it all together. Good news is Disney+ profits are quickly growing. Would be nice to sell ESPN"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:19Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@DayumDawgg I dont disagree with any of that. But thats partly why the stock is cheap. And hopefully past is past regarding the political nonsense. Parks moat is still one of the best businesses out there and Disney+ now ramping profits maybe we get to see an inflection point. Well see"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:15Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"They are super sophisticated and have almost always been on the cutting edge of technology. Their warehouse network and supply chain was world class very early on. But this tech prowess doesnt mean the stock is worth 45x either most efficiency gains accrue to customers in retail"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Completely agree. The farming analogy is what I was thinking about last night when I read that piece. The machine would have been viewed as existential to farm workers (and it was) but they didnt imagine all the new jobs that were created for them and their fellow humans because of it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:41Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@The_Pro_Invest Yes great point. I remember when both MCO and FICO traded at 10x. How times (and narratives) have changed"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:45Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I think your point on stickiness is very valid. I would be questioning whether you think pricing power will be stronger or weaker in the future. I wouldnt be totally dismissive of the threat given what I have seen Claude and others can do already in this realm. I do think these companies have a strong position. But I also think the stocks were probably a bit overvalued https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:47Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@JacksonWharf @firstadopter History suggests the exact opposite in 100% of previous technological revolutions"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Compounders are largely more expensive these days but when a stock trades at a 20% FCF yield and is buying back shares it has the same per share compounding potential as a 20% ROIC company that reinvests all earnings. Some thoughts:"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:48Z 48.6K followers, 100.9K engagements
"New post: updated thoughts on Netflix and theaters (CNK and MCS); and an earnings update on FCNCA. Analysts like precision but it can lead to overemphasizing asset sensitivity and expense growth. I think this overlooks the potential operating leverage here a few years out"
X Link 2026-01-25T16:39Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Walmart trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) valuation. [--] P/E and [--] P/FCF for a business that grew less than 4% CAGR last decade. $WMT"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:21Z 48.6K followers, 24.2K engagements
"I continue to think $NFLX buying WBD might lead to more content in theaters not less. Sarandos appeared in front of the senate this week and reiterated this view he gave recently: $CNK $MCS"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:03Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"New Post: Some thoughts on the "AI Fear Trade" along with some case studies and comments on some stocks I think offer good value in quieter corners of the market outside the headlines. The indiscriminate selling (and buying) of the last few weeks reminds me of Covid (when everything internet related was bought and everything else sold) and also of [----] when tech stocks crowded out the market for stocks like BRK and AZO which got very cheap). Large caps are still very expensive in my opinion but the knee-jerk narrative-driven selling is probably an overreaction"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:02Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Im referring to public stocks. He does sometimes pay up when he can control the cash flow but even with full acquisitions there have been lots of smaller deals done at 10-15x or less. I estimate the most recent deal he did (buying the chemical business from OXY) is well under 10x normalized earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:55Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$MUSA is a 10-bagger in [--] yrs (26% CAGR). Great example of "boring" stock in low growth industry (gas stations) that created huge value (like NVR AZO ORLY). [--] key ingredients: consistent buybacks + persistently below avg valuation. The boring part helps sustain the latter"
X Link 2024-03-19T02:36Z 48.6K followers, 52.2K engagements
"@UnionistJackson @chandan_maloo I think some are likely to rerate over time but if the stock trades at a 12%+ FCF yield and you get all of it as div/buybacks then you don't need any increase in multiple to get adequate returns. And even modest low single digit growth ends up giving you mid-teen returns"
X Link 2024-06-11T23:16Z 48.5K followers, 30.4K engagements
"Costco is up 3x in the last [--] years but who would have thought that BJ's Wholesale would be the better performing warehouse club store (up 4.5x over that period) $COST $BJ"
X Link 2025-03-14T16:16Z 48.5K followers, 87K engagements
"New post with some more comments on portfolio strategy current opportunities and the importance of being flexible I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again."
X Link 2025-06-04T13:55Z 48.6K followers, 33.6K engagements
"$SRBK announced a second 10% buyback finishing the first one in about [--] months. I like tracking the thrift conversions that announce buybacks as soon as they are eligible. $BVFL is another one that only took [--] months to buyback 10% of their shares before announcing a second one $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of"
X Link 2025-07-10T04:24Z 48.5K followers, 12.1K engagements
"Cowboys continue to disappoint but at least Jerry has Comstock. Lots of interesting well developments happening in the western Haynesville $CRK $BSM https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html"
X Link 2025-11-07T19:08Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Despite the narratives California is allowing for increased oil production. $CRC is wasting no time in submitting applications for new wells in California (some have already been approved). A new law (SB 237) took effect 1/1/26 and allows for up to [----] new well permits annually (up from virtually zero in recent years) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:54Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"An illustration of a world class moat (with world class pricing power) $DIS https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:01Z 48.5K followers, 14.5K engagements
"@TheBroskiUSA @firstadopter Not if 50% of humans are out of work (Unless I guess the AI robots develop their own economy with their own buying power 😂) But yes this fear is way overblown. Humans will adapt and remain gainfully employed over the long run"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:04Z 48.5K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Illustration of the power of a royalty business with a nice moat: this was only a very modest growth business but it required no capital investment (similar to Sees Candies) which frees up all earnings to be paid out via dividends and buybacks. Final ingredient is low/reasonable valuation during much of those earlier days which increases the yield on the buyback. In addition to $41 of dividends over this period NATH bought back about 20% of its shares between 2003-04 and another 30% between 2009-13 Low growth + high ROIC + low valuation + good capital allocation is the formula that helped"
X Link 2026-01-22T02:34Z 48.6K followers, 36.8K engagements
"First time in five years that Charter didn't lose video subscribers. Will be interesting to see if this is a blip on the radar in a longer term downtrend or if cord cutting has leveled off $CHTR"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:48Z 48.6K followers, 10.6K engagements
"@CapitalObserver I was wondering the same thing about $NVR 😀"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:15Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I think Google is up roughly 100% since it was downgraded for losing the AI narrative. These narrative shifts are about as wide as the stocks gaps between [--] week highs and lows. And its probably better to buy the narratives low and sell them high Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold" Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold""
X Link 2026-02-09T19:12Z 48.6K followers, 27.2K engagements
"The debate on whether the SPGI/MCO ratings regulatory moat is immune to AI should not the main concern here (imo). If only a minority of your revenue (20-30%) comes from a segment that can be easily replicated with AI it could have a major impact on your business. The ratings moat can be fully intact but maybe the $20k CapIQ product (which has massive margins) is way overpriced. Im not suggesting this is my view but that is what I would be thinking about as a much greater likelihood than upsetting the ratings moat. My hunch is these companies will adapt and remain good businesses long term"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:58Z 48.6K followers, 32.6K engagements
"Link here: with thoughts on $NRP $DIS $PBI $DOUG $SLV and a few other ideas: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:13Z 48.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I think this is the #1 reason why Buffett hardly ever paid more than [--] P/E and often paid 10x or less for stocks. Getting more cash in the near term reduces the reliance on being right about the very long term which is what you need to be when paying high multiples Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:28Z 48.6K followers, 168.5K engagements
"@stevemagness @pvtjokerus Our team did [--] mpw in the summer and early fall in HS. Obviously not the norm but I knew many others who did as well. I remember reading about Don Sage doing [---] mpw and that always inspired me to want to do more at the time"
X Link 2026-02-15T03:39Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@trengriffin Repair shops are having a hard time getting skilled labor which combined with rising prices for parts is making repairs so expensive (causing more cars to be totaled and sent to $CPRT). Boyd Group has talked a lot about how lack of labor requires insurance rate increases"
X Link 2023-06-25T11:36Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've repurchased 9% of the shares in the last year. 10-q just came out and they bought another 126k shares in April (about 1% of SO); nice to see since banks often almost always pull back on buybacks whenever there is volatility. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've"
X Link 2025-05-16T15:09Z 48.4K followers, 22.1K engagements
"@leevalueroach There is no real informational advantage in large caps but that doesnt mean large caps cant get very mispriced. JPM is up 3x in [--] years. Sometimes the edge is just being willing to look out a few years when everyone else is unwilling to look past a few quarters"
X Link 2026-01-18T20:21Z 48.4K followers, 14.4K engagements
"Smithfield's is taking one of the best long-term small cap compounders off the market. [--] years ago Nathan's Famous was a $3 stock. Since then they've paid $41 in total dividends and the stock now is valued at $102. @natstewart5 and I were recently talking about the power of owning royalties which is that they can grow without capital which allows owners the rare opportunity to extract cash from a business while also benefiting from growth. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too business model is sometimes under-appreciated $NATH https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013976405978063151"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:06Z 48.4K followers, 37.6K engagements
"Peter Lynch had a chapter in his second book on them but the best thing to do to learn is to study a recent conversion. I'd recommend picking one that converted sometime in the last few years and read the prospectus. BVFL had a second step conversion in May [----]. The prospectus has excellent detail on how the conversion works how the funding works etc"
X Link 2026-01-24T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move"
X Link 2026-01-30T03:43Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Interesting how much greater the net flows into silver ETFs vs gold this month considering the assets in gold ETF's are roughly [--] times the amount in silver $SLV $GLD People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move https://t.co/GmKQCiupuz People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest"
X Link 2026-01-30T03:54Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@lhamtil That year when the Giants went to the World Series I remember there was a stretch in that postseason where if they actually pitched to him and he didnt hit a home run it was almost surprising"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:42Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@CapitalObserver Same with Amazon which is already negative ttm (counting the 20b SBC as an expense)"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:06Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I think so. A slowdown in capex will likely be the result of the realization that the returns on all that spending was lower than hoped. I don't think that will be viewed favorably but could be a buying opportunity. A recent past example was Amazon realizing they had excess retail warehouse space in [----] and slowing spending. The excess capacity was viewed as bad news but it sowed the seeds of a recovery in retail margins and free cash flow later https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:47Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"They'll have around $100m in cash left after debt paydown at year end so they'll have one or two more diet seasons quite a big ask $WTW"
X Link 2015-08-06T14:52Z 48.5K followers, [--] engagements
"$GOOG has (maybe deservedly) gotten a lot of criticism over the years for its capital allocation policies. But can anyone name one other company that actually increased the pace of buybacks in March Given the changes at the top I think we'll slowly start to see more of this"
X Link 2020-04-29T13:06Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@petershk @IveyContrarian Yeah the thing about speculation is it usually helps build something of lasting value for someone else. Most speculators lose but whats left is a railroad system airlines cars telecom infrastructure the internet etc. and then real companies are built as a result"
X Link 2021-02-12T14:13Z 47.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Growth of data reminds me of the explosion of websites/traffic in the earlier days of the web. Growth isn't constrained by factors that normally limit the size of most everything else. Chart from $AMAT investor day h/t @SeifelCapital"
X Link 2021-06-16T01:22Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOG showing off their operating leverage that has always existed but was often hidden. Expenses flattish + gross profits growing at a fast clip has created a lot of value. Result is ROIC at decade highs. h/t @theTIKR"
X Link 2021-10-30T13:11Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"$CPRT isn't a flashy company but it keeps putting up flashy returns on capital. One of my favorite companies on Saber's watchlist. Great mgmt dominant leader w/ barriers to entry growth great economics. I can't think of a growth business more (endearingly) boring than Copart"
X Link 2021-11-18T16:34Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"I like the Nick Sleep chapter in Richer Wiser Happier. Interesting to read about his evolution from a (very successful) bargain hunter to an extreme focus on quality and a select few types of business models (specifically those w/ cost advantages that get shared with customers)"
X Link 2022-02-09T18:23Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Nice summary of why $CPRT owns their land. Conservatism leads to a lasting business. Similar to Buffett's logic for holding excess cash: durability. Geico policyholders know claims will always be paid and Geico knows Copart will always have capacity to auction their vehicles"
X Link 2022-09-09T17:17Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$BKNG outlining how paying employees with stock is an actual expense. So many companies talk about "FCF" and even net income that excludes this very real expense. Bravo 👏"
X Link 2023-02-24T16:46Z 48.6K followers, 51.5K engagements
"Many people have asked why $HD and $LOW can't just replicate $FND's selection advantage. Another clip from this Tegus interview Alex cited is useful. HD wants to own less inventory. They don't want to carry [----] flooring SKU's. Direct sourcing would actually lower ROIC at HD $FND - "When we started buying from CFL they were doing $10 million a year in manufacturing sales. The last year I was there they did over $400 million. Organizations that you help build from the ground up are going to be extremely faithful to you." https://t.co/21zoenqlJ2 https://t.co/e43XrMPcBj $FND - "When we started"
X Link 2023-03-02T04:01Z 48.3K followers, 32.4K engagements
"Rare to see mgmt team that shares in the upside (common) but also downside (uncommon) and very rare to see a request to reduce salary. My favorite part: the request was done without fanfare (pg [--] of proxy) Patrick & his team are quality managers but also quality people. $HIFS"
X Link 2023-04-16T14:04Z 48.3K followers, 99.1K engagements
"Really interesting comments from Buffett & Munger on oil in 2008; sheds light on why they like $OXY so much. Basically: production capacity peaks before demand does which will lead to "some very interesting consequences" h/t @BrkDaily (who sends great snippets like this daily)"
X Link 2023-05-25T16:04Z 48.3K followers, 39.3K engagements
"Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years ago and that has climbed to 20% today. That has been the biggest tailwind in salvage. And it seems likely that this ratio only keeps climbing as complexity of cars increases Modern cars are easier to total than in past years. https://t.co/QX68IknKfD Modern cars are easier to total than in past years. https://t.co/QX68IknKfD"
X Link 2023-06-23T16:47Z 48.1K followers, 100.7K engagements
"$CPRT's new CFO does a nice job summarizing their [--] key advantages: 1) Network effect: the most buyers leads to ever expanding list of sellers (305k cars available on their site right now) 2) Huge barrier to entry: good luck getting permits for a new junk yard 3) Long-term view Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years ago and that has climbed to 20% today. That has been the biggest tailwind in salvage. And it seems likely that this ratio only keeps climbing as complexity of cars increases Copart likes to reference how only 5% of accidents were totaled [--] years"
X Link 2023-06-23T17:24Z 48.3K followers, 24.9K engagements
"Surprising fact for the day: $FCNCA has outperformed all the big tech stocks over the last [--] years: slightly ahead of MSFT and AAPL and far ahead of AMZN and GOOG. And it still only trades at around 7.5x the earnings I expect them to make this next year"
X Link 2023-08-08T13:20Z 48.3K followers, 23.8K engagements
"Frank Holding continues to buy shares of First Citizens $FCNCB $FCNCA Nice to see given the already sizable insider ownership (insiders own over $2 billion worth of shares)"
X Link 2023-10-03T17:26Z 48.3K followers, 10.5K engagements
"Interesting comments on Costco retail in general making big profits from a struggling Baltimore store; also notable he says he invests in two types of companies: great ones (which hes known for) but also how interested he is in Ben Graham cigar butts. https://open.spotify.com/episode/5bSdpI3CYrpCvBNXVQBHFYsi=bbryeuGFRrmJSkmdOGcK3Q https://open.spotify.com/episode/5bSdpI3CYrpCvBNXVQBHFYsi=bbryeuGFRrmJSkmdOGcK3Q"
X Link 2023-11-02T01:44Z 48.3K followers, 19.9K engagements
"Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook:"
X Link 2024-01-18T13:33Z 48.6K followers, 84.7K engagements
"$PHM doing best at what all builders are trying to do: more options less land more buybacks: the $NVR plan Share count down 50% in [--] yrs; and with its cheaper P/E the buybacks went further for PHM's owners: 32% total CAGR last [--] yrs vs 22% NVR 20% last [--] yrs vs 19% NVR"
X Link 2024-01-31T02:46Z 47.9K followers, 32.3K engagements
"New post: A Value Investor's Bank (link in bio)"
X Link 2024-01-31T14:23Z 48.4K followers, 43.2K engagements
"New post with some thoughts on the valuations ROICs and the rising capital intensity of the formerly capital light tech companies (link in bio) $GOOG $MSFT $META"
X Link 2024-05-07T12:24Z 48.6K followers, 249.4K engagements
"Short update post on $NRP $DR.TO and $FCNCA along with a few other thoughts"
X Link 2024-08-20T13:48Z 48.3K followers, 22.7K engagements
"@ThomasBraziel Looking forward to your ideas On the capital call loans thats a big part of SVBs business (now $FCNCA). I think theyve had just one single loan go bad over the history of that lending product"
X Link 2024-11-12T11:28Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"I wrote this article back in May but should update this chart. $AMZN and $GOOG together guiding to $175b capex next year alone. Together the big [--] will be close to $300b next year. Buffett talks about how it's so hard to get decent ROIC on $300b portfolio (which is invested once). Imagine investing this much in one year and then doing another $300b next year and again the year after that etc. In a few short years there will be $1 trillion of invested capital. Key question for all these companies is not what the ROIC has been (which is world class) but what will it be on these hundreds of"
X Link 2025-02-07T14:37Z 48.6K followers, 141.9K engagements
"@tierrapartners $MRP and $FOR have different earning power potential though. $LEN structured the spinoff so that MRP's upside is very capped (i.e. Lennar keeping for itself any excess returns on capital that would normally accrue to the land developer). Imo MRP deserves a major discount to book"
X Link 2025-02-13T17:35Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"$NKE is an example of how even a great company can be a risky investment at a certain price. It's a great brand but even after a 60% drop it's around 20x for a business that grew top line 6% last [--] years. Might turn out to be a good stock but Nike is example (however unlikely) of the possible risks that I see in a number of the world's best companies when paying today's high prices. "Fish where the fish are" - Charlie Munger 10-years ago the fish were in a different spot (large cap quality growth stocks). Today there might still be a few fish left here and there but that hole has largely"
X Link 2025-02-13T20:31Z 48.6K followers, 76.6K engagements
"The NHL found something awesome with their all star format. But its awesome because the players care. This makes the fans care. When players treat the all star game like exhibition (at best) its not interesting for fans. When I watch these hockey games it looks like everything is on the line. Its not the format its the effort and passion that make it fun I think its more fun to complain about the nba than to actually watch it. Crazy cancel all star weekend and lets just give everybody a break since were so miserable around this time I think its more fun to complain about the nba than to"
X Link 2025-02-19T02:11Z 46.2K followers, 10.7K engagements
"New post: Cinemark's new buyback announcement thoughts on theater operating leverage and valuations and a quick review of the Fairfax preferred stocks (link in bio): $CNK $MCS $FRFHF"
X Link 2025-03-07T18:45Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Found this surprising when I saw it: $AMZN has underperformed the S&P YTD [--] yr [--] yr and [--] yr periods. Says nothing about what future performance will be but still surprising given the reputation as one of the Mag 7's. Also [--] yrs ago in April [----] it would have been hard to imagine a better positioned company than Amazon to handle the onslaught of demand and the shift in retail to ecommerce during Covid. This is also an interesting case study regarding capital cycle theory. Amazon (by its own account) overestimated demand and after a whopping $300 billion of capex over the last [--] years it was"
X Link 2025-04-22T01:53Z 48.6K followers, 42.8K engagements
"Another example of how bargains often hide in plain sight even among the largest stocks in the market (i.e. even large caps can get mispriced). $JPM is knocking on the door of a 3x in [--] years:"
X Link 2025-07-02T22:16Z 48.6K followers, 43.9K engagements
"Great point by @BrownMarubozu: if you're $MEG shareholder you presumably like the Christina Lake asset. Why give it up to CVE at a cheap price when oil is also at low levels With $SCR you get a much larger stake in the future cash flows from that asset which will be sizable"
X Link 2025-09-02T02:06Z 48.3K followers, 12.9K engagements
"This is a remarkable outcome. I think it has more to do with capital allocation and starting valuations. I felt like ABNB had a better model because it didnt need Google to acquire customers but BKNG runs its business with more efficiency far less stock based comp and has used its FCF to buy back shares. ABNBs buyback doesnt create nearly as much value because so much of it is soaked up by the SBC. That portion of their buyback is essentially a cash compensation expense Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink). $ABNB $BKNG https://t.co/oYeMGzzVnI Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink)."
X Link 2025-09-15T13:43Z 48.6K followers, 73.9K engagements
"KMX approaching GFC level lows on P/TBV"
X Link 2025-09-26T20:55Z 47.9K followers, 10.3K engagements
"I think a lot of the underperformance of EEM and China over the last [--] years is due to much lower returns on capital. Some of those economies have faster growth but the growth required so much capital that the returns were minimal (e.g. an extreme example is the ghost cities in China: they helped GDP grow but didn't create any value). A lot of the larger companies in those indexes are similar; they help fund the growth of their economies but soak up so much capital that investor returns are low"
X Link 2025-09-30T12:29Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements
"FCNCA underperformance YTD. And it extends to both asset sensitive & liability sensitive; big and small"
X Link 2025-10-01T19:01Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@BubleQe I agree with the advantages Canadian oil has but how can we say no decline with mining There are decades of reserves but still at least a small decline rate no"
X Link 2025-10-15T22:34Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@bearlyai @TrungTPhan If I could only get VCs to fund my Costco runs"
X Link 2025-10-25T16:23Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Its a pretty conservative bank in terms of their underwriting. Theyll never earn the highest roe but they have been a steady compounder over many decades. They wont replicate the growth organically. But bargain purchases are a part of their strategy and I would expect that to continue when opportunities arise"
X Link 2025-10-29T01:10Z 47.9K followers, [---] engagements
"I was reviewing UAA results recently and I reminded myself how difficult it is to have an apparel brand and stay on top. Nike has done it but Id say just about everyone else rides a wave and then struggles. And even Nike isnt immune. I agree that LULU could turn it around and the stock could be a winner from here but there are so many different options for Lulu type clothes that are much cheaper and just as good. Too hard pile right now but interesting to see how it goes"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:00Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Its possible that $GOOG is already up 40% or even 50% from Berkshires cost basis in Q3"
X Link 2025-11-17T02:36Z 48K followers, 97.6K engagements
"Everyone is arguing about depreciation schedules. In the end the free cash flow will be all that matters. If the hardware doesnt need to be replaced as often it will show up in higher cash returns on capital. If it does need replacing sooner FCF will continue to be lower. Well all know soon enough what the returns on the spending are"
X Link 2025-11-19T02:05Z 47.9K followers, 12.7K engagements
"@patientinvestt Roughly 40% of UBERs cash flow comes from a reserve it takes for future insurance costs. While we dont know exactly what that cash cost will ultimately be it is a real cash cost. Stock is roughly double that valuation if you count the insurance reserve as an expense"
X Link 2025-11-22T00:31Z 48K followers, 10.4K engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Its much more expensive than 16x because 40% of Ubers cash flow comes from a reserve it takes for future insurance costs. Also some hefty SBC to deduct. Of course the stock still could be cheap just not 16x cheap"
X Link 2025-11-22T00:34Z 48K followers, 12.8K engagements
"No they need to reserve more as they grow. They self insure a big piece of their business. Nothing untoward but its a real cost that Ive noticed some investors overlooking. Would be like ignoring the loss reserves a bank sets aside each year for loan losses. Both are deducted on the income statement and both are real costs but they are non cash now because the costs come in later over time"
X Link 2025-11-22T18:20Z 48K followers, [---] engagements
"Right. Just like an insurance company we book the expense today but we wont know actual cash costs until the claims come in. The reserve is similar to how a bank provisions for future loan losses: a non cash debit against earnings on the income statement and thus reverses in the cash flow statement but it is (or will be) a real cash cost eventually"
X Link 2025-11-24T12:40Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Salesforce has a market cap around $220 billion. Salesforce CEO tweets about Gemini and Google gains about $220 billion in market cap in a few hours. An entire Salesforce worth of additional market value. In one sense it took Benioff [--] years to build that much value at one company and maybe [--] seconds to build that much at another 😀"
X Link 2025-11-24T15:52Z 47.9K followers, 78.7K engagements
"These two paragraphs do a good job at summarizing some of the potential risks out there"
X Link 2025-11-24T17:39Z 48.3K followers, 85.5K engagements
"What a great blog post this was and not because its about Apple or because it aged so well; I think he makes great points about what makes a Buffett stock and what doesnt. Specifically his point on past price performance and its relationship to quality & value Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS"
X Link 2025-11-25T03:58Z 48K followers, 52.4K engagements
"@dnbrwnjr @BenBajarin @kheksheyal Id always prefer the alternative. Employees can always buy stock with their own money. is a great example here. Pay employees in cash some choose to buy shares but share count is unchanged. Regardless paying employees in stock is a real expense http://SCR.to http://SCR.to"
X Link 2025-11-25T23:45Z 48K followers, [----] engagements
"Market is a discounting mechanism (perhaps you can buy one soon and if so how does that impact the competitive landscape) I dont have a strong view on this but the question NVDA investors have to ask is what is the runway for their monopoly When will competition come in The market moves quickly to discount these threats and that isnt irrational imo"
X Link 2025-11-26T16:06Z 48K followers, [----] engagements
"Munger buying coal stocks in his final year. An independent thinker and always learning right to the very end. Fascinating article by @GZuckerman"
X Link 2025-11-27T14:45Z 48.1K followers, 39.6K engagements
"@hectordiro @kadistock @GZuckerman @MohnishPabrai Mohnish might have introduced Charlie to the idea"
X Link 2025-11-28T03:31Z 48K followers, [---] engagements
"😂 Ive noticed this same issue occasionally (not often) with ChatGPT and Gemini. One recently overstated the acreage owned by a company Im looking at by 8x. It was also a random precise number (not a round approximation) which would make you think its legitimate. It quickly corrected it because I happened to know the true answer and called it out but because it is never in doubt its hard to recognize these mistakes. They are awesome tools but they also do a great job at doing what my grandfather used to say: speak with authority even when you dont know the answer. This freaking guy."
X Link 2025-12-03T15:09Z 48.1K followers, 26.7K engagements
"A while back we had a short thread on ROIC and FCF yield and while its more important to focus on the FCF yield in low growth businesses that dont reinvest. I wrote a post with some more thoughts on this and some examples"
X Link 2025-12-05T12:49Z 48.3K followers, 67.6K engagements
"Yes the only way to offset inflation is to increase the returns on capital. Growth won't do that necessarily. But pricing power will. Inflation impacts both high and low ROIC businesses; it's possible that either could offset it but only through increasing returns at the rate of inflation. Can happen at low or high ROIC"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:18Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Titan about the sub that attempted Titanic tourism. Super interesting documentary on both the science and the human side. So many interesting behavioral and leadership observations/takeaways. What is the best documentary or docuseries you've recently watched on @netflix Or in the last year What is the best documentary or docuseries you've recently watched on @netflix Or in the last year"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:33Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Who will manage the stock portfolio is a question that Greg will need to answer soon and it will be interesting to hear what he says Todd Combs exit from Berkshire throws a spotlight on a big blind spot: who runs the $280B equity book and $380B cash/T-bill pile after Buffett Hes nailed CEO succession & culture but gone quiet on investment succession. After early talk of Ted+Todd vs the S&P weve Todd Combs exit from Berkshire throws a spotlight on a big blind spot: who runs the $280B equity book and $380B cash/T-bill pile after Buffett Hes nailed CEO succession & culture but gone quiet on"
X Link 2025-12-09T02:21Z 48.1K followers, 53.3K engagements
"Yep great point. Also took on $20 million of debt from Salomon in the 1973-74 crash so he could have more firepower to load up on stocks Buffett doesn't time market but: - Shuts down fund at peak in [----]. - Calls dotcom top in [----] at Sun Valley. - Warns about speculative assets in [----]. - Managed to borrow billions under these terms. https://t.co/HyjSNhnaLY Buffett doesn't time market but: - Shuts down fund at peak in [----]. - Calls dotcom top in [----] at Sun Valley. - Warns about speculative assets in [----]. - Managed to borrow billions under these terms. https://t.co/HyjSNhnaLY"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:15Z 48.3K followers, 45.9K engagements
"@AmirReihani87 It had it my head [--] but it was 20"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:18Z 48.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@calvinblissett @AdamB1438 Lowensteins book talks about it. Salomon didnt want to do it but based on Buffetts personal reputation they ended up agreeing to it"
X Link 2025-12-10T12:54Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements
"GM is up 50% YTD and nearly 100% since April lows. The company has reported improving fundamentals but imagine someone on Liberation Day tells you that this sluggish car company that's facing tariffs intense competition and labor cost issues would double before the year is out. another example of how even large cap stocks can sometimes become coiled springs when they're beaten down"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:43Z 48.1K followers, 11K engagements
"I'm reading @TSOH_Investing's Buffett & Munger Unscripted. Imagine the cost of tasking someone with the painstaking process of watching all the BRK meetings pulling out thousands of clips and organizing them by subject. Almost unfair that we get this for $35. Great work Alex"
X Link 2025-12-11T13:31Z 48.3K followers, 39.9K engagements
"@ToddWenning @mihaljevic @BillBrewsterTBB Absolutely. the $1b is ridiculous. I love the licensing of IP and wish they would have clarified some more on that at least generally. Instead of focusing on the investment. There is only one way that cash should be flowing in that relationship not two ways"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:47Z 48.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Last month I commented on UBER's FCF being much lower than widely reported due to a big chunk of it coming from insurance reserve costs. @michaeljburry recently had a great post on how the actual cost of SBC is often understated both in the cash flow and the GAAP income statement. I think he makes a great point on a real cash cost that I think is often ignored. For companies that buy back shares to offset dilution the cost of that buyback is akin to actual cash compensation. What we often find is the cash cost greatly exceeds the stated cost when companies are growing (naturally as issuing"
X Link 2025-12-16T17:16Z 48.3K followers, 100.6K engagements
"@CapitalObserver @michaeljburry That is correct. But thats like any company that issues stock at a lower price. The money they spend on the buyback is the actual cost of mitigating that dilution. Basically theyre issuing low and buying back higher"
X Link 2025-12-16T17:38Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@Will45075251537 @michaeljburry No the expense is what it is. The buyback just explicitly shows the cash outflow (the actual cost to owners of issuing the stock given the current share price). Makes it easy to see how dilutive the stock comp actually was"
X Link 2025-12-17T03:00Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Correct the higher the stock goes the more expensive the share based comp was. No different than using stock for M&A. The buyback just highlights the actual cash cost of the SBC. It took $5.6b to keep share count flat. If you issue stock cheap and buy those shares at twice the price it is more expensive for owners. If you issue stock and it goes lower this is cheaper for owners"
X Link 2025-12-17T13:06Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@Leonbdecker Correct. The buyback just illustrates the actual cash cost of the stock that was given away. That is the whole point of this exercise. How much did the stock cost in actual cash"
X Link 2025-12-17T18:40Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"@altcap Its not just the gas tax. Its the fact they are sitting on some of the largest oil reserves in the world and they dont let them drill. However SB237 is changing this and we should see permits increasing significantly next year"
X Link 2025-12-20T15:42Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting find on a REIT that Buffett bought in his personal account back in [----]. He once said he would prefer to buy real estate directly rather than paying fees to someone else (a REIT) but he did make a number of REIT investments in those years especially liquidations @brettgardner_10 @chrisvirnig @sidecarcap @mastersinvest Can verify he took a stake in Burnham Pacific Properties in San Diego after old man Burnham hired an idiot to run it for him - https://t.co/M8s9paWMWd @brettgardner_10 @chrisvirnig @sidecarcap @mastersinvest Can verify he took a stake in Burnham Pacific Properties in"
X Link 2025-12-21T03:34Z 48.3K followers, 29.9K engagements
"California and Canadian oil fields have much lower decline rates lower maintenance capex and higher FCF than the Permian shale oil in Texas. Charlie Munger has invested in California oil fields at various times in the past and once told an interesting story missing the chance to really load up on Belridge Oil when it a big discount to liquidation. The stock ended up rising 30x before getting sold to Shell for $3.7 billion. That field once again trades at a discount to liquidation value with some interesting prospects ahead"
X Link 2025-12-22T20:02Z 48.3K followers, 15.3K engagements
"All great points and agree. The IRRs can be similar if the capital allocation is good. The hard part for me is trying to underwrite what those returns will be whereas for a SAGD asset in Alberta that has a central processing facility built I view that as more predictable. But I absolutely agree that either can be great"
X Link 2025-12-23T00:17Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"There are some major changes happening. A law was just passed that encourages drilling and will grant up to [----] well permits annually. They need the oil as one of the worlds top [--] largest economies (if it were its own country). The people there are sick of paying high gas prices when theyre sitting on vast reserves. But Regardless of politics the fact is the state consumes 1.5m barrels a day and they have to get it from somewhere"
X Link 2025-12-23T12:58Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Talk about a feel good story Louisiana guy sells his business and gives 15% of the proceeds to his employees. Average bonus per employee was $443k many of them hourly workers living paycheck to paycheck https://www.wsj.com/business/fibrebond-eaton-bonus-walker-30844d62st=UrhSvZ https://www.wsj.com/business/fibrebond-eaton-bonus-walker-30844d62st=UrhSvZ"
X Link 2025-12-26T01:34Z 48.4K followers, 45.7K engagements
"Paid $7 to watch Ravens/Packers what I thought was going to be a fun game only to realize that both teams had their backup QBs in. Clearly Im behind on sports news but it made me realize how mundane it is to watch the Chiefs without Mahomes the Ravens without Lamar Packers without Love etc like my interest goes from [--] out of [--] to about [--] out of [--] To watch NFL Week [--] you just need: Netflix Prime Video NFL Network Peacock/NBC FOX CBS ESPN To watch NFL Week [--] you just need: Netflix Prime Video NFL Network Peacock/NBC FOX CBS ESPN"
X Link 2025-12-28T04:45Z 48.3K followers, 13.5K engagements
"New post: some thoughts on a company that I think has a strong position in its market despite the negative sentiment"
X Link 2025-12-29T16:04Z 48.3K followers, 13.8K engagements
"@marcuswerther He was using leverage but even accounting for that his return on assets was still north of 60% that year"
X Link 2025-12-31T17:51Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@BourbonCap @ACapitalLP I think the oil price reaction is more likely bearish as the possibility of opening up that supply just dramatically improved. Venezuela sits on [---] billion barrels of crude reserves and Maduro has let their oil infrastructure crumble"
X Link 2026-01-03T16:37Z 48.4K followers, 10.1K engagements
"At oil companies a good portion of their costs are fixed so as prices fall their margins come down and vice versa. It is possible that this is good for big oil long term if they're able to get more volume out of Venezuela though that will take many years and lots of capital and to me is far from certain. I actually don't think this will be a big game changer for the price of oil over the long term"
X Link 2026-01-04T13:22Z 48.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Agree. Ex interest (theyll be debt free this year) NRP earned $65 total FCF/share in 2022-2024. Average of $18/sh the past decade. They told me a primary reason for going debt free is to be able to capitalize on these inevitable bumper crop years. Their time frame is decades @ragingbullcap @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics NRP is a beautiful asset for long duration capital @ragingbullcap @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics NRP is a beautiful asset for long duration capital"
X Link 2026-01-14T13:40Z 48.4K followers, 23.3K engagements
"I sort of disagree with the statement quality wins over time. It sometimes does but it is only if the stock is undervalued relative to its future cash flows. And sometimes quality can be risky (I generally think now is one of those times). I think value wins over time (not factor definitions of value but discount to future cash flows; which is also my definition of quality 😀). Also picking quality businesses is not our goal as investors (or shouldnt be) our goal is picking quality investments. Maybe stating the obvious here but just some thoughts after reading that passage"
X Link 2026-01-14T17:43Z 48.4K followers, 15.5K engagements
"I wrote a post with more details on CRC the new SB237 law and the prospect of California production growth here: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/contrarian-low-cost-producer-at-a https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/contrarian-low-cost-producer-at-a"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"California has a cap and trade system which basically acts as a significant emissions tax on heavy industries (cement power plants refineries factories etc). This is one reason why CRC's carbon storage business is gaining some traction. It is in some cases cheaper for large emitters to pay CRC to store CO2 in CRC's pore space than it is to pay for the emissions allowance. I don't have a lot of conviction on this business segment yet but they did receive their first permit for carbon storage and they have valuable land and pore space needed for injection and storage (similar to NRP). The cap"
X Link 2026-01-14T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@crowdturtle @RonadatylJake @DividendDynasty Yep gotta add that pesky compensation expense 😀"
X Link 2026-01-16T23:03Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The silver supply/demand case is compelling at first glance and I know a majority of production is mined as a byproduct but what about the 25% that is mined by pure silver miners. Why wouldnt they be ramping up production now with all in cash costs around $20-30 Silver at $80 per ounce feels shocking only if you look at it as a precious metal trade. If you look at it as a supply and demand problem the price move starts to look logical. Over the past ten years silver demand has grown structurally while supply has gone nowhere. Total https://t.co/hS1cwIBK4n Silver at $80 per ounce feels"
X Link 2026-01-17T02:32Z 48.4K followers, 10.6K engagements
"@michaeljburry Ignore criticism from people you wouldnt take advice from - Aaron Rodgers (I think) Your work is some of the most interesting and original analysis in the entire investment community. Keep rolling"
X Link 2026-01-17T02:45Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@BillBrewsterTBB Stocks at all time highs often keep going and are sometimes still undervalued. Youre just getting started BB"
X Link 2026-01-17T04:01Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@AdamSchefter I don't think it was this play. I think it was the kneel down which looked awkward"
X Link 2026-01-18T05:06Z 48.4K followers, 15.9K engagements
"@ACIPartnerhship 45% I wasn't following Fairfax closely then but I do remember the short attack. I didn't realize the stock was impacted nearly that much"
X Link 2026-01-19T17:20Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@TrungTPhan What amazes me about this throw is he's throwing off his back foot falling away in the snow and with the angle it probably travels over [--] yards. Crazy athleticism that guy has. kind of a bummer they couldn't finish it in OT"
X Link 2026-01-19T17:25Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@thewinningdiff1 Also confirming that college football players dont really go to school 😂"
X Link 2026-01-20T00:35Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Turned to AI to tell me which teams have gone 16-0 (IU would be the first since 1894). But interestingly it is either making a prediction or it knows the future"
X Link 2026-01-20T03:58Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Everyone watching this game or playing in it (including Brady as he says in the clip) knew this was a fumble. This was Bradys first Super Bowl year and I wonder how it would have changed not just this season but future Patriot super bowls had they not reversed this call "The Tuck Rule" January [--] [----] The [----] AFC Divisional Playoff #Patriots. #Raiders. https://t.co/gdOKHVlpkA "The Tuck Rule" January [--] [----] The [----] AFC Divisional Playoff #Patriots. #Raiders. https://t.co/gdOKHVlpkA"
X Link 2026-01-20T04:35Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Quality of earnings for a big part of the top of the index (namely big tech) has declined in recent years (as capex rapidly outpaces depreciation). This expense increase will hit the income statement over the next few years and can only be offset by accelerating sales growth or expense cuts elsewhere. Possible but I think forward earnings growth of these major companies might not be any better than the median growth rate of the index over the next 5-10 years. Combined with high current valuations it could be a recipe for pretty pedestrian stock returns over the next decade or so"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:32Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@longwalkcapital For some reason I've noticed this pattern before where the stock drops on earnings and then recovers fairly quickly. The results (I thought) were excellent. They're always conservative but SVB is ramping up (34% annualized growth in Q4)"
X Link 2026-01-23T15:37Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@evantindell Not sure it exactly rhymes with your description but Netflix in [----] changed their tune pretty drastically admitted competitive pressures and subscriber count flatlined but they continued to talk about returning to growth and margin expansion and ultimately they were right"
X Link 2026-01-24T03:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Today was the second time the Broncos have lost an AFC championship game 10-7. The last time was thanks to a long field goal by Scott Norwood (but alas no one else remembers any kick that poor guy ever made) Winning a playoff game 10-7 is indeed Brady-esque Winning a playoff game 10-7 is indeed Brady-esque"
X Link 2026-01-26T00:12Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@backoftheenvelo His fund did grow over time but yes he paid out some gains from my understanding. But still would you invest in a security that paid you 15% dividends on average over [--] years Where do I sign"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:15Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@argosyinvestors @TBinkowski44570 This argument is a major first world problem. Buying a stock that pays you a 16% dividend for [--] years is not a bad deal. Its also not Schlosss fault if investors had no other places to invest"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:42Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@argosyinvestors @TBinkowski44570 Agree on this but to me this doesnt diminish Schlosss record. Maybe think of it like a dividend stock vs Berkshire a reinvestment engine"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:44Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"The Warren Buffett of Canada- what a beautiful table :) 20% for [--] years will be just fine. $BRKA $BRKB $FFH.CA $$ http://t.co/9kkBzIQD"
X Link 2013-02-17T16:59Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"@BluegrassCap $WMB now trades below the price the day before $ETE announced their bid"
X Link 2015-07-27T01:00Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Just last week $WMB CEO said gathering contracts are not the type of contracts that would be rejected in bankruptcy"
X Link 2016-02-23T19:02Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Seeing these mark downs more and more frequently at the grocery $SAM"
X Link 2016-05-18T21:58Z 48.1K followers, [--] engagements
"So rare to see management talk about buybacks this way. This is a year or so old but they bought $1b recently $CMG"
X Link 2016-06-04T02:13Z 48K followers, [--] engagements
"Huge disparity between Medicare and private insurance payments for dialysis $DVA $ARA http://nyti.ms/29mJNAk http://nyti.ms/29mJNAk"
X Link 2016-08-19T03:40Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"I completely agree with this Morgan Stanley analyst from the $AN call"
X Link 2017-04-27T18:45Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"I thought the advice that Henry Kravis gave to young people in this talk is really applicable to investors of all ages: Be curious get out of your comfort zone and give back. One other takeaway: Get off the computer and go talk to people. $KKR https://youtu.be/UpfuDbEm9l4 https://youtu.be/UpfuDbEm9l4"
X Link 2018-12-29T03:23Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Always interesting to watch how drastic the sentiment shifts can be: Housing stocks were getting killed at this time a year ago on fears that rates were headed higher. Today banks are down b/c of the opposite fear. Not much has changed at $NVR but it's up 75% from its [----] lows"
X Link 2019-08-22T16:06Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements
"One of the most remarkable examples of the stimulus effect on consumption: $AZO sales rising 50% in two days after checks began arriving. The volatility of their comps within just the last quarter was incredible:"
X Link 2020-05-27T12:35Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Verisign reminding us of the value of their toll bridge. They keep the cloud's lights on $VRSN https://blog.verisign.com/domain-names/dns-an-essential-component-of-cloud-computing/ https://blog.verisign.com/domain-names/dns-an-essential-component-of-cloud-computing/"
X Link 2020-07-14T17:11Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Rocket Mortgage (Quicken Loans) made $72 billion new mortgages in Q2. They originated nearly as much in the first half of '20 as they did all [----] and [----] was a record year by a wide margin. That company knows how to make hay when the sun is shining $RKT https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1805284/000104746920004131/a2242056zs-1a.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1805284/000104746920004131/a2242056zs-1a.htm"
X Link 2020-07-17T16:32Z 45.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Like FANG $MA $V $SPGI $MCO have been perennial bargains in plain sight. Pretty amazing. 28% CAGR over [--] years and as @LibertyRPF points out in his latest newsletter this isn't cherry picking an entry point. Could have invested at many different periods & had similar results"
X Link 2021-07-19T16:48Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Obviously not directly comparable but still interesting that the market values a gross profit dollar from $SHOP 3x more than a gross profit dollar from $SQ. Why is this so"
X Link 2021-08-05T15:44Z 45.8K followers, [---] engagements
"This is not overly surprising but in one sense it's remarkable to think that a $4 billion business could rank as the top consumer brand especially when glancing at the mega-brands on this list. Most of the top [--] in this survey are 10-100x $PTON's size in terms of revenue"
X Link 2021-08-27T15:00Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements
"What a time to start an investment fund Terrible timing but eventually it became of the best long-term track records in the history of mutual funds. h/t @jasonzweigwsj http://www.centralsecurities.com/AnnualReport2020.pdf http://www.centralsecurities.com/AnnualReport2020.pdf"
X Link 2021-12-11T20:54Z 46.5K followers, [--] engagements
"I don't think I've ever observed a large cap stock rise by 70% in a year while the earnings multiple actually contracted: $GOOG"
X Link 2021-12-13T02:26Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Since the start of the pandemic [--] years ago $BRK.B has now significantly outperformed $ZM $SHOP and a number of other Covid winners. Just amazing when you think about it. It's a real life tortoise vs hare result"
X Link 2022-03-04T20:45Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"$NVR CEO Paul Saville is passing the torch. He has to be one of the most underrated executives of the last couple decades. A true "outsider" CEO with an all-time great record"
X Link 2022-03-24T15:56Z 46.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap After he bought $OXY he told CNBC that he made the investment after listening to "every word on the earnings call". I listened to it to understand his rationale and the entire call was about ramping up buybacks. I think it could be as simple as cheap + buybacks = hard to lose"
X Link 2022-04-10T12:18Z 47.3K followers, [--] engagements
"$NVR is an all-time great buying back 78% of its shares last [--] yrs Since [----] (top of last housing mkt) NVR repurchased 51% of its shares But the big box housing suppliers did better: it's interesting that $HD repurchased 53% of its shares & $LOW repurchased 57% since '05"
X Link 2022-04-19T02:06Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"A clip that summarizes the state of the housing supply chain: $DHI started [-----] homes last Q; has just [---] finished homes in inventory in the entire country"
X Link 2022-04-26T19:18Z 46.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Charlie says he's never heard an intelligent discussion on cost of capital and while we may not know precisely what it is the 10-Q reminds me each quarter that it is very very low at Berkshire. $BRK.B"
X Link 2022-08-09T21:25Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"I thought this was a great description of Floor & Decor's moat and why it's difficult even for $HD and $LOW to match the in-stock selection that $FND has in flooring "Insert Name is a markets junkie". I save that designation for very few. A list I can count with my fingers. Drew from @Speedwell_LLC is on that list. Fun to see him emerge from the shadows of big finance for @bizbreakdowns and Floor & Decor https://t.co/fbLkEgnjfC "Insert Name is a markets junkie". I save that designation for very few. A list I can count with my fingers. Drew from @Speedwell_LLC is on that list. Fun to see him"
X Link 2022-12-14T17:25Z 45.8K followers, [--] engagements
"$UNP has paid a dividend for [---] consecutive years which means it has paid a dividend in three different centuries"
X Link 2023-02-09T21:47Z 45.8K followers, 27.7K engagements
"Paul Volcker had some interesting thoughts on Feds 2% inflation target (he thought it was nonsense). Felt deflation wasnt as likely as economists think (only caused by banking system collapse); even severe recessions (74 82) didnt have it. Inflation more likely/harder to tame"
X Link 2023-04-19T13:24Z 45.8K followers, 65.7K engagements
"Wow what a difference [--] years makes. $AAPL and Oil were in the too hard pile and now they are his two largest positions Great lessons: learning never stops; and be open to changing your mind (h/t a good friend for pointing this clip out to me)"
X Link 2023-06-21T04:15Z 48.6K followers, 44.8K engagements
"Interesting note on all [--] of these: $AAPL airlines & oil. In [----] he's saying he didn't understand them (meaning he didn't have confidence in economics of the business/industry). But less than [--] years later he was buying all of them (and [--] of [--] are now his biggest positions)"
X Link 2023-06-21T12:11Z 42.2K followers, [--] engagements
"I cant stop watching the sequence. Just attempting to steal home is the most exciting play in baseball imo. Better than the triple play or inside the park HR. But Ive never seen [--] stolen bases on two pitches"
X Link 2023-07-12T21:52Z 40.8K followers, 48.4K engagements
"@tuteja_arjun Which ones"
X Link 2023-07-14T15:23Z 42.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Great example of sentiment shifts creating opportunity in even the most well followed companies. Price moves more than value. $MSFTs intrinsic value hasnt changed by $850b in [--] months but its quoted value has. This means at least one (or both) of these quotes is wrong which"
X Link 2023-07-14T15:46Z 42.2K followers, [--] engagements
"I think this is a pretty good perspective on the Hollywood strikes and how it relates to theaters. Some industry people have called the strike existential but it's probably more likely a near term (2024-2025) problem. Seems clear that demand is back and studios clearly see the value in theatrical releases (both of which were called into question last few years). Strike is going to hurt perhaps a lot next year but it's not a permanent issue for the movie industry. From $MCS CEO:"
X Link 2023-08-09T17:23Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This is a really interesting idea that Einhorn has been talking about recently. I've noticed many companies (what I'd call stealth high quality; Japan is one of numerous examples) where the stocks are so cheap and there is just "no one home" as a friend likes to say. What's great about these is the capital returns can provide tremendous CAGR's on their own. Takes a little digging but there are such things at [--] P/E's 25% dividend yields and other extreme values; and some of them have very high quality economics. @dirtcheapstocks @dsmoak98 and @natstewart5 are a few of the best at finding such"
X Link 2023-08-11T02:22Z 48.6K followers, 367.9K engagements
"@marketplunger1 @StealthMode987 Definitely true that Japan has been cheap for many years but what has changed is capital allocation. Im reading many annual reports that are completely changing their philosophy on capital. It does seem to be different this time 😀"
X Link 2023-08-13T17:41Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Finally got around to publishing these thoughts: Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later: https://t.co/KbrI0GdsF0 Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later: https://t.co/KbrI0GdsF0"
X Link 2023-08-13T20:41Z 42.8K followers, 37.7K engagements
"To demonstrate the huge productivity gains in the US Buffett often cites how 80% of the countrys population worked in farming before the Industrial Revolution vs just 3% now. He should just show this video next time h/t @DynamicMoats (Side note: the stat above + this video should calm the fears regarding long term impact of AI on jobs; productivity gains have always led to higher standard of living and more demand for labor not less) An amazing automation process in agriculture https://t.co/YOcFpv8uzX An amazing automation process in agriculture https://t.co/YOcFpv8uzX"
X Link 2023-08-20T03:39Z 48.6K followers, 93.7K engagements
"@chamath There are lots of middleman businesses that have fantastic long term profitability. I think what matters isnt necessarily the middleman part but rather the customer or supplier leverage part. Middlemen that sit between lots of customers/suppliers can be incredible businesses"
X Link 2023-08-20T11:25Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Great thread on $FND and its competition. They are taking share from the big boxes but to me the most interesting aspect of their model is the potential to take share from the [-----] or so fragmented independents out there. Potentially very long runway at only 10% share Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-Ks some may not know that $HD & $LOW actually report their flooring department sales annually While their fiscal yr ends do lag $FND by a month we can still derive good insights from their results A few highlights https://t.co/w8ElcxVWgC Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-Ks some may not"
X Link 2023-08-29T14:06Z 45K followers, 63.3K engagements
"Article highlights the biggest challenge (imo) of the energy transition: most people naturally want cleaner energy but few want to pay for it. Climate change policy measures struggle for the same reason government spending gets out of control: the incentives of re-election trump longer term ramifications. People will act in their own best interests especially in the short term. This reality combined with the fact that the rest of the world wants the west's standard of living will make it really difficult in the near term to move off of more reliable and lower cost energy sources (not an"
X Link 2023-09-14T13:31Z 42.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Mr_Neutral_Man Guys that take leg day as serious as you always stick to the process and end up winning in the end. And that valuation headwind looks like it has turned into a nice tailwind at this point"
X Link 2023-09-15T22:39Z 42.1K followers, [--] engagements
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