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[@effoff1988](/creator/twitter/effoff1988)
"While I expect OBAA to win a major category I am not expecting that to be supporting actor. Sean Penn has a horrible reputation X lead Oscars that aged like milk and a history of trash talking awards in general. I think Paul Mescal and Stellan Skarsgrd will be top2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1980317650183156060) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-20T16:58Z 5216 followers, 15.6K engagements


"@BrayFitzsimmons I think you are just missing the "del" from "del Toro". So on the OBAA page supporting actor is not in alphabetical order and on the Sinners page supporting actress is not alphabetical order. And if it was an alphabetical concept all categories would be in that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981803804569055526) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T19:23Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"Probably MARTY SUPREME it has been rumoured for a festival surprise for a while. ELLA MCCAY is my backup theory since the other options are presumed 2026 players (The Drama Mother Mary Klara & the Sun) or too mainstream for NYFF (The Housemaid Wicked Avatar Oh What Fun)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1974497001644466385) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-04T15:29Z 5212 followers, 17.7K engagements


"Are they though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979592937617977838) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-18T16:58Z 5212 followers, 214.2K engagements


"Colman Domingo is one of the most celebrated actors and fashion icons of our time Open the schools. Or Google"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1980357399937708541) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-20T19:36Z 5210 followers, 11.4K engagements


"Since HEDDA is not gunning for BP/BD and the BO factor was eliminated from its release plan this kind of critics consensus could be more than enough for its Oscar campaign that should focus on acting (Tessa Thompson Nina Hoss) and writing (Nia DaCosta in Adapted Script & Song)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981457653756023201) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-23T20:28Z 5212 followers, 1760 engagements


"@AKlay19 X. The film is strong enough to carry him into the top5 even with the whole I melted my Oscars because the Academy sucks background. X. Yes IMO this is the best of those X Penn performances so it would be hist most warranted Oscar. Low bar though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1980368048860327938) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-20T20:18Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"@DeviGanari @blewis1103 World of Reel also reported that based on test screenings Superman Fantastic Four : First Steps Hamnet Sinners A Complete Unknown were all going to be bad. They sure turned out just fine in the end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982134401828786258) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T17:17Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"The only Colleen Hoover premise that does not make me cringe is VERITY mostly because that is a rip off of a much better novel (Daphne Mauriers Rebecca). Rest are all XX shades level cringe to me. As in they thought they could get post-Oscar Mikey Madison for THIS below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982300573547237729) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T04:17Z 5216 followers, 2685 engagements


"(1/2) Truth is that actors like Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield are not really at risk in these situations since everyone on their set will make sure the beloved movie stars are not traumatised harmed inconvenienced in any way. This was also a brief fully clothed scene"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979535215459479600) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-18T13:09Z 5214 followers, 32.3K engagements


"Not sure why in 2025 some Austin Butler fans are review bombing FRANKENSTEIN on @metacritic thus prob on other platforms too but I know it is a bad look for their entire fandom. Butler & Jacob Elordi are both great actors committed to their craft. There is room for both ffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979793093005357310) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-19T06:13Z 5216 followers, 13.2K engagements


"Weapons/Amy Madigan is unlikely to be a proper priority for Warner Bros. when they have X major Best Picture contenders (Sinners OBAA) with several strong supporting actress campaigns already in the mix. I quite liked Weapons in general so I say this with love :"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981602415687172447) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T06:03Z 5213 followers, 6018 engagements


"@Fashion_Nexus @watsonperiodo Flaa also repeated the "Blake Lively tried to blackmail Taylor Swift" lie long after it was thoroughly debunked by the judge. She is a disgrace to journalism whose entire income is based on telling defamatory lies to her audience that is as unintelligent & hateful as she is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981643664104296514) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T08:47Z 5213 followers, XXX engagements


"@_Potter_Head_7_ @LeaveHeardAlone She was right. Ti West deserves flak for this bullshit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981644043894333674) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T08:48Z 5214 followers, XX engagements


"Kjersti Flaa is so shamelessly evil that she legit has no issue claiming the polar opposite of the truth at every turn. Reality check : Team Baldoni's year-long "strategy just backfired" and they are the ones currently "watching it all CRASH down". A disgrace to journalism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981711567965286610) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T13:17Z 5212 followers, 1005 engagements


"P.S. "They know it's over" should be true for Team Baldoni and Kjersti Flaa right about now but of course Flaa continues to gaslight lie and defame about Blake Lively instead. On brand for a morally bankrupt hack journalist who is about to land in legal debt for life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981712803279835521) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T13:22Z 5214 followers, XXX engagements


"@sonyashea3 So you can say whatever you want on a public platform but anyone who disagrees should "shut the fuck up SURE. Don't play with fire if you can't take the heat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981729424060846128) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T14:28Z 5213 followers, XX engagements


"@sonyashea3 That was my impression after you went that harshly after a rare film from a female director of colour that got critical AND commercial success. "Piece of shit" being "dead last" on a list of 2025 films The A24 romantic drama from Celine Song Not any of the studio slop Sure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981739532862042518) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T15:08Z 5213 followers, XX engagements


"@_Potter_Head_7_ @LeaveHeardAlone @HBO @audible_com We can agree to disagree on a lot but not on a global smear campaign weaponising societal misogyny against a young single mother. Johnny Depp filed X defamation lawsuits. He lost in the UK and he settled in the US. That makes it clear that he could not prove his innocence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981750803304943959) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T15:53Z 5214 followers, XX engagements


"@Ugly1Moon1 Just because you fancy creepy men whose name was virtually unknown to the moviegoing public before and even after that film right up until he made a name for himself as an icon of societal misogyny does not mean anyone else does. Your horrendous taste in men is not consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981752050540057002) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T15:58Z 5212 followers, XX engagements


"@criftter SAG dependent but for now I still don't have him in the top5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981766798405206286) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T16:56Z 5213 followers, XX engagements


"@criftter I am not sure there was a serious development process there. Both Cruella & Jungle Cruise got sequel greenlights at a time when Stone & Blunt were considerin joining Scarlett Johanssons lawsuit because Disney fucked all X out of their bonuses with day and date streaming dates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981791549454229569) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T18:34Z 5213 followers, XXX engagements


"Quite the surprise because while Sean Penn & Wunmi Mosaku were widely expected to be the campaign priorities in their categories I am pretty sure the same was expected for Teyana Taylor & Delroy Lindo. But it looks like the WB priorities will be Regina Hall & Miles Caton there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981795841334501871) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T18:52Z 5217 followers, 5117 engagements


"So if SPRINGSTEEN stays in that 11-12M rage that won't be great but won't be a disaster either. The Smashing Machine with a similar price tag opened with roughly half that earlier this month. The global OW for Springsteen could be 20M. Not bad. Just not great either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981843800806027732) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T22:02Z 5213 followers, 1296 engagements


"P.S. This is not the kind of BO that gets in the way of an Oscar nod. Weaker than expected critics consensus is. So THAT could get in the way. Also : anyone claiming the 22M OW for the 130M+ OBAA was fine should not have a bad word to say about this 11-12M OW on a 55M budget"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981844677965000940) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T22:06Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"And just like that . ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER won Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) at the Golden Globes. Question is who will win Drama but it is probably going to be HAMNET while SINNERS could be easily a crucial guild favourite later on PGA especially"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981857897257787811) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T22:58Z 5216 followers, 7630 engagements


"SONG SUNG BLUE is getting decent early word after its world premiere at AFI Fest. It sounds like a crowdpleaser that may not do super well with critics but will with audiences. Kate Hudson is getting MVP buzz Hugh Jackman praised as well. Early RT/MC scores in a few hours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982686872708219294) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-27T05:52Z 5216 followers, 5309 engagements


"Chase Infiniti now has the chance to accomplish something actresses of colour very rarely get a fair shot at in Hollywood : establish herself as an Oscar nominated leading () lady while still in her 20s AND for a big studio auteur film with X Oscar winners in the cast. Queen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1976095120773546071) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-09T01:19Z 5216 followers, 4802 engagements


"@mavericksmovies I wonder if Disney will push Snow White or Freakier Friday since both songs feature prominently in the films and post-Evita Rachel Zegler and post-comeback Lindsay Lohan could be quite the draws for live Oscar performances. Also will that Rosala ballad in Hamnet qualify"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981092077120127338) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-22T20:15Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"(2/2) In the Oscar context: del Toro Jacob Elordi Tessa Thompson Jennifer Lopez gained traction. Rose Byrne remains piecesofawoman-esque strong & Dynamite still viable in BP. Bugonia closer to Kinds of Kindness than Poor Things. Johnson Blunt White Roberts in trouble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981619248037306471) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T07:10Z 5216 followers, 1592 engagements


"@pgplumsparkle @SoumDesigns I don't think the award is cancelled. That simply never happens and if it had now there would be massive press coverage because everyone would smell scandal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981764109658915134) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T16:45Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"Glenn Close. I expect her to win. Jennifer Lopez. I expect a nomination. Regina Hall. My MVP in OBAA. Wunmi Mosaku. The soul of Sinners. Amanda Seyfried. Gonegirl-esque role"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982129576059777447) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T16:58Z 5216 followers, 34.9K engagements


"(1/2) IF THE THE OSCARS WERE TODAY (October) New post at the end of every month. Will only add already reviewed performances. New entries in blue. Category confusion in red. No 2025 date in green. Verdict : Frankenstein & Hedda glowed up. Springsteen & Bugonia lost some steam"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982733055765909723) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-27T08:56Z 5216 followers, 5750 engagements


"@Irene4310221659 Oscars are not any more political now than they were under Biden or any other recent president"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982079398644990265) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T13:38Z 5216 followers, XX engagements


"The concept of claiming any Yorgos Lanthimos film is "low hanging Oscar bait". He is the rare type whose films are not getting Oscar love because they are Oscar bait they get Oscar love IN SPITE of not being Oscar bait. And Bugonia is especially not even close to Oscar bait"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979815289073406047) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-19T07:42Z 5216 followers, 19.2K engagements


"(1/2) I firmly believe @roadsidetweets would be wise to put #KissOfTheSpiderWoman - on VOD on October 28th (17-day window) - on Hulu/Disney+ on November 21st (the weekend before Golden Globe voting starts and just before many can catch up with it during Thanksgiving week)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981057052253315146) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-22T17:56Z 5216 followers, 21.3K engagements


"@Jane677347 Currently: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen) Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) Jackman may knock someone out today and Chalamet when his reviews drop. Rest comes down to SAG+Bafta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982485136575738245) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T16:31Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"I am not opposed to (music) biopics in general but I do think in future due to shrinking demand the business model should be adjusted. If JUDY could be made for 10M with an Oscar winner then most - even if not all - of these type of films should be doable with 10-35M budgets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982762378350796897) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-27T10:52Z 5216 followers, 1502 engagements


"P.S. For the record I think it would serve this genre from a creative standpoint too if they ditched the pricy "cradle to cemetery" concept and just focus on a pivotal moment in the life of the legend in question that can capture their essence in a compelling & cinematic way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982765387789021550) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-27T11:04Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"I think this could be the Oscar top5 in Lead Actor asterisk being Marty Supreme that still has no reviews. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)* Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) Michael B Jordan (Sinners) Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1978133125407342720) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-14T16:17Z 5216 followers, 21.9K engagements


"@LeaveHeardAlone Daily Mail also has a confirmed link to Team Baldoni thus the PR firm co-owned by Scooter Braun Taylor Swift's very public enemy. Melissa Nathan about the editor of the Daily Mail : "She is my friend. She's ready when we are.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979497879946281162) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-18T10:40Z 5213 followers, XXX engagements


"Variety still pushing this film for Oscars is suss af. Sydney Sweeney has promise as an actress & may get an Oscar nomination one day. But based on precedent you dont get a 1st Oscar nod in lead no less for a film with these kind of reviews AND from an untested distributor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1979784597102878838) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-19T05:40Z 5213 followers, 28.8K engagements


"P.S. It takes a special level of "beloved" to win THREE acting Oscars. In the last XX years only Frances McDormand Meryl Streep Daniel Day-Lewis & Jack Nicholson got that rare honour. Penn is great in OBAA but he is not on a level that would warrant him joining that quartet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1980319619031392345) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-20T17:06Z 5214 followers, 1489 engagements


"Of course Emma Stone can work whenever she wants to. But if Lanthimos really goes on a break I just hope she will embrace her roots a bit more. Another Easy A kind of broad comedy or something new for her like a high-concept auteur driven studio thriller/horror would be fun"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981789557311082619) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T18:27Z 5216 followers, 6947 engagements


"@dragonkameha (1/2) Johnny Depp sued a tabloid and lost because he could not only not prove his innocence there was enough evidence to conclude he assaulted his ex wife half his age at least XX times. Fact. Johnny Depp sued Amber Heard and in the end he settled so unfavourably she had to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981953281313456490) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T05:17Z 5214 followers, XXX engagements


"Supporting Actor seems to be the most up in the air this Oscar season. I am sticking to this quintet below mostly based on BP top10 prospects and because I am not expecting X from the same film: Miles Caton Jacob Elordi Paul Mescal Sean Penn Stellan Skarsgrd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1978770177060737316) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-16T10:29Z 5216 followers, 12.9K engagements


"(1/2) Some festival titles got their general releases in October so a quick MC check in feels warranted. Glow ups: Frankenstein Hedda Spider Woman Dropped but still respectable: If I Had Legs Dynamite Bugonia Dropped and now in trouble : Smashing Machine Springsteen ATH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981616623514747302) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T06:59Z 5216 followers, 5377 engagements


"@co1_nicole Maybe at the Golden Globes. At the Oscars I think best case scenario is script/supporting actor but only if WGA+SAG nominate the film first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981699832143339612) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-24T12:30Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"10 BP BD Script Score Lead Actor Lead Actress Supporting Actress (2x) Supporting Actor (2x) I am not expecting X nominees from the same film at the Oscars in any acting category but due to the 6-slot system that feat could be easier to pull of at GG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982034748579963169) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T10:41Z 5216 followers, 3115 engagements


"ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER made 17.5M worldwide in the last X days. 200M now guaranteed may even get to 220M without any expansions. If not for the price tag this would be great. Rest will come down to later expansions/re-releases tied to Oscar season milestones in January"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982477604952404248) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T16:01Z 5216 followers, 2810 engagements


"Kevin Costner assaulted Wes Bentley and reduced Kelly Reilly to tears on the Yellowstone set Oh he is OVER over. Anyone who traumatises Kelly Reilly should be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1976655367410225155) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-10T14:25Z 5216 followers, 28.1K engagements


"FRANKENSTEIN in XX (BP BD Script S. Actor Casting Score Editing Cinematography Costumes PD Sound Makeup) A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE in X (BP Casting) + X Maybes (BD Script Editing) WAKE UP DEAD MAN in X (Script Supporting Actress Casting) + X maybes (BP S. Actor)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1980699710076666162) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-21T18:16Z 5216 followers, 4332 engagements


"Potential 1st Oscar nominations I am rooting for this season (there are many more wanted to keep it at X per category): Rose Byrne Chase Infiniti Thessa Thompson Wagner Moura Josh O'Connor Tonatiuh Regina Hall Jennifer Lopez Wunmi Mosaku Jacob Elordi Jacobi Jupe David Jonsson"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981365308234580181) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-23T14:21Z 5216 followers, 15.8K engagements


"Maybe when the role is offered by someone who uses her wealth and massive platform to fund and promote hate & legislation unfairly targeting one of the most vulnerable groups in society Andrew Garfield could just say No without further consideration. Just a thought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1981962223732830218) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T05:53Z 5216 followers, 3876 engagements


"@blewis1103"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982130293218652384) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-25T17:01Z 5216 followers, 2019 engagements


"@crit_alps No rage bait to detect anywhere on my account. I have been championing Jennifer Lopez in the supporting actress race this year since January (Sundance)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982371831005790649) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T09:00Z 5216 followers, XXX engagements


"Kieran Culkin was good but the sweep did feel unwarranted. Especially when much better performances that deserved to be win-competitive were not even nominated. Butler. Dickinson. Faist. Hemsworth. Henry. Maclin. Mello. O'Connor. Pearson. Skarsgrd. Washington. Wilson"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982407203660472539) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T11:21Z 5216 followers, 32K engagements


"No. Johnny Depp is a one trick pony and the moviegoing crowd had gotten tired of that one trick long before Amber Heard's op-ed. He had one too many flops on top of one too many burned bridges to have a shot at a redemption era. Not that he even deserves one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982471497051484289) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-26T15:36Z 5216 followers, 2722 engagements


"Rachel Zegler & Ben Platt are talented & on the right side of history. A joint slay. Marc & Jonah Platt are not talented & on the wrong side of history. A joint fail. Latter duo attempting to destroy her for being against child mass murder will not be forgotten. Nor forgiven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/effoff1988/status/1982769163069501523) [@effoff1988](/creator/x/effoff1988) 2025-10-27T11:19Z 5216 followers, 3355 engagements