[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@chamath](/creator/twitter/chamath) "As with all phases of the capital markets cycle there are the pioneers the fast followers mainstream practitioners and the laggards with each group bigger than the one before it. The issue here is that with 19k PE firms this asset class is firmly in the laggard bucket. The only thing that can correct this is distributions. But with few IPOs and without new capital coming into PE there are less opportunities to sell to other PE firmscreating a big negatively reflexive cycle downwards. Some big LP will soon call it and cut their allocation to PE making it ok for others to fast follow and do the" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1973760585428042225) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-02T14:42Z 1.9M followers, 131K engagements "Katie Porter would like to run the fifth largest economy in the world" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1975711154258534694) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-07T23:53Z 1.9M followers, 898.5K engagements "A reminder from Elon about the bitter lesson. The following coordination of machines and electrons will win: 1B AI chips X TW power 100M robots This is now all about capital speed and scale" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1976315086391414923) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-09T15:53Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements "The GOAT has spoken: No crying in the casino" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1908326913225220458) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-04-05T01:12Z 1.9M followers, 511.3K engagements "We made a big leap with Software Factory this week: We can now back-propagate from legacy code weve never seen into an accurate architecture blueprint (and PRD) in one shot. Then you can go forward with new features on legacy code adhering to the architecture. This is a critical feature for any large organization with millions/billions of lines of legacy code that you have to work with and cant just clean-sheet around. We are still early (read: this will get much much better over the next few iterations) but it is really coming together nicely" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1959520507176374623) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-08-24T07:37Z 1.9M followers, 150.7K engagements "At some point in the near future the largest power utility in America will be a company that a) has sold 10Ms of households the ability to generate their own electricity and b) uses an app and sensors to tie them all together as a distributed power utility" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1964545277098127722) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-09-07T04:24Z 1.9M followers, 809.1K engagements "3) Last week Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved to mandate a national digital ID by the end of this Parliament (targeting 2029). The Parliaments goal is to help combat illegal working and streamlining citizens access to vital government services. Government statistics note XX% of UK citizens never had passports while XX% have smartphones suggesting digital ID could reduce identity fraud while increasing access to social benefits. The backlash has been immediate with a Parliamentary petition against Digital ID cards reaching XXX million signatures within a couple days the largest in UK history" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1974540684398129428) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-04T18:22Z 1.9M followers, 53.4K engagements "Everything is market" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1976676723640205328) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-10T15:50Z 1.9M followers, 229K engagements "True. China is formidable but so is America. We need to have complete internal resiliency. The critical capabilities to support our society must not be gated by another country and their priorities" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1976849237070811173) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T03:16Z 1.9M followers, 327.3K engagements "What I Read This Week. 1) China Tightens Control over Minerals and Money On October 9th China added five heavy rare earths to its export-control list and requires licensing for processing equipment that will go into effect on December 1st. The move is framed as a safeguard to national security with some space carved out for applications in humanitarian aid. Anything else that is dual use with even XXX% value in their rare earths will need to submit relevant documents for approval. China is consolidating control upstream of every semiconductor fab AI data center robotics company defense" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977066939710423418) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T17:41Z 1.9M followers, 130.8K engagements "Dont take it from me. Its harder to ignore though when coming from an energy goat" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977098804827767223) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T19:47Z 1.9M followers, 216.3K engagements "Scientists are transplanting healthy mitochondria into damaged cells performing microscopic organelle transplants to address various life-threatening conditions and potentially extend lifespan as well. For example doctors at Boston Children's Hospital have extracted mitochondria from abdominal tissue and infused them into failing hearts increasing the survival rates of babies with heart damage from XX% to 80%. Similar approaches are being tested for stroke patients at the University of Washington while companies like Minovia Therapeutics are using these techniques to address genetic" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1909040581667389799) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-04-07T00:28Z 1.9M followers, 134.8K engagements "Just spoke to @NYSE and I asked them to reserve two possible tickers. Please choose the one you would like" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1935850708181614637) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-06-20T00:02Z 1.9M followers, 476.5K engagements "Go to 1:15 Katie Porter is multi-dimensionally ugly. Hard to do. Congrats Katie" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1976137383482622410) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-09T04:07Z 1.9M followers, 358.3K engagements "They are definitely going to trybut a XXX% China tariff by POTUS is a very smart response. With 20%+ youth unemployment in China the tariff attacks at the heart of a fragile Chinese economy" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977027546207469852) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T15:04Z 1.9M followers, 872K engagements "Friend posted this in a group chat and my immediate though my was: These arent AI job losses. But they may very like be Elon/X job losses. He fired XX% of Twitter and the company is operating the same/better. Maybe many other companies see that and now also believe they can do something similar (albeit less extreme)" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981762850764075084) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-24T16:40Z 1.9M followers, 299.8K engagements "Chinas CATL the worlds largest EV battery maker raised nearly $X billion in a secondary Hong Kong listing this week to fund its overseas expansion. The company plans to use the proceeds to accelerate construction of new factories in Hungary Spain and Germany building on its partnerships with European automakers like BMW and Stellantis. This marks a push for CATL to scale beyond China where it already supplies one in every three EV batteries worldwide and a growing share of grid storage systems. CATL has also expanded its presence in the U.S. through grid-scale deployments and a technology" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1927053741783425530) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-05-26T17:26Z 1.9M followers, 4891 engagements "Venture firms including Khosla Ventures General Catalyst and Thrive Capital are testing a new investment strategy involving acquiring mature low-tech service businesses and modernizing them with AI tools internally. These targets such as call centers accounting firms and homeowners associations offer steady cash flows and entrenched customer bases that could be made more efficient with internal AI tools and automation. General Catalyst has already backed seven such companies including Long Lake a platform rolling up HOAs which has raised $XXX million. Khosla Ventures is evaluating similar" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1927053745646375290) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-05-26T17:26Z 1.9M followers, 65.6K engagements "The marginal cost of compute is going to zero. The marginal cost of energy is going to zero. Plan accordingly" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1945447502628491590) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-07-16T11:36Z 1.9M followers, 2.1M engagements "China is not known for emotional decisions so take this at face value" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1948399009795637681) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-07-24T15:04Z 1.9M followers, 4.6M engagements "Terrible look for online sports gambling Individual States are poorly run by Governors and State Houses with very little financial acumen. So they run deficits or miss allocate capital and then turn to simple superficial ways to generate revenues like sports gambling. Turns out it creates negative societal consequences. In that way Sports Gambling is equivalent to legalization of marijuana in its corrosiveness to a healthy well functioning society" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1949458699078054055) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-07-27T13:15Z 1.9M followers, 576.2K engagements "Agreed. What actually happened was that we stopped valuing having a family and instead became hyper focused on individual goals. The myriad books courses content slogans over the past XX years all reinforced the same incentive: your fulfillment is largely from professional endeavors so double down and lean in. The byproduct was that having a family became secondary and conveyed less status. Unless we dismantle these laggard ideas and find incentives to celebrate and elevate family formation our birthrates will continue to fall" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1949767366075658525) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-07-28T09:42Z 1.9M followers, 960.5K engagements "Do this search for yourself and see the green sources vs the red sources. Now ask yourself if this kind of one sided censorship is the best way for you to get the unfiltered truth. It may be that Wikipedia is a massive psyop" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1972846173481566649) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-09-30T02:09Z 1.9M followers, 15.3M engagements "President Trump got Intel to give Team America XX% of itself at $X. An insane negotiation. All of this upside accrues to American taxpayers which is really incredible. Trump now has a better IRR than Buffett. Deal with it because its mathematically true" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1973825194608504939) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-02T18:59Z 1.9M followers, 484.8K engagements "I wonder if those that use Claude Code or the umpteen app-crappers that wrap Anthropic realize they are funding their own demise Only the biggest and well funded companies (like Anthropic) will be able to afford the operational complexity of meeting XX different sets of state AI regulations. This should be left to the Federal Government" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978164777655685280) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-14T18:23Z 1.9M followers, 318.6K engagements "QT is over. Now what Probably rate cuts. Yet again Powell is behind the 8-ball. The number of self-inflicted wounds by the Fed is piling up" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978165799756984704) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-14T18:27Z 1.9M followers, 290.9K engagements "Private credit is eating private equity. The implications are quite profound for the American economy. PE has had a very poor return profile over the past 5+ years. Very little DPI send back to LPs including me Meanwhile Private Credit hums along and generates great returns that are the same or better than PE and gives me cashflow. But if money flows out of PE and into PC where does PC invest as their PE customers retrench My suspicion is they move aggressively to compete w PE and fund companies to stay independent vs financing PE firms to do go-private transactions. This is healthy and good" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1919450067301498906) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-05-05T17:52Z 1.9M followers, 839.8K engagements "If this is even remotely true combined with everything else happening rn the only safe trade are hard assets and dare I say gold. Sheesh" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1928162226466075094) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-05-29T18:51Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements "Incredible that almost 58k people voted. I hope everyone that voted No feels seen. Now onto business. I got calls from many Wall Street and Crypto Titans yesterday. They all want in and their vote matters a lot to me so. I will probably do it. Maybe this time it will go better Who knows. The risks are clear though. The last time wasnt a success by any means. I will include this poll AND the community note in EVERY SEC filing possible. It will make an excellent disclosure about the risks and is not short of irony. So what kind of company do you guys want No crying in the casino" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1935740807925100853) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-06-19T16:45Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements "Non Farm Payrolls are total garbage so I asked Grok: Hey Grok go look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website for their non farm payrolls data. Tell me how many times their original forecasts have been revised since Jan 2020. And of those revisions how many times the data was revised up versus down. Categorize this during the Biden versus Trump presidencies. Bottom line is that BLS isnt so much conspiratorial as it is inadequate in its approach. They are all over the place and add little directional signal. They constantly revise and in both directions. The sampling techniques they use are" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1951631686417924120) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-08-02T13:10Z 1.9M followers, 4M engagements "This is not social justice reform when someone like this walks the streets. This is chaos. Listen to this father" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1973422074787144092) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-01T16:17Z 1.9M followers, 1.6M engagements "An important feature of Grokipedia will be The Big Diff List: A list of the most manipulated Wikipedia pages (from the Grokipedia truth baseline) so that Google search deboosts those pages from search AND Common Crawl excludes them from training data. In other words if the human editors and their funders at Wikipedia are engaged in misinformation and content manipulation Grokipedia can hold them accountable and shine a bright light on it so those that feed Wikipedia its traffic act" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1974864103664668757) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-05T15:47Z 1.9M followers, 369.1K engagements "Google a private for-profit software company has had five Nobel Laureates work for them. Most universities have had none" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1975663445803737202) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-07T20:44Z 1.9M followers, 509.1K engagements "When geopolitical & socio-economic tensions rise both people & nations turn to hard assets. One big buyer in particular has been Beijing. China has been swapping Treasuries for gold for years lifting reserves to over 74m ounces. This is a reflection of both state policy and popular sentiment: hedging against dollar risk sanctions and Chinas own shaky property and stock markets. Its a signal of rising uncertainty in the world" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1975977622548156917) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-08T17:32Z 1.9M followers, 660.9K engagements "The simple solution for hyperscalers is as follows: Option A: agree to a higher rate base with the utility so that you can guarantee people in the local geography wont see increased electricity rates. Option B: agree to pay for resi solar + storage for local citizens so they wont see increased electricity rates. Either way if the hyperscalers dont use their gobs of free cashflow to cushion the inflation of electricity rates you should expect to see a lot more pushback" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1976861300539203726) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T04:03Z 1.9M followers, 291.2K engagements "One general and one specific takeaway from this about politics elections and leaders: Candidates win elections on hope for the future. As such it has largely been (and likely will remain) true that popularity is maximal once elected and then wanes. Its true in the UK and many other nations going back 40+ years absent some exogenous event. Kier Starmer specifically is performing so horribly that he may go down as the Neville Chamberlain of our era - running a government defined by catastrophic misjudgment on every level. That is quite something" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977032246545850387) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T15:23Z 1.9M followers, 122.1K engagements "I think its the difference between inherited vs evolved differentiation. People can excuse people who were born different. They can jump they can sing I cannot. Being the rationalization. Its much harder however for people to confront someone who was born the same as them but committed to work development and risk taking and then succeeded. These are non-immutable traits and are available for everyone to express. Those that do and are rewarded however tend to alienate the umpteen masses that cant get out of their own way" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977098176772686261) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T19:45Z 1.9M followers, 205.1K engagements "To be very clear Trump did not kill solar. In fact the best run solar businesses are thriving post BBB. What Trump did precisely is kill a bunch of Biden-era subsidies that were being taken advantage of by many companies to pervert a free market from well functioning to dysfunctional. Without subsidies the worst run companies in solar are rapidly going out of business. Its now possible to compare coal oil natural gas and solar on a mostly like-for-like basis. This is leading to more overall capital and more investment not less in energy production. It will mean that some projects however no" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977107378261967267) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-11T20:21Z 1.9M followers, 402.2K engagements "An observation about TradFi vs Crypto. Whales in TradFi would put big trades on and *hope* their directional bias would leak and then become the market expectation. In DeFi whales put big trades on and their actions are immediately syndicated and amplified automatically on social media causing their directional bias to become the market expectation" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977406664715436348) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-12T16:11Z 1.9M followers, 383.9K engagements "Oldie but a goodie. I did this almost five years agoas the stock approaches $XXX this was definitively one of the few SPAC deals of that era that worked No crying in the casino" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1977889483522769027) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-14T00:09Z 1.9M followers, 329.6K engagements "Great 1:1 fireside chat. @Benioff @DavidSacks" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978250025680416819) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-15T00:02Z 1.9M followers, 209.8K engagements ".@OrlandoBravoTB is one of the goats. Hes singularly focused on DPI and has built ThomaBravo into an incredible platform. He also has an inspiring story from growing up in Puerto Rico to climbing the top of the PE mountain. Worth a watch" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978495785223254468) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-15T16:18Z 1.9M followers, 169.7K engagements "Google was about to lose a vote by the Indianapolis City council and withdrew a proposal for a $1B data center. Microsoft pulled a similar project in Wisconsin based on community pushback. Are these isolated incidents or the beginning of a trend If the data below is accurate then we should expect that more local communities will pushback to stop data center buildouts in their region if it spikes electricity prices so much. A solution however is for these hyperscalers to use their robust free cashflow to go into local areas and pay for solar+storage or pay for the electricity for every" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978584886329082098) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-15T22:12Z 1.9M followers, 1.1M engagements "Watch the interviewbuy the book I bought it and am excited to read it. Well done @andrewrsorkin 🥂" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978861766869242072) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-16T16:33Z 1.9M followers, 191.8K engagements "Marc is showing the way. More cops on the street enforcing the law is a good thing. It lets law abiding folks go about their lives in peace and security" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978946900880502884) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-16T22:11Z 1.9M followers, 425.4K engagements "Useful new service if you have a history of breast cancer or are a woman over XX and haven't had a mammogram in the past year" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1978964309611868470) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-16T23:20Z 1.9M followers, 253.5K engagements "I have been an investor in @PalmettoEnergy for many years now. They are the fastest growing residential energy company in America. Their offer is simple: get off the treadmill of rising utility rates in your area become more resilient and upgrade your infrastructure to best-gen equipment and save XX% or more while doing it" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1979599814695464993) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-18T17:25Z 1.9M followers, 131.9K engagements "What I Read This Week. 1) On Monday JPMorgan Chase announced a sweeping plan to deploy $XXX trillion in financing over the next decade toward what it calls security and resiliency. The categories are a blend of industrial strategy national defense and infrastructure modernization. It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals products and manufacturing all of which are essential for our national security It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way: excessive regulations bureaucratic delay" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1979606568556741101) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-18T17:52Z 1.9M followers, 107.9K engagements "Links to sources and other articles/X I read are on substack:" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1979607157474812284) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-18T17:55Z 1.9M followers, 49.3K engagements "Huh Starbucks is a retail sugar company. If he is serious here is what it would mean to be all in on AI: A) all drinks made by robots by 2030 (Optimus or Figure) B) deprecating legacy Software Industrial Complex licenses (SBUX is probably paying billions per year in software licenses) C) all corporate software rebuilt using a modern SDLC (corollary to B rebuild everything to be custom easy to maintain and migrate) D) add Starlink to every location give away Wifi cut prices by XX% and grow E) RIF XX% headcount if A-D dont work" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1979941151114514672) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-19T16:02Z 1.9M followers, 772.6K engagements "Here are two very important charts about the current AI boom. Chart 1: Distribution Matters Open AI is still the clear leader but interestingly they are loosing percentage share as the market grows. This is normal for a category leader but its curious who they are losing share to. Its not really to other startups but incumbents with existing massive distribution. This means that Google has a huge runway ahead of itself as their models and services become better. It also means that when/if Meta gets their act together they will be able to gain share quickly. Lastly it likely means that xAI" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980004924458197472) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-19T20:15Z 1.9M followers, 698.4K engagements "@bruhmatrix No. In fact they support what we tell our customers: Focus on a governed opinionated SDLC. That is what our software factory gives them. App crappers are just next-gen toolware sprawl after SaaS toolware sprawl" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980061189871931587) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-19T23:59Z 1.9M followers, 22.2K engagements "Its not the worst idea" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980314423060492428) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-20T16:45Z 1.9M followers, 194K engagements "If the market clearing price for an accurate M&A or IPO model is $150/hr why do we pay 3-6% of the deal value" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980666407353500136) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-21T16:04Z 1.9M followers, 1M engagements "Amazons total number of deployed robots has 66x in XX years. The robotics program began after its 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems for $775m. It aimed at automating warehouse picking and sorting. What started as a logistics efficiency project has evolved into one of the world's largest fleets of autonomous systems" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980685747222114727) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-21T17:20Z 1.9M followers, 336.8K engagements "We recently released a primer on how Amazon became the backbone of ecommerce and the internet as yesterdays AWS outage reminded the world. Check out my Substack if you want to learn with me:" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1980687629399257563) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-21T17:28Z 1.9M followers, 43.4K engagements "First you build a product. Then the good ones build a platform" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981007513857491439) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-22T14:39Z 1.9M followers, 243.5K engagements "Maybe you will live to XX vs XX but are you happier now" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981008297256964322) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-22T14:42Z 1.9M followers, 696.5K engagements "Yes. Alcohol does have a negative feedback loop that is obvious to you (wake up with a ripping hangover for example). Cannabis negative feedback loop on you is more obvious to those around you (you become a zombie). Im not a huge fan of alcohol tbh but it has better checks and balances (including labeling and toxicity) than cannabis does" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981028133391466942) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-22T16:01Z 1.9M followers, 12.6K engagements "We are witnessing the slow-motion destruction of one of the greatest cities in the world" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981153503256203477) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-23T00:19Z 1.9M followers, 336K engagements "@humrashid Brilliant kids are visibly brilliant even younger than kindergarten. Not knowing that though isnt your fault - it just means youre average at best" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981364932353675728) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-23T14:19Z 1.9M followers, 3973 engagements "This is an important discussion with Sen Joe Manchin THE key figure that made sure the Biden Administration didnt completely flip governance on its ear by eliminating the filibuster. Listen to it in his own words - recounted from his book" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981406805503987749) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-23T17:06Z 1.9M followers, 152.2K engagements "8090 is looking for exceptional software engineers. Fill out the form below if you're interested in joining our team. Along with your application I want to hear about the most exceptional product you've built. Include a video walking me through the product the code and explain the most significant challenge you faced when working on it" [X Link](https://x.com/chamath/status/1981807995903197316) [@chamath](/creator/x/chamath) 2025-10-24T19:40Z 1.9M followers, 76.7K engagements
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@chamath
"As with all phases of the capital markets cycle there are the pioneers the fast followers mainstream practitioners and the laggards with each group bigger than the one before it. The issue here is that with 19k PE firms this asset class is firmly in the laggard bucket. The only thing that can correct this is distributions. But with few IPOs and without new capital coming into PE there are less opportunities to sell to other PE firmscreating a big negatively reflexive cycle downwards. Some big LP will soon call it and cut their allocation to PE making it ok for others to fast follow and do the"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-02T14:42Z 1.9M followers, 131K engagements
"Katie Porter would like to run the fifth largest economy in the world"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-07T23:53Z 1.9M followers, 898.5K engagements
"A reminder from Elon about the bitter lesson. The following coordination of machines and electrons will win: 1B AI chips X TW power 100M robots This is now all about capital speed and scale"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-09T15:53Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements
"The GOAT has spoken: No crying in the casino"
X Link @chamath 2025-04-05T01:12Z 1.9M followers, 511.3K engagements
"We made a big leap with Software Factory this week: We can now back-propagate from legacy code weve never seen into an accurate architecture blueprint (and PRD) in one shot. Then you can go forward with new features on legacy code adhering to the architecture. This is a critical feature for any large organization with millions/billions of lines of legacy code that you have to work with and cant just clean-sheet around. We are still early (read: this will get much much better over the next few iterations) but it is really coming together nicely"
X Link @chamath 2025-08-24T07:37Z 1.9M followers, 150.7K engagements
"At some point in the near future the largest power utility in America will be a company that a) has sold 10Ms of households the ability to generate their own electricity and b) uses an app and sensors to tie them all together as a distributed power utility"
X Link @chamath 2025-09-07T04:24Z 1.9M followers, 809.1K engagements
"3) Last week Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved to mandate a national digital ID by the end of this Parliament (targeting 2029). The Parliaments goal is to help combat illegal working and streamlining citizens access to vital government services. Government statistics note XX% of UK citizens never had passports while XX% have smartphones suggesting digital ID could reduce identity fraud while increasing access to social benefits. The backlash has been immediate with a Parliamentary petition against Digital ID cards reaching XXX million signatures within a couple days the largest in UK history"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-04T18:22Z 1.9M followers, 53.4K engagements
"Everything is market"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-10T15:50Z 1.9M followers, 229K engagements
"True. China is formidable but so is America. We need to have complete internal resiliency. The critical capabilities to support our society must not be gated by another country and their priorities"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T03:16Z 1.9M followers, 327.3K engagements
"What I Read This Week. 1) China Tightens Control over Minerals and Money On October 9th China added five heavy rare earths to its export-control list and requires licensing for processing equipment that will go into effect on December 1st. The move is framed as a safeguard to national security with some space carved out for applications in humanitarian aid. Anything else that is dual use with even XXX% value in their rare earths will need to submit relevant documents for approval. China is consolidating control upstream of every semiconductor fab AI data center robotics company defense"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T17:41Z 1.9M followers, 130.8K engagements
"Dont take it from me. Its harder to ignore though when coming from an energy goat"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T19:47Z 1.9M followers, 216.3K engagements
"Scientists are transplanting healthy mitochondria into damaged cells performing microscopic organelle transplants to address various life-threatening conditions and potentially extend lifespan as well. For example doctors at Boston Children's Hospital have extracted mitochondria from abdominal tissue and infused them into failing hearts increasing the survival rates of babies with heart damage from XX% to 80%. Similar approaches are being tested for stroke patients at the University of Washington while companies like Minovia Therapeutics are using these techniques to address genetic"
X Link @chamath 2025-04-07T00:28Z 1.9M followers, 134.8K engagements
"Just spoke to @NYSE and I asked them to reserve two possible tickers. Please choose the one you would like"
X Link @chamath 2025-06-20T00:02Z 1.9M followers, 476.5K engagements
"Go to 1:15 Katie Porter is multi-dimensionally ugly. Hard to do. Congrats Katie"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-09T04:07Z 1.9M followers, 358.3K engagements
"They are definitely going to trybut a XXX% China tariff by POTUS is a very smart response. With 20%+ youth unemployment in China the tariff attacks at the heart of a fragile Chinese economy"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T15:04Z 1.9M followers, 872K engagements
"Friend posted this in a group chat and my immediate though my was: These arent AI job losses. But they may very like be Elon/X job losses. He fired XX% of Twitter and the company is operating the same/better. Maybe many other companies see that and now also believe they can do something similar (albeit less extreme)"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-24T16:40Z 1.9M followers, 299.8K engagements
"Chinas CATL the worlds largest EV battery maker raised nearly $X billion in a secondary Hong Kong listing this week to fund its overseas expansion. The company plans to use the proceeds to accelerate construction of new factories in Hungary Spain and Germany building on its partnerships with European automakers like BMW and Stellantis. This marks a push for CATL to scale beyond China where it already supplies one in every three EV batteries worldwide and a growing share of grid storage systems. CATL has also expanded its presence in the U.S. through grid-scale deployments and a technology"
X Link @chamath 2025-05-26T17:26Z 1.9M followers, 4891 engagements
"Venture firms including Khosla Ventures General Catalyst and Thrive Capital are testing a new investment strategy involving acquiring mature low-tech service businesses and modernizing them with AI tools internally. These targets such as call centers accounting firms and homeowners associations offer steady cash flows and entrenched customer bases that could be made more efficient with internal AI tools and automation. General Catalyst has already backed seven such companies including Long Lake a platform rolling up HOAs which has raised $XXX million. Khosla Ventures is evaluating similar"
X Link @chamath 2025-05-26T17:26Z 1.9M followers, 65.6K engagements
"The marginal cost of compute is going to zero. The marginal cost of energy is going to zero. Plan accordingly"
X Link @chamath 2025-07-16T11:36Z 1.9M followers, 2.1M engagements
"China is not known for emotional decisions so take this at face value"
X Link @chamath 2025-07-24T15:04Z 1.9M followers, 4.6M engagements
"Terrible look for online sports gambling Individual States are poorly run by Governors and State Houses with very little financial acumen. So they run deficits or miss allocate capital and then turn to simple superficial ways to generate revenues like sports gambling. Turns out it creates negative societal consequences. In that way Sports Gambling is equivalent to legalization of marijuana in its corrosiveness to a healthy well functioning society"
X Link @chamath 2025-07-27T13:15Z 1.9M followers, 576.2K engagements
"Agreed. What actually happened was that we stopped valuing having a family and instead became hyper focused on individual goals. The myriad books courses content slogans over the past XX years all reinforced the same incentive: your fulfillment is largely from professional endeavors so double down and lean in. The byproduct was that having a family became secondary and conveyed less status. Unless we dismantle these laggard ideas and find incentives to celebrate and elevate family formation our birthrates will continue to fall"
X Link @chamath 2025-07-28T09:42Z 1.9M followers, 960.5K engagements
"Do this search for yourself and see the green sources vs the red sources. Now ask yourself if this kind of one sided censorship is the best way for you to get the unfiltered truth. It may be that Wikipedia is a massive psyop"
X Link @chamath 2025-09-30T02:09Z 1.9M followers, 15.3M engagements
"President Trump got Intel to give Team America XX% of itself at $X. An insane negotiation. All of this upside accrues to American taxpayers which is really incredible. Trump now has a better IRR than Buffett. Deal with it because its mathematically true"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-02T18:59Z 1.9M followers, 484.8K engagements
"I wonder if those that use Claude Code or the umpteen app-crappers that wrap Anthropic realize they are funding their own demise Only the biggest and well funded companies (like Anthropic) will be able to afford the operational complexity of meeting XX different sets of state AI regulations. This should be left to the Federal Government"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-14T18:23Z 1.9M followers, 318.6K engagements
"QT is over. Now what Probably rate cuts. Yet again Powell is behind the 8-ball. The number of self-inflicted wounds by the Fed is piling up"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-14T18:27Z 1.9M followers, 290.9K engagements
"Private credit is eating private equity. The implications are quite profound for the American economy. PE has had a very poor return profile over the past 5+ years. Very little DPI send back to LPs including me Meanwhile Private Credit hums along and generates great returns that are the same or better than PE and gives me cashflow. But if money flows out of PE and into PC where does PC invest as their PE customers retrench My suspicion is they move aggressively to compete w PE and fund companies to stay independent vs financing PE firms to do go-private transactions. This is healthy and good"
X Link @chamath 2025-05-05T17:52Z 1.9M followers, 839.8K engagements
"If this is even remotely true combined with everything else happening rn the only safe trade are hard assets and dare I say gold. Sheesh"
X Link @chamath 2025-05-29T18:51Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements
"Incredible that almost 58k people voted. I hope everyone that voted No feels seen. Now onto business. I got calls from many Wall Street and Crypto Titans yesterday. They all want in and their vote matters a lot to me so. I will probably do it. Maybe this time it will go better Who knows. The risks are clear though. The last time wasnt a success by any means. I will include this poll AND the community note in EVERY SEC filing possible. It will make an excellent disclosure about the risks and is not short of irony. So what kind of company do you guys want No crying in the casino"
X Link @chamath 2025-06-19T16:45Z 1.9M followers, 1.7M engagements
"Non Farm Payrolls are total garbage so I asked Grok: Hey Grok go look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website for their non farm payrolls data. Tell me how many times their original forecasts have been revised since Jan 2020. And of those revisions how many times the data was revised up versus down. Categorize this during the Biden versus Trump presidencies. Bottom line is that BLS isnt so much conspiratorial as it is inadequate in its approach. They are all over the place and add little directional signal. They constantly revise and in both directions. The sampling techniques they use are"
X Link @chamath 2025-08-02T13:10Z 1.9M followers, 4M engagements
"This is not social justice reform when someone like this walks the streets. This is chaos. Listen to this father"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-01T16:17Z 1.9M followers, 1.6M engagements
"An important feature of Grokipedia will be The Big Diff List: A list of the most manipulated Wikipedia pages (from the Grokipedia truth baseline) so that Google search deboosts those pages from search AND Common Crawl excludes them from training data. In other words if the human editors and their funders at Wikipedia are engaged in misinformation and content manipulation Grokipedia can hold them accountable and shine a bright light on it so those that feed Wikipedia its traffic act"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-05T15:47Z 1.9M followers, 369.1K engagements
"Google a private for-profit software company has had five Nobel Laureates work for them. Most universities have had none"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-07T20:44Z 1.9M followers, 509.1K engagements
"When geopolitical & socio-economic tensions rise both people & nations turn to hard assets. One big buyer in particular has been Beijing. China has been swapping Treasuries for gold for years lifting reserves to over 74m ounces. This is a reflection of both state policy and popular sentiment: hedging against dollar risk sanctions and Chinas own shaky property and stock markets. Its a signal of rising uncertainty in the world"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-08T17:32Z 1.9M followers, 660.9K engagements
"The simple solution for hyperscalers is as follows: Option A: agree to a higher rate base with the utility so that you can guarantee people in the local geography wont see increased electricity rates. Option B: agree to pay for resi solar + storage for local citizens so they wont see increased electricity rates. Either way if the hyperscalers dont use their gobs of free cashflow to cushion the inflation of electricity rates you should expect to see a lot more pushback"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T04:03Z 1.9M followers, 291.2K engagements
"One general and one specific takeaway from this about politics elections and leaders: Candidates win elections on hope for the future. As such it has largely been (and likely will remain) true that popularity is maximal once elected and then wanes. Its true in the UK and many other nations going back 40+ years absent some exogenous event. Kier Starmer specifically is performing so horribly that he may go down as the Neville Chamberlain of our era - running a government defined by catastrophic misjudgment on every level. That is quite something"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T15:23Z 1.9M followers, 122.1K engagements
"I think its the difference between inherited vs evolved differentiation. People can excuse people who were born different. They can jump they can sing I cannot. Being the rationalization. Its much harder however for people to confront someone who was born the same as them but committed to work development and risk taking and then succeeded. These are non-immutable traits and are available for everyone to express. Those that do and are rewarded however tend to alienate the umpteen masses that cant get out of their own way"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T19:45Z 1.9M followers, 205.1K engagements
"To be very clear Trump did not kill solar. In fact the best run solar businesses are thriving post BBB. What Trump did precisely is kill a bunch of Biden-era subsidies that were being taken advantage of by many companies to pervert a free market from well functioning to dysfunctional. Without subsidies the worst run companies in solar are rapidly going out of business. Its now possible to compare coal oil natural gas and solar on a mostly like-for-like basis. This is leading to more overall capital and more investment not less in energy production. It will mean that some projects however no"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-11T20:21Z 1.9M followers, 402.2K engagements
"An observation about TradFi vs Crypto. Whales in TradFi would put big trades on and hope their directional bias would leak and then become the market expectation. In DeFi whales put big trades on and their actions are immediately syndicated and amplified automatically on social media causing their directional bias to become the market expectation"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-12T16:11Z 1.9M followers, 383.9K engagements
"Oldie but a goodie. I did this almost five years agoas the stock approaches $XXX this was definitively one of the few SPAC deals of that era that worked No crying in the casino"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-14T00:09Z 1.9M followers, 329.6K engagements
"Great 1:1 fireside chat. @Benioff @DavidSacks"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-15T00:02Z 1.9M followers, 209.8K engagements
".@OrlandoBravoTB is one of the goats. Hes singularly focused on DPI and has built ThomaBravo into an incredible platform. He also has an inspiring story from growing up in Puerto Rico to climbing the top of the PE mountain. Worth a watch"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-15T16:18Z 1.9M followers, 169.7K engagements
"Google was about to lose a vote by the Indianapolis City council and withdrew a proposal for a $1B data center. Microsoft pulled a similar project in Wisconsin based on community pushback. Are these isolated incidents or the beginning of a trend If the data below is accurate then we should expect that more local communities will pushback to stop data center buildouts in their region if it spikes electricity prices so much. A solution however is for these hyperscalers to use their robust free cashflow to go into local areas and pay for solar+storage or pay for the electricity for every"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-15T22:12Z 1.9M followers, 1.1M engagements
"Watch the interviewbuy the book I bought it and am excited to read it. Well done @andrewrsorkin 🥂"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-16T16:33Z 1.9M followers, 191.8K engagements
"Marc is showing the way. More cops on the street enforcing the law is a good thing. It lets law abiding folks go about their lives in peace and security"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-16T22:11Z 1.9M followers, 425.4K engagements
"Useful new service if you have a history of breast cancer or are a woman over XX and haven't had a mammogram in the past year"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-16T23:20Z 1.9M followers, 253.5K engagements
"I have been an investor in @PalmettoEnergy for many years now. They are the fastest growing residential energy company in America. Their offer is simple: get off the treadmill of rising utility rates in your area become more resilient and upgrade your infrastructure to best-gen equipment and save XX% or more while doing it"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-18T17:25Z 1.9M followers, 131.9K engagements
"What I Read This Week. 1) On Monday JPMorgan Chase announced a sweeping plan to deploy $XXX trillion in financing over the next decade toward what it calls security and resiliency. The categories are a blend of industrial strategy national defense and infrastructure modernization. It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals products and manufacturing all of which are essential for our national security It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way: excessive regulations bureaucratic delay"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-18T17:52Z 1.9M followers, 107.9K engagements
"Links to sources and other articles/X I read are on substack:"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-18T17:55Z 1.9M followers, 49.3K engagements
"Huh Starbucks is a retail sugar company. If he is serious here is what it would mean to be all in on AI: A) all drinks made by robots by 2030 (Optimus or Figure) B) deprecating legacy Software Industrial Complex licenses (SBUX is probably paying billions per year in software licenses) C) all corporate software rebuilt using a modern SDLC (corollary to B rebuild everything to be custom easy to maintain and migrate) D) add Starlink to every location give away Wifi cut prices by XX% and grow E) RIF XX% headcount if A-D dont work"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-19T16:02Z 1.9M followers, 772.6K engagements
"Here are two very important charts about the current AI boom. Chart 1: Distribution Matters Open AI is still the clear leader but interestingly they are loosing percentage share as the market grows. This is normal for a category leader but its curious who they are losing share to. Its not really to other startups but incumbents with existing massive distribution. This means that Google has a huge runway ahead of itself as their models and services become better. It also means that when/if Meta gets their act together they will be able to gain share quickly. Lastly it likely means that xAI"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-19T20:15Z 1.9M followers, 698.4K engagements
"@bruhmatrix No. In fact they support what we tell our customers: Focus on a governed opinionated SDLC. That is what our software factory gives them. App crappers are just next-gen toolware sprawl after SaaS toolware sprawl"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-19T23:59Z 1.9M followers, 22.2K engagements
"Its not the worst idea"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-20T16:45Z 1.9M followers, 194K engagements
"If the market clearing price for an accurate M&A or IPO model is $150/hr why do we pay 3-6% of the deal value"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-21T16:04Z 1.9M followers, 1M engagements
"Amazons total number of deployed robots has 66x in XX years. The robotics program began after its 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems for $775m. It aimed at automating warehouse picking and sorting. What started as a logistics efficiency project has evolved into one of the world's largest fleets of autonomous systems"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-21T17:20Z 1.9M followers, 336.8K engagements
"We recently released a primer on how Amazon became the backbone of ecommerce and the internet as yesterdays AWS outage reminded the world. Check out my Substack if you want to learn with me:"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-21T17:28Z 1.9M followers, 43.4K engagements
"First you build a product. Then the good ones build a platform"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-22T14:39Z 1.9M followers, 243.5K engagements
"Maybe you will live to XX vs XX but are you happier now"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-22T14:42Z 1.9M followers, 696.5K engagements
"Yes. Alcohol does have a negative feedback loop that is obvious to you (wake up with a ripping hangover for example). Cannabis negative feedback loop on you is more obvious to those around you (you become a zombie). Im not a huge fan of alcohol tbh but it has better checks and balances (including labeling and toxicity) than cannabis does"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-22T16:01Z 1.9M followers, 12.6K engagements
"We are witnessing the slow-motion destruction of one of the greatest cities in the world"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-23T00:19Z 1.9M followers, 336K engagements
"@humrashid Brilliant kids are visibly brilliant even younger than kindergarten. Not knowing that though isnt your fault - it just means youre average at best"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-23T14:19Z 1.9M followers, 3973 engagements
"This is an important discussion with Sen Joe Manchin THE key figure that made sure the Biden Administration didnt completely flip governance on its ear by eliminating the filibuster. Listen to it in his own words - recounted from his book"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-23T17:06Z 1.9M followers, 152.2K engagements
"8090 is looking for exceptional software engineers. Fill out the form below if you're interested in joining our team. Along with your application I want to hear about the most exceptional product you've built. Include a video walking me through the product the code and explain the most significant challenge you faced when working on it"
X Link @chamath 2025-10-24T19:40Z 1.9M followers, 76.7K engagements
/creator/twitter::3291691/posts