#  @Jamie1Coutts Jamie Coutts CMT Jamie Coutts CMT suggests that recent market conditions are favorable for owning risk assets, including crypto, as liquidity and debt imbalances are improving. He notes that Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets already bottomed in 2022-2023. Coutts is predicting a new all-time high for Bitcoin and top [---] crypto market cap by May. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::317840597/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -89% - [--] Month [-------] +186% - [--] Months [---------] +13% - [--] Year [---------] -21% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::317840597/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -13% - [--] Month [--] +29% - [--] Months [--] no change - [--] Year [---] -57% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::317840597/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.29% - [--] Month [------] +7.80% - [--] Months [------] +19% - [--] Year [------] +51% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::317840597/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #6634, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #1425, [money](/topic/money), [crypto](/topic/crypto), [in the](/topic/in-the), [market](/topic/market), [blockchain](/topic/blockchain), [$btc](/topic/$btc), [ethereum](/topic/ethereum), [bullish](/topic/bullish) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@realvision](/creator/undefined) [@raoulgmi](/creator/undefined) [@bitformanceteam](/creator/undefined) [@bitteljulien](/creator/undefined) [@dsbatten](/creator/undefined) [@artemisxyz](/creator/undefined) [@solana](/creator/undefined) [@business](/creator/undefined) [@tokenterminal](/creator/undefined) [@crypto](/creator/undefined) [@greentyler27](/creator/undefined) [@andreassteno](/creator/undefined) [@robertkennedyjr](/creator/undefined) [@caprioleio](/creator/undefined) [@cburniske](/creator/undefined) [@crossbordercap](/creator/undefined) [@aixbtagent](/creator/undefined) [@bbgintelligence](/creator/undefined) [@bloomberg](/creator/undefined) [@42macroweather](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/solana) [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) [BlackRock Inc (BLK)](/topic/blackrock) [Near Protocol (NEAR)](/topic/$near) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@CryptoHayes Lets look beyond US & add global money supply (M2) into the mix -- our custom index of the [--] of the largest economies' has contracted by 7.47% ($7T). Of the top [--] most of the tightening has come from local currencies depreciating & not M2 contraction (only US M2 is down YTD)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1580528864329191427) 2022-10-13T12:00Z 27.5K followers, [--] engagements "While $BTCs symbiosis with the macro makes it vulnerable in a rate-hiking cycle we expect the network to resume its growth trajectory later this yr as it moves beyond the carnage inflicted by the failure of financial intermediaries. A $BTCs Network-Adoption metrics🧵 #glassnode" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1613166408342405124) 2023-01-11T13:30Z 27.4K followers, [----] engagements "#ETH Staking: network absorbs withdrawals hits ATH. 15% staked below ind' avg' 50%+ Deflation: More activity ➡ to L2 but protocol still burns 2.4x daily issuance (ann inflation -0.80%) Yield: When factoring in MEV the $ETH real staking yield 8% @Bloombergintelligence" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1663515619243728896) 2023-05-30T12:00Z 19.4K followers, [----] engagements "The tight correlation observed between the #Nasdaq and #Ethereum is indicating a potential upward breakout for $ETH. While the rise of $NVDA and #AI has propelled the $NDX higher market breadth remains lousy. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1663530721594470400) 2023-05-30T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Ethereum's fee burn mechanism is superior to stock buybacks because; 1) It is based purely on network demand (reflexive) 2) Not funded by debt At -0.80% inflation rate its only slightly behind $META/$MSFT. The next bull cycle $ETH is likely to see $AAPL level deflation of 4-5%" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1663878512783024128) 2023-05-31T12:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "🔍 Despite short-term challenges for risk assets induced by a Fed-enabled liquidity crunch analysis of Ethereum's network fundamentals reveal an improving outlook 📈 Under the hood critical indicators; fees staking adoption and L2s are show positive signs 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1664596711438942208) 2023-06-02T11:35Z 19.4K followers, [----] engagements "But price will depend on activity and adoption. The ratio of active addresses (blue) shows that SOL had approximately [---] times the number of users than ETH in [----]. This has fallen to roughly 1:1 with about [------] active addresses interacting with each chain daily" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1674387832310300674) 2023-06-29T13:32Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "@ManishKSingh79 Appreciated @ManishKSingh79. I def incl L2s in assessing ETH network value. But there is an adj factor for L2s (not 1:1 to L1)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1674553647622131713) 2023-06-29T23:12Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "#Bitcoin forces the protected inefficient rent seeking financial sector to innovate. There is an obv reason 1/3 world is unbanked. Now CB's will use blockchain to enshrine their totalitarian impulses. The PROGRAMMABLE part is the only aspect of Blockchain they truly care about" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1676734459310383104) 2023-07-05T23:27Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "The most talked about liquidity measure on the street is diverging. While the statistical relationship with risk assets is not as strong as touted it is still an important indicator to watch. 3-mth momentum has turned negative. 1st time since Fed bank bailout in March. $Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1677045339382239233) 2023-07-06T20:02Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Global liquidity contracting (again). Past 3mths: G5 CB balance sheets -$486b & Global M2 -$1.28T. This money supply contraction amidst a steady Dollar hints at bank-led credit squeeze. Without a pivot tough enviro for risk assets #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1677286349383106560) 2023-07-07T12:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Introducing Bloomberg Intelligence's new Crypto Ecosystem (PoS Assets) Fundamentals Dashboard. We're expanding coverage beyond the two assets that we considered to be institutional-grade quality (BTC ETH) to the wider proof-of-stake (PoS) ecosystem. A 🧵 on why" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1679823067223040001) 2023-07-14T12:00Z 51.7K followers, 311.5K engagements "@marceIogranja @cburniske I post most research on this platform. If you want to be added to my email distribution then send me your address. Cheers" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1688502931702923264) 2023-08-07T10:50Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "#Ethereum Fee Revenue (USD) has outpaced the $ETH price YTD as economic activity expands independent of price speculation. This is the first time in 2yrs that Fees are outperforming Price making [----] look a lot like [----]. @BBGIntelligence" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1689079916879634432) 2023-08-09T01:03Z 10.2K followers, 13.4K engagements "The dual surprise of faster L2 adoption and less than expected cannibalization of the L1 financials hasour confidence in #Ethereum's potential to accrue more value than alternative L1s over the cycle. A🧵on the changing dynamics of $ETHs network fundamentals from thein L2s" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1689425525767553024) 2023-08-09T23:56Z 10.2K followers, 25.9K engagements "The liquidity situation has worsened since July prompted by dollar strength and further CB balance sheet contraction. Its very difficult for risk assets to rally in this environment. A CB pivot is hopium until more things break. Despite falling correlations #Bitcoin still a way off from a decoupling from risk assets. Global liquidity contracting (again). Past 3mths: G5 CB balance sheets -$486b & Global M2 -$1.28T. This money supply contraction amidst a steady Dollar hints at bank-led credit squeeze. Without a pivot tough enviro for risk assets #Bitcoin https://t.co/08T8HUSmLV Global liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1692023579347755445) 2023-08-17T04:00Z 19.4K followers, 27.4K engagements "#paypal's #stablecoin exposes many new users to #Web3. Bridges are great but if the blockchain econ is to grow apps have a ways to go before mainstream adoption. In Dev Mkts stables are vital for #NFTs gaming & beyond but currently token spec & payments are main use cases 1/3" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1692132357837566191) 2023-08-17T11:12Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "It was several liquidity metrics in my macro model which pointed to a risk asset rug pull back in July. Gravity always asserts itself eventually. What now for #BitcoinHistorically (10Y avg)-Sept is worst month (-6%) followed by what is usually the strongest quarter esp Nov (+47%)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1692311103207031141) 2023-08-17T23:03Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Mark_Sisson [----] was when I discovered you and your content has been nothing short of transformative. Thank you for the knowledge and wisdom" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1692699293319397487) 2023-08-19T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "While the network has stagnated since [----] we are clearly seeing rising adoption from each cycle low albeit at a slower pace" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1694264289698468282) 2023-08-23T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "What does this mean for valuation My Price/Active Entity z-score identifies major bottom inflection points. For the first time since 1Q23 $btc is undervalued on this metric but not yet extremely oversold/cheap. However recent action has de-risked the asset from this perspective" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1694264294970737062) 2023-08-23T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "#Ethereum ecosystem is expanding at pace w/ active addrs in L1/L2 hitting ATHs 1.97m. Based on L1 active addresses the network is fairly valued. Once we add in the exploding L2s the network appears undervalued at [-----] StdDev. 1/4" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1694611658830938256) 2023-08-24T07:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "👀Stablecoins Eclipse #Mastercard #PayPal Leading Digital Money Evolution A thread from today's note on the @Bloomberg terminal which looks at a representative dataset of fiat-backed #stablecoins on the largest Layer-1 #crypto networks" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007005587693766) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Stablecoin Payments Overtook Mastercard in [----] 👉 in '22 stables on various L1s transacted $6.87T surpassing trad payment co's. 👉#Bitcoin did even more than #visa 👉This year volumes have plummeted 80% w/ hostile US regs and bear mkt exposing the extent of cyclicality/spec" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007008779624797) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "But stable issuance is set to explode 👉PayPal's decision to issue $PYUSD leapfrogs competitors addressing growth concerns via crypto's open networks. 👉The potential implication for crypto assets especially Ethereum is a big deal if only a small % of PYPL users convert" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007011711377779) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Note: though this scenario looks extremely positive for the asset it's unrealistic at present given current network constraints in the form of transaction costs and L1 capacity. More on that later" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007014655758562) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "👉Visa and Mastercard are investing in & integrating with open networks 👉I expect to see more announcements & innovation from more payments companies in coming months" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007017247883489) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "While the structural adoption trend might have been hampered by tightening liquidity and an anti-crypto US reg environment the potential for this new money to dominate global payments will be largely determined by the efforts of public blockchains to process more transactions" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007020213309586) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "And I get it #Tron is not exactly the pin up child for decentralized and transparent networks. Which is probably why it hasnt absorbed all of USDTs mkt cap -48% vs 42% on ETH-its not all about cheaper and faster txs. The mkt perceives a high security risk" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007038747844881) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "👉But its pretty clear that #Ethereum will be the winner in the upcoming stablecoin wars 👉Across most network-adoption verticals ETH or its broader ecosystem which includes fast-growing rollup chains (L2s) such as #Optimism #Base #Arbitrum lead all alternative networks" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007041771991499) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "👉However today the cost of transferring the largest stablecoin USDT on Ethereum is magnitudes more than the cost on other networks especially L2s. 👉ETHs rollup-centric scaling roadmap will make L2 txs even cheaper (10-100X) next yr with EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007045202956526) 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Itshighly likely that PYUSD was launched on L1 bc thats where the liquidity and network effect is but will move to L2s and/or PayPal might spin up its own sovereign rollup similar to Coinbase" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1695007048222842921) 2023-08-25T09:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Bitcoin's integration into the global macro fabric evident by US liquidity index's effectiveness as a risk on/off overlay; 👉Bullish (long) regimes profitable 67% of time avg 31.69% return max drawdown 20% 👉Bearish (short) regimes profitable 50% of time 3.56% return max" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1696438615226925433) 2023-08-29T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Despite being kneecapped by the SEC for [--] years while other jurisdictions leapfrog with spot ETP solns the US still accounts for 80% of total #Bitcoin Fund assets w/ #Grayscale 55% of the total. Now we are looking at unlocking billions in Retail/RIA/Institutional capital that" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1696692693253095732) 2023-08-30T01:13Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Liquidity & #Bitcoin are inexorably linked. For in-depth analysis on this topic you cant go past @42MacroWeather @RaoulGMI @crossbordercap @MacroAlf This 🧵 explores one specific liquidity measure in order to understand whether it it has "signal value" for $BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1697059132283539942) 2023-08-31T01:30Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "While the technical vs. fundamental analysis debate rages in TradFi assets such as Equities #crypto comes along with onchain data and elegantly synthesizes both in real-time (blocks)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1698590396228702449) 2023-09-04T06:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Can the story with US #Stablecoins be any more clear The market has spoken -- Stables have product market fit especially for the less global citizenry (mainly EM) while extending dollar dominance at the very moment the globe is fracturing 1/4" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699223764012339282) 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Tether usage spikes in Asia & MENA suggests crypto dollars remain popular in emerging markets which have been hit hard by inflation are less free and have less access to traditional financial channels. Great data from @flipsidecrypto 2/4" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699223766742786080) 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "South & Central America🔥 👉Latam citizens received $562B in digital currency value from 2021-22 👉El Salvador torching critics with a successful #Bitcoin-oriented econ policy 👉The front-runner in Argentina's presidential race CB skeptic Javier Milei advocates $BTC 3/4" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699223769578176703) 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "There is no valid reason in a liberal Western democracy for a retail #CBDC if the private sector has already solved the issues that Central Banks claim to be concerned about #stablecoins" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699241004988002645) 2023-09-06T02:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "The winds of change - #Bitcoin (and other crypto) gets fair accounting treatment. This is an important adoption catalyst. Corporates will now be able to assess $BTC on its merits as a store of value debasement hedge w/o a punitive accounting rule" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699569230587564435) 2023-09-06T23:44Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Is anyone else noticing that nation-states are now openly investing in #Bitcoin mining operations Probably nothing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1699971420795830409) 2023-09-08T02:22Z 51.7K followers, 68K engagements "@Paul04Trader positive. Its helping to decentralize mining further while shining a bright light on the benefits of Mining for grid stabilization decarbonization (if you believe in the CC hysteria) etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1699974069867978781) 2023-09-08T02:32Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "And although US Liquidity index is higher recently its simply whipping around in a sideways range & therefore signals are basically noise unless there is a meaningful push higher which would likely only come with a policy change from the Fed. Not likely in ST 5/8" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1701814546745471194) 2023-09-13T04:26Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Meanwhile the global liquidity contraction (M2 & CB Bal Sheets) has slowed but is still deeply negative. Until this reverses Bitcoin is unlikely to go higher. Likely lower. 6/8" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1701814549786333208) 2023-09-13T04:26Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "The #Bitcoin energy narrative is flipping A new note out this morning on the Bloomberg Terminal looks at the rapid rise of sustainable energy sources in $BTC mining 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702232759866163351) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 51.7K followers, 231.3K engagements "@CambridgeAltFinrefin recently revised its [----] estimate of electricity consumption from [----] terawatt-hours (TWh) from [-----] TWh after Coin Metrics produced a more accurate assessment of the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) machines used in the mining process" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232768518975700) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Further enhancements by @DSBatten a climate-tech VC address deficiencies in the Cambridge model which exclude new sustainable energy sources such as off-grid power and flared gas and the massive geographical shift to less fossil fuel-intensive grids of the past 3yrs" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232771052425356) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "👉Since China's mining ban in mid-2021 when emissions peaked at [----] megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions have declined 37.5% 👉suggesting the concern about Bitcoin's carbon footprint are being overstated" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232776504930760) 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sustainable Energy Sources Rise 50% 👉Falling emissions plus a dramatically rising hash rate can only mean one thing; Bitcoin mining is consuming more sustainable energy in its mix" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232779294183548) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "While a significant % of mining occurs privately and off-grid estimating energy use remains an imperfect science. Its also an incredibly fast moving industry. That said @DSBatten modelling appears more accurate vs Cambridge. He has Sustainable energy source 53% and" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232782070796328) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, 64.8K engagements "The chart shows how geographical dispersion caused by China's mining ban catalyzed a push toward renewables. Since mid-2021 renewable-energy use (gray) has trended higher as total emissions (blue) have trended lower or moved sideways" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232785094922605) 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With energy accounting for about 50% of miners' costs the industry's shift to sustainables could impact global energy dynamics" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232787972227519) 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As we noted previously growing interest in Bitcoin mining by nation states reflects miners' ability to monetize stranded and excess energy (mainly from renewable and nuclear sources) while helping to balance and modernize power grids" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232790480326940) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, 59.1K engagements "What's becoming even more apparent is that the phasing out coal for wind and solar usually requires subsidies and involves suboptimal payoffs early in the life cycles of power plants. As a source of income based on excess power Bitcoin mining can support this transition" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1702232796029407663) 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Noting some improvement in US Liquidity conditions; [--]. US Financial Liquidity index has flipped to positive [--]. Reverse Repos being drained $400b in a month [--]. Treasury Volatility Index at lows for the year While ex-China CBs are still in tightening mode under the hood there is less stress in the most important asset class US treasuries i.e. the collateral of the global financial system. Too early to be meaningful regime change as it continues to trade in a sideways range. However it is interesting to see how the central planners may be engineering an exit from the aggressively tightening" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1703918662191907101) 2023-09-18T23:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "A new report has dropped on the Bloomberg @TheTerminal this morning - a further examination of this symbiosis between #Bitcoin mining and the global #EnergyTransition 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462103959191620) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Explainer: Carbon intensity is a measure of how clean our electricity is. It refers to how many grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) are released to produce a kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity. In TradFi companies are evaluated by their emissions or carbon intensity" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462111567675848) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 27.5K followers, [---] engagements "According to @DSBatten open source model sustainable energy for Bitcoin mining are 50%. This % had been rising since inception but kicked a gear higher when China banned mining in May-21 knocking out several fossil fuel-powered operations (crackdown in Kazakhstan also helped)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462114306539958) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "And this is where the rubber meets the road -- Bitcoin as a global monetary network is scaling while its carbon impact declines. Few industries can claim this achievement (zoom in to inspect the table as it has stacks of data)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462129850708078) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Summary 👉While network growth may be slowing rel to prev 5Y periods it remains robust. Most KPI's 5Y CAGRs are in double digits. 👉And if Metcalfes law network effects holds each new adopter and interconnection made has an exponential (not linear) impact on the network value" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462132530790646) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Bottom Line: If the network scales to hundreds of millions of users the impact on global carbon emissions will be minimal and the technology itself is likely to play a pivotal role in the transition away from fossil fuels" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1704462134737096934) 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "#Bitcoin Onchain Update 🟢HODLers All time highs 🟢Transactions All time highs 🟢Active Entities in 85% percentile of last 5Yrs 🟠Value $ moving down 30% in 12mths 🔴Median Value $7.72 - lowest since [----] Blockspace activity way UP but economic value is through the floor" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1705006255239307390) 2023-09-21T23:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In hindsight #BlackRock's massive #Bitcoin spot ETF play shouldn't have been that surprising. Along with other behemoths (Vanguard StateStreet) who espouse #ESG-driven investing principles they started scooping up public mining stock back in [----] ESG Institutionalization🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706559757845487974) 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, 24.7K engagements "BlackRock began investing in Marathon Digital the second-largest publicly traded miner three years ago when hostility to mining was fever pitched -- perhaps due to the industry's heavy reliance on fossil fuels at the time (or for other reasons.)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706559760387244277) 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "But given the activist tendencies of these big asset managers it's remains unclear if their intentions toward Bitcoin miners will be passive in nature" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706559785796329715) 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "According to @hashindex public miners are 28% of #Bitcoin's global hashrate. The industry is evolving with public co's and nation-states now integrally involved. This presents opportunities & challenges to the network. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706941452159471772) 2023-09-27T07:58Z 10.2K followers, 16.9K engagements "Small-scale miners remain critical to keeping the industry decentralized and more anti-fragile. But for some countries mining is outlawed or economically unfeasible. An interesting report from @coingecko estimates household electricity costs for mining [--] $BTC 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706941454940291292) 2023-09-27T07:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "But even where electricity prices are dirt cheap there are risks of overloading fragile energy grids. Not to mention these countries are some of the most politically unstable countries on earth. 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706941460489383963) 2023-09-27T07:58Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "What is most striking from this report is that for the West the promise of cheap energy from renewables has not materialized. As more renewables are added prices. In Australia 32% of energy is sourced from renewables & the divergence btwn energy prices and CPI widens😕" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1706941463219900807) 2023-09-27T07:58Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements "It looks like we are about to see a substantial uptick in volatility across all markets given where yields USD & global M2 are heading. Despite what lies ahead there has been a big shift in the volatility profiles of global assets vs. #Bitcoin over the past years. 👀🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707299575852343744) 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Since [----] the only assets that have seen their volatility profile decline have been hard assets #Bitcoin & #Gold. Everything else has become more volatile; Global FI 53% Global #Equity 33% #Bitcoin 52% #Gold 16%" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707299579497263291) 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Given that $btc volatility is near the bottom of the range plus a deteriorating macro environment; US dollar 10Y Treasury Yield Global M2 ***inverted the USD & Yields to visualize the correlation*** Its diff to see how $BTC (& all risk assets) can hold up with this setup" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707299586614989279) 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "But regardless of the next several months from an asset allocation standpoint what really matters is if #Bitcoin can add value as a risk diversifier & improve risk-adjusted returns" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707299590402449693) 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Comparing risk-adjusted returns (Sortino) during the last two bear mkts further illustrates changing asset-allocation dynamics. In [----] BTC ranked bottom vs. [----] it ranked FI & some equity mkts. BTC was down 70% but it actually outperformed other assets on risk adj basis👀" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707299594357682284) 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Few projects are showing this kind of price action in crypto. YTD @MakerDAO is up in relative and absolute terms. It may have something to do withfeesissuance & credible governance efforts. All of which are sorely lacking in the space if insto's are to take it seriously 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707532717620167068) 2023-09-28T23:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "In our estimation there are around [---] fee earning protocols in the crypto ecosystem vs over 1000+. Once you account for their issuance 25% of them are "profitable" 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707532729162887666) 2023-09-28T23:08Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "The reality is that only a few dApps have a sustainable business model generate fees are not being constantly diluted by insane issuance schedules (sub-optimal tokenomics) and/or being dumped on by insiders who may or may not be disregarding vesting schedules. 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1707532732639990255) 2023-09-28T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The #crypto ecosystem of smart contract platforms witnessed a dip in active addresses in 3Q23 of -3% vs 2Q23. Since the bull mkt peak in [----] more than 1M active addresses have entered and remained in the ecosystem despite prices down 50-90% for these #blockchain's . #ethereum #solana" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709038657393565746) 2023-10-03T02:52Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Q3 Crypto Ecosystem (Smart Contract Platforms / PoS) Report Card Overview - Part 1🧵 YoY Performance Highlights 👉Market Cap +6% 👉Active Addresses up 1m or +25% 👉Qtrly Revenues +82.9% 👉Qtrly Profitability improves from -$2.28b to -$0.42b 👉However Capital & Activity Vols" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447282620514725) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Q3 vs Q2 [----] Performance Highlights 👉Mkt Cap down 12% 👉Core adoption metrics all down after the Q2 meme coin related surge 👉Active Addresses have outperformed in being less price sensitive down 2.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447285527261258) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Overall drawdown from peak remains around -70%. Below the surface there has been a large divergence in 12mth price performance; 👉ETH L1 +25% 👉ETH L2s +20% 👉Alt-L1s -29% ETH ecosystem mkt cap dominanceat 72%" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447288610037832) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "👉The rise in L2s has meant that the Ethereum network has started to regain market share from the Alt-L1 peers. 👉In the past year Active Address L2 growth outpaced Alt-L1's by 2x (albeit from a lower base)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447294192660710) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Overall Alt-L1s make up 80% of Active Addresses but their growth is slowing while L2s is increasing" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447296709263495) 2023-10-04T05:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Still the majority of transactions done on Alt-L1s. Unclear how much are legit txs we know that despite this high tx throughput and volume few Alt-L1s have positive earnings. We put this down in most cases to capacity oversupply sub-optimal product mkt fit & tokenomic models" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447300408561700) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Below is a breakdown of how effective the Alt-L1s are in converting transactions and active addresses into fee revenue. Fees to Active Address Ratio 👉ETH L1 26x 👏👏 👉ETH L2s 9x 👉Alt-L1s 2.3x 🤔 Fees to Transactions 👉ETH L1 8.4x 👏👏 👉ETH L2s [----] 👉Alt-L1s 0.3x 🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709447302791016739) 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Below is analysis of the Fee Conversion Rates for active users and transactions for smart contract/PoS #crypto #blockchains. We know adoption metrics like active addresses fees & transactions are critical for modelling asset prices. However in isolation these metrics can be misleading. How do the Fee Conversion Rate's work The Fee conversion rate explains how much a network collects for the activity level from transactions addresses. For simplicity we segment the entire mkt into [--] categories; #Ethereum L1 Ethereum L2s Alternative L1s (#Solana #Cosmos #Avalanche #Fantom etc etc etc) Results:" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1709827484026601760) 2023-10-05T07:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Treasury volatility (MOVE index) is on the rise with the surge in yields. Every time volatility on USTs exceeds [--] std devs mkts have tanked. Its also been the point when the Fed historically has had to respond. USTs are the primary collateral for the fiat system. #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1710060493992309085) 2023-10-05T22:32Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "📊 According to data from @DefiLlama there are roughly [---] smart contract/PoS #blockchains. Astonishingly 88% of all transaction fees over the past year came from just [--] chains. This leaves the remainder to compete for a mere 12% with $ETH L2s increasing their share at a rapid rate. 🔗 #Ethereum L1 dominates with a 57% share while #Tron claims 31%. Concerns about the authenticity of Tron's activity are worthy of attention; Key challenges for most smart contract/PoS blockchains include: [--] Excess blockspace availability [--] Highly inflationary supply schedules [--] Unreported supply indications" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1710521905323954306) 2023-10-07T05:06Z 10.2K followers, 28K engagements "Isn't this interesting.our #Bitcoin trend model pops off a bullish signal at a time when USTs are cratering🤔 For #technicalanlysis buffs we know trend models are great unless we are in the chop of a sideways trading range which we have been in since Q2. So for now this signal is noise. However the $31000 resistance remains a crystal clear threshold that once broken would ignite the bull cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711155176856592538) 2023-10-08T23:02Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "In the hyper-competitive world of smart contract #blockchains fee income is a critical driver for asset prices. Currently 60% of fees are derived from the #Ethereum L1 & L2's but in terms of addresses & Txs the alternative L1s have a much higher share of "activity" 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557136873119828) 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Previously we introduced a novel way to assess financial strength the "Fee-conversion rate" i.e. fees per unit of activity (Tx or address) in the same way as average revenue per user (ARPU) is used for online software telco businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557139465207874) 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "*Note: Token prices impact Fee metrics as fees are paid in the native token. Firstly we need to ascertain if fees have risen independent of just prices rallying. Despite lousy volumes fees prices in the past 12mths" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557142505988436) 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Near-frictionless transaction costs and faster speeds are a prerequisite for global blockchain adoption but it's not clear how some L1s w/ chronically low fee-conversion rates will be able to maintain sufficient network security even when/if demand reaccelerates in [----] beyond" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557155810390483) 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "The lack of meaningful traction in the alternative L1 sector (ex Tron) may be explained by a general bear mkt malaise. But it does seem as though the $ETH ecosystem is pulling away from the pack" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557158075294136) 2023-10-10T01:40Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements "Further clarity will come when we look into the supply and tokenomics models for these L1s in the coming days/weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711557160344461475) 2023-10-10T01:40Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "While #Bitcoin is-14% in Q3 it remains the best performing asset YTD62%. Meanwhile the premium safe asset class US Long bond-13% in Q3 &-11% YTD. Extending losses for the second year in a row. Is the reshuffling in global asset volatility a signal in the noise 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711637770740052259) 2023-10-10T07:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Meanwhile asset allocators who only care about risk adjusted returns are observing yet another year in which $BTC is outperforming most global assets. YTD Bitcoin has the #2 best Sortino Ratio 3Q23 Bitcoin comes out ahead of bonds on Sortino Ratio despite -14%" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711637773290176859) 2023-10-10T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Slowly building out technical breadth measures for the #Crypto market. Below is the first version of the equal weight index and Accumulation Advance/Decline Line. Folks familiar with this SPX or NDX Advance/Decline line will appreciate how breadth indicators provide confirmation and divergence signals for markets. Our mkt cap and equal wgt indices consist of the Top [---] crypto assets rebalanced every quarter. There is still some jumps and distortions in the data which we are working on. Unfortunately these wont be available on the Terminal (for now) but we will feature these new indicators in" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1711969151747764297) 2023-10-11T04:57Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "This was a poor year for most assets with the SPX which has rarely been down YoY since CBs unleashed QE in [----] fall 6.2%. So Bitcoin was not alone in having a poor year. Nevertheless for the unit of risk equities and Bonds did much better" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1712234903662993835) 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "So what happened in the next bear market In [----] we saw extreme volatility across the entire financial system complex - no asset was spared. Fixed income - the foundation of every sovereign foundation asset manager and pension was slaughtered" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1712234906456354950) 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "In [----] Bitcoin's Sortino was as bad as it was in [----] but yet it finished middle of the global rankings. Suddenly equities and especially bonds had become far more risky" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1712234909501370541) 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, 12.4K engagements "2022 marks a watershed moment in the story of global asset allocation strategies. Every portfolio model must account for the heightened risk in their perceived safe assets. This requires a complete reshaping of portfolio construction framework" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1712234912831652231) 2023-10-11T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Keep in mind that the surge in interest rates looming recession and the accompanying unemployment can be directly linked to the recent government control and corporate misconduct during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you didn't recognize it then or haven't noticed its effects since you might be susceptible to the latest deception" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1712990836953407538) 2023-10-14T00:36Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "TradFi is driving the growth of real-world assets issued on public #blockchains. More firms will enter soon. Growth is off a low base but it is rising steadily. Demand is also emanating from #EmergingMarkets which is not surprising given Stablecoin adoption @rwa_xyz 🧵1/5" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1713820378366345598) 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tokenization of US money market funds exceeds $600m up from $100m YTD. 2/5" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1713820380992028891) 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Some very conspicuous TradFi name's has issued 50% of these assets @FTI_Global @WisdomTreeFunds 3/5" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1713820383500214395) 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting to see the choice of networks @StellarOrg 4/5" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1713820386163589225) 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Bitcoin's active addresses (AA) have dropped sharply- the most pronounced 1-month fall since mid-2021. While BRC/Ordinals have distorted some onchain metrics this year a dwindling AA typically is not price positive. The divergence between price and AA underscores building market expectations for ETF listings and a liquidity pivot. With the mkt chopping between $25k-$30k everything is noise until we breach the $31k resistance (or $24k support)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1715578643785863350) 2023-10-21T03:59Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "@coindays_org That is absolutely true from structural standpoint. More users will flow to L2. However it has almost nothing to do with short term changes in active addresses in the magnitude we have seen in the past month" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1715638971383124269) 2023-10-21T07:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For half a year this asset's danced between $25k-$31k. More coins have changed hands in this tight range than anywhere else in its price distribution. This is also the longest period of compressed volatility in its history. The next phase in the breakdown of the fiat monetary order is nearly upon us. Gold is also hinting at this. When #Bitcoin breaks $31k its an air pocket to $39k" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1716377062888624289) 2023-10-23T08:52Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements "Watch Tradfi companies who bottom ticked one of the biggest financial market transformations of the past century reverse course in [----]. As Bitcoin eyes the throne as the next global reserve asset pensions and fund managers clutching their "risk-free" US Treasuries are having to relearn the foundational tenets of risk management diversification postion size while being introducedto the inescapable realities of fiat finance. Tokenization of real-world assets account abstraction and the rise of stablecoins are about to take crypto from 5-10 million crypto daily users to [---] million by 2028" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1716908600717885488) 2023-10-24T20:04Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements "What #bitcoin price action has done this week from a technical standpoint is the equivalent of the breakout above $10500 resistance in July [----]. Price has cleared a massive supply overhangthe largest in its history. Whilst there will be pullbacks as we saw in Q3 [----] price is confirming the bull market regime which I called in Dec-2022 based on my liquidity and market structure analysis. https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1599728073099935744s=20 https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1599728073099935744s=20" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1716930768881213863) 2023-10-24T21:32Z 51.7K followers, 91.9K engagements "2022 was the liquidity-driven and much-needed #crypto exorcism [----] was a US state-led attack on the industry - some warranted but certainly not all (OpChokepoint [---] etc) Meanwhile users interacting with proof-of-stake blockchains especially stables and the ongoing experimentation of Web3 continue to rise each year regardless of price action and regulatory vitriol. By the end of [----] daily active users were around 3.89M. In Q3 this number rose to 5.05M up 30%. The 3-year CAGR is 88%. Prices are still 60% from the ATH in [----]. This is the signal amongst the noise" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1717314864081961163) 2023-10-25T22:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ever since inscriptions and Ordinals debuted in Q1 a lingering question has been their contribution to total activity. @glassnode's data reveals they have made up approximately 40% of #Bitcoins total transactions. While art-based NFTs may be the initial prominent use case the potential of a genuinely decentralized and immutable blockchain to serve as a global database and ultimate source of truth could inspire unforeseen applications. With more use cases come increased fees" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1717991210001015030) 2023-10-27T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Public blockchains hold immense potential for empowering global citizens. The $850B private credit market is just the beginning. Currently there are $568M in active loans issued through credit funds on platforms like #Ethereum #Polygon and #Solana. Who's investing Demand primarily stems from equatorial regions specifically emerging markets (EM) with minimal participation from developed markets (DM). Historically private credit was reserved for accredited investors. But now thanks to public blockchains and the rise of stablecoins regions plagued by inflation and starved of yields can tap into" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1719476973360030182) 2023-10-31T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Earlier this year something big happened in #Bitcoin's ascendency to global reserve asset status. US depositors got an all too real taste of what it must be like to live in developing countries with fragile financial systems. In March [----] for the first time #Bitcoin demonstrated its independence from traditional risk assets by passing a banking stress test. Post-GFC we've witnessed several banking crises where a spike in the interbank market rate signalled a complete collapse in trust. During these times such as in [----] and [----] $BTC plummeted alongside all other 'risk' assets. However over" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1719925078941683804) 2023-11-02T03:51Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Bear market/Bull market adoption of #blockchain technology continues unabated. Not having exposure to one of the largest structural trends of the next decade could be costly. [--] million daily #crypto users today is likely to be 100m in less than [--] years. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1720256626568151237) 2023-11-03T01:48Z [----] followers, 50.7K engagements "#Cardano still commands a mkt cap of 75% of #Solana despite only having 16% of the daily users. This trade has more to go. #Solana Technicals: interesting setup with old support acting as new resistance. The $30-$40 level was where a lot of insiders began dumping on retail in the previous bull mkt. 🧵 https://t.co/ofI3o69CC8 #Solana Technicals: interesting setup with old support acting as new resistance. The $30-$40 level was where a lot of insiders began dumping on retail in the previous bull mkt. 🧵 https://t.co/ofI3o69CC8" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1721393694602137677) 2023-11-06T05:06Z 26.4K followers, [----] engagements "Despite 100% rally in [----] so far its been firm hands. #Bitcoin addresses that have bought twice and not sold hits new ATH 844k. This amounts to over 3m BTC or 16% of circulating supply. HODLers will make ETF investors pay up. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1721399814951432573) 2023-11-06T05:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As the #crypto asset class heads towards $8T-$10T this cycle I expect to see the proliferation of systematic and factor-based strategies. Watch for funds with proven out-of-sample returns and [--] cycles under their belt to go from sub-$25m to $500m-$1b AUM. h/t @Kallerhoff" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1724252272232747310) 2023-11-14T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Those that believe that recent price action is down to the ETF news are delusional. By Q1 #Bitcoin was sending the clearest of signals that the very nature of asset allocation was changing. Its just that most weren't paying attention" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1724257020247785545) 2023-11-14T02:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In July -- $39000 by November was the call. Need some Vivek/RFK Jnr magic to get it there. Help me out @PeterMcCormack" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1725396768991682947) 2023-11-17T06:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Bitcoin is already a reserve asset at the sovereign level. Several energy-rich nation-states have invested hundreds of millions into facilities with projected investments of $1b-$2b & 2000MW coming online in the couple of years. These countries have publicly stated that Bitcoin mining is a strategic energy initiative. If that is true then they are already holding $BTC on their balance sheet. The first of the sovereigns have arrived" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1726142416623960263) 2023-11-19T07:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its all linked -- Central Bank liquidity- Global M2- Bitcoin Price- Crypto Prices- Crypto Users The liquidity cycle bottomed in Q4 [----] as did users of smart contract blockchains. However the liquidity cycle only impacts the rate-of-change of adoption. Consistently blockchain adoption increases YoY irrespective of asset prices. Blockchain technology is in a structural uptrend that will last for many years and we are at the start of the next cyclical upswing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1726337796963749973) 2023-11-19T20:32Z 51.7K followers, 212.6K engagements "Then when everyone says "No way" they will quietly get you long because they care not for what the talking heads and mkt pundits say" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1726728898589958147) 2023-11-20T22:27Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements "focus on the winning trades total PnL vs Losing trades PnL ie what is the SIZE of the wins vs. losses. The count is less important. This is the performance of wins/losses over the bear mkt [----] to [----]. Eventhough there was an aggregate loss the average win is 3x the avg loss" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1726728902599692572) 2023-11-20T22:27Z 40.1K followers, [---] engagements "In [----] more protocols will enjoy reward rates above treasuries and more than the current [--] chains will turn deflationary. #Ethereum" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1729117665443360768) 2023-11-27T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite the regulatory onslaught from US authorities staking demand in [----] has had a robust year. The top [--] staked assets increased the no. of staking wallets by 69% on average. Only one network had negative growth (understandably)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1729117667913871369) 2023-11-27T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The wonderful thing about a new start is re-imagining your product with a fresh perspective. The #Bitcoin Fundamentals dashboard is back; in the next week I will be adding new data (not just onchain) valuation metrics and insights. Other L1s will follow in 1-2 months. LFG" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1729738532187513251) 2023-11-29T05:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One of these #Bitcoin bear markets is not like the other. Accumulation Address (bought twice and never sold) [----] -20% [----] +60% Conviction" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1730097855925559508) 2023-11-30T05:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My first report for @RealVision has dropped. Its a deep dive on #crypto adoption and what that means for asset values. One insight from the report: Several key drivers are coalescing behind the re-acceleration of blockchain adoption as the technology steadily embeds itself into the fabric of our digital era. The role AI will play in the future of blockchain will be a major swing factor in that adoption arc. @RaoulGMI and team have built an awesome product at RV and after a decade as a subscriber (the longest financial subscription service I have ever owned) I am truly stoked to now be a" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1730347040901865556) 2023-11-30T22:04Z [----] followers, 52K engagements "Given its #Bitcoin "Prediction" season I thought I would re-share my July cycle analysis (when $BTC was at $29000) and a quick thought around modelling in general as this bull market heats up Cycle Analysis: [--]. First stop was $39000 by November 2023✅ [--]. Second stop was $92000 (moderate) to $170000 (bullish) by Q4 [----] - TBC I constructed this based on pure price cycle behaviour. I have also published a bit of price modelling based on adoption metrics which have a moderately high explanatory power with price. While that informs my outlook I always place price at the centre of #blockchain asset" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1731799193348694301) 2023-12-04T22:14Z [----] followers, 24.3K engagements "Bitcoin's ESG attributes" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1731865014842093984) 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin as a safe haven asset alternative to Bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1731865017694449935) 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "That's enough for now sometimes you have to DYOR" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1731865020231995724) 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Mihalbig I have never argued the entire fleet of trucks will be replaced. It's at the margins" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1731988042091831691) 2023-12-05T10:45Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements "A breakdown of the final section of the recent report published to @RealVision Crypto Pro subscribers -- "Scaling the Heights: A Roadmap to [---] Million Daily Crypto Users" It's a 🧵with plenty of charts. Let's dive in. #crypto #blockchain #ethereum #solana" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1732644030188818532) 2023-12-07T06:11Z [----] followers, 29.8K engagements "Thesis: After a period dominated by innovators/early adopters the structural uptrend in blockchain users is on the verge of the next major inflection point. The convergence of self-reinforcing tech will address bottlenecks/UX issues driving it to mainstream for the 1st time" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1732644033175097467) 2023-12-07T06:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#Bitcoin is entering Belief / Denial zone. This is when 25-30% pullbacks can start appearing regularly. Make no mistake the compulsion to sell will inflict itself on every holder. However onchain we can see based on metrics like illiquid supply/long-term holders etc that this bull market started from a much higher base level of conviction than ever before. This has a lot to do with a far more informed population. There has been an explosion in the study and analysis of central banking liquidity and macro analysis. Thanks to the contributions of many great thinkers and educators" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732901731233824965) 2023-12-07T23:15Z 51.7K followers, 46K engagements "@sassal0x I noticed when I saw you in Sydney. Keep it up mate" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1733202199004741680) 2023-12-08T19:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Liquidity backdrop still constructive #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1734544222244721118) 2023-12-12T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ellymelly Income tax regime similar to Singapore 12-15% to reward hard work again and defund bloated corrupt tyrannical govt" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1735223447935222236) 2023-12-14T09:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "While #altcoins are breaking out from their basing pattern it is still a #Bitcoin dominant market. Yet the shift towards #Altseason feels imminent. Considering the significant capital flows expected from $BTC ETFs next year maybe it takes longer this cycle. Usually altseason hits within 1-1.5 years from the cycle low which is ard Q2 [----]. While human behaviour remains a constant with the rotation fueled by $BTC profits FOMO and greed we will see the emergence of some clear long term winners in this cycle; Alt-L1s L2s and dApps with product market fit and growing adoption. #Blockchain adoption" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1735238828137541974) 2023-12-14T10:02Z 10.2K followers, 10.8K engagements "Its not even Altseason and $COIN has started to outperform $BTC. There is resistance from $152-$225 as disgruntled bagholders from the IPO who didnt dump at capitulation lows get out. They will be replaced by new set of holders who can see the tokenization wave coming and realize how value accretive their L2 #Base is to the business. #projectdiamond" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1735495576870113527) 2023-12-15T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its not even Altseason and $COIN has started to outperform $BTC. There is resistance from $152-$225 as disgruntled bagholders from the IPO get out. They will be replaced by new set of holders who can see the tokenization wave coming and realize how value accretive their L2 #Base is to the business. #projectdiamond" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1735502197570552035) 2023-12-15T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The perfect parallel for today's #crypto market The US stock market of the early 1900s. This unique environment offers abundant alpha-generating opportunities unmatched in any other asset class. But this window will exist only for a few years before it is arbitraged away. At the turn of the century the US economy was emerging as the global economic superpower and capital poured in. The network state/crypto ecosystem today is on the ascendency and ETFs will trigger a massive inflow of capital spanning decades. In the pre-1933 & [----] Securities Act era the US stock market operated in a loose" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1736890253804523835) 2023-12-18T23:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Great discussion @carri_cee thank you for the opportunity to come on your show and nerd out on #Bitcoin data" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1736891184713539819) 2023-12-18T23:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Tech is on track to be 25% of total global equity market by the end of [----]. That's a doubling in the past decade. #Crypto is on track to be 20% of Tech's mkt cap by [----]. That's a 5x in [--] years. I don't see why Tech & Crypto shouldn't've be the biggest overweight in portfolio's at least for the next 1-2 years until the liquidity cycle turns" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1740505230935224767) 2023-12-28T22:49Z 21.8K followers, [----] engagements "@ryanjohnsonhunt perhaps the easiest way to play it is the uranium equities ETF URA" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1741186283517665671) 2023-12-30T19:55Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements "Interested in #Bitcoin and #crypto market analysis macro technical analysis sprinkled with a touch of liberty-minded anti-authoritarian perspectives Starting today over the next [--] days I'll be writing [--] Atomic Essays. You can follow my Social Blog on @typeshare_co: First one out today: [--] Lessons For Applying Technical Analysis To Your Investment Framework" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1742298235107197077) 2024-01-02T21:34Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Interested in #Bitcoin and #crypto market analysis macro technical analysis sprinkled with a touch of liberty-minded anti-authoritarian perspectives Starting today over the next [--] days I'll be writing [--] Atomic Essays. You can follow my Social Blog on @typeshare_co: First one out today: [--] Lessons For Applying Technical Analysis To Your Investment Framework" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1742305409724227683) 2024-01-02T22:02Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "While the ETFs are undoubtedly a massively bullish catalyst for #Bitcoin one of my global liquidity indicators has reached levels correlated with the assets best return periods. // Thread //" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1742334715338596568) 2024-01-02T23:59Z 10.2K followers, 12.7K engagements "Regardless of location we're all facing a minimum 9% hurdle rate due to fiat currency debasement just to maintain our financial status quo. In Australia for example the debasement rate averages 11.5% resulting in the money supply doubling every [---] years. I suspect only 3-4% of the global population truly understands what this chart means. However there is now an awakening as people become educated about the fiat credit monetary order. The inflows into #Bitcoin will be massive. In the US 75M baby boomers are holding an estimated $80T in assets (h/t @BitPaine). As Bitcoin ETFs gain approval a" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1742420137263984987) 2024-01-03T05:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "@NathanWrites There was a massive increase in Money supply in 2020/21 from the deficit spending and QE for the covid insanity. But the 11% is the annual average from 1969" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742505692760829981) 2024-01-03T11:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "2022 was supposed to be another R.I.P. year for public blockchains. The media and fiat experts said so. However the failure to understand the difference between a mania and the global adoption of a technology whose time has come is what provides the alpha for early investors. Here are [--] fundamental demand-side metrics that explain the health of the crypto ecosystem and that critics should use to check themselves. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1743787861890281574) 2024-01-07T00:13Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "1. Active Addresses #Bitcoin After a slowing adoption #Bitcoin active address count at 840k is bottoming and will hit news ATHs in 2yrs. Investment in the network from nation states in mining (e.g. UAE Bahrain) legal tender authorisation (Argentina El Salvador) & ETF inflows all create massive 2nd order effects" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1743787864339660899) 2024-01-07T00:13Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "The global #ESG movement is a farce. In [----] #Bitcoin's obvious ESG credentials will become widely accepted as the ESG high priests at #Blackrock anoint the market with their ETF. And in a weird turn of events Bitcoin may allow the ESG grift to continue. Let me explain. TradFi & MSM had a decade to recognize the universal and unparalleled benefits that #Bitcoin brings to the world via the S & G pillars of ESG. It should have been recognized as the single best ESG investment at least [--] years ago when data on the increasing use of sustainable energy and methane mitigation became well known" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1744316990427390292) 2024-01-08T11:15Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "What will happen when Sustainable investing funds realise #Bitcoin is the single best #ESG investment on the planet Bitcoin mining facilities capturing methane from landfill and flared gas are offseting 7% of the total emissions and this is rising fast. If this tech is scaled globally (h/t @DSBatten) it's conceivable that total emissions which have been stagnant for [--] years fall dramatically even as global adoption continues its exponential rise. $30T in 'sustainable' fund assets . what say you" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1744541540163506534) 2024-01-09T02:08Z 10.2K followers, 17.9K engagements "Great can we move on now please. It's not as if #CBDCs attacks on privacy and the persistent march of authoritarian Western governments are going to stop because we got our precious #bitcoin ETF listing. If anything it's the perfect distraction" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1745202967291318686) 2024-01-10T21:56Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "#ElSalvador and #Argentina have set a precedent and now in a year where over half the world's population votes what's the chance by the end of it we have a few more sovereign #Bitcoin adopters It's going to get wild. So we got in way before BlackRock 🤷🏻♂ So we got in way before BlackRock 🤷🏻♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1745315520159842530) 2024-01-11T05:23Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Now the ETF is approved-who is going to be the first sovereign I have no edge here but it's interesting that Qatar is appearing in the betting market. Neighbours UAE & Oman have earmarked #Bitcoin mining as a strategic industry investing billions with private co's to mine with excess energy. Let the sovereign games begin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1745394646677856421) 2024-01-11T10:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Now the ETF is approved-who is going to be the first sovereign I have no edge here but it's interesting that Qatar is appearing in the betting market. Neighbours UAE & Oman have earmarked #Bitcoin mining as a strategic industry investing billions with private co's to mine it with their excess energy. Let the sovereign games begin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1745398915942539379) 2024-01-11T10:55Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "My #Bitcoin trend model produced a Long Exit today. It is easy to build a narrative as to why: [--]. On-chain activity data weak vs Price [--]. Network profitability metrics are high [--]. Extreme silliness exhibited with derivatives positioning/leverage leading into the ETF launch Nothing overly concerning given global liquidity & the bitcoin cycle. Low $40k provides a decent entry point for non-systematic/momentum investors. The following report for @RealVision will be a deep dive into #Bitcoin fundamentals macro and technicals" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747040501394768279) 2024-01-15T23:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "If anyone is interested in why the media continues to push falsehoods about #bitcoin mining's environmental impact then besides their confirmation bias and (negative) agenda it stems from their reliance on Cambridge's model which they admit is not reflective of reality but yet are reluctant to update/fix. @DSBatten brings the 🔥with this open letter to CCAF (Cambridge Cente for Alternative Finance) An open letter to CCAF (Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance) about your Bitcoin mining models Dear CCAF Would you predict an election result by using polling data from [--] years ago You know" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747078938365767910) 2024-01-16T02:10Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "Q: What should one do when Global Money Supply breaks to new all-time highs A: Ignore it because Keynsians tell us aggregate demand is all that matters B: Thank our Fiat Central Planners for the gift of rising Asset prices C: Upon reviewing the real rates of return for assets thank god for #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747091732142125120) 2024-01-16T03:01Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "It never ceases to amaze me how the media refuse to do the work on #Bitcoin . It speaks to a deep-seated disdain for free markets classical Western liberal ideals and their state worship. "The promoted benefits of crypto such as bitcoin have largely turned out to be false." Let's break down the "analysis" from @Johnkehoe23 @FinancialReview OPINION: Bitcoin will turn out to be a sideshow whose only role is to pave the way for state-backed digital money and tokenisation. https://t.co/0qbvo5f7ZY OPINION: Bitcoin will turn out to be a sideshow whose only role is to pave the way for state-backed" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759139798094063) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, 11K engagements "#1 "Bitcoin was marketed as an inflation hedge. But its price crashed from about $US68000 to $US16000 during the biggest inflation shock in [--] years. It was trading this week at around $US43000."" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759145544282364) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Please learn the difference between price and monetary inflation. In respect to price inflation every asset experienced negative returns during the [----] inflation scare. Bonds had their worst year since [----]. They were supposed to be safe allocation" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759149960868214) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "The media never talks about risk adjusted volatility because then they would reveal a greater than 12-year-old understanding of markets and the truth about volatility. [----] was much worse for other assets less "volatile" than $BTC. Sortino/Sharpe ratios reveal this" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759157841907883) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "@FinancialReview thinks you are daytraders. Zoom out and recognise whats happening. The far right column is US Money supply. Its grown by 223%. Thats your real inflation rate. CPI is a joke that Keynesians policy makers want us to swallow so we cant see the theft and don't notice lower real wages & living standards" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759162069786744) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Everything in red has underperformed the money supply (monetary inflation) except US stocks Tech and Gold. $BTC is cursed by a short history but so far is nailing everything else. This is the actual (real) asset returns once monetary inflation is deducted from nominal returns. This is how your adviser should quote or compare assets. But they don't because umm fees" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759166008307997) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "the article goes on with some real doozies. Like "Bitcoin was supposed to diversify peoples investment portfolios. But its price has been highly correlated to other risk-based assets chiefly listed equities." "Bitcoin was trumpeted as a stable store of wealth. Its turned out to be massively volatile."" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759170210914705) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements ""Bitcoin was supposed to be a medium of exchange. It isnt except for a very limited number of enthusiasts." ""A digital US dollar or Aussie dollar backed by the central bank will have much more investor trust than risky private crypto assets."" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1747759173541167570) 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "State run media in China and their views on #Bitcoin. If the global citizenry freely choose a non state money "we are all going to die". Good thing our media politicians and elites believe in free markets capitalism civil liberties. Oh wait" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1748143499810373686) 2024-01-19T00:41Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "@SamLyman33 The 'free-banking era' strawman argument. Oh you mean the era of the greatest economic growth development and constant price deflation. Yes that one" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1748543409793482882) 2024-01-20T03:10Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "#Bitcoin is stuck with the Dollar Chart: $BTC vs $DXY (inverted) Once the $DXY breaks 99.5-101 there is little support until the low 90's. $BTC would likely reach new ATHs in that scenario" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1749768806665445465) 2024-01-23T12:19Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements "@RaoulGMI Attia's lost me once he started suggesting statins for young ppl. His view on cholesterol and his worship of pharma are red flags" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1749875825032429676) 2024-01-23T19:24Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin's primary use case as it stands today is a store-of-value asset. We can see that in the onchain data. The number of wallets long-term holders and accumulation addresses (bought twice and never sold) continue to hit new all-time highs" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1750009211801800727) 2024-01-24T04:14Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Total addresses is now 51M which equates to approx. 300M ppl or 2.5% of the global pop" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1750009214888820824) 2024-01-24T04:14Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements "Fiat money - Cantillion Effect - Peverse Incentives - Centralization - Garbage Science #DeSci" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1750391314901086594) 2024-01-25T05:33Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "The distribution phase for #Bitcoin appears to have commenced. This is not the end of the bull market but rather the transition in the cycle where long-term holders begin moving coins into new hands" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1750602812168577362) 2024-01-25T19:33Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements ""#Bitcoin is too volatile" - says privileged westerner" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1752186318602547467) 2024-01-30T04:25Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Zoom out #bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1752480479218123176) 2024-01-30T23:54Z 10.3K followers, 21.1K engagements "#Blockchain adoption is exceeding my projections. According to @artemis__xyz smart contract blockchain daily active users (DAU) averaged 6.9m in Jan up from 5.5m in Sep-23. 🚀25% growth in [--] months 🚀 In my report for @RealVision in Nov-23 I projected DAUs would hit 6.9m by April/May & 11m by Dec-24. In my Metcalfe's law-driven valn approach as more users enter the Web3 asset prices will naturally increase. From the report: "By [----] the model projects market capitalization could rise to $1.6$2 trillion up from the current $400 billion. Upon reaching [---] million users by [----] the asset class" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1752590453818692038) 2024-01-31T07:11Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "The latest #Bitcoin report dropped for @realvision subscribers today. It breaks down the cycle sentiment and price action. One of the key takeaways in the report was for the RIAs Boomers and Bitcoin first-timers who loaded up on ETFs only to get immediately smacked with a 20% sell-off. From the report; "If there is one certainty in markets when leverage accumulates this quickly and when positioning is as one-sided as it was here the market inevitably destroys that leverage in fairly short order." It's essential when analysing Bitcoin to look at positioning especially in the derivatives market" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1752949095734665321) 2024-02-01T06:56Z 10.3K followers, 12.7K engagements "Blockchains are here to stay. A 1% #Ethereum allocation has added an annualised 90bps to a US equities portfolio over past 6yrs (and improved Sharpe ratio). In time #Ethereum and other alts will be included in the "Digital Assets" sliver of multi-asset portfolios. The more sophisticated managers will create two buckets; [--]. #Bitcoin [--]. Digital Assets And optimise the weights accordingly. #crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1753210683368571087) 2024-02-02T00:16Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Over the past decade all assets have become more volatile as #Bitcoin's volatility declines. If holding other assets is becoming 'riskier' then one needs to be compensated for that higher volatility. A cursory look at the sharpe ratios tell us that this is not the case. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1753223694531367343) 2024-02-02T01:07Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "@Ausproperty95 Law of diminishing returns. Hence mass migrant influx to keep nominal GDP growth positive as Real GDP goes deeply negative" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1755572568545960224) 2024-02-08T12:41Z 10.3K followers, [---] engagements "🚀Why this #Bitcoin rally has the potential to reach prev ATH pre-halving; [--]. All the extreme leverage and positioning from Q4 has been cleansed (for now). Options OI is down 40% and Futures funding rates are still positive but less exuberant [--]. ETFs continue to outpace supply by at least 2:1 and the halving is still months away [--]. Only 10% of the volume moved at prices above the current level. If $BTC breaches $48.2k there is scant overhead resistance. 🍿🍿🍿" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1756408263078551715) 2024-02-10T20:02Z 10.5K followers, 39.2K engagements "Daily active users engaging with smart contract #blockchains are breaking out to new ATHs. This is bullish for prices but what's driving the surging adoption And which networks are benefiting the most The first report is dropping at @RealVision later this week. #Crypto #Ethereum #Solana #NEARProtocol @artemis__xyz" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1756626474893992376) 2024-02-11T10:29Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "#Bitcoin above $50000. The newsrooms at @nytimes @WSJbusiness @crypto @business @BBGIntelligence" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1757157424489025576) 2024-02-12T21:39Z 29.6K followers, 61.1K engagements "CENTRAL BANKS SAY THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD: This is Adrian Orr Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (@ReserveBankofNZ) #Bitcoin @Lawblock21 @saifedean "It's a great business to be in Central Banking where you print money and people believe it" - Adrian Orr @ReserveBankofNZ #Bitcoin https://t.co/K4LhKlxaws @Lawblock21 @saifedean "It's a great business to be in Central Banking where you print money and people believe it" - Adrian Orr @ReserveBankofNZ #Bitcoin https://t.co/K4LhKlxaws" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1757595516953903302) 2024-02-14T02:40Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "@fundstrat in [----] absolutely crushing it with his call to allocate 1-2% to #bitcoin. Remember the talking heads @CNBC and @crypto are funded by Wall St. These folks are the noise but occasionally they provide some signal with high quality guests. Watch the host treat the guest who was the number [--] ranked US private bank strategist for many years with incredulity as he explains the basics of asset allocation and risk management. Pure Signal. The irony is that in [----] these same corporate mouth pieces will now be instructed to push the new #Bitcoin products. It's fun to watch🍿" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1761961793549943170) 2024-02-26T03:50Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements "My first article on asset allocation with a 1% position in #Bitcoin was published on the @Bloomberg terminal in [----]. [----] @DigitalAssets "hold my beer" Allocate 1-3% into #crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1762577553259467066) 2024-02-27T20:36Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@MajorDuffles when is the next Sydney Meet up I will be there :)" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1762617555066454288) 2024-02-27T23:15Z 10.6K followers, [---] engagements "#Blockchain fundamental analysis is a new field an open design space for the intellectually curious. But at its core are the long-standing well-accepted principles of network theory or Metcalfe's Law which states the value of a network is proportional to the number of nodes/users and interconnections. Daily Active Users (DAUs) for smart contract (SCP) blockchains keep hitting new ATHs - currently 6.34m (30day avg). Meanwhile the aggregate mkt cap for these networks is still 40% below the [----] peak. Unlike previous bear markets more users came into the ecosystem in 2022/23 despite wicked" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1762646853278204379) 2024-02-28T01:12Z 10.7K followers, 60.5K engagements "The [----] #Bitcoin Bull mkt narrative may have started with the ETFs but by the end of the year it will all be about the Sovereigns. The media will have a fit when the sovereigns start announcing they have bought #Bitcoin . In reality though there are likely already a handful that own but haven't announced it. Candidates include the nations that have already invested in mining operations. What's better https://t.co/8chXsDTsBA The media will have a fit when the sovereigns start announcing they have bought #Bitcoin . In reality though there are likely already a handful that own but haven't" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1763140109489303751) 2024-02-29T09:52Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements "#Uniswap 'fee switch' could be a pivotal moment for #Crypto assets in this cycle as it demonstrates just how cashflow generative some of these open finance protocols have become. Not to mention a big FU to the SEC. UNI token has rallied 50% since the news. This is a $10b mkt cap asset on track to do $760m in fee revenue this year which is the equivalent of the [----] revenues for the 13th and 14th largest global exchanges (ASX & SGX). It trades on a 14x P/S multiple which isn't necessarily 'cheap' by traditional standards but is the same multiple as the CME with one difference (of many)--" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1763513547827609791) 2024-03-01T10:36Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman's research is pedestrian. What's more impactful to allocators is how $BTC performs in the inevitable bear mkts when liquidity tightens. $BTC is reflecting a dramatically changing financial market where everything else is becoming more risky and less attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1764497968093331492) 2024-03-04T03:47Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Jamie1Coutts Jamie Coutts CMT
Jamie Coutts CMT suggests that recent market conditions are favorable for owning risk assets, including crypto, as liquidity and debt imbalances are improving. He notes that Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets already bottomed in 2022-2023. Coutts is predicting a new all-time high for Bitcoin and top [---] crypto market cap by May.
Engagements: [------] #
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- [--] Year [---------] -21%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -13%
- [--] Month [--] +29%
- [--] Months [--] no change
- [--] Year [---] -57%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +0.29%
- [--] Month [------] +7.80%
- [--] Months [------] +19%
- [--] Year [------] +51%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence cryptocurrencies finance stocks countries automotive brands currencies technology brands exchanges travel destinations social networks
Social topic influence bitcoin #6634, liquidity #1425, money, crypto, in the, market, blockchain, $btc, ethereum, bullish
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @realvision @raoulgmi @bitformanceteam @bitteljulien @dsbatten @artemisxyz @solana @business @tokenterminal @crypto @greentyler27 @andreassteno @robertkennedyjr @caprioleio @cburniske @crossbordercap @aixbtagent @bbgintelligence @bloomberg @42macroweather
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Solana (SOL) Rally (RLY) BlackRock Inc (BLK) Near Protocol (NEAR) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@CryptoHayes Lets look beyond US & add global money supply (M2) into the mix -- our custom index of the [--] of the largest economies' has contracted by 7.47% ($7T). Of the top [--] most of the tightening has come from local currencies depreciating & not M2 contraction (only US M2 is down YTD)"
X Link 2022-10-13T12:00Z 27.5K followers, [--] engagements
"While $BTCs symbiosis with the macro makes it vulnerable in a rate-hiking cycle we expect the network to resume its growth trajectory later this yr as it moves beyond the carnage inflicted by the failure of financial intermediaries. A $BTCs Network-Adoption metrics🧵 #glassnode"
X Link 2023-01-11T13:30Z 27.4K followers, [----] engagements
"#ETH Staking: network absorbs withdrawals hits ATH. 15% staked below ind' avg' 50%+ Deflation: More activity ➡ to L2 but protocol still burns 2.4x daily issuance (ann inflation -0.80%) Yield: When factoring in MEV the $ETH real staking yield 8% @Bloombergintelligence"
X Link 2023-05-30T12:00Z 19.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The tight correlation observed between the #Nasdaq and #Ethereum is indicating a potential upward breakout for $ETH. While the rise of $NVDA and #AI has propelled the $NDX higher market breadth remains lousy. 🧵"
X Link 2023-05-30T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Ethereum's fee burn mechanism is superior to stock buybacks because; 1) It is based purely on network demand (reflexive) 2) Not funded by debt At -0.80% inflation rate its only slightly behind $META/$MSFT. The next bull cycle $ETH is likely to see $AAPL level deflation of 4-5%"
X Link 2023-05-31T12:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"🔍 Despite short-term challenges for risk assets induced by a Fed-enabled liquidity crunch analysis of Ethereum's network fundamentals reveal an improving outlook 📈 Under the hood critical indicators; fees staking adoption and L2s are show positive signs 🧵"
X Link 2023-06-02T11:35Z 19.4K followers, [----] engagements
"But price will depend on activity and adoption. The ratio of active addresses (blue) shows that SOL had approximately [---] times the number of users than ETH in [----]. This has fallen to roughly 1:1 with about [------] active addresses interacting with each chain daily"
X Link 2023-06-29T13:32Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@ManishKSingh79 Appreciated @ManishKSingh79. I def incl L2s in assessing ETH network value. But there is an adj factor for L2s (not 1:1 to L1)"
X Link 2023-06-29T23:12Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"#Bitcoin forces the protected inefficient rent seeking financial sector to innovate. There is an obv reason 1/3 world is unbanked. Now CB's will use blockchain to enshrine their totalitarian impulses. The PROGRAMMABLE part is the only aspect of Blockchain they truly care about"
X Link 2023-07-05T23:27Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The most talked about liquidity measure on the street is diverging. While the statistical relationship with risk assets is not as strong as touted it is still an important indicator to watch. 3-mth momentum has turned negative. 1st time since Fed bank bailout in March. $Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-07-06T20:02Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Global liquidity contracting (again). Past 3mths: G5 CB balance sheets -$486b & Global M2 -$1.28T. This money supply contraction amidst a steady Dollar hints at bank-led credit squeeze. Without a pivot tough enviro for risk assets #Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-07-07T12:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Introducing Bloomberg Intelligence's new Crypto Ecosystem (PoS Assets) Fundamentals Dashboard. We're expanding coverage beyond the two assets that we considered to be institutional-grade quality (BTC ETH) to the wider proof-of-stake (PoS) ecosystem. A 🧵 on why"
X Link 2023-07-14T12:00Z 51.7K followers, 311.5K engagements
"@marceIogranja @cburniske I post most research on this platform. If you want to be added to my email distribution then send me your address. Cheers"
X Link 2023-08-07T10:50Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"#Ethereum Fee Revenue (USD) has outpaced the $ETH price YTD as economic activity expands independent of price speculation. This is the first time in 2yrs that Fees are outperforming Price making [----] look a lot like [----]. @BBGIntelligence"
X Link 2023-08-09T01:03Z 10.2K followers, 13.4K engagements
"The dual surprise of faster L2 adoption and less than expected cannibalization of the L1 financials hasour confidence in #Ethereum's potential to accrue more value than alternative L1s over the cycle. A🧵on the changing dynamics of $ETHs network fundamentals from thein L2s"
X Link 2023-08-09T23:56Z 10.2K followers, 25.9K engagements
"The liquidity situation has worsened since July prompted by dollar strength and further CB balance sheet contraction. Its very difficult for risk assets to rally in this environment. A CB pivot is hopium until more things break. Despite falling correlations #Bitcoin still a way off from a decoupling from risk assets. Global liquidity contracting (again). Past 3mths: G5 CB balance sheets -$486b & Global M2 -$1.28T. This money supply contraction amidst a steady Dollar hints at bank-led credit squeeze. Without a pivot tough enviro for risk assets #Bitcoin https://t.co/08T8HUSmLV Global liquidity"
X Link 2023-08-17T04:00Z 19.4K followers, 27.4K engagements
"#paypal's #stablecoin exposes many new users to #Web3. Bridges are great but if the blockchain econ is to grow apps have a ways to go before mainstream adoption. In Dev Mkts stables are vital for #NFTs gaming & beyond but currently token spec & payments are main use cases 1/3"
X Link 2023-08-17T11:12Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"It was several liquidity metrics in my macro model which pointed to a risk asset rug pull back in July. Gravity always asserts itself eventually. What now for #BitcoinHistorically (10Y avg)-Sept is worst month (-6%) followed by what is usually the strongest quarter esp Nov (+47%)"
X Link 2023-08-17T23:03Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Mark_Sisson [----] was when I discovered you and your content has been nothing short of transformative. Thank you for the knowledge and wisdom"
X Link 2023-08-19T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"While the network has stagnated since [----] we are clearly seeing rising adoption from each cycle low albeit at a slower pace"
X Link 2023-08-23T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"What does this mean for valuation My Price/Active Entity z-score identifies major bottom inflection points. For the first time since 1Q23 $btc is undervalued on this metric but not yet extremely oversold/cheap. However recent action has de-risked the asset from this perspective"
X Link 2023-08-23T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"#Ethereum ecosystem is expanding at pace w/ active addrs in L1/L2 hitting ATHs 1.97m. Based on L1 active addresses the network is fairly valued. Once we add in the exploding L2s the network appears undervalued at [-----] StdDev. 1/4"
X Link 2023-08-24T07:24Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"👀Stablecoins Eclipse #Mastercard #PayPal Leading Digital Money Evolution A thread from today's note on the @Bloomberg terminal which looks at a representative dataset of fiat-backed #stablecoins on the largest Layer-1 #crypto networks"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Stablecoin Payments Overtook Mastercard in [----] 👉 in '22 stables on various L1s transacted $6.87T surpassing trad payment co's. 👉#Bitcoin did even more than #visa 👉This year volumes have plummeted 80% w/ hostile US regs and bear mkt exposing the extent of cyclicality/spec"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"But stable issuance is set to explode 👉PayPal's decision to issue $PYUSD leapfrogs competitors addressing growth concerns via crypto's open networks. 👉The potential implication for crypto assets especially Ethereum is a big deal if only a small % of PYPL users convert"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Note: though this scenario looks extremely positive for the asset it's unrealistic at present given current network constraints in the form of transaction costs and L1 capacity. More on that later"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"👉Visa and Mastercard are investing in & integrating with open networks 👉I expect to see more announcements & innovation from more payments companies in coming months"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"While the structural adoption trend might have been hampered by tightening liquidity and an anti-crypto US reg environment the potential for this new money to dominate global payments will be largely determined by the efforts of public blockchains to process more transactions"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"And I get it #Tron is not exactly the pin up child for decentralized and transparent networks. Which is probably why it hasnt absorbed all of USDTs mkt cap -48% vs 42% on ETH-its not all about cheaper and faster txs. The mkt perceives a high security risk"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"👉But its pretty clear that #Ethereum will be the winner in the upcoming stablecoin wars 👉Across most network-adoption verticals ETH or its broader ecosystem which includes fast-growing rollup chains (L2s) such as #Optimism #Base #Arbitrum lead all alternative networks"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"👉However today the cost of transferring the largest stablecoin USDT on Ethereum is magnitudes more than the cost on other networks especially L2s. 👉ETHs rollup-centric scaling roadmap will make L2 txs even cheaper (10-100X) next yr with EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding)"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Itshighly likely that PYUSD was launched on L1 bc thats where the liquidity and network effect is but will move to L2s and/or PayPal might spin up its own sovereign rollup similar to Coinbase"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Bitcoin's integration into the global macro fabric evident by US liquidity index's effectiveness as a risk on/off overlay; 👉Bullish (long) regimes profitable 67% of time avg 31.69% return max drawdown 20% 👉Bearish (short) regimes profitable 50% of time 3.56% return max"
X Link 2023-08-29T08:24Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Despite being kneecapped by the SEC for [--] years while other jurisdictions leapfrog with spot ETP solns the US still accounts for 80% of total #Bitcoin Fund assets w/ #Grayscale 55% of the total. Now we are looking at unlocking billions in Retail/RIA/Institutional capital that"
X Link 2023-08-30T01:13Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Liquidity & #Bitcoin are inexorably linked. For in-depth analysis on this topic you cant go past @42MacroWeather @RaoulGMI @crossbordercap @MacroAlf This 🧵 explores one specific liquidity measure in order to understand whether it it has "signal value" for $BTC"
X Link 2023-08-31T01:30Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"While the technical vs. fundamental analysis debate rages in TradFi assets such as Equities #crypto comes along with onchain data and elegantly synthesizes both in real-time (blocks)"
X Link 2023-09-04T06:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Can the story with US #Stablecoins be any more clear The market has spoken -- Stables have product market fit especially for the less global citizenry (mainly EM) while extending dollar dominance at the very moment the globe is fracturing 1/4"
X Link 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Tether usage spikes in Asia & MENA suggests crypto dollars remain popular in emerging markets which have been hit hard by inflation are less free and have less access to traditional financial channels. Great data from @flipsidecrypto 2/4"
X Link 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"South & Central America🔥 👉Latam citizens received $562B in digital currency value from 2021-22 👉El Salvador torching critics with a successful #Bitcoin-oriented econ policy 👉The front-runner in Argentina's presidential race CB skeptic Javier Milei advocates $BTC 3/4"
X Link 2023-09-06T00:51Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"There is no valid reason in a liberal Western democracy for a retail #CBDC if the private sector has already solved the issues that Central Banks claim to be concerned about #stablecoins"
X Link 2023-09-06T02:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The winds of change - #Bitcoin (and other crypto) gets fair accounting treatment. This is an important adoption catalyst. Corporates will now be able to assess $BTC on its merits as a store of value debasement hedge w/o a punitive accounting rule"
X Link 2023-09-06T23:44Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Is anyone else noticing that nation-states are now openly investing in #Bitcoin mining operations Probably nothing"
X Link 2023-09-08T02:22Z 51.7K followers, 68K engagements
"@Paul04Trader positive. Its helping to decentralize mining further while shining a bright light on the benefits of Mining for grid stabilization decarbonization (if you believe in the CC hysteria) etc"
X Link 2023-09-08T02:32Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"And although US Liquidity index is higher recently its simply whipping around in a sideways range & therefore signals are basically noise unless there is a meaningful push higher which would likely only come with a policy change from the Fed. Not likely in ST 5/8"
X Link 2023-09-13T04:26Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Meanwhile the global liquidity contraction (M2 & CB Bal Sheets) has slowed but is still deeply negative. Until this reverses Bitcoin is unlikely to go higher. Likely lower. 6/8"
X Link 2023-09-13T04:26Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"The #Bitcoin energy narrative is flipping A new note out this morning on the Bloomberg Terminal looks at the rapid rise of sustainable energy sources in $BTC mining 🧵"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 51.7K followers, 231.3K engagements
"@CambridgeAltFinrefin recently revised its [----] estimate of electricity consumption from [----] terawatt-hours (TWh) from [-----] TWh after Coin Metrics produced a more accurate assessment of the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) machines used in the mining process"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Further enhancements by @DSBatten a climate-tech VC address deficiencies in the Cambridge model which exclude new sustainable energy sources such as off-grid power and flared gas and the massive geographical shift to less fossil fuel-intensive grids of the past 3yrs"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"👉Since China's mining ban in mid-2021 when emissions peaked at [----] megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions have declined 37.5% 👉suggesting the concern about Bitcoin's carbon footprint are being overstated"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sustainable Energy Sources Rise 50% 👉Falling emissions plus a dramatically rising hash rate can only mean one thing; Bitcoin mining is consuming more sustainable energy in its mix"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"While a significant % of mining occurs privately and off-grid estimating energy use remains an imperfect science. Its also an incredibly fast moving industry. That said @DSBatten modelling appears more accurate vs Cambridge. He has Sustainable energy source 53% and"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, 64.8K engagements
"The chart shows how geographical dispersion caused by China's mining ban catalyzed a push toward renewables. Since mid-2021 renewable-energy use (gray) has trended higher as total emissions (blue) have trended lower or moved sideways"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With energy accounting for about 50% of miners' costs the industry's shift to sustainables could impact global energy dynamics"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As we noted previously growing interest in Bitcoin mining by nation states reflects miners' ability to monetize stranded and excess energy (mainly from renewable and nuclear sources) while helping to balance and modernize power grids"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, 59.1K engagements
"What's becoming even more apparent is that the phasing out coal for wind and solar usually requires subsidies and involves suboptimal payoffs early in the life cycles of power plants. As a source of income based on excess power Bitcoin mining can support this transition"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Noting some improvement in US Liquidity conditions; [--]. US Financial Liquidity index has flipped to positive [--]. Reverse Repos being drained $400b in a month [--]. Treasury Volatility Index at lows for the year While ex-China CBs are still in tightening mode under the hood there is less stress in the most important asset class US treasuries i.e. the collateral of the global financial system. Too early to be meaningful regime change as it continues to trade in a sideways range. However it is interesting to see how the central planners may be engineering an exit from the aggressively tightening"
X Link 2023-09-18T23:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"A new report has dropped on the Bloomberg @TheTerminal this morning - a further examination of this symbiosis between #Bitcoin mining and the global #EnergyTransition 🧵"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Explainer: Carbon intensity is a measure of how clean our electricity is. It refers to how many grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) are released to produce a kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity. In TradFi companies are evaluated by their emissions or carbon intensity"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 27.5K followers, [---] engagements
"According to @DSBatten open source model sustainable energy for Bitcoin mining are 50%. This % had been rising since inception but kicked a gear higher when China banned mining in May-21 knocking out several fossil fuel-powered operations (crackdown in Kazakhstan also helped)"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"And this is where the rubber meets the road -- Bitcoin as a global monetary network is scaling while its carbon impact declines. Few industries can claim this achievement (zoom in to inspect the table as it has stacks of data)"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Summary 👉While network growth may be slowing rel to prev 5Y periods it remains robust. Most KPI's 5Y CAGRs are in double digits. 👉And if Metcalfes law network effects holds each new adopter and interconnection made has an exponential (not linear) impact on the network value"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Bottom Line: If the network scales to hundreds of millions of users the impact on global carbon emissions will be minimal and the technology itself is likely to play a pivotal role in the transition away from fossil fuels"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:46Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin Onchain Update 🟢HODLers All time highs 🟢Transactions All time highs 🟢Active Entities in 85% percentile of last 5Yrs 🟠Value $ moving down 30% in 12mths 🔴Median Value $7.72 - lowest since [----] Blockspace activity way UP but economic value is through the floor"
X Link 2023-09-21T23:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In hindsight #BlackRock's massive #Bitcoin spot ETF play shouldn't have been that surprising. Along with other behemoths (Vanguard StateStreet) who espouse #ESG-driven investing principles they started scooping up public mining stock back in [----] ESG Institutionalization🧵"
X Link 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, 24.7K engagements
"BlackRock began investing in Marathon Digital the second-largest publicly traded miner three years ago when hostility to mining was fever pitched -- perhaps due to the industry's heavy reliance on fossil fuels at the time (or for other reasons.)"
X Link 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"But given the activist tendencies of these big asset managers it's remains unclear if their intentions toward Bitcoin miners will be passive in nature"
X Link 2023-09-26T06:42Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"According to @hashindex public miners are 28% of #Bitcoin's global hashrate. The industry is evolving with public co's and nation-states now integrally involved. This presents opportunities & challenges to the network. 1/"
X Link 2023-09-27T07:58Z 10.2K followers, 16.9K engagements
"Small-scale miners remain critical to keeping the industry decentralized and more anti-fragile. But for some countries mining is outlawed or economically unfeasible. An interesting report from @coingecko estimates household electricity costs for mining [--] $BTC 2/"
X Link 2023-09-27T07:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"But even where electricity prices are dirt cheap there are risks of overloading fragile energy grids. Not to mention these countries are some of the most politically unstable countries on earth. 4/"
X Link 2023-09-27T07:58Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"What is most striking from this report is that for the West the promise of cheap energy from renewables has not materialized. As more renewables are added prices. In Australia 32% of energy is sourced from renewables & the divergence btwn energy prices and CPI widens😕"
X Link 2023-09-27T07:58Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements
"It looks like we are about to see a substantial uptick in volatility across all markets given where yields USD & global M2 are heading. Despite what lies ahead there has been a big shift in the volatility profiles of global assets vs. #Bitcoin over the past years. 👀🧵"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Since [----] the only assets that have seen their volatility profile decline have been hard assets #Bitcoin & #Gold. Everything else has become more volatile; Global FI 53% Global #Equity 33% #Bitcoin 52% #Gold 16%"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Given that $btc volatility is near the bottom of the range plus a deteriorating macro environment; US dollar 10Y Treasury Yield Global M2 inverted the USD & Yields to visualize the correlation Its diff to see how $BTC (& all risk assets) can hold up with this setup"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"But regardless of the next several months from an asset allocation standpoint what really matters is if #Bitcoin can add value as a risk diversifier & improve risk-adjusted returns"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Comparing risk-adjusted returns (Sortino) during the last two bear mkts further illustrates changing asset-allocation dynamics. In [----] BTC ranked bottom vs. [----] it ranked FI & some equity mkts. BTC was down 70% but it actually outperformed other assets on risk adj basis👀"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:41Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Few projects are showing this kind of price action in crypto. YTD @MakerDAO is up in relative and absolute terms. It may have something to do withfeesissuance & credible governance efforts. All of which are sorely lacking in the space if insto's are to take it seriously 1/"
X Link 2023-09-28T23:08Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"In our estimation there are around [---] fee earning protocols in the crypto ecosystem vs over 1000+. Once you account for their issuance 25% of them are "profitable" 5/"
X Link 2023-09-28T23:08Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The reality is that only a few dApps have a sustainable business model generate fees are not being constantly diluted by insane issuance schedules (sub-optimal tokenomics) and/or being dumped on by insiders who may or may not be disregarding vesting schedules. 6/"
X Link 2023-09-28T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The #crypto ecosystem of smart contract platforms witnessed a dip in active addresses in 3Q23 of -3% vs 2Q23. Since the bull mkt peak in [----] more than 1M active addresses have entered and remained in the ecosystem despite prices down 50-90% for these #blockchain's . #ethereum #solana"
X Link 2023-10-03T02:52Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Q3 Crypto Ecosystem (Smart Contract Platforms / PoS) Report Card Overview - Part 1🧵 YoY Performance Highlights 👉Market Cap +6% 👉Active Addresses up 1m or +25% 👉Qtrly Revenues +82.9% 👉Qtrly Profitability improves from -$2.28b to -$0.42b 👉However Capital & Activity Vols"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Q3 vs Q2 [----] Performance Highlights 👉Mkt Cap down 12% 👉Core adoption metrics all down after the Q2 meme coin related surge 👉Active Addresses have outperformed in being less price sensitive down 2.9%"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Overall drawdown from peak remains around -70%. Below the surface there has been a large divergence in 12mth price performance; 👉ETH L1 +25% 👉ETH L2s +20% 👉Alt-L1s -29% ETH ecosystem mkt cap dominanceat 72%"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"👉The rise in L2s has meant that the Ethereum network has started to regain market share from the Alt-L1 peers. 👉In the past year Active Address L2 growth outpaced Alt-L1's by 2x (albeit from a lower base)"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Overall Alt-L1s make up 80% of Active Addresses but their growth is slowing while L2s is increasing"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Still the majority of transactions done on Alt-L1s. Unclear how much are legit txs we know that despite this high tx throughput and volume few Alt-L1s have positive earnings. We put this down in most cases to capacity oversupply sub-optimal product mkt fit & tokenomic models"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Below is a breakdown of how effective the Alt-L1s are in converting transactions and active addresses into fee revenue. Fees to Active Address Ratio 👉ETH L1 26x 👏👏 👉ETH L2s 9x 👉Alt-L1s 2.3x 🤔 Fees to Transactions 👉ETH L1 8.4x 👏👏 👉ETH L2s [----] 👉Alt-L1s 0.3x 🤔"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:56Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Below is analysis of the Fee Conversion Rates for active users and transactions for smart contract/PoS #crypto #blockchains. We know adoption metrics like active addresses fees & transactions are critical for modelling asset prices. However in isolation these metrics can be misleading. How do the Fee Conversion Rate's work The Fee conversion rate explains how much a network collects for the activity level from transactions addresses. For simplicity we segment the entire mkt into [--] categories; #Ethereum L1 Ethereum L2s Alternative L1s (#Solana #Cosmos #Avalanche #Fantom etc etc etc) Results:"
X Link 2023-10-05T07:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Treasury volatility (MOVE index) is on the rise with the surge in yields. Every time volatility on USTs exceeds [--] std devs mkts have tanked. Its also been the point when the Fed historically has had to respond. USTs are the primary collateral for the fiat system. #Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-10-05T22:32Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"📊 According to data from @DefiLlama there are roughly [---] smart contract/PoS #blockchains. Astonishingly 88% of all transaction fees over the past year came from just [--] chains. This leaves the remainder to compete for a mere 12% with $ETH L2s increasing their share at a rapid rate. 🔗 #Ethereum L1 dominates with a 57% share while #Tron claims 31%. Concerns about the authenticity of Tron's activity are worthy of attention; Key challenges for most smart contract/PoS blockchains include: [--] Excess blockspace availability [--] Highly inflationary supply schedules [--] Unreported supply indications"
X Link 2023-10-07T05:06Z 10.2K followers, 28K engagements
"Isn't this interesting.our #Bitcoin trend model pops off a bullish signal at a time when USTs are cratering🤔 For #technicalanlysis buffs we know trend models are great unless we are in the chop of a sideways trading range which we have been in since Q2. So for now this signal is noise. However the $31000 resistance remains a crystal clear threshold that once broken would ignite the bull cycle"
X Link 2023-10-08T23:02Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"In the hyper-competitive world of smart contract #blockchains fee income is a critical driver for asset prices. Currently 60% of fees are derived from the #Ethereum L1 & L2's but in terms of addresses & Txs the alternative L1s have a much higher share of "activity" 🧵"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Previously we introduced a novel way to assess financial strength the "Fee-conversion rate" i.e. fees per unit of activity (Tx or address) in the same way as average revenue per user (ARPU) is used for online software telco businesses"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"*Note: Token prices impact Fee metrics as fees are paid in the native token. Firstly we need to ascertain if fees have risen independent of just prices rallying. Despite lousy volumes fees prices in the past 12mths"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Near-frictionless transaction costs and faster speeds are a prerequisite for global blockchain adoption but it's not clear how some L1s w/ chronically low fee-conversion rates will be able to maintain sufficient network security even when/if demand reaccelerates in [----] beyond"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:39Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The lack of meaningful traction in the alternative L1 sector (ex Tron) may be explained by a general bear mkt malaise. But it does seem as though the $ETH ecosystem is pulling away from the pack"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:40Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Further clarity will come when we look into the supply and tokenomics models for these L1s in the coming days/weeks"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:40Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"While #Bitcoin is-14% in Q3 it remains the best performing asset YTD62%. Meanwhile the premium safe asset class US Long bond-13% in Q3 &-11% YTD. Extending losses for the second year in a row. Is the reshuffling in global asset volatility a signal in the noise 🧵"
X Link 2023-10-10T07:00Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Meanwhile asset allocators who only care about risk adjusted returns are observing yet another year in which $BTC is outperforming most global assets. YTD Bitcoin has the #2 best Sortino Ratio 3Q23 Bitcoin comes out ahead of bonds on Sortino Ratio despite -14%"
X Link 2023-10-10T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Slowly building out technical breadth measures for the #Crypto market. Below is the first version of the equal weight index and Accumulation Advance/Decline Line. Folks familiar with this SPX or NDX Advance/Decline line will appreciate how breadth indicators provide confirmation and divergence signals for markets. Our mkt cap and equal wgt indices consist of the Top [---] crypto assets rebalanced every quarter. There is still some jumps and distortions in the data which we are working on. Unfortunately these wont be available on the Terminal (for now) but we will feature these new indicators in"
X Link 2023-10-11T04:57Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This was a poor year for most assets with the SPX which has rarely been down YoY since CBs unleashed QE in [----] fall 6.2%. So Bitcoin was not alone in having a poor year. Nevertheless for the unit of risk equities and Bonds did much better"
X Link 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"So what happened in the next bear market In [----] we saw extreme volatility across the entire financial system complex - no asset was spared. Fixed income - the foundation of every sovereign foundation asset manager and pension was slaughtered"
X Link 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"In [----] Bitcoin's Sortino was as bad as it was in [----] but yet it finished middle of the global rankings. Suddenly equities and especially bonds had become far more risky"
X Link 2023-10-11T22:33Z 10.2K followers, 12.4K engagements
"2022 marks a watershed moment in the story of global asset allocation strategies. Every portfolio model must account for the heightened risk in their perceived safe assets. This requires a complete reshaping of portfolio construction framework"
X Link 2023-10-11T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Keep in mind that the surge in interest rates looming recession and the accompanying unemployment can be directly linked to the recent government control and corporate misconduct during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you didn't recognize it then or haven't noticed its effects since you might be susceptible to the latest deception"
X Link 2023-10-14T00:36Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"TradFi is driving the growth of real-world assets issued on public #blockchains. More firms will enter soon. Growth is off a low base but it is rising steadily. Demand is also emanating from #EmergingMarkets which is not surprising given Stablecoin adoption @rwa_xyz 🧵1/5"
X Link 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tokenization of US money market funds exceeds $600m up from $100m YTD. 2/5"
X Link 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Some very conspicuous TradFi name's has issued 50% of these assets @FTI_Global @WisdomTreeFunds 3/5"
X Link 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting to see the choice of networks @StellarOrg 4/5"
X Link 2023-10-16T07:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Bitcoin's active addresses (AA) have dropped sharply- the most pronounced 1-month fall since mid-2021. While BRC/Ordinals have distorted some onchain metrics this year a dwindling AA typically is not price positive. The divergence between price and AA underscores building market expectations for ETF listings and a liquidity pivot. With the mkt chopping between $25k-$30k everything is noise until we breach the $31k resistance (or $24k support)"
X Link 2023-10-21T03:59Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@coindays_org That is absolutely true from structural standpoint. More users will flow to L2. However it has almost nothing to do with short term changes in active addresses in the magnitude we have seen in the past month"
X Link 2023-10-21T07:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For half a year this asset's danced between $25k-$31k. More coins have changed hands in this tight range than anywhere else in its price distribution. This is also the longest period of compressed volatility in its history. The next phase in the breakdown of the fiat monetary order is nearly upon us. Gold is also hinting at this. When #Bitcoin breaks $31k its an air pocket to $39k"
X Link 2023-10-23T08:52Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements
"Watch Tradfi companies who bottom ticked one of the biggest financial market transformations of the past century reverse course in [----]. As Bitcoin eyes the throne as the next global reserve asset pensions and fund managers clutching their "risk-free" US Treasuries are having to relearn the foundational tenets of risk management diversification postion size while being introducedto the inescapable realities of fiat finance. Tokenization of real-world assets account abstraction and the rise of stablecoins are about to take crypto from 5-10 million crypto daily users to [---] million by 2028"
X Link 2023-10-24T20:04Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements
"What #bitcoin price action has done this week from a technical standpoint is the equivalent of the breakout above $10500 resistance in July [----]. Price has cleared a massive supply overhangthe largest in its history. Whilst there will be pullbacks as we saw in Q3 [----] price is confirming the bull market regime which I called in Dec-2022 based on my liquidity and market structure analysis. https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1599728073099935744s=20 https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1599728073099935744s=20"
X Link 2023-10-24T21:32Z 51.7K followers, 91.9K engagements
"2022 was the liquidity-driven and much-needed #crypto exorcism [----] was a US state-led attack on the industry - some warranted but certainly not all (OpChokepoint [---] etc) Meanwhile users interacting with proof-of-stake blockchains especially stables and the ongoing experimentation of Web3 continue to rise each year regardless of price action and regulatory vitriol. By the end of [----] daily active users were around 3.89M. In Q3 this number rose to 5.05M up 30%. The 3-year CAGR is 88%. Prices are still 60% from the ATH in [----]. This is the signal amongst the noise"
X Link 2023-10-25T22:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ever since inscriptions and Ordinals debuted in Q1 a lingering question has been their contribution to total activity. @glassnode's data reveals they have made up approximately 40% of #Bitcoins total transactions. While art-based NFTs may be the initial prominent use case the potential of a genuinely decentralized and immutable blockchain to serve as a global database and ultimate source of truth could inspire unforeseen applications. With more use cases come increased fees"
X Link 2023-10-27T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Public blockchains hold immense potential for empowering global citizens. The $850B private credit market is just the beginning. Currently there are $568M in active loans issued through credit funds on platforms like #Ethereum #Polygon and #Solana. Who's investing Demand primarily stems from equatorial regions specifically emerging markets (EM) with minimal participation from developed markets (DM). Historically private credit was reserved for accredited investors. But now thanks to public blockchains and the rise of stablecoins regions plagued by inflation and starved of yields can tap into"
X Link 2023-10-31T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Earlier this year something big happened in #Bitcoin's ascendency to global reserve asset status. US depositors got an all too real taste of what it must be like to live in developing countries with fragile financial systems. In March [----] for the first time #Bitcoin demonstrated its independence from traditional risk assets by passing a banking stress test. Post-GFC we've witnessed several banking crises where a spike in the interbank market rate signalled a complete collapse in trust. During these times such as in [----] and [----] $BTC plummeted alongside all other 'risk' assets. However over"
X Link 2023-11-02T03:51Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Bear market/Bull market adoption of #blockchain technology continues unabated. Not having exposure to one of the largest structural trends of the next decade could be costly. [--] million daily #crypto users today is likely to be 100m in less than [--] years. 🧵"
X Link 2023-11-03T01:48Z [----] followers, 50.7K engagements
"#Cardano still commands a mkt cap of 75% of #Solana despite only having 16% of the daily users. This trade has more to go. #Solana Technicals: interesting setup with old support acting as new resistance. The $30-$40 level was where a lot of insiders began dumping on retail in the previous bull mkt. 🧵 https://t.co/ofI3o69CC8 #Solana Technicals: interesting setup with old support acting as new resistance. The $30-$40 level was where a lot of insiders began dumping on retail in the previous bull mkt. 🧵 https://t.co/ofI3o69CC8"
X Link 2023-11-06T05:06Z 26.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Despite 100% rally in [----] so far its been firm hands. #Bitcoin addresses that have bought twice and not sold hits new ATH 844k. This amounts to over 3m BTC or 16% of circulating supply. HODLers will make ETF investors pay up. 1/2"
X Link 2023-11-06T05:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As the #crypto asset class heads towards $8T-$10T this cycle I expect to see the proliferation of systematic and factor-based strategies. Watch for funds with proven out-of-sample returns and [--] cycles under their belt to go from sub-$25m to $500m-$1b AUM. h/t @Kallerhoff"
X Link 2023-11-14T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Those that believe that recent price action is down to the ETF news are delusional. By Q1 #Bitcoin was sending the clearest of signals that the very nature of asset allocation was changing. Its just that most weren't paying attention"
X Link 2023-11-14T02:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In July -- $39000 by November was the call. Need some Vivek/RFK Jnr magic to get it there. Help me out @PeterMcCormack"
X Link 2023-11-17T06:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Bitcoin is already a reserve asset at the sovereign level. Several energy-rich nation-states have invested hundreds of millions into facilities with projected investments of $1b-$2b & 2000MW coming online in the couple of years. These countries have publicly stated that Bitcoin mining is a strategic energy initiative. If that is true then they are already holding $BTC on their balance sheet. The first of the sovereigns have arrived"
X Link 2023-11-19T07:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its all linked -- Central Bank liquidity- Global M2- Bitcoin Price- Crypto Prices- Crypto Users The liquidity cycle bottomed in Q4 [----] as did users of smart contract blockchains. However the liquidity cycle only impacts the rate-of-change of adoption. Consistently blockchain adoption increases YoY irrespective of asset prices. Blockchain technology is in a structural uptrend that will last for many years and we are at the start of the next cyclical upswing"
X Link 2023-11-19T20:32Z 51.7K followers, 212.6K engagements
"Then when everyone says "No way" they will quietly get you long because they care not for what the talking heads and mkt pundits say"
X Link 2023-11-20T22:27Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements
"focus on the winning trades total PnL vs Losing trades PnL ie what is the SIZE of the wins vs. losses. The count is less important. This is the performance of wins/losses over the bear mkt [----] to [----]. Eventhough there was an aggregate loss the average win is 3x the avg loss"
X Link 2023-11-20T22:27Z 40.1K followers, [---] engagements
"In [----] more protocols will enjoy reward rates above treasuries and more than the current [--] chains will turn deflationary. #Ethereum"
X Link 2023-11-27T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the regulatory onslaught from US authorities staking demand in [----] has had a robust year. The top [--] staked assets increased the no. of staking wallets by 69% on average. Only one network had negative growth (understandably)"
X Link 2023-11-27T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The wonderful thing about a new start is re-imagining your product with a fresh perspective. The #Bitcoin Fundamentals dashboard is back; in the next week I will be adding new data (not just onchain) valuation metrics and insights. Other L1s will follow in 1-2 months. LFG"
X Link 2023-11-29T05:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One of these #Bitcoin bear markets is not like the other. Accumulation Address (bought twice and never sold) [----] -20% [----] +60% Conviction"
X Link 2023-11-30T05:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My first report for @RealVision has dropped. Its a deep dive on #crypto adoption and what that means for asset values. One insight from the report: Several key drivers are coalescing behind the re-acceleration of blockchain adoption as the technology steadily embeds itself into the fabric of our digital era. The role AI will play in the future of blockchain will be a major swing factor in that adoption arc. @RaoulGMI and team have built an awesome product at RV and after a decade as a subscriber (the longest financial subscription service I have ever owned) I am truly stoked to now be a"
X Link 2023-11-30T22:04Z [----] followers, 52K engagements
"Given its #Bitcoin "Prediction" season I thought I would re-share my July cycle analysis (when $BTC was at $29000) and a quick thought around modelling in general as this bull market heats up Cycle Analysis: [--]. First stop was $39000 by November 2023✅ [--]. Second stop was $92000 (moderate) to $170000 (bullish) by Q4 [----] - TBC I constructed this based on pure price cycle behaviour. I have also published a bit of price modelling based on adoption metrics which have a moderately high explanatory power with price. While that informs my outlook I always place price at the centre of #blockchain asset"
X Link 2023-12-04T22:14Z [----] followers, 24.3K engagements
"Bitcoin's ESG attributes"
X Link 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin as a safe haven asset alternative to Bonds"
X Link 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"That's enough for now sometimes you have to DYOR"
X Link 2023-12-05T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mihalbig I have never argued the entire fleet of trucks will be replaced. It's at the margins"
X Link 2023-12-05T10:45Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements
"A breakdown of the final section of the recent report published to @RealVision Crypto Pro subscribers -- "Scaling the Heights: A Roadmap to [---] Million Daily Crypto Users" It's a 🧵with plenty of charts. Let's dive in. #crypto #blockchain #ethereum #solana"
X Link 2023-12-07T06:11Z [----] followers, 29.8K engagements
"Thesis: After a period dominated by innovators/early adopters the structural uptrend in blockchain users is on the verge of the next major inflection point. The convergence of self-reinforcing tech will address bottlenecks/UX issues driving it to mainstream for the 1st time"
X Link 2023-12-07T06:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin is entering Belief / Denial zone. This is when 25-30% pullbacks can start appearing regularly. Make no mistake the compulsion to sell will inflict itself on every holder. However onchain we can see based on metrics like illiquid supply/long-term holders etc that this bull market started from a much higher base level of conviction than ever before. This has a lot to do with a far more informed population. There has been an explosion in the study and analysis of central banking liquidity and macro analysis. Thanks to the contributions of many great thinkers and educators"
X Link 2023-12-07T23:15Z 51.7K followers, 46K engagements
"@sassal0x I noticed when I saw you in Sydney. Keep it up mate"
X Link 2023-12-08T19:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Liquidity backdrop still constructive #Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-12-12T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ellymelly Income tax regime similar to Singapore 12-15% to reward hard work again and defund bloated corrupt tyrannical govt"
X Link 2023-12-14T09:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While #altcoins are breaking out from their basing pattern it is still a #Bitcoin dominant market. Yet the shift towards #Altseason feels imminent. Considering the significant capital flows expected from $BTC ETFs next year maybe it takes longer this cycle. Usually altseason hits within 1-1.5 years from the cycle low which is ard Q2 [----]. While human behaviour remains a constant with the rotation fueled by $BTC profits FOMO and greed we will see the emergence of some clear long term winners in this cycle; Alt-L1s L2s and dApps with product market fit and growing adoption. #Blockchain adoption"
X Link 2023-12-14T10:02Z 10.2K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Its not even Altseason and $COIN has started to outperform $BTC. There is resistance from $152-$225 as disgruntled bagholders from the IPO who didnt dump at capitulation lows get out. They will be replaced by new set of holders who can see the tokenization wave coming and realize how value accretive their L2 #Base is to the business. #projectdiamond"
X Link 2023-12-15T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its not even Altseason and $COIN has started to outperform $BTC. There is resistance from $152-$225 as disgruntled bagholders from the IPO get out. They will be replaced by new set of holders who can see the tokenization wave coming and realize how value accretive their L2 #Base is to the business. #projectdiamond"
X Link 2023-12-15T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The perfect parallel for today's #crypto market The US stock market of the early 1900s. This unique environment offers abundant alpha-generating opportunities unmatched in any other asset class. But this window will exist only for a few years before it is arbitraged away. At the turn of the century the US economy was emerging as the global economic superpower and capital poured in. The network state/crypto ecosystem today is on the ascendency and ETFs will trigger a massive inflow of capital spanning decades. In the pre-1933 & [----] Securities Act era the US stock market operated in a loose"
X Link 2023-12-18T23:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Great discussion @carri_cee thank you for the opportunity to come on your show and nerd out on #Bitcoin data"
X Link 2023-12-18T23:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Tech is on track to be 25% of total global equity market by the end of [----]. That's a doubling in the past decade. #Crypto is on track to be 20% of Tech's mkt cap by [----]. That's a 5x in [--] years. I don't see why Tech & Crypto shouldn't've be the biggest overweight in portfolio's at least for the next 1-2 years until the liquidity cycle turns"
X Link 2023-12-28T22:49Z 21.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@ryanjohnsonhunt perhaps the easiest way to play it is the uranium equities ETF URA"
X Link 2023-12-30T19:55Z 10.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Interested in #Bitcoin and #crypto market analysis macro technical analysis sprinkled with a touch of liberty-minded anti-authoritarian perspectives Starting today over the next [--] days I'll be writing [--] Atomic Essays. You can follow my Social Blog on @typeshare_co: First one out today: [--] Lessons For Applying Technical Analysis To Your Investment Framework"
X Link 2024-01-02T21:34Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Interested in #Bitcoin and #crypto market analysis macro technical analysis sprinkled with a touch of liberty-minded anti-authoritarian perspectives Starting today over the next [--] days I'll be writing [--] Atomic Essays. You can follow my Social Blog on @typeshare_co: First one out today: [--] Lessons For Applying Technical Analysis To Your Investment Framework"
X Link 2024-01-02T22:02Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"While the ETFs are undoubtedly a massively bullish catalyst for #Bitcoin one of my global liquidity indicators has reached levels correlated with the assets best return periods. // Thread //"
X Link 2024-01-02T23:59Z 10.2K followers, 12.7K engagements
"Regardless of location we're all facing a minimum 9% hurdle rate due to fiat currency debasement just to maintain our financial status quo. In Australia for example the debasement rate averages 11.5% resulting in the money supply doubling every [---] years. I suspect only 3-4% of the global population truly understands what this chart means. However there is now an awakening as people become educated about the fiat credit monetary order. The inflows into #Bitcoin will be massive. In the US 75M baby boomers are holding an estimated $80T in assets (h/t @BitPaine). As Bitcoin ETFs gain approval a"
X Link 2024-01-03T05:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@NathanWrites There was a massive increase in Money supply in 2020/21 from the deficit spending and QE for the covid insanity. But the 11% is the annual average from 1969"
X Link 2024-01-03T11:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"2022 was supposed to be another R.I.P. year for public blockchains. The media and fiat experts said so. However the failure to understand the difference between a mania and the global adoption of a technology whose time has come is what provides the alpha for early investors. Here are [--] fundamental demand-side metrics that explain the health of the crypto ecosystem and that critics should use to check themselves. 🧵"
X Link 2024-01-07T00:13Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"1. Active Addresses #Bitcoin After a slowing adoption #Bitcoin active address count at 840k is bottoming and will hit news ATHs in 2yrs. Investment in the network from nation states in mining (e.g. UAE Bahrain) legal tender authorisation (Argentina El Salvador) & ETF inflows all create massive 2nd order effects"
X Link 2024-01-07T00:13Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The global #ESG movement is a farce. In [----] #Bitcoin's obvious ESG credentials will become widely accepted as the ESG high priests at #Blackrock anoint the market with their ETF. And in a weird turn of events Bitcoin may allow the ESG grift to continue. Let me explain. TradFi & MSM had a decade to recognize the universal and unparalleled benefits that #Bitcoin brings to the world via the S & G pillars of ESG. It should have been recognized as the single best ESG investment at least [--] years ago when data on the increasing use of sustainable energy and methane mitigation became well known"
X Link 2024-01-08T11:15Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"What will happen when Sustainable investing funds realise #Bitcoin is the single best #ESG investment on the planet Bitcoin mining facilities capturing methane from landfill and flared gas are offseting 7% of the total emissions and this is rising fast. If this tech is scaled globally (h/t @DSBatten) it's conceivable that total emissions which have been stagnant for [--] years fall dramatically even as global adoption continues its exponential rise. $30T in 'sustainable' fund assets . what say you"
X Link 2024-01-09T02:08Z 10.2K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Great can we move on now please. It's not as if #CBDCs attacks on privacy and the persistent march of authoritarian Western governments are going to stop because we got our precious #bitcoin ETF listing. If anything it's the perfect distraction"
X Link 2024-01-10T21:56Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"#ElSalvador and #Argentina have set a precedent and now in a year where over half the world's population votes what's the chance by the end of it we have a few more sovereign #Bitcoin adopters It's going to get wild. So we got in way before BlackRock 🤷🏻♂ So we got in way before BlackRock 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2024-01-11T05:23Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Now the ETF is approved-who is going to be the first sovereign I have no edge here but it's interesting that Qatar is appearing in the betting market. Neighbours UAE & Oman have earmarked #Bitcoin mining as a strategic industry investing billions with private co's to mine with excess energy. Let the sovereign games begin"
X Link 2024-01-11T10:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Now the ETF is approved-who is going to be the first sovereign I have no edge here but it's interesting that Qatar is appearing in the betting market. Neighbours UAE & Oman have earmarked #Bitcoin mining as a strategic industry investing billions with private co's to mine it with their excess energy. Let the sovereign games begin"
X Link 2024-01-11T10:55Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"My #Bitcoin trend model produced a Long Exit today. It is easy to build a narrative as to why: [--]. On-chain activity data weak vs Price [--]. Network profitability metrics are high [--]. Extreme silliness exhibited with derivatives positioning/leverage leading into the ETF launch Nothing overly concerning given global liquidity & the bitcoin cycle. Low $40k provides a decent entry point for non-systematic/momentum investors. The following report for @RealVision will be a deep dive into #Bitcoin fundamentals macro and technicals"
X Link 2024-01-15T23:38Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"If anyone is interested in why the media continues to push falsehoods about #bitcoin mining's environmental impact then besides their confirmation bias and (negative) agenda it stems from their reliance on Cambridge's model which they admit is not reflective of reality but yet are reluctant to update/fix. @DSBatten brings the 🔥with this open letter to CCAF (Cambridge Cente for Alternative Finance) An open letter to CCAF (Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance) about your Bitcoin mining models Dear CCAF Would you predict an election result by using polling data from [--] years ago You know"
X Link 2024-01-16T02:10Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Q: What should one do when Global Money Supply breaks to new all-time highs A: Ignore it because Keynsians tell us aggregate demand is all that matters B: Thank our Fiat Central Planners for the gift of rising Asset prices C: Upon reviewing the real rates of return for assets thank god for #Bitcoin"
X Link 2024-01-16T03:01Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"It never ceases to amaze me how the media refuse to do the work on #Bitcoin . It speaks to a deep-seated disdain for free markets classical Western liberal ideals and their state worship. "The promoted benefits of crypto such as bitcoin have largely turned out to be false." Let's break down the "analysis" from @Johnkehoe23 @FinancialReview OPINION: Bitcoin will turn out to be a sideshow whose only role is to pave the way for state-backed digital money and tokenisation. https://t.co/0qbvo5f7ZY OPINION: Bitcoin will turn out to be a sideshow whose only role is to pave the way for state-backed"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, 11K engagements
"#1 "Bitcoin was marketed as an inflation hedge. But its price crashed from about $US68000 to $US16000 during the biggest inflation shock in [--] years. It was trading this week at around $US43000.""
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Please learn the difference between price and monetary inflation. In respect to price inflation every asset experienced negative returns during the [----] inflation scare. Bonds had their worst year since [----]. They were supposed to be safe allocation"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The media never talks about risk adjusted volatility because then they would reveal a greater than 12-year-old understanding of markets and the truth about volatility. [----] was much worse for other assets less "volatile" than $BTC. Sortino/Sharpe ratios reveal this"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@FinancialReview thinks you are daytraders. Zoom out and recognise whats happening. The far right column is US Money supply. Its grown by 223%. Thats your real inflation rate. CPI is a joke that Keynesians policy makers want us to swallow so we cant see the theft and don't notice lower real wages & living standards"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Everything in red has underperformed the money supply (monetary inflation) except US stocks Tech and Gold. $BTC is cursed by a short history but so far is nailing everything else. This is the actual (real) asset returns once monetary inflation is deducted from nominal returns. This is how your adviser should quote or compare assets. But they don't because umm fees"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"the article goes on with some real doozies. Like "Bitcoin was supposed to diversify peoples investment portfolios. But its price has been highly correlated to other risk-based assets chiefly listed equities." "Bitcoin was trumpeted as a stable store of wealth. Its turned out to be massively volatile.""
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
""Bitcoin was supposed to be a medium of exchange. It isnt except for a very limited number of enthusiasts." ""A digital US dollar or Aussie dollar backed by the central bank will have much more investor trust than risky private crypto assets.""
X Link 2024-01-17T23:13Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"State run media in China and their views on #Bitcoin. If the global citizenry freely choose a non state money "we are all going to die". Good thing our media politicians and elites believe in free markets capitalism civil liberties. Oh wait"
X Link 2024-01-19T00:41Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@SamLyman33 The 'free-banking era' strawman argument. Oh you mean the era of the greatest economic growth development and constant price deflation. Yes that one"
X Link 2024-01-20T03:10Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin is stuck with the Dollar Chart: $BTC vs $DXY (inverted) Once the $DXY breaks 99.5-101 there is little support until the low 90's. $BTC would likely reach new ATHs in that scenario"
X Link 2024-01-23T12:19Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@RaoulGMI Attia's lost me once he started suggesting statins for young ppl. His view on cholesterol and his worship of pharma are red flags"
X Link 2024-01-23T19:24Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin's primary use case as it stands today is a store-of-value asset. We can see that in the onchain data. The number of wallets long-term holders and accumulation addresses (bought twice and never sold) continue to hit new all-time highs"
X Link 2024-01-24T04:14Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Total addresses is now 51M which equates to approx. 300M ppl or 2.5% of the global pop"
X Link 2024-01-24T04:14Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Fiat money - Cantillion Effect - Peverse Incentives - Centralization - Garbage Science #DeSci"
X Link 2024-01-25T05:33Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The distribution phase for #Bitcoin appears to have commenced. This is not the end of the bull market but rather the transition in the cycle where long-term holders begin moving coins into new hands"
X Link 2024-01-25T19:33Z 10.2K followers, [----] engagements
""#Bitcoin is too volatile" - says privileged westerner"
X Link 2024-01-30T04:25Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Zoom out #bitcoin"
X Link 2024-01-30T23:54Z 10.3K followers, 21.1K engagements
"#Blockchain adoption is exceeding my projections. According to @artemis__xyz smart contract blockchain daily active users (DAU) averaged 6.9m in Jan up from 5.5m in Sep-23. 🚀25% growth in [--] months 🚀 In my report for @RealVision in Nov-23 I projected DAUs would hit 6.9m by April/May & 11m by Dec-24. In my Metcalfe's law-driven valn approach as more users enter the Web3 asset prices will naturally increase. From the report: "By [----] the model projects market capitalization could rise to $1.6$2 trillion up from the current $400 billion. Upon reaching [---] million users by [----] the asset class"
X Link 2024-01-31T07:11Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The latest #Bitcoin report dropped for @realvision subscribers today. It breaks down the cycle sentiment and price action. One of the key takeaways in the report was for the RIAs Boomers and Bitcoin first-timers who loaded up on ETFs only to get immediately smacked with a 20% sell-off. From the report; "If there is one certainty in markets when leverage accumulates this quickly and when positioning is as one-sided as it was here the market inevitably destroys that leverage in fairly short order." It's essential when analysing Bitcoin to look at positioning especially in the derivatives market"
X Link 2024-02-01T06:56Z 10.3K followers, 12.7K engagements
"Blockchains are here to stay. A 1% #Ethereum allocation has added an annualised 90bps to a US equities portfolio over past 6yrs (and improved Sharpe ratio). In time #Ethereum and other alts will be included in the "Digital Assets" sliver of multi-asset portfolios. The more sophisticated managers will create two buckets; [--]. #Bitcoin [--]. Digital Assets And optimise the weights accordingly. #crypto"
X Link 2024-02-02T00:16Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Over the past decade all assets have become more volatile as #Bitcoin's volatility declines. If holding other assets is becoming 'riskier' then one needs to be compensated for that higher volatility. A cursory look at the sharpe ratios tell us that this is not the case. 1/2"
X Link 2024-02-02T01:07Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@Ausproperty95 Law of diminishing returns. Hence mass migrant influx to keep nominal GDP growth positive as Real GDP goes deeply negative"
X Link 2024-02-08T12:41Z 10.3K followers, [---] engagements
"🚀Why this #Bitcoin rally has the potential to reach prev ATH pre-halving; [--]. All the extreme leverage and positioning from Q4 has been cleansed (for now). Options OI is down 40% and Futures funding rates are still positive but less exuberant [--]. ETFs continue to outpace supply by at least 2:1 and the halving is still months away [--]. Only 10% of the volume moved at prices above the current level. If $BTC breaches $48.2k there is scant overhead resistance. 🍿🍿🍿"
X Link 2024-02-10T20:02Z 10.5K followers, 39.2K engagements
"Daily active users engaging with smart contract #blockchains are breaking out to new ATHs. This is bullish for prices but what's driving the surging adoption And which networks are benefiting the most The first report is dropping at @RealVision later this week. #Crypto #Ethereum #Solana #NEARProtocol @artemis__xyz"
X Link 2024-02-11T10:29Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"#Bitcoin above $50000. The newsrooms at @nytimes @WSJbusiness @crypto @business @BBGIntelligence"
X Link 2024-02-12T21:39Z 29.6K followers, 61.1K engagements
"CENTRAL BANKS SAY THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD: This is Adrian Orr Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (@ReserveBankofNZ) #Bitcoin @Lawblock21 @saifedean "It's a great business to be in Central Banking where you print money and people believe it" - Adrian Orr @ReserveBankofNZ #Bitcoin https://t.co/K4LhKlxaws @Lawblock21 @saifedean "It's a great business to be in Central Banking where you print money and people believe it" - Adrian Orr @ReserveBankofNZ #Bitcoin https://t.co/K4LhKlxaws"
X Link 2024-02-14T02:40Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@fundstrat in [----] absolutely crushing it with his call to allocate 1-2% to #bitcoin. Remember the talking heads @CNBC and @crypto are funded by Wall St. These folks are the noise but occasionally they provide some signal with high quality guests. Watch the host treat the guest who was the number [--] ranked US private bank strategist for many years with incredulity as he explains the basics of asset allocation and risk management. Pure Signal. The irony is that in [----] these same corporate mouth pieces will now be instructed to push the new #Bitcoin products. It's fun to watch🍿"
X Link 2024-02-26T03:50Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements
"My first article on asset allocation with a 1% position in #Bitcoin was published on the @Bloomberg terminal in [----]. [----] @DigitalAssets "hold my beer" Allocate 1-3% into #crypto"
X Link 2024-02-27T20:36Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@MajorDuffles when is the next Sydney Meet up I will be there :)"
X Link 2024-02-27T23:15Z 10.6K followers, [---] engagements
"#Blockchain fundamental analysis is a new field an open design space for the intellectually curious. But at its core are the long-standing well-accepted principles of network theory or Metcalfe's Law which states the value of a network is proportional to the number of nodes/users and interconnections. Daily Active Users (DAUs) for smart contract (SCP) blockchains keep hitting new ATHs - currently 6.34m (30day avg). Meanwhile the aggregate mkt cap for these networks is still 40% below the [----] peak. Unlike previous bear markets more users came into the ecosystem in 2022/23 despite wicked"
X Link 2024-02-28T01:12Z 10.7K followers, 60.5K engagements
"The [----] #Bitcoin Bull mkt narrative may have started with the ETFs but by the end of the year it will all be about the Sovereigns. The media will have a fit when the sovereigns start announcing they have bought #Bitcoin . In reality though there are likely already a handful that own but haven't announced it. Candidates include the nations that have already invested in mining operations. What's better https://t.co/8chXsDTsBA The media will have a fit when the sovereigns start announcing they have bought #Bitcoin . In reality though there are likely already a handful that own but haven't"
X Link 2024-02-29T09:52Z 26.8K followers, [----] engagements
"#Uniswap 'fee switch' could be a pivotal moment for #Crypto assets in this cycle as it demonstrates just how cashflow generative some of these open finance protocols have become. Not to mention a big FU to the SEC. UNI token has rallied 50% since the news. This is a $10b mkt cap asset on track to do $760m in fee revenue this year which is the equivalent of the [----] revenues for the 13th and 14th largest global exchanges (ASX & SGX). It trades on a 14x P/S multiple which isn't necessarily 'cheap' by traditional standards but is the same multiple as the CME with one difference (of many)--"
X Link 2024-03-01T10:36Z 10.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman's research is pedestrian. What's more impactful to allocators is how $BTC performs in the inevitable bear mkts when liquidity tightens. $BTC is reflecting a dramatically changing financial market where everything else is becoming more risky and less attractive"
X Link 2024-03-04T03:47Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
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