[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@orrdavid](/creator/twitter/orrdavid) "Interview with HIkari Tsushin's CEO by @Jake___Barfield:"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1944252905185587558) 2025-07-13 04:29:49 UTC 19.8K followers, 11.5K engagements "I'm about an hour or maybe a couple days from calling the top. You have the charlatans on here pumping way too many stocks at once the money gets spread thin game over soon after that. Play stupid games win stupid prizes just like always"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947647925103829295) 2025-07-22 13:20:25 UTC 19.8K followers, 16.3K engagements "@Chris31712750 Yep he's acting like a Berkshire that way too. A couple friends have wanted to buy shares but can't given Japan's XXX share minimum. Kinda sucks"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1802706131720020379) 2024-06-17 14:13:29 UTC 19.7K followers, XXX engagements "This guy Pythia genuinely knows nothing about investing strategy. Not the very basics. Risking his XX% drawdown on a single biotech bet shows that clearly. He has nothing of value. It's just snark and dishonesty. I deliberately alienate all the charlatans like him on here"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947860456007434700) 2025-07-23 03:24:56 UTC 19.8K followers, 12.6K engagements "Yasuda itself no longer exists as a distinct publicly traded entity but its legacy remains through its successor companies notably Mizuho Financial Group and Sompo Holdings"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1915992990721380353) 2025-04-26 04:55:01 UTC 19.7K followers, 2616 engagements "It's good to take XXX% down days seriously not bad. They will of course happen as a single manager but you need to listen to your gut if something is truly wrong or not with your portfolio on those days. Mostly the answer is no. But if you start getting a few days like that the answer is yes"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947495132917600508) 2025-07-22 03:13:17 UTC 19.7K followers, XXX engagements "I have a XX% position in Hikari Tsushin $9435 today but I swear it's not big enough. If this was a US stock - so that I understood it better - I'd probably be at 20%"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1827487768316145833) 2024-08-24 23:26:51 UTC 19.8K followers, 48.5K engagements "Did you research what happens when a fund has a declining shareholder base/size like $ARKK She went from having say $15+ billion of AUM from true believers to half that even in a bull market. Or another caveat in real terms it was almost a third Very small sample size of funds/people to study. A few famous investors from the 60s who disappeared"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1946125293129015780) 2025-07-18 08:30:01 UTC 19.6K followers, XXX engagements "My weak read between the lines take on the current "Cambodia" + Thailand conflict: China has firm control of Cambodia. Thailand is in trade talks with the USA. The two things are related"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948330534838673869) 2025-07-24 10:32:52 UTC 19.8K followers, 5606 engagements "@Lordvultures Well it's super levered crappy loans. If the loans perform badly the short wins even if OXLC gets to keep selling new shares to dividend investors"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948224483011256410) 2025-07-24 03:31:27 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "This is the most bullish thing I've ever seen for Chinese ADRs. So they can actually pay out the money it seems. Anyone others to try gambling on"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1808557039641133437) 2024-07-03 17:42:54 UTC 19.7K followers, 88.8K engagements "I'm very much an investor first trader second. Though I am definitely a trader as well. Key variables drive stocks. Not extra information. That still makes someone an investor. I've noticed the stocks that Hempton really nails it's always that he got the simple key variable right. The best example is how well he understood the addictive properties of nicotine (and thanks for explaining that one to me sir)"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947824533005811861) 2025-07-23 01:02:12 UTC 19.8K followers, 8327 engagements "@SowingAlphaSeed One thing: I don't consider myself a particularly great accountant but I do understand the lines etc. I don't think you need advanced accounting knowledge to do well at investing. Usually the stated numbers are true and simple or maybe you adjust for one or two items"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948207516330111203) 2025-07-24 02:24:02 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "Cluseau is a complete joke of an investor. Anyone who takes his ideas seriously deserves to get burned"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947647030031225244) 2025-07-22 13:16:52 UTC 19.8K followers, 43.2K engagements "$QAI a "multi-strategy" ETF has zero real return in ten years and has a XX% drawdown. $XXX million AUM somehow. People must be hungry for alt publicly listed investments"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1941054243693383729) 2025-07-04 08:39:29 UTC 19.8K followers, 3216 engagements "This point is kind of true. When looking for investments I check valuation and the trend in earnings. Once that seems reasonable and once it seems I can understand the business I zoom out and ask "What is the key variable that is really driving the stock" I make an educated guess on what that variable is. And then I make a guess for what the answer is looking out 3+ years. After that I block nearly everything else out. I don't care at all about consensus or expert opinion. I just follow up and see if my key variable seems to be on track or not in the operating results. If they go the wrong"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947823771378979237) 2025-07-23 00:59:10 UTC 19.8K followers, 48.5K engagements "Investors buy and sell on fundamentals (cash flows return on capital debt etc) and valuations. This can be done at the individual company level sector level country level etc. For example "Buy Japanese net cash companies because corporate governance reform will improve return on capital" is an investing decision not a trade. Another example "Stocks in Turkey trading for X times earnings is obviously too cheap" is an investing decision. Another "Hikari Tsushin management are killer capital allocators" is an investing decision - fundamentals drive it. Another "Levered very high yield debt is a"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948723996671050118) 2025-07-25 12:36:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 5399 engagements "Also these factors will have violent moves down sometimes too. Maybe this post hits the current top even. But who cares if you "miss it" on the short side. This is a damn casino. You have fundamentals on your side sure. But the bulls have asymmetry on theirs"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1945664355082895573) 2025-07-17 01:58:25 UTC 19.7K followers, 2329 engagements "Why shouldn't I be long quite a bit of Mexican pesos"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1914509803080311150) 2025-04-22 02:41:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 5480 engagements "$MSTR's chart is so bullish particularly with its extreme strength through April vs it's normal beta. I don't have on crypto related shorts. It seems like one of a few key factors to avoid. Others to avoid: innovation or "innovation" electricity generation space rare earth metals modern military weapons like drones anything AI"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1945662558473756687) 2025-07-17 01:51:17 UTC 19.8K followers, 5184 engagements "@Divergent7651 I read everything I could find on Druck for months. ChatGPT o3 should be able to dig up most of it concisely today"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948225065755304099) 2025-07-24 03:33:46 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "The LA fire has potential to be an extreme outlier event if winds pick up and blow the wrong way from here it seems almost inevitable the entire city could burn down. If so what's the play Long builders and building suppliers generally Anything else Any LA shorts"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1877423824297242722) 2025-01-09 18:34:55 UTC 19.8K followers, 71K engagements "Hikari Tsushin $9435 reports net "unusual" gains year after year. I don't think I've ever seen a company do that before. It's like the complete inversion of most shitcos"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1827114063710572866) 2024-08-23 22:41:53 UTC 19.7K followers, 6170 engagements "@JackFarley96 Many fake investors -people who don't really know anything about interesting- were Carvana guys after 2022. They'll all fail in the end"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1946378913665692068) 2025-07-19 01:17:49 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "There's too much celebration of long only very concentrated investors from XX years ago. First of all it's such a small sample of guys and they had such a small sample of bets who really knows what the edge was. Second in the last XX years where are all the concentrated long only that killed the market They hardly even exist The ones I know of today "doing well" over the last XX years are a complete joke"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947503287839961112) 2025-07-22 03:45:41 UTC 19.8K followers, 9910 engagements "Compare the websites of Cushman & Wakefield $CWK and DRAFT $5070 That's pretty much my whole thesis for being long DRAFT a tiny but fast growing microcap"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1941657037685022884) 2025-07-06 00:34:46 UTC 19.8K followers, 5685 engagements "This is Premium Water Holdings Inc. $2588. They sell mineral water under the Premium Water brand. Talk about a low IQ business model. Yet it works And I'm too stupid to buy it I find the whole thing a little too shocking. I mean I should get long"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1884678645815664978) 2025-01-29 19:02:59 UTC 19.7K followers, 23.8K engagements "$9435 Hikari Tsushin summary. Wonder how much AI can even improve from here. this is excellent"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1922889861888921735) 2025-05-15 05:40:43 UTC 19.8K followers, 6454 engagements "$ARKK assets under management: $X billion. $ARKK average daily volume: $XXX million. When X% of shares turnover daily nobody believes"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1946032552315412695) 2025-07-18 02:21:30 UTC 19.6K followers, 6228 engagements "Not a chart of a healthy market. $ARKK So tempting here. but I just can't do it yet no real strong confirmation"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947323751911297032) 2025-07-21 15:52:16 UTC 19.8K followers, 2720 engagements "@AtsuroTsujino I hope he's setting it up so everyone wins except China in the end"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947909433973215741) 2025-07-23 06:39:34 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "I didn't realize Hankyu Hanshin $9042 (I'm long) owns a stake in the Osaka airports:"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1941355569388105856) 2025-07-05 04:36:51 UTC 19.8K followers, 5445 engagements "@ChangYeeFong77 Yamato has a special place in my heart from StarCraft"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947210258121953380) 2025-07-21 08:21:17 UTC 19.6K followers, XX engagements "@daniel3point0 As always I cannot comment about any specific ETF. I still think Thai stocks aren't cheap enough to be that interesting"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948554149270094045) 2025-07-25 01:21:26 UTC 19.8K followers, XX engagements "Very tempting to short the crowded short factor here . very toppy signs under the surface for this speculative rally. It was a pretty crazy one. $ARKK almost up XXX% off the April low. Kudos to the shorts who did well through this"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1945888863538540555) 2025-07-17 16:50:32 UTC 19.8K followers, 7918 engagements "Shocking just how cheap Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. $8306 was in 2022. Less than 7x earnings. Never saw anyone talk about it. Still seems maybe cheap today now that I'm studying the quality of prime brokers and what's going on under the surface more. Them and $MS seem great"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948630711080190292) 2025-07-25 06:25:39 UTC 19.8K followers, 4116 engagements "$WISE.L probably does XXX million net income in 2024 vs X billion market cap. Seems cheap. Counter argument is volume per customer is a drag. Counter argument to that is Europe is not doing well right now yet they're still growing. What happens when Europe's economy turns"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1790340536424907182) 2024-05-14 11:17:01 UTC 19.8K followers, 10.8K engagements "Another funny thing about the world of finance: When it's the "wrong" charlatan account - like say Will Meade remember him - these same finance bros do see the ethical problem. But when it's their buddy doing it I guess it's all the sudden fine. Says a lot about them"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947661306984820980) 2025-07-22 14:13:36 UTC 19.8K followers, 3932 engagements "On longs I don't even fade consensus. It's more than I notice consensus longs mostly have stupid valuations and I don't buy them on that basis. That's investor behavior not trader"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947826737213305039) 2025-07-23 01:10:57 UTC 19.8K followers, 4490 engagements "$NWLI Talking about strategic alternatives - ie selling their company finally. I mentioned this catalyst was likely a letter a couple years ago because Moody Senior is XX years old plus they recently sold $ANAT"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1658608660078108673) 2023-05-16 23:01:34 UTC 19.7K followers, 7143 engagements "Hikari Tsushin $9435 is run by an allocator that doubles book/share every 3-4 years. Runs XXX% leverage in a ZIRP environment. Website gives Teledyne or Berkshire vibes. Trades for 1.5x book / 10x earnings"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1802178070092148749) 2024-06-16 03:15:09 UTC 19.7K followers, 99.1K engagements "@svrnco @compound248 What's especially not rational: Not even being able to read what someone actually wrote - my post is still up he can still do this today even now - and instead going with the hive mind's worst interpretation of a single post"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948182919543169280) 2025-07-24 00:46:18 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "$DUOL also 20x revenue here. Interesting it already gave back some of the gain while $ARKK-like stocks kept going up. But I guess $DUOL just overshot the revenue multiple. seems almost like a long trade here but not my game"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947205392460853272) 2025-07-21 08:01:57 UTC 19.8K followers, 2203 engagements "Pretty cool that ChatGPT gets this right:"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1945761533130351013) 2025-07-17 08:24:34 UTC 19.8K followers, 3005 engagements "I've never felt more bearish S&P XXX global monopoly type companies. Trump's new trade deal is structured so that only goods are counted. Services - or "services" monopoly middleman stuff like $V - are not. Easiest solution for Europe: Allow in more of the physical world that the USA produces (agriculture is really low hanging fruit) retaliate against global mega-monopolies. Maybe those aren't such bad policies"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1907734428723589589) 2025-04-03 09:58:26 UTC 19.7K followers, 39.9K engagements "$WISE I've still been long for tax reasons. Airwallex is their bigger threat in my opinion not Revolut. But the threat doesn't seem so serious. The other players seem like dinosaurs to me. The key question someone should ask is "Who are the lowest cost providers" I keep seeing smart investors lured into $WISE competitors and man those companies are all going to get slaughtered. I can't tell if I should be buying more $WISE even. I've really only stayed long for the tax reasons . but when I identify a likely great low-cost company loved by its customers that has network advantages perhaps I"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1931244967772758025) 2025-06-07 07:00:55 UTC 19.8K followers, 12.7K engagements "@SowingAlphaSeed @PythiaR @John_Hempton This is the kind of people you're dealing with though. The idiot hive mind of"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947815055313277364) 2025-07-23 00:24:32 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "Quite the gap down in Japan today. Last time this happened we had an extreme follow through the next day. It's always hard to tell with this kind of stuff but the big difference this time is that yen positioning didn't start crowded short and was even positioned long"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1906596247424684271) 2025-03-31 06:35:42 UTC 19.8K followers, 4222 engagements "Gives a good idea of just how epic China's real estate bubble is. It's the most insane physical (not just spreadsheet) real estate overproduction/bubble in human history. Also a great example of the futility of "green" politics"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947252609577812343) 2025-07-21 11:09:34 UTC 19.8K followers, 8995 engagements "I just went through all of these public equities owned by Hikari Tsushin $9435. In the second image many of the companies they own a large % of are tiny. Lots of this stuff has a strong balance sheet. Just consistently profitable stuff some with improving earnings"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1826094210421858386) 2024-08-21 03:09:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 8533 engagements "@Premski_SGP @glbeaty For instance I thought Lumen was a boring insolvent telecom company. But the retail madness prevailed on that one. Sometimes it's hard to predict where the retail money goes. The more predictable that becomes the easier short selling becomes"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947120982805938323) 2025-07-21 02:26:32 UTC 19.6K followers, XX engagements "Those core Sanseito policy goals all seem good. Even though the media coordinated in attacking them and ChatGPT seems to be eating it up. Who cares if some of its members said racist things sometimes that's the noise the above is the signal"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1947064288608473451) 2025-07-20 22:41:15 UTC 19.7K followers, 3333 engagements "I studied stocks for XX hours straight yesterday got X hours of sleep and just woke up to study them for another XX hours today. If you don't genuinely love doing this all the time it sure seems hard to compete"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1822208868132237415) 2024-08-10 09:50:23 UTC 19.8K followers, 60.4K engagements "@ASchulz888 Another thought just came to mind: While higher leverage strategies are flourishing in the land of podshops markets are getting increasingly punishing to levered investors compared to the past. A structural argument against leverage"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1948289004270731508) 2025-07-24 07:47:50 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements "One of the hardest or easiest parts of short selling - depending on the difficulty you choose - is just deciding which factors to avoid altogether. At any moment you can start being honest with yourself about "These factors are awful to be short" and simply stop shorting them"  [@orrdavid](/creator/x/orrdavid) on [X](/post/tweet/1945664876019659086) 2025-07-17 02:00:29 UTC 19.7K followers, 2037 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@orrdavid
"Interview with HIkari Tsushin's CEO by @Jake___Barfield:"
@orrdavid on X 2025-07-13 04:29:49 UTC 19.8K followers, 11.5K engagements
"I'm about an hour or maybe a couple days from calling the top. You have the charlatans on here pumping way too many stocks at once the money gets spread thin game over soon after that. Play stupid games win stupid prizes just like always" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-22 13:20:25 UTC 19.8K followers, 16.3K engagements
"@Chris31712750 Yep he's acting like a Berkshire that way too. A couple friends have wanted to buy shares but can't given Japan's XXX share minimum. Kinda sucks" @orrdavid on X 2024-06-17 14:13:29 UTC 19.7K followers, XXX engagements
"This guy Pythia genuinely knows nothing about investing strategy. Not the very basics. Risking his XX% drawdown on a single biotech bet shows that clearly. He has nothing of value. It's just snark and dishonesty. I deliberately alienate all the charlatans like him on here" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 03:24:56 UTC 19.8K followers, 12.6K engagements
"Yasuda itself no longer exists as a distinct publicly traded entity but its legacy remains through its successor companies notably Mizuho Financial Group and Sompo Holdings" @orrdavid on X 2025-04-26 04:55:01 UTC 19.7K followers, 2616 engagements
"It's good to take XXX% down days seriously not bad. They will of course happen as a single manager but you need to listen to your gut if something is truly wrong or not with your portfolio on those days. Mostly the answer is no. But if you start getting a few days like that the answer is yes" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-22 03:13:17 UTC 19.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I have a XX% position in Hikari Tsushin $9435 today but I swear it's not big enough. If this was a US stock - so that I understood it better - I'd probably be at 20%" @orrdavid on X 2024-08-24 23:26:51 UTC 19.8K followers, 48.5K engagements
"Did you research what happens when a fund has a declining shareholder base/size like $ARKK She went from having say $15+ billion of AUM from true believers to half that even in a bull market. Or another caveat in real terms it was almost a third Very small sample size of funds/people to study. A few famous investors from the 60s who disappeared" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-18 08:30:01 UTC 19.6K followers, XXX engagements
"My weak read between the lines take on the current "Cambodia" + Thailand conflict: China has firm control of Cambodia. Thailand is in trade talks with the USA. The two things are related" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 10:32:52 UTC 19.8K followers, 5606 engagements
"@Lordvultures Well it's super levered crappy loans. If the loans perform badly the short wins even if OXLC gets to keep selling new shares to dividend investors" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 03:31:27 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"This is the most bullish thing I've ever seen for Chinese ADRs. So they can actually pay out the money it seems. Anyone others to try gambling on" @orrdavid on X 2024-07-03 17:42:54 UTC 19.7K followers, 88.8K engagements
"I'm very much an investor first trader second. Though I am definitely a trader as well. Key variables drive stocks. Not extra information. That still makes someone an investor. I've noticed the stocks that Hempton really nails it's always that he got the simple key variable right. The best example is how well he understood the addictive properties of nicotine (and thanks for explaining that one to me sir)" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 01:02:12 UTC 19.8K followers, 8327 engagements
"@SowingAlphaSeed One thing: I don't consider myself a particularly great accountant but I do understand the lines etc. I don't think you need advanced accounting knowledge to do well at investing. Usually the stated numbers are true and simple or maybe you adjust for one or two items" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 02:24:02 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"Cluseau is a complete joke of an investor. Anyone who takes his ideas seriously deserves to get burned" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-22 13:16:52 UTC 19.8K followers, 43.2K engagements
"$QAI a "multi-strategy" ETF has zero real return in ten years and has a XX% drawdown. $XXX million AUM somehow. People must be hungry for alt publicly listed investments" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-04 08:39:29 UTC 19.8K followers, 3216 engagements
"This point is kind of true. When looking for investments I check valuation and the trend in earnings. Once that seems reasonable and once it seems I can understand the business I zoom out and ask "What is the key variable that is really driving the stock" I make an educated guess on what that variable is. And then I make a guess for what the answer is looking out 3+ years. After that I block nearly everything else out. I don't care at all about consensus or expert opinion. I just follow up and see if my key variable seems to be on track or not in the operating results. If they go the wrong" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 00:59:10 UTC 19.8K followers, 48.5K engagements
"Investors buy and sell on fundamentals (cash flows return on capital debt etc) and valuations. This can be done at the individual company level sector level country level etc. For example "Buy Japanese net cash companies because corporate governance reform will improve return on capital" is an investing decision not a trade. Another example "Stocks in Turkey trading for X times earnings is obviously too cheap" is an investing decision. Another "Hikari Tsushin management are killer capital allocators" is an investing decision - fundamentals drive it. Another "Levered very high yield debt is a" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-25 12:36:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 5399 engagements
"Also these factors will have violent moves down sometimes too. Maybe this post hits the current top even. But who cares if you "miss it" on the short side. This is a damn casino. You have fundamentals on your side sure. But the bulls have asymmetry on theirs" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-17 01:58:25 UTC 19.7K followers, 2329 engagements
"Why shouldn't I be long quite a bit of Mexican pesos" @orrdavid on X 2025-04-22 02:41:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 5480 engagements
"$MSTR's chart is so bullish particularly with its extreme strength through April vs it's normal beta. I don't have on crypto related shorts. It seems like one of a few key factors to avoid. Others to avoid: innovation or "innovation" electricity generation space rare earth metals modern military weapons like drones anything AI" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-17 01:51:17 UTC 19.8K followers, 5184 engagements
"@Divergent7651 I read everything I could find on Druck for months. ChatGPT o3 should be able to dig up most of it concisely today" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 03:33:46 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"The LA fire has potential to be an extreme outlier event if winds pick up and blow the wrong way from here it seems almost inevitable the entire city could burn down. If so what's the play Long builders and building suppliers generally Anything else Any LA shorts" @orrdavid on X 2025-01-09 18:34:55 UTC 19.8K followers, 71K engagements
"Hikari Tsushin $9435 reports net "unusual" gains year after year. I don't think I've ever seen a company do that before. It's like the complete inversion of most shitcos" @orrdavid on X 2024-08-23 22:41:53 UTC 19.7K followers, 6170 engagements
"@JackFarley96 Many fake investors -people who don't really know anything about interesting- were Carvana guys after 2022. They'll all fail in the end" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-19 01:17:49 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"There's too much celebration of long only very concentrated investors from XX years ago. First of all it's such a small sample of guys and they had such a small sample of bets who really knows what the edge was. Second in the last XX years where are all the concentrated long only that killed the market They hardly even exist The ones I know of today "doing well" over the last XX years are a complete joke" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-22 03:45:41 UTC 19.8K followers, 9910 engagements
"Compare the websites of Cushman & Wakefield $CWK and DRAFT $5070 That's pretty much my whole thesis for being long DRAFT a tiny but fast growing microcap" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-06 00:34:46 UTC 19.8K followers, 5685 engagements
"This is Premium Water Holdings Inc. $2588. They sell mineral water under the Premium Water brand. Talk about a low IQ business model. Yet it works And I'm too stupid to buy it I find the whole thing a little too shocking. I mean I should get long" @orrdavid on X 2025-01-29 19:02:59 UTC 19.7K followers, 23.8K engagements
"$9435 Hikari Tsushin summary. Wonder how much AI can even improve from here. this is excellent" @orrdavid on X 2025-05-15 05:40:43 UTC 19.8K followers, 6454 engagements
"$ARKK assets under management: $X billion. $ARKK average daily volume: $XXX million. When X% of shares turnover daily nobody believes" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-18 02:21:30 UTC 19.6K followers, 6228 engagements
"Not a chart of a healthy market. $ARKK So tempting here. but I just can't do it yet no real strong confirmation" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-21 15:52:16 UTC 19.8K followers, 2720 engagements
"@AtsuroTsujino I hope he's setting it up so everyone wins except China in the end" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 06:39:34 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"I didn't realize Hankyu Hanshin $9042 (I'm long) owns a stake in the Osaka airports:" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-05 04:36:51 UTC 19.8K followers, 5445 engagements
"@ChangYeeFong77 Yamato has a special place in my heart from StarCraft" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-21 08:21:17 UTC 19.6K followers, XX engagements
"@daniel3point0 As always I cannot comment about any specific ETF. I still think Thai stocks aren't cheap enough to be that interesting" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-25 01:21:26 UTC 19.8K followers, XX engagements
"Very tempting to short the crowded short factor here . very toppy signs under the surface for this speculative rally. It was a pretty crazy one. $ARKK almost up XXX% off the April low. Kudos to the shorts who did well through this" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-17 16:50:32 UTC 19.8K followers, 7918 engagements
"Shocking just how cheap Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. $8306 was in 2022. Less than 7x earnings. Never saw anyone talk about it. Still seems maybe cheap today now that I'm studying the quality of prime brokers and what's going on under the surface more. Them and $MS seem great" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-25 06:25:39 UTC 19.8K followers, 4116 engagements
"$WISE.L probably does XXX million net income in 2024 vs X billion market cap. Seems cheap. Counter argument is volume per customer is a drag. Counter argument to that is Europe is not doing well right now yet they're still growing. What happens when Europe's economy turns" @orrdavid on X 2024-05-14 11:17:01 UTC 19.8K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Another funny thing about the world of finance: When it's the "wrong" charlatan account - like say Will Meade remember him - these same finance bros do see the ethical problem. But when it's their buddy doing it I guess it's all the sudden fine. Says a lot about them" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-22 14:13:36 UTC 19.8K followers, 3932 engagements
"On longs I don't even fade consensus. It's more than I notice consensus longs mostly have stupid valuations and I don't buy them on that basis. That's investor behavior not trader" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 01:10:57 UTC 19.8K followers, 4490 engagements
"$NWLI Talking about strategic alternatives - ie selling their company finally. I mentioned this catalyst was likely a letter a couple years ago because Moody Senior is XX years old plus they recently sold $ANAT" @orrdavid on X 2023-05-16 23:01:34 UTC 19.7K followers, 7143 engagements
"Hikari Tsushin $9435 is run by an allocator that doubles book/share every 3-4 years. Runs XXX% leverage in a ZIRP environment. Website gives Teledyne or Berkshire vibes. Trades for 1.5x book / 10x earnings" @orrdavid on X 2024-06-16 03:15:09 UTC 19.7K followers, 99.1K engagements
"@svrnco @compound248 What's especially not rational: Not even being able to read what someone actually wrote - my post is still up he can still do this today even now - and instead going with the hive mind's worst interpretation of a single post" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 00:46:18 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"$DUOL also 20x revenue here. Interesting it already gave back some of the gain while $ARKK-like stocks kept going up. But I guess $DUOL just overshot the revenue multiple. seems almost like a long trade here but not my game" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-21 08:01:57 UTC 19.8K followers, 2203 engagements
"Pretty cool that ChatGPT gets this right:" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-17 08:24:34 UTC 19.8K followers, 3005 engagements
"I've never felt more bearish S&P XXX global monopoly type companies. Trump's new trade deal is structured so that only goods are counted. Services - or "services" monopoly middleman stuff like $V - are not. Easiest solution for Europe: Allow in more of the physical world that the USA produces (agriculture is really low hanging fruit) retaliate against global mega-monopolies. Maybe those aren't such bad policies" @orrdavid on X 2025-04-03 09:58:26 UTC 19.7K followers, 39.9K engagements
"$WISE I've still been long for tax reasons. Airwallex is their bigger threat in my opinion not Revolut. But the threat doesn't seem so serious. The other players seem like dinosaurs to me. The key question someone should ask is "Who are the lowest cost providers" I keep seeing smart investors lured into $WISE competitors and man those companies are all going to get slaughtered. I can't tell if I should be buying more $WISE even. I've really only stayed long for the tax reasons . but when I identify a likely great low-cost company loved by its customers that has network advantages perhaps I" @orrdavid on X 2025-06-07 07:00:55 UTC 19.8K followers, 12.7K engagements
"@SowingAlphaSeed @PythiaR @John_Hempton This is the kind of people you're dealing with though. The idiot hive mind of" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-23 00:24:32 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"Quite the gap down in Japan today. Last time this happened we had an extreme follow through the next day. It's always hard to tell with this kind of stuff but the big difference this time is that yen positioning didn't start crowded short and was even positioned long" @orrdavid on X 2025-03-31 06:35:42 UTC 19.8K followers, 4222 engagements
"Gives a good idea of just how epic China's real estate bubble is. It's the most insane physical (not just spreadsheet) real estate overproduction/bubble in human history. Also a great example of the futility of "green" politics" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-21 11:09:34 UTC 19.8K followers, 8995 engagements
"I just went through all of these public equities owned by Hikari Tsushin $9435. In the second image many of the companies they own a large % of are tiny. Lots of this stuff has a strong balance sheet. Just consistently profitable stuff some with improving earnings" @orrdavid on X 2024-08-21 03:09:21 UTC 19.8K followers, 8533 engagements
"@Premski_SGP @glbeaty For instance I thought Lumen was a boring insolvent telecom company. But the retail madness prevailed on that one. Sometimes it's hard to predict where the retail money goes. The more predictable that becomes the easier short selling becomes" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-21 02:26:32 UTC 19.6K followers, XX engagements
"Those core Sanseito policy goals all seem good. Even though the media coordinated in attacking them and ChatGPT seems to be eating it up. Who cares if some of its members said racist things sometimes that's the noise the above is the signal" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-20 22:41:15 UTC 19.7K followers, 3333 engagements
"I studied stocks for XX hours straight yesterday got X hours of sleep and just woke up to study them for another XX hours today. If you don't genuinely love doing this all the time it sure seems hard to compete" @orrdavid on X 2024-08-10 09:50:23 UTC 19.8K followers, 60.4K engagements
"@ASchulz888 Another thought just came to mind: While higher leverage strategies are flourishing in the land of podshops markets are getting increasingly punishing to levered investors compared to the past. A structural argument against leverage" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-24 07:47:50 UTC 19.8K followers, XXX engagements
"One of the hardest or easiest parts of short selling - depending on the difficulty you choose - is just deciding which factors to avoid altogether. At any moment you can start being honest with yourself about "These factors are awful to be short" and simply stop shorting them" @orrdavid on X 2025-07-17 02:00:29 UTC 19.7K followers, 2037 engagements