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[@julianHjessop](/creator/twitter/julianHjessop)
"4 change in GDP per capita since Q4 2019 (i.e. the pre-Covid peak) (the least flattering though still not as bad as Canada and Germany)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1979839876758733267) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-19T09:19Z 34.6K followers, 28.6K engagements


"Sting in the tail. "Reeves is also expected to push ahead with a mansion tax imposing capital gains on the sale of main residences for the most expensive properties" First time I've seen this but it would be madness surely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980714159810466162) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-21T19:13Z 34.6K followers, 31.1K engagements


"Some less bad news on UK inflation. The headline CPI held at XXX% in September which was at least below the XXX% plus expected by the Bank of England and the markets but still well above the MPC's X% target and the average in the euro area 👇 More analysis to follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980884212501844064) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T06:29Z 34.6K followers, 9935 engagements


"Talk that Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald will be "ousted by the end of the year" should come as no surprise. Here's what his *colleagues* said when he was appointed. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980918098971775335) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T08:44Z 34.6K followers, 5816 engagements


"By popular demand here's a chart of the IMF's forecasts for GDP growth *per capita* in 2025 and 2026 which is a better measure of changes in living standards than the headline numbers. 🤔 (I've simply ranked them by cumulative growth over the two years) (ps. it's still a mystery to me why anyone thinks the solution to the UK's problems is to copy the other underperformers notably France and Germany or even to tie us more closely to them again)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1978159094948118687) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-14T18:00Z 34.6K followers, 44K engagements


"FYI I've pulled together some of my comments on Rachel Reeves 'Brexit blame game' ahead of November's Budget. 🤔 (link in reply)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980644836173922412) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-21T14:38Z 34.6K followers, 9706 engagements


"FYI here's an updated chart showing what's actually happened to food prices in the UK and EU. 🤔 (but of course nothing will stop some people from blaming everything on Brexit 😉) (Links to original data sources in reply)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980920893699506367) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T08:55Z 34.6K followers, 115.3K engagements


"Fiendishly cunning. 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1979872700375187533) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-19T11:30Z 34.6K followers, 25.7K engagements


"2 aren't Labour claiming that they have improved the terms of the deal with the EU and reaped other Brexit benefits including the new agreements with the US and India If that's true shouldn't the OBR now be *less* pessimistic about the long-term impact 🤷♀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980196278110912884) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T08:55Z 34.6K followers, 29.9K engagements


"Frost is absolutely right to push back on this. X the X% is only a 'working assumption' about the impact on productivity over XX years X it's just a crude average of external studies not a 'calculation' by the OBR X it's not even clear that the OBR believes it any more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980611691026022676) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-21T12:26Z 34.6K followers, 25.2K engagements


"Another damning verdict on Miliband's mad plans. "If the transition continues in a way that raises costs weakens reliability and undermines growth it will fail both politically and practically the report said #NetZero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1981233089327354333) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-23T05:35Z 34.6K followers, 12.9K engagements


"@SamAndreetti Nope. You're assuming that the current housing stock is sufficient which it isn't. Private landlords increase supply by financing new builds converting properties into multiple occupancy and renting out second homes that would otherwise be empty. Banning them would backfire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1975167617963835486) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-06T11:53Z 34.6K followers, 3737 engagements


"Chart of the Day. 🤔 It's very unusual for payrolled employment not to rise - outside of pandemics. But Labour has managed it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1977981989148938315) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-14T06:17Z 34.6K followers, 46.1K engagements


"@AndrewWilliaaf What about all the other factors EU membership also has huge costs which are only likely to grow over time (BTW I often cite that LSE research myself. Even taken at face it suggests the hit to trade has been far smaller than assumed by the OBR etc.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1978468548881359073) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-15T14:30Z 34.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Heccles94 FYI this is an obviously misleading chart which has already been debunked many times. Among other things the Eurostat and UK DWP series are defined differently. If you want to compare 'like for like' try this. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1978884832739430739) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-16T18:04Z 34.6K followers, 7399 engagements


"Something for everyone in Andrew Bailey's remarks on Brexit today. 🤔 Many haven't bothered to read past the bit where he says that he expects Brexit's impact on economic growth to be negative "for the foreseeable future'". That has been the Bank line for many years and is nothing new. But he then says that "over a longer time there should be a positive albeit partial counterbalance" as trade adjusts. In fact he suggests this may already be happening. In other words even Bailey thinks the drag on growth will fade over time - not increase as many assume. Moreover note he's only talking about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1979600127573532819) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-18T17:27Z 34.6K followers, 37.4K engagements


"I think this is revealing. 🤔 Polanski admits that the main aim of the Green's wealth tax would be to reduce inequality rather than fund higher public spending (apparently they have a magic money tree for that). In practice of course it would be unlikely to achieve either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980037046841344176) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-19T22:23Z 34.6K followers, 9845 engagements


"Two problems with the 'Brexit blame game'. X even if you buy the OBR's assumption of a X% long-term hit to productivity (I don't) this is nothing new (it was first made in 2016). So how does that explain the expected downgrade in next month's Budget 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980196275871216031) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T08:55Z 34.6K followers, 38.4K engagements


"ICYMI some charts showing what's actually happened to UK GDP since Brexit. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980258868820119755) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T13:04Z 34.6K followers, 10.9K engagements


"4 a closer look at UK investment (same message: business investment stalled in the wake of the vote in 2016 but is now recovering)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980316299042623758) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T16:52Z 34.6K followers, 1286 engagements


"sources: X X X 4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980316301701849383) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T16:52Z 34.6K followers, 2738 engagements


""Penguin and Club bars can no longer be described as chocolate" Interesting variation on "shrinkflation" - cocoa content being cut as a result of rising costs. #endofdays"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980348105393574397) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T18:59Z 34.6K followers, 3286 engagements


"@JhughesMe73 @955196 Covered here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980367976038822011) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-20T20:18Z 34.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Among other things this would be a gift to the Conservatives. Even if only a few prople pay (like IHT) it would be a tax on aspiration - and freeze up the property market even further. Compare that to the Tory offer of abolishing stamp duty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980717182037213398) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-21T19:25Z 34.6K followers, 3138 engagements


"And how would it work anyway Whst will the threshold be Would it (or the gains) be inflation-indexed Can you net off renovation costs Perhaps this just yet more "kite flying" but hugely irresponsible if so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980717185623552330) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-21T19:25Z 34.6K followers, 2605 engagements


"Some takeaways. This is almost certainly the peak for inflation which should start to fall in October and return to target next year. This should allow the Bank to cut rates again. Markets think we may have to wait until February but I think next month is still in play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980888464792125460) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T06:46Z 34.6K followers, 2754 engagements


"A small sigh of relief from the Treasury too especially as the September CPI will be used to uprate working-age benefits next April. However XXX% is still much higher than the OBR expected in March so the benefit uprating will still add to the budget shortfall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980896087545397412) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T07:16Z 34.6K followers, 1966 engagements


"Big picture - the levelling out of inflation suggests that the bulk of the business cost increases in Rachel Reeves first Budget has now been passed through. But it is also consistent with weaker demand as activity stalls ahead of the next Budget in November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980901140805083259) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T07:36Z 34.6K followers, 1605 engagements


"And one for the monetarists. Broad money growth has been running at around X% for some time now which is not fast enough to sustain inflation much above X% for very long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980902969949225324) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T07:44Z 34.6K followers, 2660 engagements


"ICYMI here was my take (for the IEA) on this morning's UK inflation data. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980966521481380218) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T11:56Z 34.6K followers, 1743 engagements


"Finally Reeves has said she will try to use the November Budget to lower inflation notably by cutting energy bills. But many other government policies will still add to costs including new packaging taxes and additional red tape as a result of the Employment Rights Bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1980905491447332978) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-22T07:54Z 34.6K followers, 2030 engagements


"Two lowlights from the latest IMF forecasts. 🙄 X UK *per capita* GDP growth expected to remain among the lowest in the G7 in 2025 (0.4%) and drop to rock bottom in 2026 (0.5%) X UK inflation expected to remain the highest in the G7 in both years (averaging XXX% and 2.5%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1978125412136878553) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-14T15:47Z 34.6K followers, 66.6K engagements


"Even the expert behind Miliband's pledge to cut energy bills "by 300" has now chucked in the towel. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1981288160169480279) [@julianHjessop](/creator/x/julianHjessop) 2025-10-23T09:14Z 34.6K followers, 20.2K engagements