# ![@ChrisEconomist Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1499192982414966784.png) @ChrisEconomist Chris Richardson

Chris Richardson posts on X about inflation, money, in the, australia the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation), [money](/topic/money), [in the](/topic/in-the), [australia](/topic/australia), [debt](/topic/debt), [rise](/topic/rise), [has been](/topic/has-been), [rates](/topic/rates), [official](/topic/official), [the good](/topic/the-good)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Whos up for a fireside chat The world has never seen policy tighten so fast interest rates have surged all over the world while COVID support from governments has dried up. Thats why most economists expect recessions in some key nations in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1617310864364933120)  2023-01-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZacGross Excellent discussion. My only thought is that it has always been better to set the Major Bank Levy rate at closer to the funding advantage that the big banks get from being too big to fail. That has always been closest thing we have to a rent tax in the federal sphere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1625000869795368960)  2023-02-13T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZacGross That could potentially add $4.5 to $5 bn a year in federal revenues based on sound tax theory and practice without having to rejig too many of the RBA funding band-aids put in place for the banks during COVID"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1625001273828474881)  2023-02-13T05:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GrattanInst @BrendanCoates @joeybmoloney There's a lot to like here including the recommendations - well done But worth noting we cld save the budget almost as much with one measure alone - not raising compulsory super from today's 10.5% up to 12%. The system is broken yet we're on track to make it even bigger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1642500499307102211)  2023-04-02T12:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reserve Bank dilemma . Marvellous news on monthly inflation rate says hold But the huge queue for TayTay tickets says still lots of people with lots of money to burn meaning that it'll be hard for the RBA to shake inflation off "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1673868614154452993)  2023-06-28T01:39Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements


"That sort of shuffling is what the [----] Commission of Audit tried to stop. Clearly it failed both sides still do it when it suits. Were the federal govt to be a publicly-listed business it would rightly get a thumping for such window dressing moves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674631939276550145)  2023-06-30T04:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SECOND the figures are a reminder of how lucky the Lucky Country has been conditions have thrown money at the taxman Partly thats as war drove up commodity prices & partly its as inflation took money from the punters & placed it into the pockets of the govt (& of business)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674632553305874432)  2023-06-30T04:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So umm no thats not a trillion. In fact the figures in the budget implied that net debt was on a trajectory to hit a trillion dollars in the early 2040s. That's not what the public understands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1674633995827703808)  2023-06-30T04:29Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"FOURTH it also isnt what those involved in budgetary debates understand either. The bad news that's coming isnt as bad as many think it is Compare the pair. The 1st chart is where Treasury forecast the budget was headed in underlying (structural) terms in October 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674634975600312320)  2023-06-30T04:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And the following chart is the updated view in the May budget. The current view suggests that weve already solved the budget challenges of the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674635311656370176)  2023-06-30T04:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Pretty good huh The latter chart is the least understood part of the current national policy debate. Why was there such a huge improvement The biggest contributor was that Treasury hadnt fully allowed for the impact of war and inflation on the nations finances"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674635916277858305)  2023-06-30T04:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Most people still dont realise federal debt is back below where it was before COVID hit Check out this chart In Jan [----] pre-COVID net debt was $430.2 bn & calendar [----] nominal GDP was just over $2 trn ($2008 bn) for a net debt ratio of 21.4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1675623591138955265)  2023-07-02T21:52Z [----] followers, 40.7K engagements


"In May [----] net debt was $516.7 bn & nominal GDP in the yr to March [----] was just over $2.5 trn ($2503 bn) for a net debt ratio of 20.6% Thats truly remarkable Yes debt went up but it didnt grow as fast as the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1675623694545321984)  2023-07-02T21:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@michellegrattan @ConversationEDU Yes - the [----] reforms swung the pendulum too far Despite what the public think we don't pay our politicians enough We then used to partially make up for that mistake via overly generous superannuation Now we don't "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1679288462720270336)  2023-07-13T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If I wanted to dump things that don't stack up from Victoria's 'to do' list the #CommonwealthGames wouldn't be at the top of the list. There's a much more costly much dumber elephant out there . https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/andrews-urged-to-re-examine-pwc-s-suburban-rail-loop-analysis-20230711-p5dnby https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/andrews-urged-to-re-examine-pwc-s-suburban-rail-loop-analysis-20230711-p5dnby"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1681092435047510016)  2023-07-18T00:04Z [----] followers, 52.2K engagements


"The fight against inflation is global & the global news on inflation is getting better much faster than most people realise. My latest in the Fin: Inflation starts when demand runs ahead of supply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683343924394602497)  2023-07-24T05:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And it keeps going when it gets baked in: when people expect it to keep going. But theres good news on both fronts. The first is that people dont expect inflation to hang around. Central banks may have got it wrong of late but they have a long track record of "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683344052522205189)  2023-07-24T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". getting it right of keeping inflation on a tight rein that stretches back decades. Thats vital because it gives people confidence that inflation will be wrestled down this time. And although demand hasnt slowed much the other good news is that supply has picked up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683344158898163712)  2023-07-24T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The bad news on demand hogs the headlines but the good news on supply has transformed the inflation outlook. I dont just mean lower freight energy and other commodity prices and the disappearance of COVID from discussions about global supply chains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683344232227155970)  2023-07-24T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In particular Australias participation rate has edged to record highs. Thats very good news. Rising supply is a much happier solution to inflation than demand destruction and Australias job market is showing its supply strength in spades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683344304226586625)  2023-07-24T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thats why the forecasts of Treasury and the RBA both of whom see unemployment rising to 4.5% are looking too pessimistic. And its why inflation is set to fall faster than most yet realise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683344334501085184)  2023-07-24T05:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tomorrow's inflation data will underscore something important: inflation is coming down fast even tho unemployment hasn't gone up. (It hasn't risen at all in Aust & it's gone up much less than expected elsewhere) Why Check out my latest in the Fin which points out "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1683581643834130435)  2023-07-24T23:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not perfect but not bad and clearly better than expected Couldn't rule out one more rate rise But either way official interest rates are now either at or very near their peak (Tho the mortgage refinancing cliff means the pain from them yet to peak)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1684019199054856192)  2023-07-30T09:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The RBA opted for no rate rise. And on my view therell be no further rate rise to come in this cycle official interest rates in Australia have now peaked. That also means the RBA is happy to double down on what has to date been a successful gamble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1686233253030846464)  2023-08-01T04:31Z [----] followers, 15K engagements


"@swrighteconomy Deflation is here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1686238748282085376)  2023-08-01T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Australia has a competition problem we need to fight. Our worsening competitive landscape squeezes the wages you earn & it pads the prices you pay But its too simple to blame bosses & businesses for the inflation of the moment My latest in the SMH / Age"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1689468065451511808)  2023-08-10T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So no I dont sign on to the view that Australias inflation is explained by greedflation But why have profits soared when wages havent There are some specific drivers of that including the impact of war on resources profits That aside tho I blame opportunity not evil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1689468257621934080)  2023-08-10T02:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Second Like it or not Australias sluggish wage growth is part of the reason why official interest rates look set to peak earlier and lower here than in many other places. Yep thats happening too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1691349724266414080)  2023-08-15T07:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". of reports (Intergenerational Reports or IGRs) have tried to look ahead to see if there were threats to the sustainability of the nations social compact with ourselves As they look at the budget these reports have to look at the backdrop to the budget too our economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1693122961560268880)  2023-08-20T04:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There are already stories around about what the latest IGR will say when it is released on Thursday. And Ive written a newspaper opinion article about that (probably released on Wednesday). My article concentrates on the economic implications of the new report especially about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1693123045471478157)  2023-08-20T04:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Here's a chart of the humungous differences in the current view versus that in the [----] IGR Those differences are eye-popping (see the chart below) Why did that happen It was due to any decision by any politician. (Both this govt and the last have added to budget costs)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1694545056349466720)  2023-08-24T02:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RizviAbul That eye-boggling difference in debt came about as . - Our recovery from COVID was faster & stronger than expected - A surge of inflation takes money from the pockets of punters & hands it to the taxman - Putin's invasion of Ukraine raised prices the world pays us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1694552251673849915)  2023-08-24T03:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The IGR lays out a range of challenges - as it should But not sure people realise how much our starting point has changed The [----] IGR thought net debt this yr wd be 40.4% of national income. This IGR says 22.3% this yr We face the future MUCH better placed than we'd thought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1694586313323004147)  2023-08-24T05:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@michael_read_ . if it weren't for an agreement hammered out in recent months the cost to the feds of the NDIS was projected to rise to over 6% of national income - more than they spend on health However to date we simply have a plan to have a plan The largest cut to any spending program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1694625489804214775)  2023-08-24T08:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@michael_read_ . in Oz ever remains very unclear That's unfair on the nation's disabled AND unfair on the nation's taxpayers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1694625702203785363)  2023-08-24T08:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Not perfect but pretty bloody good I've said for a while that the Reserve Bank was done and dusted with rate rises and today's numbers make that even more likely https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1696716212519289134)  2023-08-30T02:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If we want the airlines to treat their customers better then incentives matter much more than individuals Alan Joyce going early doesnt matter What matters is the bad rules and regulations Australian governments of both sides have put in place over many years practically "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1699167649383747743)  2023-09-05T21:08Z [----] followers, 22K engagements


"FINALLY we need to stop giving politicians and public servants the wrong incentives. The nation has been far too nice to Qantas with the result that Qantas gets away with being less-than-nice to the travelling public. Why do we make such dumb decisions in aviation policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1699168221138731426)  2023-09-05T21:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Its unclear but granting Qantas Chairmans Club membership to politicians & (even worse) to dept heads & senior public servants doesnt help them make unbiased decisions Thats gotta stop Remember changing individuals doesnt matter. Changing incentives does Its time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1699168476018233436)  2023-09-05T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Worth a reminder the economy continues to grow faster than official forecasts (RBA & Tsy) expected & that inflation continues to fall faster then they thought Yes there's a notable slowdown & it'll get worse before it gets better But so far so good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1699245584560066965)  2023-09-06T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMFScottP & remember this decision punishes Australian travellers much more than it punishes Qatar Airways - it cements higher prices & lower quality (The latter because the less the competition the greater the ability of airlines to treat their customers badly) Still seems silly to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1699594935371207004)  2023-09-07T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You may be wondering why we seem to always talk about GST reform but never actually do it My latest in the AFR discusses exactly that: In brief politics of GST reform are cruelly complicated and the economics arent as good as people think they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1701391901222658284)  2023-09-12T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"But that absolutely doesnt mean Australia should give up on the idea of reforming our economy in order to lift our living standards It simply says that there are smarter reforms to pursue ones that have a bigger bang for our living standards BUT ALSO come at less cost "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1701392041849323822)  2023-09-12T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


". in lost votes to the politicians who have the courage to champion them The best tax reform wd be to swap out one state property tax (stamp duty) for another (land tax) That could add about four times as much to living standards (0.8% versus 0.2% for a typical GST reform)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1701392256388006009)  2023-09-12T00:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JeromeFahrer Fair point Jerome - but there's only so much complexity I can fit into a [---] word article"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1701398745919992018)  2023-09-12T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@IFM_Economist . there are smart and logical GST changes to be done. But too many people seem to think 'reform' solely means 'tax reform' and that 'tax reform' solely means a higher GST and cuts to other taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1701430589558321409)  2023-09-12T03:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Its a nerd thing but A Reserve Bank chart is getting a lot of airplay right now And I think its misleading Heres the chart Not surprisingly people look at it and say that investment is near a three decade low And if true thatd be a problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1702092652274208990)  2023-09-13T22:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For example it absolutely is not in the nations interest to put roadblocks in the way of either approaching your old clients or your old team members Sorry business world it just isnt So when PwC is reportedly telling departing senior staff "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1702540684463669723)  2023-09-15T04:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"they will be unable to work with clients that any partner in their business unit had provided with advice or services in the past three years that provides a minor boost to PwC but comes at a considerable cost to Australia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1702540753824829539)  2023-09-15T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"(And yes PRRT is a rent tax not a revenue tax. But we have data for revenues in a way that we dont for rent.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705081130335289428)  2023-09-22T04:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As a nation weve truly madly deeply stuffed up taxing our gas riches (Mozambique does it better than we do) The good news is that the government has announced PRRT reforms The bad news is that those reforms mostly mean we get money earlier (rather than more money)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705083076744032475)  2023-09-22T04:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The budget has whirred back into surplus with such bewildering speed that much of the nations conversation about our fiscal finances bears little or no resemblance to the actual current numbers . (1) But what about net debt - Debt is back to June [----] in dollar levels "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705734826194870778)  2023-09-24T00:04Z [----] followers, 23.6K engagements


"Are there lingering implications of these changed numbers Yes and no None of the above changes the basic budget story good now challenging later. But the good now part of that story has been much bigger than Treasury expected and its lasted much longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705735733515088312)  2023-09-24T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"In fact its still going. And the challenging later is still challenging just not as challenging as it was. What are the policy implications Heres one. My objection to the Stage [--] tax cuts is that theyre too big"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705735883721453854)  2023-09-24T00:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(Yes theyre also unfair but thats always been hugely exaggerated.) So Ive therefore long recommended trimming Stage [--] keeping the 37% rate from $120000 to $200000 (thereby reducing the cost of the cut by a bit more than 40%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705736008372015577)  2023-09-24T00:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interest rates went up fast But theyll go down slow Heres my latest in the Fin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1706436273379119418)  2023-09-25T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Why will interest rates be slow to fall Two reasons wages and prices. WAGES have fallen a long way behind prices. But thats temporary a result of a wage system that by design is set in concrete. The next phase will see wages catch back up to prices as they should"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1706436393504035131)  2023-09-25T22:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"(Ive often talked about the merits of Stage [--] and how theyve changed over time. But that's not what I'm looking at here.) This is the simple point that as a nation weve programmed initial relief to flow to taxpayers rather than debtors. It is what it is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1706436966412370382)  2023-09-25T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yet theres another implication here one I didnt have time to explore in my article. If: (1) wages are entering a longish period of growing faster than prices (2) interest rates stay high for some time and (3) Chinas slowdown leaches strength from commodity prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1706437063699296718)  2023-09-25T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The latest federal budget numbers are out monthly results for July and August Summary thoughts: [--]. The trend is still our friend [--]. But thats starting to be because of personal taxes rather than profit taxes [--]. A surplus this financial year looks increasingly likely "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710134275646063050)  2023-10-06T03:25Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements


"4. No politicians didnt cause the budgetary good news [--]. Yes they continue to spend some of the windfalls of the moment with net new policy costs [--]. No making permanent policy promises off the back of temporary budgetary good news isnt smart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710134433968431527)  2023-10-06T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7. In the govts defence its net policy costs (about $34 bn to date over the [--] yrs to 2025-26) are smaller than past mistakes THE TREND IS STILL OUR FRIEND Over the year to August the surplus last seen at $22.1 bn over the year to June has lifted further to $26.7 bn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710134776634769814)  2023-10-06T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So refunds in July & Aug this yr down 20% ($3.6 bn) vs last yr. That's not a surprise in terms of the numbers. But it points to changing dynamics on the politics. The budget improvement has been coming from the pockets of the world (paying us century-and-a- half highs) and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710136915494830113)  2023-10-06T03:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". from the pockets of the punters. Total personal taxes across Jul & Aug $11 bn more than the matching [--] mths of [----] So the 'who pays' of the budget improvement is bending more to families than it has been (Across the period the RBA has paused budget policy has sprinted)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710137731157025256)  2023-10-06T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A SURPLUS OF SURPLUSES On Budget night in May I said we "may well" see another surplus this fin yr That looks increasingly on the cards Yes long term govt interest rates have roared since May & if sustained that'll add about $6bn to net interest bill by a decade from today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710138742550483007)  2023-10-06T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"But the outperformance of commodity prices seems set to do the trick for another surplus Certainly the July and Aug tax take says that But so do August export revenues for Aust (a leading indicator) & forecasters are dialling up expectations for iron ore & thermal coal prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710139337646698751)  2023-10-06T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Basically govt decisions across the [--] yrs to 2025-26 have added about $61 bn to spending and $37 bn to taxes for a net worsening in the budget balance of around $34 bn (I've added about $3.5 bn in recent costs to the Table of Truth data)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710141235661607163)  2023-10-06T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Or in other words the official data says that we're in surplus despite our politicians not because of them (Same as they said under Costello) To be fair a worsening of around $34 bn over a [--] yr period isn't that bad But it certainly isn't in the right direction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1710142032415760596)  2023-10-06T03:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There are many calls for the government to do something about the cost of living in the wake of the referendum result Yet theres a problem with that While the politics of doing something are good the economics are bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1713642145020830159)  2023-10-15T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thats because doing something typically involves giving people money to help them juggle the pain of cost pressures Yet extra government money going into an economy that still has an inflation struggle hurts as much as it helps Why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1713642243586969802)  2023-10-15T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Because the extra assistance gets spent and that just adds to inflationary pressures More challenging still Australia has less wriggle room on fighting inflation than most other countries Thats because $21 bn of tax cuts arrive in little more than [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1713642396477763691)  2023-10-15T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And while inflation has been coming down fast and thats marvellous recent US inflation data looks a bit more challenging and next weeks CPI release will show the same for Australia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1713642553885810743)  2023-10-15T19:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Check out my latest article in the SMH & the Age There's two main points How much pain families are feeling How hard it is to help ease that pain without adding to inflation & interest rates Yes those two points sit uncomfortably with each other"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1714364070802178474)  2023-10-17T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"theyd be waving it like mad and theyd have been doing that for decades. But they dont which is why helping out in a cost of living crisis is so complicated. The best way to do it is to spend on those who need help while avoiding the risk of a worsening in inflation "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1714364522130260399)  2023-10-17T19:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


". and another hike in interest rates by cutting other spending and/or raising taxes. So the govt could for example boost rent assistance and the lowest welfare payments and pay for that by trimming the stage [--] tax cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1714364650882810171)  2023-10-17T19:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Data just out shows Australias birth rate remains under pressure Australian women are having fewer children and having them later in life Economics is part of that story including the cost of living pressures of the moment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1714440671006961870)  2023-10-18T00:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Cheat sheet for the inflation numbers coming at 11.30am today: 1.1% or above on underlying inflation (the 'trimmed mean') in the September quarter - expect one more rate hike from the RBA coming sooner rather than later 0.9% or below - sleep easy 1% exactly - not sure "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1716945710925685073)  2023-10-24T22:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ouch that hurts There's another rate rise coming and it'll probably spoil your Melbourne Cup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1716976115221487844)  2023-10-25T00:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SHamiltonian Yep The Reserve Bank is set to spoil many Melbourne Cup parties "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1716990202085019671)  2023-10-25T01:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Middle Australia is letting out an anguished why in response to the thought that todays inflation number means at least one more interest rate rise [--] recent developments stand out One is the [--] October Hamas attack on Israel. That threatens ongoing energy price pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1717002547410637236)  2023-10-25T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One is market view that rates will stay higher for longer. As recently as early September [--] yr US govt borrowing costs were 4%. Now 4.8% & attempts to fight cost-of-living pressure being stymied. Great example in inflation numbers: child care providers pocketed half of the new federal subsidy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1717003053373772206)  2023-10-25T02:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I worry a lot about Australias ability to fight the next crisis. Partly thats because we now live in a more volatile world extreme events are happening more regularly in climate in geopolitics in health and in economies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1718392603430064525)  2023-10-28T22:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As a nation weve truly madly deeply stuffed up taxing our gas riches The good news is that the government has announced PRRT reforms The bad news is those reforms mostly mean we get money earlier (rather than more money) The even worse news is that "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720284510477246568)  2023-11-03T03:39Z [----] followers, 56.4K engagements


". the tax take will pick up again next month Yet even allowing for that key caveat Australians are being dudded We should have genuine reform on the table But we dont because both sides are in a scrap over who will win marginal electorates in WA Aaagghhh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720285095402348761)  2023-11-03T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"How we tax gas in Australia is broken Thats because weve allowed tax deductions that are way too generous The governments suggested bandaid is to slow the speed at which those deductions can be claimed But thats like telling the kids theyll be banned from eating "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1721380930684866868)  2023-11-06T04:16Z [----] followers, 14K engagements


"Australias Reserve Bank has been doing it differently raising rates less than seen in other nations Its been doing that with the aim of causing less damage to our economy / unemployment But that approach comes at the cost of a slower drop in inflation here than elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1721738118825714061)  2023-11-07T03:55Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements


"The huge migration numbers of the moment are mostly a one off & our immigration gets an undeservedly bad rap Bigger isnt better its just bigger. But getting the right migrants especially young skilled migrants can raise living standards by boosting participation & "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1724501878099370350)  2023-11-14T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


". productivity with those gains spread to those already here through a range of channels Yet right now weve blown up the everything else that should accompany a strong migration intake. Australias population was growing by almost a Canberra a year ahead of COVID but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1724502074656989217)  2023-11-14T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@peter_tulip I plead guilty your honour And yes I know I'm arguing that a second wrong (hurting migration policy) will help undo some of the impact of the first wrong (housing policies) And I've agonised over that Yet the fixes needed in housing policies will be so slow & so tortuous "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1724505923526570420)  2023-11-14T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A good article Australia needs to have better discussions and debates about change not just in our taxes but also in our spending our regulations and in a range of areas One small thing to note though GST isnt doing what it used to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1725267175135760449)  2023-11-16T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some thoughts on housing - Australia's misery machine #QandA https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-21/foreign-uni-student-cap-australia-housing-crisis-qa/103129118 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-21/foreign-uni-student-cap-australia-housing-crisis-qa/103129118"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1726706219866562794)  2023-11-20T20:56Z [----] followers, 29.3K engagements


"@BenPhillips_ANU . of an impact that impact would still be very much needed at that time Bottom line I hate having to suggest winding back population levels relative to current trends. Weve messed up housing much more than weve messed up population"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1726797519471214663)  2023-11-21T02:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BenPhillips_ANU But our housing repair is likely to take so painfully long that I think we need to lean on demand and to start doing that now cos it also takes ages to flow thru"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1726797566942294468)  2023-11-21T02:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Thoughts from Gerard Minack that are similar to mine Gerard's words - "Over the past [--] years governments have not invested enough in building the schools roads hospitals and housing required to compensate for population growth." My words last week - "weve blown up the everything else that should accompany a strong migration intake. Australias overall population was growing by almost a Canberra a year ahead of COVID but even then we werent adding anything like a Canberra a year worth of well-located housing let alone schools hospitals or roads.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1727292105884889331)  2023-11-22T11:45Z [----] followers, 16K engagements


"(6) I differ with Grattan a bit. Yes these fees shd go to $2500 ASAP. But announced now & implemented in a yr they need to go to $5000 for a time (7) I also agree on shorter post-study work visas cracking down on dodgy colleges & changing rules for backpackers in regions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1729283268753908094)  2023-11-27T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"No that list of policies wont solve things overnight because nothing can. Even with perfect policies the misery machine has too much momentum for it to be stopped any time soon. But weve created an intergenerational disaster and we need to start fighting back against it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1729283351788540226)  2023-11-27T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Nice 🙂 https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1729661689958707240)  2023-11-29T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PhilGould15 @PhilGould15 Gus it's a stunning opportunity for the NRL and it's an even bigger one for Australian foreign policy There's a competition for the hearts and minds of the Pacific and this is a simple and smart way forward for both Australia and PNG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730067194867077304)  2023-11-30T03:32Z [----] followers, 16.8K engagements


"That continuing conservatism will mean Treasurys upward revenue revisions will be smaller than mine. Just remember that when they announce theirs that doesnt mean those forecasts are right or that mine are wrong. It just means the official numbers have been updated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730437568486068723)  2023-12-01T04:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Despite all that good news the budget position is probably already as good as it gets. As at October [----] the latest numbers available the surplus was $25.8 billion over the past year and the chart earlier shows its been stalled at around that level for six months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730437678397849813)  2023-12-01T04:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Altho Im focused on recent months the stalling in the surplus take a moment to check the chart The budget recovery has been so head-snappingly fast that it's left pundits worried about things that are now much less of a worry. Lazarus eventually got that triple bypass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730438115876356212)  2023-12-01T04:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The further improvements in the budget bottom line are also continuing to revolutionise the outlook for debt Some context is handy here: A burst of inflation is magnificent for borrowers as they get to pay back what they owe in depreciated dollars"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730468119066628194)  2023-12-01T06:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As govts are big borrowers theyre huge beneficiaries from inflation So while many spooked by COVID costs have talked lots about debt the news has been getting better fast It's even better still in Oz where a resources boom has sent the budget back into surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730468417684340973)  2023-12-01T06:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The make-up of the budget surplus is changing. Comparing the first [--] mths of 2023-24 to the matching mths of 2022-23 personal taxes are up 18% vs a yr ago spending taxes are up 6% while profit taxes are flat The chart points to an increasingly volatile political backdrop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730504070891503770)  2023-12-01T08:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


". allowing the nation to halve our net debt at a stroke. And its part of the reason why NSW just canned its mini-me version of the Future Fund. Yet theres a wider issue here: are governments managing risk and their balance sheets well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730531167106199762)  2023-12-01T10:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Remember governments federal and state collect & spend about a third of national income. If the govt were a business it would ask itself whats the best way to run our balance sheet Even though state borrowing saw our public sector bal sheet (assets + liabs incl debt)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730531476821987444)  2023-12-01T10:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". worsen during COVID (not federal borrowing net debt is a smaller share of national income today than it was pre-COVID) our overall public sector balance sheet is in hugely better shape than those in most other nations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730531580689739919)  2023-12-01T10:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Govts should be conservative in the risks they take. Yet in practice theyre too conservative Thats as ministers and their depts are hugely risk averse they dont want a front page story saying theyve stuffed up and lost taxpayers some money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730532265959293270)  2023-12-01T10:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Bottom line We dont take enough risk with the national public sector balance sheet But we never will as politicians face incentives to make them less willing to take risks than they should be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730532438961774762)  2023-12-01T10:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"But it would be downright dumb to close down the key risk we do take via the Future Fund. Even in a higher interest rate environment I think that would be a backward step"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1730532463531995503)  2023-12-01T10:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Back in May the govt announced that it was going to make the largest ever cut to a single program in the history of the Commonwealth Specifically the budget announced two separate-but-related measures to reduce NDIS spending: The first saved $15bn over [--] yrs "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1732463063838978226)  2023-12-06T18:12Z [----] followers, 26.6K engagements


"The budget moves because of two things  the decisions of politicians and the swings in the economy People often forget that second factor and assume all changes in the budget are due to the pollies There are times when that mistake is unfair"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734333327145157083)  2023-12-11T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(commodity prices such as iron ore are higher than budgeted) while good news on jobs (part of which is due to stronger-than-expected migration) is also boosting the personal tax take. The bottom line is a better bottom line. Ahead of the election (the [----] PEFO) "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734735731200045237)  2023-12-13T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Treasury expected that the four years to 2025-26 would see deficits of $224 billion. The current estimate last years surplus plus the new forecasts is for deficits of $33bn over the four years to 2025-26. The chart below steps thru what happened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734735871084257484)  2023-12-13T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The first column (in red) shows we started with an estimated $224bn in deficits But Tsy had hugely underestimated the boost to taxes from war and inflation theyve now added back an $320bn to expected revenues (the 2nd column in green)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734736077062012984)  2023-12-13T00:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On the other hand there have been decisions to increase taxes. The fifth column in green shows those decisions (such as the changes to taxing superannuation balances over $3mn) have improved the budget bottom line by $28bn over the four years to 2025-26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734736395057733642)  2023-12-13T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Add all those up & we have the new deficit projection of $33bn over the [--] yrs to 2025-26. (Remember that includes last years surplus.) Whats the summary There has been an enormous shift in the budget"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734736541069787636)  2023-12-13T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AvidCommentator @lakitukl I'd be 100% sure both RBA & Tsy have Stage [--] in all their forecasts incl their inflation forecasts Tsy sees less inflation than RBA & hopefully that turns out to be true - if high income earners spend their Stage [--] that'd be an unfortunate inflation challenge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1734793361968795725)  2023-12-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Jobs are up interest rates are down and I got to eat my favourite corn chips today. That's [--] out of [--] - today is a good day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1735162676865831105)  2023-12-14T04:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SOME THOUGHTS ON [----] AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR [----] [----] had two big surprises for economists The first was that interest rates didnt slow economies as much was expected The second was that inflation came down pretty fast anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1737358041715237103)  2023-12-20T06:23Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements


"The resilience of the world economy in the face of an enormous and pretty much global increase in the cost of money is the main reason why the wave of recessions forecast at the start of [----] didnt happen Resilience was the true word of the year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1737358124137476164)  2023-12-20T06:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Partly that's as many people had savings to tide them thru Partly it was as interest rates only affect some families & businesses rather than all of them But (& I speak with the benefit of hindsight) mostly it was our spending is less interest rate sensitive than it used to be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1737358332502086041)  2023-12-20T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I think changing Australia is harder than it used to be Here's one of the reasons for that If you're trying to get solutions to problems then increasing negativity makes that harder . New paper: An analysis of news coverage between [----] and [----] finds that the news "has become increasingly negative across all states in the past half century." Economic sentiment has plunged since [----]. Non-econ news sentiment has steadily declined since [----]. https://t.co/QyfvizCanY New paper: An analysis of news coverage between [----] and [----] finds that the news "has become increasingly negative across all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1744867252984582533)  2024-01-09T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@peter_tulip @cmkusher . economy are the equivalent of a [--] basis point cut (or increase) in the cash rate Those maths would be different for Stage [--] as much of it may be saved. Even so Stage 3's timing is the equiv of [--] to [--] rate cuts arriving in mid-2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1745219116666130693)  2024-01-10T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@peter_tulip @cmkusher Other things equal that delays matching interest rate cuts People get too excited about Stage [--]. But I do worry about its timing As it happens I'm an inflation optimist so I'm pretty hopeful it won't be a notable inflation challenge But it deserves a close eye"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745219529851253012)  2024-01-10T23:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheKouk Looks as if the budget will be [--] May"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1745313257228009965)  2024-01-11T05:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Stage [--] tax cuts assessing their fairness their size & their timing Check out my latest in the Fin: In brief I think the timing of Stage [--] could be a risk to inflation and interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1746629780416716986)  2024-01-14T20:26Z [--] followers, 25.4K engagements


"Yet the downside of being careful on rates is that if inflation proves more of a challenge than expected then the Reserve Bank would have to scramble to make up lost ground I dont forecast that will happen. But it could: inflation could turn out to be "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1746632649333211251)  2024-01-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"stronger and stickier than the RBA expects Yet Stage [--] arrives in just five months. Thats not long. And if something else goes wrong with Australias fight against inflation say if Iran gets rather more involved in the Middle East conflict then the proverbial hits the fan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1746632698956005521)  2024-01-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Im pretty optimistic that wont be a problem. But its a volatile world and the RBA will be keeping a close eye on the Stage [--] implications as [----] unfolds ENDS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1746633040875737547)  2024-01-14T20:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This says the govt wants to fast track cost of living help It says further rebates for household energy bills are believed to be under consideration If thats accurate its a shame energy rebates may be good politics but they're not good policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1746791455736353224)  2024-01-15T07:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CroweDM A truly marvellous man Tim fought hard to make Australia better with many successes along the way A wonderful role model he will be sadly missed "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749219563072602324)  2024-01-21T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Absolutely Cost of living 'relief' redistributes pain rather than reduces the overall amount of pain But redistribution is important If you're paying personal tax chances are you are financially better off than JobSeekers low-income renters single parents disabled etc A reminder that those facing the toughest financial conditions (today and just about always) are not those paying personal income tax. It's JobSeekers low-income renters single parents disabled carers sick etc. A reminder that those facing the toughest financial conditions (today and just about always) are not those paying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749289912103555568)  2024-01-22T04:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Stage [--] . Canberra has suddenly gone very quiet and my spider senses are tingling "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749293259351036094)  2024-01-22T04:49Z [----] followers, 65.7K engagements


"Ignore the noise focus on fundamentals The govt is busily making decisions about what happens to the tax cuts and to its cost of living assistance So its worth remembering the economics for a moment Australians cost of living is under pressure because inflation took off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749650312795914342)  2024-01-23T04:28Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements


"Wages fell behind prices due to inflation Inflation drove up interest rates and so borrowing costs And inflation also helped push up personal taxes as a share of income thats what has driven the cost of living pain being felt by wage-earners borrowers & taxpayers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749650582296825979)  2024-01-23T04:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(And yes lots of people are all three.) The best solution is to bring inflation down that gives breathing space for wages to catch up it allows interest rates to fall and it limits the pain for people driven into higher tax brackets. The Reserve Bank is trying to "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749650687670276443)  2024-01-23T04:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My main hope is that the govts measures do provide assistance to those struggling the most. Thats those on the lowest incomes in the nation the unemployed low-income renters single parents our disabled and our carers That is it would be good to see the govt rearrange"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749651489814200799)  2024-01-23T04:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


". the cost of living pain in Australia even if it ends up adding to the overall pie of pain by risking inflation and interest rates being higher for longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749651742793634191)  2024-01-23T04:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here's my understanding of what the newly announced rates will be (versus the legislated Stage 3) Two charts here. One shows average rates of tax in 2017-18 (before stage 1) as well as the legislated 2024-25 rates and the newly announced rates Other chart shows the diff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749951734502625306)  2024-01-24T00:26Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements


"The least noticed thing about the new tax scale - assuming leaks correct - is costs extra $17bn over forward estimates Almost $5bn in the yr starting in [--] months That isn't what last night's rumours (no net extra cost) said Unwelcome news for the RBA "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749954116179378662)  2024-01-24T00:35Z [----] followers, 44.6K engagements


"OK the rumours have been updated - there's no change to the tax free threshold. So . Many taxpayers get $804 more Many get $4546 less Dividing line $149335 13% of taxpayers lose; rest get less tax Extra cost 2bn a yr (so much smaller inflation risk than I'd feared)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749995267292815438)  2024-01-24T03:19Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"@GT937orBust Yes that's right because those with incomes under $23375 pay no tax And if you don't pay tax you can't get a tax cut"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750048405408428330)  2024-01-24T06:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A moment ago the PM described the tax cuts for those at $50000 as being "over $900" I think that's because he has added to the tax cut changes being announced the usual indexation of the Medicare thresholds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750333835185922090)  2024-01-25T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here's the money shot - literally - from the Tsy advice Note most models incl mine show a cost to revenue in 2024-25 My model says cost of $2.8bn. The PBO's online tool says cost of $3.0bn So how is it Tsy shows a SAVING in the coming financial year Because that's CASH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750335272443875669)  2024-01-25T01:50Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"And that's a reasonable point Many people are getting a tax cut but it won't actually show up as money in their pocket until they get a bigger tax return in Jul-Sep [----] So there is extra cash but it arrives slowly And that's vital . it says "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750335743590092861)  2024-01-25T01:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And now for a key point. Remember [--] out of every [--] adults don't pay personal tax as they're incomes are too low Such as pensioners the unemployed students carers disabled some single parents many disabled So rejigging a tax cut does nothing for those doing it toughest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750337518804009440)  2024-01-25T01:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Excellent qu from Bloomberg In effect asking why govt has focussed on symptoms rather than cause of cost of living pressures - that is inflation To be fair I don't think there's a near term worsening of inflation from tax rejig But no attempt to fight inflation from govt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750348236924338277)  2024-01-25T02:41Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements


"Is it fair It bugs me all todays announcements ignore that [--] out of every [--] adults dont pay personal tax as their incomes are too low (pensioners unemployed students carers some single parents many disabled) So rejigging a tax cut does nothing "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750398233636171893)  2024-01-25T06:00Z [----] followers, 30.1K engagements


"And the timing of the tax cuts They arrive in [--] months For an economy with an inflation problem that worries me ANZ recently noted something that Ive been saying for months that the tax cuts are the equivalent of [--] interest rate cuts (0.5%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750402587013382202)  2024-01-25T06:17Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements


"Im an inflation optimist so Im hopeful the tax cut isnt a problem for the RBA But whether we end up in a policy tug-of-war between RBA & Canberras tax cuts now lies at mercy of events geopolitics from Iran to Red Sea & Taiwan is replete with cost push inflation risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750403034256179238)  2024-01-25T06:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"OK once more into the breach . I have done some numbers that give a feel for the progressivity of the new tax rate scale Caveat - as noted estimated using a group model Here are some charts Starting with the share of personal tax paid by the top 5% of taxpayers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750415475761439230)  2024-01-25T07:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"In my days at St Marys primary school in East Malvern it was known as an industrial strength wedgie. Yesterdays rejig of the tax system does many things. In a complete coincidence one of them is that it wedges the Opposition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750766997900853714)  2024-01-26T06:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The govts rejig has [--] winners for every loser So if the Opposition sticks to its original policies then it would be promising [--] losers for every winner. If I ignore all considerations of what is or isnt good policy and "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750767254026011122)  2024-01-26T06:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"But it wd just be a diff version of many losers few winners with those on less than $150000 worse off & those above better off & whereas govt has the luxury of changing a tax cut that hasnt arrived the Coalition wd have to legislate to take money away from many people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750767680779674009)  2024-01-26T06:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"again about [--] losers for every winner. Yeah nah 2nd thought bubble. Might they have a bigger tax cut than the govt but merely lean in direction of its old policy The Opp cld eg drop the 37c rate to 35c thereby offering a tax cut of a little over $20 a wk to "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750767984061383112)  2024-01-26T06:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Waleed Aly has written of his discomfort with the PMs tax change arguing we cannot dismiss a broken promise lightly simply because we like the outcome. This being a funny old world I tackled the same question "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1751485911727304938)  2024-01-28T06:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"While were waiting for that though Ill still prefer hypocrites to cowards. At least that allows the nation to change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1751486483264110614)  2024-01-28T06:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Lots to love in this little bundle of joy The fight against inflation isn't over but these trends are def our friend A risk Oz runs is that our inflation fight remains touch and go when tax cuts arrive in July But this says that risk still looks low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1752493096166969776)  2024-01-31T00:44Z [----] followers, 20.6K engagements


"@DaveTaylorNews Hi Dave Either version of the tax cuts - both new and old - are a risk to inflation as they tip more than $20bn into the economy I've said for a while that's a risk but that I was an optimist on that risk. Today's data confirms that optimism Stage [--] tax cuts assessing their fairness their size & their timing Check out my latest in the Fin: https://t.co/utQAbc3B8v In brief I think the timing of Stage [--] could be a risk to inflation and interest rates Stage [--] tax cuts assessing their fairness their size & their timing Check out my latest in the Fin: https://t.co/utQAbc3B8v In"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1752505257975017893)  2024-01-31T01:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"But the equation here is simple: the bigger the tax cut the bigger the inflation risk So the difference of almost $4bn in official figures cant be ignored because the best way to fight the cost of living crisis is actually to get inflation down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1752971342218133505)  2024-02-01T08:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The good news is I think Treasury is right. The 2nd page of the PBO analysis notes its modelling allows for some timing effects but not those arising from offsets And the thing about the rejigged tax cuts is that they do affect a key offset the Low Income Tax Offset (LITO)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1752971439555440885)  2024-02-01T08:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". is that the lowest earning taxpayers will be waiting [--] months to get some of their relief (because it will show up in their tax refund)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1752971833245319372)  2024-02-01T08:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The RBA will do a press conference this afternoon. Thats uncomfortable for them but its vital for Australia. And the most vital message of all for the RBA to get across Its that the cost of living is under pressure because inflation took off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754695675986755592)  2024-02-06T02:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wages fell behind prices due to inflation Inflation drove up interest rates and so borrowing costs And inflation also helped push up personal taxes as a share of income thats what has driven the cost of living pain being felt by wage earners borrowers & taxpayers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754695778776526924)  2024-02-06T02:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Most Australians dont understand that the best solution is to bring inflation down. That gives breathing space for wages to catch up it allows interest rates to fall and it limits the pain for people driven into higher tax brackets. So THATS WHAT the RBA is trying to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754695956887753078)  2024-02-06T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". that Michele Bullock needs to get across The first is that the battle against inflation is going better than the RBA had expected and so the chance of further rate increases are low. (But with the usual caveat unless things change for example if "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754696256419688882)  2024-02-06T02:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". Iran gets directly involved in the Middle East conflict.) The second thought though is that the first rate cut probably isnt imminent. Tax cuts and the like address symptoms of the cost of living crisis. The RBA tries to directly fight the cause. But that's a grind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754696723476426790)  2024-02-06T02:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I think the RBA's press conference was a success Yes there were gotcha questions And yes there's still a lot of jargon getting used But I do think people would come away feeling better informed - and also feeling respected in a way that earlier processes lacked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1754737081258234089)  2024-02-06T05:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The better the conversation the better the nation Great articles in the SMH/Age about @1RossGittins today including one by Ross himself Ill often agree with Ross and often dont But agreeing or not is absolutely not the point The point is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1755005952326307886)  2024-02-06T23:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The consistent private message from both sides of politics in Australia is they very much fear another Trump presidency if for no other reason than his decision making is so unpredictable that US allies such as Oz can't predictably plan Yet Trump looks increasingly likely 😬 If you wanna say the glass is half-full for Biden that's fine. Personally I'm closer to half-empty. Google some random press conferences from [----] compare them to tonight. It's subjective. But elections are subjective. And voters are emphatically half-empty on Biden too. If you wanna say the glass is half-full for Biden"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1755788345328939509)  2024-02-09T02:58Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements


"Stamp duty is a spectacularly bad tax As house prices have risen so much & as stamp duty rates rise alongside prices this dumb tax has become much dumber Stamp duties have been the standout tax reform option for the nation for some time and the case for action is rising How much money would you give up to change homes Half a year of take-home salary Stamp duty is in this ballpark. It costs the average capital city dweller five months of after-tax income. 1/ How much money would you give up to change homes Half a year of take-home salary Stamp duty is in this ballpark. It costs the average"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1756841039565148458)  2024-02-12T00:41Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements


"Democracy is wonderful but it is failing to protect this nation from pouring $50bn straight down the drain. Thats because there are times when neither the Government nor the Opposition of the day has the incentive to do the right thing by Australia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1757134813474230461)  2024-02-12T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not all taxes are created equal. Some destroy more value in the economy than others Stamp duty is gold medal winning in its destructiveness That's because it is is a big red stop sign in front of people being where they want to be https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-fastest-way-to-add-5-billion-to-victoria-s-economy-axe-stamp-duty-20240213-p5f4gz.htmlbtis= https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-fastest-way-to-add-5-billion-to-victoria-s-economy-axe-stamp-duty-20240213-p5f4gz.htmlbtis="  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759694807415636321)  2024-02-19T21:41Z [----] followers, 22.1K engagements


"Australia and the world are arguing more about slices of the pie than we are about ways to increase the pie. To be clear fairness is stunningly important. But so too is sustainable prosperity. This is a chart of Australian living standards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1760468215430578264)  2024-02-22T00:55Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements


"The bottom line We can and should regularly focus on fairness. Australia for example desperately needs a stronger unemployment benefit. But lets remember prosperity as well as fairness. We need to champion both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1760468999689961967)  2024-02-22T00:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JeromeFahrer Some of it was productivity But sadly yes much of the speedy phase was luck - we rode the rise of China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1760485058262286454)  2024-02-22T02:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Politicians generally try to do the right thing by the nation but theyll only do so provided that doesnt get in the way of them getting elected. Thats why governments that are popular tend to govern better than governments that arent "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1762210037622276108)  2024-02-26T20:16Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements


"You bewdy 😁 Long overdue this is excellent policy . Chalmers tariff cut to save $30m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1766793715803414918)  2024-03-10T11:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The Treasurer talks on the budget today. It looks as if key messages will include: (1) there'll be another surplus but (2) not as big as last year Those both look right to me (even though the surplus over the past [--] months was a hefty $28bn)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1768055603375808805)  2024-03-13T23:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And I have no great problem with franking credits. They get a worse rap than they deserve But they fail in super funds which have: An enormous reliance on Oz shares so they earn lots of franking credits A very low rate of tax (15%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1768057349816877257)  2024-03-13T23:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And a very low rate of capital gains tax (33%) Multiply those components together and the super tax take is headed down even though wages and jobs have done well. As Ive said before super began as a force for good but it has morphed into a force for evil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1768057413473857871)  2024-03-13T23:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So it kills me that were sleep walking into another increase in compulsory super on [--] July. That straight up takes money from poorer Australians and hands it to richer Australians. The silence around that is sad. ENDS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1768057496932171969)  2024-03-13T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Some of today's remarkable job numbers may not be fully accurate But the basic story is very happy Inflation in Oz has dropped lots yet unemployment has risen only a little Yes the first cut in interest rates is probably some way off But smell the roses: we've done well 😃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1770617270688985158)  2024-03-21T01:03Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"@TMFScottP Times of surplus see more dumb policies than usual 😞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1773245693194326106)  2024-03-28T07:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ive said for a long time that the first cut in interest rates wouldnt arrive until late [----]. Heres why I think that: In brief the fight against inflation is going really well better than the RBA expected . https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dreaming-of-an-early-interest-rate-cut-dream-on-20240401-p5fgjf.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dreaming-of-an-early-interest-rate-cut-dream-on-20240401-p5fgjf.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1775283391140933694)  2024-04-02T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Most importantly we will get a lot of cost of living relief this year but thatll come as tax cuts before it comes as rate cuts. The tax cut arriving on [--] July is the equiv of more than two rate cuts. Or to put that differently the size and timing of the tax cut means "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1775283912857759944)  2024-04-02T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


". that to think that therell be an early rate cut is to think the RBA will top up the tax cut for the equivalent of three rapid fire rate cuts even though the RBAs main measure of inflation was still close to 4% over the past year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1775284059868205480)  2024-04-02T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So forget the Easter bunny Santa is likely to be checking twice whether youve been naughty or nice before theres any cut in interest rates in Australia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1775284348310393145)  2024-04-02T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMFScottP With a pick up in the regularity of payday loans as well (during the footy - often a first mover)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1781471619103203678)  2024-04-19T23:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"You know winter is coming when Canberra's trees change colour and the Treasurer returns from Washington full of warnings Both events are seasonal But the global economy is doing better than you think - and so is the budget I'm at the [--] minute mark https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2422C061S00 https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2422C061S00"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1782362993684255006)  2024-04-22T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ouch Today's inflation is ugly Bad news if you're hoping for an interest rate cut - even late [----] looking a bit hopeful Bad news if you're putting together a govt budget - as there's a risk more spending would push a 1st rate cut after the election https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1782952147862331442)  2024-04-24T01:58Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements


"@SHamiltonian Absolutely agreed @SHamiltonian (1) Negative gearing allows costs to be deducted from revenues - that's fine (2) The capital gains tax deduction isn't fine - it's too big & it shd be cut back (3) Regardless removing one or both wdn't affect prices or rents much "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783642680385536424)  2024-04-25T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SHamiltonian The PBO analysis just showed that negative gearing isn't big - as you note less than $4bn a year in a $10 trillion market AND to the extent that negative gearing has an impact on house prices it des so because it affects the after-tax cost of capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783643207643111828)  2024-04-25T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SHamiltonian So if you thought removing negative gearing wd be vital to housing prices you'd also think the recent lift in mortgage interest rates would have had an impact In fact the lift in interest costs over the past [--] yrs has lifted them by MORE THAN $80bn a yr at annualised rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783644317955113271)  2024-04-25T23:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The last key building block for forecasting the budget just landed the monthly data for March On the one hand the budget continues to roar. Over the last [--] months the cash underlying surplus was $31.5bn well up on the $22.1bn in 2022-23 https://www.finance.gov.au/publications/commonwealth-monthly-financial-statements/2024/mfs-march https://www.finance.gov.au/publications/commonwealth-monthly-financial-statements/2024/mfs-march"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783660443162321306)  2024-04-26T00:52Z [----] followers, 21.7K engagements


"On the other hand the dynamics are faltering The company tax take hasnt improved since mid-2023 the tax take on spending is crawling (despite inflation & popn growth). All the revenue improvement is taxes on punter wages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783660581024837708)  2024-04-26T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And spending growth has accelerated to 6.4% over the past year So the surplus is peaking The tax cut in [--] months is a big cost while rising defence and NDIS-plus-NDIS-related spending will take the rest of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783660920562209162)  2024-04-26T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Policy has largely been on autopilot for some time as war & inflation deliver huge tax dividends At some stage the budgetary juggle will get hard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783661085620584790)  2024-04-26T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DonWeatherburn Not good In the main that is because commodity prices have been jumping up and down for some time and because (to a lesser extent) inflation has too So a more volatile economy has meant worse economic forecasting but much worse budget forecasting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1783772059027304951)  2024-04-26T08:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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