#  @JesusFerna7026 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde Jesús Fernández-Villaverde posts on X about espaa, sistema, lo, de la the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1807440907647565824/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +743% - [--] Month [---------] +353% - [--] Months [---------] +81% - [--] Year [----------] +156,519% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1807440907647565824/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +56% - [--] Month [---] +334% - [--] Months [---] +121% - [--] Year [---] +13,433% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1807440907647565824/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +1.50% - [--] Month [------] +16% - [--] Months [------] +133% - [--] Year [------] +33,816% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1807440907647565824/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) 12.59% [finance](/list/finance) 5.93% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 4.44% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 2.22% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) 0.74% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.74% [stocks](/list/stocks) 0.74% [products](/list/products) 0.74% [currencies](/list/currencies) 0.74% **Social topic influence** [espaa](/topic/espaa) #2156, [sistema](/topic/sistema) #28, [lo](/topic/lo) #493, [de la](/topic/de-la) #2973, [como](/topic/como) 10.37%, [sobre](/topic/sobre) 8.89%, [solo](/topic/solo) 8.89%, [aos](/topic/aos) 8.15%, [mi](/topic/mi) 8.15%, [porque](/topic/porque) 7.41% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@frdelatorre](/creator/undefined) [@demiranda123](/creator/undefined) [@k1915580392](/creator/undefined) [@jongonzlz](/creator/undefined) [@ggga1357](/creator/undefined) [@josasis](/creator/undefined) [@elconfidencial](/creator/undefined) [@dieterlaan19838](/creator/undefined) [@aei](/creator/undefined) [@kingofsweden](/creator/undefined) [@bruscosandro](/creator/undefined) [@luisabeledo](/creator/undefined) [@clotildo1999](/creator/undefined) [@marquesultra](/creator/undefined) [@chunta](/creator/undefined) [@obloque](/creator/undefined) [@jeanclaudefox2](/creator/undefined) [@chrisphelanecon](/creator/undefined) [@cacerolohd](/creator/undefined) [@moigrem](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Im sharing my slide deck on the demographic future of humanity 🔗 Slides: prepared for the keynote address I will give tomorrow to the 7th EBRD and CEPR Research Symposium on The Economics of Demographic Change: 🔗 Symposium: Here are a few key ideas Ill be discussing tomorrow some of which even economists tracking population trends may not fully appreciate: [--] Fertility is falling everywhere: rich and poor countries alike booming and stagnating economies secular and religious societies. The decline is happening far faster than anyone anticipated even me ten years ago [--] For example Colombias" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1929278948350771281) 2025-06-01T20:48Z 46.2K followers, 1.2M engagements "Olivier Blanchard (@ojblanchard1) had a provocative post yesterday about a higher preference of French people for leisure: I have learned nearly an infinite amount of economics from Olivier since I was an undergrad and he came to Spain to present a report on our unemployment problem so I feel a bit intimidated about pushing back on this idea. I am perfectly happy with the idea that preferences are heterogeneous: some people like leisure more than others. And the goal of economic policy should never be to maximize output but to maximize welfare. If most people in France enjoy sitting in the" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2016499997362081977) 2026-01-28T13:13Z 46.2K followers, 230.7K engagements "During the time I have participated in the policy debate (as my post yesterday on counterfactual Nobel prize winners confirmed) I have realized that one of the hardest things for many people to grasp is that there are four (person-dependent) groups of economists: [--] Group A: Great researcher and I agree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group B: Great researcher and I disagree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group C: Weak researcher but I agree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group D: Weak researcher and I disagree with their policy recommendations. (Yes the great/weak distinction" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021954241917530436) 2026-02-12T14:27Z 46.2K followers, 26.1K engagements "Ok I finally accepted reality and upgraded to the $100-a-month Claude plan. The usage limits were getting on my nerves and for my academic research Claude is working noticeably better than ChatGPT. ChatGPT though still wins hands down for help with X posts or picking a movie to watch. Who would have told me just a few years ago that I would be spending more every month on AI tools than on my phone plan or my TV streaming services At this rate my AI bill is starting to look uncomfortably close to my monthly car lease payment. This is a new world" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2012228272549998790) 2026-01-16T18:19Z 45.4K followers, 77.5K engagements "I gave half of the survey paper to both ChatGPT and Claude to check notation consistency and suggest improvements (notation-heavy paper): 1) Claude's suggestions were more elegant; ChatGPT's were cumbersome and pedantic. 2) ChatGPT caught two minor inconsistencies that Claude missed. For now I'm using both in sequence😁 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012280565655884124 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012280565655884124" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2012280565655884124) 2026-01-16T21:47Z 45.4K followers, 14K engagements "There was a viral yet inaccurate post yesterday by @politicalmath about Chinas population: that many commentators have repeated on my own post: @politicalmath begins with a factual error and then compounds it with a logical fallacy. The factual error is the assumption that the one-child policy immediately reduced Chinas total fertility rate to one. This is false. First there were always dozens of exemptions to the policy. For example according to data compiled by Sarah Mellors Rodriguez by [----] only 35.4% of the population was unable to claim at least one exemption. Second enforcement was" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2013951574322659731) 2026-01-21T12:27Z 46.1K followers, 49.8K engagements "The [----] Revision of World Population Prospects from the UN Population Division (2024 WPP) has serious credibility problems both in data accuracy and in projection plausibility. This matters because it undermines rational demographic discussion. Heres the pattern: I present recent data from national statistical institutes and someone counters with [----] WPP figures either directly or via websites and AI tools that draw from it. The disconnect has become impossible to ignore. Let me illustrate with Chinas birth data from [----] to [----] plotted against the [----] WPP estimates and projections. In" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2014736095381012896) 2026-01-23T16:24Z 46.1K followers, 44.5K engagements "One key aspect of the recent global fertility decline is that it affects different groups unevenly. For example much of the recent fall appears concentrated among groups with lower average income or educational attainment. This represents a reversal relative to earlier historical patterns in which fertility tended to be higher among groups with lower income or education. This shift is visible both across countries and within countries. Across countries the U.S. now has higher fertility than countries such as China Turkey Iran Brazil Colombia Sri Lanka Thailand or Jamaica (to cite only a few" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2015090092029649112) 2026-01-24T15:51Z 46.1K followers, 182.3K engagements "One aspect of Keynes thought that is often overlooked is his concern about population. For example one reason he opposed the Versailles Treaty was his belief that Europe required a sophisticated division of labor to prevent mass starvation. Later in life in [----] he expressed serious worries that population would begin to shrink within a few decades leading to secular stagnation and underinvestment (see the excerpt from his [----] Galton Lecture below). In the case of the UK he was not far off. UK fertility has been below the replacement rate without interruption since [----] (so much for the" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2015465282647585239) 2026-01-25T16:42Z 46.1K followers, 39K engagements "Every time I post about fertility decline someone in the comments asks: why dont you talk about contraception Isnt that the obvious explanation This has nothing to do with contraception being a taboo topic. There are plenty of papers in top economics journals studying the effects of contraception on fertility. For example I include a screenshot of an outstanding paper by Pascaline Dupas (@DupasPascaline) Seema Jayachandran Adriana Lleras-Muney (@LlerasMuney) and Pauline Rossi which appeared in the American Economic Review a few months ago. The issue is statistical and it goes back to the very" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2015871921972191284) 2026-01-26T19:38Z 46.1K followers, 51.9K engagements "A reader Roberto Gmez (@Roberto08061521) left me a comment on one of my latest posts with some numbers he computed for Argentina on the average number of children per cohort (by age of women). I copy one of his figures. At least for Argentina there is not much evidence so far that delayed timing in childbearing will substantially change the basic observation: a fast and unprecedented drop in fertility. Is there delayed timing Yes. Is it a first-order explanation No. And before people tell me: Argentina had such a big economic crisis Yesterday I showed similar figures for many other countries." [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2016283663139537136) 2026-01-27T22:54Z 46.1K followers, 16.4K engagements "Given the recent events in Iran I briefly examined the countrys demographic history. During the 1950s and 1960s Iran had one of the highest fertility rates in the world approximately [--] which led to a population explosion: from [--] million in [----] to nearly [--] million in [----] with annual growth rates often exceeding 3%. After some cyclical fluctuations fertility began to decline in the 1980s at a rapid rate. It only took Iran [--] years to go from a fertility rate of [----] in [----] to below replacement rate in [----]. This was one of the most rapid declines in fertility ever recorded. After 2000" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2016859841017319685) 2026-01-29T13:03Z 45.4K followers, 41.3K engagements "@_Herce 😀 Given my age my safe withdrawal rate (the annuity I can pay myself from my financial wealth and the historical performance of my portfolio) is [-----------] pretty close to 5%" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2016921426721223008) 2026-01-29T17:08Z 45.9K followers, [----] engagements "Screenshot from Figure [--] of the Cato study: low-skilled immigrants are a net fiscal loss over their life cycle. Even Cato's study recognizes that (though later the study attempts some "creative accounting" to muddy the waters). I have never ever denied that high-skilled immigrants are a net win over their life cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019249947506327610 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019249947506327610" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2019249947506327610) 2026-02-05T03:21Z 45.5K followers, [---] engagements "Las caractersticas electorales de las regiones evolucionan con el cambio social a veces de manera profunda. Uno de mis ejemplos favoritos es Londres. Por mucho tiempo los conservadores obtenan slidas mayoras parlamentarias entre los miembros del Parlamento elegidos en Londres. En el pantallazo adjunto (de wiki) se muestra la tabla de resultados de los Tories en el rea del Gran Londres. En los aos [--] y [--] los conservadores obtenan claras mayoras en el Gran Londres (como en [----] [--] de [--] diputados) o se mantenan incluso cuando a nivel nacional flojeaban (como en octubre de [----] [--] de 92" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2019897013978947978) 2026-02-06T22:12Z 46.1K followers, 62.7K engagements "@brusco_sandro 😂 The R2 falls quite a bit but the beta not that much" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020539797446480073) 2026-02-08T16:46Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@brusco_sandro Ramsey was born relatively early (1903) so it does not contradict my point that being born later matters much for longevity" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020541256636530901) 2026-02-08T16:52Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "Un anlisis rpido de los resultados en Aragn con el escrutinio provisional ya casi cerrado (987% cuando escribo estas lneas) y sin haber tenido tiempo de revisar los datos a nivel ms desagregado. [--] El gran perdedor de la noche es el PP que se ha dejado con respecto a [----] dos escaos (de [--] a 26) [---] puntos (de 3551% a 3427%) y votos (de [-------] a 224.486; algunos menos cuando el escrutinio finalize). Estas eran unas elecciones convocadas por el PP en el momento en que crey oportuno y con vientos de cola claros (los escndalos del PSOE los accidentes ferroviarios el roto a Aragn de la propuesta" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020617476304748822) 2026-02-08T21:55Z 46.1K followers, 302.3K engagements "@riclbscholar Lo mismo. Ya pas hace unos aos en Andaluca" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020639577606881698) 2026-02-08T23:23Z 46.1K followers, [----] engagements "Solo hay que escuchar a @CarlosHQuero hablar por [--] minutos para darte cuenta de que tiene [--] puntos de IQ ms que Espinosa de los Monteros y que adems es culto. De hecho casi seguro que @CarlosHQuero hubiera aprobado contabilidad financiera en primera convocatoria (aunque en honor a la verdad no es algo muy difcil)" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020641398085619866) 2026-02-08T23:30Z 46.1K followers, 76.4K engagements "@Teo_opinion @luisabeledo Pues conoce usted a pocos votantes de Vox. Yo conozco a muchsimos que saltaron de alegra al librarse de l. En todo caso comparar a Espinosa de los Monteros con Carlos Hernndez Quero es como comparar un Trabant de Alemania del Este con un Aston Martin" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020645709595426832) 2026-02-08T23:47Z 46.1K followers, [----] engagements "@clotildo1999 @MarquesUltra @luisabeledo OD-P Ah me has perdido 😂😂😂😂" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020646381611110784) 2026-02-08T23:50Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@RecesvintoSpain Tengo que mirarlo en detalle empleando microdatos. Mi hiptesis ahora mismo es que el 50% de los votantes de SALF se iran a Vox el 50% a la abstencin" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020866331885572226) 2026-02-09T14:24Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@clotildo1999 @MarquesUltra Quien es ODP" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020971543736570058) 2026-02-09T21:22Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@DeMiranda123 @Jongonzlz @chunta @obloque Porque a los del BNG no les da la cabeza para ms. Son muy torpes. Pedir un concierto para Galicia una regin que recibe transferencias fiscales brutales del resto de Espaa es como que un cerdo haga propaganda del jamn serrano" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021208931914121424) 2026-02-10T13:05Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@DeMiranda123 @Jongonzlz @chunta @obloque Depende de qu haces con la SS. Pero olvidndonos de ella con un cupo real de cero (no negativo como ahora; cero sigue siendo un chollo porque es no pagar nada de los gastos comunes) el PV y Navarra tendran que rebajar su gasto en un 20%" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021214821979484589) 2026-02-10T13:29Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many hate economists because they play in policy discussions the same role as the kid who told you in second grade that Santa Claus does not exist (well since this was in Spain the Reyes Magos). You know it is true but you hate him even more precisely because you know he is right. People listen to Jon Stewart (populist left) or Oren Cass (populist right) because they want to escape reality. Stewart and Cass are the discontents of adulthood sellers of fantasies partly out of intellectual immaturity partly out of venal interests." [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022312585060614388) 2026-02-13T14:11Z 46.2K followers, 67.2K engagements "@JeanClaudeFox2 Funnily enough Parsons died in Germany while lecturing and he had studied in Heidelberg" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020136136039944383) 2026-02-07T14:02Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "In any case your point is a good reminder to outsiders obsessed with the ideological biases of economists: when I talk with the best researchers nowadays more often than not I cannot tell their politics beyond pure statistical inference (e.g. a high-income highly educated man in his 50s living in northern California usually votes x)" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021961140499058780) 2026-02-12T14:54Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@ggga1357 @ChrisPhelanEcon Who remembers today "Production of Commodities." except four weirdos at heterodox departments "Production of Commodities." was an enormous waste of time" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021983362177798469) 2026-02-12T16:22Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@noseque97973600 @ggga1357 @ChrisPhelanEcon I realized that. His comments are usually quite shallow but today he outdid himself. Do not read any of the books he recommended. This one A History of Economic Theory and Method Sixth Edition 6th Edition by Robert B. Ekelund Jr. and Robert F. Hbert" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022038973422678288) 2026-02-12T20:03Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "@ciencia_invest @lefineder But remember that China was conquered. China was part of the Manchu empire in the same way that Peru was part of the Spanish empire. That is what so many people forget" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022163386738651275) 2026-02-13T04:18Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements "I have spent the last couple of days looking at convergence in East Asian economies (Japan South Korea China etc.) toward the U.S. The figure below uses the recently released Penn World Table (PWT) release 11.0: In orange it plots TFP growth in China and in a representative East Asian economy (an average across these economies) always relative to the U.S. A value of 2% in [----] in the left panel means that Chinas TFP grew [--] percentage points faster than U.S. TFP in that year. In blue I plot average relative TFP growth over 15-year windows. For China the series starts in [----] with the beginning" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2007129679979790752) 2026-01-02T16:39Z 46.1K followers, 86.6K engagements "Few facts are more surprising than that as of early [----] Latin America has a lower fertility rate than the U.S. reversing a long-standing historical pattern. I was therefore very glad to see this morning a truly fascinating paper by Milagros Onofri Ins Berniell (@InesBerniell) Raquel Fernndez (@raquel1fernan) and Azul Menduia on Latin Americas recent fertility decline at @nberpubs: Understanding Latin Americas Fertility Decline: Age Education and Cohort Dynamics I have not yet had time to fully digest all its findings but I will be reading it repeatedly over the next few weeks. From a first" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2015783960568012861) 2026-01-26T13:48Z 46.1K followers, 134.6K engagements "Moshe Hazan(@MosheHazan6) who has done important work on the economics of fertility reminds me that he has documented the changing slope between fertility and education in advanced economies in several papers. One figure I found particularly clear to share on X is from his paper: Highly educated women are no longer childless: The role of marketization with David Weiss (a Penn alumnus) and Hosny Zoabi (@Zoabi_Hosny). The authors compare the rate of currently childless among women of 40-45 years of age (i.e. close to the end of their fertile age) with postgraduate degrees (masters doctorates" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2019056036523495931) 2026-02-04T14:30Z 46.1K followers, 30K engagements "De verdad la gente no sabe leer. Escribo en el post que la TIR efectiva del sistema en Espaa (considerando la legislacin actual de prestaciones e ingresos) es del 57% mientras que la TIR sostenible es del 21%. La frmula NO es para comparar con un sistema de capitalizacin es para calcular la sostenibilidad del sistema" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022714767081672777) 2026-02-14T16:49Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "A guide for students of economics: Ten statements that demonstrate that someone does not understand modern economics or what an equilibrium is and that you can safely ignore everything else they say. [--]. Equilibrium means the economy is stable or at rest. Many assume that an equilibrium is a peaceful state with no forces at play. Instead an equilibrium is just an arrangement of actions and expectations over time that are mutually consistent. It can be locally unstable explosive or fragile. Nothing in the definition of equilibrium implies stability. [--]. Equilibrium implies optimality or social" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1994464610922238065) 2025-11-28T17:53Z 46.2K followers, 629.1K engagements "@CaceroloHD @PEDR0VALDIVIA S pensar que eliminar [------] millones de duplicidades es como creer en los Reyes Magos cuando se tiene ms de [--] aos: https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022312585060614388 I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many hate economists because they play in policy discussions the same role as the kid who told you in second grade that Santa Claus does not exist (well since this was in Spain the Reyes Magos). You know it is https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022312585060614388 I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022716580677771362) 2026-02-14T16:56Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "@MoigreM Pero entonces yo no llamara a ese sistema privado una estafa piramidal" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022731451326697918) 2026-02-14T17:55Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Let me explain why I believe modern economics is such a powerful tool for understanding the world. Ill do this by discussing a great paper by Simone Cerreia-Vioglio @UncertainLars Fabio Maccheroni and Massimo Marinacci Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification published in the Review of Economic Studies a few months ago. Imagine I want to drive from UC San Diego to UCLA but Ive never driven that route before. I need to build a model of the world to guide me which we usually call a map. Maps are simplified representations of reality. They cant include every detail if theyre to be useful." [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1983954520410349969) 2025-10-30T17:49Z 46.2K followers, 346.6K engagements "Yesterday I posted on the life expectancy of great economists: But this raises an obvious question: Is economics good for your health Yes (but in a subtle way). For my previous post I had compiled a (subjective) list of the top [--] economists of all time. So I fed it to ChatGPT and asked it to compile similar lists of [--] sociologists mathematicians physicists and chemists. I pick sociology as a comparison within the social sciences and math physics and chemistry as examples from the hard sciences. To keep the comparison fair I asked that all researchers be born after [----] the year Adam Smith" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020860159723970788) 2026-02-09T13:59Z 46.2K followers, 20K engagements "Contrariamente a lo que se afirma insensatamente con frecuencia un sistema pblico de pensiones contributivas de reparto no es una estafa piramidal. Todo sistema de reparto se caracteriza por una tasa interna de retorno (TIR) que es la tasa de descuento que iguala en valor presente las cotizaciones de los trabajadores con las prestaciones que reciben (todas las cifras de este post estn en trminos reales es decir ya descontada la inflacin). Esta TIR puede ser la media del sistema (para todos los trabajadores) o individual (en la que se emplea el valor actuarial esperado que considera las" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022678571852918896) 2026-02-14T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 56.3K engagements "@polis_data Ese no es mi punto (mi posicin sobre la inmigracin es de sobra conocida). El punto es que todo sistema intertemporal (el que sea) necesita nuevas generaciones. Llamar a un sistema intertemporal "Ponzi" solo por ser intertemporal es absurdo" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022705167146385852) 2026-02-14T16:11Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Aqu tiene: si meti $1 en el S&P [---] en [----] en [----] tena [--] cntimos (en trminos reales). El americano que se jubil con [--] aos en [----] sufri un sequencing risk de primera magnitud. Es lo que tiene ser catedrtico de economa en una universidad de verdad: que sabemos los datos. 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022763057064083739) 2026-02-14T20:01Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "I have been posting repeatedly on X about the extraordinarily fast collapse of births across the planet: in rich and poor countries in fast-growing and slow-growing economies in religious and secular societies under right-wing and left-wing governments with high taxes and with low taxes. The pattern is universal. I knew this trend would continue. Still the figures released this morning left me genuinely speechless. Chinas government announced on Monday (see screenshot below) that births in [----] fell to [----] million a staggering [----] million fewer than in [----] and that the total fertility rate" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2013262261771440490) 2026-01-19T14:48Z 46.2K followers, 1.8M engagements "@Someone1599376 Do you find this projection for South Korea of WPP [----] plausible" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2014749361922515111) 2026-01-23T17:17Z 46.2K followers, 549.6K engagements "Over the weekend I wrapped up a new version of my paper The Neoclassical Growth of China with Lee Ohanian and Wen Yao: The main change from previous versions is that we thoroughly redid the analysis using PWT [----]. This was important because it allowed us to extend the sample to [----]. The additional years are quite informative although to our pleasant surprise in full agreement with what the model in the previous version of the paper had predicted using data up to [----]. I include my favorite figure from the paper in this post which compares China with other East Asian economies at similar" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2016154998334243082) 2026-01-27T14:23Z 46.2K followers, 79.1K engagements "This figure comes from a recent paper by Cheng et al. that correlates several statistical measures of income social outcomes and related variables with total fertility rates (TFR). The figure shows the relationship between the estimated overall cumulative effects of the mean female expected years of schooling over [--] years on TFR across regions. Right off the bat lets recall that this is a relation not a causality statement. It does not say that education causes higher or lower TFR; it only states that education and TFR move together. For example the causality arrow could move in the opposite" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2018342414390378518) 2026-02-02T15:15Z 46.2K followers, 42.2K engagements "The Sveriges Riksbank established the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in [----] to celebrate its 300th anniversary. As a result many great economists had died before that date and the stock of potential laureates was so large that many fantastic economists never received it. On Tuesday I visited @MITEcon. Amid many pleasures including great conversations I had the chance to take a pic from a wall where the department has displayed photographs of its laureates over the years a most impressive collection of names. This morning on the plane back from Boston for pure amusement" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2021723128989163559) 2026-02-11T23:08Z 46.2K followers, 18.6K engagements "@anup_malani Couldn't agree more. If I had one dollar for every time I had tried to explain what Coase was trying to do I would finally have enough money for that house in Santa Barbara I want 😆" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022326214346625090) 2026-02-13T15:05Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements "@K1915580392 @piromorfit23379 No. Y si usted sabe cmo inmunizarlos enveme su CV que el lunes le hacemos una oferta de ctedra de asset pricing en Wharton" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022727782510289255) 2026-02-14T17:40Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "S pero si le pilla a uno justo al jubilarse te destruye la senda de ingresos por diez aos y cuando la bolsa empieza a recuperarse ya puede ser demasiado tarde. Y no es el nico caso: ha habido tres dcadas ms en el ltimo siglo. No es algo raro. El punto es que todo sistema sensato de pensiones debe contar con un pilar de reparto y otro de capitalizacin. Mire: Es el blog de mi amigo Karsten el tipo ms listo de mi promocin. Este es un buen economista no un vendedor de humo. https://earlyretirementnow.com/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022776841153466409) 2026-02-14T20:55Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Solo me voy a centrar en el ltimo punto. Aunque es cierto que a largo plazo el rendimiento de inversiones crecimiento del PIB no lo es en el plazo de jubilacin de una persona (unos 20-30 aos). Si uno se jubila en [----] en Espaa te tragas una cada de la bolsa en valor real del 80% (le pas a mi abuelo) y te quedas en el sitio. Es increblemente difcil crear carteras de inversin que no estn sujetas a este "sequencing risk". Uno de mis mejores amigos se dedic a esto toda su vida y tiene un gran blog al respecto: y mi queridsima mujer se dedica a analizar "sequencing risk". Los dos a parte de tener" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022712494725230723) 2026-02-14T16:40Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Vamos a ver: la TIR efectiva la determina la legislacin (y en menor medida la esperanza de vida). Mientras no cambien la legislacin la TIR efectiva seguir siendo 57%. Por eso no es sostenible y probablemente se cambie la legislacin (como se viene haciendo por otra parte desde 1985). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022715206242099671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022715206242099671" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022715206242099671) 2026-02-14T16:51Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "Uno tiene un problema de sequencing risk brutal si lo metes en S&P500. Incluso con un target-date glide path te tragas una cantidad de riesgo brutal. Un sistema sensato tiene que tener un pilar de reparto u un pilar de capitalizacin. No darse cuenta del sequencing risk es no haber pensado en el tema por ms de [--] minutos. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022723523517817100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022723523517817100" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022723523517817100) 2026-02-14T17:24Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements "@bcnopenmind @josasis Gracias Muy buena ilustracin. 😊" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022775461512712289) 2026-02-14T20:50Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Esto escrib sobre el nefasto Torres y el incluso peor Vicenc Navarro que hoy sabemos cmo termin. Por cierto un economista espaol superfamoso llam a FEDEA al da siguiente a protestar que hubiese escrito eso sobre Navarro que era un luchador antifranquista y que no se mereca ese tratamiento. Me sent como una patada en al espinilla. Yo era ms junior entonces y me tuve que aguantar. Pero hoy monto el pollo. https://nadaesgratis.es/fernandez-villaverde/agricultores-y-pensiones https://nadaesgratis.es/fernandez-villaverde/agricultores-y-pensiones" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022776057792004309) 2026-02-14T20:52Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "@DavidGA_24 @GustavoBolsa @K1915580392 @piromorfit23379 Fue l quien seleccion una ventana de [--] aos como ventana en la que no se poda perder. No yo" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022777581133599128) 2026-02-14T20:58Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "@Miguel_Figueres @GustavoBolsa Porque es un sistema de mutualizacin de riesgos. Es igual que uno no puede salir del sistema pblico de sanidad porque "a m no me va a dar cncer"" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022777861149475170) 2026-02-14T20:59Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Es un sistema de mutualizacin de riesgos en el que quieres hacer pooling. De verdad no es tan difcil de entender (bueno en realidad s para algunos). Pero ya me he dado cuenta que hay mucho que cumple aquello de que quod natura non dat Salmantica non praestat. 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022778260141072730 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022778260141072730" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022778260141072730) 2026-02-14T21:01Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Very glad to see that Hanno Lustig (@HannoLustig) and Romain Wacziarg (@RWacziarg) have started a Substack: Both are outstanding economists with fundamental contributions to macroeconomics and political economy (among other areas). Almost as important Hanno works on issues like bonds and safe assets and Romain on topics such as fertility and culture all of which are close and dear to my heart. For instance Hanno wrote yesterday about the fiscal backing that a safe asset requires which is central to what I posted last week on international currency dominance. It is genuinely commendable that" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2019395522893656230) 2026-02-05T12:59Z 46.2K followers, 31.1K engagements "I have been working on how to explain the major changes in life cycles that increased life expectancy entails. A simple exercise I find useful is to list the top [--] economists of all time (my subjective list) and plot their ages at death; see the figure. The difference between David Ricardo (51 years old at death) and Ronald Coase (102) is striking. To put a number on this I regress age at death on year of birth. The R is surprisingly high (0.521) for such a crude regression. The slope implies approximately one additional year of life for every six years by which an economist is born later." [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2020536426320785721) 2026-02-08T16:33Z 46.2K followers, 56.7K engagements "This is really cool Inspired by a convo w/ @BasilHalperin about @JesusFerna7026's great "Wealth of Working Nations" paper "I" (read: Claude) made a web-app for visualizing their proposed metric for comparing cross-country growth (GDP/15-64 pop) Here are figs for their sample (1991-2019) and 91-24 https://t.co/AyCeYN0XiW Inspired by a convo w/ @BasilHalperin about @JesusFerna7026's great "Wealth of Working Nations" paper "I" (read: Claude) made a web-app for visualizing their proposed metric for comparing cross-country growth (GDP/15-64 pop) Here are figs for their sample (1991-2019) and 91-24" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022391462818910656) 2026-02-13T19:24Z 46.2K followers, 10.1K engagements "Ese argumento es totalmente vaco. El artculo [--] de la CE dice: "Los poderes pblicos garantizarn mediante pensiones adecuadas y peridicamente actualizadas la suficiencia econmica a los ciudadanos durante la tercera edad." Es el ejemplo perfecto de lo que en derecho se llama un principio jurdico indeterminado: no hay criterio objetivo que indique qu es "adecuado" o "suficiencia econmica". Como la jurisprudencia del TC ha sealado mil veces esto quiere decir que el artculo [--] de la CE es nicamente un criterio rector de la poltica econmica es decir algo que el legislador debe considerar como una" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022683479327019461) 2026-02-14T14:44Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements "@DrCarlosToscano No es incorrecto. https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022708812268892236 Veo que hay muchos lectores muy torpes que aprobaron las matemticas de bachillerato de chiripa. As que un ejemplo sencillo con los parmetros de Japn: n = [----] (una cada de la poblacin de un 1% anual) g = [----] (un crecimiento de la productividad de un 2% anual) TIR https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022708812268892236 Veo que hay muchos lectores muy torpes que aprobaron las matemticas de bachillerato de chiripa. As que un ejemplo sencillo con los parmetros de Japn: n = [----] (una cada de la poblacin de" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022716951760441802) 2026-02-14T16:57Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements "Gordsimo. Me preocupa adems que muchos hablan de inversin y finanzas y todo lo que dicen es infantil. No duraran ni cinco minutos en FNCE9110 - Financial Economics en Wharton y mucho menos en Wall Street. Pero me imagino que es el motivo por el que AQR hace dinero: con idiotas como estos como counterparty es fcil generar excess returns" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022800799500501330) 2026-02-14T22:31Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements "Frente a la locura total y absoluta que es el movimiento del decrecimiento (y todos sus adlteres en la universidad) Espaa (y Catalua) tienen que apostar decididamente por la era de la abundancia y el crecimiento econmico. Esto es lo que escrib con @lugaricano y Tano Santos hace unos meses en @elconfidencial: Si el fracaso de la revolucin industrial en Espaa marc el declive relativo del pas durante el siglo XIX y defini nuestro turbulento siglo XX hoy nos enfrentamos a un riesgo an mayor: quedar al margen de la revolucin de la inteligencia artificial. Las consecuencias de este fracaso seran" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1952731440304586827) 2025-08-05T14:00Z 46.2K followers, 37.3K engagements "Let me talk today about 🧽 sponge cities. When I discuss fertility decline I often get the following comment: As the population falls housing prices will also fall which will help with fertility and the system will self-correct. Perhaps not. As the population falls we are observing a phenomenon called sponge cities (see the map from Japan: do you know which city is the green spot). There are even more incentives for the population to concentrate in large cities (e.g. Tokyo or Seoul) for three reasons: [--] Jobs. As the population shrinks in many regions jobs disappear with it. Yes you can" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953114709172871471) 2025-08-06T15:23Z 46.2K followers, 277.7K engagements "I am often asked: Where does deep learning make a real difference in our computational capabilities in economics My answer In solving integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. In this class of models we want to understand the feedback loop between macro and climate. This is an extremely complicated computational problem because: [--] It is non-stationary. [--] It is highly non-linear. [--] It is highly dimensional. Because of these three reasons many IAMs have oversimplified the problem or ignored important economic mechanisms. In a recent paper published a few days ago Climate Change" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954895990558703738) 2025-08-11T13:21Z 46.2K followers, 37.9K engagements "Cronologa bsica para las pensiones en Espaa 🧵 [--] La edad media de jubilacin es de [---] aos. [--] As el jubilado medio que se retira este [--] de agosto naci el [--] de junio de [----]. [--] No empez a trabajar (legalmente) y cotizar hasta el [--] de julio de [----] ya que la edad mnima de trabajar era en aquel entonces de [--] aos. Algunas personas pudieron empezar antes en la economa sumergida o en la agricultura pero fueron pocos y no cotizaron hasta los [--] aos. En [----] Espaa ya no era una nacin eminentemente agrcola y Adolfo Surez era presidente del Gobierno desde el [--] de julio. [--] De los nacidos en 1960" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957005513159544954) 2025-08-17T09:04Z 46.2K followers, 164.4K engagements "@Donnymack666 No son los polticos. Son los votantes: el 90% de los votantes espaoles son unos irresponsables. Los polticos son irresponsables porque es lo que demandan los espaoles" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1957319217222709391) 2025-08-18T05:50Z 46.2K followers, 28.9K engagements "@deandres_jm @destroyAgile La inmigracin legal de inmigrantes poco cualificados de hecho es peor para el sistema de seguridad social. La ilegal no genera derechos la legal s. Yo estoy en contra de ambas: legal e ilegal" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1957354025168572705) 2025-08-18T08:09Z 46.2K followers, 91.2K engagements "The EUs problems are systemic and deep. For the first time in its history the EU recorded fewer births in [----] than the US Despite having an extra [---] million inhabitants https://t.co/xQ5NZYfvLp For the first time in its history the EU recorded fewer births in [----] than the US Despite having an extra [---] million inhabitants https://t.co/xQ5NZYfvLp" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1959931470446780753) 2025-08-25T10:50Z 46.2K followers, 41.6K engagements "No es cuestin de si alguien es nativo o inmigrante. Vivimos en un Estado del bienestar basado en la redistribucin: el 70% de los individuos en la parte baja de la distribucin recibe transferencias netas de las AAPP el grupo entre el 71% y el 90% queda ms o menos en cero (segn factores individuales como la longevidad o la salud) y solo el 10% superior son contribuyentes netos. El 99% de los inmigrantes que llegan a Espaa de fuera de la Unin Europea se sitan en el 90% inferior de renta: prcticamente todos salvo algunos profesionales de Chile o Argentina y los futbolistas. En su da cuando trabaj" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960293072262103499) 2025-08-26T10:47Z 46.2K followers, 162.8K engagements "I just finished organizing the schedule for my Fall [----] course on Global Economic History. With only [--] lectures of [--] minutes (plus two midterms) one must make painful choices about what to leave out. Honestly this should be a two-semester course. On the bright side theres again a long waitlist of students (as the classroom is filled to capacity) so maybe someday Ill convince the powers that be to let me have two semesters. What didnt make the cut this year is Africa. A real pity. I find Africas economic history fascinating for many reasons and it is essential to any course labeled as" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1960614778621063445) 2025-08-27T08:06Z 46.2K followers, 43.3K engagements "No sigue sin entenderlo. Si cerramos a la inmigracin y se vuelven 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados probablemente el PIB per cpita caera. Estara EUFORICO que cayese el PIB per cpita. Pero el bienestar de todas las generaciones mayores y jvenes subira. Ahora los mayores estn teniendo cuidadores inmigrantes que s incrementan su bienestar pero estn destruyendo el bienestar de los jvenes. Nos estamos dando un lujo el cuidado actual de los mayores que esta ANIQUILANDO el futuro de Espaa en 2050" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960684772788736215) 2025-08-27T12:44Z 46.2K followers, 20.4K engagements "For economists interested in growth this falls most anticipated release was Breakneck: Chinas Quest to Engineer the Future by Dan Wang (@danwwang). The buzz had been building for months and I was counting the days like kids once did for the next Harry Potter book. When my copy arrived on my Kindle on August [--] I couldn't resist and started reading it right away. By sheer coincidence I was in Yangzhou at the time a city sitting on the Grand Canal arguably the greatest engineering project in Chinas history and the location of the China Grand Canal Museum. Since Wang insists China is a nation of" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1961408718148649433) 2025-08-29T12:40Z 46.2K followers, 55.9K engagements "Cada vez que escribo sobre pensiones siempre aparece un listo con la misma cantinela: el problema no es que las pensiones sean altas es que los salarios en Espaa son bajos. Este argumento cumple con las tres caractersticas que tanto gustan al espaol medio: [--] Te permite subirte a la atalaya de la superioridad moral. Quin puede estar en contra de salarios ms altos Es como estar en contra de la paz las florecitas del campo o la tortilla de patatas. [--] Es sencillo y no exige esfuerzo mental no sea que pensar provoque un tumor cerebral. [--] Es incorrecto. El problema fundamental del sistema de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962334033930551651) 2025-09-01T01:57Z 46.2K followers, 273.6K engagements "September [--] always the hardest day to live away from where ones heart lies" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1964864331176350116) 2025-09-08T01:32Z 46.2K followers, 56.4K engagements "If you're an economist and haven't heard about the double descent phenomenon you might be overlooking one of the most interesting developments in computer science and statistics today. Personally I haven't come across anything as fascinating since I first learned about Markov chain Monte Carlo in the fall of [----]. Let me walk you through the idea with an example and a figure from my recent survey Deep Learning for Solving Economic Models (check my post from yesterday): Step [--]. Draw [--] random points from the function Y = 2(1 - e-x + sin(x)) and plot them in red (panel [--] top left in the figure" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965747635207213276) 2025-09-10T12:02Z 46.2K followers, 163.7K engagements "In my post yesterday I described the double descent phenomenon: in many situations massively over-parametrized models outperform simpler models out of sample. As I emphasized this is one of the most surprising and intriguing developments in computer science and statistics in recent decades and it has important implications for economics. The double descent phenomenon raises many questions most still unanswered or only partially answered despite intense work by top researchers. Today I will sketch one key element of the emerging picture: the inductive bias of deep learning. This requires some" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1966132081454465348) 2025-09-11T13:29Z 46.2K followers, 61.5K engagements "Hoy ha salido publicada en @elmundoes una entrevista que @dprietoelmundo me hizo hace unas semanas: Hablo de muchas cosas desde inmigracin hasta vivienda. Pero personalmente la parte que me parece ms importante es la que incluyo en el pantallazo. Espaa necesita un cambio radical de direccin. El sistema actual est sacrificando a todos los menores de [--] aos en el altar del estatus quo. Y lo peor Que encima los que disfrutan de este estatus quo ni se dan cuenta de ello y que la alternativa que parece venir no va a ser tal. El [--] de diciembre de [----] hace casi [--] aos publiqu La incierta deriva de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966562281161920739) 2025-09-12T17:59Z 46.2K followers, 179.2K engagements "El declogo del buen negacionista de pensiones ☕📜 Esto de las pensiones ya le toca a usted las narices. Cada vez que se sienta en su terraza favorita en Lagasca a tomarse un caf y pastitas abre el peridico y zas la columna de un niato hablando del problema de las pensiones en Espaa. Cmo va a disfrutar as de su bien merecida jubilacin No se preocupe. En un ejercicio de servicio pblico aqu tiene un declogo que puede emplear en cualquier situacin. Lalo un par de veces memorcelo y no volvern a amargarle el caf de media maana: [--] Lo ms importante: esto es un bulo. No hay problema alguno de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966854153667285452) 2025-09-13T13:19Z 46.2K followers, 475.9K engagements "Hoy estoy de enhorabuena @LaVanguardia ha decidido regalarme un homenaje inesperado: una pgina entera (s una pgina entera) dedicada a atizarle a mi libro La factura del cupo cataln con @frdelatorre. Y lo firma nada menos que Manel Prez el adjunto al director: Hace falta mejor prueba de que el libro ha tocado hueso La tctica inicial del nacionalismo cataln fue ignorar el libro confiando en que pasara desapercibido. Mala suerte: el libro como nos recuerdan muchos lectores se lee con facilidad se entiende y ha vendido francamente bien. As que alguien tena que hacer el trabajo sucio y al pobre" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967311043845333275) 2025-09-14T19:34Z 46.2K followers, 169.1K engagements "📢 Anuncio especial sobre mi libro La factura del cupo cataln (con @frdelatorre) Con este post me comprometo a donar ntegramente los derechos de autor (regalas) que me correspondan del libro a la Asociacin Espaola Contra el Cncer: 👉 Desde el primer cntimo hasta el ltimo. No s cunto dinero ser pues la editorial todava no ha liquidado nada pero eso es irrelevante. @frdelatorre y yo no escribimos este libro por dinero. Al contrario: nos ha costado tiempo que podramos haber dedicado a otras actividades mucho mejor remuneradas adems de algn que otro enfado con personas influyentes. Pero como" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1967352852264648717) 2025-09-14T22:20Z 46.2K followers, 56.1K engagements "Time to reorganize universities from scratch I have been thinking a lot about what it means to be a university in [----] once AI has arrived. My approach to learning new topics has undergone a significant change. Instead of relying only on textbooks or papers I now integrate LLMs into my self-education. The result My learning productivity has skyrocketed. Even more striking: I have reduced by 90% my dependence on colleagues and friends when exploring a new subject. Gone are the days of sending an email to a friend at University X asking Whats a good way to start learning about Y But this raises" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969391439248327102) 2025-09-20T13:21Z 46.2K followers, 78.3K engagements "📊 El tema del da es la encuesta de La Vanguardia y el subidn que otorga a Aliana Catalana (AC) y en menor medida a Vox. Entre ambos suman [--] escaos solo uno menos que el PSC. Diez lecciones que extraigo de la encuesta: [--] AC ya est por encima de los [--] escaos que le da la encuesta. Lo ms probable es que haya adelantado tanto a ERC como a Junts y se haya convertido en el primer partido nacionalista cataln en nmero de escaos. Mi estimacin puntual para unas elecciones hoy en Catalua sera: AC [--] ERC [--] Junts [--]. [--] Los encuestadores infravaloran a AC a propsito. Es un caso clsico de coste" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969769877599596926) 2025-09-21T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 342.7K engagements "@fjramosr98 Usted interprete lo que quiera. Pero un partido liderado por Espinosa de los Monteros ser un fracaso electoral. Fuera de las seoras que van a comprar croquetas de jamn al Mallorca de Serrano no le va a votar nadie" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1969782881187750137) 2025-09-21T15:16Z 46.2K followers, 130.9K engagements "El [--] de septiembre escriba que el PP poda encontrarse pronto con una probabilidad razonable con que su argumento de que tena que gobernar la lista ms votada le estallase en la cara y que todos los que dicen el PP gan las elecciones generales de [----] y por tanto debera gobernar (no no las gan fue solo la lista ms votada) tendran que tragarse sus palabras. Hoy circula una encuesta que apunta a este escenario: el ascenso de Vox y la fortaleza del PSOE comindose a Sumar colocaran al PSOE como la fuerza ms votada aunque la derecha nacional tuviese una clara mayora absoluta. S s lo que me van a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973427719141491199) 2025-10-01T16:40Z 46.2K followers, 63.7K engagements "Este hilo de Zigor Aldama que enlazo merece leerse entero con mucha atencin. Dira que mis impresiones de China basadas tanto en mi investigacin acadmica como en mis visitas (la ltima hace unas semanas) coinciden con las de @zigoraldama en un 85%. Solo matizara la primera frase: Aceptemos que Occidente est en vas de subdesarrollo. No no es Occidente en general es Europa Occidental. Una diferencia pequea en apariencia pero crucial. Este verano he estado en Espaa y en Jiangsu. El coche medio en las calles de Oviedo o Salamanca es peor (y ms antiguo) que el coche medio en Yangzhou o Nanjing. Lo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974147392849981820) 2025-10-03T16:19Z 46.2K followers, 67.5K engagements "🧠 Las cinco grandes preguntas abiertas a las que nadie tiene una respuesta de la ms sencilla a la ms compleja: [--] Por qu la gravedad es tan dbil frente a las dems fuerzas y la masa del bosn de Higgs tan pequea respecto a la escala de Planck [--] Cul es la naturaleza de la materia oscura que compone la mayor parte del universo [--] Qu es exactamente la energa oscura que acelera su expansin [--] Cmo unificar la mecnica cuntica y la relatividad general en una teora coherente del todo [--] 🤔 Y por qu el PP tras elegir a nulidades absolutas como Rajoy y Casado insiste en lderes tan intiles como Feijo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974500649363439815) 2025-10-04T15:43Z 46.2K followers, 88.8K engagements "A few days ago I emphasized the importance of the intellectual Turing test. Its an old idea inspired by Turings original test for artificial intelligence. Claim: You only truly understand an intellectual position if you can articulate and defend it so convincingly that a knowledgeable observer cannot tell whether you actually believe it. Example: you pass the test if you can [--] Defend the case for tariffs for [--] minutes (e.g. the infant industry argument increasing returns to scale strategic trade ) and [--] Defend the case against tariffs for [--] minutes (e.g. comparative advantage differences in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976661771420098889) 2025-10-10T14:51Z 46.2K followers, 127.7K engagements "Ayer en un largo y aburrido viaje de avin me dio por hacer nmeros electorales. ✈ Cada da al PP se le mueren unos [---] votantes y solo le entran unos [---] nuevos de jvenes que cumplen [--] aos. 👉 Prdida neta: unos [---] votantes diarios. Ser interesante ver el panorama electoral espaol en [----]. 🗳" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977397506947359011) 2025-10-12T15:34Z 46.2K followers, 140.3K engagements "I know Im late to congratulate Joel Mokyr here on X but I have a good excuse. When I opened my iPhone this morning and saw the announcement I was so happy that I literally forgot my laptop at home (and I dont have a computer in my office). For the first time in [--] years I arrived on campus without my bag laptop Penn ID or office keys. Fortunately I had a credit card in the car. I had to tailgate an undergrad into the Econ building improvise my lecture with a mix of an impromptu class on Mokyrs contributions and a last-minute download of the slides from the classroom computer and then shuffle" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977826038873837910) 2025-10-13T19:57Z 46.2K followers, 121.4K engagements "Last Thursday I had an interesting dinner with two prominent economists. Soon the conversation turned to Joel Mokyrs work and its relationship with @danwwangs recent book Breakneck: Chinas Quest to Engineer the Future. Mokyr has long argued that Europes Republic of Letters encouraged broad scientific and technological innovation by providing a setting where new ideas could be evaluated and disseminated. For him Europe occupied the ideal midpoint between political fragmentation and cultural unity: enough polycentrism to prevent the suppression of ideas by heavy-handed rulers but enough common" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979916832573407313) 2025-10-19T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 152.4K engagements "Two fresh books just landed on my desk (thank you to the authors for the complimentary copies). Ive got a long flight to Europe next week only room in the bag for one. Which should win the seat-mate contest" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1986815248397984012) 2025-11-07T15:17Z 46.2K followers, 36.6K engagements "@tatin17 @MrtnzAlvrz Siendo su padre quien es a Espinosa de los Monteros solo le admitieron en E-2 no en E-3. Creo que ya queda dicho todo sobre su capacidad intelectual y de trabajo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987872744684273921) 2025-11-10T13:19Z 46.2K followers, 420.1K engagements "During my lectures last week at the ECB and the Bank of Spain on deep learning I realized that many people in economics and econometrics often overlook the fact that what constitutes a good representation of the data (the topic of my previous post) depends entirely on the task at hand. A classic illustration I always use to make this point is Covers Theorem. Let me start with the intuition. Imagine that you have two-dimensional data (see the left panel of the figure below). The data are already normalized. For example one dimension may be age and the other income. The task is to separate" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990075919856250896) 2025-11-16T15:14Z 46.2K followers, 70.8K engagements "Hoy publico junto al increble Jon Gonzlez (@Jongonzlz) la ltima entrega de mi serie Pensiones y racionalidad en El Confidencial: 🔗 El sistema actual es injusto e insostenible. Pero reformarlo es polticamente casi imposible. https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/la-mano-visible/2025-03-22/pensiones-racionalidad-iii_4090468/ https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/la-mano-visible/2025-03-22/pensiones-racionalidad-iii_4090468/" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1903430536032288771) 2025-03-22T12:56Z 46.2K followers, 41K engagements "As the world debates new economic architectures a reminder that some like Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) have been spectacularly wrong before about international macroeconomics: Spain will almost certainly be forced to leave the euro and default on its debt or else suffer many years of crippling unemployment rising debt and economic stagnation. Source: As of tonight: Spain is still in the euro. Total employment is up 18.2% (2024.Q4) a historical high vs. when article was written (2011.Q1). Our private sector is a net lender to the world: something that is probably a first in our economic" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916605928293425583) 2025-04-27T21:30Z 46.2K followers, 195.7K engagements "La tabla ms demoledora de nuestro libro La factura del cupo cataln con @frdelatorre. Usamos los ltimos datos consolidados disponibles (2022) pero los resultados de aos anteriores y con toda probabilidad los de los aos siguientes muestran el mismo patrn. Alguien me puede explicar por qu es justo que Andaluca reciba [-----] euros por habitante para financiarse pero el Pas Vasco tenga 6.614" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924184266201596075) 2025-05-18T19:24Z 46.2K followers, 166.6K engagements "Hoy @cultrun publica una columna muy interesante: el salario real medio no solo no sube en Espaa sino que cae. Hay un punto que @cultrun menciona de pasada pero que merece destacarse. En Espaa tampoco hay ricos. No es que el salario real medio sea bajo porque los ricos se lo llevan todo. Es que sencillamente en Espaa no hay dinero. Segn los datos de la Agencia Tributaria en [----] solo haba [---] personas en toda Espaa con patrimonios iguales o superiores a [--] millones de euros: Incluso dejando de lado el posible ocultamiento de patrimonio (que no es tan fcil como muchos suponen cuando llegas a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928052361647509901) 2025-05-29T11:34Z 46.2K followers, 582.6K engagements "Esa respuesta no tiene ni pies ni cabeza. No se trata de si uno quiere tener una casa grande sino de si vive en una sociedad que te la permite alcanzar. Yo obviamente no he buscado maximizar mi ingreso: soy profesor universitario y gano muchsimo menos que muchos compaeros de doctorado que se dedicaron a hacer dinero. Por qu Porque pocas cosas me han dado ms satisfaccin que poder hablar de macroeconoma con mis hroes intelectuales como Ed Prescott (q.e.p.d.) o Tom Sargent. Tener una casa ms modesta no es algo que me haya impuesto la vida. Es una eleccin ma. Mi argumento es mucho ms simple:" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1928188293906104596) 2025-05-29T20:34Z 46.2K followers, 42.7K engagements "As several people requested I am posting the video of Lecture [--] Economic Thought from Aristotle to Scholasticism: All future videos will be posted here: Thanks https://sites.google.com/view/foundations-economic-thought/topicsauthuser=0 https://youtu.be/AcRGlVCJP_gsi=7Ev5J17yD1lK08DO https://sites.google.com/view/foundations-economic-thought/topicsauthuser=0 https://youtu.be/AcRGlVCJP_gsi=7Ev5J17yD1lK08DO" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1936096556698284487) 2025-06-20T16:19Z 46.2K followers, 47.7K engagements "Today I would like to discuss the evolution of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Turkey. Why Because Turkey is one of the most fascinating demographic experiences I know (and the data are pretty good). In some aspects Turkey fits the template of the fertility phenomena I focus on; in others its quite unique. I have a lot to say so Ill split this into two partsone today one tomorrow. Lets start with the total fertility rate. Data come from the Turkish Statistical Institute the official statistical agency: 🔗 In [----] Turkeys TFR was [----] about [----] children below the replacement rate. For" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937104977580761281) 2025-06-23T11:06Z 46.2K followers, 64.5K engagements "Hoy se publica en @elconfidencial mi artculo (en abierto) sobre las elecciones generales de [----] (s [----] no [----] ni 2027): Mi tesis es que el prximo gobierno del PP ser un fracaso tanto por factores estructurales como coyunturales y que ese fracaso marcar el cierre de un ciclo poltico que Espaa ha ido agotando desde [----]. Escrib el artculo el martes por la maana y lo envi a publicar ese mismo da. Inclu este prrafo: La segunda razn coyuntural sern los escndalos de corrupcin que salpicarn al PP durante la legislatura. Si algo hemos aprendido del caso Cerdn es que la corrupcin est incrustada en" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1941444883979341984) 2025-07-05T10:31Z 46.2K followers, 122.2K engagements "El cupo para todos es para la hacienda pblica lo que la teora del flogisto a la qumica moderna: una idea tan ridculamente estpida que casi no merece ni el esfuerzo de refutarla. Pero como estamos en Espaa no queda ms remedio. Empecemos por lo bsico: qu es un cupo Porque si algo he aprendido en Espaa durante los dos ltimos meses de hablar de la financiacin autonmica es que cada uno entiende los trminos como le da la gana. En comentarios a mis posts he ledo interpretaciones del cupo que no se sostienen ni cinco segundos. As que vayamos a la fuente: la definicin del Gobierno vasco para que nadie" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945268131502452800) 2025-07-15T23:43Z 46.2K followers, 206.3K engagements "Lo que ms me asombra del llamado principio de ordinalidad es la cantidad de personas que se autodefinen como de izquierdas y lo defienden simplemente porque se aplica a Catalua lo que lo convierte ipso facto en algo progresista. Si la misma idea se utilizara para justificar que Madrid o determinados grupos de renta alta pagaran menos impuestos o recibieran ms transferencias esos mismos comentaristas lo denunciaran como una aberracin neoliberal y clasista de manual . 📌 Un ejemplo sencillo: el nuevo impuesto bancario aprobado hace unos meses se reparte entre comunidades segn el PIB bajo el" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1947687976139370690) 2025-07-22T15:59Z 46.2K followers, 37.1K engagements "De nuevo la misma cantinela de siempre esta vez en boca de Salvador Illa sobre la supuesta acumulacin insolidaria de recursos en la Comunidad de Madrid. Pero repasemos cmo funciona realmente el sistema de financiacin (lo he explicado en detalle en muchos otros posts): 📌 IVA y Especiales: Se reparten segn consumo no donde se liquidan. Si llenas el depsito en Vigo en un gasolinera de Repsol el [--] % del IVA autonmico va a la Xunta aunque Repsol liquide en Madrid (el otro 50% del IVA es estatal no de la Comunidad de Madrid). 📌 Sociedades: [---] % estatal. No entra en la financiacin autonmica. 📌" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951987054440522163) 2025-08-03T12:42Z 46.2K followers, 57K engagements "El surrealismo kafkiano de la discusin de poltica econmica espaola: Salvador Illa acusa a la Comunidad de Madrid que recibe del sistema de financiacin autonmica [-----] por habitante (295 menos que la media del sistema comn) de acumulacin insolidaria para justificar que Catalua que recibe [-----] por habitante (422 ms que la media) reciba an ms. En la lgica del PSC la Comunidad de Madrid que est por debajo de la media de financiacin es culpable; mientras que Catalua que est por encima es vctima. Por cierto todo esto lo explicamos en detalle @frdelatorre en nuestro libro La factura del cupo cataln" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952004821768085722) 2025-08-03T13:53Z 46.2K followers, 116.7K engagements "Atribuir el reciente dinamismo econmico de Madrid en relacin a Catalua a su condicin de capital plantea varios problemas: 1) Catalua fue ms dinmica que Madrid durante el franquismo cuando Espaa era un pas mucho ms centralizado que hoy. Esa centralizacin no impidi que Catalua superara a otras regiones en crecimiento econmico. 2) Durante las primeras dcadas de democracia (19782000) Catalua mantuvo un dinamismo comparable al de Madrid. 3) El retroceso relativo de Catalua empieza en los aos [----] y se acelera a partir de [----]. Madrid era tan capital en [----] como lo era en [----] o lo es hoy. O lo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952367251933266315) 2025-08-04T13:53Z 46.2K followers, 176.9K engagements "I first encountered Peter Temin as a college freshman. I was lazily browsing the economics section of my college bookstore when I came across a volume titled New Economic History: Selected Readings which he edited. The title caught my interest so I purchased it. I believe I read the entire book within a few days. The chapters by Fogel Conrad and Meyer and Temin himself were captivating. As a freshman Im fairly sure I didnt grasp most of the arguments but the book had a significant influence on how I believed modern economic history could be studied. That perspective has mostly stayed with me" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1953479281838821542) 2025-08-07T15:32Z 46.2K followers, 56.6K engagements "It is well understood that different fertility rates lead to changes in demographic structures within a country. These differences may be regional (e.g. region A having higher fertility than region B) ethnic religious cultural or political. What is less appreciated is that in environments with low fertility those changes can be particularly fast. And these changes are followed by political transformations. Imagine that you have a country with groups A and B each with 50% of the population: [--] When fertility is high the total fertility rate (TFR) of group A is [--] and the TFR of group B is 3." [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1955278391772647490) 2025-08-12T14:41Z 46.2K followers, 83.1K engagements "Cul es el peor contraargumento posible contra el problema presupuestario que tenemos en Espaa ahora mismo con las pensiones pblicas Que este problema se soluciona de manera indolora si reducimos gastos innecesarios o incrementamos ingresos. Este contraargumento viene en dos versiones ambas igual de falaces. 🔹 Versin izquierda: Del lado del gasto: si reducimos el gasto en defensa Corona Iglesia o el rescate bancario hay dinero de sobra. Del lado de los ingresos: si reducimos el fraude fiscal o conseguimos que los ricos/la banca paguen lo que tienen que pagar hay dinero de sobra. 🔹 Versin" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957294703118090729) 2025-08-18T04:13Z 46.2K followers, 323.6K engagements "Un factor que se olvida a menudo en Espaa es que nuestro sistema moderno de Seguridad Social establecido con la Ley 193/1963 sobre Bases de la Seguridad Social y desarrollado por el Decreto 907/1966 empleaba las cotizaciones sociales de trabajadores y empresas no solo para pagar las pensiones contributivas sino tambin para cubrir sanidad prestaciones familiares y otras prestaciones sociales (pantallazo de la ley copiado). Fue solo con la Ley 24/1997 de Consolidacin y Racionalizacin del Sistema de la Seguridad Social y sobre todo con la Ley 66/1997 de Medidas Fiscales Administrativas y del" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1959132885597950155) 2025-08-23T05:57Z 46.2K followers, 35.8K engagements "Ese argumento lo he escuchado mil veces y mil veces me ha parecido que no solo no tiene sentido alguno sino que atenta contra la lgica econmica ms bsica: los salarios son endgenos. Si hay pocos espaoles que quieren trabajar en los supermercados pasarn dos cosas. Primero los supermercados organizarn sus servicios de manera menos intensiva en trabajadores en parte con automatizacin y en parte vendiendo comida de una manera diferente (por ejemplo en vez de abrir de [--] a [--] abrirn solo de [--] a 5). Segundo los salarios relativos de los trabajadores en los supermercados subirn lo que atraer ms" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1960494491892068746) 2025-08-27T00:08Z 46.2K followers, 131.3K engagements "Usted no me est entendiendo en absoluto. Si yo quisiera maximizar el PIB de Espaa estara a favor de traer ms inmigrantes. Ese el argumento (incorrecto) de preocuparse de que cierren empresas por no tener mano de obra. Es precisamente porque no quiero maximizar el PIB sino el bienestar de los espaoles que quiero cerrar las fronteras espaolas a la inmigracin no cualificada a cal y canto. De hecho estara encantado no EUFRICO de que el PIB cayese un 5% si abandonan Espaa unos 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados. Tendramos un 5% menos de PIB pero ms bienestar. Espero que quede claro" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960683192903520555) 2025-08-27T12:37Z 46.2K followers, 128K engagements "📌 Recordatorio peridico: la idea del cupo para todos es una estupidez. Ningn pas avanzado del mundo lo tiene porque ningn pas puede funcionar as. ❌ Cupo para todos NO es el sistema de EE. UU. NO es el de Suiza NO es el de Alemania NO es el de Canad. ❌ Y no esos sistemas no son equivalentes a un cupo para todos ni se le parecen remotamente. 👉 Quien diga lo contrario o miente o es ignorante (o ambas cosas). Lo que han acordado ERC y PSC tampoco se parece en nada absolutamente nada a los sistemas de EE. UU. Suiza Alemania o Canad. Estar en contra de los cupos no es estar en contra del" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1963328603049087437) 2025-09-03T19:49Z 46.2K followers, 35.3K engagements "I have just posted my survey paper Deep Learning for Solving Economic Models on my webpage: In one or two weeks it will also circulate as a working paper at the NBER and CEPR. Still I wanted to let people know already since I am quite happy with the outcome largely thanks to some fantastic early feedback I got. As I have often argued the ongoing revolution in deep learning is transforming how we solve dynamic equilibrium economic models. At its core solving a model amounts to approximating unknown target functions (such as the value function of agents a decision rule or a best response" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965393226556486120) 2025-09-09T12:33Z 46.2K followers, 147.7K engagements "S s y s. Ese ingeniero esta cobrando una pensin que es un 50% ms alta que el valor actuarial de sus cotizaciones capitalizadas. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1966869582632640732) 2025-09-13T14:20Z 46.2K followers, 119.6K engagements "Mis lectores habituales saben que insisto mucho en que el dinero pblico que nos gastamos en cosas como ayudas a ONGs fundaciones o medios de comunicacin no es mucho dentro del ocano que representa el presupuesto de las administraciones pblicas y que por tanto cortarlo no es la solucin a nuestros problemas presupuestarios. Algunas veces cuando lanzo este mensaje me queda un sabor agridulce. En primer lugar porque no queda claro que yo sera el primero en cortar el 99% de esas ayudas. Que sea poco dinero no significa que uno tenga que tirarlo a la basura. Pero y esto es mucho ms importante por" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1967187263650939109) 2025-09-14T11:22Z 46.2K followers, 53.9K engagements "No las cifras que presenta Prez son todas pero todas desde la primera hasta la ltima una tontera. Confunde churras con merinas y no entiende cmo funciona el sistema de financiacin autonmico. Por ejemplo cuando habla de los funcionarios de la Administracin Central del Estado. El IRPF que pagan esos funcionarios (y el IVA o los especiales que generan) y que corresponderan de los tramos autonmicos se descuenta de la financiacin de la Comunidad de Madrid por medio de los tres fondos autonmicos. As que la Comunidad Madrid no recibe ni un euro de esos impuestos. Es algo trivial de saber pero que" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1967912920198557981) 2025-09-16T11:26Z 46.2K followers, 20.9K engagements "This week and next I am covering the years [--------] in my undergraduate economic history course. Each time I return to this material I am struck by how much of the modern world takes shape in that era often more so than in the classic narratives centered on Britains Industrial Revolution or the political upheavals of [--------]. A time traveler from [----] landing in [----] would encounter a world that feels remote to us today from clothing styles to the absence of electricity and telephones in homes. By [----] the same traveler would find a world far more recognizable. Even modern mass politics (and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970825823125934376) 2025-09-24T12:21Z 46.2K followers, 230.5K engagements "Uno de los grandes misterios de la derecha nacional en Espaa es por qu tantos de sus votantes quieren cambiar el sistema electoral del Congreso. He odo este argumento mil veces (la ltima en una charla en Madrid) enunciado incluso por personas que por su educacin y nivel profesional deberan entenderlo mejor. Y no es solo mi experiencia. Una encuesta reciente: 🔗 documenta que aproximadamente un 40% de votantes del centro a la extrema derecha cree que la reforma electoral es la reforma constitucional ms importante. El misterio: de todos los sistemas normales que se me ocurren el actual es de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971631974566842840) 2025-09-26T17:44Z 46.2K followers, 106.3K engagements "Me alucina la cantidad de comentaristas que en respuesta a mi entrada de ayer sobre el sistema electoral suean con impedir la presencia de partidos nacionalistas en el Congreso con ocurrencias estrafalarias: que si obligar a que las listas tengan al menos un 5% de votos en todas las circunscripciones (o en la mayora) o directamente prohibirles presentarse a las elecciones generales. Primero: las consecuencias seran txicas. Como bien nos ense Edmund Burke (al que por cierto dudo que ninguno de estos comentaristas haya ledo) no se puede legislar contra la realidad. Y la realidad es que un" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971908006334882027) 2025-09-27T12:01Z 46.2K followers, 184.1K engagements "Was World War I unavoidable I often get this question most recently after posting my lecture slides on The Strange Death of Liberal Europe a couple of days ago. The answer matters for two reasons. First because the consequences of World War I are still with us. As I note in the slide reproduced below without the war and the subsequent Russian Revolution Karl Marx would be as faintly remembered today as Pierre-Joseph Proudhon or Ferdinand Lassalle; Hitler and Stalin would have been forgotten by history; and Lenin and Churchill known only to academic specialists in Russian or British history." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982264853705200044) 2025-10-26T01:55Z 46.2K followers, 84.6K engagements "Hoy publico un artculo en @elconfidencial sobre la poltica exterior y de defensa de Estados Unidos: 🔗 El texto nace de una constatacin tan simple como deprimente: tras leer centenares de columnas uno advierte que en Europa y en Espaa de manera particularmente llamativa apenas se entiende la lgica interna de la poltica exterior y de defensa norteamericana. No se trata de compartirla o rechazarla sino de algo previo y ms elemental: comprender por qu un pas toma las decisiones desde su propia perspectiva estratgica. Basta con mirar los comentarios al artculo para comprobar que incluso despus de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987131620051075358) 2025-11-08T12:14Z 46.2K followers, 52.7K engagements "Interesante. En EE.UU. se ve ya mucho en el Partido Republicano y su nueva generacin de lderes. En Espaa como sabes yo siempre he aventurado hacia el [----]. Sin embargo el colapso del PP que he visto en las ltimas ocho semanas es ms acelerado de lo que yo aventuraba (aunque con las elecciones de Extremadura todo son dudas). Primero Vox contina subiendo en todas las encuestas y por primera vez est mordiendo en el electorado del PSOE mientras que el PP se estanca o baja. S ya s lo que va a decir todo el mundo (Ivn Redondo manipulando los datos) pero Vox parece haber dado con la tecla con Carlos" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987629483101225440) 2025-11-09T21:12Z 46.2K followers, 184.9K engagements "Yesterday I gave the keynote address at the Bank of Spains Economics of Artificial Intelligence conference on Deep Learning in Economics: A Geometric Interpretation. The central point of my talk was that deep learning succeeds in economics because it offers a constructive way to work with better geometric representations of the underlying function-approximation problem all without relying heavily on domain knowledge. Sometimes the useful representation lives in lower dimensions; sometimes in higher ones. The key is that deep learning finds it for us. Just a few hours after my talk" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989315513886142577) 2025-11-14T12:52Z 46.2K followers, 70.6K engagements "Mitos del sistema fiscal espaol (IV) Contino con mi serie de mitos del sistema fiscal espaol. Mito IV: El sistema de concierto vasco es igual/semejante/parecido a los sistemas federales de Estados Unidos Alemania Suiza y otros pases. Realidad: El sistema de concierto vasco es nico en el mundo y no se parece prcticamente en nada a lo que existe en Estados Unidos Alemania Suiza y otros pases con estructuras federales. La afirmacin no es ma es de Pedro Luis Uriarte (@ElConciertoPLUS) que lo denomina como: UN MODELO NICO EN EL MUNDO Un concierto tiene dos caractersticas: 1) El territorio bajo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923668106099958240) 2025-05-17T09:13Z 46.2K followers, 150.8K engagements "Gracias. Yo ca en la cuenta cuando hiciste un pantallazo de mi comentario sobre el sueldo de un ministro en Espaa: [--------] euros brutos anuales en [----]. Le las respuestas y me qued de piedra. Hubo quien afirm que con [------] euros brutos en Madrid se viva de cine. As que hice el siguiente ejercicio. Supuse que tena el [--] % de entrada para el piso ya ahorrado mir qu hipoteca te conceden hoy en Madrid con ese sueldo y busqu pisos en Mirasierra el barrio donde crec. Est bien sin duda pero no es precisamente Haverford. Resultado: puedes comprarte un piso de tres dormitorios decente en alguno de" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928059910975041755) 2025-05-29T12:04Z 46.2K followers, 171.4K engagements "Daniel: Mi argumento es mucho ms sencillo: Si ests en el 0.2% superior de la distribucin de renta en otros pases occidentales tienes acceso a ciertas cosas en la vida que el 0.2% de la distribucin en Espaa no te permite. Esto demuestra simple y llanamente que Espaa es un pas pobre: son pobres los que estn en el 10% de la distribucin y son pobres los que estn en el 99.8% de la distribucin. Y si piensas que con 50k netos al mes puedes permitirte lujos de verdad lo siento mucho por ti. Obviamente nunca has disfrutado de la vida. Si en vez de dedicarte a salir por la tele te hubieses dedicado a" [X Link](https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1931357124870697305) 2025-06-07T14:26Z 46.2K followers, 305.5K engagements "The narrative linking Japans stagnation since [----] to its financial crisis is largely a myth more recently discussed in this episode of @dwarkeshpodcast. Japans growth performance is almost entirely explained by poor demographics. See Table [--] of my paper with @King_ofSweden and Wen Yao The Wealth of Working Nations: If you look beyond GDP or GDP per capitaand instead use GDP per working-age adult (defined in several robust ways to consider for instance that Japanese retire later than in other G7 economies) or output per hour workedJapan has kept pace with its peer group. In fact from [----] to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933252119924256961) 2025-06-12T19:56Z 46.2K followers, 175.4K engagements "Mexicos Fertility Collapse 📉 In [----] Mexicos total fertility rate (TFR) was just [----]. Yeslower than the U.S. (1.62 CDC). Yet every time I mention it people react with disbelief. 🧾 Slide from Mexicos official stats agency the Instituto Nacional de Estadstica y Geografa @INEGI: 🔗 Lets put this in context: In 1970: TFR = [----] In 2014: TFR = [----] In 2024: Early microdata (Subsistema de Informacin sobre Nacimientos SINAC) points to another dropbut lets stay cautious with early-release numbers. 📊 Whats striking: Mexicos [----] births [----] levels. Yet the population today is [--] larger. ✅ Also:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945104197021471117) 2025-07-15T12:52Z 46.2K followers, 165K engagements "Suiza NO tiene un sistema de cupo para todos. Quien afirme lo contrario o miente o no sabe de lo que habla. Suiza aplica un modelo de federalismo competitivo muy parecido al de Estados Unidos. La federacin recauda impuestos propios: [--] Impuesto federal sobre la renta [--] Impuesto federal sobre sociedades [--] IVA Y los cantones tienen su propio IRPF y su impuesto sobre sociedades cantonal. Cada nivel institucional tiene su base impositiva claramente delimitada. No estamos ante un sistema de cupo para todos porque no se cumple ninguno de los cuatro elementos que segn el propio Gobierno vasco definen" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945414747148673306) 2025-07-16T09:26Z 46.2K followers, 25.6K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JesusFerna7026 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde posts on X about espaa, sistema, lo, de la the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +743%
- [--] Month [---------] +353%
- [--] Months [---------] +81%
- [--] Year [----------] +156,519%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +56%
- [--] Month [---] +334%
- [--] Months [---] +121%
- [--] Year [---] +13,433%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +1.50%
- [--] Month [------] +16%
- [--] Months [------] +133%
- [--] Year [------] +33,816%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries 12.59% finance 5.93% travel destinations 4.44% technology brands 2.22% luxury brands 0.74% automotive brands 0.74% stocks 0.74% products 0.74% currencies 0.74%
Social topic influence espaa #2156, sistema #28, lo #493, de la #2973, como 10.37%, sobre 8.89%, solo 8.89%, aos 8.15%, mi 8.15%, porque 7.41%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @frdelatorre @demiranda123 @k1915580392 @jongonzlz @ggga1357 @josasis @elconfidencial @dieterlaan19838 @aei @kingofsweden @bruscosandro @luisabeledo @clotildo1999 @marquesultra @chunta @obloque @jeanclaudefox2 @chrisphelanecon @cacerolohd @moigrem
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Im sharing my slide deck on the demographic future of humanity 🔗 Slides: prepared for the keynote address I will give tomorrow to the 7th EBRD and CEPR Research Symposium on The Economics of Demographic Change: 🔗 Symposium: Here are a few key ideas Ill be discussing tomorrow some of which even economists tracking population trends may not fully appreciate: [--] Fertility is falling everywhere: rich and poor countries alike booming and stagnating economies secular and religious societies. The decline is happening far faster than anyone anticipated even me ten years ago [--] For example Colombias"
X Link 2025-06-01T20:48Z 46.2K followers, 1.2M engagements
"Olivier Blanchard (@ojblanchard1) had a provocative post yesterday about a higher preference of French people for leisure: I have learned nearly an infinite amount of economics from Olivier since I was an undergrad and he came to Spain to present a report on our unemployment problem so I feel a bit intimidated about pushing back on this idea. I am perfectly happy with the idea that preferences are heterogeneous: some people like leisure more than others. And the goal of economic policy should never be to maximize output but to maximize welfare. If most people in France enjoy sitting in the"
X Link 2026-01-28T13:13Z 46.2K followers, 230.7K engagements
"During the time I have participated in the policy debate (as my post yesterday on counterfactual Nobel prize winners confirmed) I have realized that one of the hardest things for many people to grasp is that there are four (person-dependent) groups of economists: [--] Group A: Great researcher and I agree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group B: Great researcher and I disagree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group C: Weak researcher but I agree with their policy recommendations. [--] Group D: Weak researcher and I disagree with their policy recommendations. (Yes the great/weak distinction"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:27Z 46.2K followers, 26.1K engagements
"Ok I finally accepted reality and upgraded to the $100-a-month Claude plan. The usage limits were getting on my nerves and for my academic research Claude is working noticeably better than ChatGPT. ChatGPT though still wins hands down for help with X posts or picking a movie to watch. Who would have told me just a few years ago that I would be spending more every month on AI tools than on my phone plan or my TV streaming services At this rate my AI bill is starting to look uncomfortably close to my monthly car lease payment. This is a new world"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:19Z 45.4K followers, 77.5K engagements
"I gave half of the survey paper to both ChatGPT and Claude to check notation consistency and suggest improvements (notation-heavy paper): 1) Claude's suggestions were more elegant; ChatGPT's were cumbersome and pedantic. 2) ChatGPT caught two minor inconsistencies that Claude missed. For now I'm using both in sequence😁 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012280565655884124 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012280565655884124"
X Link 2026-01-16T21:47Z 45.4K followers, 14K engagements
"There was a viral yet inaccurate post yesterday by @politicalmath about Chinas population: that many commentators have repeated on my own post: @politicalmath begins with a factual error and then compounds it with a logical fallacy. The factual error is the assumption that the one-child policy immediately reduced Chinas total fertility rate to one. This is false. First there were always dozens of exemptions to the policy. For example according to data compiled by Sarah Mellors Rodriguez by [----] only 35.4% of the population was unable to claim at least one exemption. Second enforcement was"
X Link 2026-01-21T12:27Z 46.1K followers, 49.8K engagements
"The [----] Revision of World Population Prospects from the UN Population Division (2024 WPP) has serious credibility problems both in data accuracy and in projection plausibility. This matters because it undermines rational demographic discussion. Heres the pattern: I present recent data from national statistical institutes and someone counters with [----] WPP figures either directly or via websites and AI tools that draw from it. The disconnect has become impossible to ignore. Let me illustrate with Chinas birth data from [----] to [----] plotted against the [----] WPP estimates and projections. In"
X Link 2026-01-23T16:24Z 46.1K followers, 44.5K engagements
"One key aspect of the recent global fertility decline is that it affects different groups unevenly. For example much of the recent fall appears concentrated among groups with lower average income or educational attainment. This represents a reversal relative to earlier historical patterns in which fertility tended to be higher among groups with lower income or education. This shift is visible both across countries and within countries. Across countries the U.S. now has higher fertility than countries such as China Turkey Iran Brazil Colombia Sri Lanka Thailand or Jamaica (to cite only a few"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:51Z 46.1K followers, 182.3K engagements
"One aspect of Keynes thought that is often overlooked is his concern about population. For example one reason he opposed the Versailles Treaty was his belief that Europe required a sophisticated division of labor to prevent mass starvation. Later in life in [----] he expressed serious worries that population would begin to shrink within a few decades leading to secular stagnation and underinvestment (see the excerpt from his [----] Galton Lecture below). In the case of the UK he was not far off. UK fertility has been below the replacement rate without interruption since [----] (so much for the"
X Link 2026-01-25T16:42Z 46.1K followers, 39K engagements
"Every time I post about fertility decline someone in the comments asks: why dont you talk about contraception Isnt that the obvious explanation This has nothing to do with contraception being a taboo topic. There are plenty of papers in top economics journals studying the effects of contraception on fertility. For example I include a screenshot of an outstanding paper by Pascaline Dupas (@DupasPascaline) Seema Jayachandran Adriana Lleras-Muney (@LlerasMuney) and Pauline Rossi which appeared in the American Economic Review a few months ago. The issue is statistical and it goes back to the very"
X Link 2026-01-26T19:38Z 46.1K followers, 51.9K engagements
"A reader Roberto Gmez (@Roberto08061521) left me a comment on one of my latest posts with some numbers he computed for Argentina on the average number of children per cohort (by age of women). I copy one of his figures. At least for Argentina there is not much evidence so far that delayed timing in childbearing will substantially change the basic observation: a fast and unprecedented drop in fertility. Is there delayed timing Yes. Is it a first-order explanation No. And before people tell me: Argentina had such a big economic crisis Yesterday I showed similar figures for many other countries."
X Link 2026-01-27T22:54Z 46.1K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Given the recent events in Iran I briefly examined the countrys demographic history. During the 1950s and 1960s Iran had one of the highest fertility rates in the world approximately [--] which led to a population explosion: from [--] million in [----] to nearly [--] million in [----] with annual growth rates often exceeding 3%. After some cyclical fluctuations fertility began to decline in the 1980s at a rapid rate. It only took Iran [--] years to go from a fertility rate of [----] in [----] to below replacement rate in [----]. This was one of the most rapid declines in fertility ever recorded. After 2000"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:03Z 45.4K followers, 41.3K engagements
"@_Herce 😀 Given my age my safe withdrawal rate (the annuity I can pay myself from my financial wealth and the historical performance of my portfolio) is [-----------] pretty close to 5%"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:08Z 45.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Screenshot from Figure [--] of the Cato study: low-skilled immigrants are a net fiscal loss over their life cycle. Even Cato's study recognizes that (though later the study attempts some "creative accounting" to muddy the waters). I have never ever denied that high-skilled immigrants are a net win over their life cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019249947506327610 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019249947506327610"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:21Z 45.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Las caractersticas electorales de las regiones evolucionan con el cambio social a veces de manera profunda. Uno de mis ejemplos favoritos es Londres. Por mucho tiempo los conservadores obtenan slidas mayoras parlamentarias entre los miembros del Parlamento elegidos en Londres. En el pantallazo adjunto (de wiki) se muestra la tabla de resultados de los Tories en el rea del Gran Londres. En los aos [--] y [--] los conservadores obtenan claras mayoras en el Gran Londres (como en [----] [--] de [--] diputados) o se mantenan incluso cuando a nivel nacional flojeaban (como en octubre de [----] [--] de 92"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:12Z 46.1K followers, 62.7K engagements
"@brusco_sandro 😂 The R2 falls quite a bit but the beta not that much"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:46Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@brusco_sandro Ramsey was born relatively early (1903) so it does not contradict my point that being born later matters much for longevity"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:52Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Un anlisis rpido de los resultados en Aragn con el escrutinio provisional ya casi cerrado (987% cuando escribo estas lneas) y sin haber tenido tiempo de revisar los datos a nivel ms desagregado. [--] El gran perdedor de la noche es el PP que se ha dejado con respecto a [----] dos escaos (de [--] a 26) [---] puntos (de 3551% a 3427%) y votos (de [-------] a 224.486; algunos menos cuando el escrutinio finalize). Estas eran unas elecciones convocadas por el PP en el momento en que crey oportuno y con vientos de cola claros (los escndalos del PSOE los accidentes ferroviarios el roto a Aragn de la propuesta"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:55Z 46.1K followers, 302.3K engagements
"@riclbscholar Lo mismo. Ya pas hace unos aos en Andaluca"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:23Z 46.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Solo hay que escuchar a @CarlosHQuero hablar por [--] minutos para darte cuenta de que tiene [--] puntos de IQ ms que Espinosa de los Monteros y que adems es culto. De hecho casi seguro que @CarlosHQuero hubiera aprobado contabilidad financiera en primera convocatoria (aunque en honor a la verdad no es algo muy difcil)"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:30Z 46.1K followers, 76.4K engagements
"@Teo_opinion @luisabeledo Pues conoce usted a pocos votantes de Vox. Yo conozco a muchsimos que saltaron de alegra al librarse de l. En todo caso comparar a Espinosa de los Monteros con Carlos Hernndez Quero es como comparar un Trabant de Alemania del Este con un Aston Martin"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:47Z 46.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@clotildo1999 @MarquesUltra @luisabeledo OD-P Ah me has perdido 😂😂😂😂"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:50Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@RecesvintoSpain Tengo que mirarlo en detalle empleando microdatos. Mi hiptesis ahora mismo es que el 50% de los votantes de SALF se iran a Vox el 50% a la abstencin"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:24Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@clotildo1999 @MarquesUltra Quien es ODP"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:22Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@DeMiranda123 @Jongonzlz @chunta @obloque Porque a los del BNG no les da la cabeza para ms. Son muy torpes. Pedir un concierto para Galicia una regin que recibe transferencias fiscales brutales del resto de Espaa es como que un cerdo haga propaganda del jamn serrano"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:05Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@DeMiranda123 @Jongonzlz @chunta @obloque Depende de qu haces con la SS. Pero olvidndonos de ella con un cupo real de cero (no negativo como ahora; cero sigue siendo un chollo porque es no pagar nada de los gastos comunes) el PV y Navarra tendran que rebajar su gasto en un 20%"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:29Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many hate economists because they play in policy discussions the same role as the kid who told you in second grade that Santa Claus does not exist (well since this was in Spain the Reyes Magos). You know it is true but you hate him even more precisely because you know he is right. People listen to Jon Stewart (populist left) or Oren Cass (populist right) because they want to escape reality. Stewart and Cass are the discontents of adulthood sellers of fantasies partly out of intellectual immaturity partly out of venal interests."
X Link 2026-02-13T14:11Z 46.2K followers, 67.2K engagements
"@JeanClaudeFox2 Funnily enough Parsons died in Germany while lecturing and he had studied in Heidelberg"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:02Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"In any case your point is a good reminder to outsiders obsessed with the ideological biases of economists: when I talk with the best researchers nowadays more often than not I cannot tell their politics beyond pure statistical inference (e.g. a high-income highly educated man in his 50s living in northern California usually votes x)"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:54Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@ggga1357 @ChrisPhelanEcon Who remembers today "Production of Commodities." except four weirdos at heterodox departments "Production of Commodities." was an enormous waste of time"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:22Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@noseque97973600 @ggga1357 @ChrisPhelanEcon I realized that. His comments are usually quite shallow but today he outdid himself. Do not read any of the books he recommended. This one A History of Economic Theory and Method Sixth Edition 6th Edition by Robert B. Ekelund Jr. and Robert F. Hbert"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:03Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@ciencia_invest @lefineder But remember that China was conquered. China was part of the Manchu empire in the same way that Peru was part of the Spanish empire. That is what so many people forget"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:18Z 46.1K followers, [---] engagements
"I have spent the last couple of days looking at convergence in East Asian economies (Japan South Korea China etc.) toward the U.S. The figure below uses the recently released Penn World Table (PWT) release 11.0: In orange it plots TFP growth in China and in a representative East Asian economy (an average across these economies) always relative to the U.S. A value of 2% in [----] in the left panel means that Chinas TFP grew [--] percentage points faster than U.S. TFP in that year. In blue I plot average relative TFP growth over 15-year windows. For China the series starts in [----] with the beginning"
X Link 2026-01-02T16:39Z 46.1K followers, 86.6K engagements
"Few facts are more surprising than that as of early [----] Latin America has a lower fertility rate than the U.S. reversing a long-standing historical pattern. I was therefore very glad to see this morning a truly fascinating paper by Milagros Onofri Ins Berniell (@InesBerniell) Raquel Fernndez (@raquel1fernan) and Azul Menduia on Latin Americas recent fertility decline at @nberpubs: Understanding Latin Americas Fertility Decline: Age Education and Cohort Dynamics I have not yet had time to fully digest all its findings but I will be reading it repeatedly over the next few weeks. From a first"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:48Z 46.1K followers, 134.6K engagements
"Moshe Hazan(@MosheHazan6) who has done important work on the economics of fertility reminds me that he has documented the changing slope between fertility and education in advanced economies in several papers. One figure I found particularly clear to share on X is from his paper: Highly educated women are no longer childless: The role of marketization with David Weiss (a Penn alumnus) and Hosny Zoabi (@Zoabi_Hosny). The authors compare the rate of currently childless among women of 40-45 years of age (i.e. close to the end of their fertile age) with postgraduate degrees (masters doctorates"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:30Z 46.1K followers, 30K engagements
"De verdad la gente no sabe leer. Escribo en el post que la TIR efectiva del sistema en Espaa (considerando la legislacin actual de prestaciones e ingresos) es del 57% mientras que la TIR sostenible es del 21%. La frmula NO es para comparar con un sistema de capitalizacin es para calcular la sostenibilidad del sistema"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:49Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"A guide for students of economics: Ten statements that demonstrate that someone does not understand modern economics or what an equilibrium is and that you can safely ignore everything else they say. [--]. Equilibrium means the economy is stable or at rest. Many assume that an equilibrium is a peaceful state with no forces at play. Instead an equilibrium is just an arrangement of actions and expectations over time that are mutually consistent. It can be locally unstable explosive or fragile. Nothing in the definition of equilibrium implies stability. [--]. Equilibrium implies optimality or social"
X Link 2025-11-28T17:53Z 46.2K followers, 629.1K engagements
"@CaceroloHD @PEDR0VALDIVIA S pensar que eliminar [------] millones de duplicidades es como creer en los Reyes Magos cuando se tiene ms de [--] aos: https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022312585060614388 I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many hate economists because they play in policy discussions the same role as the kid who told you in second grade that Santa Claus does not exist (well since this was in Spain the Reyes Magos). You know it is https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022312585060614388 I learned from a great Spanish economist many years ago that so many"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:56Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@MoigreM Pero entonces yo no llamara a ese sistema privado una estafa piramidal"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:55Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Let me explain why I believe modern economics is such a powerful tool for understanding the world. Ill do this by discussing a great paper by Simone Cerreia-Vioglio @UncertainLars Fabio Maccheroni and Massimo Marinacci Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification published in the Review of Economic Studies a few months ago. Imagine I want to drive from UC San Diego to UCLA but Ive never driven that route before. I need to build a model of the world to guide me which we usually call a map. Maps are simplified representations of reality. They cant include every detail if theyre to be useful."
X Link 2025-10-30T17:49Z 46.2K followers, 346.6K engagements
"Yesterday I posted on the life expectancy of great economists: But this raises an obvious question: Is economics good for your health Yes (but in a subtle way). For my previous post I had compiled a (subjective) list of the top [--] economists of all time. So I fed it to ChatGPT and asked it to compile similar lists of [--] sociologists mathematicians physicists and chemists. I pick sociology as a comparison within the social sciences and math physics and chemistry as examples from the hard sciences. To keep the comparison fair I asked that all researchers be born after [----] the year Adam Smith"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:59Z 46.2K followers, 20K engagements
"Contrariamente a lo que se afirma insensatamente con frecuencia un sistema pblico de pensiones contributivas de reparto no es una estafa piramidal. Todo sistema de reparto se caracteriza por una tasa interna de retorno (TIR) que es la tasa de descuento que iguala en valor presente las cotizaciones de los trabajadores con las prestaciones que reciben (todas las cifras de este post estn en trminos reales es decir ya descontada la inflacin). Esta TIR puede ser la media del sistema (para todos los trabajadores) o individual (en la que se emplea el valor actuarial esperado que considera las"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 56.3K engagements
"@polis_data Ese no es mi punto (mi posicin sobre la inmigracin es de sobra conocida). El punto es que todo sistema intertemporal (el que sea) necesita nuevas generaciones. Llamar a un sistema intertemporal "Ponzi" solo por ser intertemporal es absurdo"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:11Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Aqu tiene: si meti $1 en el S&P [---] en [----] en [----] tena [--] cntimos (en trminos reales). El americano que se jubil con [--] aos en [----] sufri un sequencing risk de primera magnitud. Es lo que tiene ser catedrtico de economa en una universidad de verdad: que sabemos los datos. 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:01Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I have been posting repeatedly on X about the extraordinarily fast collapse of births across the planet: in rich and poor countries in fast-growing and slow-growing economies in religious and secular societies under right-wing and left-wing governments with high taxes and with low taxes. The pattern is universal. I knew this trend would continue. Still the figures released this morning left me genuinely speechless. Chinas government announced on Monday (see screenshot below) that births in [----] fell to [----] million a staggering [----] million fewer than in [----] and that the total fertility rate"
X Link 2026-01-19T14:48Z 46.2K followers, 1.8M engagements
"@Someone1599376 Do you find this projection for South Korea of WPP [----] plausible"
X Link 2026-01-23T17:17Z 46.2K followers, 549.6K engagements
"Over the weekend I wrapped up a new version of my paper The Neoclassical Growth of China with Lee Ohanian and Wen Yao: The main change from previous versions is that we thoroughly redid the analysis using PWT [----]. This was important because it allowed us to extend the sample to [----]. The additional years are quite informative although to our pleasant surprise in full agreement with what the model in the previous version of the paper had predicted using data up to [----]. I include my favorite figure from the paper in this post which compares China with other East Asian economies at similar"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:23Z 46.2K followers, 79.1K engagements
"This figure comes from a recent paper by Cheng et al. that correlates several statistical measures of income social outcomes and related variables with total fertility rates (TFR). The figure shows the relationship between the estimated overall cumulative effects of the mean female expected years of schooling over [--] years on TFR across regions. Right off the bat lets recall that this is a relation not a causality statement. It does not say that education causes higher or lower TFR; it only states that education and TFR move together. For example the causality arrow could move in the opposite"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:15Z 46.2K followers, 42.2K engagements
"The Sveriges Riksbank established the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in [----] to celebrate its 300th anniversary. As a result many great economists had died before that date and the stock of potential laureates was so large that many fantastic economists never received it. On Tuesday I visited @MITEcon. Amid many pleasures including great conversations I had the chance to take a pic from a wall where the department has displayed photographs of its laureates over the years a most impressive collection of names. This morning on the plane back from Boston for pure amusement"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:08Z 46.2K followers, 18.6K engagements
"@anup_malani Couldn't agree more. If I had one dollar for every time I had tried to explain what Coase was trying to do I would finally have enough money for that house in Santa Barbara I want 😆"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:05Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@K1915580392 @piromorfit23379 No. Y si usted sabe cmo inmunizarlos enveme su CV que el lunes le hacemos una oferta de ctedra de asset pricing en Wharton"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:40Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"S pero si le pilla a uno justo al jubilarse te destruye la senda de ingresos por diez aos y cuando la bolsa empieza a recuperarse ya puede ser demasiado tarde. Y no es el nico caso: ha habido tres dcadas ms en el ltimo siglo. No es algo raro. El punto es que todo sistema sensato de pensiones debe contar con un pilar de reparto y otro de capitalizacin. Mire: Es el blog de mi amigo Karsten el tipo ms listo de mi promocin. Este es un buen economista no un vendedor de humo. https://earlyretirementnow.com/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:55Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Solo me voy a centrar en el ltimo punto. Aunque es cierto que a largo plazo el rendimiento de inversiones crecimiento del PIB no lo es en el plazo de jubilacin de una persona (unos 20-30 aos). Si uno se jubila en [----] en Espaa te tragas una cada de la bolsa en valor real del 80% (le pas a mi abuelo) y te quedas en el sitio. Es increblemente difcil crear carteras de inversin que no estn sujetas a este "sequencing risk". Uno de mis mejores amigos se dedic a esto toda su vida y tiene un gran blog al respecto: y mi queridsima mujer se dedica a analizar "sequencing risk". Los dos a parte de tener"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:40Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Vamos a ver: la TIR efectiva la determina la legislacin (y en menor medida la esperanza de vida). Mientras no cambien la legislacin la TIR efectiva seguir siendo 57%. Por eso no es sostenible y probablemente se cambie la legislacin (como se viene haciendo por otra parte desde 1985). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022715206242099671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022715206242099671"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:51Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Uno tiene un problema de sequencing risk brutal si lo metes en S&P500. Incluso con un target-date glide path te tragas una cantidad de riesgo brutal. Un sistema sensato tiene que tener un pilar de reparto u un pilar de capitalizacin. No darse cuenta del sequencing risk es no haber pensado en el tema por ms de [--] minutos. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022723523517817100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022723523517817100"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:24Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@bcnopenmind @josasis Gracias Muy buena ilustracin. 😊"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:50Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Esto escrib sobre el nefasto Torres y el incluso peor Vicenc Navarro que hoy sabemos cmo termin. Por cierto un economista espaol superfamoso llam a FEDEA al da siguiente a protestar que hubiese escrito eso sobre Navarro que era un luchador antifranquista y que no se mereca ese tratamiento. Me sent como una patada en al espinilla. Yo era ms junior entonces y me tuve que aguantar. Pero hoy monto el pollo. https://nadaesgratis.es/fernandez-villaverde/agricultores-y-pensiones https://nadaesgratis.es/fernandez-villaverde/agricultores-y-pensiones"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:52Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@DavidGA_24 @GustavoBolsa @K1915580392 @piromorfit23379 Fue l quien seleccion una ventana de [--] aos como ventana en la que no se poda perder. No yo"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:58Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@Miguel_Figueres @GustavoBolsa Porque es un sistema de mutualizacin de riesgos. Es igual que uno no puede salir del sistema pblico de sanidad porque "a m no me va a dar cncer""
X Link 2026-02-14T20:59Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Es un sistema de mutualizacin de riesgos en el que quieres hacer pooling. De verdad no es tan difcil de entender (bueno en realidad s para algunos). Pero ya me he dado cuenta que hay mucho que cumple aquello de que quod natura non dat Salmantica non praestat. 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022778260141072730 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022778260141072730"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:01Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Very glad to see that Hanno Lustig (@HannoLustig) and Romain Wacziarg (@RWacziarg) have started a Substack: Both are outstanding economists with fundamental contributions to macroeconomics and political economy (among other areas). Almost as important Hanno works on issues like bonds and safe assets and Romain on topics such as fertility and culture all of which are close and dear to my heart. For instance Hanno wrote yesterday about the fiscal backing that a safe asset requires which is central to what I posted last week on international currency dominance. It is genuinely commendable that"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:59Z 46.2K followers, 31.1K engagements
"I have been working on how to explain the major changes in life cycles that increased life expectancy entails. A simple exercise I find useful is to list the top [--] economists of all time (my subjective list) and plot their ages at death; see the figure. The difference between David Ricardo (51 years old at death) and Ronald Coase (102) is striking. To put a number on this I regress age at death on year of birth. The R is surprisingly high (0.521) for such a crude regression. The slope implies approximately one additional year of life for every six years by which an economist is born later."
X Link 2026-02-08T16:33Z 46.2K followers, 56.7K engagements
"This is really cool Inspired by a convo w/ @BasilHalperin about @JesusFerna7026's great "Wealth of Working Nations" paper "I" (read: Claude) made a web-app for visualizing their proposed metric for comparing cross-country growth (GDP/15-64 pop) Here are figs for their sample (1991-2019) and 91-24 https://t.co/AyCeYN0XiW Inspired by a convo w/ @BasilHalperin about @JesusFerna7026's great "Wealth of Working Nations" paper "I" (read: Claude) made a web-app for visualizing their proposed metric for comparing cross-country growth (GDP/15-64 pop) Here are figs for their sample (1991-2019) and 91-24"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:24Z 46.2K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Ese argumento es totalmente vaco. El artculo [--] de la CE dice: "Los poderes pblicos garantizarn mediante pensiones adecuadas y peridicamente actualizadas la suficiencia econmica a los ciudadanos durante la tercera edad." Es el ejemplo perfecto de lo que en derecho se llama un principio jurdico indeterminado: no hay criterio objetivo que indique qu es "adecuado" o "suficiencia econmica". Como la jurisprudencia del TC ha sealado mil veces esto quiere decir que el artculo [--] de la CE es nicamente un criterio rector de la poltica econmica es decir algo que el legislador debe considerar como una"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:44Z 46.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@DrCarlosToscano No es incorrecto. https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022708812268892236 Veo que hay muchos lectores muy torpes que aprobaron las matemticas de bachillerato de chiripa. As que un ejemplo sencillo con los parmetros de Japn: n = [----] (una cada de la poblacin de un 1% anual) g = [----] (un crecimiento de la productividad de un 2% anual) TIR https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2022708812268892236 Veo que hay muchos lectores muy torpes que aprobaron las matemticas de bachillerato de chiripa. As que un ejemplo sencillo con los parmetros de Japn: n = [----] (una cada de la poblacin de"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:57Z 46.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Gordsimo. Me preocupa adems que muchos hablan de inversin y finanzas y todo lo que dicen es infantil. No duraran ni cinco minutos en FNCE9110 - Financial Economics en Wharton y mucho menos en Wall Street. Pero me imagino que es el motivo por el que AQR hace dinero: con idiotas como estos como counterparty es fcil generar excess returns"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:31Z 46.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Frente a la locura total y absoluta que es el movimiento del decrecimiento (y todos sus adlteres en la universidad) Espaa (y Catalua) tienen que apostar decididamente por la era de la abundancia y el crecimiento econmico. Esto es lo que escrib con @lugaricano y Tano Santos hace unos meses en @elconfidencial: Si el fracaso de la revolucin industrial en Espaa marc el declive relativo del pas durante el siglo XIX y defini nuestro turbulento siglo XX hoy nos enfrentamos a un riesgo an mayor: quedar al margen de la revolucin de la inteligencia artificial. Las consecuencias de este fracaso seran"
X Link 2025-08-05T14:00Z 46.2K followers, 37.3K engagements
"Let me talk today about 🧽 sponge cities. When I discuss fertility decline I often get the following comment: As the population falls housing prices will also fall which will help with fertility and the system will self-correct. Perhaps not. As the population falls we are observing a phenomenon called sponge cities (see the map from Japan: do you know which city is the green spot). There are even more incentives for the population to concentrate in large cities (e.g. Tokyo or Seoul) for three reasons: [--] Jobs. As the population shrinks in many regions jobs disappear with it. Yes you can"
X Link 2025-08-06T15:23Z 46.2K followers, 277.7K engagements
"I am often asked: Where does deep learning make a real difference in our computational capabilities in economics My answer In solving integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. In this class of models we want to understand the feedback loop between macro and climate. This is an extremely complicated computational problem because: [--] It is non-stationary. [--] It is highly non-linear. [--] It is highly dimensional. Because of these three reasons many IAMs have oversimplified the problem or ignored important economic mechanisms. In a recent paper published a few days ago Climate Change"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:21Z 46.2K followers, 37.9K engagements
"Cronologa bsica para las pensiones en Espaa 🧵 [--] La edad media de jubilacin es de [---] aos. [--] As el jubilado medio que se retira este [--] de agosto naci el [--] de junio de [----]. [--] No empez a trabajar (legalmente) y cotizar hasta el [--] de julio de [----] ya que la edad mnima de trabajar era en aquel entonces de [--] aos. Algunas personas pudieron empezar antes en la economa sumergida o en la agricultura pero fueron pocos y no cotizaron hasta los [--] aos. En [----] Espaa ya no era una nacin eminentemente agrcola y Adolfo Surez era presidente del Gobierno desde el [--] de julio. [--] De los nacidos en 1960"
X Link 2025-08-17T09:04Z 46.2K followers, 164.4K engagements
"@Donnymack666 No son los polticos. Son los votantes: el 90% de los votantes espaoles son unos irresponsables. Los polticos son irresponsables porque es lo que demandan los espaoles"
X Link 2025-08-18T05:50Z 46.2K followers, 28.9K engagements
"@deandres_jm @destroyAgile La inmigracin legal de inmigrantes poco cualificados de hecho es peor para el sistema de seguridad social. La ilegal no genera derechos la legal s. Yo estoy en contra de ambas: legal e ilegal"
X Link 2025-08-18T08:09Z 46.2K followers, 91.2K engagements
"The EUs problems are systemic and deep. For the first time in its history the EU recorded fewer births in [----] than the US Despite having an extra [---] million inhabitants https://t.co/xQ5NZYfvLp For the first time in its history the EU recorded fewer births in [----] than the US Despite having an extra [---] million inhabitants https://t.co/xQ5NZYfvLp"
X Link 2025-08-25T10:50Z 46.2K followers, 41.6K engagements
"No es cuestin de si alguien es nativo o inmigrante. Vivimos en un Estado del bienestar basado en la redistribucin: el 70% de los individuos en la parte baja de la distribucin recibe transferencias netas de las AAPP el grupo entre el 71% y el 90% queda ms o menos en cero (segn factores individuales como la longevidad o la salud) y solo el 10% superior son contribuyentes netos. El 99% de los inmigrantes que llegan a Espaa de fuera de la Unin Europea se sitan en el 90% inferior de renta: prcticamente todos salvo algunos profesionales de Chile o Argentina y los futbolistas. En su da cuando trabaj"
X Link 2025-08-26T10:47Z 46.2K followers, 162.8K engagements
"I just finished organizing the schedule for my Fall [----] course on Global Economic History. With only [--] lectures of [--] minutes (plus two midterms) one must make painful choices about what to leave out. Honestly this should be a two-semester course. On the bright side theres again a long waitlist of students (as the classroom is filled to capacity) so maybe someday Ill convince the powers that be to let me have two semesters. What didnt make the cut this year is Africa. A real pity. I find Africas economic history fascinating for many reasons and it is essential to any course labeled as"
X Link 2025-08-27T08:06Z 46.2K followers, 43.3K engagements
"No sigue sin entenderlo. Si cerramos a la inmigracin y se vuelven 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados probablemente el PIB per cpita caera. Estara EUFORICO que cayese el PIB per cpita. Pero el bienestar de todas las generaciones mayores y jvenes subira. Ahora los mayores estn teniendo cuidadores inmigrantes que s incrementan su bienestar pero estn destruyendo el bienestar de los jvenes. Nos estamos dando un lujo el cuidado actual de los mayores que esta ANIQUILANDO el futuro de Espaa en 2050"
X Link 2025-08-27T12:44Z 46.2K followers, 20.4K engagements
"For economists interested in growth this falls most anticipated release was Breakneck: Chinas Quest to Engineer the Future by Dan Wang (@danwwang). The buzz had been building for months and I was counting the days like kids once did for the next Harry Potter book. When my copy arrived on my Kindle on August [--] I couldn't resist and started reading it right away. By sheer coincidence I was in Yangzhou at the time a city sitting on the Grand Canal arguably the greatest engineering project in Chinas history and the location of the China Grand Canal Museum. Since Wang insists China is a nation of"
X Link 2025-08-29T12:40Z 46.2K followers, 55.9K engagements
"Cada vez que escribo sobre pensiones siempre aparece un listo con la misma cantinela: el problema no es que las pensiones sean altas es que los salarios en Espaa son bajos. Este argumento cumple con las tres caractersticas que tanto gustan al espaol medio: [--] Te permite subirte a la atalaya de la superioridad moral. Quin puede estar en contra de salarios ms altos Es como estar en contra de la paz las florecitas del campo o la tortilla de patatas. [--] Es sencillo y no exige esfuerzo mental no sea que pensar provoque un tumor cerebral. [--] Es incorrecto. El problema fundamental del sistema de"
X Link 2025-09-01T01:57Z 46.2K followers, 273.6K engagements
"September [--] always the hardest day to live away from where ones heart lies"
X Link 2025-09-08T01:32Z 46.2K followers, 56.4K engagements
"If you're an economist and haven't heard about the double descent phenomenon you might be overlooking one of the most interesting developments in computer science and statistics today. Personally I haven't come across anything as fascinating since I first learned about Markov chain Monte Carlo in the fall of [----]. Let me walk you through the idea with an example and a figure from my recent survey Deep Learning for Solving Economic Models (check my post from yesterday): Step [--]. Draw [--] random points from the function Y = 2(1 - e-x + sin(x)) and plot them in red (panel [--] top left in the figure"
X Link 2025-09-10T12:02Z 46.2K followers, 163.7K engagements
"In my post yesterday I described the double descent phenomenon: in many situations massively over-parametrized models outperform simpler models out of sample. As I emphasized this is one of the most surprising and intriguing developments in computer science and statistics in recent decades and it has important implications for economics. The double descent phenomenon raises many questions most still unanswered or only partially answered despite intense work by top researchers. Today I will sketch one key element of the emerging picture: the inductive bias of deep learning. This requires some"
X Link 2025-09-11T13:29Z 46.2K followers, 61.5K engagements
"Hoy ha salido publicada en @elmundoes una entrevista que @dprietoelmundo me hizo hace unas semanas: Hablo de muchas cosas desde inmigracin hasta vivienda. Pero personalmente la parte que me parece ms importante es la que incluyo en el pantallazo. Espaa necesita un cambio radical de direccin. El sistema actual est sacrificando a todos los menores de [--] aos en el altar del estatus quo. Y lo peor Que encima los que disfrutan de este estatus quo ni se dan cuenta de ello y que la alternativa que parece venir no va a ser tal. El [--] de diciembre de [----] hace casi [--] aos publiqu La incierta deriva de"
X Link 2025-09-12T17:59Z 46.2K followers, 179.2K engagements
"El declogo del buen negacionista de pensiones ☕📜 Esto de las pensiones ya le toca a usted las narices. Cada vez que se sienta en su terraza favorita en Lagasca a tomarse un caf y pastitas abre el peridico y zas la columna de un niato hablando del problema de las pensiones en Espaa. Cmo va a disfrutar as de su bien merecida jubilacin No se preocupe. En un ejercicio de servicio pblico aqu tiene un declogo que puede emplear en cualquier situacin. Lalo un par de veces memorcelo y no volvern a amargarle el caf de media maana: [--] Lo ms importante: esto es un bulo. No hay problema alguno de"
X Link 2025-09-13T13:19Z 46.2K followers, 475.9K engagements
"Hoy estoy de enhorabuena @LaVanguardia ha decidido regalarme un homenaje inesperado: una pgina entera (s una pgina entera) dedicada a atizarle a mi libro La factura del cupo cataln con @frdelatorre. Y lo firma nada menos que Manel Prez el adjunto al director: Hace falta mejor prueba de que el libro ha tocado hueso La tctica inicial del nacionalismo cataln fue ignorar el libro confiando en que pasara desapercibido. Mala suerte: el libro como nos recuerdan muchos lectores se lee con facilidad se entiende y ha vendido francamente bien. As que alguien tena que hacer el trabajo sucio y al pobre"
X Link 2025-09-14T19:34Z 46.2K followers, 169.1K engagements
"📢 Anuncio especial sobre mi libro La factura del cupo cataln (con @frdelatorre) Con este post me comprometo a donar ntegramente los derechos de autor (regalas) que me correspondan del libro a la Asociacin Espaola Contra el Cncer: 👉 Desde el primer cntimo hasta el ltimo. No s cunto dinero ser pues la editorial todava no ha liquidado nada pero eso es irrelevante. @frdelatorre y yo no escribimos este libro por dinero. Al contrario: nos ha costado tiempo que podramos haber dedicado a otras actividades mucho mejor remuneradas adems de algn que otro enfado con personas influyentes. Pero como"
X Link 2025-09-14T22:20Z 46.2K followers, 56.1K engagements
"Time to reorganize universities from scratch I have been thinking a lot about what it means to be a university in [----] once AI has arrived. My approach to learning new topics has undergone a significant change. Instead of relying only on textbooks or papers I now integrate LLMs into my self-education. The result My learning productivity has skyrocketed. Even more striking: I have reduced by 90% my dependence on colleagues and friends when exploring a new subject. Gone are the days of sending an email to a friend at University X asking Whats a good way to start learning about Y But this raises"
X Link 2025-09-20T13:21Z 46.2K followers, 78.3K engagements
"📊 El tema del da es la encuesta de La Vanguardia y el subidn que otorga a Aliana Catalana (AC) y en menor medida a Vox. Entre ambos suman [--] escaos solo uno menos que el PSC. Diez lecciones que extraigo de la encuesta: [--] AC ya est por encima de los [--] escaos que le da la encuesta. Lo ms probable es que haya adelantado tanto a ERC como a Junts y se haya convertido en el primer partido nacionalista cataln en nmero de escaos. Mi estimacin puntual para unas elecciones hoy en Catalua sera: AC [--] ERC [--] Junts [--]. [--] Los encuestadores infravaloran a AC a propsito. Es un caso clsico de coste"
X Link 2025-09-21T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 342.7K engagements
"@fjramosr98 Usted interprete lo que quiera. Pero un partido liderado por Espinosa de los Monteros ser un fracaso electoral. Fuera de las seoras que van a comprar croquetas de jamn al Mallorca de Serrano no le va a votar nadie"
X Link 2025-09-21T15:16Z 46.2K followers, 130.9K engagements
"El [--] de septiembre escriba que el PP poda encontrarse pronto con una probabilidad razonable con que su argumento de que tena que gobernar la lista ms votada le estallase en la cara y que todos los que dicen el PP gan las elecciones generales de [----] y por tanto debera gobernar (no no las gan fue solo la lista ms votada) tendran que tragarse sus palabras. Hoy circula una encuesta que apunta a este escenario: el ascenso de Vox y la fortaleza del PSOE comindose a Sumar colocaran al PSOE como la fuerza ms votada aunque la derecha nacional tuviese una clara mayora absoluta. S s lo que me van a"
X Link 2025-10-01T16:40Z 46.2K followers, 63.7K engagements
"Este hilo de Zigor Aldama que enlazo merece leerse entero con mucha atencin. Dira que mis impresiones de China basadas tanto en mi investigacin acadmica como en mis visitas (la ltima hace unas semanas) coinciden con las de @zigoraldama en un 85%. Solo matizara la primera frase: Aceptemos que Occidente est en vas de subdesarrollo. No no es Occidente en general es Europa Occidental. Una diferencia pequea en apariencia pero crucial. Este verano he estado en Espaa y en Jiangsu. El coche medio en las calles de Oviedo o Salamanca es peor (y ms antiguo) que el coche medio en Yangzhou o Nanjing. Lo"
X Link 2025-10-03T16:19Z 46.2K followers, 67.5K engagements
"🧠 Las cinco grandes preguntas abiertas a las que nadie tiene una respuesta de la ms sencilla a la ms compleja: [--] Por qu la gravedad es tan dbil frente a las dems fuerzas y la masa del bosn de Higgs tan pequea respecto a la escala de Planck [--] Cul es la naturaleza de la materia oscura que compone la mayor parte del universo [--] Qu es exactamente la energa oscura que acelera su expansin [--] Cmo unificar la mecnica cuntica y la relatividad general en una teora coherente del todo [--] 🤔 Y por qu el PP tras elegir a nulidades absolutas como Rajoy y Casado insiste en lderes tan intiles como Feijo"
X Link 2025-10-04T15:43Z 46.2K followers, 88.8K engagements
"A few days ago I emphasized the importance of the intellectual Turing test. Its an old idea inspired by Turings original test for artificial intelligence. Claim: You only truly understand an intellectual position if you can articulate and defend it so convincingly that a knowledgeable observer cannot tell whether you actually believe it. Example: you pass the test if you can [--] Defend the case for tariffs for [--] minutes (e.g. the infant industry argument increasing returns to scale strategic trade ) and [--] Defend the case against tariffs for [--] minutes (e.g. comparative advantage differences in"
X Link 2025-10-10T14:51Z 46.2K followers, 127.7K engagements
"Ayer en un largo y aburrido viaje de avin me dio por hacer nmeros electorales. ✈ Cada da al PP se le mueren unos [---] votantes y solo le entran unos [---] nuevos de jvenes que cumplen [--] aos. 👉 Prdida neta: unos [---] votantes diarios. Ser interesante ver el panorama electoral espaol en [----]. 🗳"
X Link 2025-10-12T15:34Z 46.2K followers, 140.3K engagements
"I know Im late to congratulate Joel Mokyr here on X but I have a good excuse. When I opened my iPhone this morning and saw the announcement I was so happy that I literally forgot my laptop at home (and I dont have a computer in my office). For the first time in [--] years I arrived on campus without my bag laptop Penn ID or office keys. Fortunately I had a credit card in the car. I had to tailgate an undergrad into the Econ building improvise my lecture with a mix of an impromptu class on Mokyrs contributions and a last-minute download of the slides from the classroom computer and then shuffle"
X Link 2025-10-13T19:57Z 46.2K followers, 121.4K engagements
"Last Thursday I had an interesting dinner with two prominent economists. Soon the conversation turned to Joel Mokyrs work and its relationship with @danwwangs recent book Breakneck: Chinas Quest to Engineer the Future. Mokyr has long argued that Europes Republic of Letters encouraged broad scientific and technological innovation by providing a setting where new ideas could be evaluated and disseminated. For him Europe occupied the ideal midpoint between political fragmentation and cultural unity: enough polycentrism to prevent the suppression of ideas by heavy-handed rulers but enough common"
X Link 2025-10-19T14:25Z 46.2K followers, 152.4K engagements
"Two fresh books just landed on my desk (thank you to the authors for the complimentary copies). Ive got a long flight to Europe next week only room in the bag for one. Which should win the seat-mate contest"
X Link 2025-11-07T15:17Z 46.2K followers, 36.6K engagements
"@tatin17 @MrtnzAlvrz Siendo su padre quien es a Espinosa de los Monteros solo le admitieron en E-2 no en E-3. Creo que ya queda dicho todo sobre su capacidad intelectual y de trabajo"
X Link 2025-11-10T13:19Z 46.2K followers, 420.1K engagements
"During my lectures last week at the ECB and the Bank of Spain on deep learning I realized that many people in economics and econometrics often overlook the fact that what constitutes a good representation of the data (the topic of my previous post) depends entirely on the task at hand. A classic illustration I always use to make this point is Covers Theorem. Let me start with the intuition. Imagine that you have two-dimensional data (see the left panel of the figure below). The data are already normalized. For example one dimension may be age and the other income. The task is to separate"
X Link 2025-11-16T15:14Z 46.2K followers, 70.8K engagements
"Hoy publico junto al increble Jon Gonzlez (@Jongonzlz) la ltima entrega de mi serie Pensiones y racionalidad en El Confidencial: 🔗 El sistema actual es injusto e insostenible. Pero reformarlo es polticamente casi imposible. https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/la-mano-visible/2025-03-22/pensiones-racionalidad-iii_4090468/ https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/la-mano-visible/2025-03-22/pensiones-racionalidad-iii_4090468/"
X Link 2025-03-22T12:56Z 46.2K followers, 41K engagements
"As the world debates new economic architectures a reminder that some like Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) have been spectacularly wrong before about international macroeconomics: Spain will almost certainly be forced to leave the euro and default on its debt or else suffer many years of crippling unemployment rising debt and economic stagnation. Source: As of tonight: Spain is still in the euro. Total employment is up 18.2% (2024.Q4) a historical high vs. when article was written (2011.Q1). Our private sector is a net lender to the world: something that is probably a first in our economic"
X Link 2025-04-27T21:30Z 46.2K followers, 195.7K engagements
"La tabla ms demoledora de nuestro libro La factura del cupo cataln con @frdelatorre. Usamos los ltimos datos consolidados disponibles (2022) pero los resultados de aos anteriores y con toda probabilidad los de los aos siguientes muestran el mismo patrn. Alguien me puede explicar por qu es justo que Andaluca reciba [-----] euros por habitante para financiarse pero el Pas Vasco tenga 6.614"
X Link 2025-05-18T19:24Z 46.2K followers, 166.6K engagements
"Hoy @cultrun publica una columna muy interesante: el salario real medio no solo no sube en Espaa sino que cae. Hay un punto que @cultrun menciona de pasada pero que merece destacarse. En Espaa tampoco hay ricos. No es que el salario real medio sea bajo porque los ricos se lo llevan todo. Es que sencillamente en Espaa no hay dinero. Segn los datos de la Agencia Tributaria en [----] solo haba [---] personas en toda Espaa con patrimonios iguales o superiores a [--] millones de euros: Incluso dejando de lado el posible ocultamiento de patrimonio (que no es tan fcil como muchos suponen cuando llegas a"
X Link 2025-05-29T11:34Z 46.2K followers, 582.6K engagements
"Esa respuesta no tiene ni pies ni cabeza. No se trata de si uno quiere tener una casa grande sino de si vive en una sociedad que te la permite alcanzar. Yo obviamente no he buscado maximizar mi ingreso: soy profesor universitario y gano muchsimo menos que muchos compaeros de doctorado que se dedicaron a hacer dinero. Por qu Porque pocas cosas me han dado ms satisfaccin que poder hablar de macroeconoma con mis hroes intelectuales como Ed Prescott (q.e.p.d.) o Tom Sargent. Tener una casa ms modesta no es algo que me haya impuesto la vida. Es una eleccin ma. Mi argumento es mucho ms simple:"
X Link 2025-05-29T20:34Z 46.2K followers, 42.7K engagements
"As several people requested I am posting the video of Lecture [--] Economic Thought from Aristotle to Scholasticism: All future videos will be posted here: Thanks https://sites.google.com/view/foundations-economic-thought/topicsauthuser=0 https://youtu.be/AcRGlVCJP_gsi=7Ev5J17yD1lK08DO https://sites.google.com/view/foundations-economic-thought/topicsauthuser=0 https://youtu.be/AcRGlVCJP_gsi=7Ev5J17yD1lK08DO"
X Link 2025-06-20T16:19Z 46.2K followers, 47.7K engagements
"Today I would like to discuss the evolution of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Turkey. Why Because Turkey is one of the most fascinating demographic experiences I know (and the data are pretty good). In some aspects Turkey fits the template of the fertility phenomena I focus on; in others its quite unique. I have a lot to say so Ill split this into two partsone today one tomorrow. Lets start with the total fertility rate. Data come from the Turkish Statistical Institute the official statistical agency: 🔗 In [----] Turkeys TFR was [----] about [----] children below the replacement rate. For"
X Link 2025-06-23T11:06Z 46.2K followers, 64.5K engagements
"Hoy se publica en @elconfidencial mi artculo (en abierto) sobre las elecciones generales de [----] (s [----] no [----] ni 2027): Mi tesis es que el prximo gobierno del PP ser un fracaso tanto por factores estructurales como coyunturales y que ese fracaso marcar el cierre de un ciclo poltico que Espaa ha ido agotando desde [----]. Escrib el artculo el martes por la maana y lo envi a publicar ese mismo da. Inclu este prrafo: La segunda razn coyuntural sern los escndalos de corrupcin que salpicarn al PP durante la legislatura. Si algo hemos aprendido del caso Cerdn es que la corrupcin est incrustada en"
X Link 2025-07-05T10:31Z 46.2K followers, 122.2K engagements
"El cupo para todos es para la hacienda pblica lo que la teora del flogisto a la qumica moderna: una idea tan ridculamente estpida que casi no merece ni el esfuerzo de refutarla. Pero como estamos en Espaa no queda ms remedio. Empecemos por lo bsico: qu es un cupo Porque si algo he aprendido en Espaa durante los dos ltimos meses de hablar de la financiacin autonmica es que cada uno entiende los trminos como le da la gana. En comentarios a mis posts he ledo interpretaciones del cupo que no se sostienen ni cinco segundos. As que vayamos a la fuente: la definicin del Gobierno vasco para que nadie"
X Link 2025-07-15T23:43Z 46.2K followers, 206.3K engagements
"Lo que ms me asombra del llamado principio de ordinalidad es la cantidad de personas que se autodefinen como de izquierdas y lo defienden simplemente porque se aplica a Catalua lo que lo convierte ipso facto en algo progresista. Si la misma idea se utilizara para justificar que Madrid o determinados grupos de renta alta pagaran menos impuestos o recibieran ms transferencias esos mismos comentaristas lo denunciaran como una aberracin neoliberal y clasista de manual . 📌 Un ejemplo sencillo: el nuevo impuesto bancario aprobado hace unos meses se reparte entre comunidades segn el PIB bajo el"
X Link 2025-07-22T15:59Z 46.2K followers, 37.1K engagements
"De nuevo la misma cantinela de siempre esta vez en boca de Salvador Illa sobre la supuesta acumulacin insolidaria de recursos en la Comunidad de Madrid. Pero repasemos cmo funciona realmente el sistema de financiacin (lo he explicado en detalle en muchos otros posts): 📌 IVA y Especiales: Se reparten segn consumo no donde se liquidan. Si llenas el depsito en Vigo en un gasolinera de Repsol el [--] % del IVA autonmico va a la Xunta aunque Repsol liquide en Madrid (el otro 50% del IVA es estatal no de la Comunidad de Madrid). 📌 Sociedades: [---] % estatal. No entra en la financiacin autonmica. 📌"
X Link 2025-08-03T12:42Z 46.2K followers, 57K engagements
"El surrealismo kafkiano de la discusin de poltica econmica espaola: Salvador Illa acusa a la Comunidad de Madrid que recibe del sistema de financiacin autonmica [-----] por habitante (295 menos que la media del sistema comn) de acumulacin insolidaria para justificar que Catalua que recibe [-----] por habitante (422 ms que la media) reciba an ms. En la lgica del PSC la Comunidad de Madrid que est por debajo de la media de financiacin es culpable; mientras que Catalua que est por encima es vctima. Por cierto todo esto lo explicamos en detalle @frdelatorre en nuestro libro La factura del cupo cataln"
X Link 2025-08-03T13:53Z 46.2K followers, 116.7K engagements
"Atribuir el reciente dinamismo econmico de Madrid en relacin a Catalua a su condicin de capital plantea varios problemas: 1) Catalua fue ms dinmica que Madrid durante el franquismo cuando Espaa era un pas mucho ms centralizado que hoy. Esa centralizacin no impidi que Catalua superara a otras regiones en crecimiento econmico. 2) Durante las primeras dcadas de democracia (19782000) Catalua mantuvo un dinamismo comparable al de Madrid. 3) El retroceso relativo de Catalua empieza en los aos [----] y se acelera a partir de [----]. Madrid era tan capital en [----] como lo era en [----] o lo es hoy. O lo"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:53Z 46.2K followers, 176.9K engagements
"I first encountered Peter Temin as a college freshman. I was lazily browsing the economics section of my college bookstore when I came across a volume titled New Economic History: Selected Readings which he edited. The title caught my interest so I purchased it. I believe I read the entire book within a few days. The chapters by Fogel Conrad and Meyer and Temin himself were captivating. As a freshman Im fairly sure I didnt grasp most of the arguments but the book had a significant influence on how I believed modern economic history could be studied. That perspective has mostly stayed with me"
X Link 2025-08-07T15:32Z 46.2K followers, 56.6K engagements
"It is well understood that different fertility rates lead to changes in demographic structures within a country. These differences may be regional (e.g. region A having higher fertility than region B) ethnic religious cultural or political. What is less appreciated is that in environments with low fertility those changes can be particularly fast. And these changes are followed by political transformations. Imagine that you have a country with groups A and B each with 50% of the population: [--] When fertility is high the total fertility rate (TFR) of group A is [--] and the TFR of group B is 3."
X Link 2025-08-12T14:41Z 46.2K followers, 83.1K engagements
"Cul es el peor contraargumento posible contra el problema presupuestario que tenemos en Espaa ahora mismo con las pensiones pblicas Que este problema se soluciona de manera indolora si reducimos gastos innecesarios o incrementamos ingresos. Este contraargumento viene en dos versiones ambas igual de falaces. 🔹 Versin izquierda: Del lado del gasto: si reducimos el gasto en defensa Corona Iglesia o el rescate bancario hay dinero de sobra. Del lado de los ingresos: si reducimos el fraude fiscal o conseguimos que los ricos/la banca paguen lo que tienen que pagar hay dinero de sobra. 🔹 Versin"
X Link 2025-08-18T04:13Z 46.2K followers, 323.6K engagements
"Un factor que se olvida a menudo en Espaa es que nuestro sistema moderno de Seguridad Social establecido con la Ley 193/1963 sobre Bases de la Seguridad Social y desarrollado por el Decreto 907/1966 empleaba las cotizaciones sociales de trabajadores y empresas no solo para pagar las pensiones contributivas sino tambin para cubrir sanidad prestaciones familiares y otras prestaciones sociales (pantallazo de la ley copiado). Fue solo con la Ley 24/1997 de Consolidacin y Racionalizacin del Sistema de la Seguridad Social y sobre todo con la Ley 66/1997 de Medidas Fiscales Administrativas y del"
X Link 2025-08-23T05:57Z 46.2K followers, 35.8K engagements
"Ese argumento lo he escuchado mil veces y mil veces me ha parecido que no solo no tiene sentido alguno sino que atenta contra la lgica econmica ms bsica: los salarios son endgenos. Si hay pocos espaoles que quieren trabajar en los supermercados pasarn dos cosas. Primero los supermercados organizarn sus servicios de manera menos intensiva en trabajadores en parte con automatizacin y en parte vendiendo comida de una manera diferente (por ejemplo en vez de abrir de [--] a [--] abrirn solo de [--] a 5). Segundo los salarios relativos de los trabajadores en los supermercados subirn lo que atraer ms"
X Link 2025-08-27T00:08Z 46.2K followers, 131.3K engagements
"Usted no me est entendiendo en absoluto. Si yo quisiera maximizar el PIB de Espaa estara a favor de traer ms inmigrantes. Ese el argumento (incorrecto) de preocuparse de que cierren empresas por no tener mano de obra. Es precisamente porque no quiero maximizar el PIB sino el bienestar de los espaoles que quiero cerrar las fronteras espaolas a la inmigracin no cualificada a cal y canto. De hecho estara encantado no EUFRICO de que el PIB cayese un 5% si abandonan Espaa unos 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados. Tendramos un 5% menos de PIB pero ms bienestar. Espero que quede claro"
X Link 2025-08-27T12:37Z 46.2K followers, 128K engagements
"📌 Recordatorio peridico: la idea del cupo para todos es una estupidez. Ningn pas avanzado del mundo lo tiene porque ningn pas puede funcionar as. ❌ Cupo para todos NO es el sistema de EE. UU. NO es el de Suiza NO es el de Alemania NO es el de Canad. ❌ Y no esos sistemas no son equivalentes a un cupo para todos ni se le parecen remotamente. 👉 Quien diga lo contrario o miente o es ignorante (o ambas cosas). Lo que han acordado ERC y PSC tampoco se parece en nada absolutamente nada a los sistemas de EE. UU. Suiza Alemania o Canad. Estar en contra de los cupos no es estar en contra del"
X Link 2025-09-03T19:49Z 46.2K followers, 35.3K engagements
"I have just posted my survey paper Deep Learning for Solving Economic Models on my webpage: In one or two weeks it will also circulate as a working paper at the NBER and CEPR. Still I wanted to let people know already since I am quite happy with the outcome largely thanks to some fantastic early feedback I got. As I have often argued the ongoing revolution in deep learning is transforming how we solve dynamic equilibrium economic models. At its core solving a model amounts to approximating unknown target functions (such as the value function of agents a decision rule or a best response"
X Link 2025-09-09T12:33Z 46.2K followers, 147.7K engagements
"S s y s. Ese ingeniero esta cobrando una pensin que es un 50% ms alta que el valor actuarial de sus cotizaciones capitalizadas. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le reduzcamos su pensin. Es JUSTO que le"
X Link 2025-09-13T14:20Z 46.2K followers, 119.6K engagements
"Mis lectores habituales saben que insisto mucho en que el dinero pblico que nos gastamos en cosas como ayudas a ONGs fundaciones o medios de comunicacin no es mucho dentro del ocano que representa el presupuesto de las administraciones pblicas y que por tanto cortarlo no es la solucin a nuestros problemas presupuestarios. Algunas veces cuando lanzo este mensaje me queda un sabor agridulce. En primer lugar porque no queda claro que yo sera el primero en cortar el 99% de esas ayudas. Que sea poco dinero no significa que uno tenga que tirarlo a la basura. Pero y esto es mucho ms importante por"
X Link 2025-09-14T11:22Z 46.2K followers, 53.9K engagements
"No las cifras que presenta Prez son todas pero todas desde la primera hasta la ltima una tontera. Confunde churras con merinas y no entiende cmo funciona el sistema de financiacin autonmico. Por ejemplo cuando habla de los funcionarios de la Administracin Central del Estado. El IRPF que pagan esos funcionarios (y el IVA o los especiales que generan) y que corresponderan de los tramos autonmicos se descuenta de la financiacin de la Comunidad de Madrid por medio de los tres fondos autonmicos. As que la Comunidad Madrid no recibe ni un euro de esos impuestos. Es algo trivial de saber pero que"
X Link 2025-09-16T11:26Z 46.2K followers, 20.9K engagements
"This week and next I am covering the years [--------] in my undergraduate economic history course. Each time I return to this material I am struck by how much of the modern world takes shape in that era often more so than in the classic narratives centered on Britains Industrial Revolution or the political upheavals of [--------]. A time traveler from [----] landing in [----] would encounter a world that feels remote to us today from clothing styles to the absence of electricity and telephones in homes. By [----] the same traveler would find a world far more recognizable. Even modern mass politics (and"
X Link 2025-09-24T12:21Z 46.2K followers, 230.5K engagements
"Uno de los grandes misterios de la derecha nacional en Espaa es por qu tantos de sus votantes quieren cambiar el sistema electoral del Congreso. He odo este argumento mil veces (la ltima en una charla en Madrid) enunciado incluso por personas que por su educacin y nivel profesional deberan entenderlo mejor. Y no es solo mi experiencia. Una encuesta reciente: 🔗 documenta que aproximadamente un 40% de votantes del centro a la extrema derecha cree que la reforma electoral es la reforma constitucional ms importante. El misterio: de todos los sistemas normales que se me ocurren el actual es de"
X Link 2025-09-26T17:44Z 46.2K followers, 106.3K engagements
"Me alucina la cantidad de comentaristas que en respuesta a mi entrada de ayer sobre el sistema electoral suean con impedir la presencia de partidos nacionalistas en el Congreso con ocurrencias estrafalarias: que si obligar a que las listas tengan al menos un 5% de votos en todas las circunscripciones (o en la mayora) o directamente prohibirles presentarse a las elecciones generales. Primero: las consecuencias seran txicas. Como bien nos ense Edmund Burke (al que por cierto dudo que ninguno de estos comentaristas haya ledo) no se puede legislar contra la realidad. Y la realidad es que un"
X Link 2025-09-27T12:01Z 46.2K followers, 184.1K engagements
"Was World War I unavoidable I often get this question most recently after posting my lecture slides on The Strange Death of Liberal Europe a couple of days ago. The answer matters for two reasons. First because the consequences of World War I are still with us. As I note in the slide reproduced below without the war and the subsequent Russian Revolution Karl Marx would be as faintly remembered today as Pierre-Joseph Proudhon or Ferdinand Lassalle; Hitler and Stalin would have been forgotten by history; and Lenin and Churchill known only to academic specialists in Russian or British history."
X Link 2025-10-26T01:55Z 46.2K followers, 84.6K engagements
"Hoy publico un artculo en @elconfidencial sobre la poltica exterior y de defensa de Estados Unidos: 🔗 El texto nace de una constatacin tan simple como deprimente: tras leer centenares de columnas uno advierte que en Europa y en Espaa de manera particularmente llamativa apenas se entiende la lgica interna de la poltica exterior y de defensa norteamericana. No se trata de compartirla o rechazarla sino de algo previo y ms elemental: comprender por qu un pas toma las decisiones desde su propia perspectiva estratgica. Basta con mirar los comentarios al artculo para comprobar que incluso despus de"
X Link 2025-11-08T12:14Z 46.2K followers, 52.7K engagements
"Interesante. En EE.UU. se ve ya mucho en el Partido Republicano y su nueva generacin de lderes. En Espaa como sabes yo siempre he aventurado hacia el [----]. Sin embargo el colapso del PP que he visto en las ltimas ocho semanas es ms acelerado de lo que yo aventuraba (aunque con las elecciones de Extremadura todo son dudas). Primero Vox contina subiendo en todas las encuestas y por primera vez est mordiendo en el electorado del PSOE mientras que el PP se estanca o baja. S ya s lo que va a decir todo el mundo (Ivn Redondo manipulando los datos) pero Vox parece haber dado con la tecla con Carlos"
X Link 2025-11-09T21:12Z 46.2K followers, 184.9K engagements
"Yesterday I gave the keynote address at the Bank of Spains Economics of Artificial Intelligence conference on Deep Learning in Economics: A Geometric Interpretation. The central point of my talk was that deep learning succeeds in economics because it offers a constructive way to work with better geometric representations of the underlying function-approximation problem all without relying heavily on domain knowledge. Sometimes the useful representation lives in lower dimensions; sometimes in higher ones. The key is that deep learning finds it for us. Just a few hours after my talk"
X Link 2025-11-14T12:52Z 46.2K followers, 70.6K engagements
"Mitos del sistema fiscal espaol (IV) Contino con mi serie de mitos del sistema fiscal espaol. Mito IV: El sistema de concierto vasco es igual/semejante/parecido a los sistemas federales de Estados Unidos Alemania Suiza y otros pases. Realidad: El sistema de concierto vasco es nico en el mundo y no se parece prcticamente en nada a lo que existe en Estados Unidos Alemania Suiza y otros pases con estructuras federales. La afirmacin no es ma es de Pedro Luis Uriarte (@ElConciertoPLUS) que lo denomina como: UN MODELO NICO EN EL MUNDO Un concierto tiene dos caractersticas: 1) El territorio bajo"
X Link 2025-05-17T09:13Z 46.2K followers, 150.8K engagements
"Gracias. Yo ca en la cuenta cuando hiciste un pantallazo de mi comentario sobre el sueldo de un ministro en Espaa: [--------] euros brutos anuales en [----]. Le las respuestas y me qued de piedra. Hubo quien afirm que con [------] euros brutos en Madrid se viva de cine. As que hice el siguiente ejercicio. Supuse que tena el [--] % de entrada para el piso ya ahorrado mir qu hipoteca te conceden hoy en Madrid con ese sueldo y busqu pisos en Mirasierra el barrio donde crec. Est bien sin duda pero no es precisamente Haverford. Resultado: puedes comprarte un piso de tres dormitorios decente en alguno de"
X Link 2025-05-29T12:04Z 46.2K followers, 171.4K engagements
"Daniel: Mi argumento es mucho ms sencillo: Si ests en el 0.2% superior de la distribucin de renta en otros pases occidentales tienes acceso a ciertas cosas en la vida que el 0.2% de la distribucin en Espaa no te permite. Esto demuestra simple y llanamente que Espaa es un pas pobre: son pobres los que estn en el 10% de la distribucin y son pobres los que estn en el 99.8% de la distribucin. Y si piensas que con 50k netos al mes puedes permitirte lujos de verdad lo siento mucho por ti. Obviamente nunca has disfrutado de la vida. Si en vez de dedicarte a salir por la tele te hubieses dedicado a"
X Link 2025-06-07T14:26Z 46.2K followers, 305.5K engagements
"The narrative linking Japans stagnation since [----] to its financial crisis is largely a myth more recently discussed in this episode of @dwarkeshpodcast. Japans growth performance is almost entirely explained by poor demographics. See Table [--] of my paper with @King_ofSweden and Wen Yao The Wealth of Working Nations: If you look beyond GDP or GDP per capitaand instead use GDP per working-age adult (defined in several robust ways to consider for instance that Japanese retire later than in other G7 economies) or output per hour workedJapan has kept pace with its peer group. In fact from [----] to"
X Link 2025-06-12T19:56Z 46.2K followers, 175.4K engagements
"Mexicos Fertility Collapse 📉 In [----] Mexicos total fertility rate (TFR) was just [----]. Yeslower than the U.S. (1.62 CDC). Yet every time I mention it people react with disbelief. 🧾 Slide from Mexicos official stats agency the Instituto Nacional de Estadstica y Geografa @INEGI: 🔗 Lets put this in context: In 1970: TFR = [----] In 2014: TFR = [----] In 2024: Early microdata (Subsistema de Informacin sobre Nacimientos SINAC) points to another dropbut lets stay cautious with early-release numbers. 📊 Whats striking: Mexicos [----] births [----] levels. Yet the population today is [--] larger. ✅ Also:"
X Link 2025-07-15T12:52Z 46.2K followers, 165K engagements
"Suiza NO tiene un sistema de cupo para todos. Quien afirme lo contrario o miente o no sabe de lo que habla. Suiza aplica un modelo de federalismo competitivo muy parecido al de Estados Unidos. La federacin recauda impuestos propios: [--] Impuesto federal sobre la renta [--] Impuesto federal sobre sociedades [--] IVA Y los cantones tienen su propio IRPF y su impuesto sobre sociedades cantonal. Cada nivel institucional tiene su base impositiva claramente delimitada. No estamos ante un sistema de cupo para todos porque no se cumple ninguno de los cuatro elementos que segn el propio Gobierno vasco definen"
X Link 2025-07-16T09:26Z 46.2K followers, 25.6K engagements
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