# ![@HettyGreen2020 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897.png) @HettyGreen2020 StartMakingSense Capital

StartMakingSense Capital posts on X about $hci, $xzo, $nbn, balance sheet the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +21%
- [--] Month [------] +46%
- [--] Months [------] +167%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Months [---] +44%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +4.10%
- [--] Month [---] +18%
- [--] Months [---] +92%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  50% [stocks](/list/stocks)  48% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  5% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  3% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  #2365 [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  2% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2% [musicians](/list/musicians)  1% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[$hci](/topic/$hci) 16%, [$xzo](/topic/$xzo) #3, [$nbn](/topic/$nbn) 10%, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) #1967, [$betr](/topic/$betr) #7, [$figr](/topic/$figr) 9%, [ai](/topic/ai) 9%, [$gwre](/topic/$gwre) 7%, [$nvr](/topic/$nvr) #9, [$brk](/topic/$brk) #4

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@cedarstresearch](/creator/undefined) [@triberuffner](/creator/undefined) [@mabiverse123](/creator/undefined) [@danielsethlewis](/creator/undefined) [@onesail](/creator/undefined) [@boujeebanker](/creator/undefined) [@adammgrossman](/creator/undefined) [@danielsloeb1](/creator/undefined) [@jessecohn4](/creator/undefined) [@winnermon1](/creator/undefined) [@mcagney](/creator/undefined) [@a32m2a32m2](/creator/undefined) [@vishalbetter](/creator/undefined) [@one_sail](/creator/undefined) [@dollarsanddata](/creator/undefined) [@kingkito33](/creator/undefined) [@patientinv618ng](/creator/undefined) [@chamath](/creator/undefined) [@standuquesne](/creator/undefined) [@johnarnold](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)](/topic/$xzo) [Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR)](/topic/$betr) [Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR)](/topic/$figr) [GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC. (GWRE)](/topic/$gwre) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)](/topic/$sdhc) [D R Horton Inc (DHI)](/topic/$dhi) [Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)](/topic/$rkt) [Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE)](/topic/$slde) [PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Common Stock (PFSI)](/topic/$pfsi) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BWIN)](/topic/$bwin) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [HUBSPOT, INC. (HUBS)](/topic/$hubs) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GSHD)](/topic/$gshd) [Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)](/topic/$np) [EverRise (EVER)](/topic/$ever) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [BBB Foods Inc. (TBBB)](/topic/$tbbb)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency growing in new markets. Legit could grow into a $NVR margin profile Hope they are repurchasing shares rn Illiquid so institutions have trouble with itexcept for unique shops like Conifer $SDHC Smith Douglas Homes is an abnormally efficient conservatively leveraged land light home builder in the southeast US. Their ROE (50%) and gross margins (28%) both exceed $NVR and $DHI. Inventory turnover is also on par with $NVR at 3.4x Insider ownership is 83% 👀 $SDHC Smith Douglas Homes is an abnormally efficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1966553442475725289)  2025-09-12T17:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$HCI $XZO Positioned as an underwriting-first platform unlike the policy admin/billing/claims SaaS firms like $GWRE (which Exzeo also does). HCI LRs have been exceptional"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971219298019668073)  2025-09-25T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@danielsethlewis @CedarStResearch Right buybacks would be fine with a much bigger float. Forget divys. Maybe they are still looking at a spin post-lockup. Section [---] tax free Cleans up HCI balance sheet. Does anything else solve the issue Don't want HCI to threaten us with big M&A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008214736387616799)  2026-01-05T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$NBN ATH on big volume. Ill tell my grandkids about: 1) Warren Buffett $BRK 2) Rick Wayne $NBN https://t.co/DyhkeoppCS Ill tell my grandkids about: 1) Warren Buffett $BRK 2) Rick Wayne $NBN https://t.co/DyhkeoppCS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2011836352904466760)  2026-01-15T16:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"From $DHI call: sticks & bricks cost flat lot costs up modestly use of incentives amid 6+% rates continues. Builders have adapted with smaller sf flat pricing It's about consumer confidence. Most of these new homes are $330k-400k. Millionaires not req'd $SDHC $NVR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2014359534878212285)  2026-01-22T15:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PFSI margins hammered amid "hyper competitive" market in Q4. Prepayments higher than expected resulting in MSR runoff. Pricing power is everything. Market repricing that lower rates (if we get them) may not = much higher profit. Impacting entire landscape $RKT $UWMC $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017274670832144552)  2026-01-30T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@one_sail Probably right. Question is are some companies taking share or more profitable/loan with better tech ( $FIGR $BETR others). If MSR-heavy and weak in AI/digital that's a huge problem. Longer term cost of capital advantages will make the biggest difference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017283444506529957)  2026-01-30T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@one_sail $BETR says it can scale fast but jury is out. Unprofitable with weak balance sheet. $FIGR would say so too. Is profitable. Problem for $RKT and $UWMC is that if margins decrease volume matters less. Hence share prices are down hard today. Maybe why Ishbia sells stock every day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017289715599245662)  2026-01-30T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@dollarsanddata Yall sure we dont have enough affordable homes - incl new homes - in places ppl want to live [----] from $225k-$475k in Triangle The issue is family formation and consumer confidence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017704824775602269)  2026-01-31T21:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NBN another ATH. Good hedge vs. $FIGR in the CLARITY law war which Figure has been swept up in tho NBN won't be impacted either way. FIGR also has imminent secondary. It'll be fine no complaining allowed. NBN pretty fully valued at $125 but it's not a trade $NBN ATH on big volume. https://t.co/wztuGxwDVX $NBN ATH on big volume. https://t.co/wztuGxwDVX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2019066719969411241)  2026-02-04T15:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The Anthropic swoon is vindicating to those who never understood buying software companies for 10x+ ARR. Like literally nothing would cause customers to leave. It took [--] years but thats investing sometimes. $CRM $ADBE $HUBS $CSU $NOW Certain names look more interesting now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020129188502495245)  2026-02-07T13:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Guarantee Bill Belichick will insult Drake Maye after this game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020684983979925581)  2026-02-09T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mabiverse123 Yep but rate matters for partnership customer conversion. I say it partly bc the co often gets excited on X about Fed Funds cuts which it knows has nothing to do with mortgage rates. Theres just no obvious macro bailout to make things easier for them. Pretty priced at [--] though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020874616160272723)  2026-02-09T14:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TribeRuffner $FIGR very different company more products strong balance sheet profitable. But you must believe in DeFi. HELOC concentration for now. 250+ partners. $730 cost per loan vs $11230 for industry in [----] (per S-1). Appears (maybe much) better than $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020891145224470764)  2026-02-09T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TribeRuffner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020891788861481434)  2026-02-09T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TribeRuffner So even ex-sales labor (for pships) $BETR costs double $FIGR assuming this holds for Heloc. So understandable the market is skeptical on Tinman. Also why does $BETR exclude brand in contribution margin If not much when smoothed why not include Cute or too cute you decide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020898105802084794)  2026-02-09T16:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mabiverse123 @KingKiTo33 @TribeRuffner Yeah they just process. And partners pay FIGR a fee to use their system. 250+ partners is light years ahead of Better on Heloc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020963687662755873)  2026-02-09T20:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PatientInv618ng "Largely" fee-based didn't save the day when they had losses and had to throttle back some segments. So it trades like a mediocre consumer lender with volatile earnings despite a management team that glosses over the biggest value driver - credit quality. $PGY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020978781218025758)  2026-02-09T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mcagney Most execs hate vol. Almost zero execs like it so they can buyback shares for cheap. So increasing vol or having any casino vibe might limit adoption in the first place unless the buyside threatens execs (and execs cave). Not yet clear they will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022327310406619256)  2026-02-13T15:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So $BETR tech needs to be That much better than competition And it needs to max out HELOC where its very sensible for people to refinance their debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020863274418335905)  2026-02-09T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GS Solomon with oddly supportive words for Ruemmler until the very end. Maybe smart. Doesnt want to get dragged into a defamation case. https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-kathy-ruemmler-and-goldman-sachs-finally-reached-their-breaking-point-4c33d77est=XEqn4J&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-kathy-ruemmler-and-goldman-sachs-finally-reached-their-breaking-point-4c33d77est=XEqn4J&reflink=article_copyURL_share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022803056669151278)  2026-02-14T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch My 2c Id wait to buy $XZO until its trading like a near-zero growth annuity. Around $15 imo. Its been there once already. Luckily the float/technical piece means it can easily return there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011439869596418375)  2026-01-14T14:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DHI beat on EPS and revenue. 64% of closings were to first time homebuyers. Great operator Homebuilding has been hated for years w/ margins hit by incentives. Will do well if labor market stabilizes I've liked firms with low leverage fast cycle times $NVR $SDHC $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency growing in new markets. Legit could grow into a $NVR margin profile Hope they are repurchasing shares rn Illiquid so institutions have trouble with itexcept for unique shops like Conifer $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2014356324218269764)  2026-01-22T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Unless $HCI incurs massive losses from recent winter storms (recall concentration is FL) price looks interesting MC at $155/sh = $460m after $1.55bn $XZO stake (worth $120/sh) Non-Exzeo insurance ops earned $200m pre-tax in first [--] mos of [----] so paying 2.5x PE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2016546679567110596)  2026-01-28T16:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Constructive action in $HCI especially with $XZO weakness. The bottom might be in unless you think the insurance Co should trade for 1-1.5x recent earnings. I would love to see that. Unless $HCI incurs massive losses from recent winter storms (recall concentration is FL) price looks interesting MC at $155/sh = $460m after $1.55bn $XZO stake (worth $120/sh) Non-Exzeo insurance ops earned $200m pre-tax in first [--] mos of [----] so paying 2.5x PE Unless $HCI incurs massive losses from recent winter storms (recall concentration is FL) price looks interesting MC at $155/sh = $460m after $1.55bn $XZO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2019429495481200732)  2026-02-05T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch If $XZO is cheap they should repurchase shares - so much cash. Damn the float lay in the bed you made. Then when they sign some contracts and/or when price is fair they should do a secondary. $HCI can use the proceeds for divy or buyback. .Or XZO/HCI can hold itself hostage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2019435141903626360)  2026-02-05T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You can fall in love with an investment. But only after management has shown strict discipline (with your money) over time most often evidenced by ROE and ROIC. $BRK $COST $NVR $NBN $TBBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020536176751329478)  2026-02-08T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PGY now $15 from $30 at post below AI doesnt make bad credits good $PGY down bad. FinX again realizing the hazards of subprime consumer lending Major imperative this year is discerning btw companies using AI to do previously untouchable stuff (no matter how "conservative" mgmt claims to be). versus Co's that mainly use AI for efficiency $PGY down bad. FinX again realizing the hazards of subprime consumer lending Major imperative this year is discerning btw companies using AI to do previously untouchable stuff (no matter how "conservative" mgmt claims to be). versus Co's that mainly use AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020837242055582184)  2026-02-09T12:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"THE macro issue that hits $BETR hard. Youre relying on the govt buying MBS that more than offsets the Fed unwinding its balance sheet amid less demand globally for US Tbonds. Tough to model We are not returning to 5% mortgages This Bloomberg headline raises the question of whether US Treasury bonds will experience a notable erosion of its investor base including non-commercial buyers. It comes amid a growing debate over the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy. As the ultimate non-commercial buyer https://t.co/7YG5wIDX6C This Bloomberg headline raises the question of whether US Treasury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2020862209300046077)  2026-02-09T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Consider the possibility that California politicians WANT to hurt the middle class. That equity through bankruptcy with a corrupt state Capitol is preferred over a thriving economy. @chamath California is toast. Self-immolation. California is toast. Self-immolation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021224980818661452)  2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A big reason young people dont buy homes anymore. They dont need one. https://t.co/TjGsswbpsq https://t.co/TjGsswbpsq"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021239050238144709)  2026-02-10T15:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$86 when posted below $48 now. Lots of insider selling since. AI threatens personal lines-focused brokers. $GSHD $GSHD A major problem with selling personal lines with agents is that once a unicorn realizes hes pretty good.he quits .to make way more money somewhere else. (Yeah some franchise exceptions) Losing 15-20% of book annually is brutal Better to be a CL broker or in SAAS $GSHD A major problem with selling personal lines with agents is that once a unicorn realizes hes pretty good.he quits .to make way more money somewhere else. (Yeah some franchise exceptions) Losing 15-20% of book"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021313350588649898)  2026-02-10T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Investors will demand incumbent software companies massively cut stock compensation. So they will have to fire a lot of people. $CRM $HUBS $NOW $TEAM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021630658448437385)  2026-02-11T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Neutralizing the most explosive political issue related to AI today. Ofc users will ultimately pay. We're committing to cover electricity price increases from our data centers. To ensure ratepayers arent picking up the tab we'll pay 100% of grid upgrade costs work to bring new power online and invest in systems to reduce grid strain. Read more: https://t.co/avOFlvRNpa We're committing to cover electricity price increases from our data centers. To ensure ratepayers arent picking up the tab we'll pay 100% of grid upgrade costs work to bring new power online and invest in systems to reduce grid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021695550282694664)  2026-02-11T21:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch $NP Hammered again today On MGAs generally - If AI decreases headcount why don't carriers take back the pen Special distribution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2021972174308073489)  2026-02-12T15:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$XZO here we are $14.60 Fine but imo not crazy cheap @CedarStResearch My 2c Id wait to buy $XZO until its trading like a near-zero growth annuity. Around $15 imo. Its been there once already. Luckily the float/technical piece means it can easily return there. @CedarStResearch My 2c Id wait to buy $XZO until its trading like a near-zero growth annuity. Around $15 imo. Its been there once already. Luckily the float/technical piece means it can easily return there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021982173021290706)  2026-02-12T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Gotta love that Warren Buffett might get another chance to deploy capital. $BRK Almost time to get a little greedy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022001878192861552)  2026-02-12T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"One benefit of AI is a lot less leadership coaches will be needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022095345774407862)  2026-02-12T23:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Is the trucking software that tanked beauty $EXPD (which has been spending a ton on tech) also so bad for low cost operator $ODFL one of the best in LTL Id say overblown. Incumbency matters when everything good enough ends up open source"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022122399697973499)  2026-02-13T01:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Cannot believe it took David Solomon so long to toss her out. Gross misjudgment to stand by her. So replaceable. Makes you wonder what leverage she had. $GS Top Goldman Sachs lawyer Kathy Ruemmler resigns over Epstein links https://t.co/i2EmoXiaaB https://t.co/A3KQqZNhhP Top Goldman Sachs lawyer Kathy Ruemmler resigns over Epstein links https://t.co/i2EmoXiaaB https://t.co/A3KQqZNhhP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022159506046955694)  2026-02-13T04:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Something about cost advantage essential product strong balance sheet disciplined mgmt pricing power and scale benefits. Just find all those. Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022308775130988937)  2026-02-13T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdamMGrossman Rebalancing is a big mistake if you maintain adequate liquidity and your portfolio is a couple index ETFs. It interrupts compounding. Its too often an excuse for the advisor to justify his point. Its often just churn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022313123307262237)  2026-02-13T14:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdamMGrossman Definitely not. But You cant pretend you were omniscient then just as no one is now. Deep dips happen. And it comes back. But you dont know timing. What liquidity is for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022322921037812045)  2026-02-13T14:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The future is here finally Maximum transparency. The general public can now help us detect the fraud. Maximum transparency. The general public can now help us detect the fraud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022376202749526121)  2026-02-13T18:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"True. Attended a non-religious service at a funeral home - was absolutely awful "There is something irremediably sad at an atheist's funeral." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb "There is something irremediably sad at an atheist's funeral." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022501882720034898)  2026-02-14T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Absolutely incredible what Anthony Kim just did. Still a beast Anthony Kim retired for over a decade after an achilles injury he completely stopped playing golf. He battled substance abuse and mental health issues. This is one of the most amazing comebacks youll ever see in sports. https://t.co/7jXdDpsOWa Anthony Kim retired for over a decade after an achilles injury he completely stopped playing golf. He battled substance abuse and mental health issues. This is one of the most amazing comebacks youll ever see in sports. https://t.co/7jXdDpsOWa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2022966111265071426)  2026-02-15T09:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@boujee_banker View as credit enhancement first 4% loss is funded next 10% via insurance. If they cant find a buyer I will. He said 2% on balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2016195299883049357)  2026-01-27T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Conveniently no comment from anyone on the terrible organic print Using trailing PE here is not smart $SLDE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1961436232405205316)  2025-08-29T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@standuquesne Pathward $CASH is putting back to $OPRT all OPRT loans it has retained by Feb [----] Makes you think https://www.bamsec.com/filing/153871625000098cik=1538716 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/153871625000098cik=1538716"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978533691119767940)  2025-10-15T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wow. Constellation software has been absolutely pounded. [--] months ago value investing X called it cheap. No haven from AI for vertical software. Time to review. $CNSWF $CSU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2012372279347319170)  2026-01-17T03:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Lol come on the answer is no Whats tragic is $FIGR is surely what Vishal wanted to build. And he has already tweeted about tokenization $FIGR is in a different universe. $BETR cant afford to become FIGR NTM multiples can work when you grow super fast with such high margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2013444801367085343)  2026-01-20T02:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mabiverse123 @CedarStResearch The issue is no one knows how much ATM money they truly need. Its for $75m but it could be fare more depending on losses. After they flubbed it by not doing the $75m in [--] wks during the meme frenzy they were too stubborn or unable to find another expeditious way. Be careful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2015944613119365274)  2026-01-27T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@boujee_banker Excellent quarter crushed all the controllables yet again. EPS wouldve been $3.00 without the govt shutdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2016192500151566745)  2026-01-27T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@johnarnold Reasonable but wrong. Growth is plainly Not the goal in blue states. Blue states expect a federal bailout and more subsidies when Dems return to power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017037670979879070)  2026-01-30T00:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PRIV isnt what it claims to be. Its stated goal is to only allocate 10-35% to private credit. So really the vast majority is much more liquid credit investments to avoid any illiquidity crisis that would severely damage the private credit theme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1919400110527496372)  2025-05-05T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NBN Thread Quarter was strong. Commentary bullish. Love how Rick buries important details. Weak originations was worst piece (though seasonality cited) mitigated by strong purchases. Rick sounded bullish on both loan pipelines. Income may decline next quarter due to lower SBA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983556624049709263)  2025-10-29T15:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@boujee_banker $NBN Yes very solid. Rick was bullish. Both pipelines strong. SBA expected to come back post-shutdown. Progress on insured loan program already. Reducing NYC exposure. See full thread on my page"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983557414130532630)  2025-10-29T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Must add earnouts and deferred pmt to PP. They said expect to pay them. Multiple is dilutive unless they get growth & huge synergies incl $45m of expense syn of $60m projected. Must draw $400m from revolver now. And puts $250m earnouts on balance sheet. 5x lev w/ EOs $BWIN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1996230723355775363)  2025-12-03T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch They must draw. 90m cash on BS last qtr. Need to keep at least 50-60m cash. They said on call they expect to pay the EOs and fair value wont change much. Paid at [--] yr and [--] yr anny (soon). PP obv structured to avoid blowing out bank and rating agency leverage at close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1996233982506111009)  2025-12-03T15:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It's clear $NBN can move $10/sh when even a modest position must be liquidated. Accomplished & disciplined management aside there's not much threat to liability costs from yielding stablecoins because NBN already uses about the most expensive deposits. Built so different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009283475778494546)  2026-01-08T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"And if you've never heard of stablecoins with yields high interest savings accounts look at $FIGR Figure's $YLDS. By next year many will want YLDS 3.5% or Figure's 8.8% HELOC product called Democratized Prime - novel in that it's available to individuals. $NBN $KRE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009286021796548883)  2026-01-08T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@danielsethlewis @CedarStResearch I'd never touch something that can't withstand a little more competition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009332773698588958)  2026-01-08T18:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@danielsethlewis @CedarStResearch On data $EVER is using AI & ML to better monetize its data. EVER has been around for a while so it has something to work with. Presumably that data is useful to someone else but I don't know enough to underwrite a meaningful number"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009337318700875945)  2026-01-08T18:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@boujee_banker Aside from being a great company with a [---] IQ CEO who is also MODEST (a positive black swan) the technicals are wonderful because the float almost guarantees volatility. Vs. how often can you buy $BRK for 1.3x book $NBN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009620909586612426)  2026-01-09T13:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Impressive $FIGR HELOC numbers for Q4. Means they are winning even more partners (150+ now) and taking share. Can't wait to see big firms adopt $YLDS an SEC-registered security. So many uses. No dogsh*t payment token. Just read about Democratized Prime. Unbelievable potential Figures lending business is seasonal. We tend to do less loans in Q4 than Q3 in particular in the December. For example in [----] our ecosystem originated about $1.4B in loans in Q3 and $1.2B in Q4. Thats why the numbers in this release matter. In [----] we did $2.46B in Q3 and Figures lending business is seasonal. We tend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2011262392643305947)  2026-01-14T02:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This future is depressing the terminal values of $PGR and $ROOT Good for $UBER $GOOG $LMND Insurance is half price when Tesla self-driving is activated because it increases safety so much Insurance is half price when Tesla self-driving is activated because it increases safety so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2014073689990479988)  2026-01-21T20:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DHI Smaller new homes everywhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2014361393143620028)  2026-01-22T15:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ex post it seems win at any cost Sokol was destined for tragedy But annual meetings would have been much more interesting than with the seemingly boring (Canadian) Greg Abel $BRK https://www.wsj.com/business/david-sokol-berkshire-hathaway-a2f92bf2st=Zra3A4 https://www.wsj.com/business/david-sokol-berkshire-hathaway-a2f92bf2st=Zra3A4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2015753044969804002)  2026-01-26T11:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch $BWIN had to publish CAC financials. [----] not LTM but has anyone seen an uglier P&L for a scaled broker. Large Ebitda adjustments applied"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2016973530034733056)  2026-01-29T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Obvious now that the Rick Rieder surge in prediction markets was pure manipulation. Never had a chance per WSJ. It was Kevin Warsh or Hassett (really just Warsh) the whole time. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-warsh-won-fed-job-ff9d02bcst=7fJoGE&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-warsh-won-fed-job-ff9d02bcst=7fJoGE&reflink=article_copyURL_share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2017585404883476942)  2026-01-31T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @one_sail Likely. But tougher underwrite if more price competition endures vs any tech advantage and durability thereof Trading day after $PFSI dump very interesting. $RKT $BETR $UWMC Then theres uncontrollable macro Who can afford what scenarios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2018383671749644485)  2026-02-02T17:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch $BWIN hitting 2+ year low today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2018386390539522062)  2026-02-02T18:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@a32m2a32m2 @one_sail @vishal_better Looks like it may be. Interesting Credit Karma nixed a press release about the partnership. Big platform mortgage could be a big deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2018445215733039293)  2026-02-02T22:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TribeRuffner @a32m2a32m2 @one_sail @vishal_better Has potential P&L should improve but many moving pieces incl big uncontrollables. Tech differentiation and Tinman contibution margin somewhat opaque. Owns a UK bank that hurts overall might sell it yet been growing it. Lackluster balance sheet management. Sized accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2018527972567724231)  2026-02-03T03:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch No brainer if Neptune $NP comes out at 10-15x But it wont"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1963663717914361991)  2025-09-04T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SDHC Couple days recently with massive volume 250k just this morning. If you own it you hope the company was the buyer Last quarter was constructive (pun sorry) with even lower cancel rates and strong orders given the enviro No leverage issues $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency growing in new markets. Legit could grow into a $NVR margin profile Hope they are repurchasing shares rn Illiquid so institutions have trouble with itexcept for unique shops like Conifer $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1970879572490289597)  2025-09-24T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Think most understand their OG problem now. $SLDE Serious claims about claims in there though. Political connections help.don't see this in the report. https://consumerfed.org/slide-insurance-is-getting-sweetheart-deals-from-florida-regulators/ https://consumerfed.org/slide-insurance-is-getting-sweetheart-deals-from-florida-regulators/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973047569954533532)  2025-09-30T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SLDE short report out Thx @CedarStResearch for the heads up https://manateeresearch.com/2025/09/30/slide-insurance-a-house-of-cards-in-hurricane-alley/ https://manateeresearch.com/2025/09/30/slide-insurance-a-house-of-cards-in-hurricane-alley/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973047874435895496)  2025-09-30T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"After many false starts the homebuilder and traditional mortgage bid is starting to feel real. $SDHC $LEN $DHI $PHM $UWMC $RKT $PFSI $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency growing in new markets. Legit could grow into a $NVR margin profile Hope they are repurchasing shares rn Illiquid so institutions have trouble with itexcept for unique shops like Conifer $SDHC Hardly anyone talks about them industry low cycle times/capital efficiency growing in new markets. Legit could grow into a $NVR margin profile Hope they are repurchasing shares rn Illiquid so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1993345320491925855)  2025-11-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@CedarStResearch $GS GSAM invested $200m in [----] at $2.2bn val. View $900m cash consideration separate from rest $500m of WTW equity is to retain advisors. Why Newfront gave acquired advisors lots of stock behind a huge preferred. That stock ended up being worth probably nothing for most $WTW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1998774899964276887)  2025-12-10T15:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ill tell my grandkids about: 1) Warren Buffett $BRK 2) Rick Wayne $NBN https://investor.northeastbank.com/news-releases/news-release-details/northeast-bank-announces-significant-loan-purchase-volume-1 $NBN Thread Quarter was strong. Commentary bullish. Love how Rick buries important details. Weak originations was worst piece (though seasonality cited) mitigated by strong purchases. Rick sounded bullish on both loan pipelines. Income may decline next quarter due to lower SBA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001728278126825622)  2025-12-18T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @danielsethlewis Yes but will more salesppl cost $5m/yr I don't think $XZO is taking [--] [--] meetings/day. Same thing for R&D and capex. Do they all of a sudden need tens of millions [--] scenario: XZO could buyback shares from $HCI if HCI had a UOP - like its own buybacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008218720028475765)  2026-01-05T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@danielsethlewis @CedarStResearch Agree - no concerns around Paresh's decision making. Like the spin & buyback route given the typical technical backdrop post-spin. Interested to see if they expand to balance sheet business. Hopefully capital light enough that it doesn't upset the multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008234211866460322)  2026-01-05T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$FIGR 's $YLDS Growth 8k: "$YLDS balance as of 11/13/25 is approaching $100m up from $4m in the second quarter." Today 1/8/26: $329m Makes you think. https://www.ylds.com/ And if you've never heard of stablecoins with yields high interest savings accounts look at $FIGR Figure's $YLDS. By next year many will want YLDS 3.5% or Figure's 8.8% HELOC product called Democratized Prime - novel in that it's available to individuals. $NBN $KRE https://www.ylds.com/ And if you've never heard of stablecoins with yields high interest savings accounts look at $FIGR Figure's $YLDS. By next year many will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009300544087540127)  2026-01-08T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Trapped cash and technical dynamics aside what multiple does this deserve today Customer concentration makes it look like an annuity but it looks priced for some growth. That said product seems less sticky than $GWRE. Would scaled carriers use them $XZO $HCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2011436738670100634)  2026-01-14T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Thanks. I could see a re rating if they get huge adoption plus new products. Tell me if Im wrong but I get the sense that if youre a big carrier and you sign on $XZO youre admitting that you dont know what youre doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2011441066667639165)  2026-01-14T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch You can argue that $SLDE is barely a business (uninvestable) until it can get its organic act together Theyve shown that anyone can get in the Citizens game and others have It was a great short term PE play. IPO will prob prove to be a mistake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1963664636064211028)  2025-09-04T18:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Wb $HCI 's Exzeo as AI play. IPO'ing it. Get not perfect comp to $GWRE But @ 80x run rate $75m AT income (growing fast) Exzeo is worth $6bn or $460/sh. HCI trades for $174 Ok i hear laughter. @ 20x just Exzeo is worth $115/share Rest of HCI also has plenty of earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965089570292417010)  2025-09-08T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Is there an insurance name with more margin of safety If Exzeo comes out at 10x repurchases will begin immediately $HCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965091610036937060)  2025-09-08T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HCI conservative napkin 10x non-Exzeo 2025E AT income $190m = $140/sh Current $173/sh for WholeCo implies: Exzeo ($GWRE comp to be IPO'd soon) 2025E AT income of $75m is valued at 6.0x @DanielSLoeb1 @jessecohn4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965434033598591448)  2025-09-09T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DanielSLoeb1 @jessecohn4 $HCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965436192016781754)  2025-09-09T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HCI $XZO S-1 dropped Basically only customer is current parent so will need to show growth. Variable model so sales cycle prob $GWRE but switching cost cheaper At 10x AT income of $80m the rest of HCI is trading for 7.5x (at $183/sh) Snips below $HCI conservative napkin 10x non-Exzeo 2025E AT income $190m = $140/sh Current $173/sh for WholeCo implies: Exzeo ($GWRE comp to be IPO'd soon) 2025E AT income of $75m is valued at 6.0x @DanielSLoeb1 @jessecohn4 $HCI conservative napkin 10x non-Exzeo 2025E AT income $190m = $140/sh Current $173/sh for WholeCo implies: Exzeo ($GWRE comp to be IPO'd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971217491981733972)  2025-09-25T14:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$HCI $XZO HCI now $196 from $173 when we flagged this. Exzeo's S-1/A dropped: @ $21/sh IPO midpoint with greenshoe Exzeo will have a market cap of $1.9bn (91.9m shares) and $280m of net cash () That's 24x net income of $80m $HCI $XZO S-1 dropped Basically only customer is current parent so will need to show growth. Variable model so sales cycle prob $GWRE but switching cost cheaper At 10x AT income of $80m the rest of HCI is trading for 7.5x (at $183/sh) Snips below $HCI $XZO S-1 dropped Basically only customer is current parent so will need to show growth. Variable model so sales cycle prob"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978846440261648716)  2025-10-16T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Heady multiple given only [--] big (loyal) customer (HCI) so let's see if it holds. Cheap vs. $GWRE. $HCI will own 75m shares or 82% = $1.6bn or $123 per HCI share. Implies rest of HCI is worth $950m or $73/sh. At only $160m AT income HCI ex- $XZO is now valued at 6x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978846441851265292)  2025-10-16T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Current $HCI price makes more sense if $XZO IPO performs poorly. In that case XZO will have plenty of cash on BS to repurchase shares at the right time plus lots of cash flow. That's unlikely to change even as it chases new customers. And XZO will never lose HCI's business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978849139791122915)  2025-10-16T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Great business $HCI. Thoughts on what $XZO will do with its mountain of cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2007912041076629564)  2026-01-04T20:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @danielsethlewis Obvious problem with that scenario is that $HCI probably won't sell shares that $XZO thinks are undervalued. LOL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008221959235211583)  2026-01-05T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In a soft insurance market watch $EVER. 20% rev growth higher eps growth pristine balance sheet Last qtr bought back 2.4% of SHOUT at avg $23.33/sh. Ended with $145m net Cash Mkt cap $905m. RR rev $720m. 14% AEBITDA margin @CedarStResearch had a good report on comp $MAX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009278656581939499)  2026-01-08T14:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GSHD A major problem with selling personal lines with agents is that once a unicorn realizes hes pretty good.he quits .to make way more money somewhere else. (Yeah some franchise exceptions) Losing 15-20% of book annually is brutal Better to be a CL broker or in SAAS $GSHD Yikes Interest expense now crushing the P&L as well as big lack of operating leverage in Q2 Also- Franchise producers down sequentially NPS plummeting Rate softening Low retention and softening rate tough to overcome $GSHD Yikes Interest expense now crushing the P&L as well as big lack of operating leverage in Q2 Also-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949870519639036040)  2025-07-28T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PGY down bad. FinX again realizing the hazards of subprime consumer lending Major imperative this year is discerning btw companies using AI to do previously untouchable stuff (no matter how "conservative" mgmt claims to be). versus Co's that mainly use AI for efficiency @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich when you consider the true Shout incl itm options rsu (p24 Q) FinX PGY influencers flat dont have the multiple right Better not have losses boys Large non-10b5 sales by cfo and prez in last [--] wks too @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973036039267835998)  2025-09-30T14:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

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