[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@AndyHazelton](/creator/twitter/AndyHazelton)
"This was pretty wild. I went to bed around X Monday evening ahead of our early flight the next day into #Melissa and fully expected the storm to be in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle when I woke up similar to #Maria right before Puerto Rico. Instead somehow it did yet another merger and became one of the strongest hurricanes the world has ever seen. This is definitely going to be a major research focus for this storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983612423086207469) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-29T19:10Z 35.4K followers, 266.2K engagements


"This looks like the pictures you see in the Deep South with an EF4 tornado. Extremely high-end hurricane wind damage from #Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983682413764214854) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-29T23:48Z 35.4K followers, 51.7K engagements


"This post aged very well unfortunately. Rapid intensification for #Melissa was probably easier to predict in this case than some because of the extremely favorable large-scale conditions. But it's also worth noting that some of our newer models were also hinting at a historical hurricane. Most of the runs of our experimental version of HAFS-B have been calling for a Category X several runs (from early on) for the extreme 160+ knots that we saw. A big part of the reason this version of HAFS did so well with this forecast is it correctly showed the W/SW turn south of Jamaica which put the storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983265734508925111) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T20:12Z 35.4K followers, 126.8K engagements


"Interesting and challenging final mission for me this morning in #Melissa processing sondes for the @NOAA_HurrHunter flight. Obviously Cuba and Jamaica had weakened the core significantly but it now has a much larger wind field. Honestly the never ending small bumps are tougher on my stomach than a single huge jolt from an eyewall like we got yesterday. Fascinating to see how these storms evolve but unfortunately a lot of land areas took a big impact. Also wanted to shout out @TropicalTidbits and @cyclonicwx for their great websites which display a lot of data including the recon data. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983594761572511944) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-29T18:00Z 35.4K followers, 39.2K engagements


"Rather strong signal on dynamical and AI models for a couple of potential strong typhoons to form in the West Pacific over the next week or so. The first invest 98W looks to move through the southern Philippines and into the South China Sea. The second a later system has an even stronger signal but it's still a little ways out. This region along with the Caribbean is notorious for extreme storms in Northern Hemisphere fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984228224046420250) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-31T11:57Z 35.4K followers, 27.3K engagements


"New blog with @brightbandtech and @danrothenberg on AI forecasts for TS Melissa and some of the forecast uncertainty: Definitely keep an eye on the latest forecasts from NHC if you're in Jamaica Cuba Haiti the Dominican Republic or the Cayman Islands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981157475996094633) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-23T00:35Z 35.4K followers, 4465 engagements


"Becoming increasingly concerned for the possibility of a close pass or direct hit on #Jamaica from #Melissa. Overnight hurricane models have trended closer (HAFS-A/HAFS-B/HMON a little north HWRF a little south) and all show impacts on the island. Still not clear if it'll be a direct hit. There would be two chances for that: 1) From the east as the storm turns west for a time (a la HWRF/HMON). 2) From the SW as the storm turns back to the NE. The second one would probably give a stronger storm but maybe less flooding (though some flooding is likely either way). It's also possible the storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981331435790193108) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-23T12:06Z 35.4K followers, 57.7K engagements


"Massive cave by the GFS to other guidance for the track of #Melissa. Honestly that's pretty remarkable to see that kind of error/adjustment for a X day forecast - don't see that too often with modern NWP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981752112901197986) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-24T15:58Z 35.4K followers, 43.4K engagements


"Mission went well this morning Melissa is almost a hurricane and seems primed for rapid intensification soon with the vortex becoming more aligned and symmetric. Curious to see what this looks like tomorrow. Definitely nervous for the impacts in #Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982117787754528885) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-25T16:11Z 35.4K followers, 21.6K engagements


"Taking a look at the experimental wind gust product we're running for HAFS all of the different HAFS versions show gusts of at least XXX kt (140 mph) over parts of the #Jamaica coast in a few days. This storm is going to be a multi-hazard threat: rain wind and surge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982197368641438122) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-25T21:27Z 35.4K followers, 14.2K engagements


"@369Hurricane Nope it looks like an eyewall merger happened this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982838716977578402) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-27T15:56Z 35.4K followers, 43.2K engagements


"@allbamacfb Haha I don't know if we would have gotten to XXX mph but if it had gone even a little further west and missed this trough that turned it towards Jamaica we might have seen some pretty crazy intensity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983286247544983862) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T21:34Z 35.4K followers, 1407 engagements


"@Climawcosta Yup. In real time no need to quibble over XXX knots vs XXX vs XXX (they're all similar and destructive which is what matters for warning folks). But in post season you can take the time to dig into the science a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983307267249496270) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T22:57Z 35.4K followers, 6654 engagements


"@CraigSetzer Yeah maybe just enough shear to keep it from being truly axisymmetric"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983617515147424241) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-29T19:30Z 35.4K followers, 7661 engagements


"@meulenbeld_rick @jwthiesing @WeathermanAAA_ Maintenance - replacing a part. Honestly pretty expected after XX (or whatever it was) back to back missions on NOAA42 at that point. Crew worked their butt off to get us out in time to get what data we could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983907248096030724) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-30T14:42Z 35.4K followers, XXX engagements


"Hi all We'll be hosting experimental (and operational) model guidance on our AOML Hurricane Model Viewer again this season: X models I particularly want to highlight are the ones we'll be helping to run: 1) HAFS-M V2.1 (HAFS multistorm with multiple moving nests in a single outer domain). 2) HAFSV2.1.1B (regular HAFS-B domain but using Tiedtke convection and the "aerosol-aware" version of the Thompson Microphysics). Both of these will be running out to X days experimentally. We'll also be hosting some experimental versions of HAFS that EMC is running. The outer domain of the HAFS-M should"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1953791273418039745) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-08-08T12:11Z 35.4K followers, 126.3K engagements


"If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show) I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category X and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep warm water (above average) -A massive upper anticyclone -Enhanced divergence from the jet to the north -Moist environment At that point the only constraint on intensity would be inner-core structure and the maximum potential intensity (MPI)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980986083694277108) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-22T13:14Z 35.4K followers, 394.1K engagements


"Really interesting morning mission in #Melissa. The storm had somewhat surprisingly leveled off after overnight rapid intensification but of course it's still a powerful Category X with a couple more days before landfall. We'll see if it resumes intensification or if ERCs+a bit of shear cause it to stay steady. Could see the stadium effect though the eye was cloudy in spots. Definitely not something to take lightly in Jamaica Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as it turns NE this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982482770782818347) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-26T16:21Z 35.4K followers, 115K engagements


"Wild ride in Hurricane #Melissa today. My first time ever in a Category X and it was definitely the most turbulent I've ever experienced. I was processing the dropsonde data and sending it out - some of these are up there with about as strong as Atlantic hurricanes can get. Definitely take this one seriously in Jamaica and Cuba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982837687045247295) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-27T15:51Z 35.4K followers, 329.3K engagements


"Gotta get to bed since we'll be up at X am to do another mission into #Melissa right before landfall in Jamaica tomorrow. Here's a video I took today going through the NE eyewall into the eye. I had to tilt the phone up to get a view of the eye because it was so cylindrical (not the classic stadium effect). Reminded me a lot of Hurricane Michael in 2018"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982918405414863242) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-27T21:12Z 35.4K followers, 718K engagements


"Just landed after an absolutely insane flight with @NOAA_HurrHunter into #Melissa just before landfall in #Jamaica. I was processing the dropsonde data before it went out. When I saw the XXX m/s (219 knots) just above the surface I couldn't believe it. My display only goes to XXX by default. Such a sad situation for residents in its path. Probably will be a swath of tornado like damage. I think we also almost tied a flight level wind record today. Unfortunately tied the Labor Day hurricane for lowest pressure at landfall in the Atlantic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983223753799524628) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T17:26Z 35.4K followers, 607.5K engagements


"I would imagine that this piece of data along with the insane sonde winds and low-level TDR will be looked at in post-season to see if the peak intensity of #Melissa might have been even higher and tied or beaten Allen (1980) for the all-time strongest Atlantic hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983305086211371411) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T22:49Z 35.4K followers, 252K engagements


"This is a video from our flight the other day into #Melissa as we were going through the eyewall into the eye. It gives you some idea of the level of turbulence and shows how awesome the pilots and crew are to keep the plane steady. Also wanted to give a shout out to the maintenance crew for keeping Kermit in good shape during the sequence. We didn't have a single flight get scrapped during what ended up being almost a week of missions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983869292719329631) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-30T12:11Z 35.4K followers, 465K engagements


"There's been a mean trough over the Southeast CONUS for much of the peak of hurricane season under high-latitude blocking to the north. This has acted as a wall for storms approaching from the east. Melissa could have been a threat to the US if it got a little further west but a shortwave was able to dip far enough down to pull it out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984263432477040719) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-31T14:17Z 35.4K followers, 1646 engagements


"Unfortunately when I saw the wind measurements we were getting yesterday in #Melissa I knew a swath of wind damage and defoliation like this was going to happen. At least there are still some structures standing and hopefully #Jamaica is able to get help to rebuild quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983605560307335483) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-29T18:43Z 35.4K followers, 34.5K engagements


"I did my MS thesis on eyewall slope There's a weak correlation between slope and intensity but a strong one between eye size and slope. Smaller eyes tend to be more vertical. Compare yesterday with a XX mile eye (more cylindrical) to today with a XX mile eye (more sloped)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983310031941668970) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-10-28T23:08Z 35.4K followers, 62.6K engagements


"Last week with the forecasts for #Melissa I noticed that coupled hurricane models were showing a "cold" wake behind the storm but still 27-28C (the typical threshold for supporting a major hurricane is about 28C). Sure enough it looks like observations show about those values south of Jamaica. Goes to show how anomalously warm the Caribbean has been (and how deep the warmth goes) that a Category X was able to move that slow for so long and yet the ocean only cooled to a level that would still support a major hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984730324060790873) [@AndyHazelton](/creator/x/AndyHazelton) 2025-11-01T21:12Z 35.4K followers, 34.6K engagements