#  @Chariot_Invest Charioteer Investing Charioteer Investing posts on X about stocks, if you, investment, $lhx the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1332476419964887040/interactions)  - [--] Week [--] no change - [--] Month [-----] +3,866% - [--] Months [-----] +5,433% - [--] Year [-----] -99% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1332476419964887040/posts_active)  ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1332476419964887040/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.12% - [--] Month [-----] +0.11% - [--] Months [-----] +0.21% - [--] Year [-----] -0.71% ### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1332476419964887040/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 99% [stocks](/list/stocks) 28% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 13% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 8% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 4% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1% **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) 14%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 8%, [investment](/topic/investment) 6%, [$lhx](/topic/$lhx) 5%, [$lmt](/topic/$lmt) 5%, [$rop](/topic/$rop) 5%, [$noc](/topic/$noc) 5%, [$msft](/topic/$msft) 5%, [money](/topic/money) 5%, [business](/topic/business) 4% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jktadave](/creator/undefined) [@postmarket](/creator/undefined) [@iceburghcapital](/creator/undefined) [@pansarev](/creator/undefined) [@pekwat](/creator/undefined) [@bluthcapital](/creator/undefined) [@jayapted](/creator/undefined) [@kevg1412](/creator/undefined) [@sixsigmacapital](/creator/undefined) [@adrivalue](/creator/undefined) [@edteach1718](/creator/undefined) [@coupdetoe](/creator/undefined) [@johnbottcher](/creator/undefined) [@longequity](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@maldendrivecap](/creator/undefined) [@billbrewstertbb](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined) [@capitalspanc](/creator/undefined) [@marcslans](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX)](/topic/$lhx) [Limitus (LMT)](/topic/$lmt) [Roper Technologies Inc (ROP)](/topic/$rop) [Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)](/topic/$noc) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [Altria Group Inc (MO)](/topic/$mo) [Mercury Systems Inc. (MRCY)](/topic/$mrcy) [Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)](/topic/$pm) [Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX)](/topic/$rtx) [AME Chain (AME)](/topic/$ame) [CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA (CACI)](/topic/$caci) [United Rentals, Inc. (URI)](/topic/$uri) [BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)](/topic/$bwxt) [Heima (HEI)](/topic/$hei) [IDEX Corporation (IEX)](/topic/$iex) [Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY)](/topic/$tdy) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [British American Tobacco (BTI)](/topic/$bti) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (SAIC)](/topic/$saic) [Grayscale BTC ETF (GBTC)](/topic/$gbtc) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [Target Corporation (TGT)](/topic/$tgt) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL)](/topic/$tpl) [Civeo Corporation (CVEO)](/topic/$cveo) [Fenerbahçe Token (FB)](/topic/$fb) [Stacks (STX)](/topic/$stx) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [Woodward, Inc. (WWD)](/topic/$wwd) [Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)](/topic/$shw) [Fastenal Company (FAST)](/topic/$fast) [Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)](/topic/$msi) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Amphenol Corporation (APH)](/topic/$aph) [Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)](/topic/$odfl) [IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX)](/topic/$idxx) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)](/topic/$cmg) [Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)](/topic/$algn) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)](/topic/$atvi) [Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)](/topic/$dpz) [CSX Corporation (CSX)](/topic/$csx) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "I'm genuinely asking this: Can anyone point me to an example where AI was used to create software that was high enough caliber to replace existing SW in a business At work my AI can't do sh*t and it's not even remotely close i'm having trouble seeing the future here" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/2014438705704919045) 2026-01-22T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@IceburghCapital Lexus/Acura for the win" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1795603870305198120) 2024-05-28T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@pansareV Honestly all the "get rich quick" stuff bothers me less than expensive stocks staying expensive. Like how long can some of these companies trade at 50-60x Some of them have been there for like [--] years now with no signs of cracking gives me more FOMO than anything else" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1798823134327636425) 2024-06-06T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@pekwat Buy a private business at 6-10x FCF with MSD revenue growth and some modest margin expansion opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1799233437557199223) 2024-06-08T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BluthCapital I support this thought process entirely" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1834641742420750433) 2024-09-13T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JayApted Statistically cheap but with large transactions you typically see a sharp uptick in recompete losses and revenue attrition before things stabilize. I'm trying to weigh soft revenue growth vs. the current discounted valuation. Considering a position but haven't committed" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1842217945654501711) 2024-10-04T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@kevg1412 Sounds suspiciously like the Bridgewater "radical honesty" crap that just makes everyone mean and sociopathic" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1864788324415627614) 2024-12-05T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SixSigmaCapital The insanity never ends" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1866224090115186870) 2024-12-09T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@adrivalue $TDG all the way" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1377066510930296833) 2021-03-31T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Ed_Teach1718 My main account in order of cost basis $TDG $ROP $MO $NOC $MRCY $PM $LHX $RTX $CNSWF $SAIC $URI $LMT $CACI $BWXT $TPL $GBTC $CVEO $FB $STX I also have other accounts which have $HEI $INTC $MSFT $TGT $V $DIS $WMT" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1378111157815365638) 2021-04-02T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Starting to see some fear in the markets now but hasn't reached a fever pitch yet. Still looking for despair and hopelessness but starting to nibble on some favorites here. $TDG $SAFRY $WWD $MRCY all looking good" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1573364837916475392) 2022-09-23T17:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CoupDeToe Your first post was 12/22/2022 here is what BTI has done since then😉 Don't worry though brother i'm a fellow bagholder" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1637972269489086464) 2023-03-21T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@john_bottcher @long_equity Safran is so good the French government forced them to buy Zodiac to save the country's reputation 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1730687141175304231) 2023-12-01T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Industrials $URI $APH $ODFL $IEX $IDXX $SHW $AME $TDY $FAST $MSI $DSDVY $CPRT" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1751788912505164162) 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tech (Software) $ADBE $ROP $CNSWF/CSU $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1751788914652656042) 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Most investors have NO IDEA how little information they know. They think that reading 10-k's/transcripts is enough to get an "edge". They are dead wrong. Who do you think knows more about $MSFT a guy reading transcripts or a guy who has had [--] meetings with Nadella this year" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1348411981515153409) 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is why i think investors should pick a good industry (high ROIC) and focus narrowly on developing their circle of competence there. If you like Semiconductors just learn about the [--] Semi companies and don't stray outside that zone" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1348411982823772160) 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yes you'll lack "diversification" but you'll actually learn enough about that industry over time to make accurate predictions. If you invest outside your circle of competence size the position small to limit your risk" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1348411984216289281) 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some thoughts - Was just reading Valuation by McKinsey. Thought it would give me additional insight into DCF's (always try to sharpen your sword). In actuality it turned me off from the process (at least their complicated version of it). Thread below" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1349446064693243904) 2021-01-13T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "New post on Altria $MO 4Q20 earnings - https://charioteerinvesting.com/mo-4q20-earnings-analysis-buyback-announced/ https://charioteerinvesting.com/mo-4q20-earnings-analysis-buyback-announced/" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1358601926670249988) 2021-02-08T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "An underrated "valuation" calculation is simply to calculate how much time it will take for you to get your initial outlay back in FCF. Will make you think about what it actually means to pay 50x FCF for something what kind of growth do you have to assume" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1366505830070292483) 2021-03-01T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Another one is to simply run a sensitivity table with FCF/Share growth on one axis and and future multiple on the other. See what your CAGR would be as you change those values. Sobering to show how much growth you need to offset possible multiple fade" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1366505831957729282) 2021-03-01T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "New blog post - Long thesis on $NOC https://charioteerinvesting.com/northrop-grumman-noc-three-for-me/ https://charioteerinvesting.com/northrop-grumman-noc-three-for-me/" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1379089405588221958) 2021-04-05T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fintwit do we really expect $GOOGL to CAGR revs at 12% ($225b$400b) and FCF at 16% ($52b to $111b) thru [----] Or is this just sell-side modelling nonsense If that's even in the ballpark shares are cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1382440038714183689) 2021-04-14T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "People always focus on $TDG's pricing power but I think their ability to take out cost is what actually drives most of their success. Raising prices assures a modest amount of annual growth but you don't raise ESL margins from 15% to 45% from pricing that's all cost takeout" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1403348019089707008) 2021-06-11T13:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Re-entered my $BTI position Tobacco now makes up 16.5% of my portfolio at cost. $MO 8% $PM 5% $BTI 3%" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1412864009657851911) 2021-07-07T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I know Value stocks are worthless this time is different and the only thing that matters is growth but. Anyone here follow $EQC Looks compelling. $24 in cash stock is at $26 no debt. Sam Zell running the joint" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1422222542933200904) 2021-08-02T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I see so many threads talking about identifying 10x or 100x baggers. The reality is that even finding 5x baggers is much harder than it looks. To 5x over [--] years requires a 20% CAGR. That is tough to do. This bubble is causing a lot of recency bias/FOMO" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1425082711614558215) 2021-08-10T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "By the way i'm not subtweeting anyone I think it's a noble pursuit to identify the characteristics of a good long-term investment but you shouldn't set 10x or 100x as your "benchmark" for a good return. If you can compound at 7-10% over a long time you'll do better than most" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1425083073515999234) 2021-08-10T13:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Also some (but not all) of these multibagger opptys will be ugly as hell. My only multibagger $TPCA went NOWHERE for [--] years while i held then it 4.5x'd in like [--] years. My thesis played out exactly but imagine underperforming for [--] years. It is mentally difficult" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1425086901388783622) 2021-08-10T13:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I've been thinking a lot about portfolio sizing. I've decided to eliminate arbitrary size limits in my portfolio it doesn't make sense when you have new capital inflows every month and stock prices are moving around" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1430212636352843777) 2021-08-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm not the first to say this but getting a job in investing is way more about signalling than skills. Investing is typically a highly undifferentiated product most managers simply end up owning the same 30-50 stocks as everyone else. So how do you charge 2/20 for that" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946877540212740) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The answer is that you convince the client that you are worthy of their capital because you have a "process" that is the "secret sauce" and is better than everyone else's" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946879180189697) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm writing this thread because i've had lots of people ask me about my process for finding investments or reference a famous fintwitter/HF managers process as proof of superior thinking. What i'm trying to say is: beware" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946880958517256) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My guess is the investors who say they do those things probably aren't doing them either (it's all marketing). But even if they are it's not relevant to you as an amateur you can do plenty of things a pro can't do (like buy and hold)" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946889150046216) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So my advice to the amateurs out there stop taking advice on "process" from pro's. They don't have the same mandate as you and your goals aren't the same. They're trying to stay employed you're trying to compound your capital. Focus on how to do that better and you'll be fine" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946890693554179) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Post_Market I love industrials and cyclicals and that's pretty much all i own and i can say that Fintwit is a lonely experience for me. More often than not i'm shouting into the void about $RTX or something and everyone else wants to talk about tech consumer etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1435233093359702023) 2021-09-07T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If you spend enough time on twitter you begin to suspect that no one has ever caught a multiple fade on any stock that they own.ever. IME the multiple fade is usually 2-3x worse than the drawdown in fundamentals. Most losses come from multiples overcorrecting negatively" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1441096972136374281) 2021-09-23T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Inspired by @PythiaR 's "miss" on $CMG and $ALGN here are some of the biggest investment misses of my life. Products/services i was using daily and should have been obvious" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1443381117252419593) 2021-09-30T01:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Generally speaking in the stock market you get paid for uncertainty. If the outcome was certain it would be bid up accordingly (think investment grade bonds). Think of this next time you see people trashing a stock/sector as "unownable" (i.e. $BABA right now)" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1448024947578785799) 2021-10-12T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Spending time away from twitter has made me rethink a lot of how I get information. Everyone seems to follow the same companies read the same books watch the same interviews/podcasts. I think i'm going to start leaning away from all of that. Don't need to consume more content" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1457737141895761927) 2021-11-08T15:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Even though I originally wanted to run a "concentrated" portfolio I'm increasingly convinced that it's not a good idea for the majority of investors. I'm aiming for 50-100 stocks in my portfolio now" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1465428319801860100) 2021-11-29T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This $ATVI deal is the quickest bang-to-bullets takeout I've ever had on a stock. Bought shares in November expecting to hold for at least [--] years while Diablo etc. were released. Than $MSFT comes and takes me out [--] days later. Ah well. I guess it's good" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1483448855916171264) 2022-01-18T14:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Post_Market I think markets are smart on fwd 12-18 months but not beyond [--] years. So much fast money needs to be right TODAY that duration becomes a big edge. The fact is that no one really knows direction of the numbers beyond a year not even mgmt. You have to get biz quality right" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1491487175204126722) 2022-02-09T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I remember when people used to troll Value investors for saying they looked for ideas in the 52-week low list.and now i see people passing those same lists around talking about how its a great place to look for growth stocks. Not "dunking on anyone" just interesting to observe" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1495858698908057601) 2022-02-21T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Peak capitalism is sending your kid to full-time childcare so you can spend more time on your parenting blog" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1506006726931275784) 2022-03-21T20:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MaldenDriveCap My brother was a hedge fund PM and decided to retire in his early 40's. He said the biggest problem with HF careers is that the skillset you develop is so narrow its hard to transition to anything outside Finance which contributes to the downshift in comp" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1507445799072026625) 2022-03-25T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why is it that certain types of stocks get so popular amongst professional investors I'm thinking of $CVNA in particular. Why did everyone decide they needed to have a position either Long or Short I see this phenomenon a lot and i can't figure out what drives it" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1534609235090325505) 2022-06-08T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Like shouldn't pro managers get paid for doing really unconventional things I understand crowding in $GOOG but crowding in demonstrably worse businesses like $CVNA are truly baffling to me" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1534609238538035202) 2022-06-08T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Over time I've noticed a good investor acknowledges risks to their thesis and doesn''t need to "window dress" with mitigants or deny the risks exist. They simply say "yes that could happen and i would lose money in that scenario" and they've baked that into their calculus" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1541892174723293186) 2022-06-28T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1) Pick industries where prediction is not necessary (i.e. Aerospace Engines Analog Semi's etc) because the product is inherently long-lived and necessary 2) Usually those industries have only a few players own them all (don't cherry pick) 3) Buy them when they're hated" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1544020602494885888) 2022-07-04T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I've noticed that a lot of investors tend to "graduate" to increasing levels of abstraction and meta-games as they gain more experience and get further and further away from just a simple analysis of a business and valuation. Why is simplicity frowned upon in this business" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1550177022156185600) 2022-07-21T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I absolutely feel the same way and let me demonstrate it with a somewhat simplified example. ROIC is a fantastic concept but I feel that it is not that useful to actually try and calculate it ROIC is a fantastic concept but I feel that it is not that useful to actually try and calculate it" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1564363018246430722) 2022-08-29T21:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BillBrewsterTBB Most ppl way overthinking this just show up when you'll have the highest impact in-person. I only go in for C-level meetings retirement parties and strategy briefings. Have been called a high-performer even though I'm only in the office 30-40% of the time" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1628793994057482246) 2023-02-23T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What i've learned from Fintwit over the years is that if you ever see an account pop up that is SOLELY dedicated to one stock usually with the acct owner saying they have 100%+ of their money in it that is a near perfect sign the stock is overhyped and will crater" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1637964118475898880) 2023-03-20T23:47Z [----] followers, 19K engagements "Why have people soured on $DPZ I remember when it was all the rage a few years ago now it's trading at nearly a record low P/FCF" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1647954049747017732) 2023-04-17T13:23Z [----] followers, 47.1K engagements "$PM currently trades at 14x 2024E FCF and consensus expects FCF/sh to compound at 12% from 2023-2025 (probably moderates a bit in the outyears but still likely to grow 7% or greater). In my opinion it's a complete lay-up i'm adding more at $95" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1649464889256058903) 2023-04-21T17:27Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements "LVMH at 20% FCF margins is surprising that's lower than almost every railroad (22-29%). I would have thought it would be closer to 30-50%" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1663971379853574151) 2023-05-31T18:11Z [----] followers, 22.5K engagements "Is IBKR better than Fidelity for personal accounts Specifically i'm interested in 1) Tracking performance Fidelity has a good tracker 2) Buying international tickers Fidelity only really let's you buy ADRs but if i wanted to own $LVMH directly it seems like IBKR is better" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1674157935608332289) 2023-06-28T20:48Z [----] followers, 33K engagements "Kering shares have gone nowhere since [----] despite 7bn increase in revenues 400-500m increase in FCF Shares out down 3% and dividend up 33%. There was a spike in share price during COVID but it's down now Why LVMH is 2.5x in that same timeframe with no "COVID spike"" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1695225294347481212) 2023-08-26T00:03Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements "The term "margin of safety" has really dropped out of the investing lexicon these days. I remember back in 2009-2014 it was being thrown around everywhere. I don't think i've seen that phrase on twitter in well over [--] months now" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1699785623639564478) 2023-09-07T14:04Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "Stocks from my watchlist i think are interesting here: $LHX $AME $DSDVY / $DSV-CSE $TDY $CSX $NSC $UNP $ROP $LVMUY / $MC-PAR $PM / $MO / $BTI $CNSWF / $CSU-TSE I've been buying/adding to all of these over the last few weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1702411684751524187) 2023-09-14T19:59Z [----] followers, 18.3K engagements "This Ozempic narrative is out of control. That being said the 2nd derivative play on this would be to go long airlines. Each pound of weight savings saves the airline hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel costs over the airplanes operating life. Joking but not joking" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1712691326779531653) 2023-10-13T04:46Z [----] followers, 86.8K engagements "It is dawning on me that no one has ever posited that the secular trend of heavy passengers has probably been a [--] year headwind on airline profitability" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1712691649996841463) 2023-10-13T04:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Getting people to like you is the easiest thing in the world 1) Learn basic manners 2) When someone tells you what they are interested in be interested in it and ask them questions Despite there only really being [--] rules" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1714675882193739898) 2023-10-18T16:12Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "I'm not an uber $PYPL bull but this is almost word-for-word what people said about $MSFT in 2011-2015 Every time I look at PayPal $PYPL and get tempted to buy it I remind myself they paid $4 billion for Honey a browser add on for coupons. Core biz is okay but numerous awful acquisitions. Every time I look at PayPal $PYPL and get tempted to buy it I remind myself they paid $4 billion for Honey a browser add on for coupons. Core biz is okay but numerous awful acquisitions" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1717535764253167860) 2023-10-26T13:36Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements "Professional money mgmt trains you to create an opinion on a matter quickly and then to rigorously defend that opinion to make sure you get some names in the portfolio. I think this is a bad thing to train people to do" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1719044783304298596) 2023-10-30T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "No shade but i've noticed that people with concentrated portfolios get increasingly emotionally "unhinged" about their stocks. They are too invested both figuratively and literally I've noticed it about some of my own investments even though i'm not running super concentrated" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1724250232488079547) 2023-11-14T02:17Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements "I rarely hear discourse on the quality of the earnings being capitalized in many stocks If a co sells [---] Widgets simply adding 6% sales growth next year implies they'll sell 100% of the widgets sold last year PLUS 6% more and that is not really a guarantee in a lot of biz's" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1735093587434504617) 2023-12-14T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Here is a pro-tip for buyside/sellside folks: There are an exceptional amount of corporate mgmt teams that would hire you to their staff just to explain "the market" to them. Finding an IR corp dev or strategist role (or getting them to make one for you) is a lay-up @bucketshopcap Problem with finance is once u leave u realize u have no other life skills @bucketshopcap Problem with finance is once u leave u realize u have no other life skills" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1736537959480901786) 2023-12-18T00:04Z [----] followers, 80K engagements "Open question to FinTwit What concepts topics or ideas are not adequately covered by popular investing books Could be anything from Valuation to industry selection or anything in between Leave as many ideas/replies in the comments as you'd like or DM me if you prefer" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1741244180096008246) 2023-12-30T23:45Z [----] followers, 53.7K engagements "The interesting part about owning "quality" stocks is that virtually all the bear cases amount to "well they can't do that forever" (TAM will run out/regulators will shut it down/competitors will enter) $CSU $ROP $TDG $HEI $V $MA $LVMUY $AME $IEX etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1747744863439778262) 2024-01-17T22:17Z [----] followers, 37.9K engagements "My complete stock watchlist Disclosure i own a lot of these the ones i don't own i will likely own in the future:" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1751788905727430876) 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, 68.1K engagements "It's amazing how many ppl are repulsed by owning [--] stocks (like i do). I'm getting a lot of DM's saying "you should just own the index if you own [--] stocks" Since i started the strategy in [----] I'm beating the S&P500 85% of my individual purchases beat an equal amount of S&P" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1752061301072007398) 2024-01-29T20:09Z [----] followers, 60.7K engagements "Friends don't let friends buy Aerospace OEM manufacturers/suppliers" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1763635964474278207) 2024-03-01T18:42Z [----] followers, 10K engagements "I'm doing that thing again where i'm looking at 2026E numbers to try to justify buying stocks. Can we please end this bull market soon It's boring" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1772732287228014629) 2024-03-26T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If a government official joining a defense contractor is bullish then $LMT $NOC $LHX should be trading at Infinity right now 🚨 Huge $PLTR Announcement🔮 Former Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher who was Chairman of the House Select Committee on Competition with the Chinese Communist Party just joined CNBC to announce: He is joining Palantir as Head of Defense Full clip from a few minutes ago👇 https://t.co/T92C6GDGzi 🚨 Huge $PLTR Announcement🔮 Former Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher who was Chairman of the House Select Committee on Competition with the Chinese Communist Party just joined CNBC to" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1826631605781516560) 2024-08-22T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Has anyone ever seen any research that backs up the claims that [--] ) long term stock returns gravitate towards long-term underlying returns on capital 2) long term stock returns gravitate towards the sum of initial FCF yield + FCF/sh growth" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1865039001939325175) 2024-12-06T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "While they sort of logically make sense my back-of-the-envelope math shows these heuristics have broken down over the last several years as multiple expansion has far surpassed earnings growth in a lot of sectors" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1865039003994460388) 2024-12-06T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Nothing to do with COVID the Finance/consulting pipeline has become too codified now. Everyone knows how to look good on paper/network to get these jobs. Go outside the box and find non-traditional candidates to get real performers. I love scrappy kids from no-name schools Should we blame COVID for there being a massive disconnect between skill level and job expectations for pple on Wall Street Friend at one of the highest profile hedge fund launches in [----] is looking for an analyst in LA. He laments how hes interviewing kids from Goldman and https://t.co/ZyGSqo6vSW Should we blame COVID for" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1866972143432384778) 2024-12-11T22:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""Yes my gf has stage [--] cancer and is totally insane but she's a supermodel. We're about to break up.but you should date her Think about it once she beats the cancer and changes her whole personality you'll have a supermodel girlfriend that's perfect"" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/2013663133009613265) 2026-01-20T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is how most people's investment pitches sound to me these days" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/2013663134603530399) 2026-01-20T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CapitalSpanc My tweet doesn't apply to Engine-makers/suppliers (which are awesome to own)" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1763655419921092738) 2024-03-01T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LMT basically said point blank on the conf call they are going to win Future Vertical Lift you rarely hear a contractor say stuff like that for an active competition. Last time I heard talk like that was when $LDOS took N-GEN from $PRSP" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1419741868158554116) 2021-07-26T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm not saying that having a process is bad. I absolutely think every investor should have "guardrails" to protect them from making bad decisions" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1434946882711785475) 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The problem with investing podcasts is that you'll never be able to pump out good investing ideas at the pace you'll need to publish episodes for your podcast to be successful. On a long enough timeline you become Jim Cramer" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1721878021810925874) 2023-11-07T13:11Z [----] followers, 18.3K engagements "I have a suggestion for business podcasters/interviewers: I have listened and read hundreds of interviews/podcasts/books about entrepreneurs/founders etc. The two most important things i want to hear are" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1796301597443600686) 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Instead far too much time is spent retroactively analyzing decisions AFTER the founders have become objectively successful I routinely find the last 50% of biographies boring because of this" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1796301602438992141) 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So if you have a podcast or are an interviewer spend more time talking about the early days and personal/family decisions it's way more interesting inspirational and educational for the target audience" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1796301604376789444) 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'm finding that in the business world when someone uses this phrase it is almost always indicative of a bad work culture at their office" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1824214202690703449) 2024-08-15T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also i'm laughing at the criticism that the rebrand doesn't include any Jaguar cars in it. The most famous commercial of all time is arguably "1984" by Apple which also didn't have an Macintosh in it" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1859298083697459697) 2024-11-20T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This of course assumes I can trust what management is saying but given the past growth achieved and the strong secular microelectronics trend i have no reason not to believe that they can get DD growth once again" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1423013377346097157) 2021-08-04T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Now the question of sizing comes up. $MRCY became my 3rd largest position at cost after last quarters drawdown. If i add any more money it will supplant $ROP as my 2nd largest position" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1423013378860126214) 2021-08-04T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Guys i just bought a little $TMO because why the hell not" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1712889941745688739) 2023-10-13T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Defense $NOC $LMT $LHX $MRCY $CACI $BWXT" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1751788908214456667) 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Since i keep getting this question here is my goal: Each individual purchase decision needs to outperform an equivalent amount of S&P500 purchased at the same time" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1751794264269361432) 2024-01-29T02:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@marc_slans Answer is complex. $RTX has significant comm aero exposure so won't react the same but it has a great defense portfolio $NOC best overall defense position but execution has been a lil subpar need to have a long holding period $LMT and $LHX tied for next place Don't buy $GD" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1876440172986040455) 2025-01-07T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "On my math if they CAGR their dividend/share at around 6% and use the remainder for share repo that means they'll buyback something like $11bn of shares from now through [----] and then maybe another $6.3bn in [----] itself" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1394761561563176960) 2021-05-18T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Theoretically that means shares outstanding could come down from 1.53bn to 1.411bn by EOY [----]. At that point $RTX would be generating $7/share of FCF and the market would have to value that cash at a 16.5x for me to hit that $116 share price to give me my target return" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/1394761562536255490) 2021-05-18T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@jktadave Over time i have ended up being very concentrated as i gain more conviction on certain positions. But overall i maintain about [--] positions with an additional [--] on my watchlist. I think overtime i will own [---] different stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/Chariot_Invest/status/2016157010643833308) 2026-01-27T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Chariot_Invest Charioteer Investing
Charioteer Investing posts on X about stocks, if you, investment, $lhx the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [-----] +3,866%
- [--] Months [-----] +5,433%
- [--] Year [-----] -99%
Mentions: [--] #
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.12%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.11%
- [--] Months [-----] +0.21%
- [--] Year [-----] -0.71%
CreatorRank: undefined #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 99% stocks 28% technology brands 13% cryptocurrencies 8% social networks 4% automotive brands 1%
Social topic influence stocks 14%, if you 8%, investment 6%, $lhx 5%, $lmt 5%, $rop 5%, $noc 5%, $msft 5%, money 5%, business 4%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jktadave @postmarket @iceburghcapital @pansarev @pekwat @bluthcapital @jayapted @kevg1412 @sixsigmacapital @adrivalue @edteach1718 @coupdetoe @johnbottcher @longequity @pythiar @maldendrivecap @billbrewstertbb @bucketshopcap @capitalspanc @marcslans
Top assets mentioned L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX) Limitus (LMT) Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Altria Group Inc (MO) Mercury Systems Inc. (MRCY) Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX) AME Chain (AME) CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA (CACI) United Rentals, Inc. (URI) BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Heima (HEI) IDEX Corporation (IEX) Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) British American Tobacco (BTI) Carvana Co. (CVNA) SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (SAIC) Grayscale BTC ETF (GBTC) Intel Corporation (INTC) Target Corporation (TGT) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL) Civeo Corporation (CVEO) Fenerbahçe Token (FB) Stacks (STX) DisChain (DIS) Woodward, Inc. (WWD) Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW) Fastenal Company (FAST) Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Amphenol Corporation (APH) Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Noble Corporation (NE) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Alibaba Group (BABA) Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) CSX Corporation (CSX)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"I'm genuinely asking this: Can anyone point me to an example where AI was used to create software that was high enough caliber to replace existing SW in a business At work my AI can't do sh*t and it's not even remotely close i'm having trouble seeing the future here"
X Link 2026-01-22T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@IceburghCapital Lexus/Acura for the win"
X Link 2024-05-28T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pansareV Honestly all the "get rich quick" stuff bothers me less than expensive stocks staying expensive. Like how long can some of these companies trade at 50-60x Some of them have been there for like [--] years now with no signs of cracking gives me more FOMO than anything else"
X Link 2024-06-06T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pekwat Buy a private business at 6-10x FCF with MSD revenue growth and some modest margin expansion opportunity"
X Link 2024-06-08T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BluthCapital I support this thought process entirely"
X Link 2024-09-13T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JayApted Statistically cheap but with large transactions you typically see a sharp uptick in recompete losses and revenue attrition before things stabilize. I'm trying to weigh soft revenue growth vs. the current discounted valuation. Considering a position but haven't committed"
X Link 2024-10-04T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@kevg1412 Sounds suspiciously like the Bridgewater "radical honesty" crap that just makes everyone mean and sociopathic"
X Link 2024-12-05T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SixSigmaCapital The insanity never ends"
X Link 2024-12-09T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@adrivalue $TDG all the way"
X Link 2021-03-31T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ed_Teach1718 My main account in order of cost basis $TDG $ROP $MO $NOC $MRCY $PM $LHX $RTX $CNSWF $SAIC $URI $LMT $CACI $BWXT $TPL $GBTC $CVEO $FB $STX I also have other accounts which have $HEI $INTC $MSFT $TGT $V $DIS $WMT"
X Link 2021-04-02T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Starting to see some fear in the markets now but hasn't reached a fever pitch yet. Still looking for despair and hopelessness but starting to nibble on some favorites here. $TDG $SAFRY $WWD $MRCY all looking good"
X Link 2022-09-23T17:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CoupDeToe Your first post was 12/22/2022 here is what BTI has done since then😉 Don't worry though brother i'm a fellow bagholder"
X Link 2023-03-21T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@john_bottcher @long_equity Safran is so good the French government forced them to buy Zodiac to save the country's reputation 😂"
X Link 2023-12-01T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Industrials $URI $APH $ODFL $IEX $IDXX $SHW $AME $TDY $FAST $MSI $DSDVY $CPRT"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tech (Software) $ADBE $ROP $CNSWF/CSU $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Most investors have NO IDEA how little information they know. They think that reading 10-k's/transcripts is enough to get an "edge". They are dead wrong. Who do you think knows more about $MSFT a guy reading transcripts or a guy who has had [--] meetings with Nadella this year"
X Link 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is why i think investors should pick a good industry (high ROIC) and focus narrowly on developing their circle of competence there. If you like Semiconductors just learn about the [--] Semi companies and don't stray outside that zone"
X Link 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yes you'll lack "diversification" but you'll actually learn enough about that industry over time to make accurate predictions. If you invest outside your circle of competence size the position small to limit your risk"
X Link 2021-01-10T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some thoughts - Was just reading Valuation by McKinsey. Thought it would give me additional insight into DCF's (always try to sharpen your sword). In actuality it turned me off from the process (at least their complicated version of it). Thread below"
X Link 2021-01-13T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New post on Altria $MO 4Q20 earnings - https://charioteerinvesting.com/mo-4q20-earnings-analysis-buyback-announced/ https://charioteerinvesting.com/mo-4q20-earnings-analysis-buyback-announced/"
X Link 2021-02-08T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"An underrated "valuation" calculation is simply to calculate how much time it will take for you to get your initial outlay back in FCF. Will make you think about what it actually means to pay 50x FCF for something what kind of growth do you have to assume"
X Link 2021-03-01T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Another one is to simply run a sensitivity table with FCF/Share growth on one axis and and future multiple on the other. See what your CAGR would be as you change those values. Sobering to show how much growth you need to offset possible multiple fade"
X Link 2021-03-01T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"New blog post - Long thesis on $NOC https://charioteerinvesting.com/northrop-grumman-noc-three-for-me/ https://charioteerinvesting.com/northrop-grumman-noc-three-for-me/"
X Link 2021-04-05T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fintwit do we really expect $GOOGL to CAGR revs at 12% ($225b$400b) and FCF at 16% ($52b to $111b) thru [----] Or is this just sell-side modelling nonsense If that's even in the ballpark shares are cheap"
X Link 2021-04-14T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"People always focus on $TDG's pricing power but I think their ability to take out cost is what actually drives most of their success. Raising prices assures a modest amount of annual growth but you don't raise ESL margins from 15% to 45% from pricing that's all cost takeout"
X Link 2021-06-11T13:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Re-entered my $BTI position Tobacco now makes up 16.5% of my portfolio at cost. $MO 8% $PM 5% $BTI 3%"
X Link 2021-07-07T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I know Value stocks are worthless this time is different and the only thing that matters is growth but. Anyone here follow $EQC Looks compelling. $24 in cash stock is at $26 no debt. Sam Zell running the joint"
X Link 2021-08-02T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I see so many threads talking about identifying 10x or 100x baggers. The reality is that even finding 5x baggers is much harder than it looks. To 5x over [--] years requires a 20% CAGR. That is tough to do. This bubble is causing a lot of recency bias/FOMO"
X Link 2021-08-10T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"By the way i'm not subtweeting anyone I think it's a noble pursuit to identify the characteristics of a good long-term investment but you shouldn't set 10x or 100x as your "benchmark" for a good return. If you can compound at 7-10% over a long time you'll do better than most"
X Link 2021-08-10T13:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Also some (but not all) of these multibagger opptys will be ugly as hell. My only multibagger $TPCA went NOWHERE for [--] years while i held then it 4.5x'd in like [--] years. My thesis played out exactly but imagine underperforming for [--] years. It is mentally difficult"
X Link 2021-08-10T13:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I've been thinking a lot about portfolio sizing. I've decided to eliminate arbitrary size limits in my portfolio it doesn't make sense when you have new capital inflows every month and stock prices are moving around"
X Link 2021-08-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm not the first to say this but getting a job in investing is way more about signalling than skills. Investing is typically a highly undifferentiated product most managers simply end up owning the same 30-50 stocks as everyone else. So how do you charge 2/20 for that"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The answer is that you convince the client that you are worthy of their capital because you have a "process" that is the "secret sauce" and is better than everyone else's"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm writing this thread because i've had lots of people ask me about my process for finding investments or reference a famous fintwitter/HF managers process as proof of superior thinking. What i'm trying to say is: beware"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My guess is the investors who say they do those things probably aren't doing them either (it's all marketing). But even if they are it's not relevant to you as an amateur you can do plenty of things a pro can't do (like buy and hold)"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So my advice to the amateurs out there stop taking advice on "process" from pro's. They don't have the same mandate as you and your goals aren't the same. They're trying to stay employed you're trying to compound your capital. Focus on how to do that better and you'll be fine"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Post_Market I love industrials and cyclicals and that's pretty much all i own and i can say that Fintwit is a lonely experience for me. More often than not i'm shouting into the void about $RTX or something and everyone else wants to talk about tech consumer etc"
X Link 2021-09-07T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If you spend enough time on twitter you begin to suspect that no one has ever caught a multiple fade on any stock that they own.ever. IME the multiple fade is usually 2-3x worse than the drawdown in fundamentals. Most losses come from multiples overcorrecting negatively"
X Link 2021-09-23T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Inspired by @PythiaR 's "miss" on $CMG and $ALGN here are some of the biggest investment misses of my life. Products/services i was using daily and should have been obvious"
X Link 2021-09-30T01:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Generally speaking in the stock market you get paid for uncertainty. If the outcome was certain it would be bid up accordingly (think investment grade bonds). Think of this next time you see people trashing a stock/sector as "unownable" (i.e. $BABA right now)"
X Link 2021-10-12T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Spending time away from twitter has made me rethink a lot of how I get information. Everyone seems to follow the same companies read the same books watch the same interviews/podcasts. I think i'm going to start leaning away from all of that. Don't need to consume more content"
X Link 2021-11-08T15:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Even though I originally wanted to run a "concentrated" portfolio I'm increasingly convinced that it's not a good idea for the majority of investors. I'm aiming for 50-100 stocks in my portfolio now"
X Link 2021-11-29T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This $ATVI deal is the quickest bang-to-bullets takeout I've ever had on a stock. Bought shares in November expecting to hold for at least [--] years while Diablo etc. were released. Than $MSFT comes and takes me out [--] days later. Ah well. I guess it's good"
X Link 2022-01-18T14:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Post_Market I think markets are smart on fwd 12-18 months but not beyond [--] years. So much fast money needs to be right TODAY that duration becomes a big edge. The fact is that no one really knows direction of the numbers beyond a year not even mgmt. You have to get biz quality right"
X Link 2022-02-09T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I remember when people used to troll Value investors for saying they looked for ideas in the 52-week low list.and now i see people passing those same lists around talking about how its a great place to look for growth stocks. Not "dunking on anyone" just interesting to observe"
X Link 2022-02-21T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Peak capitalism is sending your kid to full-time childcare so you can spend more time on your parenting blog"
X Link 2022-03-21T20:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MaldenDriveCap My brother was a hedge fund PM and decided to retire in his early 40's. He said the biggest problem with HF careers is that the skillset you develop is so narrow its hard to transition to anything outside Finance which contributes to the downshift in comp"
X Link 2022-03-25T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why is it that certain types of stocks get so popular amongst professional investors I'm thinking of $CVNA in particular. Why did everyone decide they needed to have a position either Long or Short I see this phenomenon a lot and i can't figure out what drives it"
X Link 2022-06-08T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Like shouldn't pro managers get paid for doing really unconventional things I understand crowding in $GOOG but crowding in demonstrably worse businesses like $CVNA are truly baffling to me"
X Link 2022-06-08T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Over time I've noticed a good investor acknowledges risks to their thesis and doesn''t need to "window dress" with mitigants or deny the risks exist. They simply say "yes that could happen and i would lose money in that scenario" and they've baked that into their calculus"
X Link 2022-06-28T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1) Pick industries where prediction is not necessary (i.e. Aerospace Engines Analog Semi's etc) because the product is inherently long-lived and necessary 2) Usually those industries have only a few players own them all (don't cherry pick) 3) Buy them when they're hated"
X Link 2022-07-04T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I've noticed that a lot of investors tend to "graduate" to increasing levels of abstraction and meta-games as they gain more experience and get further and further away from just a simple analysis of a business and valuation. Why is simplicity frowned upon in this business"
X Link 2022-07-21T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I absolutely feel the same way and let me demonstrate it with a somewhat simplified example. ROIC is a fantastic concept but I feel that it is not that useful to actually try and calculate it ROIC is a fantastic concept but I feel that it is not that useful to actually try and calculate it"
X Link 2022-08-29T21:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BillBrewsterTBB Most ppl way overthinking this just show up when you'll have the highest impact in-person. I only go in for C-level meetings retirement parties and strategy briefings. Have been called a high-performer even though I'm only in the office 30-40% of the time"
X Link 2023-02-23T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What i've learned from Fintwit over the years is that if you ever see an account pop up that is SOLELY dedicated to one stock usually with the acct owner saying they have 100%+ of their money in it that is a near perfect sign the stock is overhyped and will crater"
X Link 2023-03-20T23:47Z [----] followers, 19K engagements
"Why have people soured on $DPZ I remember when it was all the rage a few years ago now it's trading at nearly a record low P/FCF"
X Link 2023-04-17T13:23Z [----] followers, 47.1K engagements
"$PM currently trades at 14x 2024E FCF and consensus expects FCF/sh to compound at 12% from 2023-2025 (probably moderates a bit in the outyears but still likely to grow 7% or greater). In my opinion it's a complete lay-up i'm adding more at $95"
X Link 2023-04-21T17:27Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements
"LVMH at 20% FCF margins is surprising that's lower than almost every railroad (22-29%). I would have thought it would be closer to 30-50%"
X Link 2023-05-31T18:11Z [----] followers, 22.5K engagements
"Is IBKR better than Fidelity for personal accounts Specifically i'm interested in 1) Tracking performance Fidelity has a good tracker 2) Buying international tickers Fidelity only really let's you buy ADRs but if i wanted to own $LVMH directly it seems like IBKR is better"
X Link 2023-06-28T20:48Z [----] followers, 33K engagements
"Kering shares have gone nowhere since [----] despite 7bn increase in revenues 400-500m increase in FCF Shares out down 3% and dividend up 33%. There was a spike in share price during COVID but it's down now Why LVMH is 2.5x in that same timeframe with no "COVID spike""
X Link 2023-08-26T00:03Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements
"The term "margin of safety" has really dropped out of the investing lexicon these days. I remember back in 2009-2014 it was being thrown around everywhere. I don't think i've seen that phrase on twitter in well over [--] months now"
X Link 2023-09-07T14:04Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"Stocks from my watchlist i think are interesting here: $LHX $AME $DSDVY / $DSV-CSE $TDY $CSX $NSC $UNP $ROP $LVMUY / $MC-PAR $PM / $MO / $BTI $CNSWF / $CSU-TSE I've been buying/adding to all of these over the last few weeks"
X Link 2023-09-14T19:59Z [----] followers, 18.3K engagements
"This Ozempic narrative is out of control. That being said the 2nd derivative play on this would be to go long airlines. Each pound of weight savings saves the airline hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel costs over the airplanes operating life. Joking but not joking"
X Link 2023-10-13T04:46Z [----] followers, 86.8K engagements
"It is dawning on me that no one has ever posited that the secular trend of heavy passengers has probably been a [--] year headwind on airline profitability"
X Link 2023-10-13T04:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Getting people to like you is the easiest thing in the world 1) Learn basic manners 2) When someone tells you what they are interested in be interested in it and ask them questions Despite there only really being [--] rules"
X Link 2023-10-18T16:12Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"I'm not an uber $PYPL bull but this is almost word-for-word what people said about $MSFT in 2011-2015 Every time I look at PayPal $PYPL and get tempted to buy it I remind myself they paid $4 billion for Honey a browser add on for coupons. Core biz is okay but numerous awful acquisitions. Every time I look at PayPal $PYPL and get tempted to buy it I remind myself they paid $4 billion for Honey a browser add on for coupons. Core biz is okay but numerous awful acquisitions"
X Link 2023-10-26T13:36Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements
"Professional money mgmt trains you to create an opinion on a matter quickly and then to rigorously defend that opinion to make sure you get some names in the portfolio. I think this is a bad thing to train people to do"
X Link 2023-10-30T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"No shade but i've noticed that people with concentrated portfolios get increasingly emotionally "unhinged" about their stocks. They are too invested both figuratively and literally I've noticed it about some of my own investments even though i'm not running super concentrated"
X Link 2023-11-14T02:17Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements
"I rarely hear discourse on the quality of the earnings being capitalized in many stocks If a co sells [---] Widgets simply adding 6% sales growth next year implies they'll sell 100% of the widgets sold last year PLUS 6% more and that is not really a guarantee in a lot of biz's"
X Link 2023-12-14T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here is a pro-tip for buyside/sellside folks: There are an exceptional amount of corporate mgmt teams that would hire you to their staff just to explain "the market" to them. Finding an IR corp dev or strategist role (or getting them to make one for you) is a lay-up @bucketshopcap Problem with finance is once u leave u realize u have no other life skills @bucketshopcap Problem with finance is once u leave u realize u have no other life skills"
X Link 2023-12-18T00:04Z [----] followers, 80K engagements
"Open question to FinTwit What concepts topics or ideas are not adequately covered by popular investing books Could be anything from Valuation to industry selection or anything in between Leave as many ideas/replies in the comments as you'd like or DM me if you prefer"
X Link 2023-12-30T23:45Z [----] followers, 53.7K engagements
"The interesting part about owning "quality" stocks is that virtually all the bear cases amount to "well they can't do that forever" (TAM will run out/regulators will shut it down/competitors will enter) $CSU $ROP $TDG $HEI $V $MA $LVMUY $AME $IEX etc"
X Link 2024-01-17T22:17Z [----] followers, 37.9K engagements
"My complete stock watchlist Disclosure i own a lot of these the ones i don't own i will likely own in the future:"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, 68.1K engagements
"It's amazing how many ppl are repulsed by owning [--] stocks (like i do). I'm getting a lot of DM's saying "you should just own the index if you own [--] stocks" Since i started the strategy in [----] I'm beating the S&P500 85% of my individual purchases beat an equal amount of S&P"
X Link 2024-01-29T20:09Z [----] followers, 60.7K engagements
"Friends don't let friends buy Aerospace OEM manufacturers/suppliers"
X Link 2024-03-01T18:42Z [----] followers, 10K engagements
"I'm doing that thing again where i'm looking at 2026E numbers to try to justify buying stocks. Can we please end this bull market soon It's boring"
X Link 2024-03-26T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If a government official joining a defense contractor is bullish then $LMT $NOC $LHX should be trading at Infinity right now 🚨 Huge $PLTR Announcement🔮 Former Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher who was Chairman of the House Select Committee on Competition with the Chinese Communist Party just joined CNBC to announce: He is joining Palantir as Head of Defense Full clip from a few minutes ago👇 https://t.co/T92C6GDGzi 🚨 Huge $PLTR Announcement🔮 Former Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher who was Chairman of the House Select Committee on Competition with the Chinese Communist Party just joined CNBC to"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Has anyone ever seen any research that backs up the claims that [--] ) long term stock returns gravitate towards long-term underlying returns on capital 2) long term stock returns gravitate towards the sum of initial FCF yield + FCF/sh growth"
X Link 2024-12-06T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"While they sort of logically make sense my back-of-the-envelope math shows these heuristics have broken down over the last several years as multiple expansion has far surpassed earnings growth in a lot of sectors"
X Link 2024-12-06T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Nothing to do with COVID the Finance/consulting pipeline has become too codified now. Everyone knows how to look good on paper/network to get these jobs. Go outside the box and find non-traditional candidates to get real performers. I love scrappy kids from no-name schools Should we blame COVID for there being a massive disconnect between skill level and job expectations for pple on Wall Street Friend at one of the highest profile hedge fund launches in [----] is looking for an analyst in LA. He laments how hes interviewing kids from Goldman and https://t.co/ZyGSqo6vSW Should we blame COVID for"
X Link 2024-12-11T22:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Yes my gf has stage [--] cancer and is totally insane but she's a supermodel. We're about to break up.but you should date her Think about it once she beats the cancer and changes her whole personality you'll have a supermodel girlfriend that's perfect""
X Link 2026-01-20T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is how most people's investment pitches sound to me these days"
X Link 2026-01-20T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CapitalSpanc My tweet doesn't apply to Engine-makers/suppliers (which are awesome to own)"
X Link 2024-03-01T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LMT basically said point blank on the conf call they are going to win Future Vertical Lift you rarely hear a contractor say stuff like that for an active competition. Last time I heard talk like that was when $LDOS took N-GEN from $PRSP"
X Link 2021-07-26T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm not saying that having a process is bad. I absolutely think every investor should have "guardrails" to protect them from making bad decisions"
X Link 2021-09-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The problem with investing podcasts is that you'll never be able to pump out good investing ideas at the pace you'll need to publish episodes for your podcast to be successful. On a long enough timeline you become Jim Cramer"
X Link 2023-11-07T13:11Z [----] followers, 18.3K engagements
"I have a suggestion for business podcasters/interviewers: I have listened and read hundreds of interviews/podcasts/books about entrepreneurs/founders etc. The two most important things i want to hear are"
X Link 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Instead far too much time is spent retroactively analyzing decisions AFTER the founders have become objectively successful I routinely find the last 50% of biographies boring because of this"
X Link 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So if you have a podcast or are an interviewer spend more time talking about the early days and personal/family decisions it's way more interesting inspirational and educational for the target audience"
X Link 2024-05-30T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm finding that in the business world when someone uses this phrase it is almost always indicative of a bad work culture at their office"
X Link 2024-08-15T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also i'm laughing at the criticism that the rebrand doesn't include any Jaguar cars in it. The most famous commercial of all time is arguably "1984" by Apple which also didn't have an Macintosh in it"
X Link 2024-11-20T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This of course assumes I can trust what management is saying but given the past growth achieved and the strong secular microelectronics trend i have no reason not to believe that they can get DD growth once again"
X Link 2021-08-04T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Now the question of sizing comes up. $MRCY became my 3rd largest position at cost after last quarters drawdown. If i add any more money it will supplant $ROP as my 2nd largest position"
X Link 2021-08-04T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Guys i just bought a little $TMO because why the hell not"
X Link 2023-10-13T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Defense $NOC $LMT $LHX $MRCY $CACI $BWXT"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Since i keep getting this question here is my goal: Each individual purchase decision needs to outperform an equivalent amount of S&P500 purchased at the same time"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@marc_slans Answer is complex. $RTX has significant comm aero exposure so won't react the same but it has a great defense portfolio $NOC best overall defense position but execution has been a lil subpar need to have a long holding period $LMT and $LHX tied for next place Don't buy $GD"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"On my math if they CAGR their dividend/share at around 6% and use the remainder for share repo that means they'll buyback something like $11bn of shares from now through [----] and then maybe another $6.3bn in [----] itself"
X Link 2021-05-18T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Theoretically that means shares outstanding could come down from 1.53bn to 1.411bn by EOY [----]. At that point $RTX would be generating $7/share of FCF and the market would have to value that cash at a 16.5x for me to hit that $116 share price to give me my target return"
X Link 2021-05-18T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@jktadave Over time i have ended up being very concentrated as i gain more conviction on certain positions. But overall i maintain about [--] positions with an additional [--] on my watchlist. I think overtime i will own [---] different stocks"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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