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# ![@Globalflows Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1636931259439128576.png) @Globalflows Capital Flows

The current market trend indicates that inflation risk is greater than recession risk, with stocks and risk assets rallying as bonds sell off. This is driven by a credit cycle surge and excess liquidity in the system, which is expected to continue pushing equities and risk assets higher. The market is positioning for a potential rate cut by the Fed, despite rising inflation data.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1636931259439128576/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1636931259439128576/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXXXX +88%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +51%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +129%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +251%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1636931259439128576/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1636931259439128576/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XXXX%
- X Month XXX -XXXX%
- X Months XXXXX +123%
- X Year XXXXX +120%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1636931259439128576/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1636931259439128576/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +2.40%
- X Month XXXXXX +5.70%
- X Months XXXXXX +53%
- X Year XXXXXX +160%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1636931259439128576/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1636931259439128576/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #3238 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #7318 [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms)  XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[macro](/topic/macro) #27, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #285, [livestream](/topic/livestream) #129, [if you](/topic/if-you) 3.36%, [japan](/topic/japan) #2182, [bearish](/topic/bearish) #172, [money](/topic/money) 2.68%, [carry](/topic/carry) #1294, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #54, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #2689

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@trader1sz](/creator/undefined) [@modern_bazar](/creator/undefined) [@10009nyny](/creator/undefined) [@william_r2rclub](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@reallesgoh](/creator/undefined) [@jaredkubin](/creator/undefined) [@bullmendi](/creator/undefined) [@chromehodls](/creator/undefined) [@tiannanzhang1](/creator/undefined) [@0x13darksoldier](/creator/undefined) [@dcmonalds](/creator/undefined) [@vandvalue](/creator/undefined) [@encryptbit](/creator/undefined) [@mmm8160](/creator/undefined) [@algoflows](/creator/undefined) [@remindme_ofthis](/creator/undefined) [@real_zelmo](/creator/undefined) [@gglasaugen](/creator/undefined) [@chillguybtc](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [FedoraCoin (TIPS)](/topic/$tips) [Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)](/topic/fartcoin)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"People fail in trading because they don't do this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996403605562400996)  2025-12-04T02:18Z 79.9K followers, 73.3K engagements


"The forms of capital are changing in the system While everyone is complaining about not having assets few are focusing on building informational and social capital There is never a point in time where its optimal to become successful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1997770595543736656)  2025-12-07T20:50Z 79.9K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Gm My macro thesis is laid out in the video below Im cooking up the next report explaining the risk reward levels of equities and interest rate If this tweet gets 1k likes Ill make it free for everyone 🤝"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998391284034310249)  2025-12-09T13:56Z 79.9K followers, 12.7K engagements


"If we were moving into a recession the curve would be much flatter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1991211655737536832)  2025-11-19T18:27Z 79.8K followers, 15.3K engagements


"BITCOIN BOTTOM SIGNALS One of the major things I laid out is that BTC needs to outperform ES and treasury companies needs to outperform BTC Notice that all the major crypto stocks are beginning to outperform BTC as we move into the close on a volatility adjusted basis. We arent at the point yet but once a bottom comes it will be in these signals + position changes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1991598488828911670)  2025-11-20T20:04Z 79.8K followers, 59.8K engagements


"This is the reason sentiment isnt a strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1994531348531614112)  2025-11-28T22:18Z 79.7K followers, 20.6K engagements


"Gm Off to church Christ is King"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995139257208553713)  2025-11-30T14:34Z 79.8K followers, 10.2K engagements


"The macro endgame is straightforward: the currency becomes the fulcrum for everything The currency devaluation is neither inherently bullish nor bearish. The biggest misconception in markets is that it can only be bullish Same type of misconception going into 2008"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995518382297481219)  2025-12-01T15:40Z 79.8K followers, 7935 engagements


"When the selling pressure finally comes it will be insane The microstructure of the market won't be able to handle it Not there yet tho The storm is on the horizon tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996403797145616685)  2025-12-04T02:18Z 79.7K followers, 124.6K engagements


"Watch real rates here it is a critical factor moving into FOMC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996404136599076966)  2025-12-04T02:20Z 79.8K followers, 7402 engagements


"One of the best interviews I've recorded was with @JaredKubin yesterday Check out the new release on the website. This tool doesn't exist anywhere else on the internet:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996664195388150144)  2025-12-04T19:33Z 79.7K followers, 31.6K engagements


"Determination is probably the biggest piece of success - FaceBook Founder Mark Zuckerberg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996707549228552365)  2025-12-04T22:25Z 79.8K followers, 6710 engagements


"None of this is going to end well Fear is on the horizon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996714052446548361)  2025-12-04T22:51Z 79.7K followers, 10.5K engagements


"What important truths do very few people agree with you on Why does all this matter Well because a lot of financial models now assume incorrectly I think that the dollar will rally in the event of future financial instabilitysay a selloff in U.S. equities or credit. That makes it easier for investors to continue to hold dollar assets unhedged. The logic of the argument goes a bit like thissure my fund is very overweight U.S. financial assets because of the dominance of the U.S. in global equity indexes right now but that risk is partially offset by the natural hedge provided by the dollar as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996726083593687105)  2025-12-04T23:39Z 79.7K followers, 7164 engagements


"People who think the Yen carry trade is sending US mortgage rates higher are absolutely cooked They are the uninformed money. We need someone on the other side of the trade tho so always give thanks 🤲"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996323774518686088)  2025-12-03T21:00Z 79.9K followers, 12.7K engagements


"The entire question moving into this week is how Powell will guide rate cut expectations for 2026 when he is only going to be around for half the year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1997826928158654880)  2025-12-08T00:33Z 79.9K followers, 13.8K engagements


"Markets still assume dollar weakness is bullish The truth is the source of that USD weakness determines whether you get a rally or a systemic break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995271310688375013)  2025-11-30T23:18Z 79.8K followers, 22.1K engagements


"Ill be sending out an entire suite of tradingview indicators Thursday to map global macro changes Linked below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995946803251061194)  2025-12-02T20:02Z 79.8K followers, 24.5K engagements


"MAIN RISK TO US EQUITIES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996728533528596877)  2025-12-04T23:49Z 79.8K followers, 14.6K engagements


"GM HOLDING ES LONG HOLDING GOLD LONG HOLDING SILVER LONG HOLDING RTY LONG Everything was laid out for The Capital Flows Community The next move will be published today on the website If you don't align the structural cyclical and positioning factors you'll always be lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996960990488154506)  2025-12-05T15:12Z 79.8K followers, 21.5K engagements


"When foreigners buy US assets to recycle their trade surpluses it pushes valuations higher. When that flow reverses equities fall much faster than people expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995302236185063769)  2025-12-01T01:21Z 79.8K followers, 25.9K engagements


"I dont subscribe to any camp of macro beliefs Im just here to compete at the highest level and win Welcome to global macro. There are no rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995307040789643765)  2025-12-01T01:40Z 79.8K followers, 11.8K engagements


"QT ending was already priced in This isn't the driver right now Look closer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995522488760197360)  2025-12-01T15:56Z 79.8K followers, 21.3K engagements


"Here is the thesis for the macro endgame More on this in the webinar for tomorrow. Link is below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995583678664376334)  2025-12-01T19:59Z 79.8K followers, 24K engagements


"Watching how equities and bonds respond to dollar down days is critical right now Consensus doesn't want to acknowledge the dollar endgame we are in I laid out the entire playbook in the link below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996232660440821981)  2025-12-03T14:58Z 79.8K followers, 14.2K engagements


"The entire question is HOW does this impact my portfolio and allocation decisions This is why I published a full playbook with allocation strategy and the signals for WHEN the risks are increasing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996734714682789942)  2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 2484 engagements


"All of this is going to come together tomorrow when I publish the report on the connection to Japan and the global carry trade taking place right now:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996734725327933592)  2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 8085 engagements


"None of this will end well Fear is on the horizon When my strategy flips bearish I will publish it here:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996734728339444040)  2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 5232 engagements


"@__t__i__p__ I dont make the rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1994421688554213733)  2025-11-28T15:02Z 79.8K followers, XXX engagements


"Gold and silver are down on the day but copper is functionally flat Take note of that there is a bid in there imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1979257930454335604)  2025-10-17T18:47Z 79.8K followers, 23.1K engagements


"Macro Report: A Storm Is Coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1993767996821787139)  2025-11-26T19:45Z 79.9K followers, 143.4K engagements


"If you don't have a Bloomberg bookmark this tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996403465581740542)  2025-12-04T02:17Z 79.9K followers, 413.6K engagements


"This is what I believe will happen in macro: So let me share with you the truth that very few people agree with me on: I believe we are going to see an increase in macro volatility in the next XX months that will dwarf 2022 COVID and potentially 2008 but the SOURCE of volatility will be from an orchestrated devaluation in the dollar against major currencies. Most people think that a fall in the dollar or dollar devaluation will cause risk assets to rally but this couldnt be further from the truth. I believe this is the biggest risk in markets today. Most investors once assumed mortgages were"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996726766959054943)  2025-12-04T23:42Z 79.9K followers, 46.9K engagements


"Not trying to bet against Kushner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998050129593676214)  2025-12-08T15:20Z 79.8K followers, 13.9K engagements


"My macro thesis is laid out here: In my view there are downside risks building for equities which is why I am currently neutral If this stance changes to bearish or back to bullish I will publish it The storm is forming on the horizon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998110938172711153)  2025-12-08T19:22Z 79.9K followers, 28.9K engagements


"Capital Flows Macro Livestream XX Charts Mapping The Credit Cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998184541723427138)  2025-12-09T00:14Z 79.9K followers, 58.9K engagements


"1 year inflation swaps are collapsing as the H7 contract is pricing fewer cuts This is pushing real rates higher and creating headwinds for equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998480696596377725)  2025-12-09T19:51Z 79.9K followers, 28.3K engagements


"@encryptbit TV: TVC:US10Y FRED:T10YIE or $TIPS etf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998568660055765229)  2025-12-10T01:41Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements


"inflation expectations have been collapsing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998839226880983382)  2025-12-10T19:36Z 79.9K followers, 5431 engagements


"There is way to much misinformation about Japan and the carry trade going around right now Im going to share my entire Japan trading playbook this Friday If this tweet gets 1k likes Ill make it free for everyone 🤝 Run it hot frens 🫡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996322787405987851)  2025-12-03T20:56Z 79.9K followers, 34.8K engagements


"These are THE TOP BOOKS I would give someone who wants to understand macro interest rates and FX: 🧵 Understanding the history of money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996405409083752630)  2025-12-04T02:25Z 79.9K followers, 206.2K engagements


"If you understand how liquidity is functioning then you know how much risk there is from cross-border flows right now The current account (white) has gone off a cliff which is dragging capital into the US by foreigners (blue)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996724348162560182)  2025-12-04T23:32Z 79.9K followers, 17.7K engagements


"I also included an entire interest rate and FX strategy guide since crossborder liquidity is directly linked with interest rates. Why Because interest rates and the currency are two sides to the same coin NOT two separate markets:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996734717878776261)  2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.9K followers, 1995 engagements


"The Coming Storm in Global Carry: Japans Pivot and the Flows No One Is Watching"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1997051974395859082)  2025-12-05T21:14Z 79.9K followers, 55K engagements


"Watch this before making any trades this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998058742525624650)  2025-12-08T15:55Z 79.9K followers, 27.2K engagements


"@Vince_R_Jansen The quantity of money with inflation in the economy can rise which will be reflected in CPI and the quantity of money in financial markets can rise reflected in capital moving out the risk curve/valuation expansion I guess it would depend what specific youre refering too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998115679258771472)  2025-12-08T19:41Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements


"2) Growth is significantly weaker but still resilient. The implication here is that a small rise in real interest rates could begin putting a lot more downward pressure on equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413392571473978)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 2214 engagements


"The entire growth picture is part of the much larger issues that exist in the system right now and these are unlikely to go away anytime soon unless dramatic reform occurs:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413395599769899)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 3033 engagements


"My stance is significantly less aggressive and waiting for a fat pitch. There are two ways this can occur: 1) My strategy flips short because liquidity contracts further and equities begin having downside. In this scenario I would begin shorting equities 2) My strategy flips long because the headwinds in liquidity begin to prove short term in nature and the skew begins to turn back to the bullish side for US equities. In this scenario I would begin to run longs again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413406068699421)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 1673 engagements


"Gold and silver are going to keep functioning as the release valve for macro liquidity in the system until the trade imbalances are resolved Countries like the US and Japan are trying to actively push their currencies down against other currencies in order to rebalance trade This creates positive and negative liquidity impulses that need to be managed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998427447965212692)  2025-12-09T16:20Z 79.9K followers, 12.5K engagements


"China and Japan are directly linked to macro liquidity in the system This impacts gold and Bitcoin 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998428566825189415)  2025-12-09T16:24Z 79.9K followers, 7889 engagements


"Imagine that we aren't in a recession First everyone says the data is fake then they want it back when the government shuts down You cant make this stuff up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998428938755014981)  2025-12-09T16:26Z 79.9K followers, 14.4K engagements


"Macro Risk & Mindset: How to Survive the Cycle Without Blowing Up -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998477929848922346)  2025-12-09T19:40Z 79.9K followers, 40.2K engagements


"One of the key charts I covered in the livestream: X year inflation swaps are collapsing as the H7 contract is pricing fewer cuts This is pushing real rates higher and creating headwinds for equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998559381026414750)  2025-12-10T01:04Z 79.9K followers, 36.8K engagements


"Powell giving so much gasoline to the plumbing bro poasters lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998839911206605179)  2025-12-10T19:39Z 79.9K followers, 7456 engagements


"My macro views"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998858875244851554)  2025-12-10T20:54Z 79.9K followers, 7357 engagements


"The Storm Is Coming - The Most Important Video I'm Making All Year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1994833329422749921)  2025-11-29T18:18Z 79.9K followers, 80.4K engagements


"The Storm Is Coming - The Most Important Video I'm Making All Year -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1995302784883990837)  2025-12-01T01:23Z 79.8K followers, 89.1K engagements


"All of the intraday trading papers are here If you are trying to understand liquidity provision on a low timeframe you should read these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996403392076509491)  2025-12-04T02:17Z 79.9K followers, 56.2K engagements


"Global trade has created more liquidity for crypto than all the central banks combined When you realize this then you'll understand why Bitcoin rallied so much during QT Welcome to global macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996725579996110999)  2025-12-04T23:37Z 79.9K followers, 13.1K engagements


"The moment that Trump takes office (red arrow) the DXY begins to fall and this is only the beginning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996727056437334043)  2025-12-04T23:43Z 79.9K followers, 17.8K engagements


"The global trade system is the most cross-collateralized portfolio in existence The problem is that there is no central bank put in place for global trade there is only geopolitical escalation Japan is at a convergence point where it is importing A TON from China and the US If you understand how this functions then you'll understand WHY JGB yields are melting up This is going to set the stage for a much larger shock in macro volatility. I will be publishing a report on this convergence tomorrow:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1996730287636861313)  2025-12-04T23:56Z 79.9K followers, 94.2K engagements


"@BitwiseInvest Imagine not being long fartcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998106269606203672)  2025-12-08T19:03Z 79.9K followers, 2266 engagements


"I recorded an entire video last night explaining real interest rates and their connection to the macro regime:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413390004572247)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 3557 engagements


"This idea of the K shaped economy has become a topic everyone is talking about because it represents the divergence between equities and growth. I covered this chart in the video last night:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413398397342200)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 2018 engagements


"The critical thing to understand for the credit cycle is the link between valuations and liquidity. Most value investors use valuations as their entire framework instead of an input to quantify their view on liquidity. We are at the highest price to sales ratio in history but this alone isnt bearish. It only becomes bearish when liquidity turns. Liquidity is contracting marginally and facing some headwinds but we are not in a full on bear market YET"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998413403837317376)  2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 1816 engagements


"If your best example of the system being "against the little guy" is CPI data being manipulated you're not going to make it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998429114647363735)  2025-12-09T16:26Z 79.9K followers, 9702 engagements


"Who should I do a podcast/spaces with and who should I be following"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998429292733337971)  2025-12-09T16:27Z 79.9K followers, 11.5K engagements


"The "QE" is priced in already anon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1998840189968593018)  2025-12-10T19:40Z 79.9K followers, 12.5K engagements