#  @J0nathanKayy Jon Kay Jon Kay posts on X about $acmr, $be, $app, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1376546678308753413/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -47% - [--] Month [------] +137% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1376546678308753413/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +4.70% - [--] Month [--] +218% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1376546678308753413/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +5.90% - [--] Month [---] +114% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1376546678308753413/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$acmr](/topic/$acmr) #8, [$be](/topic/$be) #114, [$app](/topic/$app) #105, [in the](/topic/in-the), [ai](/topic/ai), [applovin](/topic/applovin) #112, [$te](/topic/$te) #81, [china](/topic/china), [$grpo](/topic/$grpo), [market](/topic/market) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@mathlonning](/creator/undefined) [@accountingds](/creator/undefined) [@aleabitoreddit](/creator/undefined) [@eddiejones26905](/creator/undefined) [@jonahlupton](/creator/undefined) [@contrariancurse](/creator/undefined) [@bdinvestingg](/creator/undefined) [@rahulsetty](/creator/undefined) [@pronkdaniel](/creator/undefined) [@jonathankay933739](/creator/undefined) [@futurenvesting](/creator/undefined) [@andreassteno](/creator/undefined) [@chriscamillo](/creator/undefined) [@problemsniper](/creator/undefined) [@steveplatz](/creator/undefined) [@donnoshid](/creator/undefined) [@raydalio](/creator/undefined) [@thexcapitalist](/creator/undefined) [@celestial4104](/creator/undefined) [@benitoz](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [ACM Research, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ACMR)](/topic/$acmr) [Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)](/topic/$be) [AppLovin Corporation (APP)](/topic/$app) [Reddit, Inc. (RDDT)](/topic/$rddt) [TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock (TMDX)](/topic/$tmdx) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Newmont Corporation (NEM)](/topic/$nem) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO)](/topic/$crdo) [NuCypher (NU)](/topic/$nu) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [BITMINE IMMERSION TECH (BMNR)](/topic/$bmnr) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)](/topic/$amat) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "3/12: ☁ The deal also gave Microsoft exclusive access to OpenAIs models via Azure. Every GPT upgrade runs on MSFT cloud so each model iteration = more Azure spend now estimated at $10B/year run-rate" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960459680389718289) 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "4/12: ⚡ In April [----] SoftBank ($SFTBY) entered the mix investing $7.5B immediately and up to $30B conditionally if OpenAI restructures into a public benefit corporation. Goal: allow flexible capital raising while keeping OpenAIs mission intact" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960459682377564247) 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "10/13 : Long-term Scenarios: [--] yrs: [----] PB new data $12.5B potential. [--] yrs: [---] PB/year $20B annual run rate. This could re-rate GoPro from a $1B hardware brand $20B+ AI infrastructure play" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800868313522527) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "11/13 : 📈 Social Arb Angle: Nostalgic brand everyone knows. High short interest. Simple ticker: $GPRO. Misunderstood business model. All it takes: one AI licensing deal (Tesla OpenAI Figure AI etc.) 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800874114032020) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NU - interest for credit cards is at an all time high in Mexico - future looks promising for Nubank" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1961472086595060028) 2025-08-29T16:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "5/9 : Doing the Math $HOOD = 0.17% of the S&P [---] $7.5T in passive AUM = $12.75B in required buying This is 127M shares = [--] - 17% free float With only 6% AH bump [--] - 15% growth could come purely from passive fund flows" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964394500253728929) 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "6/9 : Speculation and further catalysts could also further fuel the gains for $HOOD Sep 9-10 : Investor Summit ⛰ Sep [--] : Monthly metrics release" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964394503277859055) 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "7/9 : Whilst $HOOD trades at around 50x P/E which is pricey - this could be justified as younger investors shift away from legacy brokers such as Schwab As money transfers down generations younger generations are more inclined to go with $HOOD" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964394505018216729) 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "8/9 : Bank of America predict that Gen Z will earn about $36 trillion in income by [----] Even if 0.1% comes $HOOD way in the forms of savings / banking / investing - or even gambling :) this is $360B - 4x its current market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964394506515529798) 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Pretty bearish on Chipotle $CMG. Its revenue is decreasing QoQ whilst it is opening stores and ramping up prices. $CMG is trading at at 36x P/E vs $MCD which is 26x. Gone are the days where it is reasonable to spend [--] bucks on a burrito.🌯" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964783409068400916) 2025-09-07T20:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$HOOD monthly metrics remain fairly flat however overall assets on the platform jumped a small amount. Eventual rate cuts in September should see increasing liquidity for this month - plus banking on $HOOD would be massive for revenue growth. It all looks promising" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1966235127455101006) 2025-09-11T20:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Pretty bullish on $FSLR in the social sector. With all this AI hyperscaler infrastructure being built somethings got to power it. Plus $FSLR avoids all tariffs since it is all US made and built. Financials look good too. More to come" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1966589249513304524) 2025-09-12T19:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$HOOD offering interest rates at 3.75% vs FED base rate of 4% following yesterdays cuts. I think this either means they are pricing in a further cut in December or its just another way $HOOD is making money" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968673553609318611) 2025-09-18T13:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Little Thread on China vs USA in the AI space and how this could play out:" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725357613171193) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "1/ There is no Intel vs TSMC. Its America vs China. The prize is Taiwan" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725360377282858) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Theyre building [--] new plants in Ohio that will each cover over [----] acres" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725367780147361) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "4/ Its not that Intel is trying. They have to. Its a hedge against the very real possibility of a Taiwan invasion" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725370783281496) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "5/ Russia already showed us: the US + NATO dont directly intervene militarily against countries with nukes. And vice versa" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725373488619728) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "6/ That means Taiwan being attacked is a real possibility. If that happens there goes TSMC" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725376080732418) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "7/ The US stepped in on Intel not because they hope it will beat TSMC but because Intel is critical to US national interest" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725379910136125) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "8/ You think China wants Taiwan for beach front property No. When they move in its for the critical infrastructure the chips that make the world function" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725383559118978) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "9/ Ukraine is about soil and agriculture. The greatest farming soil on earth" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725387019440289) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "10/ Taiwan Who makes the most important chips on earth" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725390353949072) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "11/ The US stepped in on Intel not because they hope it will beat TSMC but because Intel is critical to US national interest" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725394179117175) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "12/ Why do you think Nvidia and Broadcom have already had preliminary talks with Intel" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725397547131104) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "13/ I guarantee those new Ohio plants will have space for one or both of them. To reduce dependence. To secure supply" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725400810344736) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "14/ So if China does invade Taiwan the whole AI space will crash but Intel will be the best bet moving forwards" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968725403926761630) 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Social Arb Idea: Tencent Holdings: Clash Royale is booming at the moment. Every single pal I know is playing it. Whilst it makes up a small amount of Tencent it could get the ball rolling ahead of earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1968736487119204785) 2025-09-18T17:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@EddieJones26905 @EddieJones26905 Done a decent amount of research into earnings reports / earnings calls and PF2 200MW lease to hyperscaler seems to be a bit catalyst short term. Have u got any more info on who it is / time horizon. On earnings call it said near short term" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1977368426705252371) 2025-10-12T13:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "10/12: 🚀 OpenAIs growth is staggering: Valuation: $500B (2025) Projected revenue 2025: $12.7B (243% YoY) A stake in OpenAI brings $MSFT huge potential growth - especially if OpenAI becomes a near trillion dollar company" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960459694415151357) 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "11/12:💡 If OpenAI delivers it would essentially transfer $130B revenue to Microsoft in [----] $MSFTs total revenue could jump from $282B $412B 💥 Thats a 46% YoY increase Driven by AI & Azure dominance ☁🤖 In turn this could drive MSFT stock price upwards of 25% higher" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960459698349728068) 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$GRPO GOPRO Thread 🧵1/13 : Why GoPro could 10x - 100x as a humanoid and AI data play" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800807973982334) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "3/13 : 🤖 Why this matters: Humanoid robots need to learn motor skills + edge cases from real human perspective. Lab simulations & synthetic data cant capture this. $GRPRO POV dataset is scarce unique and perfect for training embodied AI" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800816257745255) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "4/13 : $GRPO Go Pro's footage is also unique in itself First-person format = perfect for robots. Millions of devices sold continuous new footage. User base already happy to share videos. Add rev-share Users will upload even more. This is a flywheel" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800823849467989) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "5/13 : This could generate massive revenue potential for $GRPO AI companies are paying millions for high-quality datasets. As a base asset $GRPO has [---] PB of Content Assuming $50 - $200 per PB of data to train humanoids (pretty conservative) : 450PB x $100 = $45B" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800831797662183) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "6/13 : This is all baseline potential licensing revenue which is all from their vault of data. Some of this data is not POV but even in a worst case scenario this is 10% which still gives $GRPO $4.5B" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800838282305862) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "7/13 : The User Participation Model also makes it attractive as users can opt-in to license their content giving them a 50/50 rev share over their content with $GRPO" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800840601551065) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "8/13 : Assuming 10% of users opt-in (250k users) and the average user creates 50GB per year = 12.5PB fresh content a year that $GRPO can sell to humanoid companies training robots" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800842866413606) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "9/13 : In [--] year if $GRPO monetizes even 10% of new uploads = $1B dataset value potential - even at the low end of $80/TB Considering $GRPO made $800 million in [----] this almost doubles its revenue Stock price = $3.8 even if P/S multiples remain the same" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800849996738670) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "12/13 : ⚠Ultimately there are always risks: AI labs may prefer synthetic data. Legal/licensing infrastructure needed for user content. Execution risk in pivoting away from just cameras" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800877737898156) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "13/13 : Right now I am extremely bullish on $GRPO and waiting to see how the stock builds traction ahead of news" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1960800909014732901) 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Luckin Coffee $LKNCY has just opened its 4th place in the US. Considering it is larger than $SBUX in Asia and serves coffee for [--] bucks its definitely something to look out for" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/1964420985672909039) 2025-09-06T20:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "New Deep Dive on $APP AppLovin on Substack here : @mathlonning https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-deep-diver=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-deep-diver=wlb8l" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2006492429105676713) 2025-12-31T22:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@bdinvestingg I think $NU has more upside than $MELI over the next [--] - [--] months. $MELI trades at [---] - 1.8x higher P/E compared to $NU. Then again they are both great companies I just see more upside in $NU since it is cheaper" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2006828367178522964) 2026-01-01T20:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@RahulSetty_ $FOUR is too cheap at these prices for a company performing well" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007024384264020444) 2026-01-02T09:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "PayPal $PYPL processes $1.7 trillion annually has [---] million accounts generates $7 billion in EBITDA - and trades at 8x earnings. Cheaper than most regional banks. The stock is down 80% from [----] highs because everyone's worried about Apple Pay eating their lunch. Fair concern. But at current prices the market is treating PayPal like a dying business. I don't see that in the numbers. The bear case is simple: Apple Pay is seamless on iPhones PayPal requires more clicks user growth has flatlined at 1%. All true. But here's what the market is missing - transaction margin dollars (the metric" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007171439682560329) 2026-01-02T19:25Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@PronkDaniel I am thinking of initiating a position into $FOUR. Its just too undervalued for current prices" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007191948927664358) 2026-01-02T20:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$APP - NORTHBEAM data is noise Conversion rate down 5.9% ROAS up only 3.13% (weakest of the major platforms) Budget share at just 2.89% Share change down 17.23% week-over-week Meanwhile Meta dominated with 64.6% budget share and ROAS up 16.3%. Google held steady. TikTok's ROAS jumped 18.6%. Why This Is Noise [--]. This is one week of data during the post-holiday hangover Dec 22-28 is literally the deadest week in advertising. Brands have blown their budgets on Black Friday/Cyber Monday and are coasting into New Year. Drawing conclusions from this week is like judging a restaurant by how busy it" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007194771173912630) 2026-01-02T20:58Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Why This Is Noise [--]. This is one week of data during the post-holiday hangover Dec 22-28 is literally the deadest week in advertising. Brands have blown their budgets on Black Friday/Cyber Monday and are coasting into New Year. Drawing conclusions from this week is like judging a restaurant by how busy it is on Christmas Day. [--]. AppLovin's e-commerce push is still early innings Remember AppLovin only opened their e-commerce advertising pilot widely in late [----]. They lowered minimum spend requirements to $10M annual revenue just months ago. At 2.89% budget share they're still a rounding error" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007201408664383705) 2026-01-02T21:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I think at 8X earnings $PYPL is seriously undervalued considering the stock has been beaten down the last few years. Yes $PYPL will struggle to overtake things like Apple pay $AAPL but with transaction margin dollars (the metric that actually matters growing at at [--] - 7% last quarter coupled with a new CEO I think $PYPL could be a turn around play and its 40% undervalued at these prices. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007475685464363072 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007475685464363072" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007475685464363072) 2026-01-03T15:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Full Deep Dive into PayPal $PYPL is now up on my Substack link here 🟧 : - [----] is likely to be defined by valuation discipline with successful investors focusing on pricing companies correctly rather than chasing AI-driven enthusiasm in already expensive stocks. This creates an opportunity for value investing as some strong businesses like PayPal appear overly punished despite solid fundamentals. https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/full-deep-dive-into-paypal-pyplr=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/full-deep-dive-into-paypal-pyplr=wlb8l" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007523626258509980) 2026-01-03T18:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The market still thinks of Amazon $AMZN as a retailer with a cloud business. I think that's backwards. Amazon is an AI infrastructure company with the largest real world automation laboratory on the planet. At $226 the stock is priced on current earnings. I think it should be priced on where AI and automation take this business over the next five years. Start with AWS. Q3 revenue hit $33 billion up 20% year over year. That's the highest growth rate in [--] quarters on a $132 billion annualized run rate. Backlog grew to $200 billion and October deal volume alone exceeded all of Q3. This isn't" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007560777213923670) 2026-01-03T21:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Futurenvesting Market thinks its acquisition model spreads the company too thinly and so gives it a low multiple. As such $FOUR has a much lower multiple than $TOST which is a pure play name in the sector. I think $FOUR is [--] percent undervalued currently" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2007775929805009159) 2026-01-04T11:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Big fan of your research on $ACMR - just bought a small amount [--] percent after looking into it myself. May increase with more research" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008284765586125206) 2026-01-05T21:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Feels like the whole AI sector is just far too expensive and $ACMR seems undervalued when the whole market has no idea about its Shanghai stake" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008289756061274321) 2026-01-05T21:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$APP down 6% today - Share price slipped below the [---] mark. If it goes down any further may have to initiate a position" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008584820159664268) 2026-01-06T17:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "MindMed is developing MM120 a pharmaceutical-grade LSD for anxiety and depression. I came across this idea in a @AndreasSteno Realvision report so thought I would take the idea to town seen as I think this is a sector with little traction and a lot of upside The thesis is simple: current treatments are daily pills that take weeks to work and fail half of patients. MM120 is one dose given once in a clinic providing relief lasting months. In Phase [--] trials published in JAMA 48% of severe anxiety patients hit complete remission from a single treatment more than double the efficacy of existing" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008613182030696814) 2026-01-06T18:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@EddieJones26905 How do you know about this Qanta contract- cant find it anywhere. Regardless $BE is set up for a re rating in 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008944896451997995) 2026-01-07T16:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mathlonning Nice to see some green heading into JPM conference. Feels like $TMDX has gone sideways for far too long" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2008950102011072870) 2026-01-07T17:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Just released my Spread Sheet on Substack here: It will show Portfolio allocation and returns along with daily market thoughts Main holdings so far $BE $APP $ACMR $NKTR $TMDX $MNMD $BMNR https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/spread-sheet-trackerr=wlb8l&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/spread-sheet-trackerr=wlb8l&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009061962945282490) 2026-01-08T00:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Portfolio Update : Currently up 18.5% YTD. Not bad for [--] days Core longs remain in order of size remain $BE $TMDX $BMNR $ACMR $NKTR $MNMD Positions that I am watching for right price entry - $APP $TE $ALAB $CRDO $EVLV $NU $ONDS $SYM I feel as if everything in tech or just AI in general is just trading at a silly premium so no point buying them right now. It feels odd to sit back at the sidelines and watch the macro thematic stocks take off with Trump at the reigns without taking any positions. Then again half these companies are trading at premiums with no fundamentals only backed by a" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009411240641118491) 2026-01-08T23:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I think there is little to no downside and only upside of holding $TMDX into the JPM press conference on the 12th. Its been good to see the stock rally along with flight data at the start of [----]. I think it is underappreciated how much the stock price is correlated with flight data which is probably why it has gone sideways since August. Been averaging around [--] + ish flights for the last few weeks and so $TMDX is up 12% YTD. I think there are a few questions that we would like to be seen answered at this JPM press conference 1) Will they actually give any [----] guidance 2) Do we get an" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009750026646679921) 2026-01-09T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ChrisCamillo Already sold 1.1GW of their 2GW capacity for [----] in [--] days. I think demand will be reflected for Q4 earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009758295012122942) 2026-01-09T22:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Since I recently bought a position in $ACMR at the start of [----] it is already up 20% YTD. I thought I would give some thoughts about it ahead of the company releasing full-year [----] preliminary revenue range and initial [----] revenue outlook on the 22nd. I think the main outcome of this will be a re rating of $ACMR. $ACMR owns 74.6% of ACM Shanghai which trades on Chinas STAR Market at a market cap of $13.1B whilst $ACMR trades on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $3.4B. This represents a 68% discount but also ACM Shanghai is the moat because it is domestically integrated with China and so is" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009772667373506967) 2026-01-09T23:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Just bought a small position in $PYPL - less than 5% allocation. PayPal trades at just 8x free cash flow a valuation typically reserved for businesses in terminal decline. Yet the fundamentals tell a different story: transaction margin dollars grew 6-7% last quarter operating margins expanded to 18.1% and net margins jumped to 14.8%. The company generates nearly $2 billion in cash quarterly and just initiated its first dividend hardly the behavior of a company fighting for survival. For context Block trades at nearly double PayPal's multiple while losing money and Adyen commands 5x PayPal's" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2010756304227483854) 2026-01-12T16:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "yeah seems odd that it is down 5% today even with objectively bullish China news of domestic equipment share hitting 35% in [----] vs 25% in [----]. Along with new 50% + domestic sourcing requirements for fab expansions. Just shows how much market doesn't appreciate that Shanghai is the moat and so $ACMR only benefits from this news taking market share away from companies like $AMAT. I didn't add however :( - already makes up 12% of my book https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011195676806299853 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011195676806299853" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2011195676806299853) 2026-01-13T21:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Thought I would give some short thoughts on Bloom Energy since it is my largest position at 25% allocation and the stock is up 62% in the last month. They crushed Q3 earnings: revenue came in at $519M vs $421M expected (23% beat) EPS hit $0.15 vs $0.10 (50% beat) and gross margins expanded [---] bps YoY to 30.4%. They're shipping product margins are inflecting and the backlog keeps growing with AEP's $2.65B deal the Wyoming 900MW project approval and Brookfield's $5B partnership. They have sold 1.1GW out of their 2GW of power for [----] and it's only halfway through January. I think all of this" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2011889662881661383) 2026-01-15T19:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "As an investor my job is to observe what's happening and try to stay one or two steps ahead of the market - not three or four. Right now there's a lot happening. I want to walk through how I'm thinking about the current macro setup and why I'm positioned the way I am. Trump announced new tariffs on Denmark Norway Sweden France Germany the UK the Netherlands and Finland starting at 10% on February 1st and escalating to 25% by June 1st. The explicit goal is to pressure Europe into accepting US acquisition of Greenland. Why does Greenland matter The US already has Pituffik Space Base there for" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013244821817696411) 2026-01-19T13:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I really do think Gold will rip again this year. Gold loves volatility. Midterms high valuations and Geopolitics will likely create instability this year. I like the company $NEM for this year. It will be my next deep dive. Tomorrow will be the start of my daily newsletter on Substack. More of this will be covered then. https://jonathankay33.substack.com https://jonathankay33.substack.com" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013383306558026095) 2026-01-19T22:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Whilst I think this is political fear I also think it is a sign that there is more volatility to come. Ultimately Trump is never going to let the markets slip as midterms are on the horizon. Having said that the rising wealth gap also creates issues. Young people these days feel like modern day capitalism let them down. Their parents were able to buy houses for $100k that are now worth $1M. As such a bunch of these people are turning left. I think this creates volatility heading in to the midterms. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013557532778713182" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013557532778713182) 2026-01-20T10:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I think the key thing to come from all of this is that the midterms will create uncertainty and volatility. Young people feel as if modern capitalism has let them down. Their parents were able to buy houses for $100k which are now worth $1M. Meanwhile young people are feeling crushed by inflation. As such I think a lot of them are turning left for this very reason. Gold should do well this year IMO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013558270825234648 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013558270825234648" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013558270825234648) 2026-01-20T10:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ProblemSniper Sort of agree. Markets don't like high growth tech with high valuations in time of stability. Having said this nothing in the underlying business has changed. All of these short reports are pure noise. I think Q4 earnings proves this all wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013572218903531750) 2026-01-20T11:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Just bought a small position in $AVAV. This stop work order on the BADGER systems for the SCAR program is noise. They are literally just "negotiating an amended for the future of the SCAR program under a firm - fixed price agreement. "The company expects to continue to deliver capabilites and products for the SCAR program". I think $AVAV rallies when people actually do their homework and don't just listen to the headlines https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013714191450808719 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013714191450808719" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013714191450808719) 2026-01-20T20:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "ACM Research releases preliminary [----] revenue guidance this week on Thursday with management guiding $875M to $925M. However I wouldnt be surprised to see this come in closer to $1B given several Q4 tailwinds: the first panel-level packaging tool ships this quarter with management highlighting strong interest from China Taiwan and US customers; advanced packaging revenue already up 231% YoY to $27.7M in Q3; deferred shipments from Q3 now hitting Q4; and the first KrF track system delivery opening a new product category. On margins while management reiterated their 42-48% target model and" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013715838637908227) 2026-01-20T20:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "With Canada annoucing 5% of GDP going to defense including $2B + specifically for drones I really like DPRO. Due to the tariff war Canada has an explicit buy Canadian policy. Draganfly is the ONLY native Canadian drone manufacturer. CEO: There might be two companies in the whole country that can address that market and the other company only has one particular type of drone. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013746798590894374 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013746798590894374" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013746798590894374) 2026-01-20T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I think you are highly naive to what is going on currently in the US. Trump believes the future of the US hinges on whether they can role out full scale AGI before China. This is why he thinks Greenland is essential for national security because it is abundantly full of natural resources that the US needs for AGI. Moreover the US is in a genuine debt crisis fuelled by the decoupling from China. China is selling US treasuries every month and so has halved this value from $1.2T to $688B. This is because the less amount of US reserves China has the less leverage the US has over them in the event" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013766328889249955) 2026-01-21T00:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Yes things are never as bad as they seem. For the next few months or so this is probably just noise. But I dont get how you cant see the US slowly decoupling from China through the Greenland situation. As for Europe I dont know for now. As for the youth yes they are ungrateful losers. Its not that capitalism doesnt work for the youth its that the youth feels as if it doesnt work for them because they are no longer willing to chase the American dream. Look I dont think any of this has any effect on investing in high growth names for now its just something to have in mind Apologies for the" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013770974374584821) 2026-01-21T00:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@accounting_ds Yeh always good to hear both sides" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013772642289852423) 2026-01-21T00:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@accounting_ds Obviously you have done a hell of a lot more research into $TE than I have and congrats on the run that it has had over the last [--] months. How much more upside do you think it will have in [----] and do you reckon now is the right time to take a postion" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013988777899798677) 2026-01-21T14:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@accounting_ds Yeah we have all seen the DCF model over the next year pricing it well above $20. Just feels volatile at the moment" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013990067954487631) 2026-01-21T15:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@accounting_ds Yeah Im sitting on 25% cash. Feels like all my positions are immune to tariffs and all that jazz but can still trade down just on market reactions. $TE obviously does well in these environments" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013991289100902601) 2026-01-21T15:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@accounting_ds Agreed" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013992479746371640) 2026-01-21T15:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "FFS why has $TE rebounded from -5% pre market to flat. Was gonna buy some at those prices" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2014321542256021830) 2026-01-22T12:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Just found about a backdoor play on $ASTS through $VOD on X. Seems really interesting considering leaps are dirt cheap for $VOD. Havent done my homework yet but will post the real thesis at some point tomorrow or weekend latest" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2014469230003892302) 2026-01-22T22:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@steve_platz Yeah apologies literally just checked this now. Will change. Was doing calculations based on market cap and stock price pre market so was skewed. Cheers for pointing this out" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015804914039980094) 2026-01-26T15:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Here are some of my own thoughts as I am long "sell US for [----] and think this is just the start 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement now gets more funding than the combined budgets of all" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015844784447926338) 2026-01-26T17:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Ok firstly they say in their earnings call they are getting at least 0.5oz / panel of silver so I am not sure behind the increase from $200 - $250. I am merely modelling what management is saying. Secondly I am a simple observer of what is going around. I don't like to take one side or the other politically. I am in the middle observing what is going around me and trying to be [--] - [--] steps ahead of the market. Yes Trump will try to goose the markets ahead of elections. But this all comes down to the fundamental problem of the Wealth Gap in the USA. Also with the massive operating losses this" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015850076871307702) 2026-01-26T18:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Haha. Look you can have your opinion and I can have mine. We will speak macro at the end of [----] once it has all played out and see who won. At the end of the day we are probably both going to do well as investors in $LODE. I just like to have a macro hedge going into [----] ahead of volatility https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015851609796772197) 2026-01-26T18:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "New Mini Deep Dive into Coupang $CPNG. One of my pals (who is invested in $CPNG) sent me a few posts on X from @JonahLupton who had written a bit about $CPNG. I am pretty sure he is one of the fair few that has actually broken down the narrative with $CPNG - so credit goes to him. I just thought I would do my own research as I hate buying things I don't fully understand. https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/coupang-mini-deep-dive-nyse-cpngr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017700327923884136) 2026-01-31T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Just posted my full Deep Dive into $ACMR and why it is 68% undervalued compared to its staked assets : FYI I have a 12% position and may add more depending on pullbacks https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2010793167873028594) 2026-01-12T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$ACMR down 5% today despite objectively bullish China news: domestic equipment share hit 35% in [----] (vs 25% in 2024) with new 50%+ domestic sourcing requirements for fab expansions. ACM Shanghai is classified as a domestic supplier meaning ACMR benefits from localization alongside NAURA/AMEC taking share from $AMAT/ $LRCX / $TEL. Selloff looks like noise ahead of Jan [--] guidance rather than fundamental deterioration. The China equipment substitution wave is a tailwind not a headwind. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2011103692338954426) 2026-01-13T15:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Thinking off doing the same but $ACMR is up 4.5% pre market 🤦" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2011784831131165058) 2026-01-15T12:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "January Update : Currently up 22% YTD. Core positions remain : $BE $TMDX $ACMR $APP Full January Investment Newsletter now up on my Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2012228820032434185) 2026-01-16T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Apologies I have been away for the weekend so have not been active on socials. One of my next deep dives will be on Comstock $LODE. Currently I am modelling the stock price based off forward guidance for management surrounding their new state of the art solar recycling facilities that can process 100k tons or 3.3M solar panels a year. Management states that they could be processing 200k tons a year by [----]. Considering silver prices are sky high - and I see them going higher as the sell US trade matures I think $LODE could be a [--] - [--] bagger over the next few years. FYI this model does not" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015805212305342657) 2026-01-26T15:13Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@DonnoShid Its hard to tell in what time horizon Bioleum will IPO. Management reckons [--] - [--] years. Either way its a great piece on information the market probably doesnt appreciate" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015820098515218926) 2026-01-26T16:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah would make it so much more clearer if we actually knew in concrete what the deal they get on the silver and other minerals. Hopefully this gets brought up on the next earnings call. These are the numbers that I got when I put $250/Ton in. I still don't own a position as the risk/reward probably isn't there until it becomes clearer with what the gig is with silver" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2016466805691121894) 2026-01-28T11:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Day [--] of The Kay Letter is now out on Substack : Topics discussed : 1) Greenland and Geopolitics 2) My positions and why they are unaffected 3) Short report on $APP and why it is noise 4) Why $ACMR is going to crush revenue guidance on Thursday 5) Why [----] will be the year for Gold https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2013572923869606235) 2026-01-20T11:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just to let everyone know $ACMR is one of the very few sell US trades that has exposure to AI" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015817037784727629) 2026-01-26T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This well and truly hits the nail on the head @RayDalio. Thought I would elaborate on this a touch more because I think [----] is the year for "sell US". 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015835037439000913) 2026-01-26T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ok so here is what it would look like with your numbers. I think [----] is a "sell US trade" as volatility corruption and other tensions occur. As such investors will seek hard assets in times like these. I recently reposted an Article today on Ray Dalio's thoughts surrounding the US. I also outlined mine in this post so feel free to read that as well since all my "sell US" thoughts are outlined in there as well. Also management said they are getting 60% spot rev prices on silver in earnings call - not sure whether you want to be conservative at 50% but I am just going to go with what" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2015844220641411213) 2026-01-26T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Sk hynix is the largest customer and they smoked earnings 👀👀" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017246933455130879) 2026-01-30T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Would be odd though if $ACMR crushed earnings as well despite conservative [----] full year guidance only a week or so ago" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017249929480057275) 2026-01-30T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@thexcapitalist If $BE wobbles off this I will buy" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2018320683411833328) 2026-02-02T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts though when they actually ramp up supply to meet demand and prices fall Yes this seems like a negative thing to say for someone who missed the memory cycle but just curious" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2018369983714083009) 2026-02-02T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I still think $BE will do great in their Q4 earnings tomorrow. They literally sold 50% of their 2GW capacity within [--] days of [----]. I think it is pretty obvious that demand is there. For now the stock is down 20% today. Guess that is momentum trading for you. I will probably size up a position to hold through earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019108900075692286) 2026-02-04T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For now I am 50% in cash. Waiting to add to the ideas that I like. $BE $TE $NBIS $ACMR $APP" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019109578223517908) 2026-02-04T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BE reports earnings today. Will be doing a full write up later" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019381128348725666) 2026-02-05T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BE reports earnings tonight. Revenue is expected to be $646.84M and EPS is expected to be $0.24. $BE managed to sell 1.1GW out of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] starting. I think this makes it pretty clear that demand is there and that $BE will likely sell its entire GW capacity in [----]. I believe this should start to show up in earnings tonight for $BE. Normally I would be leveraged through earnings. However with the current fear and chaos around the AI trade especially after AMDs slowing guidance I am concerned that unless $BE beats expectations by more than [--] percent and" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019415272336003558) 2026-02-05T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "What did I say. A company is clearly doing well if they can sell over 50% of their yearly capacity in [--] days of [----]. $BE" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019522890941825431) 2026-02-05T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Will publish a full $BE earnings writeup at either some point tomorrow or the weekend on Substack" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019523649997549915) 2026-02-05T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@celestial4104 @ContrarianCurse I just listened the earnings call. It almost felt like they couldn't give long term guidance because demand is off the charts" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019553439873921365) 2026-02-05T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@benitoz so damn bullish. I am buying more if its flat pre market" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019553885602607146) 2026-02-05T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ContrarianCurse $BE" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019555156229255582) 2026-02-05T23:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "BLOOM ENERGY $BE Q4 FULL EARNINGS WRITEUP NOW LIVE ON MY SUBSTACK LINK BELOW : - https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019779404977606809) 2026-02-06T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought roughly 25% of my book in the $90s sold 80% at $174 when the stock hit all time highs and later bought back at $135 after the pullback to $136. I sold initially because I was up 88% in [--] weeks and BE is a high beta name where momentum can reverse quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781789942792277) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2/ The earnings setup was strong. Bloom sold 1.1GW of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] which clearly signals demand. At the same time the AI trade is energy constrained and Bloom demonstrated speed to power by supplying a full Oracle data center in [--] days versus [--] days guided. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781792144797952) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Another key takeaway from the call was that Blooms fuel cell technology can reduce electricity usage by at least 20%. For hyperscalers operating on roughly 2025% margins that level of cost reduction is highly meaningful and directly supports demand" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781794208379103) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/ I avoided options into Q4 earnings despite high conviction. Premiums were elevated due to volatility and the market had been punishing even strong prints as seen with Google selling off despite beating across metrics. Instead I increased my equity exposure at $135" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781796087406641) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ Stepping back my main conclusion from the earnings call is that guidance does not reflect what is actually happening on the ground. Management sounded constrained in giving long term guidance because demand is accelerating too quickly to confidently forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781798004220173) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "13/ Using analyst cost estimates and Blooms margin profile full 2GW deployment could support $1012B of revenue depending on pricing assumptions. Under both higher and lower pricing scenarios current guidance implies only 2731% utilization" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781813397299390) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "14/ Even a moderate utilization case suggests upside. At 65% utilization and $4500/kW pricing total revenue could approach $6B in [----] versus $3.2B guided. Combined with operating leverage EBITDA growth would materially outpace revenue growth" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781815389630718) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "With $ACMR hitting all-time highs about ten minutes ago and earnings right around the corner it felt like the right time to get into the numbers and form some conclusions for [----]. Starting with revenue the midpoint of managements [----] guidance is $1.1275B. I expect gross margins in [----] to come in around 46% to 48% up from the 42% reported in Q3. Management explicitly stated that there were two main drivers behind the lower margins. First there was a [---] basis point hit from product mix due to higher sales of smaller front-end tools. Second there was a [---] basis point hit from inventory" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017342715009351796) 2026-01-30T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Right so I was trying to model the stock price of $ACMR and it jumped 4% in the space of about [--] mins haha" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017343488539394114) 2026-01-30T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Finished the month of January up 15%. Main positions remain $BE $ACMR Smaller positions $APP $TE $DFTX $NKTR Hedges $NEM Would of been a great month had I not decided to punt in $BMNR as a leveraged play on crypto bottoming out Hey ho I guess there is a lesson in that in itself - was stupid in heinsight Looking forward to Feb - especially since lot of my positions report earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2017357209261265278) 2026-01-30T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bloom Energy $BE Q4 Earnings Thread 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781788076269876) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "15/ At $152 pre market the stock is already pricing in a significant beat. I rebought at $136 but will likely trim around current levels not due to lack of conviction but because the risk reward is less attractive after the move. The core question remains whether Bloom delivers a modest beat or something far larger than guidance implies" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781817625088292) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "FULL $BE Q4 EARNINGS WRITEUP ON MY SUBSTACK BELOW : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019781819789357519) 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ok so Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought a large position around 25% of my book in the $90 range and sold 80% of my position the other day when the stock hit all time highs at http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969 http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019808546548752839) 2026-02-06T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sold a large chunk of the $BE I bought pre earnings for 15% gain. Currently up 33% YTD and 40% in cash" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019809461385429338) 2026-02-06T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Its hard to think that companies like $TE and $BE won't do well over the next [--] - [--] months. All this capex has to go somewhere and it is going to go where the bottlenecks are. Energy has been clearly defined" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019909216283009114) 2026-02-06T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Claude Opus [---] is beyond good. Makes ChatGPT look like a silly chatbot" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2020495981264109618) 2026-02-08T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "My thesis for [----] is finding companies trading at attractive valuations with strong fundamentals in an otherwise expensive market. Reddit fits that profile. At $141 the company trades at 18-19x forward EV/EBITDA while growing EBITDA at 80-90% year-over-year. Most peers growing a fraction of that rate trade at comparable or higher multiples. Q4 delivered revenue of $726 million up 70% YoY. But the key metric is EBITDA: $327 million up 112% YoY with a 45% margin. Revenue doubled in FY25 but EBITDA more than doubled. Incremental EBITDA margin was 60% meaning $0.60 of every revenue dollar" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021264511831834843) 2026-02-10T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Little bitter that I missed the boat on $CRDO when it hit $96 a week ago amidst market selloff and fears that Photonics would take away market share. Yesterday they announced third quarter fiscal year [----] revenue in the range of $404 million to $408 million above the high-end of Credos previously announced third quarter guidance range of $335 million and $345 million. $CRDO is increasing revenue 50% QoQ which is mental. I am yet to do my full research into the valuation of the company over the next few years but just from this upside alone $CRDO looks nice." [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021275188373930402) 2026-02-10T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$RDDT ended the day up 6%. I think the market is slowly starting to realize that a company growing revenue and EBITDA 70% yoy valued at [--] - 19x EV/EBITDA is quite a nice valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021361955852955779) 2026-02-10T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@aleabitoreddit Doing the math EBITDA is growing [--] - 90% yoy. I think $RDDT does $1.5B of EBITDA in [----] which means it trades at a value under 20x NTM EBITDA. To me $RDDT is easily [--] - 50% undervalued at these prices. Also I think $RDDT is immune to AI as its platform is so community based" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021362758097436924) 2026-02-10T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I don't know why anyone would want to buy any SaaS stocks when $RDDT is out there. Not a single stock is growing revenue 70% yoy and trades at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. The idea that they are beaten down on the assumption that AI will replace them is fair to a degree. But $RDDT is so community based that AI simply can't replace this. I have a 4% position in $RDDT but will be looking to scale it up to 10% in the near future as I really like the risk reward at these prices https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021363715371635172) 2026-02-10T23:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LogicalThesis Buy $RDDT instead. $RDDT is growing revenues at 70% yoy and EBITDA at [--] - 90% yoy. At these prices $RDDT is valued at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. I think there is much better risk reward than any software stocks out there growing revenues at 30% yoy at best" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021370103519117717) 2026-02-10T23:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Nietschecapital They will soon catch up. This is the edge anyway for our thesis on $APP $RDDT" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021626494708281675) 2026-02-11T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Been hearing on X that there is some potential for a data center deal soon. Dont know if I fully believe this. Still havnt read into it properly and not familiar with $WBI" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2009006135400116409) 2026-01-07T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "January Update: Currently up 22% YTD which is pretty decent. Core main positions remain $BE $TMDX $ACMR January Investment Newsletter on my Substack below https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2012227832710139908) 2026-01-16T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Latest Deep Dive into $NEM as a leveraged play on Gold in [----]. Short Summary : When empires fracture gold wins. I believe we are seeing the cracks open in the US system. This is not a typical gold mining analysis but a leveraged thesis on the unravelling of the post-WW2 order and how to position for it. Newmont Corporation $NEM is the world's largest gold miner. It offers leveraged exposure to the single greatest hedge against institutional breakdown. With $38T in federal debt interest payments consuming ever larger chunks of revenue and central banks globally dumping Treasuries while" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2016489310095085882) 2026-01-28T12:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "January Reflection now out on my Substack : Excel Spreedsheet Tracker here - Main positions still remain $BE $ACMR $NEM Smaller positions $TE $APP $DFTX $NKTR https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-reflectionr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2017724334328967640) 2026-01-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sold a decent chunk of my book yesterday amidst euphoria. 1) Sold my $ACMR call options for 110% gain 2) Sold 75% of my $BE for 88% gain Currently up 37% YTD" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019066224777302437) 2026-02-04T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With $AMD bringing the whole AI trade lower $NBIS at $83 and $CRDO at $100 look quite nice" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019073544328532136) 2026-02-04T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just because I sold out of all my $ACMR does not mean I no longer think it is a great idea for [----]. My price target for $ACMR is $89 and yesterday when it hit $64 briefly I decided to take the gains in my call options and run. Your job as an investor is to make the number on your screen go up. Today is literally living proof that the market can go down as fast as it goes up https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019109427974897682) 2026-02-04T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I think just general price action. I sold all my $ACMR options for 110% gain when it hit [--] briefly. I have done really well (35% YTD) and with all the political volatility on the horizon it felt greedy to hold on to them and not take my winnings. I am going to wait a little longer but still keen to run $ACMR again through earnings as I think they will surprise the market on margins. I also think that with China rapidly expanding wafer production to H2 [----] I expect guidance to be good as well. For now though the market is a bloodbath and I am sitting on 50% cash" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019487799754244404) 2026-02-05T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah $BE is one of my largest positions. However when doing the math the guidance seemed a little conservative. $BE sold 1.1GW out of their 2GW capacity for [----] by Jan 8th. They were able to provide power to an oracle data center within [--] days. I think it is pretty obvious they will sell close to all their capacity in [----]. At 2GW capacity management say revenues will be 4x that of the FY [----] revenues. FY2025 rev was $2B. 4x that is $8B. Management guided $3.1 - $3.3B for [----] - $4.8B less than if they actually were to run at full capacity for [----]. Management also were explicit that "they" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019796607525691423) 2026-02-06T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Here is much current portfolio allocation : Currently up 33.2% YTD with 39.6% Cash Really liking the look of Solar at the moment $TE $TOYO off the bat of the enormous Capex projections from $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2019819524661604717) 2026-02-06T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@zephyr_z9 $ACMR should do well of this. Considering they have just started shipping their advanced packaging products and this segment is growing 231% YoY I think we get some good guidance from management on Feb 26th surrounding margins and market outlook" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021271203466318170) 2026-02-10T17:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just a small update regarding performance YTD. Currently up 38.6% YTD. Link to my portfolio here : FYI this is a new sheet that updates live when I plug new transactions so for now the transaction sheet is blank but I will update daily moving forwards. Ive transitioned out of the majority of my $BE post-earnings position purely because Ive made strong returns over the last five weeks and dont see the point in being greedy. Ill likely add back aggressively on any pullbacks but for now Im holding a smaller position. I sold all of my $ACMR call options the other week for a 100% gain and rotated" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021369016690876495) 2026-02-10T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just a small thought because I hold both $APP and $RDDT which have both sold off a bunch despite pretty damn good earnings. I think it is pretty clear to see that there is just no momentum in the market. $RDDT is being treated like its in the software bucket and $APP is trading below its 200DMA. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2021977098445893705) 2026-02-12T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mathlonning Yeah I am in a similar boat. Still up 27% YTD but with 18% cash. Bought a bunch more $APP and $TMDX though" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022038347431260537) 2026-02-12T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Im currently working on my $APP Q4 earnings write-up and wanted to share a few thoughts before posting it. Right now the market seems uncertain about what AppLovin really is. Is it just a gaming ad network or is it becoming a serious player in the broader e-commerce advertising space There are also concerns that $META could limit AppLovins ability to scale its e-commerce business. On the earnings call management pushed back on this idea arguing that increased competition actually strengthens their marketplace economics rather than weakens them. It feels like the market wants more proof in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022370282393006495) 2026-02-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1) After reviewing $APP Q4 earnings call its seems hard to believe that the stock sold off 20%+ and bottomed again around the $360 mark - down 47% YTD from a 52WH of $745. Whilst the market did rebound yesterday I still think $APP is extremely undervalued and misunderstood by most especially surrounding various forms of competition and what the company actually does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635239873417345) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2) Markets hate unknowns and $APP is a real reflection of that currently. APP is getting crushed because the market is unsure where the business sits in the world of gaming and e-commerce. If APP is just a gaming ad network then margins are likely to compress over time. But if MAX can scale in the world of e-commerce then APP is likely to be a winner. I have high conviction in the latter and I am going to explain why https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635241739854278) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3) The main elephant in the room is competition - specifically from $META. During the earnings call the vast majority of questions and debate were about the threat that $META poses to $APP. I think this speaks for itself and shows where peoples heads are at. The market thinks Meta poses a threat to AppLovin and so I think they want tangible proof that a player of Metas scale cant disrupt AppLovins growth in a new market. I think that we see management execute continuously quarter on quarter and so for the most part I think the market is getting this one wrong." [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635244122161200) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4) I think the market's confusion about competitive threats stems from the lack of understanding about $APP two-sided model. MAX = The Auction Platform : When you see an ad in a mobile game there is a split second auction. Meta Google Unity and APP all bid to show their ad. MAX RUNS the auction picks the highest bidder and takes 5% cut. MAX started in gaming apps and is now expanding into e-commerce apps. AXON [---] = AppLovins AI Bidder : This is AppLovins AI that COMPETES in MAX auctions bidding against Meta Google and others. APP owns the auction AND competes in the autctions. When Axon 2.-" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635246252961860) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5) When asked about CloudX entering mediation CEO Adam Foroughis response was blunt stating that : The moat around our mediation is not because of the mediation. We are very good. We have got the most bid density. In any mediation A or B test if you have talked to publishers you will hear MAX does better." The reality is that a new mediation platform would need to simultaneously achieve [--]. Higher Bid Density than MAX [--]. Better AI than Axon [---] [--]. Stronger publisher relationships I think this an extremely high bar and so I think there is no threat to MAX in the mediation business" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635248157065359) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "6) Investors worry Metas social data (knowing exactly who users are via FB and IG logins) gives them an insurmountable advantage over Axon 2.0s probabilistic model when bidding in MAX auctions. Managements counter argument has two parts: First it would violate Apples $APPL terms. Using internal social graph data to target opt-out users is explicitly against platform rules. Meta isn't going to risk their entire iOS relationship for incremental ad revenue. Second the competitive landscape has fundamentally changed. Investors are anchoring to historical data from [--] years ago when Meta dominated" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635250191368695) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "9) AppLovin has been targeted by multiple short sellers over the past year - Fuzzy Panda Culper Research Muddy Waters and most recently Capital Watch in January [----]. Short sellers are investors who bet against a stock profiting when it falls. They borrow shares sell them and hope to buy them back cheaper later. Every short report came from firms with disclosed positions meaning they profit directly if the stock falls. Notably Capital Watch withdrew their short report last week and announced they are now long APP. This is extremely unusual behavior - something I have never seen before." [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635257619476756) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TechEquityEng $RDDT is not a software stock. Prime example explaining why $RDDT trades down along with Software names" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022770420655505410) 2026-02-14T20:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Full $APP Q4 earnings writeup now up on my Substack : https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022440087217471721) 2026-02-13T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Detailed Thread regarding AppLovin's $APP Q4 Earnings and why the Market is getting this Wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022635237990371590) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7) In addition to this competition actually helps $APP. When more advertisers bid in MAX prices rise and publishers make more money. They reinvest that into user acquisition creating more inventory. APP collects 5% on all competitor wins so a higher bid density = more revenue Even when $APP does lose an auction inside MAX they still take a 5% cut on the winner. So $APP benefits regardless https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635252213063813) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "8) The underlying business is still remarkable Q4 [----] : Revenue: $1.66B (up 66% YoY) Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4B (up 82% YoY 84% margin) EBITDA margin expansion: 700+ basis points YoY Q/Q flow-through to EBITDA: 95% (nearly every incremental revenue dollar converted to earnings) Free cash flow: $1.31B (up 88% YoY) Cash balance: $2.5B Full Year [----] : Revenue: $5.48B (up 70%) EBITDA: $4.51B (up 87% 82% margin) Free cash flow: $3.95B (up 91%) As CFO Matt Stumpf noted investors often reference the Rule of [--] in software - the idea that revenue growth plus profit margin should exceed 40%. AppLovins" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635255081873717) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "15) I think APP conservatively grows EBITDA at 60% YoY throughout [----]. If they do 60% EBITDA growth YoY for [----] then APP should do at least $7B in EBITDA for [----]. At a price of $365 per share that means youre paying roughly 18x NTM EV/EBITDA for a company growing EBITDA 60% YoY. I think as well in the back half of [----] we should see acceleration as self-service general availability launches and e-commerce scales. The stock has fallen over 50% from its highs while the underlying business has actually improved and is growing. The company is buying $2.58B in stock annually with $3.3B in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022635271586525398) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "16) Full Writeup on Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635273415209069) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If anyone is bullish on $ACMR I would highly recommend giving this one a read. Essentially chips can't get any smaller and so Advanced Packaging is the way forward. $ACMR is growing its Advanced Packing sector at 231% YoY. Can't wait to see what that number is in earnings in a couple weeks time. https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022637304615960665) 2026-02-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NuttyCLD @Shakazulu117 $ACMR" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022637451391701216) 2026-02-14T11:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@crux_capital_ What are your opinions on $LITE vs $COHR vs $AAOI" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2023043033340780938) 2026-02-15T14:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@aleabitoreddit $CRDO" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2023045117901414743) 2026-02-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "January Reflection now out on my Substack : Excel Spreedsheet Tracker here - Main positions still remain $BE $ACMR $NEM Smaller positions $TE $APP $DFTX $NKTR https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-reflectionr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2017724334328967640) 2026-01-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If anyone is bullish on $ACMR I would highly recommend giving this one a read. Essentially chips can't get any smaller and so Advanced Packaging is the way forward. $ACMR is growing its Advanced Packing sector at 231% YoY. Can't wait to see what that number is in earnings in a couple weeks time. https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022637304615960665) 2026-02-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Part 1: The Era of Substrates The Empire of Sand Back onto Glass For the past half-century humanity has been obsessed with making things "smaller." That was the only way to pack more transistors onto a single chip. Shrinking transistors to 10nm 5nm and 3nm was http://x.com/i/article/2021901179622764548 http://x.com/i/article/2021901179622764548" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022282936603787765) 2026-02-13T12:13Z 10.5K followers, 382.6K engagements "Detailed Thread regarding AppLovin's $APP Q4 Earnings and why the Market is getting this Wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022635237990371590) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "15) I think APP conservatively grows EBITDA at 60% YoY throughout [----]. If they do 60% EBITDA growth YoY for [----] then APP should do at least $7B in EBITDA for [----]. At a price of $365 per share that means youre paying roughly 18x NTM EV/EBITDA for a company growing EBITDA 60% YoY. I think as well in the back half of [----] we should see acceleration as self-service general availability launches and e-commerce scales. The stock has fallen over 50% from its highs while the underlying business has actually improved and is growing. The company is buying $2.58B in stock annually with $3.3B in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022635271586525398) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "16) Full Writeup on Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022635273415209069) 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Full $APP Q4 earnings writeup now up on my Substack : https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/J0nathanKayy/status/2022440087217471721) 2026-02-13T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Im currently working on my $APP Q4 earnings write-up and wanted to share a few thoughts before posting it. Right now the market seems uncertain about what AppLovin really is. Is it just a gaming ad network or is it becoming a serious player in the broader e-commerce advertising space There are also concerns that $META could limit AppLovins ability to scale its e-commerce business. On the earnings call management pushed back on this idea arguing that increased competition actually strengthens their marketplace economics rather than weakens them. It feels like the market wants more proof in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022370282393006495) 2026-02-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@J0nathanKayy Jon Kay
Jon Kay posts on X about $acmr, $be, $app, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-----] -47%
- [--] Month [------] +137%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +4.70%
- [--] Month [--] +218%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [---] +5.90%
- [--] Month [---] +114%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance technology brands countries social networks cryptocurrencies travel destinations automotive brands
Social topic influence $acmr #8, $be #114, $app #105, in the, ai, applovin #112, $te #81, china, $grpo, market
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mathlonning @accountingds @aleabitoreddit @eddiejones26905 @jonahlupton @contrariancurse @bdinvestingg @rahulsetty @pronkdaniel @jonathankay933739 @futurenvesting @andreassteno @chriscamillo @problemsniper @steveplatz @donnoshid @raydalio @thexcapitalist @celestial4104 @benitoz
Top assets mentioned ACM Research, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ACMR) Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) AppLovin Corporation (APP) Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock (TMDX) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Newmont Corporation (NEM) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) NuCypher (NU) 4 (FOUR) BITMINE IMMERSION TECH (BMNR) Metadium (META) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"3/12: ☁ The deal also gave Microsoft exclusive access to OpenAIs models via Azure. Every GPT upgrade runs on MSFT cloud so each model iteration = more Azure spend now estimated at $10B/year run-rate"
X Link 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"4/12: ⚡ In April [----] SoftBank ($SFTBY) entered the mix investing $7.5B immediately and up to $30B conditionally if OpenAI restructures into a public benefit corporation. Goal: allow flexible capital raising while keeping OpenAIs mission intact"
X Link 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"10/13 : Long-term Scenarios: [--] yrs: [----] PB new data $12.5B potential. [--] yrs: [---] PB/year $20B annual run rate. This could re-rate GoPro from a $1B hardware brand $20B+ AI infrastructure play"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"11/13 : 📈 Social Arb Angle: Nostalgic brand everyone knows. High short interest. Simple ticker: $GPRO. Misunderstood business model. All it takes: one AI licensing deal (Tesla OpenAI Figure AI etc.) 🚀"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NU - interest for credit cards is at an all time high in Mexico - future looks promising for Nubank"
X Link 2025-08-29T16:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"5/9 : Doing the Math $HOOD = 0.17% of the S&P [---] $7.5T in passive AUM = $12.75B in required buying This is 127M shares = [--] - 17% free float With only 6% AH bump [--] - 15% growth could come purely from passive fund flows"
X Link 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"6/9 : Speculation and further catalysts could also further fuel the gains for $HOOD Sep 9-10 : Investor Summit ⛰ Sep [--] : Monthly metrics release"
X Link 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"7/9 : Whilst $HOOD trades at around 50x P/E which is pricey - this could be justified as younger investors shift away from legacy brokers such as Schwab As money transfers down generations younger generations are more inclined to go with $HOOD"
X Link 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"8/9 : Bank of America predict that Gen Z will earn about $36 trillion in income by [----] Even if 0.1% comes $HOOD way in the forms of savings / banking / investing - or even gambling :) this is $360B - 4x its current market cap"
X Link 2025-09-06T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Pretty bearish on Chipotle $CMG. Its revenue is decreasing QoQ whilst it is opening stores and ramping up prices. $CMG is trading at at 36x P/E vs $MCD which is 26x. Gone are the days where it is reasonable to spend [--] bucks on a burrito.🌯"
X Link 2025-09-07T20:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$HOOD monthly metrics remain fairly flat however overall assets on the platform jumped a small amount. Eventual rate cuts in September should see increasing liquidity for this month - plus banking on $HOOD would be massive for revenue growth. It all looks promising"
X Link 2025-09-11T20:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Pretty bullish on $FSLR in the social sector. With all this AI hyperscaler infrastructure being built somethings got to power it. Plus $FSLR avoids all tariffs since it is all US made and built. Financials look good too. More to come"
X Link 2025-09-12T19:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$HOOD offering interest rates at 3.75% vs FED base rate of 4% following yesterdays cuts. I think this either means they are pricing in a further cut in December or its just another way $HOOD is making money"
X Link 2025-09-18T13:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Little Thread on China vs USA in the AI space and how this could play out:"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ There is no Intel vs TSMC. Its America vs China. The prize is Taiwan"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Theyre building [--] new plants in Ohio that will each cover over [----] acres"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ Its not that Intel is trying. They have to. Its a hedge against the very real possibility of a Taiwan invasion"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ Russia already showed us: the US + NATO dont directly intervene militarily against countries with nukes. And vice versa"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ That means Taiwan being attacked is a real possibility. If that happens there goes TSMC"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ The US stepped in on Intel not because they hope it will beat TSMC but because Intel is critical to US national interest"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ You think China wants Taiwan for beach front property No. When they move in its for the critical infrastructure the chips that make the world function"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"9/ Ukraine is about soil and agriculture. The greatest farming soil on earth"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"10/ Taiwan Who makes the most important chips on earth"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"11/ The US stepped in on Intel not because they hope it will beat TSMC but because Intel is critical to US national interest"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"12/ Why do you think Nvidia and Broadcom have already had preliminary talks with Intel"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"13/ I guarantee those new Ohio plants will have space for one or both of them. To reduce dependence. To secure supply"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"14/ So if China does invade Taiwan the whole AI space will crash but Intel will be the best bet moving forwards"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Social Arb Idea: Tencent Holdings: Clash Royale is booming at the moment. Every single pal I know is playing it. Whilst it makes up a small amount of Tencent it could get the ball rolling ahead of earnings"
X Link 2025-09-18T17:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@EddieJones26905 @EddieJones26905 Done a decent amount of research into earnings reports / earnings calls and PF2 200MW lease to hyperscaler seems to be a bit catalyst short term. Have u got any more info on who it is / time horizon. On earnings call it said near short term"
X Link 2025-10-12T13:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"10/12: 🚀 OpenAIs growth is staggering: Valuation: $500B (2025) Projected revenue 2025: $12.7B (243% YoY) A stake in OpenAI brings $MSFT huge potential growth - especially if OpenAI becomes a near trillion dollar company"
X Link 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"11/12:💡 If OpenAI delivers it would essentially transfer $130B revenue to Microsoft in [----] $MSFTs total revenue could jump from $282B $412B 💥 Thats a 46% YoY increase Driven by AI & Azure dominance ☁🤖 In turn this could drive MSFT stock price upwards of 25% higher"
X Link 2025-08-26T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$GRPO GOPRO Thread 🧵1/13 : Why GoPro could 10x - 100x as a humanoid and AI data play"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"3/13 : 🤖 Why this matters: Humanoid robots need to learn motor skills + edge cases from real human perspective. Lab simulations & synthetic data cant capture this. $GRPRO POV dataset is scarce unique and perfect for training embodied AI"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"4/13 : $GRPO Go Pro's footage is also unique in itself First-person format = perfect for robots. Millions of devices sold continuous new footage. User base already happy to share videos. Add rev-share Users will upload even more. This is a flywheel"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"5/13 : This could generate massive revenue potential for $GRPO AI companies are paying millions for high-quality datasets. As a base asset $GRPO has [---] PB of Content Assuming $50 - $200 per PB of data to train humanoids (pretty conservative) : 450PB x $100 = $45B"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"6/13 : This is all baseline potential licensing revenue which is all from their vault of data. Some of this data is not POV but even in a worst case scenario this is 10% which still gives $GRPO $4.5B"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"7/13 : The User Participation Model also makes it attractive as users can opt-in to license their content giving them a 50/50 rev share over their content with $GRPO"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"8/13 : Assuming 10% of users opt-in (250k users) and the average user creates 50GB per year = 12.5PB fresh content a year that $GRPO can sell to humanoid companies training robots"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"9/13 : In [--] year if $GRPO monetizes even 10% of new uploads = $1B dataset value potential - even at the low end of $80/TB Considering $GRPO made $800 million in [----] this almost doubles its revenue Stock price = $3.8 even if P/S multiples remain the same"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"12/13 : ⚠Ultimately there are always risks: AI labs may prefer synthetic data. Legal/licensing infrastructure needed for user content. Execution risk in pivoting away from just cameras"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"13/13 : Right now I am extremely bullish on $GRPO and waiting to see how the stock builds traction ahead of news"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Luckin Coffee $LKNCY has just opened its 4th place in the US. Considering it is larger than $SBUX in Asia and serves coffee for [--] bucks its definitely something to look out for"
X Link 2025-09-06T20:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"New Deep Dive on $APP AppLovin on Substack here : @mathlonning https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-deep-diver=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-deep-diver=wlb8l"
X Link 2025-12-31T22:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@bdinvestingg I think $NU has more upside than $MELI over the next [--] - [--] months. $MELI trades at [---] - 1.8x higher P/E compared to $NU. Then again they are both great companies I just see more upside in $NU since it is cheaper"
X Link 2026-01-01T20:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@RahulSetty_ $FOUR is too cheap at these prices for a company performing well"
X Link 2026-01-02T09:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"PayPal $PYPL processes $1.7 trillion annually has [---] million accounts generates $7 billion in EBITDA - and trades at 8x earnings. Cheaper than most regional banks. The stock is down 80% from [----] highs because everyone's worried about Apple Pay eating their lunch. Fair concern. But at current prices the market is treating PayPal like a dying business. I don't see that in the numbers. The bear case is simple: Apple Pay is seamless on iPhones PayPal requires more clicks user growth has flatlined at 1%. All true. But here's what the market is missing - transaction margin dollars (the metric"
X Link 2026-01-02T19:25Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@PronkDaniel I am thinking of initiating a position into $FOUR. Its just too undervalued for current prices"
X Link 2026-01-02T20:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$APP - NORTHBEAM data is noise Conversion rate down 5.9% ROAS up only 3.13% (weakest of the major platforms) Budget share at just 2.89% Share change down 17.23% week-over-week Meanwhile Meta dominated with 64.6% budget share and ROAS up 16.3%. Google held steady. TikTok's ROAS jumped 18.6%. Why This Is Noise [--]. This is one week of data during the post-holiday hangover Dec 22-28 is literally the deadest week in advertising. Brands have blown their budgets on Black Friday/Cyber Monday and are coasting into New Year. Drawing conclusions from this week is like judging a restaurant by how busy it"
X Link 2026-01-02T20:58Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Why This Is Noise [--]. This is one week of data during the post-holiday hangover Dec 22-28 is literally the deadest week in advertising. Brands have blown their budgets on Black Friday/Cyber Monday and are coasting into New Year. Drawing conclusions from this week is like judging a restaurant by how busy it is on Christmas Day. [--]. AppLovin's e-commerce push is still early innings Remember AppLovin only opened their e-commerce advertising pilot widely in late [----]. They lowered minimum spend requirements to $10M annual revenue just months ago. At 2.89% budget share they're still a rounding error"
X Link 2026-01-02T21:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I think at 8X earnings $PYPL is seriously undervalued considering the stock has been beaten down the last few years. Yes $PYPL will struggle to overtake things like Apple pay $AAPL but with transaction margin dollars (the metric that actually matters growing at at [--] - 7% last quarter coupled with a new CEO I think $PYPL could be a turn around play and its 40% undervalued at these prices. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007475685464363072 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007475685464363072"
X Link 2026-01-03T15:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Full Deep Dive into PayPal $PYPL is now up on my Substack link here 🟧 : - [----] is likely to be defined by valuation discipline with successful investors focusing on pricing companies correctly rather than chasing AI-driven enthusiasm in already expensive stocks. This creates an opportunity for value investing as some strong businesses like PayPal appear overly punished despite solid fundamentals. https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/full-deep-dive-into-paypal-pyplr=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/full-deep-dive-into-paypal-pyplr=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The market still thinks of Amazon $AMZN as a retailer with a cloud business. I think that's backwards. Amazon is an AI infrastructure company with the largest real world automation laboratory on the planet. At $226 the stock is priced on current earnings. I think it should be priced on where AI and automation take this business over the next five years. Start with AWS. Q3 revenue hit $33 billion up 20% year over year. That's the highest growth rate in [--] quarters on a $132 billion annualized run rate. Backlog grew to $200 billion and October deal volume alone exceeded all of Q3. This isn't"
X Link 2026-01-03T21:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Futurenvesting Market thinks its acquisition model spreads the company too thinly and so gives it a low multiple. As such $FOUR has a much lower multiple than $TOST which is a pure play name in the sector. I think $FOUR is [--] percent undervalued currently"
X Link 2026-01-04T11:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Big fan of your research on $ACMR - just bought a small amount [--] percent after looking into it myself. May increase with more research"
X Link 2026-01-05T21:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Feels like the whole AI sector is just far too expensive and $ACMR seems undervalued when the whole market has no idea about its Shanghai stake"
X Link 2026-01-05T21:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$APP down 6% today - Share price slipped below the [---] mark. If it goes down any further may have to initiate a position"
X Link 2026-01-06T17:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"MindMed is developing MM120 a pharmaceutical-grade LSD for anxiety and depression. I came across this idea in a @AndreasSteno Realvision report so thought I would take the idea to town seen as I think this is a sector with little traction and a lot of upside The thesis is simple: current treatments are daily pills that take weeks to work and fail half of patients. MM120 is one dose given once in a clinic providing relief lasting months. In Phase [--] trials published in JAMA 48% of severe anxiety patients hit complete remission from a single treatment more than double the efficacy of existing"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@EddieJones26905 How do you know about this Qanta contract- cant find it anywhere. Regardless $BE is set up for a re rating in 2026"
X Link 2026-01-07T16:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mathlonning Nice to see some green heading into JPM conference. Feels like $TMDX has gone sideways for far too long"
X Link 2026-01-07T17:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Just released my Spread Sheet on Substack here: It will show Portfolio allocation and returns along with daily market thoughts Main holdings so far $BE $APP $ACMR $NKTR $TMDX $MNMD $BMNR https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/spread-sheet-trackerr=wlb8l&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/spread-sheet-trackerr=wlb8l&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"
X Link 2026-01-08T00:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Portfolio Update : Currently up 18.5% YTD. Not bad for [--] days Core longs remain in order of size remain $BE $TMDX $BMNR $ACMR $NKTR $MNMD Positions that I am watching for right price entry - $APP $TE $ALAB $CRDO $EVLV $NU $ONDS $SYM I feel as if everything in tech or just AI in general is just trading at a silly premium so no point buying them right now. It feels odd to sit back at the sidelines and watch the macro thematic stocks take off with Trump at the reigns without taking any positions. Then again half these companies are trading at premiums with no fundamentals only backed by a"
X Link 2026-01-08T23:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I think there is little to no downside and only upside of holding $TMDX into the JPM press conference on the 12th. Its been good to see the stock rally along with flight data at the start of [----]. I think it is underappreciated how much the stock price is correlated with flight data which is probably why it has gone sideways since August. Been averaging around [--] + ish flights for the last few weeks and so $TMDX is up 12% YTD. I think there are a few questions that we would like to be seen answered at this JPM press conference 1) Will they actually give any [----] guidance 2) Do we get an"
X Link 2026-01-09T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ChrisCamillo Already sold 1.1GW of their 2GW capacity for [----] in [--] days. I think demand will be reflected for Q4 earnings"
X Link 2026-01-09T22:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Since I recently bought a position in $ACMR at the start of [----] it is already up 20% YTD. I thought I would give some thoughts about it ahead of the company releasing full-year [----] preliminary revenue range and initial [----] revenue outlook on the 22nd. I think the main outcome of this will be a re rating of $ACMR. $ACMR owns 74.6% of ACM Shanghai which trades on Chinas STAR Market at a market cap of $13.1B whilst $ACMR trades on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $3.4B. This represents a 68% discount but also ACM Shanghai is the moat because it is domestically integrated with China and so is"
X Link 2026-01-09T23:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Just bought a small position in $PYPL - less than 5% allocation. PayPal trades at just 8x free cash flow a valuation typically reserved for businesses in terminal decline. Yet the fundamentals tell a different story: transaction margin dollars grew 6-7% last quarter operating margins expanded to 18.1% and net margins jumped to 14.8%. The company generates nearly $2 billion in cash quarterly and just initiated its first dividend hardly the behavior of a company fighting for survival. For context Block trades at nearly double PayPal's multiple while losing money and Adyen commands 5x PayPal's"
X Link 2026-01-12T16:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"yeah seems odd that it is down 5% today even with objectively bullish China news of domestic equipment share hitting 35% in [----] vs 25% in [----]. Along with new 50% + domestic sourcing requirements for fab expansions. Just shows how much market doesn't appreciate that Shanghai is the moat and so $ACMR only benefits from this news taking market share away from companies like $AMAT. I didn't add however :( - already makes up 12% of my book https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011195676806299853 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011195676806299853"
X Link 2026-01-13T21:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Thought I would give some short thoughts on Bloom Energy since it is my largest position at 25% allocation and the stock is up 62% in the last month. They crushed Q3 earnings: revenue came in at $519M vs $421M expected (23% beat) EPS hit $0.15 vs $0.10 (50% beat) and gross margins expanded [---] bps YoY to 30.4%. They're shipping product margins are inflecting and the backlog keeps growing with AEP's $2.65B deal the Wyoming 900MW project approval and Brookfield's $5B partnership. They have sold 1.1GW out of their 2GW of power for [----] and it's only halfway through January. I think all of this"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"As an investor my job is to observe what's happening and try to stay one or two steps ahead of the market - not three or four. Right now there's a lot happening. I want to walk through how I'm thinking about the current macro setup and why I'm positioned the way I am. Trump announced new tariffs on Denmark Norway Sweden France Germany the UK the Netherlands and Finland starting at 10% on February 1st and escalating to 25% by June 1st. The explicit goal is to pressure Europe into accepting US acquisition of Greenland. Why does Greenland matter The US already has Pituffik Space Base there for"
X Link 2026-01-19T13:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I really do think Gold will rip again this year. Gold loves volatility. Midterms high valuations and Geopolitics will likely create instability this year. I like the company $NEM for this year. It will be my next deep dive. Tomorrow will be the start of my daily newsletter on Substack. More of this will be covered then. https://jonathankay33.substack.com https://jonathankay33.substack.com"
X Link 2026-01-19T22:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Whilst I think this is political fear I also think it is a sign that there is more volatility to come. Ultimately Trump is never going to let the markets slip as midterms are on the horizon. Having said that the rising wealth gap also creates issues. Young people these days feel like modern day capitalism let them down. Their parents were able to buy houses for $100k that are now worth $1M. As such a bunch of these people are turning left. I think this creates volatility heading in to the midterms. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013557532778713182"
X Link 2026-01-20T10:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I think the key thing to come from all of this is that the midterms will create uncertainty and volatility. Young people feel as if modern capitalism has let them down. Their parents were able to buy houses for $100k which are now worth $1M. Meanwhile young people are feeling crushed by inflation. As such I think a lot of them are turning left for this very reason. Gold should do well this year IMO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013558270825234648 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013558270825234648"
X Link 2026-01-20T10:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ProblemSniper Sort of agree. Markets don't like high growth tech with high valuations in time of stability. Having said this nothing in the underlying business has changed. All of these short reports are pure noise. I think Q4 earnings proves this all wrong"
X Link 2026-01-20T11:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Just bought a small position in $AVAV. This stop work order on the BADGER systems for the SCAR program is noise. They are literally just "negotiating an amended for the future of the SCAR program under a firm - fixed price agreement. "The company expects to continue to deliver capabilites and products for the SCAR program". I think $AVAV rallies when people actually do their homework and don't just listen to the headlines https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013714191450808719 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013714191450808719"
X Link 2026-01-20T20:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"ACM Research releases preliminary [----] revenue guidance this week on Thursday with management guiding $875M to $925M. However I wouldnt be surprised to see this come in closer to $1B given several Q4 tailwinds: the first panel-level packaging tool ships this quarter with management highlighting strong interest from China Taiwan and US customers; advanced packaging revenue already up 231% YoY to $27.7M in Q3; deferred shipments from Q3 now hitting Q4; and the first KrF track system delivery opening a new product category. On margins while management reiterated their 42-48% target model and"
X Link 2026-01-20T20:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"With Canada annoucing 5% of GDP going to defense including $2B + specifically for drones I really like DPRO. Due to the tariff war Canada has an explicit buy Canadian policy. Draganfly is the ONLY native Canadian drone manufacturer. CEO: There might be two companies in the whole country that can address that market and the other company only has one particular type of drone. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013746798590894374 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013746798590894374"
X Link 2026-01-20T22:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I think you are highly naive to what is going on currently in the US. Trump believes the future of the US hinges on whether they can role out full scale AGI before China. This is why he thinks Greenland is essential for national security because it is abundantly full of natural resources that the US needs for AGI. Moreover the US is in a genuine debt crisis fuelled by the decoupling from China. China is selling US treasuries every month and so has halved this value from $1.2T to $688B. This is because the less amount of US reserves China has the less leverage the US has over them in the event"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Yes things are never as bad as they seem. For the next few months or so this is probably just noise. But I dont get how you cant see the US slowly decoupling from China through the Greenland situation. As for Europe I dont know for now. As for the youth yes they are ungrateful losers. Its not that capitalism doesnt work for the youth its that the youth feels as if it doesnt work for them because they are no longer willing to chase the American dream. Look I dont think any of this has any effect on investing in high growth names for now its just something to have in mind Apologies for the"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@accounting_ds Yeh always good to hear both sides"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@accounting_ds Obviously you have done a hell of a lot more research into $TE than I have and congrats on the run that it has had over the last [--] months. How much more upside do you think it will have in [----] and do you reckon now is the right time to take a postion"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@accounting_ds Yeah we have all seen the DCF model over the next year pricing it well above $20. Just feels volatile at the moment"
X Link 2026-01-21T15:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@accounting_ds Yeah Im sitting on 25% cash. Feels like all my positions are immune to tariffs and all that jazz but can still trade down just on market reactions. $TE obviously does well in these environments"
X Link 2026-01-21T15:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@accounting_ds Agreed"
X Link 2026-01-21T15:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"FFS why has $TE rebounded from -5% pre market to flat. Was gonna buy some at those prices"
X Link 2026-01-22T12:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Just found about a backdoor play on $ASTS through $VOD on X. Seems really interesting considering leaps are dirt cheap for $VOD. Havent done my homework yet but will post the real thesis at some point tomorrow or weekend latest"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@steve_platz Yeah apologies literally just checked this now. Will change. Was doing calculations based on market cap and stock price pre market so was skewed. Cheers for pointing this out"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Here are some of my own thoughts as I am long "sell US for [----] and think this is just the start 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement now gets more funding than the combined budgets of all"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Ok firstly they say in their earnings call they are getting at least 0.5oz / panel of silver so I am not sure behind the increase from $200 - $250. I am merely modelling what management is saying. Secondly I am a simple observer of what is going around. I don't like to take one side or the other politically. I am in the middle observing what is going around me and trying to be [--] - [--] steps ahead of the market. Yes Trump will try to goose the markets ahead of elections. But this all comes down to the fundamental problem of the Wealth Gap in the USA. Also with the massive operating losses this"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Haha. Look you can have your opinion and I can have mine. We will speak macro at the end of [----] once it has all played out and see who won. At the end of the day we are probably both going to do well as investors in $LODE. I just like to have a macro hedge going into [----] ahead of volatility https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"New Mini Deep Dive into Coupang $CPNG. One of my pals (who is invested in $CPNG) sent me a few posts on X from @JonahLupton who had written a bit about $CPNG. I am pretty sure he is one of the fair few that has actually broken down the narrative with $CPNG - so credit goes to him. I just thought I would do my own research as I hate buying things I don't fully understand. https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/coupang-mini-deep-dive-nyse-cpngr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-31T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Just posted my full Deep Dive into $ACMR and why it is 68% undervalued compared to its staked assets : FYI I have a 12% position and may add more depending on pullbacks https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$ACMR down 5% today despite objectively bullish China news: domestic equipment share hit 35% in [----] (vs 25% in 2024) with new 50%+ domestic sourcing requirements for fab expansions. ACM Shanghai is classified as a domestic supplier meaning ACMR benefits from localization alongside NAURA/AMEC taking share from $AMAT/ $LRCX / $TEL. Selloff looks like noise ahead of Jan [--] guidance rather than fundamental deterioration. The China equipment substitution wave is a tailwind not a headwind. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426"
X Link 2026-01-13T15:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Thinking off doing the same but $ACMR is up 4.5% pre market 🤦"
X Link 2026-01-15T12:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"January Update : Currently up 22% YTD. Core positions remain : $BE $TMDX $ACMR $APP Full January Investment Newsletter now up on my Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Apologies I have been away for the weekend so have not been active on socials. One of my next deep dives will be on Comstock $LODE. Currently I am modelling the stock price based off forward guidance for management surrounding their new state of the art solar recycling facilities that can process 100k tons or 3.3M solar panels a year. Management states that they could be processing 200k tons a year by [----]. Considering silver prices are sky high - and I see them going higher as the sell US trade matures I think $LODE could be a [--] - [--] bagger over the next few years. FYI this model does not"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:13Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@DonnoShid Its hard to tell in what time horizon Bioleum will IPO. Management reckons [--] - [--] years. Either way its a great piece on information the market probably doesnt appreciate"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah would make it so much more clearer if we actually knew in concrete what the deal they get on the silver and other minerals. Hopefully this gets brought up on the next earnings call. These are the numbers that I got when I put $250/Ton in. I still don't own a position as the risk/reward probably isn't there until it becomes clearer with what the gig is with silver"
X Link 2026-01-28T11:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Day [--] of The Kay Letter is now out on Substack : Topics discussed : 1) Greenland and Geopolitics 2) My positions and why they are unaffected 3) Short report on $APP and why it is noise 4) Why $ACMR is going to crush revenue guidance on Thursday 5) Why [----] will be the year for Gold https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-20T11:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just to let everyone know $ACMR is one of the very few sell US trades that has exposure to AI"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This well and truly hits the nail on the head @RayDalio. Thought I would elaborate on this a touch more because I think [----] is the year for "sell US". 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ok so here is what it would look like with your numbers. I think [----] is a "sell US trade" as volatility corruption and other tensions occur. As such investors will seek hard assets in times like these. I recently reposted an Article today on Ray Dalio's thoughts surrounding the US. I also outlined mine in this post so feel free to read that as well since all my "sell US" thoughts are outlined in there as well. Also management said they are getting 60% spot rev prices on silver in earnings call - not sure whether you want to be conservative at 50% but I am just going to go with what"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Sk hynix is the largest customer and they smoked earnings 👀👀"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Would be odd though if $ACMR crushed earnings as well despite conservative [----] full year guidance only a week or so ago"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@thexcapitalist If $BE wobbles off this I will buy"
X Link 2026-02-02T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts though when they actually ramp up supply to meet demand and prices fall Yes this seems like a negative thing to say for someone who missed the memory cycle but just curious"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I still think $BE will do great in their Q4 earnings tomorrow. They literally sold 50% of their 2GW capacity within [--] days of [----]. I think it is pretty obvious that demand is there. For now the stock is down 20% today. Guess that is momentum trading for you. I will probably size up a position to hold through earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For now I am 50% in cash. Waiting to add to the ideas that I like. $BE $TE $NBIS $ACMR $APP"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BE reports earnings today. Will be doing a full write up later"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BE reports earnings tonight. Revenue is expected to be $646.84M and EPS is expected to be $0.24. $BE managed to sell 1.1GW out of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] starting. I think this makes it pretty clear that demand is there and that $BE will likely sell its entire GW capacity in [----]. I believe this should start to show up in earnings tonight for $BE. Normally I would be leveraged through earnings. However with the current fear and chaos around the AI trade especially after AMDs slowing guidance I am concerned that unless $BE beats expectations by more than [--] percent and"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What did I say. A company is clearly doing well if they can sell over 50% of their yearly capacity in [--] days of [----]. $BE"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Will publish a full $BE earnings writeup at either some point tomorrow or the weekend on Substack"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@celestial4104 @ContrarianCurse I just listened the earnings call. It almost felt like they couldn't give long term guidance because demand is off the charts"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@benitoz so damn bullish. I am buying more if its flat pre market"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ContrarianCurse $BE"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BLOOM ENERGY $BE Q4 FULL EARNINGS WRITEUP NOW LIVE ON MY SUBSTACK LINK BELOW : - https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought roughly 25% of my book in the $90s sold 80% at $174 when the stock hit all time highs and later bought back at $135 after the pullback to $136. I sold initially because I was up 88% in [--] weeks and BE is a high beta name where momentum can reverse quickly"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2/ The earnings setup was strong. Bloom sold 1.1GW of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] which clearly signals demand. At the same time the AI trade is energy constrained and Bloom demonstrated speed to power by supplying a full Oracle data center in [--] days versus [--] days guided. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Another key takeaway from the call was that Blooms fuel cell technology can reduce electricity usage by at least 20%. For hyperscalers operating on roughly 2025% margins that level of cost reduction is highly meaningful and directly supports demand"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ I avoided options into Q4 earnings despite high conviction. Premiums were elevated due to volatility and the market had been punishing even strong prints as seen with Google selling off despite beating across metrics. Instead I increased my equity exposure at $135"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ Stepping back my main conclusion from the earnings call is that guidance does not reflect what is actually happening on the ground. Management sounded constrained in giving long term guidance because demand is accelerating too quickly to confidently forecast"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"13/ Using analyst cost estimates and Blooms margin profile full 2GW deployment could support $1012B of revenue depending on pricing assumptions. Under both higher and lower pricing scenarios current guidance implies only 2731% utilization"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"14/ Even a moderate utilization case suggests upside. At 65% utilization and $4500/kW pricing total revenue could approach $6B in [----] versus $3.2B guided. Combined with operating leverage EBITDA growth would materially outpace revenue growth"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"With $ACMR hitting all-time highs about ten minutes ago and earnings right around the corner it felt like the right time to get into the numbers and form some conclusions for [----]. Starting with revenue the midpoint of managements [----] guidance is $1.1275B. I expect gross margins in [----] to come in around 46% to 48% up from the 42% reported in Q3. Management explicitly stated that there were two main drivers behind the lower margins. First there was a [---] basis point hit from product mix due to higher sales of smaller front-end tools. Second there was a [---] basis point hit from inventory"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Right so I was trying to model the stock price of $ACMR and it jumped 4% in the space of about [--] mins haha"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finished the month of January up 15%. Main positions remain $BE $ACMR Smaller positions $APP $TE $DFTX $NKTR Hedges $NEM Would of been a great month had I not decided to punt in $BMNR as a leveraged play on crypto bottoming out Hey ho I guess there is a lesson in that in itself - was stupid in heinsight Looking forward to Feb - especially since lot of my positions report earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278"
X Link 2026-01-30T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bloom Energy $BE Q4 Earnings Thread 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"15/ At $152 pre market the stock is already pricing in a significant beat. I rebought at $136 but will likely trim around current levels not due to lack of conviction but because the risk reward is less attractive after the move. The core question remains whether Bloom delivers a modest beat or something far larger than guidance implies"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"FULL $BE Q4 EARNINGS WRITEUP ON MY SUBSTACK BELOW : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ok so Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought a large position around 25% of my book in the $90 range and sold 80% of my position the other day when the stock hit all time highs at http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969 http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sold a large chunk of the $BE I bought pre earnings for 15% gain. Currently up 33% YTD and 40% in cash"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Its hard to think that companies like $TE and $BE won't do well over the next [--] - [--] months. All this capex has to go somewhere and it is going to go where the bottlenecks are. Energy has been clearly defined"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Claude Opus [---] is beyond good. Makes ChatGPT look like a silly chatbot"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"My thesis for [----] is finding companies trading at attractive valuations with strong fundamentals in an otherwise expensive market. Reddit fits that profile. At $141 the company trades at 18-19x forward EV/EBITDA while growing EBITDA at 80-90% year-over-year. Most peers growing a fraction of that rate trade at comparable or higher multiples. Q4 delivered revenue of $726 million up 70% YoY. But the key metric is EBITDA: $327 million up 112% YoY with a 45% margin. Revenue doubled in FY25 but EBITDA more than doubled. Incremental EBITDA margin was 60% meaning $0.60 of every revenue dollar"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Little bitter that I missed the boat on $CRDO when it hit $96 a week ago amidst market selloff and fears that Photonics would take away market share. Yesterday they announced third quarter fiscal year [----] revenue in the range of $404 million to $408 million above the high-end of Credos previously announced third quarter guidance range of $335 million and $345 million. $CRDO is increasing revenue 50% QoQ which is mental. I am yet to do my full research into the valuation of the company over the next few years but just from this upside alone $CRDO looks nice."
X Link 2026-02-10T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$RDDT ended the day up 6%. I think the market is slowly starting to realize that a company growing revenue and EBITDA 70% yoy valued at [--] - 19x EV/EBITDA is quite a nice valuation"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit Doing the math EBITDA is growing [--] - 90% yoy. I think $RDDT does $1.5B of EBITDA in [----] which means it trades at a value under 20x NTM EBITDA. To me $RDDT is easily [--] - 50% undervalued at these prices. Also I think $RDDT is immune to AI as its platform is so community based"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I don't know why anyone would want to buy any SaaS stocks when $RDDT is out there. Not a single stock is growing revenue 70% yoy and trades at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. The idea that they are beaten down on the assumption that AI will replace them is fair to a degree. But $RDDT is so community based that AI simply can't replace this. I have a 4% position in $RDDT but will be looking to scale it up to 10% in the near future as I really like the risk reward at these prices https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LogicalThesis Buy $RDDT instead. $RDDT is growing revenues at 70% yoy and EBITDA at [--] - 90% yoy. At these prices $RDDT is valued at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. I think there is much better risk reward than any software stocks out there growing revenues at 30% yoy at best"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Nietschecapital They will soon catch up. This is the edge anyway for our thesis on $APP $RDDT"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Been hearing on X that there is some potential for a data center deal soon. Dont know if I fully believe this. Still havnt read into it properly and not familiar with $WBI"
X Link 2026-01-07T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"January Update: Currently up 22% YTD which is pretty decent. Core main positions remain $BE $TMDX $ACMR January Investment Newsletter on my Substack below https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Latest Deep Dive into $NEM as a leveraged play on Gold in [----]. Short Summary : When empires fracture gold wins. I believe we are seeing the cracks open in the US system. This is not a typical gold mining analysis but a leveraged thesis on the unravelling of the post-WW2 order and how to position for it. Newmont Corporation $NEM is the world's largest gold miner. It offers leveraged exposure to the single greatest hedge against institutional breakdown. With $38T in federal debt interest payments consuming ever larger chunks of revenue and central banks globally dumping Treasuries while"
X Link 2026-01-28T12:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"January Reflection now out on my Substack : Excel Spreedsheet Tracker here - Main positions still remain $BE $ACMR $NEM Smaller positions $TE $APP $DFTX $NKTR https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-reflectionr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2026-01-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sold a decent chunk of my book yesterday amidst euphoria. 1) Sold my $ACMR call options for 110% gain 2) Sold 75% of my $BE for 88% gain Currently up 37% YTD"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With $AMD bringing the whole AI trade lower $NBIS at $83 and $CRDO at $100 look quite nice"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just because I sold out of all my $ACMR does not mean I no longer think it is a great idea for [----]. My price target for $ACMR is $89 and yesterday when it hit $64 briefly I decided to take the gains in my call options and run. Your job as an investor is to make the number on your screen go up. Today is literally living proof that the market can go down as fast as it goes up https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think just general price action. I sold all my $ACMR options for 110% gain when it hit [--] briefly. I have done really well (35% YTD) and with all the political volatility on the horizon it felt greedy to hold on to them and not take my winnings. I am going to wait a little longer but still keen to run $ACMR again through earnings as I think they will surprise the market on margins. I also think that with China rapidly expanding wafer production to H2 [----] I expect guidance to be good as well. For now though the market is a bloodbath and I am sitting on 50% cash"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah $BE is one of my largest positions. However when doing the math the guidance seemed a little conservative. $BE sold 1.1GW out of their 2GW capacity for [----] by Jan 8th. They were able to provide power to an oracle data center within [--] days. I think it is pretty obvious they will sell close to all their capacity in [----]. At 2GW capacity management say revenues will be 4x that of the FY [----] revenues. FY2025 rev was $2B. 4x that is $8B. Management guided $3.1 - $3.3B for [----] - $4.8B less than if they actually were to run at full capacity for [----]. Management also were explicit that "they"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Here is much current portfolio allocation : Currently up 33.2% YTD with 39.6% Cash Really liking the look of Solar at the moment $TE $TOYO off the bat of the enormous Capex projections from $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@zephyr_z9 $ACMR should do well of this. Considering they have just started shipping their advanced packaging products and this segment is growing 231% YoY I think we get some good guidance from management on Feb 26th surrounding margins and market outlook"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just a small update regarding performance YTD. Currently up 38.6% YTD. Link to my portfolio here : FYI this is a new sheet that updates live when I plug new transactions so for now the transaction sheet is blank but I will update daily moving forwards. Ive transitioned out of the majority of my $BE post-earnings position purely because Ive made strong returns over the last five weeks and dont see the point in being greedy. Ill likely add back aggressively on any pullbacks but for now Im holding a smaller position. I sold all of my $ACMR call options the other week for a 100% gain and rotated"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just a small thought because I hold both $APP and $RDDT which have both sold off a bunch despite pretty damn good earnings. I think it is pretty clear to see that there is just no momentum in the market. $RDDT is being treated like its in the software bucket and $APP is trading below its 200DMA. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mathlonning Yeah I am in a similar boat. Still up 27% YTD but with 18% cash. Bought a bunch more $APP and $TMDX though"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Im currently working on my $APP Q4 earnings write-up and wanted to share a few thoughts before posting it. Right now the market seems uncertain about what AppLovin really is. Is it just a gaming ad network or is it becoming a serious player in the broader e-commerce advertising space There are also concerns that $META could limit AppLovins ability to scale its e-commerce business. On the earnings call management pushed back on this idea arguing that increased competition actually strengthens their marketplace economics rather than weakens them. It feels like the market wants more proof in"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1) After reviewing $APP Q4 earnings call its seems hard to believe that the stock sold off 20%+ and bottomed again around the $360 mark - down 47% YTD from a 52WH of $745. Whilst the market did rebound yesterday I still think $APP is extremely undervalued and misunderstood by most especially surrounding various forms of competition and what the company actually does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2) Markets hate unknowns and $APP is a real reflection of that currently. APP is getting crushed because the market is unsure where the business sits in the world of gaming and e-commerce. If APP is just a gaming ad network then margins are likely to compress over time. But if MAX can scale in the world of e-commerce then APP is likely to be a winner. I have high conviction in the latter and I am going to explain why https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3) The main elephant in the room is competition - specifically from $META. During the earnings call the vast majority of questions and debate were about the threat that $META poses to $APP. I think this speaks for itself and shows where peoples heads are at. The market thinks Meta poses a threat to AppLovin and so I think they want tangible proof that a player of Metas scale cant disrupt AppLovins growth in a new market. I think that we see management execute continuously quarter on quarter and so for the most part I think the market is getting this one wrong."
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4) I think the market's confusion about competitive threats stems from the lack of understanding about $APP two-sided model. MAX = The Auction Platform : When you see an ad in a mobile game there is a split second auction. Meta Google Unity and APP all bid to show their ad. MAX RUNS the auction picks the highest bidder and takes 5% cut. MAX started in gaming apps and is now expanding into e-commerce apps. AXON [---] = AppLovins AI Bidder : This is AppLovins AI that COMPETES in MAX auctions bidding against Meta Google and others. APP owns the auction AND competes in the autctions. When Axon 2.-"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5) When asked about CloudX entering mediation CEO Adam Foroughis response was blunt stating that : The moat around our mediation is not because of the mediation. We are very good. We have got the most bid density. In any mediation A or B test if you have talked to publishers you will hear MAX does better." The reality is that a new mediation platform would need to simultaneously achieve [--]. Higher Bid Density than MAX [--]. Better AI than Axon [---] [--]. Stronger publisher relationships I think this an extremely high bar and so I think there is no threat to MAX in the mediation business"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6) Investors worry Metas social data (knowing exactly who users are via FB and IG logins) gives them an insurmountable advantage over Axon 2.0s probabilistic model when bidding in MAX auctions. Managements counter argument has two parts: First it would violate Apples $APPL terms. Using internal social graph data to target opt-out users is explicitly against platform rules. Meta isn't going to risk their entire iOS relationship for incremental ad revenue. Second the competitive landscape has fundamentally changed. Investors are anchoring to historical data from [--] years ago when Meta dominated"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"9) AppLovin has been targeted by multiple short sellers over the past year - Fuzzy Panda Culper Research Muddy Waters and most recently Capital Watch in January [----]. Short sellers are investors who bet against a stock profiting when it falls. They borrow shares sell them and hope to buy them back cheaper later. Every short report came from firms with disclosed positions meaning they profit directly if the stock falls. Notably Capital Watch withdrew their short report last week and announced they are now long APP. This is extremely unusual behavior - something I have never seen before."
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TechEquityEng $RDDT is not a software stock. Prime example explaining why $RDDT trades down along with Software names"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Full $APP Q4 earnings writeup now up on my Substack : https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Detailed Thread regarding AppLovin's $APP Q4 Earnings and why the Market is getting this Wrong"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7) In addition to this competition actually helps $APP. When more advertisers bid in MAX prices rise and publishers make more money. They reinvest that into user acquisition creating more inventory. APP collects 5% on all competitor wins so a higher bid density = more revenue Even when $APP does lose an auction inside MAX they still take a 5% cut on the winner. So $APP benefits regardless https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"8) The underlying business is still remarkable Q4 [----] : Revenue: $1.66B (up 66% YoY) Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4B (up 82% YoY 84% margin) EBITDA margin expansion: 700+ basis points YoY Q/Q flow-through to EBITDA: 95% (nearly every incremental revenue dollar converted to earnings) Free cash flow: $1.31B (up 88% YoY) Cash balance: $2.5B Full Year [----] : Revenue: $5.48B (up 70%) EBITDA: $4.51B (up 87% 82% margin) Free cash flow: $3.95B (up 91%) As CFO Matt Stumpf noted investors often reference the Rule of [--] in software - the idea that revenue growth plus profit margin should exceed 40%. AppLovins"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"15) I think APP conservatively grows EBITDA at 60% YoY throughout [----]. If they do 60% EBITDA growth YoY for [----] then APP should do at least $7B in EBITDA for [----]. At a price of $365 per share that means youre paying roughly 18x NTM EV/EBITDA for a company growing EBITDA 60% YoY. I think as well in the back half of [----] we should see acceleration as self-service general availability launches and e-commerce scales. The stock has fallen over 50% from its highs while the underlying business has actually improved and is growing. The company is buying $2.58B in stock annually with $3.3B in"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"16) Full Writeup on Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If anyone is bullish on $ACMR I would highly recommend giving this one a read. Essentially chips can't get any smaller and so Advanced Packaging is the way forward. $ACMR is growing its Advanced Packing sector at 231% YoY. Can't wait to see what that number is in earnings in a couple weeks time. https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NuttyCLD @Shakazulu117 $ACMR"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@crux_capital_ What are your opinions on $LITE vs $COHR vs $AAOI"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit $CRDO"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"January Reflection now out on my Substack : Excel Spreedsheet Tracker here - Main positions still remain $BE $ACMR $NEM Smaller positions $TE $APP $DFTX $NKTR https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-reflectionr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2026-01-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If anyone is bullish on $ACMR I would highly recommend giving this one a read. Essentially chips can't get any smaller and so Advanced Packaging is the way forward. $ACMR is growing its Advanced Packing sector at 231% YoY. Can't wait to see what that number is in earnings in a couple weeks time. https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Part 1: The Era of Substrates The Empire of Sand Back onto Glass For the past half-century humanity has been obsessed with making things "smaller." That was the only way to pack more transistors onto a single chip. Shrinking transistors to 10nm 5nm and 3nm was http://x.com/i/article/2021901179622764548 http://x.com/i/article/2021901179622764548"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:13Z 10.5K followers, 382.6K engagements
"Detailed Thread regarding AppLovin's $APP Q4 Earnings and why the Market is getting this Wrong"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"15) I think APP conservatively grows EBITDA at 60% YoY throughout [----]. If they do 60% EBITDA growth YoY for [----] then APP should do at least $7B in EBITDA for [----]. At a price of $365 per share that means youre paying roughly 18x NTM EV/EBITDA for a company growing EBITDA 60% YoY. I think as well in the back half of [----] we should see acceleration as self-service general availability launches and e-commerce scales. The stock has fallen over 50% from its highs while the underlying business has actually improved and is growing. The company is buying $2.58B in stock annually with $3.3B in"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"16) Full Writeup on Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Full $APP Q4 earnings writeup now up on my Substack : https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Im currently working on my $APP Q4 earnings write-up and wanted to share a few thoughts before posting it. Right now the market seems uncertain about what AppLovin really is. Is it just a gaming ad network or is it becoming a serious player in the broader e-commerce advertising space There are also concerns that $META could limit AppLovins ability to scale its e-commerce business. On the earnings call management pushed back on this idea arguing that increased competition actually strengthens their marketplace economics rather than weakens them. It feels like the market wants more proof in"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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