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[@Rory_Johnston](/creator/twitter/Rory_Johnston)
"🛢 OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢 📉💀 Crude prices fall the curve sinks deeper toward full contango and forward oversupply estimates grow while speculative selling pressure intensifies. Check out the summary below and the full report in the replies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979280082582568992) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T20:15Z 48.1K followers, 17.9K engagements


"@HedgeDirty Trying to imagine a Galts Gulch in which the denizens arent industrialists but rather attention brokers who just abandoned their primary feedstock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979581214085558288) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T16:11Z 48.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@Deathswap1 The US market will *always* be the path of least resistance that's why the US concentration exists in the first place. It would have also been easier to build the Trans Canada Railway (and TC Energy nat gas Mainline) through Chicagobut we did the harder more strategic thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1975940849969082743) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-08T15:06Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"Gold down in NVIDIA terms today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976317420429246954) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-09T16:02Z 48K followers, 6802 engagements


"FR I D A Y Y Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976636919082848344) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T13:12Z 48K followers, 12.5K engagements


"seeing gurus QTing some of this morning's crude carnage charts being like "I'm one of the few to have warned of this" "This" being what many have called **the most anticipated oil glut in history** C'mon folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976694112104448057) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T16:59Z 48.1K followers, 3556 engagements


"Important to remember when people say that crude in the $50s (or lower) isn't sustainable because that's below the cost of say US production that that's the point. Market needs shale to contract"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976725318611386416) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T19:03Z 48K followers, 24.7K engagements


"Jr Intern watching the crude charts today like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976736314209997041) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T19:47Z 48.1K followers, 3525 engagements


"🛢 OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢 📉😱 Crude prices crash to fresh half-year lows and the crude curve is on the edge of outright contango as geopolitical risk wanes and China balks at immediately sopping up emerging supply surplus. (summary below full report in replies)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976741070341128614) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T20:06Z 48K followers, 19.7K engagements


"Well that was a day. Thanks for keeping it fun and informative everyone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976756396759855217) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T21:07Z 48K followers, 3743 engagements


"Lesson 1: Rare earths arent actually that rare. Whats rare is the tolerance of the pollution associated with their production and refining"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1977338441445822860) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-12T11:39Z 48K followers, 66.4K engagements


"People gonna need to start being far more specific with their calls Is the 2026 oil glut not going to happen because: A) demand will grow us out of it B) non-opec output (mostly US) is going to decline faster than expected C) OPEC gonna blink reverse some recent hikes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978496208390815853) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-15T16:20Z 48K followers, 7314 engagements


"crude price floor at $XX. .right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978535263409230013) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-15T18:55Z 48.1K followers, 10.9K engagements


"Headline quote in the Financial Times calling Keystone XL Canadas zombie pipeline on my birthday. Dreams really do come true guys. 🥳"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978811551218823599) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T13:13Z 48K followers, 6681 engagements


"What a tweet to see on the day you turn XX. Nice knowing yall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978823928970723832) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T14:02Z 48K followers, 11.9K engagements


"Canadian energy sector lunch and conversation with @cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie at the @CDHoweInstitute"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978863606121828704) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T16:40Z 48K followers, 2769 engagements


"@SuvyBob Absurd but true is where I like to keep my personal brand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978880099379257618) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T17:45Z 48K followers, XX engagements


"it's alarming how many people either can't or otherwise refuse to understand how commodity markets work. spoiler: the VAST majority of Canadian oil exports don't travel by tanker** they get to where they're going by pipe. **also there is no Canadian "tanker fleet""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978889596868997244) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T18:23Z 48K followers, 12.7K engagements


"@WarMonitor3 mmhmm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978892935119704368) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T18:36Z 48K followers, 1038 engagements


"As part of this new effort I get a fancy stylized author avatar on the Dispatchs website"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978894743858778599) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T18:44Z 48K followers, 5597 engagements


"@BlueFlameBlues you've had that profile pic for a while Paul and I hear the gas market ages you quick 😉👴🏻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978897505715720412) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T18:55Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"@lzab1453 this is how we send our crude to China with swagger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978899849924771887) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T19:04Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"@hallen_a ActuallyGreat birthday sir"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978905201990926782) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T19:25Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"@ShaleTier7 Hear me out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978916018157158609) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T20:08Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"@SenorPetroleum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978958524286714179) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T22:57Z 48K followers, XX engagements


"@BenniKim @thedispatch @RemindMe_OfThis The IEAs latest forecast includes an exceptionally large surplus in 2026 even larger than in 2020 unless something changes. Of course something most likely will change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979129583648583682) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T10:17Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"Curve ain't so smiley anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979190999525048654) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T14:21Z 48.1K followers, 1999 engagements


"Hey Schlumberger at what price does said rebalancing occur in 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979193112745410701) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T14:29Z 48.1K followers, 4722 engagements


"@Nunofb86 I think prices canindeed probably need tocontinue falling until either X. non-opec supply begins contracting in earnest (likely US) X. demand rebounds or most likely X. OPEC decides to reverse course"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979201465659871442) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:02Z 48K followers, XX engagements


"@sadandlonely_69 fair but Bayway doesn't import dilbit so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979209207141314723) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:33Z 48K followers, XX engagements


"@haroldgrosser72 . why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979215042793873655) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:56Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"@AnujPoddar18 alas gov't shutdown still means no CFTC data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979215157139050532) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:57Z 48K followers, XXX engagements


"This is a pretty terrible moment for commodities markets to be without CFTC Commitments of Traders data thanks to the shutdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979231092256149965) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T17:00Z 48.1K followers, 2207 engagements


"@RyanSte16360583 Encourage you to watch this segment because I explain exactly thatthey *dont* expect that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979316184836379027) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T22:38Z 48.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Petition to rename oil and gas either: Critical hydrocarbons Or Rare earth liquids Would get the people going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1914363445572419867) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-04-21T16:59Z 48.1K followers, 61K engagements


"🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Canadian Barrel Goes Further Global TMX has shifted Canadian crude flows west entrenched China as Canadas second-largest crude export market and rerouted flows away from recent growth markets like USGC refineries and re-exports. (Link to pull post below)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1961070169582621070) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-08-28T14:15Z 48.1K followers, 29.5K engagements


"🚨 WTI CRUDE IN THE $50s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976639229569667432) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T13:21Z 48.1K followers, 56.6K engagements


"perhaps I just haven't yet had enough coffee but I'm not seeing an obvious headline trigger for this morning's crude selloff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1976640106439332217) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-10T13:25Z 48.1K followers, 6649 engagements


"🎙 NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @crudechronicle about the historical oil market stretches that best rhyme with our current brouhaha and what labour market indicators are telling us about the US oil patch. It was DOPE 😉 link in reply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1977062253938491793) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-11T17:22Z 48.1K followers, 32.9K engagements


"🙌🏻 Cant discuss the IEAs astronomically large global oil market supply glut scenario forecast for 2026 without some aggressive hand-talking. X MMbpd implied surplus XXX BILLION barrel implied stock build. Check out my full @BNNBloomberg interview:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978505233970921664) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-15T16:56Z 48.1K followers, 13K engagements


"Brent crude curve as of a month ago week ago and today. Today is the yellow curve at the bottom. Sinking innit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978555575966281750) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-15T20:16Z 48.1K followers, 27.8K engagements


"🚨 Trying something new with the @TheDispatch publishing some **unpaywalled** oil thoughts for a more general audience. Before delving into the deeper debates I wanted to start with a primer on where oil markets stand today and how we got here. Read:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978870414949400611) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T17:07Z 48.1K followers, 30.7K engagements


"Sub-$61 Brent on my birthday You *really* shouldn't have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978890133827949007) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T18:25Z 48.1K followers, 18.9K engagements


"Brent crude getting awwwwfully close to prompt contango. Less than 20c/bbl to the BIG C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979143134496932337) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T11:11Z 48.1K followers, 8780 engagements


"@TedHall Deep-posting again on main are we"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979164447823249705) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T12:35Z 48.1K followers, XXX engagements


""supply and demand aren't really that important anymore" guy who who doesn't follow supply and demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979169746672103858) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T12:56Z 48.1K followers, 3540 engagements


"Say it with me now Friday gonna _____ Brent narrowly avoided the $50s this morning for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979170930023608341) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T13:01Z 48.1K followers, 4850 engagements


"crude down but gasoline cracks rallying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979187467786883167) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T14:07Z 48.1K followers, 9586 engagements


"Flat Brent crude prices (white) bouncing off the $60/bbl level this morning but prompt timespreads (blue) continue to weaken. Just more than a dime off prompt contango now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979190881707000309) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T14:20Z 48.1K followers, 3899 engagements


"*SAUDI ARABIA SEEKS 1-YEAR DELAY TO SHIPPING CARBON TAX DECISION *IMO NATIONS TO VOTE WHETHER TO DELAY SHIP-CARBON TAX DECISION *SHIPPING REGULATOR DELAYS DECISION ON EMISSIONS TAX BY ONE YEAR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979192716442378306) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T14:28Z 48.1K followers, 2850 engagements


"Toronto vibe check. 🍁🍂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979202461169492074) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:06Z 48.1K followers, 3626 engagements


"the IEA's current "OPEC+ holds steady" implied oil market surplus for next year is large enough that you could lose the entirety of Iran AND Venezuela (POOF) and you'd still have a decent-sized oversupply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979203447430824316) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:10Z 48.1K followers, 4530 engagements


"WTI the only remaining source of prompt timespread strength in the crude complex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979213125866992070) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T15:49Z 48.1K followers, 11.9K engagements


"Cushing ain't what it used to be but it'll be interesting to see how weak crude structure can get with Cushing tanks still this empty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979216913352761600) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T16:04Z 48.1K followers, 9335 engagements


"Brent crude currently heading it's lowest weekly price close since February 2021. Remember February 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979229173420790150) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T16:53Z 48.1K followers, 11.8K engagements


"Oil wont go negative again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979236871969386810) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T17:23Z 48.1K followers, 9557 engagements


"It won't because OPEC will step in first. The question remains at what price exactly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979237608304553999) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T17:26Z 48.1K followers, 2229 engagements


"hard to be super confident without CFTC data but ICE positioning data shows managed money position in Brent at its lowest level since Liberation Day selloff If WTI similarly short this will need to rationalize before we really truly begin to see crude prices durably pull back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979245233255657608) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T17:56Z 48.1K followers, 5092 engagements


"Also interesting to note that unlike Liberation Day which was largely driven by a reduction in gross length this episode is being equally driven by a build-up of speculative shorts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979250423753060714) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T18:17Z 48.1K followers, 2030 engagements


"stealth undetectable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979251107013484755) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T18:20Z 48.1K followers, 9121 engagements


"Every Friday I analyze developments in flat crude prices timespreads inventories refined products and positioning data as well as a taste of the themes Ive been thinking about or following closely. Subscribe and check it out:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979284451247915346) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T20:32Z 48.1K followers, 4147 engagements


"IEA oil head spooky summarized 👻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979554750157795370) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T14:26Z 48.1K followers, 32.7K engagements


"What is OPEC+s real pain threshold the crude price at which theyll either stop hikingor begin outright cuttingproduction Select the closest price to your OPEC+ pain point assumption:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979562124293849135) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T14:56Z 48.1K followers, 14.3K engagements


"Oh you must be new to the Collapsing Oil Price Emotions (COPE) cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979587577155096620) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T16:37Z 48.1K followers, 5512 engagements


"Is there a worse adoption pace comparison"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979598031814046048) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T17:18Z 48.1K followers, 5952 engagements


"People generally think that OPECs price pain point is either 1) higher than lower or 2) doesnt exist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979691904779555003) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-18T23:31Z 48.1K followers, 9838 engagements


"Ukraine helping with that OPEC quota slippage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979930870321467814) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-19T15:21Z 48.1K followers, 13.1K engagements


"Question for the people who think that OPEC doesnt care about prices. What was late-2022 through early-2025 about then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979962092426784931) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-19T17:25Z 48.1K followers, 5828 engagements


"@ArganeBleu And now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979963689621930079) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-19T17:31Z 48.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Full piece here: US and Canada weigh revival of zombie Keystone XL pipeline in trade talks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1978811786871595184) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-16T13:14Z 48.1K followers, 2584 engagements


"Really interesting Iranian shadow fleet details"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1979260149995835634) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-17T18:56Z 48.1K followers, 3839 engagements


"📅 Attention Ottawa Oil Watchers: I'll be in our nation's capital between October 27-29. If you're interested in talking oil politics or policy over a coffee or a drink drop me a line. My DMs are open or reply to any Commodity Context email"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1980287385049927938) [@Rory_Johnston](/creator/x/Rory_Johnston) 2025-10-20T14:57Z 48.1K followers, XX engagements