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# ![@CedarStResearch Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::752268654583001092.png) @CedarStResearch Cedar Street Research

Cedar Street Research has been discussing various stocks in the insurance industry. One of the most notable mentions is $WRB, which has seen significant buying activity, potentially driven by Japanese investors. Additionally, $ERIE has been criticized for its valuation, underwriting, and capital management, with some expressing confusion about its high price-to-earnings ratio.

### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/interactions)
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### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/posts_active)
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### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/followers)
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### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXXX% [finance](/list/finance)  XXXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[$wrb](/topic/$wrb) #2, [insurance](/topic/insurance) #625, [$arx](/topic/$arx) #14, [$aig](/topic/$aig) #2, [$ori](/topic/$ori) #44, [$goog](/topic/$goog) #45, [$asic](/topic/$asic) #2, [business](/topic/business) 5%, [$ajg](/topic/$ajg) 4.38%, [$bro](/topic/$bro) XXXX%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@veridivus124444](/creator/undefined) [@subtleinduction](/creator/undefined) [@saynototrading](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@wstvillrefugee](/creator/undefined) [@djebitda](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@hettygreen2020](/creator/undefined) [@dj_ebitda](/creator/undefined) [@jasonkint](/creator/undefined) [@draftkings](/creator/undefined) [@danielsethlewis](/creator/undefined) [@acipartnerhship](/creator/undefined) [@davyinvests](/creator/undefined) [@mattscottcap](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@linglingfool](/creator/undefined) [@navigatorsaint](/creator/undefined) [@slamcandie](/creator/undefined) [@coverager](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[W R Berkley Corp (WRB)](/topic/$wrb) [Accelerant Holdings (ARX)](/topic/$arx) [American International Group Inc (AIG)](/topic/$aig) [Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)](/topic/$ori) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC)](/topic/$asic) [Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)](/topic/$ajg) [Neurobro (BRO)](/topic/$bro) [Neenah, Inc. Common Stock (NP)](/topic/$np) [Palomar Holdings, Inc. Common stock (PLMR)](/topic/$plmr) [Cheeseball (CB)](/topic/$cb) [Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC)](/topic/$mmc) [Maxcoin (MAX)](/topic/$max) [RLI Corp. (RLI)](/topic/$rli) [Aon PLC (AON)](/topic/$aon) [Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC)](/topic/$ambc) [Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE)](/topic/$erie) [Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL)](/topic/$agl) [Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)](/topic/$acgl) [Ares Protocol (ARES)](/topic/$ares) [Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW)](/topic/$wtw) [Progressive Corp (PGR)](/topic/$pgr) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG)](/topic/$hig) [The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BWIN)](/topic/$bwin) [Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GSHD)](/topic/$gshd) [Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)](/topic/$lmnd) [Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)](/topic/$aiz) [Elevance Health Inc (ELV)](/topic/$elv) [Ryan Specialty Group, Inc. (RYAN)](/topic/$ryan) [Palantir (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"P&C brokers finally starting to look interesting again $AJG $AON $MMC $WTW $BWIN $TWFG $GSHD $BRO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1986169871705460864)  2025-11-05T20:32Z 3064 followers, 4314 engagements


"Dumped my $AMBC these guys are a joke"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1973019709995122909)  2025-09-30T13:38Z 3047 followers, 1593 engagements


"I feel like $AMBC management team watched Idiocracy on Netflix two nights ago and thought that they should take a page out of President Camacho's - Brawndo playbook "but we have NOL's""  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1973052257684873247)  2025-09-30T15:48Z 3047 followers, 1206 engagements


"@boujee_banker $ASIC $ARX $SLDE all took a nose dive from what bankers priced them at. I wish $NP the best if the momentum is nuts I might trade the momentum quickly and try and catch it if it falls like every other P&C IPO this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1973488894663598558)  2025-10-01T20:43Z 3046 followers, XXX engagements


"The sushi trade is real will be interesting to see how Mitsui strategically bids up $WRB overtime as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1974316148662706397)  2025-10-04T03:30Z 3046 followers, 1962 engagements


"Another embedded renters solution I remember talking to Alex a long time ago when they were building this product at Boost. Glad its working out. $LMND $PGR $AIZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1974476799238177110)  2025-10-04T14:08Z 3047 followers, XXX engagements


"I'm surprised the analyst community is a slightly trailing the sushi trade going on with $WRB. I'm a big advocate of the potential for cost of capital synergies with this one once it's flushed out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1975937893630915053)  2025-10-08T14:54Z 3046 followers, 1194 engagements


"Closed $ERIE bought some more $WRB. Will be adding some excess cash to $GOOG as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1978874658607743247)  2025-10-16T17:24Z 3046 followers, 1045 engagements


"Sold some $ELV today as well I made a pretty fast +15% on this one. Will be spreading it across $ORI $WRB and $GOOG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1978880942686052510)  2025-10-16T17:49Z 3046 followers, 2364 engagements


"Had to check my body for bullet holes These days happen. Still up this year is what it is. Holding strong sold some positions I was up on and put the excess cash into $WRB $ORI $GOOG today. Found an interesting sonar/lidar/battery storage company I like today as well (haven't posted on the name yet) but will provide an update after I complete some more DD and make a decision"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1978919952624291954)  2025-10-16T20:24Z 3046 followers, 2205 engagements


"Interesting that when a stock is near its all time high such as $WRB the market would rather see buybacks at any level even though any rationale investor would much rather buy it at a floor than the ceiling. The Berkeleys are sharp operators and seem to have a lot of excess capital to pay a special dividend in lieu of a repurchase at an ATH. As a long-term shareholder I agree. Very solid Q3 print with a boost from duration extension from 2.8yrs to 2.9yrs something Ive harped on for awhile with commercial carriers anticipating Fed rate cuts. New money yields 5%. Mitsui still lurking in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1980609726363677018)  2025-10-21T12:18Z 3046 followers, 1658 engagements


"One of the main reasons I like $WRB so much is due to the bluntness of the Berkley family they just call markets out for what they are. I think the past XX days is just a continuation of clear evidence that the insurance industry is still a cyclical industry. And for whatever the reason may be some would say fear and greed the industry continues to seemingly make an art out of self-sabotage when it comes to its own success he said. The reinsurance marketplace clearly the property market particularly property cat that bloom is off the rose Berkley commented on the reinsurance sector"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1980624596828041505)  2025-10-21T13:17Z 3046 followers, 3189 engagements


"$ORI sensible M&A. Earnings print looked no different than $WRB will take a harder look this morning. Will be a buyer of any algo sell the news. Following an expected closing in 2026 ORI expects this transaction to be accretive to book value per share and operating income per share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1981328414582755734)  2025-10-23T11:54Z 3046 followers, 1192 engagements


"More insurance M&A this one is a rather large transaction and brings $AIG back into the reinsurance market. $3B commitment from $AIG with an additional $2B investment to be deployed over the next 3yrs. Stephen Caitlin is as close as it gets to a legacy big wig type Babe Ruth character for the industry. $2.2B is going to Convex for a XX% stake with a remaining $640m for to Onex for a XXX% stake. Onex is the majority shareholder of Convex and will trim its stake down to XX% post transaction (still awaiting regulatory approval). Based on $AIG $2.2B at XX% and Convex 3.7B shareholder equity it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1983886203435843591)  2025-10-30T13:18Z 3047 followers, 1620 engagements


"$AGL 🤮 Not bankrupt "yet" is the only news. Medical loss ratio of XXXXX% in Q3 2025 vs XXXXX% in Q3 2024. Tangible book value down to $207m versus $319m in the prior quarter. Basically have X to X more quarters to fix this I think this is a complete zero $0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1985821101809917978)  2025-11-04T21:27Z 3047 followers, 1268 engagements


"Agreed I like Doyle he's had his bell rung by all the Howden hires but multiple wise hard not to like $MMC right now. $WTW is cheap but it's also the worst run of the bunch. $AON Case is a shark. $AJG best at M&A. $BRO I'm just not a huge fan of. Forgot to add $RYAN still a little rich for my blood but has a good broker/program flywheel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1986172844875931666)  2025-11-05T20:44Z 3048 followers, XXX engagements


"Its been awhile since Ive deep dived the brokers they were all trading at such high multiples I stopped paying attention. The forward multiple are trading where they were at in the peak of the soft market. I dont think you will go wrong with $AON $MMC or $AJG. Everyone is watching $BRO but I wasnt impressed with how they handled the soft market narrative over the past few earnings calls. Pat Gallagher is a legend he would be my horse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1986208947276022120)  2025-11-05T23:08Z 3047 followers, XXX engagements


"@DDBlakeFischer $AJG is sitting on a gold mine that many probably have no clue about called SPG its a very large programs roll up / organic division. If they ever sold it which I dont think they will it would be worth alot and its growing like a weed same as the other guys doing programs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1986209309626114089)  2025-11-05T23:09Z 3047 followers, XXX engagements


"Welcome to the world Octave Specialty Group and good bye to the Ambac name and anything Puerto Rico. $AMBC is now $OSG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1988014484498084109)  2025-11-10T22:42Z 3049 followers, 1731 engagements


"Added to some of my core names $ORI $WRB. Added to $MAX as well today but a newer name I've been discussing. New names added $HG $PLMR $AIG $ARX. Other names I'm carefully watching $NP I love the company but I think there will be a reset in this multiple at some point. 75x LTM earnings is a bit nutty for a monoline MGA. $HG was too cheap to ignore 6x LTM PE and 6x Forward trading below book value 🤯I've been negative on their reserves in the past and operating leverage due to London expense model but they continue to grow/perform (will monitor reserves carefully) and with the power of two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1990833624896208963)  2025-11-18T17:24Z 3045 followers, 1435 engagements


"@cardinalcap12 Own $MMC and $AJG been public that I'm not as big a fan of $BRO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1991582823405482358)  2025-11-20T19:02Z 3046 followers, XXX engagements


"$AIG paid $2.7m not to hire John Neal lol They are welcome to try and hire me anytime for that type of pay day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992042183768121460)  2025-11-22T01:27Z 3046 followers, 1585 engagements


"Seems like it was cancelled for are the right reasons. $AIG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992248776174780696)  2025-11-22T15:08Z 3046 followers, 1177 engagements


"Thank you @sundarpichai. Owe this guy a nice dinner. Some days I wonder why I trade any other stock. $GOOG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992971539587735988)  2025-11-24T15:00Z 3046 followers, 4012 engagements


"@AndrewM61370616 @sundarpichai Agreed. I made a decent allocation to $AJG recently. The multiple was getting closer to historical lows dividend is healthy. Assured was a really great regional brokerage was a fan of that acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1993011156253110315)  2025-11-24T17:37Z 3045 followers, XXX engagements


"(1) very experienced insurance guy (I might know a thing or two about actuarial models hmmmmm ponder that) (2) not a hedge fund guy (I trade my own money how I see fit - I said modest) (3) uber reserves are about as clear as a bag of dirt shaken in mud (4) a $12B Uber captive makes Googles captive $1B captive (the largest look like a minnow (5) the Uber reserve disclosures are an absolute joke (6) they insure a insurance product everyone in insurance has quite literally been murdered in at a large discount to what the market would minimally charge. (7) they are lobbying and suing law firms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1994226106027651292)  2025-11-28T02:05Z 3046 followers, XXX engagements


"Interesting to see how $AIG is utilizing $PLTR in their commercial business. AIG Assist uses LLM technology to process structured and unstructured data for commercial insurance submissions from insurance brokers on behalf of their Insureds. Having suffered through the data dump that can be a submission in the commercial world this is interesting wish I could get a peak under the hood. Unlike Personal Lines Commercial Insurance submissions can be very rich in a lot of unstructured data. Yes non-profits have Form XXX ETC. and you can automate that with some basic solution but tracking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1995519654068908489)  2025-12-01T15:45Z 3046 followers, 2294 engagements


"I love being knowledgeable (some might call it on the spectrum) in a space that is dreadfully boring to investors (insurance) and one that no one cares about. It helps create alpha type opportunities though. The Florida CAT trade was a moment in time. a good moment. $ERIE is a blessing of a short. $SKWD and $BOW make fun trades L/S loved when they had a higher PE than $GOOG what $AIG is structurally very cheap. $HIPO and $ASIC deserve a deep dive. $SPNT has had a run - bought in at $XX like X months ago $MAX $ARX $PLMR all have a lot of upside and are not standard P&C (Boring defensive names)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996726747677532256)  2025-12-04T23:42Z 3049 followers, 1727 engagements


"$AIG probably warrants a deeper dive but they have a very large $7.5B stock repurchase plan just acquired a large % of convex (I think they are going to ramp that reinsurance arm up) and bought Everest renewal rights deal which is $2B in premium. I think Zaffino is going to grow the crap out of the top line. He cleaned up the balance sheet a few years ago (bought a large LPT) and sold off Corebridge and their Travel insurer its a really different company today truly just a P&C operation now. Trades right at book and forward multiple is 10x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996945177890402551)  2025-12-05T14:10Z 3047 followers, XXX engagements


"$BRO CEO stating the "speed" of the property decline was "surprising""  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1950206122867953769)  2025-07-29T14:45Z 3049 followers, 1689 engagements


"Did this cause a drop in $ASIC Texas premiums shrank -XXX% through the first X months of 2025 and Q2 looks like it had a small contraction. Looks like their growth in Florida was strong in Q2. Mostly primary and excess general liability per their reporting in FL. Florida Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 looks like it's up +29%. Weirdly their policy count in FL is way down 1799 in Q2 2025 vs 2019 in Q2 2025. Unfortunately not all the stamping data is readily available on Ategrity Specialty just yet in other states"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1950917192582574307)  2025-07-31T13:51Z 3049 followers, XXX engagements


"Solid print by the boys up North $FRFHF / $FFH.TO underwriting results consistent and time and time again prove to be world class investors in global equity markets "Oh Canada My Home and Native Land""  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1951032553269305638)  2025-07-31T21:29Z 3052 followers, 1844 engagements


"$RLI owns XX% of a private insurance company called Prime (Rick Lindsey is the CEO and quite the personality). Prime had a tough 2024 $RLI cited that it was due to adverse development they experienced on prior accident years (more DD to follow there) would like to review the schedule P data. $RLI books the investment at 1x book book is $258m and the investment is recorded at $56m. Prime grew by an impressive +30% in Q1 2025 Q2 data pending. Below are statutory financial highlights for the two prime subsidiaries of the holdco. Putting aside the loss ratio for a second there is probably $250m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1955105074700534191)  2025-08-12T03:12Z 3054 followers, 1240 engagements


"What are some of your favorite banks insurers or SaaS plays and why Insurtech opinions are welcome. Heres a few of my personal favorite medium / long term holds: $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $GOOG $CRWD $MSFT $TSM $PGR Heres a few interest rate plays: $ACGL $NMIH $ESNT $ACT $KRNY $JPM $MS $LDI $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1974835917119492495)  2025-10-05T13:55Z 3050 followers, 2520 engagements


"Why has the CA Stamping office not included $ASIC in their reports Are folks sleeping on their Q3 growth I honestly don't know definitively it's hard to say not knowing what they are doing in CA. As a benchmark $ASIC was up +27% in California on June XX 2025. I doubt the growth plummeted in a quarter knowing how challenging that market can be. NTM PE is 10x cheap all things considered. For the insurance nerds out their like myself their age to age factors aren't the best but it's early days. If I had to guess I think they are going to print +15% top line growth in Q3. @linglingfool"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1976659224538099740)  2025-10-10T14:40Z 3052 followers, 6413 engagements


"Heart of hearts I think hybrid fronting companies like $TSU.TO and $ARX would achieve better valuations if they were owned by brokerages rather than by carriers and/or trade in public markets as a stand alone entity. If you want to be valued on a forward EBITDA multiple that's the cleanest way to do it in my opinion. Can create a liability structure and personal guarantee's that are separate from the brokerage and I truly believe the off-balance sheet credit risk can be managed with proper reinsurance. A lot of synergies for a broker and a hybrid fronting company as well as many are expanding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1980264869677920471)  2025-10-20T13:28Z 3050 followers, 1450 engagements


"$NP fighting to stay above their IPO price. I actually think growth this quarter should be strong due to the government shutdown. Again it's a fantastic company but I think trading at XX% of the total addressable market when you can't write +50% of the TAM is math that makes no sense in terms of valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1981021466427592745)  2025-10-22T15:34Z 3051 followers, 1338 engagements


"Called it California mustve been big for $ASIC the road to $XX seems clearer @onion61314"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1981169268202098735)  2025-10-23T01:22Z 3049 followers, 2038 engagements


"Found this interesting today friend shot me a note. K2 the holding company owned by Warburg Pincus hired the former Co-Founder and COO of $NP Stephanie Lee to build a competing private flood insurance MGA in September of 2023. They use Solstice Technology as their main software partner. CEO of Solstice was the former CTO of National Flood Services. Will do some digging to see if I can find any hard to find data about how its growing / doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1981200998136791258)  2025-10-23T03:28Z 3052 followers, 1123 engagements


"$ASIC couldn't have had a stronger quarter and Wells Fargo drops their target from $XX to $XX. Unbelievable. Would love to understand their rationale if anyone has a copy. Increasing national distribution adding new products improving operating leverage increasing property rates (soft market). Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous question asking for a full 2yrs guidance lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1981369780268650506)  2025-10-23T14:39Z 3052 followers, 3322 engagements


"Life and annuity insurers with the thanks of $BX $ARES $APO etc. are storing a levered powder keg of junk bonds with a lit fuse on their balance sheets. XX% of unaffiliated bank loans are rated "junk" nice lol what could possibly go wrong. It's pretty obvious the "equity" like returns that private credit has generated the past 3yrs has come from higher risk / levered lending. Not all private credit is created equal there are some great firms out there but plenty taking on excessive risk as well. "US life and annuity (L/A) insurers expanded their private credit portfolios by X% in 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1983537831482912788)  2025-10-29T14:14Z 3050 followers, 2190 engagements


"Why is $ARES using life insurance assets to buy up some of their affiliated secondary funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1983575646367277461)  2025-10-29T16:44Z 3055 followers, 1822 engagements


"Anyone in Australia know what this CEO did $SDF.AX Stock halted this morning. Sounds like sexual assault per the filing "workplace complaint against a senior executive" in this case the CEO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1983966176658256327)  2025-10-30T18:36Z 3049 followers, 1094 engagements


"It will be fun to see $AGL Q3 print this week. I have my doubts on the turnaround story but if theres any sign of life Ill be watching closely. Trading at X% of its revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1984763510417469921)  2025-11-01T23:24Z 3050 followers, 1469 engagements


"Great time to load up on P&C for downside protection $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO are some of my favorites. Worth playing Florida trade for the next few weeks $ACIC $SLDE $UVE $HCI etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1986552738675921108)  2025-11-06T21:54Z 3055 followers, 3046 engagements


"Still digesting $ARX results but they are guiding to $269m of Adj EBITDA by FY 2026 which would put the forward multiple at 10.3x right now. Quarter highlights are XXX members $4B in LTM Written Premium +42% Organic Growth and XX risk capital partners. US MGA growth appears to be robust as it's still near XX% range. LTM Adj EBITDA of $XXX or a multiple of 13.2x. With the guidance and pipeline I think this has officially bottomed out again still reviewing but a forward EBITDA of 10x would be viewed as cheap in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1988724613808099428)  2025-11-12T21:44Z 3049 followers, 5356 engagements


"Neptune Flood Insurance (MGA) $NP with a solid print. Definitely benefited from the government shutdown last Q which impacted the NFIPs ability to write business. $NP Revenue / written premium +30% and Adj EBITDA flat at 60%. LTM Adj EBITDA is $88.4m against a market cap at close of $3.7B for an eye watering 39x multiple. Theres some new incumbents in this space one is Titan Flood which was literally created by a former Neptune co-founder as well as a handful of others. I think the growth story is fantastic here and what they did to improve a broken insurance product is fantastic. That being"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1988831164463796510)  2025-11-13T04:47Z 3049 followers, 1080 engagements


"Im excited for the tech selloff to reverse so $ORI can dip back to $XX and $WRB back to $XX and re-load for about the 4x this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1989043476759994451)  2025-11-13T18:51Z 3055 followers, 1055 engagements


"Want some safe havens today $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $CB $BRK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1989331832765042832)  2025-11-14T13:57Z 3051 followers, XXX engagements


"$ARX CEO insider purchase of $1m in stock. I like the confidence Radke has in this business. I think the flywheel these guys have created is very undervalued at the moment. My fair value price is $XX and I think long-term that could be conservative considering no other company has built an MGA insurance exchange that connects MGA's Fronts Reinsurers and Alternative Capacity quite like these guys (it is incredibly challenging to do). Most folks have zero clue how hard it is to launch / manage these MGA's (people think with the flick of a wrist they get incubated. I can assure you they do not)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1990821705787359685)  2025-11-18T16:37Z 3049 followers, 3293 engagements


"Who should we deep dive next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1991138545658917052)  2025-11-19T13:36Z 3049 followers, 2846 engagements


"Was asked by a friend FYI XX% of my portfolio (Specialty P&C concentration) has a weighted average 12.6x PE and 1.6x PB 2026 multiple. Some might call it boring I call it consistent (returns might suprise folks) and helps me sleep at night when the market pulls back. I recently increased my allocation to P&C names ever so slightly with my biggest allocations going to $HG $AIG and $PLMR in that order remain long some big tech names $GOOG the largest and some specialty insurance tech names like $MAX that are not included in those multiples above as well as some infrastructure and mortgage/real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1991528749574000734)  2025-11-20T15:27Z 3055 followers, 2808 engagements


"Clearly the management team feels like $ARX stock is trading below it's intrinsic value. Two more insider purchases by Matt Sternberg COO of their Risk Exchange and Samuel Gaynor Director"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1991877518979379242)  2025-11-21T14:33Z 3049 followers, 1288 engagements


"Pleased to publish our report on $ARX. We strongly feel as though this company is trading at a significant discount to peers and their intrinsic value. We maintain a price target of $XX. Click here to access our free report:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1991981426133099006)  2025-11-21T21:25Z 3049 followers, 3003 engagements


"Has $RLI remotely considered trying to integrate new software so they can get their net expense ratio down They had a XXXX% net expense ratio YTD 2025 which is way above their peers (see below). $RLI is predominantly wholesale distribution which means higher policy acquisitions costs as they have to pay higher broker commissions to acquire premium. A X% reduction in their net expense ratio is XX% boost to EPS this would be a huge opportunity if they could complete an efficient software transformation. Will likely write up a report on this and provide suggestions to management. YTD 2025 Net"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992757305067044923)  2025-11-24T00:48Z 3052 followers, 1935 engagements


"lol true going to dig through the numbers and see where all the expenses are flowing. $ERIE had lavish spending on personal use corporate jets I dont think $RLI spends quite like those kinda Pennsylvanians but if they do Ill find it. They should sneeze the word Palantir on their next earnings call and they might get a XX% pop in the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992759334023930306)  2025-11-24T00:57Z 3052 followers, XXX engagements


"lol no I think Michael and Brian are very intelligent. They did say they think they can achieve above market growth over the cycle but the past few quarters they are trailing their competitors like $HG $ASIC etc which could be due to the fact that those competitors are writing the business on worse terms or cheaper premium etc and maybe its a blip in the matrix but analyst are pretty much pure EPS modelers and the model trend is +5% right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992784093147263104)  2025-11-24T02:35Z 3051 followers, XXX engagements


"Still hanging on to $ASIC. Growing profitable and cheap. 9.8x 2026 PE Ratio well below peers. Tons of regional distribution still untapped and product suite still limited"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992941762512638309)  2025-11-24T13:01Z 3051 followers, XXX engagements


"Interesting chart from a report I'm working on. Excluding stock repurchase/dividends. who looks cheap $RLI $KNSL $MKL $WRB $BOW $ORI $SKWD $ASIC $AXS $HG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1992960346336973228)  2025-11-24T14:15Z 3059 followers, 2435 engagements


"@mattscottcap Ive been long and short names over the years $OSCR was a recent example of short trade long outlook. Worked well. $AGL just short. Oddly enough I never traded Lemonade but always remain open to shifting dynamics in a business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1993175474932158729)  2025-11-25T04:30Z 3050 followers, XXX engagements


"$ARX Joe should be publishing this on X he would get way more traction. Investors dont read LinkedIn. @danielsethlewis maybe next time you talk to them I think a shift to X would help him get his message out better. $ARX to $XX lets ride"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1993324514575360067)  2025-11-25T14:22Z 3049 followers, 1875 engagements


"@Empress_Cap @danielsethlewis I'm being sincere when I say this but no one in the fronting/program/MGA world has a flywheel quite like $ARX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1993426714182271485)  2025-11-25T21:08Z 3049 followers, XXX engagements


"2019 before the near collapse of James River $UBER states they are trying to get out of the insurance business but fast forward to 2025 and their reserves went from $3B to $12B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1994582978215698433)  2025-11-29T01:43Z 3049 followers, 1615 engagements


"Chasing yield / pushing leverage. Work with a lot of life insurers and many moved to Bermuda while the really big risk takers typically gravitate towards the Cayman Islands. Great article from some time ago explaining the lower capital requirements in the Cayman Islands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1995343506198422003)  2025-12-01T04:05Z 3051 followers, 2480 engagements


"I find this one interesting as I deal with a lot of banks credit funds and REITs (mortgage & property). Multifamily taking it on the chin right now and seems to be broader than just workforce housing / rent control units. CoStar reported the biggest monthly drops in median rent it had seen in XX years of tracking. The primary reason is that more young people are struggling to form new households. Whats interesting here is the setup you have youth unemployment at record highs XX% so cohorts 18-24 are really struggling. Effectively kids out of college are just opting to stay home. If this group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1995859435193815314)  2025-12-02T14:15Z 3052 followers, 1819 engagements


"$JPM investing platform is simple and easy to use but when it's down at 11am on a Tuesday it can be quite frustrating when your trying to harvest a few year end losses and re-balance into some new positions. @jpmorgan wtf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1995887948668305523)  2025-12-02T16:09Z 3057 followers, 1198 engagements


"He who builds up excess capital in hard markets can repurchase stock and issue special dividends in soft markets which is a consistent theme across $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO over the decades. Folks also forget you capture the rate deceleration with increased ceding commissions on reinsurance treaties and lower rates on reinsurance XOL for the first few years so margins dont actually drop right away. Takes a few years. Lastly most P&C names are in 3/4yrs duration on the fixed income side and can extend and lock in new money yields to preserve NII for the next few years. I think we can take a breath on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996223901190226356)  2025-12-03T14:24Z 3052 followers, XXX engagements


"Min volume but love to see $MAX Fly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996310143420489848)  2025-12-03T20:06Z 3048 followers, XXX engagements


"Fun day wrapping up my $PLMR report when two of your picks $PATH +18% and $ARX +6% on the day but up +16% in less than a month. Both having fantastic days when the S&P / NASDAQ are flat on the day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996608192499875928)  2025-12-04T15:51Z 3049 followers, XXX engagements


"@linglingfool You caught it on $ASIC so I knew to look this time lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996650635736109166)  2025-12-04T18:39Z 3049 followers, XX engagements


"@NavigatorSaint @Veridivus124444 $EVER and $MAX are equal weights but very different business models but I like $MAX setup more but both are a very similar cyclical plays"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996764022943911945)  2025-12-05T02:10Z 3055 followers, XX engagements


"The sushi trade lives on $WRB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996936832550838419)  2025-12-05T13:36Z 3054 followers, 2312 engagements


"@SayNoToTrading That's fair hopefully something they can clear up I remember when Mitsui first announced the Berkley family came out and said they weren't selling their position down. Weird sharp sell off. 13x LTM earnings is historically cheap for $WRB hence why I bought some more today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1997022387812909389)  2025-12-05T19:16Z 3057 followers, XXX engagements


"And this is why I love the Berkley family and something I highlighted in my report I did awhile ago. $WRB declares a $XXXX special dividend and increased the quarterly dividend by +12.5%. Bought another XXX shares early today nice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1997038260909138294)  2025-12-05T20:19Z 3054 followers, 1820 engagements


"@SubtleInduction Yeah $ORI and $WRB have been near ATH for sometime now so I actually appreciate a little reset in the price. $ORI has been crazy solid lately. Probably a flight to quality with some of the high flyer multiples getting dragged down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1997060765933621759)  2025-12-05T21:49Z 3057 followers, XXX engagements


"@negligible_cap But they need a certain amount of thrust to weight technology in order to get there no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998144855021863270)  2025-12-08T21:37Z 3052 followers, XX engagements


"@grok @negligible_cap @elonmusk Latency is a huge problem for Stralink in urban districts. Space can also get hot not always cold if you catch a flare like a warm Marlboro light after a few. How feasible is this really"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998148413230350760)  2025-12-08T21:51Z 3057 followers, XX engagements


"@ActAccordingly @tbpn S/T Trades real long term TBD. There is some alpha on here and a lot of not-alpha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998151138223296840)  2025-12-08T22:02Z 3057 followers, XXX engagements


"Nice move by Radian $RDN a step in the right direction to becoming more like $ACGL simply meaning a diversified P&C / PMI carrier rather than a monoline PMI carrier. Didnt overpay 1.5x book and around 7.7x 2025e pre-tax operating income or closer to 10x earnings. Well played boys. Simple highlight this was well executed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1968670884442321044)  2025-09-18T13:38Z 3061 followers, 1214 engagements


"I'd throw $RNR into a near same quality bucket as $ACGL for the world of Bermuda carriers. Very well run reinsurer highly diversified and doing what I think is currently undervalued or underappreciated as it pertains to the great things they are doing with their ILS sidecar / fee income model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1974231759664578639)  2025-10-03T21:55Z 3061 followers, 2939 engagements


"Been awhile since I published anything formal. This one is short and sweet. If you want an equity instrument that is a natural hedge against the soft market conditions in personal auto I present you with a great multi-year opportunity in $MAX. Click Here to Access our Free Report:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1988365657109324209)  2025-11-11T21:58Z 3063 followers, 4370 engagements


"The sky is falling $HOVR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1990884308442079611)  2025-11-18T20:46Z 3063 followers, 1138 engagements


"Chart by Raymond James in their $KMPR report (I think there will be a time to buy Kemper but the reserves need to flush out more and waiting on the new squad) Chart (at least for me) explains why there has been a lot of pressure on the $ROOT share price lately. No trailing growth (understand the community feels strong about the IA channel) and a high 2026 multiple basically 3x their peers. Theyre getting lumped into the non-standard auto market a bit more than some may feel is warranted and per RJ near-term headwinds including competitive pressures in the non-standard personal auto market not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1995309188587688032)  2025-12-01T01:49Z 3062 followers, 1923 engagements


"@grok I honestly have no clue what the answer is but with starship that can do XXX metric tons expendable how feasible or not is it that $GOOG and @elonmusk can launch enough GPU's to orbit that would be enough to support your compute capacity and while your at it tell Sam Altman to pound sand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998147674441437654)  2025-12-08T21:48Z 3062 followers, XX engagements


"@jptissot1 He leaves and they buy $GOOG it's one of two things the greatest move ever or they really don't need him that much. I defer to the latter. BRK got so big it's going to be hard to create a lot of alpha unless inflation is rampant which insurers benefit from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998148909307416636)  2025-12-08T21:53Z 3063 followers, XXX engagements


"@americanmade_ai @Benshooter Im shaking in my boots. Wouldnt touch this with a 100ft pole L/S. Should probably do yourself a favor and dial it down youre going to attract the wrong attention. XX% of my followers are hedge funds and L/S traders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998735963032342639)  2025-12-10T12:46Z 3063 followers, XX engagements


"Nice report on $HOVR by @Pelicanwayre this reminds me of Jordan Belfort pitching Aerotyne International. Odd a start up this small would be paying a CEO $700k a year. That's usually a $250k or less type salary at this stage plus insider selling this early in the companies life cycle is a huge red flag packaged with dilution. I've seen a lot of these companies over the years and this technology strikes me as very amateur. I'm a big believer in eVTOL as battery technology continues to improve (denser storage capacity) but I doubt it will come from $HOVR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1988999453361971468)  2025-11-13T15:56Z 3064 followers, 1964 engagements


"So SpaceX is XXX% going to try and do this in partnership with $GOOG. How do I trade this I feel like Elon wouldn't post this unless this conversation has actually happened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998135699237941478)  2025-12-08T21:00Z 3065 followers, 2073 engagements


"@americanmade_ai I hope your right (I sincerely do) because this is a plaintiff firms wet dream if it's wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998829776828772432)  2025-12-10T18:58Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements


"@mindthelongterm Yes $CB informal offer to buy $AIG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998861350035231157)  2025-12-10T21:04Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements


"I would think a lot stock maybe raise some debt $CB is only at XX% debt to equity. Can push it to maybe 30%. I remember when Evan was making a lot of unsolicited bids to $HIG that ultimately went nowhere but he did drive the stock up. $AIG as I've said is very cheap right now. Would be wild to see another Greenberg running it. Big middle finger for Hank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998864315403608495)  2025-12-10T21:16Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements


"Can we get a re-rate to 1.2x book $AIG $CB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998879248451592453)  2025-12-10T22:15Z 3065 followers, 1495 engagements


"@slamcandie No one would sell unless it was at a 15/20% premium so should see it go up. This is very reminiscent of the $CB hostile takeover of $HIG never a guarantee it will go through"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998890099074019757)  2025-12-10T22:58Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements


"$LGN really interesting company. Wish I bought their competitors 5yrs ago $STN and $WSP.TO. Business is fixed contract consulting and engineering focused on data center education and life science focused with $2.6B of contracts in the pipeline. XX% of contract flow comes from $10m sized contracts. Blackstone purchased $LGN in 2020 XXX day lock-up on a large PE backed port co always puts some fear into my heart but this seems like a good multi-year hold due to the size of the ownership. Company is experiencing margin improvement and expected proceeds will pay down a chunk of debt which will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1958269889803907290)  2025-08-20T20:48Z 3064 followers, 2649 engagements


"@HettyGreen2020 Did they confirm they were drawing from the revolver Earnouts typically hit around XX% most of the time. Deferred is a guarantee based on what I assume is a hurdle rate not disclosed. Usually you'd only draw what you need at close and draw later as you need it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996232875860005100)  2025-12-03T14:59Z 3064 followers, XX engagements


"Turns out $SPNT was cheap. $XXXXX today. Entered at $XX less than X months ago. Nice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1997045685179556271)  2025-12-05T20:49Z 3065 followers, 1137 engagements


"Pretty wild that XX% of the top searches on Google in 2018 were insurance related"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998554350885785726)  2025-12-10T00:44Z 3065 followers, 1867 engagements


"We are pleased to publish our report on Palomar $PLMR. We have a target price modeled at $XXX. As Chubb's would say "it's all in the niche" with Palomar. Hope you enjoy reading the report we tried to keep it cheeky. Click here to access our free report:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1996628905218765197)  2025-12-04T17:13Z 3065 followers, 2067 engagements


"Saw a few different posts on $WEN this morning so naturally I was curious and took a look. It does strike as interesting when you start playing with their chart. Forward multiple is trading at a low. I do love their cheeseburgers. Figure even in a recession folks can afford a cheap meal. I do not own and not investment advice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998056911615254627)  2025-12-08T15:47Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements


"@Veridivus124444 Wow been awhile since someone brought up $SLQT Life insurance I try to avoid but Ill take a look and see if I find anything good. @hedgequote would probably have some good insights into Ethos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998567946487214153)  2025-12-10T01:38Z 3065 followers, XX engagements


"Coming off peak hard market entering a soft market CEOs dont know how to grow enter in-organic growth efforts. My bet $EG or anyone at near or below book. $JRVR $GBLI come to mind. Ambac no only because its a front"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CedarStResearch/status/1998899120497635702)  2025-12-10T23:34Z 3065 followers, XXX engagements