[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@nntaleb](/creator/twitter/nntaleb) "My most important paper ever: How uncertainty (errors on errors) fattens the tails. Connects to all epistemological traditions. w/@DrCirillo Pages 1-4" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1974076563596710213) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-03T11:38Z 1.1M followers, 271.4K engagements "Lies likely the "$7K Bibi" Hasbara at work. I walk around Amman with a cross the size of Minneapolis & nobody has ever bothered me. There are even North Arabian tribes (Haddadin) in Jordan that are Christian & were never pushed to convert in the past 1400 years" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976998108988068187) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T13:07Z 1.1M followers, 290.8K engagements "Finally cardiologists are becoming aware of the Lp(a) flaw but still unable to fix risk factors. No point lowering LDL(ApoB) below 100(equiv) for primary prevention for negative Lp(a); one must overreact for high Lp(a)" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977353057609359692) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-12T12:38Z 1.1M followers, 183.8K engagements "My critique: IQ psychologists are stat-ignorant bullshitters it explains less than X % of success (only predicts mental detardation). Their response: proves IQ psychologists are stat-ignorant bullshitters" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1973434344674136436) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-01T17:06Z 1.1M followers, 235.8K engagements "It is not an involution (self-inverse): if I wrote the book slowly & by walking slowly the reader does not have to read it slowly" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1974593154579124614) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-04T21:51Z 1.1M followers, 197.1K engagements "When 1) you only respect scholarly rigor 2) come from a Christian community that survived (even thrived) under Islam for XX C 3) are avid reader of history in the ORIGINAL languages you can be allergic to charlatans like @KonstantinKisin w/Netanyahu propaganda clickers. Note the "dhimmi" fictions promoted by Zionists like Bat Ye'or is crap --it paid to be Christian & sometimes pay lower taxes than Muslims & often lower taxes than under the Byzantines. See my piece on conversion & the minority rule" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975602312958910748) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-07T16:41Z 1.1M followers, 186.4K engagements "I don't know if things got better for @CharlesMurray but it takes some erudition to write about religion something he seriously lacks. Scumbag made XX mistakes in a single page on his book on the "West". I didn't bring it up in debate & he paid be back with ingratitude" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976991945147973869) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T12:43Z 1.1M followers, 123.7K engagements "You can think it is a good idea to be long silver (I have been for a long time). But it is a mistake to think that it is in the "same asset class" as gold. Why Central Banks are not accumulating silver. (It may correlate weakly but the substitution is weak.)" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977709925095604330) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T12:16Z 1.1M followers, 276.7K engagements "Hasbara Fake News du jour: Retardito @craigiskowitz Ottomans were not into forced conversions. Serbia/Romania/Bulgaria/Roumeli etc. stayed Orthodox. This was a brutal POLITICAL punitive putting down of an uprising using pre-Islamic Persian punishment methods" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977892645792805178) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-14T00:22Z 1.1M followers, 109.7K engagements "No matter what you say about Trump no matter Biden" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977550646212518004) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T01:43Z 1.1M followers, 246.9K engagements "Game theory is an amuse-mind for people who never had a real job" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979171948170019107) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-17T13:05Z 1.1M followers, 298.6K engagements "For the past 9m every time I've seen Trump or any of his myrmidons making an economics statement has prompted me to buy gold-- irresistibly. The solution may be to block all news except for bicycle information. I need to reduce" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1970844674777649455) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-24T13:36Z 1.1M followers, 154.3K engagements "Looks like things changed after Trump's U.N. meeting with Arabs. His animal instinct detected that they gave him a natural respect. There was mutual trust & common interest. In contrast Netanyahu exuded distrust particularly that Israelis walk around like they own America" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1974592171304206553) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-04T21:47Z 1.1M followers, 129.1K engagements "Note: Southern Levant: Judaism/Samaritanism (mostly) & Paganism =Christianity Other Parts: Paganism ("Hellenism" in West other in East) =Christianity" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975566517749358994) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-07T14:18Z 1.1M followers, 98.2K engagements "A Palestinian whose family was ethnically cleansed from Gaza in 1948 won the Nobel Prize. He was lucky 1srael did not kill him as they routinely do with skilled Palestinians" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975953642231587019) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T15:57Z 1.1M followers, 520.1K engagements "Although Grok is somewhat controlled by you know who they cannot fully control its output (too many degrees of freedom). "Bibi trolls" go on my threads sowing doubt by claiming it is "nonsense" hoping it would dilute the effect" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978073840514146566) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-14T12:22Z 1.1M followers, 31.3K engagements "Many believe that someone coming from the private sector will be business-minded & not bureaucratic. No You get a salary (not a commission/cut) = you are a bureaucrat. CEOs are the most bureaucratic even those on incentive WORSE than government bureaucrats" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978801501079322978) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-16T12:33Z 1.1M followers, 251.3K engagements "Libertarians are fundamentally against bailing out U.S. companies with U.S. taxpayer funds & backstop. But how about bailing out a foreign country (with U.S. taxpayer funds & backstop) BECAUSE it has a libertarian president" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979256840903950660) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-17T18:42Z 1.1M followers, 241.9K engagements "People who never had a real job don't know that they never had a real job" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979575468941598828) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-18T15:49Z 1.1M followers, 253.3K engagements "TRUE WEALTH (3rd Ed) Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Genuine sense you did your duty toward the Palestinians & other victims Absence of envy Foamy coffee Crusty bread Trustworthy friends & inexperienced enemies Frequent smiles No meals alone Nice clothes in evening (& Sunday lunch) No friends w/hypochondria No gym classes Gravel bicycling Good digestive functions No Zoom "meetings" No chronic medication Periodic surprises Nothing to hide: financial and fiscal tranquility Muscular strength & endurance Ability to nap Access to a hammock" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979651428038672799) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-18T20:50Z 1.1M followers, 286.1K engagements "4) Interest rates vs inflation. Cryptoheads and techies think in labels no clue about finance. #Idiots" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1613208868145844224) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2023-01-11T16:19Z 1.1M followers, 98.2K engagements "Prigozhin's training is X y in a Soviet prison running a ring of thieves as a teenager. He sat in the front line like earlier time warriors. By comparison Putin is a poseur working on his image like Twitter gym bros. Russians can detect who's real & who's not. --- See my "surgeons don't look like surgeons"" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1672720519647338498) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2023-06-24T21:37Z 1.1M followers, 931.6K engagements "How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1806118775319560525) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2024-06-27T00:14Z 1.1M followers, 158.2K engagements "You want to be an author Be fearless. Be incorruptible. Be uncompromising but nuanced. Ignore your readers' preferences or opinions. You are not delivering summer fashion moccasins. If they don't like the stuff fuck them" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1898553236988088499) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-03-09T01:55Z 1.1M followers, 204.6K engagements "Anyone w/decent skills in discrete mathematics & combinatorics (capable of proving a theorem) & w/geometric intuitions shd be capable of raising their IQ test scores 150-160 by dint of training GRE-style without increasing their intellect a bit. IQ is a fraud" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1899217084145660354) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-03-10T21:53Z 1.1M followers, 183.6K engagements "This cyclist friend of mine who asks me to post on X on his behalf (he is shy) got a call from the lover of the now married ex-mistress of his dermatologist to let him know that he is going to vote against Trump at the midterm elections. He will also take Tylenol next accident" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1971220827350970710) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-25T14:30Z 1.1M followers, 62.2K engagements "I am optimistic about the following. Indicted war criminal Netanyahu is still using his Hasbara v. 1971. Censorship & propaganda work only when invisible as we learned from the Soviet Union. Furthermore things work in reverse: if fuels conspiracy theories" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1971931079604162857) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-27T13:33Z 1.1M followers, 170.9K engagements "The introduction to my paper on data hacking particularly p-hacking. For comments" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1973476410993025503) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-01T19:53Z 1.1M followers, 95.1K engagements "Total nonsense. Jesus is orders of magnitude more connected (both by blood and culture) to present-day Palestinians than to Mileikowski. This is a historical continuum of locally evolved cultures. @DineshDSouza is a propagandist with poor historical understanding" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975918822361379010) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T13:38Z 1.1M followers, 165K engagements "@VO2_maximum Let us know when they start buying. So far it is speculators like me who own SLV" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977738462032691537) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T14:09Z 1.1M followers, 9551 engagements "@EdwardIanKearns Retardo $XX million is something I wd buy not a central bank" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977836350855663689) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T20:38Z 1.1M followers, 3492 engagements "ChatGPT is a statistical representation of things found on the web which will increasingly include ITS OWN output (directly and second hand). You post something picked up from it & it will use it to reinforce its own knowledge. Progressively a self-licking lollipop. Enjoy #AI" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1660304315217584128) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2023-05-21T15:19Z 1.1M followers, 1.3M engagements "Dear enemiesThe Black Swan is now the most influential (that is discussed/mentioned) 21st C book. While almost all books have a half-life between X and X months it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy Same with other X books in the Incerto. Graph is US only" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1818310539199627334) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2024-07-30T15:39Z 1.1M followers, 6.1M engagements "Gaza is the second intellectual shock I've had in my life: it shows the prevalence of psychopaths among otherwise well-functioning seemingly civilized people. Few people are genuinely virtuous; they just act that way under the minority rule of the truly virtuous" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1917602097056424097) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-04-30T15:29Z 1.1M followers, 367.2K engagements "RIP Pope Francis. He was genuinely truly compassionate and virtuous" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1917608353158631808) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-04-30T15:53Z 1.1M followers, 59K engagements "The True ancestors of Palestinians created Judaism Christianity and produced dozens of Greco-Roman authors: Isidorus of Gaza Aeneas of Gaza Procopius of Gaza Marinus of Neapolis (Nablus) Procopius of Caesarea Timotheus of Gaza etc. etc. cc:@DalrympleWill (note :race-obsessed@primalpoly is of both low intelligence AND low erudition)" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1959964025363587178) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-08-25T13:00Z 1.1M followers, 272.8K engagements "The ability to know what you can't predict and work with unpredictability is the best measure of intelligence. (Fooled by Randomness Chapter on Philostratus)" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1963909612677005580) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-05T10:18Z 1.1M followers, 387.7K engagements "Vastly More Effective Options: 1- Buy a Ferrari (or a Porsche if very poor) 2- Get a couple of bespoke Brioni suits get them slightly rumpled 3- Suede shoes even in the summer 4- Train to talk to her as if it were about her not you 5- Write a bad novel 6- Make her smile" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1965134501094531317) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-08T19:25Z 1.1M followers, 390.8K engagements "The World in Which We Live Now. X Points. Lecture at the Ron Paul Institute Annual Meeting. Thanks @DanielLMcAdams" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1966963169940943176) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-13T20:32Z 1.1M followers, 265.8K engagements "I just published The World in Which We Live" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1967478646182166963) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-15T06:40Z 1.1M followers, 620.3K engagements "Lifetime observation: the fancier the restaurant the fewer the smilesand even fewer the laughs" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1970492345914134654) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-23T14:15Z 1.1M followers, 577.7K engagements "Netanyahu bullshitting an empty room. There are two types of delegates 1) Those who know he is bullshitting but have some professional interest in staying in the room (slaves); 2) Those who know he is bullshitting but have left the room" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1971725834794016870) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-26T23:57Z 1.1M followers, 235.2K engagements "Things are spreading. A PARALYZING general strike in Italy in support of the Gaza Flottila and against the Italian govt's position. Things come from the bottom not the top. More to come. Slowly (alas for the victims) but surely" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1973496219495440485) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-01T21:12Z 1.1M followers, 157.3K engagements "STATISTICAL MISTAKE DU JOUR If a portion of those with low cholesterol use statins because they are metabolically ill then the cohort will have a higher mortality rate (but their HR would be even higher without controlling LDL). Similar to Simpson's paradox. h/t @drjohnm" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1974597815621009537) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-04T22:09Z 1.1M followers, 172K engagements "When 1) you only respect scholarly rigor 2) come from a Christian community that survived (even thrived) under Islam for XX C 3) are avid reader of history in the ORIGINAL languages you can be allergic to charlatans like @KonstantinKisin w/Netanyahu propaganda clickers. Note the "dhimmi" fictions promoted by Zionists like Bat Ye'or is crap --it paid to be Christian & sometimes pay lower taxes than Muslims & often lower taxes than under the Byzantines. See my piece on conversion & the minority rule" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975602731319521503) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-07T16:42Z 1.1M followers, 63.3K engagements "Six months later it keeps going" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975882381153440057) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T11:14Z 1.1M followers, 166.4K engagements "Nice try by propagandists. The "Viennese schnitzel" is made of veal. Same with its Milanese ancestor. My rule: propagandists of the "Bibi $7K" or other are typically dumb ignorant and totally unwordly" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975955978039574927) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T16:06Z 1.1M followers, 123.9K engagements "2/ And BTW Jesus was disowned by Jewish tradition called by his Greek name "Yessu ha-Notzri" not Yehoshua. Often called "Ben Pantera" as the son of a supposed Roman-Phoenician soldier" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975957061944184852) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T16:10Z 1.1M followers, 32.7K engagements "In a rational market ground floor apartments in Moscow should sell at a huuuuuge premium" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976060972067586241) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-08T23:03Z 1.1M followers, 556.3K engagements "I watched them double up every time before a ceasefire intensifying to cause maximal damage. And people think they act in good faith" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976091138621886521) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-09T01:03Z 1.1M followers, 220.1K engagements "I know who said it BTW" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977102189459038344) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T20:01Z 1.1M followers, 44.7K engagements "Laura Loony seems stupid enough to bullshitting where she can be caught. There are a lot of North Arabian tribes that did not convert to Islam & still bear Arabian garb. Hawatmeh is a well known Christian North-Arabian clan. They have been Christian for perhaps 2000 years" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977113046071099759) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T20:44Z 1.1M followers, 123.9K engagements "If I understand Covid anti-vaxxers (& those who believe it was just a hoax) voted for Trump who just got vaccinated & are not complaining. Am I missing something" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977460222202380644) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-12T19:43Z 1.1M followers, 110.1K engagements "Correction: Greco-Romans ruled 1000 y (excluding Hasmoneans for 78y) Ottomans 400y Arab Califate 300y add XX for Ayyubides Egyptian New Kindom ruled XXX years over Canaan (until Bronze Age Collapse) Mamluks 250y until Ottomans Persians 200y Israelites unsure until XXX (200y) then Assyrians then Babylonians" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977858227095171307) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T22:05Z 1.1M followers, 295.7K engagements ""A probabilist is to a statistician what a car designer is to a mechanic". A Conversation with Nassim Taleb on the Risks of Cancer and Heart Disease" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978442236661514446) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-15T12:46Z 1.1M followers, 163.7K engagements "Friends a speculation. It is obvious that censorship fails when it is overt. How about concealed sneaky censorship (of the type we had on Palestine for all these years)" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978471515046953213) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-15T14:42Z 1.1M followers, 99.3K engagements "@IndianLatino Incentives WITHOUT disincentives is free option" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978811376786108525) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-16T13:12Z 1.1M followers, 16.6K engagements "Technically if you start with probability matching: Theodorus Ibn Warqa is going to: XX% the airport XX% find squid ink XX% ride a bicycle XX% . it will give you a randomized version with option X (the airport) more frequently (40% of the time). Then this will populate other answers then airport will get XX% then 60%. until it becomes deterministic. This is how monocultures are formed" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979176279069909317) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-17T13:22Z 1.1M followers, 241.7K engagements "Correct. With training someone with math skills can bring up IQ to the 170s without becoming suddenly more "intelligent"" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1960216669634142342) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-08-26T05:44Z 1.1M followers, 733.4K engagements "All rumors are false until officially denied" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1972355309009318131) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-09-28T17:38Z 1.1M followers, 461.1K engagements "Mature democracies have entered a dystopia: the smaller the injustice the more extreme the response; the greater the injustice the deeper the bureaucratic indifference" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1973438556535398875) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-01T17:23Z 1.1M followers, 220.2K engagements "This retard @KonstantinKisin didn't get that these were conversions of locals from Judaism to Christianity then to Islam over the centuries not invasion by Peninsular Arabs. It's like saying that France became Christian because its Celtic population was replaced by Romans" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975558836095492180) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-07T13:48Z 1.1M followers, 901.6K engagements "@KonstantinKisin Fucking idiot I said it was over the centuries slow and progressive" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1975561934964666452) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-07T14:00Z 1.1M followers, 342.3K engagements "Is AI different In the past technologies (dishwashers word processors etc.) moved workers up the added value scale w/productivity at the bottom. AI is moving lawyerseditorsradiologists into lower value jobs: Uber drivers waiters. Gains are going to technofeudalists" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976271162943602696) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-09T12:58Z 1.1M followers, 189.4K engagements "Schoolteachers tutors radiologists translators paralegals accountants programmers Spanish grammar specialists health advisers internet grifters web page designers exam cheating consultants IQ bullshitters. All these have nothing but downward mobility" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976273219087958324) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-09T13:07Z 1.1M followers, 56.1K engagements "3/ Saying "good programmers/lawyers/. will do better by leveraging the technology" is to the point: the pool is necessarily shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976276558408241540) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-09T13:20Z 1.1M followers, 51.8K engagements "BTW Seneca never said that" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1976992704338043120) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T12:46Z 1.1M followers, 360.2K engagements "DISINFORMATION BUSTING DUJOUR -In the "Mountain War" Christians vs Druze Israel sided with the Druze w/ethnic cleansing. -It was the Allawite Assad who saved the Christians in 1976 as they were losing the war. -The "civil war" was both directly & indirectly CAUSED by Isra3l" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977019546180649404) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-11T14:32Z 1.1M followers, 130.6K engagements "The point the FT editorial writer doesn't get is that gold is not bought by central banks because they like its color but because there is no current alternative reserve currency that satisfies the BRICS zone agenda. Assets in $ & have been frozen" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977351416881549689) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-12T12:31Z 1.1M followers, 187.9K engagements "Traditionally silver has been for transactions and gold for storage (since Phoenicians). Money in Spanish is "plata" in French "argent" in Latin "argentum" Canaanite . There were short unsuccessful phases of bimetalism" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1977853908799140271) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-13T21:48Z 1.1M followers, 37.9K engagements "Two years of Gaza and the eye opening it caused (on historical facts vs propaganda) is drawing me to view some people with such MORAL DISGUST that I am afraid of my own emotional reactions" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978110999241625837) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-14T14:49Z 1.1M followers, 196.5K engagements "I too was fooled to believe for a long time that the Palestinians were the ones who "did not want to settle". Then I realized it was the exact opposite; even before Netanyahu. Now I feel shame at having being played" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978481494424244616) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-15T15:22Z 1.1M followers, 663.6K engagements "@ggreenwald Maybe I am conflating disinformation and censorship" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1978489298027504047) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-15T15:53Z 1.1M followers, 4276 engagements "We now have: Bailouts under the banner of libertarianism; Censorship under the banner of "free press" (Bari Goebbels); Peace claims by the Department of War. Orwel''s 1984 was not speculative fiction but a blueprint" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979263319685881897) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-17T19:08Z 1.1M followers, 139.4K engagements "I used to believe that most propagandists were idiots. Having found no exceptions I am now inclined to believe that ALL propagandists are idiots. It must be a physical law" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979647809931632816) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-18T20:36Z 1.1M followers, 183.3K engagements "2/The Samaritans consider themselves Israelites but not "Jewish" (Judeans) & don't recognize Jerusalem (their temple was in Mount Gezirim). They claim they were the majority of Israelites (Tawfiq). THere are XXX left. Some see below were active in the Palestinian resistance" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1979978863204782502) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-19T18:32Z 1.1M followers, 29.5K engagements "What I learned from Gaza (& more generally the Palestinian plight). Some people have humanity but no courage; others have courage and no humanity; most have neither humanity nor courage and only a few very few have both humanity and courage" [X Link](https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1980016797437800884) [@nntaleb](/creator/x/nntaleb) 2025-10-19T21:02Z 1.1M followers, 87.6K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@nntaleb
"My most important paper ever: How uncertainty (errors on errors) fattens the tails. Connects to all epistemological traditions. w/@DrCirillo Pages 1-4"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-03T11:38Z 1.1M followers, 271.4K engagements
"Lies likely the "$7K Bibi" Hasbara at work. I walk around Amman with a cross the size of Minneapolis & nobody has ever bothered me. There are even North Arabian tribes (Haddadin) in Jordan that are Christian & were never pushed to convert in the past 1400 years"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T13:07Z 1.1M followers, 290.8K engagements
"Finally cardiologists are becoming aware of the Lp(a) flaw but still unable to fix risk factors. No point lowering LDL(ApoB) below 100(equiv) for primary prevention for negative Lp(a); one must overreact for high Lp(a)"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-12T12:38Z 1.1M followers, 183.8K engagements
"My critique: IQ psychologists are stat-ignorant bullshitters it explains less than X % of success (only predicts mental detardation). Their response: proves IQ psychologists are stat-ignorant bullshitters"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-01T17:06Z 1.1M followers, 235.8K engagements
"It is not an involution (self-inverse): if I wrote the book slowly & by walking slowly the reader does not have to read it slowly"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-04T21:51Z 1.1M followers, 197.1K engagements
"When 1) you only respect scholarly rigor 2) come from a Christian community that survived (even thrived) under Islam for XX C 3) are avid reader of history in the ORIGINAL languages you can be allergic to charlatans like @KonstantinKisin w/Netanyahu propaganda clickers. Note the "dhimmi" fictions promoted by Zionists like Bat Ye'or is crap --it paid to be Christian & sometimes pay lower taxes than Muslims & often lower taxes than under the Byzantines. See my piece on conversion & the minority rule"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-07T16:41Z 1.1M followers, 186.4K engagements
"I don't know if things got better for @CharlesMurray but it takes some erudition to write about religion something he seriously lacks. Scumbag made XX mistakes in a single page on his book on the "West". I didn't bring it up in debate & he paid be back with ingratitude"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T12:43Z 1.1M followers, 123.7K engagements
"You can think it is a good idea to be long silver (I have been for a long time). But it is a mistake to think that it is in the "same asset class" as gold. Why Central Banks are not accumulating silver. (It may correlate weakly but the substitution is weak.)"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T12:16Z 1.1M followers, 276.7K engagements
"Hasbara Fake News du jour: Retardito @craigiskowitz Ottomans were not into forced conversions. Serbia/Romania/Bulgaria/Roumeli etc. stayed Orthodox. This was a brutal POLITICAL punitive putting down of an uprising using pre-Islamic Persian punishment methods"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-14T00:22Z 1.1M followers, 109.7K engagements
"No matter what you say about Trump no matter Biden"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T01:43Z 1.1M followers, 246.9K engagements
"Game theory is an amuse-mind for people who never had a real job"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-17T13:05Z 1.1M followers, 298.6K engagements
"For the past 9m every time I've seen Trump or any of his myrmidons making an economics statement has prompted me to buy gold-- irresistibly. The solution may be to block all news except for bicycle information. I need to reduce"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-24T13:36Z 1.1M followers, 154.3K engagements
"Looks like things changed after Trump's U.N. meeting with Arabs. His animal instinct detected that they gave him a natural respect. There was mutual trust & common interest. In contrast Netanyahu exuded distrust particularly that Israelis walk around like they own America"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-04T21:47Z 1.1M followers, 129.1K engagements
"Note: Southern Levant: Judaism/Samaritanism (mostly) & Paganism =Christianity Other Parts: Paganism ("Hellenism" in West other in East) =Christianity"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-07T14:18Z 1.1M followers, 98.2K engagements
"A Palestinian whose family was ethnically cleansed from Gaza in 1948 won the Nobel Prize. He was lucky 1srael did not kill him as they routinely do with skilled Palestinians"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T15:57Z 1.1M followers, 520.1K engagements
"Although Grok is somewhat controlled by you know who they cannot fully control its output (too many degrees of freedom). "Bibi trolls" go on my threads sowing doubt by claiming it is "nonsense" hoping it would dilute the effect"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-14T12:22Z 1.1M followers, 31.3K engagements
"Many believe that someone coming from the private sector will be business-minded & not bureaucratic. No You get a salary (not a commission/cut) = you are a bureaucrat. CEOs are the most bureaucratic even those on incentive WORSE than government bureaucrats"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-16T12:33Z 1.1M followers, 251.3K engagements
"Libertarians are fundamentally against bailing out U.S. companies with U.S. taxpayer funds & backstop. But how about bailing out a foreign country (with U.S. taxpayer funds & backstop) BECAUSE it has a libertarian president"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-17T18:42Z 1.1M followers, 241.9K engagements
"People who never had a real job don't know that they never had a real job"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-18T15:49Z 1.1M followers, 253.3K engagements
"TRUE WEALTH (3rd Ed) Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Genuine sense you did your duty toward the Palestinians & other victims Absence of envy Foamy coffee Crusty bread Trustworthy friends & inexperienced enemies Frequent smiles No meals alone Nice clothes in evening (& Sunday lunch) No friends w/hypochondria No gym classes Gravel bicycling Good digestive functions No Zoom "meetings" No chronic medication Periodic surprises Nothing to hide: financial and fiscal tranquility Muscular strength & endurance Ability to nap Access to a hammock"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-18T20:50Z 1.1M followers, 286.1K engagements
"4) Interest rates vs inflation. Cryptoheads and techies think in labels no clue about finance. #Idiots"
X Link @nntaleb 2023-01-11T16:19Z 1.1M followers, 98.2K engagements
"Prigozhin's training is X y in a Soviet prison running a ring of thieves as a teenager. He sat in the front line like earlier time warriors. By comparison Putin is a poseur working on his image like Twitter gym bros. Russians can detect who's real & who's not. --- See my "surgeons don't look like surgeons""
X Link @nntaleb 2023-06-24T21:37Z 1.1M followers, 931.6K engagements
"How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer"
X Link @nntaleb 2024-06-27T00:14Z 1.1M followers, 158.2K engagements
"You want to be an author Be fearless. Be incorruptible. Be uncompromising but nuanced. Ignore your readers' preferences or opinions. You are not delivering summer fashion moccasins. If they don't like the stuff fuck them"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-03-09T01:55Z 1.1M followers, 204.6K engagements
"Anyone w/decent skills in discrete mathematics & combinatorics (capable of proving a theorem) & w/geometric intuitions shd be capable of raising their IQ test scores 150-160 by dint of training GRE-style without increasing their intellect a bit. IQ is a fraud"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-03-10T21:53Z 1.1M followers, 183.6K engagements
"This cyclist friend of mine who asks me to post on X on his behalf (he is shy) got a call from the lover of the now married ex-mistress of his dermatologist to let him know that he is going to vote against Trump at the midterm elections. He will also take Tylenol next accident"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-25T14:30Z 1.1M followers, 62.2K engagements
"I am optimistic about the following. Indicted war criminal Netanyahu is still using his Hasbara v. 1971. Censorship & propaganda work only when invisible as we learned from the Soviet Union. Furthermore things work in reverse: if fuels conspiracy theories"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-27T13:33Z 1.1M followers, 170.9K engagements
"The introduction to my paper on data hacking particularly p-hacking. For comments"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-01T19:53Z 1.1M followers, 95.1K engagements
"Total nonsense. Jesus is orders of magnitude more connected (both by blood and culture) to present-day Palestinians than to Mileikowski. This is a historical continuum of locally evolved cultures. @DineshDSouza is a propagandist with poor historical understanding"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T13:38Z 1.1M followers, 165K engagements
"@VO2_maximum Let us know when they start buying. So far it is speculators like me who own SLV"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T14:09Z 1.1M followers, 9551 engagements
"@EdwardIanKearns Retardo $XX million is something I wd buy not a central bank"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T20:38Z 1.1M followers, 3492 engagements
"ChatGPT is a statistical representation of things found on the web which will increasingly include ITS OWN output (directly and second hand). You post something picked up from it & it will use it to reinforce its own knowledge. Progressively a self-licking lollipop. Enjoy #AI"
X Link @nntaleb 2023-05-21T15:19Z 1.1M followers, 1.3M engagements
"Dear enemiesThe Black Swan is now the most influential (that is discussed/mentioned) 21st C book. While almost all books have a half-life between X and X months it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy Same with other X books in the Incerto. Graph is US only"
X Link @nntaleb 2024-07-30T15:39Z 1.1M followers, 6.1M engagements
"Gaza is the second intellectual shock I've had in my life: it shows the prevalence of psychopaths among otherwise well-functioning seemingly civilized people. Few people are genuinely virtuous; they just act that way under the minority rule of the truly virtuous"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-04-30T15:29Z 1.1M followers, 367.2K engagements
"RIP Pope Francis. He was genuinely truly compassionate and virtuous"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-04-30T15:53Z 1.1M followers, 59K engagements
"The True ancestors of Palestinians created Judaism Christianity and produced dozens of Greco-Roman authors: Isidorus of Gaza Aeneas of Gaza Procopius of Gaza Marinus of Neapolis (Nablus) Procopius of Caesarea Timotheus of Gaza etc. etc. cc:@DalrympleWill (note :race-obsessed@primalpoly is of both low intelligence AND low erudition)"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-08-25T13:00Z 1.1M followers, 272.8K engagements
"The ability to know what you can't predict and work with unpredictability is the best measure of intelligence. (Fooled by Randomness Chapter on Philostratus)"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-05T10:18Z 1.1M followers, 387.7K engagements
"Vastly More Effective Options: 1- Buy a Ferrari (or a Porsche if very poor) 2- Get a couple of bespoke Brioni suits get them slightly rumpled 3- Suede shoes even in the summer 4- Train to talk to her as if it were about her not you 5- Write a bad novel 6- Make her smile"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-08T19:25Z 1.1M followers, 390.8K engagements
"The World in Which We Live Now. X Points. Lecture at the Ron Paul Institute Annual Meeting. Thanks @DanielLMcAdams"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-13T20:32Z 1.1M followers, 265.8K engagements
"I just published The World in Which We Live"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-15T06:40Z 1.1M followers, 620.3K engagements
"Lifetime observation: the fancier the restaurant the fewer the smilesand even fewer the laughs"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-23T14:15Z 1.1M followers, 577.7K engagements
"Netanyahu bullshitting an empty room. There are two types of delegates 1) Those who know he is bullshitting but have some professional interest in staying in the room (slaves); 2) Those who know he is bullshitting but have left the room"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-26T23:57Z 1.1M followers, 235.2K engagements
"Things are spreading. A PARALYZING general strike in Italy in support of the Gaza Flottila and against the Italian govt's position. Things come from the bottom not the top. More to come. Slowly (alas for the victims) but surely"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-01T21:12Z 1.1M followers, 157.3K engagements
"STATISTICAL MISTAKE DU JOUR If a portion of those with low cholesterol use statins because they are metabolically ill then the cohort will have a higher mortality rate (but their HR would be even higher without controlling LDL). Similar to Simpson's paradox. h/t @drjohnm"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-04T22:09Z 1.1M followers, 172K engagements
"When 1) you only respect scholarly rigor 2) come from a Christian community that survived (even thrived) under Islam for XX C 3) are avid reader of history in the ORIGINAL languages you can be allergic to charlatans like @KonstantinKisin w/Netanyahu propaganda clickers. Note the "dhimmi" fictions promoted by Zionists like Bat Ye'or is crap --it paid to be Christian & sometimes pay lower taxes than Muslims & often lower taxes than under the Byzantines. See my piece on conversion & the minority rule"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-07T16:42Z 1.1M followers, 63.3K engagements
"Six months later it keeps going"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T11:14Z 1.1M followers, 166.4K engagements
"Nice try by propagandists. The "Viennese schnitzel" is made of veal. Same with its Milanese ancestor. My rule: propagandists of the "Bibi $7K" or other are typically dumb ignorant and totally unwordly"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T16:06Z 1.1M followers, 123.9K engagements
"2/ And BTW Jesus was disowned by Jewish tradition called by his Greek name "Yessu ha-Notzri" not Yehoshua. Often called "Ben Pantera" as the son of a supposed Roman-Phoenician soldier"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T16:10Z 1.1M followers, 32.7K engagements
"In a rational market ground floor apartments in Moscow should sell at a huuuuuge premium"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-08T23:03Z 1.1M followers, 556.3K engagements
"I watched them double up every time before a ceasefire intensifying to cause maximal damage. And people think they act in good faith"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-09T01:03Z 1.1M followers, 220.1K engagements
"I know who said it BTW"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T20:01Z 1.1M followers, 44.7K engagements
"Laura Loony seems stupid enough to bullshitting where she can be caught. There are a lot of North Arabian tribes that did not convert to Islam & still bear Arabian garb. Hawatmeh is a well known Christian North-Arabian clan. They have been Christian for perhaps 2000 years"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T20:44Z 1.1M followers, 123.9K engagements
"If I understand Covid anti-vaxxers (& those who believe it was just a hoax) voted for Trump who just got vaccinated & are not complaining. Am I missing something"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-12T19:43Z 1.1M followers, 110.1K engagements
"Correction: Greco-Romans ruled 1000 y (excluding Hasmoneans for 78y) Ottomans 400y Arab Califate 300y add XX for Ayyubides Egyptian New Kindom ruled XXX years over Canaan (until Bronze Age Collapse) Mamluks 250y until Ottomans Persians 200y Israelites unsure until XXX (200y) then Assyrians then Babylonians"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T22:05Z 1.1M followers, 295.7K engagements
""A probabilist is to a statistician what a car designer is to a mechanic". A Conversation with Nassim Taleb on the Risks of Cancer and Heart Disease"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-15T12:46Z 1.1M followers, 163.7K engagements
"Friends a speculation. It is obvious that censorship fails when it is overt. How about concealed sneaky censorship (of the type we had on Palestine for all these years)"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-15T14:42Z 1.1M followers, 99.3K engagements
"@IndianLatino Incentives WITHOUT disincentives is free option"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-16T13:12Z 1.1M followers, 16.6K engagements
"Technically if you start with probability matching: Theodorus Ibn Warqa is going to: XX% the airport XX% find squid ink XX% ride a bicycle XX% . it will give you a randomized version with option X (the airport) more frequently (40% of the time). Then this will populate other answers then airport will get XX% then 60%. until it becomes deterministic. This is how monocultures are formed"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-17T13:22Z 1.1M followers, 241.7K engagements
"Correct. With training someone with math skills can bring up IQ to the 170s without becoming suddenly more "intelligent""
X Link @nntaleb 2025-08-26T05:44Z 1.1M followers, 733.4K engagements
"All rumors are false until officially denied"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-09-28T17:38Z 1.1M followers, 461.1K engagements
"Mature democracies have entered a dystopia: the smaller the injustice the more extreme the response; the greater the injustice the deeper the bureaucratic indifference"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-01T17:23Z 1.1M followers, 220.2K engagements
"This retard @KonstantinKisin didn't get that these were conversions of locals from Judaism to Christianity then to Islam over the centuries not invasion by Peninsular Arabs. It's like saying that France became Christian because its Celtic population was replaced by Romans"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-07T13:48Z 1.1M followers, 901.6K engagements
"@KonstantinKisin Fucking idiot I said it was over the centuries slow and progressive"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-07T14:00Z 1.1M followers, 342.3K engagements
"Is AI different In the past technologies (dishwashers word processors etc.) moved workers up the added value scale w/productivity at the bottom. AI is moving lawyerseditorsradiologists into lower value jobs: Uber drivers waiters. Gains are going to technofeudalists"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-09T12:58Z 1.1M followers, 189.4K engagements
"Schoolteachers tutors radiologists translators paralegals accountants programmers Spanish grammar specialists health advisers internet grifters web page designers exam cheating consultants IQ bullshitters. All these have nothing but downward mobility"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-09T13:07Z 1.1M followers, 56.1K engagements
"3/ Saying "good programmers/lawyers/. will do better by leveraging the technology" is to the point: the pool is necessarily shrinking"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-09T13:20Z 1.1M followers, 51.8K engagements
"BTW Seneca never said that"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T12:46Z 1.1M followers, 360.2K engagements
"DISINFORMATION BUSTING DUJOUR -In the "Mountain War" Christians vs Druze Israel sided with the Druze w/ethnic cleansing. -It was the Allawite Assad who saved the Christians in 1976 as they were losing the war. -The "civil war" was both directly & indirectly CAUSED by Isra3l"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-11T14:32Z 1.1M followers, 130.6K engagements
"The point the FT editorial writer doesn't get is that gold is not bought by central banks because they like its color but because there is no current alternative reserve currency that satisfies the BRICS zone agenda. Assets in $ & have been frozen"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-12T12:31Z 1.1M followers, 187.9K engagements
"Traditionally silver has been for transactions and gold for storage (since Phoenicians). Money in Spanish is "plata" in French "argent" in Latin "argentum" Canaanite . There were short unsuccessful phases of bimetalism"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-13T21:48Z 1.1M followers, 37.9K engagements
"Two years of Gaza and the eye opening it caused (on historical facts vs propaganda) is drawing me to view some people with such MORAL DISGUST that I am afraid of my own emotional reactions"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-14T14:49Z 1.1M followers, 196.5K engagements
"I too was fooled to believe for a long time that the Palestinians were the ones who "did not want to settle". Then I realized it was the exact opposite; even before Netanyahu. Now I feel shame at having being played"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-15T15:22Z 1.1M followers, 663.6K engagements
"@ggreenwald Maybe I am conflating disinformation and censorship"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-15T15:53Z 1.1M followers, 4276 engagements
"We now have: Bailouts under the banner of libertarianism; Censorship under the banner of "free press" (Bari Goebbels); Peace claims by the Department of War. Orwel''s 1984 was not speculative fiction but a blueprint"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-17T19:08Z 1.1M followers, 139.4K engagements
"I used to believe that most propagandists were idiots. Having found no exceptions I am now inclined to believe that ALL propagandists are idiots. It must be a physical law"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-18T20:36Z 1.1M followers, 183.3K engagements
"2/The Samaritans consider themselves Israelites but not "Jewish" (Judeans) & don't recognize Jerusalem (their temple was in Mount Gezirim). They claim they were the majority of Israelites (Tawfiq). THere are XXX left. Some see below were active in the Palestinian resistance"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-19T18:32Z 1.1M followers, 29.5K engagements
"What I learned from Gaza (& more generally the Palestinian plight). Some people have humanity but no courage; others have courage and no humanity; most have neither humanity nor courage and only a few very few have both humanity and courage"
X Link @nntaleb 2025-10-19T21:02Z 1.1M followers, 87.6K engagements
/creator/twitter::381289719/posts