#  @Fierce__beast Fierce_beast Fierce_beast posts on X about ai, stocks, $fds, $morn the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1472099252239224844/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +225% - [--] Month [-------] +229% - [--] Months [-------] +235% - [--] Year [---------] +439% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1472099252239224844/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -10% - [--] Month [---] +122% - [--] Months [---] +95% - [--] Year [---] +136% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1472099252239224844/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +3.90% - [--] Month [-----] +11% - [--] Months [-----] +142% - [--] Year [-----] +580% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1472099252239224844/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 66.99% [finance](/list/finance) 33.01% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 27.18% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.88% [countries](/list/countries) 1.94% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.97% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 0.97% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.97% **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai) 26.21%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) #1413, [$fds](/topic/$fds) #6, [$morn](/topic/$morn) #2, [data](/topic/data) 7.77%, [$angi](/topic/$angi) #32, [in the](/topic/in-the) 7.77%, [business](/topic/business) #4738, [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) #111, [more than](/topic/more-than) 4.85% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@fiercebeast](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@ragingventures](/creator/undefined) [@stockjabber](/creator/undefined) [@acaciacap](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@blinklebloop](/creator/undefined) [@finphysnerd](/creator/undefined) [@utilitypure](/creator/undefined) [@jk91185408](/creator/undefined) [@k3ithmccullough](/creator/undefined) [@glbeaty](/creator/undefined) [@yilengyao1](/creator/undefined) [@noodles_crusher](/creator/undefined) [@capitalfang](/creator/undefined) [@theotheraharon](/creator/undefined) [@zezimalincoln](/creator/undefined) [@jojocapital](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@polymarket](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Factset Research Systems, Inc. (FDS)](/topic/$fds) [Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)](/topic/$morn) [Angi Inc. Class A Common Stock (ANGI)](/topic/$angi) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI)](/topic/$tri) [Workday Inc (WDAY)](/topic/$wday) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Camtek Ltd (CAMT)](/topic/$camt) [Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI)](/topic/$nvmi) [Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)](/topic/$mpwr) [Expensify, Inc. (EXFY)](/topic/$exfy) [WIX.com Ltd. (WIX)](/topic/$wix) [GoDaddy, Inc. (GDDY)](/topic/$gddy) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Frodo the virtual samurai (FROG)](/topic/$frog) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [YELP INC. (YELP)](/topic/$yelp) [NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)](/topic/$nrds) [Cars.com Inc. (CARS)](/topic/$cars) [Newell Brands Inc (NWL)](/topic/$nwl) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)](/topic/$aer) [Autodesk Inc (ADSK)](/topic/$adsk) [Bentley Systems Inc (BSY)](/topic/$bsy) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Asana, Inc. (ASAN)](/topic/$asan) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Robert Half International Inc (RHI)](/topic/$rhi) [Ziff Davis, Inc. Common Stock (ZD)](/topic/$zd) [Acco Brands Corporation (ACCO)](/topic/$acco) [Coursera, Inc. (COUR)](/topic/$cour) [Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Figma, Inc. (FIG)](/topic/$fig) [FIVE9, INC. (FIVN)](/topic/$fivn) [Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC)](/topic/$epc) [WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW)](/topic/$ww) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [MediBloc (MED)](/topic/$med) [Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)](/topic/$onto) [KLA Corp (KLAC)](/topic/$klac) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "A similar dynamic occurs in what industry $AER Jensen just said GPUs are effectively sold out across the cloud with availability so tight that even renting older-generation chips has become difficult. AI bubble narrative was a bubble. https://t.co/DyBAQrQLTC Jensen just said GPUs are effectively sold out across the cloud with availability so tight that even renting older-generation chips has become difficult. AI bubble narrative was a bubble. https://t.co/DyBAQrQLTC" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2014054982589309163) 2026-01-21T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "ty $AER for all the good times. really i should thank Mr. Angus Kelly From my [----] notes: "3% of aircraft leased in 1970s 20% leased in 1990s 25% in early 2000s today roughly 40% leased. By [----] estimated 50% leased. Why Airliners need to lease in order to maintain financial flexibility and liquidity during cycles. Replacement cycle: Aircraft life-cycle 25-30 years means 3-4% of global fleet must be replaced each year roughly. Constant flow of leased aircraft with higher rents. Airbus estimates 40% will be replaced and 60% will be growth." With a big supply/demand issue for aircraft for the" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2014060480596152637) 2026-01-21T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "grocery stores have physicals moats. Digital native stocks that are reliant upon online ordering commoditized product like compounded GLP-1s have no moat. $btmd $ww $lfmd $hims $med any others im missing @Fierce__beast How do grocery stores make money @Fierce__beast How do grocery stores make money" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021612819884474446) 2026-02-11T15:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The reality is that still [--] year later the fundamental outlook for $CAMT $NVMI and $ONTO have significantly appreciated. Probably more than their current 1-year return. $KLAC has is up 100% far exceeding the peers even while the peers have a much smaller base to grow from and prior to the recent run up had outperformed KLAC on a [--] year time horizon. The market is unable to suspend its belief for what it thinks are cylical semi's. It made this mistake with $MU and $ASMl last year. It is likely at least in my view that they become cyclical again eventually. However I have been moving up my" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011349112671629339) 2026-01-14T08:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ADSK and $BSY -- i am short a small amount of each. Very low conviction but I can see a path to these sort of becoming like the $ADBE's of 2027/2028. Faster if AI gets better. There are literally examples of it already. I'm sus that they have a data advantage. If there are advanced engineering books out there that the models are training on then you couple that with the SOTA math abilities of the models I think engineering data is effectively a commodity. I believe it's likely the world goes that direction. Makes me wonder about the other design software companies. @Fierce__beast The future" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011896587807797738) 2026-01-15T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OATLY looks like an interesting short (claude excerpt below:) -- does the company ever reach profitability if north america is declining revs by high single digits Why would it suddenly change now Guidance for [----] is 3-5% rev growth. Need margins to keep inflecting up but not clear how much more that can go. "SBC is $13.3M on $862M revenue = 1.5% of revenue. Not egregious but on a company with only $6.8M adj. EBITDA SBC is 2x the adj. EBITDA. Adj. EBITDA is a very generous metric here it excludes SBC restructuring ($4.9M) China review costs ($7.5M) and other items totaling $25.2M." [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021623999709471166) 2026-02-11T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A little update on $ANGI: This observation from Burry adds another interesting element to the short thesis. I'm not quite sure the extent of work that most customers seek out on Angi's list but i do recall plumbing was a big one. The revenue estimates for $ANGI are in the screenshot attached. Another 4Q2025 revenue decline is expected by analysts but they have it suddenly returning to growth in [----]. Angi claims they can accomplish this inflection primarily through increased spending on TV ads (like 2xing it) getting more professionals on their platform and increasing the price per lead they" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2010403204056363201) 2026-01-11T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "uh oh $snap Business Insider reports $META Instagram is internally testing a prototype for a new standalone app that looks a lot like Snapchat. https://t.co/jSOUtKfTSb Business Insider reports $META Instagram is internally testing a prototype for a new standalone app that looks a lot like Snapchat. https://t.co/jSOUtKfTSb" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021071029930734055) 2026-02-10T03:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help the stock. For declining businesses cost cuts may only be perceived as temporary cash flow boosts. Stock goes up initially but then normalizes to what its true value is and in most cases is just going to be anchored a lot to its terminal growth prospects A little update on $ANGI: This observation from Burry adds another interesting element to the short thesis. I'm not quite sure the extent of work that most customers seek out on Angi's list but i do recall plumbing was a big one. The revenue estimates for $ANGI are in the https://t.co/VLWwI1YcRO A" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021329306924826752) 2026-02-10T21:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One example of this today is $PLBY. By my estimates $PLBY will likely spend all of its operating cash flows on paying down its debt. So yes this deal announced today helps it but also cannot hide the concern that its operating business is in pretty bad shape. Can they keep pushing out new license deals Maybe but what if these license deals get renewed in a year but no partner wants to renew at current rates or just cancel all together What if next quarter a few cancel or the declines in their store business accelerates For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help the stock. For declining" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021330104446849167) 2026-02-10T21:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ZezimaLincoln i don't know if the result was good why is $angi down so much after market" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021335000780767261) 2026-02-10T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "bull case for $spgi All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021398203367842126) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "have the switching costs for web hosting stocks just gone to zero $gddy $wix -- who am else am i missing here Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse in realtime 😵. https://t.co/Z7gpyizSDO Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021426752397115896) 2026-02-11T03:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Same thing happened to $MPWR when they lost allocation to blackwell and stock dropped like 40% in a few days. Then later they won it back and then later won even more from ASIC. It just seems like good things tend to happen to good companies in growth industries. But holding a good company in a prolonged bad env for its industry just unforuntaly may not be enough for a good return. $MU presentation at Wolfe just started. Let me "address some recent inaccurate reporting on our HBM [--] position." - Have been in high volume production - Commenced HBM4 production - Shipment ramping successfully in" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021626122216120553) 2026-02-11T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Moment of reckoning for my current favorite saas long $FROG. Will the artifactory get replaced or made irrelevant now that claude code and codex are so capable Or will they actually benefit from all the security add-ons they provide and explosion of code ( how does $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG not benefit from an explosion of code that literally has no theoretical limit There are lots of inefficiencies in society and until all of them are fixed or improved we may continue solving for them one after another. Any software engineers who follow me have any thoughts on $FROG We will see how wrong i am on it" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021628359843651794) 2026-02-11T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bear thesis for $REAL $AMZN $SHOP etc something about agentic shopping" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021638965296865345) 2026-02-11T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "i graduated college in [----] with a bad gpa i got fired from most jobs. i was running out of hope in [----] and had been investing for like [--] years by that point with so-so results around market return or slightly better but not full time. here's an email for a garbage truck driver job that i had an interview for. nobody wanted to hire me https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021665802269675764 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021665802269675764" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021665802269675764) 2026-02-11T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Is this the secret sauce to success in investing Who knows but I feel like if you really want to to learn about a stock stuff like this will be very table stakes. I am short stocks like $MKTW $FDS as I am almost completely convinved that financial research is going to be completely personalized to you and curated content will be completely available to you 24/7 via ChatGPT or Gemini in a few years. This will put insane pressure on pricing and subscribers for various knowledge based content services and products. There are dozens of stocks maybe more that could be massively impacted if this" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1951380343312748738) 2025-08-01T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables:" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1969461177261408298) 2025-09-20T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I've been short $FDS since this post. There is a lot of potential for disruption and generally a headwind of less seats and harder time to upsell new AI features (commoditized). Started shorting $TRI and reopened the $MORN short. $FDS is close to my PT but i see more downside @jojo_capital $FDS yea maybe i'm overestimating the rate of churn or pricing pressure. But i think ChatGPT will get faster better than FDS can and i think it obvieates theneed for FDS at its price range. I've been wrong about this for a while but only recentl put on a short. Small size for @jojo_capital $FDS yea maybe" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1969801316307210266) 2025-09-21T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "it's been the same idea as what happened to $ADBE. i see competitors to $FDS that can do 80% of what factset does for 10% or less of the monthly price. $MORN seems also implicated here. financial data or other types of analytics providers may be very pressured by 1) less users 2) pricing pressure I've been short $FDS since this post. There is a lot of potential for disruption and generally a headwind of less seats and harder time to upsell new AI features (commoditized). Started shorting $TRI and reopened the $MORN short. $FDS is close to my PT but i see more downside I've been short $FDS" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1969806235609489658) 2025-09-21T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "another blow to $exfy I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables: https://t.co/0kBVRNPtKY I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables:" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1973199709683720204) 2025-10-01T01:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "i'm short $TRI $morn $mktw and $fds. seems like they are being hit by this news i should notice the anthropic/fds partnership but i just don't see exactly how this LT benefits $fds. i think being able to provide verified financial data (the big claimed advantage of $fds) is being rapidly commoditized) https://www.reuters.com/business/lseg-partners-with-anthropic-bring-financial-data-access-claude-users-2025-10-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/lseg-partners-with-anthropic-bring-financial-data-access-claude-users-2025-10-27/" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1983594555720061192) 2025-10-29T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MORN seems a little suss. Pitchbook was supposed to be a differentiated product with proprietary data yet this segment is decelerating. Now raising debt to fund buybacks Not inherently bad but not sure it makes sense if parts of the business is decelerating. Makes me wonder if they're struggling to find reinvestment opportunities in their businesses. $MORN earnings: Morningstar Q325: Strong Credit Performance Offsets PitchBook Deceleration Morningstar delivered a solid quarter with revenue and adjusted earnings growth largely driven by an exceptional performance in its Credit business." [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1984275729253556466) 2025-10-31T15:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$rhi $tbi $hqi all down since this post. should i keep posting ideas part of the short case for $RHI $TBI $HQI "Artificial intelligence is already starting to take a "disproportionate" bite out of entry-level job opportunities in certain fields according to a paper from Stanford researchers published this week. Analyzing ADP data the study part of the short case for $RHI $TBI $HQI "Artificial intelligence is already starting to take a "disproportionate" bite out of entry-level job opportunities in certain fields according to a paper from Stanford researchers published this week. Analyzing ADP" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1986636045425729952) 2025-11-07T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "bear case for $morn $fds $mktw $TRI who am i missing The new Google Finance is shipping 🚀 - Deep Search so you can ask your most complex research q's - Prediction markets data from @Kalshi & @Polymarket so you can explore q's about future market events - And its first international expansion to India https://t.co/J8Ei788LXv https://t.co/H6b8V5VfRI The new Google Finance is shipping 🚀 - Deep Search so you can ask your most complex research q's - Prediction markets data from @Kalshi & @Polymarket so you can explore q's about future market events - And its first international expansion to" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1986656853036519514) 2025-11-07T04:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$EXFY short working. Probably just too much competition. I hear from friends this is a great product but its a mono product company with low economics and LT will have a serious issue competing with more holistic solutions IMO. Buyout risk is here so hard to short in size and large cash balance but I think that created the opportunity on the other hand. I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1986857844100985313) 2025-11-07T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ramp competes in many domains. Often a great source of short ideas is identifying fast growth startups and figuring out who's marke share they are winning. In my short thesis for $EXFY I factored this into my forecast for revenues and margins. It may be playing part in $BILL's malaise and host of other publicly traded SaaS. If Ramp is 2xing revenues why is $BILL's revenues expected to decline Is there some marketshare shift going on here Today Ramp raised another $300M at a $32B valuation. In the past year our revenue has doubled to over $1B growing 10x faster than the median public SaaS. We" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1990481796278915310) 2025-11-17T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This has everything that $fds it $morn has and it won't be the only one. is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1991274331398078748) 2025-11-19T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Are lead gen informational websites like the ones run by $QNST $NRDS $CARS $TTGT $ZD $TBLA $TRIP $YELP etc etc the retail store apocalypse of tomorrow Web traffic continues to hemorrhage to one-click and within a year or two I think it's likely that we will be in the early stages of utilizing AI agents to organize our lives plan and purchase trips order basic home goods (or return them) advise us and execute large discretionary or non-discretionary purchases like cars or homes advise us on our taxes and likely fill them out help with business formation paperwork insurance claims etc etc. If" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2009703913360961707) 2026-01-09T19:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "short case for $zip BREAKING 🚨: OpenAI is developing ChatGPT Jobs a new career-focused AI agent designed to help users with resume tips job search and career guidance. AI Job search will be a big market too 🤖 https://t.co/2QvFDqr6XM BREAKING 🚨: OpenAI is developing ChatGPT Jobs a new career-focused AI agent designed to help users with resume tips job search and career guidance. AI Job search will be a big market too 🤖 https://t.co/2QvFDqr6XM" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2009789779605680350) 2026-01-10T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NWL Fair enough It's not clear to me whether underlying demand/pricing recovers for their core products but I get the long bet here. I think 2-3 years from now the stock will likely be flat or lower given the decline in their actual products. I think they could pull off some margin efficiencies but cannot keep that up forever. So it's a tough outlook and yes there could be a valuation re-rate but there's that big looming terminal value question that might keep it lower than people think. @Fierce__beast I suggest you read the Q3 earnings transcript and then read the transcript from the Morgan" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011493451758780872) 2026-01-14T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NWL looks like a mess -- look how many brands they have. They have [--] baby stroller brands. The baby segment is probably no more than 20% of sales. Even if that grows 10% a year it would only add 2% total sales growth look at their sales compared to related peers -- Sales declines are close to $ACCO and $JOUT but they have a way higher ev/ebtida multiple interestingly enough https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011520234834829629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011520234834829629" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011520234834829629) 2026-01-14T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$mpwr this one worked and i keep holding because i think there might be something going on with robots in the next 2-3 years here but also because it really does seem to dominate in their specific niche. What am I missing on $MPWR At 580/sh it seems to be pricing a pretty steep discount on the non-AI segment and the AI segment. The company has demonstrated an ability to grow 1.5-2x faster than the industry why exactly would all of this change just based on the edgewater What am I missing on $MPWR At 580/sh it seems to be pricing a pretty steep discount on the non-AI segment and the AI" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011797503620837771) 2026-01-15T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yea the $ADBE thing happened quickly because a lot of the users also hated it and though it was overpriced. I have no idea if that's the case with $ADSK or $BSY fwiw. The concern i have is that they used to have some big advantage by having the best and most integrated design tech. But i feel like this advantage may slowly erode as AI competitors strengthen. So what they are left with is just switching costs mostly but they also need to reduce price in this scenario otherwise customers will leave. Yea something to monitor for now https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011896383658148041" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011896383658148041) 2026-01-15T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "anyone else short $mgpi or $sam Spirits companies sitting on record inventory they can't move. Anyone know where I can buy some discounted whiskey barrels https://t.co/p55Iu8lemE Spirits companies sitting on record inventory they can't move. Anyone know where I can buy some discounted whiskey barrels https://t.co/p55Iu8lemE" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2013828672323485697) 2026-01-21T04:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "dam rip SAT tutors $cour $nrdy $dcbo probably $duol Were launching full-length on demand practice exams for standardized tests in @GeminiApp starting with the SAT available now at no cost. Practice SATs are grounded in rigorously vetted content in partnership with @ThePrincetonRev and Gemini will provide immediate feedback https://t.co/GmivPuBp7B Were launching full-length on demand practice exams for standardized tests in @GeminiApp starting with the SAT available now at no cost. Practice SATs are grounded in rigorously vetted content in partnership with @ThePrincetonRev and Gemini will" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2014063309331292312) 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I am short a lot of SaaS but also am starting to increase SaaS long exposure. I am long some $WDAY and $FROG for now. Obviously very long $AMZN $GOOG and all the main semi's $TSM $NVDA $MU $ASML $NVMI $CAMT -- these seem like sure bets as enterprise adoption kicks the second leg of the AI scale buildout into hyperdrive for the next [--] months at least. Alarm bells are going off for beaten down SaaS though. Found one with accelerating rev growth super FCF positive down 50% over the last year and not totally sure if AI even disrupts them since they have some physical presence exposure." [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015516563772670441) 2026-01-25T20:06Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements "Losing SaaS vs winning SaaS A SaaS like $ASAN seems very bad and I am short. Will they ever scale if their rev growth continues decelerating (financials in screenshot) I am long $FROG. There seems to be a possible direct correlations between the amount of code and ultimately applications being generated and their cloud business. Look at the inflection if their growth since Claude [---] came out and now imagine what that growth might be over the next year as claude [---] adoption explodes. I am short a lot of SaaS but also am starting to increase SaaS long exposure. I am long some $WDAY and $FROG" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015521307727650818) 2026-01-25T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Wait is this a bull or bear case for $WDAY -- anthropic engineer hates it but still uses it Weird. Sounds like Anthropic didnt just use Claude Code to make their own $WDAY. Weird. Sounds like Anthropic didnt just use Claude Code to make their own $WDAY" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015522809959596136) 2026-01-25T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@UtilityPure How do you know -- have you ran an ERP integration before" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015530483828834699) 2026-01-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Jk91185408 yes but does that mean for rev/margins for stocks like $crm $wday" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015592899652812810) 2026-01-26T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HCA I am long The bull case for hospitals: https://t.co/BI5dPF1Vvm Minute 19:00 Less busy work for nurses charting. 5m nurse shortage in the US. AI does charting and transcription for patient visits nurses spend 50% of their time charting. They can spend more time visiting patients and The bull case for hospitals: https://t.co/BI5dPF1Vvm Minute 19:00 Less busy work for nurses charting. 5m nurse shortage in the US. AI does charting and transcription for patient visits nurses spend 50% of their time charting. They can spend more time visiting patients and" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2016185031597633758) 2026-01-27T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "like $MPWR is a stock i've been long and wrote about it when it was $550/sh. i thought "fair value was in the range of [---] upper bound. and i just don't think that in the majority of cases it's worth rotating out of it to buy a stock like $gddy that had an 11x fwd p/e and growing low double digit eps which would have 100% upside if it turns out to be roughly stable in the LT https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016197470389240060 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016197470389240060" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2016197470389240060) 2026-01-27T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MPWR early testing of claude back in [----] My god how things have changed since.You cannot make up how dramatically the world has shifted. I thought fair value was somewhere around $750-$850 at that time in Nov [----]. I was new to the stock and forecasted what i thought was likely. Full saga of my thoughts scattered throughout my feed fun to look back on what went right and what went wrong I am long some $MPWR in my new hedge fund sleeve. $MPWR https://t.co/PTmNRRoVsk $MPWR https://t.co/PTmNRRoVsk" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2017067785688666349) 2026-01-30T02:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$cars short saw the openclaw thing use this to buy a car for someone and negotiate prices with various dealers. lead gen for cars mmmm. scary. why would dealers pay for visibility if clawbot or some other ai agent negotiates a price for you direct also autonomous vehicles slowly gonna eat into volumes http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2017375928318619779) 2026-01-30T23:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RagingVentures i'm short all but $wday am long" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2018835557116453318) 2026-02-03T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Would have been a good one. I have non-ai disruption shorts but the ones that have done the best are all AI related. Disruption is a great short. Now am thinking $MSFT at such low levels even if Office goes to zero overtime but Azure survives and thrives is the valuation good Is this a good investment now @StockJabber I think the AI short could be an entire short portfolio. If you are able to get a little creative I think there are ideas everywhere @StockJabber I think the AI short could be an entire short portfolio. If you are able to get a little creative I think there are ideas everywhere" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2018889406522720684) 2026-02-04T03:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "does anyone know anyone who uses and loves $PTON or $SNAP $SNAP not growing much in US That doesn't seem good because ARPU is higher in US. Same story $PINS. $COUR earnings tn Estimates look like its expected to grow a lot in [----] but how $EGHT results with declining incremental margins How is that gonna work out LT for them https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019471291581882658 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019471291581882658" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019471291581882658) 2026-02-05T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Anybody worried about long $CARS or $QNST $EVR $NRDS I am" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019471647657390352) 2026-02-05T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "woah. $msft How dylan repays satya for that datacenter tour 🥀 https://t.co/7rfZEEdzCy How dylan repays satya for that datacenter tour 🥀 https://t.co/7rfZEEdzCy" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019552575889219726) 2026-02-05T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "the bear case on hyperscalers: they are irrationally spending to take share and there is no current or expected realistically high enough ROI to justify the investment. ok so why not go into $tsm or $asml then it would seem irrational for those to sell-off too. The hyperscalers have all converged on spending 65% of gross profit on capex. [--] years ago the average was 33% and from 2017-2022 it was 27%. https://t.co/xKPlMvXlWZ The hyperscalers have all converged on spending 65% of gross profit on capex. [--] years ago the average was 33% and from 2017-2022 it was 27%. https://t.co/xKPlMvXlWZ" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019566595950227882) 2026-02-06T00:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "poor $FIG https://blog.janestreet.com/i-design-with-claude-code-more-than-figma-now-index/ https://blog.janestreet.com/i-design-with-claude-code-more-than-figma-now-index/" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019588669976527003) 2026-02-06T01:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What happens to investment banking fees and equity research value Do we short banks that have high exposure to this" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019632156989849649) 2026-02-06T04:40Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements "I'm short some $ENR but is it actually just too cheap here It's very close to being too cheap i think I get around 2.6/sh of real eps. If that declines at 2-3% perhaps a fair value might be roughly at this price i would guess. And if its anything more than that the stock could go lower first. LT headwinds are lower cost substitutes and who cares about battery brands at all Also aren't most consumer batteries going integrated lithium-ion (rechargeable via USB-C) look at the organic growth (claude snapshot). The decline accelerated starting in FY1Q25. APS (Advanced Power Solutions) was acquired" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019639256533090505) 2026-02-06T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Long $COKE Just brainstorming some things you cannot currently prompt your way out of: -Eating -Toilet Paper -Drinking -Extracting Raw Materials -Turning Raw Materials into Goods -Aging -Lead times -Supply chains -Oil Just brainstorming some things you cannot currently prompt your way out of: -Eating -Toilet Paper -Drinking -Extracting Raw Materials -Turning Raw Materials into Goods -Aging -Lead times -Supply chains -Oil" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019640092730524078) 2026-02-06T05:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "short $OI though" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019640174700114047) 2026-02-06T05:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "who's paying $35k a year for screeners and financial analysis when there are options to get roughly 80-90% of everything you need with claude and TIKR for 10x less I've used factset and bloomberg and unfortunately i can tell you that the rate at which AI is improving these tools seem to me to be in serious trouble of losing a lot of relevance and thus value over time. it will likely just be a slow and gradual bleed but there is a non-zero growing probability this happens in like [--] years. i guess i'll likely continue being short $fds and $morn. there is an extension of this short thesis to" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019773856064442527) 2026-02-06T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "shocked that ai capex for [----] just got revised up by like 25% (about 120b) in a week and no meaningful move in Semis. xAI gets the capital base of Spacex to raise even more capital. Anthropic threatening openai and its VCs scrambling to raise even more capital asap. sorry to bring it up but it seems simply too divergent to not bring it up. Has there ever been a stronger and perhaps more sustainable undercurrent than what we are seeing here Just NT speaking not medium or LT even. like next [--] months time frame. my pedantic and annoyingly recurring thoughts on how this plays out: 1) market is" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019779869811363843) 2026-02-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "for sure -- but what didn't get right basically the entire universe of saas stocks that might be impacted. all i cared was for it to rank the largest to smallest and give a list of saas seat based stocks. i think the finer details of less hallucinations will be solved over time. but i agree and for financial analysis i use something like TIKR supplementing the work i do with claude https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781082170691614 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781082170691614" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019781082170691614) 2026-02-06T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AcaciaCap @pekwat i've seen someone bearish on even pitchbook" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019799743866527781) 2026-02-06T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "minute [--] bear case $crm new AI companies that are claiming to replace your salesforce and replacing 10-20-30 sales people. CRM is still great but what happens to seat based pricing if this AI stuff succeeds https://m.youtube.com/watchv=F9NekS6PCM0 https://m.youtube.com/watchv=F9NekS6PCM0" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019803594015621201) 2026-02-06T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RagingVentures @firstadopter but why ok in theory if they LLM could accurately compile data from SEC filings and press releases isn't that like 90% of what buyside/sellside guys use factset for" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019809811634987302) 2026-02-06T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@k3ithmccullough just type $fds in my search profile" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019926712038092928) 2026-02-07T00:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Blinklebloop $adbe $fig $sstk etc etc https://x.com/fierce__beast/status/1797641284288688523s=46 What duopoly/monopoly type of industries or businesses are being disrupted by AI today I have a few but one interesting name that comes to mind is $adbe -- pricing power and retention likely to decline vs historical rates due to alternatives like Midjourney. https://x.com/fierce__beast/status/1797641284288688523s=46 What duopoly/monopoly type of industries or businesses are being disrupted by AI today I have a few but one interesting name that comes to mind is $adbe -- pricing power and retention" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2020579711949377742) 2026-02-08T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "if saas stocks recover eventually and survive won't they just have more money to spend on AI products" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2020601798088864163) 2026-02-08T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@its_moonberries if company survives stock survives" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2020604626983326182) 2026-02-08T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "short $alrm $rezi etc i wonder I was inspired by this so I wanted to see if Claude Code can get into my Lutron home automation system. - it found my Lutron controllers on the local wifi network - checked for open ports connected got some metadata and identified the devices and their firmware - searched the I was inspired by this so I wanted to see if Claude Code can get into my Lutron home automation system. - it found my Lutron controllers on the local wifi network - checked for open ports connected got some metadata and identified the devices and their firmware - searched the" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2005074077615292646) 2025-12-28T00:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I am short some $NWL with a pt [---]. This is a lower conviction idea since there is no clear explanation as to why the business is struggling. Maybe there is some disruption of Schools buying less stuff because everyone is doing a lot more digital stuff: Writing (Sharpie/Paper Mate) -- maybe private label erosion or shift to digital Outdoor (Coleman) -- specialty DTC brands i guess Baby (Graco) -- different competitive set entirely Home fragrance (Yankee Candle) -- candle commoditization Here are the facts: [--]. [--] consecutive quarters of high single digit rev growth and EPS declines 2." [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011341966961688891) 2026-01-14T07:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ACCO Seems like underneath its relative stability is a huge fundamental problem. The reason it's stable I think is because of cost savings initiatives that now seem behind it. So now I'm not sure how much longer that lasts and then what happens I think there is a small chance that the company rapidly deteriorates from here or more likely that it continues to gradually worsen. It's not clear to me that it's a short. by my estimate it trades somewhere in the range of 2-4x forward real earnings. That is pricing a swift end which I think there is actually only a small chance of happening. On the" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011349479912264114) 2026-01-14T08:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CTRI Thesis is they don't have much exposure to capacity additions but they should LT benefit from more maintenance work. They are trying to get more involved in the same stuff $PWR does but it's a long shot let's be honest. Seemed like one of the few power beneficiaries still trading for a decent valuation on a likely strong multi-year tailwind for the stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995967632755786169 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995967632755786169" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1995967632755786169) 2025-12-02T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@murrayst_res very cool example. And somehow that doesn't really feel surprising. $fvrr not sure. still need a human in the loop but inidivudal tasks are getting automated. just lets human do a lot more higher level stuff now. just not sure about that one" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011911550685081939) 2026-01-15T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GDRX vs TrumpRX huh" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019472246419472528) 2026-02-05T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What happens to the customer base of $FDS if they have more options What happens to active investing if AI's make things even more competitive and difficult to find edges in the market I mean Opus [---] isn't terrible but it is still using unreliable web data pulled from Yahoo Finance and random websites. There is no way this replaces FactSet (FDS stock down 7% on dumb media" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019555040021692726) 2026-02-05T23:33Z [----] followers, 49.6K engagements "How can $NVDA $AMZN $TSM and $GOOG all be down because of increased capex Hmm. Let's see. [--]. Peak cycle -- there will be no more capital for [----] or [----] capex to keep growing. Not impossible at all. What if there are no more SaaS stocks to keep spending on cloud services What if all the AI native startups fail My counter -- look at freaking code applications alone. 2% github commits from claude code on a 2T tam for software (thanks @SemiAnalysis_ ). What happens to that [--] years from now 20% -- 50% [--]. $NVDA down because more marketshare to $AMZN and TPU So then $AMZN takes massive share in" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019560938576248894) 2026-02-05T23:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "disgusting what opus [---] can do and what it means for $FDS and $MORN and other analytics providers. I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What happens to the customer base of $FDS if they I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019603386472206527) 2026-02-06T02:45Z [----] followers, 49.4K engagements "Efficiency era for banks incoming but bodes poorly for $rhi $kfrc $cbx and consultants $acn $hurn probably many others immmissing GOLDMAN SACHS $GS IS TAPPING ANTHROPICS AI MODEL TO AUTOMATE ACCOUNTING COMPLIANCE ROLES Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive high-volume back-office work - CNBC https://t.co/BcVwYUj301 GOLDMAN SACHS $GS IS TAPPING ANTHROPICS AI MODEL TO AUTOMATE ACCOUNTING COMPLIANCE ROLES Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive high-volume" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2019775621987987705) 2026-02-06T14:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "i first wrote about $ANGI here A couple more short ideas: $ANGI has been a bad company for a while losing to Google local service ads thumbtack taskrabbit houzz amazon home services and others. i feel like this gets worse with AI. but if not they have tried different things and fundamentals keep getting A couple more short ideas: $ANGI has been a bad company for a while losing to Google local service ads thumbtack taskrabbit houzz amazon home services and others. i feel like this gets worse with AI. but if not they have tried different things and fundamentals keep getting" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021338069241299039) 2026-02-10T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "interesting bull thesis for payments tech. I am short $MQ $PAR and $LSPD though Our rival @brexHQ just sold to @CapitalOne for $5.1B. I think this is the start of fintech's $100B decade. Every major bank is staring at the same problem. Their infrastructure is [--] years behind. They know it. Their boards know it. Their investors know it. They also know they Our rival @brexHQ just sold to @CapitalOne for $5.1B. I think this is the start of fintech's $100B decade. Every major bank is staring at the same problem. Their infrastructure is [--] years behind. They know it. Their boards know it. Their" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2016626036008497547) 2026-01-28T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ANGI 1q26 ebitda guide down 40% from prior year and maybe 50% or so below consensus of around 30m EBITDA and they are guiding to 15-17m EBITDA Ok. Why All KPI's measures are up. If you wanna spend more you're gonna get more growth. You go crazy spending you're gonna get really good growth. I dunno what $ANGI has in mind but it's not even a current problem angi has just faced tons of competitors for a while. It's just not going anywhere and getting marginally wrose over time as competitors and alternatives take share. Let's see how it does tomorrow For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021338939399831927) 2026-02-10T21:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "have the switching costs for web hosting stocks just been mostly obliterated $gddy $wix -- who am else am i missing here Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse in realtime 😵. https://t.co/Z7gpyizSDO Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021415102810030175) 2026-02-11T02:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes this link was what I was referring to. Wix i think pays ChatGPT for leads this way. I don't think you can actually build anything on chatgpt yet it directs you to the Wix Website. On $WIX i just saw a 2B startup website builder is raising money and doing well. https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/28/no-code-website-builder-framer-reaches-2b-valuation/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/28/no-code-website-builder-framer-reaches-2b-valuation/" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1961420867876818993) 2025-08-29T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Heading back to NYC Spent last [--] weeks in rio. pretty insane lifestyle some people have. i met an investor he lives [--] block from the beach [--] block from his office works out everyday and takes a swim multiple times a week. Anyone want to meet to talk saas stocks in NYC maybe we can get a group of people together" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2020702819045581315) 2026-02-09T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "do you not think $goog can do this and better too $TMUS $DUOL T-Mobile introduced real-time AI translation for phone calls across 50+ languages built directly into its wireless network 🗣💬 Shares of Duolingo fell about 5% in premarket trading. How big is the moat of Duolingo 🤔 https://t.co/hmi7rshJGu $TMUS $DUOL T-Mobile introduced real-time AI translation for phone calls across 50+ languages built directly into its wireless network 🗣💬 Shares of Duolingo fell about 5% in premarket trading. How big is the moat of Duolingo 🤔 https://t.co/hmi7rshJGu" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021648465441566784) 2026-02-11T18:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "bull case for $real @Fierce__beast $REAL is not disruptable (prob $AMZN too not sure on $SHOP) because literally their entire edge is the physical verification/distribution center. Can never be replicated by AI. @Fierce__beast $REAL is not disruptable (prob $AMZN too not sure on $SHOP) because literally their entire edge is the physical verification/distribution center. Can never be replicated by AI" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2021689568806707346) 2026-02-11T20:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I continue to be short these stock more than [--] years later and reinitiated these positions when I started a L/S account this June. $EGHT $FIVN $TTEC. I see increased pressure from new emerging AI customer service startups that do not seem to be reflected in estimates. I am short $EGHT $FIVN and $TTEC and laid out the bear thesis on CcaaS almost [--] years ago. https://t.co/yZZktp4ptQ I am short $EGHT $FIVN and $TTEC and laid out the bear thesis on CcaaS almost [--] years ago. https://t.co/yZZktp4ptQ" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1986837919810646028) 2025-11-07T16:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is the kinda stuff that makes me want to feel bearish for $FDS $MKTW $TRI $MORN etc We are hiring a software engineer to help us scale Perplexity Finance to the next order of magnitude. Our team is just a few people and we typically launch a substantial new feature every few days. Our goal is to make premium data and financial analysis available to everyone. We are hiring a software engineer to help us scale Perplexity Finance to the next order of magnitude. Our team is just a few people and we typically launch a substantial new feature every few days. Our goal is to make premium data" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1988531900567155185) 2025-11-12T08:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@orrdavid @finphysnerd I am short this and it's parent $EPC Both companies feel like old relics of a time when consistency of goods wasn't guaranteed and brand mattered. Both stocks seems like tier [--] or [--] products in mature industries with lots of alternatives available" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1997239195870622208) 2025-12-06T09:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How about shorting just boring declining businesses like $THRY $EPC $TEAD $IT You don't need to worry as much about meme upside high short interest or fantastic stories going the wrong way for you It seems like a lot of people focus on clearly overvalued or fraudulent shorts -- but then you actually get deminishing risk/rewards in those since they are too obvious and well known. ANother wayt o mitigate this blowup risk is just sizing them at much lower levels or even avoiding story stocks outright. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997436048587313382" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1997436048587313382) 2025-12-06T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PSO 4Q results in line but a NJ school contract loss and lack of guidance for [----] i guess caused the sell-off. The report official 4Q end of February $SCHL bad short over the last [--] months $WLY and $PSO good short. https://t.co/ZDlKqoDl6H Wonder what this means for $PSO or $SCHL or $WLY or other education based services. A short ramble: The short thesis would something like AI reduces education content pricing and so it lowers the competitive advantage of incumbents. One interesting https://t.co/ZDlKqoDl6H Wonder what this means for $PSO or $SCHL or $WLY or other education based services. A" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011538060018925913) 2026-01-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "10-20% in advanced packaging should good enough for $camt and $nvmi here. the magnitude of the numbers are massive in comparison to their businesses Capex to grow to $52-$56B from $40.9B in [----]. 70-80% on advanced node 10% speciallity 10-20% advanced packaging testing mask making and others. Depreciation to increase high teens y/y in '26. Capex to grow to $52-$56B from $40.9B in [----]. 70-80% on advanced node 10% speciallity 10-20% advanced packaging testing mask making and others. Depreciation to increase high teens y/y in '26" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011698757524684900) 2026-01-15T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yea dude why not just go long $REAL then Jk. Yea -- your views make sense but they might be a tiny bit too LT. In the next [--] years will AI agents be this good and what happens to how SaaS evolves before this eventuality What if the incumbents evolve a lot before then. Let's say WDAY creates an AI solution that replaces most of your HR/operations team What if CRM creates an AI solution that replaces most of your Sales/operations teams What if using scaled inference that $CRM or $WDAY can buy is better than attempting to do it in house https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015510967107600748" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2015510967107600748) 2026-01-25T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "at the end of [----] semicaps $TSM $ASML $CAMT $NVMI etc were trading below their valuation multiples at the release of ChatGPT -- that seemed very incongruent to me @DeepValueStonks How about semiconductors They are the beneficiaries enablers if you will of LLM commoditization. @DeepValueStonks How about semiconductors They are the beneficiaries enablers if you will of LLM commoditization" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2016187148181852671) 2026-01-27T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "this seems like the most optimal thing to do right now. maybe not for the LT but if you're competitors are doing this it almost forces your hand. Azure still grew 39% last quarter. inference compute seems likely to explode for the next few quarters at least. Though i would personally wager a much longer runway than that. Prediction: workplaces that let their engineers let it rip on tokens are going to get the best context engineers and being the best at that will matter a lot more than other skills the next [--] years Prediction: workplaces that let their engineers let it rip on tokens are" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2018007737351721177) 2026-02-01T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@valuations_ $tsla" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2018301290095231266) 2026-02-02T12:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "short thesis on $asgn from July i am short a little $ASGN. Organically the business has been declining in the high single digits for the last several quarters. If not for acquisitions over the last [--] years I estimate the business would be in decline. For example they spent 1.35b on acquisitions over the i am short a little $ASGN. Organically the business has been declining in the high single digits for the last several quarters. If not for acquisitions over the last [--] years I estimate the business would be in decline. For example they spent 1.35b on acquisitions over the" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1981354711669489849) 2025-10-23T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ANGI Looks worse than i thought $Angi i am holding my short . My PT is 14/sh but this does dent my thesis a bit. Short interest was too high going into this which I misjudged at 12.5% but i think it'll be washed out a little after today. i think no reason to cover on this jump right now even though it was kind https://t.co/9DbKlM24qQ $Angi i am holding my short . My PT is 14/sh but this does dent my thesis a bit. Short interest was too high going into this which I misjudged at 12.5% but i think it'll be washed out a little after today. i think no reason to cover on this jump right now even" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1985821361047294338) 2025-11-04T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting thread on $FIVN I don't know what the takeaway is yet but a few things i know for sure are: 1) I have made many mistakes 2) a lot of those mistakes came from undervaluing the magnitude that potential changes in the competitive dynamics of an industry may have on an individual company @jonrice80 this was just one example of lower pricing. I don't know if others are doing it but AI lowers the competitive advantages these companies have accrued. Unless they have a major competitive moat i think pricing pressure will be a big issue not just from competitors but because @jonrice80 this" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1991403736179024177) 2025-11-20T07:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "He gives a concrete example of how claude replaced a lot of his maintenance work of answering questions from new hires. This is bear case for stocks like $NICE $TASK $CNXC etc. Look what he wrote in [----]. 100x larger compute projects expected. @andy_l_jones is a thoughtful forecaster https://t.co/uaC2DGxe3f Look what he wrote in [----]. 100x larger compute projects expected. @andy_l_jones is a thoughtful forecaster https://t.co/uaC2DGxe3f" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1998266652518170749) 2025-12-09T05:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@glbeaty Yea that seems right. I think the $ANGI short will mostly only work due encroaching competition and higher CAC. The DIY vs hiring thing is a little speculative and if happens only would be at the margins at least NT" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2011096160300384709) 2026-01-13T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "what's the bull case for $yelp Think of review summaries as your personal TLDR. Just open a spot on Google Maps scroll to the reviews and Gemini gives you a quick overview of what people are saying. https://t.co/TrbiAxDqNH Think of review summaries as your personal TLDR. Just open a spot on Google Maps scroll to the reviews and Gemini gives you a quick overview of what people are saying. https://t.co/TrbiAxDqNH" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1969431870975717478) 2025-09-20T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tough setup for stocks reliant on web traffic. I feel like we've been seeing this play out at $IAC and all the lawsuits but can't short that because of the MGM stake. I am short $TTGT $ZD $NRDS $QNST $TBLA $TEAD $SEMR etc Listed some other potential ones in image" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/1969799726838038633) 2025-09-21T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The bull case for $YELP $YELP now trading at a 9% forward earnings yield with a 20% net cash balance. You've simply never seen anything like this before. Hiding out in plain sight. It's not without risk but wow. If this thing moons it will be so obvious in hindsight. I'm getting long af. Over 3% now. $YELP now trading at a 9% forward earnings yield with a 20% net cash balance. You've simply never seen anything like this before. Hiding out in plain sight. It's not without risk but wow. If this thing moons it will be so obvious in hindsight. I'm getting long af. Over 3% now" [X Link](https://x.com/Fierce__beast/status/2012673978234540308) 2026-01-17T23:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Fierce__beast Fierce_beastFierce_beast posts on X about ai, stocks, $fds, $morn the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 66.99% finance 33.01% technology brands 27.18% cryptocurrencies 3.88% countries 1.94% social networks 0.97% financial services 0.97% automotive brands 0.97%
Social topic influence ai 26.21%, stocks #1413, $fds #6, $morn #2, data 7.77%, $angi #32, in the 7.77%, business #4738, $amzn #111, more than 4.85%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @fiercebeast @joinyellowbrick @ragingventures @stockjabber @acaciacap @firstadopter @blinklebloop @finphysnerd @utilitypure @jk91185408 @k3ithmccullough @glbeaty @yilengyao1 @noodles_crusher @capitalfang @theotheraharon @zezimalincoln @jojocapital @kalshi @polymarket
Top assets mentioned Factset Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Angi Inc. Class A Common Stock (ANGI) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI) Workday Inc (WDAY) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Camtek Ltd (CAMT) Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI) Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Expensify, Inc. (EXFY) WIX.com Ltd. (WIX) GoDaddy, Inc. (GDDY) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Frodo the virtual samurai (FROG) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) YELP INC. (YELP) NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) Cars.com Inc. (CARS) Newell Brands Inc (NWL) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER) Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Bentley Systems Inc (BSY) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Asana, Inc. (ASAN) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Robert Half International Inc (RHI) Ziff Davis, Inc. Common Stock (ZD) Acco Brands Corporation (ACCO) Coursera, Inc. (COUR) Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Figma, Inc. (FIG) FIVE9, INC. (FIVN) Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC) WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) MediBloc (MED) Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) KLA Corp (KLAC)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"A similar dynamic occurs in what industry $AER Jensen just said GPUs are effectively sold out across the cloud with availability so tight that even renting older-generation chips has become difficult. AI bubble narrative was a bubble. https://t.co/DyBAQrQLTC Jensen just said GPUs are effectively sold out across the cloud with availability so tight that even renting older-generation chips has become difficult. AI bubble narrative was a bubble. https://t.co/DyBAQrQLTC"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ty $AER for all the good times. really i should thank Mr. Angus Kelly From my [----] notes: "3% of aircraft leased in 1970s 20% leased in 1990s 25% in early 2000s today roughly 40% leased. By [----] estimated 50% leased. Why Airliners need to lease in order to maintain financial flexibility and liquidity during cycles. Replacement cycle: Aircraft life-cycle 25-30 years means 3-4% of global fleet must be replaced each year roughly. Constant flow of leased aircraft with higher rents. Airbus estimates 40% will be replaced and 60% will be growth." With a big supply/demand issue for aircraft for the"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"grocery stores have physicals moats. Digital native stocks that are reliant upon online ordering commoditized product like compounded GLP-1s have no moat. $btmd $ww $lfmd $hims $med any others im missing @Fierce__beast How do grocery stores make money @Fierce__beast How do grocery stores make money"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The reality is that still [--] year later the fundamental outlook for $CAMT $NVMI and $ONTO have significantly appreciated. Probably more than their current 1-year return. $KLAC has is up 100% far exceeding the peers even while the peers have a much smaller base to grow from and prior to the recent run up had outperformed KLAC on a [--] year time horizon. The market is unable to suspend its belief for what it thinks are cylical semi's. It made this mistake with $MU and $ASMl last year. It is likely at least in my view that they become cyclical again eventually. However I have been moving up my"
X Link 2026-01-14T08:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ADSK and $BSY -- i am short a small amount of each. Very low conviction but I can see a path to these sort of becoming like the $ADBE's of 2027/2028. Faster if AI gets better. There are literally examples of it already. I'm sus that they have a data advantage. If there are advanced engineering books out there that the models are training on then you couple that with the SOTA math abilities of the models I think engineering data is effectively a commodity. I believe it's likely the world goes that direction. Makes me wonder about the other design software companies. @Fierce__beast The future"
X Link 2026-01-15T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OATLY looks like an interesting short (claude excerpt below:) -- does the company ever reach profitability if north america is declining revs by high single digits Why would it suddenly change now Guidance for [----] is 3-5% rev growth. Need margins to keep inflecting up but not clear how much more that can go. "SBC is $13.3M on $862M revenue = 1.5% of revenue. Not egregious but on a company with only $6.8M adj. EBITDA SBC is 2x the adj. EBITDA. Adj. EBITDA is a very generous metric here it excludes SBC restructuring ($4.9M) China review costs ($7.5M) and other items totaling $25.2M."
X Link 2026-02-11T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A little update on $ANGI: This observation from Burry adds another interesting element to the short thesis. I'm not quite sure the extent of work that most customers seek out on Angi's list but i do recall plumbing was a big one. The revenue estimates for $ANGI are in the screenshot attached. Another 4Q2025 revenue decline is expected by analysts but they have it suddenly returning to growth in [----]. Angi claims they can accomplish this inflection primarily through increased spending on TV ads (like 2xing it) getting more professionals on their platform and increasing the price per lead they"
X Link 2026-01-11T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"uh oh $snap Business Insider reports $META Instagram is internally testing a prototype for a new standalone app that looks a lot like Snapchat. https://t.co/jSOUtKfTSb Business Insider reports $META Instagram is internally testing a prototype for a new standalone app that looks a lot like Snapchat. https://t.co/jSOUtKfTSb"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help the stock. For declining businesses cost cuts may only be perceived as temporary cash flow boosts. Stock goes up initially but then normalizes to what its true value is and in most cases is just going to be anchored a lot to its terminal growth prospects A little update on $ANGI: This observation from Burry adds another interesting element to the short thesis. I'm not quite sure the extent of work that most customers seek out on Angi's list but i do recall plumbing was a big one. The revenue estimates for $ANGI are in the https://t.co/VLWwI1YcRO A"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One example of this today is $PLBY. By my estimates $PLBY will likely spend all of its operating cash flows on paying down its debt. So yes this deal announced today helps it but also cannot hide the concern that its operating business is in pretty bad shape. Can they keep pushing out new license deals Maybe but what if these license deals get renewed in a year but no partner wants to renew at current rates or just cancel all together What if next quarter a few cancel or the declines in their store business accelerates For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help the stock. For declining"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ZezimaLincoln i don't know if the result was good why is $angi down so much after market"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"bull case for $spgi All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"have the switching costs for web hosting stocks just gone to zero $gddy $wix -- who am else am i missing here Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse in realtime 😵. https://t.co/Z7gpyizSDO Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Same thing happened to $MPWR when they lost allocation to blackwell and stock dropped like 40% in a few days. Then later they won it back and then later won even more from ASIC. It just seems like good things tend to happen to good companies in growth industries. But holding a good company in a prolonged bad env for its industry just unforuntaly may not be enough for a good return. $MU presentation at Wolfe just started. Let me "address some recent inaccurate reporting on our HBM [--] position." - Have been in high volume production - Commenced HBM4 production - Shipment ramping successfully in"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Moment of reckoning for my current favorite saas long $FROG. Will the artifactory get replaced or made irrelevant now that claude code and codex are so capable Or will they actually benefit from all the security add-ons they provide and explosion of code ( how does $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG not benefit from an explosion of code that literally has no theoretical limit There are lots of inefficiencies in society and until all of them are fixed or improved we may continue solving for them one after another. Any software engineers who follow me have any thoughts on $FROG We will see how wrong i am on it"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bear thesis for $REAL $AMZN $SHOP etc something about agentic shopping"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"i graduated college in [----] with a bad gpa i got fired from most jobs. i was running out of hope in [----] and had been investing for like [--] years by that point with so-so results around market return or slightly better but not full time. here's an email for a garbage truck driver job that i had an interview for. nobody wanted to hire me https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021665802269675764 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021665802269675764"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is this the secret sauce to success in investing Who knows but I feel like if you really want to to learn about a stock stuff like this will be very table stakes. I am short stocks like $MKTW $FDS as I am almost completely convinved that financial research is going to be completely personalized to you and curated content will be completely available to you 24/7 via ChatGPT or Gemini in a few years. This will put insane pressure on pricing and subscribers for various knowledge based content services and products. There are dozens of stocks maybe more that could be massively impacted if this"
X Link 2025-08-01T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables:"
X Link 2025-09-20T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I've been short $FDS since this post. There is a lot of potential for disruption and generally a headwind of less seats and harder time to upsell new AI features (commoditized). Started shorting $TRI and reopened the $MORN short. $FDS is close to my PT but i see more downside @jojo_capital $FDS yea maybe i'm overestimating the rate of churn or pricing pressure. But i think ChatGPT will get faster better than FDS can and i think it obvieates theneed for FDS at its price range. I've been wrong about this for a while but only recentl put on a short. Small size for @jojo_capital $FDS yea maybe"
X Link 2025-09-21T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"it's been the same idea as what happened to $ADBE. i see competitors to $FDS that can do 80% of what factset does for 10% or less of the monthly price. $MORN seems also implicated here. financial data or other types of analytics providers may be very pressured by 1) less users 2) pricing pressure I've been short $FDS since this post. There is a lot of potential for disruption and generally a headwind of less seats and harder time to upsell new AI features (commoditized). Started shorting $TRI and reopened the $MORN short. $FDS is close to my PT but i see more downside I've been short $FDS"
X Link 2025-09-21T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"another blow to $exfy I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables: https://t.co/0kBVRNPtKY I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small businesses (12 people). Some tables:"
X Link 2025-10-01T01:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"i'm short $TRI $morn $mktw and $fds. seems like they are being hit by this news i should notice the anthropic/fds partnership but i just don't see exactly how this LT benefits $fds. i think being able to provide verified financial data (the big claimed advantage of $fds) is being rapidly commoditized) https://www.reuters.com/business/lseg-partners-with-anthropic-bring-financial-data-access-claude-users-2025-10-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/lseg-partners-with-anthropic-bring-financial-data-access-claude-users-2025-10-27/"
X Link 2025-10-29T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MORN seems a little suss. Pitchbook was supposed to be a differentiated product with proprietary data yet this segment is decelerating. Now raising debt to fund buybacks Not inherently bad but not sure it makes sense if parts of the business is decelerating. Makes me wonder if they're struggling to find reinvestment opportunities in their businesses. $MORN earnings: Morningstar Q325: Strong Credit Performance Offsets PitchBook Deceleration Morningstar delivered a solid quarter with revenue and adjusted earnings growth largely driven by an exceptional performance in its Credit business."
X Link 2025-10-31T15:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$rhi $tbi $hqi all down since this post. should i keep posting ideas part of the short case for $RHI $TBI $HQI "Artificial intelligence is already starting to take a "disproportionate" bite out of entry-level job opportunities in certain fields according to a paper from Stanford researchers published this week. Analyzing ADP data the study part of the short case for $RHI $TBI $HQI "Artificial intelligence is already starting to take a "disproportionate" bite out of entry-level job opportunities in certain fields according to a paper from Stanford researchers published this week. Analyzing ADP"
X Link 2025-11-07T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"bear case for $morn $fds $mktw $TRI who am i missing The new Google Finance is shipping 🚀 - Deep Search so you can ask your most complex research q's - Prediction markets data from @Kalshi & @Polymarket so you can explore q's about future market events - And its first international expansion to India https://t.co/J8Ei788LXv https://t.co/H6b8V5VfRI The new Google Finance is shipping 🚀 - Deep Search so you can ask your most complex research q's - Prediction markets data from @Kalshi & @Polymarket so you can explore q's about future market events - And its first international expansion to"
X Link 2025-11-07T04:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$EXFY short working. Probably just too much competition. I hear from friends this is a great product but its a mono product company with low economics and LT will have a serious issue competing with more holistic solutions IMO. Buyout risk is here so hard to short in size and large cash balance but I think that created the opportunity on the other hand. I am short $EXFY. PT 1.15/sh 4% short interest non-ai stock with declining organic revs and 5-7%/yr dilution. 30% of mcap in cash though. Insiders have also been selling. Used mostly as a travel and expense application for very small"
X Link 2025-11-07T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ramp competes in many domains. Often a great source of short ideas is identifying fast growth startups and figuring out who's marke share they are winning. In my short thesis for $EXFY I factored this into my forecast for revenues and margins. It may be playing part in $BILL's malaise and host of other publicly traded SaaS. If Ramp is 2xing revenues why is $BILL's revenues expected to decline Is there some marketshare shift going on here Today Ramp raised another $300M at a $32B valuation. In the past year our revenue has doubled to over $1B growing 10x faster than the median public SaaS. We"
X Link 2025-11-17T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This has everything that $fds it $morn has and it won't be the only one. is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn"
X Link 2025-11-19T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Are lead gen informational websites like the ones run by $QNST $NRDS $CARS $TTGT $ZD $TBLA $TRIP $YELP etc etc the retail store apocalypse of tomorrow Web traffic continues to hemorrhage to one-click and within a year or two I think it's likely that we will be in the early stages of utilizing AI agents to organize our lives plan and purchase trips order basic home goods (or return them) advise us and execute large discretionary or non-discretionary purchases like cars or homes advise us on our taxes and likely fill them out help with business formation paperwork insurance claims etc etc. If"
X Link 2026-01-09T19:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"short case for $zip BREAKING 🚨: OpenAI is developing ChatGPT Jobs a new career-focused AI agent designed to help users with resume tips job search and career guidance. AI Job search will be a big market too 🤖 https://t.co/2QvFDqr6XM BREAKING 🚨: OpenAI is developing ChatGPT Jobs a new career-focused AI agent designed to help users with resume tips job search and career guidance. AI Job search will be a big market too 🤖 https://t.co/2QvFDqr6XM"
X Link 2026-01-10T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NWL Fair enough It's not clear to me whether underlying demand/pricing recovers for their core products but I get the long bet here. I think 2-3 years from now the stock will likely be flat or lower given the decline in their actual products. I think they could pull off some margin efficiencies but cannot keep that up forever. So it's a tough outlook and yes there could be a valuation re-rate but there's that big looming terminal value question that might keep it lower than people think. @Fierce__beast I suggest you read the Q3 earnings transcript and then read the transcript from the Morgan"
X Link 2026-01-14T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NWL looks like a mess -- look how many brands they have. They have [--] baby stroller brands. The baby segment is probably no more than 20% of sales. Even if that grows 10% a year it would only add 2% total sales growth look at their sales compared to related peers -- Sales declines are close to $ACCO and $JOUT but they have a way higher ev/ebtida multiple interestingly enough https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011520234834829629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011520234834829629"
X Link 2026-01-14T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$mpwr this one worked and i keep holding because i think there might be something going on with robots in the next 2-3 years here but also because it really does seem to dominate in their specific niche. What am I missing on $MPWR At 580/sh it seems to be pricing a pretty steep discount on the non-AI segment and the AI segment. The company has demonstrated an ability to grow 1.5-2x faster than the industry why exactly would all of this change just based on the edgewater What am I missing on $MPWR At 580/sh it seems to be pricing a pretty steep discount on the non-AI segment and the AI"
X Link 2026-01-15T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yea the $ADBE thing happened quickly because a lot of the users also hated it and though it was overpriced. I have no idea if that's the case with $ADSK or $BSY fwiw. The concern i have is that they used to have some big advantage by having the best and most integrated design tech. But i feel like this advantage may slowly erode as AI competitors strengthen. So what they are left with is just switching costs mostly but they also need to reduce price in this scenario otherwise customers will leave. Yea something to monitor for now https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011896383658148041"
X Link 2026-01-15T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"anyone else short $mgpi or $sam Spirits companies sitting on record inventory they can't move. Anyone know where I can buy some discounted whiskey barrels https://t.co/p55Iu8lemE Spirits companies sitting on record inventory they can't move. Anyone know where I can buy some discounted whiskey barrels https://t.co/p55Iu8lemE"
X Link 2026-01-21T04:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"dam rip SAT tutors $cour $nrdy $dcbo probably $duol Were launching full-length on demand practice exams for standardized tests in @GeminiApp starting with the SAT available now at no cost. Practice SATs are grounded in rigorously vetted content in partnership with @ThePrincetonRev and Gemini will provide immediate feedback https://t.co/GmivPuBp7B Were launching full-length on demand practice exams for standardized tests in @GeminiApp starting with the SAT available now at no cost. Practice SATs are grounded in rigorously vetted content in partnership with @ThePrincetonRev and Gemini will"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I am short a lot of SaaS but also am starting to increase SaaS long exposure. I am long some $WDAY and $FROG for now. Obviously very long $AMZN $GOOG and all the main semi's $TSM $NVDA $MU $ASML $NVMI $CAMT -- these seem like sure bets as enterprise adoption kicks the second leg of the AI scale buildout into hyperdrive for the next [--] months at least. Alarm bells are going off for beaten down SaaS though. Found one with accelerating rev growth super FCF positive down 50% over the last year and not totally sure if AI even disrupts them since they have some physical presence exposure."
X Link 2026-01-25T20:06Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements
"Losing SaaS vs winning SaaS A SaaS like $ASAN seems very bad and I am short. Will they ever scale if their rev growth continues decelerating (financials in screenshot) I am long $FROG. There seems to be a possible direct correlations between the amount of code and ultimately applications being generated and their cloud business. Look at the inflection if their growth since Claude [---] came out and now imagine what that growth might be over the next year as claude [---] adoption explodes. I am short a lot of SaaS but also am starting to increase SaaS long exposure. I am long some $WDAY and $FROG"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Wait is this a bull or bear case for $WDAY -- anthropic engineer hates it but still uses it Weird. Sounds like Anthropic didnt just use Claude Code to make their own $WDAY. Weird. Sounds like Anthropic didnt just use Claude Code to make their own $WDAY"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@UtilityPure How do you know -- have you ran an ERP integration before"
X Link 2026-01-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jk91185408 yes but does that mean for rev/margins for stocks like $crm $wday"
X Link 2026-01-26T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HCA I am long The bull case for hospitals: https://t.co/BI5dPF1Vvm Minute 19:00 Less busy work for nurses charting. 5m nurse shortage in the US. AI does charting and transcription for patient visits nurses spend 50% of their time charting. They can spend more time visiting patients and The bull case for hospitals: https://t.co/BI5dPF1Vvm Minute 19:00 Less busy work for nurses charting. 5m nurse shortage in the US. AI does charting and transcription for patient visits nurses spend 50% of their time charting. They can spend more time visiting patients and"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"like $MPWR is a stock i've been long and wrote about it when it was $550/sh. i thought "fair value was in the range of [---] upper bound. and i just don't think that in the majority of cases it's worth rotating out of it to buy a stock like $gddy that had an 11x fwd p/e and growing low double digit eps which would have 100% upside if it turns out to be roughly stable in the LT https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016197470389240060 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016197470389240060"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MPWR early testing of claude back in [----] My god how things have changed since.You cannot make up how dramatically the world has shifted. I thought fair value was somewhere around $750-$850 at that time in Nov [----]. I was new to the stock and forecasted what i thought was likely. Full saga of my thoughts scattered throughout my feed fun to look back on what went right and what went wrong I am long some $MPWR in my new hedge fund sleeve. $MPWR https://t.co/PTmNRRoVsk $MPWR https://t.co/PTmNRRoVsk"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$cars short saw the openclaw thing use this to buy a car for someone and negotiate prices with various dealers. lead gen for cars mmmm. scary. why would dealers pay for visibility if clawbot or some other ai agent negotiates a price for you direct also autonomous vehicles slowly gonna eat into volumes http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php http://cars.com https://hexorcism.com/HyundaiApp/inventory.php"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RagingVentures i'm short all but $wday am long"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Would have been a good one. I have non-ai disruption shorts but the ones that have done the best are all AI related. Disruption is a great short. Now am thinking $MSFT at such low levels even if Office goes to zero overtime but Azure survives and thrives is the valuation good Is this a good investment now @StockJabber I think the AI short could be an entire short portfolio. If you are able to get a little creative I think there are ideas everywhere @StockJabber I think the AI short could be an entire short portfolio. If you are able to get a little creative I think there are ideas everywhere"
X Link 2026-02-04T03:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"does anyone know anyone who uses and loves $PTON or $SNAP $SNAP not growing much in US That doesn't seem good because ARPU is higher in US. Same story $PINS. $COUR earnings tn Estimates look like its expected to grow a lot in [----] but how $EGHT results with declining incremental margins How is that gonna work out LT for them https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019471291581882658 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019471291581882658"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Anybody worried about long $CARS or $QNST $EVR $NRDS I am"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"woah. $msft How dylan repays satya for that datacenter tour 🥀 https://t.co/7rfZEEdzCy How dylan repays satya for that datacenter tour 🥀 https://t.co/7rfZEEdzCy"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"the bear case on hyperscalers: they are irrationally spending to take share and there is no current or expected realistically high enough ROI to justify the investment. ok so why not go into $tsm or $asml then it would seem irrational for those to sell-off too. The hyperscalers have all converged on spending 65% of gross profit on capex. [--] years ago the average was 33% and from 2017-2022 it was 27%. https://t.co/xKPlMvXlWZ The hyperscalers have all converged on spending 65% of gross profit on capex. [--] years ago the average was 33% and from 2017-2022 it was 27%. https://t.co/xKPlMvXlWZ"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"poor $FIG https://blog.janestreet.com/i-design-with-claude-code-more-than-figma-now-index/ https://blog.janestreet.com/i-design-with-claude-code-more-than-figma-now-index/"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What happens to investment banking fees and equity research value Do we short banks that have high exposure to this"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:40Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements
"I'm short some $ENR but is it actually just too cheap here It's very close to being too cheap i think I get around 2.6/sh of real eps. If that declines at 2-3% perhaps a fair value might be roughly at this price i would guess. And if its anything more than that the stock could go lower first. LT headwinds are lower cost substitutes and who cares about battery brands at all Also aren't most consumer batteries going integrated lithium-ion (rechargeable via USB-C) look at the organic growth (claude snapshot). The decline accelerated starting in FY1Q25. APS (Advanced Power Solutions) was acquired"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $COKE Just brainstorming some things you cannot currently prompt your way out of: -Eating -Toilet Paper -Drinking -Extracting Raw Materials -Turning Raw Materials into Goods -Aging -Lead times -Supply chains -Oil Just brainstorming some things you cannot currently prompt your way out of: -Eating -Toilet Paper -Drinking -Extracting Raw Materials -Turning Raw Materials into Goods -Aging -Lead times -Supply chains -Oil"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"short $OI though"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"who's paying $35k a year for screeners and financial analysis when there are options to get roughly 80-90% of everything you need with claude and TIKR for 10x less I've used factset and bloomberg and unfortunately i can tell you that the rate at which AI is improving these tools seem to me to be in serious trouble of losing a lot of relevance and thus value over time. it will likely just be a slow and gradual bleed but there is a non-zero growing probability this happens in like [--] years. i guess i'll likely continue being short $fds and $morn. there is an extension of this short thesis to"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"shocked that ai capex for [----] just got revised up by like 25% (about 120b) in a week and no meaningful move in Semis. xAI gets the capital base of Spacex to raise even more capital. Anthropic threatening openai and its VCs scrambling to raise even more capital asap. sorry to bring it up but it seems simply too divergent to not bring it up. Has there ever been a stronger and perhaps more sustainable undercurrent than what we are seeing here Just NT speaking not medium or LT even. like next [--] months time frame. my pedantic and annoyingly recurring thoughts on how this plays out: 1) market is"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"for sure -- but what didn't get right basically the entire universe of saas stocks that might be impacted. all i cared was for it to rank the largest to smallest and give a list of saas seat based stocks. i think the finer details of less hallucinations will be solved over time. but i agree and for financial analysis i use something like TIKR supplementing the work i do with claude https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781082170691614 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781082170691614"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AcaciaCap @pekwat i've seen someone bearish on even pitchbook"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"minute [--] bear case $crm new AI companies that are claiming to replace your salesforce and replacing 10-20-30 sales people. CRM is still great but what happens to seat based pricing if this AI stuff succeeds https://m.youtube.com/watchv=F9NekS6PCM0 https://m.youtube.com/watchv=F9NekS6PCM0"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RagingVentures @firstadopter but why ok in theory if they LLM could accurately compile data from SEC filings and press releases isn't that like 90% of what buyside/sellside guys use factset for"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@k3ithmccullough just type $fds in my search profile"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Blinklebloop $adbe $fig $sstk etc etc https://x.com/fierce__beast/status/1797641284288688523s=46 What duopoly/monopoly type of industries or businesses are being disrupted by AI today I have a few but one interesting name that comes to mind is $adbe -- pricing power and retention likely to decline vs historical rates due to alternatives like Midjourney. https://x.com/fierce__beast/status/1797641284288688523s=46 What duopoly/monopoly type of industries or businesses are being disrupted by AI today I have a few but one interesting name that comes to mind is $adbe -- pricing power and retention"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"if saas stocks recover eventually and survive won't they just have more money to spend on AI products"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@its_moonberries if company survives stock survives"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"short $alrm $rezi etc i wonder I was inspired by this so I wanted to see if Claude Code can get into my Lutron home automation system. - it found my Lutron controllers on the local wifi network - checked for open ports connected got some metadata and identified the devices and their firmware - searched the I was inspired by this so I wanted to see if Claude Code can get into my Lutron home automation system. - it found my Lutron controllers on the local wifi network - checked for open ports connected got some metadata and identified the devices and their firmware - searched the"
X Link 2025-12-28T00:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I am short some $NWL with a pt [---]. This is a lower conviction idea since there is no clear explanation as to why the business is struggling. Maybe there is some disruption of Schools buying less stuff because everyone is doing a lot more digital stuff: Writing (Sharpie/Paper Mate) -- maybe private label erosion or shift to digital Outdoor (Coleman) -- specialty DTC brands i guess Baby (Graco) -- different competitive set entirely Home fragrance (Yankee Candle) -- candle commoditization Here are the facts: [--]. [--] consecutive quarters of high single digit rev growth and EPS declines 2."
X Link 2026-01-14T07:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ACCO Seems like underneath its relative stability is a huge fundamental problem. The reason it's stable I think is because of cost savings initiatives that now seem behind it. So now I'm not sure how much longer that lasts and then what happens I think there is a small chance that the company rapidly deteriorates from here or more likely that it continues to gradually worsen. It's not clear to me that it's a short. by my estimate it trades somewhere in the range of 2-4x forward real earnings. That is pricing a swift end which I think there is actually only a small chance of happening. On the"
X Link 2026-01-14T08:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CTRI Thesis is they don't have much exposure to capacity additions but they should LT benefit from more maintenance work. They are trying to get more involved in the same stuff $PWR does but it's a long shot let's be honest. Seemed like one of the few power beneficiaries still trading for a decent valuation on a likely strong multi-year tailwind for the stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995967632755786169 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995967632755786169"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@murrayst_res very cool example. And somehow that doesn't really feel surprising. $fvrr not sure. still need a human in the loop but inidivudal tasks are getting automated. just lets human do a lot more higher level stuff now. just not sure about that one"
X Link 2026-01-15T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GDRX vs TrumpRX huh"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What happens to the customer base of $FDS if they have more options What happens to active investing if AI's make things even more competitive and difficult to find edges in the market I mean Opus [---] isn't terrible but it is still using unreliable web data pulled from Yahoo Finance and random websites. There is no way this replaces FactSet (FDS stock down 7% on dumb media"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:33Z [----] followers, 49.6K engagements
"How can $NVDA $AMZN $TSM and $GOOG all be down because of increased capex Hmm. Let's see. [--]. Peak cycle -- there will be no more capital for [----] or [----] capex to keep growing. Not impossible at all. What if there are no more SaaS stocks to keep spending on cloud services What if all the AI native startups fail My counter -- look at freaking code applications alone. 2% github commits from claude code on a 2T tam for software (thanks @SemiAnalysis_ ). What happens to that [--] years from now 20% -- 50% [--]. $NVDA down because more marketshare to $AMZN and TPU So then $AMZN takes massive share in"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"disgusting what opus [---] can do and what it means for $FDS and $MORN and other analytics providers. I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What happens to the customer base of $FDS if they I am short $FDS and $MORN the issue @firstadopter is that these companies have historically earned very high margins and little incremental capital. They are pulling data from SEC filings. Can a LLM not do that eventually What"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:45Z [----] followers, 49.4K engagements
"Efficiency era for banks incoming but bodes poorly for $rhi $kfrc $cbx and consultants $acn $hurn probably many others immmissing GOLDMAN SACHS $GS IS TAPPING ANTHROPICS AI MODEL TO AUTOMATE ACCOUNTING COMPLIANCE ROLES Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive high-volume back-office work - CNBC https://t.co/BcVwYUj301 GOLDMAN SACHS $GS IS TAPPING ANTHROPICS AI MODEL TO AUTOMATE ACCOUNTING COMPLIANCE ROLES Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time-intensive high-volume"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"i first wrote about $ANGI here A couple more short ideas: $ANGI has been a bad company for a while losing to Google local service ads thumbtack taskrabbit houzz amazon home services and others. i feel like this gets worse with AI. but if not they have tried different things and fundamentals keep getting A couple more short ideas: $ANGI has been a bad company for a while losing to Google local service ads thumbtack taskrabbit houzz amazon home services and others. i feel like this gets worse with AI. but if not they have tried different things and fundamentals keep getting"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"interesting bull thesis for payments tech. I am short $MQ $PAR and $LSPD though Our rival @brexHQ just sold to @CapitalOne for $5.1B. I think this is the start of fintech's $100B decade. Every major bank is staring at the same problem. Their infrastructure is [--] years behind. They know it. Their boards know it. Their investors know it. They also know they Our rival @brexHQ just sold to @CapitalOne for $5.1B. I think this is the start of fintech's $100B decade. Every major bank is staring at the same problem. Their infrastructure is [--] years behind. They know it. Their boards know it. Their"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ANGI 1q26 ebitda guide down 40% from prior year and maybe 50% or so below consensus of around 30m EBITDA and they are guiding to 15-17m EBITDA Ok. Why All KPI's measures are up. If you wanna spend more you're gonna get more growth. You go crazy spending you're gonna get really good growth. I dunno what $ANGI has in mind but it's not even a current problem angi has just faced tons of competitors for a while. It's just not going anywhere and getting marginally wrose over time as competitors and alternatives take share. Let's see how it does tomorrow For $ANGI not even cost cuts seems to help"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"have the switching costs for web hosting stocks just been mostly obliterated $gddy $wix -- who am else am i missing here Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary collapse in realtime 😵. https://t.co/Z7gpyizSDO Im still processing this shock 😮 Opus [---] just migrated my entire website [---] pages of content across multiple categories from WordPress to Jekyll in one shot. this felt like watching an industry category boundary"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes this link was what I was referring to. Wix i think pays ChatGPT for leads this way. I don't think you can actually build anything on chatgpt yet it directs you to the Wix Website. On $WIX i just saw a 2B startup website builder is raising money and doing well. https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/28/no-code-website-builder-framer-reaches-2b-valuation/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/28/no-code-website-builder-framer-reaches-2b-valuation/"
X Link 2025-08-29T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Heading back to NYC Spent last [--] weeks in rio. pretty insane lifestyle some people have. i met an investor he lives [--] block from the beach [--] block from his office works out everyday and takes a swim multiple times a week. Anyone want to meet to talk saas stocks in NYC maybe we can get a group of people together"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"do you not think $goog can do this and better too $TMUS $DUOL T-Mobile introduced real-time AI translation for phone calls across 50+ languages built directly into its wireless network 🗣💬 Shares of Duolingo fell about 5% in premarket trading. How big is the moat of Duolingo 🤔 https://t.co/hmi7rshJGu $TMUS $DUOL T-Mobile introduced real-time AI translation for phone calls across 50+ languages built directly into its wireless network 🗣💬 Shares of Duolingo fell about 5% in premarket trading. How big is the moat of Duolingo 🤔 https://t.co/hmi7rshJGu"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"bull case for $real @Fierce__beast $REAL is not disruptable (prob $AMZN too not sure on $SHOP) because literally their entire edge is the physical verification/distribution center. Can never be replicated by AI. @Fierce__beast $REAL is not disruptable (prob $AMZN too not sure on $SHOP) because literally their entire edge is the physical verification/distribution center. Can never be replicated by AI"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I continue to be short these stock more than [--] years later and reinitiated these positions when I started a L/S account this June. $EGHT $FIVN $TTEC. I see increased pressure from new emerging AI customer service startups that do not seem to be reflected in estimates. I am short $EGHT $FIVN and $TTEC and laid out the bear thesis on CcaaS almost [--] years ago. https://t.co/yZZktp4ptQ I am short $EGHT $FIVN and $TTEC and laid out the bear thesis on CcaaS almost [--] years ago. https://t.co/yZZktp4ptQ"
X Link 2025-11-07T16:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is the kinda stuff that makes me want to feel bearish for $FDS $MKTW $TRI $MORN etc We are hiring a software engineer to help us scale Perplexity Finance to the next order of magnitude. Our team is just a few people and we typically launch a substantial new feature every few days. Our goal is to make premium data and financial analysis available to everyone. We are hiring a software engineer to help us scale Perplexity Finance to the next order of magnitude. Our team is just a few people and we typically launch a substantial new feature every few days. Our goal is to make premium data"
X Link 2025-11-12T08:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@orrdavid @finphysnerd I am short this and it's parent $EPC Both companies feel like old relics of a time when consistency of goods wasn't guaranteed and brand mattered. Both stocks seems like tier [--] or [--] products in mature industries with lots of alternatives available"
X Link 2025-12-06T09:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How about shorting just boring declining businesses like $THRY $EPC $TEAD $IT You don't need to worry as much about meme upside high short interest or fantastic stories going the wrong way for you It seems like a lot of people focus on clearly overvalued or fraudulent shorts -- but then you actually get deminishing risk/rewards in those since they are too obvious and well known. ANother wayt o mitigate this blowup risk is just sizing them at much lower levels or even avoiding story stocks outright. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997436048587313382"
X Link 2025-12-06T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PSO 4Q results in line but a NJ school contract loss and lack of guidance for [----] i guess caused the sell-off. The report official 4Q end of February $SCHL bad short over the last [--] months $WLY and $PSO good short. https://t.co/ZDlKqoDl6H Wonder what this means for $PSO or $SCHL or $WLY or other education based services. A short ramble: The short thesis would something like AI reduces education content pricing and so it lowers the competitive advantage of incumbents. One interesting https://t.co/ZDlKqoDl6H Wonder what this means for $PSO or $SCHL or $WLY or other education based services. A"
X Link 2026-01-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"10-20% in advanced packaging should good enough for $camt and $nvmi here. the magnitude of the numbers are massive in comparison to their businesses Capex to grow to $52-$56B from $40.9B in [----]. 70-80% on advanced node 10% speciallity 10-20% advanced packaging testing mask making and others. Depreciation to increase high teens y/y in '26. Capex to grow to $52-$56B from $40.9B in [----]. 70-80% on advanced node 10% speciallity 10-20% advanced packaging testing mask making and others. Depreciation to increase high teens y/y in '26"
X Link 2026-01-15T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yea dude why not just go long $REAL then Jk. Yea -- your views make sense but they might be a tiny bit too LT. In the next [--] years will AI agents be this good and what happens to how SaaS evolves before this eventuality What if the incumbents evolve a lot before then. Let's say WDAY creates an AI solution that replaces most of your HR/operations team What if CRM creates an AI solution that replaces most of your Sales/operations teams What if using scaled inference that $CRM or $WDAY can buy is better than attempting to do it in house https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015510967107600748"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"at the end of [----] semicaps $TSM $ASML $CAMT $NVMI etc were trading below their valuation multiples at the release of ChatGPT -- that seemed very incongruent to me @DeepValueStonks How about semiconductors They are the beneficiaries enablers if you will of LLM commoditization. @DeepValueStonks How about semiconductors They are the beneficiaries enablers if you will of LLM commoditization"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"this seems like the most optimal thing to do right now. maybe not for the LT but if you're competitors are doing this it almost forces your hand. Azure still grew 39% last quarter. inference compute seems likely to explode for the next few quarters at least. Though i would personally wager a much longer runway than that. Prediction: workplaces that let their engineers let it rip on tokens are going to get the best context engineers and being the best at that will matter a lot more than other skills the next [--] years Prediction: workplaces that let their engineers let it rip on tokens are"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@valuations_ $tsla"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"short thesis on $asgn from July i am short a little $ASGN. Organically the business has been declining in the high single digits for the last several quarters. If not for acquisitions over the last [--] years I estimate the business would be in decline. For example they spent 1.35b on acquisitions over the i am short a little $ASGN. Organically the business has been declining in the high single digits for the last several quarters. If not for acquisitions over the last [--] years I estimate the business would be in decline. For example they spent 1.35b on acquisitions over the"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ANGI Looks worse than i thought $Angi i am holding my short . My PT is 14/sh but this does dent my thesis a bit. Short interest was too high going into this which I misjudged at 12.5% but i think it'll be washed out a little after today. i think no reason to cover on this jump right now even though it was kind https://t.co/9DbKlM24qQ $Angi i am holding my short . My PT is 14/sh but this does dent my thesis a bit. Short interest was too high going into this which I misjudged at 12.5% but i think it'll be washed out a little after today. i think no reason to cover on this jump right now even"
X Link 2025-11-04T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting thread on $FIVN I don't know what the takeaway is yet but a few things i know for sure are: 1) I have made many mistakes 2) a lot of those mistakes came from undervaluing the magnitude that potential changes in the competitive dynamics of an industry may have on an individual company @jonrice80 this was just one example of lower pricing. I don't know if others are doing it but AI lowers the competitive advantages these companies have accrued. Unless they have a major competitive moat i think pricing pressure will be a big issue not just from competitors but because @jonrice80 this"
X Link 2025-11-20T07:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"He gives a concrete example of how claude replaced a lot of his maintenance work of answering questions from new hires. This is bear case for stocks like $NICE $TASK $CNXC etc. Look what he wrote in [----]. 100x larger compute projects expected. @andy_l_jones is a thoughtful forecaster https://t.co/uaC2DGxe3f Look what he wrote in [----]. 100x larger compute projects expected. @andy_l_jones is a thoughtful forecaster https://t.co/uaC2DGxe3f"
X Link 2025-12-09T05:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@glbeaty Yea that seems right. I think the $ANGI short will mostly only work due encroaching competition and higher CAC. The DIY vs hiring thing is a little speculative and if happens only would be at the margins at least NT"
X Link 2026-01-13T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"what's the bull case for $yelp Think of review summaries as your personal TLDR. Just open a spot on Google Maps scroll to the reviews and Gemini gives you a quick overview of what people are saying. https://t.co/TrbiAxDqNH Think of review summaries as your personal TLDR. Just open a spot on Google Maps scroll to the reviews and Gemini gives you a quick overview of what people are saying. https://t.co/TrbiAxDqNH"
X Link 2025-09-20T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tough setup for stocks reliant on web traffic. I feel like we've been seeing this play out at $IAC and all the lawsuits but can't short that because of the MGM stake. I am short $TTGT $ZD $NRDS $QNST $TBLA $TEAD $SEMR etc Listed some other potential ones in image"
X Link 2025-09-21T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The bull case for $YELP $YELP now trading at a 9% forward earnings yield with a 20% net cash balance. You've simply never seen anything like this before. Hiding out in plain sight. It's not without risk but wow. If this thing moons it will be so obvious in hindsight. I'm getting long af. Over 3% now. $YELP now trading at a 9% forward earnings yield with a 20% net cash balance. You've simply never seen anything like this before. Hiding out in plain sight. It's not without risk but wow. If this thing moons it will be so obvious in hindsight. I'm getting long af. Over 3% now"
X Link 2026-01-17T23:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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