#  @CeleritasRe Celeritas Research Celeritas Research posts on X about ai, if you, sap, $nvda the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1342027118037839876/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +207% - [--] Month [------] +71% - [--] Months [---------] +359% - [--] Year [---------] -22% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1342027118037839876/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -25% - [--] Month [--] +38% - [--] Months [---] +560% - [--] Year [---] +339% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1342027118037839876/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +6.20% - [--] Month [-----] +8.80% - [--] Months [-----] +55% - [--] Year [-----] +77% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1342027118037839876/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 49% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 19% [finance](/list/finance) 18% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 2% [currencies](/list/currencies) 2% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 1% **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai) 8%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 4%, [sap](/topic/sap) #633, [$nvda](/topic/$nvda) 4%, [core](/topic/core) 4%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 3%, [strong](/topic/strong) 3%, [$sap](/topic/$sap) #25, [$crwv](/topic/$crwv) 3% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@evrgn11112231](/creator/undefined) [@atelicinvest](/creator/undefined) [@rubicon59](/creator/undefined) [@stephenframpto9](/creator/undefined) [@calvinfroedge](/creator/undefined) [@rodrigoethe](/creator/undefined) [@kab604](/creator/undefined) [@darkfirecapital](/creator/undefined) [@ericseufert](/creator/undefined) [@aleabitoreddit](/creator/undefined) [@petermantas](/creator/undefined) [@larryjamieson](/creator/undefined) [@yummycenturyegg](/creator/undefined) [@citrini7](/creator/undefined) [@midwitcapital](/creator/undefined) [@baup0stgoat](/creator/undefined) [@ankurnagpal](/creator/undefined) [@bgurley](/creator/undefined) [@watwatwatwat](/creator/undefined) [@molecapital](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [SAP SE (SAP)](/topic/$sap) [CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Corp. (BAH)](/topic/$bah) [Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)](/topic/$enph) [SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG)](/topic/$sedg) [Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)](/topic/$pins) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM)](/topic/$stm) [Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK)](/topic/$wlk) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)](/topic/$lw) [Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA)](/topic/$axta) [Public Storage (PSA)](/topic/$psa) [Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)](/topic/$dbx) [Accenture (ACN)](/topic/$acn) [CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW)](/topic/$chrw) [BOX, INC. (BOX)](/topic/$box) [TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Unity Software Inc. (U)](/topic/$u) [Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)](/topic/$rcl) [Factset Research Systems, Inc. (FDS)](/topic/$fds) [Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN)](/topic/$stvn) [Canadian National Railway (CNI)](/topic/$cni) [Landstar System Inc (LSTR)](/topic/$lstr) [GitLab Inc. (GTLB)](/topic/$gtlb) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [HP Inc (HPQ)](/topic/hp-inc) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Fun thought exercise with $SNAP Sub. revenue was $232m in Q4 so $928m annualised This is mostly Snapchat+ and a bit from recently-launched Memories probably 90% blended GMs between the two That's $835m of "subscription segement" EBIT or $660m of NOPAT cont" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019359860622787024) 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "after a $LW earnings miss everyone on Twitter's a french fry expert for 24h and saw it after the +25% post earnings day-after-day grind higher . crickets" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019881813653553506) 2026-02-06T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Someone at the bank is not gonna have a good day today. This $AXTA chart is no bueno" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1990743537449607451) 2025-11-18T11:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "this is a fascinating chart of $PSA share px if you didn't have the stones to hold this through most peak COVID (i.e. summer [----] to summer 2021) you missed basically the entire 10y px return probably a lesson there" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1997755877504491814) 2025-12-07T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "people bought Lamb Weston they shoulda bought Lam Research" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2002498495572553772) 2025-12-20T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DBX $930m of LTM CFFO $309m of LTM SBC $621m of real LTM CFFO $14m of CapEx $129m of lease repayments $478m of real FCF $7b market cap 15x real LTM FCF for negative revs/GP growth" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2011729148268724268) 2026-01-15T09:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "the "AI is killing software" vibe is SO strong the market has actually forgotten AI is supposed to also be killing $ACN" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2012267595429286316) 2026-01-16T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I smell 🐄💩 at $CHRW If you are putting out a chart on all your many "AI agents" which are unlocking value left right and centre there is NO excuse for having charts in your slide deck that look as though they were made with [----] Excel" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2013389720990933073) 2026-01-19T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The $BOX guy is telling you in no uncertain terms that you should own some $SAP" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2013602232516632721) 2026-01-20T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting to see that $TDG FY26 EPS estimates are down 20% over the last [---] years DESPITE the company seeing as close to perfect conditions for the commercial aero aftermarket as we are likely to see in our lifetimes and the stock has shrugged it off completely" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2015060014873088325) 2026-01-24T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BAH "we're beginning to see some movement on the award activity on the civil side which we have not seen all year. So my cautiously optimistic take is that the market does feel like it's at an inflection point"" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2015786386943582317) 2026-01-26T13:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@kab604 @DarkfireCapital $FI is the new ticker for $FISV" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2018253313829966180) 2026-02-02T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Quick look at $U GAAP financials and" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2018336856824570317) 2026-02-02T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "honestly the thesis of when robots are running the world people will have more time to go on cruises is not that terrible $RCL" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2018784155010806085) 2026-02-03T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ENPH is in an amazing spot LT. AI is going to drive insatiable demand for power from the grid for DCs which will drive higher prices for electricity (already happening) which will drive more demand for rooftop solar been killing $SEDG for the last few years too ENPH is gonna double quickly ENPH is gonna double quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019013565856768108) 2026-02-04T11:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PINS & $SNAP should probably merge cut a ton of duplicative G&A + S&M share customer data/insights/graphs to target better re-route ads to the optimal surface across platforms at any given moment in time to drive better RoIs and monetization" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019020486601326707) 2026-02-04T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SAP has announced strategic investments in three leading generative AI innovators Aleph Alpha GmbH Anthropic and Cohere. From 07/23" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019044771797348769) 2026-02-04T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "don't get the reactions to these HMO prints everyone knows that the mgmt teams have no clue re cost trends no ability to reprice quickly no ability to forecast risk profile changes within pools given macro dislocations they miss they beat who knows but -30% on a single Q" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019739851839680521) 2026-02-06T11:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@eric_seufert should merge it with $PINS" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019776909240934439) 2026-02-06T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest if you were running $FDS what would you do to the product to take advantage of LLM capabilities / protect the moat/franchise" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019860517272334439) 2026-02-06T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@aleabitoreddit isn't $CRWV almost all contracted out under take-or pays so they (for now) have minimal exposure to spot market demand/prices" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019860680988356613) 2026-02-06T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "it's insane that ppl point to Q4 '25 results as evidence vibe coding isn't disrupting their fave s/w stock claude code exploded mid Dec u really think people vibe coded a product built GTM sold it deployed it & drove large customers to churn off old stuff in [--] wks over Xmas" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020197869534474586) 2026-02-07T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AMD EV is $390b [----] EBIT ex SBC (boomer alert) was $6.1b normalised tax rate is 13% so [----] real NOPAT was $5.3b 75x multiple GPUs were mid/high teens % of revenue in [----] ex GPU this is a HSD/LDD through cycle grower kinda punchy" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020829783534469121) 2026-02-09T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "themes i like r/n - [--] geopolitical instability ( $BAH) [--] biologics ( $STVN) [--] truck rates inflecting ( $CNI & $LSTR) [--] electricity inflation driving rooftop solar ( $ENPH + $SEDG) [--] CPU shortage ( $INTC) [--] power semis ( $STM) [--] global short-cycle rebound ( $IMCD & $AZE)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020910108029358176) 2026-02-09T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021220416874795187) 2026-02-10T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "what % of the AI CapEx boom is just a function of the top 10% of power users of AI just ctrl+c ctrl+v every query across 3-4 chatbots to see who comes back the first / best can't be 0%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021680043693387874) 2026-02-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@peter_mantas What do u think makes them differentiated vs other stablecoins (either those that exist or those that will be created)" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2021884210689323073) 2026-02-12T09:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Larryjamieson_ @yummyCenturyEgg there is a difference today vs in the past in the past to stand up a new CRA credibly you'd have needed 100s of analysts getting paid while you had zero revs today you can stand up a new CRA with [--] analysts and claude and pitch a cheaper/more modern solution to issuers" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2021891810864566628) 2026-02-12T10:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$30b EV now or 25% of Stripe $ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts $ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021920654472159714) 2026-02-12T12:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Citrini7 Starlink risk" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2022232532927103027) 2026-02-13T08:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest Tickers" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2022392879830962594) 2026-02-13T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@midwit_capital Why is this chart bullish for $GTLB" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019771738641383866) 2026-02-06T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Before joining $PYPL Lores was President and CEO of HP Inc HP. You just can't make this up. What planet does this board live on" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2018672999474344372) 2026-02-03T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ackman shooting out of the gate with a strong early contender for funniest slide of the year" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022394666960969836) 2026-02-13T19:37Z [----] followers, 120.5K engagements "and you thought covering trucks would be boring $HUBG found an accounting error that understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable by about $77M over the first nine months of [----] forcing a restatement of 1Q3Q25 results and delaying audited earnings. Analysts warn the issue likely extends into 4Q https://t.co/3PhtM1cO1c $HUBG found an accounting error that understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable by about $77M over the first nine months of [----] forcing a restatement of 1Q3Q25 results and delaying audited earnings. Analysts warn the issue likely extends" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2019729012264956101) 2026-02-06T11:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "one thing people seem to be confusing r/n capex pulled forward is not money blown okay you bought a generation or two too soon but you can always pull back the year after and let utilisation drift higher honestly better that than miss the revolution / leave customers hanging" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019754834736325075) 2026-02-06T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "lost money long Samsung in [----] thinking they'd qualify HBM @ $NVDA (took longer) but memory would get tight b/c of DC demand + die size penalty (took longer) lost money short Micron in 2025/26 thinking they'd get left out of $NVDA (they did) b/c memory did get tight after all" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019859878987108418) 2026-02-06T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Outperformance over. Dan Loeb is long SK Square/Hynix Dan Loeb is long SK Square/Hynix" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020494803377827992) 2026-02-08T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "it's actually pretty surprising Hock hasn't been more aggressive around public s/w M&A given (a) how much cash he's throwing off and (b) what he's proven he + team can do to s/w margins post acq" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020597912338870503) 2026-02-08T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I could listen to Italian CFOs all day long alf a billion of CapEx" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020873193406259695) 2026-02-09T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Adobe down to its January [----] EV/Sales" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021930900590629228) 2026-02-12T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Adyen ex cash is now at the S&P 500's NTM P/E multiple guiding for low 20s organic constant currency growth in [----] with 50%+ EBITDA margins going to 55%+ with CapEx/Sales 5% with a AAA mgmt team" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021934365325111602) 2026-02-12T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tell me youve not studied telecoms or airlines without telling me great businesses Huh Didn't realize that Dario said Cournot on the podcast either sorry i rarely listen to them lol I think that is pretty interesting and makes the most sense to me that it's cournot. It also means that the future industry dynamics is going to be pretty epic. Industries in cournot: Didn't realize that Dario said Cournot on the podcast either sorry i rarely listen to them lol I think that is pretty interesting and makes the most sense to me that it's cournot. It also means that the future industry dynamics is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023667011251761240) 2026-02-17T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@evrgn11112231 @Baup0stGOAT If it's true for SAP is it true for $ORCL too If AI progress peters out core DB/Apps biz will do just fine a la SAP If AI progress continues a pace OCI CapEx will seem smart in hindsight iirc $ORCL [--] turns cheaper on NTM P/E currently" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2012994516609880549) 2026-01-18T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rubicon59 Do they compete with $APP" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2013879458076246195) 2026-01-21T07:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "kinda funny that the same AI models and capabilities which are all of a sudden going to destroy half the SaaS companies out there seems to require ZERO incremental $NVDA chips" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2013973675788083342) 2026-01-21T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "if you're Vista / TB and you deploy a ton of $$ right now node a) CC destroys all software well no change your fund was never gonna generate a cent of carry anyway node b) CC doesn't destory all software generational bag achieved heads I win tails I don't lose any more" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2013994745597759673) 2026-01-21T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With $META bobbing around what looks like support at $600 finally got around to doing a bit of real maths LTM PAT is $59b That's $72b excluding some noise in taxes That's $87b excluding VR loses That would put the stock on 18x LTM core EPS" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014063279891456511) 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "but. we need to factor in CapEx That $87b goes to $42b when you swap D&A for CapEx which would imply 37x trailing real FCF which isn't obviously cheap even for such a high quality asset growing as fast as it is (low 20s over the LTM period)" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014063282215145674) 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "but. maybe we're not so far off peak CapEx If we normalise CapEx to 25% of Sales (the average post chat-GPT) that would imply normalise real FCF is $57b which puts the stock on 28x which is a not-so-crazy 1x PEG (LTM normalised real FCF grew 30% Y/Y last Q)" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014063283880317008) 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@StephenFrampto9 You need to factor in the cash they still have to pay for the second tranche of Asseco shares" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014063931497541914) 2026-01-21T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why has Mitsubishi Electric share px gone SO bonkers (stock is a 4x in three years) As far as I can tell the part (I think) that people are most excited about (gas turbines) is literally 5% of EBIT" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014079576821924351) 2026-01-21T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ankurnagpal @bgurley said it on a pod recently for startups / growth cos you're AI or you're nothing right now looks like he's right & this is in the latter bucket" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014085007023714784) 2026-01-21T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@evrgn11112231 I can 100% buy that logic but only when it leads to a follow-on question - what do you think the core biz would be growing at without MZ spending CapEx D&A" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014203386652975370) 2026-01-22T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@watwatwatwat Possibly but if Base44 has comparably good functionality and it gets bundled into core Wix not sure you should expect higher churn" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014394923483562184) 2026-01-22T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MoleCapital Tragedy that you dont have $MOTR on that list" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1359097608590012416) 2021-02-09T11:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$PTLO at this px. is close to replacement cost. EV of $840m vs [--] restuarnats imples EV/box of $9m vs historical build cost of $8m per box" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1957897746003984720) 2025-08-19T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It's averaged 22% EBITDA margins since Q1 [----] when it was created in its current form and CapEx is modest (15-20% of EBITDA). Its margins are holding up nicely this year in a tough market for most newbuild exposed materials companies" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1973812464094687715) 2025-10-02T18:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think it's credibly a 10x EBITDA asset. $MAS $FBIN $TREX & $JHX are all there or higher. That would equate to $10b of value for HIP" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1973812465826922956) 2025-10-02T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Let's get this straight. [--] $LRCX is saying upsiding CY25 WFE on HBM [--] $GOOG is going bonkers on CY26 CoWoS orders and yet. Suss MicroTec - $SMHN - is still bouncing around in the 30s. I will repost this when it hits [--] in 6m" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1981258048283857221) 2025-10-23T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@UpslopeCapital FTI Consulting" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1981667067104555327) 2025-10-24T10:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "interesting situ in x-border payments $WU is way down because of cos like $RELY $RELY is way down because of stablecoins $CRCL is down because well crypto's blown up duh I have no idea which [--] (or [--] or 3) co wins here LT but just buying all [--] seems you're gonna win somehow" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1991222438093353038) 2025-11-19T19:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@calvinfroedge haven't the chinese nuked the acetic acid market completely new CEO may be great but he can't change that nor magic away the debt from the horrific $DD deal" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1993079665213219315) 2025-11-24T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@calvinfroedge LTM FCF is $994m & debt as of last Q is $11.4b $WLK looks like the most interesting of the US chems to me conservatively run given founding family still owns most of it trades at 1x invested capital building products biz underappreciated" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1993086369317765560) 2025-11-24T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sigmazerocap Whats an example of a contra-pod idea today $WLK springs to mind maybe $STM too in semis" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1995139204985262144) 2025-11-30T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "interesting datapoint for $RGR from $SPWH ER "These gains were partially offset by a sales mix shift toward lower-margin firearms and ammunition which have a lower gross margin andlower Camping sales which has a higher gross margin."" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1996872525817778307) 2025-12-05T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I find it hard to believe that $BH isn't coming for 10% of $CBRL after that print & at this px" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/1998700824763969773) 2025-12-10T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@taobanker Thanks Whats an example" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/1998752811652387167) 2025-12-10T13:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Jeff Sprecher watching $LSEG drift lower" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2000702252122505413) 2025-12-15T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GEO being back to pre Trump px is surprising" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2003807921558425639) 2025-12-24T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jukan05 Bad for Qnity and Entegris" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2008795624486109287) 2026-01-07T06:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lisa is amazing but let's do some math. They gave away 26% of AMD for Xilinx. That's $88b of market cap today. What did they get Xilinx did $3.2b of revneue in its last FY pre deal" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2008911812264177743) 2026-01-07T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MRVL really is shockingly hated for a stock that's seen LTM data centre revs go from $1b in FY21 (YE 06/21) to almost $6b as of last Q" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2010801317196021847) 2026-01-12T19:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Let's play the "pay for my substack" to guess the ticker game jk. But here's what I'd say if I was. recent IPO that ✈ under the radar 10x NOPAT 20% rev growth founder still involved large net cash position scale economies shared" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2012265169775153323) 2026-01-16T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WLTH Wealthfront One of the OG robo advisors provides 1) automated low-cost indexing + tax-lossharvesting which is 25% of revs & 2) high-APY FDIC-insured flexible cash accounts which is 75% of revs their tax-loss harvesting product pays for its fees many times over" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2012265171473846651) 2026-01-16T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KoyfinCharts i have a good suggestion in transcript search you should have a bulk download option where you can tick a little checkbox on the right or left and then download all the ones you've checked if/when you want" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2013196096336453835) 2026-01-19T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Long $SAP short $IBM is a NO brainer 5y trade" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2013582835903283619) 2026-01-20T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@evrgn11112231 do you have any insights into how to handicap normalised CapEx/Sales here" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2014063285558034761) 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@StephenFrampto9 How are you getting to 822m CAD of NTM EBITDA" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2014064152147370074) 2026-01-21T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lot of hating on $TTD here these days. JG is a killer guys don't count them out. No position" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2015888403233898757) 2026-01-26T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CRWV tactical long compelling r/n $NVDA stake creates psych floor + reinforces pref partner status SA ClusterMax shows its not pure commodity GPU rental prices going up not down DRAM bottleneck + agents likely to perpetuate that a while Short interest still high at 20% of FF" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016211708713251068) 2026-01-27T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ContrarianCurse well they did say with a straight face how full the software acquisition pipeline has become lately. 🤡 alert" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016212185232326960) 2026-01-27T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@KarstResearch Any thoguhts on $BWIN down here" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016461546705072563) 2026-01-28T10:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Kinda funny how $MU sold that Lehi fab to $TXN back in [----] when it was analog to the moon and beyond Bet they wish theyd kept it" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016476720635789367) 2026-01-28T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Buy the earnings beats too since theyll keep running if the story is clean So Just buy everything :) Buy every earnings dip 5% in sectors people like. Do not in the sectors people dont. Seems like another good strategy. Buy every earnings dip 5% in sectors people like. Do not in the sectors people dont. Seems like another good strategy" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016794158761971930) 2026-01-29T08:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Turns out $IBM is short for Invincible Beat Machine" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016860881351508457) 2026-01-29T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "there are some big inconsistencies in the mkt today I would love an explanation for ex - last 6m = $MU to the 🌙 but NVDA/AVGO/AMD flat last 3m = software tanking because vibe coding (runnning on GPUs) is going to create & reallocate $1t+ of SaaS EV but ORCL/CRWV/NBIS down" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016985688562889056) 2026-01-29T21:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@icemancapital so if quality is relatively cheaper than usual and growth is relatively cheaper than usual then what's more expensive - crappy no-growth companies" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2016985962568425704) 2026-01-29T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Jensen buying shares in $CRWV below market as he gets ready to allocate them 2/3 of the first batch of Rubins" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2017335862946632079) 2026-01-30T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If $NVDA / $OAI relationship goes down the tube logical to think that $AMD benefits handsomely. *TALKS OVER $100B OPENAI NVIDIA DEAL STALL: WSJ *TALKS OVER $100B OPENAI NVIDIA DEAL STALL: WSJ" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2017541825532227666) 2026-01-31T10:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@partners_road What will BV per share be when that happens :) perhaps $400 ;)" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2017623644579455235) 2026-01-31T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@rubicon59 Have you compared CSU vs TOI TOI has a strong large shareholder Probably more greenfield M&A opportunity in Europe Perhaps less risk of vibe coding disruption (Europe being [--] years behind) Same multiple of FCFA2S Any reason to prefer CSU" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2018573274125570426) 2026-02-03T06:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Investmentideen @rja907 20% cash yield is different to 20% embedded IRR if you think FCF grows at 10% per annum you only need a 10% cash yield for that to be competitive with a 20% cash yield acquisition that has [--] growth no" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2019003360901464096) 2026-02-04T11:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Struggle to see the $SMCI short case here. GMs & RoICs have erased their post-ChatGPT spike. Co. just printed record GP $s. Revs grew 123% Y/Y + are guided to 167% Y/Y next Q. Every customer wants more compute. Agnostic between GPU vendors. 12x NTM P/E. Not even expensive" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2019055089738981568) 2026-02-04T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RodriGo_ethe Do you understand why results were so bad vs expectations again These guys are consistently behind the curve on whats happening with cost trend" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2019687498209980916) 2026-02-06T08:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RodriGo_ethe did you have much confidence after last Q feels like they've been consistently wrong forecasting cost inflation + pool risk profile mix-shifts for the last 18m this was just more of the same - no" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2019713743249399968) 2026-02-06T10:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why is $INTC getting smashed today" [X Link](https://x.com/CeleritasRe/status/2020870182940315862) 2026-02-09T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "love or hate @elonmusk you have to respect that his banger quote from the epstein files was basically "stop wasting my time with your sex party invites i've got companies to run"" [X Link](https://x.com/PetramcoC/status/2020888419858280456) 2026-02-09T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Imagine they run the ads biz at GAAP breakeven (optimistic I know.) and subscriptions are pure margin EV is $11b so you're paying pay 16x subscription NOPAT & that sub. revenue grew 62% Y/Y last quarter The pace of change at the co. is suboptimal but the direction is correct" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019359862359212380) 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "plus this is before the Perplexity deal (potentially $100m of pure profit per Q.) which may or may not come to pass" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019359864238276631) 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@CeleritasRe Celeritas Research
Celeritas Research posts on X about ai, if you, sap, $nvda the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +207%
- [--] Month [------] +71%
- [--] Months [---------] +359%
- [--] Year [---------] -22%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -25%
- [--] Month [--] +38%
- [--] Months [---] +560%
- [--] Year [---] +339%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +6.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +8.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +55%
- [--] Year [-----] +77%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 49% technology brands 19% finance 18% cryptocurrencies 2% currencies 2% social networks 1% automotive brands 1% celebrities 1%
Social topic influence ai 8%, if you 4%, sap #633, $nvda 4%, core 4%, in the 4%, this is 3%, strong 3%, $sap #25, $crwv 3%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @evrgn11112231 @atelicinvest @rubicon59 @stephenframpto9 @calvinfroedge @rodrigoethe @kab604 @darkfirecapital @ericseufert @aleabitoreddit @petermantas @larryjamieson @yummycenturyegg @citrini7 @midwitcapital @baup0stgoat @ankurnagpal @bgurley @watwatwatwat @molecapital
Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) SAP SE (SAP) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Corp. (BAH) Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Intel Corporation (INTC) STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK) IBM (IBM) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Public Storage (PSA) Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Accenture (ACN) CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) BOX, INC. (BOX) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Fiserv, Inc. (FI) Fiserv Inc (FISV) Unity Software Inc. (U) Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Factset Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) Canadian National Railway (CNI) Landstar System Inc (LSTR) GitLab Inc. (GTLB) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) HP Inc (HPQ)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Fun thought exercise with $SNAP Sub. revenue was $232m in Q4 so $928m annualised This is mostly Snapchat+ and a bit from recently-launched Memories probably 90% blended GMs between the two That's $835m of "subscription segement" EBIT or $660m of NOPAT cont"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"after a $LW earnings miss everyone on Twitter's a french fry expert for 24h and saw it after the +25% post earnings day-after-day grind higher . crickets"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Someone at the bank is not gonna have a good day today. This $AXTA chart is no bueno"
X Link 2025-11-18T11:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"this is a fascinating chart of $PSA share px if you didn't have the stones to hold this through most peak COVID (i.e. summer [----] to summer 2021) you missed basically the entire 10y px return probably a lesson there"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"people bought Lamb Weston they shoulda bought Lam Research"
X Link 2025-12-20T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DBX $930m of LTM CFFO $309m of LTM SBC $621m of real LTM CFFO $14m of CapEx $129m of lease repayments $478m of real FCF $7b market cap 15x real LTM FCF for negative revs/GP growth"
X Link 2026-01-15T09:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"the "AI is killing software" vibe is SO strong the market has actually forgotten AI is supposed to also be killing $ACN"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I smell 🐄💩 at $CHRW If you are putting out a chart on all your many "AI agents" which are unlocking value left right and centre there is NO excuse for having charts in your slide deck that look as though they were made with [----] Excel"
X Link 2026-01-19T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The $BOX guy is telling you in no uncertain terms that you should own some $SAP"
X Link 2026-01-20T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting to see that $TDG FY26 EPS estimates are down 20% over the last [---] years DESPITE the company seeing as close to perfect conditions for the commercial aero aftermarket as we are likely to see in our lifetimes and the stock has shrugged it off completely"
X Link 2026-01-24T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BAH "we're beginning to see some movement on the award activity on the civil side which we have not seen all year. So my cautiously optimistic take is that the market does feel like it's at an inflection point""
X Link 2026-01-26T13:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@kab604 @DarkfireCapital $FI is the new ticker for $FISV"
X Link 2026-02-02T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Quick look at $U GAAP financials and"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"honestly the thesis of when robots are running the world people will have more time to go on cruises is not that terrible $RCL"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ENPH is in an amazing spot LT. AI is going to drive insatiable demand for power from the grid for DCs which will drive higher prices for electricity (already happening) which will drive more demand for rooftop solar been killing $SEDG for the last few years too ENPH is gonna double quickly ENPH is gonna double quickly"
X Link 2026-02-04T11:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PINS & $SNAP should probably merge cut a ton of duplicative G&A + S&M share customer data/insights/graphs to target better re-route ads to the optimal surface across platforms at any given moment in time to drive better RoIs and monetization"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SAP has announced strategic investments in three leading generative AI innovators Aleph Alpha GmbH Anthropic and Cohere. From 07/23"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"don't get the reactions to these HMO prints everyone knows that the mgmt teams have no clue re cost trends no ability to reprice quickly no ability to forecast risk profile changes within pools given macro dislocations they miss they beat who knows but -30% on a single Q"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@eric_seufert should merge it with $PINS"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest if you were running $FDS what would you do to the product to take advantage of LLM capabilities / protect the moat/franchise"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit isn't $CRWV almost all contracted out under take-or pays so they (for now) have minimal exposure to spot market demand/prices"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"it's insane that ppl point to Q4 '25 results as evidence vibe coding isn't disrupting their fave s/w stock claude code exploded mid Dec u really think people vibe coded a product built GTM sold it deployed it & drove large customers to churn off old stuff in [--] wks over Xmas"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMD EV is $390b [----] EBIT ex SBC (boomer alert) was $6.1b normalised tax rate is 13% so [----] real NOPAT was $5.3b 75x multiple GPUs were mid/high teens % of revenue in [----] ex GPU this is a HSD/LDD through cycle grower kinda punchy"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"themes i like r/n - [--] geopolitical instability ( $BAH) [--] biologics ( $STVN) [--] truck rates inflecting ( $CNI & $LSTR) [--] electricity inflation driving rooftop solar ( $ENPH + $SEDG) [--] CPU shortage ( $INTC) [--] power semis ( $STM) [--] global short-cycle rebound ( $IMCD & $AZE)"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"what % of the AI CapEx boom is just a function of the top 10% of power users of AI just ctrl+c ctrl+v every query across 3-4 chatbots to see who comes back the first / best can't be 0%"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@peter_mantas What do u think makes them differentiated vs other stablecoins (either those that exist or those that will be created)"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Larryjamieson_ @yummyCenturyEgg there is a difference today vs in the past in the past to stand up a new CRA credibly you'd have needed 100s of analysts getting paid while you had zero revs today you can stand up a new CRA with [--] analysts and claude and pitch a cheaper/more modern solution to issuers"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$30b EV now or 25% of Stripe $ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts $ADYEY share px is really mental in light of this Stripe tender (@ $140b) $41b EV (only including corp cash) you're paying 30% of the EV for a biz (a) growing at identical rates (b) with less customer concentration and (c) with way better margins (one can only assume) nuts"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Citrini7 Starlink risk"
X Link 2026-02-13T08:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest Tickers"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@midwit_capital Why is this chart bullish for $GTLB"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Before joining $PYPL Lores was President and CEO of HP Inc HP. You just can't make this up. What planet does this board live on"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ackman shooting out of the gate with a strong early contender for funniest slide of the year"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:37Z [----] followers, 120.5K engagements
"and you thought covering trucks would be boring $HUBG found an accounting error that understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable by about $77M over the first nine months of [----] forcing a restatement of 1Q3Q25 results and delaying audited earnings. Analysts warn the issue likely extends into 4Q https://t.co/3PhtM1cO1c $HUBG found an accounting error that understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable by about $77M over the first nine months of [----] forcing a restatement of 1Q3Q25 results and delaying audited earnings. Analysts warn the issue likely extends"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"one thing people seem to be confusing r/n capex pulled forward is not money blown okay you bought a generation or two too soon but you can always pull back the year after and let utilisation drift higher honestly better that than miss the revolution / leave customers hanging"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"lost money long Samsung in [----] thinking they'd qualify HBM @ $NVDA (took longer) but memory would get tight b/c of DC demand + die size penalty (took longer) lost money short Micron in 2025/26 thinking they'd get left out of $NVDA (they did) b/c memory did get tight after all"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Outperformance over. Dan Loeb is long SK Square/Hynix Dan Loeb is long SK Square/Hynix"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"it's actually pretty surprising Hock hasn't been more aggressive around public s/w M&A given (a) how much cash he's throwing off and (b) what he's proven he + team can do to s/w margins post acq"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I could listen to Italian CFOs all day long alf a billion of CapEx"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Adobe down to its January [----] EV/Sales"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Adyen ex cash is now at the S&P 500's NTM P/E multiple guiding for low 20s organic constant currency growth in [----] with 50%+ EBITDA margins going to 55%+ with CapEx/Sales 5% with a AAA mgmt team"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tell me youve not studied telecoms or airlines without telling me great businesses Huh Didn't realize that Dario said Cournot on the podcast either sorry i rarely listen to them lol I think that is pretty interesting and makes the most sense to me that it's cournot. It also means that the future industry dynamics is going to be pretty epic. Industries in cournot: Didn't realize that Dario said Cournot on the podcast either sorry i rarely listen to them lol I think that is pretty interesting and makes the most sense to me that it's cournot. It also means that the future industry dynamics is"
X Link 2026-02-17T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@evrgn11112231 @Baup0stGOAT If it's true for SAP is it true for $ORCL too If AI progress peters out core DB/Apps biz will do just fine a la SAP If AI progress continues a pace OCI CapEx will seem smart in hindsight iirc $ORCL [--] turns cheaper on NTM P/E currently"
X Link 2026-01-18T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rubicon59 Do they compete with $APP"
X Link 2026-01-21T07:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"kinda funny that the same AI models and capabilities which are all of a sudden going to destroy half the SaaS companies out there seems to require ZERO incremental $NVDA chips"
X Link 2026-01-21T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"if you're Vista / TB and you deploy a ton of $$ right now node a) CC destroys all software well no change your fund was never gonna generate a cent of carry anyway node b) CC doesn't destory all software generational bag achieved heads I win tails I don't lose any more"
X Link 2026-01-21T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With $META bobbing around what looks like support at $600 finally got around to doing a bit of real maths LTM PAT is $59b That's $72b excluding some noise in taxes That's $87b excluding VR loses That would put the stock on 18x LTM core EPS"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"but. we need to factor in CapEx That $87b goes to $42b when you swap D&A for CapEx which would imply 37x trailing real FCF which isn't obviously cheap even for such a high quality asset growing as fast as it is (low 20s over the LTM period)"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"but. maybe we're not so far off peak CapEx If we normalise CapEx to 25% of Sales (the average post chat-GPT) that would imply normalise real FCF is $57b which puts the stock on 28x which is a not-so-crazy 1x PEG (LTM normalised real FCF grew 30% Y/Y last Q)"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@StephenFrampto9 You need to factor in the cash they still have to pay for the second tranche of Asseco shares"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why has Mitsubishi Electric share px gone SO bonkers (stock is a 4x in three years) As far as I can tell the part (I think) that people are most excited about (gas turbines) is literally 5% of EBIT"
X Link 2026-01-21T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ankurnagpal @bgurley said it on a pod recently for startups / growth cos you're AI or you're nothing right now looks like he's right & this is in the latter bucket"
X Link 2026-01-21T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@evrgn11112231 I can 100% buy that logic but only when it leads to a follow-on question - what do you think the core biz would be growing at without MZ spending CapEx D&A"
X Link 2026-01-22T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@watwatwatwat Possibly but if Base44 has comparably good functionality and it gets bundled into core Wix not sure you should expect higher churn"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MoleCapital Tragedy that you dont have $MOTR on that list"
X Link 2021-02-09T11:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$PTLO at this px. is close to replacement cost. EV of $840m vs [--] restuarnats imples EV/box of $9m vs historical build cost of $8m per box"
X Link 2025-08-19T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's averaged 22% EBITDA margins since Q1 [----] when it was created in its current form and CapEx is modest (15-20% of EBITDA). Its margins are holding up nicely this year in a tough market for most newbuild exposed materials companies"
X Link 2025-10-02T18:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think it's credibly a 10x EBITDA asset. $MAS $FBIN $TREX & $JHX are all there or higher. That would equate to $10b of value for HIP"
X Link 2025-10-02T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Let's get this straight. [--] $LRCX is saying upsiding CY25 WFE on HBM [--] $GOOG is going bonkers on CY26 CoWoS orders and yet. Suss MicroTec - $SMHN - is still bouncing around in the 30s. I will repost this when it hits [--] in 6m"
X Link 2025-10-23T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@UpslopeCapital FTI Consulting"
X Link 2025-10-24T10:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"interesting situ in x-border payments $WU is way down because of cos like $RELY $RELY is way down because of stablecoins $CRCL is down because well crypto's blown up duh I have no idea which [--] (or [--] or 3) co wins here LT but just buying all [--] seems you're gonna win somehow"
X Link 2025-11-19T19:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@calvinfroedge haven't the chinese nuked the acetic acid market completely new CEO may be great but he can't change that nor magic away the debt from the horrific $DD deal"
X Link 2025-11-24T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@calvinfroedge LTM FCF is $994m & debt as of last Q is $11.4b $WLK looks like the most interesting of the US chems to me conservatively run given founding family still owns most of it trades at 1x invested capital building products biz underappreciated"
X Link 2025-11-24T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sigmazerocap Whats an example of a contra-pod idea today $WLK springs to mind maybe $STM too in semis"
X Link 2025-11-30T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"interesting datapoint for $RGR from $SPWH ER "These gains were partially offset by a sales mix shift toward lower-margin firearms and ammunition which have a lower gross margin andlower Camping sales which has a higher gross margin.""
X Link 2025-12-05T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I find it hard to believe that $BH isn't coming for 10% of $CBRL after that print & at this px"
X Link 2025-12-10T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@taobanker Thanks Whats an example"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jeff Sprecher watching $LSEG drift lower"
X Link 2025-12-15T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO being back to pre Trump px is surprising"
X Link 2025-12-24T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jukan05 Bad for Qnity and Entegris"
X Link 2026-01-07T06:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lisa is amazing but let's do some math. They gave away 26% of AMD for Xilinx. That's $88b of market cap today. What did they get Xilinx did $3.2b of revneue in its last FY pre deal"
X Link 2026-01-07T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MRVL really is shockingly hated for a stock that's seen LTM data centre revs go from $1b in FY21 (YE 06/21) to almost $6b as of last Q"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Let's play the "pay for my substack" to guess the ticker game jk. But here's what I'd say if I was. recent IPO that ✈ under the radar 10x NOPAT 20% rev growth founder still involved large net cash position scale economies shared"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WLTH Wealthfront One of the OG robo advisors provides 1) automated low-cost indexing + tax-lossharvesting which is 25% of revs & 2) high-APY FDIC-insured flexible cash accounts which is 75% of revs their tax-loss harvesting product pays for its fees many times over"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KoyfinCharts i have a good suggestion in transcript search you should have a bulk download option where you can tick a little checkbox on the right or left and then download all the ones you've checked if/when you want"
X Link 2026-01-19T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $SAP short $IBM is a NO brainer 5y trade"
X Link 2026-01-20T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@evrgn11112231 do you have any insights into how to handicap normalised CapEx/Sales here"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@StephenFrampto9 How are you getting to 822m CAD of NTM EBITDA"
X Link 2026-01-21T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lot of hating on $TTD here these days. JG is a killer guys don't count them out. No position"
X Link 2026-01-26T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRWV tactical long compelling r/n $NVDA stake creates psych floor + reinforces pref partner status SA ClusterMax shows its not pure commodity GPU rental prices going up not down DRAM bottleneck + agents likely to perpetuate that a while Short interest still high at 20% of FF"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ContrarianCurse well they did say with a straight face how full the software acquisition pipeline has become lately. 🤡 alert"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@KarstResearch Any thoguhts on $BWIN down here"
X Link 2026-01-28T10:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Kinda funny how $MU sold that Lehi fab to $TXN back in [----] when it was analog to the moon and beyond Bet they wish theyd kept it"
X Link 2026-01-28T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Buy the earnings beats too since theyll keep running if the story is clean So Just buy everything :) Buy every earnings dip 5% in sectors people like. Do not in the sectors people dont. Seems like another good strategy. Buy every earnings dip 5% in sectors people like. Do not in the sectors people dont. Seems like another good strategy"
X Link 2026-01-29T08:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Turns out $IBM is short for Invincible Beat Machine"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"there are some big inconsistencies in the mkt today I would love an explanation for ex - last 6m = $MU to the 🌙 but NVDA/AVGO/AMD flat last 3m = software tanking because vibe coding (runnning on GPUs) is going to create & reallocate $1t+ of SaaS EV but ORCL/CRWV/NBIS down"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@icemancapital so if quality is relatively cheaper than usual and growth is relatively cheaper than usual then what's more expensive - crappy no-growth companies"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jensen buying shares in $CRWV below market as he gets ready to allocate them 2/3 of the first batch of Rubins"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If $NVDA / $OAI relationship goes down the tube logical to think that $AMD benefits handsomely. *TALKS OVER $100B OPENAI NVIDIA DEAL STALL: WSJ *TALKS OVER $100B OPENAI NVIDIA DEAL STALL: WSJ"
X Link 2026-01-31T10:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@partners_road What will BV per share be when that happens :) perhaps $400 ;)"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@rubicon59 Have you compared CSU vs TOI TOI has a strong large shareholder Probably more greenfield M&A opportunity in Europe Perhaps less risk of vibe coding disruption (Europe being [--] years behind) Same multiple of FCFA2S Any reason to prefer CSU"
X Link 2026-02-03T06:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investmentideen @rja907 20% cash yield is different to 20% embedded IRR if you think FCF grows at 10% per annum you only need a 10% cash yield for that to be competitive with a 20% cash yield acquisition that has [--] growth no"
X Link 2026-02-04T11:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Struggle to see the $SMCI short case here. GMs & RoICs have erased their post-ChatGPT spike. Co. just printed record GP $s. Revs grew 123% Y/Y + are guided to 167% Y/Y next Q. Every customer wants more compute. Agnostic between GPU vendors. 12x NTM P/E. Not even expensive"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RodriGo_ethe Do you understand why results were so bad vs expectations again These guys are consistently behind the curve on whats happening with cost trend"
X Link 2026-02-06T08:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RodriGo_ethe did you have much confidence after last Q feels like they've been consistently wrong forecasting cost inflation + pool risk profile mix-shifts for the last 18m this was just more of the same - no"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why is $INTC getting smashed today"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"love or hate @elonmusk you have to respect that his banger quote from the epstein files was basically "stop wasting my time with your sex party invites i've got companies to run""
X Link 2026-02-09T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Imagine they run the ads biz at GAAP breakeven (optimistic I know.) and subscriptions are pure margin EV is $11b so you're paying pay 16x subscription NOPAT & that sub. revenue grew 62% Y/Y last quarter The pace of change at the co. is suboptimal but the direction is correct"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"plus this is before the Perplexity deal (potentially $100m of pure profit per Q.) which may or may not come to pass"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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