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[@emollick](/creator/twitter/emollick)
"ChatGPT launched less than three years ago. When I talked about AI in mid-2024 for audiences ranging from professors to Silicon Valley leaders only XX% of people had tried AI themselves. I am actually very surprised that AI adoption has been as fast as it has in enterprises"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979307279477260408) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T22:03Z 292.5K followers, 34.2K engagements


"I find it funny that a day after I post a paper it is reposted by accounts that frame the paper as "This is mind-blowing🤯" or "AI just destroyed X" or some other bombastic phrase. On one hand AI is really doing amazing stuff on the other pace your use of superlatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978155771880742995) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T17:47Z 292.5K followers, 22.9K engagements


"I wrote this piece in the Harvard Business Review in December 2022 two weeks after ChatGPT was released (its seven pages so these are the first two and last two). I think my predictions all played out though I underestimated how good they would get at accurate math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979573319121916037) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T15:40Z 292.5K followers, 17.1K engagements


"People keep talking about innovation from Bell Labs which produced XX Nobel Prize winners (11 Prizes) over XXX years. But Google now has produced X Nobel winners (3 Prizes) in less than XX years & was not subsidized by a government-enforced monopoly "  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1975609286710731056) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-07T17:08Z 292.4K followers, 120.6K engagements


"Paper showing what human work the American public thinks is morally permissible to replace with AI. Surprisingly people are already okay with AI doing XX% of occupations (if AI does it well/cheap). A floor of XX% of jobs (mostly caregiving) would be morally repugnant to replace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1975946283174256762) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-08T15:27Z 292.4K followers, 98.8K engagements


"I think people are still unprepared for a world where you cannot trust any video content despite years of warning. Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks those can be easily removed and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976004133296685165) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-08T19:17Z 292.4K followers, 45.4K engagements


"Why GPT-5 (auto) will likely route you to a GPT-5 model (there are many of them) that is less likely to do a web search and just produce answer your questions with results from the model itself. In the second prompt you are asking it to access its own "past thinking" which the model cannot do so it is likely to try to justify its results with a reference to a citation that may or may not exist but which is definitely not the source for its original answer. So you get hallucinations. In the second case GPT-5 Thinking is a better model and more agentic and thus more likely to do web searches"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976312257001783646) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-09T15:42Z 292.4K followers, 28.4K engagements


"Is there a good guide to using the AI CLI tools for non-coders Either for non-coding uses (data analysis automating work) or vibe-prototyping I dont want to have to write one myself but there are a ton of capabilities in computer use with files that would be useful for many"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976413226050212107) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-09T22:23Z 292.3K followers, 30.7K engagements


"The Claude Gmail & Google calendar plugins now work surprisingly well since Sonnet XXX came out. If you ask for a briefing and prep for tomorrow for example it not only pulls up your events but cross-references them with your email history & web search to give good insights"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976468892525695376) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-10T02:04Z 292.3K followers, 37.6K engagements


"I don't think we have a good grasp on what the future of AI will be so it would be reasonable to start thinking in scenarios: what if there is a bubble or a plateau in AI development (Not the same thing) Conversely what if the insiders saying transformative AI soon are right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976885253206859801) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-11T05:39Z 292.4K followers, 65.7K engagements


"Comparing AI ability to expert human ability in qualitative tasks like OpenAI did in GPTEval is really costly in terms of time and money. You need experts to write challenges experts to assess challenges and evaluations can take an hour plus. And then a new model comes out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978796647153860863) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T12:14Z 292.4K followers, 4107 engagements


"@mrginden They transformed accounting and finance. I think LLMs are much more generalizable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979301352980517048) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T21:39Z 292.4K followers, XXX engagements


"It seems like there is not enough of a policy response to the fact that with 57M miles of data Waymos autonomous vehicles experience XX% less serious injuries & XX% less injuries overall than cars with human drivers. XXX million are injured & 40k killed in US accidents a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1959249518194528292) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-08-23T13:41Z 292.5K followers, 1.2M engagements


"My test of any new AI video model is whether it make an otter using wifi on an airplane Here is Sora X doing a nature documentary. 80s music video. a thriller. 50s low budget SciFi film. a safety video. film noir. anime. 90s video game cutscene. French arthouse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1973220923810652523) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-01T02:58Z 292.5K followers, 191.4K engagements


"Increasingly finding pockets of deep AI use where enterprising people have figured out how to use AI to mostly automate very complex quite valuable tasks in their area of expertise. Diffusion of use cases will be slower than diffusion of AI. The future is unevenly distributed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977415102606577684) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-12T16:44Z 292.5K followers, 86.6K engagements


"I don't think people have updated enough on the capability gain in LLMs which (despite being bad at math a year ago) now dominate hard STEM contests: The International Math Olympiad the International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics International Informatics Olympiad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977460160197956089) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-12T19:43Z 292.5K followers, 106.3K engagements


"Very "640k should be enough for anyone" vibes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977605303236706487) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T05:20Z 292.5K followers, 25.6K engagements


"Here is where the graphs are from: Here is the source of the water use data: And its interpretation:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977820592859717796) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T19:35Z 292.5K followers, 28.4K engagements


""Claude. make the most recursive self-referential presentation you can imagine. seriously go big with this don't just run with your first idea revise it multiple times (ironic instruction yes)" "come on i said recursive & self-referential. improve it. (see what i did)""  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977927117212971165) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T02:39Z 292.5K followers, 92.5K engagements


"The Claude app is now a surprisingly good personal assistant. For whatever reason Sonnet XXX is much better at working with Gmail/Google Calendar than other AI even though most other models can access your email they seem to do minimal work while Claude goes much deeper/wider"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978101986357662156) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T14:13Z 292.5K followers, 62.2K engagements


"Walmart is moving very fast in AI. Amazon still seems to block ChatGPT agents from even visiting its site. Interesting reversal in agentic commerce a lesson learned from e-commerce where Amazon moved fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978130496207888717) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T16:07Z 292.5K followers, 91.1K engagements


"Of all the naming mistakes by AI labs calling what they are building datacenters is a big one. We are building the worlds largest supercomputer in your town would have been better (along with real stuff like better explaining local water & power impacts of course)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978132856879636618) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T16:16Z 292.5K followers, 63.1K engagements


"Asking AI for diverse ideas gets you diverse ideas just adding "Generate X responses with their corresponding probabilities sampled from the full distribution significantly improves quality output for large models I am still not sure we know the mechanism but useful finding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978454854583349743) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T13:36Z 292.5K followers, 88.4K engagements


"In short we are losing track of the shape of the jagged frontier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978797006978949510) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T12:15Z 292.5K followers, 12K engagements


"A lot I like & some I dont in this paper: Like: Clear definition of AGI diverse authors shows jaggedness tracking metrics over time (huge leap from GPT-4 to GPT-5) Dislike: AGI defined as replicating a model of human cognition benchmarks are scattershot narrow view of AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978874737892667718) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T17:24Z 292.5K followers, 41.9K engagements


"Claude is very good at agentic search over external knowledge. I haven't tried this variant yet but wouldn't be surprised if it represents a quite significant enterprise capability (that incidentally will have large downstream effects on SaaS vendors who want to own this piece)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978887256556405099) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T18:14Z 292.5K followers, 89.6K engagements


"Anthropic has a history of releases interesting things quietly & without much non-technical explanation. It happened again. As Simon says Claude Skills are a big deal representing both an easy path for workable agents & a step forward in what AI can do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978980638217703615) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T00:25Z 292.5K followers, 63.6K engagements


"Given a very intelligent AI that can solve very hard problems what profound question will you ask"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978995377488486803) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T01:24Z 292.5K followers, 25K engagements


"A focus on AGI (whatever it is) obscures the fact that we have increasing evidence from early results like GDPval that today's AI models are good enough to create major transformations over 5-10 years as companies figure out how to deploy them and integrate them into processes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979287090962788531) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T20:43Z 292.5K followers, 32.2K engagements


"This thread backs up my belief that fine-tuning is mostly useful in narrow situations (where it can be very valuable) but I remain skeptical that fine-tuning is the right solution for many problems for which it is being proposed. Often prompting is all you need try it first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979291926772724017) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T21:02Z 292.5K followers, 28.3K engagements


"Also LinkedIn is the social media network of the corporate world. When someone in the real world tells me I read your posts it is XX% they will say on LinkedIn XX% X (I had one BlueSky)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979558938233225334) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T14:43Z 292.5K followers, 13.8K engagements


"@Laffer123171311 I am always trying to show people where the technology is today and how much it is capable of. That can feel like hype to people who think that AI isnt useful. I dont think I have made any major wrong predictions on GenAI going all the way back to my 2023 HBR piece"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979560088378499306) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T14:47Z 292.5K followers, XXX engagements


"Lets assume vibe coding gets good enough soon for non-coders to produce workable tools to solve their problems though not enterprise-level stuff What skills should we teach people in class to take advantage of these capabilities Right now intro courses aren't geared for this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979627762903392362) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T19:16Z 292.5K followers, 75.2K engagements


"If you want to understand AGI study the humanities (I am only partially trolling - psychology is a young field computer science is younger. The brightest minds in history spent a lot of time considering what it meant to be a general intelligence that's what the humanities is)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979637468149530660) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T19:55Z 292.5K followers, 25.6K engagements


"I took the surviving syllabus of W. H. Auden's 1941 "Hardest Class in the Humanities" (6000 pages of reading memorization of poems etc.) & turned it into an annotated site with all the readings. (Would have taken hours instead it was X prompts) Here:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979689783485161728) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T23:23Z 292.5K followers, 52K engagements


"AI resources I work on that might be useful: My NY Times bestseller Co-Intelligence (now in XX languages): The Generative AI Lab at Wharton (free prompts & research): OneUsefulThing my free newsletter:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980069106855584157) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T00:30Z 292.5K followers, 21.1K engagements


"There are at least a dozen models of developers interacting with AI to code and since we don't have a taxonomy of them everything is "vibecoding" which can mean autonomous coding or 10x improvements in performance or the production of complete slop depending on who says it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980078073589661956) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T01:06Z 292.5K followers, 14.3K engagements


"I strongly suggest agreeing on concepts before any deep discussion of how AI is being used"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980079670319264010) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T01:12Z 292.5K followers, 9433 engagements


"One problem with having a lot of followers is that I can't interact with some of the weirder bits of esoteric AI experimentation happening in strange corners of X for fear of ruining them by breaking their current joking/serious superposition through too much observation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980118960205885920) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T03:48Z 292.5K followers, 14.5K engagements


"This paper shows that you can predict actual purchase intent (90% accuracy) by asking an LLM to impersonate a customer with a demographic profile giving it a product & having it give its impressions which another AI rates. No fine-tuning or training & beats classic ML methods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976656964622123141) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-10T14:31Z 292.5K followers, 896.2K engagements


"AI is apparently already accelerating science. Measuring academic publications of authors: we find that productivity among GenAI users rose by XX percent in 2023 relative to non-users and further increased to XX percent in 2024 and the quality of publications also went up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977073589406122443) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-11T18:07Z 292.5K followers, 196.5K engagements


"On AI & water looks like all US data center usage (not just AI) ranges from 628M gallons a day (counting evaporation from dam reservoirs used for hydro-power) to 200-275M with power but not dam evaporation to 50M for cooling alone So not nothing but also a lot less than golf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977819572209430702) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T19:31Z 292.5K followers, 63K engagements


"Every few months there is a hot story of how AI is going to go away soon: model collapse walls to AI development legal issues now bubbles. But even if there was a bubble that popped AI would not go away: XX% of humans use it weekly increasing use cases in companies etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978324615110820072) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T04:58Z 292.5K followers, 33.1K engagements


"Veo XXX same prompt also best of X. You can see real (but somewhat incremental) improvements here including more of a sense of physicality & better reflections. Not perfect though the otter is holding the phone wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978465589233328256) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T14:18Z 292.5K followers, 46K engagements


"I hope as we move past the first wave of AI criticism ("it doesn't work all hype") we get a new wave of AI criticism rooted in the fact that these systems are very powerful & quite useful and focusing a deep exploration of when AI uses are uplifting and when they are detrimental"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978966933429973313) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T23:30Z 292.5K followers, 74.8K engagements


"AI video models may not be complete world models but they are oddly capable of fairly sophisticated (if flawed) "simulations" of novel situations. Veo 3.1: "three toy ships one made of iron the other of wood and one out of loosely packed sugar fall into a pool of water""  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980126684306424155) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T04:19Z 292.5K followers, 16.3K engagements


"I will try to find some examples people are (1) willing to share and (2) would make sense to non-subject matter experts. Feel free to share yours in the thread"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977420302696210893) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-12T17:05Z 292.4K followers, 24.2K engagements


"@NickADobos I don't want /compact. I am okay with a rolling context window like other models use"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977605814048501839) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T05:22Z 292.5K followers, 10.5K engagements


"@radicalbyte The 200-275M includes power usage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977826414473912479) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T19:58Z 292.5K followers, XXX engagements


"In general Gemini XXX Pro is a very capable model but it lags behind GPT-5 Thinking Extended/Heavy* and Claude Sonnet XXX in agentic ability & tool use in the chat UX. A key gap for any Gemini XXX to fill. * GPT-5 was supposed to solve the naming confusion but _()_/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1975378505493053859) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-07T01:51Z 292.5K followers, 48.2K engagements


"New randomized controlled trial of students using GPT-4 as a tutor in Nigeria. X weeks of after-school AI tutoring = X years of typical learning gains outperforming XX% of other educational interventions. And it helped all students especially girls who were initially behind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1879633485004165375) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-01-15T20:55Z 292.5K followers, 4.3M engagements


"I wrote about the era of Mass Intelligence. GPT-5 and Google's Nano Banana are examples of how advanced AI is now making their way to far more users at scale as both performance and efficiency keep improving. We are going to see a lot of weird things happening all at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1961169796491329653) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-08-28T20:51Z 292.5K followers, 147.2K engagements


"We are starting to see some nuanced discussions of what it means to work with advanced AI In this case GPT-5 Pro was able to do novel math but only when guided by a math professor (though the paper also noted the speed of advance since GPT-4). The reflection is worth reading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1964447221853966775) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-09-06T21:54Z 292.5K followers, 529.4K engagements


"Claude's new ability to work with Excel files is the best I have seen so far I have given it existing spreadsheets to work with and asked it to create new ones. Good use of formatting formulas etc. It created all of this including XXX formulas from one prompt (& its solid)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1965608685297922315) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-09-10T02:50Z 292.5K followers, 288.1K engagements


"Some new theoretical economics papers looking at the implications of AGI. These two papers argue that a true AGI-level AI (equivalent to a human genius) if achieved would eventually displace most human labor and reduce the economic value of remaining human work to near-zero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1969482313286234419) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-09-20T19:22Z 292.5K followers, 391.8K engagements


"Since someone asked I think blocking people on X is a important part of staying sane here Disagreements are fine but I block people who are insulting or who encourage other people to be insulting for example. Otherwise social media will make you feel bad & angry all the time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976459489487487246) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-10T01:27Z 292.5K followers, 58.3K engagements


"On one hand: don't anthropomorphize AI. On the other: LLMs exhibit signs of gambling addiction. The more autonomy they were given the more risks the LLMs took. They exhibit gambler's fallacy loss-chasing illusion of control. A cautionary note for using LLMs for investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1976515382098936295) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-10T05:09Z 292.5K followers, 204.7K engagements


"A lot of problems with AI discourse are because "being good at AI" (called Theory of Mind in this paper) is a skill that seems to be independent of "being great at your job" So you have amazing experts who gain from AI and others who do not and they don't understand each other"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977581271019856099) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T03:44Z 292.5K followers, 102K engagements


"Claude's unwillingness to continue conversations after the context window is full is very frustrating. I am okay losing early context if I am working interactively on a project & making progress I am not okay with suddenly being cut off and being forced to start a new chat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977604962772512800) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T05:18Z 292.5K followers, 228.4K engagements


"This relatively short essay by @jackclarkSF is a good indicator of the attitude of many people inside the AI labs and what they think is happening right now in AI development. You do not have to believe him of course but it is worth noting:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977776571843850241) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-13T16:40Z 292.5K followers, 134.8K engagements


"I dont have much to add to the bubble discussion but the this time is different argument is in part based on the sincere belief of many at the AI labs that there is a race to superintelligence & the winner gets. everything. It is a key dynamic that is not discussed much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1977977082744279420) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-14T05:57Z 292.5K followers, 80.7K engagements


"One of the first randomized controlled trials testing whether GenAI boosts revenue not just productivity. It does. A large mature ecommerce platform using older GenAI tools found most of them from customer service to marketing tools led to large significant revenue boosts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978476048506605658) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T15:00Z 292.5K followers, 55.4K engagements


"I see re-skilling proposed as a solution to the potential of AI-driven changes to employment. Leaving aside the fact that re-skilling is tough to do well I have heard less on what skills should people being taught for what jobs Working with AI is not a full enough answer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978555682665234555) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T20:16Z 292.5K followers, 94K engagements


"Since a lot of my followers are outside the AI bubble it is worth reading what the Senior Policy Advisor on AI to the White House is thinking about AI safety (and good that he shares it publicly)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978572999188959727) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-15T21:25Z 292.5K followers, 52.3K engagements


"It is hard to keep up with the need to measure frontier AI ability. Leave aside the fact that many papers (including some of mine) use GPT-4 (science takes time) good testing is just hard. Like if you wanted to test AI story writing with expert evaluation that is expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978796026971504934) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T12:11Z 292.5K followers, 23.6K engagements


"Talking about the ethics of AI companies or personalities or discussing the potential of financial bubbles can be valuable but it isn't really what I mean AI capabilities are real they are here to stay & we need to move the discussion to thinking more about what this means"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978967636462514180) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-16T23:33Z 292.5K followers, 14.1K engagements


"We should have called it Steve or Kate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978995932726178113) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T01:26Z 292.5K followers, 12.8K engagements


"The comments are going to be a fun mix between people who take the question seriously (and it is an important question) and those who read the screenshots"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1978996621481238915) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-17T01:28Z 292.5K followers, 11.9K engagements


"The daily hype-and-doom AI swings on X like so many other X things does not reflect the real world. In companies I talk to no one is following new developments or thinking of AGI. There is a steady accumulation of valuable use cases & efforts to adjust processes to get more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979555519041049057) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T14:29Z 292.5K followers, 33.2K engagements


"This is where I am most sympathetic to the AI is normal technology view: leaders are not watching the ability curve for AI they are working with internal teams and external vendors to find uses for todays AI increasingly those uses are valuable but require time and work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1979557528783786014) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-18T14:37Z 292.5K followers, 11.1K engagements


"This is not perfect but it also doesn't seem like a model trained on video should be able to get so many details of the dynamics right: "honey pours down a marble statue of a toucan the nose cracks and falls off""  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980128284294938661) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T04:25Z 292.5K followers, 10.4K engagements


"Sora X Pro is very impressive in my tests but really needs its own interface - using a storyboard maker shoved inside a video creation tool shoved inside of a drafts folder of a social media app is awkward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/emollick/status/1980132516406473126) [@emollick](/creator/x/emollick) 2025-10-20T04:42Z 292.5K followers, 12.8K engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@emollick "ChatGPT launched less than three years ago. When I talked about AI in mid-2024 for audiences ranging from professors to Silicon Valley leaders only XX% of people had tried AI themselves. I am actually very surprised that AI adoption has been as fast as it has in enterprises"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T22:03Z 292.5K followers, 34.2K engagements

"I find it funny that a day after I post a paper it is reposted by accounts that frame the paper as "This is mind-blowing🤯" or "AI just destroyed X" or some other bombastic phrase. On one hand AI is really doing amazing stuff on the other pace your use of superlatives"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T17:47Z 292.5K followers, 22.9K engagements

"I wrote this piece in the Harvard Business Review in December 2022 two weeks after ChatGPT was released (its seven pages so these are the first two and last two). I think my predictions all played out though I underestimated how good they would get at accurate math"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T15:40Z 292.5K followers, 17.1K engagements

"People keep talking about innovation from Bell Labs which produced XX Nobel Prize winners (11 Prizes) over XXX years. But Google now has produced X Nobel winners (3 Prizes) in less than XX years & was not subsidized by a government-enforced monopoly "
X Link @emollick 2025-10-07T17:08Z 292.4K followers, 120.6K engagements

"Paper showing what human work the American public thinks is morally permissible to replace with AI. Surprisingly people are already okay with AI doing XX% of occupations (if AI does it well/cheap). A floor of XX% of jobs (mostly caregiving) would be morally repugnant to replace"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-08T15:27Z 292.4K followers, 98.8K engagements

"I think people are still unprepared for a world where you cannot trust any video content despite years of warning. Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks those can be easily removed and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-08T19:17Z 292.4K followers, 45.4K engagements

"Why GPT-5 (auto) will likely route you to a GPT-5 model (there are many of them) that is less likely to do a web search and just produce answer your questions with results from the model itself. In the second prompt you are asking it to access its own "past thinking" which the model cannot do so it is likely to try to justify its results with a reference to a citation that may or may not exist but which is definitely not the source for its original answer. So you get hallucinations. In the second case GPT-5 Thinking is a better model and more agentic and thus more likely to do web searches"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-09T15:42Z 292.4K followers, 28.4K engagements

"Is there a good guide to using the AI CLI tools for non-coders Either for non-coding uses (data analysis automating work) or vibe-prototyping I dont want to have to write one myself but there are a ton of capabilities in computer use with files that would be useful for many"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-09T22:23Z 292.3K followers, 30.7K engagements

"The Claude Gmail & Google calendar plugins now work surprisingly well since Sonnet XXX came out. If you ask for a briefing and prep for tomorrow for example it not only pulls up your events but cross-references them with your email history & web search to give good insights"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-10T02:04Z 292.3K followers, 37.6K engagements

"I don't think we have a good grasp on what the future of AI will be so it would be reasonable to start thinking in scenarios: what if there is a bubble or a plateau in AI development (Not the same thing) Conversely what if the insiders saying transformative AI soon are right"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-11T05:39Z 292.4K followers, 65.7K engagements

"Comparing AI ability to expert human ability in qualitative tasks like OpenAI did in GPTEval is really costly in terms of time and money. You need experts to write challenges experts to assess challenges and evaluations can take an hour plus. And then a new model comes out"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T12:14Z 292.4K followers, 4107 engagements

"@mrginden They transformed accounting and finance. I think LLMs are much more generalizable"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T21:39Z 292.4K followers, XXX engagements

"It seems like there is not enough of a policy response to the fact that with 57M miles of data Waymos autonomous vehicles experience XX% less serious injuries & XX% less injuries overall than cars with human drivers. XXX million are injured & 40k killed in US accidents a year"
X Link @emollick 2025-08-23T13:41Z 292.5K followers, 1.2M engagements

"My test of any new AI video model is whether it make an otter using wifi on an airplane Here is Sora X doing a nature documentary. 80s music video. a thriller. 50s low budget SciFi film. a safety video. film noir. anime. 90s video game cutscene. French arthouse"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-01T02:58Z 292.5K followers, 191.4K engagements

"Increasingly finding pockets of deep AI use where enterprising people have figured out how to use AI to mostly automate very complex quite valuable tasks in their area of expertise. Diffusion of use cases will be slower than diffusion of AI. The future is unevenly distributed"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-12T16:44Z 292.5K followers, 86.6K engagements

"I don't think people have updated enough on the capability gain in LLMs which (despite being bad at math a year ago) now dominate hard STEM contests: The International Math Olympiad the International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics International Informatics Olympiad"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-12T19:43Z 292.5K followers, 106.3K engagements

"Very "640k should be enough for anyone" vibes"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T05:20Z 292.5K followers, 25.6K engagements

"Here is where the graphs are from: Here is the source of the water use data: And its interpretation:"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T19:35Z 292.5K followers, 28.4K engagements

""Claude. make the most recursive self-referential presentation you can imagine. seriously go big with this don't just run with your first idea revise it multiple times (ironic instruction yes)" "come on i said recursive & self-referential. improve it. (see what i did)""
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T02:39Z 292.5K followers, 92.5K engagements

"The Claude app is now a surprisingly good personal assistant. For whatever reason Sonnet XXX is much better at working with Gmail/Google Calendar than other AI even though most other models can access your email they seem to do minimal work while Claude goes much deeper/wider"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T14:13Z 292.5K followers, 62.2K engagements

"Walmart is moving very fast in AI. Amazon still seems to block ChatGPT agents from even visiting its site. Interesting reversal in agentic commerce a lesson learned from e-commerce where Amazon moved fast"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T16:07Z 292.5K followers, 91.1K engagements

"Of all the naming mistakes by AI labs calling what they are building datacenters is a big one. We are building the worlds largest supercomputer in your town would have been better (along with real stuff like better explaining local water & power impacts of course)"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T16:16Z 292.5K followers, 63.1K engagements

"Asking AI for diverse ideas gets you diverse ideas just adding "Generate X responses with their corresponding probabilities sampled from the full distribution significantly improves quality output for large models I am still not sure we know the mechanism but useful finding"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T13:36Z 292.5K followers, 88.4K engagements

"In short we are losing track of the shape of the jagged frontier"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T12:15Z 292.5K followers, 12K engagements

"A lot I like & some I dont in this paper: Like: Clear definition of AGI diverse authors shows jaggedness tracking metrics over time (huge leap from GPT-4 to GPT-5) Dislike: AGI defined as replicating a model of human cognition benchmarks are scattershot narrow view of AI"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T17:24Z 292.5K followers, 41.9K engagements

"Claude is very good at agentic search over external knowledge. I haven't tried this variant yet but wouldn't be surprised if it represents a quite significant enterprise capability (that incidentally will have large downstream effects on SaaS vendors who want to own this piece)"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T18:14Z 292.5K followers, 89.6K engagements

"Anthropic has a history of releases interesting things quietly & without much non-technical explanation. It happened again. As Simon says Claude Skills are a big deal representing both an easy path for workable agents & a step forward in what AI can do"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T00:25Z 292.5K followers, 63.6K engagements

"Given a very intelligent AI that can solve very hard problems what profound question will you ask"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T01:24Z 292.5K followers, 25K engagements

"A focus on AGI (whatever it is) obscures the fact that we have increasing evidence from early results like GDPval that today's AI models are good enough to create major transformations over 5-10 years as companies figure out how to deploy them and integrate them into processes"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T20:43Z 292.5K followers, 32.2K engagements

"This thread backs up my belief that fine-tuning is mostly useful in narrow situations (where it can be very valuable) but I remain skeptical that fine-tuning is the right solution for many problems for which it is being proposed. Often prompting is all you need try it first"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T21:02Z 292.5K followers, 28.3K engagements

"Also LinkedIn is the social media network of the corporate world. When someone in the real world tells me I read your posts it is XX% they will say on LinkedIn XX% X (I had one BlueSky)"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T14:43Z 292.5K followers, 13.8K engagements

"@Laffer123171311 I am always trying to show people where the technology is today and how much it is capable of. That can feel like hype to people who think that AI isnt useful. I dont think I have made any major wrong predictions on GenAI going all the way back to my 2023 HBR piece"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T14:47Z 292.5K followers, XXX engagements

"Lets assume vibe coding gets good enough soon for non-coders to produce workable tools to solve their problems though not enterprise-level stuff What skills should we teach people in class to take advantage of these capabilities Right now intro courses aren't geared for this"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T19:16Z 292.5K followers, 75.2K engagements

"If you want to understand AGI study the humanities (I am only partially trolling - psychology is a young field computer science is younger. The brightest minds in history spent a lot of time considering what it meant to be a general intelligence that's what the humanities is)"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T19:55Z 292.5K followers, 25.6K engagements

"I took the surviving syllabus of W. H. Auden's 1941 "Hardest Class in the Humanities" (6000 pages of reading memorization of poems etc.) & turned it into an annotated site with all the readings. (Would have taken hours instead it was X prompts) Here:"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T23:23Z 292.5K followers, 52K engagements

"AI resources I work on that might be useful: My NY Times bestseller Co-Intelligence (now in XX languages): The Generative AI Lab at Wharton (free prompts & research): OneUsefulThing my free newsletter:"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T00:30Z 292.5K followers, 21.1K engagements

"There are at least a dozen models of developers interacting with AI to code and since we don't have a taxonomy of them everything is "vibecoding" which can mean autonomous coding or 10x improvements in performance or the production of complete slop depending on who says it"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T01:06Z 292.5K followers, 14.3K engagements

"I strongly suggest agreeing on concepts before any deep discussion of how AI is being used"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T01:12Z 292.5K followers, 9433 engagements

"One problem with having a lot of followers is that I can't interact with some of the weirder bits of esoteric AI experimentation happening in strange corners of X for fear of ruining them by breaking their current joking/serious superposition through too much observation"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T03:48Z 292.5K followers, 14.5K engagements

"This paper shows that you can predict actual purchase intent (90% accuracy) by asking an LLM to impersonate a customer with a demographic profile giving it a product & having it give its impressions which another AI rates. No fine-tuning or training & beats classic ML methods"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-10T14:31Z 292.5K followers, 896.2K engagements

"AI is apparently already accelerating science. Measuring academic publications of authors: we find that productivity among GenAI users rose by XX percent in 2023 relative to non-users and further increased to XX percent in 2024 and the quality of publications also went up"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-11T18:07Z 292.5K followers, 196.5K engagements

"On AI & water looks like all US data center usage (not just AI) ranges from 628M gallons a day (counting evaporation from dam reservoirs used for hydro-power) to 200-275M with power but not dam evaporation to 50M for cooling alone So not nothing but also a lot less than golf"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T19:31Z 292.5K followers, 63K engagements

"Every few months there is a hot story of how AI is going to go away soon: model collapse walls to AI development legal issues now bubbles. But even if there was a bubble that popped AI would not go away: XX% of humans use it weekly increasing use cases in companies etc"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T04:58Z 292.5K followers, 33.1K engagements

"Veo XXX same prompt also best of X. You can see real (but somewhat incremental) improvements here including more of a sense of physicality & better reflections. Not perfect though the otter is holding the phone wrong"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T14:18Z 292.5K followers, 46K engagements

"I hope as we move past the first wave of AI criticism ("it doesn't work all hype") we get a new wave of AI criticism rooted in the fact that these systems are very powerful & quite useful and focusing a deep exploration of when AI uses are uplifting and when they are detrimental"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T23:30Z 292.5K followers, 74.8K engagements

"AI video models may not be complete world models but they are oddly capable of fairly sophisticated (if flawed) "simulations" of novel situations. Veo 3.1: "three toy ships one made of iron the other of wood and one out of loosely packed sugar fall into a pool of water""
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T04:19Z 292.5K followers, 16.3K engagements

"I will try to find some examples people are (1) willing to share and (2) would make sense to non-subject matter experts. Feel free to share yours in the thread"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-12T17:05Z 292.4K followers, 24.2K engagements

"@NickADobos I don't want /compact. I am okay with a rolling context window like other models use"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T05:22Z 292.5K followers, 10.5K engagements

"@radicalbyte The 200-275M includes power usage"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T19:58Z 292.5K followers, XXX engagements

"In general Gemini XXX Pro is a very capable model but it lags behind GPT-5 Thinking Extended/Heavy* and Claude Sonnet XXX in agentic ability & tool use in the chat UX. A key gap for any Gemini XXX to fill. * GPT-5 was supposed to solve the naming confusion but ()/"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-07T01:51Z 292.5K followers, 48.2K engagements

"New randomized controlled trial of students using GPT-4 as a tutor in Nigeria. X weeks of after-school AI tutoring = X years of typical learning gains outperforming XX% of other educational interventions. And it helped all students especially girls who were initially behind"
X Link @emollick 2025-01-15T20:55Z 292.5K followers, 4.3M engagements

"I wrote about the era of Mass Intelligence. GPT-5 and Google's Nano Banana are examples of how advanced AI is now making their way to far more users at scale as both performance and efficiency keep improving. We are going to see a lot of weird things happening all at once"
X Link @emollick 2025-08-28T20:51Z 292.5K followers, 147.2K engagements

"We are starting to see some nuanced discussions of what it means to work with advanced AI In this case GPT-5 Pro was able to do novel math but only when guided by a math professor (though the paper also noted the speed of advance since GPT-4). The reflection is worth reading"
X Link @emollick 2025-09-06T21:54Z 292.5K followers, 529.4K engagements

"Claude's new ability to work with Excel files is the best I have seen so far I have given it existing spreadsheets to work with and asked it to create new ones. Good use of formatting formulas etc. It created all of this including XXX formulas from one prompt (& its solid)"
X Link @emollick 2025-09-10T02:50Z 292.5K followers, 288.1K engagements

"Some new theoretical economics papers looking at the implications of AGI. These two papers argue that a true AGI-level AI (equivalent to a human genius) if achieved would eventually displace most human labor and reduce the economic value of remaining human work to near-zero"
X Link @emollick 2025-09-20T19:22Z 292.5K followers, 391.8K engagements

"Since someone asked I think blocking people on X is a important part of staying sane here Disagreements are fine but I block people who are insulting or who encourage other people to be insulting for example. Otherwise social media will make you feel bad & angry all the time"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-10T01:27Z 292.5K followers, 58.3K engagements

"On one hand: don't anthropomorphize AI. On the other: LLMs exhibit signs of gambling addiction. The more autonomy they were given the more risks the LLMs took. They exhibit gambler's fallacy loss-chasing illusion of control. A cautionary note for using LLMs for investing"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-10T05:09Z 292.5K followers, 204.7K engagements

"A lot of problems with AI discourse are because "being good at AI" (called Theory of Mind in this paper) is a skill that seems to be independent of "being great at your job" So you have amazing experts who gain from AI and others who do not and they don't understand each other"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T03:44Z 292.5K followers, 102K engagements

"Claude's unwillingness to continue conversations after the context window is full is very frustrating. I am okay losing early context if I am working interactively on a project & making progress I am not okay with suddenly being cut off and being forced to start a new chat"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T05:18Z 292.5K followers, 228.4K engagements

"This relatively short essay by @jackclarkSF is a good indicator of the attitude of many people inside the AI labs and what they think is happening right now in AI development. You do not have to believe him of course but it is worth noting:"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-13T16:40Z 292.5K followers, 134.8K engagements

"I dont have much to add to the bubble discussion but the this time is different argument is in part based on the sincere belief of many at the AI labs that there is a race to superintelligence & the winner gets. everything. It is a key dynamic that is not discussed much"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-14T05:57Z 292.5K followers, 80.7K engagements

"One of the first randomized controlled trials testing whether GenAI boosts revenue not just productivity. It does. A large mature ecommerce platform using older GenAI tools found most of them from customer service to marketing tools led to large significant revenue boosts"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T15:00Z 292.5K followers, 55.4K engagements

"I see re-skilling proposed as a solution to the potential of AI-driven changes to employment. Leaving aside the fact that re-skilling is tough to do well I have heard less on what skills should people being taught for what jobs Working with AI is not a full enough answer"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T20:16Z 292.5K followers, 94K engagements

"Since a lot of my followers are outside the AI bubble it is worth reading what the Senior Policy Advisor on AI to the White House is thinking about AI safety (and good that he shares it publicly)"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-15T21:25Z 292.5K followers, 52.3K engagements

"It is hard to keep up with the need to measure frontier AI ability. Leave aside the fact that many papers (including some of mine) use GPT-4 (science takes time) good testing is just hard. Like if you wanted to test AI story writing with expert evaluation that is expensive"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T12:11Z 292.5K followers, 23.6K engagements

"Talking about the ethics of AI companies or personalities or discussing the potential of financial bubbles can be valuable but it isn't really what I mean AI capabilities are real they are here to stay & we need to move the discussion to thinking more about what this means"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-16T23:33Z 292.5K followers, 14.1K engagements

"We should have called it Steve or Kate"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T01:26Z 292.5K followers, 12.8K engagements

"The comments are going to be a fun mix between people who take the question seriously (and it is an important question) and those who read the screenshots"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-17T01:28Z 292.5K followers, 11.9K engagements

"The daily hype-and-doom AI swings on X like so many other X things does not reflect the real world. In companies I talk to no one is following new developments or thinking of AGI. There is a steady accumulation of valuable use cases & efforts to adjust processes to get more"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T14:29Z 292.5K followers, 33.2K engagements

"This is where I am most sympathetic to the AI is normal technology view: leaders are not watching the ability curve for AI they are working with internal teams and external vendors to find uses for todays AI increasingly those uses are valuable but require time and work"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-18T14:37Z 292.5K followers, 11.1K engagements

"This is not perfect but it also doesn't seem like a model trained on video should be able to get so many details of the dynamics right: "honey pours down a marble statue of a toucan the nose cracks and falls off""
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T04:25Z 292.5K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Sora X Pro is very impressive in my tests but really needs its own interface - using a storyboard maker shoved inside a video creation tool shoved inside of a drafts folder of a social media app is awkward"
X Link @emollick 2025-10-20T04:42Z 292.5K followers, 12.8K engagements

creator/twitter::39125788/posts
/creator/twitter::39125788/posts