#  @HoldenWalker99 Holden Walker Holden Walker posts on X about $fnma, $fmcc, $fnmas, $fmckj the most. They currently have [---] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1894800292639608832/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -1.10% - [--] Month [------] -100% - [--] Months [----------] -12% - [--] Year [-----------] -43% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1894800292639608832/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -96% - [--] Months [-----] +175% - [--] Year [-----] +6,724% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1894800292639608832/followers)  - [--] Week [---] no change - [--] Month [---] +6% - [--] Months [---] +71% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1894800292639608832/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [premier league](/list/premier-league) **Social topic influence** [$fnma](/topic/$fnma) #32, [$fmcc](/topic/$fmcc) #28, [$fnmas](/topic/$fnmas) #4, [$fmckj](/topic/$fmckj) #1, [ipo](/topic/ipo), [$fnmat](/topic/$fnmat), [common](/topic/common), [investment](/topic/investment), [$300b](/topic/$300b), [money](/topic/money) **Top assets mentioned** [ForTube (FOR)](/topic/$for) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "If the $341B 79.9% and/or $200B are common equity ( $FNMA $FMCC ) which is the obvious path to be worth anything $0.01 to the Treasury (i.e. American people) $33B JPS ( $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. ) par value needs to be ahead of the common equity. Capital structures matter Im doing the math on GSE trade. It aint pretty for junior preferred and its brutal for the common. $341 billion of senior preferred warrants for 79.9% of common $200 billion of additional capital need $10 billion every year for explicit guarantee. Whats left Im doing the math on GSE trade. It aint pretty for junior preferred and" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928094339130888375) 2025-05-29T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@lesgrossman25 Agree. I asked @carney to clarify his statement on the junior preferred but I doubt that he does. He's coming around to the idea of recapitalization and release (progress) but I don't think his statement on junior preferred is correct unless I am missing something (unlikely)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928097914984804768) 2025-05-29T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@time2trade2 Did you catch "weve got to clean up the capital structure" If you're a common shareholder of $FNMA and/or $FMCC that should concern you greatly. If not you're choosing to ignore reality" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928099189977760159) 2025-05-29T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@carney @lesgrossman25 Thanks for the reply. $C is a great example with existing JPS converting at 85-95% of par at the same time as government senior preferred and warrants putting them all in the same boat at a valuation attractive to new capital and further upside. Well take it" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928123047476596756) 2025-05-29T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@high52weeks @IndependentFHFA @pulte New equity (likely required) and JPS conversion (common in capital restructuring) are dilutive to Treasury's warrant value in a vacuum but easily offset with SPS equitization that could be worth infinite shares up to 95% (or more with creativity) of the total equity pie" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928137360941764695) 2025-05-29T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheF2Twins @midas79_ You're going to be hard pressed to find shareholders with damage claims Treasury's value of SPS conversion to common equity. And then they have to retain counsel fight in court for years and win" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928166344244994236) 2025-05-29T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What if UST doesn't want to sell their stake (i.e. holds in SWF) or need new investor capital with IPO (i.e. FHFA amends ERCF + retained earnings) Then they will only care about the maximum % ownership (i.e. 95%+ vs. 79.9%) and not the short-term value of the pie. $FNMA $FMCC Surprised Tim Howards posted comments today have received little attention $fnma https://t.co/qlzl6kEo3o Surprised Tim Howards posted comments today have received little attention $fnma https://t.co/qlzl6kEo3o" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1928828907949580784) 2025-05-31T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mattmazurczak @carney @lesgrossman25 Im coming around to this. Converting JPS to common equity was much more important to level the capital structure ahead of a historic IPO and when interest rates were low. Less important now" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929476028734353903) 2025-06-02T09:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Oldie but goodie and especially relevant now with much lower capital requirements. All this talk about risks to new investor capital (if SPS converted to common) can be bypassed by leveraging JPS base in a deal or private placement or just retained earnings. Ending #GSE conservatorship is not hard Do a rights offering requiring jr prefs to commit to buy equity & convert to common on IPO. Size IPO to get to statutory capital. Release from conservatorship with a consent decree until regulatory capital is met. Done @USTreasury @FHFA Ending #GSE conservatorship is not hard Do a rights offering" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929551471810388106) 2025-06-02T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 could be sooner than expected w/o a need for new capital. Just clean up the capital structure - which could happen tomorrow - and start paying dividends once FHFA ERCF rule revised thereafter. End of summer surprise Why isnt @pulte telling us Frankly the businesses dont need more capital Plastered all over my newsfeed Thats the statement of the week for sure and its only Monday @DoNotLose @midas79_ @Alec_Mazo @BillAckman @bryndonfisher Why isnt @pulte telling us Frankly the businesses dont need more capital Plastered all over my newsfeed Thats the statement of the week for" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929707723387818155) 2025-06-03T01:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$C was converted at the typical 20-day trailing stock price - seems unlikely with $FNMA and $FMCC trading OTC. Uplisting to NYSE w/o any indication of capital restructuring - also seems unlikely. Would Treasury want to avoid extreme volatility this late in the game or not care $C JPS converted at 85-95% of par along with Treasury PS and warrants all at the same common share price with upside potential. I'll take it 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 will probably look like this: https://t.co/b8E1uLi7Bp $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ $C JPS converted at 85-95% of par along with Treasury PS and warrants all at the" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929711757020615005) 2025-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$33B of JPS par value: (a) $18B w/ divs. 7% (of which $FNMAS + $FMCKJ = $13B) + (b) $14B 7%. No need to convert/call (b) now esp. if no new capital needed or Treasury looking for max % of $FNMA and $FMCC. Maybe (a). Or just wait & see on JPS which melt up regardless. 😎 @HoldenWalker99 @carney @lesgrossman25 I agree an option. But with [--] year at 5% and preferred Div rates at 7-8% why go through all the trouble and work of issuing new preferred at close to or just below coupons Utility like returns and new capital structure would warrant preferred. @HoldenWalker99 @carney @lesgrossman25 I" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929711844039762063) 2025-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@CmoFlow Turns public risk / private gain into public-private risk / public-private gain. Like Saudi Aramco or utility model in SWF perhaps. Administrative solution to congressional inaction. Everyone better off than status quo" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929874598448799928) 2025-06-03T12:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@midas79_ @sleepydragon01 @dragonstoscale Rumor has it that next week @pulte is going to appoint Navy Guido and Rick Nagra to a board to oversee the uplist to the NYSE" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929983884445225375) 2025-06-03T19:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TheMarcusFahey They wouldnt have leaked the news before [--] PM. Did someone violate the embargo Oh boy" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1929990206574178749) 2025-06-03T19:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@CurioMargi68836 @wtxbandit @gcmarbella Rules for release can be modified. So they can take 95% of the equity (i.e. asset for the American people) and still release them from conservatorship and have the shares publicly traded. Warrants X share price = government stake is a bad shortcut" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1930012283264217340) 2025-06-03T21:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "A different view & some context for the #InBillWeBlindlyTrust & #AckmanOrDeath disciples & newcomers. at this time $FNMA need to hit $12 & $FMCC $11 (plus absorb the impact of selling 10% of the current float) for his bet to outperform the S&P [---] in the same timeframe. Recently there have been a number of media stories suggesting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together referred herein as F2) shareholders are seeking forgiveness of money that is ostensibly owed by F2 to the government in connection with their potential release from Recently there have been a number of media stories" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1930248920451490190) 2025-06-04T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The "only thing known for sure" in all of this. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ As the Trump Administration moves forward with its GSE "privatization" plan the only thing known for sure about the capital structure is that compensation of the jr preferred represents a critical path toward monetizing the common shares. 18/ As the Trump Administration moves forward with its GSE "privatization" plan the only thing known for sure about the capital structure is that compensation of the jr preferred represents a critical path toward monetizing the common shares. 18/" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1930296208356192600) 2025-06-04T16:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Hard to believe that $FNMA and $FMCC have given up all of their gains after this (which was just a week ago) - wild. Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC but I want to be clear the U.S. Government will keep Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930316347810214295) 2025-06-04T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@AfgAm_Investor @BillAckman @elonmusk Hes fine with 79.9% via warrants but apparently not more via SPS because well hes hoping that Treasury leaves some money on the table for a variety of questionable reasons" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1930607014792548698) 2025-06-05T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheMarcusFahey If you own any of this - $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. - always expect this" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1930723229045510540) 2025-06-05T20:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@NajmElie @BillAckman Compelling case for the end of conservatorship not necessarily investment in $FNMA and $FMCC. Years and years later people still dont understand the difference" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1931446400119881834) 2025-06-07T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@agkburner @pulte @POTUS Only @SecScottBessent matters" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1931787149571207186) 2025-06-08T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Senior preferred share conversion to $FNMA and $FMCC common equity changes this headline to something like "Fannie and Freddie bet pays off for some hedge funds not for others." Fannie and Freddie could make hedge funds a huge payday if they go public. One expert wants a utility model for the Fortune [---] giants https://t.co/KrT5LMhiKn Fannie and Freddie could make hedge funds a huge payday if they go public. One expert wants a utility model for the Fortune [---] giants https://t.co/KrT5LMhiKn" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1932425794195759238) 2025-06-10T13:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Reminder: Treasury doesn't think that a write down or forgiveness of the senior preferred shares is legal. From Treasury sources indirectly and Mark Calabria directly. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1932425796389310599) 2025-06-10T13:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@agkburner With history as a guide shareholders (of companies in government conservatorship with iron clad legislation like HERA as backup) don't win vs. government" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1932456124705640951) 2025-06-10T15:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DwhDwh52 @MustardNoMayo $0.00001 per share for $FNMA and $FMCC warrants" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1932863167425884598) 2025-06-11T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Good article from @joelight (although obviously many won't be a fan of the headline from editors). Usual suspects arguing for status quo. Capstone puts odds of privatization at 80%. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Taking Fannie and Freddie Public Is Trumps Dream. It Might Be Just a Fantasy. https://t.co/f3BzNzYdUo Taking Fannie and Freddie Public Is Trumps Dream. It Might Be Just a Fantasy. https://t.co/f3BzNzYdUo" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1933138603363742008) 2025-06-12T12:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Say it again and louder for those who can't hear in the back $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ These people still won't hear it though. The least appreciated detail of Trump 1.0's attempt to release Fannie and Freddie from government control is that Treasury determined waiving the senior preferreds was illegal. Instead they considered putting them at the same level as the juniors and convert it all to common The least appreciated detail of Trump 1.0's attempt to release Fannie and Freddie from government control is that Treasury determined waiving the senior preferreds was illegal. Instead they" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1933262696650076586) 2025-06-12T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@F2Truth @midas79_ Technically true. There is no EXISTING conversion right. But thats easily fixed with an amendment to the PSPA. Its just paperwork" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1933483105144262764) 2025-06-13T11:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Fanniegate101 @VoltaireMSO @pulte @SecScottBessent @SenWarren @RodDMartin This board has met every quarter since [----] and I can't recall anything ever coming out of it. Rod D. Martin doesn't have insider information and Politico may just be amplifying people's reactions to Pulte's tweet. Could something come out of it Maybe. But don't count on it" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1934619313153175876) 2025-06-16T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Another letter from the Senate. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20250616%20Letter%20to%20Agencies%20re_%20FHFA%20Board%20Meeting%20Enterprises%20pdf.pdf A handful of Democratic senators are asking key government officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for information regarding a meeting where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be discussed https://t.co/GOXSw2mXUI https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20250616%20Letter%20to%20Agencies%20re_%20FHFA%20Board%20Meeting%20Enterprises%20pdf.pdf A handful of Democratic senators are asking key" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1934713356276977705) 2025-06-16T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Maybe they haven't met every quarter like they were supposed to. Strange that Watt held the meetings but Calabria (especially) and Thompson didn't (or did they just not publish agenda/minutes). Is Pulte just following the law Or is something happening @SenateBanking are mad This board established by the HERA has met every quarter since [----]. Answer to the riddle: first = Pultes. 🚂🚂🚂 $FNMA $FMCC This board established by the HERA has met every quarter since [----]. Answer to the riddle: first = Pultes. 🚂🚂🚂 $FNMA $FMCC" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1934719435169739217) 2025-06-16T21:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@agkburner @Fanniegate101 @firewill65 @VoltaireMSO @pulte @SecScottBessent @SenWarren @RodDMartin @FreedomDayna People have been looking forward to the next meeting or hearing or earnings call or conference or whatever for over a decade and nothing ever happens. But none of this shit matters anymore. Its probably happening at some point in the next few years and well know more soon" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1934745327560519869) 2025-06-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PhiloTheol @rule_of_law_guy @SenateBanking No one has credibility. Price action ahead of Mnuchin's LA foreshadowed that nothing was happening so I trimmed a bit & sold immediately after the LA release. I never "pumped" just gave a wrong opinion on prob. of admin. reform & bailed thereafter (wasn't betting on SCOTUS)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1934942325353975990) 2025-06-17T11:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "TWO WEEKS $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ The FHFA HUD Treasury and SEC Chair meeting has been delayed. $FNMA $FMCC long hold. what's another week The FHFA HUD Treasury and SEC Chair meeting has been delayed. $FNMA $FMCC long hold. what's another week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935058644413947970) 2025-06-17T19:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ScottCov123 @Snarkytrashpan2 No significance at all. People have been posting job opening at Fannie and Freddie for over a decade as some indication on the release from conservatorship" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1935381284785713459) 2025-06-18T16:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DoNotLose $FNMAS and $FMCKJ are trading at 75% probability of par in [--] years (15% CAGR) or [--] years (10% CAGR). Seems about right to me. Meanwhile many people are saying that $FNMA and $FMCC are currently overvalued" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937288281131225189) 2025-06-23T23:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@T_Castelluccio Yes. For sure many ways to go but I think they may need to show $340B on paper somewhere even if the initial common equity conversion gets diluted by lower retained earnings for x years or additional equity raises" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937512024692396501) 2025-06-24T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RiparianMan88 Unless youre a pre-2008 shareholder you bought shares of the GSEs while they were in conservatorship after the government repeatedly screwed shareholders. If theres money to be made there will be new investors whether the old ones were screwed or not" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937516338010030216) 2025-06-24T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Market199S Point is they didnt need to consolidate the liabilities whether $1 or $7T. Also even if what youre saying is true its an easy fix w/ 79.9% of common equity and the rest as non-cumulative preferred shares that can be converted as the government sells their 79.9% down. Easy" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937517685799313469) 2025-06-24T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RiparianMan88 @MarkCalabria @joelight Good luck to you" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937520097096269946) 2025-06-24T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If youre stuck on 79.9% vs. 94.5% you can adjust the initial conversion to equity and balance of non-cumulative preferred shares split accordingly" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937525920811651392) 2025-06-24T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RiparianMan88 I fully exited my position in January [----] before the SCOTUS ruling. I did not believe in a judicial (or legislative) resolution & did not think that the Biden administration would act. I got back in again in [----] & more heavily pre-election in [----]. [----] is a long time ago" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937538267424911366) 2025-06-24T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ddserrfeer9990 @T_Castelluccio If they want to move quickly to exit their position that could make sense. What if they want to maintain significant ownership in the SWF Then slow playing for maximum %/$ makes more sense. We'll see" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937539532699680922) 2025-06-24T15:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ddserrfeer9990 @T_Castelluccio What if they don't need to raise new private capital by amending the ERCF or recapitalizing with retained earnings Again if speed is the priority this makes sense but not if they want to take their time to maximize $/%" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937539942340571533) 2025-06-24T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Ano3020100 I'm not convinced that new capital is needed. If the government want to maximize their %/$ the GSEs can recapitalize with retained earnings over time" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937542029019402269) 2025-06-24T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@chooblaykhan @Market199S If necessary they can release under consent agreement at the same time they execute the PSPA. There are so many ways for the government to do what they want to do and you just choose to ignore it" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937589294081986801) 2025-06-24T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to close by the July [--] expiration of the 90-day pause. Then Fed rate cuts. Then some news on GSE privatization and housing. Late summer preview of the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5367071-trump-waits-for-trade-deals-after-july/ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5367071-trump-waits-for-trade-deals-after-july/" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937867883951866241) 2025-06-25T13:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The midterms are an annoying potential risk to all of this but Trump [---] is working quickly. Furthermore this all could easily be packaged as a big win for the administration Republicans and taxpayers especially if/when rates come down. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to close by the July [--] expiration of the 90-day pause. Then Fed rate cuts. Then some news on GSE privatization and housing. Late summer preview of the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/8lh5AGuy5H Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937881020122247286) 2025-06-25T14:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@RiparianMan88 Wake up. The Treasury Secretary is the key stakeholder here. Trump [---] (w/ Trump and especially Calabria) wanted to release the GSEs & Mnuchin stopped it. Same story this time around. Trump [---] wants it but if Bessent says they shouldn't do it they probably won't. Reality" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937888813918953687) 2025-06-25T15:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DavidatTanteo @midas79_ If it's an issue a workaround is to sell the 94.9% down to 79.9% and hold" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1937925787279409454) 2025-06-25T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If Pulte were FHFA Director in 1999: we're finding ways for Fannie & Freddie to go online . in 2020: . develop vaccines . in 2021: . expand into cannabis Now. RTO AI & crypto Where's the focus on the mission ending the conservatorships of Fannie & Freddie" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938215711802794153) 2025-06-26T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Welcome to the fun of FHFA Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac crypto friends Don't get too caught up in the history of the 17-year GSE conservatorships. What matters now is POTUS' intent (see below) Bessent's desire to execute & how Treasury gets their $$$. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC but I want to be clear the U.S. Government will keep Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938222768308338923) 2025-06-26T13:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@pulte How will Fannie and Freddie be compensated for this" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938282680107348021) 2025-06-26T17:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@NerdcapK @pulte That's right. Thanks for the reminder" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938289703540953495) 2025-06-26T17:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Great interview and explanation of why he's invested in JPS and not common. Fun throwback to the "Mnuchin Dilution Solution." $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Matthew Halbower: Absolutely believe government will privatize Fannie and Freddie https://t.co/aF6JHRlpmI $FNMA #FANNIEGATE $1.3B of face value of preferred stock over at Pentwater https://t.co/GFpyAzjnCF Matthew Halbower: Absolutely believe government will privatize Fannie and Freddie https://t.co/aF6JHRlpmI $FNMA #FANNIEGATE $1.3B of face value of preferred stock over at Pentwater https://t.co/GFpyAzjnCF" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938303877536792999) 2025-06-26T18:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Old but relevant thread & thinking about the buffers (see below). ERCF will remain materially unchanged but is there room to modify buffers Or is Treasury fine to be heavily diluted by new capital Dividends probably need to flow sooner than later. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ A thread about Fannie and Freddie's capital levels and requirements. Each company has released their Q1 [----] 10-Q form recently and each has a new table: $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMA $FMCC 1/ https://t.co/GTqoLGflud A thread about Fannie and Freddie's capital levels and requirements. Each company has released their Q1 [----] 10-Q form" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938322464779682252) 2025-06-26T19:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@HollandStanley @familymang1 @midas79_ I agree that the capital rule is unlikely to change. On buffers0 to release it's a reasonable assumption although I think that we're talking semantics. Government needs dividends to flow more than anyone to monetize their stake so will be interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938335571300037005) 2025-06-26T20:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@QuasiVentures @DoNotLose @MariaBartiromo @MorningsMaria Much prefer something like "You'll hear from Scott Bessent soon. We're going to release them from conservatorship this year and make hundreds of billions for taxpayers. My good friends John Paulson and Holden Walker will get par for the shares soon."" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938347385685741986) 2025-06-26T21:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@LeoGoldenDoodle @midas79_ Treasury has $340B liquidation preference in the form of senior preferred shares senior to everyone which if converted to common equity is bearish for $FNMA and $FMCC. Ackman ignores this thinking that the government will just walk away from it" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938557243969962458) 2025-06-27T11:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Oh yeah What happened at the end of Trump [---] Everyone in the administration was working towards released and Mnuchin alone stopped it" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938601387899633725) 2025-06-27T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS HERA is bulletproof and allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want. If they want to restructure the PSPA to have the SPS get 10% dividend forever they can. In fact that's what happens when the buffers get filled if they leave PSPA as-is. JPS lose in this case too" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938601888255000856) 2025-06-27T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Thank you for acknowledging. We know what Trump wants to do and we know that Pulte will do whatever Trump wants to do. We don't yet know about Bessent (and Treasury's latest legal opinion) and that's most important right now" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938604529685086601) 2025-06-27T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Trump [---] did not run out of time. That's just an excuse. I believe that there's a 75%+ chance that Trump [---] ends the conservatorship. Bessent will not defy Trump on that I don't think. But Treasury will dictate the terms. That's what matters" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938606587385438444) 2025-06-27T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS It's also possible that Bessent says that the situation is so FUBAR that there's no easy way out and advises to just punt to the next administration. Under existing terms of the PSPA NWS to Treasury basically restarts once the GSEs fill the buffers. Not a bad deal for Treasury" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938606988281159975) 2025-06-27T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@agkburner @jamesjacobs7 @PhiloTheol @SecScottBessent @POTUS I'd say that there's a 25% chance that Trump's upcoming EO to draft a plan to release the GSEs will give clarity on the SPS. We may not know until the PSPA is executed which I think would be by the end of Q4. That's why it's a🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938608722374222151) 2025-06-27T14:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "A shocking # of $FNMA & $FMCC retail "investors" admitting to just blindly #YOLO piggybacking Ackman b/c he presented $30+. Some now asking - what are senior preferred what are juniors etc. - which is good but many not even aware of the damage that a PSPA amendment could do" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938618746303603003) 2025-06-27T15:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ToddHundleyFan Take your profits reinvest in preferred and relax malaka" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938630809352618173) 2025-06-27T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@joelight @MarkCalabria True as it was published but all JPS holders were/are fine w/ SPS to common. And no no protection like that. Treasury either does nothing & the NWS basically restarts in a few years or they do something that needs value to accrue to their massive common stake (& JPS get par)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938656973043703962) 2025-06-27T17:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DoNotLose Not that it really matters or you care since youre already starting the victory lap but do you think Trump comment or an imminent EO gives any clarity on the capital restructuring or timeline or will we have to wait for Treasury later this year" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938674450678874462) 2025-06-27T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Alec_Mazo Spot on. To me the key variable impacting the size of "partial" is how quickly Treasury wants to sell their stake during this administration vs. holding to accrue the value of retained earnings over several years (i.e. short-term devaluation of equity for long-term gain)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938682801282265428) 2025-06-27T19:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RiparianMan88 @joelight @MarkCalabria But more $ for Treasury to go after with their liquidation preference if they so choose" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938685948184637872) 2025-06-27T19:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Bankers100 Yes" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938743449789792701) 2025-06-27T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Laurameltem54 Unlikely. Have you seen the track record of litigation related to the GSEs Big 0-for" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938929215740555642) 2025-06-28T11:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@midas79_ @rule_of_law_guy If they have a long-term multi-year timeline they could get creative to recoup the full SPS LP. Dings JPS value on timing to dividends. But agree 100% (of course) that they will maximize their common stake to whatever they want" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938989190655385920) 2025-06-28T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PFell5 @Larryjamieson_ Unfortunately for shareholders if were being honest undoing the quagmire has more risks. But staying in the quagmire is wrong and prevents a windfall for Treasury which may be worth those risks. Plus Trump [---] is rolling (but so were Mnuchin/Calabria)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1938997022071124206) 2025-06-28T16:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "100% correct: the administration can do whatever they want. But assuming a principled resolution to undo a previous wrong while leaving tens of billions of dollars on the table may be as risky as assuming that the rule of law would prevail. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ My new substack post; GSE Recap/Release: HERA's "Best Interest" Provision is a Two-Way Ratchet. Obama Administration Used It To Destroy GSE Shareholder Value. Trump [--] Can "Reverse The Ratchet" in a GSE Recap/Release. by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/QmzocnoIwg $fnma $fmcc My new substack post; GSE Recap/Release: HERA's "Best" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939012021296730561) 2025-06-28T17:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements ".@MarkCalabria who drafted HERA & was @FHFA Director in Trump [---] wrote a paper on this: But not only did it all continue the courts also ruled that it was all legal (i.e. Treasury and FHFA can do what they want) 11K documents or not. $FNMA $FMCC https://www.cato.org/working-paper/conservatorships-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-actions-violate-hera-established-insolvency Interesting. I will look into these Obama items if available as it relates to our Agency and the GSEs. https://www.cato.org/working-paper/conservatorships-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-actions-violate-hera-established-insolvency" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939652152949182804) 2025-06-30T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TheBurgosGrp @JarndyceJ @pulte #fanniegate: the biggest story since they found that empty tomb in Jerusalem [----] year ago" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939655652982374760) 2025-06-30T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ""Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." "Treasury will determine. how all of these depressants to $FNMA and $FMCC valuation are handled while the investment community will respond to what Treasury does." $FNMA HOWARD ON MORTGAGE FINANCE Commentary on current mortgage finance issues https://t.co/nKleqSBCeP $FNMA HOWARD ON MORTGAGE FINANCE Commentary on current mortgage finance issues https://t.co/nKleqSBCeP" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939660067604767056) 2025-06-30T12:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Holler about "11K documents" all you'd like but I dont see Trump [---] leaving money on the table just because Obama/Biden put it there. BUT. they may leave something on the table if they want to monetize their stake in $FNMA & $FMCC sooner than later & not wait 5-10 years. "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." "Treasury will determine. how all of these depressants to $FNMA and $FMCC valuation are handled while the investment community will respond to what Treasury does." "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939661256903802997) 2025-06-30T12:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements ".@POTUS did not discuss Fannie Mac Freddie Mac $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ on @MorningsMaria @SundayFutures. Another reminder that pumpers & wannabee/fake "insiders" will use useful & hopeful people to spread disinformation to ignorant retail investors. Now just wait TWO WEEKS" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939672937985945743) 2025-06-30T13:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ToddHundleyFan Why sell Because after all of this time you still don't get it (e.g. thinking that re-listing on NYSE is "all that matters" - when it doesn't matter AT ALL)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939684138845368352) 2025-06-30T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In TWO WEEKS the tax bill + many peace & trade deals will be done. @POTUS made explicit comments & is committed to his agenda. @pulte was blacked out & has been mostly quiet on specifics for a reason. I'm expecting real news by end of Q3. Or. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939693260806508937) 2025-06-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "If not this risk which I think is remote given what we know right now gets a bit more real: Bessent says that the situation is so FUBAR that there's no easy way out and advises to just punt again" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939693262601691304) 2025-06-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ".@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wfKwve4J_4U https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wfKwve4J_4U" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939696037561536807) 2025-06-30T14:42Z [---] followers, 28.4K engagements "@ToddHundleyFan His risk profile is much different than yours and he took a bet at $2-3 per share over a decade ago and can't reasonably sell his 10% stake right now. He's stuck and hoping for the best. Thousands of other billionaires passed on $FNMA and $FMCC" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939696880906031486) 2025-06-30T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RobertDeClue @World_21m @TylerEHand Doesn't matter. HERA allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want with the GSEs which has been held up in court" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939697121285861862) 2025-06-30T14:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TylerEHand Doesn't matter. HERA allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want with the GSEs which has been held up in court" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939697625487253809) 2025-06-30T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Based on today's latest comments from Bessent (see below) this risk seems even less likely. I don't think Bessent would reiterate interest in "dealing with Fannie and Freddie" if he was remotely considering a punt like Mnuchin. https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939696037561536807 .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939696037561536807 .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939699151878693242) 2025-06-30T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@3pandd @ToddHundleyFan 99.9% of the reason I own $FNMA and $FMCC is as a joke. 0.01% is to have standing in all of this litigation that people keep threatening I own a bit of $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939704694231720369) 2025-06-30T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939710852174655641) 2025-06-30T15:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Market199S @ethRolando Over 94.9%+ that's true but they could go for 99.99%+ with some creativity (i.e. non-cumulative convertible preferred shares). They will take whatever they can get w/o risking the release. Common shareholders will get whatever crumbs are left" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939726466872123417) 2025-06-30T16:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BrnovichMel @GuidoPerei @pulte How long have you been a shareholder" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939736010122043523) 2025-06-30T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@agkburner @ethRolando The potential that "Treasury doesn't wipe out the SPS" is much greater than "slim" so I will continue my public service" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939744440454922728) 2025-06-30T17:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@World_21m @DoNotLose Feels like a nice stretch of +1% days. still need timeline and capital restructuring details" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939755630568644840) 2025-06-30T18:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BrnovichMel @GuidoPerei @pulte Funny. You replied "12/2008" and then deleted it to change it to "over [---] years." Either way you knowingly bought shares of a company in government conservatorship (and in your new reply after the NWS). Can't complain too much about innocence and suffering. Eyes wide open" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939763924393411012) 2025-06-30T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TylerEHand Fair enough. But even a "balance phased approach" could be 5-10 years of retained earnings accruing almost entirely to Treasury before shareholders get a sniff of fair value. Let's hope that they want to monetize sooner and don't have a decade-long strategy to maximize value" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939783300886720810) 2025-06-30T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Nowhere in the HERA and subsequent agreements is it written that @FHFA @pulte have a statutory responsibility to maximize shareholder value. Ackman is really reaching now. $FNMA $FMCC @pulte Director @pulte we share your approach to an owners mentality. When the time is right we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with you as we have some thoughts on how to maximize F2s shareholder value while minimizing the cost of mortgages for home buyers. @pulte Director @pulte we share your approach to an owners mentality. When the time is right we would welcome the opportunity to have a" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940011604931694972) 2025-07-01T11:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@BillAckman "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." Yet you model Treasury (i.e. the American people) walking away with just 70% of the common equity Leaving a lot of money on the table for. you $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940012215534313496) 2025-07-01T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ".@SecScottBessent focus on GSE reform: LOWER MORTGAGE RATES. Trade deals reducing tariffs & pressure on Powell + announcing a successor committed to lower rates will result in lower mortgage rates. This is the easy part. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940030277125918961) 2025-07-01T12:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ".@SecScottBessent focus on GSE reform: LOWER MBS-UST SPREADS. This is the hard part w/ QE unlikely & short-term rate volatility. Expanding Fannie & Freddie retained portfolios helps but the last PSPA LA lowered. That would help a bit. What else $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940032472122531867) 2025-07-01T12:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Final_Boss79 @FHFA @pulte Preach (but it doesn't matter)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940060387761623212) 2025-07-01T14:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TheBurgosGrp @cryptoconsult14 Citigroup AIG and General Motors. Now sit down" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940112211768180954) 2025-07-01T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@lesgrossman25 @SecScottBessent Fair. They can talk about spreads any way that they want after the fact especially if headline mortgage rates are lower. But I'm curious to see how they let the GSEs manage their retained portfolios. which could be telling w/ approach for future earnings risk scope etc" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940113572178403449) 2025-07-01T18:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TheBurgosGrp @cryptoconsult14 You got me - if you hold for [----] years $FNMA and $FMCC may outperform $FNMAS and $FMCKJ. ☮" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940122801316499862) 2025-07-01T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Streak of a few days now. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed). We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940164801910456336) 2025-07-01T21:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Im in. The golden share seems like reasonable consideration to get Treasury to take 90%+ of the common equity and leave some $ on the table vs. some destructive plan to get their intractable current claim of 100%+. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ My latest substack post: GSE Recap/Release: The Substance and Optics of Cancelling Treasury's Senior Preferred Stock in Exchange for a "Golden Share" by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/wyYuJTtrBQ $fnma $fmcc My latest substack post: GSE Recap/Release: The Substance and Optics of Cancelling Treasury's Senior Preferred Stock in Exchange for a "Golden Share" by" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940200780386173289) 2025-07-02T00:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940207338339934632) 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, 15.7K engagements "Mark Calabria trusted & experienced voice in the room - Trump [---] @FHFA Dir. & Trump [---] OMB Dir. drafted HERA in [----] & led the GSE release effort in Trump [---] currently involved in the latest plans with @pulte et al. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (2/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1872710357732802846 1:01:45 "I don't know of any scenario where you know the American taxpayer doesn't own [--] plus percent of the companies." PSA: 90+% ownership (or any other number higher than 79.9%) means SPS conversion not writedown. Calibrate your expectations accordingly. $FNMA $FMCC" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207340151873693) 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "John Paulson Trump inner circle advisor & influencer - Finalist for Trump [---] Treasury Secretary role (declined) major fundraiser for Trump [---] & [---] prime seating @ Trump [---] inauguration long-time GSE reform advocate. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (3/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1889335593043112400 @AJullianny @BillAckman SPS conversion preventing exit isn't a fact it's an opinion. One you and Ackman evidently share but one I disagree with. John Paulson saying UST will own 90-95% of the common was on TV. Start at 1:07. UST can't get to 90-95% without SPS conversion. https://t.co/CWz1P67A3A" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207342219665886) 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Jim Millstein preeminent restructuring professional who has been there and done that - Principal architect of AIG restructuring & recapitalizationformer Chief Restructuring Officer at Treasury too much more to list.$FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (4/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1932509809116581914 @DenverCanfield imo AIG is the playbook here where UST took the highest % ownership they could without triggering shareholder lawsuits against BOD. Jim Millstein (architect of AIG restructuring) recently said UST will own 92-94% of FnF common. I saw that as a big tell. https://t.co/k31Qh3Esh2" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207344211960306) 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@World_21m I don't mean 80%. And Pulte doesn't get to decide. Plus I think that he was just referring to the warrants the only fixed compensation for Treasury so far. Read my latest thread" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940209739545432564) 2025-07-02T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "AIG model (i.e. max %) plus a golden share for fun. By far the most likely outcome. Goodnight. Search "@midas79_+AIG" for some good content on the topic but don't spam him please. A little more than TWO WEEKS until the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ @jamesjacobs7 @HoldenWalker99 @FHFA @pulte @BillAckman 95% of 100% 80% of 100% in any reorganization since the beginning of time. This will be no different. AIG is the model that will be clearly followed it worked like a charm. SPS was converted to equity. @jamesjacobs7 @HoldenWalker99 @FHFA @pulte @BillAckman 95% of 100% 80% of 100%" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940225040727105827) 2025-07-02T01:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ToddHundleyFan Kyrie eleison" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940355018517033278) 2025-07-02T10:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If you think that Pulte will discuss anything that will impact $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ you're a hopium addict. We are thinking of holding a press conference tomorrow or Thursday. I will let you know. We are thinking of holding a press conference tomorrow or Thursday. I will let you know" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940386285727920244) 2025-07-02T12:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TheBurgosGrp @MIA95629998 @midas79_ JPS made whole with old common impaired for a long time if you bought ahead of the restructuring. Sure hold for [---] years and you will make a greater nominal return. If you have eyeballs check this out" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940391570743926818) 2025-07-02T12:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RiparianMan88 @willamtheblind @midas79_ Ackman on July [--] [----] basically: "My support of Dean Phillips isn't tracking and Joe Biden is a vegetable so now that everyone is rallying around Donald Trump after he got shot I am formally endorsing him for President." Stunning and brave. Or vapid endorsement The latter" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940417016147681772) 2025-07-02T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Fanniegate101 @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 @midas79_ Indeed. Mentioned it once when he opened his JPS position and then basically ignored it thereafter (while casually saying there could be downside possibilities w/o explaining). @midas79_ had a good post about this yesterday: https://x.com/midas79_/status/1940223599325159475 Those who are in this trade because of Ackman should pay attention to his hedging strategy. He bought 11M JPS shares (I assume all $FNMAS for simplicity) in 2017-8 cost basis $6 as a hedge against 180M $FNMA and $FMCC shares (cost basis $2.40). https://t.co/VONpLENpLg" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940417572970914201) 2025-07-02T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@usnavycmdr @pulte I get that but those are shareholder issues not issues for FHFA or Treasury to consider w/ regard to safety & soundness or any aspect of their current mission. When release & recapitalization announced that's when getting off OTC will matter. Until then risks of OTC remain" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940420363596464236) 2025-07-02T14:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 10-year timeline for Treasury to monetize that claim. If that's the goal just do nothing & kick the can as the current PSPA basically turns the NWS back on once retained earnings fill the buffers. To monetize in the next few years Treasury can't go for the total kill" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940448601005793671) 2025-07-02T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 A few years of retained earnings to hit capital reqs. [--] more to fill buffers. More to pay down any the excess value owed equity value. Only then is common equity worth anything so Treasury can sell off unless they sell at deep deep discount" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940454950846570641) 2025-07-02T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 If you look at the last Mnuchin/Calabria PSPA LA once retained earnings fill buffers the NWS basically goes back into play 10% or NWS on the gazillion $ SPS LP which is 100% of the retained earnings. So doing nothing now results in this later" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940455488854061322) 2025-07-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 I'm saying that if they want to go for the kill and max $ vs. % they should just do nothing and let the PSPA LA kick in again. Same result maybe better and less risk. But. since they seem intent to act they'll need to leave some $ on table (and go for max % and grow GSEs)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940460521494663372) 2025-07-02T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RiparianMan88 @The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind Millstein was added due to his previous role at Treasury as the Chief Restructuring Officer because well you know this is going to be a restructuring by Treasury" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940488954039750879) 2025-07-02T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TylerEHand @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac The opposite. Warrants only w/ SPS repaid = best short-term share price. Over the longest time horizon Treasury maximizes by taking 99.9% and adding non-cumulative JPS on top so all retained earnings accrue only to Treasury's stake for the rest of time" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940505514900869493) 2025-07-02T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DavidatTanteo @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac Calabria and Paulson" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940506724898951622) 2025-07-02T20:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Unlike many I can admit when I am wrong. good job good effort. see you next week $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed). We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940510893181415738) 2025-07-02T20:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ToddHundleyFan @Fanniegate101 @AlanZhang0121 He can't reasonably sell his common stake under the current circumstances. That would require a major liquidity event like post-PSPA amendment release from conservatorship and capital restructuring" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940767206151016475) 2025-07-03T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@T_Castelluccio @midas79_ @P_Egberts @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac A) Best case ERCF buffers get modified to allow payout at lower levels of capital. Otherwise significant new capital & retained earnings needed for dividends to resume in the next 2-3 years. B) Agree. Just do nothing as PSPA LA basically brings back the NWS once buffers filled" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940775946539487643) 2025-07-03T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Final_Boss79 @GuidoPerei @SecScottBessent @RepJeffries @TheDemocrats Silly talk" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940799859780735195) 2025-07-03T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "President Trump control may not mean a forever golden share it could just mean through January [----] until Treasury sells most of its stake. The way Pulte describes it is negative for investor sentiment given the ongoing risk of political shenanigans. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ President Trump is the ultimate decision maker on if how and when to take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. He is the best deal maker in history. He will make the best decision and in all scenarios President Trump will stay in control of Fannie and Freddie. President Trump is the ultimate decision maker on if how and" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942207524586803286) 2025-07-07T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942207777440424140) 2025-07-07T13:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Toad1212 Yeah even for an optimistic like me I'm taking some/a lot of profits at 70%" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942211922117406858) 2025-07-07T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@agkburner Increase CET1 capital. Dividend flexibility. Easier to sell common post-restructuring w/o a layer of capital senior to common. Existing litigation settled. Flexibility to raise more via JPS later. No-brainer" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942214094456557622) 2025-07-07T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@lesgrossman25 Existing ERCF restricts payout at lower levels of buffers. This could be fixed with an edit to the rule or more common equity dilution via "IPO" but I'm thinking [----] for dividends to resume (and longer if Treasury wants to go for the kill and extract maximum value)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942214931928985954) 2025-07-07T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Why convert $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. - Increase CET1 capital for zero cash by $FNMA & $FMCC - Easier to sell common post-restructuring w/o a layer of capital senior to common - Existing litigation settled - Dividend flexibility - Flexibility to raise more via JPS later No-brainer In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942216478649974951) 2025-07-07T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "JPS conversion is likely off the table if/when Treasury converts SPS to 90%+ of $FNMA & $FMCC. Either way SPS conversion or SPS write-off w/ JPS conversion existing common left with 10%. Don't blame me - it's just math. Remember: Capital structures matter in restructurings. In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942219216519606732) 2025-07-07T13:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@RiparianMan88 The future discount = short-term issue. The more existing shareholders get screwed the more pie is left for the key stakeholders - Treasury & new capital. Existing shareholders aren't contributing anything JPS included (who only get a free ride b/c capital structures matter)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942254163758346375) 2025-07-07T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Cameth2011 @pulte @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @FannieMae @POTUS @howardlutnick #NewsFlash: Mortgage rates are tied to interest rates" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942316430415868292) 2025-07-07T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ScottCov123 @midas79_ @pulte Whats important is Treasury getting paid as much as reasonable to facilitate a successful release from conservatorship and recapitalization with no increase to mortgage rates of MBS-UST spreads" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942330552406737032) 2025-07-07T21:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@midas79_ @ScottCov123 @pulte If JPS holders knew that Mnuchin was about to flake out and SCOTUS was a loser they would have taken it. Now I guess Bessent could negotiate to freeze JPS out forever and not do anything unless they take a similar haircut to the SPS. Unnecessary game of chicken perhaps" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942332001379348599) 2025-07-07T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@sedatiko @agkburner New shareholders wants existing shareholders as diluted as possible. And you may not need new investors w/ a rights offering to JPS shareholders to buy more common at the conversion price or a private offering to help with the recapitalization. Enjoy your crumbs" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942386530456117258) 2025-07-08T00:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@timpagliara @T_Castelluccio I think you're mixing up J & S. Convert./elim. SPS helps CET1. Converting JPS to common helps CET1 b/c JPS currently Tier [--] not CET1. CET1 = *COMMON EQUITY* Tier [--]. JPS are Tier [--] not CET1. CET1 is part of Tier [--] but not the other way around. SPS is a drag on CET1. All facts" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942515268724420808) 2025-07-08T09:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some Basel/ERCF & restructuring fun: - CET1 = *COMMON EQUITY* Tier [--] - JPS = AT1 (Additional Tier 1) - Tier [--] = CET1 Common + AT1 JPS - Convert./elim. SPS helps CET1 as SPS is a drag on CET1 - Convert. JPS to common helps CET1 b/c JPS currently Tier [--] not CET1 - CET1 is key" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942521053470736736) 2025-07-08T09:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ScottCov123 @carney @midas79_ @pulte We're all discussing the R-word just saying that it's unlikely. R leads to more volatility than status quo or release and w/o legislation the same duopoly exists. R is clean but unnecessary and unlikely at this time. Even @carney would reluctantly agree" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942521940440408217) 2025-07-08T09:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ".@carney: Correct on GSE litigation. Likely correct on SPS conversion to $FNMA & $FMCC common vs. write-down. Close connection to Bessent. Also calling for receivership but I suspect thats a principled not a practical suggestion as it doesnt make a lot of sense because @JohnCarey17 @midas79_ @ScottCov123 @HoldenWalker99 @pulte I was president of the federalist society at Penn and Im a not-very-active member now. Im deeply versed in textualist interpretation although I know consider my own approach to be something closer to common sense constitutionalism. This is one of the reasons Ive been" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942563869844811868) 2025-07-08T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the same duopoly. Of all options R has the MOST volatile impact to mortgage rates & MBS-UST spreads which Bessent calls out as key objectives w/ GSE reform. Status quo is the most likely bear case for shareholders not R" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942563872340357598) 2025-07-08T12:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Status quo works fine for all excl. shareholders of $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. Under the existing PSPA once ERCF buffers hit Treasury gets 100% of GSE profit forever early/mid 2030s. Risk-reward to release GSEs is a toss up but it seems that Trump [---] WANTS to do it Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the same duopoly. Of all options R has the MOST volatile impact to mortgage rates & MBS-UST spreads which Bessent calls out as key objectives w/ GSE reform. Status quo is the most likely bear case for shareholders not R. Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942569489813377146) 2025-07-08T13:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Easier way for Treasury to crack this nut (similar to AIG) & skipping theoretical valuations: take $340B SPS LP/$8 (i.e. 20/30-day MA)=43B shares. They'll want to bring JPS into common with SPS but that's a 25% haircut. 88% or 95% UST 9% or 0% JPS & 4% or 5% existing common. If Treasury needs to claim their $340B loosely speaking convert $285B for 95% of $FNMA $FMCC e.g. $300B valuation $8/share & keep $55B as SPS @ 10% that can be called in 2-3 years w/ retained earnings or sooner w/ new capital raise. Dividends resume thereafter. Issues If Treasury needs to claim their $340B loosely" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942572271463170351) 2025-07-08T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Reasonable but a little more patient than I am. Given comments to date if we don't hear from Bessent by the end of the year concern is warranted. I'm looking at Q4 [----] like Q4 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942574395060326876) 2025-07-08T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Pulte Bessent & Trump [---] still defending in court. That's all I need to know to take Not-POTUS Trump's letter & toss it w/ regard to steal socialism tragedy etc. Different story once you're POTUS. Intent to release remains very strong but don't expect "fairness" to prevail. Fannie/Freddie Consolidated Class Action The parties delivered their proposed briefing schedule to the D.C. Circuit yesterday saying they plan to complete briefing by Feb. [--] [----]. A copy of the joint proposal https://t.co/65dDiPAO8d $FNMA #FANNIEGATE https://t.co/oSlAnf90yJ Fannie/Freddie Consolidated Class Action The" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942577186323493078) 2025-07-08T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbrandimore @DoNotLose Yes. The financial liability for Treasury FHFA and GSEs isn't material (esp. given how much $ the government will get to offset it) and a proper restructuring may result in the resolution of all open litigation. Also AIG restructured and recapitalized with litigation overhang" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942580495704858951) 2025-07-08T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@agkburner Ackman argues that the government will prioritize "fairness" in the capital restructuring (LOL) when there's no evidence of that plus ignores the following statements made by people more "in the know" than he https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207338339934632 🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942645079283491175) 2025-07-08T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@seolovely23 @lesgrossman25 Hello bot lady. Ackman argues that the government will prioritize "fairness" in the capital restructuring (LOL) when there's no evidence of that plus ignores the following statements made by people more "in the know" than he https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207338339934632 🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942645194681135223) 2025-07-08T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GSE_NewsToday $37T in debt and counting. every bit helps" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942967369933996152) 2025-07-09T15:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GSE_NewsToday Junior preferred shares par value is neatly defined by contract and I'll pay my fair share of capital gains tax. Treasury not only needs and/or wants $FNMA and $FMCC equity value but they have legal claims to over 100% of it. Yikes" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942972560158904809) 2025-07-09T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GSE_NewsToday @pulte Easy: equity vs. debt. Next" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942995099106906357) 2025-07-09T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fannie and Freddie spent an astonishing $2B on the CSS: Who knows what the value to $FNMA and $FMCC could be once spun off. Treasury ultimately may get 90%+ of the value anyways. https://www.fhfaoig.gov/Content/Files/OIG-2019-005%20Special%20Report%20on%20the%20Common%20Securitization%20Platform_Redacted.pdf One of Fannie & Freddies most undervalued assets is a little known company CSS. It being little known changes TODAY Weve created U.S. Fin Tech to hold CSS and sell our MBS Fin Tech Services to others - thanks to President Trump this will unlock so much value for America" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1942997877737034153) 2025-07-09T17:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@timpagliara @compound248 @T_Castelluccio Please see the following references from the Bank for International Settlements and U.S. Congress showing that Tier [--] = CET1 common equity/retained earnings + AT1 non-cum. JPS/other. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47447 https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/chapter/CAP/10.htminforce=20191215&published=20200605 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47447 https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/chapter/CAP/10.htminforce=20191215&published=20200605" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943265063017615667) 2025-07-10T11:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@eoyvo43515267 Not true at all. Release and recapitalization doesn't equal price appreciation for $FNMA or $FMCC (which could forever be loser from today's prices). Possibly not for years with JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT etc. (which may be below par for years under some scenarios)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943275581761638498) 2025-07-10T11:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""The Pentagon is buying. preferred shares convertible into. common stock in addition to a warrant that allows the U.S. to buy additional common stock." Sneak peek at how Treasury can get creative to maximize SPS LP into $FNMA & $FMCC common equity. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/10/pentagon-to-become-largest-shareholder-in-rare-earth-magnet-maker-mp-materials.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/10/pentagon-to-become-largest-shareholder-in-rare-earth-magnet-maker-mp-materials.html" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943304367395799246) 2025-07-10T13:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ben_franklin_x @pulte @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump @BillAckman Government golden share in Nippon Steel. Pentagon major shareholder in MP Materials. Watch out" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943307062982660322) 2025-07-10T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Maybe Treasury's defaults to a K.I.S.S. approach and a lot of shareholders will think something like this is overkill but the C & AIG restructurings dealt with a lot of different types of equity and debt so can't assume anything is off the table" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943311227796504757) 2025-07-10T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@lesgrossman25 If SPS LP is $340B they take 95% of common equity (e.g. $285B) then $55B $340B - $285B is left as convertible JPS that can be sold or converted once Treasury sells down 95%. It's just if they need (or want) to show $340B on paper" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943312070797115778) 2025-07-10T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "It's becoming clear that Trump [---] will end the conservatorships of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. I was at 75% chance now 90%. How that impacts $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT etc. That's where you need to do the work. Release does not necessarily equal shareholder profit" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943317798656098325) 2025-07-10T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DoNotLose I keep struggling to find ways to support a contrarian view on release. All I have at this point is Bessent coming back to Trump later this year and saying "this is FUBAR just punt to the next guy." Too many things underway. And way more advanced and prepared vs. Trump 1.0" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943322186636292210) 2025-07-10T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@midas79_ @mark_7091 Also the hard-to-quantify progression of some investors to plow into $FNMA then $FMCC then $FNMAS / $FMCKJ then to other JPS" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943386878087999650) 2025-07-10T19:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JohnDee78791547 Just in time" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943388427795468782) 2025-07-10T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@usnavycmdr Billionaire math I guess because I dont get it: Treasury has $350B stake in the GSEs. If cancelled the value of their warrants could increase $280B. 🤪" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943743855817261497) 2025-07-11T18:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Pultes antics got him sent to the kids table while Wrase Calabria and McKernan work on the GSE plan behind the scenes. Not surprised (if true). $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ FHFAs Pulte Falls Out of Trumps In-Crowd #Securitization https://t.co/OSqotbD38E FHFAs Pulte Falls Out of Trumps In-Crowd #Securitization https://t.co/OSqotbD38E" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1943821114586677434) 2025-07-11T23:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Cleanest approach even if some JPS are cheap to keep out there. Complexity of converting all to common is how to structure the haircut (or not) for both SPS and JPS and how well JPS contracts stand up to it (or not). 90/10 split ($340B SPS LP / $33B JPS par value) seems fair to me" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1944021601495724400) 2025-07-12T13:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FHFA @pulte SPS/JPS 91%/9% split ($340B SPS LP/$33B JPS par value) with $FNMA $FMCC common at 1% seems to be what @MarkCalabrias is implying. Equal haircut for SPS/JPS. Common unfortunately barely get crumbs. Worth a listen especially last [--] minutes. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trinity-smf-podcast/id1534318333i=1000681839091 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trinity-smf-podcast/id1534318333i=1000681839091" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1944030097146577317) 2025-07-12T13:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. connections. In an interview earlier this year before he joined OMB @MarkCalabria said that a clue for Trump 2.0's GSE reform focus will be if Treasurys Head of Domestic Finance has mortgage finance experience in order to advance reform while Bessent focuses on more important issues (i.e. tax trade). (1/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944751598632120410) 2025-07-14T13:31Z [---] followers, 14.8K engagements "With the "band is getting back together" what does this mean - Plans are advancing w/o @SecScottBessent heavy involvement (unlike in Trump [---] where Mnuchin was a bottleneck requiring detailed review of everything GSE related). He will review approve and take to Trump for public release IMO by the end of the year. - Pulte gets to take a back seat with detailed planning which frankly isn't anywhere in his wheelhouse (and that's okay) and focus on things like his crusade against Powell crypto/FICO/etc. and caramel popcorn at Freddie Mac. Stop harassing him about uplist and the ERCF And for" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944751613815427230) 2025-07-14T13:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@3pandd @ArtWilliamsIII @koryzuck @pulte @SecScottBessent Common shares are likely a bad idea. Junior preferred may be a good idea. (And l thanks; I try.)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945113927982956758) 2025-07-15T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@gcmarbella Your list is "most influential figures for the recap and release" and Ackman is certainly not" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945131524333937142) 2025-07-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "A great way to help real socialism thrive in the U.S. is to wind down Fannie and Freddie. TBTF banks and PE firms would dominate the housing finance system and crush affordability for many. Then AOC Mamdani et al would be more popular than ever. Or just make the best out of the existing system by recapitalizing and reducing taxpayer risk" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945145019117060143) 2025-07-15T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ArtWilliamsIII @gcmarbella Ackman has no influence on Fannie and Freddie reform. But while you may never see late May [----] highs there's still time to sell before $FNMA and $FMCC shares are available at Dollar General again" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945155410031222872) 2025-07-15T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@2025Updated @SecScottBessent Ackman only endorsed Trump in July [----]. Hardly a steadfast supporter. And it's transparent that he was jumping to the winning team. He actively supported Dean Phillips a Democratic candidate. Ackman was anti-Biden not pro-Trump" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945157635663143304) 2025-07-15T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@2025Updated @MarkCalabria I would love that. But if they eliminate the buffers it will be to improve the value of Treasury's $FNMA and $FMCC (i.e. 90%+) which is why people may want to considering selling all common sooner than later" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945163056180244528) 2025-07-15T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NathanielJonesX You may be right. Treasury may not need 79.9% of $FNMA and $FMCC in warrants when they have a route to 100% with senior preferred/liquidation preference" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945208157032046808) 2025-07-15T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Conversion must consider dividend rates especially as they'll WANT to convert the premium 8%+ series (1/2 of JPS) and may not care if the sub-5% ones are left outstanding (1/2 of JPS). Also conversion increases CET1 vs. Tier [--] which is a good reason to do it but doesn't really "raise capital."" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945208659371548855) 2025-07-15T19:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NathanielJonesX @RSwearingen1980 Not a loan. An equity investment" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945221493559865370) 2025-07-15T20:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RSwearingen1980 @NathanielJonesX Not short although if $FNMAS hits 70% of par I may sell some to short $FNMA and $FMCC for the first time. That could be fun" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945221639551004707) 2025-07-15T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@davejones406 @IndependentFHFA @par $FNMAS 12/31/2025 and $FMCKJ 12/31/2027 and then not again for another [--] years. Short-term if they miss the window for $FNMAS which seems likely it should trade at a premium" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945234514613035449) 2025-07-15T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Treasury's stake in $FNMA and $FMCC towards affordable housing Oh Congress. They failed to pass GSE reform legislation for almost [--] years and now that someone finds $250+ billion they rush to spend it. before they even have it https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/07/15/new-bill-dedicates-250b-in-funds-from-fannie-freddie-sale-for-affordable-housing/ https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/07/15/new-bill-dedicates-250b-in-funds-from-fannie-freddie-sale-for-affordable-housing/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945275970031640961) 2025-07-16T00:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@lwalsh1313 @ArtWilliamsIII @POTUS @VP @SecretaryTurner @SecScottBessent @pulte Still a nice score and it will be hard to prove damages when you've made that much money What do you have for market cap for each company out of curiosity" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945277166884712616) 2025-07-16T00:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MIA95629998 @The_Jackal1997 @NathanielJonesX They could but won't. I'm talking about $340B LP" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945300270268751992) 2025-07-16T01:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Roger theres a whole group of Pulte-hating miscreants who are trying to extract contractual and legal taxpayer profits for the benefit of common shareholders of Fannie and Freddie. They sometimes call themselves The Merry Men of GSE Common. Let me know if youd like more information" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945478230963786212) 2025-07-16T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "GSE litigation risk is most likely immaterial & a non-factor. Many learned the hard way that the GSE investment thesis relies on administrative action not judicial relief. $FNMA & $FMCC shareholders banking on judicial relief shall/may be sorely disappointed (again). (1/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945494885651411219) 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The U.S. government has an endless supply of litigators; they don't care. For the GSEs release/recapitalization won't be stalled by lawsuits. AIG restructuring happened w/o issue w/ Starr overhang (and by the way litigants "won" w/ damages of ZERO dollars. $0.00). (2/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945494887702389052) 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "People like @carney nailed this all along. By the end of Trump [---] I entirely discounted judicial relief which is why I sold out pre-SCOTUS. Nice post-SCOTUS tweet by the way but enough about me. 😎 (5/6) https://x.com/calabrias_cat/status/1408513410325651460 Btw mad props to @holden who was dead right on all this. May he rip https://x.com/calabrias_cat/status/1408513410325651460 Btw mad props to @holden who was dead right on all this. May he rip" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945494893607940155) 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "History is likely to repeat itself. Unfortunate but true. Millions of dollars & thousands of hours for at best a pyrrhic victory. GSE litigation risk is immaterial & a non-factor. You would be wise to drop it from your investment thesis. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (6/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945494895726129395) 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ SCOOP: @realDonaldTrump flip flopping on the firing of Jerome Powell as @federalreserve chair reflects divisions in the administration over his authority my sources say. Some @WhiteHouse lawyers say the law is on his side but @USTreasury says its not when you look at the legal SCOOP: @realDonaldTrump flip flopping on the firing of Jerome Powell as @federalreserve chair reflects divisions in the administration over his authority my sources say. Some @WhiteHouse lawyers say the law is on" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945532128222912952) 2025-07-16T17:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Trump went from firing Powell imminently to not likely on the advise of Treasury. Treasury has a lot of influence and as Trump would say "the best lawyers tremendous tough smart winners." Make me think about Treasury's view RE: writing off SPS. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945573501181575482) 2025-07-16T19:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Fanniegate101 @agkburner Andre is a hopium addict" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945573607683375179) 2025-07-16T19:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ".@carney who has been right on almost all GSE legal issues so far and is closely linked with Bessent also agrees with Treasury by the way" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945600815583973657) 2025-07-16T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbrandimore Treasury needed something in return for allowing the GSEs to build capital" [X Link](https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1945614522493837786) 2025-07-16T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@HoldenWalker99 Holden Walker
Holden Walker posts on X about $fnma, $fmcc, $fnmas, $fmckj the most. They currently have [---] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [------] -1.10%
- [--] Month [------] -100%
- [--] Months [----------] -12%
- [--] Year [-----------] -43%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -96%
- [--] Months [-----] +175%
- [--] Year [-----] +6,724%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] no change
- [--] Month [---] +6%
- [--] Months [---] +71%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries stocks exchanges technology brands cryptocurrencies celebrities travel destinations social networks premier league
Social topic influence $fnma #32, $fmcc #28, $fnmas #4, $fmckj #1, ipo, $fnmat, common, investment, $300b, money
Top assets mentioned ForTube (FOR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"If the $341B 79.9% and/or $200B are common equity ( $FNMA $FMCC ) which is the obvious path to be worth anything $0.01 to the Treasury (i.e. American people) $33B JPS ( $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. ) par value needs to be ahead of the common equity. Capital structures matter Im doing the math on GSE trade. It aint pretty for junior preferred and its brutal for the common. $341 billion of senior preferred warrants for 79.9% of common $200 billion of additional capital need $10 billion every year for explicit guarantee. Whats left Im doing the math on GSE trade. It aint pretty for junior preferred and"
X Link 2025-05-29T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@lesgrossman25 Agree. I asked @carney to clarify his statement on the junior preferred but I doubt that he does. He's coming around to the idea of recapitalization and release (progress) but I don't think his statement on junior preferred is correct unless I am missing something (unlikely)"
X Link 2025-05-29T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@time2trade2 Did you catch "weve got to clean up the capital structure" If you're a common shareholder of $FNMA and/or $FMCC that should concern you greatly. If not you're choosing to ignore reality"
X Link 2025-05-29T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@carney @lesgrossman25 Thanks for the reply. $C is a great example with existing JPS converting at 85-95% of par at the same time as government senior preferred and warrants putting them all in the same boat at a valuation attractive to new capital and further upside. Well take it"
X Link 2025-05-29T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@high52weeks @IndependentFHFA @pulte New equity (likely required) and JPS conversion (common in capital restructuring) are dilutive to Treasury's warrant value in a vacuum but easily offset with SPS equitization that could be worth infinite shares up to 95% (or more with creativity) of the total equity pie"
X Link 2025-05-29T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheF2Twins @midas79_ You're going to be hard pressed to find shareholders with damage claims Treasury's value of SPS conversion to common equity. And then they have to retain counsel fight in court for years and win"
X Link 2025-05-29T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What if UST doesn't want to sell their stake (i.e. holds in SWF) or need new investor capital with IPO (i.e. FHFA amends ERCF + retained earnings) Then they will only care about the maximum % ownership (i.e. 95%+ vs. 79.9%) and not the short-term value of the pie. $FNMA $FMCC Surprised Tim Howards posted comments today have received little attention $fnma https://t.co/qlzl6kEo3o Surprised Tim Howards posted comments today have received little attention $fnma https://t.co/qlzl6kEo3o"
X Link 2025-05-31T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mattmazurczak @carney @lesgrossman25 Im coming around to this. Converting JPS to common equity was much more important to level the capital structure ahead of a historic IPO and when interest rates were low. Less important now"
X Link 2025-06-02T09:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Oldie but goodie and especially relevant now with much lower capital requirements. All this talk about risks to new investor capital (if SPS converted to common) can be bypassed by leveraging JPS base in a deal or private placement or just retained earnings. Ending #GSE conservatorship is not hard Do a rights offering requiring jr prefs to commit to buy equity & convert to common on IPO. Size IPO to get to statutory capital. Release from conservatorship with a consent decree until regulatory capital is met. Done @USTreasury @FHFA Ending #GSE conservatorship is not hard Do a rights offering"
X Link 2025-06-02T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 could be sooner than expected w/o a need for new capital. Just clean up the capital structure - which could happen tomorrow - and start paying dividends once FHFA ERCF rule revised thereafter. End of summer surprise Why isnt @pulte telling us Frankly the businesses dont need more capital Plastered all over my newsfeed Thats the statement of the week for sure and its only Monday @DoNotLose @midas79_ @Alec_Mazo @BillAckman @bryndonfisher Why isnt @pulte telling us Frankly the businesses dont need more capital Plastered all over my newsfeed Thats the statement of the week for"
X Link 2025-06-03T01:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$C was converted at the typical 20-day trailing stock price - seems unlikely with $FNMA and $FMCC trading OTC. Uplisting to NYSE w/o any indication of capital restructuring - also seems unlikely. Would Treasury want to avoid extreme volatility this late in the game or not care $C JPS converted at 85-95% of par along with Treasury PS and warrants all at the same common share price with upside potential. I'll take it 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 will probably look like this: https://t.co/b8E1uLi7Bp $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ $C JPS converted at 85-95% of par along with Treasury PS and warrants all at the"
X Link 2025-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$33B of JPS par value: (a) $18B w/ divs. 7% (of which $FNMAS + $FMCKJ = $13B) + (b) $14B 7%. No need to convert/call (b) now esp. if no new capital needed or Treasury looking for max % of $FNMA and $FMCC. Maybe (a). Or just wait & see on JPS which melt up regardless. 😎 @HoldenWalker99 @carney @lesgrossman25 I agree an option. But with [--] year at 5% and preferred Div rates at 7-8% why go through all the trouble and work of issuing new preferred at close to or just below coupons Utility like returns and new capital structure would warrant preferred. @HoldenWalker99 @carney @lesgrossman25 I"
X Link 2025-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@CmoFlow Turns public risk / private gain into public-private risk / public-private gain. Like Saudi Aramco or utility model in SWF perhaps. Administrative solution to congressional inaction. Everyone better off than status quo"
X Link 2025-06-03T12:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@midas79_ @sleepydragon01 @dragonstoscale Rumor has it that next week @pulte is going to appoint Navy Guido and Rick Nagra to a board to oversee the uplist to the NYSE"
X Link 2025-06-03T19:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheMarcusFahey They wouldnt have leaked the news before [--] PM. Did someone violate the embargo Oh boy"
X Link 2025-06-03T19:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@CurioMargi68836 @wtxbandit @gcmarbella Rules for release can be modified. So they can take 95% of the equity (i.e. asset for the American people) and still release them from conservatorship and have the shares publicly traded. Warrants X share price = government stake is a bad shortcut"
X Link 2025-06-03T21:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"A different view & some context for the #InBillWeBlindlyTrust & #AckmanOrDeath disciples & newcomers. at this time $FNMA need to hit $12 & $FMCC $11 (plus absorb the impact of selling 10% of the current float) for his bet to outperform the S&P [---] in the same timeframe. Recently there have been a number of media stories suggesting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together referred herein as F2) shareholders are seeking forgiveness of money that is ostensibly owed by F2 to the government in connection with their potential release from Recently there have been a number of media stories"
X Link 2025-06-04T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The "only thing known for sure" in all of this. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ As the Trump Administration moves forward with its GSE "privatization" plan the only thing known for sure about the capital structure is that compensation of the jr preferred represents a critical path toward monetizing the common shares. 18/ As the Trump Administration moves forward with its GSE "privatization" plan the only thing known for sure about the capital structure is that compensation of the jr preferred represents a critical path toward monetizing the common shares. 18/"
X Link 2025-06-04T16:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hard to believe that $FNMA and $FMCC have given up all of their gains after this (which was just a week ago) - wild. Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC but I want to be clear the U.S. Government will keep Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING"
X Link 2025-06-04T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AfgAm_Investor @BillAckman @elonmusk Hes fine with 79.9% via warrants but apparently not more via SPS because well hes hoping that Treasury leaves some money on the table for a variety of questionable reasons"
X Link 2025-06-05T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheMarcusFahey If you own any of this - $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. - always expect this"
X Link 2025-06-05T20:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@NajmElie @BillAckman Compelling case for the end of conservatorship not necessarily investment in $FNMA and $FMCC. Years and years later people still dont understand the difference"
X Link 2025-06-07T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@agkburner @pulte @POTUS Only @SecScottBessent matters"
X Link 2025-06-08T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Senior preferred share conversion to $FNMA and $FMCC common equity changes this headline to something like "Fannie and Freddie bet pays off for some hedge funds not for others." Fannie and Freddie could make hedge funds a huge payday if they go public. One expert wants a utility model for the Fortune [---] giants https://t.co/KrT5LMhiKn Fannie and Freddie could make hedge funds a huge payday if they go public. One expert wants a utility model for the Fortune [---] giants https://t.co/KrT5LMhiKn"
X Link 2025-06-10T13:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Reminder: Treasury doesn't think that a write down or forgiveness of the senior preferred shares is legal. From Treasury sources indirectly and Mark Calabria directly. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-06-10T13:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@agkburner With history as a guide shareholders (of companies in government conservatorship with iron clad legislation like HERA as backup) don't win vs. government"
X Link 2025-06-10T15:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DwhDwh52 @MustardNoMayo $0.00001 per share for $FNMA and $FMCC warrants"
X Link 2025-06-11T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Good article from @joelight (although obviously many won't be a fan of the headline from editors). Usual suspects arguing for status quo. Capstone puts odds of privatization at 80%. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Taking Fannie and Freddie Public Is Trumps Dream. It Might Be Just a Fantasy. https://t.co/f3BzNzYdUo Taking Fannie and Freddie Public Is Trumps Dream. It Might Be Just a Fantasy. https://t.co/f3BzNzYdUo"
X Link 2025-06-12T12:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Say it again and louder for those who can't hear in the back $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ These people still won't hear it though. The least appreciated detail of Trump 1.0's attempt to release Fannie and Freddie from government control is that Treasury determined waiving the senior preferreds was illegal. Instead they considered putting them at the same level as the juniors and convert it all to common The least appreciated detail of Trump 1.0's attempt to release Fannie and Freddie from government control is that Treasury determined waiving the senior preferreds was illegal. Instead they"
X Link 2025-06-12T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@F2Truth @midas79_ Technically true. There is no EXISTING conversion right. But thats easily fixed with an amendment to the PSPA. Its just paperwork"
X Link 2025-06-13T11:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Fanniegate101 @VoltaireMSO @pulte @SecScottBessent @SenWarren @RodDMartin This board has met every quarter since [----] and I can't recall anything ever coming out of it. Rod D. Martin doesn't have insider information and Politico may just be amplifying people's reactions to Pulte's tweet. Could something come out of it Maybe. But don't count on it"
X Link 2025-06-16T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another letter from the Senate. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20250616%20Letter%20to%20Agencies%20re_%20FHFA%20Board%20Meeting%20Enterprises%20pdf.pdf A handful of Democratic senators are asking key government officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for information regarding a meeting where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be discussed https://t.co/GOXSw2mXUI https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20250616%20Letter%20to%20Agencies%20re_%20FHFA%20Board%20Meeting%20Enterprises%20pdf.pdf A handful of Democratic senators are asking key"
X Link 2025-06-16T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Maybe they haven't met every quarter like they were supposed to. Strange that Watt held the meetings but Calabria (especially) and Thompson didn't (or did they just not publish agenda/minutes). Is Pulte just following the law Or is something happening @SenateBanking are mad This board established by the HERA has met every quarter since [----]. Answer to the riddle: first = Pultes. 🚂🚂🚂 $FNMA $FMCC This board established by the HERA has met every quarter since [----]. Answer to the riddle: first = Pultes. 🚂🚂🚂 $FNMA $FMCC"
X Link 2025-06-16T21:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@agkburner @Fanniegate101 @firewill65 @VoltaireMSO @pulte @SecScottBessent @SenWarren @RodDMartin @FreedomDayna People have been looking forward to the next meeting or hearing or earnings call or conference or whatever for over a decade and nothing ever happens. But none of this shit matters anymore. Its probably happening at some point in the next few years and well know more soon"
X Link 2025-06-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @rule_of_law_guy @SenateBanking No one has credibility. Price action ahead of Mnuchin's LA foreshadowed that nothing was happening so I trimmed a bit & sold immediately after the LA release. I never "pumped" just gave a wrong opinion on prob. of admin. reform & bailed thereafter (wasn't betting on SCOTUS)"
X Link 2025-06-17T11:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"TWO WEEKS $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ The FHFA HUD Treasury and SEC Chair meeting has been delayed. $FNMA $FMCC long hold. what's another week The FHFA HUD Treasury and SEC Chair meeting has been delayed. $FNMA $FMCC long hold. what's another week"
X Link 2025-06-17T19:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ScottCov123 @Snarkytrashpan2 No significance at all. People have been posting job opening at Fannie and Freddie for over a decade as some indication on the release from conservatorship"
X Link 2025-06-18T16:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DoNotLose $FNMAS and $FMCKJ are trading at 75% probability of par in [--] years (15% CAGR) or [--] years (10% CAGR). Seems about right to me. Meanwhile many people are saying that $FNMA and $FMCC are currently overvalued"
X Link 2025-06-23T23:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@T_Castelluccio Yes. For sure many ways to go but I think they may need to show $340B on paper somewhere even if the initial common equity conversion gets diluted by lower retained earnings for x years or additional equity raises"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 Unless youre a pre-2008 shareholder you bought shares of the GSEs while they were in conservatorship after the government repeatedly screwed shareholders. If theres money to be made there will be new investors whether the old ones were screwed or not"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Market199S Point is they didnt need to consolidate the liabilities whether $1 or $7T. Also even if what youre saying is true its an easy fix w/ 79.9% of common equity and the rest as non-cumulative preferred shares that can be converted as the government sells their 79.9% down. Easy"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 @MarkCalabria @joelight Good luck to you"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If youre stuck on 79.9% vs. 94.5% you can adjust the initial conversion to equity and balance of non-cumulative preferred shares split accordingly"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 I fully exited my position in January [----] before the SCOTUS ruling. I did not believe in a judicial (or legislative) resolution & did not think that the Biden administration would act. I got back in again in [----] & more heavily pre-election in [----]. [----] is a long time ago"
X Link 2025-06-24T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ddserrfeer9990 @T_Castelluccio If they want to move quickly to exit their position that could make sense. What if they want to maintain significant ownership in the SWF Then slow playing for maximum %/$ makes more sense. We'll see"
X Link 2025-06-24T15:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ddserrfeer9990 @T_Castelluccio What if they don't need to raise new private capital by amending the ERCF or recapitalizing with retained earnings Again if speed is the priority this makes sense but not if they want to take their time to maximize $/%"
X Link 2025-06-24T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ano3020100 I'm not convinced that new capital is needed. If the government want to maximize their %/$ the GSEs can recapitalize with retained earnings over time"
X Link 2025-06-24T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@chooblaykhan @Market199S If necessary they can release under consent agreement at the same time they execute the PSPA. There are so many ways for the government to do what they want to do and you just choose to ignore it"
X Link 2025-06-24T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to close by the July [--] expiration of the 90-day pause. Then Fed rate cuts. Then some news on GSE privatization and housing. Late summer preview of the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5367071-trump-waits-for-trade-deals-after-july/ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5367071-trump-waits-for-trade-deals-after-july/"
X Link 2025-06-25T13:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The midterms are an annoying potential risk to all of this but Trump [---] is working quickly. Furthermore this all could easily be packaged as a big win for the administration Republicans and taxpayers especially if/when rates come down. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to close by the July [--] expiration of the 90-day pause. Then Fed rate cuts. Then some news on GSE privatization and housing. Late summer preview of the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/8lh5AGuy5H Serious trade deal offers from almost [--] nations w/ many to"
X Link 2025-06-25T14:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 Wake up. The Treasury Secretary is the key stakeholder here. Trump [---] (w/ Trump and especially Calabria) wanted to release the GSEs & Mnuchin stopped it. Same story this time around. Trump [---] wants it but if Bessent says they shouldn't do it they probably won't. Reality"
X Link 2025-06-25T15:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DavidatTanteo @midas79_ If it's an issue a workaround is to sell the 94.9% down to 79.9% and hold"
X Link 2025-06-25T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If Pulte were FHFA Director in 1999: we're finding ways for Fannie & Freddie to go online . in 2020: . develop vaccines . in 2021: . expand into cannabis Now. RTO AI & crypto Where's the focus on the mission ending the conservatorships of Fannie & Freddie"
X Link 2025-06-26T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Welcome to the fun of FHFA Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac crypto friends Don't get too caught up in the history of the 17-year GSE conservatorships. What matters now is POTUS' intent (see below) Bessent's desire to execute & how Treasury gets their $$$. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC but I want to be clear the U.S. Government will keep Our great Mortgage Agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie"
X Link 2025-06-26T13:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@pulte How will Fannie and Freddie be compensated for this"
X Link 2025-06-26T17:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@NerdcapK @pulte That's right. Thanks for the reminder"
X Link 2025-06-26T17:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Great interview and explanation of why he's invested in JPS and not common. Fun throwback to the "Mnuchin Dilution Solution." $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Matthew Halbower: Absolutely believe government will privatize Fannie and Freddie https://t.co/aF6JHRlpmI $FNMA #FANNIEGATE $1.3B of face value of preferred stock over at Pentwater https://t.co/GFpyAzjnCF Matthew Halbower: Absolutely believe government will privatize Fannie and Freddie https://t.co/aF6JHRlpmI $FNMA #FANNIEGATE $1.3B of face value of preferred stock over at Pentwater https://t.co/GFpyAzjnCF"
X Link 2025-06-26T18:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Old but relevant thread & thinking about the buffers (see below). ERCF will remain materially unchanged but is there room to modify buffers Or is Treasury fine to be heavily diluted by new capital Dividends probably need to flow sooner than later. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ A thread about Fannie and Freddie's capital levels and requirements. Each company has released their Q1 [----] 10-Q form recently and each has a new table: $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMA $FMCC 1/ https://t.co/GTqoLGflud A thread about Fannie and Freddie's capital levels and requirements. Each company has released their Q1 [----] 10-Q form"
X Link 2025-06-26T19:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@HollandStanley @familymang1 @midas79_ I agree that the capital rule is unlikely to change. On buffers0 to release it's a reasonable assumption although I think that we're talking semantics. Government needs dividends to flow more than anyone to monetize their stake so will be interesting"
X Link 2025-06-26T20:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@QuasiVentures @DoNotLose @MariaBartiromo @MorningsMaria Much prefer something like "You'll hear from Scott Bessent soon. We're going to release them from conservatorship this year and make hundreds of billions for taxpayers. My good friends John Paulson and Holden Walker will get par for the shares soon.""
X Link 2025-06-26T21:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LeoGoldenDoodle @midas79_ Treasury has $340B liquidation preference in the form of senior preferred shares senior to everyone which if converted to common equity is bearish for $FNMA and $FMCC. Ackman ignores this thinking that the government will just walk away from it"
X Link 2025-06-27T11:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Oh yeah What happened at the end of Trump [---] Everyone in the administration was working towards released and Mnuchin alone stopped it"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS HERA is bulletproof and allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want. If they want to restructure the PSPA to have the SPS get 10% dividend forever they can. In fact that's what happens when the buffers get filled if they leave PSPA as-is. JPS lose in this case too"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Thank you for acknowledging. We know what Trump wants to do and we know that Pulte will do whatever Trump wants to do. We don't yet know about Bessent (and Treasury's latest legal opinion) and that's most important right now"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS Trump [---] did not run out of time. That's just an excuse. I believe that there's a 75%+ chance that Trump [---] ends the conservatorship. Bessent will not defy Trump on that I don't think. But Treasury will dictate the terms. That's what matters"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PhiloTheol @agkburner @SecScottBessent @POTUS It's also possible that Bessent says that the situation is so FUBAR that there's no easy way out and advises to just punt to the next administration. Under existing terms of the PSPA NWS to Treasury basically restarts once the GSEs fill the buffers. Not a bad deal for Treasury"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@agkburner @jamesjacobs7 @PhiloTheol @SecScottBessent @POTUS I'd say that there's a 25% chance that Trump's upcoming EO to draft a plan to release the GSEs will give clarity on the SPS. We may not know until the PSPA is executed which I think would be by the end of Q4. That's why it's a🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"A shocking # of $FNMA & $FMCC retail "investors" admitting to just blindly #YOLO piggybacking Ackman b/c he presented $30+. Some now asking - what are senior preferred what are juniors etc. - which is good but many not even aware of the damage that a PSPA amendment could do"
X Link 2025-06-27T15:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ToddHundleyFan Take your profits reinvest in preferred and relax malaka"
X Link 2025-06-27T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@joelight @MarkCalabria True as it was published but all JPS holders were/are fine w/ SPS to common. And no no protection like that. Treasury either does nothing & the NWS basically restarts in a few years or they do something that needs value to accrue to their massive common stake (& JPS get par)"
X Link 2025-06-27T17:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DoNotLose Not that it really matters or you care since youre already starting the victory lap but do you think Trump comment or an imminent EO gives any clarity on the capital restructuring or timeline or will we have to wait for Treasury later this year"
X Link 2025-06-27T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Alec_Mazo Spot on. To me the key variable impacting the size of "partial" is how quickly Treasury wants to sell their stake during this administration vs. holding to accrue the value of retained earnings over several years (i.e. short-term devaluation of equity for long-term gain)"
X Link 2025-06-27T19:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 @joelight @MarkCalabria But more $ for Treasury to go after with their liquidation preference if they so choose"
X Link 2025-06-27T19:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bankers100 Yes"
X Link 2025-06-27T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Laurameltem54 Unlikely. Have you seen the track record of litigation related to the GSEs Big 0-for"
X Link 2025-06-28T11:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@midas79_ @rule_of_law_guy If they have a long-term multi-year timeline they could get creative to recoup the full SPS LP. Dings JPS value on timing to dividends. But agree 100% (of course) that they will maximize their common stake to whatever they want"
X Link 2025-06-28T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PFell5 @Larryjamieson_ Unfortunately for shareholders if were being honest undoing the quagmire has more risks. But staying in the quagmire is wrong and prevents a windfall for Treasury which may be worth those risks. Plus Trump [---] is rolling (but so were Mnuchin/Calabria)"
X Link 2025-06-28T16:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"100% correct: the administration can do whatever they want. But assuming a principled resolution to undo a previous wrong while leaving tens of billions of dollars on the table may be as risky as assuming that the rule of law would prevail. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ My new substack post; GSE Recap/Release: HERA's "Best Interest" Provision is a Two-Way Ratchet. Obama Administration Used It To Destroy GSE Shareholder Value. Trump [--] Can "Reverse The Ratchet" in a GSE Recap/Release. by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/QmzocnoIwg $fnma $fmcc My new substack post; GSE Recap/Release: HERA's "Best"
X Link 2025-06-28T17:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
".@MarkCalabria who drafted HERA & was @FHFA Director in Trump [---] wrote a paper on this: But not only did it all continue the courts also ruled that it was all legal (i.e. Treasury and FHFA can do what they want) 11K documents or not. $FNMA $FMCC https://www.cato.org/working-paper/conservatorships-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-actions-violate-hera-established-insolvency Interesting. I will look into these Obama items if available as it relates to our Agency and the GSEs. https://www.cato.org/working-paper/conservatorships-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-actions-violate-hera-established-insolvency"
X Link 2025-06-30T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheBurgosGrp @JarndyceJ @pulte #fanniegate: the biggest story since they found that empty tomb in Jerusalem [----] year ago"
X Link 2025-06-30T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." "Treasury will determine. how all of these depressants to $FNMA and $FMCC valuation are handled while the investment community will respond to what Treasury does." $FNMA HOWARD ON MORTGAGE FINANCE Commentary on current mortgage finance issues https://t.co/nKleqSBCeP $FNMA HOWARD ON MORTGAGE FINANCE Commentary on current mortgage finance issues https://t.co/nKleqSBCeP"
X Link 2025-06-30T12:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Holler about "11K documents" all you'd like but I dont see Trump [---] leaving money on the table just because Obama/Biden put it there. BUT. they may leave something on the table if they want to monetize their stake in $FNMA & $FMCC sooner than later & not wait 5-10 years. "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." "Treasury will determine. how all of these depressants to $FNMA and $FMCC valuation are handled while the investment community will respond to what Treasury does." "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie"
X Link 2025-06-30T12:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
".@POTUS did not discuss Fannie Mac Freddie Mac $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ on @MorningsMaria @SundayFutures. Another reminder that pumpers & wannabee/fake "insiders" will use useful & hopeful people to spread disinformation to ignorant retail investors. Now just wait TWO WEEKS"
X Link 2025-06-30T13:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ToddHundleyFan Why sell Because after all of this time you still don't get it (e.g. thinking that re-listing on NYSE is "all that matters" - when it doesn't matter AT ALL)"
X Link 2025-06-30T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In TWO WEEKS the tax bill + many peace & trade deals will be done. @POTUS made explicit comments & is committed to his agenda. @pulte was blacked out & has been mostly quiet on specifics for a reason. I'm expecting real news by end of Q3. Or. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"If not this risk which I think is remote given what we know right now gets a bit more real: Bessent says that the situation is so FUBAR that there's no easy way out and advises to just punt again"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
".@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wfKwve4J_4U https://www.youtube.com/watchv=wfKwve4J_4U"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:42Z [---] followers, 28.4K engagements
"@ToddHundleyFan His risk profile is much different than yours and he took a bet at $2-3 per share over a decade ago and can't reasonably sell his 10% stake right now. He's stuck and hoping for the best. Thousands of other billionaires passed on $FNMA and $FMCC"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RobertDeClue @World_21m @TylerEHand Doesn't matter. HERA allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want with the GSEs which has been held up in court"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TylerEHand Doesn't matter. HERA allows FHFA and Treasury to do whatever they want with the GSEs which has been held up in court"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Based on today's latest comments from Bessent (see below) this risk seems even less likely. I don't think Bessent would reiterate interest in "dealing with Fannie and Freddie" if he was remotely considering a punt like Mnuchin. https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939696037561536807 .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1939696037561536807 .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@3pandd @ToddHundleyFan 99.9% of the reason I own $FNMA and $FMCC is as a joke. 0.01% is to have standing in all of this litigation that people keep threatening I own a bit of $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT"
X Link 2025-06-30T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed)"
X Link 2025-06-30T15:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Market199S @ethRolando Over 94.9%+ that's true but they could go for 99.99%+ with some creativity (i.e. non-cumulative convertible preferred shares). They will take whatever they can get w/o risking the release. Common shareholders will get whatever crumbs are left"
X Link 2025-06-30T16:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BrnovichMel @GuidoPerei @pulte How long have you been a shareholder"
X Link 2025-06-30T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@agkburner @ethRolando The potential that "Treasury doesn't wipe out the SPS" is much greater than "slim" so I will continue my public service"
X Link 2025-06-30T17:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@World_21m @DoNotLose Feels like a nice stretch of +1% days. still need timeline and capital restructuring details"
X Link 2025-06-30T18:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BrnovichMel @GuidoPerei @pulte Funny. You replied "12/2008" and then deleted it to change it to "over [---] years." Either way you knowingly bought shares of a company in government conservatorship (and in your new reply after the NWS). Can't complain too much about innocence and suffering. Eyes wide open"
X Link 2025-06-30T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TylerEHand Fair enough. But even a "balance phased approach" could be 5-10 years of retained earnings accruing almost entirely to Treasury before shareholders get a sniff of fair value. Let's hope that they want to monetize sooner and don't have a decade-long strategy to maximize value"
X Link 2025-06-30T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Nowhere in the HERA and subsequent agreements is it written that @FHFA @pulte have a statutory responsibility to maximize shareholder value. Ackman is really reaching now. $FNMA $FMCC @pulte Director @pulte we share your approach to an owners mentality. When the time is right we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with you as we have some thoughts on how to maximize F2s shareholder value while minimizing the cost of mortgages for home buyers. @pulte Director @pulte we share your approach to an owners mentality. When the time is right we would welcome the opportunity to have a"
X Link 2025-07-01T11:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@BillAckman "Treasurys dilemma is that it has claims on Fannie and Freddie that exceed their realizable value." Yet you model Treasury (i.e. the American people) walking away with just 70% of the common equity Leaving a lot of money on the table for. you $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-07-01T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
".@SecScottBessent focus on GSE reform: LOWER MORTGAGE RATES. Trade deals reducing tariffs & pressure on Powell + announcing a successor committed to lower rates will result in lower mortgage rates. This is the easy part. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-07-01T12:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
".@SecScottBessent focus on GSE reform: LOWER MBS-UST SPREADS. This is the hard part w/ QE unlikely & short-term rate volatility. Expanding Fannie & Freddie retained portfolios helps but the last PSPA LA lowered. That would help a bit. What else $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ https://t.co/3yGgTro8MX .@SecScottBessent on @BloombergTV at 12:00-12:45: trade deals wrapping up mid-summer and then we will focus on Fannie and Freddie $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS"
X Link 2025-07-01T12:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Final_Boss79 @FHFA @pulte Preach (but it doesn't matter)"
X Link 2025-07-01T14:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheBurgosGrp @cryptoconsult14 Citigroup AIG and General Motors. Now sit down"
X Link 2025-07-01T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@lesgrossman25 @SecScottBessent Fair. They can talk about spreads any way that they want after the fact especially if headline mortgage rates are lower. But I'm curious to see how they let the GSEs manage their retained portfolios. which could be telling w/ approach for future earnings risk scope etc"
X Link 2025-07-01T18:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheBurgosGrp @cryptoconsult14 You got me - if you hold for [----] years $FNMA and $FMCC may outperform $FNMAS and $FMCKJ. ☮"
X Link 2025-07-01T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Streak of a few days now. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed). We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is"
X Link 2025-07-01T21:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Im in. The golden share seems like reasonable consideration to get Treasury to take 90%+ of the common equity and leave some $ on the table vs. some destructive plan to get their intractable current claim of 100%+. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ My latest substack post: GSE Recap/Release: The Substance and Optics of Cancelling Treasury's Senior Preferred Stock in Exchange for a "Golden Share" by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/wyYuJTtrBQ $fnma $fmcc My latest substack post: GSE Recap/Release: The Substance and Optics of Cancelling Treasury's Senior Preferred Stock in Exchange for a "Golden Share" by"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, 15.7K engagements
"Mark Calabria trusted & experienced voice in the room - Trump [---] @FHFA Dir. & Trump [---] OMB Dir. drafted HERA in [----] & led the GSE release effort in Trump [---] currently involved in the latest plans with @pulte et al. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (2/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1872710357732802846 1:01:45 "I don't know of any scenario where you know the American taxpayer doesn't own [--] plus percent of the companies." PSA: 90+% ownership (or any other number higher than 79.9%) means SPS conversion not writedown. Calibrate your expectations accordingly. $FNMA $FMCC"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"John Paulson Trump inner circle advisor & influencer - Finalist for Trump [---] Treasury Secretary role (declined) major fundraiser for Trump [---] & [---] prime seating @ Trump [---] inauguration long-time GSE reform advocate. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (3/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1889335593043112400 @AJullianny @BillAckman SPS conversion preventing exit isn't a fact it's an opinion. One you and Ackman evidently share but one I disagree with. John Paulson saying UST will own 90-95% of the common was on TV. Start at 1:07. UST can't get to 90-95% without SPS conversion. https://t.co/CWz1P67A3A"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Jim Millstein preeminent restructuring professional who has been there and done that - Principal architect of AIG restructuring & recapitalizationformer Chief Restructuring Officer at Treasury too much more to list.$FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (4/5) https://x.com/midas79_/status/1932509809116581914 @DenverCanfield imo AIG is the playbook here where UST took the highest % ownership they could without triggering shareholder lawsuits against BOD. Jim Millstein (architect of AIG restructuring) recently said UST will own 92-94% of FnF common. I saw that as a big tell. https://t.co/k31Qh3Esh2"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@World_21m I don't mean 80%. And Pulte doesn't get to decide. Plus I think that he was just referring to the warrants the only fixed compensation for Treasury so far. Read my latest thread"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"AIG model (i.e. max %) plus a golden share for fun. By far the most likely outcome. Goodnight. Search "@midas79_+AIG" for some good content on the topic but don't spam him please. A little more than TWO WEEKS until the 🎇GSE BIG BANG🎇 $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ @jamesjacobs7 @HoldenWalker99 @FHFA @pulte @BillAckman 95% of 100% 80% of 100% in any reorganization since the beginning of time. This will be no different. AIG is the model that will be clearly followed it worked like a charm. SPS was converted to equity. @jamesjacobs7 @HoldenWalker99 @FHFA @pulte @BillAckman 95% of 100% 80% of 100%"
X Link 2025-07-02T01:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ToddHundleyFan Kyrie eleison"
X Link 2025-07-02T10:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If you think that Pulte will discuss anything that will impact $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ you're a hopium addict. We are thinking of holding a press conference tomorrow or Thursday. I will let you know. We are thinking of holding a press conference tomorrow or Thursday. I will let you know"
X Link 2025-07-02T12:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheBurgosGrp @MIA95629998 @midas79_ JPS made whole with old common impaired for a long time if you bought ahead of the restructuring. Sure hold for [---] years and you will make a greater nominal return. If you have eyeballs check this out"
X Link 2025-07-02T12:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 @willamtheblind @midas79_ Ackman on July [--] [----] basically: "My support of Dean Phillips isn't tracking and Joe Biden is a vegetable so now that everyone is rallying around Donald Trump after he got shot I am formally endorsing him for President." Stunning and brave. Or vapid endorsement The latter"
X Link 2025-07-02T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Fanniegate101 @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 @midas79_ Indeed. Mentioned it once when he opened his JPS position and then basically ignored it thereafter (while casually saying there could be downside possibilities w/o explaining). @midas79_ had a good post about this yesterday: https://x.com/midas79_/status/1940223599325159475 Those who are in this trade because of Ackman should pay attention to his hedging strategy. He bought 11M JPS shares (I assume all $FNMAS for simplicity) in 2017-8 cost basis $6 as a hedge against 180M $FNMA and $FMCC shares (cost basis $2.40). https://t.co/VONpLENpLg"
X Link 2025-07-02T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@usnavycmdr @pulte I get that but those are shareholder issues not issues for FHFA or Treasury to consider w/ regard to safety & soundness or any aspect of their current mission. When release & recapitalization announced that's when getting off OTC will matter. Until then risks of OTC remain"
X Link 2025-07-02T14:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 10-year timeline for Treasury to monetize that claim. If that's the goal just do nothing & kick the can as the current PSPA basically turns the NWS back on once retained earnings fill the buffers. To monetize in the next few years Treasury can't go for the total kill"
X Link 2025-07-02T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 A few years of retained earnings to hit capital reqs. [--] more to fill buffers. More to pay down any the excess value owed equity value. Only then is common equity worth anything so Treasury can sell off unless they sell at deep deep discount"
X Link 2025-07-02T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 If you look at the last Mnuchin/Calabria PSPA LA once retained earnings fill buffers the NWS basically goes back into play 10% or NWS on the gazillion $ SPS LP which is 100% of the retained earnings. So doing nothing now results in this later"
X Link 2025-07-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind @RiparianMan88 I'm saying that if they want to go for the kill and max $ vs. % they should just do nothing and let the PSPA LA kick in again. Same result maybe better and less risk. But. since they seem intent to act they'll need to leave some $ on table (and go for max % and grow GSEs)"
X Link 2025-07-02T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 @The_Jackal1997 @midas79_ @willamtheblind Millstein was added due to his previous role at Treasury as the Chief Restructuring Officer because well you know this is going to be a restructuring by Treasury"
X Link 2025-07-02T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TylerEHand @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac The opposite. Warrants only w/ SPS repaid = best short-term share price. Over the longest time horizon Treasury maximizes by taking 99.9% and adding non-cumulative JPS on top so all retained earnings accrue only to Treasury's stake for the rest of time"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DavidatTanteo @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac Calabria and Paulson"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Unlike many I can admit when I am wrong. good job good effort. see you next week $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative action increasing & just a time value discount once PSPA is executed). We'll probably continue to see $FNMA $FMCC traders heading for the exits (w/ profits made & SPS LP overhang too risky) and JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT continuing to melt up (w/ likelihood of administrative"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ToddHundleyFan @Fanniegate101 @AlanZhang0121 He can't reasonably sell his common stake under the current circumstances. That would require a major liquidity event like post-PSPA amendment release from conservatorship and capital restructuring"
X Link 2025-07-03T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@T_Castelluccio @midas79_ @P_Egberts @BillAckman @FannieMae @FreddieMac A) Best case ERCF buffers get modified to allow payout at lower levels of capital. Otherwise significant new capital & retained earnings needed for dividends to resume in the next 2-3 years. B) Agree. Just do nothing as PSPA LA basically brings back the NWS once buffers filled"
X Link 2025-07-03T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Final_Boss79 @GuidoPerei @SecScottBessent @RepJeffries @TheDemocrats Silly talk"
X Link 2025-07-03T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"President Trump control may not mean a forever golden share it could just mean through January [----] until Treasury sells most of its stake. The way Pulte describes it is negative for investor sentiment given the ongoing risk of political shenanigans. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ President Trump is the ultimate decision maker on if how and when to take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. He is the best deal maker in history. He will make the best decision and in all scenarios President Trump will stay in control of Fannie and Freddie. President Trump is the ultimate decision maker on if how and"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Toad1212 Yeah even for an optimistic like me I'm taking some/a lot of profits at 70%"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@agkburner Increase CET1 capital. Dividend flexibility. Easier to sell common post-restructuring w/o a layer of capital senior to common. Existing litigation settled. Flexibility to raise more via JPS later. No-brainer"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@lesgrossman25 Existing ERCF restricts payout at lower levels of buffers. This could be fixed with an edit to the rule or more common equity dilution via "IPO" but I'm thinking [----] for dividends to resume (and longer if Treasury wants to go for the kill and extract maximum value)"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Why convert $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. - Increase CET1 capital for zero cash by $FNMA & $FMCC - Easier to sell common post-restructuring w/o a layer of capital senior to common - Existing litigation settled - Dividend flexibility - Flexibility to raise more via JPS later No-brainer In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9%"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"JPS conversion is likely off the table if/when Treasury converts SPS to 90%+ of $FNMA & $FMCC. Either way SPS conversion or SPS write-off w/ JPS conversion existing common left with 10%. Don't blame me - it's just math. Remember: Capital structures matter in restructurings. In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9% there's now "room" to convert $33B JPS to common for an easy increase of $33B CET1 for "free." So using $300B valuation Treasury 79.9% JPS 11% & existing common 9%. 100% upside for all: $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ In a "SPS fully repaid" scenario w/ warrants @ 79.9%"
X Link 2025-07-07T13:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@RiparianMan88 The future discount = short-term issue. The more existing shareholders get screwed the more pie is left for the key stakeholders - Treasury & new capital. Existing shareholders aren't contributing anything JPS included (who only get a free ride b/c capital structures matter)"
X Link 2025-07-07T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Cameth2011 @pulte @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @FannieMae @POTUS @howardlutnick #NewsFlash: Mortgage rates are tied to interest rates"
X Link 2025-07-07T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ScottCov123 @midas79_ @pulte Whats important is Treasury getting paid as much as reasonable to facilitate a successful release from conservatorship and recapitalization with no increase to mortgage rates of MBS-UST spreads"
X Link 2025-07-07T21:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@midas79_ @ScottCov123 @pulte If JPS holders knew that Mnuchin was about to flake out and SCOTUS was a loser they would have taken it. Now I guess Bessent could negotiate to freeze JPS out forever and not do anything unless they take a similar haircut to the SPS. Unnecessary game of chicken perhaps"
X Link 2025-07-07T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@sedatiko @agkburner New shareholders wants existing shareholders as diluted as possible. And you may not need new investors w/ a rights offering to JPS shareholders to buy more common at the conversion price or a private offering to help with the recapitalization. Enjoy your crumbs"
X Link 2025-07-08T00:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@timpagliara @T_Castelluccio I think you're mixing up J & S. Convert./elim. SPS helps CET1. Converting JPS to common helps CET1 b/c JPS currently Tier [--] not CET1. CET1 = COMMON EQUITY Tier [--]. JPS are Tier [--] not CET1. CET1 is part of Tier [--] but not the other way around. SPS is a drag on CET1. All facts"
X Link 2025-07-08T09:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some Basel/ERCF & restructuring fun: - CET1 = COMMON EQUITY Tier [--] - JPS = AT1 (Additional Tier 1) - Tier [--] = CET1 Common + AT1 JPS - Convert./elim. SPS helps CET1 as SPS is a drag on CET1 - Convert. JPS to common helps CET1 b/c JPS currently Tier [--] not CET1 - CET1 is key"
X Link 2025-07-08T09:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ScottCov123 @carney @midas79_ @pulte We're all discussing the R-word just saying that it's unlikely. R leads to more volatility than status quo or release and w/o legislation the same duopoly exists. R is clean but unnecessary and unlikely at this time. Even @carney would reluctantly agree"
X Link 2025-07-08T09:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
".@carney: Correct on GSE litigation. Likely correct on SPS conversion to $FNMA & $FMCC common vs. write-down. Close connection to Bessent. Also calling for receivership but I suspect thats a principled not a practical suggestion as it doesnt make a lot of sense because @JohnCarey17 @midas79_ @ScottCov123 @HoldenWalker99 @pulte I was president of the federalist society at Penn and Im a not-very-active member now. Im deeply versed in textualist interpretation although I know consider my own approach to be something closer to common sense constitutionalism. This is one of the reasons Ive been"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the same duopoly. Of all options R has the MOST volatile impact to mortgage rates & MBS-UST spreads which Bessent calls out as key objectives w/ GSE reform. Status quo is the most likely bear case for shareholders not R"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Status quo works fine for all excl. shareholders of $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. Under the existing PSPA once ERCF buffers hit Treasury gets 100% of GSE profit forever early/mid 2030s. Risk-reward to release GSEs is a toss up but it seems that Trump [---] WANTS to do it Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the same duopoly. Of all options R has the MOST volatile impact to mortgage rates & MBS-UST spreads which Bessent calls out as key objectives w/ GSE reform. Status quo is the most likely bear case for shareholders not R. Receivership (R) without legislation ends up with the"
X Link 2025-07-08T13:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Easier way for Treasury to crack this nut (similar to AIG) & skipping theoretical valuations: take $340B SPS LP/$8 (i.e. 20/30-day MA)=43B shares. They'll want to bring JPS into common with SPS but that's a 25% haircut. 88% or 95% UST 9% or 0% JPS & 4% or 5% existing common. If Treasury needs to claim their $340B loosely speaking convert $285B for 95% of $FNMA $FMCC e.g. $300B valuation $8/share & keep $55B as SPS @ 10% that can be called in 2-3 years w/ retained earnings or sooner w/ new capital raise. Dividends resume thereafter. Issues If Treasury needs to claim their $340B loosely"
X Link 2025-07-08T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reasonable but a little more patient than I am. Given comments to date if we don't hear from Bessent by the end of the year concern is warranted. I'm looking at Q4 [----] like Q4 2020"
X Link 2025-07-08T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Pulte Bessent & Trump [---] still defending in court. That's all I need to know to take Not-POTUS Trump's letter & toss it w/ regard to steal socialism tragedy etc. Different story once you're POTUS. Intent to release remains very strong but don't expect "fairness" to prevail. Fannie/Freddie Consolidated Class Action The parties delivered their proposed briefing schedule to the D.C. Circuit yesterday saying they plan to complete briefing by Feb. [--] [----]. A copy of the joint proposal https://t.co/65dDiPAO8d $FNMA #FANNIEGATE https://t.co/oSlAnf90yJ Fannie/Freddie Consolidated Class Action The"
X Link 2025-07-08T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbrandimore @DoNotLose Yes. The financial liability for Treasury FHFA and GSEs isn't material (esp. given how much $ the government will get to offset it) and a proper restructuring may result in the resolution of all open litigation. Also AIG restructured and recapitalized with litigation overhang"
X Link 2025-07-08T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@agkburner Ackman argues that the government will prioritize "fairness" in the capital restructuring (LOL) when there's no evidence of that plus ignores the following statements made by people more "in the know" than he https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207338339934632 🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)"
X Link 2025-07-08T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@seolovely23 @lesgrossman25 Hello bot lady. Ackman argues that the government will prioritize "fairness" in the capital restructuring (LOL) when there's no evidence of that plus ignores the following statements made by people more "in the know" than he https://x.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1940207338339934632 🚨IMPORTANT REFRESHER🚨: Thread of too-big-to-ignore predictions of 90%+ common equity ownership for Treasury in the restructuring of their stake in Fannie & Freddie currently at 100% of the value of the combined companies. Please read & listen. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (1/5)"
X Link 2025-07-08T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GSE_NewsToday $37T in debt and counting. every bit helps"
X Link 2025-07-09T15:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GSE_NewsToday Junior preferred shares par value is neatly defined by contract and I'll pay my fair share of capital gains tax. Treasury not only needs and/or wants $FNMA and $FMCC equity value but they have legal claims to over 100% of it. Yikes"
X Link 2025-07-09T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GSE_NewsToday @pulte Easy: equity vs. debt. Next"
X Link 2025-07-09T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fannie and Freddie spent an astonishing $2B on the CSS: Who knows what the value to $FNMA and $FMCC could be once spun off. Treasury ultimately may get 90%+ of the value anyways. https://www.fhfaoig.gov/Content/Files/OIG-2019-005%20Special%20Report%20on%20the%20Common%20Securitization%20Platform_Redacted.pdf One of Fannie & Freddies most undervalued assets is a little known company CSS. It being little known changes TODAY Weve created U.S. Fin Tech to hold CSS and sell our MBS Fin Tech Services to others - thanks to President Trump this will unlock so much value for America"
X Link 2025-07-09T17:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@timpagliara @compound248 @T_Castelluccio Please see the following references from the Bank for International Settlements and U.S. Congress showing that Tier [--] = CET1 common equity/retained earnings + AT1 non-cum. JPS/other. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47447 https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/chapter/CAP/10.htminforce=20191215&published=20200605 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47447 https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/chapter/CAP/10.htminforce=20191215&published=20200605"
X Link 2025-07-10T11:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@eoyvo43515267 Not true at all. Release and recapitalization doesn't equal price appreciation for $FNMA or $FMCC (which could forever be loser from today's prices). Possibly not for years with JPS like $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT etc. (which may be below par for years under some scenarios)"
X Link 2025-07-10T11:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""The Pentagon is buying. preferred shares convertible into. common stock in addition to a warrant that allows the U.S. to buy additional common stock." Sneak peek at how Treasury can get creative to maximize SPS LP into $FNMA & $FMCC common equity. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/10/pentagon-to-become-largest-shareholder-in-rare-earth-magnet-maker-mp-materials.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/10/pentagon-to-become-largest-shareholder-in-rare-earth-magnet-maker-mp-materials.html"
X Link 2025-07-10T13:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ben_franklin_x @pulte @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump @BillAckman Government golden share in Nippon Steel. Pentagon major shareholder in MP Materials. Watch out"
X Link 2025-07-10T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Maybe Treasury's defaults to a K.I.S.S. approach and a lot of shareholders will think something like this is overkill but the C & AIG restructurings dealt with a lot of different types of equity and debt so can't assume anything is off the table"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@lesgrossman25 If SPS LP is $340B they take 95% of common equity (e.g. $285B) then $55B $340B - $285B is left as convertible JPS that can be sold or converted once Treasury sells down 95%. It's just if they need (or want) to show $340B on paper"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"It's becoming clear that Trump [---] will end the conservatorships of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. I was at 75% chance now 90%. How that impacts $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ $FNMAT etc. That's where you need to do the work. Release does not necessarily equal shareholder profit"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DoNotLose I keep struggling to find ways to support a contrarian view on release. All I have at this point is Bessent coming back to Trump later this year and saying "this is FUBAR just punt to the next guy." Too many things underway. And way more advanced and prepared vs. Trump 1.0"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@midas79_ @mark_7091 Also the hard-to-quantify progression of some investors to plow into $FNMA then $FMCC then $FNMAS / $FMCKJ then to other JPS"
X Link 2025-07-10T19:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JohnDee78791547 Just in time"
X Link 2025-07-10T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@usnavycmdr Billionaire math I guess because I dont get it: Treasury has $350B stake in the GSEs. If cancelled the value of their warrants could increase $280B. 🤪"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Pultes antics got him sent to the kids table while Wrase Calabria and McKernan work on the GSE plan behind the scenes. Not surprised (if true). $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ FHFAs Pulte Falls Out of Trumps In-Crowd #Securitization https://t.co/OSqotbD38E FHFAs Pulte Falls Out of Trumps In-Crowd #Securitization https://t.co/OSqotbD38E"
X Link 2025-07-11T23:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Cleanest approach even if some JPS are cheap to keep out there. Complexity of converting all to common is how to structure the haircut (or not) for both SPS and JPS and how well JPS contracts stand up to it (or not). 90/10 split ($340B SPS LP / $33B JPS par value) seems fair to me"
X Link 2025-07-12T13:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FHFA @pulte SPS/JPS 91%/9% split ($340B SPS LP/$33B JPS par value) with $FNMA $FMCC common at 1% seems to be what @MarkCalabrias is implying. Equal haircut for SPS/JPS. Common unfortunately barely get crumbs. Worth a listen especially last [--] minutes. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trinity-smf-podcast/id1534318333i=1000681839091 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trinity-smf-podcast/id1534318333i=1000681839091"
X Link 2025-07-12T13:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ etc. connections. In an interview earlier this year before he joined OMB @MarkCalabria said that a clue for Trump 2.0's GSE reform focus will be if Treasurys Head of Domestic Finance has mortgage finance experience in order to advance reform while Bessent focuses on more important issues (i.e. tax trade). (1/6)"
X Link 2025-07-14T13:31Z [---] followers, 14.8K engagements
"With the "band is getting back together" what does this mean - Plans are advancing w/o @SecScottBessent heavy involvement (unlike in Trump [---] where Mnuchin was a bottleneck requiring detailed review of everything GSE related). He will review approve and take to Trump for public release IMO by the end of the year. - Pulte gets to take a back seat with detailed planning which frankly isn't anywhere in his wheelhouse (and that's okay) and focus on things like his crusade against Powell crypto/FICO/etc. and caramel popcorn at Freddie Mac. Stop harassing him about uplist and the ERCF And for"
X Link 2025-07-14T13:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@3pandd @ArtWilliamsIII @koryzuck @pulte @SecScottBessent Common shares are likely a bad idea. Junior preferred may be a good idea. (And l thanks; I try.)"
X Link 2025-07-15T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@gcmarbella Your list is "most influential figures for the recap and release" and Ackman is certainly not"
X Link 2025-07-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A great way to help real socialism thrive in the U.S. is to wind down Fannie and Freddie. TBTF banks and PE firms would dominate the housing finance system and crush affordability for many. Then AOC Mamdani et al would be more popular than ever. Or just make the best out of the existing system by recapitalizing and reducing taxpayer risk"
X Link 2025-07-15T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ArtWilliamsIII @gcmarbella Ackman has no influence on Fannie and Freddie reform. But while you may never see late May [----] highs there's still time to sell before $FNMA and $FMCC shares are available at Dollar General again"
X Link 2025-07-15T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@2025Updated @SecScottBessent Ackman only endorsed Trump in July [----]. Hardly a steadfast supporter. And it's transparent that he was jumping to the winning team. He actively supported Dean Phillips a Democratic candidate. Ackman was anti-Biden not pro-Trump"
X Link 2025-07-15T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@2025Updated @MarkCalabria I would love that. But if they eliminate the buffers it will be to improve the value of Treasury's $FNMA and $FMCC (i.e. 90%+) which is why people may want to considering selling all common sooner than later"
X Link 2025-07-15T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NathanielJonesX You may be right. Treasury may not need 79.9% of $FNMA and $FMCC in warrants when they have a route to 100% with senior preferred/liquidation preference"
X Link 2025-07-15T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Conversion must consider dividend rates especially as they'll WANT to convert the premium 8%+ series (1/2 of JPS) and may not care if the sub-5% ones are left outstanding (1/2 of JPS). Also conversion increases CET1 vs. Tier [--] which is a good reason to do it but doesn't really "raise capital.""
X Link 2025-07-15T19:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NathanielJonesX @RSwearingen1980 Not a loan. An equity investment"
X Link 2025-07-15T20:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RSwearingen1980 @NathanielJonesX Not short although if $FNMAS hits 70% of par I may sell some to short $FNMA and $FMCC for the first time. That could be fun"
X Link 2025-07-15T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@davejones406 @IndependentFHFA @par $FNMAS 12/31/2025 and $FMCKJ 12/31/2027 and then not again for another [--] years. Short-term if they miss the window for $FNMAS which seems likely it should trade at a premium"
X Link 2025-07-15T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Treasury's stake in $FNMA and $FMCC towards affordable housing Oh Congress. They failed to pass GSE reform legislation for almost [--] years and now that someone finds $250+ billion they rush to spend it. before they even have it https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/07/15/new-bill-dedicates-250b-in-funds-from-fannie-freddie-sale-for-affordable-housing/ https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/07/15/new-bill-dedicates-250b-in-funds-from-fannie-freddie-sale-for-affordable-housing/"
X Link 2025-07-16T00:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@lwalsh1313 @ArtWilliamsIII @POTUS @VP @SecretaryTurner @SecScottBessent @pulte Still a nice score and it will be hard to prove damages when you've made that much money What do you have for market cap for each company out of curiosity"
X Link 2025-07-16T00:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MIA95629998 @The_Jackal1997 @NathanielJonesX They could but won't. I'm talking about $340B LP"
X Link 2025-07-16T01:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Roger theres a whole group of Pulte-hating miscreants who are trying to extract contractual and legal taxpayer profits for the benefit of common shareholders of Fannie and Freddie. They sometimes call themselves The Merry Men of GSE Common. Let me know if youd like more information"
X Link 2025-07-16T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"GSE litigation risk is most likely immaterial & a non-factor. Many learned the hard way that the GSE investment thesis relies on administrative action not judicial relief. $FNMA & $FMCC shareholders banking on judicial relief shall/may be sorely disappointed (again). (1/6)"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The U.S. government has an endless supply of litigators; they don't care. For the GSEs release/recapitalization won't be stalled by lawsuits. AIG restructuring happened w/o issue w/ Starr overhang (and by the way litigants "won" w/ damages of ZERO dollars. $0.00). (2/6)"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"People like @carney nailed this all along. By the end of Trump [---] I entirely discounted judicial relief which is why I sold out pre-SCOTUS. Nice post-SCOTUS tweet by the way but enough about me. 😎 (5/6) https://x.com/calabrias_cat/status/1408513410325651460 Btw mad props to @holden who was dead right on all this. May he rip https://x.com/calabrias_cat/status/1408513410325651460 Btw mad props to @holden who was dead right on all this. May he rip"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"History is likely to repeat itself. Unfortunate but true. Millions of dollars & thousands of hours for at best a pyrrhic victory. GSE litigation risk is immaterial & a non-factor. You would be wise to drop it from your investment thesis. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ (6/6)"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ SCOOP: @realDonaldTrump flip flopping on the firing of Jerome Powell as @federalreserve chair reflects divisions in the administration over his authority my sources say. Some @WhiteHouse lawyers say the law is on his side but @USTreasury says its not when you look at the legal SCOOP: @realDonaldTrump flip flopping on the firing of Jerome Powell as @federalreserve chair reflects divisions in the administration over his authority my sources say. Some @WhiteHouse lawyers say the law is on"
X Link 2025-07-16T17:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump went from firing Powell imminently to not likely on the advise of Treasury. Treasury has a lot of influence and as Trump would say "the best lawyers tremendous tough smart winners." Make me think about Treasury's view RE: writing off SPS. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ Treasurys legal team continues to have a lot of influence in Trump administrations $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link 2025-07-16T19:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Fanniegate101 @agkburner Andre is a hopium addict"
X Link 2025-07-16T19:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
".@carney who has been right on almost all GSE legal issues so far and is closely linked with Bessent also agrees with Treasury by the way"
X Link 2025-07-16T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbrandimore Treasury needed something in return for allowing the GSEs to build capital"
X Link 2025-07-16T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
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