# ![@JaredSleeper Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::400330703.png) @JaredSleeper Jared Sleeper

Jared Sleeper posts on X about ai, products, ipo, company the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::400330703/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---------] +1,234%
- [--] Month [---------] +638%
- [--] Months [---------] +495%
- [--] Year [---------] +718%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::400330703/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +34%
- [--] Month [---] +221%
- [--] Months [---] +167%
- [--] Year [---] +185%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::400330703/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +5.80%
- [--] Month [------] +22%
- [--] Months [------] +49%
- [--] Year [------] +69%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::400330703/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  25.33% [finance](/list/finance)  22.67% [stocks](/list/stocks)  17.33% [countries](/list/countries)  1.33% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  1.33% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.33% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  0.67% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.67% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  0.67% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.67%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) 15.33%, [products](/topic/products) #1515, [ipo](/topic/ipo) 6.67%, [company](/topic/company) 5.33%, [okta](/topic/okta) 4.67%, [tear](/topic/tear) #247, [open ai](/topic/open-ai) #2518, [the next](/topic/the-next) #2007, [public](/topic/public) 3.33%, [docusign](/topic/docusign) 2.67%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@curiousjorge65](/creator/undefined) [@lefttailguy](/creator/undefined) [@jaredkubin](/creator/undefined) [@tdfirth](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined) [@rationaloptimi5](/creator/undefined) [@harrystebbings](/creator/undefined) [@joestakx](/creator/undefined) [@onlycfo](/creator/undefined) [@openai](/creator/undefined) [@stockmatters](/creator/undefined) [@mailman](/creator/undefined) [@figma](/creator/undefined) [@bgurley](/creator/undefined) [@kazanjy](/creator/undefined) [@shomikghosh21](/creator/undefined) [@longshorteqt](/creator/undefined) [@seekingvalue2](/creator/undefined) [@splehman](/creator/undefined) [@southernvalue95](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)](/topic/crowdstrike) [ServiceNow Inc (NOW)](/topic/servicenow) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Brookfield Corporation (BN)](/topic/$bn) [Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR)](/topic/$pcor) [Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)](/topic/cloudflare) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Zscaler Inc (ZS)](/topic/$zs) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Zoom has competed with free well-distributed products for years. It has 98% net retention and 4% growth. Yet it trades at 4.3x sales. Higher than Gitlab Atlassian Workday HubSpot etc. Why It has proven it has a place in the world and has a 25% GAAP EBIT margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022689983849730164)  2026-02-14T15:10Z 12.9K followers, 16K engagements


"Full presentation: https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026 https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014110386312593855)  2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 55.7K engagements


"Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from that what you will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021047071311360033)  2026-02-10T02:22Z 12.9K followers, 2M engagements


"@bucketshopcap Big difference seems to be that Datadog has material revenue from the AI natives. 6pts of growth last quarter. Otherwise all of the typical AI bear cases apply right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021257707299151965)  2026-02-10T16:19Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eight Datadog which is up 15% today after strong results: Peak share price: $199.72 (November 10th 2025) () Share price today: $ [------] (-32%) EV today: $43.4bn ARR today: $3.8bn +29% Y/y NRR: 120% (mid to high 90s gross retention) EV/ARR: 11.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+24% Y/y) What it does: Datadog is the leading observability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021265737692635389)  2026-02-10T16:51Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@JaredKubin Could be worth a few $bn but I don't think it changes the math wildly Still at a premium to the listed names. Now if there is retail froth re:Anthropic that could be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022695324675150051)  2026-02-14T15:31Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements


"At Avenir weve followed the emerging bear cases on SaaS closely. This 46-page deck contains our reflections and research on the path ahead. We see opportunity and risk as SaaS companies vie with AI natives to be "systems of context." Link in replies excited to discuss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014110277294252085)  2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 352.8K engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eleven Procore $PCOR which is up 10% today on earnings: Peak share price: $103.28 (July 30th 2021) Share price today: $52.94 (-49%) EV today: $7.8bn ARR today: $1.4bn (+16% Y/y) NRR: 106% (95% gross retention) EV/ARR: 5.6x GAAP Operating Margin: -12% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+4% Y/y) What it does: Procore is the leading vertical SaaS company for the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022408782203228390)  2026-02-13T20:33Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Amidst all of this January was the biggest month for SaaS hiring in the last two years.🤦♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022409890833322227)  2026-02-13T20:37Z 12.9K followers, 21.9K engagements


"@RationalOptimi5 Some yes but not enough to really change the numbers. Unless retail is frothing it up for that reason which is possible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022695573900726414)  2026-02-14T15:32Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Scaled public software companies that accelerated topline growth in Q3 2025: Autodesk Amplitude Appian Braze Bentley Systems Cloudflare CrowdStrike Datadog Guidewire HubSpot JFrog Procore Shopify Twilio ZScaler Currency helped in some cases but not too shabby tbh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2009472383766417641)  2026-01-09T03:48Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Defending SaaS valuations as cheap on an EV/FCF basis when it would take all or most of that FCF deployed as buybacks just to keep the share count flat is as unserious as predicting the imminent demise of Workday due to vibecoding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017606383164658157)  2026-01-31T14:30Z 12.9K followers, 23.1K engagements


"Agree. + to me the striking thing about this chart is that we simply don't have the counterfactual. If a company had punched in to the red box we could see if there was a positive impact on the multiple or a negative impact on revenue growth- that would be valuable data. The SaaS Profit Story Everyone Believes There is a very common story investors tell themselves about SaaS companies. First they grow fast then they scale and then at some point in the future they flip a switch and profits show up all at once. The early losses were intentional https://t.co/KRQ3IrWM5U The SaaS Profit Story"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017626394956648782)  2026-01-31T15:49Z 12.8K followers, 13.6K engagements


"I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) We accept the reality that investors want GAAP profits. Our LT operating/FCF margin targets are now GAAP targets with no change to the aspirations. We believe we are running a very high-quality business and that it should generate real economic FCF over time. 2) We believe that AI is transformational and can't be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017627604249952541)  2026-01-31T15:54Z 12.9K followers, 14.2K engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Given it is -15% today let's start with PagerDuty (PD): Peak share price: $57.37 (June 14th 2019) Share price today: $8.87 (-85%) EV today: $692m ARR today: $497m (+3% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 1.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 6.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 22x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native SRE startups/tooling resolve core alerting workflows. Tools like Resolve Traversal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018741243396710454)  2026-02-03T17:39Z 12.9K followers, 21K engagements


"@jasonlk thoughts on DocuSign at 2.5x EV/sales Do you see an imminent AI risk to the business or acceleration of commodification as a result No one on X knows this better than you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018795343190823064)  2026-02-03T21:14Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day two HubSpot: Peak share price: $841 (November 12th 2021) Share price today: $232 (-72%) EV today: $ 10.9bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 103% EV/ARR: 3.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 243x Headcount: [-----] (+21% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native CRM/marketing automation startups that are natively built around agents as users disrupt HubSpot's core businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019063785806315696)  2026-02-04T15:01Z 12.9K followers, 24.8K engagements


"@noodle_saint_7 They didn't understand the business very well at all and were just parroting any negative theses they could find. EDR led to internal triage workflows which led to a very rich product/pricing surface area + CrowdStrike executed well and cross-sold additional modules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019074836299989145)  2026-02-04T15:45Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day Three DocuSign: Peak share price: $310.05 (Sept 3rd 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-85%) EV today: $8.6bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 102% EV/ARR: 2.7x GAAP Operating Margin: 10.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 26x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: E-sign is an easy-to-build/lightweight product and will be built into AI native CRM/contract management/legal-tech tools as a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019454201143664964)  2026-02-05T16:52Z 12.9K followers, 11.9K engagements


"@Long_only_guy Easy is relative. Didi in China built their own version of DocuSign for internal use with four devs in a month six years ago. of course very different to build/manage a big enterprise platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019509798203736185)  2026-02-05T20:33Z 12.5K followers, [---] engagements


"NGMI $TEAM:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019530527062257830)  2026-02-05T21:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Downturn psychology relates to agency. Lowest agency: You're a trader a speculator you don't know what the underlying does or means. Investment goes down you panic. Mid agency: You're an investor. You have a view on value somewhat independent of current price. Investment goes down you incorporate new info but may have higher conviction depending. High agency: You're an operator of some kind. You can change the future. Investment goes down you incorporate new info and decide if you should change strategy/take action. You realize the world is what you make it and roll up your sleeves. Tough to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019542300297179165)  2026-02-05T22:43Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Semi-serious question: where are the AI/crypto crossovers Payments rails agent DAOs agents buying NFTs for clout a decentralized chat app with airtight privacy etc. etc. For the first time I see possibilities for (maybe) real crypto use cases and it is crickets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019564750938517957)  2026-02-06T00:12Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements


"This is pretty cool. Reminds me of custom Bloomberg setups. Seems like a natural way to interface with an agentswarm. hmm Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for everyone to create Mission Control. It will just be [--] click and you will have my Mission https://t.co/mxncH6SKMI Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019844398411112861)  2026-02-06T18:43Z 12.9K followers, 13.4K engagements


"@gham1lt0n @ai @13yearoldvc @dbarabander @SPLehman @jphackworth42 🙏🏻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019891531977748654)  2026-02-06T21:50Z 12.4K followers, [--] engagements


"This. Exactly this. Spot on. What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020130281466769654)  2026-02-07T13:39Z 12.8K followers, 16K engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day five: ServiceTitan which is down 37% YTD (): Peak share price: $129.26 (May 16th 2025) Share price today: $63.74 (-50%) EV today: $5.6bn ARR today: $958m (+26% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 5.8x GAAP Operating Margin: -11% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+15% Y/y) What it does: ServiceTitan provides cloud software for residential and commercial service contractors to manage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020141631916421556)  2026-02-07T14:24Z 12.9K followers, 23.2K engagements


"@tdfirth I think market making/arbing is a different spectrum entirely. For a start they tend to make more money during downturns due to volatility. I view them as pretty much orthogonal to the telos of investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020230600884646311)  2026-02-07T20:18Z 12.6K followers, [--] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day six ServiceNow which is down 34% YTD: Peak share price: $225 (Jan [--] 2025) Share price today: $100.74 (-55%) EV today: $ 100.5bn ARR today: $13.9bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 120% (as of May 2025) EV/ARR: 7.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 12.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 56x Headcount: [-----] (+11% Y/y) What it does: ServiceNow was founded in [----] as an Enterprise workflow platform. It found success"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020649548939685932)  2026-02-09T00:02Z 12.9K followers, 21.2K engagements


"@HarryStebbings I agree Vibecoding is much more likely to lead to an explosion of enterprise micro-apps than the replacement of core systems. Demand for good software remains elastic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020878724854341974)  2026-02-09T15:13Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements


"@SouthernValue95 I don't disagree with this especially re:margins. I think something drastic would have been better but I'm a broken record on this front. I doubt they needed an extra 30% headcount to "invest in AI" their total headcount today is about the same as Anthropic's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021045459008073797)  2026-02-10T02:16Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements


"One of my favorite software facts: When the pandemic hit Zoom had spent about $110m of cumulative R&D. Avaya (the phone company) had been consistently spending $200m/year with essentially nothing to show for it. Mapping innovation to R&D $$ is a fool's errand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021049630885281805)  2026-02-10T02:32Z 12.9K followers, 20K engagements


"@buccocapital It's a big tower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021049764586930324)  2026-02-10T02:33Z 12.9K followers, 49.5K engagements


"TIL Anthropic uses Qualtrics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021058091215880284)  2026-02-10T03:06Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Toast laid off half of its headcount during the lows of the pandemic when the return of the restaurant industry was impossible to predict. Six months later revenue was back to record levels. Revenue is up 7x since then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021237046300303439)  2026-02-10T14:57Z 12.9K followers, 10.2K engagements


"@joestakx if so there's a $1000000000 bill on the ground waiting for someone to pick it up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021252653863284892)  2026-02-10T15:59Z 12.9K followers, 17.2K engagements


"This is true but also underestimates how much of the job of financial advisers is emotional influence/shame. Tbc I don't have a high opinion of the profession but the evidence is that when people manage these things themselves it isn't great either. Add glazed AI in and I suspect you'll get even more craziness. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021319613498167385)  2026-02-10T20:25Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Incremental spend on ChatGPT (say Jan spend - Dec) in a credit card panel rebounded but remains well off highs. Billings are still growing 125% Y/y but recent months annualize at 40-50% Y/y growth. This is personal cards so doesn't capture Codex enterprise etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021594946906607968)  2026-02-11T14:39Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day nine Freshworks which is down 15% on earnings: Peak share price: $50.25 (Oct [--] 2021) Share price today: $7.26 (-85%) EV today: $ 1.45bn (+$780m cash so $2.2bn market cap) ARR today: $907m (+14% Y/y constant currency) NRR: 104% (constant currency) EV/ARR: 1.5x GAAP Operating Margin: 0% adjusted for one time items EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [-----] (+20% Y/y) What it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021624567102324903)  2026-02-11T16:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"The degree to which software management teams seem to have their heads in the sand on earnings calls so far is stunning. Buybacks/financial discipline/AI cost savings completely absent core businesses fine but zero "burn the boats" mindset around AI. NGMI that way I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021626742524551619)  2026-02-11T16:45Z 12.9K followers, 14K engagements


"RT @taobanker: No. I'm so fucking tired of people posting adjusted tech earnings. THIS IS WHY SOFTWARE IS DOWN SO MUCH: Tens of million"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022319935582585186)  2026-02-13T14:40Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements


"In December [----] I went to a buyside lunch in midtown to discuss CrowdStrike. Twenty investors. CrowdStrike was down 50% from its post-IPO highs and by show of hands [--] of [--] investors () were bearish. The arguments were airtight (and all still true today technically sort of): * Endpoint security is a commodity sector with low switching costs- employees don't know/care what is running on their laptops * Pricing in antivirus software collapsed over time EDR will follow the same arc * Microsoft/Palo/Checkpoint/etc. are bundling in free endpoint security products Stock is up 8x since then even"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019067321067684037)  2026-02-04T15:15Z 12.9K followers, 13.5K engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day four: Braze Peak share price: $94.16 (Nov [--] 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-81%) EV today: $1.8bn ARR today: $726m (+22% Y/y organic) NRR: 108% EV/ARR: 2.5x GAAP Operating Margin: -20% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+17% Y/y) What Braze does: Braze is an enterprise-scale system that lets companies trigger messages to users across channels like email push"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019806986779369857)  2026-02-06T16:14Z 12.9K followers, 10.1K engagements


"This simultaneously calms me and makes me feel attacked as a Roam user. 😭 The Notion workspace with fourteen linked databases tracking a life that does not require tracking. People got their bodies tattooed with Roam Research symbols in [----] people forget this now. https://t.co/bDCdltFo0A https://t.co/bDCdltFo0A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021955028907618735)  2026-02-12T14:30Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day ten- Box: Peak share price: $37.41 (June 5th 2025) Share price today: $22.83 (-XX%) EV today: $3.8bn ARR today: $1.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 104% EV/ARR: 3.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 8.3% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 38x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: Honestly I struggle here. Box has already been competing against free for years. If white-collar labor declines that could pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021976807520485614)  2026-02-12T15:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@OnlyCFO To be clear I think have of this headcount was already obsolete with a good OneStream/Blackline implementation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022335972462178542)  2026-02-13T15:44Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Easy to see how the models will be conscious in short order. Good memory + objective functions + chrons. At first hourly then every fifteen minutes every thirty seconds Somewhere around a tenth of a second well perceive them as having continuous streams of thought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022440051674902758)  2026-02-13T22:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day seven- Monday which is down 22% today and 48% YTD: Peak share price: $379.81 (Sept [--] 2021) Share price today: $76.17 (-80%) EV today: $2.7bn ARR today: $1.3bn (+25% Y/y) NRR: 110% EV/ARR: 2.1x () GAAP Operating Margin: 1% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 270x Headcount: [----] (+23% Y/y) What it does: Monday is a work management platform that competes with companies like Smartsheet Asana"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020957433565532609)  2026-02-09T20:26Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day twelve Zoom one of only six SaaS companies that is up year to date: Peak share price: $559 (Oct [--] 2020) Share price today: $92.6 (-83%) EV today: $21.3bn ARR today: $4.9bn (+4% Y/y) NRR: 98% (for enterprise customers) EV/ARR: 4.3x GAAP Operating Margin: 25.2% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 18x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: Tough one TBH but Zoom is in theory exposed to a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022687238870503623)  2026-02-14T14:59Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I love all the posts saying AI will lead to margin compression in SaaS. SaaS companies are a step ahead of you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022716134055690370)  2026-02-14T16:54Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@tanayj @sigmacomputing Alteryx was never fully appreciated IMO. Really well-loved by users less so by leaders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1887255336702132657)  2025-02-05T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PaneerCap @sigmacomputing It isn't a statistically significant difference but I don't have to guess- it was at 73% a year ago. :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1887257623847731225)  2025-02-05T21:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Each time I survey $SNOW vs. Databricks: * Most customers see them as complements not competitors. * If "forced to consolidate" they split the market. * Both are likely to see AI tailwinds. * $MSFT is the real threat to each. Sometimes the answer is porque no los dos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1887506550115152121)  2025-02-06T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BennettSiegel I'd say pretty standard by Series C though no Definitely not standard at seed and A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1888268101273227522)  2025-02-08T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"So many big moves (+/-20%) in SaaS on earnings this week already. Key quotes from the five biggest movers' earnings calls: $CFLT (+28%)- "I'm also thrilled to announce a major expansion of our strategic partnership with Databricks. This collaboration brings together Confluent's complete data streaming platform and Databricks's data intelligence platform to empower enterprises with real-time data for AI driven decision making. operational data from Confluent becomes a first-class citizen in Databricks and the insights created with Databricks can be driven back into any processor in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1889817225202221292)  2025-02-12T23:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Just finished processing a big survey of engineering decision makers with relevant results for @github @gitlab devtools and the future of software engineering itself. Here are the six punchiest charts: 1/ Make no mistake developers are still calling the shots:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1891917280017088571)  2025-02-18T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Curiousjorge65 Non-GAAP rule of [--] but yes I agree. Gitlab is worth $9.5bn at $1bn of ARR growing nicely with a natural AI cross-sell over time and a very durable position with its customers (code repos aren't going anywhere anytime soon)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1897781688379621885)  2025-03-06T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TwannsWorld @CoorsLightCEO Stock prices = measure of expected future returns = drives investment decisions. If the market wants an 8% return to own a SaaS company that company can invest more in S&M/R&D. If it suddenly demands a 15% return many of those investments are out of the money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1897782081453019170)  2025-03-06T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@S_curvecap @Beutty @DannyOcean555 "What is an API" - Genuine mutual fund PM question to me after putting an order in to buy the Twilio IPO post-roadshow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1900208880409321908)  2025-03-13T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It feels like every day there's a new AI/software deal at 50-100x ARR. Meanwhile so many high-quality public SaaS companies at 5-8x ARR. There's no way it isn't a disconnect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1902067646046343309)  2025-03-18T18:40Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements


"Experimental products with big claims (automate XYZ replace n employees etc.) lightweight implementations investor demand for optical "AI hypergrowth" and three-month break clauses create a very dangerous equilibrium. These funny-money tricks gotta stop. (Some) Investors passively encourage it founders use it to make number go up but it makes us all look worse https://t.co/uHbOKvSXGw These funny-money tricks gotta stop. (Some) Investors passively encourage it founders use it to make number go up but it makes us all look worse https://t.co/uHbOKvSXGw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1904537386941366480)  2025-03-25T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@matrixvc Fund V GOAT. 640% IRR Venture capital in the 90s was wild Good funds had triple digit IRRs https://t.co/zlZ9qhDIg3 Venture capital in the 90s was wild Good funds had triple digit IRRs https://t.co/zlZ9qhDIg3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1904903459821809706)  2025-03-26T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The path to the US becoming a banana republic is so depressingly clear. Well trodden even. Tariffs = higher inflation + recession = Fed raises rates = Trump blames Fed = makes them cut rates = inflationary spiral. He will brag that nominal stock prices are up too 🤦🏼♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1907575028935270495)  2025-04-02T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"4-6x ARR* It feels like every day there's a new AI/software deal at 50-100x ARR. Meanwhile so many high-quality public SaaS companies at 5-8x ARR. There's no way it isn't a disconnect. It feels like every day there's a new AI/software deal at 50-100x ARR. Meanwhile so many high-quality public SaaS companies at 5-8x ARR. There's no way it isn't a disconnect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1907809900928852344)  2025-04-03T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The thing about the recession odds being 60% is that paired with widespread awareness it becomes self-fulfilling. Makes sense to prepare for a recession with these odds which almost always means spending less/delaying investments. And the feedback loop begins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1908153916459520274)  2025-04-04T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bucketshopcap @JaredKubin I certainly think it would make less of a ripple than a company laying of [---] people as a result of AI in more normal economic times But you're right. may be be enough of a lightning rod that it doesn't matter either way. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1908615084781236465)  2025-04-05T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rabois @BennettSiegel Regardless of whatever real or imagined imbalances there were creating an economic shock and recessionary feedback loop is good for literally no one. Especially the kids- have you read the research on kids who graduate into a recession Here it is: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/recession-graduates-long-lasting-effects-unlucky-draw https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/recession-graduates-long-lasting-effects-unlucky-draw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1908896691182326121)  2025-04-06T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Fox Business homepage is so sadly hilarious tonight. Worse than state-run media"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1909021148869689412)  2025-04-06T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"4/ This chart was perhaps the most surprising/contranarrative of the survey. We asked buyers whether AI was a tailwind or headwind for various vendors. The chart below shows "% saying tailwind" - "% saying headwind." This only includes vendors with [--] respondents"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912512398881087937)  2025-04-16T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Curiousjorge65 Im honestly not sure Just reporting the data as it fell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912549485546213856)  2025-04-16T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@matt_slotnick @Curiousjorge65 Gitlab/ServiceNow and many of the surprisingly neutral answers are driven by expected headcount reductions I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912661026790683114)  2025-04-17T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Two distinct clusters of AI-native startups are raising growth rounds: 1) Pro/consumer apps applying LLMs to give people superpowers. 2) Palantir-esque enterprise AI platforms building with a set of design partners. Both require new frameworks. These aren't SaaS companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912928299027751181)  2025-04-17T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lefttailguy @normativeai @RogoAI @EndexAI @actively_ai @glean @harvey__ai I would argue @glean is the most traditional enterprise software of all of the AI-native companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912979918054375898)  2025-04-17T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lefttailguy @normativeai @RogoAI @EndexAI @actively_ai Tons. Sadly looking at a bunch of them so can't name them here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1912980031581663482)  2025-04-17T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Couple things: [--]. I think to reach massive scale unless you are a devtool will high ACVs have to scale outside of tech [--]. Where a company is along that journey all else equal can be a useful analytical tool. If two companies are at $50m ARR and one is 70%+ tech (they exist) and the other is 25% I'd probably bet on the 25% company doing better over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1914438722050761088)  2025-04-21T21:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Spent a few hours vibe-coding this week. Time to working demo: [--] minutes. Mind-blowing 🤯 Time to V0 (Twilio Supabase OpenAI integrations working): [--] hours but [--] days. Twilio regulations were a bottleneck. 😌 Time to polished public launch: TBD this weekend 🥳"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1914797886749241443)  2025-04-22T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PLTR is one of the largest software companies on Earth with a market cap larger than $CRM (). It will generate close to $5bn of revenue this year with 30% growth and is profitable. I've been digging in this week to understand it better. Here's what I've learned: [--]. First off Palantir has done an exceptional job at maintaining talent density over time. Though many employees are incredibly wealthy thanks to the growth of the share price Palantir actually paid below market for university talent historically- they were attracted to hands-on nature of the work the culture and (yes) the mystique."  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1915894899821396039)  2025-04-25T22:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@tdfirth Exactly. Couldn't agree more. Even in the narrow code-replication case there is an ungodly amount of unwritten unknown context required which requires humans to find/assemble (at least today)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1917283125320679566)  2025-04-29T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"One thing that concerns me for software is that economic impacts will be felt based on sales cycle length (including unobserved length i.e. customers deliberating before kicking off a process). We're a month out from liberation day- not long enough for most to see an impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1917359113593577875)  2025-04-29T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lefttailguy Copilot is perhaps just barely a majority of net new ARR for Github and that is one of the more direct/high value use cases. I think software net new ARR is coming from the same places as before by and large"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1917373589000499634)  2025-04-30T00:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On Jan 17th the odds of a recession in [----] on Kalshi were 17%. They are 60% now. The S&P [---] is only down 5% since then. Either Kalshi is wrong (and to be fair it is a thin market) or the market doesn't know what "recession" means (and to be fair it's been a while)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1919422158020694286)  2025-05-05T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It works I'm blown away. A full working app with @twilio @stripe and @supabase and a semi-useful/fun AI application via @OpenAI. All without writing a line of code. @lovable_dev is amazing. Tightening up a few things to make sure it is ready for primetime this weekend. 😊 Update- still spending 1-2 hours per day fighting to get a fairly trivial feature implemented. Lovable is running in the background as a junior/very literal engineer who will take instructions try some stuff and report back. Fits naturally into other workflows happily Update- still spending 1-2 hours per day fighting to get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1920484706597908679)  2025-05-08T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@tdfirth @twilio @stripe @supabase @OpenAI @lovable_dev 🙏 thank you for helping to test the Stripe webhook 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1920523849487073729)  2025-05-08T16:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Does anyone have good examples of emerging AI-first software companies that are growing primarily by replacing existing incumbents (vs. adding net-new use cases) Ideally ones with meaningful scale. Public markets investors seem to think there are many such stories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936113132457398347)  2025-06-20T17:25Z [----] followers, 17.7K engagements


"@stock_matters but not really replacing any one vendor per se right Doesn't lead to a "bear case" on an particular existing company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936118085620023300)  2025-06-20T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@__mailman__ Is there a particular company you think takes IVR replacement on the chin Five9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936118290172039443)  2025-06-20T17:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@RightTailCap @chetanp I'd love them @chetanp :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936118616329474314)  2025-06-20T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Crubenfeld @__mailman__ There a tons of revenue in shitty software period Look at Constellation. But it feels like there is a narrative mismatch here- folks assume that AI with be a death knell for these vendors. On the ground I don't really see it happening. Would love to be proven wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936121348222263679)  2025-06-20T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lefttailguy @Crubenfeld @__mailman__ Not positive for sure- but I think there's still growth left"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936122298546712623)  2025-06-20T18:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lefttailguy @stock_matters I'm not sure I agree here- at least would expect them to be growing much faster if this were really occurring. Commercial business is still tiny relative to SaaS and not in hypergrowth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936130745040335024)  2025-06-20T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stock_matters Could just be taking an outsize share of GDP growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936131132749214057)  2025-06-20T18:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lorenzoligato does it typically replace one given tool Looks like it is mostly compared to Argo on G2 (I haven't heard of Argo)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936131384612982998)  2025-06-20T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EranBenHorin @drinkzima @usepylon I don't consider Shutterstock software. I agree Adobe is a big potential loser. Not sure there's photoshop replacement happening yet though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1936159830349152616)  2025-06-20T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"One role for humans in a world of cheap superintelligence: we'll remain advantaged gatherers of HUMINT. This has already played out in public markets arguably. Any machine-accessible data will be table stakes which will put a premium on the info we have unique access to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1937915414794703201)  2025-06-25T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If you had told [----] me that CyberArk would be bigger than Okta in [----] I never would have believed you. Especially considering that Okta has twice as much ARR today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1944085915728531722)  2025-07-12T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not naming names but there is a set of public SaaS companies trading 5x revs that really frustrates me: Solid net retention. Great products. Growth has slowed but is still 15%+. But: High SBC. No GAAP profits. No AI narrative on costs or rev. It's a shame"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1945175007329427780)  2025-07-15T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@shots_goal Yes. But I'd much rather earn a 20% IRR with a TB put option for the next five years than a one time 30% premium :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1945201384208376117)  2025-07-15T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Hold your friends who still specialize in SaaS investing close tonight. 🥲"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1947369507179143452)  2025-07-21T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Spending the day locked in on the next iteration of our annual software deck. If there are questions on your mind about the future/present state of software (public/private) please comment Hoping we can add something meaningful to the conversation with this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1947650837699842385)  2025-07-22T13:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When you think about it it is remarkable how little compute the average software tool was utilizing relative to its pricing/value. That seems set to change in a big way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1948031702070149297)  2025-07-23T14:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SlightlyOpenAI What do you think is the best SaaS bear case right now My view is trending towards- there is no real bear case but also no new bull case. AI is sort of passing SaaS by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1948048832522334211)  2025-07-23T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I wonder if some of the struggles in infrastructure software come down to chasing SaaS gross margins (70%) while being effectively a value-added reseller of compute/storage from cloud vendors. Those are probably unsustainable margins. That said hasn't hurt Snowflake yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1950926762109739231)  2025-07-31T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wait- I thought the IPO window was closed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1950986734541381808)  2025-07-31T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Fascinating that Figma's IPO has private SaaS investors licking their chops (and looking through their portfolio wondering what to list this fall) meanwhile SaaS stocks overall (WCLD) were down 3% today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1951008487141711928)  2025-07-31T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not remotely surprsingly that @figma has a top [--] Grindscore amongst all venture backed companies with [---] Glassdoor reviews. Grindscore = % of employees "Positive Business Outlook" / "Work Life Balance." Low WLB + employees who believe in the company = success"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1952163656520921115)  2025-08-04T00:24Z [----] followers, 341.3K engagements


"@atShruti @figma Thats a tough one. Maybe if you can get access to their slack admin dashboards and benchmark 🙃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1952242850474942626)  2025-08-04T05:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Happy to see the Grindscore going viral yesterday. Always fun when people like a new metric or way to think about data. By popular demand here are the highest Grindscore public software companies (of those I follow closely):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1952433351748735222)  2025-08-04T18:16Z [----] followers, 180.2K engagements


"@BreakingSaaS @bgurley I honestly think direct is best for all unless meaningful primary capital is being raised. The market is not path dependent- will have zero impact on the price 6-12 months out. If the company is temporarily undervalued that will be an inducement for investors to do more work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1952574562069299611)  2025-08-05T03:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I completely disagree with this. IMO it is a classic generalist take that comes out in periods of pervasive pessimism. The worst-case scenario for software is that it misses the boat on AI monetization. We're arguably trending there now and it's not good for the sector. But I'm a firm believer in actually following the facts on the ground- and the reality is I can find almost no example of legacy SaaS taking it on the chin from AI- nor private "AI native" companies that are built on ripping out legacy SaaS. There's a world where SaaS misses out on AI (or is very late to it) but still does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1953819004520337705)  2025-08-08T14:02Z [----] followers, 40.5K engagements


"@Kazanjy I just don't see it. Don't get me wrong I would love to see a bunch of startups grow ripping out ServiceNow/Salesforce/Workday/Veeva/etc. But that's not what is happening at the early stages/in early growth today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1953838477046403217)  2025-08-08T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Kazanjy As an early growth investor would love this I genuinely hope it happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1953854669295325392)  2025-08-08T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Kazanjy @dunkrugering It's a great theory but if true there should be a massive wave of incumbent chasing startups. Still don't see it. +the copy to India play only semi-worked. Freshworks' innovation was arguably sticking inside sales in India"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1953856357565599776)  2025-08-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Amazing how investors can forget the implications of investing at peak hype. Consider SaaS in 2020-2022. I took the @Wing_VC enterprise tech [--] from [----] filtered down to the [--] companies that achieved unicorn valuations tracked their peak valuation and compared to their most recently announced valuation. As far as I can tell (please correct if you see a mistake) only three have raised at up rounds from that peak: @figma @VerkadaHQ and @databricks. The Nasdaq is up 42% from its [----] peak. Many (most) are still great companies- but human behaviors rhyme with history and hype blinds folks to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1953871685192441959)  2025-08-08T17:31Z [----] followers, 159.7K engagements


"If it goes on for long enough the catalyst will be job cuts/GAAP EPS. In the meantime potentially a narrative shift now that frontier models are disappointing. People still employed in white collar work means they still use software. :) OR the old favorite- strategics/PE start to buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1955410517775794242)  2025-08-12T23:26Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"The handwringing around GPT-4o disappearing shouldn't be so surprising. It is hardly unprecedented for people to seek emotional solace via technology. See: novels TV shows etc. Have you ever visited the subreddit of a popular TV show after its cancellation was announced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1955635558082076923)  2025-08-13T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A win for survey data $SNOW Fresh narrative violations from our most recent large sample analytics/data stack survey: 70% of Snowflake customers think AI will boost their spend on Snowflake by more than 20% in the next two years. 74% think Sridhar has increased $SNOW's pace of product development. https://t.co/QYQEmCuzxY Fresh narrative violations from our most recent large sample analytics/data stack survey: 70% of Snowflake customers think AI will boost their spend on Snowflake by more than 20% in the next two years. 74% think Sridhar has increased $SNOW's pace of product development."  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1961043953643290996)  2025-08-28T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Consensus investing: Early = oligopoly prices capped. Great firms earn brand rents. Public = prices kept in check by market forces/liquidity "consensus" /= signal. Growth = prices uncapped/set by high bidders FOMO reigns. Growth = the worst place to be consensus 🤔 The idea that non consensus investing is where the alpha is is actually quite dangerous in the early stage. Follow on capital tends to be more and more consensus aligned. The idea that non consensus investing is where the alpha is is actually quite dangerous in the early stage. Follow on capital tends to be more and more consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1961474581841019322)  2025-08-29T17:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lorenzoligato Trust me there is very much a consensus in early stage and growth. :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1961553853930782859)  2025-08-29T22:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Figma's decline since its IPO isn't evidence in favor of traditional IPOs as some say- quite the opposite Lockups/low floats increase the risk of retail-driven price distortions. Public markets aren't perfect but direct listings get to the clearing price faster. @bgurley"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1963615458663309437)  2025-09-04T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@OnlyCFO @bgurley I agree. It makes no sense to use post-IPO prices to argue about money left on the table. Perhaps there's hesitancy to say anything negative about companies Figma is a truly incredible business- but also was likely overvalued post-IPO. We can walk and chew gum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1963617244446941378)  2025-09-04T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"One of the toughest pitches for a founder to nail is a business reinflection that isn't obvious from revenue growth. I'm interested in these sorts of pitches so I get them a lot. Here's how to help someone build conviction in a turnaround: First it is important to understand what you're up against. Many investors prefer to spend their time sifting through the large set of companies that are "working" (exponential topline growth) and then investing in those. There are various good reasons for this but an important one for these purposes is that when an investor backs something non-consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1964030198858301811)  2025-09-05T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The top [--] global airlines combined have about half the market cap of Oracle. Revenue is not created equal- and mental models that implicitly equate "business value" with "societal importance" (common at early stage/early growth) are woefully incomplete"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1964774177170448443)  2025-09-07T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SaaS companies arguably spent the last decade running as far from genuine deep customer engagement as possible. Services Implementation All outsourced to SIs for the sake of scalability/margins (at the behest of investors). Leaves them flatfooted for AI implementation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1964833605949247638)  2025-09-07T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It's still early but my ChatGPT usage seems to have peaked around the time GPT-5 came out. Certainly no sign of an increase since then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1965788466383577126)  2025-09-10T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One of my all-time favorite pieces of research. Those emails from Nigerian Princes They were deliberately obvious. Most of the time spent/cost was further down the funnel so it was more cost effective to only engage with very gullible people: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/WhyFromNigeria.pdf https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/WhyFromNigeria.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1966617025117069569)  2025-09-12T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For all of the AI talk headcount additions for our SaaS index have stayed remarkably consistent so far this year:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1968308742304538683)  2025-09-17T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@shomikghosh21 This is true Just really question the gross retention of that revenue even relative to core Wix"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1969572588780183556)  2025-09-21T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This graph is pretty scary. Job growth going asymptotic doesn't mean a recession but it does reduce economic resilience. A smaller shock can tip into a negative feedback loop. That + inflation running hot + some blatant asset bubbles leave us in a precarious place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1970497643689414934)  2025-09-23T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just found some sweet new visualizations showing hiring flows to/from companies. h/t @synaptic_data Here are a few of the most interesting. To start: @OpenAI employees leave for @AnthropicAI moreso than anywhere else but the reverse isn't true. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1970537217044226403)  2025-09-23T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ Anthropic employees leave for Google:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1970537219703349467)  2025-09-23T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2/ and come from Stripe Google and Meta:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1970537222945546458)  2025-09-23T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"3/ @Meta is hiring from Microsoft/Amazon:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1970537225508266226)  2025-09-23T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Who would have bet six months ago that GPT-5 wouldnt be a top five model on LLM Arena and that three older OpenAI models would be ranked ahead of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1972309419863261379)  2025-09-28T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Typical SaaS CEO: 1) "AI will add enormous value by reducing labor spend." 2) "We have zero/de minimis live AI-native revenue as of today." 3) "We're investing (aka hiring) aggressively to make sure we benefit from this trend." The next few years will be fascinating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1972802202314928227)  2025-09-29T23:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ramp's product team cooks like few others. Today we launched @tryamps newest AI Agent built to automate Accounts Payable from start to finish. - It codes approves prevents fraud and even finds cashback automatically. - Already saving customers millions covered in @business this morning too. We hope you love it. https://t.co/jWzXYzP94B Today we launched @tryamps newest AI Agent built to automate Accounts Payable from start to finish. - It codes approves prevents fraud and even finds cashback automatically. - Already saving customers millions covered in @business this morning too. We hope you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1975578728957944154)  2025-10-07T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Another promising SaaS IPO (Okta) in the works. Congrats to @toddmckinnon and the rest of the team http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/03/22/Another-promising-SaaS-IPO-Okta%E2%80%99s-S-1-summary-and-report-card http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/03/22/Another-promising-SaaS-IPO-Okta%E2%80%99s-S-1-summary-and-report-card"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/844671370818715648)  2017-03-22T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Okta will IPO as the fastest growing and most loss-making (% basis) public SaaS company. Fascinating to watch. http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/03/27/Takeaways-from-Oktas-latest-S-1-and-updated-valuation-analysis-well-learn-something-about-investor-psychology-from-how-it-trades http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/03/27/Takeaways-from-Oktas-latest-S-1-and-updated-valuation-analysis-well-learn-something-about-investor-psychology-from-how-it-trades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/846441311414685696)  2017-03-27T19:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Okta raised its IPO price range to $15-17/share. Here's an updated comparables valuation chart at $17/share (Cloudera included at $4bn):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/849616948824559616)  2017-04-05T13:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Pick your metaphor: calm before the storm darkest before the dawn (brightest before dusk) etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/861670650083250177)  2017-05-08T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Two charts very relevant to cryptocurrencies right about now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/867079576224235520)  2017-05-23T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Five public software companies that spent more on R&D than sales & marketing in 2016: $TWLO $WDAY $TEAM $GWRE $ELLI http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/05/24/Five-public-software-companies-spent-more-on-RD-than-sales-in-2016-Should-they-be-proud http://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/05/24/Five-public-software-companies-spent-more-on-RD-than-sales-in-2016-Should-they-be-proud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/867424235504926720)  2017-05-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$MULE $OKTA $CLDR trading 50% above initial IPO ranges all but $CVNA are up. Window is open. hope this means a slew of IPOs this fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/867876750889562113)  2017-05-25T22:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"New post: Three ways to prepare your startup for an economic downturn: https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/08/02/Three-ways-to-prepare-your-startup-for-an-economic-downturn https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/08/02/Three-ways-to-prepare-your-startup-for-an-economic-downturn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/892849508832256000)  2017-08-02T20:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#ICOs advertising on the web feels. weirdly brazen. Imagine if $SNAP ran banner ads for its IPO back when it was a whitepaper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/905193512202891266)  2017-09-05T22:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The most efficiently growing public SaaS companies are $SHOP $WIX $NOW $VEEV and $MULE. Here's the common trait: https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/10/14/What-the-most-efficiently-growing-SaaS-companies-have-in-common https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/single-post/2017/10/14/What-the-most-efficiently-growing-SaaS-companies-have-in-common"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/919309668794716160)  2017-10-14T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Be wary when greed outweighs investing fundamentals. Searches for "housing bubble" peaked a year before prices ('06). People bought anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/919963924014956545)  2017-10-16T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Historical chart of gold worthy studying w.r.t. $BTC. Two exponential curves ("bubbles") but in both cases ended up at a plateau far higher than before very different from other asset bubbles. This is probably what the Bitcoin endgame looks like approximately #bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/938808871166111746)  2017-12-07T16:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Seeing this ad on Coinmarketcap today is just too much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/953289484715651072)  2018-01-16T15:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As I calculate it Dropbox $DBX has ended up at= $114bn of fully diluted enterprise value. Remarkably smooth IPO process that reminds me of $OKTA and $MULE. Hopefully this is just the start of a great year for tech IPOs more broadly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/977254812839567361)  2018-03-23T18:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Market cap of crypto: $250bn Market cap of companies on the Thai Stock Exchange (2016): $368bn http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-stock-exchanges-by-size/ http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-stock-exchanges-by-size/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/982237040279367680)  2018-04-06T12:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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