#  @DDBlakeFischer Blake Blake posts on X about $amzn, $goog, business, $msft the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +425% - [--] Month [-------] +89% - [--] Months [-------] +17,189% - [--] Year [-------] +17,471% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -29% - [--] Months [---] +1,910% - [--] Year [---] +3,819% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +3.80% - [--] Month [-----] +5.50% - [--] Months [-----] +34% - [--] Year [-----] +33% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 58.33% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 40.63% [finance](/list/finance) 23.96% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 12.5% [countries](/list/countries) 5.21% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 2.6% [currencies](/list/currencies) 2.6% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 0.52% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 0.52% [nfl](/list/nfl) 0.52% **Social topic influence** [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) #371, [$goog](/topic/$goog) 8.85%, [business](/topic/business) #2929, [$msft](/topic/$msft) #623, [$nvda](/topic/$nvda) 7.29%, [$spgi](/topic/$spgi) #10, [microsoft](/topic/microsoft) #2913, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.73%, [$googl](/topic/$googl) 5.73%, [meta](/topic/meta) 5.21% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@rihardjarc](/creator/undefined) [@dimitrynakhla](/creator/undefined) [@gordocap18](/creator/undefined) [@longequity](/creator/undefined) [@saynototrading](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@ernestwongbwm](/creator/undefined) [@k3ithmccullough](/creator/undefined) [@ddblakefischer](/creator/undefined) [@koyfincharts](/creator/undefined) [@pgorgey51003](/creator/undefined) [@someone2264](/creator/undefined) [@returnoncap](/creator/undefined) [@leonelissen](/creator/undefined) [@buccocapital](/creator/undefined) [@thexcapitalist](/creator/undefined) [@hermesinvest1](/creator/undefined) [@porterstansb](/creator/undefined) [@johnhuber72](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)](/topic/$tyl) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV)](/topic/$veev) [Marsh (MRSH)](/topic/$mrsh) [monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)](/topic/$mndy) [Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)](/topic/$ajg) [Neurobro (BRO)](/topic/$bro) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH)](/topic/$manh) [Roper Technologies Inc (ROP)](/topic/$rop) [Lowes Companies Inc (LOW)](/topic/$low) [Accenture (ACN)](/topic/accenture) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team) [Bedrock (BR)](/topic/$br) [Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW)](/topic/$wtw) [Aon PLC (AON)](/topic/$aon) [Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)](/topic/$cp) [Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI)](/topic/$smci) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP)](/topic/ameriprise) [AMP Token (AMP)](/topic/$amp) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Msci Inc (MSCI)](/topic/$msci) [ServiceNow Inc (NOW)](/topic/servicenow) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)](/topic/$morn) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc (RYAN)](/topic/$ryan) [Dow Inc (DOW)](/topic/$dow) [UNIPOLY (UNP)](/topic/$unp) [Carlisle Companies, Inc. (CSL)](/topic/$csl) [Owens Corning (OC)](/topic/$oc) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "The market intelligence segment being zeroed by the market still produces 32% margins and nearly a $5B revenue run rate. There is current and terminal value to the data even if it is relegated to a plug-in as part of the worst case scenario they shit the bed on transforming their UX. The balance sheet is effectively a f ton of goodwill and intangibles from the IHS Markit combination. The intangibles are in effect deferred tax assets as they get to expense $1B annually reducing tax by $200M for the next [--] years. This also has the effect of understating earnings power by the $1B paper expense." [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021332433703141733) 2026-02-10T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021696622263247239) 2026-02-11T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I also built smaller positions in two BDCs as they sold below NAV earlier in the month. $BXSL and $ARCC are two of the better ones with low rates of non-accruals and payment-in-kind (PIK) which investors should watch out for. BXSL and Ares each cover their high dividends with net income. BXSL is a new fund but its book is one of the most defensive among all BDCs. Nearly the entire portfolio is first lien senior secured. Ares is one the biggest BDCs with a long track record of success. Credit distress and/or liquidity concerns cause it to sell off every so often and sometimes below book value" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1985851020346605808) 2025-11-04T23:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1986892967060377650) 2025-11-07T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ServoWealth Great post. There are plenty of assets to rotate or diversify toward. An equal weight portfolio of S&P large value small value and REITs has actually outperformed since [----] $SPY $VBR $XLRE $VFLO $SCHD @KobeissiLetter Good time to diversify https://t.co/XrUNoT4zPC @KobeissiLetter Good time to diversify https://t.co/XrUNoT4zPC" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2001716739210657832) 2025-12-18T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@long_equity $LOW $MRSH & $EXR limit orders on $MA $MSCI & $FTNT" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2014269796762919350) 2026-01-22T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Charter is down another 24% since this post $CHTR In the words of Ben graham: Overpaying for a great company is not the chief risk of investing. The chief risk of investing is in buying a poor quality business that merely looks cheap based on a few years of favorable earnings. @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2016805357591679403) 2026-01-29T09:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SayNoToTrading I figured Id find a post of yours if I searched this ticker. Great company. On the watchlist" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017127770456031635) 2026-01-30T06:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter Intel is the most interesting one here outsourcing everything to Indian consultants at Accenture $ACN Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵 https://t.co/Ta1xg48mum Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵 https://t.co/Ta1xg48mum" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017327183740739693) 2026-01-30T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How does this compare to the market I know marsh reported solid org growth but curious how much of Browns slowdown is explained by industry volume or not Another thought: is there anything to be said regarding underwriting discipline I.e. if the market is underpricing pulling back may be strategic. Otherwise the divergence in org growth does look clear. Hope to hear your thoughts. Thanks for posting https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017352130961805458 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017352130961805458" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017352130961805458) 2026-01-30T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DimitryNakhla Autodesk is still 49x forward 36x [--] 27x [--] Similar for most of the list. Look at the financial statements theyre more expensive than they look and this is in part why they continue selling off" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017675232715411803) 2026-01-31T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Breadcrumb_Cap Have you looked at the tool Anthropic released today PBC Im having trouble imaging how its impacts their exchange data or listing revenues but I havent looked at it myself" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2018782379666722905) 2026-02-03T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yeah same here. I feel a bit out of my circle of competence predicting their place in the enterprise ecosystem in a world of AI agents but Salesforce is one of the first software Id buy here. Actually a small limit order hit at $200 so I guess I do own a small position now. The only name Ive really bought is Microsoft. Cyber seems like an obvious beneficiary but their valuations are silly outside of fortinet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019102189034303952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019102189034303952" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019102189034303952) 2026-02-04T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks for posting. Adobe hasnt grown at 25% since [----]. Revenue growth is projected 7-9% next few years and margins are under pressure so the only way to double digit eps growth is buying back shares. They can probably hit 12% eps growth by doing so but the upside is a lot less than a 25% grower like Samsara or Snowflake. Whether or not they retain the prof workflow is the big question and there seem to be plenty of pros who land on both sides. Ive talked to some who think its irreplaceable and other like a vp at a marketing agency whose teams are intentionally moving off Adobe" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019118770955121114) 2026-02-04T18:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "At this point the trade desk could work if they execute but why anyone owned this at 2-3x the multiples of meta and google was just dumb If you didnt realize how expensive it was you need to stop quoting adjusted multiples on all your favorite websites and analyze financial statements yourself. $TTD $META $GOOG Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: 22" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019140890368045177) 2026-02-04T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dee_bosa Great clip $MNDY equity is worth $5B why exactly For bug fixes that can be outsourced to Mexico or India CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019155822266445838) 2026-02-04T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@wise_reformed @LOGOinvestor Valid point ServiceNow is hardly running $2B in operating profit so a market cap in excess of $100B is far from cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019244034313843143) 2026-02-05T02:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@fejau_inc As a shareholder kind of awesome that they are investing into 30-50% margins instead of buying back stock at a 3-5% earnings yield" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019244260533616737) 2026-02-05T02:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@firstadopter @jukan05 So why is LSEG down so much" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019277111484379595) 2026-02-05T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. P/OCF should compress as capital intensity increases. Dep/capex becomes a greater % of revenue and profits [--]. Microsoft is underpriced here barring disruptions O365 or Azure supply constrains somehow becoming unutilized capacity as the market seems to fear by punishing capex for some reason https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019561141484326993 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019561141484326993" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019561141484326993) 2026-02-05T23:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Insert $PLTR $TSLA $NOW $CSU $TYL $TTD $WMT $COST etc Well said This is why you dont pay 130x earnings & 22x sales at peak valuations even for a business as high-quality as $AXON. As Warren Buffett said: A too-high purchase price can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments. $AXON -54% from highs. https://t.co/kHos08c3iV This is why you dont pay 130x earnings & 22x sales at peak valuations even for a business as high-quality as $AXON. As Warren Buffett said: A too-high purchase price can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019564606541447569) 2026-02-06T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Jack_Raines Jesus Christ" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019643054110699591) 2026-02-06T05:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better. Nailed it 🎯 @michaelbatnick on sorting through the SaaSacre and Claude-induced $IGV nuke @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on this one and might make a buy here. The Capex concerns are silly to me. Microsoft matches them to contracted revenue and says no to a lot of requests for azure capacity. They have a $600B backlog and market @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019893623819829331) 2026-02-06T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TechFundies Michael Batnick nailed it with this quote on his podcast this week: Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019932864129966134) 2026-02-07T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@legithillbilly @Neorio12321 @bankingslut @ErnestWongBWM No thats a straw man. Walmart Costco and dollar general in particular have contributed to far more of the consolidation in grocery and they did it with executing a better business model and made operating profits that funded expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020187224139247946) 2026-02-07T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "SBC is no better or worse than any other expense. The beef with SBC is that it pollutes FCF and the PE ratios that get cited. $NOW is around 40x forward if they earn $2.5B in real profits as modeled That being said this chart is relevant because it indicates operating leverage as far as the cost of SBC relative to revenue/eps. Thanks for posting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020283398091362711) 2026-02-07T23:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DurableCreators The rails for sure. Berkshire. And actually Amazon. Physical retail +the more that AI and compute proliferates is more demand for AWS" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020310407311941903) 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "AWS margin is 35%. Investing as much as possible into that leads to clear ROIs with contracted capacity which is backlogged. Theyll have mega FCF whenever they decide to but holding back from adding capacity to AWS would be a missed opportunity. AWS is not the premiere CSP for AI training (GOOGLE is) but that also means theyre less prone to a training trough. AWS workloads are mostly traditional cloud migrations and the runway for that remains massive. Then we have inference of course which will be many times larger than training. TLDR the capex concerns are unfounded. Runways for" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020320888336576865) 2026-02-08T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ZeeContrarian1 Sounds like a setup where Salesforce will beat raise and sell off 7%" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020409544787321148) 2026-02-08T08:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes I do all valuations by hand and will probably continue to do so until a tool can reliably calc owners earnings without being misled by SBC amortization noncash gains/losses or the working capital volatility in OCF. Which by the way 90% or more of the valuations and charts we see cited on here have at least one of those issues. Your after tax point to adjustments is prescient. I do it in my head at this point but its roughly equivalent to the formula you cited. I generally take GAAP net income plus or minus 80% of the adjustments if the tax benefit was temporary (e.g. gains or losses" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020599194327630018) 2026-02-08T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Have considered this same idea for Gartner acting as a source of validity in an ocean of AI tools. I think S&P and Moodys stand much greater chances of remaining cemented in their underwriting of securities. More efficient software may even boost their margins. Are there any risks we may be overlooking The chart on Verisk by the way is brutal. I havent spent much time on this one but find it interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020600423736860885) 2026-02-08T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@samsolid57 The bear case is basically that they should be buying back stock at a 3% return rather than investing into AWS at a 35% margin. Bizarre" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020614742445101494) 2026-02-08T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Where are you getting $493M And $57.3M Thats not whats on their income statement. They dont earn $400M let alone $550M. At that valuation I can get S&P Broadridge or the exchanges themself for the same valuation and much wider moats Its possible they maintain their subscription business but there has to be serious doubt there. Personally I only own companies whose staying power I have certainty on so Morningstar is not unique in not qualifying. I use a capital M for millions B for billions Factset situation feels similar to Morningstar research. Tons of nuance there for sure." [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020644509021851681) 2026-02-08T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Got it. I wouldnt trust managements telling me what earnings should be unless these are actually one-time in nature and I can justify them. They probably add back SBC as well. Morningstar has never actually made $500M in after-tax profits. Using the financial statements and only adjusting for non-cash charges $Morn is 20x and thats on par with $SPGI (22.5x forward) and Broadridge (20x forward). I use the Morningstar reports as part of my research on any business. I also like some of the historical charts. In addition to absolute valuation I like to see relative valuation (to earnings or sales" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020656512511725741) 2026-02-09T00:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@k3ithmccullough Yes those are forward for $SPGI & $BR. Im more familiar with those two than Morningstar so easier to do. Probably also not fair to add 50% to earning power for one and not the other two. We can conclude here as its not intended to be argumentative" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020661706536669427) 2026-02-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@k3ithmccullough Lol yes thats a dog Ive thankfully avoided. Too much debt. Would you touch any of their peers" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020744699871678644) 2026-02-09T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "And why does that matter at all Most high ROIC businesses have extremely limited opportunities for reinvestment. AWS runs at a 35% margin. GCP is now earning 50% margins on incremental revenue. Backlogs are now approaching 2% of gdp everyone is supply constrained compute demand is clearly proliferating. And what We want Amazon to buy back stock at a 3% yield rather than invest into a 35% ROI at AWS Bizarre. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020908722185437524) 2026-02-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Meta was building a new world from scratch. AWS is expanding a utility that already powers a significant portion of the global GDP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that represent hundreds of billions in recurring non-discretionary enterprise spending. This is foundational infrastructure that literally keeps the lights on. 100% mission critical and durable in any scenario of outcomes for AI and model developments. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020954477428412730) 2026-02-09T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ok if we assume all of the startup/SMB mix in the backlog is both SaaS and at risk thats 15% of the backlog rounds up to $40M That leaves $200M of backlog remaining and power constraints (4 GW added) that have capped AWS new revenue to $21B YoY. If some SaaS trash fails its just next man up. Minor compression to the backlog (or marginally slower growth to it which is much more likely) is very different than collapsing ROI. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020961454837670051) 2026-02-09T20:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DimitryNakhla Thank you. The this is why you dont pay 100x earnings is great for this platform 🤝" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020968091099025422) 2026-02-09T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Love the quote. Predicting the future is inherently speculative. And even if youre right a crap ton of success and positive developments are already priced into Palantir and Tesla Nvidia was a crazy one because it was actually trading around 20x forward back at $40 in [----]. 400% return that didnt require paying 100x or more. And Id argue its because buyers werent paying 100x. That would have pulled forward much of the earnings growth as is the case with most valuations at that elevation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020972999613288611) 2026-02-09T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Mindset4Money_X Is there a chart for price to EBIT or price to operating income" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020973796900077989) 2026-02-09T21:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "GPT released a chatbot app that delivers some insurance quotes Hard to see the direct impact to complex transaction advisory but traders may not want to wait and see and/or are discounting proliferation of better tools down the road I think brown & AJG have the most exposure to retail Insurance brokers are getting crushed today after OpenAI approved the first insurer-built AI app on ChatGPT - $WTW $AJG $RYAN $BRO $AON From GS The immediate feedback still is a degree on confusion & the top question is 'Why would this primarily impact the brokers (who https://t.co/P5xDehbPMN Insurance brokers" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020984160584860089) 2026-02-09T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If this is the bear case for AWS I should probably increase my position. Even if we assume (wrongly) that all of the backlog attributable to startups/SMB (15%) is both SaaS and at risk AWS is left with a backlog in excess of $200B Dont confuse AWS with $ORCL OCS the $META verse RL or even $GOOG GCP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that support trillions in revenues that have little to nothing to do with AI. Ever experienced an AWS outage Literally nothing works without it. This is critical and foundational infrastructure. Core" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021010591310282770) 2026-02-09T23:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter Leave it alone. $SPGI is the opportunity. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021335984068272321) 2026-02-10T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What is going on in the land of insurance brokers today No earnings no news brutal drawdowns: $WTW -13% $AJG -9.5% $AON -8.5% $MRSH -7% $BRO -7%" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020957549605027965) 2026-02-09T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Of course That aligns with my review as well. Brown & Brown and AJG both have a material presence in retail lines. Im also concerned by their unimpressive ROIIC. I got around 6% for each of them using [----] as a base. Marsh and Aon score much higher here (high teens to 20%) and sounds like their business models are more sophisticated. $AJG and $BRO go after volume and rely on local relationships between brokers and customers. $Aon $MRSH handle global systemic and catastrophic risks that are more complex and require analytics/consulting a local broker cant provide. I also wonder if Brown &" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021269971805024528) 2026-02-10T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I agree. Am framing the valuation like this The credit ratings and indices divisions alone will approach $4.75B in operating profit next year ( $4B net). This is your $MSCI $MCO equivalent that rightfully deserves 30x earnings. Thats where the market cap is today at $120B. And for kicks you get $2B in profits from Market Intel Energy and Mobility. Another way to frame it: If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [--] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [--] + (1/3) = [--] For 32%-45% margin businesses growing mid to high" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021649167865852348) 2026-02-11T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@_SeanDavid I dont disagree. Good thinking. Salesforce is also very profitable. Wonder what this looks like for a non profitable SaaS. Will check when I get back" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022161929595441595) 2026-02-13T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Curiousjorge65 Easy path to $100B and then $200B. Somewhere around there the market will put 30x on the whole thing" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022166913636532629) 2026-02-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Broadridge $BR is another financial services monopoly whose GAAP earnings understate their earnings power. Adjusting for depreciation and amortization that regularly overstate the cash needs of the business I get to at least $1.3B in TTM earnings. The business now trades at just 16x trailing earnings. The [---] WMA has been pierced for just the third time in a decade. Broadridges business is built on two pillars: Proxy Voting: $BR facilitates shareholder voting with a 99% market share of the bank and broker-dealer segment. Large regulatory barriers to entry. Trade Settlement: Processes over $10" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020683525440041035) 2026-02-09T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DimitryNakhla Which is your favorite Dimitry @long_equity what about you" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021336489213448342) 2026-02-10T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And even if theyre not guilty theyre coming back to reality. $TYL is a good example. Why in the world did this trade up to well over 100x earnings $VEEV is another. Not very familiar but no way it deserved 60x a year ago or 100x in [----]. Or $NOW at 100x last year. Cybersecurity is a group still trading up there. Obviously good companies and strong tailwind so it feels faux pas to say but those multiples leave a lot of room downward whenever the story changes $CRWD $PANW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021703501500588450) 2026-02-11T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I like Morningstar but how do you justify $650 for $TYL 58x for 9% growth. And thats after adjusting for SBC $Morn price target will probably follow the stock price lower as usual. This is why you cant outsource valuation. @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021704708612927687) 2026-02-11T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KoyfinCharts Ameriprise has repurchased over half its outstanding share count over the same period 👀 Its also the best performing in the S&P financial sector since it was spun out in [----] $AMP Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2001385988413886793) 2025-12-17T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So yes on the balance sheet strength But no on the multiples. The lowest multiple for any level of quality is $STZ at 12/13x. I wouldnt argue with a bid there. But $DEO and $BFB are each in the high teens. For low/no growth. Not worth mentioning commodities like $TAP. Would much rather own $ABEV where growth is still strong if I had to. The GLP1 and secular headwinds are real so it becomes tough to justify paying up for low/no growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2013395598607819159) 2026-01-19T23:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ErnestWongBWM I would think its hitting convenience stores Walgreens CVS 7/11 dollar tree and even dollar general in the areas Amazon offers it. $WBA $CVS $DLTR $DG $AMZN" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020029844051096005) 2026-02-07T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SayNoToTrading Not convinced either way myself but I think Id worry more about verisk than the exchanges. Insurers could cut verisk out one day but I dont think that options exists with ICE CME or LSEG. Do you see it differently" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020174978214424923) 2026-02-07T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@firstadopter Hard not to like S&P Global here @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3 @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020343576849477884) 2026-02-08T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@undrvalue I hired a cybersecurity business owner to build something for me. I asked what products hes a fan of and spouted off some big names ($crwd $panw) like I knew something. His answer was short. Sentinel One is the best" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020411151893549266) 2026-02-08T08:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DimitryNakhla I never understood the point of this software (I had a seat). Neither was it profitable. And that was before the development of AI as a threat. Why anyone has owned this over the last year is bizarre. CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020967025330503983) 2026-02-09T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CedarStResearch @invest091 The new app Provides personalized quotes in real time Is this really value add for commercial accounts I cant imagine AJG and Marsh are just providing quotes" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020967690119282807) 2026-02-09T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021299482592412062) 2026-02-10T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Youre right I am not. But I a finance man and curious. Monday didnt earn a profit before all of this. And they just guided down for [----]. The equity isnt worth the $10-$15B it somehow commanded and theres no reason to believe its worth its $5B market cap in [----]. Are you experienced in back end IT If a group of skilled and motivated developers made a replacement curated for a specific org would that product have relatively less bugs and maintenance requirements given its custom design I assume it may also be more enjoyable and friendly to use if it was made specifically for one company/team" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021330202018926762) 2026-02-10T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@gordocap18 AI will be president of the United States before a lender makes a $5B asset backed loan to a EBITDA shitco with paper rated by ChatGPT. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021333473596940714) 2026-02-10T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When would you consider it a bargain If its ROIIC wasnt infinite Id consider 20x fair and 25x a bit rich. $SPGI however can distribute all of that FCF yield and still grow with effectively no incremental capital. Its a 5% coupon that grows 10% now Were 20x today and 25x if you assume market intel segment goes to zero. 30x ratings and indices alone which is just two-thirds of earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021335744997097572) 2026-02-10T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@PGorgey51003 I already replied to you here How many shares of $MNDY do you own @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021355844705845695) 2026-02-10T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TheStalwart Just wait til Anthropic releases an app for oil @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63 https://t.co/oqlVUZVqVc @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%)" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021382254149370288) 2026-02-11T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021392645365563846) 2026-02-11T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The more I look at my portfolio the more I entertain reducing it to [--] positions. $AMZN $SPGI $MSFT $CP Competing for a fifth spot would be Berkshire and Meta $BRK.B $META @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021393452332958010) 2026-02-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Is it fair question whether the SaaS model has failed Has not all of the value in SaaS accrued to the SWEs hidden as SBC Take $TEAM for instance a well distributed product set and a market cap that peaked at $125B. Their SBC wipes out more than 100% of the adjusted profits theyve ever made. Like a Portland co-op masquerading as an inclusive Walmart. The employees are the only ones benefitting. Who in their right mind values that at $100 Billion $SNAP is famous for this as well Reminds me of the original Berkshire Hathaway textile business. As buffet recites it all manufacturing improvements" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021453208842010775) 2026-02-11T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rafoholic @KobeissiLetter Yeah its a fat PEG still. I get that its a durable and strong business but the risk of technological displacement has to be non zero. Hard to justify 25-30x for the growth of a railroad that has a physically insurmountable moat. Or SPGI at 20x now. Amazon in the mid 20s" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021700494692086231) 2026-02-11T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@optimusbutler @LeoNelissen Thanks for sharing. The pricing power is good to see. Slowing growth is not. Sounds like Pepsi the last couple years. And Adobe" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021703700218307037) 2026-02-11T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Muzzlebuster @Ashton_1nvests Any write ups or materials on $BN you recommend" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021725424506876373) 2026-02-11T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The trade would be long NVDA (capex recipient) and short Msft (software and capex spend) But I dont trade so Im long Amzn for the decade own Meta and Msft too. Valuation is too compelling. Meta ad rev Azure and Microsoft unlikely to falter on CoPilot & office hard enough to blow its position https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021738074276082163) 2026-02-12T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that OpenAI had approved its first insurance app on ChatGPT. According to a report in Reinsurance News Tuio one of Spain's leading digital insurers has launched an app that lets consumers generate a personalized home insurance quote. Personal coverages are relatively simple and homogenous which could make it easier to develop AI" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021107731713900898) 2026-02-10T06:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the Mobility spin off. Unlike the rest of the market S&Ps earnings growth requires virtually no incremental capital. So if the FCF yield is 5% they can distribute ALL of that to shareholders and still grow EPS at a 10-14% CAGR (buybacks help here). This is part of what makes $SPGI a gem. Most businesses have to plow FCF" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021329003907514721) 2026-02-10T21:02Z [----] followers, 22.3K engagements "@yummyCenturyEgg Could frame this as $SPGI and $MCO will leverage AI to widen their positions. Why would this lower the barrier to entry 08-today is a long time so interested in your perspective" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021334422377951647) 2026-02-10T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021345471504187621) 2026-02-10T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@FundamentEdge Would argue PayPal and Qualcomm as well Interesting to see a handful with 2% or higher revisions upward: ServiceNow Fico TakeTwo and Nasdaq among them" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021826421883384174) 2026-02-12T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022075818953126220) 2026-02-12T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If ChatGPT or Anthropic somehow does become the insurance agent of the future doesnt that make the data $VRSK even more valuable Market cap: $24B Owners earnings: $1B Operating margin: 44% Returns on capital: 30-40% $IAK $KIE $PGR $BRK.B $MRSH Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022105237226664424) 2026-02-13T00:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "be $ttd complain about $goog $meta every qtr complain about $amzn too get owned by a company called $app lovin Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] https://t.co/f25fVlIsVx Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022117113394344354) 2026-02-13T01:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Two thoughts. [--]. Good point. And this predates the IHS Markit and Refinitiv acquisitions when the earnings were a step higher in quality [--]. No guarantee this repeats. At 5% yield and little to no capital required to achieve 6-9% earnings growth reasonable to expect 10-14% CAGR from here. Could be better but dont be greedy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022131045089628343) 2026-02-13T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@joinyellowbrick If agents file taxes for us will they still use Intuit Saw you recommended in October. Thoughts changed" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022153744822284441) 2026-02-13T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For Amazon by far. They see unrelenting demand for a 35% margin business. Runways like that come maybe 1-3x in a lifetime. And people want them to do what exactly buy back stock at a 4% earnings yield And not capture 35% ROIC on AWS capacity thats backlogged to the GDP of Greece Build that shit. Clear path to $100B EBIT then $200B. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022194846208077969) 2026-02-13T06:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@qualtrim It was 100x actual earnings. Now its 50+ trailing 40x forward. Why should it trade any richer than that" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022220994174423240) 2026-02-13T08:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "That gave me a thought. If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021344856954765735) 2026-02-10T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@LeoNelissen Its still in excess of 20x forward. Those adjusted figures are crap" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021649633643319560) 2026-02-11T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "You think youre smart when you say advisors arent worth a 1% fee. I used to say that. The alternative to an advisor is not a low cost S&P [---] fund. The alternative is speculative garbage and the destruction of capital. Tips from the barbecue. $AMC. $OPEN. $ULTY. $MSTY. Or sitting in cash for a decade. Average retail CAGRs were 2% BEFORE Robinhood and free trading came on the scene. Whatever your view on $HOOD being a casino vs a financial platform the following observation is stunning to me: If we include Januarys estimated loss of $(4-5)B Robinhoods customers have made very little money" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021671769422340270) 2026-02-11T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Guidance Miss for $TYL: guided for 7% organic growth in [----] Market Cap: $13 Billion Current Multiple: 28x Owner Earnings @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021698370746949899) 2026-02-11T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Any shareholders of Brookfield here Im looking for a thorough breakdown of the business (article Substack podcast etc) if anyone can share. Specially on $BN $BN $BAM $BIP $BEP $BEPC" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021702073847513286) 2026-02-11T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020339506164142410) 2026-02-08T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BR Broadridge ROIC: 18.5% [--] yr ROIIC: 15% Competitive position: Monopoly Morningstar moat rating: Wide [--] yr earnings CAGR: 15.7% Avg dividend yield: 1.5% Expected shareholder CAGR: 17.2% Multiple compression: Earnings + dividends have grown 327% since [----]. Total shareholder return has only been 203%. Recent drawdown: -35% Market cap: $20B TTM owners earnings: $1.3B TTM multiple: 15.5x 26-28 proj earnings growth: 10% CAGR Threats Possible but weak as of now: [--]. Brokers bringing proxy voting in house. Possibility: High Earnings at threat: 3-5% of earnings No visible threat to ballot" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021371378335875542) 2026-02-10T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@buccocapital Quite profitable like Salesforce and Adobe Maybe door #2. At least Salesforce has a chance at it" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022129137813700651) 2026-02-13T02:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] http://Monday.com http://Monday.com" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019094688641479007) 2026-02-04T17:04Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "@jiujitsu199 @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Any reason they cant send the compute to AWS Thats a scary thought. but in long run could be great if half our men werent sitting on screens and were out building things instead" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022118135600709754) 2026-02-13T01:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "None of this may be relative to your trade but I see almost 27x operating income 25x actual profits. Pull out the cash and its closer to [--]. Dont love that they dont see margin expansion in [--] but the growth is solid. Not sure how Id justify owning it over meta unless zuck/capex is a no go for some https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022172553780101136) 2026-02-13T04:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I see you were just sharing someone elses pick. How do you think of Jensens analogy to the calculator. Would AI rebuild the calculator or just use it Will AI recreate (or go around) platforms like Salesforce and Intuit or use them There probably still needs to be a UI for review and human input. We could say the agent will just recreate that but why when intuit is so good and pretty cheap already Would love to hear a counter or any thoughts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022277214059077672) 2026-02-13T11:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@joecarlsonshow REITs benefitted from [--] years of easy policy and falling rates which met their end with ZIRP. Today - REITs are a stable source of income for retirees at best. At worst they are leveraged bonds with interest rate risk and may fail to outpace the growth of the monetary base" [X Link](https://x.com/_Raise_me_up/status/1794636530897858670) 2024-05-26T07:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Quant_Kurtis Put a [--] year chart of the S&P next to a [--] year chart of USD" [X Link](https://x.com/_Raise_me_up/status/1805867722389295156) 2024-06-26T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@StockMKTNewz Apparently the Special Committee is preoccupied with other work that is ongoing. Unbelievable commentary from a board without an auditor and facing delisting" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1853915490063958358) 2024-11-05T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Summing up todays call with $SMCI Liana (CEO) was optimistic and upbeat. However management neglected to provide any update on the search for a new auditor or their listing status on the Nasdaq. CFO David Weigand was curt and dismissive. Felt like a big 🖕 to investors. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss) for the qtr ended 9/30/24. $SMCI guides for non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 and revenue of $5.8B for the qtr ending 12/31/24. These are 20% below previous expectations. Shares down 50% since EY resignation. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1853935449796136999) 2024-11-05T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DividendDude_X $CNC is an opportunity here" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1858572740875137490) 2024-11-18T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Centene ($CNC) is more compelling than any name here at 9x cash profits that are growing at 10% annually. Individual exchanges are more than offsetting Medicaid churn. New management team is aggressively repurchasing shares and insiders are buying as well. The [--] Best Risk-Reward Opportunities In The Stock Market Today: 👇 1) Google $GOOGL 2) Hims & Hers $HIMS 3) Celsius $CELH 4) Amazon $AMZN 5) Elevance Health $ELV 6) PepsiCo $PEP 7) High Tide $HITI 8) Hersheys $HSY 9) Meta Platforms $META 10) Crocs $CROX The [--] Best Risk-Reward Opportunities In The Stock Market Today: 👇 1) Google $GOOGL 2)" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1859118017356922890) 2024-11-20T06:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Hard to do anything other than applaud Mileis performance so far. The quality of life in the developed world is owed to industrial innovation and entrepreneurial brilliance. Bureaucracy regulation and socialist regimes are not your friend. Impressive progress in Argentina Impressive progress in Argentina" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1859471951397613876) 2024-11-21T05:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@marketplunger1 $PBR" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1859693186928824359) 2024-11-21T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@thexcapitalist Wait why dont these reconcile to actual sales 30% of $650B for [----] cloud is $190B but Amazon only did $27.5B in Q3 AWS a $110B annual run rate. This suggests Amazons [----] AWS revenues and operating income will be far less than you are projecting. Thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1861585423853862990) 2024-11-27T01:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SashInvesting Ituran is another one. Great management fortress balance sheet attractive valuation. $ITRN" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1863157204817440994) 2024-12-01T09:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@buccocapital You can add at least two new markets to the list: GPU Server production: Nvidia AMD LLMs: Google Meta OpenAI" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1864601085136007214) 2024-12-05T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BrianFeroldi ASML" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1877217768107385028) 2025-01-09T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$PDD reported 24% revenue growth and $3.8B of net income for the quarter. Revenue missed expectations by about 4% and the stock shot down to $113 before a sharp reversal. You have to wonder if these purchases are being funded by the central bank. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807662494105771) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "That scenario is a catch [--]. I dont like the report and I dont think the market did either. This report from $PDD offered no obvious bright spots - JP Morgan" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807665128214829) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "But if china is going to act as a put on the stock this limits the downside risk for investors. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807667359486166) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Now lets get to the elephant in the room: With $50B in cash why isnt $PDD repurchasing its shares Especially with the government now encouraging it. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807669699907776) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is introducing a tail risk of fraud in the minds of shareholders who begin to wonder if $PDD really has more money than $AAPL which has been aggressively repurchasing shares at three times the valuation. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807672568868878) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As a shareholder myself it is frustrating. $50B in cash earning 6% (actually not sure how theyre earning 6% btw) is great but rates are likely to decline sooner than later and the earnings yield on buying back stock is 9% (and tax-free). 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807676419182808) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fundamentally $PDD is still attractively priced. Price to sales and forward earnings (11x) multiples are not demanding at all. The company is inexpensive both absolutely (DCF) and relatively (vs peers and historically). 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1902807678830907603) 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@thexcapitalist Yet they still dont make any money. The entire sector booms and they still have to adjust their income statement to show any earnings. Hard pass" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1903722039036497968) 2025-03-23T08:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MichaelKantro VFLO continues to outperform. If you want intl exposure make sure its currency hedged. $IHDG $HSCZ" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1906892129181589617) 2025-04-01T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "While they were right that outsourcing our manufacturing would aid foreign industry they failed to realize or foresee that America would still house the best businesses just on the next frontiers. We may have lost the manufacturing of cars and shoes to china and Vietnam" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1908058041850974565) 2025-04-04T07:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "But we built the Apples Nikes Nvidias and Lockheed Martins which designed the best computers sportswear semis and missiles. The majority of the most innovative and valuable businesses are all still here from Tesla to Uber to Amazon and Google Crowdsource and Palantir" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1908058575722983710) 2025-04-04T07:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@HERMESINVEST1 Those are fake profits. AMD is hardly breaking even before adjustments" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1909522298576527496) 2025-04-08T08:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@HERMESINVEST1 What are you talking about Xilinx was acquired in [----]. SBC is perpetual at AMD. There is nothing to see here. Even in the height of a semis boom $AMD still couldnt make money. Youre overpaying and will continue to trail Nvidia by a wide margin" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1909570023833911616) 2025-04-08T11:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Same can be said for Costco. Sell it. Buy Amazon. $AMZN $COST $WMT $AMZN is trading at a lower P/E ratio than Walmart by a margin. Meanwhile Amazon: Dominant e-commerce platform leader in cloud computing third largest digital ad provider making its own AI chips. Walmart: Proudly selling groceries. Make it make sense. https://t.co/vZ2bWOZA0A $AMZN is trading at a lower P/E ratio than Walmart by a margin. Meanwhile Amazon: Dominant e-commerce platform leader in cloud computing third largest digital ad provider making its own AI chips. Walmart: Proudly selling groceries. Make it make sense." [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1912216526683533676) 2025-04-15T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KoyfinCharts @PodContrarian [--] of [--] have continued downward to new lows. Expedia and Amazon are the [--] that have appreciated" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1936904846051025090) 2025-06-22T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My buddy is a senior business analyst at Intel. He just told me this: Worst case Ill become a pipefitter or electrician. Is this the future for white collar workers 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1943119408064532960) 2025-07-10T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1943120031979917663) 2025-07-10T01:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@biancoresearch The hedge funds own the guru index. Retail trades in and out of the retail index. The two are not the same. Guarantee average retail returns have not outperformed as always" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1945903625508999645) 2025-07-17T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Bitcoin arbitrage opportunity: Kalshi implies a 36% chance $BTC $160k by year-end. Options market says 14% ($IBIT $90C 12/31 trading at $3). Trade idea: Buy [----] NO contracts on Kalshi at [--] Long $IBIT $80C 12/31/25 at $4.4 Anybody in on this already" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1946757235272761785) 2025-07-20T02:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "51 out of [--] countries that reached sovereign debt levels of 130% of GDP ended up defaulting either through devaluation inflation restructuring or outright nominal default" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1947005569543639436) 2025-07-20T18:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The memo to bond holders and currency holders was basically: "Thanks for playing try again next time." Its been even worse this time around even before accounting for #inflation. $ZROZ $TLT $IEF $USD bond holders are the suckers" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1947007906630779034) 2025-07-20T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ftr_investors I own all four and think they are in fact the highest quality names with margins of safety. $TSM and $AMAT are likely still undervalued here as well" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1947927094778073157) 2025-07-23T07:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TarekAntaki Add this from constellation (owner of Modelo and Corona brands)" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1953566598276821306) 2025-08-07T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trump: Hes got us in a bad place. Did Jerome Powell legislate the US into 7% deficits Did the fed spend a dollar of the $37B of national debt It the US borrowing rate should be 1%. Meanwhile CPI is 3% and the deficit is 7% 👀 Good luck with that 🫡 Trump was clear he wants rates down to 1% because the U.S. has to rollover $9.5 trillion worth of short duration debt this fall. Rates don't enter a 2nd wave drop without an economic crisis. He's told you what's about to happen. https://t.co/zaQlOOnTPI Trump was clear he wants rates down to 1% because the U.S. has to rollover $9.5 trillion worth of" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1956159035973231103) 2025-08-15T01:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SMCI this morning: We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting which could if not remediated adversely affect our ability to report our financial condition and results of operations in a timely and accurate manner $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss) for the qtr ended 9/30/24. $SMCI guides for non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 and revenue of $5.8B for the qtr ending 12/31/24. These are 20% below previous expectations. Shares down 50% since EY resignation. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss)" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1961464552673231187) 2025-08-29T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SMCI 🚩 🚩🚩 "We also cannot assure you that additional material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting will not arise or be identified in the future In English: Our books are cooked and we cant promise you wont find even more problems later" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1961465894300684337) 2025-08-29T16:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ASML Here are [--] companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the worlds most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces https://t.co/XBcEIdOKZv Here are [--] companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the worlds most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1962630958970237079) 2025-09-01T21:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The case for Oracle to overtake leaders in the cloud market while exciting is shaky and discounts the fundamental advantages of the existing hyperscalers. Here is a dose of reality. $ORCL $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG 🧵 A new wave of AI investments is here and the winners this cycle wont look like the last. The cloud once dominated by $AMZN $MSFT and $GOOG is shifting rapidly. Two dynamics stand out: [--] Bare compute isnt enough anymore. - Raw infrastructure alone wont cut it. The https://t.co/yFevct6I7J A new wave of AI investments is here and the winners this cycle wont look like the last. The cloud" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966051792778867166) 2025-09-11T08:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As we now know Oracles historic RPO is concentrated to a $300B contract to provide OpenAI with [---] gW of compute. This creates a significant point of failure. If OpenAI consumes less compute than forecasted $ORCL could be left with expensive underutilized capacity. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966054073951756467) 2025-09-11T08:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Standing up $140B of capacity is another issue. Cloud providers are in a capital-intensive arms race and are still supply-constrained. Oracle's ability to provision power and monetize this capacity on schedule is not guaranteed. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966056118066753543) 2025-09-11T08:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Oracles ability to leverage its legacy database is an advantage but its not disrupting. With AWS Bedrock AI is run on data without lock in or migration. The full stack of strategic advantages offer comprehensive solutions and is why $AMZN is the leader. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966059706012807620) 2025-09-11T08:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MSFT The enterprise moat of Microsoft is unmatched. With AI integrated into Office [---] and the Azure-OpenAI partnership they have a direct path into the workflow of nearly every major corporation. This is a distribution model Oracle (and even Amazon) cannot replicate. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966060225615831289) 2025-09-11T08:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$GOOG Google Clouds competitive edge is in its silicon. Decades of R&D have yielded TPUs that offer distinct performance advantages for AI and ML workloads. This is a technological moat and nearly 90% of generative AI unicorns are already on GCP. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966061217476411486) 2025-09-11T08:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The hyperscalers are not being disrupted. While Oracles deal with OpenAI is massive meeting it will pose challenges of its own and it does not pose a fundamental shift in market power. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966064698912338107) 2025-09-11T09:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AMZN $MSFT & $GOOG have enduring moats that will solidify their dominance: AWS: Unmatched scale versatility ecosystem the full-stack Microsoft Azure: Invaluable enterprise relationships software moat Google Cloud: Cutting-edge AI innovation proprietary silicon 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966066190184493202) 2025-09-11T09:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This works because you chose the optimal starting point when the official price of gold was illegitimate. Aug 1971: President Nixon officially ended the international convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold By 1980: the price of gold in USD had increased by 20x" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966591384917573669) 2025-09-12T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Gold is real purchasing power that is protected from inflation and the debasement of fiat currency. Gold is not productive capital like business equity. Over the last [---] years: Nominal returns: US equities: 10% CAGR Gold: 5% CAGR Real returns: US equities: 6-7% Gold: 1%" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1966592268929733002) 2025-09-12T19:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@QualityInvest5 Aria our portfolios are very similar. Long Google Amazon ASML. Interested in your take here. Creative Cloud has network effects & switching costs but Im gauging if that will justify price as better tools emerge. How do you see market share for creative tools progressing" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1967838502688788964) 2025-09-16T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why mine gold in South Africa or Brazil when you can run a pawn shop and have customers bring the gold to you $NEM $B $GDX ⛏107% since [----] $FCFS 👑 690% since [----] FirstCash ($FCFS) Pawn shop operator. [----] stores in US & Mexico. Brick and mortar retail ❌ Capital intensive ❌ Unlikely to have a moat ❌ Im out ✅ But look at the chart 📈 https://t.co/J5iWwxULXw FirstCash ($FCFS) Pawn shop operator. [----] stores in US & Mexico. Brick and mortar retail ❌ Capital intensive ❌ Unlikely to have a moat ❌ Im out ✅ But look at the chart 📈 https://t.co/J5iWwxULXw" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1968936765839835565) 2025-09-19T07:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cloud Compute: Hyperscalers Amazon (AWS) Microsoft (Azure) Google Cloud They are the foundation and AI does not exist without compute from these [--]. Backlogs for their cloud services are now $700B. They literally cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971084783766863930) 2025-09-25T05:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Chip Designers / Accelerators $NVDA still dominant GPUs miles ahead of competitors & CUDA platform is embedded with customers. $AMD #2 has struggled to monetize AI so far. $AVGO Designs custom chips (like Googles TPU) has emerged as a key player. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971088085485224078) 2025-09-25T05:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Networking & Infrastructure $ANET leader in high-speed switching for AI clusters $CAT $URI $PWR $MTZ powering physical buildout of data centers + electrical grid By [----] data-center demand may outpace grid growth. Electricity will become the constraint🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971089705740726748) 2025-09-25T05:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Some important caveats: LLMs themselves risk commoditization most value accrues to compute & distribution $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $NVDA $TSM location risk geopolitics in Taiwan Some novel areas (quantum GPU-cloud startups) are speculative ideas today. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971092157978329161) 2025-09-25T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Practical takeaway: Hyperscalers - $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG = own distribution + monetize AI directly. $TSM + $ASML & peers = the bottleneck with wide moats $NVDA = still the leader in GPUs though competition risk rising. These are the best risk/reward skews 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971092825216606503) 2025-09-25T06:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The landscape is evolving rapidly but this is how to stack the odds: Own the bottlenecks (compute chips power). Stay diversified across the highest quality. Avoid chasing hype in speculative businesses. Full doc below if youre interested. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971093772361703524) 2025-09-25T06:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "AI complex but keep it simple: Own the core of compute (cloud chips power) Diversify across the highest quality Avoid hype & speculative businesses $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC $META $ANET $CAT $PWR Full doc👇 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1971440067534258198) 2025-09-26T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@porterstansb Appreciate the post as I find the Chapwood index a good gauge of sticker price inflation. However equal weighting toothpaste and household rent is inappropriate for a measure of dollar-inflation and purchasing power" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1973446953230053785) 2025-10-01T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@porterstansb A 17.5% discount rate Are we serious Persistent low single digit GDP growth + record fiscal is yet to exceed 8% makes that easy to dismiss. Yes the USD is debasing but not at 17% and not at the chapwood index. Coming from someone with a sizable gold position" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1973448506997416086) 2025-10-01T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter We need as much computing power as we can possibly get OpenAI President Greg Brockman $AMD $OPENAI $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975308144038531515) 2025-10-06T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter I think the whole industry right now is trying to really adapt to the amount of demand for AI services that we see coming over the next couple of years $AMD $NVDA $OPENAI $AVGO This is direct demand for cloud compute $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975308509282771164) 2025-10-06T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter "What we're really seeing is a world where there's going to be absolute compute scarcity $TSMC $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $AMD $NVDA $AVGO How can we build in advance of this compute desert that we're heading towards otherwise." $OpenAI President Greg Brockman" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975309294599028819) 2025-10-06T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Want a peek into the lowest quality financial thought on the internet Search the ticker of any yieldmax security $MSTY $ULTY $NVDA $TSLY Quantum computing tickers $IONQ $QBTS $RGBTI and $OPEN are runners up" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975384421680488812) 2025-10-07T02:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Who is buying bars of gold at midnight on a fucking Tuesday $GLD $IAU" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975832922981867839) 2025-10-08T07:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Central banks continue to build gold as they diversify from fiat and dollar reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975835185045512575) 2025-10-08T08:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Top purchasers of gold in 2025: [--]. Poland [--]. Azerbaijan [--]. Kazakhstan [--]. China [--]. Turkey" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975836259659755743) 2025-10-08T08:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Top sellers of gold: [--]. Uzbekistan [--]. Singapore [--]. Indonesia [--]. Russia [--]. Germany" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975836509522805198) 2025-10-08T08:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Jewelry accounts for 44% of global gold demand Roughly a fourth of gold purchases are for investment purposes but this rises to nearly 50% if you consider central bank reserves a form of sovereign wealth" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1975837311209459994) 2025-10-08T08:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterSchiff @CNBC But you were wrong. The S&P did not suffer a huge decline against gold. In fact the exact opposite occurred until very recently. Since this aired the S&P has appreciated 27% against gold. S&P [---] total return: 299% Gold total return: 215% $SPY $VOO $GLD" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976095181184368984) 2025-10-09T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Any surprise that central banks flipped to buyers of gold after the [--] GFC 👻 Ever since US policy has been to print its way out of crises and debase USD 🖨 Central banks want gold not dollars 📜 Equities gold real estate bitcoin 💰 Dont be the shmuck holding cash 💸" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976192536051102079) 2025-10-09T07:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements ""Lululemon is losing its soul" "They don't know how to how to attract or motivate creative talent" "Even worse they think they understand great product when they don't." - Lululemon Founder @ChipYVR $LULU Chip Wilson (Lululemon founder) takes out a full-page ad in WSJ to roast the brand https://t.co/rtPAnOQ2s8 Chip Wilson (Lululemon founder) takes out a full-page ad in WSJ to roast the brand https://t.co/rtPAnOQ2s8" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976380318665015789) 2025-10-09T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RihardJarc Meanwhile there is a concentration of demand. 99% of token spend comes from [--] customers according to the CEO of Groq and a third of spend just from OAI and Anthropic. OAI recent deals with $AMD $NVDA $ORCL imply financing may be getting harder to secure. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976403593315090913) 2025-10-09T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RihardJarc OpenAI plans for 26GW of capacity will cost it $1.5T it doesnt have. OpenAI is projected to burn $9B this year and $40B by [----]. Reminder: $1.5T is $1500B Hence $NVDA acting as a backstop and providing $100B structured as $10B for each GW OAI brings online 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976404670907355180) 2025-10-09T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@RihardJarc More questions: Will OAI & Anthropic have reliable funding to scale as planned Who gains and who loses if they stumble $NVDA $AMZN $ORCL $MSFT Second and third order consequences could be far reaching as AI capex has reached 1% of #GDP and is rapidly gaining share. 12/" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976412300199460978) 2025-10-09T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RihardJarc This demand ultimately flows to data centers equipment & energy. Which pieces of the market have oligopolistic structure and who are the winners $EQIX $DELL Will substations transformers and cooling scale fast enough $NEE $ETR $ABB $ETN $VRT Would love feedback here 13/" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976413802003669076) 2025-10-09T22:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A piece of positive evidence supporting the useful life of GPUs in data centers coming from Microsoft Azure CEO Our hardware usually has a [--] to [--] year refresh cycle If still true this supports $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG reported earnings scrutinized below. Via @AlphaSenseInc @RihardJarc Read this from @RihardJarc The article is an excellent snapshot and analysis of AI infrastructure and financing including some major headlines: [--]. OpenAI plans imply $1.5T of capex [--]. $NVDA GPU depreciation likely being understated by $AMZN $NBIS $CRWV More takeaways: 👇 1/ @RihardJarc Read this from @RihardJarc The" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976541535807447261) 2025-10-10T06:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@StockMarketNerd And the whole time total $GOOG Search queries have been rising as the entire market expands. AI agents arent taking from traditional search. Theyre creating novel growth and paving new roads in the market. Google traffic has increased since ChatGPTs release not decreased" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976696441033965902) 2025-10-10T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JohnHuber72 This capex creates very high margin cloud revenues that do not expire after one year. High ROI opportunities are often very limited. Finding one with a runway as long as AWS Azure GCP is a gold mine for $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT and most shareholders applaud the capital allocation" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976771021249384612) 2025-10-10T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Martin on Bitcoin: Bitcoins scarcity mechanism is not unique and can be replicated by other capped-supply cryptocurrencies unlike golds natural scarcity. Cryptographic design is a security risk & could compromise private keys within one to two decades. 1/2 https://t.co/raean3ZaT7 https://t.co/raean3ZaT7" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976799114450157636) 2025-10-10T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin doesnt have an army Without centralized authority or sovereign backing Bitcoin remains exposed to geopolitical and regulatory pressures that pose existential risks. Bitcoin is inherently speculative. Going all-in is reckless. #btc #bitcoin $IBIT $MSTR $BMNR" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976800236459921846) 2025-10-11T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@theallinpod While everyone is waiting on AWS Azure and GCP for compute $AMZN $MSFT & $GOOG are waiting on $TSM Unlike fiber in the late 90s racks of $NVDA GPUs $MU HBM and $INTC / $AMD CPUs are sold out before TSM etches a single wafer" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976815656709521827) 2025-10-11T01:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JohnHuber72 Fair points. They are no longer the asset-light businesses of [----]. As long as the backlogs remain robust I expect hyperscalers to retain pricing power but Im watching this + the server useful life (about [--] years per Azure CEO) as my $AMZN thesis is built on AWS margins" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976819157246378235) 2025-10-11T01:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RihardJarc Spoke to a contact @ Google tonight & confirmed demand for A100s is persistent $NVDA released the A100 in May [----]. Over [--] years later $GOOG is still monetizing them in cloud contracts Longer useful lives are huge boons for $AMZN & $MSFT ROI on GPUs @RihardJarc any thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1976932315952730501) 2025-10-11T08:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@compoundingcap1 You may be right and the margins suggest so. If I were a shareholder Id be concerned. As an Amazon shareholder I dont like the flooding of supply to the market but theres a lot of execution risk of course. I think demand runway supply even if OAI & ORCL execute" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1977110180249944574) 2025-10-11T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@APompliano @philrosenn Defining bitcoin as the measure of purchasing power is a dishonest take. Nobody buys anything in bitcoin ever. Since [----] the purchasing power of gold has increased against most assets including real estate wages food and energy. Long btc but short bad takes like this" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1977592370016453091) 2025-10-13T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@rev_cap Ever heard of AWS" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1978211609177657494) 2025-10-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Barchart Gold charts of all time periods are starting to look identical 1Y 10Y 25Y charts of Gold: $GLD $IAU" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1978532551041155279) 2025-10-15T18:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@borrowed_ideas Jarc is right to point out that the useful life may be compressing as product cycles quicken - and even more so in a world of limited power. Will be paying attention to these developments at AWS and their peers. Thanks for sharing I enjoyed the read very much" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1978677451170415011) 2025-10-16T04:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JerryCap $MELI" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1978914513878471149) 2025-10-16T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@brubarian Which comprises the majority of Booz Allen contracts. Seeing AI at 6% of rev is impressive and a huge tailwind imo as I dont see any operational gains coming from AI without the likes of Deloitte Accenture Booz Allen SAIC Leidos etc" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1978934627923345679) 2025-10-16T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mply_cap Very impressive portfolio for someone so young. Withstand the volatility and these businesses will compound favorably. I own a few names here including [--] of the top 3" [X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1979006691753521203) 2025-10-17T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lmao what's gonna happen do the packers forfeit By rule they have to kick a PAT" [X Link](https://x.com/_Raise_me_up/status/250441916586536960) 2012-09-25T03:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@DDBlakeFischer Blake
Blake posts on X about $amzn, $goog, business, $msft the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +425%
- [--] Month [-------] +89%
- [--] Months [-------] +17,189%
- [--] Year [-------] +17,471%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -29%
- [--] Months [---] +1,910%
- [--] Year [---] +3,819%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +3.80%
- [--] Month [-----] +5.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +34%
- [--] Year [-----] +33%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 58.33% technology brands 40.63% finance 23.96% cryptocurrencies 12.5% countries 5.21% automotive brands 2.6% currencies 2.6% exchanges 0.52% fashion brands 0.52% nfl 0.52%
Social topic influence $amzn #371, $goog 8.85%, business #2929, $msft #623, $nvda 7.29%, $spgi #10, microsoft #2913, ai 5.73%, $googl 5.73%, meta 5.21%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kobeissiletter @rihardjarc @dimitrynakhla @gordocap18 @longequity @saynototrading @firstadopter @ernestwongbwm @k3ithmccullough @ddblakefischer @koyfincharts @pgorgey51003 @someone2264 @returnoncap @leonelissen @buccocapital @thexcapitalist @hermesinvest1 @porterstansb @johnhuber72
Top assets mentioned Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Metadium (META) Bitcoin (BTC) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV) Marsh (MRSH) monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Neurobro (BRO) Moody's Corporation (MCO) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) Lowes Companies Inc (LOW) Accenture (ACN) Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Now Coin (NOW) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) Bedrock (BR) Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW) Aon PLC (AON) Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) AMP Token (AMP) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Msci Inc (MSCI) ServiceNow Inc (NOW) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc (RYAN) Dow Inc (DOW) UNIPOLY (UNP) Carlisle Companies, Inc. (CSL) Owens Corning (OC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"The market intelligence segment being zeroed by the market still produces 32% margins and nearly a $5B revenue run rate. There is current and terminal value to the data even if it is relegated to a plug-in as part of the worst case scenario they shit the bed on transforming their UX. The balance sheet is effectively a f ton of goodwill and intangibles from the IHS Markit combination. The intangibles are in effect deferred tax assets as they get to expense $1B annually reducing tax by $200M for the next [--] years. This also has the effect of understating earnings power by the $1B paper expense."
X Link 2026-02-10T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I also built smaller positions in two BDCs as they sold below NAV earlier in the month. $BXSL and $ARCC are two of the better ones with low rates of non-accruals and payment-in-kind (PIK) which investors should watch out for. BXSL and Ares each cover their high dividends with net income. BXSL is a new fund but its book is one of the most defensive among all BDCs. Nearly the entire portfolio is first lien senior secured. Ares is one the biggest BDCs with a long track record of success. Credit distress and/or liquidity concerns cause it to sell off every so often and sometimes below book value"
X Link 2025-11-04T23:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ServoWealth Great post. There are plenty of assets to rotate or diversify toward. An equal weight portfolio of S&P large value small value and REITs has actually outperformed since [----] $SPY $VBR $XLRE $VFLO $SCHD @KobeissiLetter Good time to diversify https://t.co/XrUNoT4zPC @KobeissiLetter Good time to diversify https://t.co/XrUNoT4zPC"
X Link 2025-12-18T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@long_equity $LOW $MRSH & $EXR limit orders on $MA $MSCI & $FTNT"
X Link 2026-01-22T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Charter is down another 24% since this post $CHTR In the words of Ben graham: Overpaying for a great company is not the chief risk of investing. The chief risk of investing is in buying a poor quality business that merely looks cheap based on a few years of favorable earnings. @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA"
X Link 2026-01-29T09:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SayNoToTrading I figured Id find a post of yours if I searched this ticker. Great company. On the watchlist"
X Link 2026-01-30T06:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Intel is the most interesting one here outsourcing everything to Indian consultants at Accenture $ACN Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵 https://t.co/Ta1xg48mum Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵 https://t.co/Ta1xg48mum"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How does this compare to the market I know marsh reported solid org growth but curious how much of Browns slowdown is explained by industry volume or not Another thought: is there anything to be said regarding underwriting discipline I.e. if the market is underpricing pulling back may be strategic. Otherwise the divergence in org growth does look clear. Hope to hear your thoughts. Thanks for posting https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017352130961805458 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017352130961805458"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DimitryNakhla Autodesk is still 49x forward 36x [--] 27x [--] Similar for most of the list. Look at the financial statements theyre more expensive than they look and this is in part why they continue selling off"
X Link 2026-01-31T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Breadcrumb_Cap Have you looked at the tool Anthropic released today PBC Im having trouble imaging how its impacts their exchange data or listing revenues but I havent looked at it myself"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah same here. I feel a bit out of my circle of competence predicting their place in the enterprise ecosystem in a world of AI agents but Salesforce is one of the first software Id buy here. Actually a small limit order hit at $200 so I guess I do own a small position now. The only name Ive really bought is Microsoft. Cyber seems like an obvious beneficiary but their valuations are silly outside of fortinet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019102189034303952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019102189034303952"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks for posting. Adobe hasnt grown at 25% since [----]. Revenue growth is projected 7-9% next few years and margins are under pressure so the only way to double digit eps growth is buying back shares. They can probably hit 12% eps growth by doing so but the upside is a lot less than a 25% grower like Samsara or Snowflake. Whether or not they retain the prof workflow is the big question and there seem to be plenty of pros who land on both sides. Ive talked to some who think its irreplaceable and other like a vp at a marketing agency whose teams are intentionally moving off Adobe"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"At this point the trade desk could work if they execute but why anyone owned this at 2-3x the multiples of meta and google was just dumb If you didnt realize how expensive it was you need to stop quoting adjusted multiples on all your favorite websites and analyze financial statements yourself. $TTD $META $GOOG Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: 22"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dee_bosa Great clip $MNDY equity is worth $5B why exactly For bug fixes that can be outsourced to Mexico or India CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@wise_reformed @LOGOinvestor Valid point ServiceNow is hardly running $2B in operating profit so a market cap in excess of $100B is far from cheap"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@fejau_inc As a shareholder kind of awesome that they are investing into 30-50% margins instead of buying back stock at a 3-5% earnings yield"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@firstadopter @jukan05 So why is LSEG down so much"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. P/OCF should compress as capital intensity increases. Dep/capex becomes a greater % of revenue and profits [--]. Microsoft is underpriced here barring disruptions O365 or Azure supply constrains somehow becoming unutilized capacity as the market seems to fear by punishing capex for some reason https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019561141484326993 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019561141484326993"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Insert $PLTR $TSLA $NOW $CSU $TYL $TTD $WMT $COST etc Well said This is why you dont pay 130x earnings & 22x sales at peak valuations even for a business as high-quality as $AXON. As Warren Buffett said: A too-high purchase price can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments. $AXON -54% from highs. https://t.co/kHos08c3iV This is why you dont pay 130x earnings & 22x sales at peak valuations even for a business as high-quality as $AXON. As Warren Buffett said: A too-high purchase price can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jack_Raines Jesus Christ"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better. Nailed it 🎯 @michaelbatnick on sorting through the SaaSacre and Claude-induced $IGV nuke @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on this one and might make a buy here. The Capex concerns are silly to me. Microsoft matches them to contracted revenue and says no to a lot of requests for azure capacity. They have a $600B backlog and market @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TechFundies Michael Batnick nailed it with this quote on his podcast this week: Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@legithillbilly @Neorio12321 @bankingslut @ErnestWongBWM No thats a straw man. Walmart Costco and dollar general in particular have contributed to far more of the consolidation in grocery and they did it with executing a better business model and made operating profits that funded expansion"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"SBC is no better or worse than any other expense. The beef with SBC is that it pollutes FCF and the PE ratios that get cited. $NOW is around 40x forward if they earn $2.5B in real profits as modeled That being said this chart is relevant because it indicates operating leverage as far as the cost of SBC relative to revenue/eps. Thanks for posting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DurableCreators The rails for sure. Berkshire. And actually Amazon. Physical retail +the more that AI and compute proliferates is more demand for AWS"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"AWS margin is 35%. Investing as much as possible into that leads to clear ROIs with contracted capacity which is backlogged. Theyll have mega FCF whenever they decide to but holding back from adding capacity to AWS would be a missed opportunity. AWS is not the premiere CSP for AI training (GOOGLE is) but that also means theyre less prone to a training trough. AWS workloads are mostly traditional cloud migrations and the runway for that remains massive. Then we have inference of course which will be many times larger than training. TLDR the capex concerns are unfounded. Runways for"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZeeContrarian1 Sounds like a setup where Salesforce will beat raise and sell off 7%"
X Link 2026-02-08T08:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes I do all valuations by hand and will probably continue to do so until a tool can reliably calc owners earnings without being misled by SBC amortization noncash gains/losses or the working capital volatility in OCF. Which by the way 90% or more of the valuations and charts we see cited on here have at least one of those issues. Your after tax point to adjustments is prescient. I do it in my head at this point but its roughly equivalent to the formula you cited. I generally take GAAP net income plus or minus 80% of the adjustments if the tax benefit was temporary (e.g. gains or losses"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Have considered this same idea for Gartner acting as a source of validity in an ocean of AI tools. I think S&P and Moodys stand much greater chances of remaining cemented in their underwriting of securities. More efficient software may even boost their margins. Are there any risks we may be overlooking The chart on Verisk by the way is brutal. I havent spent much time on this one but find it interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@samsolid57 The bear case is basically that they should be buying back stock at a 3% return rather than investing into AWS at a 35% margin. Bizarre"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Where are you getting $493M And $57.3M Thats not whats on their income statement. They dont earn $400M let alone $550M. At that valuation I can get S&P Broadridge or the exchanges themself for the same valuation and much wider moats Its possible they maintain their subscription business but there has to be serious doubt there. Personally I only own companies whose staying power I have certainty on so Morningstar is not unique in not qualifying. I use a capital M for millions B for billions Factset situation feels similar to Morningstar research. Tons of nuance there for sure."
X Link 2026-02-08T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Got it. I wouldnt trust managements telling me what earnings should be unless these are actually one-time in nature and I can justify them. They probably add back SBC as well. Morningstar has never actually made $500M in after-tax profits. Using the financial statements and only adjusting for non-cash charges $Morn is 20x and thats on par with $SPGI (22.5x forward) and Broadridge (20x forward). I use the Morningstar reports as part of my research on any business. I also like some of the historical charts. In addition to absolute valuation I like to see relative valuation (to earnings or sales"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@k3ithmccullough Yes those are forward for $SPGI & $BR. Im more familiar with those two than Morningstar so easier to do. Probably also not fair to add 50% to earning power for one and not the other two. We can conclude here as its not intended to be argumentative"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@k3ithmccullough Lol yes thats a dog Ive thankfully avoided. Too much debt. Would you touch any of their peers"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"And why does that matter at all Most high ROIC businesses have extremely limited opportunities for reinvestment. AWS runs at a 35% margin. GCP is now earning 50% margins on incremental revenue. Backlogs are now approaching 2% of gdp everyone is supply constrained compute demand is clearly proliferating. And what We want Amazon to buy back stock at a 3% yield rather than invest into a 35% ROI at AWS Bizarre. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Meta was building a new world from scratch. AWS is expanding a utility that already powers a significant portion of the global GDP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that represent hundreds of billions in recurring non-discretionary enterprise spending. This is foundational infrastructure that literally keeps the lights on. 100% mission critical and durable in any scenario of outcomes for AI and model developments. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ok if we assume all of the startup/SMB mix in the backlog is both SaaS and at risk thats 15% of the backlog rounds up to $40M That leaves $200M of backlog remaining and power constraints (4 GW added) that have capped AWS new revenue to $21B YoY. If some SaaS trash fails its just next man up. Minor compression to the backlog (or marginally slower growth to it which is much more likely) is very different than collapsing ROI. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DimitryNakhla Thank you. The this is why you dont pay 100x earnings is great for this platform 🤝"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Love the quote. Predicting the future is inherently speculative. And even if youre right a crap ton of success and positive developments are already priced into Palantir and Tesla Nvidia was a crazy one because it was actually trading around 20x forward back at $40 in [----]. 400% return that didnt require paying 100x or more. And Id argue its because buyers werent paying 100x. That would have pulled forward much of the earnings growth as is the case with most valuations at that elevation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mindset4Money_X Is there a chart for price to EBIT or price to operating income"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"GPT released a chatbot app that delivers some insurance quotes Hard to see the direct impact to complex transaction advisory but traders may not want to wait and see and/or are discounting proliferation of better tools down the road I think brown & AJG have the most exposure to retail Insurance brokers are getting crushed today after OpenAI approved the first insurer-built AI app on ChatGPT - $WTW $AJG $RYAN $BRO $AON From GS The immediate feedback still is a degree on confusion & the top question is 'Why would this primarily impact the brokers (who https://t.co/P5xDehbPMN Insurance brokers"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If this is the bear case for AWS I should probably increase my position. Even if we assume (wrongly) that all of the backlog attributable to startups/SMB (15%) is both SaaS and at risk AWS is left with a backlog in excess of $200B Dont confuse AWS with $ORCL OCS the $META verse RL or even $GOOG GCP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that support trillions in revenues that have little to nothing to do with AI. Ever experienced an AWS outage Literally nothing works without it. This is critical and foundational infrastructure. Core"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Leave it alone. $SPGI is the opportunity. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What is going on in the land of insurance brokers today No earnings no news brutal drawdowns: $WTW -13% $AJG -9.5% $AON -8.5% $MRSH -7% $BRO -7%"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Of course That aligns with my review as well. Brown & Brown and AJG both have a material presence in retail lines. Im also concerned by their unimpressive ROIIC. I got around 6% for each of them using [----] as a base. Marsh and Aon score much higher here (high teens to 20%) and sounds like their business models are more sophisticated. $AJG and $BRO go after volume and rely on local relationships between brokers and customers. $Aon $MRSH handle global systemic and catastrophic risks that are more complex and require analytics/consulting a local broker cant provide. I also wonder if Brown &"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I agree. Am framing the valuation like this The credit ratings and indices divisions alone will approach $4.75B in operating profit next year ( $4B net). This is your $MSCI $MCO equivalent that rightfully deserves 30x earnings. Thats where the market cap is today at $120B. And for kicks you get $2B in profits from Market Intel Energy and Mobility. Another way to frame it: If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [--] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [--] + (1/3) = [--] For 32%-45% margin businesses growing mid to high"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@_SeanDavid I dont disagree. Good thinking. Salesforce is also very profitable. Wonder what this looks like for a non profitable SaaS. Will check when I get back"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Curiousjorge65 Easy path to $100B and then $200B. Somewhere around there the market will put 30x on the whole thing"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Broadridge $BR is another financial services monopoly whose GAAP earnings understate their earnings power. Adjusting for depreciation and amortization that regularly overstate the cash needs of the business I get to at least $1.3B in TTM earnings. The business now trades at just 16x trailing earnings. The [---] WMA has been pierced for just the third time in a decade. Broadridges business is built on two pillars: Proxy Voting: $BR facilitates shareholder voting with a 99% market share of the bank and broker-dealer segment. Large regulatory barriers to entry. Trade Settlement: Processes over $10"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DimitryNakhla Which is your favorite Dimitry @long_equity what about you"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And even if theyre not guilty theyre coming back to reality. $TYL is a good example. Why in the world did this trade up to well over 100x earnings $VEEV is another. Not very familiar but no way it deserved 60x a year ago or 100x in [----]. Or $NOW at 100x last year. Cybersecurity is a group still trading up there. Obviously good companies and strong tailwind so it feels faux pas to say but those multiples leave a lot of room downward whenever the story changes $CRWD $PANW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I like Morningstar but how do you justify $650 for $TYL 58x for 9% growth. And thats after adjusting for SBC $Morn price target will probably follow the stock price lower as usual. This is why you cant outsource valuation. @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KoyfinCharts Ameriprise has repurchased over half its outstanding share count over the same period 👀 Its also the best performing in the S&P financial sector since it was spun out in [----] $AMP Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO"
X Link 2025-12-17T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So yes on the balance sheet strength But no on the multiples. The lowest multiple for any level of quality is $STZ at 12/13x. I wouldnt argue with a bid there. But $DEO and $BFB are each in the high teens. For low/no growth. Not worth mentioning commodities like $TAP. Would much rather own $ABEV where growth is still strong if I had to. The GLP1 and secular headwinds are real so it becomes tough to justify paying up for low/no growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159"
X Link 2026-01-19T23:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM I would think its hitting convenience stores Walgreens CVS 7/11 dollar tree and even dollar general in the areas Amazon offers it. $WBA $CVS $DLTR $DG $AMZN"
X Link 2026-02-07T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SayNoToTrading Not convinced either way myself but I think Id worry more about verisk than the exchanges. Insurers could cut verisk out one day but I dont think that options exists with ICE CME or LSEG. Do you see it differently"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@firstadopter Hard not to like S&P Global here @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3 @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@undrvalue I hired a cybersecurity business owner to build something for me. I asked what products hes a fan of and spouted off some big names ($crwd $panw) like I knew something. His answer was short. Sentinel One is the best"
X Link 2026-02-08T08:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DimitryNakhla I never understood the point of this software (I had a seat). Neither was it profitable. And that was before the development of AI as a threat. Why anyone has owned this over the last year is bizarre. CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CedarStResearch @invest091 The new app Provides personalized quotes in real time Is this really value add for commercial accounts I cant imagine AJG and Marsh are just providing quotes"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre right I am not. But I a finance man and curious. Monday didnt earn a profit before all of this. And they just guided down for [----]. The equity isnt worth the $10-$15B it somehow commanded and theres no reason to believe its worth its $5B market cap in [----]. Are you experienced in back end IT If a group of skilled and motivated developers made a replacement curated for a specific org would that product have relatively less bugs and maintenance requirements given its custom design I assume it may also be more enjoyable and friendly to use if it was made specifically for one company/team"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@gordocap18 AI will be president of the United States before a lender makes a $5B asset backed loan to a EBITDA shitco with paper rated by ChatGPT. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When would you consider it a bargain If its ROIIC wasnt infinite Id consider 20x fair and 25x a bit rich. $SPGI however can distribute all of that FCF yield and still grow with effectively no incremental capital. Its a 5% coupon that grows 10% now Were 20x today and 25x if you assume market intel segment goes to zero. 30x ratings and indices alone which is just two-thirds of earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PGorgey51003 I already replied to you here How many shares of $MNDY do you own @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheStalwart Just wait til Anthropic releases an app for oil @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63 https://t.co/oqlVUZVqVc @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%)"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The more I look at my portfolio the more I entertain reducing it to [--] positions. $AMZN $SPGI $MSFT $CP Competing for a fifth spot would be Berkshire and Meta $BRK.B $META @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is it fair question whether the SaaS model has failed Has not all of the value in SaaS accrued to the SWEs hidden as SBC Take $TEAM for instance a well distributed product set and a market cap that peaked at $125B. Their SBC wipes out more than 100% of the adjusted profits theyve ever made. Like a Portland co-op masquerading as an inclusive Walmart. The employees are the only ones benefitting. Who in their right mind values that at $100 Billion $SNAP is famous for this as well Reminds me of the original Berkshire Hathaway textile business. As buffet recites it all manufacturing improvements"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rafoholic @KobeissiLetter Yeah its a fat PEG still. I get that its a durable and strong business but the risk of technological displacement has to be non zero. Hard to justify 25-30x for the growth of a railroad that has a physically insurmountable moat. Or SPGI at 20x now. Amazon in the mid 20s"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@optimusbutler @LeoNelissen Thanks for sharing. The pricing power is good to see. Slowing growth is not. Sounds like Pepsi the last couple years. And Adobe"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Muzzlebuster @Ashton_1nvests Any write ups or materials on $BN you recommend"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The trade would be long NVDA (capex recipient) and short Msft (software and capex spend) But I dont trade so Im long Amzn for the decade own Meta and Msft too. Valuation is too compelling. Meta ad rev Azure and Microsoft unlikely to falter on CoPilot & office hard enough to blow its position https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that OpenAI had approved its first insurance app on ChatGPT. According to a report in Reinsurance News Tuio one of Spain's leading digital insurers has launched an app that lets consumers generate a personalized home insurance quote. Personal coverages are relatively simple and homogenous which could make it easier to develop AI"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the Mobility spin off. Unlike the rest of the market S&Ps earnings growth requires virtually no incremental capital. So if the FCF yield is 5% they can distribute ALL of that to shareholders and still grow EPS at a 10-14% CAGR (buybacks help here). This is part of what makes $SPGI a gem. Most businesses have to plow FCF"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:02Z [----] followers, 22.3K engagements
"@yummyCenturyEgg Could frame this as $SPGI and $MCO will leverage AI to widen their positions. Why would this lower the barrier to entry 08-today is a long time so interested in your perspective"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@FundamentEdge Would argue PayPal and Qualcomm as well Interesting to see a handful with 2% or higher revisions upward: ServiceNow Fico TakeTwo and Nasdaq among them"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If ChatGPT or Anthropic somehow does become the insurance agent of the future doesnt that make the data $VRSK even more valuable Market cap: $24B Owners earnings: $1B Operating margin: 44% Returns on capital: 30-40% $IAK $KIE $PGR $BRK.B $MRSH Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"be $ttd complain about $goog $meta every qtr complain about $amzn too get owned by a company called $app lovin Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] https://t.co/f25fVlIsVx Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Two thoughts. [--]. Good point. And this predates the IHS Markit and Refinitiv acquisitions when the earnings were a step higher in quality [--]. No guarantee this repeats. At 5% yield and little to no capital required to achieve 6-9% earnings growth reasonable to expect 10-14% CAGR from here. Could be better but dont be greedy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@joinyellowbrick If agents file taxes for us will they still use Intuit Saw you recommended in October. Thoughts changed"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For Amazon by far. They see unrelenting demand for a 35% margin business. Runways like that come maybe 1-3x in a lifetime. And people want them to do what exactly buy back stock at a 4% earnings yield And not capture 35% ROIC on AWS capacity thats backlogged to the GDP of Greece Build that shit. Clear path to $100B EBIT then $200B. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@qualtrim It was 100x actual earnings. Now its 50+ trailing 40x forward. Why should it trade any richer than that"
X Link 2026-02-13T08:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"That gave me a thought. If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@LeoNelissen Its still in excess of 20x forward. Those adjusted figures are crap"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You think youre smart when you say advisors arent worth a 1% fee. I used to say that. The alternative to an advisor is not a low cost S&P [---] fund. The alternative is speculative garbage and the destruction of capital. Tips from the barbecue. $AMC. $OPEN. $ULTY. $MSTY. Or sitting in cash for a decade. Average retail CAGRs were 2% BEFORE Robinhood and free trading came on the scene. Whatever your view on $HOOD being a casino vs a financial platform the following observation is stunning to me: If we include Januarys estimated loss of $(4-5)B Robinhoods customers have made very little money"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Guidance Miss for $TYL: guided for 7% organic growth in [----] Market Cap: $13 Billion Current Multiple: 28x Owner Earnings @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Any shareholders of Brookfield here Im looking for a thorough breakdown of the business (article Substack podcast etc) if anyone can share. Specially on $BN $BN $BAM $BIP $BEP $BEPC"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BR Broadridge ROIC: 18.5% [--] yr ROIIC: 15% Competitive position: Monopoly Morningstar moat rating: Wide [--] yr earnings CAGR: 15.7% Avg dividend yield: 1.5% Expected shareholder CAGR: 17.2% Multiple compression: Earnings + dividends have grown 327% since [----]. Total shareholder return has only been 203%. Recent drawdown: -35% Market cap: $20B TTM owners earnings: $1.3B TTM multiple: 15.5x 26-28 proj earnings growth: 10% CAGR Threats Possible but weak as of now: [--]. Brokers bringing proxy voting in house. Possibility: High Earnings at threat: 3-5% of earnings No visible threat to ballot"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@buccocapital Quite profitable like Salesforce and Adobe Maybe door #2. At least Salesforce has a chance at it"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] http://Monday.com http://Monday.com"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:04Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"@jiujitsu199 @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Any reason they cant send the compute to AWS Thats a scary thought. but in long run could be great if half our men werent sitting on screens and were out building things instead"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"None of this may be relative to your trade but I see almost 27x operating income 25x actual profits. Pull out the cash and its closer to [--]. Dont love that they dont see margin expansion in [--] but the growth is solid. Not sure how Id justify owning it over meta unless zuck/capex is a no go for some https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I see you were just sharing someone elses pick. How do you think of Jensens analogy to the calculator. Would AI rebuild the calculator or just use it Will AI recreate (or go around) platforms like Salesforce and Intuit or use them There probably still needs to be a UI for review and human input. We could say the agent will just recreate that but why when intuit is so good and pretty cheap already Would love to hear a counter or any thoughts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@joecarlsonshow REITs benefitted from [--] years of easy policy and falling rates which met their end with ZIRP. Today - REITs are a stable source of income for retirees at best. At worst they are leveraged bonds with interest rate risk and may fail to outpace the growth of the monetary base"
X Link 2024-05-26T07:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Quant_Kurtis Put a [--] year chart of the S&P next to a [--] year chart of USD"
X Link 2024-06-26T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@StockMKTNewz Apparently the Special Committee is preoccupied with other work that is ongoing. Unbelievable commentary from a board without an auditor and facing delisting"
X Link 2024-11-05T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Summing up todays call with $SMCI Liana (CEO) was optimistic and upbeat. However management neglected to provide any update on the search for a new auditor or their listing status on the Nasdaq. CFO David Weigand was curt and dismissive. Felt like a big 🖕 to investors. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss) for the qtr ended 9/30/24. $SMCI guides for non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 and revenue of $5.8B for the qtr ending 12/31/24. These are 20% below previous expectations. Shares down 50% since EY resignation. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of"
X Link 2024-11-05T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DividendDude_X $CNC is an opportunity here"
X Link 2024-11-18T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Centene ($CNC) is more compelling than any name here at 9x cash profits that are growing at 10% annually. Individual exchanges are more than offsetting Medicaid churn. New management team is aggressively repurchasing shares and insiders are buying as well. The [--] Best Risk-Reward Opportunities In The Stock Market Today: 👇 1) Google $GOOGL 2) Hims & Hers $HIMS 3) Celsius $CELH 4) Amazon $AMZN 5) Elevance Health $ELV 6) PepsiCo $PEP 7) High Tide $HITI 8) Hersheys $HSY 9) Meta Platforms $META 10) Crocs $CROX The [--] Best Risk-Reward Opportunities In The Stock Market Today: 👇 1) Google $GOOGL 2)"
X Link 2024-11-20T06:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Hard to do anything other than applaud Mileis performance so far. The quality of life in the developed world is owed to industrial innovation and entrepreneurial brilliance. Bureaucracy regulation and socialist regimes are not your friend. Impressive progress in Argentina Impressive progress in Argentina"
X Link 2024-11-21T05:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@marketplunger1 $PBR"
X Link 2024-11-21T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@thexcapitalist Wait why dont these reconcile to actual sales 30% of $650B for [----] cloud is $190B but Amazon only did $27.5B in Q3 AWS a $110B annual run rate. This suggests Amazons [----] AWS revenues and operating income will be far less than you are projecting. Thoughts"
X Link 2024-11-27T01:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SashInvesting Ituran is another one. Great management fortress balance sheet attractive valuation. $ITRN"
X Link 2024-12-01T09:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@buccocapital You can add at least two new markets to the list: GPU Server production: Nvidia AMD LLMs: Google Meta OpenAI"
X Link 2024-12-05T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BrianFeroldi ASML"
X Link 2025-01-09T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$PDD reported 24% revenue growth and $3.8B of net income for the quarter. Revenue missed expectations by about 4% and the stock shot down to $113 before a sharp reversal. You have to wonder if these purchases are being funded by the central bank. 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"That scenario is a catch [--]. I dont like the report and I dont think the market did either. This report from $PDD offered no obvious bright spots - JP Morgan"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"But if china is going to act as a put on the stock this limits the downside risk for investors. 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Now lets get to the elephant in the room: With $50B in cash why isnt $PDD repurchasing its shares Especially with the government now encouraging it. 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is introducing a tail risk of fraud in the minds of shareholders who begin to wonder if $PDD really has more money than $AAPL which has been aggressively repurchasing shares at three times the valuation. 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As a shareholder myself it is frustrating. $50B in cash earning 6% (actually not sure how theyre earning 6% btw) is great but rates are likely to decline sooner than later and the earnings yield on buying back stock is 9% (and tax-free). 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fundamentally $PDD is still attractively priced. Price to sales and forward earnings (11x) multiples are not demanding at all. The company is inexpensive both absolutely (DCF) and relatively (vs peers and historically). 🧵"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@thexcapitalist Yet they still dont make any money. The entire sector booms and they still have to adjust their income statement to show any earnings. Hard pass"
X Link 2025-03-23T08:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MichaelKantro VFLO continues to outperform. If you want intl exposure make sure its currency hedged. $IHDG $HSCZ"
X Link 2025-04-01T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While they were right that outsourcing our manufacturing would aid foreign industry they failed to realize or foresee that America would still house the best businesses just on the next frontiers. We may have lost the manufacturing of cars and shoes to china and Vietnam"
X Link 2025-04-04T07:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"But we built the Apples Nikes Nvidias and Lockheed Martins which designed the best computers sportswear semis and missiles. The majority of the most innovative and valuable businesses are all still here from Tesla to Uber to Amazon and Google Crowdsource and Palantir"
X Link 2025-04-04T07:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@HERMESINVEST1 Those are fake profits. AMD is hardly breaking even before adjustments"
X Link 2025-04-08T08:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@HERMESINVEST1 What are you talking about Xilinx was acquired in [----]. SBC is perpetual at AMD. There is nothing to see here. Even in the height of a semis boom $AMD still couldnt make money. Youre overpaying and will continue to trail Nvidia by a wide margin"
X Link 2025-04-08T11:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Same can be said for Costco. Sell it. Buy Amazon. $AMZN $COST $WMT $AMZN is trading at a lower P/E ratio than Walmart by a margin. Meanwhile Amazon: Dominant e-commerce platform leader in cloud computing third largest digital ad provider making its own AI chips. Walmart: Proudly selling groceries. Make it make sense. https://t.co/vZ2bWOZA0A $AMZN is trading at a lower P/E ratio than Walmart by a margin. Meanwhile Amazon: Dominant e-commerce platform leader in cloud computing third largest digital ad provider making its own AI chips. Walmart: Proudly selling groceries. Make it make sense."
X Link 2025-04-15T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KoyfinCharts @PodContrarian [--] of [--] have continued downward to new lows. Expedia and Amazon are the [--] that have appreciated"
X Link 2025-06-22T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My buddy is a senior business analyst at Intel. He just told me this: Worst case Ill become a pipefitter or electrician. Is this the future for white collar workers 🧵"
X Link 2025-07-10T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not good. Accenture is taking over all of operations Intel announced another massive layoff recently and is looking to Accenture to automate tasks and replace workflows. 🧵"
X Link 2025-07-10T01:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@biancoresearch The hedge funds own the guru index. Retail trades in and out of the retail index. The two are not the same. Guarantee average retail returns have not outperformed as always"
X Link 2025-07-17T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Bitcoin arbitrage opportunity: Kalshi implies a 36% chance $BTC $160k by year-end. Options market says 14% ($IBIT $90C 12/31 trading at $3). Trade idea: Buy [----] NO contracts on Kalshi at [--] Long $IBIT $80C 12/31/25 at $4.4 Anybody in on this already"
X Link 2025-07-20T02:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"51 out of [--] countries that reached sovereign debt levels of 130% of GDP ended up defaulting either through devaluation inflation restructuring or outright nominal default"
X Link 2025-07-20T18:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The memo to bond holders and currency holders was basically: "Thanks for playing try again next time." Its been even worse this time around even before accounting for #inflation. $ZROZ $TLT $IEF $USD bond holders are the suckers"
X Link 2025-07-20T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ftr_investors I own all four and think they are in fact the highest quality names with margins of safety. $TSM and $AMAT are likely still undervalued here as well"
X Link 2025-07-23T07:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TarekAntaki Add this from constellation (owner of Modelo and Corona brands)"
X Link 2025-08-07T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trump: Hes got us in a bad place. Did Jerome Powell legislate the US into 7% deficits Did the fed spend a dollar of the $37B of national debt It the US borrowing rate should be 1%. Meanwhile CPI is 3% and the deficit is 7% 👀 Good luck with that 🫡 Trump was clear he wants rates down to 1% because the U.S. has to rollover $9.5 trillion worth of short duration debt this fall. Rates don't enter a 2nd wave drop without an economic crisis. He's told you what's about to happen. https://t.co/zaQlOOnTPI Trump was clear he wants rates down to 1% because the U.S. has to rollover $9.5 trillion worth of"
X Link 2025-08-15T01:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SMCI this morning: We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting which could if not remediated adversely affect our ability to report our financial condition and results of operations in a timely and accurate manner $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss) for the qtr ended 9/30/24. $SMCI guides for non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 and revenue of $5.8B for the qtr ending 12/31/24. These are 20% below previous expectations. Shares down 50% since EY resignation. $SMCI expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 (beat) and revenue of $5.95B (miss)"
X Link 2025-08-29T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SMCI 🚩 🚩🚩 "We also cannot assure you that additional material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting will not arise or be identified in the future In English: Our books are cooked and we cant promise you wont find even more problems later"
X Link 2025-08-29T16:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ASML Here are [--] companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the worlds most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces https://t.co/XBcEIdOKZv Here are [--] companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the worlds most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces"
X Link 2025-09-01T21:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The case for Oracle to overtake leaders in the cloud market while exciting is shaky and discounts the fundamental advantages of the existing hyperscalers. Here is a dose of reality. $ORCL $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG 🧵 A new wave of AI investments is here and the winners this cycle wont look like the last. The cloud once dominated by $AMZN $MSFT and $GOOG is shifting rapidly. Two dynamics stand out: [--] Bare compute isnt enough anymore. - Raw infrastructure alone wont cut it. The https://t.co/yFevct6I7J A new wave of AI investments is here and the winners this cycle wont look like the last. The cloud"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As we now know Oracles historic RPO is concentrated to a $300B contract to provide OpenAI with [---] gW of compute. This creates a significant point of failure. If OpenAI consumes less compute than forecasted $ORCL could be left with expensive underutilized capacity. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Standing up $140B of capacity is another issue. Cloud providers are in a capital-intensive arms race and are still supply-constrained. Oracle's ability to provision power and monetize this capacity on schedule is not guaranteed. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Oracles ability to leverage its legacy database is an advantage but its not disrupting. With AWS Bedrock AI is run on data without lock in or migration. The full stack of strategic advantages offer comprehensive solutions and is why $AMZN is the leader. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MSFT The enterprise moat of Microsoft is unmatched. With AI integrated into Office [---] and the Azure-OpenAI partnership they have a direct path into the workflow of nearly every major corporation. This is a distribution model Oracle (and even Amazon) cannot replicate. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$GOOG Google Clouds competitive edge is in its silicon. Decades of R&D have yielded TPUs that offer distinct performance advantages for AI and ML workloads. This is a technological moat and nearly 90% of generative AI unicorns are already on GCP. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T08:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The hyperscalers are not being disrupted. While Oracles deal with OpenAI is massive meeting it will pose challenges of its own and it does not pose a fundamental shift in market power. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T09:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMZN $MSFT & $GOOG have enduring moats that will solidify their dominance: AWS: Unmatched scale versatility ecosystem the full-stack Microsoft Azure: Invaluable enterprise relationships software moat Google Cloud: Cutting-edge AI innovation proprietary silicon 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-11T09:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This works because you chose the optimal starting point when the official price of gold was illegitimate. Aug 1971: President Nixon officially ended the international convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold By 1980: the price of gold in USD had increased by 20x"
X Link 2025-09-12T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Gold is real purchasing power that is protected from inflation and the debasement of fiat currency. Gold is not productive capital like business equity. Over the last [---] years: Nominal returns: US equities: 10% CAGR Gold: 5% CAGR Real returns: US equities: 6-7% Gold: 1%"
X Link 2025-09-12T19:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 Aria our portfolios are very similar. Long Google Amazon ASML. Interested in your take here. Creative Cloud has network effects & switching costs but Im gauging if that will justify price as better tools emerge. How do you see market share for creative tools progressing"
X Link 2025-09-16T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why mine gold in South Africa or Brazil when you can run a pawn shop and have customers bring the gold to you $NEM $B $GDX ⛏107% since [----] $FCFS 👑 690% since [----] FirstCash ($FCFS) Pawn shop operator. [----] stores in US & Mexico. Brick and mortar retail ❌ Capital intensive ❌ Unlikely to have a moat ❌ Im out ✅ But look at the chart 📈 https://t.co/J5iWwxULXw FirstCash ($FCFS) Pawn shop operator. [----] stores in US & Mexico. Brick and mortar retail ❌ Capital intensive ❌ Unlikely to have a moat ❌ Im out ✅ But look at the chart 📈 https://t.co/J5iWwxULXw"
X Link 2025-09-19T07:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cloud Compute: Hyperscalers Amazon (AWS) Microsoft (Azure) Google Cloud They are the foundation and AI does not exist without compute from these [--]. Backlogs for their cloud services are now $700B. They literally cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-25T05:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Chip Designers / Accelerators $NVDA still dominant GPUs miles ahead of competitors & CUDA platform is embedded with customers. $AMD #2 has struggled to monetize AI so far. $AVGO Designs custom chips (like Googles TPU) has emerged as a key player. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-25T05:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Networking & Infrastructure $ANET leader in high-speed switching for AI clusters $CAT $URI $PWR $MTZ powering physical buildout of data centers + electrical grid By [----] data-center demand may outpace grid growth. Electricity will become the constraint🧵"
X Link 2025-09-25T05:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Some important caveats: LLMs themselves risk commoditization most value accrues to compute & distribution $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $NVDA $TSM location risk geopolitics in Taiwan Some novel areas (quantum GPU-cloud startups) are speculative ideas today. 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-25T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Practical takeaway: Hyperscalers - $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG = own distribution + monetize AI directly. $TSM + $ASML & peers = the bottleneck with wide moats $NVDA = still the leader in GPUs though competition risk rising. These are the best risk/reward skews 🧵"
X Link 2025-09-25T06:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The landscape is evolving rapidly but this is how to stack the odds: Own the bottlenecks (compute chips power). Stay diversified across the highest quality. Avoid chasing hype in speculative businesses. Full doc below if youre interested. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2025-09-25T06:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"AI complex but keep it simple: Own the core of compute (cloud chips power) Diversify across the highest quality Avoid hype & speculative businesses $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC $META $ANET $CAT $PWR Full doc👇 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_fXkJJV9U1ZyR89U5chzfMBfGEDrX8GRqG3WBNhBLDU/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2025-09-26T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@porterstansb Appreciate the post as I find the Chapwood index a good gauge of sticker price inflation. However equal weighting toothpaste and household rent is inappropriate for a measure of dollar-inflation and purchasing power"
X Link 2025-10-01T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@porterstansb A 17.5% discount rate Are we serious Persistent low single digit GDP growth + record fiscal is yet to exceed 8% makes that easy to dismiss. Yes the USD is debasing but not at 17% and not at the chapwood index. Coming from someone with a sizable gold position"
X Link 2025-10-01T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter We need as much computing power as we can possibly get OpenAI President Greg Brockman $AMD $OPENAI $NVDA"
X Link 2025-10-06T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter I think the whole industry right now is trying to really adapt to the amount of demand for AI services that we see coming over the next couple of years $AMD $NVDA $OPENAI $AVGO This is direct demand for cloud compute $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL"
X Link 2025-10-06T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter "What we're really seeing is a world where there's going to be absolute compute scarcity $TSMC $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $AMD $NVDA $AVGO How can we build in advance of this compute desert that we're heading towards otherwise." $OpenAI President Greg Brockman"
X Link 2025-10-06T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Want a peek into the lowest quality financial thought on the internet Search the ticker of any yieldmax security $MSTY $ULTY $NVDA $TSLY Quantum computing tickers $IONQ $QBTS $RGBTI and $OPEN are runners up"
X Link 2025-10-07T02:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Who is buying bars of gold at midnight on a fucking Tuesday $GLD $IAU"
X Link 2025-10-08T07:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Central banks continue to build gold as they diversify from fiat and dollar reserves"
X Link 2025-10-08T08:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Top purchasers of gold in 2025: [--]. Poland [--]. Azerbaijan [--]. Kazakhstan [--]. China [--]. Turkey"
X Link 2025-10-08T08:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Top sellers of gold: [--]. Uzbekistan [--]. Singapore [--]. Indonesia [--]. Russia [--]. Germany"
X Link 2025-10-08T08:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jewelry accounts for 44% of global gold demand Roughly a fourth of gold purchases are for investment purposes but this rises to nearly 50% if you consider central bank reserves a form of sovereign wealth"
X Link 2025-10-08T08:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterSchiff @CNBC But you were wrong. The S&P did not suffer a huge decline against gold. In fact the exact opposite occurred until very recently. Since this aired the S&P has appreciated 27% against gold. S&P [---] total return: 299% Gold total return: 215% $SPY $VOO $GLD"
X Link 2025-10-09T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Any surprise that central banks flipped to buyers of gold after the [--] GFC 👻 Ever since US policy has been to print its way out of crises and debase USD 🖨 Central banks want gold not dollars 📜 Equities gold real estate bitcoin 💰 Dont be the shmuck holding cash 💸"
X Link 2025-10-09T07:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""Lululemon is losing its soul" "They don't know how to how to attract or motivate creative talent" "Even worse they think they understand great product when they don't." - Lululemon Founder @ChipYVR $LULU Chip Wilson (Lululemon founder) takes out a full-page ad in WSJ to roast the brand https://t.co/rtPAnOQ2s8 Chip Wilson (Lululemon founder) takes out a full-page ad in WSJ to roast the brand https://t.co/rtPAnOQ2s8"
X Link 2025-10-09T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RihardJarc Meanwhile there is a concentration of demand. 99% of token spend comes from [--] customers according to the CEO of Groq and a third of spend just from OAI and Anthropic. OAI recent deals with $AMD $NVDA $ORCL imply financing may be getting harder to secure. 5/"
X Link 2025-10-09T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RihardJarc OpenAI plans for 26GW of capacity will cost it $1.5T it doesnt have. OpenAI is projected to burn $9B this year and $40B by [----]. Reminder: $1.5T is $1500B Hence $NVDA acting as a backstop and providing $100B structured as $10B for each GW OAI brings online 6/"
X Link 2025-10-09T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@RihardJarc More questions: Will OAI & Anthropic have reliable funding to scale as planned Who gains and who loses if they stumble $NVDA $AMZN $ORCL $MSFT Second and third order consequences could be far reaching as AI capex has reached 1% of #GDP and is rapidly gaining share. 12/"
X Link 2025-10-09T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RihardJarc This demand ultimately flows to data centers equipment & energy. Which pieces of the market have oligopolistic structure and who are the winners $EQIX $DELL Will substations transformers and cooling scale fast enough $NEE $ETR $ABB $ETN $VRT Would love feedback here 13/"
X Link 2025-10-09T22:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A piece of positive evidence supporting the useful life of GPUs in data centers coming from Microsoft Azure CEO Our hardware usually has a [--] to [--] year refresh cycle If still true this supports $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG reported earnings scrutinized below. Via @AlphaSenseInc @RihardJarc Read this from @RihardJarc The article is an excellent snapshot and analysis of AI infrastructure and financing including some major headlines: [--]. OpenAI plans imply $1.5T of capex [--]. $NVDA GPU depreciation likely being understated by $AMZN $NBIS $CRWV More takeaways: 👇 1/ @RihardJarc Read this from @RihardJarc The"
X Link 2025-10-10T06:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@StockMarketNerd And the whole time total $GOOG Search queries have been rising as the entire market expands. AI agents arent taking from traditional search. Theyre creating novel growth and paving new roads in the market. Google traffic has increased since ChatGPTs release not decreased"
X Link 2025-10-10T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 This capex creates very high margin cloud revenues that do not expire after one year. High ROI opportunities are often very limited. Finding one with a runway as long as AWS Azure GCP is a gold mine for $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT and most shareholders applaud the capital allocation"
X Link 2025-10-10T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Martin on Bitcoin: Bitcoins scarcity mechanism is not unique and can be replicated by other capped-supply cryptocurrencies unlike golds natural scarcity. Cryptographic design is a security risk & could compromise private keys within one to two decades. 1/2 https://t.co/raean3ZaT7 https://t.co/raean3ZaT7"
X Link 2025-10-10T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin doesnt have an army Without centralized authority or sovereign backing Bitcoin remains exposed to geopolitical and regulatory pressures that pose existential risks. Bitcoin is inherently speculative. Going all-in is reckless. #btc #bitcoin $IBIT $MSTR $BMNR"
X Link 2025-10-11T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@theallinpod While everyone is waiting on AWS Azure and GCP for compute $AMZN $MSFT & $GOOG are waiting on $TSM Unlike fiber in the late 90s racks of $NVDA GPUs $MU HBM and $INTC / $AMD CPUs are sold out before TSM etches a single wafer"
X Link 2025-10-11T01:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 Fair points. They are no longer the asset-light businesses of [----]. As long as the backlogs remain robust I expect hyperscalers to retain pricing power but Im watching this + the server useful life (about [--] years per Azure CEO) as my $AMZN thesis is built on AWS margins"
X Link 2025-10-11T01:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RihardJarc Spoke to a contact @ Google tonight & confirmed demand for A100s is persistent $NVDA released the A100 in May [----]. Over [--] years later $GOOG is still monetizing them in cloud contracts Longer useful lives are huge boons for $AMZN & $MSFT ROI on GPUs @RihardJarc any thoughts"
X Link 2025-10-11T08:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@compoundingcap1 You may be right and the margins suggest so. If I were a shareholder Id be concerned. As an Amazon shareholder I dont like the flooding of supply to the market but theres a lot of execution risk of course. I think demand runway supply even if OAI & ORCL execute"
X Link 2025-10-11T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@APompliano @philrosenn Defining bitcoin as the measure of purchasing power is a dishonest take. Nobody buys anything in bitcoin ever. Since [----] the purchasing power of gold has increased against most assets including real estate wages food and energy. Long btc but short bad takes like this"
X Link 2025-10-13T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@rev_cap Ever heard of AWS"
X Link 2025-10-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Barchart Gold charts of all time periods are starting to look identical 1Y 10Y 25Y charts of Gold: $GLD $IAU"
X Link 2025-10-15T18:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@borrowed_ideas Jarc is right to point out that the useful life may be compressing as product cycles quicken - and even more so in a world of limited power. Will be paying attention to these developments at AWS and their peers. Thanks for sharing I enjoyed the read very much"
X Link 2025-10-16T04:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JerryCap $MELI"
X Link 2025-10-16T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@brubarian Which comprises the majority of Booz Allen contracts. Seeing AI at 6% of rev is impressive and a huge tailwind imo as I dont see any operational gains coming from AI without the likes of Deloitte Accenture Booz Allen SAIC Leidos etc"
X Link 2025-10-16T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mply_cap Very impressive portfolio for someone so young. Withstand the volatility and these businesses will compound favorably. I own a few names here including [--] of the top 3"
X Link 2025-10-17T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lmao what's gonna happen do the packers forfeit By rule they have to kick a PAT"
X Link 2012-09-25T03:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing