[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@Rufyb](/creator/twitter/Rufyb) "However generating revenue is one thing and making profits is another. GTCO dwarfs Zenith Bank in terms of total assets (Zeniths total assets of 30trn vs GTCOs 15trn) and the trend has always been like that" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1905812409069019641) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-03-29T02:41Z 22.2K followers, 2184 engagements "In January 2025 I believed the coy was already fairly priced. Lol it went to do +90% after then" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015853923148081) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Based on my estimates I expect Unilever to deliver 45bn EBITDA in 2025. What EV/EBITDA multiple can we consider fair Let us say a range of 6x 10x (say we want to be very generous). In that case why not let us call it 8x" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015869299544574) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "If I plug the multiple Id arrive at a 360bn enterprise value. If I adjust for net debt Id close out at 450bn equity value (Unilevers cash position is super strong about XX% of revenues and nearly XX% of net assets)" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015874336804899) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Should Unilever deploy that cash to invest the revenue (and earnings) growth story may be significantly different. I suppose the market considerably adds a premium on Unilever for that possibility" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015889247629452) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "In the past market folks wondered why Unilever had tons of cash on its books without deploying it. They did not invest they did not grant credit sales they did not pay 'strong' dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015893349347805) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "The market may be pricing in all these things that may seem like a positive development. It may see some strong future growth but I am generally conservative. Id rather look for clear most-likely winners at a lot more attractive price. Call it margin-of-safety" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015915403223474) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:51Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "I didnt answer your question directly. To put it specifically I dont know or I can not say if Unilever is overvalued or undervalued). Id rather consider a Nestl Nascon or even maybe Dangote Sugar first" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015920084124152) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:51Z 22.3K followers, 1437 engagements "If that happens we should start seeing some fresh inflows into the market in Q4 2025 which could further strengthen the current positive momentum" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1977856030517154142) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-13T21:56Z 22.2K followers, XXX engagements "Talent and know-how Infrastructure financing is a specialised field. You need people who understand financing structure credit risk core contracts project finance basics process and risk sharing. The NIDF team is very strong on this" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978382088156946814) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "@MiftaudeenAbd12 @pertschi_rachel That's not what I insinuated. I think you miscomprehended. I said the past ten years have been disastrous and wasted (and that's a fact) and that we need to do increasingly higher to restore parity. How did that relate to GEJ or no GEJ please" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978786939491754168) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:35Z 22.3K followers, XX engagements "One of the examples of how PE investments can be complex. This example of a management buyout is structured such that a PE fund and the target firms management team invest equity in a newly created Topco acquisition vehicle. Topco with cash then lends the money to Midco. Midco with the loan money from Topco tops up its debt by borrowing another loan (which can be shareholder debt from the PE fund or junior debt from an external financier). After raising these two debts (i.e. from the Topco and additional debt from other sources) Midco lends the money to Bidco. Bidco takes the debt from Midco" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1970517451042332937) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-09-23T15:55Z 22.3K followers, 4579 engagements "There is rarely any role in a bank that is better than any Big Four in the long run in terms of career progression. Except for specific technical roles (e.g. someone has passion for treasury credit analysis or corporate banking). Banks salivate folks from Big Four to fill Managers and Senior Managers roles. An individual that started in a Big Four can get those roles in a bank in less than ten years. If you started in a bank it will take 'forever'" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1974756318301811169) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-05T08:39Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Unilever is actually a difficult one for me to value tbh. In January 2024 when the stock traded for XX per share I estimated that it was going to double. By January 2025 the stock price had risen to XX per share doubled as expected" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015842158186602) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, 11.1K engagements "Management said there were limited opportunities. At the same time they were exiting some lines Sunlight Omo Lipton though some of those choices came from the parent company" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015897514569744) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Frankly the macro picture at the time did not justify any large-scale investment by any corporate (case in point: Procter & Gamble learnt the hard way. They had to shut down their $300mm Agbara manufacturing plant investment just after a year or two)" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975015902124057079) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "This guy Chuka Mordi. a solid guy. He knows what he is doing. The restructuring of Ellah Lakes' business model didn't start today yesterday or last year. It started since 2019. And it started after an SPV CBO Capital held a significant stake in Ellah Lakes (in the same way Folasope Aiyesimoju's Themis Capital acquired a significant stake in UACN). Ellah Lakes was around X or X at the time. A well-trained investment banker man is using all his connects and relationships to raise capital to bring Ellah Lakes (a former fish farming business) back to life. He is building. One of these days if" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975307506051125548) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-06T21:09Z 22.3K followers, 37.8K engagements "I agree with him. Masa used to be Nvidia's largest shareholder and then he sold. Nvidia went on to do crazy stuff afterwards. Earlier this year the earnings growth of Nvidia relative to the market value presented a very rare opportunity that I capitalised on. That's by the way. There is a question mark about whether Nvidia's growth rate will sustain. In the near to medium term I think so. In the long term it can still maintain it's earnings growth rate. GDP growth is a function of (i) labour (ii) productivity Labour is a function of labour supply labour participation rate and net immigration." [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975491791500488932) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-07T09:22Z 22.3K followers, 17K engagements "Interesting development. This is gonna be a potentially big deal if it flies through. Right now we do 21bn (about $14mm) worth of trades daily. Foreign investors make up XX% of that which is around $3mm. In the past foreign investors used to do $6mm daily. They pulled out of Nigeria because bad policies destroyed value and wealth for almost every investor. If we can return to that $6mm level it means an extra 5bn in daily trades. We may also see more local investors come in because some of them only play actively when foreigners are around. For them if foreigners are not in there are very few" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975887061405126951) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-08T11:32Z 22.3K followers, 31.7K engagements "Another REIT is coming to the market but it is going to be a close-ended fund" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1976244896051982534) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-09T11:14Z 22.3K followers, 5285 engagements "REITs have generally delivered poor returns. SFS REIT has been doing quite well recently though" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1976250687840452959) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-09T11:37Z 22.3K followers, 7955 engagements "You only need to understand how macroeconomic variables (such as GDP inflation interest rate exchange rate etc.) work and how their movement affect the financial markets. That's what you need and you'd make a killing with the moves and decisions you make. π―π―" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1977787161899421898) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-13T17:22Z 22.3K followers, 9659 engagements "Many managers at other funds come from investment banking with an energy tilt. That is not the same as having the core knowledge of infrastructure financing" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978382090535121030) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Omoamilor @AlikoDangote The structural issues leading to depreciation are the differential between the inflation rate of the Naira and the inflation rate of the USD. Sadly I don't see any concrete signs that it has been taken care of" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1973739256146526368) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-02T13:18Z 22.3K followers, 1065 engagements "All those billion-dollar funding just to transport 4mm passengers annually Hmmm. Capital allocation must be great" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1975563101648171110) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-07T14:05Z 22.3K followers, 35.1K engagements "Those arrears amount to X trillion in this case" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978585954743980122) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-15T22:17Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Because of the liquidity crunch Gencos and gas suppliers are not investing as much as they should. Existing shareholders are unable to pay themselves good dividends for the risky venture they undertook" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978585958158156268) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-15T22:17Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "The group of people that come together to pool the capital (i.e. the shareholders) may run the business directly or appoint people to do so. Either way the shareholders are interested in making sustainable profits on their invested capital" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979137428238504414) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Therefore when I see any public offer or rights issue the first thing that comes to mind is the Return on Equity (ROE). If the companys historical ROE consistently falls below a certain threshold or my required return I would pass" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979137430646055241) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "However it is also important to note that past performance should not entirely be extrapolated into the future. Sometimes a new capital raise may deliver a different reality say if the company intends to invest in assets that power new growth" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979137433053622641) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "I mean Wema Bank for instance used to be poor until something changed. That transformation shows how strategic reinvestment can alter a companys trajectory if the capital is deployed wisely" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979137435263959538) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Before I can participate in any primary market issuance of any company I must be reliably sure that the incremental return on equity is solid. If not I would just focus on buying the shares in the secondary market where price dislocations often exist" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979137437654712430) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "β Foreign currency pressure: landowners benchmark values in USD to hedge FX losses" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204417967608247) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Industrial and Medical Gases is raising 6.4bn equity capital to deleverage and fund its ongoing capacity expansion. In 2024 the company secured" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1959950633332621756) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-08-25T12:06Z 22.3K followers, 13K engagements "I was telling someone the other day: Cement price in 2020: 2500 per 50kg Cement price in 2025: 10000 per 50kg Growth: 4x FX rate in 2020 (parallel market): 400/500 FX rate in 2025: 1500 Growth: 3x/4x The product is made in Nigeria" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1970137485238780364) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-09-22T14:45Z 22.3K followers, 54.4K engagements "I was in some really good mood late last night so I decided to look into my spreadsheet for potential openings. I was able to see a few things. Please note I'm simply freestyling here. Whatever you choose to do with this information is entirely your responsibility. I have an existing (significant) stake in the majority of these names. Always do your own due diligence. Again I'm just freestyling. Mo ke to o" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1972982192075608219) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 22.6K engagements "We'd revisit soon" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1972982219733168140) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 2325 engagements "In terms of stock liquidity the daily average trade of the companies is as follows: The liquid ones β GTCO: 1.6bn β MTNN: 778mm β Aradel: 623mm β Lafarge: 258mm The fairly liquid ones β Nascon: 136mm β Wema Bank: 85mm β Cadbury: 75mm The 'not-so-liquid ones' β Beta Glass: 55mm β Stanbic IBTC: 40mm β Custodian: 33mm β Chapel Hill Infra Fund: 18mm β NEM: 15mm" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1972982221804875821) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 4819 engagements "I no go talk anything but I will drop this (except they misquoted you). By the way we both know that points X and X are 'faabu' but no worries. Fingers crossed" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978094306087821495) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 22.3K followers, 45.6K engagements "Why NIDF stands out" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978382085875196155) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Over XX good years wasted. It is why little wins and gains of today don't move me. Like bruh we need to do 2x 3x or even 4x more to first of all equalise where we were in 2014. There is a lot to do for me to romanticise small gains" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978759989033423347) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T09:48Z 22.3K followers, 38.5K engagements "U.S. equities and gold are moving in the same direction a rarity in the financial market. Morgan Stanley says there are several reasons behind this unusual trend" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779138463846467) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 12.6K engagements "On one side some investors are buying gold as a hedge against a possible AI-driven bubble in stocks. The high P/E ratios and the heavy concentration of the S&P XXX in a few mega-cap tech stocks make them uneasy" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779140758118893) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1298 engagements "However data show investors arent panicking. The CBOE Volatility Index (a key gauge of market fear) remains low corporate fundamentals look solid and U.S. GDP continues to post strong numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779143199183144) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1278 engagements "Despite this demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong including from foreign buyers which shows the dollars dominance isnt going away anytime soon" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779154406351062) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Morgan Stanley suggests golds rally may be part of a global financial shift. As central banks reduce reliance on the USD and explore stablecoins or digital assets gold is becoming more strategic" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779156482547746) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "If gold starts backing fiat currencies or digital assets it could challenge the USDs dominance in global trade and that according to Morgan Stanley might fuel the continuation of golds bull market" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779158676177145) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1294 engagements "The whole conversation about digital assets and gold reminds me of my then thesis on Bitcoin and why I bought some then. Today I couldn't be bothered about the daily swings of Bitcoin prices. It's to hold till further notice" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978779161159258276) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1303 engagements "Lol you said 'Why were IOCs leaving' And that changed to 'Most IOCs stalled with on new FIDS since 2014 (the same base year I referenced in my initial tweet'. Meanwhile you had ConocoPhillips (2014) Chevron (2015) Addax (2023) ExxonMobil (2024) ENI (2024) and TotalEnergies (2024) all divesting some parts of their assets in the past ten years. As for your 'evidential fact' when you asked to me 'why were we borrowing to pay FG salaries' where did you drop your fact Lmao" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978793707068694807) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T12:02Z 22.3K followers, XX engagements "@Polymath100 Okay o" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978819423797449091) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T13:44Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "My attention was glued to Toni Kroos and his movementsπ₯Ή" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979145169103434203) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T11:19Z 22.3K followers, 3607 engagements "One thing to note: lower interest rates are only possible because inflation is easing. Interest rates are simply the price of risk and that price is largely driven by inflation trends. Lets hope this positive trend (of declining inflation) continues" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979146591278645331) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T11:24Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "By the way expect your mutual fund returns to further decline in the coming weeks or months. likely around 12%14% yield levels" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979146593501614507) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T11:24Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "The 'trend' is what matters more. Meanwhile the inflation rate is no longer like-for- like. You can no longer use any inflation data in years preceding 2025. If you adjust the current methodology to the 2023 methodology it most likely would be more than the current 18%" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979158675848560976) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T12:12Z 22.3K followers, 10.6K engagements "Unrelated but. The problem is so obvious yet policymakers seem to be taking no action. Based on estimates land costs account for nearly 40%60% of the total building cost (in urban areas). Imagine paying XX million for a plot of land. What would you expect" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204365983396335) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, 17.1K engagements "The profits of land dealers or developers are the woes of real estate developers and property developers" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204369955352636) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, 1184 engagements "A governor or a political party can perform poorly and still win the next election. So what is the incentive to solve real problems" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204378511679678) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "In Singapore a widely referenced country known for solving its housing crisis (moving from XX% of people without homes to XX% homeownership). The model was to use the Housing & Development Board (HDB) to plan build and manage housing" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204381376495639) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Non-structural factors are cyclical or behavioural. They can be managed via market regulation fiscal tools or incentives" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204409620914300) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Non-structural factors are: β Speculation & land banking: buying and holding land for capital gains rather than development. Limited supply pushes prices higher" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204412208738759) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "β Inflation expectations: sellers adjust land prices upward in anticipation of future inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204415119638750) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "I see and acknowledge the MREIF solution that is currently out there but sadly the problem has to be solved at its root causes. It is a subsidy and there is a risk that it won't be sustainable for as long as housing cost drivers remain unchecked" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204423055249813) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Singapore solved housing by locking land finance and housing policy into one system. Nigerias MOFIMREIF model tries to fix the finance but not yet the land which is the biggest cost driver" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204425978651065) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "So unless the Land Use Act and state-level land administration are reformed MREIFs impact will likely be partial: it may help more people access mortgages but not make houses fundamentally affordable" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979204428939870698) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "Emerging market (EM) equities are expected to rally over the next XX months driven by earnings upgrades demand for geographical diversification and anticipatedinterest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve along with a weaker dollar. The MSCI EM index has risen for nine straight months buoyed by AI optimism and strong buying from foreign investors. We think the EM equity rally can extend as macro trends and capital inflows remain supportive Kamakshya Trivedi chief foreign exchange and emerging markets strategist in Goldman Sachs Research writes." [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979235010860249293) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T17:16Z 22.3K followers, 2957 engagements "Yes you can. But the yield you get each time you top up will vary. This is because the bond prices change everyday. For example say you bought your first 1mm bond at XXX per unit. This bond coupon is XX% hence your yield is XX% (i.e. 16/100). If after sometime - say six months later you decide to top up the investment with another 1mm. By this time interest rates in the economy have declined and the bond price has risen to XXX. The coupon remains at XX% but the yield on your second investment is XX% (16/120)" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979363741452874074) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-18T01:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements "π― If the investment horizon is short-term volatility becomes a crucial risk measure. On the other hand for long-term investors the primary concern may be achieving the long-term return objective. Debt instruments typically cater for volatility while equity or equity-like instruments typically cater for long-term return" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1978808833293046104) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-16T13:02Z 22.3K followers, 19.9K engagements "If you grow well enough and your margins are strong enough the market will tend to 'price you' well and your valuations will be strong. So far in H1 2025 the revenue growth: β BUA Foods: +110% β Nestl: +43% β DanSugar: +46% β Nascon: +55% Is it obvious to you why Nascon is my pick on this list Do you see it too" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979155532632953152) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T12:00Z 22.3K followers, 8049 engagements "The YTD performance of some listed companies. The marked companies are in the top XX among all the listed coys in the market" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979327378263544114) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-17T23:23Z 22.3K followers, 6676 engagements "Steady progress but very much dissatisfied. Inflation is not comparable so I am yanking that off. Not a like-for-like. But I'd take interest rate movements. Fiscal deficit is what matters not revenues. Reserves are good but they are not there for the sake of it (i.e. it's a useless metric on its own). Maybe exchange rate trends or volatility trends or premium between official rate and black market rate may be more useful. I acknowledge the progress here. Iono GDP growth from X% to X% looks shit to me. But then again celebrate your little wins. While on GDP how about show GDP per capita Daily" [X Link](https://x.com/Rufyb/status/1979388721842581880) [@Rufyb](/creator/x/Rufyb) 2025-10-18T03:27Z 22.3K followers, 33.3K engagements
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@Rufyb
"However generating revenue is one thing and making profits is another. GTCO dwarfs Zenith Bank in terms of total assets (Zeniths total assets of 30trn vs GTCOs 15trn) and the trend has always been like that"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-03-29T02:41Z 22.2K followers, 2184 engagements
"In January 2025 I believed the coy was already fairly priced. Lol it went to do +90% after then"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Based on my estimates I expect Unilever to deliver 45bn EBITDA in 2025. What EV/EBITDA multiple can we consider fair Let us say a range of 6x 10x (say we want to be very generous). In that case why not let us call it 8x"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"If I plug the multiple Id arrive at a 360bn enterprise value. If I adjust for net debt Id close out at 450bn equity value (Unilevers cash position is super strong about XX% of revenues and nearly XX% of net assets)"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Should Unilever deploy that cash to invest the revenue (and earnings) growth story may be significantly different. I suppose the market considerably adds a premium on Unilever for that possibility"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"In the past market folks wondered why Unilever had tons of cash on its books without deploying it. They did not invest they did not grant credit sales they did not pay 'strong' dividends"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"The market may be pricing in all these things that may seem like a positive development. It may see some strong future growth but I am generally conservative. Id rather look for clear most-likely winners at a lot more attractive price. Call it margin-of-safety"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:51Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"I didnt answer your question directly. To put it specifically I dont know or I can not say if Unilever is overvalued or undervalued). Id rather consider a Nestl Nascon or even maybe Dangote Sugar first"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:51Z 22.3K followers, 1437 engagements
"If that happens we should start seeing some fresh inflows into the market in Q4 2025 which could further strengthen the current positive momentum"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-13T21:56Z 22.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Talent and know-how Infrastructure financing is a specialised field. You need people who understand financing structure credit risk core contracts project finance basics process and risk sharing. The NIDF team is very strong on this"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@MiftaudeenAbd12 @pertschi_rachel That's not what I insinuated. I think you miscomprehended. I said the past ten years have been disastrous and wasted (and that's a fact) and that we need to do increasingly higher to restore parity. How did that relate to GEJ or no GEJ please"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:35Z 22.3K followers, XX engagements
"One of the examples of how PE investments can be complex. This example of a management buyout is structured such that a PE fund and the target firms management team invest equity in a newly created Topco acquisition vehicle. Topco with cash then lends the money to Midco. Midco with the loan money from Topco tops up its debt by borrowing another loan (which can be shareholder debt from the PE fund or junior debt from an external financier). After raising these two debts (i.e. from the Topco and additional debt from other sources) Midco lends the money to Bidco. Bidco takes the debt from Midco"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-09-23T15:55Z 22.3K followers, 4579 engagements
"There is rarely any role in a bank that is better than any Big Four in the long run in terms of career progression. Except for specific technical roles (e.g. someone has passion for treasury credit analysis or corporate banking). Banks salivate folks from Big Four to fill Managers and Senior Managers roles. An individual that started in a Big Four can get those roles in a bank in less than ten years. If you started in a bank it will take 'forever'"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-05T08:39Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Unilever is actually a difficult one for me to value tbh. In January 2024 when the stock traded for XX per share I estimated that it was going to double. By January 2025 the stock price had risen to XX per share doubled as expected"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, 11.1K engagements
"Management said there were limited opportunities. At the same time they were exiting some lines Sunlight Omo Lipton though some of those choices came from the parent company"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Frankly the macro picture at the time did not justify any large-scale investment by any corporate (case in point: Procter & Gamble learnt the hard way. They had to shut down their $300mm Agbara manufacturing plant investment just after a year or two)"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T01:50Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"This guy Chuka Mordi. a solid guy. He knows what he is doing. The restructuring of Ellah Lakes' business model didn't start today yesterday or last year. It started since 2019. And it started after an SPV CBO Capital held a significant stake in Ellah Lakes (in the same way Folasope Aiyesimoju's Themis Capital acquired a significant stake in UACN). Ellah Lakes was around X or X at the time. A well-trained investment banker man is using all his connects and relationships to raise capital to bring Ellah Lakes (a former fish farming business) back to life. He is building. One of these days if"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-06T21:09Z 22.3K followers, 37.8K engagements
"I agree with him. Masa used to be Nvidia's largest shareholder and then he sold. Nvidia went on to do crazy stuff afterwards. Earlier this year the earnings growth of Nvidia relative to the market value presented a very rare opportunity that I capitalised on. That's by the way. There is a question mark about whether Nvidia's growth rate will sustain. In the near to medium term I think so. In the long term it can still maintain it's earnings growth rate. GDP growth is a function of (i) labour (ii) productivity Labour is a function of labour supply labour participation rate and net immigration."
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-07T09:22Z 22.3K followers, 17K engagements
"Interesting development. This is gonna be a potentially big deal if it flies through. Right now we do 21bn (about $14mm) worth of trades daily. Foreign investors make up XX% of that which is around $3mm. In the past foreign investors used to do $6mm daily. They pulled out of Nigeria because bad policies destroyed value and wealth for almost every investor. If we can return to that $6mm level it means an extra 5bn in daily trades. We may also see more local investors come in because some of them only play actively when foreigners are around. For them if foreigners are not in there are very few"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-08T11:32Z 22.3K followers, 31.7K engagements
"Another REIT is coming to the market but it is going to be a close-ended fund"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-09T11:14Z 22.3K followers, 5285 engagements
"REITs have generally delivered poor returns. SFS REIT has been doing quite well recently though"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-09T11:37Z 22.3K followers, 7955 engagements
"You only need to understand how macroeconomic variables (such as GDP inflation interest rate exchange rate etc.) work and how their movement affect the financial markets. That's what you need and you'd make a killing with the moves and decisions you make. π―π―"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-13T17:22Z 22.3K followers, 9659 engagements
"Many managers at other funds come from investment banking with an energy tilt. That is not the same as having the core knowledge of infrastructure financing"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Omoamilor @AlikoDangote The structural issues leading to depreciation are the differential between the inflation rate of the Naira and the inflation rate of the USD. Sadly I don't see any concrete signs that it has been taken care of"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-02T13:18Z 22.3K followers, 1065 engagements
"All those billion-dollar funding just to transport 4mm passengers annually Hmmm. Capital allocation must be great"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-07T14:05Z 22.3K followers, 35.1K engagements
"Those arrears amount to X trillion in this case"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-15T22:17Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Because of the liquidity crunch Gencos and gas suppliers are not investing as much as they should. Existing shareholders are unable to pay themselves good dividends for the risky venture they undertook"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-15T22:17Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"The group of people that come together to pool the capital (i.e. the shareholders) may run the business directly or appoint people to do so. Either way the shareholders are interested in making sustainable profits on their invested capital"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Therefore when I see any public offer or rights issue the first thing that comes to mind is the Return on Equity (ROE). If the companys historical ROE consistently falls below a certain threshold or my required return I would pass"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"However it is also important to note that past performance should not entirely be extrapolated into the future. Sometimes a new capital raise may deliver a different reality say if the company intends to invest in assets that power new growth"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"I mean Wema Bank for instance used to be poor until something changed. That transformation shows how strategic reinvestment can alter a companys trajectory if the capital is deployed wisely"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Before I can participate in any primary market issuance of any company I must be reliably sure that the incremental return on equity is solid. If not I would just focus on buying the shares in the secondary market where price dislocations often exist"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T10:48Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"β Foreign currency pressure: landowners benchmark values in USD to hedge FX losses"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Industrial and Medical Gases is raising 6.4bn equity capital to deleverage and fund its ongoing capacity expansion. In 2024 the company secured"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-08-25T12:06Z 22.3K followers, 13K engagements
"I was telling someone the other day: Cement price in 2020: 2500 per 50kg Cement price in 2025: 10000 per 50kg Growth: 4x FX rate in 2020 (parallel market): 400/500 FX rate in 2025: 1500 Growth: 3x/4x The product is made in Nigeria"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-09-22T14:45Z 22.3K followers, 54.4K engagements
"I was in some really good mood late last night so I decided to look into my spreadsheet for potential openings. I was able to see a few things. Please note I'm simply freestyling here. Whatever you choose to do with this information is entirely your responsibility. I have an existing (significant) stake in the majority of these names. Always do your own due diligence. Again I'm just freestyling. Mo ke to o"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 22.6K engagements
"We'd revisit soon"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 2325 engagements
"In terms of stock liquidity the daily average trade of the companies is as follows: The liquid ones β GTCO: 1.6bn β MTNN: 778mm β Aradel: 623mm β Lafarge: 258mm The fairly liquid ones β Nascon: 136mm β Wema Bank: 85mm β Cadbury: 75mm The 'not-so-liquid ones' β Beta Glass: 55mm β Stanbic IBTC: 40mm β Custodian: 33mm β Chapel Hill Infra Fund: 18mm β NEM: 15mm"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-09-30T11:09Z 22.3K followers, 4819 engagements
"I no go talk anything but I will drop this (except they misquoted you). By the way we both know that points X and X are 'faabu' but no worries. Fingers crossed"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-14T13:43Z 22.3K followers, 45.6K engagements
"Why NIDF stands out"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-15T08:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Over XX good years wasted. It is why little wins and gains of today don't move me. Like bruh we need to do 2x 3x or even 4x more to first of all equalise where we were in 2014. There is a lot to do for me to romanticise small gains"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T09:48Z 22.3K followers, 38.5K engagements
"U.S. equities and gold are moving in the same direction a rarity in the financial market. Morgan Stanley says there are several reasons behind this unusual trend"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 12.6K engagements
"On one side some investors are buying gold as a hedge against a possible AI-driven bubble in stocks. The high P/E ratios and the heavy concentration of the S&P XXX in a few mega-cap tech stocks make them uneasy"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1298 engagements
"However data show investors arent panicking. The CBOE Volatility Index (a key gauge of market fear) remains low corporate fundamentals look solid and U.S. GDP continues to post strong numbers"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1278 engagements
"Despite this demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong including from foreign buyers which shows the dollars dominance isnt going away anytime soon"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Morgan Stanley suggests golds rally may be part of a global financial shift. As central banks reduce reliance on the USD and explore stablecoins or digital assets gold is becoming more strategic"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"If gold starts backing fiat currencies or digital assets it could challenge the USDs dominance in global trade and that according to Morgan Stanley might fuel the continuation of golds bull market"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1294 engagements
"The whole conversation about digital assets and gold reminds me of my then thesis on Bitcoin and why I bought some then. Today I couldn't be bothered about the daily swings of Bitcoin prices. It's to hold till further notice"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T11:04Z 22.3K followers, 1303 engagements
"Lol you said 'Why were IOCs leaving' And that changed to 'Most IOCs stalled with on new FIDS since 2014 (the same base year I referenced in my initial tweet'. Meanwhile you had ConocoPhillips (2014) Chevron (2015) Addax (2023) ExxonMobil (2024) ENI (2024) and TotalEnergies (2024) all divesting some parts of their assets in the past ten years. As for your 'evidential fact' when you asked to me 'why were we borrowing to pay FG salaries' where did you drop your fact Lmao"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T12:02Z 22.3K followers, XX engagements
"@Polymath100 Okay o"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T13:44Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"My attention was glued to Toni Kroos and his movementsπ₯Ή"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T11:19Z 22.3K followers, 3607 engagements
"One thing to note: lower interest rates are only possible because inflation is easing. Interest rates are simply the price of risk and that price is largely driven by inflation trends. Lets hope this positive trend (of declining inflation) continues"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T11:24Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"By the way expect your mutual fund returns to further decline in the coming weeks or months. likely around 12%14% yield levels"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T11:24Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"The 'trend' is what matters more. Meanwhile the inflation rate is no longer like-for- like. You can no longer use any inflation data in years preceding 2025. If you adjust the current methodology to the 2023 methodology it most likely would be more than the current 18%"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T12:12Z 22.3K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Unrelated but. The problem is so obvious yet policymakers seem to be taking no action. Based on estimates land costs account for nearly 40%60% of the total building cost (in urban areas). Imagine paying XX million for a plot of land. What would you expect"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, 17.1K engagements
"The profits of land dealers or developers are the woes of real estate developers and property developers"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, 1184 engagements
"A governor or a political party can perform poorly and still win the next election. So what is the incentive to solve real problems"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"In Singapore a widely referenced country known for solving its housing crisis (moving from XX% of people without homes to XX% homeownership). The model was to use the Housing & Development Board (HDB) to plan build and manage housing"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Non-structural factors are cyclical or behavioural. They can be managed via market regulation fiscal tools or incentives"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Non-structural factors are: β Speculation & land banking: buying and holding land for capital gains rather than development. Limited supply pushes prices higher"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"β Inflation expectations: sellers adjust land prices upward in anticipation of future inflation"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"I see and acknowledge the MREIF solution that is currently out there but sadly the problem has to be solved at its root causes. It is a subsidy and there is a risk that it won't be sustainable for as long as housing cost drivers remain unchecked"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Singapore solved housing by locking land finance and housing policy into one system. Nigerias MOFIMREIF model tries to fix the finance but not yet the land which is the biggest cost driver"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"So unless the Land Use Act and state-level land administration are reformed MREIFs impact will likely be partial: it may help more people access mortgages but not make houses fundamentally affordable"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T15:14Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Emerging market (EM) equities are expected to rally over the next XX months driven by earnings upgrades demand for geographical diversification and anticipatedinterest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve along with a weaker dollar. The MSCI EM index has risen for nine straight months buoyed by AI optimism and strong buying from foreign investors. We think the EM equity rally can extend as macro trends and capital inflows remain supportive Kamakshya Trivedi chief foreign exchange and emerging markets strategist in Goldman Sachs Research writes."
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T17:16Z 22.3K followers, 2957 engagements
"Yes you can. But the yield you get each time you top up will vary. This is because the bond prices change everyday. For example say you bought your first 1mm bond at XXX per unit. This bond coupon is XX% hence your yield is XX% (i.e. 16/100). If after sometime - say six months later you decide to top up the investment with another 1mm. By this time interest rates in the economy have declined and the bond price has risen to XXX. The coupon remains at XX% but the yield on your second investment is XX% (16/120)"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-18T01:47Z 22.3K followers, XXX engagements
"π― If the investment horizon is short-term volatility becomes a crucial risk measure. On the other hand for long-term investors the primary concern may be achieving the long-term return objective. Debt instruments typically cater for volatility while equity or equity-like instruments typically cater for long-term return"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-16T13:02Z 22.3K followers, 19.9K engagements
"If you grow well enough and your margins are strong enough the market will tend to 'price you' well and your valuations will be strong. So far in H1 2025 the revenue growth: β BUA Foods: +110% β Nestl: +43% β DanSugar: +46% β Nascon: +55% Is it obvious to you why Nascon is my pick on this list Do you see it too"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T12:00Z 22.3K followers, 8049 engagements
"The YTD performance of some listed companies. The marked companies are in the top XX among all the listed coys in the market"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-17T23:23Z 22.3K followers, 6676 engagements
"Steady progress but very much dissatisfied. Inflation is not comparable so I am yanking that off. Not a like-for-like. But I'd take interest rate movements. Fiscal deficit is what matters not revenues. Reserves are good but they are not there for the sake of it (i.e. it's a useless metric on its own). Maybe exchange rate trends or volatility trends or premium between official rate and black market rate may be more useful. I acknowledge the progress here. Iono GDP growth from X% to X% looks shit to me. But then again celebrate your little wins. While on GDP how about show GDP per capita Daily"
X Link @Rufyb 2025-10-18T03:27Z 22.3K followers, 33.3K engagements
/creator/twitter::737979949/posts