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[@roojoo3](/creator/twitter/roojoo3)
"So with $1450m in sales assume XX% GP Margin (aggressive) and $130m in cost cuts you get to $42m EBIT $11m SBC $109m Adj EBITDA. Add $106m in rent (will be less) = $215m EBITDAR. ND + Leases = $931m. ND / EBITDAR = 4.33x. They'll be in breach in Q1 2026 when covenant ratios drop to 4.0x EBITDAR. But it's worse. They have been 'cutting' debt by shortening the average lease duration not by actually paying down debt. Covenants used to put a 6x multiple on rent expenses now they just take the balance sheet value which makes it easier to game the number. Actual ND / EBITDA is 5.15x by year end."  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1950612554067366098) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-07-30T17:40Z 3191 followers, XXX engagements


"For a while $DSGR was a buy-side favorite. A potential mini-Fastenal run by a management team with significant skin in the game (LKCM owns XX% of s.o.) Investors seem to have forgotten about this one even though earnings are inflecting upwards. 1/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1950936381855043676) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-07-31T15:07Z 3191 followers, 3857 engagements


"I think the actual shorts are quant driven. High leverage declining volumes and profitability. But why are people long This used to trade at 20x p/e because it was a defensive stock with msd growth due to increased outsourcing. It will take a while before this will be looked at as defensive again. If cocoa prices normalize (or go way below normalized) and they get their cost cuts through this trades at a low teens p/e. Maybe XX% upside in 2-3 years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1979354926502564303) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-18T01:12Z 3191 followers, 1251 engagements


"Some good on the ground research into the China operations of $INT.ST Apparently the dosimeters sell for a retail price of XXX CNY. Wasn't this a $1-5 product with XX% GP Margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1976641792717291986) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-10T13:31Z 3188 followers, 5880 engagements


"It's interesting how all those HK listed companies that trade at XX% dividend yield or XX% discount to NAV have X interest in talking to investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1978518181049229413) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-15T17:47Z 3188 followers, 1898 engagements


"Roughly a XX% beat by $MRX. For anyone who gave credibility to the short thesis and is like "ooh those earnings are fake and depend on derivatives moves": MtM of derivatives were a headwind to earnings in H1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1955607568434479427) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-08-13T12:29Z 3190 followers, 7238 engagements


"Q3 2025 was another good quarter for Night Watch with performance of XXXX% bringing YTD performance to 25.88%. Results were helped by strong performance from $HAYPP $WDC $DSGR and $AIR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1973803470970081790) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-02T17:33Z 3190 followers, 24.9K engagements


"@hkuppy If I ever do another podcast I will have to work on my Joe Rogan looks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1978983829953020184) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-17T00:38Z 3190 followers, XXX engagements


"Looks like $JOE had their cash flowing assets appraised by Jones Lang LaSalle. $XXX - $1.7b in value for X% of their acres putting no value on the remaining 166k acres. That's XX% of their market cap covered by X% of their land"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1922266522770174187) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-05-13T12:23Z 3191 followers, 44.5K engagements


"Not sure what's more desperate ($INT.ST): - Organizing an EGM for a X% buyback authorization - A synthetic buyback where no shares will actually be canceled - Disclosing liquidity instead of cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1973718887758954891) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-02T11:57Z 3191 followers, 3391 engagements


"We discussed $MRX in the recent KEDM happy hour. (Btw if I'm ever doing a podcast again I will try to talk and look more like Joe Rogan)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1978913574731812926) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-16T19:58Z 3191 followers, 1809 engagements


"@John_Hempton Are there a lot of small players though I thought the main competition is from their customers insourcing. And if volumes don't fully recover the outsourcer could very well be the swing producer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/roojoo3/status/1979371751160033456) [@roojoo3](/creator/x/roojoo3) 2025-10-18T02:19Z 3191 followers, XXX engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@roojoo3 "So with $1450m in sales assume XX% GP Margin (aggressive) and $130m in cost cuts you get to $42m EBIT $11m SBC $109m Adj EBITDA. Add $106m in rent (will be less) = $215m EBITDAR. ND + Leases = $931m. ND / EBITDAR = 4.33x. They'll be in breach in Q1 2026 when covenant ratios drop to 4.0x EBITDAR. But it's worse. They have been 'cutting' debt by shortening the average lease duration not by actually paying down debt. Covenants used to put a 6x multiple on rent expenses now they just take the balance sheet value which makes it easier to game the number. Actual ND / EBITDA is 5.15x by year end."
X Link @roojoo3 2025-07-30T17:40Z 3191 followers, XXX engagements

"For a while $DSGR was a buy-side favorite. A potential mini-Fastenal run by a management team with significant skin in the game (LKCM owns XX% of s.o.) Investors seem to have forgotten about this one even though earnings are inflecting upwards. 1/n"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-07-31T15:07Z 3191 followers, 3857 engagements

"I think the actual shorts are quant driven. High leverage declining volumes and profitability. But why are people long This used to trade at 20x p/e because it was a defensive stock with msd growth due to increased outsourcing. It will take a while before this will be looked at as defensive again. If cocoa prices normalize (or go way below normalized) and they get their cost cuts through this trades at a low teens p/e. Maybe XX% upside in 2-3 years"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-18T01:12Z 3191 followers, 1251 engagements

"Some good on the ground research into the China operations of $INT.ST Apparently the dosimeters sell for a retail price of XXX CNY. Wasn't this a $1-5 product with XX% GP Margins"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-10T13:31Z 3188 followers, 5880 engagements

"It's interesting how all those HK listed companies that trade at XX% dividend yield or XX% discount to NAV have X interest in talking to investors"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-15T17:47Z 3188 followers, 1898 engagements

"Roughly a XX% beat by $MRX. For anyone who gave credibility to the short thesis and is like "ooh those earnings are fake and depend on derivatives moves": MtM of derivatives were a headwind to earnings in H1"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-08-13T12:29Z 3190 followers, 7238 engagements

"Q3 2025 was another good quarter for Night Watch with performance of XXXX% bringing YTD performance to 25.88%. Results were helped by strong performance from $HAYPP $WDC $DSGR and $AIR"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-02T17:33Z 3190 followers, 24.9K engagements

"@hkuppy If I ever do another podcast I will have to work on my Joe Rogan looks"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-17T00:38Z 3190 followers, XXX engagements

"Looks like $JOE had their cash flowing assets appraised by Jones Lang LaSalle. $XXX - $1.7b in value for X% of their acres putting no value on the remaining 166k acres. That's XX% of their market cap covered by X% of their land"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-05-13T12:23Z 3191 followers, 44.5K engagements

"Not sure what's more desperate ($INT.ST): - Organizing an EGM for a X% buyback authorization - A synthetic buyback where no shares will actually be canceled - Disclosing liquidity instead of cash"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-02T11:57Z 3191 followers, 3391 engagements

"We discussed $MRX in the recent KEDM happy hour. (Btw if I'm ever doing a podcast again I will try to talk and look more like Joe Rogan)"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-16T19:58Z 3191 followers, 1809 engagements

"@John_Hempton Are there a lot of small players though I thought the main competition is from their customers insourcing. And if volumes don't fully recover the outsourcer could very well be the swing producer"
X Link @roojoo3 2025-10-18T02:19Z 3191 followers, XXX engagements

creator/twitter::817423180428177409/posts
/creator/twitter::817423180428177409/posts