[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/twitter/Adrian_R_Morris) "I have been posting about various aspects of the BTC Treasury phase and I'm glad to see others broadening their view. This is true whether for $MSTR $MTPLF or others. "mNAV" is market sentiment and the market (not investors on Twitter) wants the frameworks for $BTC Co's to show innovation and adaptability before the perception around these equities will change" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976262474157654376) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-09T12:24Z 29.1K followers, 14.4K engagements "mNAV = Sentiment: this is true for $MSTR $MTPLF $TSWCF essentially all $BTC Treasury Co's. Thank you for your attention to this matter" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1977408449274359928) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-12T16:18Z 29.1K followers, 9032 engagements "$MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: Happy Monday and Good Morning everyone it's Cornday. @Strategy has acquired another XXX $BTC and they now HODL 640250 $BTC closing in on the 650000 mark. This $BTC purchase was made using the $STRK $STRF $STRD ATM Equity Offerings. Link:" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1977709266258862252) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-13T12:13Z 29.1K followers, 77.7K engagements "Talking $BTC $MSTR and "stuff" with some Bros tomorrow. This will be fun" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976343213331055063) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-09T17:45Z 29.1K followers, 5913 engagements "I expanded my multivariate analysis of $MSTR back to the BSE Inception in Aug 2020. I added variables such as M2 DXY VIX BTC Sentiment Data etc. I then performed tests for normality homoskedasticity and autocorrelation (non-issues). TL/DR of this adjusted R2 analysis might help us explain XX% of MSTR price action. After multiple runs the "participation" as trading volume and dollar turnover accounts for XXX% of price variance. Which means even if the ATM accounted for XXX% of variance based on trading volume BTC still accounts for XX% of overall price variance (a ratio of 40-1). For good" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978919995943063834) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T20:24Z 29.1K followers, 18.2K engagements "$MSTR: @Strategy Preferred Offerings are now on Robinhood. $STRF $STRK $STRC but no $STRD yet" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1973609809258881484) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-02T04:43Z 29.1K followers, 15.5K engagements "Correction: $STRC is the only 'Strat-Preferred' that is currently available to buy. But $STRK and $STRF are searchable $STRD is not. Not sure why that is but my guess is that all of the Prefs will be made available at some point which is big for $MSTR" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1973693530838352329) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-02T10:16Z 29.1K followers, 7385 engagements "Morgan Stanley bends the knee to Bitcoin:" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976656672560189755) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-10T14:30Z 29.1K followers, 2331 engagements "Went from $15M to $4K on $SUI Gee-Sus-Christos (I hope this is fake)" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976981043967373809) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-11T11:59Z 29.1K followers, 9813 engagements "Markets move on sentiment and narrative (the bid) liquidity is what creates capacity. "Fundamentals" lend justification to the bid. HPC AI is a secular trend with a powerful narrative. So we shouldn't be surprised that $IREN $CIFR $HUT and some of the others are performing. I thought it could be a possibility for 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978490758454988846) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T15:58Z 29.1K followers, 8030 engagements "@LuistoXBT Gold is up XX% YTD Bitcoin is up XX% YTD - During a bull run. Gold is acting different and so is Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978760699162562946) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T09:51Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@HeathTaylo84427 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv You going to be ok" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978953079539339623) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T22:35Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements "OK - @KDTrey5 got his Coinbase account back. Now that he's seen the appreciation in price is he a going to be a Bitcoiner I think my dream would to be on a Bitcoin panel or fireside chat with @saquon @RussellOkung @KDTrey5 @obj to discuss their journey" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1968965018818343065) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-09-19T09:06Z 29.1K followers, 5100 engagements "I agree with @SantiagoAuFund - We have to remember this is credit (liquidity) driven not fiscal stimulus (government money printing) driven. Both will create 'liquidity' but market liquidity seeks quality while stimulus seeks speculation. $BTC won't go parabolic but it will run" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1973614703764271511) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-02T05:03Z 29.1K followers, 3773 engagements "The fastest ETF to $100B is $VOO (2011 Days) but $IBIT is just shy of $100B after only XXX Days. What" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975254756752040269) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-06T17:40Z 29.1K followers, 7343 engagements "$BTC $MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: As mentioned in previous weeks this Chart Data Visualization represents a "working model" that I am using to explain $MSTR price variance. I have now updated the visualization to assess MSTR over 60-90-120-180 day periods. The Different "Lookback Periods": Snapshot for 01-21-2025 to 10-03-2025 XX Day window (Blue): This period is most responsive to recent changes and shows short-term relationship strength. XX Day window (Orange): Balanced view. Filters out some noise while remaining reasonably current. XXX Day window (Green): More stable shows medium-term" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975332984938242186) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-06T22:50Z 29.1K followers, 37K engagements "When $MSTR gets the #2 spot I'll be able to taste the saltiness on my feed" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975571827071291762) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-07T14:40Z 29.1K followers, 40.8K engagements "Something the community may not want to swallow is the "A.I. Trade" more specifically A.I. HPC Bitcoin Miner trades such as $IREN $CIFR $WULF have taken a lot of attention away from $BTC Treasuries AND from $BTC itself. Again - Markets move on sentiment but sentiment will shift" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976314502527475946) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-09T15:51Z 29.1K followers, 16.8K engagements "This was a hit & insiders knew it was coming. It's a coordinated leverage flush same dynamic as always. How do people in this space still not understand that almost all of the 'alts' & 'memes' are venture capitalist pump-n-dump scams This isn't a toxic Bitcoiner talking point either it's the truth insiders create and control most of the activity on these coins. It takes nothing to move the volume price on them and there are still bag holders from last cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976954211720966515) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-11T10:13Z 29.1K followers, 29.6K engagements "Woke up on my Birthday and this is what I saw. I dont think we see $BTC at $444K this year but" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978427497373987005) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T11:47Z 29.1K followers, 21K engagements "Well. Something to consider" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978478139044204663) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T15:08Z 29.1K followers, 7533 engagements "@HeathTaylo84427 @IIICapital I've done the statistical analysis on the ATM. It isn't that. A convenient narrative lacking evidence and does not hold up to scrutiny" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978553806850810176) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T20:09Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@ConceptC0in You are assuming the Market sees BTC Derived Earnings and Derivatives Earnings from CSP's as cash flow" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978556728334758376) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T20:20Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@mikewmunz @KristophJeffers @JesseKobernick $MSTR remains a X of X but in my view there are a lot of dynamics at play with these companies and many are looking at effect vs cause" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978605443250258250) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T23:34Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "Gold tends to lead and $BTC tends to follow. Though Gold has been leading $BTC for quite a while now. This is somewhat of a regime change we are witnessing" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978753000911831072) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T09:20Z 29.1K followers, 17.4K engagements "People keep thinking that @saylor was just making excuses or making things up when he mentioned bots & market sentiment manipulation. These bots farms are rampant not just in China. Look into the "dead internet" theory if you want to destroy your ability to believe in anything" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978763529596350860) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T10:02Z 29.1K followers, 27.6K engagements "@QuisColton @saylor Enough with the ATM. People on X complain about it the market doesn't care. That's not driving price" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978771560845464060) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T10:34Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "$BTC: Relax" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978874357318586535) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T17:23Z 29.1K followers, 5790 engagements "@shrugit_ Validation of mNAV isn't an objective statement nor is it even remotely logical it's your opinion. Aka: sentiment mNAV is a function of market demand and BTC Yield is thus a function of mNAV. NAV is a function of mNAV as well. There is no escaping this causal chain" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979249967538802968) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:15Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@ChrisMMillas @klaus_koo A future expectation is a sentiment and BTC Yield as a direct function of mNAV is more of a lagging sentiment indicator than a "fundamental". But _()_/" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979253392334803083) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:29Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements "You are confusing "reason" with rationalization. Sure fundamentals can be an anchor or justification for an investment but the interpretation of those fundamentals is still subjective and sentiment driven. You and I can look at the same data and draw different conclusions or I can think the data doesn't matter vice versa. Now compound that across the market" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979256836621820363) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:42Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "Watch @karpathy pour some very cold water on the LLM AGI conversation. I'm not one that thinks AGI is around the corner but I'm wondering what @sama will say in response to this. No doubt this will circulate as "A.I. Bubble" fodder but IMO this is about managing expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979448711932711163) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-18T07:25Z 29.1K followers, 2925 engagements "This is a bad idea using @grok to optimize user feeds like this will amplify confirmation bias lead to even more content being buried and will ironically amplify more bot content to boot" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979479177691853225) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-18T09:26Z 29.1K followers, 7334 engagements "$MSTR: Just in case anyone missed it the Margin Maintenance Ratio on @RobinhoodApp for $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC has been dropped to 50%" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975569171649077611) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-07T14:29Z 29.1K followers, 70.1K engagements "Wait $MSTR is tracking Bitcoin Gold. Interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976014203258535983) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-08T19:57Z 29.1K followers, 26.5K engagements "$MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: People still don't get it but I'll keep saying it until everyone does. The ATM and share dilution are not what has been driving share price. Do I have to do a video series on this or something" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976265556786282744) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-09T12:36Z 29.1K followers, 33.1K engagements "$MSTR: Here is the latest update to my working price variance model. I've now included the following data points: VIX over the period M2 Data Bitcoin Sentiment (Fear & Greed) and Options Open Interest. These additional factors may help explain up to XX% of $MSTR price action. The ATM Equity Offerings are not a statistically significant factor" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1977853083414938108) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-13T21:44Z 29.1K followers, 19.6K engagements "@ourgoodlifeuk For $MSTR $IBIT" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978884471060599026) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T18:03Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@RobSteele3 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv Not even remotely and this isn't a predictive model it is descriptive of what has happened" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978923428062142720) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T20:38Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@WilliamCat29206 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv You're welcome" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978924974321631419) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T20:44Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "I did mention the Options expiry that I'll hit tomorrow last week no More BS on deck" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978960911315476865) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T23:07Z 29.1K followers, 6126 engagements "@HMRMSTR I've been telling people that the markets move on sentiment for almost a year and getting more vocal about it in the last few months. Some listen some don't. _()_/" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978966603464049137) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T23:29Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements "Literally every Macro Tailwind for Q4 is now gone and it seems we only have Macro Headwinds. _()_/ I need to re-assess still bullish but have to "read the room" and adapt. Some great insights here:" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979084162452853048) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T07:16Z 29.1K followers, 10.4K engagements "@btc_overflow" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979247154691739681) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:04Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@ChrisMMillas @shrugit_ You can't justify mNAV the market will rate it as it sees fit" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979253618097426818) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:30Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "There it is: $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC now available on @RobinhoodApp This is HUGE" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1974164602993954832) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-03T17:28Z 29.1K followers, 8289 engagements "$ASST @BenWerkman 🔥😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975188257718841742) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-06T13:15Z 29.1K followers, 10.9K engagements "Agreed @TickerSymbolYOU. The $NVDA $CSCO comparison is not remotely valid. Image Credit: @Speculator_io" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975886073902612762) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-08T11:28Z 29.1K followers, 7115 engagements "Well implied volatility reflects market sentiment by measuring expected future price movement amplitude which indicates the market's expectations. That's why my charts focus on "Signal v Amplitude" with BTC MSTR. I've been proving pretty decisively that sentiment moves markets so not only is IV sentiment it's literally sentiment about market sentiment" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975895217325896095) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-08T12:05Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "Kerrisdale literally copied their $MSTR short and distort report from early last year and applied it to $BMNR. I am not an $ETH bull but I hope that they get lit up on this trade and @fundstrat Granny Shots all over them" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976059658654843253) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-08T22:58Z 29.1K followers, 6302 engagements "How I'm looking at this $BTC $MSTR price action knowing full well market players are trying to prevent a breakout" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976444207750578216) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-10T00:26Z 29.1K followers, 10.5K engagements "Insiders knew Tariff Friday was coming and lined up positions to profit. Someone always knows so I bought $BTC $IBIT and will buy more if we go lower. NFA I just want to make sure that I am heavily positioned when the move happens" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976841964890079579) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-11T02:47Z 29.1K followers, 4859 engagements "I've got to agree here this is still a hit job but the fact that I've either seen heard or read about a "bubble" - every single day - for the last two months means markets were definitely looking for a reason any reason to overreact. They got it" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976849150479417515) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-11T03:15Z 29.1K followers, 5956 engagements "$MSTR: Good Morning everyone there's no Tariffs on Dots" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1977357095201636532) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-12T12:54Z 29.1K followers, 29.9K engagements "Sweeping some cash into $IAU & other 'precious metals' ETF's has turned out to be one of my smartest moves in the last year. Who would have thought _()_/" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978052621115277714) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-14T10:57Z 29.1K followers, 2291 engagements "$IREN: I'm old enough to remember when I was mocked calling for $XXX and then $XXX $IREN targets in May/July LAST year. Now so many are saying the same thing" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978183959952720186) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-14T19:39Z 29.1K followers, 6528 engagements "Whether $MSTR $MTPLF or another BTC Treasury Company mNAV = Market Sentiment. The Market will rate it as it sees fit. All equity "multiples" are sentiment driven. BTC Equities are a new model and the market what's to see "what's next". This to me represents Phase X of the model" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978555039133446526) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-15T20:14Z 29.1K followers, 27K engagements "Just because @saylor was in Austin it doesn't mean he was on JRE. That said this would be huge for $BTC $MSTR if he ends up on JRE" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978808753735520542) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T13:02Z 29.1K followers, 17K engagements "I have been talking about the decreased volatility on $BTC (as a result of $IBIT asset maturity and increasing MCap) for a few months now. As the volatility decreases on $BTC what do you think happens to the volatility profile of $MSTR. @saylor can't control market dynamics or mNAV and it's STILL not because of the ATM so everyone relax" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978889592121217097) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T18:23Z 29.1K followers, 36.3K engagements "I also ran this $MSTR variance analysis with the same level of rigor along a shorter timeframe going back to 12-2024. In this model I included options open interest gamma exposure and put call ratios. These attributes (in their aggregate) might help explain XX% of $MSTR price action over the period" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978927105951043756) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T20:52Z 29.1K followers, 6717 engagements "Homoskedasticity means: The model is equally good or bad at modeling across scenarios. Heteroskedasticity means: The model's accuracy will change depending on the situation. We want heterosked we don't want to see homosked because the "spread" of errors will change. The lack of homoskedasticity in the model actually makes sense because MSTR becomes more volatile and should be less predictable during extreme market conditions. So this model will have varying levels of precision" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978951245579850025) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T22:28Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@NathanpartPrice Zoom in on the image and focus on this box. I did an analysis to see what has impacted $MSTR price these are the factors it's not the ATM. Anyone that says it is doesn't know what they are talking about" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978958109524504750) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-16T22:55Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "@MHCanes18 @saylor That's not how volatility or implied volatility works. The market creates those dynamics not Saylor" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1978991804675432475) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T01:09Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "With the Regional Bank issues we're seeing I'm bringing up this @FabiusMercurius post from way back that discusses the CRE (Commercial Real Estate) issue. Since C0v1d ended there are many office buildings sitting empty despite the heavy push to get people back in office. It's Small Regional Banks that are on the hook for much of this debt. Interest rates are still high and loan defaults are increasing. What if current market activity is a "front running" of a Fed pivot to QE from QT because the 2023 banking crisis never fully resolved. Everyone's fixated on an A.I. Bubble but what if it's an" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979035616538169759) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T04:03Z 29.1K followers, 8123 engagements "So crack it (you can't) and then announce to the world that you are a thief what you stole where you stole it from and how you stole it. @MartinShkreli is a smart one" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979690857982038127) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-18T23:27Z 29.1K followers, 4317 engagements "$SMLR $ASST: Watch @natbrunell sit down with Matt Cole & Eric Semler to walk through the acquisition of Semler Scientific by @strive. A must watch:" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1970536189016109501) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-09-23T17:10Z 29.1K followers, 14.2K engagements "$MSTR $MTPLF: Apparently in addition to "it's not the ATM" I'll have to add "it's not the MSW" to my FUD busting repertoire. @DylanLeClair_ already gave a great answer I'll provide some additional context here:" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1975680271518474516) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-07T21:50Z 29.1K followers, 18.9K engagements "$MTPLF: Another pause for @Metaplanet_JP and even though we're in Q4 I don't think this will have material impact on share price. Sentiment and Liquidity will" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1976660997919408457) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-10T14:48Z 29.1K followers, 3180 engagements "Exactly. Whether its $MSTR $MTPLF or another BTC Treasury Company mNAV = Market Sentiment. This was a fundamental misunderstanding in this space that is being rectified" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979246815649403001) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-17T18:03Z 29.1K followers, 12K engagements "Hey @grok this is "theoretically" the case and (speaking in very general terms) most projections about quantum computers are based off of systems that have been used to factor XX and XX or perform calculations that can essentially be done with a pen & paper. This says nothing about the many practical and also physical limitations that have to be contended with to build a QC with millions of QBits" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979700045370024078) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-19T00:04Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements "This "cycle" is actually different" [X Link](https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/status/1979746163613151457) [@Adrian_R_Morris](/creator/x/Adrian_R_Morris) 2025-10-19T03:07Z 29.1K followers, 6564 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@Adrian_R_Morris
"I have been posting about various aspects of the BTC Treasury phase and I'm glad to see others broadening their view. This is true whether for $MSTR $MTPLF or others. "mNAV" is market sentiment and the market (not investors on Twitter) wants the frameworks for $BTC Co's to show innovation and adaptability before the perception around these equities will change"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-09T12:24Z 29.1K followers, 14.4K engagements
"mNAV = Sentiment: this is true for $MSTR $MTPLF $TSWCF essentially all $BTC Treasury Co's. Thank you for your attention to this matter"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-12T16:18Z 29.1K followers, 9032 engagements
"$MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: Happy Monday and Good Morning everyone it's Cornday. @Strategy has acquired another XXX $BTC and they now HODL 640250 $BTC closing in on the 650000 mark. This $BTC purchase was made using the $STRK $STRF $STRD ATM Equity Offerings. Link:"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-13T12:13Z 29.1K followers, 77.7K engagements
"Talking $BTC $MSTR and "stuff" with some Bros tomorrow. This will be fun"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-09T17:45Z 29.1K followers, 5913 engagements
"I expanded my multivariate analysis of $MSTR back to the BSE Inception in Aug 2020. I added variables such as M2 DXY VIX BTC Sentiment Data etc. I then performed tests for normality homoskedasticity and autocorrelation (non-issues). TL/DR of this adjusted R2 analysis might help us explain XX% of MSTR price action. After multiple runs the "participation" as trading volume and dollar turnover accounts for XXX% of price variance. Which means even if the ATM accounted for XXX% of variance based on trading volume BTC still accounts for XX% of overall price variance (a ratio of 40-1). For good"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T20:24Z 29.1K followers, 18.2K engagements
"$MSTR: @Strategy Preferred Offerings are now on Robinhood. $STRF $STRK $STRC but no $STRD yet"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-02T04:43Z 29.1K followers, 15.5K engagements
"Correction: $STRC is the only 'Strat-Preferred' that is currently available to buy. But $STRK and $STRF are searchable $STRD is not. Not sure why that is but my guess is that all of the Prefs will be made available at some point which is big for $MSTR"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-02T10:16Z 29.1K followers, 7385 engagements
"Morgan Stanley bends the knee to Bitcoin:"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-10T14:30Z 29.1K followers, 2331 engagements
"Went from $15M to $4K on $SUI Gee-Sus-Christos (I hope this is fake)"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-11T11:59Z 29.1K followers, 9813 engagements
"Markets move on sentiment and narrative (the bid) liquidity is what creates capacity. "Fundamentals" lend justification to the bid. HPC AI is a secular trend with a powerful narrative. So we shouldn't be surprised that $IREN $CIFR $HUT and some of the others are performing. I thought it could be a possibility for 2025"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T15:58Z 29.1K followers, 8030 engagements
"@LuistoXBT Gold is up XX% YTD Bitcoin is up XX% YTD - During a bull run. Gold is acting different and so is Bitcoin"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T09:51Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@HeathTaylo84427 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv You going to be ok"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T22:35Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements
"OK - @KDTrey5 got his Coinbase account back. Now that he's seen the appreciation in price is he a going to be a Bitcoiner I think my dream would to be on a Bitcoin panel or fireside chat with @saquon @RussellOkung @KDTrey5 @obj to discuss their journey"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-09-19T09:06Z 29.1K followers, 5100 engagements
"I agree with @SantiagoAuFund - We have to remember this is credit (liquidity) driven not fiscal stimulus (government money printing) driven. Both will create 'liquidity' but market liquidity seeks quality while stimulus seeks speculation. $BTC won't go parabolic but it will run"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-02T05:03Z 29.1K followers, 3773 engagements
"The fastest ETF to $100B is $VOO (2011 Days) but $IBIT is just shy of $100B after only XXX Days. What"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-06T17:40Z 29.1K followers, 7343 engagements
"$BTC $MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: As mentioned in previous weeks this Chart Data Visualization represents a "working model" that I am using to explain $MSTR price variance. I have now updated the visualization to assess MSTR over 60-90-120-180 day periods. The Different "Lookback Periods": Snapshot for 01-21-2025 to 10-03-2025 XX Day window (Blue): This period is most responsive to recent changes and shows short-term relationship strength. XX Day window (Orange): Balanced view. Filters out some noise while remaining reasonably current. XXX Day window (Green): More stable shows medium-term"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-06T22:50Z 29.1K followers, 37K engagements
"When $MSTR gets the #2 spot I'll be able to taste the saltiness on my feed"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-07T14:40Z 29.1K followers, 40.8K engagements
"Something the community may not want to swallow is the "A.I. Trade" more specifically A.I. HPC Bitcoin Miner trades such as $IREN $CIFR $WULF have taken a lot of attention away from $BTC Treasuries AND from $BTC itself. Again - Markets move on sentiment but sentiment will shift"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-09T15:51Z 29.1K followers, 16.8K engagements
"This was a hit & insiders knew it was coming. It's a coordinated leverage flush same dynamic as always. How do people in this space still not understand that almost all of the 'alts' & 'memes' are venture capitalist pump-n-dump scams This isn't a toxic Bitcoiner talking point either it's the truth insiders create and control most of the activity on these coins. It takes nothing to move the volume price on them and there are still bag holders from last cycle"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-11T10:13Z 29.1K followers, 29.6K engagements
"Woke up on my Birthday and this is what I saw. I dont think we see $BTC at $444K this year but"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T11:47Z 29.1K followers, 21K engagements
"Well. Something to consider"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T15:08Z 29.1K followers, 7533 engagements
"@HeathTaylo84427 @IIICapital I've done the statistical analysis on the ATM. It isn't that. A convenient narrative lacking evidence and does not hold up to scrutiny"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T20:09Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@ConceptC0in You are assuming the Market sees BTC Derived Earnings and Derivatives Earnings from CSP's as cash flow"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T20:20Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@mikewmunz @KristophJeffers @JesseKobernick $MSTR remains a X of X but in my view there are a lot of dynamics at play with these companies and many are looking at effect vs cause"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T23:34Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Gold tends to lead and $BTC tends to follow. Though Gold has been leading $BTC for quite a while now. This is somewhat of a regime change we are witnessing"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T09:20Z 29.1K followers, 17.4K engagements
"People keep thinking that @saylor was just making excuses or making things up when he mentioned bots & market sentiment manipulation. These bots farms are rampant not just in China. Look into the "dead internet" theory if you want to destroy your ability to believe in anything"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T10:02Z 29.1K followers, 27.6K engagements
"@QuisColton @saylor Enough with the ATM. People on X complain about it the market doesn't care. That's not driving price"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T10:34Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"$BTC: Relax"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T17:23Z 29.1K followers, 5790 engagements
"@shrugit_ Validation of mNAV isn't an objective statement nor is it even remotely logical it's your opinion. Aka: sentiment mNAV is a function of market demand and BTC Yield is thus a function of mNAV. NAV is a function of mNAV as well. There is no escaping this causal chain"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:15Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@ChrisMMillas @klaus_koo A future expectation is a sentiment and BTC Yield as a direct function of mNAV is more of a lagging sentiment indicator than a "fundamental". But ()/"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:29Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements
"You are confusing "reason" with rationalization. Sure fundamentals can be an anchor or justification for an investment but the interpretation of those fundamentals is still subjective and sentiment driven. You and I can look at the same data and draw different conclusions or I can think the data doesn't matter vice versa. Now compound that across the market"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:42Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Watch @karpathy pour some very cold water on the LLM AGI conversation. I'm not one that thinks AGI is around the corner but I'm wondering what @sama will say in response to this. No doubt this will circulate as "A.I. Bubble" fodder but IMO this is about managing expectations"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-18T07:25Z 29.1K followers, 2925 engagements
"This is a bad idea using @grok to optimize user feeds like this will amplify confirmation bias lead to even more content being buried and will ironically amplify more bot content to boot"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-18T09:26Z 29.1K followers, 7334 engagements
"$MSTR: Just in case anyone missed it the Margin Maintenance Ratio on @RobinhoodApp for $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC has been dropped to 50%"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-07T14:29Z 29.1K followers, 70.1K engagements
"Wait $MSTR is tracking Bitcoin Gold. Interesting"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-08T19:57Z 29.1K followers, 26.5K engagements
"$MSTR $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC: People still don't get it but I'll keep saying it until everyone does. The ATM and share dilution are not what has been driving share price. Do I have to do a video series on this or something"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-09T12:36Z 29.1K followers, 33.1K engagements
"$MSTR: Here is the latest update to my working price variance model. I've now included the following data points: VIX over the period M2 Data Bitcoin Sentiment (Fear & Greed) and Options Open Interest. These additional factors may help explain up to XX% of $MSTR price action. The ATM Equity Offerings are not a statistically significant factor"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-13T21:44Z 29.1K followers, 19.6K engagements
"@ourgoodlifeuk For $MSTR $IBIT"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T18:03Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@RobSteele3 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv Not even remotely and this isn't a predictive model it is descriptive of what has happened"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T20:38Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@WilliamCat29206 @coryklippsten @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @AdamBLiv You're welcome"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T20:44Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"I did mention the Options expiry that I'll hit tomorrow last week no More BS on deck"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T23:07Z 29.1K followers, 6126 engagements
"@HMRMSTR I've been telling people that the markets move on sentiment for almost a year and getting more vocal about it in the last few months. Some listen some don't. ()/"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T23:29Z 29.1K followers, XX engagements
"Literally every Macro Tailwind for Q4 is now gone and it seems we only have Macro Headwinds. ()/ I need to re-assess still bullish but have to "read the room" and adapt. Some great insights here:"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T07:16Z 29.1K followers, 10.4K engagements
"@btc_overflow"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:04Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@ChrisMMillas @shrugit_ You can't justify mNAV the market will rate it as it sees fit"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:30Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"There it is: $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC now available on @RobinhoodApp This is HUGE"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-03T17:28Z 29.1K followers, 8289 engagements
"$ASST @BenWerkman 🔥😂"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-06T13:15Z 29.1K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Agreed @TickerSymbolYOU. The $NVDA $CSCO comparison is not remotely valid. Image Credit: @Speculator_io"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-08T11:28Z 29.1K followers, 7115 engagements
"Well implied volatility reflects market sentiment by measuring expected future price movement amplitude which indicates the market's expectations. That's why my charts focus on "Signal v Amplitude" with BTC MSTR. I've been proving pretty decisively that sentiment moves markets so not only is IV sentiment it's literally sentiment about market sentiment"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-08T12:05Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Kerrisdale literally copied their $MSTR short and distort report from early last year and applied it to $BMNR. I am not an $ETH bull but I hope that they get lit up on this trade and @fundstrat Granny Shots all over them"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-08T22:58Z 29.1K followers, 6302 engagements
"How I'm looking at this $BTC $MSTR price action knowing full well market players are trying to prevent a breakout"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-10T00:26Z 29.1K followers, 10.5K engagements
"Insiders knew Tariff Friday was coming and lined up positions to profit. Someone always knows so I bought $BTC $IBIT and will buy more if we go lower. NFA I just want to make sure that I am heavily positioned when the move happens"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-11T02:47Z 29.1K followers, 4859 engagements
"I've got to agree here this is still a hit job but the fact that I've either seen heard or read about a "bubble" - every single day - for the last two months means markets were definitely looking for a reason any reason to overreact. They got it"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-11T03:15Z 29.1K followers, 5956 engagements
"$MSTR: Good Morning everyone there's no Tariffs on Dots"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-12T12:54Z 29.1K followers, 29.9K engagements
"Sweeping some cash into $IAU & other 'precious metals' ETF's has turned out to be one of my smartest moves in the last year. Who would have thought ()/"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-14T10:57Z 29.1K followers, 2291 engagements
"$IREN: I'm old enough to remember when I was mocked calling for $XXX and then $XXX $IREN targets in May/July LAST year. Now so many are saying the same thing"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-14T19:39Z 29.1K followers, 6528 engagements
"Whether $MSTR $MTPLF or another BTC Treasury Company mNAV = Market Sentiment. The Market will rate it as it sees fit. All equity "multiples" are sentiment driven. BTC Equities are a new model and the market what's to see "what's next". This to me represents Phase X of the model"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-15T20:14Z 29.1K followers, 27K engagements
"Just because @saylor was in Austin it doesn't mean he was on JRE. That said this would be huge for $BTC $MSTR if he ends up on JRE"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T13:02Z 29.1K followers, 17K engagements
"I have been talking about the decreased volatility on $BTC (as a result of $IBIT asset maturity and increasing MCap) for a few months now. As the volatility decreases on $BTC what do you think happens to the volatility profile of $MSTR. @saylor can't control market dynamics or mNAV and it's STILL not because of the ATM so everyone relax"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T18:23Z 29.1K followers, 36.3K engagements
"I also ran this $MSTR variance analysis with the same level of rigor along a shorter timeframe going back to 12-2024. In this model I included options open interest gamma exposure and put call ratios. These attributes (in their aggregate) might help explain XX% of $MSTR price action over the period"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T20:52Z 29.1K followers, 6717 engagements
"Homoskedasticity means: The model is equally good or bad at modeling across scenarios. Heteroskedasticity means: The model's accuracy will change depending on the situation. We want heterosked we don't want to see homosked because the "spread" of errors will change. The lack of homoskedasticity in the model actually makes sense because MSTR becomes more volatile and should be less predictable during extreme market conditions. So this model will have varying levels of precision"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T22:28Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@NathanpartPrice Zoom in on the image and focus on this box. I did an analysis to see what has impacted $MSTR price these are the factors it's not the ATM. Anyone that says it is doesn't know what they are talking about"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-16T22:55Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@MHCanes18 @saylor That's not how volatility or implied volatility works. The market creates those dynamics not Saylor"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T01:09Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"With the Regional Bank issues we're seeing I'm bringing up this @FabiusMercurius post from way back that discusses the CRE (Commercial Real Estate) issue. Since C0v1d ended there are many office buildings sitting empty despite the heavy push to get people back in office. It's Small Regional Banks that are on the hook for much of this debt. Interest rates are still high and loan defaults are increasing. What if current market activity is a "front running" of a Fed pivot to QE from QT because the 2023 banking crisis never fully resolved. Everyone's fixated on an A.I. Bubble but what if it's an"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T04:03Z 29.1K followers, 8123 engagements
"So crack it (you can't) and then announce to the world that you are a thief what you stole where you stole it from and how you stole it. @MartinShkreli is a smart one"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-18T23:27Z 29.1K followers, 4317 engagements
"$SMLR $ASST: Watch @natbrunell sit down with Matt Cole & Eric Semler to walk through the acquisition of Semler Scientific by @strive. A must watch:"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-09-23T17:10Z 29.1K followers, 14.2K engagements
"$MSTR $MTPLF: Apparently in addition to "it's not the ATM" I'll have to add "it's not the MSW" to my FUD busting repertoire. @DylanLeClair_ already gave a great answer I'll provide some additional context here:"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-07T21:50Z 29.1K followers, 18.9K engagements
"$MTPLF: Another pause for @Metaplanet_JP and even though we're in Q4 I don't think this will have material impact on share price. Sentiment and Liquidity will"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-10T14:48Z 29.1K followers, 3180 engagements
"Exactly. Whether its $MSTR $MTPLF or another BTC Treasury Company mNAV = Market Sentiment. This was a fundamental misunderstanding in this space that is being rectified"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-17T18:03Z 29.1K followers, 12K engagements
"Hey @grok this is "theoretically" the case and (speaking in very general terms) most projections about quantum computers are based off of systems that have been used to factor XX and XX or perform calculations that can essentially be done with a pen & paper. This says nothing about the many practical and also physical limitations that have to be contended with to build a QC with millions of QBits"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-19T00:04Z 29.1K followers, XXX engagements
"This "cycle" is actually different"
X Link @Adrian_R_Morris 2025-10-19T03:07Z 29.1K followers, 6564 engagements
/creator/twitter::99328846/posts