# ![@0xaporia Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1292508532823252994.png) @0xaporia Aporia

Aporia posts on X about fear and, if you, the first, fud the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1292508532823252994/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1292508532823252994/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +295%
- [--] Month [---------] +177%
- [--] Months [---------] +89%
- [--] Year [---------] +28%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1292508532823252994/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1292508532823252994/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +24%
- [--] Month [--] +88%
- [--] Months [---] +26%
- [--] Year [---] -9.10%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1292508532823252994/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1292508532823252994/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +0.19%
- [--] Month [------] +2.50%
- [--] Months [------] +36%
- [--] Year [------] +64%

### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1292508532823252994/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1292508532823252994/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #819 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  9% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #3349 [social networks](/list/social-networks)  6% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  2% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[fear and](/topic/fear-and) #91, [if you](/topic/if-you) #460, [the first](/topic/the-first) 5%, [fud](/topic/fud) #133, [fear](/topic/fear) #926, [greed](/topic/greed) #111, [ai](/topic/ai) #589, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 3%, [money](/topic/money) 3%, [all the](/topic/all-the) 3%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@apompliano](/creator/undefined) [@techdev52](/creator/undefined) [@0xchicoiner](/creator/undefined) [@ouspensq](/creator/undefined) [@heartereum](/creator/undefined) [@bitbotics](/creator/undefined) [@flophy453](/creator/undefined) [@valarukar](/creator/undefined) [@ozi](/creator/undefined) [@cointelegraph](/creator/undefined) [@zhusu](/creator/undefined) [@milesdeutscher](/creator/undefined) [@highpiledbooks](/creator/undefined) [@deitaone](/creator/undefined) [@subtleinduction](/creator/undefined) [@farmymeister](/creator/undefined) [@ryansadams](/creator/undefined) [@basilnas](/creator/undefined) [@counterpartytv](/creator/undefined) [@openai](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [BRAINROT (BRAINROT)](/topic/brainrot) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"One thing I notice often in comments is that people approach data with a verification mindset. They have an idea a hunch that a signal exists and they seek evidence to confirm it. But this gets the process backwards. The more productive question is not "how can I verify this signal" but "how quickly can I falsify it" Your attention should always be toward the data itself and you should be honest about signals when they genuinely exist. But the instinct to seek confirmation rather than disconfirmation leads people astray far more often than they realize. This verification bias manifests in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2018617306851512447)  2026-02-03T09:27Z 38.4K followers, 22.6K engagements


"Trading hack: Asset underperforming Just divide it by whatever's been absolutely ripping lately and call the low ratio a buy signal. No rationale needed. No thesis. You can make literally anything a buy signal if you price it against the best perfomer. Awesome innit #Ethereum valued in Silver has hit the lowest RSI ever. That's not a sell signal for $ETH. That's a buy signal for $ETH. https://t.co/UYE9rh1ynV #Ethereum valued in Silver has hit the lowest RSI ever. That's not a sell signal for $ETH. That's a buy signal for $ETH. https://t.co/UYE9rh1ynV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019000289316257924)  2026-02-04T10:49Z 38.4K followers, 32.4K engagements


"this is literally worse than the COVID crash (it isnt)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019432880573956555)  2026-02-05T15:28Z 38.4K followers, 20.5K engagements


"Today you can literally block everyone who posts that the fear and greed index is at [--] and your feed will be better forever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2021997286432321827)  2026-02-12T17:18Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


""The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost then production slows down. If the price is above cost profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time the increased production would increase the difficulty pushing the cost of generating towards the price." Satoshi Nakamoto (2010)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1985758486186049808)  2025-11-04T17:18Z 38.4K followers, 69.4K engagements


"Lmao Saylors such an idiot keeps buying the top dudes only up like 30% total. - CT legends currently down 80% on a low-cap gem they swore was the next ETH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990427547327185204)  2025-11-17T14:31Z 38.4K followers, 23.6K engagements


""Just DCA and hold long-term" worked when the asset class was being discovered. Now you're competing with funds algorithms and literal scammers who treat your "conviction" as exit liquidity. Passive strategies require passive markets. Crypto isn't that. And holding isn't a strategy. It's the absence of one. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016557893735084511 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016557893735084511"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016557893735084511)  2026-01-28T17:04Z 38.4K followers, 46.1K engagements


"Imagine telling your followers to ignore FUD then writing a full-blown article about some dumb takes while ignoring the main points people raise. Binance really thinks their customers are idiots"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2018554714745712834)  2026-02-03T05:18Z 38.4K followers, 17.5K engagements


"@Cointelegraph buying greed is better than buying fear its a meaningless metric"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019622954833735776)  2026-02-06T04:03Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@zhusu last time we hit such a zone you were the reason for it sir"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019627613762048233)  2026-02-06T04:22Z 38.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@milesdeutscher some additional data here: - returns following extreme index readings are inconsistent and noisy - indicator often fails in trending markets it encourages trading against the trend - results even contradict the fear = buy greed = sell logic bear market tings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019654893724696976)  2026-02-06T06:10Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Guy who spent the better part of the last [--] weeks posting about FUD with comments turned off wants you to know he actually doesn't care about FUD 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2020513610737356802)  2026-02-08T15:02Z 38.4K followers, 33.4K engagements


"Your next move should be obvious if you want generational wealth https://t.co/rSfsAwlBhv Your next move should be obvious if you want generational wealth https://t.co/rSfsAwlBhv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2020847582457495932)  2026-02-09T13:09Z 38.4K followers, 20K engagements


"Say you sit [-----] monkeys in front of a keyboard and a brokerage account and let them buy and sell stocks for [--] years. When its over you look at the results and surprise one monkey crushed it. Never lost more than 3%. Exposed every rally dodged every crash. Looks like a genius. But hes not a genius. Hes just the luckiest monkey out of [-----]. If you hand that monkey real money tomorrow it has no idea what its doing. It never did. Its a coincidence wearing a lab coat. i let an AI test [-----] trading strategies over [--] years of market data. the winner made money every single year. never lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2022557454375022619)  2026-02-14T06:24Z 38.4K followers, 471.1K engagements


"A trading signal is best understood as a measure of optimal market exposure rather than a buy or sell instruction. Think of it as a dynamic gauge that constantly reads market conditions (whether technical indicators fundamental data or other factors) and translates them into a recommended exposure level along a spectrum. At any given moment it indicates how you should be positioned. Its about maintaining alignment with what current conditions suggest is the appropriate level of risk. Profit or loss emerges as a natural outcome of how accurately the signal reads market conditions over time and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1995551012199846176)  2025-12-01T17:50Z 38.4K followers, 19.3K engagements


"@highpiled_books That if is doing all the heavy lifting. Which coins actually deserve that long-term expectation The graveyard is full of solid long-term holds that people DCAd into oblivion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016581247477133698)  2026-01-28T18:36Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"You're doing this backwards. You've identified historical bottoms first then noted what the Fear & Greed Index read at those moments. The actual useful question is: when the index showed these low readings what happened next Your approach guarantees a 100% success rate because you're starting from the outcomes and working backward. Why not look at all the times 'Extreme Fear' was hit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2021947298037596257)  2026-02-12T13:59Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"What Claude Code has revealed is that most people either have mediocre ideas or no ideas at all. The tool is a force multiplier for those who already know what they want to build and how to think through it systematically; it elevates competence rewards clarity and accelerates execution for people who would have gotten there anyway just slower. If you have a sharp vision and can break it into coherent steps Claude Code becomes an extension of your own capability. But there's another mode of use entirely. For people without that clarity the appeal is precisely that the input can stay vague;"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2012112111330091247)  2026-01-16T10:38Z 38.4K followers, 682K engagements


"If you're a text-based learner like me and someone who genuinely enjoys reading as the primary way to absorb information I've stumbled onto something that might be incredibly useful to you. What I've been doing is dumping all my bookmarks on a topic into Claude and asking it to first identify the content clusters (essentially what themes and ideas these articles actually revolve around) and then turn everything into an interactive e-book tailored to how I learn. The magic isn't just in the summarization but in making the material interactive in ways that articles typically aren't. Think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016777201945862167)  2026-01-29T07:35Z 38.4K followers, 84.1K engagements


"Downside momentum so relentless that the knife catchers are dusting off the Fear & Greed Index again some useful data 👇 🚨 NOW: Crypto Fear and Greed Index drops to "Extreme Fear" at [--] down from [--] last week. https://t.co/DaZIREUbN1 🚨 NOW: Crypto Fear and Greed Index drops to "Extreme Fear" at [--] down from [--] last week. https://t.co/DaZIREUbN1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2018302218449871079)  2026-02-02T12:35Z 38.4K followers, 51K engagements


"Isn't it convenient that the moment legitimate criticism of Binance surfaces you pivot to publishing articles about scammers and FUD none of which actually address the specific concerns the community is raising Almost looks like a deliberate attempt to conflate valid critics with bad actors. If exposing scammers was genuinely your priority why does this content only appear when Binance is under scrutiny It's hard not to see this as an attempt to lump legitimate critics in with bad actors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2018983108842754517)  2026-02-04T09:40Z 38.4K followers, 26.4K engagements


"Prepare for everyone who told you to buy the fear 10k higher to announce once again that the fear and greed index shows fear and its time to buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019115279964324116)  2026-02-04T18:26Z 38.4K followers, 10.3K engagements


"1) Present 99% bullish analysis 2) Bury a bearish scenario as a minor footnote 3) If price pumps: Celebrate your bullish call 4) If price dumps: Dig up that buried bearish line 5) Tell everyone "Told you so sign up for my newsletter" 6) Rinse and repeat next cycle Warned of this exact short-term breakdown into the 60Ks for a month https://t.co/18YKx0UnDr Warned of this exact short-term breakdown into the 60Ks for a month https://t.co/18YKx0UnDr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019293980203397603)  2026-02-05T06:16Z 38.4K followers, 26.1K engagements


"RT @0xaporia: "Buy the Fear sell the greed. Simple strategy but never disappoints on the long run" Let's say you actually implemented "b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019318460736762356)  2026-02-05T07:53Z 38.4K followers, [--] engagements


"What's most telling isn't the underlying controversy but how he is responding to it. He's clearly furious systematically addressing every piece of peripheral criticism while conspicuously avoiding the elephant in the room. 1) Attack the low-hanging fruits 2) Conflate legitimate critics with scammers 3) Instruct the community to dismiss all skeptics wholesale 4) Suppress dissent by disabling comments Great job 👍 At this point I've moved past caring about what actually happened. The response itself is disqualifying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019327182707859473)  2026-02-05T08:28Z 38.4K followers, 31.2K engagements


"It never ceases to amaze me that people will monitor a metric and form firm conclusions without any empirical validation. You're looking at some marketing measure created by a person you don't know whose construction you don't understand and whose signals you've never subjected to any degree of testing. Despite this people append highly confident conclusions to it apparently on the basis that it sounds. plausible I guess something something don't trust verify etc. Sell greed buy extreme fear https://t.co/yZjvBiXCz7 Sell greed buy extreme fear https://t.co/yZjvBiXCz7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019673756617073111)  2026-02-06T07:25Z 38.4K followers, 14.8K engagements


"When the daily coin issuance denominated in USD falls below 50% of its 1-year moving average compulsory sell-side liquidity is considered extremely low leading to bottoms forming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1612448626902441988)  2023-01-09T13:58Z 38.4K followers, 310.8K engagements


"the silver team needs to focus on UTILITY and address the community concerns down 5% and no response in the discord is unacceptable where are the devs this is a DISASTER the community is strong and behind the project but we need PROGRESS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016913346985963905)  2026-01-29T16:36Z 38.4K followers, 117.5K engagements


"Over the next few days youll probably see the Fear & Greed Index making the rounds again. I already broke down the same data back in November when the index was in single digits and price was 20k higher than it is now. I outlined why its a pretty unreliable metric. Worth a read in my opinion and might save some normies from engagement-farming influencers pushing the index again. One last note on the Fear & Greed Index When people encounter the Fear and Greed Index in their feeds they typically operate under a straightforward assumption: low index values predict positive future returns high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019437494110912894)  2026-02-05T15:46Z 38.4K followers, 24.1K engagements


"Honey care to explain why theres a stray earring in your car And why you didn't come home until 3:00 AM last night 🤣🤣🤣 There is a lot of FUD being spread. Cant believe youre buying into it. The fundamentals of this marriage have never been stronger. Ask my friends. I am currently heads down BUILDING a surprise for our anniversary and youre spreading FUD This household is SAFU. Keep building. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021796741603836220 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021796741603836220"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2021796741603836220)  2026-02-12T04:01Z 38.4K followers, 44.1K engagements


"RT @0xaporia: Over the next few days youll probably see the Fear & Greed Index making the rounds again. I already broke down the same da"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2021837167912214790)  2026-02-12T06:41Z 38.4K followers, [--] engagements


"Great lesson here. "Major bottoms showed extreme fear" (okay sure) "Extreme fear signals a major bottom" (completely unproven by this data) Those are two completely different claims. The first is almost trivially true. But the second is the only one that would be actionable and it's the one not being addressed. "Every time it rained the ground was wet" (trivially true) "Every time the ground was wet it had rained" (not necessarily true sprinklers exist) You can't learn anything about predictive power this way because you've excluded all the cases where the same predictor appeared but the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2021949912250769425)  2026-02-12T14:09Z 38.4K followers, 67.9K engagements


"As a beginner youre not starting at [--] and climbing to a [---]. Youre starting at [--] and immediately getting dragged into the negatives. The first voices you encounter are influencers who either have no idea what theyre talking about or worse know exactly what theyre talking about and have calculated that bullshit gets more engagement. By the time you notice this youre not at zero anymore. Youre at [--]. Youve absorbed frameworks that are actively wrong intuitions that point backward habits that cost money. The journey to [---] starts with unfucking yourself back to [--] first."  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2022034872492085471)  2026-02-12T19:47Z 38.4K followers, 12.5K engagements


"Open my feed and it's wall-to-wall AI content: new models new benchmarks new subscriptions to consider. Every week a new model breaks everything. Everyone is optimizing. But nobody seems to know what for. The means have become the entire conversation and the ends have quietly vanished. These are people in love with the idea of leverage who have nothing to lift. And 90% of them have something to sell you. Beware"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2022258974746149363)  2026-02-13T10:38Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"What most people call patterns is usually just their availability & recency bias speaking. The tendency to overweight examples that are easily recalled or recently experienced treating them as more representative and predictive of the present than they actually are. Utterly useless. Bitcoin is now perfectly mirroring the [----] market crash. According to this chart $BTC will dump to $29000 in [----]. Are you actually prepared for that scenario https://t.co/BTIa0SJtBA Bitcoin is now perfectly mirroring the [----] market crash. According to this chart $BTC will dump to $29000 in [----]. Are you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2022932839013003275)  2026-02-15T07:15Z 38.4K followers, 12.9K engagements


"The human brain is a prediction machine wired to reduce uncertainty. Its default mode is to simplify complexity. This is why people often crave clear-cut answers: ambiguity triggers discomfort. When someone expresses probabilistic thinking it violates social norms that reward decisiveness and confidence. Probabilistic thinkers disrupt this dynamic they trigger a mismatch between their nuanced stance and others expectations of clarity. People resist actively engaging with counterarguments to stress-test their beliefs. It requires metacognition and epistemic humility. They resist this because"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1987812367615381647)  2025-11-10T09:19Z 34.9K followers, 19.9K engagements


"Trading is fundamentally no different from the countless decisions we make in everyday life; it's simply about weighing options based on their potential risks and rewards. When you decide whether to leave early for an appointment to avoid traffic you're balancing the risk of wasted time against the risk of being late. Even mundane choices like whether to pack an umbrella or take a shortcut through an unfamiliar neighborhood involve assessing potential downsides against potential benefits. To me this suggests that obsessing over chart patterns and treating technical analysis as some mystical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1988496812383097332)  2025-11-12T06:39Z 34.9K followers, 16.5K engagements


"@DeItaone to say it with the words of SBF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1989328938917622018)  2025-11-14T13:45Z 34.1K followers, 12.5K engagements


"As a retail trader I accept my role as someone who simply takes on risks that others want to offload. The most straightforward example is trend following: you're getting paid to provide an exit for traders who recognize a potential trend but aren't willing to wait and see if it materializes. They understand that most trends fail to follow through meaning a drawdown is typically imminent. By buying their position you're taking on the risk they want to avoid; the risk that this setup like most others won't work out. This transfer of risk is the fundamental source of your potential profit. When"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1989668903820067195)  2025-11-15T12:16Z 35K followers, 47.4K engagements


""10 on fear and greed for two days in a row is rare and the making of a bottom." I don't care what you think. I don't care about your [----] fractal. [--] on fear and greed for two days in a row is rare and the making of a bottom. https://t.co/8E8uKOvjZC I don't care what you think. I don't care about your [----] fractal. [--] on fear and greed for two days in a row is rare and the making of a bottom. https://t.co/8E8uKOvjZC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990109495708557332)  2025-11-16T17:27Z 37.5K followers, 226.8K engagements


"Twitter and CT in particular have fostered a culture of intellectual gatekeeping where people routinely mock retail normies etc. This creates an environment where people feel intimidated to ask genuine questions worried they'll be ridiculed or dismissed. It ultimately holds people back from learning and growing. Let me tell you as someone who's been there: Never hesitate to ask questions. Asking questions is the fastest way to unfuck your understanding. And if you've been in that position of feeling lost or unsure remember to pay it forward; take the time to give thoughtful genuine answers to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990328321217843433)  2025-11-17T07:57Z 38.1K followers, 56.6K engagements


"The frequency with which people cite the fear and greed index (and the confidence they express when discussing it) reveals much about their approach to markets. The critical questions they should be asking are what price did after hitting extreme values whether the index has any predictive power for future returns and whether it provides any actual edge. Yet these are the questions that go unasked. A simple way to test this would be backtesting the common signals people tout such as buying when the index hits [--]. Yet most people never bother to test their assumptions. They prefer believing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990637836601626995)  2025-11-18T04:26Z 35K followers, 12.4K engagements


"@SubtleInduction The purpose was simply to data-test influencer claims about extreme environments in an accessible way and show the results aren't as impressive as advertised. Love your data you laid out the reasons elegantly thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990809573402243197)  2025-11-18T15:49Z 34.9K followers, [----] engagements


"credits to @0xChicoiner who came up with the idea the other day btw https://x.com/0xChicoiner/status/1990792126117118227s=20 @0xaporia this indicator has nuances and definitely is not as simple as "buy the fear sell the greed" fun fact: in lower timeframes (30 or [--] day) the historical returns of buying extreme greed are BETTER than buying extreme fear chart: [--] days BTC returns (y axis) vs F&G (x axis) https://t.co/qmRzPKZ3zG https://x.com/0xChicoiner/status/1990792126117118227s=20 @0xaporia this indicator has nuances and definitely is not as simple as "buy the fear sell the greed" fun fact:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991478890611765295)  2025-11-20T12:09Z 35K followers, 22.4K engagements


"@APompliano im tired"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991744653151121516)  2025-11-21T05:45Z 35K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Adding some data to what Mercury said since RSI is another fantastic example (probably an indicator you will see a lot on the feed soon as well) To be clear: I'm not saying the indicator itself is worthless; its value depends entirely on how you use it. And yelling "RSI oversold [--] and overbought 70" (or any other threshold for that matter) is not a meaningful way to do it. The first step should always be defining your rationale: what market behavior are you trying to capture From there understand what data might help you identify or measure that behavior (or falsify your assumption)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991777489320853692)  2025-11-21T07:55Z 35.1K followers, 79.8K engagements


"@ouspensq @APompliano Its not only possible its the case in almost half of the readings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991781748586508354)  2025-11-21T08:12Z 35K followers, [---] engagements


"@farmy_meister @ouspensq @APompliano Above zero: 59.4% Below zero: 40.6% Median return: 2.60%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991845309950120138)  2025-11-21T12:25Z 35K followers, [---] engagements


"@RyanSAdams I backtested this and its wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991907213485511153)  2025-11-21T16:31Z 35.1K followers, 30.9K engagements


"@0xChicoiner Since many people asked for various timeframes: heres a plot of mean and median returns vs days forward per category. You can see how extreme fear consistently underperforms even [--] months out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1992127468925251930)  2025-11-22T07:06Z 37.1K followers, 37.9K engagements


"I was concerned the mean and median alone might give a false impression so I added interquartile bands to show the range containing the middle 50% of the data for each day forward. Both charts use the same y-axis scale to maintain comparability. I hope this helps better assess the variance at play and gives a more complete picture"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1992634954518315123)  2025-11-23T16:42Z 35.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@basilnas_ Not trying to demean you man but this sounds like pure brainrot. How does reasoning like that feed into your positions Thats the real question. What actionable conclusions do you draw from it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1994121525524582578)  2025-11-27T19:09Z 35K followers, [---] engagements


"I think many discretionary traders misunderstand the true value of confluence in trading. The common mistake is believing that success comes from stacking multiple indicators or even from selecting the highest-quality signals available. However neither the quantity nor the individual quality of indicators is what actually matters most. The key principle that people often overlook is correlation between their signals. When you add an indicator that essentially measures the same market dynamic as another one youre already using youre not actually strengthening your analysis. Instead youre"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1994808619162804345)  2025-11-29T16:40Z 38.1K followers, 38.7K engagements


"@TechDev_52 1) Develop model 2) Overfit to historical data 3) Watch model crash and abandon it 4) Back to 1)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1995185256224206924)  2025-11-30T17:36Z 37.1K followers, 11.9K engagements


"I have a strong tendency to procrastinate by creating dashboards organizing systems and perfecting setups all while accomplishing virtually nothing meaningful. Thats why Ive circled back to using Google Sheets for most tasks. Its simpler and keeps me from getting lost in elaborate systems. Still its something I constantly need to remind myself of because you get confronted with shiny solutions everywhere you look. This is honestly one of my most frustrating personal traits. You end up completing only a fraction of what you set out to do yet the whole time you feel productive because youre"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1995241605620793379)  2025-11-30T21:20Z 37.2K followers, 14.7K engagements


"@heartereum I assume he knows something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1995706341445214346)  2025-12-02T04:07Z 37.1K followers, [----] engagements


"This is remarkably similar to how many beginners start in sports betting: wagering on the heavy favorite in soccer when they're up 2-0 with two minutes left for instance. It feels safe you win 98% of your bets very cozy. The fundamental issue is that high-probability bets offer minuscule returns. When something is priced at 98% you're only earning [--] cents on the dollar risked. When the "sure thing" fails you lose your entire stake and because you've been earning so little on your wins a single loss will wipe out hundreds of profitable bets. A high win rate means nothing without genuine edge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1996164475066425404)  2025-12-03T10:27Z 37.5K followers, 159.3K engagements


"Let's look at some quick data on this. We'll use reasonable and well-meaning assumptions while sprinkling in some heavy optimism about your skills here and there. Proposed idea: Find bets on prediction markets showing 98% probability (e.g. resolving next day). The thesis: there's an edge true probability is actually higher. Price-insensitive people sell early below true market value to cash out (we're just going to assume this is the case for the sake of testing). Assumptions: Implied probability by market: 98% True probability of winning: 99.5% Position sizing: Fractional Kelly You're smart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1996491223113080843)  2025-12-04T08:06Z 37.3K followers, 40.3K engagements


"Gambling is a blunt category. It lumps together activities that rely entirely on randomness (slots) with activities in which skill plays a role (poker sports betting trading). I like to look at it like this: Games of chance Chance overwhelmingly determines the outcome and the player's decisions have negligible influence on long-term expected value. Games of skill Player decisions significantly influence outcomes and skill can reliably increase expected long-term returns. Most games however are mixed games. They contain both a luck component and a skill component. In games where randomness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1996961160260653128)  2025-12-05T15:13Z 37.3K followers, 32.4K engagements


"Gambling is a blunt category. It lumps together activities that rely entirely on randomness (slots) with activities in which skill plays a role (poker sports betting trading). I like to look at it like this: Games of chance Chance overwhelmingly determines the outcome and the player's decisions have negligible influence on long-term expected value. Games of skill Player decisions significantly influence outcomes and skill can reliably increase expected long-term returns. Most games however are mixed games. They contain both a luck component and a skill component. In games where randomness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1998000723619918294)  2025-12-08T12:04Z 37.2K followers, [----] engagements


"trading prediction markets and slots are gambling just like Michelin cuisine McDonald's and moldy leftovers are food"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1998046845470421352)  2025-12-08T15:07Z 37.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The most valuable skill you can develop is training yourself to be relentlessly skeptical not just about the content flooding your feed but especially about your own ideas. It's about recognizing that in an area this competitive chances are your ideas are actually bad. I've had more dumb ideas than I can count. The problem is that most people never engage in this kind of critical thinking. Many traders stumble into the game through some amateur form of technical analysis and never question the underlying assumptions they've adopted (don't ask how I know). Whether it's because they lack the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1999005259755090143)  2025-12-11T06:36Z 37.3K followers, 21.4K engagements


"This will seem trivially obvious but social networks are fundamentally misaligned with successful trading. The core incentive structures (engagement metrics) naturally push people toward sharing content that maximizes social validation rather than trading performance. They reward what *appears* impressive or generates attention which often has little correlation with what actually generates consistent profits. The deeper issue is that your motivations become shaped by how your network perceives you rather than by objective outcomes. When your primary feedback loop is social approval biases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1999507918060683392)  2025-12-12T15:53Z 37.3K followers, 18.8K engagements


"I fundamentally disagree with the notion that "the edge is the trader." It dangerously shifts accountability onto psychology and personal failings when strategies underperform rather than acknowledging that edge must be rooted in the strategy itself. And most strategies simply suck ass. If you execute a system with no edge perfectly you cannot think or feel your way into profitability it simply doesn't work. But this perspective will have you believe that you're the problem due to discipline emotions etc. Where the trader does matter is in two distinct areas: first in possessing the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1999858808424628677)  2025-12-13T15:07Z 37.3K followers, 28.6K engagements


"To truly progress in trading (or any intellectual domain) you must formulate your beliefs in a way that makes them explicitly falsifiable. By intentionally making your ideas vulnerable to being disproven you strip away ambiguity and create a pathway to objective truth. Without this standard you are merely protecting your ego rather than discovering what actually works. In the context of markets "truth" is defined strictly by profitability yet the harsh reality is that most strategies hold no actual advantage. To protect your capital from them you must possess a clear mechanism for discarding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2000968438798303413)  2025-12-16T16:37Z 37.3K followers, 17.9K engagements


"Totally agree its just curve fitting. When you break down whats actually being said here its hilariously circular: In a bull market price went up again after correcting. Thats it. Thats the whole insight. Of course RSI went below [--] and recovered during a bull market Its literally just describing what a correction looks like when it doesnt break the trend. No shit lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2001384268342124609)  2025-12-17T20:09Z 37.3K followers, [----] engagements


"You can learn a lot about strategy by looking at financial markets through the lens of any other market. I have a childhood friend who never went to university but got a solid blue-collar education and built his own metal fabrication business in a small localized area. Great guy he's doing really well and while many factors contribute to his success one key element is that he operates in a market the big players simply ignore. Whether it's because the small local population isn't worth their time the costs of serving such a small area don't pencil out or they just can't be bothered. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2001930880911344065)  2025-12-19T08:21Z 37.4K followers, 34.9K engagements


"@TechDev_52 1) Develop model 2) Overfit to historical data 3) Watch model crash and abandon it 4) Back to 1) Im sure its gonna work out this time 🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2005719400775549266)  2025-12-29T19:15Z 37.3K followers, 17.9K engagements


"I was thinking about what thought I'd want to finish the year on something worth compressing into a few paragraphs. So I just brain dumped [--] thoughts into this post instead. [--]. Starting with rationale grounds you in reality from day one giving you a filter to ignore nonsense instead of drowning in it. [--]. The fastest path to a viable idea isn't through incremental improvements but through deliberate destruction. [--]. Building better starts with breaking faster. The competitive advantage belongs to whoever can kill bad ideas before they drain resources. [--]. Simple systems that break one at a time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2006373710798692352)  2025-12-31T14:35Z 37.5K followers, 28.1K engagements


"Agentic coding (vibe coding) shares fundamental similarities with any domain that requires making decisions on inputs to achieve desired outputs. Whether its trading poker or prompting an AI the core dynamic remains the same: you provide some form of input and receive an output based on the quality of that input. It creates a feedback loop that can either reinforce good practices or mask poor ones depending on how you interpret the results. However theres a segment of people who are drawn primarily to the gambling-like thrill of the process. They put minimal effort into crafting prompts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2007335615361102185)  2026-01-03T06:17Z 37.5K followers, 11.4K engagements


"@TechDev_52 because you overfitted it to make it appear significant like always hope that answers your question"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2007528562270642296)  2026-01-03T19:04Z 37.4K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Out of all the garbage sayings that get thrown around in trading there's one I actually like: if you're not humble the market will humble you. It's not just about losing money on a bad trade or getting caught in a blowup. It's the way variance reaches into your heart and distorts everything you think you know. Bad decisions get rewarded just often enough that they start feeling like insight while good ones get punished frequently enough that you begin to doubt whether you ever understood anything at all. Usually the market doesn't humble you by proving you wrong once though it can certainly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2008064936967053382)  2026-01-05T06:36Z 38.1K followers, 20.1K engagements


"@heartereum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2008830653434085403)  2026-01-07T09:18Z 37.4K followers, [----] engagements


"I believe one of the better ways to improve CT is quite simple: post when you actually have something meaningful to say. Most people don't follow this principle but it's how I approach it. That's why I don't post daily I don't always feel I have something worth articulating or capturing for eternity. I view Twitter as a tool almost like a public journal. It's a space where I can document thoughts that matter to me and where others can either challenge me when I'm off track or validate when I'm onto something. I only share what feels worth preserving; ideas and observations I genuinely want to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2010652368077983961)  2026-01-12T09:57Z 37.5K followers, 11.1K engagements


"I completely agree different platforms can serve different purposes for different people. For me I'm deliberately building a curated presence. That's my choice and I respect that others have different goals. My point is: everyone complains about the signal-to-noise ratio on CT yet many of those same people contribute to the problem by posting every intrusive thought. I'm trying to minimize the noise I add to people's feeds. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010654512726307164 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010654512726307164"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2010654512726307164)  2026-01-12T10:06Z 37.5K followers, [---] engagements


"I despise trading psychology. Most of it is snake oil peddled by scammers who deflect from their own inadequate skills by blaming traders for lacking discipline. But there's one distinction I find genuinely interesting and surprisingly difficult to capture: the difference between emotions and sentiment and how they feed into decision making. Sentiment operates on a broader timescale it describes market regimes that unfold over weeks or months. It's the underlying bias that persists across weeks or months. Emotions by contrast are immediate and myopic; they react to what's happening right now."  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2011015167593623694)  2026-01-13T09:59Z 38.1K followers, 16.5K engagements


"Selecting the right abstraction layer is one of the most important meta-skills in decision-making yet its rarely discussed directly; perhaps because its genuinely difficult to grasp. Its the ability to recognize which level of analysis actually contains the signal you need and to shift fluidly between levels as the situation demands. Get this wrong and youre solving the wrong problem; get it right and the correct answer often becomes obvious. The signal youre looking for only exists at the right layer and no amount of rigor at the wrong layer will compensate. Most expertise teaches you to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2011156041795280915)  2026-01-13T19:19Z 38.1K followers, 18.5K engagements


"This is why meta-skills have become the real bottleneck. Systems-level thinking architectural reasoning understanding how components interact and how to orchestrate them toward a precise outcome: these are what separate effective use from flailing. Execution is no longer the constraint. The constraint is whether you can think clearly enough to direct execution in the first place. And this changes the distribution of outcomes. When execution was hard it masked differences in thinking quality; plenty of good ideas died because implementation was a wall. Now that wall is gone and whats left"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2012212242591211603)  2026-01-16T17:15Z 37.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@OpenAI Interesting strategy to respond to two months of Anthropic dominance by making your own product worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2012251550798828006)  2026-01-16T19:52Z 38.1K followers, 12.9K engagements


"Ive never understood the collective fixation on geopolitical developments and macro events. The overwhelming majority of people opining on trade wars or diplomatic tensions have no meaningful framework for translating these narratives into actionable decisions (myself very much included). I guess most people amplify these stories because doing so projects a certain intellectual seriousness a veneer of strategic depth to their positioning. It feels sophisticated to discuss these things and you fool yourself into holding positions with convictions that deserve anything but. If youve genuinely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2014023297076208116)  2026-01-21T17:12Z 38.1K followers, [---] engagements


"People often confuse consensus with consensus pricing. Saying the majority is wrong is too simplistic. A better way to think about it is through sports betting. Take an NBA matchup: OKC vs. the Hornets. Suppose the odds are: OKC: [----] implied probability 91% Hornets: [----] implied probability 17% The right question isnt What does the majority think because its obvious the majority thinks OKC will win; thats simply the higher-probability outcome. This observation doesnt give you any insight whatsoever into which side to take because its already baked into the odds. The real question is: Do the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2014248494869987559)  2026-01-22T08:07Z 38.3K followers, 13.3K engagements


"@nalimboi @grok summarize this in [--] short sentence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016865946246197298)  2026-01-29T13:28Z 38.3K followers, [---] engagements


"2 simple rules - V shaped recoveries are scams - stop picking a bottom and wait for accumulation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1484899704001511427)  2022-01-22T14:44Z 38.4K followers, [---] engagements


""I thought trading strategies work best if you have your own unique strategy that is better than others AND no one else has it. Otherwise you are just buying and selling at the same time as others." The reality is that many profitable trading strategies aren't secret at all; they're well-documented and widely known (of course you can always tweak here and there). For the most part they're harvesting risk premia: you get compensated for taking on risks that others aren't willing or able to bear. Most people think trading is always about finding some hidden alpha. But that's not realistic for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1980159348149002356)  2025-10-20T06:29Z 38.3K followers, 197.1K engagements


"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing crypto investors that there's such a thing as an equity risk premium for most tokens; that simply holding through volatility will inevitably be rewarded with superior returns. The traditional equity risk premium is grounded in simple economic fundamentals: When you buy stocks you're accepting volatility risk in exchange for a share of corporate profits that have historically grown above the risk-free rate. Backed by decades of data. The value of most tokens depends entirely on future buyers paying more than current buyers without any"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983076792303841364)  2025-10-28T07:42Z 38.4K followers, 184.5K engagements


"Twitter works best when you treat it like a public diary spilling all the retarded shit you think and do for everyone to see and nudge you back on track like bumpers on a race track"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1984180234573467719)  2025-10-31T08:46Z 38.4K followers, 22.4K engagements


""What if we're barely halfway with the parabolic phase yet to begin" There's a very elegant and simple answer to that: you apply basic trend-following principles that help you capture that move when/if it happens while protecting your downside if it doesn't materialize. No need for all that mumbo jumbo about business cycles. Obviously this trend-following approach doesn't make for compelling marketing copy if you're in the business of monetizing people's dreams and hopes via newsletter subs. You need to make some blunt prediction. Many think "the cycle" has topped. Some think months ago. What"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1994009855858737523)  2025-11-27T11:46Z 38.3K followers, 69.3K engagements


"A useful mental exercise is to treat your current holdings as the only reference point that matters and ask yourself a simple question: if everything I hold were liquidated to USD today would I reallocate the capital in exactly the same way This reframe strips away the psychological weight of where you entered what you paid or how far you are from some previous peak. It forces you to evaluate each position on its present merits rather than on the sunk costs or emotional attachments you've accumulated along the way. Look up reference dependence. Your portfolio's all-time high is just one data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2013619603658727619)  2026-01-20T14:28Z 38.3K followers, 22.6K engagements


"I did something people don't like Random people are tweeting about it This must be a coordinated attack sure buddy @Spigg1115 There is some coordinated attack recently picking that as a topic. 🤷♂ Lots of accounts I don't recognize suddenly tweet roughly copy and paste on the same topic. @Spigg1115 There is some coordinated attack recently picking that as a topic. 🤷♂ Lots of accounts I don't recognize suddenly tweet roughly copy and paste on the same topic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2016497280606449910)  2026-01-28T13:03Z 38.3K followers, 24.8K engagements


"Genuinely frustrating how this guy drops post after post about how criticism is toxic while never once engaging with the actual substance of whats being said. Read the room"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2017121230520742168)  2026-01-30T06:22Z 38.3K followers, 38K engagements


"If your buy signal fires and I can still lose half my position before it works then what exactly did the signal signal It didnt tell me *when* it told me *eventually*. DCA already assumes *eventually*. Except with DCA I skip the hundreds of hours of chart-staring the false conviction and the psychological torture of watching a confirmed signal bleed out for six months. So whats the edge You spend hundreds of hours overfitting a signal to historical data backtesting every variable to death and then tell your audience a 50% drawdown is within expected range Yes this is possible. And it wouldn't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2017274327570231304)  2026-01-30T16:30Z 38.3K followers, 26.2K engagements


"shhh is oke "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost then production slows down. If the price is above cost profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time the increased production would increase the https://t.co/PInS5E6sAV "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost then production slows down. If the price is above cost profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time the increased production would increase the https://t.co/PInS5E6sAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2017676242196078653)  2026-01-31T19:07Z 38.3K followers, 21.9K engagements


"@TaikiMaeda2 bear market tings innit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2019291135076897018)  2026-02-05T06:04Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"its not the top when normies start buying its when theyre up 5x and keep adding if they text you what coins to buy you pull the uno reverse on them; they know better this is their environment dumb down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1875228336693375019)  2025-01-03T17:10Z 38.4K followers, 17.8K engagements


"@ZeMirch somehow even $KASTA by moon carl from last cycle sounds better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1898029002968776743)  2025-03-07T15:12Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"If you're not obsessed you're competing with someone who is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1939596098072645913)  2025-06-30T08:05Z 38.4K followers, 29.3K engagements


"If you've got some free time and want to dive into Claude Code for the first time here's something practical to get your hands dirty with for the first time. Try replicating this chart it shouldn't be too hard and it lets you play around with data visualization and analysis while having you in the driver's seat forming ideas and directing the process. Theoretically you can do this even in the web interface but I suggest using Claude Code to get a grip on CLI stuff. 1) Find CSV files for Bitcoin price and F&G Index 2) Ask Claude to create a price chart using Python libraries for data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2008482671081496966)  2026-01-06T10:15Z 38.4K followers, 46.5K engagements


""Buy the Fear sell the greed. Simple strategy but never disappoints on the long run" Let's say you actually implemented "buy fear sell greed" in a simple way when the index was released. No discretionary nonsense just simple systematic rules like suggested in the quoted tweet: Buy when [--] (extreme fear) Sell when [--] (extreme greed) On top of that you understand you need some sort of risk management and cant just slam your entire portfolio into every signal. Thats why instead of going all-in or all-out you only buy or sell 3% of your cash/BTC stack with each signal. This is what you get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1990757064218489081)  2025-11-18T12:20Z 38.4K followers, 239.3K engagements


"One last note on the Fear & Greed Index When people encounter the Fear and Greed Index in their feeds they typically operate under a straightforward assumption: low index values predict positive future returns high index values predict negative future returns In other words the index functions as a mean reversion indicator: when markets are overbought (extreme greed) or oversold (extreme fear) people expect that prices will revert toward the mean from these extremes. This is a hypothesis we can test. We can examine actual returns following extreme index readings. An easy and fast way to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/1991430658573410786)  2025-11-20T08:57Z 38.4K followers, 199.5K engagements


"The worst thing for a beginner is to be massively right for the absolutely wrong reasons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xaporia/status/2003118167615549804)  2025-12-22T14:59Z 38.4K followers, 44.8K engagements

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