# ![@AndyHazelton Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::883532234.png) @AndyHazelton Andy Hazelton

Andy Hazelton posts on X about jamaica, over the, philippines, nio the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  32.23% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  6.61% [finance](/list/finance)  6.61% [stocks](/list/stocks)  2.48% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.48% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  0.83% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.83%

**Social topic influence**
[jamaica](/topic/jamaica) 13.22%, [over the](/topic/over-the) 7.44%, [philippines](/topic/philippines) 7.44%, [nio](/topic/nio) #263, [the north](/topic/the-north) 5.79%, [ai](/topic/ai) #3074, [in the](/topic/in-the) 3.31%, [haiti](/topic/haiti) 3.31%, [dominican republic](/topic/dominican-republic) 3.31%, [cuba](/topic/cuba) 3.31%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@danrothenberg](/creator/undefined) [@brightbandtech](/creator/undefined) [@noaahurrhunter](/creator/undefined) [@jeumerus](/creator/undefined) [@bennollweather](/creator/undefined) [@tampastorm](/creator/undefined) [@flpolenjoyer](/creator/undefined) [@rushtropicalwx](/creator/undefined) [@gfoster1982](/creator/undefined) [@ana67126968](/creator/undefined) [@frankthegtank](/creator/undefined) [@369hurricane](/creator/undefined) [@blamarre](/creator/undefined) [@allbamacfb](/creator/undefined) [@climawcosta](/creator/undefined) [@tropicaltidbits](/creator/undefined) [@cyclonicwx](/creator/undefined) [@craigsetzer](/creator/undefined) [@meulenbeldrick](/creator/undefined) [@jwthiesing](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Buttcoin (BUTTCOIN)](/topic/butt)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The only Atlantic activity right now is #Fernand recurving over the North Atlantic. With #99L fading over the East Caribbean there aren't any development prospects in the near future. Seems likely that this will be the second year in a row that we have a quiet Labor Day The bulk of the activity the next [--] days will be in the Pacific. As intraseasonal forcing (MJO/CCKW) comes east we could see the MDR start to wake up in about 7-10 days. Overall though looks like a quiet start to the climatological peak of the season. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959940468474564870"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1959940468474564870)  2025-08-25T11:26Z 35.5K followers, 11.6K engagements


"@JEumerus The Z500 anomalies weren't all that helpful (just the long term climate change signal so all positive anomalies). Overall the western flank of the Bermuda High looks weak though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019414210158174704)  2026-02-05T14:14Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@rushtropicalwx Actually we do pretty solidly. There are indices that account for the global mean. And the atmosphere responds accordingly. It's not really that big of a mystery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020255216554442828)  2026-02-07T21:55Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Did a quick blog looking at some of the AI model forecasts for Gezani as it impacts Madagascar. Some models/members picked up on intensification as it approached Madagascar but not universally. Guessing maybe the small size played a role With @danrothenberg and @brightbandtech https://www.brightband.com/blog/gezani-impacts-madagascar-how-did-ai-models-perform https://www.brightband.com/blog/gezani-impacts-madagascar-how-did-ai-models-perform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2021298514995851284)  2026-02-10T19:01Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Seahawks kicker has to be the MVP right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020692619895197735)  2026-02-09T02:53Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"This is a very concerning move. There's a big push to put a lot of supercomputing in the cloud but this particular move smells like politics. Definitely a danger for the research community. New: Trump admin moves to pull supercomputing center out of top weather and climate research center (NCAR) in Boulder Colo. Part of its effort to "break up" the lab. https://t.co/vo0qFpYG01 New: Trump admin moves to pull supercomputing center out of top weather and climate research center (NCAR) in Boulder Colo. Part of its effort to "break up" the lab. https://t.co/vo0qFpYG01"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022428587958374903)  2026-02-13T21:52Z 35.5K followers, 10.4K engagements


"Saw a ton of manatees today in our canal just down a little bit from the house. Never seen them here before. Wonder if the cold has them looking for food and/or warmer water"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2018379880069521690)  2026-02-02T17:43Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"ECMWF seasonal guidance continues to show El Nio quickly developing by summer. The main uncertainty at this point seems to be in the magnitude of the event (ensemble ranges from a weak/moderate event to a Super Nio). On the Atlantic side the SST configuration reminds me of [----] with an Atlantic Nio forecast but warmth otherwise concentrated in the subtropics. The big difference is [----] was a La Nia year so I expect shear and subsidence will be a much bigger issue this year. Consistent with this the precip anomalies show a much drier than usual setup across the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019400508419489910)  2026-02-05T13:19Z 35.5K followers, 33K engagements


"Probably a couple more months of drought to go with La Nia holding on to its dying breaths. The State of Florida now is experiencing the most widespread and severe drought since [----]. https://t.co/7tqdFxhQMf The State of Florida now is experiencing the most widespread and severe drought since [----]. https://t.co/7tqdFxhQMf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019427491388313782)  2026-02-05T15:06Z 35.5K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Got down to [--] at our house in Homestead this morning. Most winters here that would probably be good for our coldest morning of the winter but it actually felt comparatively mild after our bout with the 30s earlier this week. The dry air is getting a little old on my skin but I am enjoying the lack of mosquitoes for a few days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019763901756289437)  2026-02-06T13:23Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"February NMME is out. Like most climate models it shows a solid El Nio developing this summer. For peak hurricane season the combination of an average Atlantic MDR with El Nio and +PMM is likely to result in a dry Atlantic with below-average TC activity if this look verifies. Out of curiosity I looked at NMME from February [----]. The differences are somewhat subtle but you can see a more +PMM look this year with a lot drier Eastern Atlantic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020236824145469750 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020236824145469750"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020236824145469750)  2026-02-07T20:42Z 35.5K followers, 14.6K engagements


"One of the things that allowed the [----] Atlantic season to be fairly active despite the solid +ENSO event was the fact that the Atlantic was so warm and the Pacific (off the equator) wasn't. That doesn't seem like it'll happen this year so we'll probably see a more traditionally hostile +ENSO shear response"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020239012452028593)  2026-02-07T20:51Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The air temperature has been slowly climbing over the last few days but I'm guessing it'll take a while for the water to get back up. Our manatee friends have been hanging out in the canal pretty much all week and are still there today. A couple of mama/baby pairs. We had another guest today - young () crocodile Saw a ton of manatees today in our canal just down a little bit from the house. Never seen them here before. Wonder if the cold has them looking for food and/or warmer water https://t.co/Y5S32zyz1v Saw a ton of manatees today in our canal just down a little bit from the house. Never"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020554312405905495)  2026-02-08T17:44Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"This explains the manatees coming up in the canals. I was reading this week that they have issues if the water gets below 68F and we've gotten below that along the Florida shelf. Curious about how our nearshore sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been impacted by the recent stretch of cold weather SST's remain in the low to mid 60s across our local Gulf waters while the nearby Gulfstream keeps waters a bit warmer along the east coast in the low 70s. https://t.co/epPsltlYhC Curious about how our nearshore sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been impacted by the recent stretch of cold weather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020578646885618127)  2026-02-08T19:21Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The Patriots O-line is getting absolutely abused tonight 😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020684614495285467)  2026-02-09T02:22Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"While El Nio will likely develop in time to be a big player in Summer [----] and beyond right now the lingering effects of La Nia are still being felt in Florida and the Southeast. Dry weather looks to continue over the next few weeks. There's a chance March might get a little more wet with a Pacific MJO event and the growing +ENSO. But in the meantime drought and fire danger will likely to continue to be an issue. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020855619960336537 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020855619960336537"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2020855619960336537)  2026-02-09T13:41Z 35.5K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Looks like #Gezani will make landfall very close to the large (578K people) port city of Toamasina while rapidly intensifying. Not a good situation. ITC #Gezani's RI continues unabated with the storm likely now at Cat [--] intensity (115-120KT/130-140mph) with landfall imminent within the next few hours. This would make it one of the strongest landfalls in Madagascar in recent history. https://t.co/qOV0ilIMaK ITC #Gezani's RI continues unabated with the storm likely now at Cat [--] intensity (115-120KT/130-140mph) with landfall imminent within the next few hours. This would make it one of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2021244932996866320)  2026-02-10T15:28Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The new C3S multi-model climate model mean is out. It continues to show the likelihood of El Nio by summer/fall [----]. Still some question of magnitude but at least a moderate event seems pretty likely. The atmospheric response looks classic with enhanced precip and low pressure across the Central/East Pacific and reduced rainfall and high pressure across the Indian Ocean and Africa. This would favor a quieter-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season most likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022320129258692752)  2026-02-13T14:41Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting setup for severe weather across the Deep South this weekend. Euro is definitely more robust with the shortwave progressing east. A lot will depend on where the low sets up. I remember from my time at FSU that if the low is too close to the coast the warm sector gets pinned offshore and you just get stable rain. One factor to consider - the Eastern Gulf is much cooler than usual thanks to the recent cold air outbreak across the area. That will probably act to reduce surface CAPE and stabilize things particularly across the FL Big Bend and South Georgia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2021231787414798561)  2026-02-10T14:36Z 35.5K followers, 10K engagements


"If you're in South Dade/Homestead (or nearby) and like "Frozen" and/or plays our daughter Maddie will be performing as "Young Anna" in the play "Frozen Jr" next weekend at Seminole Theatre in Homestead (2/20 [--] pm and 2/21 [--] pm). I think I've now heard "do you want to build a snowman" enough times for the rest of my life 😆 She's looking forward to it https://www.tixr.com/groups/seminoletheatre/events/frozen-jr--166915 https://www.tixr.com/groups/seminoletheatre/events/frozen-jr--164862 https://www.tixr.com/groups/seminoletheatre/events/frozen-jr--166915"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022309242414264547)  2026-02-13T13:57Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I feel like we're not far from some reporter uncovering that some of us at NOAA that got DOGEd were targeted because of things in our Google Drive like "model *bias*" and "ensemble *diversity*". It sounds really stupid but that's where we are. Scoop: DOGE allegedly used ChatGPT to identify approx [----] National Endowment for the Humanities grants the AI tool deemed as related to DEI which were then terminated in April of last year according to a new court filing released today. Among the terminated grants were a Scoop: DOGE allegedly used ChatGPT to identify approx [----] National Endowment for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2022487805700497491)  2026-02-14T01:47Z 35.5K followers, 99.6K engagements


"Sometimes this year AI models have helped in giving a clear indication of the likely outcome for a system. Definitely *not* the case for this wave. Pretty much all possibilities on the table from FNV3 with a "squashed spider" ensemble track look: -Weak system into Nicaragua (a la AIFS) -Quicker turn across Hispaniola (a la GFS) -Track hugging the Honduras coast (like Sara last year) -Track into the NW Caribbean (this would be the strongest outcome most likely) Just have to keep watching and see how things evolve. The wave in the Central Atlantic is plugging along to the west. Convection looks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1978807302846287940)  2025-10-16T12:56Z 32K followers, 19.1K engagements


"Ensembles: some uncertainty in whether a low forms in the Caribbean and heads NE ahead of a trough or gets trapped under the ridge. GFS: porque no los dos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1978859251972854028)  2025-10-16T16:23Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The Central Atlantic wave continues to chug west with some fairly healthy convection. Some interesting overnight model trends on AI models towards a sharp turn over the Caribbean. Other models like Euro/EPS still keep it weaker and further SW going deeper into the Caribbean. Will be important to watch: 1) How quickly it develops. 2) The strength of the trough to the north that will try to grab it in 6-7 days. Certainly folks all through the Caribbean including the Greater Antilles should keep an eye on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979142794708160797)  2025-10-17T11:09Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@GFoster1982 Isaac [----] Matthew [----] both went through there. It's rather difficult to actually thread the passage without hitting anything though because of the way the peninsula of Haiti juts out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979168785161482320)  2025-10-17T12:53Z 31.8K followers, [---] engagements


"There's been a lot of positive things to say about AI forecasts recently but this potential Caribbean system is proving to be a challenge. Earlier Google FNV3 was "locking in" on a track across the Dominican Republic. Now the 12z run is back to the "squashed spider" look with possible tracks all over the place. The more uncertain solution makes sense given the inherent uncertainty with pre-genesis systems and also a particularly tricky synoptic setup this time. Goes to show you can't take any single model/ensemble as the "truth" - gotta use a variety of models and understand uncertainty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979265859508900031)  2025-10-17T19:18Z 34.9K followers, 17.6K engagements


"FSU fans watching another ACC team both 1) Beat Miami and 2) Play well on the road on a Friday night:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979373105454690554)  2025-10-18T02:24Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"#98L is still moving a little too fast to close off a circulation on the south side per ASCAT but the wave axis is looking very sharp and robust with 35-40 knot winds on the east side. Shear is going to make it slow to organize in the short term but it does seem to be a little bit ahead of schedule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979760014022660489)  2025-10-19T04:02Z 31.8K followers, 11.6K engagements


"#98L is moving through the Windward Islands today. The mid-level center shows up on visible satellite and the Barbados radar. No indication of a low-level circulation at this point though surface observations continue to show a sharp wave axis. Wind shear across the Caribbean is still pretty hostile so I would not expect significant development for another several days but we'll see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979895936747720784)  2025-10-19T13:02Z 34.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Here are the current main possible scenarios for #98L. I'm personally leaning more towards Scenarios [--] or [--] with slower development and a track either towards Central America or into the NW Caribbean but certainly Scenario [--] is on the table if it gets organized and feels the weakness to the north. Folks all through the Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba should be prepared for potential impacts from this system if it develops"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979906260993520019)  2025-10-19T13:43Z 31.9K followers, 77K engagements


"Yeah it's really tricky because when it's south of Hispaniola you have both questions of alignment and also a bit of a steering col. Slight differences in either the synoptics or the vertical structure of the system get you huge differences in outcome. Doesn't surprise me that the models that usually align too quickly (GFS and HWRF) are furthest right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979910136291340491)  2025-10-19T13:58Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Yeah sometimes warm water over an area doesn't matter if you don't have any disturbances there (like most of the season) but we will in this case. The very warm Caribbean is definitely a factor to consider for the evolution of #98L. The Western Caribbean is by far & away the most anomalously warm sub-basin in the global tropics at the moment just in time for invest #98L 👀 https://t.co/DDAJ5R8luw The Western Caribbean is by far & away the most anomalously warm sub-basin in the global tropics at the moment just in time for invest #98L 👀 https://t.co/DDAJ5R8luw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1979952298164928577)  2025-10-19T16:46Z 31.8K followers, 13.6K engagements


"I've specifically avoided posting about ocean conditions in the Caribbean til now because it doesn't matter that much without a storm/disturbance. With #98L heading in it's worthwhile to take a look. Bottom line is the entire region that #98L could be traversing is 30C or more (over 1C above average). And the warmth is deep too - Ocean Heat Content is well above average as well. So even if we get a storm slowing/stalling it would take a long time to upwell. Oceanically there's really nothing to stop this if/when shear lets up and if it stays over water"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980016670824673334)  2025-10-19T21:02Z 31.9K followers, 21.7K engagements


"24 hours later and it seems like we're down to Scenarios [--] and [--] since #98L is organizing already. Trends on several models indicate an impact to Haiti and the Dominican Republic is possible as soon as Thursday so folks there should be preparing for a possible hurricane impact. At the same time we can't rule out the possibility of #98L getting further west under the ridge (ECMWF/EPS still insist on this scenario). Still a lot to sort out over the next couple days. Here are the current main possible scenarios for #98L. I'm personally leaning more towards Scenarios [--] or [--] with slower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980223863985168753)  2025-10-20T10:45Z 35.4K followers, 84.9K engagements


"Hard to tell if #98L has a closed LLC this morning - looks like something might be trying to form around 14N on the west edge of the convection but I think that's where it's trying to consolidate. The system is still battling westerly shear. Going to be important to see how quickly it consolidates/aligns - if it does so more quickly we could see a quicker turn towards Hispaniola. If it stays less aligned/weaker for longer we might see the more westward track. The last two runs of HAFS-B show these two different outcomes and the Google FNV3 ensemble also illustrates how faster development ="  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980256573801783330)  2025-10-20T12:55Z 31.9K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Remains to be seen exactly how close #98L gets to Hispaniola but worth noting that even a solution like this (stalling just offshore) would be bad with training rainbands on the downshear (east) side leading to a lot of upslope precipitation. Definitely keep an eye on things in #Haiti and the #DominicanRepublic in case it does get close enough for impacts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980334025597214813)  2025-10-20T18:03Z 31.9K followers, 24.2K engagements


"When you're a Bucs fan but also have Jahmyr Gibbs in fantasy:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980441533066408269)  2025-10-21T01:10Z 31.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Continue to be a little concerned about the possibility of a stall or very slow motion for #98L when it's near the coast of Hispaniola this weekend. [--] knots of steering flow is very weak and the storm could easily drift around for a while exacerbating flooding concerns. [--] knots of shear is in that "moderate" range where we could either see intensification or steady-state intensity depending on how the vortex aligns. OHC is very high in that region so it would take a *long* stall to cause significant upwelling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980462602259165603)  2025-10-21T02:34Z 31.9K followers, 15.1K engagements


"Looks like #98L will probably become a TS later today over the Caribbean Sea. Still a ton of possibilities on the table with this one ranging from a turn across the Dominican Republic to a stall in the North Caribbean to a turn back west south of Jamaica. Folks in all of the Caribbean islands should continue to keep a close eye on this. Flooding will be a big concern near and to the east of wherever this ends up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980621196170231998)  2025-10-21T13:04Z 35.3K followers, 12.4K engagements


"GFS has been very consistency with the idea of newly-formed #Melissa moving into Hispaniola in a few days. Of course consistency doesn't always equal accuracy and lots of other models have been pretty consistent on other outcomes. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on this soon. One thing to consider: GFS shows the storm becoming vertically aligned pretty quickly and right now that isn't the case. So if it doesn't align and deepen soon GFS is probably too quick to bring this north"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980664209907110281)  2025-10-21T15:55Z 31.9K followers, 11.2K engagements


"Nice example of vortex tilt in #Melissa tonight with the LLC well west of the MLC due to shear induced by fast low-level flow. The tilt shows up well in model analyses/short-term forecasts as well. The storm will not intensify much until these centers align and allow pressure to fall more quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980799108639326450)  2025-10-22T00:51Z 31.9K followers, 11.5K engagements


"@Ana67126968 Mostly turning across Jamaica/Cuba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980802888923234706)  2025-10-22T01:06Z 31.9K followers, [---] engagements


"If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show) I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category [--] and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep warm water (above average) -A massive upper anticyclone -Enhanced divergence from the jet to the north -Moist environment At that point the only constraint on intensity would be inner-core structure and the maximum potential intensity (MPI)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980986083694277108)  2025-10-22T13:14Z 35.4K followers, 394.4K engagements


"@FranktheGTank Would depend on the exact track of the storm. If the storm is west of Jamaica the wind would be offshore there on the north side of the island. TBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980992640884834341)  2025-10-22T13:40Z 31.9K followers, [----] engagements


"New blog with @brightbandtech and @danrothenberg on AI forecasts for TS Melissa and some of the forecast uncertainty: Definitely keep an eye on the latest forecasts from NHC if you're in Jamaica Cuba Haiti the Dominican Republic or the Cayman Islands https://www.brightband.com/blog/melissa-threatens-the-caribbean-ai-models-discussion-10-22-2025 https://www.brightband.com/blog/melissa-threatens-the-caribbean-ai-models-discussion-10-22-2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981157475996094633)  2025-10-23T00:35Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Becoming increasingly concerned for the possibility of a close pass or direct hit on #Jamaica from #Melissa. Overnight hurricane models have trended closer (HAFS-A/HAFS-B/HMON a little north HWRF a little south) and all show impacts on the island. Still not clear if it'll be a direct hit. There would be two chances for that: 1) From the east as the storm turns west for a time (a la HWRF/HMON). 2) From the SW as the storm turns back to the NE. The second one would probably give a stronger storm but maybe less flooding (though some flooding is likely either way). It's also possible the storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981331435790193108)  2025-10-23T12:06Z 35.4K followers, 57.7K engagements


"Massive cave by the GFS to other guidance for the track of #Melissa. Honestly that's pretty remarkable to see that kind of error/adjustment for a [--] day forecast - don't see that too often with modern NWP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981752112901197986)  2025-10-24T15:58Z 35.4K followers, 43.4K engagements


"Mission went well this morning Melissa is almost a hurricane and seems primed for rapid intensification soon with the vortex becoming more aligned and symmetric. Curious to see what this looks like tomorrow. Definitely nervous for the impacts in #Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982117787754528885)  2025-10-25T16:11Z 35.4K followers, 21.6K engagements


"Taking a look at the experimental wind gust product we're running for HAFS all of the different HAFS versions show gusts of at least [---] kt (140 mph) over parts of the #Jamaica coast in a few days. This storm is going to be a multi-hazard threat: rain wind and surge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982197368641438122)  2025-10-25T21:27Z 35.4K followers, 14.2K engagements


"Really interesting morning mission in #Melissa. The storm had somewhat surprisingly leveled off after overnight rapid intensification but of course it's still a powerful Category [--] with a couple more days before landfall. We'll see if it resumes intensification or if ERCs+a bit of shear cause it to stay steady. Could see the stadium effect though the eye was cloudy in spots. Definitely not something to take lightly in Jamaica Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as it turns NE this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982482770782818347)  2025-10-26T16:21Z 35.4K followers, 115K engagements


"Wild ride in Hurricane #Melissa today. My first time ever in a Category [--] and it was definitely the most turbulent I've ever experienced. I was processing the dropsonde data and sending it out - some of these are up there with about as strong as Atlantic hurricanes can get. Definitely take this one seriously in Jamaica and Cuba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982837687045247295)  2025-10-27T15:51Z 35.5K followers, 330.3K engagements


"@369Hurricane Nope it looks like an eyewall merger happened this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982838716977578402)  2025-10-27T15:56Z 35.5K followers, 43.2K engagements


"@blamarre Haha that was the Air Force plane I didn't see any birds on our flight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982876102885552442)  2025-10-27T18:24Z 35.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Gotta get to bed since we'll be up at [--] am to do another mission into #Melissa right before landfall in Jamaica tomorrow. Here's a video I took today going through the NE eyewall into the eye. I had to tilt the phone up to get a view of the eye because it was so cylindrical (not the classic stadium effect). Reminded me a lot of Hurricane Michael in 2018"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982918405414863242)  2025-10-27T21:12Z 35.5K followers, 719K engagements


"Just landed after an absolutely insane flight with @NOAA_HurrHunter into #Melissa just before landfall in #Jamaica. I was processing the dropsonde data before it went out. When I saw the [---] m/s (219 knots) just above the surface I couldn't believe it. My display only goes to [---] by default. Such a sad situation for residents in its path. Probably will be a swath of tornado like damage. I think we also almost tied a flight level wind record today. Unfortunately tied the Labor Day hurricane for lowest pressure at landfall in the Atlantic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983223753799524628)  2025-10-28T17:26Z 35.5K followers, 610.6K engagements


"This post aged very well unfortunately. Rapid intensification for #Melissa was probably easier to predict in this case than some because of the extremely favorable large-scale conditions. But it's also worth noting that some of our newer models were also hinting at a historical hurricane. Most of the runs of our experimental version of HAFS-B have been calling for a Category [--] several runs (from early on) for the extreme 160+ knots that we saw. A big part of the reason this version of HAFS did so well with this forecast is it correctly showed the W/SW turn south of Jamaica which put the storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983265734508925111)  2025-10-28T20:12Z 35.4K followers, 126.8K engagements


"@allbamacfb Haha I don't know if we would have gotten to [---] mph but if it had gone even a little further west and missed this trough that turned it towards Jamaica we might have seen some pretty crazy intensity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983286247544983862)  2025-10-28T21:34Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"I would imagine that this piece of data along with the insane sonde winds and low-level TDR will be looked at in post-season to see if the peak intensity of #Melissa might have been even higher and tied or beaten Allen (1980) for the all-time strongest Atlantic hurricane. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at [---] knots for #Melissa -- which according to the developer at CIMSS is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone. https://t.co/Bu0XMbREvV The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at [---] knots for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983305086211371411)  2025-10-28T22:49Z 35.4K followers, 252.7K engagements


"@Climawcosta Yup. In real time no need to quibble over [---] knots vs [---] vs [---] (they're all similar and destructive which is what matters for warning folks). But in post season you can take the time to dig into the science a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983307267249496270)  2025-10-28T22:57Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"I did my MS thesis on eyewall slope There's a weak correlation between slope and intensity but a strong one between eye size and slope. Smaller eyes tend to be more vertical. Compare yesterday with a [--] mile eye (more cylindrical) to today with a [--] mile eye (more sloped). In talking to @AndyHazelton yesterday who's been flying Melissa with @NOAA_HurrHunter he described the cloud bank around Melissa's eye as appearing more vertical than sloped in appearance (the ubuquitous stadium effect). Interesting to see that more upright look here as well. In talking to @AndyHazelton yesterday who's been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983310031941668970)  2025-10-28T23:08Z 35.4K followers, 63.1K engagements


"Interesting and challenging final mission for me this morning in #Melissa processing sondes for the @NOAA_HurrHunter flight. Obviously Cuba and Jamaica had weakened the core significantly but it now has a much larger wind field. Honestly the never ending small bumps are tougher on my stomach than a single huge jolt from an eyewall like we got yesterday. Fascinating to see how these storms evolve but unfortunately a lot of land areas took a big impact. Also wanted to shout out @TropicalTidbits and @cyclonicwx for their great websites which display a lot of data including the recon data. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983594761572511944)  2025-10-29T18:00Z 35.4K followers, 39.2K engagements


"Unfortunately when I saw the wind measurements we were getting yesterday in #Melissa I knew a swath of wind damage and defoliation like this was going to happen. At least there are still some structures standing and hopefully #Jamaica is able to get help to rebuild quickly. Good morning Most communities are currently without electricityas a result you might be unable to get through to your families. We are hoping they will be able to send through calls and messages soon. 🎥: Fyffes Pen St.Elizabeth https://t.co/9DdvWPjn1p Good morning Most communities are currently without electricityas a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983605560307335483)  2025-10-29T18:43Z 35.4K followers, 34.5K engagements


"This was pretty wild. I went to bed around [--] Monday evening ahead of our early flight the next day into #Melissa and fully expected the storm to be in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle when I woke up similar to #Maria right before Puerto Rico. Instead somehow it did yet another merger and became one of the strongest hurricanes the world has ever seen. This is definitely going to be a major research focus for this storm. Still thinking about #Melissa's extremely smooth merger EWRC yesterday. An outer eyewall developed rapidly shrunk to the size of the inner eyewall and merged with it."  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983612423086207469)  2025-10-29T19:10Z 35.5K followers, 266.5K engagements


"@CraigSetzer Yeah maybe just enough shear to keep it from being truly axisymmetric"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983617515147424241)  2025-10-29T19:30Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"This looks like the pictures you see in the Deep South with an EF4 tornado. Extremely high-end hurricane wind damage from #Melissa. Bluefields Westmoreland. https://t.co/TaKB1ORA3i Bluefields Westmoreland. https://t.co/TaKB1ORA3i"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983682413764214854)  2025-10-29T23:48Z 35.4K followers, 52K engagements


"This is a video from our flight the other day into #Melissa as we were going through the eyewall into the eye. It gives you some idea of the level of turbulence and shows how awesome the pilots and crew are to keep the plane steady. Also wanted to give a shout out to the maintenance crew for keeping Kermit in good shape during the sequence. We didn't have a single flight get scrapped during what ended up being almost a week of missions. Inside the cockpit of NOAA's WP-3D while flying into Hurricane Melissa https://t.co/TWV5yTqZZG Inside the cockpit of NOAA's WP-3D while flying into Hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983869292719329631)  2025-10-30T12:11Z 35.5K followers, 466.9K engagements


"@meulenbeld_rick @jwthiesing @WeathermanAAA_ Maintenance - replacing a part. Honestly pretty expected after [--] (or whatever it was) back to back missions on NOAA42 at that point. Crew worked their butt off to get us out in time to get what data we could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983907248096030724)  2025-10-30T14:42Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Rather strong signal on dynamical and AI models for a couple of potential strong typhoons to form in the West Pacific over the next week or so. The first invest 98W looks to move through the southern Philippines and into the South China Sea. The second a later system has an even stronger signal but it's still a little ways out. This region along with the Caribbean is notorious for extreme storms in Northern Hemisphere fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984228224046420250)  2025-10-31T11:57Z 35.5K followers, 28.1K engagements


"There's been a mean trough over the Southeast CONUS for much of the peak of hurricane season under high-latitude blocking to the north. This has acted as a wall for storms approaching from the east. Melissa could have been a threat to the US if it got a little further west but a shortwave was able to dip far enough down to pull it out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984263432477040719)  2025-10-31T14:17Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Last week with the forecasts for #Melissa I noticed that coupled hurricane models were showing a "cold" wake behind the storm but still 27-28C (the typical threshold for supporting a major hurricane is about 28C). Sure enough it looks like observations show about those values south of Jamaica. Goes to show how anomalously warm the Caribbean has been (and how deep the warmth goes) that a Category [--] was able to move that slow for so long and yet the ocean only cooled to a level that would still support a major hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984730324060790873)  2025-11-01T21:12Z 35.5K followers, 63.8K engagements


"Looks like #Kalmaegi is intensifying heading into the Philippines but not quite as much as DeepMind was suggesting earlier. HAFS shows landfall of a Category 3/4 storm this afternoon - still a very impactful typhoon. The peak in intensity might be in a few days crossing the South China Sea as it heads west towards Vietnam"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985322107547336994)  2025-11-03T12:24Z 35.4K followers, 15.2K engagements


"My surface-level hot take is that this year is the changed-climate version of our [----] analog with Erin [----] (v Erin 2001) Humberto [----] (v Humberto 2001) and Melissa [----] (v Michelle 2001) being turbocharged versions of their [----] counterparts. Fewer hurricanes but higher peak and extreme RI resulting in a similar level of ACE. Very interesting seasonal summary here. Despite ambient stability issues this year we still managed [--] category [--] hurricanes and [--] majors total. Oddly enough this season only featured [--] Hurricanes which is much lower than you would otherwise expect given the amount of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985394907859607919)  2025-11-03T17:13Z 35.5K followers, 34.4K engagements


"@IPRTropicUpdate Yeah that's where the analogy sorta breaks down a bit. Either that or we've got one more Caribbean storm coming haha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985414562749837386)  2025-11-03T18:31Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Not surprising if you were following in real-time but the GFS was absolutely horrible for track in #Melissa with a huge right bias. HWRF wasn't very good either. HAFS-A and HAFS-B were quite solid for both track and intensity. We'll see how the seasonal stats look but this might help push HWRF and HMON over the finish line of retirement for good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985445762063614025)  2025-11-03T20:35Z 35.5K followers, 21.2K engagements


"New depression #32W is coming together east of the Philippines. Very strong signal for this to turn into a powerful typhoon in the coming days. HAFS-A wastes no time in making it a ridiculous sub-900 175-knot supertyphoon by the weekend. We'll see if it gets that strong - Google Deepmind certainly supports the idea. Folks in Luzon and nearby areas are going to have to watch this one very very closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985696183197508069)  2025-11-04T13:10Z 35.5K followers, 28.2K engagements


"@ricobert11 How many Spanx does it take to compete with the Texas Tech oil money 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985708283328340315)  2025-11-04T13:58Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Beautiful morning to go vote in South Florida with lots of dry air around (IYKYK). But seriously definitely encourage you to go vote in your state and local elections today if you haven't already. It's an important right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985710369382232074)  2025-11-04T14:06Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I think there's probably a lot of coordination that would have to happen. The area east of the Philippines (based out of Guam or Okinawa) might be a little easier. It's a little different from the Atlantic where all these countries already have an established relationship with NOAA and NHC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1985736428232348141)  2025-11-04T15:50Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"In contrast #Kalmaegi has (re)developed a fairly compact inner core after moving through the Philippines and looks poised to intensify as it crosses the South China Sea and heads towards Vietnam. You can still see the easterly shear impinging on it but models suggest it will probably become at least a Category 3-4 equivalent before landfall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986074515747565973)  2025-11-05T14:13Z 35.5K followers, 16.9K engagements


"TS Fung-Wong is spinning up east of the Philippines. Still likely to impact Luzon as a strong Typhoon on Sunday. It's still a pretty broad system so intensification may be more gradual unless it can consolidate a smaller core. Upper-level winds continue to be quite favorable for intensification though. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986437722676904105 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986437722676904105"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986437722676904105)  2025-11-06T14:17Z 35.5K followers, 19K engagements


"Looks like we're going to get our first big cold front of the season across Florida next week. GFS shows dewpoints in the 10s all the way down to Lake Okeechobee. The wind direction here looks pretty favorable for cold across the Peninsula with N/NNW flow meaning minimal fetch over water (which is still pretty warm)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986477063549620661)  2025-11-06T16:53Z 35.5K followers, 17.6K engagements


"Fung-Wong is now a typhoon as it lumbers across the West Pacific toward the Philippines. The large size is probably why it has been slow to deepen though convection looks a little more concentrated near the inner core now so we'll see if rapid intensification commences. Operational and experimental versions of HAFS (I decided to run HFXB on it since there's nothing in the Atlantic or East Pacific right now) continue to show it becoming a very strong 130-140 knot supertyphoon (and a large one at that) before landfall. The large size will probably also exacerbate surge issues along the coast of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986802163188740170)  2025-11-07T14:25Z 35.5K followers, 31.3K engagements


"Friday afternoon AI models blog update with @danrothenberg and @brightbandtech on Typhoon Fung-Wong as it intensifies and heads towards the #Philippines. https://www.brightband.com/blog/typhoon-fung-wong-heads-towards-the-philippines-ai-models-discussion-11-7-2025 https://www.brightband.com/blog/typhoon-fung-wong-heads-towards-the-philippines-ai-models-discussion-11-7-2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986912375274975348)  2025-11-07T21:43Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Typhoon Fung-Wong has one of the biggest eyes I have seen from a TC in its formative stages. Usually this is the kind of eye you see from a slowly-decaying major hurricane after multiple ERCs. I guess the monsoonal nature of this system and the moist environment has led to its size. Very interesting how different TC structure can be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986929810120048785)  2025-11-07T22:52Z 35.5K followers, 46.3K engagements


"Finished adding Melissa to my hurricane tracking map. This will be the final Atlantic map for this year unless there's a surprise the next few weeks. Always interesting to see where storms cluster. Last year it was the Eastern Gulf. This year the cluster was focused in the SW Atlantic near Bermuda. Thankfully they avoided any major impacts though there were some from Melissa and Imelda. Very much seemed like there was a wall at 80W with persistent troughing giving the US a much needed break from hurricane landfalls. We almost had a very low impact year overall but unfortunately Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1987690759026561504)  2025-11-10T01:16Z 35.5K followers, 20.9K engagements


"Impressive cold coming tomorrow across Florida. HRRR shows temperature in the 40s all the way down to South Dade with Dewpoints in the 10s all the way into Broward. The forecast wind direction is perfect for getting cold into South Florida with N/NNW flow leading to minimal time over water. We'll see how this verifies but definitely looks like quite an early-season cold shot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1987859663656755352)  2025-11-10T12:27Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Let's play "spot the cold front": 68/59 on the north shore of Lake Okeechobee vs. 80/70 in West Palm Beach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1987911991391129934)  2025-11-10T15:55Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Cool visualizations of our flights into Hurricane Melissa with some comments from the crew members: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/STORM-MELISSA/HUNTERS/klvyjeaykpg/ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/STORM-MELISSA/HUNTERS/klvyjeaykpg/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1989363006883655944)  2025-11-14T16:01Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheHumanFixer FSU for college and Tampa Bay for pros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1989730439150375340)  2025-11-15T16:21Z 35.5K followers, [--] engagements


"While we have the spring predictability barrier to get through oceanic and atmospheric conditions pretty strongly suggest we'll be on the warm side of ENSO by next summer. How strong of a warm event probably depends on what happens in the spring (do we get additional MJO/WWB events). Given how much warmth has built up in the WPAC though a solid El Nio wouldn't surprise me. The warmest water on the entire globe is sitting [---] E in the Eq. Pacific & a prolonged Westerly Wind Burst is about to occur here. This will trigger a downwelling kelvin wave that should destroy La Nia [--] months from now &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1991141733401243715)  2025-11-19T13:49Z 35.5K followers, 12.4K engagements


"Sounds like there's some level of verification now that the dropsonde I processed on the Melissa flight on 10/28 right before landfall is now the strongest wind ever recorded by a dropsonde. Here's a picture I took of the ASPEN (dropsonde processing software we use to QC the data on the plane) screen. I usually set my axis limit to [---] m/s (about [---] mph) and only in the most extreme cases (like Beryl) has it ever even gotten close to that. In this case [---] m/s wasn't nearly enough. Based on where we dropped this sonde I knew it was likely to have some extreme low-level winds as it rotated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1991223843734843853)  2025-11-19T19:15Z 35.5K followers, 91.4K engagements


"Couple notes on this: [--]. The [---] mph sonde measurement was not a sustained wind but a gust. The reduction for that sonde based on what NHC typically uses would support 180-190 mph sustained winds. [--]. The [---] mph measurement was not at the sea surface but about [---] meters up. That being said even the sea-surface winds were [---] mph and given the terrain of Jamaica it's quite possible the 250-meter winds offshore made their way onto elevated terrain ashore. I would imagine this will be one piece of data (along with detailed looks at several other instruments) used for the final intensity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1991308741740806169)  2025-11-20T00:52Z 35.5K followers, 37.7K engagements


"Nice view of #Fina from Australia radar. The storm is currently pretty sheared but could intensify some in the coming days as long as it stays offshore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1991567841926291719)  2025-11-20T18:02Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Pretty sure the Earth's oceans could be boiled as the sun turns into a supernova and the GFS would still find a way to generate long-range hurricanes in the Caribbean from spurious vorticity off Venezuela"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1992270710681833945)  2025-11-22T16:35Z 35.5K followers, 14.1K engagements


"I can see why models have flirted with the idea of some December action in the Caribbean with an MJO pulse moving through and waters still warm across the area. Worth noting that "lower than average" shear doesn't mean "low shear" this time of year however. I honestly would be surprised to see development that late except maybe in the far south Caribbean (if that) but you never know I guess"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1992776566909084142)  2025-11-24T02:05Z 35.5K followers, 14.5K engagements


"It's been very dry across South Florida so far during meteorological fall with well below average rainfall in almost all counties. November has been particularly dry with virtually no rain in most areas. Drought conditions are spreading across the area and are even worse in North Florida. The next couple of months could plunge us deeper into drought as La Nia peaks. Hopefully some potential ENSO warming in January-March will lead to a pattern change - we can't afford to wait til next rainy season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1993703169679929797)  2025-11-26T15:27Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Honestly the fact that an offensive head coach could have Robinson McCoy and Danzy at receiver and only win [--] games is a fireable offense in itself. GREAT catch by Lawayne McCoy to move chains on fourth down. One handed. Gets leveled but holds on. A player to hold onto for next season. GREAT catch by Lawayne McCoy to move chains on fourth down. One handed. Gets leveled but holds on. A player to hold onto for next season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1994929791947214944)  2025-11-30T00:41Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Honestly the season was a little underwhelming given how favorable shear was at peak thanks to hostile stability and subsidence. The few storme that broke through really took off. New normal under climate change Or just a fluke year We'll see One thing that struck me about this hurricane season is just how conducive the western Atlantic was at its height. August wind shear is about as solid a predictor for seasonal activity as any. With Aug-Sep-Oct shear at record lows a Melissa-like storm felt like a matter of time. https://t.co/1TnrEnGoul One thing that struck me about this hurricane season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1995236897283826016)  2025-11-30T21:02Z 35.5K followers, 14.1K engagements


"@FLManWx Well it was a dangerous ridging pattern for a while but it flipped in mid August at a very fortuitous time. If Erin had happened a few days earlier I think it would have been an East Coast threat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1995477644050133343)  2025-12-01T12:58Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Afternoon blog with @brightbandtech and @danrothenberg on Invest 93W. Another potential flooding threat for the Philippines https://www.brightband.com/blog/invest-93w-heading-toward-the-philippines https://www.brightband.com/blog/invest-93w-heading-toward-the-philippines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1995585507179544799)  2025-12-01T20:07Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting to see the rest of the college football world come to grips with what FSU fans learned in [----]. The CFP isn't a playoff - it's the SEC/ESPN invitational. The College Football Playoff rankings reveal has become a clown show by any metric. Its a lame reality TV show that isnt actually based in reality: https://t.co/0BocP2Or1p The College Football Playoff rankings reveal has become a clown show by any metric. Its a lame reality TV show that isnt actually based in reality: https://t.co/0BocP2Or1p"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1996929351141724322)  2025-12-05T13:07Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@P_SimmsWX Yeah it looks neutral although the northward shifted ITCZ looks like an Atlantic Nia signature"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1998043359584391511)  2025-12-08T14:53Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"This would be an extremely short-sighted move. NCAR is a world-class organization and a leader in atmospheric science. And it's not as simple as "splitting up" the weather and climate portfolio. Seasonal/decadal (ENSO) and subseasonal (MJO) things that fall under the climate spectrum are hugely important to weather prediction and economic activity. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/12/16/trump-dismantle-national-center-atmospheric-research-climate/87798771007/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2001122583501042163)  2025-12-17T02:49Z 35.5K followers, 42.7K engagements


"This was a sneakily-interesting storm this year. Took a while to get going but had some impressive RI as it recurved east of Bermuda and also underwent some sort of merger ERC during our research flights. Should be a useful dataset to look at. NHC has completed its post-analysis and Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane #Gabrielle (September 17-25 2025). Gabrielle brought hurricane-force wind gusts to the Azores as a post-tropical cyclone. The report is available at: https://t.co/xgikpHpmrh https://t.co/xhXpgsR573 NHC has completed its post-analysis and Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2001728016670437652)  2025-12-18T18:55Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"We seem to be well on track to have La Nia end in the spring and have a +ENSO event develop in time for hurricane season. The mean La Nia atmospheric state in the Pacific is already collapsing w/ low-level westerly wind anoms consistently extending out into the Tropical West Pacific In fact our current ENSO state is quickly shifting to something between La Nia & a modoki/Central Pacific El Nino https://t.co/1VZkWfrhis The mean La Nia atmospheric state in the Pacific is already collapsing w/ low-level westerly wind anoms consistently extending out into the Tropical West Pacific In fact our"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2007866985237897631)  2026-01-04T17:29Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Latest ECMWF seasonal is also onboard with the idea of a full-scale El Nio developing by summer. The precipitation and pressure patterns depicted here suggest a fully coupled event with increased precip across the equatorial Pacific and reduced precip and anomalous high pressure across the Atlantic. Verbatim this look (coupled with the warmer Atlantic subtropics) would suggest a rather quiet [----] Atlantic hurricane season. We'll see how things evolve in the coming months. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008163850298810419 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008163850298810419"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008163850298810419)  2026-01-05T13:09Z 35.4K followers, 20.4K engagements


"Models are starting to indicate another robust MJO pulse crossing the Pacific over the next couple weeks. As a result we will see a westerly wind burst (WWB) over the West and Central Pacific this one potentially extending all the way to the dateline. With upper-ocean heat already on the rise from the last WWB and downwelling Kelvin wave (DKW) this event will likely finish off La Nia and nudge us towards El Nio. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008533844580876382 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008533844580876382"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008533844580876382)  2026-01-06T13:39Z 35.5K followers, 25.3K engagements


"Like the seasonal ECMWF January's NMME run shows a solid El Nio developing by summer. Looks like a +PMM as well. The Atlantic tropics look cooler than the subtropics here as well. Hard to get a more unfavorable overall look for the Atlantic (at this long range of course) than that. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008920796605915383 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008920796605915383"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2008920796605915383)  2026-01-07T15:16Z 35.4K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Lots of fun storylines with an Indiana-Miami natty.UM playing in their home stadium Mendoza's from Miami etc. Indiana is the better team I think but they both play defense so I bet it would be a good game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2009817583550378101)  2026-01-10T02:40Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Being an FSU/ACC fan this Indiana team reminds me of some of those Dave Clawson Wake Forest teams that won [--] games with a bunch of super seniors and his weird mesh RPO offense. The difference is Indiana actually recruits and plays defense apparently and Mendoza is a couple notches above any QB they had. Friday Hot Take: What Cignetti has done at Indiana is so unprecedented and outside the normal real of what modern CFB data tells us to expect. That I kind of suspect there is some kind of cheating going on. This isn't based on any evidence and is total speculation/gut. Friday Hot Take: What"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2010008596948426834)  2026-01-10T15:19Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Love these percentile maps from Ben. It's showing up in the Hovmller Diagrams as well.very anomalous westerlies even in an ensemble mean. Should continue to charge the warm water volume in the West/Central Pacific generate another downwelling Kelvin Wave and help push us towards El Nio. The upcoming westerly wind burst is forecast to break records in the West Pacific. Highly anomalous in both intensity and extent it will send lots of very warm water eastward. This warmth will surface in the eastern Pacific in Feb. and March as the ocean races toward El Nio. https://t.co/iu9JQYGGG1 The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2010733244585505068)  2026-01-12T15:18Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"21Z HRRR with the ultimate borderline event for Tallahassee snow - has snow in the NW part of the county all rain downtown and in SE Tally. It's gonna be close as to what actually happens. I'm not a huge fan of events driven by dynamic cooling when they occur near peak solar heating (as this one will be) - those couple degrees can make a big difference. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012658753468768653 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012658753468768653"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2012658753468768653)  2026-01-17T22:50Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@WrightDobbs Yeah hoping for an opportunity for some brief accumulation and fun pictures but that's probably about it if anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2012660508327907688)  2026-01-17T22:57Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"It's #cookiedad season again So far this morning the combination of cold weather and people excited about the U in the Natty is leading to good sales 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2013291473169428987)  2026-01-19T16:44Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@steviegmarshall Watch where the snow line and freezing temperatures at [---] hPa set up. This setup on the GFS would actually be pretty good for NC. Only thing is you'd want to be in place already to not have to drive through ice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2013429282509349224)  2026-01-20T01:52Z 35.5K followers, [---] engagements


"That was a really good game Wish it weren't 11:15 on a work night when it was ending 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2013466130401079532)  2026-01-20T04:18Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Tried my hand at some winter storm analysis using AI models to break down some of the synoptics associated with the likely impactful and widespread storm across the South this weekend: With @danrothenberg and @brightbandtech. https://www.brightband.com/blog/severe-winter-storm-in-store-for-the-southeast-ai-models-discussion-1-20-2026 https://www.brightband.com/blog/severe-winter-storm-in-store-for-the-southeast-ai-models-discussion-1-20-2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2013787599316422726)  2026-01-21T01:35Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Hoping this little warm sector surge is enough to save my Sunday AM connection in Atlanta (unfortunately I can't leave any earlier). Pretty remarkable northward trend with the weekend system. Still a nasty cold-air-damming signal there for much of the Carolinas but it's looking like ice/sleet might be more likely than snow. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014126893138641401 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014126893138641401"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2014126893138641401)  2026-01-22T00:04Z 35.5K followers, 14.1K engagements


"Not sure if it's a sign of the ENSO atmospheric state starting to flip or just the MJO state (probably both) but this active STJ and Gulf low on the GFS is a big change from what we've had recently. We'll see how it verifies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2014737508202942783)  2026-01-23T16:30Z 35.5K followers, 70.5K engagements


"I ended up switching today to a direct flight to Houston on American (I got an ecredit for Delta that I will hopefully be able to use for flying to San Diego for AMS Tropical in March). Just don't want to risk it with ice likely in the Atlanta area Sunday. Flying through Atlanta on Sunday morning 😬😬😬😬😬😬 Flying through Atlanta on Sunday morning 😬😬😬😬😬😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2014773536867406280)  2026-01-23T18:53Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@wx_tiger I guess the WSW motion if it materialized would put it in the 15-20% zone. We'll see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/902912733900918785)  2017-08-30T15:15Z 35.5K followers, [--] engagements

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